The Attrition War, Phillies

DMZ · August 20, 2005 at 8:50 pm · Filed Under General baseball 

(I can’t believe there was a time I thought I’d whip these out, one after another)

Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.

Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Phillies.

Please note that I am trying to refrain from drawing any conclusions or making any comparisons, guessing at causes or relationships, or doing anything but presenting straight data. When the series is finished, I’ll have a summary post where I talk about those things.

In every organization so far there have been are several cases where those stats seem to ignore something important. I’m going at attempt to address those in the summary post, as well as methodology and thoughts on future research directions.

The Phillies had 28 pitchers who appeared at least once on a Baseball America Top Ten prospect list from 1995-2004.

Of those 28, pitchers who injured their elbow and required surgery: 1 (Segovia)
Of those 28, pitchers who injured their shoulders and required surgery: 3 (Baisley, Coggin, Green)
(generally, I’m looking for major surgeries that require ~1y off)

Unknowns: there are several guys who didn’t make it or were ineffective but did not appear to have surgeries
Barely missed it: Randy Wolf just had TJ surgery but I’m trying to maintain a constant timelyne

Contributions welcome!
Readers are, as always, encouraged to to add/correct information here in the comments or by email. Resolving unknowns and citations are particularly welcome.

Detailed data

Dave Coggin, 2/1996, 3/1997, 8/1998, 9/1999
Pitched in 2000-2002 with the Phillies, underwent shoulder surgery in September 2002.

Brandon Duckworth, 9/2001
Traded to the Astros in November 2003 as part of the Billy Wagner deal.

Adam Eaton, 5/1997, 9/1998
Traded to the Padres in November 1999 as part of the Andy Ashby deal.

Gavin Floyd, 3/2002, 1/2003
Appeared in 2004. Pitching in the majors.

Wayne Gomes, 4/1994, 2/1995, 8/1996
Debuted in 1997. Traded to the Giants in July 2001 for Felipe Crespo.

Mike Grace, 5/1996
Pitched from 1995-1999 for the Phillies. A free agent after 1999.

Tyler Green, 1/1994, 8/1995
Pitched 1995, 97-98 for the Phillies. Shoulder surgery cost him the 1996 season. Arthroscopic elbow surgery in September 1997 did not cost him a year.

Cole Hamels, 5/2003
Missed a lot of 2004 with elbow and triceps issues.

Carlton Loewer, 4/1995, 7/1996, 8/1997, 5/1998
Traded to the Padres in November 1999 as part of the Andy Ashby deal.

Ryan Madson, 10/2000, 4/2001, 6/2003, 4/2004
Came up in 2004. Pitching in the majors.

Larry Mitchell, 10/1994
Pitched 12 innings in 1996. Started to have shoulder problems in 1997. Went into coaching after several comeback attempts.

Brett Myers, 3/2000, 2/2001, 2/2002
Came up in 2002, pitching in the majors.

Doug Nickle, 8/2000
Traded to the Cardinals in July 2002 as part of the Scott Rolen dump.

Ryan Nye, 9/1995
Pitched 1997-1998 with the Phillies. Fate unknown.

Elizardo Ramirez, 9/2003, 8/2004
Debuted in 2004. Traded to the Reds in August 2004 as the PTBNL in the Cory Lidle deal.

Zach Segovia, 10/2003
TJ surgery in October 2003. Missed the 2004 season.

Carlos Silva, 10/2002
Traded to the Twins in December 2003 for Eric Milton.

Alfredo Simon, 6/2004 (ne Carlos Cabrera)
Traded to the Giants in July 2004 as part of the Felix Rodriguez deal.

Derrick Turnbow, 6/2000
Selected by the Angels in the December 1999 Rule 5 draft.

Larry Wimberly, 9/1996
Unknown. Went to the Pirates as minor league free agent in 2001.

Randy Wolf, 3/1999
Pitching for the Phillies. Ligament replacement surgery in June 2005, which is technically just under the deadline for counting. Doh.


4 Responses to “The Attrition War, Phillies”

  1. G-Man on August 20th, 2005 10:01 pm

    Derek, nice work on this stuff.

    I’d love to see a chart of all the teams you’ve reviewed with the 2-4 numbers you’ve calculated for each team. Those stats side by side would make this all more vivid.

  2. solap on August 20th, 2005 11:18 pm

    there was an article on LL about pitching prospects which guesses that one of the big problems with seattle pitching injuries is that we tend to select power pitchers who innately have arm problems. he basically uses anecdotal data. it would be interesting to see what kind of pitchers end up with injuries for other teams.

    but i’m sure this already enough work to keep you busy. 🙂

  3. Phillies fan on November 14th, 2005 8:09 am

    ummm… this most certainly was NOT “great” work… Several of the pitchers listed above were lost due to injury, not just for a year, but rather in career ending fashion. You mention Tyler Green and his issues “contributing to his decline.” He had surgery in the second half of the year he made the all star team and NEVER made it back. Mike Grace was constantly injured. I believe his healthiest stretch lasted about 4 starts. Numerous surgeries muddled his career. Zach Segovia missed the entire 2004 season with Tommy John. Adam Eaton had his tommy John surgery at the end of the 2001 season. Derrick Turnbow broke the olecranon, commonly known as the “funny bone” while throwing a pitch in 2001. Missed the season. Shoddy work man.

  4. DMZ on November 14th, 2005 8:16 am

    Please note that each pitcher is only tracked for the period of time they’re with the team. The pitchers you note who were injured after being traded or otherwise moved organizations are counted against their new organizations.

    As for the other issues with whether or not an injury met the standards, check out the “methodology” post, which details this, and how the standards used for the bit sometimes failed to adequately count.

    And lastly, for those particular pitchers: thanks. Green’s been updated with his 1995 shoulder surgery. Mike Grace did not miss a full season (again, see that). Segovia was updated with the October 2003 surgery.