Projecting Felix In 2006
I’ve done a significant number of posts breaking down Felix Hernandez’s statistical performance through his first four starts. What I haven’t done, however, is project what I expect from King Felix going forward. Until now. I’ve been working on a pitcher-projection-system behind the scenes, and I’m finally to the point where I trust the data enough to publish it.
Now, keep in mind, pitchers are weird beasts. No projection system in the world would have forecasted Jamie Moyer’s late career development. Statistical projections are a tool that can be useful, but when combined with pitchers, we need to know that they are still a blunt tool, and especially with a kid who won’t turn 20 until next April, absolutely anything is within the realm of possibility. However, we can use past performance to give us a reasonable window of what to expect. That’s what I believe this projection for Felix provides; an array of reasonable performances for the King in 2006, any of which could occur.
As for the nuts and bolts of the system, I’m going to lean towards brevity. It’s nothing radically different than what others have done before me, I’m sure. Ron Shandler’s projections are based on most of the same assumptions, and I’m actually expecting his postseason projection for Felix to be similar to this one. So why create my own? Well, two basic reasons: I’m impatient and don’t like waiting for someone else to tell me what I want to know, and I don’t have to pay myself for this information. I’m not claiming this system is better than what Shandler or Prospectus or whoever else puts out there. I’m simply claiming as far as accuracy, it’s pretty darn close, and the fact that its available now for no cost makes it a winner in my book.
So, anyways, here’s the basic gist of the system. In any given plate appearance, there are five potential scenarios, one of which will occur each time: a walk/hit by pitch, a strikeout, a ground ball, a fly ball, and a line drive. Of these five outcomes, we know that a pitcher has significant control over the first four, and though the research is still new, it appears that pitchers can exert some control over the amount of line drives they allow as well, though it is less than their control over the other four scenarios. As most people who have read the blog for quite a while know, we believe the current evidence shows that, with some exceptions, most pitchers do not have a repeatable skill that allows them to control the outcome once a player makes contact with the ball. In other words, a pitcher can induce the opponent into hitting a groundball, but he can’t consistently compel the batter to hit a groundout.
So, what I decided to do was create a system that converts each batter faced into a percentage of likely outcomes, much like the last chart I used to break down Felix. We know Felix has significant control over his walk, strikeout, and groundball/flyball rates, so those are what we’re projecting, and the rest of the data populates itself when we put in the league average results based on hit types. Keep in mind, however, these numbers are context neutral, not dependant on the park he plays in or the teammates around him. Pitching in front of the M’s defense and in Safeco should only serve to make his raw numbers even more impressive.
Anyways, that’s a basic overview. For most people, what you really care about are the results, right? Well then, here you go.
Median Projection: The Middle Of the Road Safe Pick
213 innings pitched
128 singles allowed
38 doubles allowed
2 triples allowed
16 home runs allowed
54 walks
207 strikeouts
GB/FB rate: 2.20
Opponents BA: .244
Opponents OBP: .290
Opponents SLG: .324
Component ERA: 2.86
Fielding Independent ERA: 2.99
2005 Performance Comparison: A.J. Burnett
Optimists Projection: The Best We Should Plan For
244 innings pitched (and yes, I realize the team will never let him near that number)
143 singles allowed
42 doubles allowed
2 triples allowed
14 home runs allowed
40 walks
270 strikeouts
GB/FB rate: 3.00
Opponents BA: .237
Opponents OBP: .268
Opponents SLG: .303
Component ERA: 2.38
Fielding Independent ERA: 2.21 (!)
2005 Performance Comparison: No one was this good in 2005. Not even Clemens.
Pessimists Projection: What To Expect If He Struggles
178 innings pitched
116 singles allowed
35 doubles allowed
2 triples allowed
11 home runs allowed
80 walks
160 strikeouts
GB/FB Rate: 1.67
Opponents BA: .257
Opponents OBP: .331
Opponents SLG: .328
Component ERA: 3.39
Fielding Independent ERA: 3.56
2005 Performance Comparison: Carlos Zambrano
Based on Felix’s professional career to date, the pessimistic projection for him next year would make him something like the 5th or 6th best starting pitcher in the American League. The optimistic projection grades him out as better than what Clemens is doing in Houston this year (which, to me, is hard to believe), and would be one of the most remarkable pitching seasons we’ve seen in the history of the game.
I feel the best about the median projection, and that’s along the lines of what I’m expecting next year. And, realistically, if he puts up his median projection next year, he’s going to finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting. People talk about the need to acquire a #1 starter in the offseason. I disagree. We have one.
Comments
105 Responses to “Projecting Felix In 2006”
Agreed. Let’s acquire a #2 then. Oh and maybe something to inject life into the stink that is our offense.
Nice writeup Dave. Countdown to Friday…
Dave,
I agree with you that Felix probably will be a #1 next year, but don’t you think the team needs another potential #1 since their rotation this season not only doesn’t have a #1, it doesn’t have a #2 or a #3? Using the guys that started the most games for the team, the ’05 rotation had a #4 starter (Moyer), a #5 starter (Meche) and three guys that don’t belong in a major league rotation (Pineiro, Franklin and Sele).
If they could add Burnett to Felix they could potentially get by with a rotation with Moyer, Pineiro and a decent #3 guy, say someone equivalent to a Carlos Silva, Jake Westbrook or Danny Haren. Sure, Madrtisch expects to be back but I don’t think they should count on him, nor do I think they will. If Madritsch is healthy, they’d probably be more likely to keep him in the ‘pen and use him as Pineiro
insurance (putting him in the rotation if Pineiro continues to pitch poorly a few starts into the season).
I love you Dave.
While I still don’t think he should be a #1 yet, I like the analysis Dave, and would absolutely take the BB/K ratio in the median classification from Felix. One question, though: what’s the difference between component ERA and fielding independant ERA? I’m new to some of these stats, so I’m not sure how they indicate how good or bad a pitcher really is.
Great post, Dave. And as you know, I’m more apt to push even further than where you’ve already taken Felix’s projections. I believe the “Optimistic” end of your projections is the likeliest outcome (but I’m not taking into account anything other than Hernandez’s amazing ability to deter SLG%, and thusly, Runs). Great work and many thanks for sharing with us, man.
Is there any chance you could post the projections for the rest of the Mariners starters? It might be kind of a downer, but I think it’d be nice to get a little more feel for your projection system before I really buy into its projection for Felix. The methodology seems sound, though. Thanks.
People talk about the need to acquire a #1 starter in the offseason. I disagree. We have one.
The problem is that, logically, the M’s should do what they did with Piniero in 2002- have Felix come out of the bullpen for the first 2-3 weeks to keep his innings down while the off days allow you to skip a starter and keep everyone on normal rotation. Thus Felix shuld end up around 190-200 IP (right around his age).
Not only that, but the rotation is bereft of solid 2/3 level talent- the Freddy Garcia/Andy Pettitte tier, if you will. You might even argue that Jamie, our best starter outside of Felix, is a 5 in a good rotation as opposed to a 4 (based on the fact that you’d really want to skip his turn, if possible, against teams like the Yankees or Boston that will mash him, or games in pitching-unfriendly environments like Texas).
And honestly, nobody on the FA list for this year is really better than a 2/3 anyway. Burnett’s not the ace of his staff (Willis is). Millwood is probably the closest to a #1, but when he was on a GOOD staff (the Braves), he sure wasn’t the #1. And so on. I think we should be targeting at least one high-tier pitcher (Millwood or Burnett, or similar) and a middle-tier pitcher in the offseason (Loaiza or similar)- and also spending the “foreign player budget that doesn’t count against anything else” to get Matsuzaka… but that’s me.
Interesting numbers, for sure. I’m curious what numbers you’re using for Felix to make these projections. Minor league numbers? Major league numbers? Both? Are you adjusting for the teams he’s faced in the bigs this year?
I agree that he’s been a dominating pitcher. I saw him pitch in person quite a few times 2 years ago in Everett and was blown away. But you have to admit that the Mariners have started him out with an easy slate of games.
1st game–@Detroit: pitcher’s park against against a mid-range AL offense.
2nd game–Home, against Minnesota: another pitcher’s park, against one of the 3 lowest-scoring AL teams. In addition, the Twins have put up a pitiful .674 OPS and 4.0 runs/game since the All-Star Break.
3rd game–Home (pitcher’s park), against Kansas City: against the lowest-scoring team in the AL, a team with a .687 team OPS since the All-Star Break and averaging 3.9 runs/game in that time.
4th game–@Minnesota: see above
Three of his 4 starts have been against very bad offenses, offenses that have struggled even moreso since the All-Star break.
1. Nice… I think you could put money on those numbers. Or maybe the mean of those numbers.
Personally, I’ld hold off from giving him a Cy Young just yet. I mean, we have all had a good look at what happens when you expect too much from any rookie.
2. #8 is right. The next 4 will be greatly different teams then the first four team.
Tigers, Twins (2), and the Royals
vs.
Yankees, A’s, and White Socks
3. “He’s dominate but he is still as green as Spring, grass!”
Example story: I was in the 11 row behind HP for the Royals game. At one point, my mother (she played catcher through college) turned to me and said, “He’s amazing! But watch how he backs off from those that stand up to him.” When he threw inside to back the batter up. If the batter stepped back; Felix had the guy. If the batter stood his ground, like sweeney, Felix had a tougher time.
4. Again. Thank you for your work. I can’t wait to see it again after the next 4 outings!
Excellent post, Dave.
My feelings about Felix are as such; there’s a desperate need to improve the staff, but the desperation for a “true number one” (as silly an idea, in my mind, as the “proven closer,”) shouldn’t be a huge concern. You shouldn’t put the weight of the world on Felix, but to expect great things of him is neither unfair nor harmful. Kid’s got game. If the M’s can improve their rotation with a couple of the mid level FA pitchers or, Lord willing, a Burnett, and let Felix grow into his #1 role naturally, all the better. With a team as “risk averse” as the M’s (risk averse meaning, apparently, signing guys who hit .056,) the placing of hopes in a 19 year old is almost refreshing.
Last time the M’s won a game when Felix didn’t pitch or the M’s didn’t play Kansas City:
August 9 against Minnesota
Hopefully Felix will be the #1 guy, sure would be easier to improve the rotation this winter if that’s the case.
I’m not really a big fan of the “true number one pitcher” concept anyway. But if such a thing as a true number one exists, I don’t think you hold off from getting one just because you have another one. If it’s possible, I have no problem with the M’s acquiring a Schilling to pair with their Johnson (Felix), or an Oswalt to go with their Clemens.
Of course, I agree that their aren’t any pitchers of that ilk available in free agency anyway, and acquiring one via trade is unlikely. But I do think we need to find one and probably two other quality starters for next year’s rotation.
Given the amount of quality, cheap youngsters we should have on the team going forward (Betencourt, Lopez, Hernandez, Reed, Torrealba), I’d think we should be able to spend some money on pitching. Whether that means overpaying for Burnett, luring Millwood, winning the Matsuzaka lottery, or dealing for a Schmidt or Pavano I don’t know, but if we don’t add at least one serious arm to next year’s rotation I’ll be extremely disappointed.
But back to the main topic of the post – great stuff on Felix, and I see no reason to believe your system is anything but conservative in it’s projections. If Felix gets the innings (and of course, stays healthy), he’ll be great, and could be absolutely dominant. Also, I’d like to second the motion to see how your system projects the rest of our rotation, as well as the top available FA pitchers. Of course, I’m sure that’s already in the works.
Finally, thank you Dave. This site continues to be an amazing, cost-free resource. Never doubt that you guys are appreciated.
Hopefully you’re right, but…
4 starts… Shouldn’t one wait until he has a bit more experience before penciling him in as a #1 starter and comparing him to Roger Clemens? Just trying to be realistic – a lot can happen/change in a baseball season.
Hopefully you’re right, but…
4 starts… Shouldn’t one wait until he has a bit more experience before penciling him in as a #1 starter and comparing him to Roger Clemens? Just trying to be realistic – a lot can happen/change in a baseball season.
With Felix’s incredible groundball inducing ability, his high strikeout rates, and his good (although admittedly surprisingly so) control, Felix actually has a skillset far more unique and likely much better than Clemens has ever had in terms of deterring SLG% and, thusly, Runs. I’m not saying Felix doesn’t have a high chance of getting hurt or that he will always have the current skillset. But what I am saying is that Felix’s current skillset is such that he can deter SLG/Runs at such a high rate to where he literally has no current peer in the game.
Assuming Moyer wants to come back, we still need to find three other starting pitchers. Madritsch is a big question mark. So is Meche, and Harris. After that, you have to hope for a turn around from Franklin or Piniero. And there’s always the issue of whether Felix’s shoulder acts up again. I can’t believe we have sunk to this point.
Thanks Dave for the analysis. I really want to see Felix pitches against ‘better-hitting’ team. The first 4 starts were too easy for him. Let’s see how he does again after going against Rangers, Yankees, A’s, and Orioles. He may struggle in 1 to 2 games with those teams (and frankly – I want to see him struggle once to see how good he can bounce back from it).
I still say we need to acquire a stud pitcher. When you look at our rotation now, it’s a huge drop-off after Felix.
With Boone’s money off the books, that money can be reloacted to pitching without hesistation.
Thanks for putting some fur on the Beast, here, Dave-o-tronic. It only confirms the evidence of the eyes: Felix is, already, one of the ten best starting pitchers in baseball. His potential upside is historically dominating. Clemens coming up had better control—he was uniquiely good there—but Felix’s offspead stuff is superior to anything Roger could command, as is El Carteluo’s groundball rate. Right now.
Given his age, and the physical and performance varigations peculiar to the profession of ‘pitcher,’ I try not to get too into Felix’s potential, or what-ifs at this point. One start at a time, and a full season in the books before I really allow myself to dream. He’ll have his off days, like everyone else, though few of them I think. But for all that, I can’t block out from my mind the fact that if there was ever a pitching package in the lively ball era who could turn in an historically best season, it is this man. Not this fall, but just perhaps in a very few years. Pedro a half dozen years ago was simply unbelievable. Felix has a better physical package, and maybe better movement on his stuff. At 19. . . . Mr. Lucky is just awesome. Don’t, just don’t, miss any of his starts if pitching is what you like.
Is there any chance you could post the projections for the rest of the Mariners starters?
I’ll run the whole staff through the system at the end of the year. For now, here’s Ryan Franklin.
145 2/3 IP, 161 H, 25 HR, 52 BB, 58 K, 5.63 Fielding Independant ERA
It think he’s sucks too.
I agree that Felix can and should be the M’s #1 starter this year and beyond. But the nice thing about the King is that he’s making a minimal salary for the next few years. So why not go out and get another #1-type, veteran arm with the money saved?
Interesting numbers, for sure. I’m curious what numbers you’re using for Felix to make these projections. Minor league numbers? Major league numbers? Both? Are you adjusting for the teams he’s faced in the bigs this year?
I’m using his entire professional career, both minor and major leagues.
And, if you’ll go back and read the previous Felix post that I linked to, you’ll see that, even after adjusting for the teams he’s faced in the bigs, Felix has been dominant on a ridiculous level.
Great writeup.
So let’s add Burnett to the rotation. If Felix has the “safe” season, then we will have 2 AJ Burnetts. I’ll take it.
Felix made the cover of USA Today. Run out and swipe a copy from the nearest business hotel!
I appreciate the pursuit of statistical integrity, but let’s take a step back here, just for a moment. Your sample includes a number of pretty good starts for felix (no doubt in anyone’s mind), but against teams like Detroit, Kansas City, and Minnesots (twice). This is hardly a heavy hitting group. Felix will not continue his 1.24 ERA forever. Not that its statistically impossible, but he’d have to be better than every pitcher in the history of the game, ever. He has yet to play in any loud stadium, against any good hitting team, under any pressure. He hasn’t even been up to the bigs long enough for the league to get to know him sufficently, espn coverage or not. He will struggle at some point, just like every other pitcher in the bigs from Tim Hudson to Bob Gibson. The kid is 19, and we’ve already declared him the savior, the #1 pitcher of next year, the second coming of roger clemens… etc. Talk about pressure.
I understand that felix’s emergence is absolutely something to get fired up about. Other than following the young players and seing Willie finally get his chance (alright DOW baseball!), there’s not a lot to get excited about this year, and he’s shown more potential than any other pitcher in a seattle uniform since big 51 threw pure flame in the kingdome. Saying that his follow up would be dissapointing if he could emulate Carlos Zambrano reminds me of listening to old SEC football grandparents talk about their superior “next big thing”. He’s pitched 29 innings in a game where past performance never ever guarantees future success (see: Dave Fleming, Chuck Knoblauch, Dwight Gooden (god forbid), our vaunted minor league arms, etc).
I hope Felix becomes the next Walter Johnson just as much as everyone else; I’ve been a die hard Mariners fan since I met Dave Valle and Bill Swift at a Boys and Girls Club ages ago and these losing seasons suck. But give the kid a chance. Lets all enjoy watching him progress and become a great pitcher instead of building up expectations so high that no one can ever achieve them.
Your sample includes a number of pretty good starts for felix (no doubt in anyone’s mind), but against teams like Detroit, Kansas City, and Minnesots (twice). This is hardly a heavy hitting group.
We’ve addressed this many times. Felix’s average major league opponent has the same batting line as Roger Clemens’ opponents do.
And, just in case you missed it, this projection is not simply based on his four major league starts. It includes his entire professional career. I’m not taking his first four starts, extrapolating them out to 35 starts, and calling that a projection.
Felix will not continue his 1.24 ERA forever. Not that its statistically impossible, but he’d have to be better than every pitcher in the history of the game, ever.
Obviously. Notice that the median projection gives him a fielding independant ERA right around 3.00?
Saying that his follow up would be dissapointing if he could emulate Carlos Zambrano reminds me of listening to old SEC football grandparents talk about their superior “next big thingâ€Â. He’s pitched 29 innings in a game where past performance never ever guarantees future success (see: Dave Fleming, Chuck Knoblauch, Dwight Gooden (god forbid), our vaunted minor league arms, etc).
Find me a pitcher with Felix’s skillset that has struggled in the major leagues. And, Felix’s professional career spans 335 innings. That’s what went into this projection (obviously, I translated the minor league numbers to adjust for talent).
Lets all enjoy watching him progress and become a great pitcher instead of building up expectations so high that no one can ever achieve them.
That’s the point I’m trying to drive home; with no progression, Felix is a great pitcher right now. Felix doesn’t have to improve one bit to be an elite major league starting pitcher. He already is.
Dave, thanks for the information. Without knowing more about your system, it’s hard to put it into much context, but it is interesting.
Would it be possible to give us your system’s projection of Zach Duke? He’s certainly off to a great start right now and I’d be interested to see if his projections are as rosy.
Fantastic post, Dave, thanks. Excepting a few heavily cautious types (forgiveable, when seen in the context of ages-long disappointment for M’s fans) nobody is doubting the possibilities for his highness next year and beyond. But one arm, no matter how blessed, doth not a rotation make. I agree with previous posts that state the FA market is weak for starting pitching. So what swell trades should Bavasi et al be pursuing? And do we really have a shot at any of them? Also, where do you see Madritsch fitting in next year (presuming he’s healthy)?
Would it be possible to give us your system’s projection of Zach Duke? He’s certainly off to a great start right now and I’d be interested to see if his projections are as rosy.
It’s a pain in the butt to do the minor league translations. Given the time restraints I’m facing, probably not. But, just eyeballing it, I’m pretty sure the system wouldn’t be a huge fan of Duke’s. He’s certainly been pitching over his head.
Why less home runs for the pesimist season???
Why less home runs for the pesimist season???
Less batters faced and even less of those actually getting to swing the stick. Notice how the innings are much lower but the walks are much higher? The pessimistic projection for Felix is basically what we’ll see if his command goes south and he turns into a guy who can’t find the plate with consistency. Since he won’t be facing as many hitters (due to relative ineffectiveness) and those hitters will be trotting to first base more often, you’ll get less guys swinging the bat, and in turn, less of them hitting the ball over the wall.
One question, though: what’s the difference between component ERA and fielding independant ERA?
Component ERA, well, I probably should have named it something else, since it’s not the same thing as Bill James formula by the same name, but I’m pretty sure they’d come up with similar results. In this case, it’s an ERA extrapolated from his OBP/SLG allowed. Basically, a formula to turn the amount of baserunners he gives up into runs. It assumes that the ability to pitch out of jams is essentially not a skill.
Fielding Independant ERA is TangoTiger’s creation, a quick-and-dirty formula for evaluating a pitcher after removing the effects of his average on balls in play. Basically, it’s an application of the DIPS theory in ERA form.
I meant to post this question in response to the smmary of Felix’s first four starts, but I’ll do it here…
Who else in the majors has put together 4 consecutive starts like this in 2005?
I have no idea how to put that together. If anyone else can do so, I’d be stoked to see what you come up with. Thanks.
FYI, here is what Roger Clemens did in his first 4 starts of the season.
28 IP
16 H
1 R
6 BB
32 SO
One question: When you put down a 2005 comp, does it factor in differences in league? In other words, if Burnett pitched in the AL in 2005, he wouln’t have the line that he does this year, because the AL is a better hitting league. So is Felix in 2006 (neutral version) like Burnett would be in the AL, or is he better than that? (Also pertains to whether or not the M’s should pursue Burnett in the offseason, but that’s another topic.)
There was this thread last week, where rlc found guys with similar game score performances this year. Chris Carpenter had a run in mid-June to July that was just otherworldly.
So, what Felix is doing isn’t historically rare, but it’s pretty clear that mediocre pitchers don’t do it. The list of guys who have put together runs like this in ’05 is a whos-who of mlb pitchers.
So… you saying I should hang on to him in my keeper league?
I don’t understand the pessimism about the King. Based on his number and Dave’s projections, the only thing between him and a #1 starter type year in 2006 is Mariners Pitcher Syndrome. Hargrove’s “I have an inning cap but not a pitch cap” crap makes me worried, but I’m thinking that only that could keep him from being at least Carlos Zambrano. And I wouldn’t mind having Carlos Zambrano right now.
Dave… Felix’s worst starts in AAA, IIRC, were all at altitude (in SLC or the Springs). Did the run and G/F numbers get dumped straight in for those starts, or did you lower them a percentage point or two since he probably won’t be pitching at altitude at all this year? Or do the Wests play each other again in interleague in 2006?
Thanks Dave, I’ll look forward to the end of the season projections.
Dave… Felix’s worst starts in AAA, IIRC, were all at altitude (in SLC or the Springs). Did the run and G/F numbers get dumped straight in for those starts, or did you lower them a percentage point or two since he probably won’t be pitching at altitude at all this year? Or do the Wests play each other again in interleague in 2006?
The numbers got dumped straight in before being translated to adjust for level of competition.
One question: When you put down a 2005 comp, does it factor in differences in league?
No, it doesn’t. I wasn’t looking for an exact across-the-board comparison, as much as I was looking for a general performance and skillset match.
I wrote a column for the PI this week on Felix’s RoY chances this year, which aren’t as bad as they might seem. Would have made a nice footnote to this post, but it hasn’t gone up yet, though.
This is all very heartening, but I feel that if you’re going to repeat “independent” that many times in one post that you should spell it correctly.
*beam*
Since the pickings are rather slim for FA starting pitching, and the bidding is probably going to be crazy, wouldn’t the M’s do better to look for a team that would want to dump some salary and make a trade to acquire a starting pitcher or two?
Next year we will have a 20 year old ACE who makes the minimum so we can afford to go out and pick up a Redman, and a Millwood to round out the rotation.
Frankly I don’t see a for sure thing ACE coming up among the pitchers available in free agency this year.
#14 — 4 games is not a “skillset”.
How can he be a “#1 starter” if you decide in advance that he’s not going to pitch more than 200 innings?
If you think they have the slightest chance of contending (I know, not likely, but they have to try), they have to have him rested and in position to pitch every 4 or 5 days in the playoffs. Which means he has to pitch less early in the year.
Maybe starting him off in the bullpen isn’t a bad idea.
There was this thread last week, where rlc found guys with similar game score performances this year.
Except that he stopped looking after the top 10 in ERA. There were plenty more instances further down the list, and other people mentioned cases like Paul Wilson and Jae Seo.
I like Tangotiger’s summary better, which is that mediocre pitchers can have stretches that superficially resemble Felix’s debut run, but they do it much less often (no surprise). The relative likelihood of this performance, and Felix’s age, still immensely favor seeing him as an ace who’s peaking, not a journeyman who’s fluking.
Except that he stopped looking after the top 10 in ERA. There were plenty more instances further down the list, and other people mentioned cases like Paul Wilson and Jae Seo.
Those people were wrong. If you look at the starts that they referenced, they weren’t even close to what Felix has posted.
Since the pickings are rather slim for FA starting pitching, and the bidding is probably going to be crazy, wouldn’t the M’s do better to look for a team that would want to dump some salary and make a trade to acquire a starting pitcher or two?
Possibly…but the thing is the M’s have SOME surplus to offer, but not oodles of it (remember, this is a team still trying to rebuild with young talent). I suppose a package of, say, Morse/Bazardo/Choo/Tuiasosopo (for demonstration purposes only) could get you something on a salary dump- but is what comes back really going to be better than what you can get on the FA market?
Why even argue about who a #1 pitcher is? If we can go out and get a “#1″ pitcher to complement Felix, then so much the better. Do you think anyone in Houston cares that Oswalt is only a “#2″? Let’s have two #1′s, and call one of them a #2. Of course there really aren’t any elite pitchers on the FA market. but we can dream..
Those people were wrong. If you look at the starts that they referenced, they weren’t even close to what Felix has posted.
Depends how close of a match you’re insisting on. Narrowing down the criteria too far leaves you with no matches (surprise, surprise, Felix is pretty unique).
I think Wilson’s run at the end of last year is close enough to warrant mentioning. Noah Lowry’s run over the past month is an even better comparison.
“With Boone’s money off the books, that money can be reloacted to pitching without hesistation.”
A lot of it goes to Sexson’s increase.
43. I hope Felix isn’t peaking yet.
I think Wilson’s run at the end of last year is close enough to warrant mentioning. Noah Lowry’s run over the past month is an even better comparison.
Paul Wilson’s last three starts of ’04:
7 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, 54 Game Score
8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 6 K, 74 Game Score
7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 4 K, 63 Game Score
Total: 22 IP, 17 H, 4 R, 1 HR, 4 BB, 13 K, 63.6 Avg Game Score
You think that compares with Felix’s last three starts?
8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 6 K, 78 Game Score
8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 11 K, 82 Game Score
8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 9 K, 72 Game Score
Total: 24 IP, 13 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 26 K, 77.3 Avg Game Score
Really? Those look the same to you?
Dave, you’ve got the wrong last three starts. You’ve got his last three September starts and you’re omitting an Oct. 1 start against Pittsburgh (seems to have been largely the Pirates’ regulars, not AAA callups).
Paul Wilson, Oct. 1, 2004:
9 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 7 K, 80 Game Score
Most teams that win the world series, and indeed most teams that get anywhere in the post-season, have two guys who could be called #1 starters — particularly if compared to the rotation on teams that didn’t make the post-season. I’m just sayin’…
43. I hope Felix isn’t peaking yet.
I meant peaking in terms of performance, not in terms of ability. What Felix has done can’t be sustained over the course of a season, as Dave’s projections indicate. But Felix can certainly continue to develop and improve as a pitcher, and I hope he does.
I think the Mariners should switch places with the Padres in the NL West just so we can see the type of career numbers Felix could put up in the National League. Actually, make it the Rockies so he doesn’t have to pitch there.
All of these numbers are mind boggling considering this is gonna be a 20 year old kid who would be a junior in college.What happens if his girlfriend breaks up with him are he cant get into the club because he is only 20?He is 20 lets be realistic and not put him on such a high petistool that no matter what he does it wont be enough!!!I love to dream also and i know watching the mariners this year has been very ugly but common guys.
If he pitches for the Rockies, he’d have to pitch there half the time.
Speaking of San Diego (where our dead batters continue their lives), Miguel Olivo isn’t doing so terribly there. It seems to me that there is an odd Safeco/Seattle effect on hitters that renders some hitters virtually worthless. I mean, no one could have expected the ridiculously bad results from: Spiezio, Cirillo, Aurilia, Olivo.
Certainly, none of these guys would’ve been great, but come on!
Assigning a number sequence to the starting rotation is plain silly. To say one is after a number 1 or 2 pitcher is silly. Seeking pitchers who are best at keeping baserunners to a minimun should be the goal.
I’d say any team that is simply seeking an “innings eaters” is one whose perspective is not geared toward winning but rather just completing the 162 game season. I know we can’t find 4 more Kings but we can look for the type of pitcher who either projects to have success or already has success.
50-
It STILL doesn’t look the same to me. Hint: look at the K column for Wilson and Hernandez over those starts, and recall that Wilson is pitching in the NL (read: gets 2-3 AB’s against pitchers who are far more likely to K).
If Felix makes a start every five days for the rest of the season, do the Mariners lose a year of service on him as far as contracts go?
“If he pitches for the Rockies, he’d have to pitch there half the time.”
Under his proposal, Felix wouldn’t play for them, theyw ould become an AL team and the Mariners would become an NL team.
EC – Of course it’s not the same, but the original discussion focused on game scores, and Wilson’s fit the criteria being used there. Similarity metrics only go so far, because everyone’s unique, and somebody like Felix is especially unique.
If Felix makes a start every five days for the rest of the season, do the Mariners lose a year of service on him as far as contracts go?
1. No.
2. How would his service time be affected by how the Mariners use him? Service time is days on the major league roster. Which would be the same regardless of whether he is in the rotation or how often he pitches.
I have a different opinion about filling out a rotation around Felix. And one that would require Mariner fans to have a little faith in the ownership and front office of this team.
One, I’m not qualified to judge the free agent talent this year, but if all the “slim pickin’s” posts have any truth to them, then perhaps this is not the year to sink a bunch of money into top free agent starters.
Two, I’m not sure the Mariners can bounce from this back to back 90-some loss seasons to competition for the wildcard next year.
Three, next year will be a big maturing year for Felix. I like to keep my expectations down. Pencil me in Dave’s bad case scenario for Felix production. If we leap too fast into the free agent market we might be jumping the gun on Felix’s true #1-ish season. The thing that concerns me about next year is that after all the scouts from all teams have a look at him, a book will develop on how to hit Felix. And then he’ll likely struggle as hitters put a little more uppercut on their swings, or simply lay off the low stuff. I see 2007 as more likely to be his big year. And if his health holds out, then we’ll see his innings stretched by management in 2007.
Four, I’m a big fan of the current Cleveland model for rebuilding a team. Yes, call me a bandwagoner, but hey, it’s working. And specifically I’m refering to Westbrook, Elarton and Lee cutting their teeth last year, and this year improving within that rotation. And lo and behold, the front office had the wisdom to sign a solid veteran like Millwood to complement the youngsters. So, IMO, the M’s should take stock of what they have in their own mound youngsters in 2006. I believe Madritsch, Soriano, Bazardo, Foppert, and Nageotte should all get turns in the rotation, and perhaps even Livingston. Whichever two look the best, team them with Felix and a Millwood-esque signing in 2007 and go hard for the wildcard.
Five, this will take some faith by the Mariner faithful. The Front Office has to make it clear to the fans that they have a good plan. That the money not spent in 2006 will be put to good use in future years.
One other point on Cleveland…
Last year they used 30 pitchers total, and gave 22 of them over 10 innings. This year only 17 pitchers total, and only 14 have over 10 innings. To me, that progression speaks of a plan to develop pitchers and a succesful execution of that plan.
Cleveland also had talented pitchers in their system to give chances to. It’s a pretty big difference.
We really can’t say for sure how good the talent is in our farm system, including newly acquired pitchers. Remember, Elarton was a newly acquired guy for Cleveland last year and Lee was acquired only a year before that.
We gave the bulk of the available innings in 2005 to Pineiro, Meche, Moyer and Franklin. The other guys I mentioned have not had their chance, yet. And they all have some markers in their minor league career to indicate that they could possibly break through. We only need 2 to follow the Cleveland model.
We don’t have any arms in the minor leagues anywhere near the level of Cliff Lee.
I’m all for the Cleveland model. Of course, their model started with rebuilding an elite farm system by trading away their major league talent. The M’s aren’t going to be doing that.
What is the word on Travis Blackly’s health? Will he be able to pitch next year, could he have an impact for the M’s? Also, can either Madsritch or Sioriano make any sort of impact with the M’s next year? Two of these guys were part of the crown jewels in the M’s farm system (along with Nageotte and Hernandez0, with the other being a revelation.
Or are they 2007 players?
But we start off with a young #1 better than Cleveland.
Felix > Sabathia.
Rusty,
I agree with your concern about free agent pitchers. If we have to overpay to bring a pitcher here, let’s at least over-pay an effective one. However, someone has to pitch next year, and the guys you mention are either coming off injury, are slated more as bullpen guys, or both.
Looking back at Kevin Goldstein’s top 100…
02. Kazmir
03. Foppert
18. Bonderman
21. Soriano
22. Harden
28. Nageotte
29. Jerome Williams
45. Cliff Lee
46. Dontrelle Willis
56. Ervin Santana
81. Zach Greinke
When I say “marker”, I’m saying that there was at least something in their minor league careers that caused somebody somewhere to think highly of them.
andy said:”Speaking of San Diego (where our dead batters continue their lives), Miguel Olivo isn’t doing so terribly there. It seems to me that there is an odd Safeco/Seattle effect on hitters that renders some hitters virtually worthless. I mean, no one could have expected the ridiculously bad results from: Spiezio, Cirillo, Aurilia, Olivo.”
Is it Safeco/Seattle or is it AL/NL? Notice that Aurilia is also doing ok in his return to the NL, as was Cirillo before his injury…
Goldstein’s list is from 2003.
Nageotte was simply overrated, and Foppert had Tommy John surgery. That’s a pretty big change in their status.
It’s rather difficult to over-rate someone who has back to back 141 and 153 SO’s in about as many innings while maintaining a 2.5 SO:BB ratio. Dave you are wrong on this one except in hindsight.
I’m all for the Cleveland model. Of course, their model started with rebuilding an elite farm system by trading away their major league talent. The M’s aren’t going to be doing that.
Of course, the Mariner model of “hey, let’s plug the holes with free agents and maybe our minor league system produces something useful” is, in aggregate, not much more successful than Cleveland’s in terms of wins and losses since 2002:
CLE: 292
SEA: 302
This gap is likely going to diminish the rest of the year to nearly nothing. Not to mention Oakland’s model, and so on. Plus, it’s a hell of a lot more expensive. I guess “Hey! We’re spending money!” helps bring the fans to the ballpark- but it means you’re spending the money on salaries for ineffective players.
The other problem I see is the Mariner model ALSO tends to overvalue players of limited utility (Dobbs, Bloomquist, Thornton, Franklin), which screws up their ability to maximize the talent out of their minors/”free” talent.
The good news is that the problems (no lefty power outside of Ibanez, who’s not really anything more than a decent DH, nobody who can reasonably be considered a patient hitter capable of a lot of BB, total wreck of a starting pitching staff outside of Hernandez and maybe Moyer) are pretty clear, and there are certainly means to fix them in terms of expiring contracts if they want to go the free agent route. The trick is making the right choices.
It’s rather difficult to over-rate someone who has back to back 141 and 153 SO’s in about as many innings while maintaining a 2.5 SO:BB ratio. Dave you are wrong on this one except in hindsight.
No its not. Ever heard of Craig Anderson? Major League Baseball put him in the Futures Game based on a sparkling K/9 and BB/K ratio. Nageotte never even showed any kind of desire to learn a third pitch, and his mechanics were always a concern. That he ended up in the bullpen and battling injuries and reduced velocity is no surprise at all.
My point is that Nageotte lands decently in those rankings no matter what other factors existed at the time. It’s only in hindsight that you can criticize the ranking.
So Kevin Goldstein is now the infallible Bible of prospect analysis?
Whatever. I questioned the ranking at the time. I question it now. You don’t agree with me, that’s your deal. But if you’re going to claim that Clint Nageotte is our version of Cliff Lee, well, good luck to you.
As the guy who strongly fought for BP’s rating of Nageotte, I’d like to say that I was wrong, and overrated him because I didn’t understand the changeup issue in particular.
http://ussmariner.com/index.php?s=Nageotte&submit=Search&paged=5
(Halfway down, post by Dave)
Is there any real reason Clint Nageotte is still in the majors? He was pretty obviously not ready when they called him up, and he hasn’t done anything to show that he deserves to stay. He’s burning service time and development opportunities. Send him back to Tacoma and let him continue to work on his command and a third pitch. Having him in Seattle isn’t doing anyone any good.
Rany Jazyerli ranked Nageotte 35th in 2003.
Baseball America had him as 76th in 2003.
Sporting News had him as an Honorable Mention.
Dave, you’ll probably take this as evidence that he was overrated but you would be missing my point. I’m not saying that Goldstein’s ranking of 28th is the exact point at which Nageotte should have been ranked. The bottom line is that he made a lot of Top 100 lists at one point in time. That’s what I mean by a “marker”.
And Dave, why do you insist in distorting my remarks? When did I ever equate Nageotte with Lee?
Oh, and this:
http://ussmariner.com/index.php?s=Nageotte&submit=Search&paged=6
Seriously, Nageotte comes in because Meche can’t throw strikes? Did the M’s just not pay attention to the fact that Nageotte can’t either? He had 25 walks, 2 HBP’s, and 6 wild pitches in 48 innings for Tacoma. There really isn’t any reason for Clint to be in the majors right now, and if they are thinking of putting him in the rotation full time, well, they’re fooling themselves.
Rany Jazyerli ranked Nageotte 35th in 2003.
Well, it’s Rany’s list, sort of, but you can go read the discussions and see me stumping for Nageotte which — and I’m agreeing with Dave here — was a total mistake on my part.
This conversation has basically gone like this:
Rusty: The M’s should give all their good young arms a chance next year. It worked for Cleveland with guys like Cliff Lee.
Dave: The M’s don’t have any guys like Cliff Lee.
Rusty: Sure they do. In 2003, Foppert and Nageotte both ranked highly on prospect lists, just like Lee.
Dave: Foppert had TJ surgery and Nageotte was overrated.
Rusty: No he wasn’t!
Dave: Okay, fine. Think what you want.
Rusty: When did I ever say Nageotte was as good as Lee? Don’t distort my opinions.
Dave: I quit.
Dave,
I specifically acknowledged that we don’t need a Lee because our current young #1, Felix is greater than Cleveland’s #1, Sabathia.
So I’m not sure why you’re distorting my remarks. I’m looking for two decent guys amongst our young arms.
I’m always butting heads with you on issues, and I feel I make reasonable remarks. So I don’t know why you want to insist on putting words in my mouth.
Yes, by all means, let’s make this more personal.
I specifically acknowledged that we don’t need a Lee because our current young #1, Felix is greater than Cleveland’s #1, Sabathia.
Right, but Dave’s point is that in aggregate, the pile o’ pitching talent in Seattle is less than the one in Cleveland, INCLUDING Felix. Basically, it’s the old “you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken $#!+” argument. So if we don’t end up with 2 decent rotation arms + Felix out of the pile, what happens then?
Right, but Dave’s point is that in aggregate, the pilo o’ pitching talent in Seattle..
Exactly, Dave has made some valid points and so have I. But if all my points are going to be re-worded by Dave I don’t see how that is contributing to the thread.
Rusty, I understand what you’re saying. I think that Dave is pointing out that with the pitching we have in the minors, it just isn’t feasible.
Back to the idea of filling in the rotation around Felix. As it appears that the free agent market is thin, I’ve seen it mentioned here several times that trades may be the way to go. Does Morse have any trade value? Can we convince some teams that his hot streak was not a fluke? Who else is expendable, that may have some value to other teams?
Leone?
Strong?
Mateo?
Thornton?
Putz?
Who else could we trade? Some of our better prospects like Jones/Tui/Lopez?
Does that make any sense?
Thanks for the interesting projections. do you think you might be a little bit optimistic on Felix’s BB rate? It was pretty mediocre in AAA and we only have four starts of good control in the majors to put against it.
Dave, what happens if Hernandez struggles against the Yankees, or sometime before the season ends? Are you going to change his projection because you have a different set of numbers to work with? Just wondering and curious.
And one thing, has Felix’s G/F rate ever been close to 3.0? I don’t know how you can project him to have such a phenomenal ratio if he’s never done it in the minors, except projecting for his young age.
The hangup with a trade is that IIRC teams just don’t trade solid SP. I was trying to think of solid SP that has gotten traded in the last few years and I couldn’t come up with any normal cases. Garcia and Johnson are the only ones I could think of and both were cases were the pitcher wanted out and the team was going to lose him. Can anyone come up with other solid SP traded in the last few years?
The pitchers are there in FA to get, the issue is what they’re going to cost. As far as a basic measurement, my projections for the 06 Ms is in direct proportion to have many slots in the rotation are filled by new acquistions costing more 5 mil/year.
0: Hello 90 losses
1: Hello .500
2: Hello 90 wins
Chris Capuano (2003), Brad Penny (2004), Carlos Silva (2003), Livan Hernandez (2003) are some pitchers that were traded within the past three years.
Don’t forget Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, and Dan Haren of Oakland’s last off-season. Javier Vasquez is another that I can think of. Also Scott Kazmir and Mark Redman. Trading for pitching is probably a better idea than the FA market this offseason.
Capuano had all of 33IP when he was traded.
Brad Penny is a good example.
Carlos Silva had 1 career start when he was traded.
Livan Hernandez had ERA+ of 77 and 87 the two seasons before being traded (Gil Meche’s ERA+ was 86 in 2004 for reference)
The Oakland As deal are exactly what I outlined in “Teams couldn’t hang onto the player” part of my post.
Kazmir was a prospect and Vazquez was used to get Johnson, which doens’t count.
I said teams don’t trade solid SP and so far, other than say Brad Penny, I still don’t see much evidence of that. They may trade people who TURN into solid SP. The best you can hope for in the trade market is:
1) Find a team that’s about to lose a good SP.
2) Trade for a prospect.
Who fits the bill under 1? Barry Zito maybe.
We all know the success rate of pitching prospects so 2 is a crapshoot.
FA is the way to go.
Why is it that the Oakland pitchers don’t count again? The M’s are a big budget club, they should be looking to get players like that off of small budget teams whenever they can.
For that matter, why doesn’t Silva count? Just because the Phillies didn’t realize they had a starter on their hands doesn’t mean they didn’t trade away starting pitching. They got a rather expensive, mediocre season out of the “proven” Milton, and now the Twins are getting cheaper, better quality seasons out of Silva. Guys like that are out there, you just have to look for them and trust your scouts evalutations.
The M’s should get pitching wherever they can find it, they shouldn’t limit themselves to just free agents or trades. Looking at the top pitchers in the league, though, I don’t see many, if any, pitchers that are going into free agency. So I guess I’ll sort of back off my claim that trades are the way to go, but the free agent market isn’t a sure thing, either.
Like I said, the As traded them because they couldn’t hang onto them being a small market team. In other words, they were traded because they had to be traded, like Garcia and Johnson or the team risked getting nothing save draft picks (like the Marlins will get with Burnett).
I then listed that as “1)find a team that’s about to lose a good SP” and who qualifies under that in 05/06? Every large market team is looking to get players like that, but I don’t see any except for maybe Barry Zito. (Again, which I mentioned)
Silva doesn’t count for the same reason Capuano, et al do not count. They were not solid SP at the time of the trade. They were unproven.
Read again what I said in 96. There are two ways (95%) to get SP in trades. I covered what you brought up. #1 yields a crop thinner than the FA market, #2 is riskier than FA.
I’m not saying it’s impossible or that I don’t want them to do it. Like I said in 93, I think the quality of team is directly linked to how many solid additions to the rotation they get. I don’t care if it’s through FA or trade, (although I prefer FA since then we’d have a chance to keep solid guys for the bench) just that
A)I think that the FA pitchers are better than what we could reasonably get on the trade market
B)Trading for SP is a lot harder than people in the thread were making it seem.
Dave, 2 questions
Why did you use two NL pitchers as 2005 performance comparisons for Felix Hernandez?? Does your calculations automatically adjust for differences in AL and NL ?
Thanks.
I like the idea of trading for a solid or (prospective) starting pitcher.
I don’t see that we have anything people are salivating to get. Mateo and Putz have value, but its limited by the lower-impact roles they seem best suited for.
Strong, Leone, Dobbs, WFB, et al are the kinds of talents people sign off the waiver wire, not the kind they trade for.
The only hope I see is the miracle Madritsch recovery and Soriano stretches out to be a starter scenario.
If we add two stud starting pitchers by the FA market, we’ll only be an offense away from being competitive. (Without Snelling, I don’t see how our minor leagues help in the coming years, other than providing banjo-hitting MIs. Maybe we should just shut the doors and go to an all FA model?)
(Without Snelling, I don’t see how our minor leagues help in the coming years, other than providing banjo-hitting MIs. Maybe we should just shut the doors and go to an all FA model?)
I don’t think Jones, Lopez and Tui will be banjo hitters. What they will be is right-handed. Clement’s about it for LHB who might thump in the majors, and our lineup has Ibañez as the only LHB middle of the order hitter…and most people don’t consider .285/22/90 a solid middle of the order hitter.
It is a thin FA market for pitchers — when the best there is out there are guys like Matt Morris, AJ Burnett, Jeff Weaver, Kevin Millwood, and Jarrod Washburn, you really aren’t looking at potential #1′s (with the possible exception of Burnett) so much as #2-3′s or worse. One other guy I think should be mentioned is Jason Schmidt. The Giants have an option on him ($10.5M next year, with a buyout of $3.5M), but have been reported to be considering declining that, and/or open to a trade. Schmidt is from Vancouver, WA and nearly signed with the M’s last time around, and would probably be open to an extension if the M’s wanted to lock him up beyond 2006. Reportedly, the Giants wanted two MLB-ready starters and a pitching prospect for Schmidt at the deadline — pretty steep. I think they would come down from that, but if they would consider a trade of Meche or Piniero plus Franklin, and maybe somebody like Nageotte, I would favor that for Schmidt. It’s probably not enough, unless they are seriously thinking of declining his option….
Schmidt is from Vancouver, WA and nearly signed with the M’s last time around
Think about this “what if” scenario… the M’s almost signed Schmidt but instead lost out on him to the Giants. Then they turned around and used that money to trade for Jeff Cirillo. Do the math on the VORP, WARP, etc., and it’s easy to see why the M’s missed the playoffs in 2002 and 2003.
What level prospects are Jones/Lopez/Tui? B? If all three work out, and Reed develops, and Clements comes faster than catchers tend to, we start to see the potential for a better than league average offense.
Seems a long longshot scenario here in the dog days of the second season of our discontent.
If this team signs Jarrod Washburn to any job other then peanut vendor, it will be the making of 100 loss seasons in 06 and 07