Mariner offensive production by position
These are raw (not park-adjusted) stats for Mariner production at each position.
Catcher
M’s: .198/.224/.304
AL: .252/.309/.384
Olivo kills this category, but Borders didn’t help. That Wiki Gonzalez is driving this position’s stats back up to normalacy shows how badly this position’s been hurt this year.
First base
M’s: .271/.366/.542
AL: .271/.342/.454
Go Sexson.
Second base
M’s: .236/.289/.361
AL: .268/.325/.397
Boone and Lopez both turned this into an offensive sinkhole. If you put the 2005 Bloomquist in there full time, you’d be giving up 30 pts of slugging for 30 pts of on-base percentage (by pumping up the average).
Shortstop
M’s: .268/.327/.360
AL: .278/.333/.404
Wilson Valdez drives this down, Morse’s red-hot start brings it back up. We don’t know what we’d get out of Betancourt, but offense is only half the game (as the Jeff Huson fan club would remind you).
Third base
M’s: .251/.296/.401
AL: .268/.333/.427
Beltre, you’re killing me. You hit for that month, I don’t want to believe that’s a fluke, but jeeeeeeeeeez.
Left field
M’s: .267/.335/.392
AL: .278/.333/.435
This is what happens when you knock a chunk of power out of a guy without much power. Not a good season for Randy. Scary thought for the day: if you think Snelling’s going to be a 35 double, 10-15 home run guy who hits for a high average and takes his walks, well.. that’s Winn’s good years here, 2002-2003.
Center field
M’s: .257/.318/.351
AL: .273/.326/.412
I figured that as a high-contact guy with some power, Reed would have downs but at some point this year would rip off a 20-game tear where he hit .400/.450/.700. I’m still hoping. Bloomquist’s started 12 games in center so far.
Right field
M’s: .301/.346/.429
AL: .275/.338/.459
To compete offensively with his peers at the position, Ichiro needs to hit for a lot more average than he’s doing now. Hitting .320, you can make the argument he’s above-average overall, but he’s got to hit .330+ to be a really good contributor. Even the Ichiro-having-a-down-year stats would look good for a center fielder, though… forget I said anything.
Comments
46 Responses to “Mariner offensive production by position”
Good post DMZ!
Wow. Ouch.
What about DH?
I only wanted to look at positions, where you’re making a defense/offense tradeoff. I could look that up if people are particularly interested.
Great post…looks like there are plenty of holes that need to be adressed.
If I could add one thing, it’d be how much we’re paying to get what we’re getting. Boone was awful and it cost us an arm and a leg to get that from him. Sexson is playing well, > .900 OPS, and we’re all familiar with his contract (great price for this year, but the contract has more expensive years in the future). Etc, etc.
I just found out Bucky played an A game with the Inland Empire yesterday.
He may be a nice player coming off the bench (better than Spiezio anyway!).
And he may play Dh against LHP with Raoul in left and Doyle in center.
Doyle can’t play center.
8 You’re right.
But Maybe he can play some right and Ichiro can move to center.
Anyway he will be a better option from the bench than the guy we have right now and his 059 avg.
Re: Beltre
Beltre’s current EQA of .258 is somewhere between the 10th and 25th percentile in his PECOTA projection, a lot closer to 10th than 25th. So, that would make me think we could expect an uptick in performance from him.
On the other hand, looking at Beltre’s stats year-by-year makes me start humming “which of these things is not like the other.” I’m going to have to lean towards June being more of a fluke than a sign of things to come.
Snelling’s got a great arm, he could play in right.
The other thing to consider is that in the current crop of guys, Jones and Tui are probably going to end up as better fits off shortstop and probably in the outfield. So there’s some depth at the position beyond what’s immediately apparant at the uper levels of the minors.
In regards to my own comment above, I just read the recently posted USSM FAQ and after reading it, I can see more readily why Derek is expressing hope that June wasn’t just a fluke. So, in retrospect, I guess I’d say that Beltre’s PECOTA is probably more indicative of his future performance than my glances at his year-by-year stats, and that I wasn’t aware that this discussion comes up so often here that it merits inclusion in the frequently asked questions.
I would like to see the conversion of Adam Jones to CF at once; this has been on my mind for some time.
If Betancourt and Cabrera weren’t in the organization, it would reasonable to leave Adam at SS, and ‘let him develop,’ even if he wasn’t going to stay at the position for more than a few years in the bigs. But realistically, there are other guys ahead of him. Yunie All-Court is already _here_ and will be for at least a year or more before Jones arrives. CF is a skill position; you don’t learn it in a dozen games. Getting off on the right foot; taking the right angle; etc., etc. Jones is likely going to the outfield, and he has the athelticism and arm to excel in CF. So let’s get him there, now.
. . . Because the Ms _need_ a CFer of the future. I don’t think Reed is that man: he has fourth OFer written all over him. Reed hustles into good defense; that’s a plus. With the bat, though, he’s the next Sean Burroughs, and that’s not a compliment. He has shown no power over nearly a full season’s games in the bigs, and has nothing in his minor league performance to suggest he’s going to develop much, either. At the same time, he doesn’t walk enough to be an asset in getting on base, nor is he particularly adept as a basestealer. As a back-up, Reed’s primary offensive asset, the ability to make contact, helps. But he’s not bringing enough to the plate to be a long term solution.
Jones apprenticing in CF, his position of the future; Reed filling in, or filling out a trade: do it now.
Great post, Derek. I’m just curious though, roughly speaking, how much would you adjust Avg/OBP/Slg for playing half the games in Safeco? Looking at the raw numbers is interesting, but for all the press Safeco gets for being a pitcher’s park, would the adjustment be enough to not make the M’s look so horrible (they’re bad, but are they really that bad)? Or maybe, posting this with home & away splits if dealing with park effects is a pain?
Gah, previous post should say, “enough to make the M’s not look so horrible”.
Scary thought for the day: if you think Snelling’s going to be a 35 double, 10-15 home run guy who hits for a high average and takes his walks, well.. that’s Winn’s good years here, 2002-2003.
No, because I expect Snelling to be a guy who outhits Winn by 30-50 points in average (high average, not merely solid) and draws 40-60 more walks a year. Applied to Winn’s ’03 stats, that comes out more like .325/.417/.455; and personally, I think he’ll hit for more power than that, too.
BTW, Winn’s career ’02 was with the D-Rays.
I was wondering if sticking with Winn in Left Field right up to the deadline, when Snelling was an option on the bench, didn’t help Winn’s trade value. If the M’s had turned Winn into a part time Left fielder would they have gotten the deals that SF offered and supposedly Houston offered when he was packaged with Moyer? I was interested, though didn’t have an opinion about, the various discussions around show casing. We weren’t really show casing so much here because Winn has always had a starting spot in our lineup.
I bring this up for 2 reasons. One, I was of the opinion that a few weeks sitting on the M’s bench wasn’t going to kill Snelling’s development. And, two, the Winn trade might be a template for what to do with Reed next year. If we make him a fourth outfielder, or worse – a 25th man on the bench, he might not fetch much of a trade in July.
Wow, I think we’re writing off Reed pretty quickly. Certainly his numbers are nothing to write home about this year, but he’s only 24, is a former top prospect, is hitting much better away from Safeco and from some metrics appears to be exceptional defensively.
Derek, well said on Ichiro. At .370 (2004) he’s an MVP candidate, at .330 – .340 he’s a star. But at .300, he’s just another good player. While we have a line up full of holes, I’m more disapppointed/frustrated with Ichiro’s performance this year than anyone else (though Beltre is a close second).
I disagree about Reed and OBP. He shows good patience and pitch selection at the plate. At 24 he is on a pace for about 60-70 walks per year, just looking at his mlb at-bats.
I’ve got to think his Avg will improve…he’s still just 24, but I’ve about given up hope that he’ll ever hit more than a few token HRs per year, he does manage to rip some doubles.
So, all-in-all, he could easily be a .280/.380/.400 kind of hitter. Since he plays good CF, that impresses me as a useful starter.
Wow, this basically suggests that the Mariner offense–except for a couple of positions like 1B and perhaps RF–SUCK.
Coupled this with the M’s rotation, and you can expect the Mariners to contend in say the year … 3020.
I’m not writing off Reed as a good player. I’m just thinking he might not be a good fit for this team long term. The M’s need to think creatively in order to get more power out of the outfield. If Adam Jones or some other trade can do that, then I think Reed is expendable in a trade. And the more the M’s can get for Reed in a trade, the better off the team will be.
I think DH does have to factor in, and Ibanez seems to have had a solid year, so you can add him to Sexson. But Ichiro is below par, according to salary if nothing else. The other sinkhole is the bench as a whole, though it may be more difficult to judge that versus the rest of the league (assuming you want to look at more than pinch-hitting). Certainly the team has been carrying two to three sub-.200 hitters all year on the bench.
I am somewhat new to the area and following the M’s full time, so could someone fill me in on why Ichiro HAS to play in right field? Is it simply that he refuses to play center and the organization is too afraid to call him on it?
On previous post, it sounds like I’m saying Ichiro represents a sinkhole the way the bench has, and this is certainly not the case. As DMZ’s numbers indicate, he’s competitive at his position, though disappointing in terms of team need, previous performance, and salary. Lots of triples, though. There have been other holes in the lineup (catcher, second base) that compare to the bench.
Given that the Mariners have only 2 of 9 hitting positions at league average or better (I’m counting Ibanez with Sexson) and the the starting pitching has been a shambles much of the year, it is a wonder they continue to play .430, 70-win ball. And indeed, is there any hope that Bucky will come back to take a bench spot? Not that he is the answer to all troubles, but he’s a better option than the man providing not quite a hit for every million dollars paid (Spiezio).
#25, It’s not quite that bad. Going by VORP we have 3 good players in our lineup. Amongst American Leaguers Sexson is 1st at 1B, Raul is 4th among DH’s, and Ichiro is 3rd amongst RF.
3 good bats! Whoopeee!
#20 Maybe the Mariners should tear down Safeco Field and rebuild the Kingdome. That way they could get more mileage out of the ’95 season with various promotions ad infinitum and milk the ’95 season for all it is worth.
Don’t call it “writing off” if you prefer, but I agree with Adam S. that we’re jumping to conclusions on Reed far too early. He has less than 395 career ABs and plays an important defensive skill position pretty well. I agree with ajp that Reed shows a good approach at the plate, looks at a good number of pitches (almost 3.7 per plate appearance), and even if it doesn’t translate into huge walk rates right now, it isn’t hard to see that coming.
Also, before annointing Adam Jones or Matt Tuiasosopo as the answer in CF, remember that Jones has just taken a step forward in AA, and Tui is still in low-A ball. Jones is hitting 307/361/407 in the Texas League after hitting 267/314/404 in A ball last year; Tui is hitting 291/376/407 in high A. At comparable levels, Reed hit333/431/477 in A, and 409/474/591 in AA. Nothing suggests that Jones or Tui are better prospects than Reed was at the same level, and the fact that he has played to about league average offensively as a rookie doesn’t mean Reed has lost all his promise.
#20 In the year 3020 the descendents of Rick Rizzs will still pass on the tradition of the 1995 Mariners and how that miracle season saved baseball in Seattle.
#27 – fear not. The M’s will never run out of ways to milk the ’05 season. They will continue to have 26 Edgar promotions per year until 2052. And don’t forget that they will soon milk the 2001 season for all it’s worth as well (next year is the 5-year anniversary of the 2001 season – time for another round of bobbleheads and fuzzy bears for all!).
Whoops, I meant ’95 season, not ’05 above.
We have invested in some ABs for younger players this year. Maybe we should have invested more (why all those empty ABs at SS, 2B and C by guys no longer here — but that’s hindsight). That explains some of our abysmal offense. Reed hasn’t blown up this year the way we hoped, but maybe he’s done the work necessary to improve dramatically next year. Same with Morse and Betancourt (Baylor clearly is working with Morse to pull the ball more, which is reducing his average, but maybe that’ll pay off in the long run).
And now the same with Snelling. We’re also going to give a relatively young catcher who is better defensively than Olivo some at-bats from here on out, too. Next year we’ll start to see whether the investment paid off, but really what other choice was there?
On Reed, fwiw: he seems SO buttoned up. someone needs to tell him he can engage emotionally with the game, that he doesn’t have to worry so much about mistakes, especially at the plate. he looks like prey out there, not predator…
You HAVE to adjust for park with Safeco. Our offense is not as bad as this makes us look — we’re merely bad, not abysmal. If you want to rough it out, add ten percent, or enough to make Beltre look about league-average (above replacement). Or better yet, find a park-adjusted stat, preferably one that already adjusts for league as well, like RARP or VORP.
C: Rivera 5.2 in 35 PA (14th in AL)
C: Gonzalez 2.2 in 34 PA (16th)
C: Torrealba -0.7 in 6 PA (27th)
C: Wilson -3.0 in 30 PA (34th)
C: Borders -6.4 in 125 PA (40th)
C: Olivo -12.8 in 157 PA (43rd and last, by a large margin,
among all players at all positions)
1B: Sexson 39.9 in 439 PA (1st)
2B: Boone 4.8 in 302 PA (13th)
2B: Betancourt 0.8 in 30 PA (18th)
2B: Lopez -2.9 in 84 PA (32nd)
3B: Beltre 10.1 in 430 PA (11th)
SS: Morse 15.4 in 187 PA (10th)
SS: Bloomquist 6.3 in 174 PA (13th)
SS: Valdez -7.6 in 133 PA (26th)
LF: Winn 13.6 in 436 PA (9th)
LF: Snelling -0.4 in 20 PA (22nd)
CF: Reed 1.1 in 375 PA (16th)
RF: Suzuki 27.6 in 494 PA (3rd)
DH: Ibanez 35.8 in 456 PA (4th)
PH: Choo 0.1 in 3 PA (2nd out of 7; all PH suck
PH: Hansen -2.8 in 51 PA (5th of 7)
PH: Dobbs -3.1 in 36 PA (6th of 7)
PH: Spezio -5.7 in 37 PA (last of of 7)
This is pretty bad but not as bad as the unadjusted numbers suggest.
Our pitching isn’t as “good” as it looks, either.
Production is going to suffer the rest of the year with all the rookies until the FO decides who is a keeper. It is going to continue to be ugly at times but at least there is an upside out there in the future. Right now all we have is potential production at every position other than 1st, RF, and DH but at some point we are going to need some actual production.
#23 Interesting that you should ask–I think everyone asks the same question but no one ever follows up and gets to the bottom. Ichiro does, what Ichiro wants to do, and that’s it. Many other Ichiro’s questions come up frequently but are never answered other than “that’s what Ichiro wants to do” Of course it would help the team for Ichiro to try to hit for power on a team that is bereft of power but Ichiro wants to dink and dunk and lead the world in singles. Ichiro is a nice clutch hitter that might help the team in an rbi position in the batting order but he wants to hit lead off. Of course as we saw last year you can lead the world in hits and if you don’t have anyone to drive you in, it’s to no avail. How many games did we win when he broke Sisler’s record? What’s up with him bunting with men in scoring position? He’s a wonderful fielding, singles hitting, no walking player that does what he wants to do, where he wants to do it and seldom does anyone ever say boo about it, because here, he’s looked at as a god that can do no wrong. But watch what you say on this site about Ichiro because you’re likely to get blasted. One last item–what’s up with him always hiding behind an interpreter after all this time in the U.S. I find that insulting. Other players do not do this Do the Mariners provide interpreters for the other players thaat have English as a second language? You know the answer to that one.
One last item–what’s up with him always hiding behind an interpreter after all this time in the U.S. I find that insulting.
Hiding. Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaah.
Other players do not do this Do the Mariners provide interpreters for the other players thaat have English as a second language? You know the answer to that one.
I do. The Mariners provide interpretation for Spanish players who want it. Not everyone is Hasegawa, writing books on how to learn English.
That’s great stuff. You can build on that by examining by position how likely it is to add production that is above the overall mean. iow there are more mashers as corner players than cfielders. We’ve turned over two generational centerfielders in Griffey and Cameron and they are very rare commodities.
Anybody who’s watched Tui either here as a kid or as a pro for very long would suggest he’s a corner player, maybe rf as his arm is very big.
The impact of having a lousy catcher on any pitching staff appears observable when watching a team over a week or two. Moyer calls his own game, whereas the younger pitchers rely on the catcher and an Olivo breeds tentativeness in younger guys. I doubt if Clement will be in the mix until 2007 at the earliest and he will need to further gain experience at mlb level. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them acquire someone else this winter.
35. It is hard to tell with Ichiro whether his preferences are actually very closely related to his ability to succeed or whether they are cover for a Griffey-like sense of status and entitlement. I can’t think of an instance when they were interpreted in the Griffey sense. Everyone has taken his word (via interpreter, or via shaky, small-sample size performance) that the former is the case. He supposedly was not comfortable hitting third in spring training. Paul Molitor has been vilified for costing Ichiro a shot at .400 last year by asking him to walk more, or hit for more power, or whatever early in the season (not that PM proved himself to be a genius batting instructor with other players). I think the last time Ichiro played center was in the playoffs against the Yankees when Lou wanted Buhner in the game. Whether such shifts (to center, to lower in the batting order, the elimination of bunts with RISP) would result in more runs scored and more wins is something that would probably be very difficult to project, but the sense that Ichiro is resistant to experimenting with such changes may tie the club’s hands when it doesn’t have solid production at most positions.
However: If Ichiro can get 200 hits a year until he’s 40 (and who would doubt him?) we’re looking at 3,000 in MLB alone. He is a Hall caliber player getting a late start. Whether that factors into the way he plays is something we certainly won’t be able to prove. So we’re left with cheering for him to do what he does and hoping the team can fix the many more pressing problems at hand. Even with his struggles this year, the numbers say he is still No. 3 at his position in the league, and that doesn’t factor the defense. Meanwhile he generates an enormous amount of revenue and exposure for the team, much of it international, so he certainly pays for his own salary.
Re: #35
I don’t understand how you are able to see through Ichiro to all of those evil motives when no one else (that I am aware of) does. There is no corroborating evidence or pattern of behavior to project what you surmise, only your evil suspicions.
My thoughts are more simple. He plays RF because he is the best RF in the game. He hits mostly singles because he isn’t and won’t be a successful power guy. He hits leadoff because he has speed and a high (career) OBP. He speaks through an interpreter because if he says something *anything* wrong in English and it gets translated back into Japanese, the Japanese press rub his nose in it for weeks.
He is not having a career year, but the M’s have many other issues to go deal with. Nothing says your batting order *has* to have power production coming out of RF. We just have to have it from more than one guy in the lineup.
Yup.
Its been a tough season for the Mariners. Personally, I’m not so much worried about the offense. Corner infield positions are going to be just fine. Though the outfield lacks pop it will make up for that in defense and have the ability to string together the hits and walks necessary to get to the boppers – Ibanez, Sexson and Beltre.
Middle infield looks like a blackhole offensively so they had better give well above average defense to support what looks to be a pretty weak staff next season. The Mariners would be well served to try and secure at least a Kevin Millwood level starter or it will be another long season. I just see pitching as the key in terms of offseason aquisitions.
Re: #16, Ancient M, yup, I’m with you on Doyle’s offense vs. Winn. I expect at least .30 more batting average, and 20-30% more walks minimum. That put’s Doyle’s OBP up above .380, making him immediately more valuable. I also expect that Doyle will put 20 HR a couple of times, and generally slug not only more but more consistently than Randy. At his peak months in his peak years, Randy Winn raked and was a force. Randy is now on the wrong side of 30, and having a so-so year. He may bounce back, but we’ve seen his peak value. I suspect that Doyle will rake more often more consistently, he’s 7 years younger, cheap, and his best years with the bat are yet to be.
Furthermore, as Derek said above, Doyle has a good arm. More than that, he has always played all out in the outfield, a la Reed, and gets more from his speed and body than most guys. Even so, the bloke doesn’t have the range for CF, but there’s no reason to think he can’t be an above average corner OFer; not Randy Winn-like, no, but good in his own right.
Re: Pete, #28 on Reed, you’re comparing apples and oranges to a degree there. To begin with, Reed’s big year in AA was almost entirely the result of hitting, what was it .370? That gaudy slugging percentage was fundamentally pumped up by singles: Reed has never slugged much, his % of XBHs is below average. Last year, both in the minors and in the majors his slugging was a pale shadow of that figure; this year the same and less. There’s a reason Jeremy is looking ‘like the prey not the predator’ at the plate, as someone said aabove: he’s getting eaten up by good major league fastballs. For the first time in his life, he’s not dominating; instead, he’s getting the bat knocked out of his hands.
This year, Adam Jones started to belt the extra base hits, a good percentage of them in A ball. They moved him up to AA, and, yes, after the first few weeks both the league and the length of the season caught up with him a bit to pull his _yearly aggregate_ numbers down, not way down, but yes, down. Adam Jones is also 20, and putting up numbers as good, and really better than Reed at a younger age. Now, I have no idea, none, where Adam Jones will come down in the end as an offensive player. He’s better than Jones and better than Choo, but he’s got some growing yet to do, and needs to sharpen up his pitch selection by the look of his K rate.
The juxtaposition of Jones and Reed in a single post above was not intended to suggest that Jones is as of today a better option were he in CF. Rather: a) there are many SSs and no CFers in the Ms organization, and Jones, to me, looks like the hands down best choice to convert from SS to CF, and b) no matter what is done regarding Jones, Reed is not a long-term answer in center.
I’m not suggesting ‘writing off’ Jeremy Reed; I’m suggesting writing him down to what he is _actually accomplishing_ rather than seeing him for what one hopes he may become. Reed is very likely to get better, but considering that he’s at replacement level now and has no history, none, of slugging for significant power, it is just unreasonable to project that he’s going to become any kind of a star. A servicable player who will make some contact at the plate, and give you some hustle D in the outfield, i.e. a 4th OFer.
It’s time for the Ms to get _ahead_ of a player’s developmental curve when making their plans rather than behind such curves, which is where they have been for the last half dozen years at least. I was pleasantly surprised that they made the move on Olivo so quickly; that’s not like the team of late. “Sum the ledger as you go, not when the bill comes due.”
I think Doyle and Bucky solve the high AVG/OBP and XBH problems that M’s have. Once Doyle gets going and Bucky gets back to where he was, the M’s will be much better offensively. The M’s really need pitching and Raul and prospects will have to go to get it. I don’t think there is any other way.
Re: #23, why is Ichiro in RF: because of his arm. He has arguably the strongest arm in baseball, and one of the best in league history; only Vlad Guerrero is in the discussion at present. Ichi has, arguably, the most accurate arm in the majors, in significant part due to his flawless technique and approach to the ball. No one has anything like the combination of the two attributes. Whether the suppressive effect of his arm on opposing baserunners is worth keeping him in RF will be debated by numbers types, but no manager or GM has been or will be able to bring themselves to subtract his arm from RF.
In addition, Ichiro has CF range and impeccable routes in RF, and by the evidence of the yes is the best in the game there, although defensive metrics are surprisingly equivocal on the matter. Regardless, with a vastly superior defensive player in FR with a skill _which cannot be duplicated_, and a vastly superior defensive player (Winn) or a well above average defensive player (Reed or Doyle) in LF, one can focus on the remaining position for the hat trick.
The discussion of Ichiro can go round and round, but he’s staying right where he is, and not because he won’t move, but because his managers and GMs salivate about that arm and the impact it has on the opposing team and the fans. Which is why I’m all for the Ms focusing on a long-term solution in CF pronto.
#43 Bela wrote:
In AA, Reed hit what I quoted: 409/574/591, in 242 ABs. He had 27 XBH out of 99 hits, which I agree is slightly below what you would like to see, but not much, especially for a guy moving to AA at mid-season.
It isn’t apples to oranges. I quoted Jones’ AA totals (307/361/464 in 140 ABs, with 13 XBH out of 43 hits — only a slightly better ratio than Reed had in AA, while hitting for over 100 points less in average), not his yearly aggregate totals. I am interested to see exactly where you believe that Jones’ minor league statistics support the contention that he is putting up better numbers than Reed did at a comparable level. Yes, Reed was older by two years (22) when he tore through AA, but he wasn’t so old that one should discount that performance . . ..
Bela, I am not arguing that Reed will develop into a guy with serious power (I would still argue that what DMZ wrote about Snelling — 10-15 HR with 35-40 2B and a .280-.300 AVG is about where he’ll settle in at 27-28), but you have to remember this is a guy who was rushed through the minors (1183 total minor league ABs), is still fairly young (24), and can be expected to adjust and improve for the next several seasons. It is too early to decide, in 395 MLB ABs, that he will never do this or never do that, and it there is nothing to indicate that Jones will be that much better. Give them both the time to see what they’ll become (though I agree with your point about moving Jones to CF sooner than later).