Felix Hernandez, Groundball Machine
After two starts, Felix Hernandez has taken Seattle by storm. He has a 0.69 ERA, and we’ve run out of adjectives to explain how great he looked on Tuesday. Ron Gardenhire referred to The Royal Curveball as “a curveball from hell”, for example.
Well, there’s one area of Felix’s pitching that I think deserves a little more attention than it has received. His groundball dominance has been nothing short of amazing to watch. According to ESPN’s tracking (via Stats Inc), through two starts, Felix has induced 26 groundballs and allowed 6 flyballs, for a 4.3 to 1 ratio. The Hardball Times, which gets proprietary play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions, has his mark at 5.4 to 1. And, according to Baseball Prospectus (which, I believe, is simply measuring groundouts and flyouts), Felix’s mark stands at 5.0 to 1. Due to the differing methodologies by the three sites, finding uniformity is nearly impossible. But, regardless, they’re all generally measuring the same thing, and by any of the three measures, Felix’s G/F rate so far has been remarkable.
I knew he was a dominant groundball guy in the minors as well, so this performance wasn’t a huge surprise. The question that came to me, however, is how well could we accurately determine what his “true” groundball/flyball ratio might be going forward from such a small sample size. Since we know that pitchers have strong consistent abilities to influence G/F rates, we’re fairly certain that Felix’s groundball dominance is a repeatable skill. But, we don’t know if the insane groundball inducing power he’s held over hitters through two starts will continue at this level. It’s almost certain that Felix is going to be one of the more dominant groundball pitchers in the game, but is he going to be a groundballer of Derek Lowe proportion or Brandon Webb proportion? Or will he just create his own new level of groundballing not yet seen, which is what he has done through two starts?
There’s no perfect way to answer this yet, and the small sample size police are going to run over this thread, I’m sure, but my theory is that dominant groundball tendancies in a small sample are indeed evidence of a trend that we can expect going forward. For instance, I don’t expect to ever see Julio Mateo induce 12 groundouts and 0 flyouts in an outing. That kind of performance is just beyond his skillset and the way he pitches. So, what I decided to do was to look through the gamelogs of some major league pitchers and attempt to determine the variance of their G/F ratio in a particular game versus their established G/F rate for the season. If we see that there is little variance from game to game, we can assume that this is a repeatable skill and Felix’s absurd groundballing ways may indeed continue to the point that he becomes the most groundball friendly starter in major league baseball.
On to the evidence.
In order to look at a game by game breakdown, I’m using ESPN’s numbers from their game logs.
Roy Halladay:
Season G/F rate: 2.59
Single Performance Low: 1.5
Single Performance High: 7.5
Median Performance: 2.60
Standard Deviation: 1.52
Derek Lowe:
Season G/F rate: 2.99
Single Performance Low: 1.13
Single Performance High: 12
Median Performance: 3.12
Standard Deviation: 2.49
Brandon Webb:
Season G/F rate: 4.25
Single Performance Low: 1.33
Single Performance High: 16
Median Performance: 4
Standard Deviation: 3.48
John Patterson:
Season G/F rate: 0.55
Single Performance Low: 0.08
Single Performance High: 1.4
Median Performance: 0.55
Standard Deviation: 0.34
Scott Elarton:
Season G/F rate: 0.67
Single Performance Low: 0.15
Single Performance High: 2.25
Median Performance: 0.75
Standard Deviation: 0.60
Pedro Martinez:
Season G/F rate: 0.82
Single Performance Low: 0.15
Single Performance High: 4.33
Median Performance: 0.75
Standard Deviation: 0.87
That gives us six pitchers, three of whom are severe groundball pitchers and three of whom are severe flyball pitchers. Among the interesting things I’d observe about the data (and still being aware that this is all dealing with small sample sizes).
There is far, far more deviation among the groundballers than among the flyballers. I actually expected that to be reversed. My theory, going into this, was that an extreme groundball pitcher would almost always be an extreme groundball pitcher. While it is true that Halladay, Lowe, and Webb have not had one game all season where they allowed more fly balls than ground balls, their levels of groundballness was all across the board. I didn’t expect to see that.
The median correlates very strongly with the average, which is true in almost any statistical study you’re going to do. However, I was surprised at how closely they matched.
Pedro Martinez was, until last year, a groundball pitcher. He’s now one of the more extreme flyball pitchers in the game. I have no idea why.
So, what does this all have to do with Felix?
Well, the 12-0 mark he put up in Detroit, I believe, is a huge clue that Felix is going to be an extreme groundball pitcher. You don’t put up something like that on accident, small sample size or not. You’ll never see John Patterson go 5 innings without allowing a flyball. It just isn’t going to happen. But his ratio on Tuesday night of 12-6 is much more human, something that would fit in at the low end of the spectrum for Halladay, Lowe, and Webb. Also, from my notes, most of those fly balls came later in the game, when it could be assumed that Felix was tiring slightly. Perhaps, if he had gone more than 5 innings in Detroit, his ridiculous 12-0 ratio would have come out as something more like 15-5.
Obviously, Felix will sort this all out by himself when he takes the mound the rest of the year. However, I believe, based on his two starts, we can with some assurances extrapolate that, going forward, Felix Hernandez is going to be one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in major league baseball. Whether he’s Roy Halladay or Brandon Webb, we can’t know yet. But we should be certain that he’s not a flyball pitcher.
So, why does this matter? Well, here’s the thing about groundball pitchers who also strike out a high percentage of hitters; they are, with almost no exceptions, all-stars. The combination of groundballs and strikeouts is death to offenses.
People will talk about Felix needing to improve his command of his fastball and gushing about the potential of a 19-year-old. I say, right now, Felix Hernandez, with the heavy sink of his 2-seam and the nasty break on his curve, is a lights out major league starting pitcher, no improvement necessary. The potential is outstanding, but he’s arrived. He is a frontline major league starting pitcher right now.
Comments
65 Responses to “Felix Hernandez, Groundball Machine”
The Royal Curveball lives on.
The King Felix experience makes me smile at work. I try to explain his greatness to the casual baseball fan and their blankness of expression tells me that only a true M fan can appreciate what he’ll bring to this franchise in the coming years. If we can add some consistentcy to our offense and jettison the deadwood in the bullpen, we will actually have a legitmate season next year.
I call his curveball “The Bumfuzzler”
I’ve been seriously wondering if his “struggles” in Tacoma came about because he was actually quite bored. Sure, he needed to show that he could handle AAA hitters. They also wanted to be very, very careful with his health, and by keeping him in Tacoma, they could do this without affecting the win/loss column in Seattle.
But Felix was probably ready to join the M’s out of Spring Training. Recognizing that he was just about to turn 19, they had to be cautious with him. He knew this, and knew that he had to perform in AAA, but also went down there knowing he could be in Seattle.
Imagine this season, though, had we started it off with Felix in the rotation. Sure, the offense would still have had their woes. But it would’ve been a much more exciting season. I completely understand the reasons why they needed to hold him back, but still. Sometimes God gives unusual gifts to people, and they need to be allowed to use them, no matter what age they are. It’s indeed unusual to have 16 year olds getting their PhD’s, but there are kids gifted enough to handle it.
On the one hand I’m very glad they’re concerned for the long-term health and performance of Felix. On the other, though, it sure would’ve been nice to have started the season with him in the rotation.
Dave,
I agree with the point you’re trying to make, but I don’t know if I agree with the methodology.
It seems to me that the data would be potentially more insightful if you compared groundball and flyball totals separately, rather than together as a single ratio.
For instance, if a player’s average G/F ratio is 1, and he throws a 0.05 in a game (1 GB, 20 FB), 0.05 is only a distance of 0.95 from 1 on the number line. However, if he throws the opposite, 20 GB, 1 FB in a game, his G/F ratio is 20, which is 19 higher than his season average of 1.
That way, it seems pretty obvious to me that GB-heavy pitchers will have a higher Standard Deviation in their G/F ratio than FB-heavy pitchers, but I don’t know if that says anything of the consistency of the two groups.
Just a suggestion.
Dave, do we have any G/F numbers for Felix in Tacoma/SA/etc.?
If he’s this extreme of a groundball pitcher (infield groundball machine!), he’d be perfect for the Rockies.
dw, The King is perfect for the Mariners. Stop that.
I’m with dw. Seems to me that, rather than look at the small sized sample in the majors and try to extrapolate, it would make a lot more sense to look at minor league numbers… if they’re available. If they’re not, they should be…
Felix would be an excellent pitcher anywhere.
I’m all for capping his throws to 95 per game for the rest of the season. Make that for the next 2 years.
Felix, want to throw a complete game? You got 95 pitches to do it.
That will keep him from getting bored, and likely he’ll deliver.
I think Felix consciously pitching downstairs, so to speak, to induce groundballs, really makes sense. And it doesn’t surprise me that such a skill is repeatable. But Tom Glavine has made the comment that he has to live down in the strikezone because he doesn’t have enough speed on his fastball to pitch up. I don’t know much about Webb, but I also know that Lowe doesn’t have the fastball to pitch “up”.
Felix, on the other hand, has the fastball, and presumably fast slider, to pitch up and induce pop flies. As someone once said, pitching is about screwing up the timing of the hitter. And if the hitter knows the pitcher is going low every time, he’ll adjust. Famous lowball hitters like Garret Anderson will especially exploit a consistent low in the strikezone approach from Felix.
I don’t think we can expect, nor would I necessarily want Felix to be always an extreme groundball pitcher. I don’t think he will reach his full potential that way. I think a more eclectic choice of pitches will mess with the opposing hitter’s timing to the tune of a lower ERA.
I would project that he would fall more in the Roger Clemens hybrid category of 1.5 to 2.0 G/F ratios through his career.
Where’d new Joel go?
The statistic you are using – G/F – is not normally distributed. It has a long tail. So variations for groundball pitchers are seriously overweighted vs groundball pitchers. (e.g, assume a “normal” G/F ratio is 1.2. If a guy gives up no flyballs, his deviation from norm is 1.2. If he gives up no flyballs, his deviation from norm is infinite. That means that deviations toward ground ball tendencies will be heavily ovweighted in the standard dev calcs.)
A better statistic to use is either FB% or GB%, i.e., the percent of balls in play that are flyballs or groundballs. And even better would be normalized FB% or GB%, which would be FB% for a game divided by “average FB%” for all pitchers (or GB% for a game divided by “average GB%” for all pitchers).
I’m working on getting his G/F rates from Tacoma. In conversations with others, I know it’s been mentioned that he was an extreme groundball guy in the minors too, so this is nothing new.
Good point Steve. See, I’m not a mathmatician, I just play one on the blog.
Unfortunately, I don’t have time to redo the STDEV numbers. Ayone else want to take a crack at it?
dw, The King is perfect for the Mariners. Stop that.
I’m kidding.
The Rockies would probably have to give up all of Colorado Springs and Tulsa to get him. And I’m not sure what the M’s would do with 800,000 people, two international airports, a military academy, three charismatic seminaries, two newspapers, a city park made up of kitschily-named rock formations, and a concert hall with a spring-loaded floor.
I just know 800,000 people are all going to have shredded labrums if the deal goes through.
I thin Jordan has a useful point. In my job, (which is molecular biology) we often deal with ratio values in terms of gene expression. Gene X goes up two-fold under treatment as compared to control, whereas Gene Y goes down two-fold. That would lead to ratios of 2 and 0.5. Both are equally great in magnitude, but on paper the upregulation looks much greater than the downregulation. One thing we often do is log2 transform the data, to equalize changes–that is, GeneX would have a log2 ratio of 1 and Gene Y would have a log2 ratio of -1.
However, in this case, a simpler way to look at it might be to use Coefficient of Variance as a descriptor, as opposed to simply looking at average and standard deviation. CV = SD/average, and so it gets the proportional variance for a given pitcher. So, reworking the table above we have:
Halladay CV: 0.59
Lowe CV: 0.83
Webb CV: 0.82
Patterson CV: 0.62
Elarton CV: 1.06
Martinez CV: 1.06
Two out of the three flyball pitchers do have a greater variance relative to mean than the groundball pitchers, although Patterson is an outlier. More samples would help as far as number of pitchers.
Kyle
That’s good stuff, Kyle.
Perhaps I’ll expand the study as I have time. I’ll definitely make sure to use SD/avg instead of just a straight SD.
Dope
Just goes to show what can happen when you don’t type quickly enough–I started typing after Jordan’s comment, and by the time I sent, Steve had already come through with some observations that I had missed. Extending on his point and with regards to CV, since the GB/FB ratio is non-normally distributed, that makes CV not completely accurate–but on the other hand, the non-normal distribution would, I believe, have the effect of reducing a flyballer’s CV relative to a groundballer’s CV, making the difference possibly even greater.
I think using FB% or GB% would be a good way to overcome normality problems, and then using CV would give the variance relative to the mean for a variety of pitchers. I’m not sure if using normalized FB% would be necessary though.
Kyle
I know this is a bit offtopic and probably unwarranted after 2 starts, but… How many innings does one need to pitch in order to NOT be considered a rookie next year? IE, let’s assume felix makes 9 more starts this year, would he still be eligible for the ROY next year?
Dave, thanks for the illuminating work. Right now I just can’t get enough of reading and talking about The King, and I share the experience of Russ in discussing my excitement with casual fans. They’ll figure it out soon enough, I suppose.
While you acknowledge the danger of extrapolating from a small sample size, I would like to mention another perhaps more relevant pitfall: Statistically speaking, the present sample not only is small, but is not a random sample of his “career†population. King Felix’s pitching, and batters’ approach to dealing with it, will change with familiarity. The population of “unfamiliar at-bats†from which you are extrapolating is likely to differ significantly from the population of “familiar at-bats†which will comprise the vast majority of his (hopefully) long career.
Nonetheless, his ridiculous G/F ratio certainly bodes well for the future. Groundouts are nice, but if we want the thrill of seeing batters flail at the two-strike high heat, we’ll have to take a chance on a few fly balls, too.
I don’t know anything about where this stat came from, but Felix’s player profile in his online PECOTA card says that his GB/FB ratio was better than about 98% or 99% of major leaguers after last year. That was before he pitched a day in AAA or the majors.
Rusty touched on it, but in one of the many columns on Felix over the last week, somebody mentioned the extreme rarity to not only have such a GB/FB ratio, but also a good K/9 to go along with it. Most groundball pitchers play to thier defense, where The King can take matters into his own hands any time he needs to as well.
I think the author (unfortunately I can’t recall who) said the best comp in terms of strikeouts would be Matt Clement, and his GB/FB is around 1.67, so Felix really is in a league of his own.
I may have missed a couple of innings or so of his relief appearances but I added up the groundballs and flyballs of his boxscores at Tacoma. They came to 93/59 for a ratio of 1.58 to 1.
I didn’t include this in the original post, because I said something similar last week, but to back up Aaron’s point, here’s the list of pitchers that have both a 1.4 or higher G/F rate and a K/9 rate of 6.00 or higher. In other words, these are the guys who both miss bats and induce a lot of groundballs:
Brandon Webb: 6.62 K/9, 4.25 G/F
Roy Halladay: 6.86 K/9, 2.60 G/F
AJ Burnett: 8.04 K/9, 2.57 G/F
Chris Carpenter: 8.46 K/9, 2.06 G/F
Carlos Zambrano: 8.04 K/9, 1.78 G/F
Daniel Cabrera: 8.62 K/9, 1.71 G/F
Andy Pettitte: 6.81 K/9, 1.67 G/F
Chan Ho Park: 6.69 K/9, 1.60 G/F
Jeremy Bonderman: 6.94 K/9, 1.53 G/F
John Smoltz: 6.62 K/9, 1.51 G/F
Freddy Garcia: 6.11 K/9, 1.48 G/F
Roy Oswalt: 6.34 K/9, 1.43 G/F
Roger Clemens: 8.02 K/9, 1.41 G/F
C.C. Sabathia: 6.66 K/9, 1.40 G/F
Matt Clement: 7.70 K/9, 1.40 G/F
That’s the list. Basically, it’s the best pitchers in baseball and Chan Ho Park.
So… should we offer Felix 20 years at 200 mill? Would you do it?
I know that we have him for roughly 6 years for practically nothing, but by that time, he may be such a superstud that he might hear the Yankee’s calling with their big fat pocket books. Should we consider locking up Felix long term sooner then later?
The King can take matters into his own hands any time he needs to.
“Ultimo Ratio Regumâ€Â
To reference some other rookie pitchers who have debut this year:
Zach Duke: 145/110 – 1.32 G/F (minors)
64/42 – 1.52 G/F (majors)
Brandon McCarthy: 83/94 – 0.88 G/F (minors)
28/39 : 0.72 G/F (majors)
Also, before this year, Matt Cain was considered to be just behind Felix Hernandez. Both pitched in the PCL in drastically different ways:
78/121 : 0.64 G/F ratio
19 homeruns/128 innings 1.34hr/9
I think better than huge contracts to Felix, the team is better off spending the next 6 years building a championship caliber team around him to the point where he doesn’t want to play anywhere else.
Shouldn’t all of Felix’s pitches have nicknames along the line of “The Royal CurveballTM”, Like “The Jester” changeup, “The Guillotine” fastball maybe?
Hah, too funny Tim. I’m seeing wrestling terms getting worked back into this…
#25 –
20 years at 200 million, after one solid and one phenomenal start? Are you insane? Yes, Felix has the stuff to be a stud. Yes, he’s shown every indication he will be that stud. But to commit that much money to one guy for so long is…dubious, to say the least. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, here.
If he dominates like he did Tuesday for the rest of the season, give his ML minimum salary a big ol’ bump next year. But lock him up to a bigger deal after next year, not after this week – he’s not going anywhere for at least 6 years anyway, why take the risk that he’ll…no, I’m not gonna say it. But still.
Hey guys. I just ran through all Felix’s game logs on milb.com:
Date/Team/Gballs:Flyballs – Line (IP,h,r,er,bb,so,hr,era)
4/8 Fresno/12:7 – (6,5,1,0,1,4,0,0.00) L(0-1)
4/13 Sac/9:6 – (5 5 0 0 3 5 0 0.00) W(1-1)
4/19 Sac/4:9 – (6 4 3 3 4 8 0 1.59) L(1-2)
4/25 Col Springs/ 7:7 – (5 4 1 1 4 6 0 1.64) W(2-2)
4/30 Salt Lake/ No Log – (7 10 4 4 3 5 1 3.00) W(3-2)
5/6 Salt Lake/11:8 – (7 2 3 3 4 3 2 2.75) W(4-2)
5/12 Round Rock/7:7 – (7 2 0 0 1 8 0 2.30) W(5-2)
5/17 Albeq/4:0 – (1.1 3 4 4 1 3 0 3.05) L(5-3)
5/23 Memphis/11:6 -(7 4 0 0 2 9 0 2.63) W(6-3)
5/29 Fresno/7:7 – (5 4 2 2 5 4 0 2.72) ND(6-3)
6/3 Sac/11:3 – (6 3 2 2 3 8 0 2.74) L(6-4)
6/9 LV/5:7 – (5.1 5 0 0 5 8 0 2.53) W(7-4)
6/14 Port/9:3 – (6 3 0 0 4 7 0 2.32) W(8-4)
7/10 Tucson/1:2 – (1 1 0 0 0 1 0 2.29) ND(8-4)
7/14 Port/1:1 – (2 0 0 0 0 4 0 2.23) W(9-4)
7/17 Port/3:2 – (1 3 3 3 2 1 0 2.55) ND(9-4)
7/21 Tucson/4:3 – (3 2 1 0 1 4 0 2.45) ND(9-4)
7/26 Iowa/6:1 – (3.1 2 0 0 3 5 0 2.36) ND(9-4)
7/30 Omaha/6:0 – (4 0 0 0 2 7 0 2.25) ND(9-4)
Totals: 109:79 gb/fb (1.38gb/fb)
19G, 88i, 2.25era, 62h, 24r, 22er, 3hr, 48bb, 100so
-Draw your own conclusions since i dont want to go there. Apologies for the format and any mistakes. Hope it proves useful to some.
#25, TIF — Nah, not yet. Remember, The King is 19, and the “injury nexus” is at, what, 24? Let him get through a couple full, healthy seasons first. If he pitches like this, the team is still showing him enormous respect by bringing up a long-term deal a year before he is even eligible for arbitration (which is something we definitely want to avoid).
I’m not sure that, even at 21-22, I want to commit to 20 years, but I would commit to 8-12, if it meant the yearly $$ would be lower (because of the larger assumption of risk of injury by the club). Even typing that makes me cringe, given the fragility of pitchers, but you want to take away ALL of his arbitration years and at least 4-5 years on top of that, I would guess.
And if you want to remove the frightening presence of Chan Ho Park from the list without much trouble, just add “BB/9 under 4.0″ as a category.
Here’s Felix’s splits, courtesy of Jim Callis. He rocks.
IP H AB AVG TBF HR 3B 2B BB SO GB FLY RA ER ERA
vs Left 42.1 34 156 .218 187 1 1 9 28 40 55 30 12 2.55
vs Right 45.2 28 160 .175 183 2 0 2 20 60 47 28 10 1.97
Interestingly, his G/F numbers contradict what was posted above, but only silghtly. They have him at 102/58, which is a 1.76 G/F ratio.
Good point Grizz. Pitchers who walk a lot of hitters accumulate more plate appearances from which to inflate their groundball or strikeout outs.
On arbitration:
(which is something we definitely want to avoid).
That may not be the case. After all, arbitration awards are based on service time much more than any other factor. Even ace young pitchers are limited because they only get compared to other performances by players early in their service time. Arbitration, especially the first year, would severely underprice a healthy (and performing) Felix compared to the free market.
If you’re going to buy out arbitration years, you want those on the cheap or the overall contract should reflect that paying them really any money through those years is a boon to them. Otherwise, haul ‘em to arb for two years and then cut a deal.
A 1.76 GB/FB ratio is very good for a pitcher who can feel confident about locating “up” in the strikezone any time he chooses. I think of Felix as a toolbox. He is jammed full of tools to overflowing. He has different tools to get hitters out via groundball, flyball, and strikeout.
35 – Yeah Im not overly surprised about the contradiction in numbers. I just did mine real quick from the game logs, meaning I’m sure there are some human error mistakes. Also, if it didnt specifically say “groundball” and it was a ball in play I assumed flyballness (line drives to infielders for outs, popouts etc). May explain some variability based on methodology. Finally, I more than happily concede to stats that probably were not put togethor by some 21 year old kid sitting around in boxers killing time before he must get ready for work.
BTW, i think I dropped a 1 somewhere. Believe gbs should be 118. Bring ratio to 118:79 or 1.49gb/fb. Ill stop posting now. I swear.
37, DMZ – I agree with everything you say. Of course, the caveat is whether under the next CBA there will even be arbitration, or maybe a system that is a lot different than this one.
My comment about wanting to avoid arbitration should be viewed in the context of a post that recognized that Felix would have to take less $$ yearly than he would make in shorter deals, in exchange for greater security and the club taking the risk of injury instead of him. Also, though you’re absolutely right about arbitration being performance/$$ comparisons to other players of similar service time, I would still expect Felix — like Freddy before him — to set records for arbitration awards. I would still rather buy out the last two years of arbitration, exchanging longer-term security for a lower contract $$ levels in earlier years, than play the arbitration game. But, excellent point.
#18:
Median GB% for pitchers is somewhere around 60%. So GB% (and, hence FB%) will also not be normally distributed. Normalized FB% should be normally distributed, though.
Another advantage of normalized rates is that the number itself is the comparison of a pitchers GB rate to the norm. You don’t need to go through the extra mental step of recalling the typical number and comparing the observed rate with the norm.
So if Felix were to have a normalized GB% of 3.2, then we would know immediately that he generates 3.2x as many groundballs as an average major league pitcher. Similarly, if Mateo has a normalized GB% of 0.3, then we know he generates only 30% as many groundballs as a league average pitcher.
Slight tangent here — if what Bavasi said at the Ballpark Feed is correct (innings will be limited to 10x player’s age, including ST and winter ball IP), Felix should have about 75-76 more IP before the M’s shut him down. Although I know he pitched winter ball in the winter of ’03-’04, I’m pretty sure he didn’t this past winter. He pitched 13.1 innings in ST, 88 innings in Tacoma (per Callis/BA from the post above), and 13 so far in two MLB starts. If that’s right, he has 75.2 more until he hits 190.
A quick look at the schedule (not considering off days, being pushed back to get a look at a 40-man pitcher called up after 9/1, etc., but just every fifth game from here on out), Felix could get 10 more starts, including the final game of the season. Although he may still be on a pitch count limitation for another game or two, there is nothing Bavasi said about innings limitations that would limit him from starting all ten of those (8/15 H, 8/20 A, 8/26 H, 8/31 H, 9/5 A, 9/11 H, 9/16 A, 9/21 A, 9/27 H, 10/2 H).
Ten to twelve starts should give Dave a pretty good sample size to figure this stuff out . . ..
#28 Um, isn’t that the approach we tried with A-Rod? Contracts and personal/family issues are about the only things that hold ballplayers to their current cities. Loyalties like we saw with Edgar are celebrated because they are so unusual. Of course, that goes the other way with team loyalties too. Just the nature of the job.
I’ve always been curious about G/F ratios–what are line drives considered as? Flyballs? If so, what is the point where a line drive becomes a groundball? If it touches the ground before reaching the outfield?
I raise my glass to new future beginnings for the M’s. They have risen from the dead before and I’m betting they will do it again.
Price said in the PI this morning that Felix will get nine more starts if everything goes as expected. 9 * 8 = 72 more IP at the outside; probably closer to 54. I think he’s well within targets. I hope Hargrove can resist the temptation to take him over 100 pitches in any of them.
#s 29-30…I’m fearing a Major League 2-type incident…last thing we want from Felix is Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn’s sophomore season.
The Value of a Groundball
A couple of probably useful (though hard to validate) pieces of data to begin with:
(1) The Hardball Times Glossary, explaining the “HR/Fly” concept, claims that “Research has shown that about 11% to 12% of outfield flies are hit for home runs.”
(2) Also, taking a quick average on the Hardball Times stats pages (if I’m understanding them correctly), about 12% of fly balls seem to be infield popups. This means that the overall HR/fly percentage is about 10% (with infield flies thrown into the mix).
(3) Mike Emeigh, responding to Chris Dial in reply #7 of this BTF thread, wrote that:
In 2003, ground balls were converted into outs 73.6% of the time. … The fly ball out percentage was 87.2%; the line drive out percentage was 27.2%. Those percentages aren’t terribly different from what I’ve seen in past seasons, maybe a bit higher than usual.
In this context, Emeigh is of course talking about balls in play (excluding home runs). Adjusting for that, about 87.2% * (1 – 10%) = 78% of fly balls are hits (whether singles, doubles, triples, or home runs).
So a typical batting average on ground balls would be about .270 (rounding to the nearest ten points), and a typical average on flies (including popups but excluding line drives) would be about .220 (assuming that Emeigh’s data are fairly representative of overall MLB performance).
But the slugging averages would be much different. I can only make a rough guess, but .300 seems reasonable for grounders (a few might sneak down the line for doubles, but triples and homers would be rare). But for fly balls (again, not counting line drives), about half of the hits are in homers, and the other half are in play with (I estimate) about 1.5 total bases per hit, for an overall average of about 2.75 total bases per flyball hit, and a slugging percentage on flyballs in the neighborhood of 2.75 * .220 = .605 (let’s round that to .600 since we’re making no pretense to precision here).
So the OPS on flies is about .820, to about .570 on groundballs. Pretty big difference, that. More precisely, a fly ball is about .300 better for the hitter on slugging (an advantage of about .30 * .34 = .10 runs per contact), and about .050 worse OBP (a disadvantage of about .05 * .43 = .02), for a net advantage of .08 runs for the batter on a flyball (or, equivalently, .08 runs for the pitcher on a grounder).
Now– still excluding line drives from the discussion– we typically see about 25 grounders-plus-flies per 9 innings (40 plate appearances, minus 6 K’s, 3 BB’s, and about 6 LD’s). An average pitcher seems to have a G/F of about 1.3 by the Hardball Times definition, or a G/(G+F) of 57%. If Felix can sustain, say, an 80% G/(G+F)– 23% better than average– that will be worth about 6 extra grounders per game, or about half a run per game.
(Note that that’s without taking credit for any advantage he might or might not have in LD%, which would be a separate discussion.)
G/F is not, of course, the biggest component of a pitcher’s success; I’d look for K rate first, BB rate second, and G/F third. But even so, in extreme cases (which it seems like Felix might be), a good groundball rate can make a significant contribution to a pitcher’s career.
Dave,
Just for the sake of clarity: The statistics you cited at the beginning of this thread are GO/FO ratios, right? Which only count balls in play that are turned into outs, right? And in which a line drive caught is a “FO,” right? As opposed to the whole sorting of balls in play into ground balls, fly balls, and line drives, subjectively, regardless of whether they result in outs, or are in play (not HRs), as compiled proprietarily, and cited by Paul Covert, right?
TIA,
Brian
37 – Players can argue to ignore their service time if they make some sort of special contribution – like if Felix won a Cy Young Award. Then he’d just get compared to other Cy Young calibre pitchers, and we’d end up paying him $12 million.
Brian,
No, the ESPN numbers (which are the ones I used) are groundball and flyball, as determined by Stats Inc. They are different from groundout/flyout, and should include all balls hit on the ground or in the air, regardless of outcome.
37 – Players can argue to ignore their service time if they make some sort of special contribution – like if Felix won a Cy Young Award. Then he’d just get compared to other Cy Young calibre pitchers, and we’d end up paying him $12 million.
Sort of. You get to argue your case on your merits (“including but not limited to overall performance, special qualities of his career contribution…”) but the arbitrator’s instructed to pay “particular attention, for comparative salary purposes” to other players with equal service time.
The player can say that that’s irrelevant because of “special accomplishment” which merits comparing to other players regardless of service time or contract status, and the arbitrator then considers this as part of any other argument. Even if you win a Cy Young award, and wish to introduce the salaries of other Cy Young winners, that argument doesn’t, once won, mean that service time is no longer relevant at all. It only means that you evidence on equivalent salaries will be weighted with the service time arguments in determining which of the two numbers is closer.
#44… Jim, I don’t think we really disagree here. The loyalties of a player to a franchise and vice versa is flimsy, at best. It’s not necessarily a good idea for either side to bank on it. I think building a good franchise around a player as opposed to sinking all future contract money into that player (the Mike Sweeney approach) is a better way to go. In the ARod case, his decision to abandon the M’s in 2000, still left the team in pretty good shape in 2001, wouldn’t you say? It’s like hedging your bet.
I’m simply going to enjoy these next 6 years and not worry too much about what happens after that. And I will try to hold my tongue and avoid the Monday morning quarterback recriminations against management if we actually lose him on the 7th year.
Thanks, Dave, I guess I should have reviewed for your source citation, and looked up their definitions. Sorry for the inconvenience.
I sure hope that Scott Boras doesn’t get Felix’s phone number from Adrian.
Actually, Bavasi seems to have a pretty good working relationship with Boras. It is one thing that I am definitely greatful for in regards to Bavasi. If Boras continues to attract top talent to his agency, then having a GM that knows how to deal with that agency is definitely a plus.
Dave – Simple suggestion on the s.d. problem. Divide mean by s.d. and use those to judge the variability. Samples with higher means many times, and specifically in this instance, will naturally have higher s.d.’s because larger numbers are involved. Alternatively, you could calculate F/G ratios and it would look like the flyball pitchers were more variable.
On nicknames: The fastball has one already–”ultima ratio regum.” And that sticks even if the curve becomes his out pitch.
Or, for short, “The Argument”. Like the Fugazi song (and album)
Actually, I also envision “Ultima Ratio Regum” as two-strike chant, sung with clearly Latin pronunciation, and the proper Gregorian descending pitch interval on the final syllable of each word:
“Ool-tee-mah . . . rah-tee-oh . . . ray-goom”
Oh yeah.
“Small sample size police!” – wow! A term whose time has come. And on the heels of “King Felix.”
David, you’re on a roll.
Well, it someone hasn’t mentioned this already, this may put more pressure on Bavasi to keep a very good defense infield. I think there is no way he’ll get a power guy with shitty defense for the infield. He’s gotta keep his stars happy. So I see this having a trickle down affect on the roster. Morse surely is gone from SS and Willie will never become the 2B. Morse may become the 2B but I bet the FO will hope to find something lucky: a 2001-Boone version. Any “big” bats will probably be at the expensive of Reed’s or Doyle’s (unfortunately) playing time. This in turn could mean Raul back in left if Bucky proves to be a cheap power bat DH they are looking for. The 2006 roster will be very interesting.
Thanks for the thread, Dave; this is the only place in ‘town’ one can follow a discussion of this kind.
Looking at #35, Dave, it would appear that lefties actually hit more flyballs than groundballs off Felix El Rey. Which makes sense, since lefthand batters tend to hit the low ball better, not least because the also get a better look at the pitch. OTH, lefties also struck out more. The sample isn’t large to be sure, but this suggests something interesting to come: Felix has a slider, and that pitch may very well just eat. lefties. up. He annihilates righties now. With a slider boring in on the lefthand batters . . . This cat’s got it all.
“He’s a frontline major league starting pitcher right now.”
Oh yummy! I’m going on Monday.