Statistical Breakdown of the King
Lately, there has been an outbreak of “rationalism” in regards to our talk of Felix Hernandez. The responses go something like “sure, he’s good, but it was the Tigers, Twins, and Royals, all of the games in extremely pitcher friendly parks”, which is all true. But there is a thin line between rationalism and skepticism, and at this point, there’s no reason to be skeptical of King Felix. Below are his numbers through his 3 starts and where they would rank in the American League if he qualified for the ERA title:
ERA: 0.86 (1st)
Fielding Independant ERA: 1.66 (1st)
Line Drive Percentage: 9.6 % (1st)
G/F rate: 4.11 (1st)
Infield Fly Rate: 22 % (1st)
K/G: 10.6 (1st)
BB/G: 1.5 (5th)
HR/G: 0.0 (1st)
K/BB: 7.00 (2nd)
WHIP: 0.67 (1st)
Opponents BA: .153 (1st)
Opponents OBP: .191 (1st)
Opponnents SLG: .153 (1st)
The average hitter Felix has faced so far has a season line of .269/.327/.406. Against Felix, they are hitting .153/.191/.153. He has cut the opponents hitters OPS by 53 percent over what they are against the rest of the league. For comparison, Roger Clemens average opponent has a season line of .256/.325/.405, and are hitting .188/.245/.255. Clemens has cut opponents OPS lines by 32 percent. Even adjusting for opponents, Felix has been dominant on a level that no other pitcher in baseball, even Roger Clemens, has matched.
Other random ridiculous Felix notes:
He has yet to allow an extra base hit. I have yet to see a ball hit that I even think had a chance to go for more than a single.
He’s thrown 8 innings in less than 100 pitches in back-to-back starts.
Through the first five innings of each start, his groundball/flyball mark stands at 27 to 3.
Yes, its 3 starts. It is only 21 innings. It’s a small sample size. He can’t pitch like this all year. Let’s see what he does on the road against a good offense. Yada yada yada.
For three starts, Felix has been the best pitcher in baseball. His next start comes Saturday night in Minnesota. Make a date to watch brilliance in action once again.
Comments
78 Responses to “Statistical Breakdown of the King”
Yeah but…Yeah but….nevermind. He’s ridiculous. The bumfuzzler was on last night.
I just read a story were Bavasai said he was pissed either at spiesio batting with a man on 2nd and 3rd are not getting him in .I couldnt tell which one he was talking about!Well im pissed your still are GM and by the way you signed him to a 3 year 10 million dollar deal and no dont try and blame gillick thats all you Billyboy.How can this guy be pissed everyone talks about Beltre ans Sexsons signs break down the rest of them its sickining..I hope pokey caught a 1.2 million dollar fish this summer!!!
Terrific analysis and research in this one. I appreciate the Clemmons reference as he, to my eye, has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. Talk about a lack of run support.
Great stuff, Dave. There are only two real questions in my mind about Felix right now, and neither puts into question how amazing he’s been thus far. What I want to know is, 1)How he deals with adversity, and 2)Can he hold up for a full season’s worth of a Major League workload.
And that’s it. The groundball ratio is sick thus far. I knew he was an outstanding groundball pitcher, but it’s been filthy to this point. I honestly can’t believe how good Felix could be. Baseball HQ had a rather pedestrian look at Hernandez’ abilities and future the other day, claiming he could either be a Jake Peavy or a Roy Halladay-type pitcher. Um, BHQ… it sure looks like he could be a wicked combo of both. How come everyone wants to pigeonhole the King? It certainly appears that, if healthy, he could make even the best projections look somewhat silly.
4.11. That’s just unfair with the rest of his skillset
The unknown bothers people. That is why so many people are interested in coming up with comparisons for Felix. It happens in the music business, art world, etc. People aren’t comfortable until they can say… “Oh, she is just like so and so, and her stuff is so similar!”
He’s still on track to facee the Yankees on the 31st. (A game I’m going to
– Hopefully we’ll see him destroy a good offense then.
I’ve watched the highlights, and he looks good.
But, why is his performance so different from this year’s minor leagues? With Tacoma, he had 100 K and 48 BB in 88 IP. Nothing exciting. In A/AA, he was 263/74, which is sensational. For comparison purposes, Clemens, in single A at age 20, had 36 K and NO walks. In AA and AAA (age 20/21), he totalled 109 and 26 in 99 IP. Gooden at age 18 was 300/112 in single A.
Was the King “experimenting” with Tacoma this year?
I’m still interested in seeing how he fairs when his location is off for a game. Despite his amazing control so far, it is hard to believe that his slight wildness from the minors has dissapeared (unless there is any truth to the “Felix got bored down there” theory). I suspect one game, he’ll have trouble throwing that curve for strikes and locating the fastball, and then we will truly see what great stuff he has, when he continues to succeed.
Yeah, what tangotiger said . . .
One theory has it that he’s throwing his fastball a lot here in Seattle, which he seems to have great command of. In Tacoma he might have been working on his breaking and offspeed pitches, leading to the 100/48 ratio.
Bavasi seems to say it best… Felix was running out of challenges in AAA. He needed a higher level of competition in order to keep improving.
But, why is his performance so different from this year’s minor leagues? With Tacoma, he had 100 K and 48 BB in 88 IP. Nothing exciting. In A/AA, he was 263/74, which is sensational. For comparison purposes, Clemens, in single A at age 20, had 36 K and NO walks. In AA and AAA (age 20/21), he totalled 109 and 26 in 99 IP. Gooden at age 18 was 300/112 in single A.
Was the King “experimenting†with Tacoma this year?
When I was back in Seattle, Curto (Rainiers broadcaster) and I hung out for several hours, and we talked about Felix quite a bit. They were tracking his pitch-by-pitch stats, and one of the things he noted was that hitters in Triple-A only swung at his curveball 5 percent of the time he threw it. They knew they couldn’t hit it, so they didn’t even try. I don’t think it was so much that he was experimenting, as much as it was the hitters approach was along the lines of “we have no chance if he throws strikes”, so it led to a lot of deep counts, which led to a high-ish walk rate. Triple-A umpiring was almost certainly a factor as well.
One theory has it that he’s throwing his fastball a lot here in Seattle, which he seems to have great command of.
Actually, the opposite is true. In Tacoma, the only pitch he couldn’t command regularly was the fastball. When he got behind in the count, you could almost count on a curve or a change coming, because he knew he could throw those for strikes. His command of his fastball has been the biggest surprise since his callup; in Tacoma, there were times where he had no idea where the fastball was going. We haven’t seen that Felix yet.
Rusty,
Well, you’d think it would be that way, but Felix has had tremendous command of his duece and change, it has been his fastball that he struggled with in Tacoma.
I’m not trying to be the chicken little and rain on this parade, but… Did anyone else notice that felix’s velocity was down a little bit last night? I was shocked watching his start against the royals that he was still consistently touching 97 in his 7th and 8th innings of work. In last night’s eight, he was in the 94-95 range.
I’m hoping that he is learning that he doesn’t need to get the ball up there at 97 late in the game and that he can get hitters out with less than 100% effort pitches. The alternative is unbearable to think about right now
.
dave
So what happens when he gets bored of major league competition? At this pace, that should happen in about 2 weeks.
So what happens when he gets bored of major league competition? At this pace, that should happen in about 2 weeks.
He retires, takes up basketball, flails around for a while, comes back to baseball…
13. He falls back to his true love, interpretive dance.
The Twins will be facing him for the second time, in their Home(r)Dome. That should hold off the King’s boredom for at least one more start.
Is Felix >95% for starting Friday, 8-26 against the White Sox?
Felix has 21 Ks so far. What do think the chances are that in just two months of pitching, he ends up leading the team in that category? (currently Moyer with 77)
Is Felix >95% for starting Friday, 8-26 against the White Sox?
Yep. His next two home starts should be against the White Sox on 8/26 and the Yankees on 8/31.
Felix has 21 Ks so far. What do think the chances are that in just two months of pitching, he ends up leading the team in that category? (currently Moyer with 77)
0 %. Moyer will end the year with at least 100. Felix would have to average 10 strikeouts every start for the rest of the year to get there.
Woo. I just happened to have tickets to the 8-26 game.
Another somewhat random question regarding scoring and baseball rules for the regulars: Why didn’t Hargrove send Felix out for the ninth, let him take his warmups, and THEN remove him for Nelson? I would have loved to have seen Felix get a proper send-off from the crowd; he really deserved it after his outing. If i remember correctly, this used to be done for RJ when he pitched a great game.
So, if a batter is announced, you do NOT throw a pitch, and you are removed, is that your batter ir the next pitcher’s batter? IE, if felix had come out for the ninth just to be removed and get a standing ovation, and nelson had given up a HR on the next pitch, whose ER would that have been?
Dave,
So if everything goes according to plan in terms of health and no rainouts, will Felix start in Anaheim on the 4th? I’m going to be in L.A. during that series, and I wanted to catch a Felix game if at all possible.
If he stays on track, he won’t pitch in Anaheim.
20
Nelson’s
If he struck the guy out, it would also be Nelson’s.
Or if he got the guy to pop out, it would be Nelson’s.
Moyer will end the year with at least 100.
As long as his back doesn’t start acting up again. Anyway, I know it’s unrealistic, but just the possibility is an impressive/nauseating thought (according to whether you’re talking about how good Felix is, or how awful the rest of the staff is).
#20. I am not a big fan of sending a pitcher out in the 9th for warmups and then pull him for a standing O. I was at the game and I thought he got an excellent ovation when he came off the field in the 8th. Everyone in the stadium knew he was done for the night at that point. I think the 9th/warmups/ovation stunt shows up the other team. KC, having lost 16 in a row, doesn’t need that.
During the pre-game last night, I heard Niehaus refer to Felix as ‘King Felix the 1st’ … dave, how does that make you feel, to have achieved greatnesss in giving Felix his moniker, only to have niehaus rip it away from you and pervert it? Let’s hope it doesn’t continue.
At the game last night, my girlfriend started asking me how baseball is played. I’m falling in love. I owe it to King Felix.
Just a nitpick about statistics: yes, Felix would be the best pitcher in the league compared only to those pitchers who qualify for the ERA title. But is there anyone else who doesn’t qualify for the ERA title who ranks ahead of him in any of those listed categories? Just so you’re comparing apples to apples?
I don’t mean that to take anything away from Felix. I am appropriately in awe.
What is that pitch King Felix is throwing? I recognize his heavy two-seam sinker, the four seamer, the curve and the changeup. However, he is also throwing a pitch that comes in about 94-94, fastball speed, but breaks right, almost like a change. Is that a cutter or what?
Great topic. I was doing some research in the glow of the Kings performance. The season that Clemens is having, might be one the best all-time. Throwing in a Hitter’s park with very little run support, let’s look at some statistical comparisons between Clemens and the M’s staff this year…
Clemens has allowed more than 2 Earned Runs TWICE this season in 24 games; 11 Wins.
(In the same number of games, Gil Meche has finished the 7th inning just FOUR times; 10 Wins)
In his 4 losses, Clemens has given up a total of 8 Earned Runs.
(Aaron Sele gave up 8 or more Earned Runs twice. 6 or more 6 times.)
In his other 20 games, Clemens has given up 16 Earned Runs.
(Meche has given up 16 in his last three starts)
Clemens has 9 No-Decisions while only giving up a total of 6 Runs .
(Meche has 6 No-Decesions and 21 Earned Runs.)
Clemens hasn’t allowed a run during his last two starts and it only lowered his ERA .13 points to 1.32.
(5 Mariner starters with over 20 starts have a mean ERA of 5.16)
Clemens has a Batting Average Allowed of .186, On Base Average Allowed of .245, & Slugging Allowed of .255.
(The Mariner’s starters have a combined .286 BAA, .351 OBA, & .455 SLG)
Felix is now 13th in rookie pitcher VORP, 1st in VORP/IP (min 4.0 VORP)(if that’s a stat that means anything), with only two others even in the same class.
Hernandez .5095 (21 IP)
Cabrera .5038 (13.1 IP)
Street .4579 (57 IP)
Woo-hoo! My 16-game plan suddenly ROCKS…I have tickets for both Friday the 26th and Wednesday the 31st!
Just a nitpick about statistics: yes, Felix would be the best pitcher in the league compared only to those pitchers who qualify for the ERA title. But is there anyone else who doesn’t qualify for the ERA title who ranks ahead of him in any of those listed categories? Just so you’re comparing apples to apples?
Yes, but they’re relievers, and comparing relievers to starters isn’t comparing apples to apples.
What is that pitch King Felix is throwing? I recognize his heavy two-seam sinker, the four seamer, the curve and the changeup. However, he is also throwing a pitch that comes in about 94-94, fastball speed, but breaks right, almost like a change. Is that a cutter or what?
I’m pretty sure what you’re referring to was his 2-seam late in the game last night, when he started getting a bit tired and lost a little bit off his velocity.
26 – I think it was Jason who came up with King Felix, actually.
I wonder how Felix’s performance has buoyed the Mariner offense. I know it didn’t happen in the first two games but the guys sure looked loose last night.
Is there any statistical analysis or proof that this type of thing takes place with dominant starters on the mound?
Is there any statistical analysis or proof that this type of thing takes place with dominant starters on the mound?
No. The results of offensive performance are independant of the team’s starting pitcher for that day.
26 – I think it was Jason who came up with King Felix, actually.
It was Dave. Jason was the first one to use it in public, though, so.
Looks like all the good work done on this site is getting some attention. I’m not very computer savvy, so I won’t try to offer the actual link – but espn.com has an article on Page 2 raving about King Felix and also gives mention to the ussmariner. Long time reader, first time I’ve posted – congrats on the publicity and keep up the good work.
Re #36 — No; just look at Clemens this season (as noted in #30) for a counterexample.
Well, I guess it’s just a matter of time before the Worldwide Leader offers Derek or Dave a job (to go along with the other locals they’ve hired, like Jim Caple and Frank Hughes).
I don’t know if anybody has had a chance to read David Schoenfield’s ESPN article on King Felix yet, but there is a mention of USSM there.
I’m interested to see Felix develop and see how he stacks up against the game’s other stud young pitcher who put up ridiculous minor league stats with wicked stuff: Rich Harden.
There’s a post on the front of this fine site about that ESPN article.
When Rich Harden was Felix’s age, he was posting a 3.39 ERA… in the Northwest League.
If Felix stays healthy, turning into Rich Harden would be something like his worst case scenario. He’s that good.
Since we’re making comparisons, how does Felix compare to Zach Duke so far?
I know Duke had a rough outing his last time out, but other than that he’s been awesome.
I’ve seen almost all of Duke’s starts, because I’m a big fan, and there’s really no comparison. Duke’s stuff isn’t as awesome. And I say that even as I admit he’s been quite impressive and I like him a lot.
Felix is something else entirely.
A Boston fan last night, a drunken college boy, yelled that Felix will be on the Red Sox in no time. The chauvinism died as he became sober.
I’d pay to see Felix the Cat versus Marmaduke.
I looked at game logs from MiLB for Felix and got this (starts only)…
GB/FB-2.04
LD%-8.95%
XBH%-3.7%
Stop using that name….grrrrr….
How many innings does he need to be limited to to retain his rookie status? This question also relates to his future free agent status.
Rookie status is used up once he reaches 50 IP, so he won’t be eligible next year unless they take him out of the rotation. Free agency is based on six full years of service time, so this year won’t matter unless he has another partial year, and it’s not like they’re going to send him back to the minors after spring training next year.
50 innings, or a number of days on the roster I can’t recall.
jason
I think its 65 days
Okay so I went to both of Felix’s home games and am duly impressed beyond words. One thing: last night he lost a little zip and location of his fastball after cooling down during the bottom of the 5th, but he did what a good pitcher needs to, went to his other pitches for the outs. All of a sudden he’s throwing 2-3 changeups in a row and getting the outs cause his fastball started riding high in the zone. That’s the approach of someone who is confident in more than 1 pitch and can pitch his way out of a jam. One question for the baseball gods here: Felix at one point had I believe 18 scoreless innings pitched in a row between his starts. Any ideas when the last Mariners pitcher to do that was? Johnson? Sele? Moyer? Bosio? Garcia? I can’t remember back to back to back dominating performances like that since maybe 2001.
FWIW — Last year Madritsch finished 4th among rookie pitchers with a 28.0 VORP in 11 starts (plus 4 relief appearances). King Felix would get 11 starts if he stays on schedule. I would think he’ll surpass Madritsch’s number (assuming VORP is comparable year-to-year).
More important is his arbitration-eligibility. Anyone at two years or less is not eligible. Everyone at 3+ is. The guys in between are subject to the specific rule (something like the 17% of the guys with the most service time are eligible). In Felix’s case, he probably doesn’t qualify. That’s why you have teams that bring up their prospects in July or later, so that they can clear this hurdle.
The super-twos that Tango references are based on the upper 1/6th (16.6%) of players with 2 years of service in terms of service days. There’s no way that Felix hits the super-two mark. He’s not going to be arb eligible until after 2008.
Dave, thanks, I was trying to remember the term. Do you know the number of days that was the threshhold in the past few years?
The cutoff is usually around the 125 days of service mark. Basically, everyone up after June 1st is usually not going to make it. I don’t remember a recent case of a super-two being called up after the all-star break.
de omnibus dubitandum est
I will call him ‘King” and “Great” and all these other wonderful adjectives when the season is over. For now I enjoy the phenomenal perforances but do not get carried away to the point of comparing him with Roger Clemens, aside from the banal fact that they are both right-handed pitchers who throw hard and are tough to hit.
Felix has not given up an extra base hit in 21 innings. Have any of the other pitchers gone 21 pitches without giving up an extra base hit?
More small sample size goodness about King Felix:
His line against righties: 10.1 IP, 8H, 2BB 12K – .205/.303/.205… not bad at all
His line against lefties: 10.2 IP, 3H!!!, 1B, 9k – .088/.121/.088
Lefties he’s faced include: Carlos Guillen, Dmitri Young, a fiery hot David Dejesus, Jacque Jones, Justin Morneau, and Joe Mauer.
King Felix turns every left-handed hitter into Scott Spiezi-O-for-Four.
Lefties hit him better than righties in Tacoma. He allowed something like two extra base hits to right-handed hitters all year.
No, lefties are hitting better than the Speez
I am hoping that the 8/31 game is a rubber match against the Yankee’s with Randy Johnson pitching for the pin stripes. Now that would be interesting.
It would only be interesting because it’s Felix. As a rubber game between the Mariners and Yankees could hardly be more meaningless (esp. to us), what game it is doesn’t matter.
The gods of baseball willing, I’ll be sitting in the Homerdome on Saturday night watching my beloved M’s live for the first time in two years. Let’s face it, folks, it’s been that long since catching a live game has been worth the 14 hours on the road and $200USD for a room.
Sure, it’s only been 3 games, but all hail Felix for giving us something to hope for.
Of course it would be because of Felix, but also Randy and his history here. Passing of the old jerk to the next generation of great Mariner pitcher. Plus with our history with NY. Doesn’t matter if either is playoff bound or not…still a lot of history.
I concede. It would be interesting.
The best thing about last night’s game: no wave. Attention was actually focused on the game. Felix, the Wave Killer.
They tried to start the wave in the cheap seats around the 8th. It never got going though.
One more stupid Felix stat: after three games, he’s now third on the team in “RP”, Runs Prevented, and first among starters. Only Eddie and Mateo are above him. That’s not as incredible as it sounds, seeing as how EVERY OTHER Mariners starter is in negative numbers. RP is based on average, not replacement value, as VORP is.
Felix is still behind by a little in VORP, as our entire rotation except for him is pretty much the dictionary definition of “replacement level”, being only an insignificant fraction better than the thousands and thousands of freely available losers available for free elsewhere.
Except for one diamond in the dross.
Hello everyone. I’m a die-hard Mariner fan who’s been living on the East coast for the past 15+ years. I recently found this site and I wanted to thank you all for posting such insightful comments. I am finally among kindred spirits.
As for King Felix, he certainly adds excitement to an otherwise disappointing season. Reading ESPN’s piece reminded me of Rob Neyer’s column several years ago about Ryan Anderson, and how he was far and above the AAA competition. This brings up the question to those fortunate enough to see Felix pitch … how did he compare with the Little Unit, when he was his dominant self in Tacoma before the injuries?
Felix >>>>> Ryan Anderson.
My great pleasure to be at the game for last night’s game, with Mr. Lucky pitching. Comments on the game thread were closed off two minutes before I got online yesterday, so here’s a word or three on Felix and Co. from the stands.
Re: the Little Evil (El Gato’s change-up, that is) not only is the change-up 10+mph slower than his fastball BUT STILL AT 86 AS GOOD AS MANY PITCHER’S FASTBALLS, and in addition to the fact that it bends in mid patch like macaroni, consider this: it’s a strike. Perfect location down in the zone, and Felix repeats it again and again. The hitters can’t touch it if they swing, but they’ll get rung up if they don’t. Plenty of guys can’t get their change-up over for a strike, it’s just a ”nother look’ pitch; with El Gato it might be his best pitch. Felix uses it to finish batters off, too, which demonstrates a very mature understanding of the game. With two strikes on them, the hitters have to be thinking Big Heat while worrying about Big Evil (the curve), or at the very least be swinging to protect the plate– and they get Little Evil in the zone. . . . It just ain’t fair, to them. *hee hee-hee*
I think the comparison of Felix to Kerry Wood is very apt, at least in terms of their level of talent and immediate impact. Mr. Lucky is the best pitching package to come up since Wood [Prior just never got into a groove], but not only does Felix have the Little Evil, and good command, unlike the Cubbie, he’s smarter _right now_ than Kerry Wood is ever going to be. Think about these last two games. When Felix has had a trouble spot with men on base, he’s been perfectly willing to throw the ground ball pitch—sinker or curve—thus not only using his defense, but avoiding the bases-clearing XB hit, and most especially staying away from the multi-run dinger. Unlike almost anyone else with his kind of fastball, he doesn’t necessarily reach for the K when in trouble. That is just so impressive to see. Before Felix, I have to think back to Clemens at his peak. (Pedro had great, great stuff, but it took managers years to figure out he should be starting). Clemens had perhaps even better control, but Felix has the change-up and the Death Ray slider we haven’t even seen yet—and El Gato is also three years younger without several seasons of U of T abuse in his arm. But then again, in three starts what has El Rey given up, 1 W and 1 HBP (which the batter dived into, BTW)? This is the stat focus I’ll be looking at as Felix faces better offensive teams, does his walk rate stay down? It won’t stay that low, obviously, but as long as Felix is willing to throw the groundball rather than walk guys, the other team is going to have tremendous difficulty getting a rally going.
I wondered if Grover would bring Felix back out for the 8th after the long Mariners inning, but I was glad to see it. Felix wasn’t at his pitch count, had tired a little but pitched through it quite well, thank you, and it’s good to challenge him WITHIN REASON, so this was a fine place for it. He rose to what challenge it amounted to extremely well, didn’t give the Royals even a millimeter of daylight, nothing. That’s just the kind of attitude in the guy every pitching coach and manager wants to cultivate, and you can’t do it by ‘pre-guessing’ what he’ll bring to the mound between his heart and his cojones. I don’t need for Felix to be truly great, yet; just to go out and pitch ahead in the count with command for the rest of the season. He’s faced lightweight competition so far, but he’s about to see better hitting teams for the next month, and that’s fine. But as Dave said in Felix’s last game thread, Mr. Lucky is _already_ one of the best pitchers in the majors, not next year, not next month, but right now, baby. Three starts, and there’s only a dozen guys, total, starting major league games who you’d value as much on the mound when your team takes the field. Right now.
Mike Morse is trying as hard as he can at short—and only just holding his own, barely. He doesn’t have the quickness, it’s clear, either hand or foot. A great idea at the plate, he has that, yes, and he could probably do well at 3B, but where does he fit on this team, then? Traded out, but not for peanuts. Dude understands how to hit, and he comes to play.
YuBet looked absolutely cool in person, perfect angle to the ball, hands like cotton candy, great instincts; the only two plays he looked bad on both involved _very_ late feeds from Morse that hung him (Yunie) out to dry. I was so much enjoying watching Betancourt, at times I lost track of the game situation with Felix, that’s how good he was. Yunie didn’t have a great day at the plate but he wasn’t looking foolish, either. If it wasn’t for the fact the Felix came up at the same time, we’d all be talking about the tremendous talent which the Ms have in Yubet, and drooling; instead, he seems almost an also ran. Betancourt will never play another inning in the minors that’s not rehab years and years from now.
Sexon’s HR was the best blast I have seen by a Mariner since when I can remember. Opposite field smoker, looked like it was going to punch through the stands onto the railroad tracks. EEEEE-yowwwWWWWW! Worth the $38 seat I was polishing between standing ovations.
And Ichi’s bullet HR: It is my opinion that since June or so Ichiro is _deliberately_ trying to drive the ball more in specific game situations, such as if he comes up with two outs, or with men on base and one or two outs. Not when he’s leading off, not when a rally is only just starting. The Ms offense is not exactly sustaining rallies, is it? So it looks to me that Ichiro is looking to get the runs in himself if there are a couple of outs. Oh, he’s picking his spots, but I think his long balls are the product of a deliberate hitting game plan on his part; he’s hit some hard, deep fly balls for outs too in just these kinds of situations, where I never used to see him drive the ball in the air before. It has been obvious to just about everyone that Ichiro could hit HRs regularly in a game if he wanted to. He’s supremely disciplined in what he does, though, and from his first game here it seemed he decided, “My job is to get on base, period,” and did everything conceivable in his game to that end. Hitting fly ball outs does _not_ promote that end, and so Ichiro avoided such outcomes in his hitting plan, period. Now, he seems, to me, to have accepted that the team needs for him to get a few more runs in given the present context, so he’s fine tuned his hitting game subtly to that end. . . . I think Ichiro could hit 20 HRs a year, automatically, bank on it, if he decides to, without fundamentally altering his game, just pick his spots like he’s doing now. I really hope he does that.
What a cool game to see with me and my best buddy.