The 2006 Free Agent Pitching Buffet
Remember the school cafeteria’s mystery meat, the mysterious mishmash of flesh that might have once been a cow, a pig, or some combination thereof? That’s your starting rotation next year. It ain’t quite a box of chocolates, but you sure don’t know what you’re gonna get.
Especially with the news about Jorge Campillo, the 2006 Mariners have a rotation filled with question marks dressed as baseball players.
Will Jamie Moyer, Ryan Franklin or Gil Meche be back? Does Joel Pineiro have to be? What about Bobby Madritsch’s shoulder? What about the minor league arms? It seems like the only sure thing (knock wood) is less than half Moyer’s age and has two more major league starts than Mordecai Brown had fingers on his pitching hand.
The key to next season how that rotation fills out. Though it’s unspeakably early, fans are understandably concerned about this, so let’s fire up the conversation with a preview of four available pitchers I’d like to see the Mariners pursue.
In keeping with the “mystery meat” theme, each player is likened to an item of ballpark food.
A.J. Burnett: Skilled and 28 years old, Burnett’s in the prime of his career. He misses bats, striking out batters at a rate higher than any Mariner save the boy king. Burnett did miss significant time with Tommy John surgery, which points to injury risks. But a cynic might say that the medical history just shows he’d feel at home as a Mariner.
In another year, Burnett would be a good, solid B-plus, a talented pitcher with some questions, a notch below the slam-dunk talent available above him. This year he’s the flagship of the free agent class. That may well drive his price beyond reasonable.
Rating: Fat Tire beer. Of undeniable quality, Fat Tire is nonetheless one of the most overpriced items at the ballyard. There might not be a more delicious item available, but at this cost, even the manageable risk that some clown might kick over your brew and not offer to buy another seems disconcerting. A premium that you’ll probably have to pay dearly for.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: I’ve long been a fervent advocate of pursuing the Japanese ace, but recently, my ardor has cooled. Not based on the man’s talent, you understand — it’s just that practically every Japanese manager has two subscriptions to Lou Piniella’s magazine “Throw Some More Pitches, Kid.” Recently, we’re hearing whispers that Matsuzaka’s velocity is down and he’s complaining of shoulder soreness. This visits Doyle-level sadness upon my psyche: it’s like watching a fine work of art deteriorate after being left out in the rain. [For some background, scope Derek's take and Will Carroll's.]
If the rumors are baseless and he’s still the dominating pitcher he’s been, there’s little doubt in my mind that Matsuzaka is at least A.J. Burnett’s equal. But the chain of dominoes that starts with 200+ pitch outings rarely falls in a safe place.
Rating: Ichiroll. Like an Ichiroll, Matsuzaka might be a delicious and underexplored sensation. But fish spoils. Do you really want to bet an afternoon that you won’t be lolling and drooling after getting a hunk of fish that has gone bad from inattention or abuse? In other words, high risk, high reward — emphasis on risk.
Kevin Millwood: Millwood is older than Burnett and a step down. But though Millwood commanded $7 million this year, what he’ll get in the offseason is likely to be a bargain (in terms of dollars and years) than what the mighty Marlin will draw.
A career flyball pitcher (check out those ratios), Millwood also appears to be well-suited for Safeco. Think of Ryan Franklin, with talent and without the drug suspension.
Rating: Garlic fries. A totally solid, always defensible choice. Consistent quality at a price that won’t break the bank (well, for Safeco food). Won’t satisfy you all by itself, but won’t bankrupt you or risk Puchy Delgado’s Revenge either. Upshot: the safe choice.
Esteban Loaiza: Dominating 2003 Esteban isn’t coming back, but effective 2006 Esteban is a real possibility. Acquired on the cheap by the Nationals, Loaiza is hauling in less than $3 million this year — just a touch more than Gil “Five Innings, Four Runs” Meche. And he’s another flyball-heavy hurler, meaning Safeco might well maximize his skills.
Rating: Peanuts from outside the ballpark. Maybe those cheesy exhortations from the vendors are off-putting, but they’re true. You’ll spend less on those than you will on comparable products, and likely be just as satisfied.
Other names out there include Matt Morris, Jeff Weaver, Jarrod Washburn, Paul Byrd and Kenny Rogers. None of these interest me as much as the above four.
Recommendations as of today: Pursue Burnett, wary of overpaying. Pursue Millwood and Loaiza. Investigate Matsuzaka, but be extremely wary — think Sexson wary — about committing to too many years.
Be very happy with two of the above. Ignore the rest. After all, Beer and sushi go well together. Garlic fries and peanuts are solid additions to most any meal. But you most likely wouldn’t want to throw all four into the stomach at the same time.
And at Safeco, you couldn’t afford to do that anyway.
Comments
156 Responses to “The 2006 Free Agent Pitching Buffet”
ewwwww
Felix
Loaiza
Moyer
Pineiro
Madritsch/Foppert/Harris
we might get all the way to 75 wins next year!
Two footnotes: Dave has mentioned that acquiring a pitcher or two via trade is possible, and might be preferable. The post doesn’t consider this.
Also, one topic that really deserves its own post: it will be interesting to see how Bill Bavasi chooses to approach this off-season, since in my opinion the Mariners need a Burnett or Millwood type arm if they hope to contend in 2006. It’s no secret that Bavasi will be on the hot seat if the team doesn’t improve dramatically next year.
Yet, to this point at least, he hasn’t mortgaged the future to improve the squad’s prospects in the near term. He’s traded for well-regarded young players in addition to giving out big contracts. For this, I think he ought to be commended.
But this offseason, he’s likely going to be faced with the choice of whether or not to overpay for AJ Burnett. I don’t think we have enough information right now to evaluate whether that would be a good decision or not, and it obviously depends upon the state of the team at the time when that choice presents itself. But it bears watching.
Interesting discussion on pitching but none of this does anything to remedy the fact that the Mariners can’t get on base often enough.
I don’t think this is off topic if we are talking of some sort of improvement after two years of really bad baseball.
I don’t disagree. But I think Jeremy Reed and Adrian Beltre will both be better next year, and it’s possible Jose Lopez will be ready.
Plus, for better or for worse, we’re locked into a lot of our offensive players. The pitching staff — again, for better or for worse — is in flux, and decisions have to be made.
If Bavasai is still here ???We better not get another spiezio hopefully both of them are gone together.I think they need to play lopez and leave willie as a nice bench player that he is..Oh but willie hustles so what he is a 250 hitter when it is all said and done.Lopez can rake and rake and then rake some more let him play let him play isnt that what they said in the bad news bears?
I can’t believe that you think garlic fries, which inflict so much horror on those in the immediate ingestion and digestion vicinities, are a safe choice.
Philistine. There is no such thing as too much garlic in my cosmology. Generally deep-fried plus garlic equals yummy.
Derek, fair readers, has a delicate constitution. Perhaps I can interest you in a nice cucumber salad?
You can have too much garlic like you can have too much pitching.
Jeff (or anybody else who knows) –
I agree with the premise that without a significant upgrade in pitching, the Mariners won’t contend in 2006. I too am a fan of Matsuzaka, but why would he be posted this year (other than the long-time rumors he will be) if he wasn’t last Fall, after all the build-up then?
A word on Kenny Rogers: Given the choice between over-40 lefties Rogers and Jamie Moyer, the PR gap is so overwhelming that it would likely overwhelm management’s consideration of any ability gap that exists. I can’t see the team showing any interest in Rogers.
Paul Byrd, on the other hand. That would be a typical “we think he’s better than he really is because he always pitches so well against us” signing. Much more plausible, though not a possibility to get excited about.
umm, a nice cucumber salad with onions.
thank goodness you are on top of the subject. Why, somehow I had somehow missed the whole thing until the always on-top-of-it Steve Kelley pointed out the need this morning — “This offseason, will he be able to sign a No. 1 starter who complements can’t-miss Felix Hernandez?” — in his groundbreaking piece about Bavasi.
Pete, the status of Matsuzaka’s posting is unclear, and you’re right, I should have made that clear.
The problem I have with garlic fries is that I smell them, believe that I want them, and after I eat two or three I’ve had enough and am stuck with the rest of them. Isn’t that more like a James Baldwin signing? One or two good starts and then you wonder, “what the hell were we thinking?”
What are the chances either Livingston or Bazardo making next year’s staff? I would doubt that they open the season in the rotation, but I would expect them to possibly make debuts sometime next year.
Huh.
King Felix (coming from the ‘pen in April to keep him under 200 IP)
Millwood
Loaiza
Moyer
anyone from Livingston/Bazardo/Madritsch/Pineiro
I suppose it could work.
Who, as of now, will be on the market the following year?
#2.
Jeff, this may be the subject for another post, but who might be good trade targets that the M’s could pursue and how would they rank relative to the “food” above?
How about the current rotation:
Felix-Kettle Corn
Moyer-Bud Light (doesn’t blow you away but lasts and lasts)
Piniero-the piece of hot dog I dropped on the ground
Meche-the gross oozy stuff that comes out of a mustard container
Franklin-artificial flavoring
While adjusting my FBB lineup on Yahoo, I read that Jason Schmidt’s option is likely to be picked up (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5340/news). Although that means he won’t become a free agent, it doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t be traded. He’s someone I’d like to pursue.
This team needs two SP’s and a MOTO LH bat to contend, NEXT YEAR! They have the resources as they only seem to be on the hook for about $55mm as of today.
My first choice would be Millwood as he appears to finally be fully healthy and would be sick in Safeco with this defense behind him.
Burnett also is a possibility unless the numbers get really crazy (like $12-15mm/yr crazy). The M’s have the resources to overspend and must realize that they may need to in order to acquire the talent they need. The scary thing is they could afford to get both, but as an M’s fan I know better and pray they get one of the two.
I like the idea of Matsuzaka (although I admit to never having seen him play), especially since he would be a less expensive option (due to M’s “fuzzy” accounting practices) and would be thrilled if he was in addition to Burnett or Millwood.
I would rather see them spend the money on FA pitchers and use their trade assets on a MOTO LH like Dunn or even Overbay. Or they could go the FA route with Giles, who would be a perfect fit (assuming he didn’t jack his knee yesterday!).
The M’s have the resources and anything short of two TOR starters and a MOTO bat would be a dissapointing offseason, IMO.
a. climacus said:”Who, as of now, will be on the market the following year?”
a general list of possibles for the next 5 years: http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagent.html
a little OT, but AAAAAAAAAAARRGHHHHHHHHHH I hate Levesque!!!
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/levesque/238364_leve29.html
Matsuzaka isn’t a free agent until after the 2007 season. If he’s posted at all, it’ll probably be after the 2006 season, a la Ichiro. I really can’t see any reason at all for Seibu to post him this year, especially given the way they’ve been doing (the reigning Japan Series champs finishing in the second division? The horror!). And if Seibu does post him, I’d really worry about the amount of money the Mariners would need to throw at him to get him, honestly — I’d guess the winning posting bid alone will run at least somewhere in the $10 million range, let alone whatever salary he’d command beyond that. It pains me to hear so many people speculating about him being on the 2006 Mariners roster. 2007, maybe. 2008, definitely. Next year? I don’t think so.
I’m a big Millwood fan. Even though he’s cursed with run support issues this year, he’s still a good and dependable pitcher, and it’s really unlikely he’ll stay in Cleveland. Plus, I’d really love to see him and Felix fighting over who gets to steal #34 from Bryan Price next year.
Jeff (Shaw), great piece of writing. Not only imformative but also entertaining.
Jeff (Weaver), uggh. Not uggh like the piece of hot dog dropped on the ground, but uggh like anything at Hit It Here cafe. The food is fine (and not bad for ballpark food) but you wonder why you paid $12 for it. Weaver would be a serious upgrade from Franklin as a fourth or fifth starter, but he’s going to command 2nd starter money from someone.
Millwood sounds like the guy who should be our #1 target, given the risk associated with Matsuzaka (did he really throw 200 pitches?) and the insane price Burnett will command. Smart move would be to lock up Millwood for three years and an option BEFORE Burnett gets signed at you’re competing with four teams for two pitchers.
Also agree that like-it-or-not, we’re set on offensive starters. You left out Ichiro on the list of those who will improve. Also Torrealba, while simply adequate, is a big jump from Olivo/Borders who were way below replacement level. I guess we COULD spend money on a bat for LF/DH and given that we’re going to play Lopez, Betancourt, and Torrealba, it might be a good idea.
Oh, and uh, the point I meant to make is — you can’t list Matsuzaka in the “Free Agent Market” post, because he isn’t a free agent. If he comes over here at all this year, it won’t be his choice of which team he goes to anyway — it’ll go to whoever bids the highest for him. And even if a team wins a posting bid, it’s not even guaranteed they’ll have the guy playing for him — though I’d hope most players would be a little more reasonable than Hideki Irabu was.
Derek, fair readers, has a delicate constitution.
That’s really quite disappointing. I’d always viewed Derek as a sort of übermensch.
Derek, fair readers, has a delicate constitution.
I’m so going to squash you like a Koopa Troopa for that, Jeff.
In the box score, Bloomquist’s role in the game shows as two hits, a run scored, another batted in. But in the minds of those who appreciate stoutness of heart and dirtiness of uniform, Bloomquist again displayed the stuff of a guy you want playing every single day.
bilbo, that’s awful!
jason
Deanna: you’re right, of course, that Matsuzaka’s not a free agent. But if he becomes available through posting, I’d still like them to take a look at him, hence his inclusion. And yeah, I’d be a bit worried about the money too, but it might at least force the Mariners to eat some words on the whole “separate international budget” business.
Derek: not if I power up on stars and garlic fries first.
King Koopa gets squashed like all the rest. It just takes a little longer. Bring it on.
If this means you grow a ludicrous moustache and don a plumber outfit that I can photograph and put onto a USSM shirt, I’m all for it. I’ll take a little flattening for the sake of the team.
Just to bring this back on topic, if Bloomquist is anything more than a 25th man, this team won’t contend.
Well, I guess if they signed Burnett AND Millwood they may contend anyway, but WFB would be an albatross. Free Lopez!!!
#19, Paul: I agree with you that Schmidt would be interesting to pursue, and other than being older, I think he’s a better bet next year than even Burnett (though an extension for Schmidt beyond 2006 may be a different story).
It’s not surprising to me the Giants would pick up his option, even if they would prefer to rebuild their staff, since the buyout is $3.5M. Even if you assume that the Giants would like to move on, picking up the option and then trading makes a helluva lot more sense than trying to replace Schmidt with $7M (the difference between the $10.5M Schmidt would be owed if his option is picked up, and his buyout).
#20, bilbo: knee (MRI pending) aside, Brian Giles will be 35 in January. I would have loved to have pursued Giles — three years ago. Now — not so much. He hasn’t really begun to decline yet, but my guess is that even if you could get him on a three-year deal, he would pretty soon after next year. He is the type of high-OBP, LH gap+ power hitter that the M’s should pursue, though.
Thanks, Jeff, for kicking off this conversation. As much as we need rotation help, the M’s really need to address the offense first. Barring insane overpayment, I don’t think a Millwood or Burnett will give serious consideration to a team trying to contend with Reed, Betancourt, Lopez, Torrealba and Morse making up 5/9 of the lineup.
Re: #21 — thanks msb.
If this means you grow a ludicrous moustache and don a plumber outfit that I can photograph and put onto a USSM shirt, I’m all for it. I’ll take a little flattening for the sake of the team.
Okay, this has to happen now.
Hmm. Would you call it “Super Mariner Brothers”?
34. Brian, Morse won’t be starting next year, if he is even on this team (trade bait). And there is nothing wrong with Bet (D Wiz), Lopez (future star),Reed (projects to solid OBP/Avg next year), Torrealba (OK for 1 year, then Clement) up the middle if they are surrounded by Ichiro, Sexson, Beltre, Ibanez, and a MOTO LF. That is actually a pretty darn potent lineup IMO (probably top third of the AL). It is the “Stars and Scrubs” philosophy that this team needs to take to succeed and Bavasi appears to be pursuing!
a little off topic, but it should put everyone in a good mood. jeff clement is tearing the cover off the ball in wisconsin….369/.449/.583
do you think he’ll be moved up a level again this year, or will he just finish off the season in low A?
Make sure you warp to Level 3 and get all the free guys. Video games just don’t compare these days to the original NES. I used to teach and my kids would complain about memory cards. Memory cards?! Have you ever tried beating Mario Brothers in one sitting?
How about this for the rotation:
Felix: Link
Moyer: Luigi
Meche: Princess
Piniero: Toad
Franklin: Donkey Kong
Well, on the Bloomie front, he may Display all the attribute of someone who should start everyday, but he doesn’t posses the SKILLS of someone who should start everyday. Would I prefer it if Griffey played like Bloomie, and kept the skills of Griffey? Every manager/coach loves the floorburn player. They also know that the better player gets the playing time.
As for the pitchers, I like the idea of pursuing both Millwood and Burnett, with the idea of getting Millwood early. And then signing a mid-tier pitcheras well. Look to build a solid team for ’06, and then contend for ’07. Might even catch lightning in a bottle next year if all goes well.
I can’t imagine they would bump Clement up twice in less than half a year. Plus, he’s already scheduled for the Arizona Fall League. At most, I would imagine, if he’s really impressive in the AFL and/or spring training, they might send him straight to AA San Antonio next year and skip Inland Empire. But I wouldn’t even expect that much.
I’d take Paul Byrd on another one-year contract — flyball pitcher, not a lot of strikeouts, but very few walks.
Garlic Fries Yee gads do those things drive me crazy.Whenever anyone within 30 feet of you has them the odor is like a rendering house.I would hope that Kevin Millwood would not stink up the place like garlic fries. With such a weak free agent class I”m hoping that Bavasi goes the trade route rather than free agency. Whenever you go through the free agent route you pay more than any other team was willing to pay in nearly all cases unless you get a local discount because the player is from the area. Billy Beane always discovers nuggets through trades–of course he also seems to have people who can evaluate talent.
I was wondering when we would start focusing more on 2006. Good discussion.
Here is what I think that the M’s should do this next offseason:
-sign one of the best free agent starters, or trade for an ace-quality pitcher. The best candidate is AJ Burnett. He is going to cost a lot, given the lack of quality players that will likely be free agents. However, Burnett is the only guy on the market who is a legit ace. He strikes out a ton of guys, and can dominate. With Felix, the M’s would have a great 1-2 punch. The second best player is Kevin Millwood, and after that, the talent level really drops off. Millwood had a really good year, and could get a contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, 40 mil. If Burnett will cost 4 year, 50 mil, I think that it is worth the extra cash. It is a lot of $$$, but the M’s have to do something. Millwood is a great plan B, but I think that Burnett is worth the extra money. Burnett is a guy who could win the Cy-Young. Millwood is just solid. The trade options could include guys like CC Sabathia, Kerry Wood, and Barry Zito. Who knows who else might become available. I think that Burnett makes more sense, as he won’t cost the M’s prospects (except a draft pick).
-sign a second starter. This would be a solid #3 pitcher who can eat innings, or a guy with some upside. The best option would be if Japanese RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka is posted by his team. If the M’s win the bidding for exclusive rights to Matsuzaka, they would not have to bid against other teams, and he would be relatively inexpensive. Other options include possible trades for guys like Odalis Perez, Kip Wells, or other solid #3 pitchers. Loaiza is an interesting possiblity as well.
The M’s should have over $25 million to spend next year. With this type of cash, they could sign two good starters. One ace, and one middle-of-rotation type. However, they won’t be able to do so if they bring back Moyer. I like Moyer, but the M’s need to continue to build. Building around guys over 40 is not really smart. Moyer will get 2-year offers from contending teams for more money than he would be worth to the M’s. Even if he gives the M’s a crazy hometeam discount, I still think that the M’s should look elsewhere. Plus, the M’s will get two draft picks as compensation for Moyer, which will help them add talent into the organization. The M’s need to build through the draft, and they can’t do that if they keep losing 2-3 picks each year.
With Felix, that would leave the M’s with three spots in the rotation sorted out. The remaining two could be filled during spring training by the best two pitchers from the group of Piniero, Meche, Madritsch, Harris, Foppert and Livingston. Out of these guys, I think that Madritsch and Foppert are the real interesting ones. Foppert in particular could be the guy who really steps up next year. Regardless, I think that it is a safe bet that two of the above could fill out the last two spots in the rotation.
Thanks, Jeff, for kicking off this conversation. As much as we need rotation help, the M’s really need to address the offense first. Barring insane overpayment, I don’t think a Millwood or Burnett will give serious consideration to a team trying to contend with Reed, Betancourt, Lopez, Torrealba and Morse making up 5/9 of the lineup.
So you think Reed, Lopez, Betancourt and Morse have NO collective ability to improve in 2006 from their collective performance in 2005, and that Torrealba is going to be as bad as Olivo and Borders were for a good chunk of the year?
Also note that Ibanez turned into a pretty decent hitter after we gave up on him for the likes of Al Martin and Ruben Sierra. I can understand the logic of signing a free agent import since we don’t have anything other than Ibañez for lefty power…but our most established starter is 41 and a free agent, and our most promising starter is 19 and unable to handle a heavy workload without severe risk of arm damage. The offense will get better if we go young- the rotation outside of King Felix could make Texas look like the early 60′s Dodgers if we don’t spend time on it first.
#40 Super Mario Baseball comes out today, you could almost build that rotation if you wanted. Although Link is not in the game.
38. That’s a LOT OF projection there. From bottom of the barrel to top third? With one acquisition and added experience? Not likely.
bilbo said: “Just to bring this back on topic, if Bloomquist is anything more than a 25th man, this team won’t contend.”
well, his manager seems to be still unwilling to call he an everyday player when asked just that by local media members. I’ve also been entertained that the KOMO folks do try to tamp down the ‘he’s the 2nd baseman’ enthusiasm of the Bloomie fans, and to hear them point out the lack of OBP, etc. (Blowers is willing to give more credit to his dirtbag qualities than the non-players do)
It’s been interesting as folks call in with their ideas for the team next year– when someone bitched about Franklin in the rotation, Drayer pointed out that the original plan this year was to have him in the bullpen, and (I can’t recall if she was quoting Price or Hargrove as they left Arizona) it was said that if they finished the year with him in the rotation, the year hadn’t gone the way they hoped…
They made Super Mario baseball? Wow I might have to get that. Too bad my GameCube controllers always break.
As far as the offense moving into the top third, I don’t think that’s that outlandish, but is dependent on Ichiro, Reed, and Beltre having much better years. I don’t think it’s too far-fetched to think those 3 guys could do that. A lefty-power bat would be nice, and I hope it’s in the plans, but this rotation is a mess. Get Burnett AND Millwood.
Burnett or Morris or Garland(pick one)
Hernandez
Moyer
Mandritsch
Piniero/Meche
Jeff,
I personally would love to see Garlic Frylock on Aqua Teen Hunger Force.
Regarding the analysis, I agree with Burnett being #1 on this list and think Loaiza may not be a bad fit either as long as the situation is low-pressure (meaning he doesn’t have to be the ace because of a high salary or pitch in a large market like NY, where he tanked and pulled a Ryan Franklin on Yankee fans.) Just out of curiosity, why don’t you think Matt Morris would be a good fit here? Is it the switch of leagues? Is it simply because the Cardinals plan on resigning him? Or is there something else?
#45, Jerry: in order to get draft picks in compensation for Moyer (who may only want to play one more year), the M’s would have to offer him arbitration. If Moyer would really prefer to be in Seattle — as appears to be the case, if the reports of trades he’s turned down are true — then the M’s would have to be willing to accept the risk that Moyer would simply accept arbitration, and perhaps get more than they would want to pay him for one year.
I think it is worthwhile to negotiate seriously with Jamie for one year, at no more than $1.5M-$2M. Maybe an option year, with a relatively small ($750K?) buyout. If he won’t bite, I am not sure I would offer arbitration, since I think he’ll get more than that in arbitration, and I don’t think he wants to go anywhere else.
I would keep moyer on a 1 year deal for no more then 3 million .He still is better then anything we have thats not named felix.Franklin this year 2 million piniero 5 million mecehe 2.5 million.The guy is old and crusty but he shows up every 5th day and gives you a chance to win.There is something to be said for that we never no whats coming out of those other 3.Do we?I love harris but he is a middle reliever as bad as i hate to say that it is the truth.Thats what franklin is also but somehow price fell in love with him and he made him a starter.I guess they dont love ryan any more.Lets hope mads heels and bavasai doesnt screw up and sign the wrong freeagent.I will bet he gats the wrong guy if they havent canned him buy then.
Oh, and I should have added: the M’s should take DMZ’s Moyer as home-only starter seriously . . ..
Okay, the next time someone suggests signing Jon Garland, they’re going in the moderation queue. We’ve corrected that about 8 times. If you just don’t care do any kind of research, then you don’t have a right to complain when we hold your posts before they hit the site.
No reason not to keep Moyer. He would be great on this team for another year, but only as the 4th best pitcher. Anything less is a disappointment.
Felix
FA (Millwood, Burnett)
FA/trade (Matsu, Loaiza, etc)
Moyer
Piniero/Mads/Foppert/etc
That is a rotation that can win a pennant.
50. That’s looking for a lot of improvement from Ichiro, Ibanez and Beltre as well as Reed, Lopez etc. I’m optimistic, but it’s still doubtful.
I’ve been desperately scouring the free-agent list to uncover a gem….depressing.
FWIW, who do you guys think we could nab that isn’t a big-name pitcher?
Perhaps someone a year or two aways from realizing their potential. I know most stars-to-be are already tagged, but at this point I’d get excited about Milk Bones.
I say do whatever it takes to get Burnett, overpay if necessary. It’s not like they don’t have the money, and he’s the only legitimate ace in the deck of free agent pitchers. Even if it goes as high as 12 to 15 million, I’d still say they should pursue it. If they hope to compete next year they have no other choice, because an ace pitcher to complement their other one is the main thing that they need. Sure a power bat is desirable, but Beltre will be better next year, as will Reed and probably Ichiro.
I’m sympathetic to the “we should overpay to get Burnett” argument. I think there’s a real case to be made there, depending of course on what happens with the markets (trade and free agent).
I haven’t decided yet whether I think that’s the way to go, and I can see both sides of the issue. But they should definitely pursue him unless something drastically changes between now and then.
I don’t have time this week, but eventually, I’ll put up a post on why Millwood is not only the better deal than Burnett, but Millwood might just be the better pitcher.
Considering he’ll cost at least 40 percent less, it’s a no brainer, to me.
What’s the status on Madritsch? I understand that his injury is basically healed and that he’s starting with throwing exercises. Does the team have him in the plans for next year’s rotation and should it?
While I think it’s worth throwing our name in the hat, I’m not sure I want to get into a pissing contest with the Yankees, Mets and/or Red Sox on Burnett. How about getting Millwood and Schmidt, if available? Or Millwood and Morris? Instead of throwing all of our cash on one arm.
Dave that’d make a good post. Millwood is still only 30, and will come much cheaper.
I still say get both of them. I’m sick of watching bad baseball, and I have a lot more patience than most people. Bavasi is going to have to make some big decisions this offseason.
I wanted to post on this topic, but I’m trying to beat Super Mario Bros. in one setting (again). Ahh, the power of Red Bull.
Oh, to pool the collective opinions on this here board – filtered and digested in the form of golden wisdom – into cool and deadly pressure in the form of petition right smack-dab onto the FO’s doorstep…..*shudders*
We can solve the Mariner problems of Felix’s pitch count, our starting rotation, the WFB crisis, the non-value of players etc.
I’ll go back into hiding now.
Hmm… to go with Jeff’s awesome metaphor, I wonder how good a beer vendor A.J. Burnett’s agent is. I mean, you know, sometimes you really don’t mind buying the overpriced beer from those really awesome funny vendors, especially that one dude with the long hair and curled mustache who comes out and yells “BEEEEEEEEEER!”, but the lackluster vendors can only sell the overpriced beer to the people who are really desperate for it, y’know?
Then again, Millwood’s agent is Scott Boras, and he sells tons of overpriced beer…
In college, the dorm cafeteria used the previous day’s hamburger patties to make some sort of Mexican stew. We called it “Albondigas de Muerte.”
Millwood won’t be cheap. He has had a fine year and he will want a 3 year deal. I wouldn’t do it.
What does USSM project for Moyer in 2006?
Lemme see if I can preview Dave’s “Millwood is a better option than Burnett” post:
Consider the following numbers in the context of park factors, which show Jacobs Field as the #1 hitter’s ballpark in baseball, and Dolphins Stadium solidly in the top third for pitchers. Also consider that Burnett’s quality of batters faced numbers are .255/.324/.402, compared to Millwood’s .265/.330/.421.
Burnett: 3.76 P/PA, 15.4 P/IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.70 K/BB (59:159 BB:K), 1.19 WHIP, .234 AVG, .616 OPS, 39.9 VORP, 1.7 Support Neutral Value over Average, +1.51 “luck factor”
Millwood: 3.68 P/PA, 15.3 P/IP, 7.12 K/9, 3.03 K/BB (40:121 BB:K), 1.17 WHIP, .238 AVG, .682 OPS, 39.7 VORP, 1.8 Support Neutral Value over Average. -6.05 “luck factor”
Millwood is only 25 months older than Burnett, and a strong case can be made that he was the better pitcher in 2005.
I don’t think the Mariners could overpay for AJ Burnett. This team is so bereft of pitching and so high in revenue that it NEEDS to overpay to compete. I’d rather overpay several millions a year for quality than one or two million a year for mediocrity.
This is similar to the hitting situation last year. I’m happier overpaying Beltre $11 million, but getting decent production, rather than overpaying Corey Koskie $6 million and getting Corey Koskie.
I forgot to link to 2005 park factors:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
There are only two identifiable “impact” starters. There are, oh, I don’t know, 27 major league teams that need pitching, six or seven of which are legitimate 2006 contenders with money. If you were Burnett or Millwood, would you dine out on what the Seattle Mariners have to offer?
Sketchy second-tier guys like Matt Morris and his wonky shoulder or Estaban Loiza (and you think Meche is hard to watch) aren’t answers. This team will have to trade for pitching.
Burnett and Millwood might poke around — and then call the health inspector.
Let’s keep an eye on the numbers and use them intelligently….A three year deal for a 30-year old pitcher? Not that risky as far as I’m concerned….and Pete has a good point about putting up those kind of numbers in Jacobs….Let’s not get hypnotized into fixating on the biggest name when its possible to get equivalent production from someone cheaper.
Would I dine out on what the Mariners are offering? Well, their green is as good as anyone else’s—the trade deficit isn’t THAT bad. If the offer’s competitive, the chances are there (and THAT is when the secondary factors such as livability and travel may come into play). THe front office can’t just throw money at players…but they aren’t that poor, either…
Following up on Pete, I did some career numbers for Millwood and Burnett:
Millwood 0.92 HR/9, 2.73 BB/9, 7.5 K/9 – 2.71K/BB 244 Starts from 97-05
Burnett 0.69 HR/9, 3.92 BB/9, 7.8 K/9 – 2K/BB 125 Starts from 99-05
When you look at their career numbers, Burnett does not look very durable compared to Millwood.
If we sign Millwood or Burnett, I think Ted Lilly could be a good gamble for the right price.
#74, Zip: any pitcher will be happy to consider pitching in Safeco, expecially with the defense the Mariners field and if they can be satisfied the team will improve on offense within the first few years of the deal. “With money” is always relative — it involves not only revenue (there are probably only two teams with greater revenue), but committed payroll. The Mariners combination of high revenues on which to draw, and a low # for committed payroll, will be intriguing to top pitchers.
Let’s not forget these other Sele-esque free agent pitchers that the M’s may invite to spring training (don’t laugh):
1. John Halama
2. Paul Abbott
3. Brett Tomko
4. Jeff Fassero
And lastly, Mark Hendrickson, the Tampa Bay starter with the 6.27 ERA, but he’s from Mt. Vernon and went to WSU. Sign him up!
Conor, Lilly isn’t due to be a free agent this winter (see Jon Garland). The Blue Jays still control his rights for another year, although I suppose it’s possible they might trade or non-tender him.
Don’t forget additional appeal for big-money free agents: No state income tax in Washington.
Does anyone care to post why Matt Morris is not a good option? I know he has injury concerns, but he may come cheap and since we need multiple arms, he might be worth a risk. I’d just like to hear the argument against….
just to be contrarian, a con to Safeco? To a lot of free agents Seattle is very, very far away. Of course, once they get out here for a visit it may make a difference. FWIW, it is said that Pavano was surprised by how much he liked his visit, and if it hadn’t been for that whole East Coast kid/Yankees thing…
Andren said:”Oh, to pool the collective opinions on this here board – filtered and digested in the form of golden wisdom – into cool and deadly pressure in the form of petition right smack-dab onto the FO’s doorstep”
sounds like time for another Pizza Feed with Special Guest.
re: 83. I was wondering the same thing…
I’ll order a Millwood Steak, medium-well. Not Filet Mignon – but you know what you are getting and it will satisfy right down to the last bite. Throw in a side of Morris and top it off with a LH, LF with everything (OPS) on it.
I forgot about Lilly, even though Conor and I discussed this very prospect at the feed. Yes, they should definitely take a look at him.
Rating: Rock Candy, fun until it breaks.
I would argue for a more measured off-season, even if Bavasi’s butt is on the line. I would limit the action to a signing of Millwood, if possible, and then see where this team is in June and make further trades if necessary to compete.
As people have noted… Reed, Ichiro, Beltre, etc., are expected to have higher OBP next year and this expectation along with a massive overhaul of the starting rotation maybe just might get the M’s into a playoff hunt.
Too iffy for me. We already have 3 big contracts in Ichiro, Beltre, and Sexson. I believe we should add just the 1 in Millwood to give the M’s flexibility in the future while still having a team that can be improved mid-season if it overperforms early on.
It’s not instant gratification but I think there might be some better free agent deals in 2006-2007.
Certainly the Seattle distance factor is something to take seriously. That’s why we DO have to overpay on a lot of people, and that’s one reason why there are so many local guys on the team—the distance factor ain’t no factor when “home” is here, with your family.
Jeff, Lilly isn’t an impending free agent, at least according to ESPN’s bio.
Stop, or Dave’s going to have to put YOU on moderation.
If the Yanks fail to make the playoffs — make that the second round of the playoffs, at least — the cost of starting pitching is going to be astronomical. Burnett’s going to see a bidding war that will make your eyes pop out of your head. That’ll drag Millwood up, too. I think these are going to be very large, very long contracts — the biggest and longest in Mariner history, if we want to play.
My biggest fear is we can’t pull the trigger on the big deal, and end up giving “Burnett money” (as being estimated today) for Weaver or Rogers. More mediocrity we don’t need.
Certainly the Seattle distance factor is something to take seriously. That’s why we DO have to overpay on a lot of people, and that’s one reason why there are so many local guys on the teamâ€â€the distance factor ain’t no factor when “home†is here, with your family.
Do Florida and Miami negotiate discounts with the free agents who live in the Caribbean and Venezuela?
It’s interesting that Arod wouldn’t take a discount to play in Boston – a little farther than his home in Florida.
Have you considered the fact that 20 other GMs reached the same conclusion about the market and Millwood, therefore driving up his value beyond what he’s worth?
I’ve seen a couple mentions of this, but I’m wondering what is the basis for thinking the Giants would make Jason Schmidt available? The team that they’ve built is a veteran club designed to contend next year when Bonds returns. Look at their roster moves in the last year – signing Matheny, signing M. Alou, trading for Randy Winn – each move made the team older or at least more experienced. You can argue that this is a terrible strategy, but it seems apparent that this is how the Giants are proceeding.
Personally, I think Jason Schmidt looks overworked and is a big risk at the price tag now that they’ve picked up the option – but he fits the Giants’ m.o. perfectly. I see no basis for this speculation.
It’s interesting that Arod wouldn’t take a discount to play in Boston – a little farther than his home in Florida.
Did you mean “would” take a discount? Because that’s what happened.
That’s right. I forgot that it was the union that stopped the deal.
as Mike Snow mentioned (#82) Seattle is overpaying when they put the same money on the table because there is no state income tax here!
87. No offense to you personally, but that is the kind of attitude that sucks this team into the crapper. This team has the financial flexibility this year to fill the holes on their team (2 SP and 1 MOTO LH bat) and make a run for the next several years. Waiting for something better to come along is a defeatist attitude or one implored by small market teams that don’t have a choice. If that is the tact that the M’s end up taking I will be seriously PO’d.
To be more clear, the hometown discount makes sense to me but is there any evidence of it being a factor in contract values? Or is this in the realms of speculation?
87: THe problem with waiting to improve mid season is that you can’t sign free agents mid season, and can only trade if you’ve got some extra parts that someone wants.
Right now our rotation looks like Felix and pray for rain combined with a retractable roof malfunction (I’m not one of those who are optimistic about Moyer continuing to defy old age). Maybe a couple of prospects can show something in Septmeber, but I think we’ll need at least two starters.
Scooter, who is optimistic about Moyer?
Is Weaver likely to be expensive? If he’s fairly cheap, his numbers are decent this year. I saw him pitch several times when he was with Detroit and he looked to have top of rotation stuff. Too old for that now, no doubt.
However, his #s this year with the Dodgers:
IP 181, H 184; BB 36, K 126. ERA 4.22.
The Dodgers have a pitching-oriented park, but if he just duplicated his numbers with the Mariners he’d be an upgrade over 2,3,4,5 starters of this year (if we consider Hernandez the #1).
93 Bonds will not return next year or ever.
It still boggles my mind that we committed over $100 mil in the past offseason and our offense is ‘Royal’.
Re: Weaver. I think that I too, am alittle higher on him than most people (atleast based on the lack of discussion here). A real quick and dirty look at his stats has him right above a 4.00ERA his whole career (not counting the failed NY experiment; which I know is kind of like saying, hes been really good if you dont count the times he’s sucked). However, hes given up HRs at a larger rate this year (espn has 27 and counting) than in any year since his rookie season in 1999 (where he also gave up 27). I would like to view this as outside the norm as he has not given up more than 19 in the past 4 seasons. At 29, he is still young and IMO a solid pickup if he comes down from the $9.35mill he’s making this year. If he could be had for less than Millwood he might be a good get.
#93 Tim K. -
I was one of the people who mentioned the Giants. I can only speculate about their motivation, but their starting rotation isn’t very deep. Going into this year, after Schmidt, it was soft-tossing lefty Kirk Reuter (he of the nearly 6.00 ERA; since released), Brett Tomko (nearly 5.00 ERA and now injured), Noah Lowry, and the M’s new acquisition, Jesse Foppert. And Schmidt struggled at times this year.
The thinking, I would guess, is to trade Schmidt for two MLB-ready arms and a prospect (that was exactly what they were rumored to be asking at the deadline), to gain depth where it is now lacking. If they don’t, all the Randy Winns and Moises Alous in the world won’t help them compete next year. This isn’t a team with the resources to compete for FAs in the same way the Mariners should be able to.
I agree that Schmidt is a risk, but not a huge one. I would certainly see if the Giants would bite at an offer of two of Piniero, Meche, or Franklin, and one of Nageotte, maybe Livingston, or Baek. The problem is to make that deal worth it, you’d need to extend Schmidt, and I worry about him beyond the next couple of years. Next year at 10.5M is not too bad, though.
Regarding Rogers, I think a 2-year deal would make sense at his age, but the M’s might not offer enough money considering they already have one 40-plus lefty. Plus, and I’m only guessing here, I’m not sure he wants to uproot his family and he might have remembered the booing he got when he pitched here after the cameraman incident. He would definitely benefit from pitching here, and he was an All-Star in a hitter-friendly park this year. But I’d bet that he wouldn’t want to come to Seattle.
Of course, I could also imagine next June when Matt Morrison asks Rogers a stupid question on the anniversary of the cameraman incident. Kenny might do Mariner TV viewers a great favor that day.
100, I agree that Weaver is an interesting candidate.
Also, given that the Yank payroll is at $200 million, and that they are already paying a hefty luxury tax, is it an automatic assumption that the Yanks will continue to add payroll? My first reaction is: yes, they will go up to $500 million to win another WS before George leaves the game.
My guess is that the Yanks go hard after Burnett and give him $14 million a year. That will leave Millwood to go to the Red Sox.
(I think Seattle’s chances of landing Burnett or Millwood are between slim and none unless we overpay by $4 mil a year or so. Getting people to move from the east coast to Seattle to come play on a 90 loss team is a tough sell, even for a talented GM.)
Bonds will not return next year or ever.
If you’re really that sure about the future, you should be trading stocks and not hanging around on baseball sites. You don’t know that.
I should have been more clear on Lilly.
He is a candidate for trade, and though his contract is up at the end of 2005, he is still under club control. Thanks, Mike.
Can we get an official ruling on whether Lilly is a FA or not? I’ve seen yes and no. If no, he could be a Loaiza type, a secondary target.
The Ms need two SP, no question. The Ms can fill 3/5 of their rotation in house and be competitive, but no more than that.
Order of priority:
Millwood
Burnett
Matsuzaka
Loaiza/Lilly
As far as the LH LF bat, see what the Reds want for Dunn or Griffey (I’d die to have either), if not possible (likely it wont be), go with what you got.
Tony Armas Jr. might be a good free agent signing this off-season if he can remain healthy… which it seems he can’t.
Over at BTF I saw they had a clutch hit on the Sox looking to trade Manny this offseason. For shits&giggles, what would we hafta give up to land him? I’d assume Ray Allen would have to be part of this deal to make it happen.
It’s an opinion, DMZ, just like when one of you authors writes, “Good Pineiro will not return…”, or, “Meche has never been a good pitcher, and never will be…”, or some such.
Requiring everyone…or, in this case…everyone else, to preface their opinions with “in my opinion” is rather redundant, don’t you think?
–editorial police
To follow up on my post, I think our best options to add pitching are via the trade route. And I think everyone not named the King or Ichiro should be on the block. This especially includes Ibanez, Sexson, and Beltre.
To be clear, I’m not saying you trade them this winter. I’m saying there should be no sacred cows. I am also suggesting that the odds of the Ms becoming contending for a WS title in the next three years, at which point Sexson will be 33 and Ibanez 36, are slim.
Let’s acknowledge that our two most productive offensive players are on the wrong side of 30, and let’s stay focused on building a team that will contend for the AL pennant by 2008 or 2009. And if that means trading them while their value is high, then we should do that.
Gary said: “Is Weaver likely to be expensive?”
I think we can guess that, given the price tags last off-season, ALL pitchers are likely to be expensive….
While we are questioning assumptions and thinking about the future, do we agree that as Ichiro continues to age that he will lose a 1/4 step or so to 1st base? Therefore costing him several hits a year. (Have we already started to see that this year?)
And if that is so, do we think he is a good enough ballplayer to adjust his game so that he draws more walks and hits for more power. My answer to this is, yes, he is a good enough ballplayer to make this adjustment, thereby keeping his value high (if not higher) as a hitter.
That said, if this adjustment happens do the Ms need to plan on finding another lead off hitter so Ichiro can drop into the 2 spot.
Wonder what you guys think?
Now that is long term planning! Kelly and Andren should be selling short right now.
Seriously, sell high is right. But that isn’t a strategy that the M’s have demonstrated proficiency in. (errggh, bad sentence.)
For my “on topic” contribution, I am not so sure that trading for players is necessarily a handicap vs. picking up free agents.
Generally speaking, you have to overpay free agents as well as cough up a draft pick. While a trade may cost players or prospects, or both, you get to deal from organizational surplusses, and you don’t have to overpay.
The drift is, I don’t see that the M’s have to, or even should, try to fill all of their needs in the free agent market this winter.
Try to land Millwood or Burnett. See if that left-handed, mashing, LF is available. Maybe pick up a stop-gap 2B until Lopez is ready. But, don’t be afraid to trade for them…even if you have to wait ’til mid-season to do it.
104 – I agree it might make some sense for the Giants to deal Schmidt, but based on their track record I’m not sure we can expect them to do the sensible thing. Rumors at the trade deadline are of questionable utility here. I look at the deal earlier in the season when they traded two potential starters (J. Williams and Aardsma) to the Cubs for LaTroy Hawkins. Perhaps that’s a better deal than I realize, and maybe the young guys’ potential value as starters is neglible, but it looks (again) like favoring veteran, name players over youth and potential.
I appreciate your thinking. Obviously we’re not gonna resolve this between the two of us. I just don’t see Schmidt leaving SF before Bonds does….
101 – I don’t know if Bonds will return or won’t. But the Giants seem to be building around him for one last grasp at the ring – that was my only point. Not saying they’re right to do so.
Sorry if someone mentioned this already- but Millwood has got the AL thing working for him. Almost all NL pitchers lose a little luster off their numbers when they come to the AL (except Chacon, but he was coming from Colorado). Plus, there would be no period of adjustment of learning new hitters. It all depends on the money of course, but it seems like Millwood has the potential to be a much better deal for the Mariners.
At this time, I guess I would prefer to see the M’s go after Millwood. After some of the comments showing the periferal numbers, he seems to have very similar numbers as Burnett, and the added benefit of health. That being said, I think the M’s need to get one of the Burnett/Millwood/Matsuzaka trio. To go into next year with the rotation of Hernandez, Moyer, Pineiro, Meche, and a fifth (for me, to drink every 5 days) would be tough to take. These past 2.5 years have been hard to handle. I feel like we are back in the old days.
I’m not counseling doing nothing… I’m counseling doing less than the wish lists of most people on this board. We need one starting pitcher acquisition, at a minimum.
Take it back to the beginning of this season… how many people here thought we might compete with the Spring 2005 team? Would a healthy Bobby Madritsch really have made a difference? We had collapses across the board, and predictably Felix wasn’t ready until 2/3′s of the season.
All I’m saying is that if you thought this team would be decent at the beginning of this year, then basically adding in a full season of Felix and a Millwood type pitcher would seem to be a major improvement.
As for mid-season trades, someone mentioned there being no free agents at mid-season. Technically, that’s true. But you have free agents to be that some teams are looking to trade, and other straight salary dumps available for trade.
I just don’t want to look back 3 years from now and see that the Mariners had signed the equivalent of Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton, because no matter how you slice it, Burnett AND Millwood represent the same type of investment and the same type of risk as Colorado made and took on several years ago.
By the way, I have no idea what a MOTO is.
In other words, be free in your spending…but leave a good reserve in the gas tank.
Rusty – MOTO = Middle of the order
Dammit! Sorry for the multiple posts, I’m trying to annoy you by taking my HTML lessons in public here….
For comparison purposes, Age and VORPs for the past three years (’03-’04-’05 to date-total):
Crap. Kill me now. Or tell me how to do a monospaced table in WordPress without having to type each individual non-breaking-space code in…
And here I was thinking MOTO was Master of the Obvious. Not so obvious after all.
I got it.
PRE works. OK. I am a moron. Thanks.
What those VORPs tell us, I dunno. I don’t think Rogers is a good answer because he’s 40, but I was surprised to see Washburn at the top. I think Weaver, Loaiza and Byrd (and Rogers, because he’s 40) are going to go for the least money, because of their age and (in Weaver’s case) a bad reputation. But it’ll still be big money. The contrarian in me says go for the bad reputation, it’s almost always the best value for money. Go against the grain is usually the best approach. Huh, maybe Rogers IS the right answer, for a one year deal? Corner the market in “how do they do that?” forty-year-olds.
I was wondering why Washburn’s name had not popped up… West Coast guy. Sign him EARLY in the offseason, before the market goes thru the roof.
In post 130, by “West Coast Guy”, I didn’t mean he is from the WC, but he is used to playing here. Less demand from the East Coast big spenders that way, too…
Realistic Rotation
The King
Washburn
Weaver
Moyer
Pinero/Meche/Livingston/Harris
If the FO plays it’s cards right on the FA pitching, there should be some $$ left to give the offense a boost as well. That could be a big “if” however…
Washburn’s name has come up — and Dave has made the case against him in great detail.
Re #112: ajp, that’s apples and oranges. What Dave, DMZ et al. are doing is projecting performance on the field; what you’re doing has nothing whatsoever to do with that. What you’re doing is medical speculation, not projecting performance, with a side of mind-reading.
For the larger question, I think the M’s should go flat-out to sign Millwood; beyond that will depend on analyzing the FAs in the OF (which I haven’t done) and who the potential trade candidates are.
130, 131. Washburn would be 2006′s version of Aaron Sele.
132: I’ve looked at it, it’s not encouraging. Suffice to say, Brian Giles is the cream of the crop. I think maybe Paul Konerko is a FA, so you could consider him as a power guy to bring in and either slot in DH or try to have him play LF.
107 If you’re really that sure about the future, you should be trading stocks and not hanging around on baseball sites. You don’t know that. Wow, thanks for the edification. I stick by my opinions and state them as such. Of course I don’t ‘know that’. What I stated is an opinion, no different than saying such and such is/isn’t a good player?
Do you really think MLB is going to let him come back? Not a conspiracy theorist, but this knee charade is really stretching it.
Ancient Mariner, without letting this degenerate into a name-calling match: You’re wrong. On several levels.
a) What DMZ objected to was voice related. The ring of absolutism. But, that was innapropriate since the post was simply using the editorial voice…which he should know, since he, Dave, et al, use the editorial voice.
b) The differences in making medical, performance, behavioral or other projections are more differences of degree than of kind. They are opinions based on bias. That I lean toward Dave’s and DMZ’s biases is irrelevant, and should be to you also.
c) Most important, check your facts. The little names associated with the posts comes to mind as a good place to start.
132. An opinion is an opinion. Whether it’s based on performance or medical projection is besides the point. You have an opinon about ajp’s or my comments, that’s why you attend this site. Seriously people, let’s enjoy our common interests and not find reason to bicker about senseless details and semantics.
BTW, I don’t want Weaver, he melts down under pressure…in my opinion.
133, Long Suffering: I’ve mentioned why I think Giles is not a good idea (age, likelihood that he’ll get 3+ years and decline sometime during that time), but there is another LH power bat OF who could potentially be available: Hideki Matsui. He has an interesting contract, which I understand to be (from the mlb4u site):
“Hideki Matsui: 3-Year worth 21M- will make in 6M in 2003, 7M in 2004 and 8M in 2005- + he can earn 500K each year in bonuses- + has a complete NO-TRADE clause- + if he does not sign a contract extension or a new contract by Nov. 15, 2005, then the NYY must place him on waivers for the purpose of granting him his release- + if he were to clear waivers he would become a free agent.”
If I understand this, the team that acquires Matsui on waivers (and the M’s would be close to getting first crack at him — only KC is a semi-sure bet to finish with fewer wins than the M’s, and they probably can’t afford Matsui) would get an arbitration-eligible player they could control — albeit expensively — for another three years. I would think the M’s might be in line for Matsui either through waivers or through free agency.
Wow, thanks for the edification. I stick by my opinions and state them as such. Of course I don’t ‘know that’. What I stated is an opinion, no different than saying such and such is/isn’t a good player?Do you really think MLB is going to let him come back? Not a conspiracy theorist, but this knee charade is really stretching it.
So you believe that Bonds has not missed this season because of a knee injury but instead because of some other reason. And this reason, whatever it is, prevents him from coming back next year.
Ooooooooooookay.
An educated retort.
Re #135: a) There you go, making statements based on insufficient evidence — which may well be what DMZ was in fact objecting to.
b) Codswallop. Some opinions are indeed based on bias; others are based on more important and valuable things — like evidence and logic.
c) Nothing to do with checking my facts, merely a brain cramp.
Re #136: Not true. An opinion is a conclusion about the truth of a situation, and there are differences among opinions — namely, some are true, and some are false; some are well-founded and some aren’t. And any opinion which treats Bonds’ knee injury as a “charade” is distinctly not well-founded. Further, from my point of view, you’re insulting and demeaning a great player, which is a lot more than “senseless details and semantics.”
As for Weaver, we’re agreed. (I’d further add that he’s always struck me as a jerk, but I’ll freely admit that to be an opinion without a great deal of foundation in evidence.)
Ancient Mariner, that did not read at all as I intended. My only explanation, and a caution to everyone, is that I typed it hurriedly, and did not proofread it as I was being called away to attend another matter.
I apologize for the tone. Particularly the last, which was a poor attempt at a tongue-in-cheek jab.
I did not think that your reply was out-of-line; I just disagreed.
The news of ‘coming back’, ‘not coming back, ‘coming back’ over and over is a charade.
Heck, even his own manager is clueless as to what is going on.
No amount of arguing with me about my opinion and better yet, what an opinion is, is going to change my opinion.
Bonds is/was a great player, that I agree with you on…but as an outsiders I don’t separate player from man and if my comments are interpreted as ‘insulting and demeaning’ to him, then so be it.
So, to open up another can of worms. If you’re so certain that the great player is coming back, then when? How then do you propose MLB handles the situation? media? records?
Re #141: no problem; I’ve had to make the same sort of disclaimer more times than I care to think (it’s particularly bad when one is the admin of the board in question).
Pete, Yeah I had considered Matsui as early as this preseason when it seemed like they wouldn’t get an extension done, but with the struggling of the Yankees this season, I assume they’ve realized they have to hang onto the players that actually produce and aren’t 49 years old. If Matsui isn’t in pinstripes for 2006 color me shocked. I’d love to see him here though. Or Dunn. Or Griffey.
144, Long Suffering — I think it is a longshot, too, but if Matsui is smart, he may see the handwriting on the Yankee Stadium walls and decide to hightail it out of there before things get even worse than they are now (these contracts, and the team age, only get worse…). It takes two to tango, after all. If he didn’t have some doubts, why haven’t they gotten anything done already, after all the comments from the Yankee FO about how much they want to get it done?
Pete, here’s hoping :fingers crossed:
That would certainly be a huge addition for the Ms.
I would ignore all free agent pitchers that’s going to cost more than 5 million$ a year. You’ll be hard-pressed to find any bargain at that level… meaning, you will at best come out even, and at worst pay way more than you should.
I, for one, don’t give a rats ass if the M’s “overpay” for anyone. Quite frankly, they have put themselves in a position where they are going to have to overpay to make this team good again (unless they want to wait another two years for their young guns to develop/be ready).
Look, the new core of the team (Reed,Bet,Lopez, Torre/Clement, et al) are all CHEAP! The fact that they have a young core and the resources to do it makes it all the more that they should overpay!
Besides, I think this FO has proven that if they don’t use it, they will bury it somewhere in the backyard so what do I care? Hell, front load the deals so that they fit into next years budget w/o destroying future budgets.
I would ignore all free agent pitchers that’s going to cost more than 5 million$ a year. You’ll be hard-pressed to find any bargain at that level… meaning, you will at best come out even, and at worst pay way more than you should.
Now, in a perfect theoretical world, Tom, I might agree with you. But in the realm of actual major league baseball, this strategy would simply alienate an entire fan base and almost certainly get the entire front office fired.
149, Dave – Amen, brother. Fortunately, one guy (Millwood) presents a middle ground of sorts here. I do not agree with those who say the Yankees and Red Sox will snap up Burnett and Millwood. The Mariners have sufficient revenues (and more payroll room to work with) than either of them, and both teams were over the luxury tax threshhold in 2005.
Millwood already “failed” in Philadelphia and picked up a rep as being a guy who doesn’t respond well to pitching in tough environments. I don’t think NY or Boston will be in on him.
But, then, if Millwood doesn’t have that all-important Bloomquistian/Speizian “grit”, how likely is it that the M’s will be in on him?
Pretty darn likely.
Bavasi doesn’t seem as wed to ‘grit’ as the former front office denizens…
re: Matsui, he says he isn’t interested in going (“Matsui has mentioned that, ideally, he’d like his career to have symmetry: Ten years playing for the Giants, followed by 10 years in the Bronx.”)
Apparently, he is the one who asked (back in spring) to wait on the extension until the season ended, as he had made a contract for three years, and wanted the Yankees to have those full three years to decide on his value.
Great thread as it is still getting posts 11:30 next day.
It seems my feeble mind recalls that the Braves were at one time given the impression Millwood was a talent on the level of their top arms Maddox,Glavine, Smoltz and only let him go because they were more contractually comitted to the others.
History leads me to believe that is likely true. He seems to be the best option, especially if Mariners’ pitching coach would rock on the bench.