Woe is the Offense
JMB · September 10, 2005 at 11:40 am · Filed Under Mariners
I was looking at team batting statistics today, when I discovered a startling fact — the M’s are dead last in all of baseball with a .315 on-base percentage. Seriously, they’re 30th out of 30 teams in Major League Baseball. I knew things were bad, but not this bad. That got me thinking, in a nostaglic sort of way, about when the M’s had a good offense. Remember those days? C’mon, sigh along with me. That’s right, let it out.
Here’s my entry for the 2005 Most Depressing Chart contest:
Year OBP Runs 2000 .361 (3) 904 (4) 2001 .360 (1) 927 (1) 2002 .350 (2) 814 (7) 2003 .344 (7) 795 (11) 2004 .331 (19) 698 (25) 2005 .315 (30) 709*(22) Number in parens is rank among 30 MLB clubs. *Projected total based on runs scored to date
Who else is looking forward to next season’s .300 team OBP?
Comments
67 Responses to “Woe is the Offense”
How does a team go about having THAT low of an OBP? That seems almost impossible.
Who actually draws or even accepts walks? Richie does, Reed likes to work the count but is not respected enough by pitchers to draw that many walks. I guess Ibanez will draw a few. A team of free swingers…it wouldn’t be so bad if some of those free swingers had power.
Bret Boone, Wiki Gonzalez, Dave Hansen, Yorvit Torrealba, Willie Bloomquist, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Greg Dobbs, Wilson Valdez, Pat Borders, Dan Wilson, Miguel Olivo, Scott Spiezio, and a handful of pitchers have all combined for 1610 sub-.300 OBP plate appearances.
Think about that for a second – nearly a third of the Mariners’ plate appearances this year have gone to guys who makes outs more than 70% of the time. It’s not too hard to figure out what went wrong.
I was worried about walks heading into the season. Heck, maybe I should add them to the chart. The M’s are 22nd in MLB this year with 392, or 2.8 per game. The Red Sox draw 4.0 walks per game to lead the majors.
Among players with at least 100 at-bats this season, only Richie Sexson (73 BB, 484 AB) and Raul Ibanez (59, 527) are above the “10% of at-bats” threshold. We can cheat and include Jeremy Reed, who has 43 walks against 439 at-bats, but even then we’re talking about three players out of 14.
Looking at next season, Ibanez and Sexson are about it. Reed can probably be counted on to draw a few more, and he’ll need to if he’s going to hit second. Ichiro and Beltre, even when they’re going well, aren’t going to draw a ton of walks. Lopez, Betancourt, Morse, catcher of the moment… these guys aren’t going to walk.
Would it be too much to ask to add a left-handed, patient, 30+ homer hitter this winter? I’d kill for Bobby Abreu.
jason
I’d even take Brian Giles, who we wouldn’t have to trade King Felix to get.
Is walking a teachable skill? Can a young player learn patience/judgement and go from 20-30 walks to 60 walks?
We’d better hope the batting averages come up. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for Ichiro, Beltre, and catching to hit 30 points higher than this year. Catching has a pretty low bar. Then again, the downward trend is continuing. Our OBP is .308 since the all-star break but that is good for 28th. We are up to 21st in SLG compared with 30th before the break. All numbers NOT parking adjusted.
I was disappointed yesterday to hear of Matt Stairs resigning. I was hoping strongly for him as a big bench bat/platoon DH next year.
Adam Dunn or bust…
Giles is interesting… his power appears mostly gone, but he can still hit for average and draw walks. He’d look pretty goot hitting 2nd. He is getting up in age, and probably makes too much for the hitting skills he has left. Or is he a FA?
jason
Austin Kearns!
I would rather sign say…Mike Hessman, Mitch Jones, Jorge Toca, Eric Munson, Chris Coste, and Brian Daubach to NRIs and try to find this year’s Emil Brown than go out and get Giles.
Almost forgot Graham Koonce.
What about Ryan Howard?
This is a great thread.
Not many responses so far because maybe #2 summed it up. What more can you say? Only one guy draws walks. And if Beltre was backing him up at all and not striking out on the low and away so frequently even Richie’s walks total would be down. How many times have we seen Richie take a bases loaded walk and leave the table set for Adrian. Pitchers seem happy to give up one run and then face (strike out) Adrian. Ichiro doesn’t walk, Bloomquist/Lopez/Reed don’t walk, Ibanez doesn’t really walk a lot (Edgar used to but had horrible speed),Beltre- no, continue down the list…..
This, plus Ichiro’s conservative ways once he does get on base ( Ichiro won’t take many chances and I’ve always felt that he is not disruptive enough of a force on first – maybe the pitchers don’t care because they know the rest of the line up is a push over, or… this is another topic) and the obvious lack of rbi productivity (free swingers that don’t or can’t hit) equals what we see, lousy offense…despite the potential of our players. On paper it looks like we have some good offensive players. Is Hargrove at any fault for this or is it just a recipe for mediocrity?
Maybe Snelling (if he can heal and stay healthy) and Strong can help our club more than we know. Maybe Reed is hurting us more than we know. Maybe Beltre’s performance this year is hurting us more than we know. The pitcher’s aren’t afraid to pitch to him right now – it’s like he’s trying to help them get him out. I don’t know….. I’m scared to find out if they will help us more next year or not.
Ryan Howard is like Pedro Cerrano when he faces lefties, I swear.
The Ghost of Edgar Martinez is haunting the house.
Jason Michaels of Philadelphia is a possibility. High OBP (lifetime .383 in 718 AB), 4th outfielder, pinch hitter. occasional power. Nice player for a contender. Though as long as Hargrove is manager, it seems like a shame to waste a perfectly good role player.
12: Oh yes, and Ryan Howard.
Ryan Howard KILLS righties. Against lefties, um, not so much.
Against righties
AVG: .326
OBP: .395
SLG: .637
OPS: 1.032
Against lefties
AVG: .130
OBP: .167
SLG: .130
OPS: .297
(In 46 ABs against lefties he has 22 SO.)
All of that said, he has 16 HR in 236 ABs. Ibanez has 17 in 527 ABs. What are the comps for a 25 year old left hander who smashes righties but can’t hit lefties? Do these types of players eventually learn to hit/hold their own against lefties?
Thank you Adrian Beltre. Here’s your check for $60 million.
Howard would be a great fit at DH, pushing Raul into left. We could just play Morse (or maybe Bucky?) against lefty starters.
A lefty who can’t hit lefties? He’ll fit in PERFECTLY! Grover will have another guy he can bench against a lefty pitcher.
Where’s Kevin Youkilis? I hear he’s the Greek God of Walks
Bret Boone, Wiki Gonzalez, Dave Hansen, Yorvit Torrealba, Willie Bloomquist, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Greg Dobbs, Wilson Valdez, Pat Borders, Dan Wilson, Miguel Olivo, Scott Spiezio, and a handful of pitchers have all combined for 1610 sub-.300 OBP plate appearances.
See the guys in bold? They’re the only ones who could reasonably be back next year, along with the pitchers in interleague play but what can you do about that. MAYBE Hansen too. Many of the guys responsible for the team’s low OBP are gonzo. I’m not saying the guys we retain are great at drawing walks, but many are young and they thus have a better chance of developing the patience needed to draw walks, unlike many of the older guys on the list above.
In other words, our OBP blows this season, mainly because our hitters blew this season, and many of those guys are gone or will be gone. The OBP should improve next season as Bavasi continues to upgrade the club and our young guys continue to learn and develop.
In comparing the Tacoma Rainers stats against other top teams in the PCL (Salt Lake City, Sacremento) it does seem like Tacoma has a lower OBP than those other teams. Are there Mariners emphasizing the importance of getting on base within the farm system?
With respect to Jamal Strong, could he platoon in CF with Reed? Strong hits lefties well, Reed doesn’t. I was quite impressed by Strong last night.
In other news, Brett Boone plans a comeback:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2002482171_boone09.html
Kevin Youkilis is in Boston, and he’s staying there for a long time. If this team doesn’t aquire Ryan Howard, Brian Giles, or Hideki Matsui this offseason, they can forget contending for at least the next two years. David Delucci is also interesting, but that might just be the Texas factor.
How does a team go about having THAT low of an OBP? That seems almost impossible.
Well, the decline is because we went from having a number of patient hitters (Edgar, Olerud, Mac, Javier, Guillen- even Cameron drew his share of walks) to a bunch of impatient hitters.
The OBP should improve next season as Bavasi continues to upgrade the club and our young guys continue to learn and develop.
Dude. He dropped a bunch of long-term money on Adrian Beltre…who’s nobody’s idea of a patient hitter, and for a lot of the year has been hovering around .300 OBP. (He’s as almost as bad as Jimmy Presley was at chasing the low outside pitch that’s not even in the zone, though he’s a better hitter overall. Somebody PLEASE show him Ted Williams’s chart, and explain that’s he’s not freaking Vlad Guererro.)
Bavasi’s also had two years here, and it’s not getting better- it’s getting worse. Furthermore, look at Anaheim, his last team. Outside of Glaus, I wouldn’t say they went out of their way to encourage patient hitters. Bavasi strikes me as probably valuing athleticism a bit more than strike zone judgment.
I don’t expect this team to be very good at OBP next year if the lineup looks like this:
Ichiro
Reed
Ibanez
Sexson
Beltre
Lopez
Morse
Torrealba
Betancourt
They might (if enough people have good years, be around average for OBP. But that team reminds me of The Angels of Anaheim…if they are having a good year offensively, it’s because eveyone’s hitting for high average. Otherwise, the offense is gonna struggle.
There’s no excuse for not acquiring a middle of the lineup hitter this offseason. The need is there, the money is there, and we have a few tradable commodities. All it takes is the will and the brains to pull it off.
This all begs the question: How valuable is a .295-hitting Ichiro?
I was joking about Kevin Youkilis. That was just a playful reference to Moneyball.
With the Mariners, Bavasi also inherited a boatload of crap and old players loading the team down with bloated contracts. While he may eventually take the fall for the team’s failures, he has had his hands full with trying to clear out the deadwood while trying to bring in quality building blocks to build a new team around as the young guys make their way up from the minors. Beltre was not brought in to walk and get on base, he was brought in to man the hot corner and mash the living hell out of the baseball. He may learn some patience and be able to draw walks, or he may not, but he was not brought in for that purpose.
As for his Anaheim days, Bavasi is only responsible for acquiring talent, managers and coaches. He is not responsible for teaching them how to hit. That is the job of the coaches in the organization. Whether or not he brought in coaches knowing their track record with teaching guys to work the count and draw walks isn’t certain, but even though he does the hiring and firing there is only so much control he has over the team’s hitting.
And as for looking for athletes other hitters, keep this in mind: you can teach an athlete how to hit, but you can’t teach a hitter with a good eye how to be athletic.
I do agree that we should get ourselves a 3-4-5-level power bat in the offseason. I’m with the consensus that we’ve got to get a power hitting lefthanded bat and fortify this lineup.
At the same time, remember that many of the guys you’re seeing the Mariners run out there are rookies. Not everyone can come in and be Clint Barmes (without the Deer Meat accident, of course). Many have only come in over the last 12 months, so they’ve still got a learning curve to deal with, on top of trying to be productive major leaguers. While some may not pan out, some of these guys could learn how to hit, work the count and draw walks. Let’s not call Reed (497 ABs), Betancourt (130), and Lopez (322) a bunch of impatient free-swingers just yet.
(23)
Is Matsui available this off season? He does make them throw strikes. And comes through a lot when they do.
Matsui is a free agent this offseason, as are Brian Giles and Paul Konerko. Ryan Howard and Aubrey Huff will probably be available for trade.
Adam Dunn may also be available, but that’s probably just wishful thinking.
Yes, Beltre wasn’t signed to draw walks but he’s not mashing the hell out of the ball. And he’s not coming through when Sexson is being pitched around. Why doesn’t Sexson protect him instead of the other way around? And then back Sexson up with… Matsui or fill in the blank______ ( not Boone, not Ibanez). Boone was worse the more you moved him down the line up not better.
Bavasi is ultimately responsible for the ingredients, but of course he is still relatively new and did aquire more players than he has signed. However is he fixing the problem or not?
Now Huff is my kind of player. Let’s get that guy.
Re: Ichiro
I’d almost bat him 2nd next year if he keeps hitting like he is. He fits the 2 hole hitter profile great as he is right now, a bit of power, reasonable average, etc. The only question would be…who leads off? Reed? Probably not the best idea. Hargrove won’t pull a Jeremy Giambi and bat Ibanez 1st…
I’d almost consider looking for a speedy leadoff guy this offseason, maybe a high average-low power shortstop.
This all begs the question: How valuable is a .295-hitting Ichiro?
Did I write an article about that? I forget.
If Ichiro hits .300 with 20 dingers, he’s still one of the best leadoff men in the game. Combine that with Gold Glove defense and the pressure he still puts on defences and I’d say he’s still pretty good.
Of course you can’t forget that he’s the only Mariner who is still fun to watch.
Matsui’s contract is up after this season, and while I more than anyone else would love to see Godzilla in left and batting 3rd for us in 2006, I have heard from various outlets that he does not want to play anywhere but New York. I’m not gonna call it an impossibility, but I don’t think it’ll happen.
Year One of the Beltre Era has been a bust. We can only hope he lives up to his billing in subsequent seasons.
The problem with Sexson protecting Beltre is that a) Sexson has an inherent problem that leads to his numerous strikeouts: his 6’8″ frame creates a cavernous strike zone, and as stated, b) Beltre hasn’t consistently produced. Ibanez was consistently hitting .280-.300 and that’s why he got moved up… not that it helped, but having your #3 hitter hit .240-.260 and not draw walks doesn’t help either.
Bavasi, having finished a good deal of housecleaning, deserves at least one more offseason and full season to get the job done before firing him should be considered. He inherited a house of cards: not many teams collectively lose it and fall apart all at once like the Mariners did in 2003-2004.
I’m not sure if batting Ichiro no. 2 would help anything (Jamal Strong leading off not Reed- Reed not stealing 2nd like I thought he would and avg. not going well). However, what a perfect time to play around with the order a little (Hargrove?) and find out now. Existing line up not working so far (stay the course!) and season lost. Let’s work on some things in addition to evaluating talent. ?
strong
ichiro
beltre
sexson
ibanez
lopez
ojeda
reed
betancourt
Of course you can’t forget that he’s the only Mariner who is still fun to watch.
Excuse me? Did you miss the seventh inning last night? Lopez and Betancourt made back to back plays in spectacular fashion. They didn’t get an out on the first one, but it was still pretty enough to replay in slow mo several times; the second was as pretty a double-play as you’ll see. And that’s without even talking about the first out of the inning, Reed’s backwards flying catch at the wall. I’d pay money to watch Betancourt play the outfield… and I have. I’d pay money for a video compilation of Betancourt’s best defensive plays. And I think as Lopez and Betancourt play more together and get comfortable after their rookie year, I’ll probably be saying that about both of them this time next year.
Oh, and every fifth day there’s a starter who’s pretty entertaining for at least six innings, too.
I agree with you on Bavasi, deserves the next off season. Has done some good housecleaning (in some ways though who wouldn’t have done that). He also took a chance on Sexson that worked out, we don’t know yet on Beltre – my fingers are crossed, he saw the writing on the wall with Olivo and instead of being overly stubborn realized it was going to call for way too much patience to reach fruition and made the move that had to be done.The team also called up lots of players and gave them a chance to run with it. He’s had some bad moves too but I’m interested to see what he comes up with this off-season. I’m anxious to see what his moves regarding pitching are going to be like.
Again, regarding the conservative nature of Hargrove,
Who has a higher potential hitting no. 3? Beltre or Ibanez? Ibanez has only hit 17? HRs and has only 79? RBI’s hitting in the 3rd spot – that’s not great really. I understand at the first part of the year for the move, but Hargrove ain’t helping Beltre snap out of anything by hitting him no. 5 all year. Is that where we want him hitting next year too? Because it appears to be in stone.
The Mariners are terrible, and their prospects for improvement in 2006 appear grim…..when the guys do their forecast for next year you should include which players will or should be traded at the deadline when the Mariners are once again out of the division and wildcard race by Memorial Day, and are sellers once again in 2006.
On Bavasi deserving another season: I agree in general, but what if, right now, you could get a grade-A super GM. Like John Schuerholz of the Braves buys a house on Bainbridge and decides he’d like to work close to home?
Is that any different than constantly looking to make upgrades in the on-field team?
The problem for our GM is that the hole next year is exteremly hard to climb out of, in part due to circumstances out of his control. We’ll get into this in huge detail in the off-season, of course, but cranking this team up from where it is to competitive will be almost impossible to do in a year, and he probably only has a year before they find someone else (which could easily be much, much worse for the team).
Remember back in June when we realized that the Mariners were already out of the race? All us us were grumpier than a rental mule at the back of the pack.
Considering the optimism we feel now when watching the young players, it feels to me like two different seasons!
We were sinking then a lifeboat appeared and now I’m on it. To continue this metaphor, we don’t know when land will appear, but the dark shadow ahead could actually be land.
The Braves wouldn’t trade Schuerholz if they got 15 of our players in return. But if the trade were our 40-man roster for Schuerholz, Cox and Mazzone I would sign that deal in a flash.
“Circumstances beyond his control”
I can think of a few. But it wouldn’t be kind to Bavasi to air them.
My curiousity is piqued so I await your analysis.
“Circumstances beyond his controlâ€Â
I can think of a few. But it wouldn’t be kind to Bavasi to air them.
I meant only things like the pitching FA crop looking so awful, along with the particular balance of what’s out there to acquire taken against what he needs to get. But we’ll talk on this more later.
That pitching FA crop isn’t good.
I see that Chris Capuano and Noah Lowry are available…in my fantasly league. Oh well.
it will be interesting in the offseason to see just what does happen with other teams management– will Cashman really be elsewhere? Will George try to pry Leo away from Atlanta as all the NY tabs hope? Will DC go for a new GM? Will Torre finally have enough?
Tom said: “Matsui is a free agent this offseason, as are Brian Giles and Paul Konerko. Ryan Howard and Aubrey Huff will probably be available for trade. Adam Dunn may also be available, but that’s probably just wishful thinking.”
Matsui is just awaiting the off-season to sign the extension the Yankees have been holding since spring training. Adam Dunn was withdrawn as soon as someone claimed him off waivers, as was Huff. Huff be available in the off-season, depending on what happens with ownership down there. Ryan Howard is now the Phillies first baseman, with Thome hopefully back at the end of next spring from his elbow surgery. The Padres want to re-sign Giles with the money they saved on replacing Hernandez with Olivo, and though Marcus wants him to be a Brave, Brian hasn’t made any noises about leaving his hometown. There are some rumors that Konerko will either a white or red Sox by next year. I’m not saying never on any of these, but I bet it isn’t going to be that easy to just go get a slugger…
MSB – you know a lot. You must spend a lot of time following baseball.
We may have to trade for an SP.
Is it possible to grab Hochevar somehow? His negotiations are stalled with the Dodgers.
I have no life. I also read fast. It has been looking like trades rather than free agency for a while now. What can we get with what we have, and how would that once again gut the minor league system?
Man, we could use a little Rickey Henderson.
I believe every team he ever joined, including the 2000 M’s, improved in OBP beyond the increase attributable to his own performance. Other players on the team would improve in OBP after his addition. He was like a walking reminder to everyone “just don’t get out”.
If Bavasi wants more players like Garrett Anderson and Darrin Erstad, show him the door now.
What about roberto Petagine? Wasnt he posting Matsui level numbers @ Japan and right now is rotting @ Bostons AAA affiliate?
50:Petagine got called up a while ago. He’s .296/.387/.481 for Boston.
Rickey might be an outstanding coach if he ever stops playing. Everyone who played with him talks about how much he was willing to teach anyone interested in base stealing, and as a player he was still scraping out OBPs when his average on balls in play was Spiezio-esque. All pitch recognition with no bat speed, he still managed to draw enough walks to make him a decent bench option. And if you’ve got a player who won’t listen to coaches he doesn’t think have adequate credentials, holy mackeral, Rickey’s one of the greatest players ever.
That said, I don’t know if that would be his thing.
Hey, wait a second.
Corco! Aren’t you supposed to be working at the radio station? If you’re posting on USSM, you could be at the game!
(!!!)
what has shocked and appalled me about the mariners’ low on base percentage all year is that they have regularly trailed every national league team in obp, despite the fact that nl teams have to give away 2 or 3 plate appearances to pitchers every day. that is absolutely inexcusable, and everyone involved in personnel deployment and acquisition should be fired. hire a gm, manager and their staffs off of the street for $50,000 a year each and use the millions of dollars you save on players. who’s up for applying?
also, in response to the question of ichiro’s value this year, he is on pace to have his 2nd or 3rd most valuable season using warp3, (thanks heavily to a ridiculous defensive zone rating this year) and with a strong september he could even surpass his total of 9.1 from last year. he is currently at 7.8 wins, and i would guess that he will go back to his slap happy ways for the rest of the season in order to get to 200 hits, which can only help his chances. and may we finally put to rest the well circulated half-truth that ichiro could hit 30 home runs in a season if he wanted to? hes been trying to hit home runs all season, resulting in the lowest go/fo rate of his mlb career, which has handcuffed his obp. even if he gets to 20 this year, which is highly unlikely, 20 hr in 720 plate appearances is not impressive. if only someone could make him stop trying to lift the ball, 240 hits a year and a .420 obp would be his.
and to compare to the others, my lineup for next year (assuming there are no major additions) would look like this:
ichiro
reed
sexson
ibanez
beltre
lopez
morse or strong, whichever remains
whatever awful catcher they stroll out there
betancourt
obviously, additions are desperately needed. there are multiple options in the bad fielding AA/AAA first baseman on a national league farmclub market, guys who are blocked by big contracts in the big leagues and arent capable enough defensively to switch positions. make a trade and take away the glove and theres a brand new above average dh for the major league minumum. foremost on the list is howard, but there are others like joe dillon .360/.459/.631 (marlins) and randy ruiz .349/.405/.669 (phillies again).
There’s also the fact that the division isn’t exactly chopped liver. Arguably, Texas is further along the “plug in good young players” path than we are (we are about where Texas was pre-2004), and it’s bought them about a .500 record the last two years.
However…
The problem for our GM is that the hole next year is exteremly hard to climb out of, in part due to circumstances out of his control.
Everyone has circumstances beyond their control, from Billy Beane on down. It’s how you deal with them that tells us how good you are.
I think hitting Ichiro second is a really bad idea. His career record hitting with men on first is not good. Observation suggests that he hits into a great many fielder’s choices that might have been singles with no one on.
This all begs the question:
USS Mariner has been known to correct poor spelling and grammar and such, and I’d like to note that this particular one drives me nuts. “Beg the question” does not mean to urgently raise a question, or anything like that; it means to reason circularly, to assume the answer in the reasoning for the answer.
> #54: what has shocked and appalled me about the mariners’ low on base percentage all year is that they have regularly trailed every national league team in obp, despite the fact that nl teams have to give away 2 or 3 plate appearances to pitchers every day.
Sac bunts do not count against your OBP, even though sac flies do. It’s a funny quirk in the scoring rules, but there’s a good part of your explanation for how NL teams beat the M’s OBP. (The rest of the explanation, of course, is that most of the M’s hitters are shockingly and appallingly bad at getting on base.)
Why don’t we get guys with great batting eyes? Sorry, I forgot but there is some statistical name for it and it’s not a common one but I’m sure you guys know it. Choo and I think Cabrerra are considered to have the best eyes in the M’s farm system. Especially, look at Choo’s stats during his long slump. He was still getting a lot of walks and was keeping his OBP high relative to his low BA.
I mean look at the box score for the game tonight and you’ll see he (Choo) went 1 for 3 but had 3 walks. 3 walks in a must win game for the Rainiers! He’s a cool guy under pressure it seems.
My bad. Choo got two IBB but hey they respect his bat. Anyway, HE is good at getting walks. I think he is the best #2 hitter in the M’s farm system and would be for the team. He is currently a lead off hitter for Tacoma but for now Ichiro is best at 1.
Everyone has circumstances beyond their control, from Billy Beane on down. It’s how you deal with them that tells us how good you are.
True. Beane’s first year as GM was 1997 if memory serves. How did Oakland do? 65-97, last in the AL West. In 1998, his second year? 74-88, last in the AL West. It wasn’t until 1999 that they climbed out of the basement (and even then they were just second to the Rangers). The point is even wunderkinds can’t turn a franchise around in a year or two. Everybody makes mistakes (ask Beane about his closer last year, for instance). Every decision is a calculated risk. Which means you have to get as much information as you can, to make that calculation as accurately as possible. Which Bavasi seems to be doing with his commitment to scouting. Given the M’s stupid history with pitching injuries, you pretty much have to grab as much young pitching as you can and hope some of it survives. Which is what it appears Bavasi is doing. (I’d like to see the organization as a whole make some changes there, but that’s out of his hands). On the offensive side, he’s gone out and got big bats in the FA market and cut the guys who weren’t pulling their weight (a bit late perhaps, but at least they’re gone). And after that it’s a bit of crapshoot. People get hurt. Guys have slumps. Things don’t work out. I don’t think anyone expected the M’s offense to be this bad. On paper, at the start of the season, it shouldn’t have been.
I’m not saying there aren’t better GMs out there, but there’s no way to be sure the M’s would get one of them if they fired him. I’d certainly fire Hargrove first. Given the priorities of the ownership group (I can’t imagine what Lou thinks he could have done back in the 90s with the salary the Mariners were throwing around in the offseason) I think Bavasi is doing a decent job. Not great, but good enough to warrant another offseason and another full year. You want to see progress. You want to see a team heading in the right direction. You want young guys with potential and a few vets who pull their weight. I’m willing to wait another year for that.
Of course, if the entire Braves front office and coaching staff becomes available….
in response to #61-you must be forgetting about spiezio, aurilia, reese, getting nothing (almost literally) for guillen because he signed aurilia, the ridiculous catcher situation (the system’s top 5 major league ready catchers project to be backups at best, and they are still at least 1-2 years away from clement), getting virtually nothing for randy winn when he was one of the top players on the trade market because of center field deficiencies among contenders), the eddie guardado contract (closers, especially on a losing team, are not worth $3.5-$5 million a year, no matter how well they pitch. there are literally 3 guys in the system who could step in and close for close to the league minimum- sherrill, putz, mateo, and lets not forget soriano when he is healthy-and there are always cheaper options available outside of the system if these players were not ready at the time), as long as were talking about george sherrill, resigning ron villone rather than just putting sherrill on the roster in his place, and not getting joe dillon from the marlins at the deadline. i could go on, but what this all adds up to is wasteful management with no sense of responsibility to the fan base or the owners. the guy throws money around like its nothing, banking on getting lucky with signings rather than making the decisions that will most likely positively affect the team. and the reason he can behave this way is that his job isnt really in jeopardy- his father was a gm, he’s a gm, these guys get recycled from team to team with absolutely no accountability whatsoever.
on the plus side of his ledger, there is but one thing- the freddy garcia trade, which does not begin to offset the negatives he has accumulated. (as a stretch, you could throw betancourt in there as well, but he is and probably always will be a gaping hole offensively- .323 obp in AAA- at a position that has become more of an offensive position than at any time in history, especially in the american league-young, jeter, tejada, crosby, and that is a positional disadvantage that this team doesnt overcome anywhere else on the field. so my enthusiasm for him is not high.)
62: I agree with most of what you say, but if Jesse Foppert can recover something of his old form, and there is at least a 50-50 chance he will, the Randy Winn deal will be a good one.
Also, having Guardado for the amount we pay him is a bargain. Just because someone is a good setup man doesn’t mean he’ll be a good closer. Even in his heyday, Jeff Nelson couldn’t hack it as a closer, and Oakland’s experiment with Arthur Rhodes was a disaster. It takes more than talent to be a good closer.
Guardado was a setup guy before he was a closer. So were Mike Jackson, Francisco Rodriguez, Bob Wickman, BJ Ryan, and Francisco Cordero. Dennis Eckersley, Jason Isringhausen, Dustin Hermanson, Danny Baez, Joe Nathan, and Mariano Rivera were starters.
My point is that closers are made, not born; very few guys come up as closers and remain as such their entire careers.
Mariano was also Wetteland’s setup man during a certain Best. Season. Ever.
Arthur Rhodes also has a career ERA near 4, and even his GOOD years has been as likely as not to have an ERA in the 4′s.
A 4 ERA = you’re as likely as not to blow a one inning, one-run save. By definition, that’s not a good closer.