Pocket Lint
We’ve really laid off Bob Finnigan this year. We used to hammer him pretty regularly, but the decision was made to mostly ignore him and keep the blog focused on actual analysis, rather than reminding everyone how abysmal the guy was at his job.
Today, he’s decided to re-incarnate last year’s “M’s Caught in Numbers Crunch” article, where he claimed the team had about $13 million to spend on free agents (they spent about $24 million, in reality), and today has posted “No Easy Solution to M’s Problems”. Despite the fact that he’s run this bad-math-expectations-lowering pile of crap article every year since the beginning of time, he still feels the need to remind us all that he lacks basic logical skills, and attempts to share his depressing view of the world with his readers. Fortunately for us, his ramblings aren’t based in reality, so we don’t have to take his down-in-the-mouth approach to the offseason.
But man, how this thing gets published every year is beyond me. What a lousy paper the Times is. They should be embarrassed to put this thing in print.
So that would leave Millwood, the American League earned-run average champ, Kenny Rogers, or Jeff Suppan, a former American Leaguer, as the best choices.
When the right answer to your question is Kenny Rogers or Jeff Suppan, you’re asking the wrong question.
Suppan, who won 16 games for St. Louis, has AL experience. The problem is that his prior AL experience was nowhere near as successful as he has been with the St. Louis Cardinals. But then he was pitching for Kansas City…
So, we should pursue Suppan because he was once horrible in the American League?
Indications are that the payroll will be down some from the $96 million/$98 million, to $90 million/$92 million.
Of course, every real analysis of Mariner payroll puts the ’05 mark somewhere around $86-$89 million, nowhere near Finnigan’s numbers. But he’s the king of making up payroll, so this is nothing new.
This money still is not Cracker Jack, but it awaits the market to see how much it will bring. Based on existing contracts, Seattle has already used up about $49.5 million (all figures rounded off) of that money.
For that they get Sexson, Beltre, Ichiro, Joel Pineiro, Raul Ibanez, Miguel Ojeda and Eddie Guardado. (The club is unlikely to pick up Guardado’s option at $6.5 million, and he can opt out or come back at $4.25 million.)
About $50 million for that group is actually pretty accurate. Amazingly.
Add in buyouts of club options that might not be exercised  Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Pokey Reese, Wiki Gonzalez, Jeff Nelson and Spiezio  and you get another $4.5 million.
This is poor wording; Spiezio’s buyout is only $250,000, but his ’06 salary is $3.25. If that comes off the ’06 books (it probably will), then this number is accurate. If the M’s eat it on the ’05 payroll, this number goes way down.
Add in prorated signing bonuses (including that of departed Ron Villone) of about $6 million, and about $1 million still due on Jeff Cirillo, and you’ve got another $7 million.
And now we get into classic Finnigan. Villone’s signing bonus was $500,000. Prorating that over the two years of his contract, we get $250,000. Big whoop-de-doo. And here Finnigan uses prorated signing bonuses, assumed for every player on the roster who got one, but earlier in the article used actual 2006 payout to add up the salaries for the guys currently under contract. Consistency, Bob. Either use actual payout or annual average value. You don’t get to combine the two to make your bottom line as high as possible.
Add in other contracts  Hernandez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez, Greg Dobbs, Rene Rivera, Jeremy Reed, Bobby Madritsch, Rafael Soriano, J.J. Putz, George Sherrill, Mike Morse (and possibly Jeff Harris, Matt Thornton, Scott Atchison, Chris Snelling, Jamal Strong, Ramon Santiago) and you could reach another $4.5 million.
That’s 17 players, Bob. 17! If you think the M’s are going to give major league contracts to all those guys, you’re freaking insane. Chalk this group up to about $3 million.
Then there are arbitration eligibles  Gil Meche, Willie Bloomquist, Julio Mateo, Yorvit Torrealba, Ryan Franklin  and put down another $10 million, give or take.
Now the real fun begins. No comment on this for now. But you should note that, at the moment, Finnigan has the M’s carrying a 29 man roster.
The budget is so tight, it will almost certainly turn Franklin and Torrealba and other arbitration eligibles into non-tendered players, although it is tough to see Meche in this category. If they are not traded and don’t sign a deal by the Dec. 20 deadline, they might not be offered a contract, and will become free agents.
So, the arbitration group knocks $10 million off the payroll… but they’re likely to be non-tendered. Wait, what? Did Bob even bother to read these two paragraphs. And who are these “other arbitration eligibles”? He already said Franklin and Torrealba would be, and Meche wouldn’t be (he’s wrong about the last two), so that leaves Bloomquist and Mateo. Anyone here really expect either of those to be non-tendered? Does anyone see any situation, ever, where that would happen?
In reality, Franklin is a certain non-tender, Meche is a very likely non-tender (or trade for peanuts), and Torrealba, Bloomquist, and Mateo will combine for about $3 million in salaries for next year. So you can immediately lump $7 million off of Finnigan’s bottom line, despite the fact that he wants you to believe that the M’s are broke.
Finnigan wants you to believe that the M’s have about $10 million to spend. In reality, they have about $25 million. Last year, he threw out a $13 million figure and wrote several articles ridiculing everyone who expected big changes. When the M’s ended up signing Beltre, Sexson, Reese, Villone, Campillo, Betancourt, Sele, and Nelson, blowing Finnigan’s numbers out of the water, we never saw any kind of retraction. Or even an article explaining how the M’s fit these contracts into his little $13 million window.
Now, a year later, we get the same thing. Apparently he hopes that everyone who reads today’s piece forgets the hatchet job he did last year and gives him a mulligan.
Sorry Bob, but you don’t get any more chances. You’ve earned the nickname Pocket Lint.
Comments
149 Responses to “Pocket Lint”
Yean, I figured about $25 million as well, and chuckled at Bob’s math when I saw the article.
I’m curious if the M’s budget will stay about the same as this years (86-89 million), go back up to the old mark (96?-98? million) since they claimed early on to be saving incase of the need of a mid-season pickup, fall somewhere in the middle of those numbers, or decrease slightly with the expected drop in attendance.
Honestly though no one probably knows unless they were in the big org. meetings last week.
A. We have a top-of-the-rotation arm, his name is Felix.
B. I think the “switching leagues” thing is way over-hyped, and if anything it would probably help a pitcher, as the batters would be less familar with his stuff.
I was going to go through and pick out more garbage, but why? I’d have to quote the whole article paragraph by paragraph. I can make up stories too, where do I apply?
Howard Lincoln is a happy man today. First the Finnigan article to lower expectations, and then the Thiel interview where Howard states that fans are asking him to simply field a competitive team of nice guys. Oh to be a baseball owner in this town.
Dave-Last year even before the Forbes article I advocated the Mariners payroll be in the 120 million range (not spend just to spend but real talent). If I recall correctly you replied the Mariners could not spend that much on ML roster and finance the the projects they hope to accomplish throughout the minor league system. What is a payroll number you feel is a reasonable expectation for fans to expect for 2006?
Could you give abit of information on Brian Contreas Centerfielder Switch hitter from Puerto Rico the Ms drafted?
Thankyou
Dave, thanks for the intelligent analysis/corrections. Do you ever send this complaint to the Times editors? We can agree to disagree on Torrealba and Meche, but the 32 man roster with 3 catchers and 3 backup outfielders (Morse, Strong, Snelling) is flat out sloppy. And the “these guys cost $10M” so they’ll be non-tendered, but still counting them in the total is .
As to the actual content, will Bloomquist be resigned/offered arbitration because the Mariners are enamoured of him, or because he’s actually worth what he’ll be paid. And is Torrealba our starting catcher, backed up by Ojeda?
Thanks!
Could you give abit of information on Brian Contreas Centerfielder Switch hitter from Puerto Rico the Ms drafted?
I don’t know anything about his skills, but according to Baseball America’s draft database he hasn’t signed so far.
The guys who could be on the Tacoma shutle all year would be offered split contracts, I would think. So while we can’t have a 29-35man MLB roster, it’s probable that we’ll have a few of this group on the 25-man all year at something close to the MLB minimum.
I’m the most curious about what JoeJessica and Willie are likely to get paid, and is Yorvit arb-eligible or not?
Split contracts generally pay $50,000-$70,000 while in the minors, a far cry from the major league minimum of $316,000.
Finnegan has penciled in Rene Rivera as the starting catcher next year.
Wow.
#10–yeah, ’cause a veteran catcher at approx. $715,000 would be waaaaay too expensive for the M’s.
If the M’s start next year with JoeJessica behind the dish, he’ll be our best starting catcher since… 2001? That’d be pretty sweet.
My favorite part? When Finnigan writes how we will probably go hard after bringing back Ron Villone from Florida.
Yeah. That’ll happen.
Ron Villone with the Marlins:
4.2 BB/G, 10.2 K/G. .7 HR/G, 3.63 Fielding Independant ERA
Ron Villone with the Mariners:
4.9 BB/G, 8.8 K/G, .4 HR/G, 3.76 Fielding Independant ERA
Villone pitched better with the Marlins than he did with the M’s. If the Marlins want to give him back to us because he “flopped” with them, I’d take him.
How about how Toronto is shopping Vernon Wells?
Why would they do that? He’s their best player, and they’re looking to contend next year.
Most depressing 2005 statistic: 5-7. That’s the record the M’s put up in 12 games started by their best pitcher. I don’t question the need to sign another front-line starter, but that money is wasted unless they leverage it with some offensive improvement. I would be disappointed if they blew $20 million on two starters.
#16: When people post stuff like that do they assume that all the rookies who spent time in the MLB this past year gaining valuable experience will actual perform worse next season than they did this year?
I guess I just don’t understand people’s expectation when they say stuff like that. I expect rookies with solid minor league resumes to actually improve as they gain more experience, not digress. Thus if the M’s added nobody this winter to their offense one would expect at least some improvement from the rookies. Add one decent left handed bat plus expected improvement from the rookies and the M’s just might end up with a respectable offense next season.
That said, I’d be a little worried about the M’s spending $20MM this winter on starting pitchers, because I’m not sure I’m convinced there are two starting pitchers out there this winter who justify that kind of expenditures….
I think something in the $15-$18 million range should suffice.
)
The Finnigan article was incredibly awful, but there’s a chart in the usually reliable TNT today that must have had compiled by an intern. It takes the season-ending 40 man roster and says “how they did, where they’re headed”. It’s credited to The News Tribune at the top of the article but at the bottom of the piece it says “Corey Brock, The News Tribune. Corey is better than this so I have to assume he let an intern write it and didn’t proof it… it’s got a bunch of mistakes.
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/5228264p-4749499c.html
1) Says that Julio Mateo is a free agent. He’s not, but is arbitration eligible for the first time.
2) Says that Miguel Ojeda was acquired from the Giants in the Randy Winn deal when he actually came over in the Olivo deal with the Padres.
3) Also says that Ojeda “won’t be back in 2006″ This doesn’t take into account that Ojeda has a guaranteed major league contract for ’06. Given the contract, he’s not likely to be discarded before spring training and is pretty likely to be in Seattle or Tacoma in ’06.
4) Says that Justin Leone will be a free agent. He probably will be, but not until he’s removed from the 40 man roster. If the M’s wanted to keep him, they could, just by leaving him on the 40 man.
5) Finally, it says that Chris Snelling “should be healthy for spring training”. Considering he didn’t have surgery ’til last week I find that a little hard to believe…
I don’t question the need to sign another front-line starter, but that money is wasted unless they leverage it with some offensive improvement.
I’d like to introduce you to:
Jeremy Reed
Mike Morse
Adrian Beltre
Jose Lopez
Yuniesky Betancourt
As a group. I will gladly bet money they will improve their collective performance in 2006 from 2005. For the first time in what seems like aeons, we actually HAVE young players we can say that about.
(Note that I qualified that by “as a group”. I think it likely some will improve, some will decline, but as a group they’ll improve overall. The guy I think is likeliest to decline has the initials “Mike Morse”.
That’s not to say we shouldn’t use the opportunity to sign a LH bat (which, you’ll note, Bavasi has said he wants to do), but there’s simply no way 2B and C are the black hole in 2006 they were in 2005, unless we get downright stupid and play Willie Hustle at 2B for 150 games, and Rivera for 130 at C- and even then I don’t think Rivera could be as bad as Wilson/Borders/Olivo were.
http://tinyurl.com/dz89u (MLB 2B by OPS)
http://tinyurl.com/cjb4w (MLB C by OPS)
Torrealba/Ojeda/Rivera should at least be PASSABLE at C, if not a team strength…
What do you guys think of the option of picking up BK Kim? He pitched pretty good in Colorado last year, should come cheap and benefit from being on the west coast away from the media frenzy.
Personally, I’d love to see him here. I think he’d be a good starter, and in a pinch an excellent middle/long reliever. I highly doubt the Mariners will even consider him, but damn I think he’d help.
I wonder if Bavasi sits at his desk, reads Finnigan’s column and just laughs and laughs….
I’m amazed at how high Villone’s ERA is given his improved peripherals. That’s got to be the worst defensive support ever, but the Marlins can’t have that bad of a defense, can they? Wouldn’t Dontrelle and Beckett have ERA’s in the 6′s if so? Is it a mystery as to why Villone had such lacking defensive support or is there something I’m missing?
Kim’s Fielding Independent ERA was actually better at Coors Field but terrible on the road. He also walks a lot of guys. I’m not sure about his capabilities.
About Finnegan…
Before I started checking in with USSM, about a year ago, I had no idea he was this bad. It’s not like I sought out Finnie’s opinions or analysis about the Mariners, but I was fairly neutral toward him compared to someone like Steve Kelley. I guess I was of the mind that he’s only a beat writer so how important is his contribution to the Mariner media. Of course, now my opinions of him have changed.
But I’m wondering if most fans aren’t equally ignorant of how bad he is, as I was.
I think USSM does a good job at critiquing some of the media and broadcast personalities. Not that I agree with all of the critiques. I actually like Rick Rizz (cringe), but many of the opinions here have been very informative for me.
frozenroper, I’m not assuming our rookies will perform worse, and ec, thanks for the intro but I’m familiar with those guys. In fact, I AM assuming that, on average, these hitters will do better in 2006. Well enough, for two individuals, to step into the breach at #2 and #6? Maybe. Well enough, as a group, to offset any possible age decline at #1, #3, and #4? Maybe. Well enough, over a season, to turn a sub-3-ERA starter into a 20-game winner? Maybe.
If I’m Bill Bavasi, am I going to bet my career on this assumption? I don’t think so. Once I’ve signed the best starter I can, subsequent moves all depend on value, with neither pitching nor offense taking any priority. And there’s a good possibility that more value will be available on offense.
That’s not a bad approach… sign a top of the order starter and then spend the rest of the budget on best value… offense, defense, or pitching.
Speaking of offense, here’s another name to consider.. Frank Thomas. He does not get along with Ozzie Guillen and I think his career in Chicago is over. It might be over altogether, but if he feels he still has another good year or two, I would take him despite his right-handedness. The guy’s HR/AB ratio was incredible for his brief time playing this year. Since he’s a spray hitter, I assume he would fit at Safeco ala Boone or Edgar.
It seems to me, considering the position that our organization is in, to be totally ridiculous to pursue a top-tier starting pitcher in the free agent market. I say, let the larger-market teams with dried-up farm systems (like Boston or Baltimore or Los Angeles) chase after them, and make a trade for such a pitcher. As much as the M’s need a veteran #2 start to compliment King Felix, throwing out $30-40 millions contracts at the likes of A.J. Burnett or Kevin Millwood would probably blow up in our face. I’m going to throw some names out at random, and I’m sure most of them will be insane:
Oliver Perez…..Odalis Perez…..Javier Vasquez…..Matt Morris…..Mark Burhle…..Jon Lieber…..Josh Burkett…..Mike Mussina…..Roy Halladay…..
Jeez, some of those names are kinda nuts, huh? I’m just saying — if any of them are actually available — it would probably be more beneficial to us to pursue them, than to attempt to sign Burnett or Millwood. Probably. I say, first spend part of that +/- 25 millions on a power bat (when was last time we developed one of those?), then get an arm or two. I would just like to have an idea what our options are.
In a trade, what you’d like to find is someone who would like to dump some salary. That way, the M’s could get a quality pitcher without having to give up a lot of their top prospects.
Decline at #1, #3 and #4? I think it is much more likely that the M’s get more production at those positions, not less.
Ichiro is, in my opinion, likely to do better next year.
Beltre is, I think, likely to do better next year.
Sexson who knows, he had a good year but not a great year given his low BA.
When you say #3 were you referring to Ibanez? He might show some age-related decline but as a group I would expect those 4 to be at least as productive as this year.
Given all that, I expect the offense to improve if you add no one. Adding a good LH bat (probably in LF, maybe in RF) should make them significantly better.
Yes, I meant Ibañez, 89 games at #3 at age 33, not Beltre, 73 games at #3 at age 26.
We’ll have to see about Ichiro, Ibañez and Sexson. Again, if I’m Bavasi I don’t rely on their improvement to fix the offensive deficiency.
The only thing I want out of Bob “Pocket Lint” Finnigan is a column that is typed in his infamous shorthand. It’d be somewhat amusing to read that sort of inane blather in The Seattle Times.
Anyhow, for what it’s worth, Finnigan’s ineptitude is more tolerable, due to the fact that it is so awful, than the fluff produced by both Steve Kelley and Jim “The Go 2 Guy” Moore.
On a side note, I really hate having $25 million to spend with this year’s free agent crop as opposed to what was available for the last couple years.
#26:
The FA market and the trade market are intertwined. As prices of pitchers increase on the FA market, the value of pitchers who are under contract rises accordingly.
The only difference is that instead of paying more money, you just pay more in talent (or accept more salary back in a trade or send more salary with guys you are trading).
Teams working the trade market for pitching don’t wind up paying less; they just pay in different currency.
OPS is a terrible tool to evaluate Mariners hitting in relation to the league.
Our 2B were actually not a black hole compared to the league; Bret Boone had a VORP of 5, which ain’t Rogers Hornsby but it’s “only” 34th out of 84 total 2B. Bloomer’s at 3.2, 44th. Lopez was positive too. Our 2B were a bit below average but above replacement. I expect Lopez to be at about that same level. Higher would sure be nice, as would some minimal level of fielding ability.
Our catchers were horrible, with the exception of a very tiny sample of greatness from Rivera (7.8 VORP in 50 PA). Torrealba is the very definition of “replacement level” — his VORP was 0.2 for us. Our output at C should be better than last year, though, simply by virtue of replacing the worst player in the league, Olivo, with replacement level.
Beltre has to be better; 16 VORP is terrible at 3B from someone at his salary level. Betancourt is unlikely to ever hit much above replacement, though obviously his glove helps — but he’s not a star. We have nobody in left next year, unless you put Ibanez there, in which case we have nobody at DH. Reed should be — has to be — better, or else. He’s below average as it is.
Overall, we can pick up about one “hitter” worth by simply not playing Valdez and Olivo, and gaining some improvements from young players like Beltre and Reed. If we sign another hitter for LF or DH, we have added some runs, sure. But realize that we’re a hundred runs away from being a decent offensive team; adding two Sexsons gets us there, but barely. Do you see two Sexsons on the horizon? And for every “well, it’s only natural that this guy and this guy will improve”, I must point out that this is STILL an old team despite some young guys. There are going to be some declines as well.
As for pitching, Felix is NOT a “top of the rotation” arm, because he’s only 20 next year, and the organization has committed to holding him to 200 (age*10) innings. If your top starter has 200 innings, you have absolutely no chance of finishing out of last place. We need to gain even more runs on defense than we do on offense; given our home park and generally outstanding glove efficiency our starting pitching SUCKS HORRIBLY. Personally I doubt if adding Millwood AND Burnett gets us there, which isn’t going to happen unless $50 million falls out of the sky.
Howard Lincoln knows his audience. He said in the paper today that he meets regularly with groups of season-ticket holders, and they all tell him the same thing: we love the players you have. Get more like them. Don’t spend money on headcases (or “Attilas” as he calls them). We will continue to take our kids to the games and keep the franchise incredibly profitable no matter how badly we suck on the field.
Lincoln has no incentive to make any effort to improve the team. Safeco has turned the Mariners into the Cubs. We’re going to bounce back and forth from 69 to 84 wins every year for the rest of eternity.
Re: 19
Man, those are awful mistakes in that 40-man rundown. The Ojeda part is terrible. Two MAJOR errors.
Snelling might be ready to walk straight in spring training, maybe swing a bat, but playing by February is out of the question.
I also woud not assume that Bubela is in Tacoma in 06, or that Strong is gone. Both play center field, if you had to choose, who are you taking?
The Leone thing I don’t see the problem. I don’t think the author was saying Leone IS a free agent, he/she is simply saying he WILL be.
In his age 26, 27, and 28 seasons in Milwaukee, Sexson hit a park-adjusted .271, .280, and .272 respectively.
In 2005 (his age 30 season), Sexson hit a park-adjusted .272. I think that’s pretty much the best batting average we could have expected. As he ages, that will probably go down. There’s no reason to expect Richie to become a better hitter for average.
Oh, and I like the idea of grabbing Frank Thomas to DH.
Rusty said:”About Finnegan…Before I started checking in with USSM, about a year ago, I had no idea he was this bad. It’s not like I sought out Finnie’s opinions or analysis about the Mariners, but I was fairly neutral toward him compared to someone like Steve Kelley. I guess I was of the mind that he’s only a beat writer so how important is his contribution to the Mariner media.”
and, just going by the bylines, Finnegan was not even really a ‘beat writer’ this season — he missed a lot of road trips this year.
Saul said: “On a side note, I really hate having $25 million to spend with this year’s free agent crop as opposed to what was available for the last couple years. “
FWIW, they had the same amount to spend last year, and spent it…
Thanks guys for posting this.
I would have read this “stuff” and be totally bummed right now, if it wasn’t for you folks.
Thank you for this site.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if you look at your roster and decide that Raul ’4th outfielder’ Ibanez is your man in the 3 spot, just tell the team pilot to crash the team plane into the Red Sox team plane and do the world two favors at the same time.
re: 19/34 I actually sort of agree with TNT’s prediction on Jamal Strong/Jaime Bubela.
I think the expectation for Strong and Bubela is that both will be taken off the 40 man roster shortly because a) the organization doesn’t value either very much and b) they need 40 man spots to protect more valued prospects.
If they outright Strong I believe he’d be a six-year free agent (or could be claimed on waivers) and I’m sure he’s prefer to sign with another organization where he might get a shot be able to play in the majors, even in a reserve role. I’m not 100% sure if Strong would be a six-year free agent. Jason? On the other hand, Bubela certainly clears waivers and could be back in Tacoma…
Yeah, I know OPS isn’t perfect due to park effects- but this was the closest way to show that we had some real sucky performances by position.
I must point out that this is STILL an old team despite some young guys.
Whaaaa?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/roster?team=sea
Average age = 28.4
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rosters
Right in the middle of the league, guys. Note that average includes a number of oldsters who won’t be coming back.
We’ve got a grand total of THREE regulars over 30 right now: Ichiro, Sexson and Ibanez. Compare and contrast with the 2004 team coming out of spring training with Olerud. Boone, Edgar, Wilson, Aurilia, Spiezio, Winn, Ibanez, Ichiro- NONE OF WHOM were under 30.
Lincoln has no incentive to make any effort to improve the team. Safeco has turned the Mariners into the Cubs. We’re going to bounce back and forth from 69 to 84 wins every year for the rest of eternity.
You must not have noticed the crowds at Safeco going hovering around and crashing through 20K the last week of the season. Welcome to the future if this team sucks on a going-forward basis. We might stabilize where Baltimore and Texas are (2.5-2.6 million, considering they are also doing something very similar to the Cubs (bouncing around being bad)- but considering the Mariners drew 3.5 million+ in 2001-2002, I’d say a million fannies in the seats and the revenue they represent is a pretty good reason to want to do well- plus remember, there’s TV revenues from the local games, which aren’t as good when a team sucks.
Steve Thornton said:”Howard Lincoln knows his audience. He said in the paper today that he meets regularly with groups of season-ticket holders, and they all tell him the same thing: we love the players you have. Get more like them. Don’t spend money on headcases (or “Attilas†as he calls them). We will continue to take our kids to the games and keep the franchise incredibly profitable no matter how badly we suck on the field.”
sigh. I hate that I seem to keep sticking up for Howard Lincoln. He hasn’t just said the fans say they want nice players and a nice stadium and they’ll keep coming. Even Thiel in his column today quoted Lincoln as saying he’s been told by the fans “We want you to get it turned around, we want to see wins”.
When asked on KOMO if they believe the fans will come no matter what Lincoln said “We don’t believe that for a second … that doesn’t mean that we assume that fans are going to come regardless of the product, we have to put a good product on the field, and we have to keep doing the things that do bring our fans to Safeco Field and that is to provide 1st class customer service, a secure environment, a wonderful place to play baseball, great entertainment. I think we’ve executed on that second one, now we’ve got to execute on that first objective. But make no mistake about it, the number one objective of this ownership, and this franchise, is to bring championship play back here to Safeco Field, and eventually get this team to the World Series.”
He actually IS saying the right things — what we need is to see if the staff he has assembled can carry it out.
(and btw, does Thiel really think that if there’d been any chance Pedro would have signed here, they wouldn’t have looked into it? Lincoln’s comment on the general subject was “It’s quite possible that you could bring in someone close to an Attila and, in the environment we have here, would become a part of it” — and in fact, they did just that with Rickey Henderson, signing him despite all the rumblings that preceeded him…. )
38. How about doing the world THREE favors, and planning the crash to occur over Yankee Stadium, during afternoon BP. My opinion is, if the Red Sox go, they better take those f___ing bombers with them.
Remember, this ownership places profitability above all else. They realize that fielding a last-place team isn’t good business, but at the same time, most revenue-generating Mariner fans simply aren’t demanding a championship-calibur team. They want ‘competitiveness’, more Edgar promos & Little League nights, and nice guys who contribute to the community.
From a profit perspective, the sweet spot for the M’s is to field a team that’s mathematically in the hunt for a Wild Card for most of the summer, while they continue to market Safeco field and our nice players. If the team ever gets to a point where we are 1 impact bat or 1 impact pitcher away from serious contention, it will be the same story as 2002 & 2003. So get ready for years of 75-84 win seasons, and more local boys and ex-Mariners from 2001.
Rickey’s a great guy. He’s probably crazy, but not in a bad way.
Age: next year the over 30s will include whichever of these guys comes back: Atchison, Franklin, Guardado, Harris, Hasegawa, Madritsch, Moyer, Nelson, Thornton, Ojeda, Hansen, Ibanez, Sexson, Ichiro. The genuinely young guys are Felix, Rivera, Betancourt, Lopez, Morse, and Reed. The names I’m hearing for free agent signings — Millwood 31, Burnett 29, Dmitri Young 32, Brian Giles 35, Frank Thomas 38, Kevin Brown 41! — are not young; free agents never are.
Attendance: Big surprise that attendance drops off at the end of a disappointing year. School and football have started. A few weeks ago they were drawing great, and sucking just as bad. They outdrew their projection — which was obviously based on having a GOOD team — by more than ten percent. The M’s could be very, very profitable forever playing just as bad as they have been.
Lincoln: I think he’s a lying scumbag. He HAS to say those things. He can hardly tell Art Thiel “well, yeah, we’re rolling in it, despite what we print in our public profit-loss statements, and we’ve proven that nobody in this town can even tell if we’re winning or not, so who cares?” But actions speak louder than words. It is obvious that he and most M’s fans will always prefer the Dan Wilsons of this world to guys who can actually play baseball. Lincoln:
“This is not Boston, Philadelphia or New York — this is Seattle and the Northwest. We’re marketing a particular brand of baseball at our facility where we want good players but also good citizens involved in the community. It’s not Yankee Stadium. We’re doing it deliberately, it resonates with fans, and they keep coming.”
What he really means is “we’re marketing crappy baseball because we believe our fanbase can’t tell the difference”.
Of course, the fanbase believes that the team would actually be better if Wilson and Boone were still around. Many of them still boo A-Rod, who is only the best player to ever take the field at Safeco in any uniform. But Lincoln shouldn’t be listening to them.
Attila … they did just that with Rickey Henderson, signing him despite all the rumblings that preceeded him
Uh, they picked up Rickey Henderson for the balance of a single season after the Mets had flushed him, with the Mets paying the vast majority of his paycheck. If he or his attitude didn’t work out, it would have cost them next to nothing to slap him on the back and say farewell.
To say they “signed” Ricky would be like saying the Twins signed Bret Boone.
The best (or worst) quote from the Lincoln interview:
“All you have to do is walk around … and talk to people in the stands. It’s apparent there are fun things to do besides baseball. Sometimes you can sit with a group of 20 or so, and there’ll be one guy with his arms crossed saying, ‘Why don’t they do this or that,’ and the rest are there for a variety of other reasons.”
So, I guess he considers 5% of the paying fan base to actually care about baseball. The sad thing is, he may be correct.
I probably tend to be more optimistic in my views of the Mariners future than others. I like to think that the signings of Sexson and Beltre last year point to the fact that the M’s FO isn’t content to become the West Coast Cubs. That may not have been the case in 2000-2003, when they stop short of compiling a true World Series contender, but now that we are starting near the bottom of the Success Cycle, I think we may be making the right moves. This is not the time to spend Ace money on the likes of Burnett or Millwood, but another pitcher — to put alongside Felix and Moyer, and in front of Pinero and whomever else we keep around — is a necessity. It makes me wonder, what #2/#3 pitcher (not named Jeff Suppan) would be the right fit here?
Suppan … AL experience … Kansas City
Yeah, and the Red Sox traded with the Pirates to get him when they needed starting pitching down the 2003 stretch. He was so bad for Boston (ERA of 5.5+), he was left off the playoff rosters. If you want another “pitch to contact” Franklin clone, you don’t need to sign Suppan. Just go with Franklin. (Or better yet, do neither.)
looks like Jim Leyland (after a token interview with Juan Samuel) is the new Tigers manager
#50 Hey, gotta give Juan Samuel some credit for taking the time during his token interview to take some well needed shots at Pudge
HL: But make no mistake about it, the number one objective of this ownership, and this franchise, is to bring championship play back here to Safeco Field, and eventually get this team to the World Series.â€Â
Why isn’t the number objective to build a team that can win a World Series? Does he think this is some kind of Miss America pageant, where it’s an honor just to compete?
53 – be easy on Howard. He used to say that the team’s primary goal was just to make the playoffs. His PR people are coaching him along, but I guess he’s not that fast of a learner.
Many in this thread have written about expecting an increase or decrease from several players next year when comparing their numbers to this year…
Was it my imagination or was it recently revealed that Reed spent all of this year with some sort of damage to his wrist? I know that he was out the last couple weeks, but didn’t some sort of MRI or something show damage that had been there for a while? Maybe I misread Will Carroll or something.
If Reed was injured (even if he didn’t know it) much of the year, wouldn’t that really change expectations next year? Couldn’t we reasonably expect a pretty big increase in his overall numbers next year (healthy, 2nd year, experience…)?
Can someone shed some light on the origins of the epithet “Pocket Lint” ?
#54 “I know that he was out the last couple weeks, but didn’t some sort of MRI or something show damage that had been there for a while? Maybe I misread Will Carroll or something.”
Answer: Reed played during the last homestand and had some abysmal ABs in the 2-hole after the Rangers issued 3 IBBs to Ichiro. Hargrove had 3 lefties at the start of the lineup allowing Showalter with the expanded Sept rosters to “LOOGY-up”.
“If Reed was injured (even if he didn’t know it) much of the year, wouldn’t that really change expectations next year? Couldn’t we reasonably expect a pretty big increase in his overall numbers next year (healthy, 2nd year, experience…)? ”
Here’s a hint for you: Jeremy Reed’s next HR in Safeco will be his first.
I like to think that “pocket lint” is meant to be the equivalent of the substantive value of a Bob Finnigan article.
25: Just say no to Frank Thomas. His HR/AB rate was obscene because he has such trouble running the bases that he started swinging for the fences on everything. Notice that his K rate went noticeably up as well while his walk rate shrank. It’s sort of like that point in a starter’s game where he knows he’s tiring and he starts reaching back for more velocity. It works for a little while and then he collapses. Juan Gone is probably a safer investment than Frank Thomas at this point.
26: As was mentioned later, acquiring those players still cost us talent. And we have to take on their contracts, so really, what are we saving? Nothing. It’s better to pursue through FA. Anyways, on your list: either Perez is interesting. Vasquez doesn’t want to be on the west coast, Matt Morris = AJ Burnett w/o the talent, Buhrle’s not going anywhere, I’ll assume you meant Josh Beckett, he’s nice but expensive to acquire, Mussina is a dumb acquisition, Halladay’s going nowhere.
31: We had 25 mil to spend last year too, we went with maximizing the value of that money.
33: We’re not 100 runs away from being “decent” That would be 799 runs scored, fourth behind New York, Boston and Texas, we’re about 50 runs from being decent.
Also, I believe it’s (age+1)*10 for IP, either way, 200 or 210 IP is not bad. Smoltz had 230, Colon 220, Carpenter 240, etc. Mostly around the 220-230 mark. Do you honestly think that 20-30 less IP by your ace means you have “absolutely no chance of finishing out of last place”? because I contest that opinion.
How does getting Millwood and Burnett cost 50 million?
45: Hasegawa, Nelson, Franklin aren’t coming back. Likely neither is Harris. Mads, Atchison, Thornton are going to be 30 and are easily countered by Lopez, Reed, Yuni being early 20s. Most teams are around late 20 in avg age. And what counts are your impact players. Who cares if your bench is 35 on average? The Ms are no longer old, they’re young.
54: Yes, Reed has ligament damage to his wrist and played a considerable portion of the season with it. His minor league numbers and skillset represent someone who will likely improve quite a bit in 06.
Steve Thornton, I think you’re being a bit TOO cynical about the M’s fanbase and ownership, and the connection each makes between winning and attendance.
RE: fanbase — They might not know what makes for a winning team, but they can read the standings. Attendance in ’05 may have exceeded projections, but it still was off 10% from ’04, and 30% from the ’02 peak. I personally think there’s a 1-year lag in the connection between declining performance and declining attendance, so barring an instant turnaround (real or perceived) attendance is destined to fall again in ’06.
RE: ownership — I think Lincoln understands the above, and ownership knows the M’s must return to pennant contention to keep the goose laying those golden eggs. They will not go Steinbrenner on us and overspend profligately to buy a title, but neither will they go Selig on us, and bleed every possible dollar from the franchise. I think Lincoln is credible regarding the desire to field a winning ballclub.
And don’t forget, Dan Wilson did play some pretty good baseball on some pretty good teams. Piniella wouldn’t have tolerated Wilson for eight years if he didn’t.
I believe “pocket lint” alludes to the fact that he’s so deep in the M’s pocket that he has become the equivalent of whatever else is in there.
“Wadded up gum wrapper” and “partially melted chap stick” just didn’t have the same ring.
Pocket Lint really said that the M’s will go hard after Jay Gibbons and Ron Villone.
good grief.
What will Jay Gibbons possibly bring to the table?
See elsewhere on USSM for my Wilson rant (http://ussmariner.com/?p=2985#comment-68931). He was a useful, not great, player for short periods, surrounded by oceans and oceans of not very good at all. At no time in his career was he one of the best catchers in the league. His idolization in Seattle pretty much sums up everything about Mariners baseball that drives me batty.
Too cynical? Of course. That’s my mission in life. Pessimists are never disappointed. The M’s will win 53 games next year, and every game they pick up over that is a bonus for me — which means I’ll end up happier than you and all the others who are hoping for 90, n’est-ce pas?
We’ll see what happens. I admit to being very discouraged that picking up Sexson and Beltre, and all the other changes they made, resulted in a whopping ONE RUN more offense and about 70 runs improvement on defense, and a whole three games where it counts, Games Behind.
Dude, Reed is a AAAA hitter. He’s not going to hit .300 anytime soon in the majors. I wish it wasn’t true, but it is.
tede – The “Pocket Lint” nickname comes from a “Breaking Balls” column Derek did for Prospectus back in May of 2003, titled “Your Guide to Local Sportswriter Identification”.
A “Pocket Lint” sportswriter is defined as being…
“So far in the local teams’ pockets he’d get trapped in the filter if they any of them ever washed their pants. Just as lazy as the Bored and Bitter, but more eager because he wants the scoop first. Easy indicator: Are there unsourced comments in their stories that support team goals?”
The entire article can be read at: http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1914
Re: Brian Rust — IIRC, I believe it’s been pretty well demonstrated that attendance lags performance by a year (in either direction); that’s why we hit our peak attendance in ’02, not ’01, and yes, it means the gate will be down again next season. And you’re right, it’s a safe assumption that ownership knows this as well as anyone.
58. If Reed played the bulk of the season with a bum wrist, then that may ironically be a good sign: it could explain his struggles at the plate. If the wrist heals, he could be a force in 2006.
All these are just that: if’s. But it’s good to know it’s possible his struggles at the plate aren’t because he (OMG Terrible Pun Alert) hit the wall this season.
Well, they probably are, in that one of those run-ins with the wall probably hurt his wrist, but I think most of you see my point.
#63: Based on what? Your magic 8 ball? Or are you going to sit there and tell us you think a players rookie numbers represent their peak possible performance level for their career?
But I don’t want us to be middle of the pack; I want to win. Yes, we could win if we picked up 50 runs, IF we picked up 100+ on defense at the same time. We’re 100 offensive runs behind where we were in ’03 (and 114 behind on defense) — we won 93 games that year and, help me out here, how did we do in the playoffs again?
I heard Bavasi say age*10. Whatever. The phrase we were talking about here is “top of the rotation”, which, assuming good health and halfway decent performance, means your team IP leader. If your team leader has only 200 IP, then saying you’ll finish last is an exaggeration but not much of one. Consider who is likely to be picking up those extra innings. The Felix we’ve seen so far pitches deep into games; those innings will thus have to come not from our pretty good relief staff but one of our extremely scruffy second-string (#6-7-8) starters.
Consider also what relying on Felix as your “#1″ means. He averages 7 IP a start. That’s about 28-29 starts. As the #1, that means that he’ll have reached his innings limit in August. If we are still in the Wild Card hunt, how likely are we to hold to “hey, that’s your limit, we’re shutting you down for the year, even though we’re three games out?” What do we do? Pitch him 240 and risk injuring him?
There is no scenario for Felix being our top starter and failing to far overtop his pitch count levee. He should start the year in long relief, and move to the rotation in June, IMHO.
$50 million: I pulled the number out of my ass, but I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that the top two free agent starters combined are going to blow everyone’s mind salary-wise in this market. I think at least one of them is going to at least come close to a pitcher record. What’s that, Clemens, $18 mil for one year? These are not going to be one-year contracts.
#68– FWIW, on KOMO the other day Bavasi talked about the fine line they are going to have to walk with Felix next year, managing his innings pitched vs starts — he is well aware of the difference between having a pitcher in AAA vs the majors.
Speaking of starters, am I the only person in the world who thinks Julio Mateo is ready for at least a shot at a full-time starter’s job? I would think he’d be as good as any organizational pitcher aside from the King. I don’t expect to see Madritsch again, or Campillo for a while. Am I alone in thinking Mateo could be a better starter next year than Livingston? Or any of Meche/Franklin/Piniero, for that matter. There’s been lots of chat about some or all of that unholy trinity not coming back, which leaves a lot bigger hole in the rotation than Mr. Millwood alone can fill….
If Felix can learn some pitch efficiency, he can throw more innings with less risk.
I’d really like him to learn pitch efficiency (assuming it’s learnable).
There is no difference between having a pitcher in AAA vs the majors — innings is innings. Felix was under the same cumulative restriction in the minors as he was later in Seattle. It’s not the major-leagueness of Felix’s innings that makes them bear watching — it’s his age, pure and simple.
71. Carlos Silva of the Twins pitches to contact, and is the best example of pitch efficiency. When Bryan Price goes to sleep at night, he dreams of Carlos Silva throwing 80 pitch CG’s.
Okay, seriously, pitching to contact, assuming you have good stuff and induce tons of grounders and harmless fly balls, leads to shorter AB’s and innings, meaning fewer pitches per outing.
Like any approach, it does not work for everybody, as Bryan Price and several members of the 2005 Seattle Mariners found out the hard way.
I was under the impression that Mateo was comfortable with the bullpen and not that interested in being a starter, although of course he’ll do whatever the team asks…
Sort of like Ichiro on CF.
I think we need a management changes thread– John Hart has stepped down in Texas, with 28-year old Jon Daniels to replace him….
67, Based on him hitting for bad average with no power and no SB threat for an entire year of MLB playing time. It looks to me like he just can’t make the adjustment to this level. That’s just my opinion I could be wrong (and I hope I am) but I really don’t see him hitting for much more pop or higher average. I think he’ll turn into a good journeyman, but that’s not what we need. We have too many guys that can hit .250-.275 with no power. We need to replace those guys with better hitters or it’s goign ot be another crappy year.
Mateo also had that one spot start early this season where he just got shelled over 4 innings.
Smeg,
That kind of analysis got Bobby Abreu traded for Kevin Stocker.
#76: Like I said, he was a rookie….most rookies struggle…..most players show improvement after they gain a year or two of experience at the MLB level. Based on his minor league results there is no reason to expect Reed to not improve upon his rookie performance.
Boston did well the years Pedro Martinez pitched 200 or less innings. St. Louis made the World Series last year with Chris Carpenter pitching less than 200 innings.
RE #71
Felix is averaging somewhere around 14.5 pitches per inning. I thought that was fairly efficient for a starter, but I don’t have any rankings in front of me. Anyone?
Give Reed some credit. No one ever said he was going to be Ty Cobb. He’s 24. When Jim Edmonds was 24, he was barely playing. Brady Clark was in AA. Randy Winn was about where Reed is, but playing less. Kenny Lofton was barely in the majors, and sucking. Just to pick a few names off the current top CF list. His development is clearly well behind Griffey, Jones, Sizemore, Damon, and Beltran, but you don’t have to be as good as Andruw Jones to be a valuable contributor.
Heck, the Yanks won the East with a dead man in center field.
Pedro:
2004 – 217.0 IP, second on team. Sox: 949 runs.
2003 – 186.7 IP, third on team. Sox: 961 runs.
2002 – 199.3 IP, second on team. Sox: 859 runs.
2001 – 116.7 IP, fifth on team. Sox: 772 runs.
2000 – 217.0 IP, first on team. Sox: 792 runs.
1999 – 213.3 IP, first on team. Sox: 836 runs.
1998 – 233.7 IP, first on team. Sox: 876 runs.
In Pedro’s time with the Sox, he never led the Sox in IP with fewer than 213.3 IP. I also don’t think the M’s are going to score 950 runs next year.
Likewise, Carpenter was not the Cards’ top-of-the-rotation starter last year; he was FIFTH on the team in IP, with only 28 starts. And they scored 855 runs (with no DH), a total we haven’t been near since 2001.
If you want to argue that a team can win with their most effective starter (not their top of rotation starter) going less than 200 IP, if they have a really heavy offense, too, then fine. But that’s not what I was saying. The M’s have a pathetic offense.
I’m not saying he won’t be valuable, I’m saying what he brings is not what we need to compete. I think Reed is a great 4th outfielder, and I know that my analysis is probably really flawed and subjective, but I just see a guy up there that looks overmatched.
The M’s could be very, very profitable forever playing just as bad as they have been.
Yeah, I really noticed them drawing well during the 80′s in the Kingdome.
Seriously? Look at the Huskies. Look at the Hawks- modern stadium, mediocre team, every so often they get blacked out. The Sonics? They had problems selling out once they became mediocre.
The idea that somehow Lincoln can put a team of crap players in Mariner uniforms, pay them $85 million and he’ll be doing great is, well, silly. The Mariners have already lost 800K attendance from their best years (2001-2002). Assuming that’s $40 revenue per head (which is likely low), that’s 30+ million they left on the floor by being crap instead of good, and almost all of it is windfall (since you HAVE to have your stadium open for all 81 games). You think they’re going to get a killer local TV or radio deal if they suck the next 3-5 years? You think a lot of people watch games when the M’s are out of the race by August 15?
If Lincoln REALLY wanted to do the “hey, let’s just have some good guys play baseball and get our butts kicked and we’ll still make money” approach, he’d cut payroll. A lot. You’d have the D-Rays (who, BTW, have won more games than we have the last 2 years)- who likely make enough money from their split of national TV money and so on that they can keep going as an AL in-league farm team for years to come, and only draw 12K a game. That, or they’d take advantage of “greater fool theory” and put the team up for sale, and rake in their 500 million or so.
The bottom line is that I think it’s silly to ascribe to sinister conspiracy theory what can easily be explained by incompetence. Mariner management wanted to spend 80-90 million this year and in 2004 to get a good team. What they got was crap. I think it’s certainly not intentional or a desirable state of affairs as far as they are concerned- especially when they KNOW from firsthand experience they can make more money by putting an outstanding product on the field. The problem is they might not know how to put together that product, and that’s what should worry people.
Steve, you lost me on your definition of “top of the rotation.” If you mean the pitcher with the most innings pitched, I think the baseball term is “the pitcher with the most innings pitched.”
85. You’ve got a good point about the profitability of bad baseball, though keep in mind the Kingdome was also a piss-scented cavern with no amenities, compared to the beautiful Safeco Field with its variety of concessions. Plus we’ve got Ichiro, Sexson and other stars that draw fans. The biggest star we had pre-Griffey was Alvin Davis. Great guy, good player, not someone most would pay to see on a team that until 1995 had never fielded a playoff team. Put that all together, and there wasn’t much incentive to spend a night with the M’s in the Kingdome.
#78 “That kind of analysis got Bobby Abreu traded for Kevin Stocker.”
Abreu had 17 HRs in his first full season as a starter. Reed had three.
Abreu showed evidence of power in the minor leagues, Reed did not.
Reed is getting a reprieve because to do otherwise would be to admit that the Garcia trade was a flop and right now there are more pressing priorities than CF.
I’m afraid as long as Reed plays at Safeco, Joe Simpson (and not Abreu) will be the closer comparison.
If they don’t reach 81 wins next year, Bavasi will be out. Deservedly or not.
Bobby Abreu hit .250/.329/.372 before the Astros left him unprotected in the expansion draft and Tampa selected him before moving him to Philly for Kevin Stocker. You can rewrite history if you want, but the comparison’s valid.
Reed’s going to be a good major league player whether you want to admit it or not.
Felix IS pretty efficient with 14.5 P/IP. The top pitchers in the AL in P/IP among those qualified for the ERA title: Silva 12.2, Towers 14.2, Byrd 14.3, Jason Johnson 14.3, Johan Santana 14.4, Colon 14.6, Radke 14.6, Buehrle 14.7.
I suspect King Felix P/IP will go up a bit as he gets hit a bit more, but being efficient is a strength not a problem.
God I hope you’re right.
By good, what do you mean? Is he goign to hit .300 with like 10 dingers? How long do you think it will take him to get to a good level?
Back to the budget.
Their share of MLB’s take when Jeff Smuylan’s bank buys the Nationals for $450 looks to be $15 million. Plus their share of an guestimated profit of $10 million for the Nationals would be about $300 thousand.
Lincoln said their year end was November 1st.
The DC suckers are being pressured to approve the new stadium lease so Rhinesdorf’s boy Jeff can buy the club before the end of the World Series.
Using Lincoln math, then that’s about $15 million or so to go the towards the Safeco debt paydown (and not next year’s roster), right?
If you want a decent look at what Reed’s career arc probably resembles, try this one. In his prime, he hits .300/.370/.460. Next year? I wouldn’t rule out .275/.350/.430 or something along those lines
I think Kotsay has more pop than Reed, but that’s a good point. I think that if Reed projects to being a Mark Kotsay type guy we should definately be able to do better with our revenue, but it’s at least not terrible.
Top of the rotation to me has to be the guy with the most innings pitched. That’s what top of the rotation means. He’s the guy who gets 36 starts instead of 35 or 32 or 28 like the other guys. If he’s not starting Opening Day, he’s not at the top of the rotation, is he? Unless he’s hurt. But nobody’s plans for Felix involve injuries, I hope.
If the top of your rotation doesn’t lead the club in IP, then there’s something wrong — you’ve got the wrong guy there. He’s hurt, or he’s less effective and pitches shorter outings than the other guys. But overall it’s pretty consistent — the guy at the top of the rotation has the most starts and the most IP.
The baseball term YOU’RE looking for is “best”. “Best starter”. “Our best starter next year is obviously Felix Hernandez, but because he’s limited to 200 innings, he won’t be at the top of the rotation, at least not at first”.
PS – Dave, that link’s bad, there’s no player ID 3685 anymore apparently. Who did you have in mind?
Never mind, link works now. ESPN is constantly messing with my head, I need to replenish my tin foil. Yeah, he’s a reasonable comp. You can win with players like that (if you have some better ones around to go with).
and interestingly, that is the same comparison Bavasi made for Reed the other day.
It’s the one I made when I wrote up Reed for BP two and a half years ago after watching him in Winston-Salem. It’s been pretty popular ever since.
so is anyone going to bother writing a letter to the times? at least call the man out on his inaccuracies?
#98–I thought I recalled it coming up when Reed came over in the trade…
Steve, I honestly have never heard anyone use “top of the rotation” to mean simply the most innings pitched. Pedro Martinez was the opening day starter for the Red Sox in 2002 and 2003 when he pitched less than 200 IP. If a rubber-armed, innings-eating fourth starter like Tim Wakefield throws a handful more innings over the course of the season, I don’t think anyone would consider him a “top of the rotation” starter over a dominating starter like the 2002-03 version of Pedro or would propose starting him over Pedro in game one of the playoffs.
The Red Sox made the playoffs in 2003 even though the team leader in innings pitched topped out at 203 innings.
IP = (10*AGE)
People are assuming regular season innings only. Bavasi has said that the number includes spring training innings, and most starters seem to need about 20 IP, so the 200 IP people were banking on next year from Felix are down to 180.
Then there are postseason innings to consider. Let’s be wickedly optimistic and assume that the M’s get into the postseason next year, win the DS in 4 games and lose the LCS in 7. (History is a cruel mistress.) I figure that means 3 starts for the King, at about 20 IP. I assume Young Hernandez’ arm and shoulder don’t know the difference between regular season and postseason innings, so now we’re down to 160 IP for the regular season.
Of course, if you actually want to get to the World Series and win, that will take even more IP from Young Hernandez.
If the organization is serious about getting to the World Series and serious about that 10*AGE formula, you aren’t going to see 200 IP in the regular season until he’s at least 24 years old. By then, let’s hope he will still be pitching for Your 2010 Seattle Mariners .
Using Lincoln math, then that’s about $15 million or so to go the towards the Safeco debt paydown (and not next year’s roster), right?
Or it could cover Daisuke Matzuoka’s posting fee in that weird “player acquisition” budget line item.
This whole “#1″, “top of the rotation” business is kind of meaningless anyway, except at two points in the season: Opening Day, and in the playoffs. In between those points it doesn’t matter if a guy is #1 or #4 [it might matter who is #5 if he gets skipped when there are off days].
Since I don’t expect the M’s to be in the playoffs next year, who cares whether you anoint Felix as the “#1″ starter, or the “top of the rotation guy”?
I figure if Moyer’s back he’ll start on Opening Day just to keep the pressure off the kid. But who cares?
We’ll see if/how they stick to their cap on Felix for 06. Here’s hoping they do something far more informed that simply an innings limit. Better would be to take those 200IP you budgeted him for, multiply it by the avg SP P/IP (~16 I believe) and divide by Felix’s P/IP (~14.5). That gives you 220.1 IP. At 7IP/GS, it gives you over 31 starts, which is perfectly normal for the guy at the top of your rotation. You plan on him skipping a start or two here and there for normal fatigue things.
I don’t think they’re going to include possible postseason IP for him in considering his reg season load. To do so is just foolish.
Steve, I still have no idea what you mean by 50M. Total contract value? They’ll each probably get deals near 50M total so no way you get both for that. 50M per year combined? That’s a giant dose of hyperbole there. They’re not topping 30 and are much more likely to be between 20 and 25.
Going way up to 73 about “pitching to contact.”
No one in Minnesota ever, ever refers to it as pitching to contact, even in the case of Silva. They talk about being aggresive, they talk about throwing strikes, and they talk about not giving hitters free bases, but they don’t ever mention pitching to contact. Maybe it’s just two ways of saying the same thing, but I think there’s a difference to be had there.
Throwing strikes makes me think of a pitcher who is consistently hitting the corners, keeping the ball low in the zone when he needs to, getting it up when he needs to. Pitching to contact makes me think of a pitcher serving a fat one down the middle of the plate.
Making good pitches in the strike zone is a good thing. Conceding contact to the hitter is not.
Well, yeah, but say “pitch to contact” to Felix, you get the former; say it to Franklin/Meche/Piniero, you get the latter….
I still disagree. I don’t want anyone telling Felix to “pitch to contact.” I don’t see what that accomplishes any more than telling him to make his pitches accomplishes. Felix’s goal should be to make the hitters miss, but still be throwing strikes in the process. This is probably oversimplifying, but it seems that if your goal is to make the hitter miss, and you screw up, the next worse thing that happens is that the hitter makes weak contact. If your goal is for the hitter to make weak contact, and you screw up, the next worse thing that happens is that the hitter makes good contact. Dream big.
Clearly, stuff matters, which I think is what you’re getting at contrasting Felix with Franklin/Meche/Piniero. Where I think that matters is that Felix has more good pitches he can make in the strike zone than the other guys. He’s got so much movement on his pitches that even if some of them are right over, the hitters can’t line them up. Franklin/Meche/Piniero in a sense need to have much better control than Felix because there aren’t as many locations in the strike zone where they can be successful. Maybe I’m reading too much philosophy into the phrase “pitch to contact,” but every time I hear it, it makes me want to hurl.
I don’t think they’re going to include possible postseason IP for him in considering his reg season load. To do so is just foolish.
Hey, I don’t think the M’s have to worry about Felix’ IP in the postseason in 2006, either. But if they are trying to protect his arm, my point stands. From a perspective of wear and tear, his body can’t tell the difference between an IP in a regular season game in August 2008 and an IP in October 2008 in the ALCS. He’s only going to be 22 years old by then. If they’re not thinking about the total IP through the end of October, then what’s the point of having an IP limit in the organization in the first place?
And if the organization believes in an AGE*10 limit to protect its young pitchers’ arms, jiggering a formula to conjure up a 220 IP limit for a 20 year old because he’s a special guy and we really need more work from him is what strikes me as foolish. This guy is the franchise. The last thing the M’s should want to do is to work him like a rented mule. Some of the USSM guys have been gritting their teeth this season since Hargrove wanted to crank ol’ Felix up to 120 pitches/game during 2005, and I tend to side with them.
Just say no to Frank Thomas. His HR/AB rate was obscene because he has such trouble running the bases that he started swinging for the fences on everything. Notice that his K rate went noticeably up as well while his walk rate shrank. It’s sort of like that point in a starter’s game where he knows he’s tiring and he starts reaching back for more velocity. It works for a little while and then he collapses. Juan Gone is probably a safer investment than Frank Thomas at this point.
Frank Thomas had a leg injury this year, so his swinging for the fences did make sense in much the same way that Edgar swung for more power as his legs sustained more wear and tear. But Thomas is rehabbing his leg and could conceivably be back close to his old leg strength. Remember, he has never been a speedster. If he can run to 90-95% of his old speed, then he’s worth the $1 – $3 Million contract he might be seeking. Frank Thomas has been one of the very best hitters in the game since 1990. The Juan Gone comparison is ludicrous. So, longsufferin’ I’m not going to just say “no”. For now I’m going to say “maybe”, especially if he’s healthy in April.
I highly doubt Frank Thomas will get near 90-95% of his old speed, but not worth splitting hairs over.
109: I don’t see how what I outlined is jiggering. It’s pointing out the stupidity of only looking at IP. IP are not created equal. Neither are individual pitches mind you, but looking at a total pitch count for the season is a whole lot smarter than looking solely at how many innings someone throws. We say “I think Felix shouldn’t throw 120 pitches in a game”, we don’t say “I don’t think Felix should ever have a CG, it’s a risk to his arm to complete that many innings”
I also think the Age*10 rule was up to age 22 or so.
#111: Age 22? No.
Here is what was posted on the blog at http://ussmariner.com/?p=2766
:
They hired Dr. Jobe and his team to work on studies to discover if there were any better ways to prevent arm injuries, and they were unable to find anything better than limiting innings. The organization will not let a pitcher throw more than 10 innings for every year he is old, including spring training, and no pitcher under 24 can throw more than 200 innings.
They hired a team headed by one of the “brand names” in sports medicine. The team didn’t share your view of the stupidity of looking at IP. Having paid for this information, I don’t think the M’s should discard it just because the pitcher to whom it most applies happens to be both 1) very young and 2) very good.
Rotoworld is suggesting that we pick up Guardado’s option just to lock him up. They feel he’ll get more than 6 million on the free agent market and will decline his player option. I really don’t want to see us spend that much on a closer. But Eddie is seen as a good guy too, so he might be locked up just for that.
For once, I’m glad that a thread was put up on an item like this. I read this stream of crap at the Times online, and it reminded me of all the worst PR, funny money, just-trust-our-phoney-designs hazy miasma which has surrounded most Mariners decisions for ten years and more. This article wasn’t just disconnected from the truth: it’s patently dishonest on the face of it.
Finnigan stays employed not due to any competence at his profession, or passion for the sport, but as a pliant shill for the interlocking agendas of the Times and the Mariners execs. There is no other way to see it, in my view.
And Dave, re: Jeremy Reed, that comp to Kotsay was good when you wrote it—but it isn’t anymore, really. We’ll get to this later, supposing that I keep posting, but:
Kotsay’s age 24 season was the least productive of his career, but he still was better than Reed. Kotsay’s isolated power has been better every year than Reed, and always will be, fewer doubles, but thats because he’s hitting those balls for more triples and a useful share of dingers. Reed has never shown that ability to drive the ball, at any time; he’s not going to learn now, to use your frequent remark, primarly because he simply doesn’t have the ability. Reed walks at a higher rate, yes, but he’s making contact at enough of a lower rate as to cancel out the difference and more. Kotsay hits lefties quite well; better than righties. Reed hits lefties damn poorly; in particular, his slugging vanishes against them, all he can manage are singles, most of them on the ground to my observation. Throw out Reed’s poor output against lefties, and even his totals against righties are below Kotsay’s composite breakdown. Jeremy Reed is not Kotsay, and he’s never going to turn into him, either.
The better comparison is Sean Burroughs, something I alluded to a long while back. Burroughs makes more contact than Reed, but walks less. Given that Burroughs is hitting more singles, his slugging isn’t significantly better. Burroughs doesn’t hit lefties particularly well, either. Now, Reed _did_ manage to hit more doubles, but not many more, mostly because he hit righties for better power. Still, all in all Burroughs is a better hitter than Reed, at a comparable age. . . . Burroughs got dumped to AAA, and likely has no future role with the Padres. He’s never going to be a star, and will be a marginal MLeaguer for a few years. The fact that Reed is a CFer, and a pretty effective one gives him the edge, here, but neither guy is a superior offesnsive performer.
Reed IS a AAAA guy with the bat, in my view, exactly. Reed would have to hit .300 or better to actually have significant offensive value as an on-base guy. He might do it in his career year, but watching him fail to make contact with the pitch so much of the time, and get eaten up by good fastballs I’m not betting any of my money on that. As a platoon CFer, or a 4th OFer, he’s a useful guy. As a fulltime player, he’s a guy who should be replaced. I’d happily see him in a package for Vernon Wells, but that isn’t going to happen, ’cause I think Riccardi is smarter than that.
I think you’re smarter than that, too, Dave. It’s time to move on from your earlier view of Reed, methinks, and to see him _as he really is NOW_. Which is nothing special, and not even anything Mark Kotsay is going to accomplish.
39 of Reed’s 124 hits went for extra bases, good for 31.4 percent of his total hits. In Kotsay’s first four full seasons in the majors, he posted XBH/H ratios of 26.4 percent, 29.8 percent, 30.3 percent, and 34 percent. His power was more developed early on than Reed’s is, but I’ve done a ton of work on this issue, and XBH/H is a tremendous predictor of future power.
Giving up on Jeremy Reed because of his 2005 season is just foolishness. History doesn’t support your negative view of him, and there’s almost no objective evidence to think that he’s incapable of turning his doubles into home runs.
“Having paid for this information, I don’t think the M’s should discard it just because the pitcher to whom it most applies happens to be both 1) very young and 2) very good.”
I wasn’t advancing that front. I said they should modify it because the pitcher in question is very efficient with his pitches. It has nothing to do with his age or overall quality as a pitcher. It’s a simple fact. Which are you more concerned about: the number of innings Felix completes or the number of pitches he throws? I cannot the grasp the reasoning behind ever saying the former over the latter. I’m 95% sure any medical person would also say the latter and that overwhelmingly likely, he or she made the recommendation to limit Felix to a league standard 200 innings.
If Felix had the efficieny of Gil Meche, would you or do you think the team would still want him throwing 200IP at age 20? How does it make any sense to look at IP instead of pitch counts?
I think you look at both pitch counts and innings with Felix. Why? Because it’s better to error on the side of caution.
In case people aren’t following, I’m not saying just raise Felix’s budget to 220IP. I’m saying, take those 200IP, multiply by league average P/IP (say 16), you get 3200. That’s Felix’s budget for pitches in 2006. And keep track of that in lieu of IP. Then, because of his efficiency, if it continues at ~14.5, we as fans can expect him to be able to throw 220 IP in those same 3200 pitches.
#115: How he is now? You mean during his rookie season????
I can only guess how many fans have written a guy off after a slow rookie season, only to be “surprised” that the said player shows improvement the next couple years and ends up producing what most people expected of him.
I guess I’m just baffed at fans who can look at a guys rookie season and declare said player will never reach their potential because they didn’t produce what “I” expected them to do their rookie season. Its decisions based on just that kind of data that lead organizations to kick themselves in the arss for many years in the future.
Here’s a fun one to think about (sort of).
Reading the comments above and remembering Bavasi saying them, Felix’s limit is 200 IP. Let’s say because he throws fewer pitchers per inning that average, they re-asses and make it 210. Figure 20 IP in spring training (He had 13 and M’s projected starters were 19-22) makes for 190 IP. Being cautious this year, KF has averaged 7IP per start. Let’s assume the Mariners plan is to start him in the bullpen and/or treat him as the fifth starter — looking at 28 starts at just less than 7 IP with consideration to shutting him down the last few weeks.
It’s August 1st and the Mariners are two games out of first place. King Felix has thrown 120 IP. If you start him every fifth game, he’ll max out his innings before the last week of the season (10 * 7) and won’t be able to pitch in the playoffs. If you limit him to 5 innings per start or skip his turn a few times, it’s much less likely that there are any playoffs. What do you do?
We can only hope the Mariners have this dilemma.
115. Didn’t Jeremy Reed hit 35 doubles?
Also, AAAA outfielders don’t make the all-out diving catches that Reed does. They play center more like Brant Brown or a slightly more competent Melky Cabrera.
He played most of his ROOKIE season with a bad wrist, so combine the adjustment with the injury and I can see why he struggled at the plate. Don’t discredit Reed because he doesn’t hit 320/380/500.
Remember Bill James’ Seventh Law: bad organizations focus their frustrations on their best players.
The Texas Rangers were a great example of that when they had A-Rod.
One thing that Reed’s biggest fans on this board seem to ignore is that there is a middle position on him. Not all people who question Reed’s year are writing him off, as Bela Txadux is doing, above.
My view on Reed is that he must improve next year to remain on the team. Sure, I’m all for giving him a mulligan at the plate in this rookie year. But his improvement needs to be close to Dave’s projection above… .780 OPS. Because that’s what Ichiro hit this year (with speed) and he has begrudgingly said he’ll move to center for the good of the team. If Jeremy’s defense remains solid and he inches close to .750 OPS, then fine. That’s good improvement.
As for his wrist, he wasn’t playing injured all year long. It’s been stated that it was for the last several weeks. On August 1st his OPS was .665, on September 1st .667, and on October 1st .674. The guy was remarkably consistent at the plate, all year, with or without the injury.
Correction: I said “remain on the team”. I meant… remain an everyday starter.
One other idea on centerfield…
If Jeremy still struggles with lefthanded pitching at the end of 2006, a true platoon of Jeremy and Adam Jones might be a very good fit in late 2006 and beyond until one of these two guys earn the position outright.
Adam S. I would throw the innings count out the window, put him on a very strict pitch count (which would limit the innings), and tell him that if he fails to report any pain or possible injury, no matter how minor, immediately he’s going to spend any time on the DL listening to Creed and Barbara Streisand on constant loop.
But that’s also because I agree about IP being a strange way to protect a pitcher, I think pitcher abuse points/pitch counts are a much better metric. But IP is an easy number to find and look at, so I guess it makes life easier for the organization (and gives them an easy number to give to fans to prove they aren’t riding him too hard). I’m sure IP isn’t the primary number they’re going to consider with each start, or even for most of the season, so I’m not too worried.
The way IP makes sense is if you’re worried about the guy getting tired and losing his mechanics towards the end of the year, but how much difference is it going to make if he’s training and working out hard while you’re “sitting him on the bench” to rest him? I would feel much more comfortable with a pitching coach who keeps a strict eye on how the pitcher looks and acts to try to diagnose that, rather than an arbitrary number.
But IP is an easy number to find and look at, so I guess it makes life easier for the organization (and gives them an easy number to give to fans to prove they aren’t riding him too hard).
So fans want to see Felix stay healthy and so this subterfuge is necessary, but the organization doesn’t want to see him remain healthy? That makes no sense.
Using IP strictly as a work barometer rather than pitch count is absurd because a 35 pitch inning counts the same in innings pitched as a 10 pitch inning. It’s a draconian approach to limiting pitcher work.
Rusty, your ability to pull quotes out of context is journalism worthy.
“ignore IP [in favor of other metrics]” != “team wants Felix injured”
Matt seemed to indicate that one of the reasons for relying on IP is to have proof against criticism by the fans. That makes no sense to me. Longsufferin, at least I use a quote. You’re attributing stuff to me that I didn’t even say.
“the organization doesn’t want to see him remain healthy” – You
“team wants Felix injured.” – Me paraphrasing you
Those look like equivalent statements to me.
“Ignore IP [in favor of other metrics]” definitely not me.
You’re reading way too much into what I was saying. Matt made a comment about the organization’s intent in regards to Felix that makes no sense to me. I haven’t weighed in on what metrics need to be used to keep Felix healthy.
I never attributed “Ignore IP [in favor of other metrics]†to you, that’s what Matt said.
You then quoted that part and made your statement that “…the organization doesn’t want to see him remain healthy?”
To which I pointed out that those two statements do not relate to one another. You attributed the opinion, “the organization doesn’t want to see [Felix] remain healthy” to Matt’s statement. I contest that opinion being present.
Rusty you don’t think it makes sense that they would want to give a number that anyone can look up on MLB.com in seconds, rather than something 90% have never heard of like pitcher abuse points, or something they would have to dig up or add up themselves like total pitches or pitches/start?
Look at it this way, Felix has the greatest year ever and his first 20 games he throws no hitters on 90 pitches. Is having him pitch another game in the same risk category as if he’s gone out there 30 times and gone 6 innings on 130 pitches?
I’m not saying they want to hurt him, in fact I stated that I doubt the total IP will be considered important at all until late in the year and then it may well be as much about preventing criticism from the fans as anything else. I’m sure they’re going to be monitoring the same things we would on a daily basis, I just hope they’re strict on the things that really will get him hurt.
is anyone clear on the spiezio situation? is the $250,000 buyout referenced above for a 4th year option on his contract, or is the 3rd year an option year?
Longsufferin, I made an absurdum reductio counter-argument to show that Matt’s argument that the organization needs proof for the fans is silly. Absurdum reductio arguments aren’t the best, but they’re used all the time on this board so I’m not sure what your beef is.
Things are inappropriately inferred by an author’s remarks all the time. Why just last night you inferred that I wanted Frank Thomas with a bad leg on the Mariners. I thought it could be inferred that I wanted Thomas with a fully rehabbed leg so he wouldn’t have to swing for the fences, on every at bat. You didn’t pick up on that so I explained my remark later. No harm done.
Matt, I’m saying that the franchise isn’t looking to set up proof, in advance, that they did a good job protecting Felix. They’re simply trying to protect Felix. You don’t have to attribute any secondary motivations by the organization in this regard.
Ok, I wish you had just used that explanation first of all, because I had no idea what you were getting at re: IP.
However, I disagree with Frank Thomas. You specifically mentioned the spike in his HR/AB ratio. If Thomas had a healthy leg, he wouldn’t have had to swing for the fences on every AB. Meaning his higher HR/AB ratio would not be sustained. So I’m lost on how your argument about his HR/AB could be inferred to mean you wanted Thomas on a healthy leg.
Well, no one wants Thomas with a bum leg. That’s pretty easy to infer. I pointed out his spike in HR/AB because it was remarkable all in itself. Up to this point, we didn’t know what the ceiling was on Thomas’ power. Now we know. I wouldn’t expect Thomas to use such a hard swing on every at bat with a healthy leg. But you get all his other hitting abilities with a healthy Thomas, plus you get incredible power as he showed this year under other circumstances.
Think about it this way… a power hitter that can hit to all fields and adjust his swing to hit the ball over the fence, at will, is almost ideal for the spacious confines of Safeco Field. Sounds like Sexson only with the the possiblity for a 4th outcome – the simple basehit. Wait a minute… it sounds like Edgar.
It is legitimate to look at IP. Every IP involves sitting around in the dugout and cooling off for five or ten minutes or longer (maybe shorter, given our offense). Every IP started means throwing eight warmup pitches that “don’t count” against the pitch count, but take some wear and tear just the same. Every IP ended gives the pitcher a chance to strand baserunners and start pitching the next inning from the windup instead of the stretch.
I’m sure Dr. Jobe’s team knew that there was such a thing as pitch counts, and they may have been aware of Pitcher Abuse Points. “Modifying” their advice because the pitcher involved is one you want to ride a little harder, for whatever reason, is at best unwise.
#121: Thank you for picking up on the point I started off trying to make.
After picking him up in the Rule 5 draft, the Twins used Johann Santana out of the bullpen from 2000 until 2004 (his age 25 season) and kept his IP well below 200 before making him exclusively a starter in 2004. Some variation on that plan for the M’s to use with Felix may be a good idea, although the marketing department and fans won’t like it one bit.
141. Good points. With that in mind, I think both IP and pitch count should be taken into account. You have a point, LB, about the downtime and warm-up pitches. However, a 10 pitch inning and a 35 pitch inning still both count as 1.0 IP. Both should be taken into account when deciding how long to work a pitcher. If a manager and pitching coach find that too complicated, both should lose their respective jobs.
A good example is to start with a 120 pitch limit BUT drop that limit by 10 pitches every time a) an inning lasts long than 20 pitches and b) more than 5 of your batters come to the plate in your half of the inning. That of course can be changed or approached differently, but limiting a pitcher can be approached from both IP and number of pitches.
Dave, further re: Jeremy Reed is/is not Mark Kotsay, in Kotsay’s first two years in MLB he was 22 and 23, two years _younger_ than Reed, and notably less experienced as a hitter. By the time he was Reed’s age, he was showing the level of power he has ever since. Kotsay hit lefties well from the getgo, and became quite good at it by Reed’s age. The comparison you’re advancing here simply isn’t a very good one anymore, that’s why I dispute it.
I’m well aware of Reed’s XBH %, and it is a tantalizing figure, isn’t it? But it’s just a number: what is the context of that number? In early September when I was thinking about Reed, he had over 30 doubles, 3 triples, and 3 dingers; later he hit a few more doubles. I thought at the time, How the hell did he hit thirty doubles, I can’t remember more than a couple of them? I had my answer, but then I had the evidence of the eyes, too. I was at the park last Tuesday, and Reed hit a double: a fat fly ball that went 330 ft., split the LFer and CFer perfectly and rolled to the warning track. Reed legged it out. . . . And that’s the issue: many, if not most of Jeremy’s doubles are ‘leg doubles;’ he’s the master of the hustle hit. So I framed my longstanding feeling about Reed differently: when was the last time you saw Jeremy Reed hit a ball off the wall? Not very damned often, no. Those leg doubles aren’t turning into HRs; they’re just not.
You are using the word ‘objective’ above regarding statistical information on Reed when it would be better [because more accurate] to use the word ‘quantitative.’ There is ample objective evidence to support the contention that Reed has no power and is unable to develop it. Two years at AAA and in the Bigs he’s shown negligible HR power: the _evidence_ is that he doesn’t have it. It’s the PROJECTION which may or may not prove out, but the projection is speculative; the objective component is ‘no power.’
And there is the evidence of the eyes. Jeremy doesn’t get around on the inside pitch, and it’s a big part of whey lefties erase him as a hitter. Should Reed pull the ball more, then? Well, the word early in ’05 was just that, that he WAS trying to pull everything, and the team had him stop that when he wasn’t even hitting .200 and go back to using the whole field: Reed has already _tried_ pulling the ball, and to this point it didn’t work for him. I’m pushing the hypothesis that Jeremy’s doubles are largely well placed fly balls that he legs out; I haven’t charted that over the season, so I could be wrong, yes, but _this_ speculation fits my experience of watching him for 1+ years, now. Few, very few of Reed’s balls in play are hard hit line drives. Balls hit like that turn into HRs with experience; leg doubles don’t.
Regarding the issue of Reed’s wrist, Rusty in #124 covers it well. As I read the comments on that, it was stated that the wrist had no impact on his hitting until _maybe_ late August, and even then the numbers don’t show any difference at all. The wrist is a non-explanation for Reed’s results, so far as I can tell.
I’m quite willing to grant that my ‘projection’ could be wrong—but I doubt it. A year from now, the issue won’t be disputable at all, Jeremy will settle it for us. I’m not advocating ‘giving up on Reed’: I’m advocating moving him while he’s still projectible for someone of substance before the projections finally intersect his demonstrated results.
143. You’re far too quick to dismiss the wrist injury to Reed.
Rusty in comment 124 said that Reed hurt his wrist in August and his numbers stayed constant indicating it’s not a factor. However, Will Carroll @ BP said that the injured wrist, an injury that had been kept under wraps until this August, has actually been hurt most of the season, and would explain Reed’s struggles at the plate.
Given the choice between believing Rusty, and believing Will Carroll, I’m going with the guy who writes for the reputable pay site. Call me crazy. Looks to me like Reed’s getting written off after one season, his ROOKIE season, by his own fans because a) he’s not Cammy or Griffey and b) he only hit .255 with 33 doubles despite a bad wrist.
$25M this offseason???!!! TRY $35M we have to spend!!!
I’m SO TIRED every year hearing that we have practically NOTHING for FA signings. And the Times shouldn’t even allow Finnigan to have a calculator, let alone publish garbage like he does in everyone of his articles. Even with Sexson’s signing bonus being paid out in 2006 (Beltre’s signing bonus was totally paid out in 2005)…we have a hell’va lot more than $25M to spend this offseason!!! I defy anyone to question the following contract payroll disbursements for 2006, and the following expired contracts that will free up the following money. I have a detailed spreadsheet that I keep track of ALL player contracts with the associated links to back this all up:
Players under contract in 2006:
Beltre $11M
BetanCourt $350K
Bloomquist $316K
Boone $0
Bucky ??? (AAA)
Cirillo $0 (FINALLY!!!) 2005 we paid his final portion of $4.78M
Franklin ???
Guardado $4.5M (Player Option. I doubt Seattle will exercise Team Option)
Ibanez $4.25M
Ichiro $12M
Jarvis $0 (FINALLY!!!)
Lopez $316K
Madritsch $316K (DL until Allstar break AT LEAST)
Mateo ($390K)
Meche ???
Moyer ???
Nelson $0
Olivo $0
Pineiro $5.125M (Plus add’l incentives that add to a total of $6.3M)
Putz $316K
Reed $316K
Reese $300K (Buyout)
Sele $0
Sexson $17.5M (Includes 100% signing bonus paid in 2006)
Sherrill $316K
Shiggy $330K (Buyout)
Soriano $316K
Spiezo $3.1M
Thornton $316K
Villone $0 (Traded)
Wiki $250K (Buyout)
Wilson $0 (Retired)
Winn $0 (Traded)
Total Contract Payout for currently signed players, including buyouts of Wiki/Shiggy/Reese?
TOTAL: $64,717,000
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Let me highlight the freed up money in a different way:
2006 Freed Up Salary
Boone: $9M
Moyer: $7.5M
Wilson: $1.75M
Cirillo: $4.78M
Jarvis: $500K (His 2005 buyout we paid)
Franklin: $2.4M
Meche: $2.55M
Nelson: ??? (I don’t have record what he was paid in 2005…but I think it was between $600K-750K)
Olivo: $316K
Reese: $900K (We will have a $300K buyout though)
Shiggy: $2.98M (We will have a $330K buyout though)
Villone: $2M
Wiki: $2.25M (We will have a $250K buyout though)
Winn: $3.75M
Total Freed Up Salary this offseason: $41.176M
BUT, we do have Sexson’s huge signing bonus to payout in 2006…all $6M of it on top of his 2006 base salary!
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Three questionable resignings this offseason?
1. Moyer (I say he resigns on a $3M + $3.5M incentive laden contract)
2. Franklin ??? (M’s only resign him for long relief)
3. Meche ??? (M’s could resign for same salary as 2005, and use as trade bait in 2006)
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One more thing that I would like to emphasize. During the Winter Meetings last December, I personally was listening to MLB.Radio when they interviewed Chuck Armstrong. I personally heard him state that the Mariners 2005 payroll would be set at $99M!!! AND, he said that they are willing to go over that and be in the RED…no matter what it takes…to get back to 90+ wins in 2005!
In addition to personally hearing Chuck Armstrong state $99M as our 2005 budget on MLB.Radio during the Winter Mtgs last December…Here is a link that you can checkout from the official Mariners site back on 12/16/2004:
seattle.mariners.mlb.com/…&fext=.jsp
“Mariners payroll is expected to be about $93 million — not counting the $6 million still owed to former third baseman Jeff Cirillo and catcher Wiki Gonzalez”
…AND Jarvis’ $500K buyout in 2005
Well folks, once again (4 years running) the Seattle Mariners payroll came in over $17M UNDERBUDGET in 2005!!! It was around $82M prior to dumping Villone & Winn this year in trades. So it could be closer to $20M underbudget in 2005!
Yes the Sexson/Beltre signings last offseason wet our appetites as fans, showing that they were indeed willing to spend money. BUT, they still came nearly $20M under budget for 2005 despite these two huge signings!!!
As fans, aren’t we getting sick and tired of ownership pocketing this money EVERY YEAR that they initially promised fans they would DEFINITELY spend on player salaries BUT DONT?!
I have calculated over $68M, since 2002, that the Mariners have come under budget (4 years combined)…that they didn’t put back into the team.
We have missed the playoffs for the past 4 years for no other reason than this…our FO Management & Ownership!
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I say that ownership OWES all of us fans a whopper of a year in FA signings/trades this offseason! I say that they keep the $99M payroll budget, AND roll the add’l $20M they saved this year…AND add it to the 2006 payroll budget…pushing the budget to $119M in 2006. We are the 2nd highest revenue team in all of MLB! The Yanks have the highest revenue team, spent $230M…not even counting the 40% luxury tax they will owe MLB this coming January for being over the luxury tax threshold for the 3rd offense…NOT even to mention the add’l $$$ Millions in revenue sharing they will have to fork over once again this December! NOT EVEN to mention that the Mariners were able to get a free Safeco Field…paid for by Washiontonians Tax Dollars.
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One last thing? I posted the same details this time last year when everyone was saying that we only had $15-18M to spend last offseason (INCLUDING FINNIGAN!). I posted all the contract info breakdowns, and people were responding telling me that I was nuts…THEN…Seattle signed back-to-back signings with Sexson then Beltre! And just prior to the Beltre signing, Seattle was still going after Delgado, despite already signing Sexson, and the discussion was that Seattle would put Sexson in LF.
Well, Florida is openly shoping Delgado now. AND with losing a quality pitcher like Burnett, they could very well decide to try and get out of Delgado’s huge longterm contract by trading for a pitcher like Pineiro with a 1yr contract.
I’m not saying that Delgado will be a Mariner in 2006. But, what I am saying is that the M’s have a TON of offseason money to spend whether it be for FA’s or for trades!!!
Sorry for the LONG post. But I thought it was necessary to correct and post a breakdown of our contracted player salaries for 2006. I hope this will enlighten everyone on the Mariner’s financial situation going into this offseason!!!
I’m not sure my above link will work, let me repost:
[deleted for extremely long text link which messes up comments]
“Mariners payroll is expected to be about $93 million — not counting the $6 million still owed to former third baseman Jeff Cirillo and catcher Wiki Gonzalez”
…Don’t forget Jarvis’ $500k buyout in 2005 we had to pay too.
Something else. Let me refresh eveyones memory right after the Sexson/Beltre signings. Right out of Bavasi’s own mouth we had a ton of money left to spend. They were going hot and heavy after Odalis Perez for $7.5M/year for 3yrs. But Perez resign with the Dodgers, and the Mariners stopped spending for the rest of 2005!
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/4346104p-4118192c.html
“Couple Beltre’s signing with the four-year, $50 million deal the Mariners reached with first baseman Richie Sexson on Wednesday and it appears as though Seattle might be done with its Christmas shopping early – by virtue of an empty pocketbook…Not so, general manager Bill Bavasi said. “We have money left,†he said.”
What I would like to see happen this offseason:
1. Sign Burnett in the $9-10M range over 4-5 years
2. Sign Millwood on a 4 year contract $7-9M/yr
3. Sign Matsuzaka whatever it takes (and remember the money it will cost to acquire him WON’T be coming out of our 2006 budget either!
4. I wouldn’t mind signing Brian Giles as a power LHB for LF for around $7M. I think he would do awesome at Safeco Field. BUT…if Delago is available in trade, lets finish the deal and pick him up, and move Sexson to LF…I’m Game…I’m willing to try that. We would have Ibanez as a Lefty DH for us. But Ibanez could share 50/50 time in LF with Sexson, and Sexson’s remaining 50% of the time could be split at 1B/DH with Delgado. That would keep everyone pretty fresh all year long.
5. I wouldn’t have a problem with resigning Franklin for $2.5M for 2006, as long as he’s long relief ONLY, and ONLY use him as a spot starter if one of our starters goes on the DL.
6. Resign Meche for $2.55M. The same salary as 2005.
TRADES?
Package Pineiro & Meche together to Florida for Delgado!
2006 ROTATION
AJ Burnett
Moyer
Felix
Matsuzaka
Millwood
Sandwich Moyer between hard throwing Burnett (104mph), and Felix (98mph), and that would be a pretty deadly 1-2-3.
2006 LINEUP
RF Ichiro
SS Betancourt
1B/DH Delgado
LF/1B/DH Sexson
DH/LF Ibanez
3B Beltre
CF Reed
C Rivera/Torr
2B Lopez
That would be a very balanced LHB/RHB lineup
Offseason Costs:
1. Burnett $9-$10M
2. Millwood $7-9M
3. Matsuzaka (not counted against our 2006 budget)
4. Moyer $3M + $3.5M Add’l Incentives
5. Meche $2.5M (To use in trade)
6. Franklin $2.4M (Use in trade to strengthen bench)
Offseason Trade:
1. Trade Piniero ($6.3M) and Meche ($2.5M) to Florida for Delgado
WOW, all within our $35M available money this offseason!!!
WHY Delgado? Remember that Bavasi was STILL going after Delgado after the Sexson signing!!! They were stating that Sexson would move to LF where he played in Cleveland. Also, checkout Delgado’s BA/OBP/OPS with every AL pitcher. He is a AL pitching NIGHTMARE, and crushes AL pitching. Now, with 1yr in the NL, and posting awesome numbers there too, would be pretty valuable with interleague play, as well as “if” the M’s made it to the WS against an NL team!
Bottom line though? I really think that Seattle will surprise us this offseason, like they did last year with the Sexson/Beltre signings.
Florida is openly shopping Delgado at this very moment. Would Seattle get in the running?! I’m NOT saying they would, but it sure is a nice thought especially considering this:
I really think adding Delgado through trade, would be a VERY balanced team. We could rotate Ibanez/Sexson/Delgado in those 3 positions of LF/1B/DH so they would have the following playing time:
Ibanez 50% DH, 50% LF
Sexson 50% LF, 25% 1B, 25% DH
Delgado 75% 1B, 25% DH
Everyone would be happy with their playing time! AND, we would add major offense to one of our corner OF positions in LF! And Delgado would be back in the AL where he just crushes AL pitching.
Burnett 9-10Million per year
Millwood 7-9Million per year
Are you kidding me? There is no way the top two pitchers on the free market will make that little.
Sexson in Leftfield for 50% of the games.
There is no way I want to see Sexsonout in leftfield, why would you even do that? Just play Ibanez out in left, Raul’s defense would be much better than Sexson’s I would guess.
IMO your ideas are a little out there.
Also, you’re assuming the signings of Matsuzaka and Delgado will happen. Matsuzaka will not post this season, via a variety of sources, and Delgado is highily likely to remain closer to his family on the East Coast.