Trade reviews
In a year when relatively few deadline moves happened, the M’s were fairly active — and reviews are starting to come in. Jayson Stark lists the M’s as one of two “sellers who did it right.”
It may be true that the Mariners dangled so many players on their roster, it was tough at times even for clubs dealing with them to figure out who was available for what price.
But in the end, Seattle did just fine — unloading three replaceable pieces (Randy Winn, Villone, Miguel Olivo) for two new catchers (Yorvit Torrealba and Miguel Ojeda) and a bunch of fresh arms (Bazardo, Flannery, Jesse Foppert and Nathaniel Mateo).
“I thought they did all right,” said one scout. “They got rid of some money. They cut their losses. They got kids back. And they got some arms back.”
The most intriguing arm is Foppert, who was once the Giants’ top pitching prospect and is inching back from Tommy John surgery. The jury is still out, but as one scout put it: “Everyone else comes back from that operation. I don’t see why he wouldn’t.”
Some reports from other bloggers are out now, too. Fish fans are happy to get Villone, even if they’re also high on Bazardo. Speaking of our man Yorman, check out Jeff Sullivan’s take on him if you haven’t already.
McCovey Chronicles on the Winn deal: “It isn’t often that a trade can help your favorite team, and still leave you discouraged.” Fair enough, if a bit Morrissey-inflected.
Comments
54 Responses to “Trade reviews”
I’m not usually a fan of Jayson Stark, but any good publicity the M’s get is great. (Brings more fans)
Bottom line… Bavasi did some things. We’ve had years before when the team needed to do some things and the FO sat on their thumbs.
I don’t know if this will bring more fans. I think we are looking at least until 2007 before this team is even above .500 again.
I think things went as well as could be expected. Clearly it would have been nice if we could have moved some more players to make room for new guys but considering what we gave up and what we got, it’s a plus situation for the M’s by all accounts (salary reductions, roster space and new player potential).
Boone’s latest release from Minnesota kinda sums up the state of some of our player values. Spezio included (ouch)… That’s a lot of money for guys that did little to win games this year.
Still though, I whenever I hear Bavasi talk I always feel like he thinks he’s being inconvenienced to have to explain what he is doing or how enthusiastic he might be about player’s potential. For someone that signed Spezio and Aurillia with eyes wide open, you’d think he’d be willing to put a value on players he got in return instead of just acting like it’s a complete crap shoot.
It was comforting to read that Miguel Cabrera thinks Bazardo “will be a good one” someday. If just one of the 4 pitchers comes up and makes positive contributions next year you have to consider these trades a good thing.
I’ll make note of one of the most important pieces of this deadline: Bavasi traded value for value. None of the teams we traded with at this deadline are liable to think they got ripped off. Both sides have benefitted from these deals. (Well, I’m not so sure that we didn’t take the Padres on the Olivo deal, but the jury’s still out.)
Since Bavasi made sure that both sides got what they wanted (we got youth, and the other guys got experienced talent for the pennant race), then other teams are willing to come back and talk with him again.
Bavasi showed two things: First, he can work on filling the M’s needs, and second, he can identify another team’s needs and work a fair deal. There’s a lot of value in that by itself.
I am pleased with what Bavasi was able to accomplish, especially when you consider how quiet things were this year. The M’s were the busiest team.
I am still bummed that the M’s couldn’t move Guardado. I really hoped that Boston would come through at the last minute, and send us two of Jon Papelbon, Jon Lester, or Anibal Sanchez. Even Papelbon and a lesser prospect would have been worth it.
The best thing about these moves are the financial aspects. The M’s should have a lot of cash coming off the books now. From the figures on the site, the M’s should have a minimum of 30.3 million coming off the books after this season (assuming player options for Winn and not including arbitration). If Guardado is dealt in the offseason or both his options aren’t exercised, the M’s will have even more cash to work with.
I know that this free agent class isn’t all that exciting, but there are guys like AJ Burnett and Brad Penny who would be big pluses to the M’s. I am sure that they will be looking to add a starter through trades as well. And hopefully Daisuke Matsuzaka will be available (assuming he is healthy).
Hopefully Snelling will work out in LF. If so, the M’s could try to go with Torrealba as the stop-gap starting catcher (with Ojeda or Rivera as backup), some arrangement of Lopez, Betancourt, and Morse at SS/2B, and spend all their resources on starting pitching. A lefty power hitter would also be a nice addition, but there are really only older guys available this off-season (like Brian Giles).
Hopefully, the M’s can scrap together 4 starters from what they already have. Felix, Madritsch, Foppert, Campillo, Franklin, Meche, Livingston, and Piniero are all pretty untested or inconsistent. Hopefully, four from that group will be adequate. If so, the addition of a guy like Burnett would be a huge upgrade.
I agree with #5. Bavasi got younger, less expensive talent for our expendible major league players. I don’t think anyone got “fleeced.” Even San Diego is probably happy at the moment, as they may be the only team in baseball more desperate for a major-league ready catcher than the Mariners.
Boone’s latest release from Minnesota kinda sums up the state of some of our player values.
I don’t see this on any news site. Do you have a link?
Certainly more desperate…they’re in a playoff race, after all.
#8. Oh sorry, Rotoworld has it listed that Boone was told by the Twins that it would happend today and Boone replied by saying he agrees based on his stinky play thus far.
I wonder what San Diego would have given up for Torrealba if presumeably the Giants would have traded within their division?
I hope Winn does well in SF, as noted by many others he was a good player, classy on/off field, quiet/mature etc etc. I am a bit concerned about the cavernous center field and swirling winds at PacBell Park though. Has his defense improved enough this year that he’ll do OK in center?
He’ll do well down there. The Giants fans all feel like he is just “coming home” since he’s from the area and a good athlete from his college days. It appears he has the support of Alou. Those winds will be interesting for him but I expect him to be a Giant for at least 2006.
Re: the Boone announcement, I’ll put the over/under at 10 minutes before the first brain dead caller to KJR phones in saying we should pick him up.
Presuming the M’s don’t pick up the team option on Eddie and he returns for around $4.5 mill, I think it might have been wise to keep him for 2006. Yes, you can point to 2007 as the year the M’s return to .500 ball, but baseball is a funny sport. Push the right buttons and the M’s could compete. And a solid closer at $4.5 is not that bad. We have no idea for sure what shape his shoulder is in. At 35, is a dropoff guaranteed? No. At this point I’m still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. And if the M’s are competitive next year and Guardado’s shoulder is fine, then we’re going to be thankful that Sherrill and Putz are probably the left and right handed setup guys instead of one of them being the closer.
link to St. Paul Pioneer Press on Boone’s release
#14.
It wasn’t that long ago that Bavasi himself was saying “Boone deserves to play (instead of being benched)” and that Boone was a great contributor and possibly a hall of famer so apparently that was what was motivating the M’s to keep Boone as long as they did… I think Bavasi is too “traditional” (or sentimental) in his thinking sometimes… Just like the fan that will call KJR within 10 minutes (so I’m going with the under).
If Moyer and Guardado are the two guys most likely to have been traded but were not, then I don’t think we can be unhappy they’re still here. Both are winners and both positively influence the rest of the organization. Both are able to make the M’s winners in 2006 and beyond.
Overall I give Bavasi at least a B+. If you count the other roster changes, I think it’s an A week for the Eraserhead.
I don’t think we got enough for Winn, but there’s a chance there at least. It’s not a glaringly stupid move; I think Foppert is a legitimate risk. Torrealba is of course a placeholder who’s unlikely to impress anybody in Safeco. Foppert, though, has an upside as good as anyone in our system bar Felix, though of course his potential downside is extreme as well. A fair deal, not a stunner, but not too bad. If Foppert recovers completely, this could turn out to be massive steal.
The value of unclogging the outfield situation has a lot of value too. It’s easy to get hung up on player A VORP vs. player B VORP and forget about putting together a TEAM. This deal meets our specific needs.
The Olivo deal I like a lot. It’s sad to give up on Olivo, but we gotta face facts; he’s been worse than terrible, and we’re lucky to get ANYTHING for him. Ojeda could turn out to be an outstanding backup C — he’s no great shakes as a hitter but he does absolutely murder lefties; I say “platoon partner”. Mateo is a potentially very useful rubber arm in the pen; he could probably outpitch Thornton starting today.
The Villone deal is awesome. Villone’s a nice guy to have, but relievers like him are all over the place, practically free for the taking. But Bazardo is a serious starting prospect. I like him better than Foppert. It’s unlikely that we will hit the jackpot with BOTH Foppert and Bazardo, but I think it’s better than even that we will with ONE of them; and one stud starter in ’06 or ’07 and beyond is well worth Winn and Villone. And again that is not only value but makes us a better team, as our current crew of starting pitchers is turning into compost before our eyes.
Sele gone? Excellent. Hasegawa gone? Fine, that’s not a problem. Sherrill can more than replace him. Snelling back? Fantastic. Betancourt? No better time to start finding out than now.
What it looks like to me is Bavasi finally getting a handle on what he has to deal with here, and learning how to put a team together. Sorting through the bin of parts we have hasn’t been a very fun or fruitful venture lately, but we have a lot more options lined up in more promising positions now than a week ago.
I still think we’re one big bomber away from contending, but maybe we’ll get enough from marginal improvements at LF and 3B, and Sexson can keep it up, and it’ll be enough.
Not trading Guardado for something, anything, is what keeps my grade from being A+. Not that I don’t like Guardado, but his perceived value (“established closer”) is so much higher than his actual value (“good relief pitcher”) that it should have been possible to make a very profitable deal.
I’m just hoping Guardado’s elbow holds up–well, either that or that whichever team claims him when we’re doing the mass pass-through-waivers bit is willing to make Bavasi a deal he’ll find acceptable; as much as I like the guy, I really want him in someone else’s uniform when his arm comes apart for good.
And then, of course, we need to deal with the Dodgers for Yhency Brazoban to replace him . . .
Moyer. Hernandez. Madritsch. Meche. Nageotte. Blackley. Piñeiro. Livingston. Bazardo. Foppert. Baek. Franklin. Soriano.
13 guys on the roster (at least) have at least some chance to make a decent Mariners rotation in 2005. From these guys the M’s should be able to fill the 4/5 slots as well as a pretty good bullpen. Only Piñeiro is guaranteed to be obviously too expensive at this point.
The key question in my mind is, how many of the above have a decent chance to be a 1/2/3 starter in 2005? Who will become pitchers you’d want starting in the playoffs? Everything the M’s do in August and September should be geared toward finding out. In my less-than-well-informed mind, I see the following ROUGH probabilities: Hernandez 40%, Madritsch 25%, Moyer 20%, Meche 15%, Piñeiro 10%, all others 5% (except Franklin 2%). look forward to reading Dave’s updated thoughts along these lines.
FWIW, my probabilities add up to just over one top-of-the-rotation starter, if the M’s aren’t struck by particularly good or bad luck.
If the 2B/SS/C situations work out with current personnel, one trade (IFer+OFer+LHP+RHP for an SP) and one FA signing (SP) should put the M’s in contention. IMHO, Bavasi’s put the team in pretty good position.
Damn, that should “be decent starter in 2006.”
I love the Villone deal because Bazardo looks like a keeper.
Winn we got more from SF than we would have gotten from the Yanks imo so I cant complain there especially with the potential that Foppert has
Steve Thornton said: “Not trading Guardado for something, anything, is what keeps my grade from being A+. Not that I don’t like Guardado, but his perceived value (â€Âestablished closerâ€Â) is so much higher than his actual value (â€Âgood relief pitcherâ€Â) that it should have been possible to make a very profitable deal.”
FWIW, this morning Stark was saying that the combination of Guardado’s contract (money, closing incentives) and shoulder injury led to fewer inquiries and lowered perceived value.
There was a fine rant last night by one of the GameNight hosts about the failure to move Guardado, which would have been more effective if the host had actually known Guardado’s name (Gardaaado?) and if the reasoning went beyond the ‘we want to talk about an exciting trade dammit’ mentality…
Moyer, with a large contract, and Guardado, with a large contract and a high-$$ ’06 option, could conceivably clear waivers, so an August deal might still be possible.
re: 22
Sorry, I just don’t see it. The M’s are, by most measures, the worst offensive team in the league. Even if you’re right about the pitching somehow working out, they’ll still blow next year.
Unless Felix turns into the second coming of Koufax right out of the chute, Madritsch and Soriano return to form from his injuries, Meche and/or Pineiro figure out their problems and one or two of the others actually become reliable starters, I’m afraid we’re in for a long rebuilding process.
The M’s have, and will likely continue to have, way below league average production at C, 2B, SS, LF and CF. That’s assuming Beltre finally figures it out.
I don’t blame Bavasi for getting the M’s into this mess. He seems to be working hard to dig them out of the hole, but it’s gonna take more than a few months to polish the gigantic turd this franchise has become.
I agree with #27, which is why I’d have liked to see some offensive prospects somewhere in the mix of all those guys we got in the last couple of days.
The problem with having 13 kinda ML ready pitching prospects, most of them coming off of arm surgery, is it’s very hard to give them all a fair chance to compete for a job. Some of those guys are going to go to waste, almost guaranteed.
Let’s not assume the dealing is done. Each year, because of the complicated structuring of contracts, more players get through waivers and more substantive deals get done in August.
petec, while I agree with you to the extent I think the M’s need more power from their OF, I think the model of “three good starters, three good sluggers and three good outfielders to a large home outfield” is working pretty well for the CWS and should work for the Mariners. As long as the M’s can get decent OBPs from their OF and slightly-below-ML-average offense from 2B/SS/C, they should be OK on offense. And I’ll take Beltre/Sexson/Ibañez over Dye/Konerko/Everett.
#15 Rusty said “Presuming the M’s don’t pick up the team option on Eddie and he returns for around $4.5 mill, I think it might have been wise to keep him for 2006.”
After not trading Guardado yesterday I think it’s a given that the M’s will pick up the $6.25 mil option for ’06 (unless he gets hurt before the end of the season). If he’s healthy and his numbers are similar to what they are now, Guardado isn’t likely to excercise his player option ($4.25 mil) as he’ll be able to get more money and years on the open market.
Since Eddie seems to love it in Seattle (and the M’s love him), the other alternative instead of picking up the option would be for the Mariners to work a deal to sign Guardado to a mutually agreeable contract extension, perhaps one that protects the club in case he’s on the DL for 60+ days due to the rotator cuff (much like the deal Pudge signed with the Tigers).
The model may need to be the Indians from a decade ago, where you have a young team you stick with through a couple of lean years until they mature and reach their peak years at about the same time. Add it a few well-chosen free agents and they may be pretty good a few years down the road.
Three good starters would be great, but the M’s have zero. Felix should be one, but finding the other two will be a matter of either spending a load of money, or having some unprecedented good fortune with the organization’s pitchers.
And, I’m not sold on any of the young position players. Reed and Snelling may become better than average OFers, but I don’t see a potential all star anywhere. I hope I’m wrong.
Baseball prospectus is offering a free preview of their content until Wednesday, so check out the articles on the trades.
They are pretty scathing on the Winn/Olivo deals. Can’t say I disagree them esp. with regards to Foppert who does seem to have some of that Salkeld smell to him, as people have mentioned previously.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4283#SEA
They like the Villone deal a lot.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4283#SEA
oops BP reviews of the Winn/Olivo trades are at
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4278#SEA
Do you ever get the feeling that Chris Kahrl is so busy being self-consciously clever that even she has no idea what she’s saying? I sure can’t decipher her nonsense.
35: Yes.
“At this rate, the crew of U.S.S. Mariner is likely to form its own minuteman group, staking out the Tacoma city limits to stand guard against Borders incursions almost certain to happen again as long as this team is stuffing Torrealbas and Ojedas into the tools of ignorance and saying “good enough.”
What is THAT?!
She misses the point entirely. I mean, the logic process that allows her to come to some of these conclusions is more messed up than my thought process when it comes to stuff, and that’s saying something.
Yes, the “Borders” patrol bit is a little much.
OF course Jayson Stark also said in his KJR interview this morning with Mitch (obviously no link since I heard it in the car):
Stark: Moyer wanted to get something for waiving his trade option…I’ll leave that open to whatever interpretation you want to make.
Mitch: You mean money?
Stark: I’m not saying anymore.
a few minutes later mitch’s sidekick comes on the air after talking to Stark off the air and says: basically what I got out of what Stark just told me is Moyer wanted an extra year on his contract.
Mitch: well that goes against the “just spend two months there and we’ll resign you” theory
Sidekick: that’s what I got out of it.
What the..Chris Kahrl’s a woman? When did this happen?!
Stark was being so deliberately vague and obtuse that it was hard to know if he was implying that Moyer would want another year from the team he went to, he wanted the M’s to wink-wink that he’d be re-signed by them after the season ended or that he wanted a jet to fly him home to see the kids on the weekends…
What the..Chris Kahrl’s a woman? When did this happen?!
That’s a complicated question probably best answered by Ms. Kahrl, though there are links out there that will explain this.
However, in the interests of completeness, the answer to that question can be:
- It’s always been so
- About a year-and-something back
- Not yet
Depending on your interpretation of events. And with that, I consider this topic closed.
Can we still talk about her writing style … and substance?
Sorry, I only meant the topic of gender, which was what I tried to answer there.
So, DMZ, what do you make of her puzzling sort-of swipe at USSM?
Any Press = Good Press.
I didn’t read it as a swipe at all. My interpretation was “Fanatical fans might want to arm themselves and close Tacoma’s borders to keep him from rejoining the organization.”
Which I think says that CK has a much lower opinion and a higher opinion of the importance of Borders than I do (as I don’t really care if he rejoins Tacoma, and actually wouldn’t mind since it means there’s a much higher chance I get to have a beer with him), but it’s a compliment to the site in she’s implying that we’re trying to be protectors of the franchise the team needs to save themselves from themselves.
Which is… I mean, clearly she hasn’t read the game threads.
Add my own ditto to 35, 36 – Karhl is sharp, but her style has a Fog Factor worse than any government publication that I’ve ever read.
That said, I sheepishly admit to challenging her this spring:
>CK, writing in B Pro: It’s a thoroughly conventional team bound for >the formerly conventional spot for all Mariner teams: last place.
Thanks for taking the time to >write in
>
>Me, via email: Perhaps, Chris, but count on being reminded if they >avoid that fate.
>
>CK’s email reply: I wouldn’t expect anything less. Besides, I >understand that one can season crow pretty nicely, just as long as >you don’t get too fond of the taste.
Now, I just have to find a palatable recipe myself.
I think the best move Bavasi made was one he didn’t. Though I’d like to see Guardado moved, I would have wanted it for maximum return. Bavasi obviously couldn’t get the deal he wanted, and refused to send him anywhere for anything less than he expected. This, to me, shows Bavasi wouldn’t back down, and I think will gain him more respect when dealing. Had Bavasi backed down and taken something of lesser value for Guardado (especially after the Winn and Villone deals set the bar so high) it would have showed some weakness in what Bavasi was attempting to do.
#40 I was curious and found the following link — which should explain this for anyone else interested…
http://www.myhusbandbetty.com/?m=200404&paged=2
The BP reviews of the M’s trades with SF and SD are pretty awful.
Where did Kahrl get the idea that Randy Winn had a ton of trade
value — and that other teams thought he could play center field? Everything I’ve heard is that Bavasi wanted Sean Henn and Scott Proctor from the Yankees and was turned down and that New York wasn’t sure Winn could handle CF in Yankee Stadium. I’m happier with what the M’s got from the Giants than if we’d gotten Henn and Proctor. We needed a catcher who could catch the ball (Torrealba) and we needed a pitching prospect with the potential to be more than a back of the rotation guy (Foppert). It’s a gamble but definitely one worth taking.
And blaming the trading of Miguel Olivo on the acquisition of Torrealba is outright stupid. If the M’s wanted to keep Olivo they could have kept him and Torrealba (and sent down Wiki). The Mariners traded Olivo because he sucks and because he has sucked for 13+ months as a Mariner and the organization was convinced that he was not going to make it in Seattle. He’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and they figured if they weren’t going to tender him a contract in December then they may as well get something for him.
The M’s did everything they could, including having an extra coach (Roger Hansen) traveling with the team the entire last month just to work with Olivo. It wasn’t working and it wasn’t going to work. In 312 at-bats over 104 games with Seattle Olivo hit .176. No major league team puts up with that kind of production at any position, even if you’re a perennial Gold Glover and Olivo was far from that (28 passed balls in 268 career games vs. 3 passed balls for Torrealba in 208 career games). I’m just shocked that a team in the middle of a pennant race not only traded for him but immediately declared him their #1 catcher. I know the Padres are desperate for a catcher with Hernandez out, but that’s just wishful thinking that Olivo will be the answer for them.
Actually BP’s review of the Mariners side of the trade with SF was awful, but so was their review of SF’s side of the trade. I know it was two different writers, but it can’t be both ways.
I’m more curious to know about Kahrl’s contention that Foppert’s mechanics are “awful”, a “mechanical mess”, when in the paper today he was described as “mechanically perfect”. The accompanying photo isn’t much to go by, and it’s not even dated, but he looks like he’s in good position to me. Glove in the right place, head focused on the plate, shirt popping with the thrust forward.
So who can tell me about Foppert’s mechanics for real?
From the San Diego Union-Tribune re the Olivo trade: “The Mariners again proved a handy trade partner for the Padres. In return for Olivo, Seattle accepted 30-year-old Miguel Ojeda, a shaky defender who was no longer in San Diego’s plans, and Nathanel Mateo, a fringe pitching prospect who was bypassed by 29 clubs in last year’s Rule V draft. The deal also was surprising in that Ojeda is guaranteed $375,000 next season, while Olivo, 27, has no guaranteed money past this season.” Who got screwed? Kevin Towers is shrewd and I’m afraid the Ms may have gotten a bunch of nothing for a guy who all of a sudden is hitting and well above average defensively.