Jacque Jones
Initially, I had planned on posting a full overview of what I would do to reshape the M’s this offseason if the world came crashing down and I was magically installed as the Mariner GM. As I tinkered with the roster, however, I started making decisions that were going to require some fairly in depth explanations. Like the Kevin Brown idea, for instance, which most of you hated even after I did an entire post on my train of thought.
So, rather than drop the full roster construction post on you at once without any explanation, I’m going to break down the bigger pieces into their own seperate posts. I’ve already addressed Brown as an option for a back-of-the-rotation starter. Today, I move on to adding that “left-handed sock” that the club has repeatedly referred to. And we’re not talking footwear.
With the trade of Randy Winn and the injury to Chris Snelling, the M’s are missing a left fielder who can take advantage of Safeco Field’s short porch down the right field line. Raul Ibanez’s defense makes him a prime candidate to DH, and with Safeco rewarding teams who have flycatchers who can chase balls in the gaps, there is still a good amount of wisdom in acquiring a player who actually has some skills with the glove. The perfect fit for the M’s would be an above average defensive player who swings from the left side and hits the crap out of the baseball.
Unfortunately, those guys just aren’t available. Brian Giles could potentially fit the bill, but he’s not likely to leave San Diego, is looking for a big payday, and is reaching the end of his career. So, assuming Giles and Matsui aren’t going to be realistic targets, especially with the team having to rebuild nearly the whole rotation, we’re looking for an opportunity to bring in a quality player who can contribute to the team without breaking the bank.
Ladies and Gentleman, Jacque Jones.
Okay, okay, I know, he hit .249/.321/.438 this year. Not exactly the big bat everyone was hoping for, is he? His plate discipline is legitimately terrible, and his .258 EqA places him as a league average hitter playing one of the easiest defensive positions in baseball. His offensive production the past two years is actually fairly similar to what Adrian Beltre put up for the M’s this season. And I don’t think I’m going to win anyone over by saying that acquiring another 2005 version of Adrian Beltre was going to save the Mariner offense.
Stay with me, though. I’m not insane. Really.
Take a look at these numbers over the past four seasons:
Vs Left: 608 AB, .229/.285/.365
Vs Right: 1510 AB, .277/.338/.472
Jacque Jones cannot hit lefties. At all. Since 2002, against southpaws, he’s drawn 37 walks and struck out 147 times. His line against left-handed pitchers makes him the rough offensive equivalent of someone like Jason Phillips or Neifi Perez. In other words, not anyone you want in your line-up.
But against right-handers, he’s pretty darn good. His line against righties the past four years puts him in the category of guys like Carlos Lee, Jose Guillen, and Shawn Green. When a right-handed pitcher is on the hill, Jones is a well above average offensive force, even when compared to other left fielders. You’d like to see a higher OBP, but the power is a legitimate offensive weapon that the team lacks. Jones has “left-handed sock”, if you will. But he only has it against 75 percent of the major league pitchers out there.
To be truly effective, Jones needs to be platooned. At 30 years old, he’s had plenty of time to make adjustments and show some improvement against lefties. He hasn’t. So he shouldn’t play against them. This puts a cap on his value, since he would begin 25 percent of the M’s games seated on the bench. However, that flaw in and of itself isn’t enough to disqualify him. Even if he only manages 450 at-bats next year while hitting .270/.330/.470, that’s worth approximately 25 runs on offense. 25 runs is a significant upgrade from what the M’s got from their left-fielders this season. Creating 25 runs with his bat would have made him the 4th best hitter on the Mariners this year.
However, 25 runs from a left fielder isn’t the kind of production you’re looking from in a left fielder, especially one who is going to command a multimillion dollar deal as a free agent. Thankfully, offense is only part of the Jacque Jones story.
We’ll be the first to admit that defensive statistics are flawed. When evaluating defense, we need to speak in generalities. We have a pretty good idea of who is good and who is bad, but we don’t have anything like the tools we do to evaluate offense production. The defensive metrics that have been developed based on proprietary play-by-play data hardly ever agree anyways.
But occassionally, they do. And in Jacque Jones case, they agree that the man is pretty freaking awesome defensively.
According to Baseball Prospectus, Jones was 12 runs better than an average right fielder this season.
UZR had Jones as being 11 runs better than an average left fielder from 2000-2003.
PMR thinks that Jones was worth about 9 runs over an average right fielder last season.
Lastly, David Gassko’s new stat put Jones at 23 (!) runs above average for 2004.
Keep in mind, all these stats are compared to the league average. Calculating replacement level for defense is a bit tricky, and we don’t have something like VORP for defense, but it’d be fair to say that all of the advanced defensive metrics make Jacque Jones worth something like 25-35 runs better than a replacement level defensive corner outfielder.
In other words, his defense is more valuable than his offense. And his offense is league average!
Jacque Jones is from the Mike Cameron school of undervalued players. They aren’t exactly the same type (Cameron actually walked and was otherworldly in center field), but the analogy fits as a blunt tool. Jones isn’t a great hitter, but he is a tremendous asset with the glove. The combination of his value added by whalloping right-handed pitching and playing great defense is a valuable, and generally underrated, asset.
After the 2003 season, the Mariners decided to take a huge hit on defense to make a minor upgrade on offense, and it cost them dearly. While the focus continues to be on adding “a big bat”, and fans clamor for a superstar hitter, the fact remains that acquiring a world class defensive left fielder who can also hit a bit will have a similar positive effect on the team’s ability to outscore their opponents. I’m fairly sure the comments will be filled with folks who simply want a big stick and don’t like the idea of Jones, because, after all, this team needs to score more runs.
In reality, however, the team’s problem isn’t that they didn’t score enough runs. It’s that they didn’t outscore their opponents by enough runs. Run prevention or run production achieve the same goal. The M’s have a chance to acquire a guy who, between the two, adds a significant amount of runs to the team. He just doesn’t add them all at the plate.
Okay, so, how much will Jones cost? He made $6.2 million this year after being arbitration eligible following last season, but before the injury to Jason Kubel, he was almost certainly going to be non-tendered by the Twins. So, heading into the 2005 season, his market value was assessed to be right around the $6 million mark for one season.
Look at some of the contracts signed by comparable players last offseason:
Richard Hidalgo: 1 year, $5 million
Jeromy Burnitz: 1 year, $5 million
Jermaine Dye: 2 years, $10 million
Moises Alou: 2 years, $13 million
Two years ago, the standard contract for a corner outfielder was 2 years, $6 million. That’s what Jose Guillen, Rondell White, and Reggie Sanders signed for.
The market for solid but unspectacular corner outfielders has been set pretty evenly the past couple of seasons; short term, mid-millions range. Jones overall numbers are dragged down by his poor showing against lefties and the Twins refusal to platoon him, so he may not even match what the top guys in his level from each of the last few classes have gotten. He’ll be looking for something like 3 years, $18 million, but more than likely have to settle for something like 2 years and $12 million. $6 million per year for a player worth between 4-5 wins? That’s a bargain, especially in the free agent market, where wins generally go for between $2-4 million apiece.
Now, if the M’s go through with my endoresement of Jacque Jones, they’re certainly going to have to acquire a platoon partner for him that can be expected to play well and get 200-250 at-bats a year. I’ll do a Reshaping The Bench piece at a later date, but to head off too many questions now, I’ll mention that a guy like Marcus Thames could be had for a song, and he’d be a perfect fit with Jones. Between the two of them, you’re not going to pay more than $6.5 million a year, you’re going to have a short term commitment, and you’re going to get something like 60-70 runs out of your left field platoon.
Jones is not a classic statistical darling, but for the 2006 Mariners, Jacque Jones is a great fit. At 2 years, $12 million, he’d be a steal for the M’s. He gets my vote to wear the Left-Handed Sock.
Comments
242 Responses to “Jacque Jones”
Well reasoned and thought provoking. Thanks for giving me something to chew on.
Very interesting.
I hope people looking at this will remember a) that this is unorthodox thinking becuase in-the-box thinking is NOT going to get you what you want because of b) the market and players available is not that great.
This is a direct lineal descendent of MONEYBALL….looking for undervalued players that can help you.
Thanks, Dave. I had already concluded that a platoon was the way to go in LF, and you filled in one of the pieces.
An added point about platooning. When you have the other half of the platoon sitting on the bench, you also now have a decent possible pinchitter available, particulalry to counter if the other manager uses a reliever who is opposite-handed from the starting pitcher.
So the platoon idea also has the benefit of upgrading the bench. And it might also force Hargrove to decide he really can get along with only six guys in a bullpen.
Considering that the M’s have every other position covered, are you looking at Jones as the only offensive upgrade? Because I don’t believe it’d be enough to bring the M’s into contention, assuming a realistic projection of next year’s pitching staff. If you agree, who would you be likely to replace? Reed? Betancourt? Lopez?
What about signing Jones and trading for Dunn by giving up Reed and a pitcher? Makes us older, but I wouldn’t mind that lineup. I guess I’m a little pessimistic about Reed panning out.
plus he comes with a ready-made nickname
I’ll say it again, I want a shopping list handed to Bavasi before things get too far underway this offseason.
Great piece. I especially like the point that the M’s need to look at platooning, which is something that seems not to have occurred to them as they put together this past year’s team. Not only could they improve production on the (relative) cheap, but it also would give them some hitting options off the bench.
Having said that, is there anything in Hargrove’s track record that indicates that he would use a platoon wisely? I haven’t looked it up, but my gut feeling is that he hasn’t been inclined to do it much. Can you shed any light on that? Obviously, it wouldn’t do Bavasi a lot of good to go out and get some platoon partners, only to have Hargrove fail to use them properly.
Dave, what about Matt Lawton as a potentially cheaper alternative? Less sock, but more walk.
Any suggestion for the other side of the platoon? A guy who hits lefties and has good glove?
Sort of a Reed Johnson type.
Speaking of left-handed sock …
I, for one, hope that Bavasi will pick up the phone to Ed Wade and find out how much of Jim Thome’s freight they’d be willing to pick up. I am not suggesting that we take his entire salary, and I’m not suggesting we trade away top prospects, but if he’s healthy that’s about as much left-handed sock as we could dream of getting. I’m not saying do it at any cost, I’m just saying, Bill, explore the studio space on that one.
Lots of plusses — reunited with Hargrove, he could spell Sexson at first, he fits the nice-guy mold that Lincoln says is more important than the ability to turn on a fastball ….
Reactions?
I should add — I meant pickup Thome as a DH, and leave Raul out in left. I think this thought first occurred to me when I saw Morse DHing in the waning days of the season.
Love the analysis and the platoon angle, but I have to agree with the Hargrove question about using a platoon wisely. He hasn’t shown us that he knows how to use a bench — then again, the FO hasn’t shown him that they can put together a bench.
I would guess that a good platoon partner in this case (can play solid LF and hit LHPs at above league avg.) would be pretty easy to find via FA or trade, and therefore would come at a relatively cheap price as Dave alludes to. Heck, maybe even one of our kids could fit that description? Don’t have the stats …
Hmm, interesting. I wouldn’t have thought of Jones either, but I see your point.
8 – Eric Byrnes! (Yeah, yeah. But I see Jacque Jones as basically being Byrnesie in reverse. About the same age, ability, and platoon necessity.)
How about Eduardo Perez in LF with Jones? Sure, his defense is likely ‘Ibanez’ish but he has shown in the past he hits the crap out of lefties. He even took The Big Unit deep (twice?) this season. I don’t recall him making a high salary either, even when he left St. Louis for St. Lou Pinella.
Jim Thome: the new Ryan Howard.
How is Morse vs. strictly lefties?
Eh, looked it up. Not a formidable platoon.
Just bring back Griffey.
Nice analysis and I like the idea, although I would hope we could get him for a bit less than 6Mx2.
I’d still rather see Adam Dunn in LF, even though it’ll cost talent, but I’ll move Jones in there as a good plan B.
Either way, I’d like to shore up the LF spot ASAP so they can figure out how much money they’ll have for SP early on.
BTW, Dave, any thoughts on Chad Tracy? Would Arizona part with him or is he too valuable?
Morse doesn’t hit anyone, and he’s hardly a plus glove anywhere.
At best, Morse is looking at a bench career, and only if he improves his defense. But he’s probably a better hitter than Willie.
Following up on Reed Johnson, I was checking out Toronto’s free agents.
There aren’t any.
Not a bad idea, really. Goes back to the old pitching and defense wins ballgames adage with a little platoon offense mixed in.
Now who should we get for his platoon partner……..
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm???????
How about we sneak a guy back from the A’s……..none other than….
Hiram Bocachica!
Plays great “D”…..and in his limited time is actually decent against left handed pitching……..
OK, OK! I just wanted to say his name out loud as I typed it. Gotta be one of the coolest names in baseball……
It’s sad that I’ve figured out how to do an effective platoon for my fantasy baseball team yet a major league manager can’t.
So, I never make these kinds of comments, but…
Great post. Well reasoned, very convincing.
#20: Of course, in order to be able to execute an effective platoon a manager has to have the necessary complementary piece on the bench. ;O)
The traditional explanation is that players don’t like to be platooned. They all think they can hit all pitchers.
And yet, some teams do fine. Toronto’s been platooning Catalanotto and Johnson for a couple of years, and they don’t complain.
Speaking as someone who didn’t like the Brown move you suggested (I wouldn’t go so far as to say hate it- I could see the logic but just thought you were overstating his upsde and understaing the downside), I like this one. It would help us in terms of flexibilty.
I also note that Mike Morse’s split were better against LHP (with much better BB/K ratios), if we don’t get another platoon mate, but I like the idea of Marcus Thames as well- and personally, I’m in a “buy low, sell high” mode with Morse, where trading him while he still has some fairly shiny numbers, like Franklin in ’03, makes sense.
Would it fix all the problems on offense? No. But keep in mind we’re not going to have a black hole at C next year, 2B, CF and 3B are likely to be better, and I think the offense can go from grim to average- which is about all we can expect at this point.
#18 I don’t know, Evan, if Morse packs on 20-25 lbs this winter, he could solve the power problem in left field….
Brilliant Dave. Jones/Thames will mash! And you gotta love that defense Jones brings.
How about this as a platoon partner?
Bengie Molina
He hits LHP very well. When a LHP starts, Molina catches and Ibanez plays LF, sitting Jones and Torrealba. Gives us a solid backup catcher too and should be pretty affordable.
Others:
Eduardo Perez indeed hits LHP well
Jason Lane from Houston
An aging catcher who’d lose a footrace with Edgar.
Hmm, tempting…
This is an interesting idea, certainly worth pursuing. BTW-Jacque Jones isolated OBP of .70 this year is actually the highest of his career and he walked 11 more times this year than any other time in his career. Perhaps he’s learned a little patience?
Anyhow, I still say shoot the moon and go after Dunn if at all possible. I drool just thinking of Dunn & Sexson hitting back-to-back.
Also, I’d rather see Bavasi go after Brad Wilkerson.
Oh yeah, just wanted to state that if we played 06 with the same lineup we ended 05 with, I expect that lineup to score around 725 runs. Throw in Jones and we’re looking at 750 maybe as high as 775 as a team.
Would you rather have Ojeda as your other catcher? Or do you think Rivera should be on the team? And nobody pays catchers to run.
Dave, nice piece.
I actually thought about a platoon myself (even considering Jacque Jones as a decent target), but ultimately decided you can’t judge the quality of the platoon until you see both halves of it. If it is somebody like Thames for $500K-ish, that’s fine — great, if you can get someone with Jones-like defensive abilities (that’s not Thames; for that matter, he’s not great offensively against LHP — only a .222/.317/.417 line vs LHP this season, though .797 OPS vs LHP the three years before this). I’m pretty well convinced that this FO would spend at least $2-$3M/year for the other half of that platoon, and if then you have $8-$9M for the platoon as a whole, I’d lean toward giving that or a little bit more to a more complete offensive player.
I guess what I am saying is I have no confidence in the FO to build a viable platoon for a reasonable amount of money . . . and I share the skepticism that Hargrove would properly use it if they did. But I am open to the idea. Very open.
Dave, do you really mean the following?
“Even if he only manages 450 at-bats next year while hitting .270/.330/.470, that’s worth approximately 25 runs on offense. 25 runs is a significant upgrade from what the M’s got from their left-fielders this season.”
I don’t think 25 runs is ANY upgrade over our left fielders. Over replacement, yes. However, Winn/Ibanez is significantly better than replacement. As I look at it, signing Jones and a lefty-masher might just get us back to the start of ’05, with Winn in left. Just trading defense for offense.
Looking at WARP, Jones vs. Ibanez is a close to a push. The question becomes, could you leave Ibanez in left, and get a better DH than Ibanez for less money than Jones plus a platoon partner?
Of course, if we want to be creative. We could also call Bowden (I like Wilkerson but sounds like he’s not likely to be moved) and see if Ryan Church is available…….seems Robinson played him sporadically down the stretch once Church hit a bit of a slump…..then pretty much turned him into a platoon with Byrd when he was picked up……..
Church might be available…….he’s relatively young (27), plays a solid OF with a good arm…….and could develop into a real steal. He raked in AAA last season…….
Just more food for thought…..
33, you forgot to include Jones’ defensive abilities. We gain a lot in defense by having Jones in LF, even over Winn.
I have two questions.
Is there any evidence that players like Jones, who have been an everyday player for most of their career, would sign a contract to be a platoon player?
Would Hargrove have the cajones to stick to a platoon policy? Or would he run his veteran out of the dugout into more and more outs?
I like Jones’ defense, and you could put up with his liability against lefties if he were the final piece of a championship puzzle.
But I doubt a) a player signs a big contract only to play 75% of the time (unless they’re Rickey Henderson and they’ll sign anything that resembles a contract) and b) that there exists a manager who will stick with a strict platoon and put up with the griping from one or both players.
Does this ever happen? I’m just ignorant in this regard.
I don’t necessarily agree that Hargrove wouldn’t know how to platoon if one could be established for LF. Look at what he did with Reed this year in CF. Seemed like every time the M’s faced LHP Reed was out of the lineup this summer. So if the FO actually went out of their way to put a platoon together for us in LF, I am thinking he would use it pretty much robotically the entire year. My greater fear is that the M’s come up with nothing in their search for the left-handed sock, and decide that the sweet swing of Greg Dobbs will have to fit the bill. He did homer in his first at-bat as a Mariner you know. I saw it on television.
Dave,
Given Jones’ stats, how do you factor in that he plays 81 games on turf, where ground balls don’t slow down like they do on grass? Would this affect his numbers much? Is there such a way to decipher these numbers, like through home/road splits?
Dave, should Jones’ runs-prevented contribution be whacked by 25% if he’s platooned? Don’t know that it would change the overall thinking, but I didn’t see an adjustment there.
I’m not sold on a platoon situation; certainly not as plan A.
Well, reagardless of Jacque Jones, all I can figure is that both Mike Morse and Greg Dobbs don’t deserve to platoon with one another in left field at Safeco Field; hell, neither one of them should be on the Seattle Mariners 40-man roster.
I propose…..JUSTIN LEONE as the platoon partner to Jones. He’s free, has some outfield exerience and absolutely mashes the crap out of lefties.
That being said, I think Dave is severely undervaluing the M’s LF production this year. Winn and Ibanez isn’t a terrible combo to have out there.
I’d rather stick Ibanez out there and pry Thome out of Philly. Outfield defense only goes so far. There is a diminishing rate of production out there. The impact of a great LF is likely going to be diminished by the presence of Reed, Betancourt, and Beltre.
I can agree with that. I’d like to see how the market for certain players plays out, and who is available for trade before I would be willing to say “This is my answer; this is what I will pursue.”
Failing all else, I’ll be praying for Chris Snelling. I still don’t expect us to contend next year, so a hole in left field isn’t going to leave me sleepless.
“The impact of a great LF is likely going to be diminished by the presence of Reed, Betancourt, and Beltre.”
In addition, when does our #1 pitcher actually need his left fielder?
I like the Jones idea. My one reservation is his relatively high SO rate and his low OBP. I think this makes him more risky and prone to prolonged slumps than a patient hitter. But this is somewhat counterbalanced by something Dave didn’t mention, his speed on the basepaths.
Our home park is one that rewards teams that play good defense, kind of parallel to Coors Park that rewards teams that have sock! My gut tells me that we can field a better defensive team than our division counterparts, so at least we can have a decided advantage against those teams during home games.
Hargrove’s potential inability to effectively use a platoon isn’t a convincing argument to me. If Bavasi can’t get Hargrove to use it right, then Hargrove should be fired. Hargrove answers to Bavasi, not vice versa.
The Winn-Cammy-Ichiro! outfield was a thing of unparalleled beauty. Jones would be at least the equal of Winn in left, and while Reed isn’t Cammy, let’s be fair, who is? Point being that a superb outfield can make up for a lack of team run production (as Dave spelled out for us above) by preventing the other team from scoring runs. Here’s where Ibanez in left leaves me underwhelmed. Combine an outfiled of Jones-Reed-Ichiro! with an infield of Beltre-BETANCOURT!!!-Lopez-Sexson, and that’s some solid D! As far as behind the dish goes, it’s all JoeJessica. I’m much more inclined to give Ojeda a chance at backup instead of Rivera, but perhaps that’s what spring is for. Unless, of course, someone is dying to give us a solid starter for a shaky backup catcher. Watch me as I fail to hold my breath.
Well hes certainly an option.
However, I don’t think hes any better than randy winn.
going a bit OT, what was the (BP?) formula someone posted in an earlier thread about Beltre’s season & how much the M’s would end up ‘overpaying’ him? I can’t recall enough of the specifics to pick it back up in a search….
I agree with 47, isn’t Jones basically just the equal to Winn and we decided that wasn’t good enough?
It’s interesting that as we ponder our LF situation for next year, Randy Winn posted a ridiculous .359/.391/.680(!) line in 231 at-bats with the Giants. Surely there’s going to be considerable regression, but there’s a good chance our LF next year will underperform Randy Winn’s season next year.
I agree with 47, isn’t Jones basically just the equal to Winn and we decided that wasn’t good enough?
Career ISO.
Jones – .176
Winn – .137
vs. RHP
Jones – .194
Winn – .135
Both guys bring plus defense, a decent average and little patience. The difference is in their power. Just don’t play Jacque against lefties. . . .
How can you say that he’s not any better than Randy Winn? Even with his aberration of a home run surge with SF, he has hit 69 career home runs versus Jones’ 132 during a nearly similar amount of career games. When you look at OPS, the difference isn’t as pronounced (Jones is only 9 or 10 points better), but you have to remember that Dave is advocating Jones in a platoon role. The stats that I am providing incorporate all those crappy AB’s versus LHP. Dave clearly stated that Jones is the equivalent of Neifi Perez versus LHP.
The other thing to consider is the defensive difference. Jones does not have a wet noodle arm like Winn. His range and defensive prowess is a tad better as well. The other to consider is that Winn would *never* hit 14 HR’s in 230 AB’s with us. If he was going to do that, he would have already done that in the 3 years that he was here. So you’re not even comparing apples to apples. You can’t compare Randy Winn from SF with Jacque Jones. You really need to compare the Seattle version of Randy Winn with Jones.
As a long-time resident of Minnesota, I’ve been familiar with Jacque for a while now, and I agree exactly with Dave’s assessment of his abilities. The Twins’ should have realized three years ago that he wouldn’t ever hit lefties, and they’ve definitely wasted real platoon opportunities.
I am wondering whether Jacque’s defense is so good as to price him out of the corner outfield market. Even though his defense wouldn’t be quite as good in center, I think his offense would more than make up for it, and there don’t seem to be a ton of centerfielders on the market this year. Also, if San Diego is at all interested, they would have a leg up, as Jones has expressed interested in living near his hometown. Considering his reputation as a good clubhouse guy, I wouldn’t be that surprised to see him sign a 3 or 3+ year deal to play centerfield somewhere.
So, while I agree he could help, I’m just not so sure he’s going to come as cheaply as you suggest.
I’m totally off-topic here, but I just heard Peter Gammons say, “Jason Lane had almost a 900 OPS in the second half this year.” Word for word.
jason
Also, a word of caution. If you do get Jones, you have to concentrate on the results, not the process. The man takes some of the most brutal at-bats in baseball (though his worst are definitely against LHP), but still manages to get the job done. He’s awfully frustrating to watch right up to the point where he comes up big for you.
Here’s the scenario where depending on the platoon kills you: you are trailing in a close game, 6th inning or 7th inning, LHH who can’t hit LHP comes to the plate. LHP comes out of the bullpen to face your LHH. It’s “too soon†to take LHH out of the lineup: you may need his bat in later innings to win you the game. So you leave him in and give away an out.
I have seen enough Red Sox games over the last few years to see this scenario with Trot Nixon dozens of times. It works for the Sox, sort of, but it sucks to see a guy go from a power threat to an automatic out when the bullpen door opens.
Jason,
Post-All Star .305 .354 .536 .890
Peter was right.
I wasn’t saying I thought he was wrong; I just don’t think I’ve ever heard “OPS” on television before. Gammons uses it in his columns, but it still surprised me.
msb,
It’s Nate Silver’s Marginal Wins Formula, which measurs salary against WARP3. Because of Beltre’s defense, his WARP3 was quite good and against the high price of marginal wins in market value (that is, what they cost in FA), Beltre underperformed his contract by a mere 800K. In other words, Pokey Reese hurt the Ms more (in terms of not earning his keep) than Beltre.
Oh ok, I heard Peter say that and went “no way Lane was near .900″ and then I looked it up and was shocked. I gave up on the guy in May.
Gammons using OPS didn’t faze me. Good thing he wasn’t sitting next to Kruk though, John’s head might have exploded.
Dunn and Sexson is huge white-boy version of Manny and Ortiz.
I think Dave is right to talk about 25 offensive runs being an improvement over what we got from LF in 2005.
Assuming Ibanez plays DH full-time next year, his stats shouldn’t really be counted for what the M’s got in production in LF. Instead you should tally up the stats for the other LFs (Winn, Doyle, etc.) plus the other DHs (Dobbs(ugh), Spezio (double-ugh)). Together those four took up almost exactly the number of at bats a full time regular would get. Their combined VORP is a stunning 7.5. So yeah 25 offensive runs, while league average, would be a step up. Any defensive improvement is icing on the cake.
LB,
Actually, Jones’ platoon disadvantage hasn’t hurt the Twins in close situations over the last few years. Check this out: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4486
Read whatever you want into the word “clutch,” but the main thing I took from that article is that Jones has been one of the best hitters in important situations over the last few years. (Check out the last table.) At the very least, it shows that so far in Jones’ career, he hasn’t killed his team by being susceptible to bad matchups late in games.
I’m still all about the Carlos Pena idea. Pena has Platooned much of his career.
.848 OPS vs. righty’s this year. .811 for the career.
Spell Sexson at 1B or DH and have Ibanez roam left when this occurs. Ibanez is pretty good defensively, really.
Dunn intrigues me. I love the Dunn. Him and Sexson could be a really killer though. Two huge strikeout candidates and two huge double play candidates.
But that’s the game.
#52 are you adjusting for park factors? How many HRs would Winn have hit playing the last 4 years in the Metrodome instead of Safeco?
nice article. Even the crazy/unlikely to happen ideas on this site are still well reported and thought out.
Hargrove has in fact used plenty of platoons over the years. He’s not adverse to platoons, he just doesn’t like giving guys days periodic days off otherwise.
A real LH All-Star would be great, but as you say there are few of them, and none really available. I think Jacque Jones is a good idea as long as the FO understands that he’s a component, not a structural member. I’ve always liked his D. In many ways, he would be a perfect 4th OFer. . . . Randy Winn with power; I could get to like that. The team can afford him, too.
it’s not a bad idea overall, but the team also has to consider the continuing drop in attendance. A big name will do more to fill the seats than Jones will.
I’m a big fan of the Ms acquiring Dunn; by trade, as a free agent when he comes up [don't think he's staying in Dysfunction Junction, OH]. But he’s a DH if ever there was, not a LFer, so there’s no conflict with acquiring J. Jones.
I want _NOTHING_ to do with Jim Thome. Period. Philly can eat that one, now and forever, it’s not like they didn’t know what they were getting.
I disagree with the notion that Ibanez is anywhere near good defensively in LF. Replacement is where I’d peg him.
Tom, what big name?
Dunn, Matsui, Chad Tracy, Ryan Howard, Aubrey Huff, Dave Delucci, Brian Giles, Brad Wilkerson, Nick Johnson. Not huge names, but generally regarded as better hitters than Jacque Jones.
I have a hard time believing that any of those names over jacque jones makes joe casual buy extra tickets. Dunn or Matsui maybe, not any of the others.
All re Dunn. The closest comp is Jay Buhner. The Manny and Ortiz comparison aren’t based in reality. He’d be a nice pickup and a good stick for about 7 years. Hopefully our managers over that span wouldn’t be strikeout averse.
There’s no indication whatsoever that Adam Dunn is even remotely available.
I do hope that, for every move I suggest in this series, the response isn’t “well, okay, but I’d much rather have (insert MVP candidate here).”
#59– thanks…
Grant said: “Dunn and Sexson is huge white-boy version of Manny and Ortiz.”
think about the sheer amount of real estate that would be needed if you had both Dunn and Sexson on a team…
More wishful thinking than anything else, I think…why WOULD the Reds give him up?
Methinks you hope in vain…
Dave I think your statement is a bit too strong. There are indications that the Reds are open to trading an OFer and since they’re highly committed to Pena, it seems that Dunn is the most likely to be dealt if they’re looking to move an OFer and get back solid players.
It may not be likely, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
So far I like the names you’re suggesting… Kevin Brown and Jacque Jones. The M’s need to look for reasonably priced MLB talent, if possible, while continuing to try to develop farm talent with fingers crossed.
From talking to a few insiders over the past week or so, the name I’m hearing is Griffey. I guess the thinking is that his acquisition might stem the tide of season ticket cancellations, he could play some center and some DH and the club would also be able to sign a power hitting DH/LF type.
The same people are telling me that they think the Reds would take Pineiro as part of the deal as they are still anxious to move
Junior — they cite the fact that Pineiro has the best record and ERA in interleague play over the past several seasons. Considering that the Pineiro contract is pretty much the only bad contract the M’s have left (not counting players that are gone, like Spiezio and Cirillo), I suppose that wouldn’t be terrible. Jr. is signed for three more years so I’d hope Cincy would pick up more of his salary than just taking Pineiro’s contract for 2006…
Hey Dave,
I like the idea of a platoon with Jones, but what do you think of Chad Tracy? With Conner Jackson and Tony Clark, theres no room for him. Last year he hit:
.308 .359 .553 .911 with 27 homers and 34 doubles.
Thats some left handed sock we need. He only hit:
.236 .307 .416 .723 vs leftys, but thats a very small sample size of 87 ABs. He’s also only 25 years old and getting better every year. He’s been playing left field for the DBacks also so he could be a long term solution. I think hell also be making the league minimum. What do you think it would take to get him also?
There’s no indication whatsoever that Adam Dunn is even remotely available.
He was commonly mentioned in rumors circulating at the trade deadline. I think that would count as an indication.
Reds management downplayed some of it, but that’s to be expected, and I’m not aware that they specifically denied willingness to trade Dunn. At the same time, undoubtedly some of the rumors were coming more from people who would like to acquire him, much like us.
However, there are some significant factors that might make him available, including his arbitration status, pending free agency, and the Reds’ outfield surplus if Griffey is healthy. I don’t see anything wrong with discussing him as a target, but if so we should get a realistic notion of what it would take to acquire him.
I do hope that, for every move I suggest in this series, the response isn’t “well, okay, but I’d much rather have (insert MVP candidate here).â€Â
Say, is Ryan Howard available?
From talking to a few insiders over the past week or so, the name I’m hearing is Griffey. I guess the thinking is that his acquisition might stem the tide of season ticket cancellations, he could play some center and some DH and the club would also be able to sign a power hitting DH/LF type.
So, basically, this is Pokey Reese all over again, except with a far better player and instead of being on the hook for one year, being on the hook for three.
Piñeiro isn’t such a bad deal compared with Milton and Ortiz (who, like Joel, are flyball pitchers and note they are getting killed by Cincy’s ballpark). I also think that based on his last part of the season, there’s a decent chance the 2003 Joel of 200 IP and an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 is back, which would be perfectly OK at one year for less than 5 million. Giving that up for the bigger question mark of whether Griffey can stay in a lineup for 140 games, and a much larger salary commitment to an older but better player? Eh, not so much. Pass. I’d rather keep Pineiro and sign Jones to a 1 or 2 year deal for decent money (and for close to what we’d pay Griffey).
Note that “for close for what we’d pay Griffey” = for BOTH Piñeiro (shade less than 5 million in 2006) and Jones (4-6 million in 2006).
After 2006 it might not be that- but we’d have the chance to dump Piñeiro if he’s Bad Joel, and Jones would likely only be under contract through 2007.
Players over 35 haven’t worked out so well for the M’s lately (Boone, Ole, and even Edgar fell off a lot his last year), with the exception of Moyer. I’m not convinced Junior hanging around through age 39 is going to work out well, even in the short term.
84 — how are you going to pay Pineiro less than $5 million when he’s got a guaranteed contract for $6.3 million for next year?
“I do hope that, for every move I suggest in this series, the response isn’t “well, okay, but I’d much rather have (insert MVP candidate here).â€Â
Maybe you just don’t dream hard enough?
I mean, seriously, despite Jacque Jones being a good fit to play LF for us on paper, it doesn’t exactly excite the loins. At most, JJ is good for about 23-25 HR. That’s not left-handed sock in my opinion. That’s left handed loafer.
Why shouldn’t we shoot for an Adam Dunn through trade? The massive upswing he’d bring (literally) would far outweigh Jacque Jones. And would we really be so terrified of what we’d give up for him? Our farm system isn’t exactly bristling with major talent, y’know. Look at the Future Forty and tell me none of those guys are expendable for someone who could deliver a 40HR 120RBI punch?
And just for the record, my first choice is Brian Giles, who I agree should only be had for at most 2 years. But if we had a chance to snag Adam Dunn and didn’t have to give up Felix to get him, Christ let’s go for it.
just based on my own personal observation of jacques jones, who ive always enjoyed watching, he seems to hit a large number of his homers to the opposite field gap, which could mean an enormous drop in power if he played 81 games at safeco. and after looking up his spray chart, ive found it to not be as substantial as i thought, but substantial nontheless. this year he hit 30% of his metrodome homers to the opposite field. thats no small number, but im not necessarily concerned about the number as much as i am the possibility that hitting in safeco might cause him to change his hitting approach and destroy him completely a la cirillo, spiezio, etc. i am a firm believer after the mariner free agent signings of the last 3 years that money spent on anyone who will be expected to provide “sock” should be spent only on bona fide power threats who can hit the ball 500 feet (like sexson) or players who will require only minimal cash considerations but may develop favorably. a great suggestion for this second type that has been thrown around here was for carlos pena. personally, i would still much rather pursue a joe dillon trade (for dh/1b) if carlos delgado really isnt going to be moved. i dont think the marlins have anywhere else to put him, and his prospect status is tarnished because of his age. he must be able to be had for something reasonable. there are plenty of others to be had of his ilk, but he seems to be the best of the bunch besides howard. the others ive found are calvin pickering, rick short, kevin orie, and randy ruiz. all are old for their levels, with orie and short being ancient, and i would assume one of them would be able to be had for someone like meche and maybe a little cash. and of course if any of this came to pass, ibanez would have to play left. he isnt really that bad in the field- -3, -1, and -2 fraa the last 3 years.
Dave argues well in favor of Jones, but for once I don’t feel truly convinced. It’s the low OBP thing. I don’t think it’s a lack of power killing the M’s so much as the plethora of easy outs.
Like every other M’s fan, I’m sick to the teeth of seeing the Mariners face some unheralded scrub starter with an ERA around 6 and give him 9 outs on about 25 pitches. Compared to the 2000 and 2001 Mariners this team sorely lacks guys who work the count and get on base on way or the other (Edgar, Ole, Cammy, A-Rod in 2000, Ichiro with his 380+ OBP in 2001). In 2005 Sexson, Ibanez, and Ichiro were the only regulars with OBPs above .350; that sucks.
Are power and the guady numbers are still overvalued, and is OBP still undervalued? I’d prefer to read about some potentially undervalued left-fielder who doesn’t go yard so often but gets on base 4 times out of 10. Does such a person exist? I certainly can’t think of one.
I’m going by the numbers here:
http://ussmariner.com/index.php?p=2054
Piñeiro comes in at just under 5 million.
Jones also only has 4 career home runs in 112 at-bats at Safeco Field. His numbers are modest at best for the past few years, and he played in the homerdome.
I was convinced at first, but I think I would rather look elsewhere.
Jon…
please tell me that you’re kidding. Griffey isn’t jus a 3 year contract. The guy is owed something like 3 mil a year for the next 25 years. That would be a very stupid burden for the M’s to put on themselves.
Griffey is my hero and all, but I just don’t think that it would be right. Yeah yeah, I know…he was the best CF in the NL this year.
best offensive cf in all of baseball in just 128 games. his defense is awful though.
Typical Idiot:
Giles barely has more power than Ichiro at this point in his career. There is certainly no guarantee that he’d hit for more power than Jones.
please tell me that you’re kidding. Griffey isn’t jus a 3 year contract. The guy is owed something like 3 mil a year for the next 25 years.
No, that’s not quite right- a bunch of his annual salary from 2000-2009 is deferred into 2010-2034. We certainly wouldn’t owe for anything deferred BEFORE we traded for him (unless we were insane and agreed to it). We’d presumably only owe for the share that gets deferred from 2006-2009.
The thing is what you do in that case is you (you being the team) purchase an annuity up front over the 3 years Griffey plays for you that yields the appropriate amount, and boom, Bob’s your uncle- you can translate the cash going forward into expenses against current annual player salary while Griffey’s under contract to you (kind of like buying an annuity to fund your retirement). So it’s nothing to freak out about.
I agree with #87. Jacque Jones doesn’t do anything for me. A guy who’s never driven in 100 runs (or even 90 — his career high in RBI is 85). As someone earlier said, he’s basically Randy Winn with a little more power and a better arm (although he was the one that made that pathetic throw in last year’s Division Series vs. the Yankees that allowed NY to tie the series instead of the Twins going up 2-0).
Jacque Jones is a guy you sign to a cheap contract (between $2 mil and $3.5 mil a year to a one or two year deal) AFTER you’ve exhausted other free agent options and trade possibilities for “left-handed sock” — and yes, those trade possibilities should include Adam Dunn. The Reds are going to have to trade one of their four outfielders (nobody is going to take Casey’s salary) and they desperately need pitching. If the Mariners “baseball people” identify a player on another team that they think would be a great fit here, they should try like hell to acquire that player, even if it means overpaying in terms of prospects. Very few players around the league are truly untouchable and wouldn’t be traded under any circumstances (usually about 2 or 3 per team).
I’m sorry that Dave is disappointed that everybody doesn’t agree with his call to sign Jones and Kevin Brown, but that’s to be expected. People have opinions and they’re going to differ. Yes, some of us want the M’s to at least try to trade for guys who are going to make a difference in the team’s record and get the fans excited about coming out to Safeco.
And finally, Jones will be 31 in April. Scott Spiezio was 31 when the M’s signed him to a 3-year, $9 mil deal. Other than HR’s, Spiezio’s stats in the two years before he came to Seattle are actually better than those of Jacque Jones his last two years with the Twins:
Spiezio’s BA the last two years in Anaheim: .265 and .285 (Jones has hit .249 and .254 the last two years). Spiezio drove in 83 runs and 82 runs in his last two years with the Angels (Jones has driven in 73 and 80 runs). Slugging percentage: Spiezio (453, .436), Jones (.438, .427). Yes, I’m aware that most players don’t fall apart at age 31 and there are probably particular reasons why Spiezio fell flat on his face once he got to Seattle. Neverheless there are parallels there.
I’d like to know why Mariner fans should be any more excited about acquiring Jones (at twice Spiezio’s annual salary) than they were when Scott Spiezio was signed prior to the 2004 season?????
I don’t care if he’s driven in 70 runs or 150 runs. Runs batted in is the worst stat in baseball. I would never make a judgement on whether to get a player or not on his RBI totals.
Because he, like most Padres, plays in an absolutely gargantuan ballpark that has to be the best pitching friendly confines in baseball.
Giles splits (home / away):
Home: .267 / .378 / .417, 6 HR, 12 2B, 31 RBI.
Away: .333 / .463 / .545, 9 HR, 26 2B, 52 RBI.
That’s… pretty dramatic right there. That boy hates PetCo Park. Even more interesting is that his BB / SO ratio is about 3:1 on the road (70:24), while about 1:1 at home (49:40). I don’t know how that relates, or even at all. But that IS pretty damned interesting.
Oh, and btw:
I just want to go on record that I liked the Kevin Brown idea. I just don’t like this one.
It feels as though Dave really overanalyzed everything going for that “middle ground” fit. Settling for Jacque Jones instead of pushing the envelope of his imagination. Sure, Jacque Jones is a realistic acquisition, but considering that anything can happen in an offseason, I say shoot for something unrealistic, but still possible.
Hell, anything’s possible. But acquiring Adam Dunn is not unrealistic either. Nor is Brian Giles.
I don’t care what the “rumors” say, I’m not buying that a Griffey trade is really being talked about. The unlikelihood of the M’s wanting him is one thing, but can you really believe that Griffey would waive his 10-5 rights to accept a trade to Seattle? First of all, he has stated that he will only go to teams that train in Florida. Even if you think that he would overlook this out of some goodwill to Seattle (quite unlikely), I’m sure that he would not be eager to go to a team that just lost 90+ games the last team years, he having been out of the playoffs for 8 years now and still looking for the World Series.
I’m not on the Griffey bandwagon really. But if it was to happen that we could get him reasonably priced, I might consider it.
I personally endorse this guy if we can pry him away from the Hanshin Tigers. I know he’s “old” but those stats are dream like. I can dream can’t I.
137 GS: .328 BA, 38HR, 118 RBI, 114 Runs, 171 hits (34, doubles, 3 triples), 95 Walks, 77 Ks, .432 0BP., Bats left, throws right, and plays LF, 37 years old. Name: Tomoaki Kanemoto. Plays for the Hanshin Tigers
It does seem that the Mariners could really use another 40 HR threat in their lineup and either DH, LF or CF are the only places to put that player. Jacques Jones (even as part of a platoon) probably falls short on that. I definitely like the idea of a left-field platoon however. It makes for a much stronger bench situation to have a pinch hitter who is playing on a regular basis specifically because of a solid bat against either LHP or RHP. Why we have a Dave Hansen on the team is beyond me. People never seem to appreciate the value that Mark McLemore and Stan Javier brought to the 2001 team as quality bench players who would give you 200+ good at bats. I definitely second the idea of trying to find a .375+ OBP in this lineup.
I am a big fan of this idea. I didn’t even have to read the whole post, I’ve been in support of Jones ever since I’ve known he was going to be a free agent. Too bad now if I post something on my own blog I’ll look like a copycat. Oh well.
I like it.
It has nothing to do with people agreeing or disagreeing with me on Jones. I just wish people would think a bit more critically. “I read some Dunn trade rumors on a message board, so I believe he’s available” isn’t critical thinking.
When I did the Kevin Brown post, the response was “I’d rather have Kevin Millwood or Jason Schmidt.” Well, yea.
Now in the Jacque Jones post, the response is “I’d rather have Adam Dunn.” Again, obviously.
But try to live in reality, folks. The plan, as I’m presenting it, is reasonably possible to expect. The covet-every-other-teams-best-player stuff is, well, not.
After trading Winn, the Ms spent the rest of 2005 season platooning at least the suggested 25% in LF and it did not show a mass of “stocking”. But Morse and Ibanez still both hit lefties much better than Jones does and only fall short in slugging against RHP, which makes JJ’s only saving grace of hitting RHP for XBH a marginal talent on a team that lags in every offensive category imaginable, particularly when we look at his poor plate discipline, and at the age of 30+ I think we can.
The argument of having his bat off the bench is a valid one, but not at that price.
I hate to say this bit if in reality, Jones is the best the M’s could get, then reality sucks. Go Adam Jones 2007!
I’d rather have Manny Ramirez that Jones
OK, seriously. I like Jones. And if we can get him a bit below his fair value — because his offensive totals include his horrible numbers against LHP and the market doesn’t evaluate/value defense well — it’s a good signing. And I think guys who hit LHP well and play LF are a dime a dozen so a platoon partner is easy to find.
The problem I have is that this offense is horrible and we’re already locked in at 7 positions for next year. I can’t see how we improve at catcher, so LF/DH is the ONE position where we can improve the offense. Given that I don’t think Jones is a big enough gain.
We have ~$25M to spend. If we sign Millwood/Burnett for $10M, $2M goes to improve the bench, and $5M to Jones, we have $8M left for what? Moyer and Kevin Brown? And if we don’t get Millwood, Burnett, or the Japanese pitcher, we have $18M and nothing to buy. Given the construction of the rest of the team, I’d rather spend $13M on a $10M LF or $20M on a $15M LF (Manny Ramirez) than have a “deal” on Jacque Jones because we have a better player. Money in the owners’ pockets doesn’t help us win.
Two years later, I have no idea how the Red Sox feel about Ramirez and his contract, but if they’re willing to move him and take on salary in return we should be talking. Jones is a good plan C if we can’t sign or trade for a STAR hitter. And he’s a lot better than Morse/Dobbs/Choo
.
By the way, as a final word on Giles’s BB/K ratio at home… has anyone seen the hitter’s eye at petco? Its horrendous. The shadows that are caused by the rim around the stadium suck too. Very reminiscent of complaints by the mariners circa 1999.
Dave, earlier you floated the idea that the Mariners would look to add the “left-handed sock” via trade. Then you wouldn’t elaborate on any trade possibilities. Now you come back and just say we should take Jones on the free agent market.
I grant that the free agent crop isn’t that appealing, and Jones may be as good a fit as we can find there. But how about at least discussing possible trades (including cost to us)? Or giving us an idea of what the alternatives are? All you’ve done, both with Brown and Jones, is argue why they could be useful players for us. You haven’t discussed the other options you considered before settling on these two, which would allow you to say why you think they’re not just useful, but the best – and most realistic – fit. So it shouldn’t be surprising that everyone responds with, “Yeah, but what about…?”
And with Adam Dunn, the idea that he might be available doesn’t just come from wishcasting on other message boards. It was widely rumored in the mainstream media at the trade deadline. What we need, in terms of critical thinking, is an assessment of what it would take to get him. It might not be worth what we’d have to give up.
When I did the Kevin Brown post, the response was “I’d rather have Kevin Millwood or Jason Schmidt.â€Â
My reaction to Kevin Brown isn’t “I’d rather have Kevin Millwood.” I can see why Kevin Brown is an intriguing option, but he would be nowhere near enough when we have three holes in our rotation. Even healthy and pitching every turn Brown is only one guy, so we need to look into people like Millwood in addition to Brown (or, to most people, the other way round). Similarly, nobody should assume we can fix our pitching problems by throwing money at Millwood and stopping there.
The problem I have is that this offense is horrible and we’re already locked in at 7 positions for next year. I can’t see how we improve at catcher, so LF/DH is the ONE position where we can improve the offense. Given that I don’t think Jones is a big enough gain.
This is apparently the pervasive thought. The pervasive thought is wrong.
The M’s catchers in 563 plate appearances this year combined for a VORP of -14.7. The M’s got 15 runs of offensive production less than replacement level from their catchers this year. A platoon of Torrealba/Ojeda next year should be about replacement level. Given no change at all, that’s 15 runs added.
The M’s second baseman combined for a VORP of 8.2. A reasonable projection for Jose Lopez next year is about 25.0 with certainly a possibility of exceeding that. But, based on a full season of Lopez manning the position next year, the M’s should be up about 15 runs at second base as well.
The M’s left fielders gave them a VORP of 16.0. Assuming my projection of 25.0 VORP or so for Jones next year is accurate, that’s another 10 runs.
Assuming no improvement whatsoever from Reed, Ichiro, and Beltre (who, as a group, I’d expect to improve significantly, but I understand it’s debatable), the M’s offense would be about 40 runs better than it was this year.
Give them 40 more runs this year, and they score 739. The White Sox, they of the best record in the AL, scored 741. And they play in one of the most offensive friendly parks in the league.
The M’s offense isn’t horrible. The M’s don’t need to ignore responsible roster building and “get a big bat at all costs”. I realize everyone is frustrated by the offense we saw this year. That doesn’t mean that the offense we’re going to see next year is doomed without some lumbering slugger, though.
The M’s are one solid hitter in left field away from having a league average offense. Jacque Jones is a league average hitter.
I like the thought of Jacque Jones and a platoon partner (or some other like combo). Most of our money needs to be spent on pitching this year I think.
Jacque Jones (or similiar under-valued LF)
Marcus Thames
Kevin Millwood or AJ Burnette (Unlikely I think but I can hope)
Kevin Brown (or similiar low-cost low-risk high-reward pitcher)
Money to fill out the bench and not leave such blackholes on it.
I think that would be a very nice off season.
Like almost everyone else on this board, I do not think signing Jacque Jones will provide the necessary boost towards a competitive offensive output for the 2006 Mariners. And, probably, getting some of the calibut of Adam Dunn or Brian Giles may get us closer than JJ. However, on this issue, we should also thinking about 2007 and 2008, and thinking about what out put JJ, Dunn and Giles will produce, in conjunction to what resources we give out for them. I think JJ (plus platoon mate) for 5-7 mil X 3 years is very a worthwhile idea. With Dunn, we have yet to really discuss what kind of package it will take to get him, and then we must consider the fact that he’ll be arbitration-eligible soon, and could have a $12-16 million-a-year contract after next season. Giles may be cheaper than that, but am I the only one who envisions Giles, a few years from now, being just a shell of his former offensive self? If the M’s are looking at next year to contend, then JJ isn’t the (only) answer, but if they’re looking at 2007, then maybe the FO may actually have the patience to wait for the right deal to come along for the slugging DH we will need. If the M’s decide to go pitching-heavy this offseason, then I think JJ will be a great pickup. IWith an improved rotation, a league-average offensive might just be enough for next year, too.
And, not to pile on Adam Dunn (who is obviously a good player), but there’s issues with him, too:
Home: .274/.418/.639
Road: .221/.359/.446
Vs Left: .197/.321/.463
Vs Right: .273/.421/.580
This isn’t new, either. From 2002-2004, Dunn’s road numbers were .230/.361/.475, a pretty far cry from his .262/.396/.589 numbers at home.
He’s also, by almost any measure, one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. BP has him at 12 runs below average. UZR has him at 20 runs below average. PMR has him at 10 runs below average. Gassko’s metric has him at 32 runs below average. The defensive stats have him as bad as they do Jones good.
So, if you assume that Dunn’s offense is worth about 60 runs in Safeco (his VORP was 54.5 this year, so I’m being generous), and you whack off 10-15 for defense, than Dunn is about a +45 run player.
Jacque Jones, as demonstrated above, is about a +35-40 run player.
Defense counts, especially in Safeco.
Is pursuing Hideki Matsui out of the question? Wouldn’t the M’s esteemed ownership make a fortune out of marketing Ichiro/Godzilla in Japan, to the point where it’d be worth expanding the payroll?
Granted the money would be better spent on pitching if there was something out there, but the free agent pitching market looks awfully lean.
I like the platoon idea from an economic standpoint if the team needed to save money but this team can’t cry poverty.
Coupla thoughts:
1. Sure, Dunn’s a guy we’d like. But you have to propose a realistic plan for acquisition if you’re going to seriously advance the idea the M’s should pursue him.
Dunn’s a premium player. The Reds are going to want three top prospects for him, probably two of which would be pitchers. I don’t think the M’s farm system has a pitcher that would get the deal done. You need a grade A SP prospect to even think about it. We don’t have a grade A SP prospect (aside from Felix).
A more realistic target would be a less elite player (think Aubrey Huff or Wily Mo Pena) or an older player with a big contract (Griffey, etc).
2. The M’s offense is not horrible. We’re not going to win games with offense alone, but the situation’s not utterly dire. Add a decent player/platoon in LF and maybe a Torrealba/somebody platoon at C and the offense will be OK.
3. Jones as a platoon player is worth considering. We’re going to need flexibility this offseason. There’s no obvious right move to make. I’d love to trade for a bigger bat, but what if we can’t? A Jones/someone platoon isn’t the very best solution, but it’s not the worst, either.
4. Let’s not give up on Morse just yet. It’s a small sample size, but he put up a decent .111 ISO and about a 1:1 K:BB ratio against lefties. And he’s a decent athlete who might be able to transition to the OF.
5. Let’s not forget about Doyle. Sure, he’s cursed with injuries, but it sounds like he’ll be back sometime next year. That would be very helpful.
You don’t just spend money to spend money though. If this team needs pitching, which I think it does, you don’t just through money at a hitting idea that makes less sense economically. That can screw up the team for years to come.
Sheesh I suck at tags…
I like the idea of bringing in a good defensive player.
I like the idea of looking for value by platooning guys.
I like the idea of looking for value in a second-tier guy instead of emptying the farm system for someone like Dunn.
I just don’t like the idea of Jones.
The money he will command (2 years, 12 mil) is a lot for someone like him. The guy has almost no upside, so the numbers you are projecting are about all you could expect from him. His defense is good, but finding decent defense in LF is not something that a team has a spend a lot of cash on.
It wouldn’t be an aweful move, but it is not real creative.
I would rather see the M’s try to fill this need via trade. LF is a pretty easy place to add production. There are several teams out there with a lot of OFers (the Reds, the Nationals, the Devil Rays, the Twins, ect). The M’s have a lot of depth in their bullpen, and they could afford to trade someone like Mateo. Mateo plus a prospect could be sufficient to get someone to fill that need, and proably a lot more cheaply.
One guy that I would love to see the M’s go after is Brad Wilkerson. The Nationals have a lot of bats at the corner OF and corner IF positions, and will probably move a few. Wilkerson is everything that Jones is (lefty bat with power, plus defense), but he also brings good plate discipline and a lot more upside. He had an off year this year, but he would be a really good addition. Other guys that the Nats have are Ryan Church (who is a similar player to Wilkerson) and Nick Johnson. Johnson would have to DH, but he gets on base a lot and has lots of upside as well. Having him DH could help keep him healthy.
Another guy that has been rumored to be available is Justin Morneau. Why the Twins would trade him is beyond me. However, there are rumors that the Twins might trade him for Cory Koskie (yikes!). Morneau is another guy who would be best at DH. However, he has bigtime power potential, if a lefty hitter, is young, and has lots of upside.
I would like to see the M’s get creative. Even if they make a trade for a guy with little or no ML experience. Some team is going to have a decent OF prospect who is really blocked, and is willing to trade for a real good, cheap reliever. Bavasi just needs to make a ballsy, creative move.
Stop putting in the cite stuff. Just do your blockquotes like a normal tag and leave that other weird stuff out of there.
114-Yeah, but Dunn’s a great fantasy player!
Is pursuing Hideki Matsui out of the question?
Hideki Matsui is virtually certain to resign the Yankees. This illustrates one of the issues with talking about potential free agents – when you’re actually ready to play the market, it will already have shrunk significantly because a number of players will have re-signed with their present teams. Cleveland is aggressively working to keep Millwood, for example, although I expect Boras will push him to at least see what the market holds before signing.
any possibility of going after Geoff Jenkins?
he could possibly be a very good fit, although he is a major injury risk.
He’s a pretty underrated hitter, and also appears to be very solid in the field.
As for realistic acquisitions, Toronto is looking to increase their payroll by about $35 million this offseason. They have zero free agents, however, so they’ll need to trade some guys.
Is there anyone there we’d want?
Brad Wilkerson:
2005 WARP: 4.5
Jacque Jones:
2005 WARP: 5.1
Wilkerson’s a league average defensive corner outfielder. He’s not even close to Jones with the glove. His bat is about 20 runs better, and his glove is about 10 runs worse. In salary, he’s going to cost as much as Jones (he’s arbitration eligible), plus what you have to give up to acquire him. Mateo and something isn’t going to get you close to one of these type of players.
If you want to trade for someone rather than sign Jones, feel free to explain how the extra 5-10 runs a year is worth giving up two of Adam Jones, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Matt Tuiasasopo. Because that’s what it would take.
I’ll keep my young talent, thanks.
From the numbers I’ve seen, Jenkins’ fielding seems to be declining with age and I wouldn’t describe him as any better than average. Certainly not as good as Jones, and he would be a lot more expensive. Less need for platooning, though.
95, ec — Griffey’s contract calls for $12.5M a year through 2008, and has an option for 2009, but $6.5M of that yearly salary is deferred over something like 15-20 years on very favorable terms. You’re right that the M’s (at the very least) should not be on the hook for any of the deferred salary from 2006-2008 (or ’09; I’m not sure what the terms of the option are), and there’s the additional decent point that $6.5M in virtually interest-free money, paid 10+ years out, is worth far less in today’s dollars than it sounds . . . but you’re still paying probably something close to $10M/year for three years and an option for a chronically-injured guy’s age 36-38, maybe even age 39, seasons.
I am as sentimental for Junior as the next guy, but short of the Reds paying ALL of the deferred salary on that contract, it is time to just say “no, thanks.”
BTW, same goes for those pushing Thome. His contract is even worse — he just finished the third year of a six-year, $85M contract that runs through 2008, and has an option year kind of like Boone’s that automatically vests based on plate appearances made in ’07 and ’08. He just turned 35. He’s guaranteed something like $46M over the next 3 years, and with performance-based incentives could make as much as $56M. And, as you know, he had NOWHERE NEAR the kind of year Griffey did in 2005.
Finally, in response to #94, PLU Tim, I would reiterate the point TIF made in retort to Tim’s comment that Brian Giles has no more power than Ichiro at this point of his career. I posted something (that I cannot find now) a while back about Giles, and PETCO. As TIF noted, PETCO is a severe pitcher’s park: it suppresses runs more severely than Safeco (where 1.000 is neutral/average, PETCO is 0.837 while Safeco is 0.946), and home runs in particular are really suppressed (0.691, worst in baseball, and worse than Safeco by a margin of nearly 35%). Despite this, Giles’ away split is great, and shows no signs of decline, and he hit for a career high in doubles this year (38) in a park that suppresses them (0.895) pretty significantly.
I don’t think you can make the case that Giles’ power is on a par with Ichiro’s now, at least on a park-adjusted basis, though I grant you if he came here he would not be what he was in Pittsburgh and would pretty closely approximate what he gave San Diego in the first year or two. I am very wary of signing any 35 year-old player, particularly one who wants big $$ and a longish commitment. However, I would let him know the M’s have interest, and if he gets to a point where he starts thinking DH’ing now and again might help extend his career, and he is willing to accept a 2-year deal (with maybe a 3rd year option), I think that is worth pursuing.
Oops, the sentence “. . . the M’s (at the very least) should not be on the hook for any of the deferred salary from 2006-2008 . . .” should say “the M’s (at the very least) should not be on the hook for any of the deferred salary from before 2006-2008 . . ..”
Dave-
I’m convinced by your reasoning on Jones. A solid replacement for Winn at the plate while bringing great defense to LF. And competent to step into CF or Rf if needed.
Only the GMs know who’s available in trade for a reasonable price. (Why do you think Thames is available? Why moreso than Dunn?) Logic says that Cincinnati desparately needs to unload salary this year, while also needing a lot of pitching. With one surplus outfielder, that might make them good trading partners for the Ms–hence the Griffey or Dunn scenario. The Ms could use either one (but at what price?).
hmmm. if Pineiro goes in a trade we have one pitcher to fill 5 rotation spots, and that one is limited to 150+ innings.
from general reading over the last year it sounds like everyone asks about Dunn, and O’Brien ignores them — at the end of July he even talked about discussing a multi-year deal with Dunn in the off-season; Dunn, Kearns & Pena are all arbitration eligible and Kearns & Pena have both expressed interest in moving to get some more playing time.
FWIW, last thing out of the Dayton Daily News: “When O’Brien spoke of next year’s outfeld, he spoke of Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr., but pointedly omitted Kearns and Pena. At this point last season, O’Brien said the team was content to go to spring training with those four outfelders because of the uncertainty of Griffey coming off serious surgery. “Griffey has shown when he is healthy he remains an elite player,” he said. “Dunn has put up consistent numbers in run production for two years now.” Does that put Pena and Kearns on the available list? “We’re more likely to be openminded,” O’Brien said. “It isn’t something we have to do, but there has been significant interest in our outfielders.”"
The GM that takes Pineiro off our hands should be fired.
What’s Jim Bowden’s number?
If the Reds are planning to keep Dunn….could the possibility exist of us signing Jacque Jones for LF, and acquiring Austin Keanrs to DH? (And then perhaps trading Ibanez for pitching.) Depending on how much Cincinnati values Kearns, I think that may be an optimal course of action…..
Thames is a 28-year-old former minor league free agent who Detroit valued so much they left him at AAA for most of 2004 and 2005. He hit under .200 in limited action when called up, so Detroit may very well drop him from the 40-man roster. He should be very available. Why would we want him? He hits lefties well with decent power, he can play some center if needed, and would earn near the league minimum salary. A Jones/Thames combo would provide a realistic, cost-efficient, short-term solution in LF, leaving plenty of payroll to address the rotation. Good work, Dave.
Ibanez is more valuable to us than he is to other teams. Trading him would be throwing away value.
I wouldn’t object to having Kearns. I’d play him in left against any lefty pitchers, plus whenever Felix is pitching (he doesn’t allow fly balls).
Dave,
Love the post, love the logic. What do you think the odds of Bavasi doing something like this are? The way I see it I think he’s going to try to do another huge move to appease the general fans. While I totally agree with your assesment of the offense and how much we stand to improve with just minor tweaks, I think Bavasi will want to ‘send a message to the fans’. I’m hoping he does that wisely and perhaps with pitching though. I think Jaque Jones is a fit for us on many levels, I’m just not sure the team will see the light.
Jerry, RE: Rumors of Morneau’s availability
Have you seen anyone in the Twins organization mention him as available? Probably not. There’s no way the Twins would trade Morneau for Koskie, not matter what the media want you to believe. This is simply an rumor started by someone in either the Toronto or Minnesota media who was disappointed this year either with Koskie’s ability to stay healthy or Morneau’s ability to hit for average or much else the second half of the season. Also, there’s no indication that there would even be room in the Twins’ budget for much, certainly not all, of Koskie’s remaining contract.
I think this is what Dave is talking about when he said, “`I read some Dunn trade rumors on a message board, so I believe he’s available’ isn’t critical thinking.”
You could send a message to fans by signing either a LH bat or a top starter…wouldn’t need to do both. And I think fans would be keener on a good starter.
Whether or not you get him is another question….at this point, all bets are off as to who goes where…
I agree, the message can be sent to the “average fan” through the signing of a big name pitcher, but I don’t think it’s that necessary in Seattle. And plus-what big names will Seattle fans respond to? Maybe Matsui, but that’s not likely to happen.
Fans have come in droves for the last two years to watch garbage. Smart moves that lead to a winning team will be enough for the fans. I really believe that. If I’m the marketing department, I hype up the “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet” angle with Felix and Betancourt.
why is everyone so high on picking up a “big name pitcher”? at first glance, the starting pitching market looks weaker than even last year’s, and last year’s market gave carl pavano, wright, and benson pretty substantial deals. i was happy that the mariners lost out of the bidding for pavano and wright and even happier when they stayed out of the big name pitcher market completely afterwards. obviously there are pitching needs this year, but those needs will be better filled by middle of the pack guys who will get paid like middle of the pack guys (esteban loaiza, kevin brown). there is no premiere starting pitcher on the market that i can see, yet because of the demand for pitching, multiple pitchers will be getting paid $10m a year. here is a quick rundown of the available pitcher that i assume will draw the most interest-
Burnett- perceived to be the top fa starter on the market, and while he is worth 3yrs at $7-8m a year, will likely get closer to $10m a year/4yrs. injury history and comps do not inspire confidence required for that kind of investment.
Washburn- low so rate, average bb rate, even go/fo rate, .295 babip. Will probably be considered one of the top 3 or 4 starters on the market because of a low era, but I can’t figure out how it happened. All in all, the mariners desperately need more strikeouts from their starters, and he can’t provide that. Good comps, but I would steer clear if he requires more than $6m a year/2 yrs, and he will unless there is market uncertainty about his fragility.
matt morris- has gotten worse every year since 1998 in dera, strikeouts have declined every year since 2001. was worth less than 2 wins this year to the cardinals, and somebody is going to overpay dearly for him.
left off is millwood, who is probably the best option, but he seems to be likely to sign with cleveland. even if he doesnt, the bidding war that will ensue will more than likely put him beyond the realm of reason. pitching is far too unpredictable to get involved in these kinds of bidding wars for high risk talent, the mariners would be better served by looking for less expensive but well thought out options and hoping safeco takes care of the rest. obp and iso slg should be what the mariners spend the bulk of their $25m on this winter. neither lopez or betancourt managed a .300 obp this year, so even drastic improvement to .330 still leaves both of them lacking. the difference needs to be made up with a solid .400 from dh or lf , depending on who is acquired.
Great write-up. This is the type of analysis that actually adds value, as opposed to “We need to trade for Super-Slugger X”. That said, two comments/questions…
- Jones’ aged (30) doesn’t worry me all that much. He doesn’t have any real injury concerns. And he’s exactly the type of player who typically ages well – athletic with both speed & power, along with great defense. The comparison to Spezio doesn’t fit.
- One odd aspect is that Jones is an EXTREME groundball hitter. He’s one of the few guys that doesn’t hit many fly ball but hits a decent amount of HRs. He historically has hit just as well on turf as on grass, but it seems that a move to home grass would negatively impact him. Of course the opposite may be true – I seem to remember that Safeco’s real impact on hitters is that it really depresses outfield non-HR hits. Would a player who tends to hit a lot of lot of ground balls but still hits a good amount of HRs be less impacted by Safeco? Probably splitting hairs at this point, but still.
The M’s offense isn’t horrible. The M’s don’t need to ignore responsible roster building and “get a big bat at all costsâ€Â. I realize everyone is frustrated by the offense we saw this year. That doesn’t mean that the offense we’re going to see next year is doomed without some lumbering slugger, though.
The M’s are one solid hitter in left field away from having a league average offense. Jacque Jones is a league average hitter.
I think that needs to be stressed, a lot- things aren’t as bad as they seem. Yeah, the M’s won’t be looking like their 2000-2001 version in 2006, drawing tons of walks, and hitting enough everything else to be leading the league and scoring 900+ runs. But they don’t have to have Ken Griffey mashing 50 HR’s to be a decent offense next year, either- they need to have solid position players, no major offensive black holes, and not have such a horrible bench.
I would rather see them add a mid-level starter of the like of Loaiza or Suppan ON TOP of a top-level signing like Millwood or Burnett, and sign Jones as the major offseason offensive pickup, than end up with a package of, say, Kevin Brown, Brian Giles and Burnett, much as I love the walks Giles gets.
Batgirl has brought attention to another worthy cause today:
shutuptimmcarver.com
I dunno….it may be that the “big name starter” may give you the best value for signing, considering the thinness of the pitching free agents. (Think about that for a second).
obviously there are pitching needs this year, but those needs will be better filled by middle of the pack guys who will get paid like middle of the pack guys (esteban loaiza, kevin brown)
You’re joking on that last part, right?
Kevin Brown is, at best, a 4-5 “hey, let’s spin the roulette wheel” ala Paul Abbott or Aaron Sele. Yeah, you might get lucky (like we did with Aboott in 2000-2001- but note we didn’t get a lot of halthy years out of him), and there are indicia that he’s not as craptastic as he pitched in 2005. He also has almost no chance of making it through an entire season healthy, his peripheral stats (K/9, K/BB, G/F ratio, etc.) are down a lot from his last healthy year in 2003.
I don’t think a staff of, say, Moyer/Pineiro/Loaiza/Brown/Felix is what we should be shooting for. Yeah, I put Felix at 5, because I suspect what will happen in 2005 is they will use him out of the pen the first couple of weeks, like they did to Joel in 2002, to hold his IP down under 200 without having him miss August and September starts. I could MAYBE see the logic for, if things get too expensive up at the top, going for Suppan and Loaiza together- you’d end up with Felix and a 4 interchangeable 3-4 pitchers capable of 200 IP in a park and defense that would help ‘em out. That might work. But I’m getting REAL tired of bottom-fishing for this year’s Miracle Recovery.
EC, I think you’re mad.
The M’s are desperate for good news.
Felix Hernandez is one of the best stories in baseball this year, and the best news the Mariners have had sinced Ichiro signed. I’ll be shocked if he’s not the game one starter next year.
Euch, the idea Jeff Suppan just depresses me.
There’s no way they don’t have Felix start the home opener.
I’m not 100% convinced that Millwood is all that better than Morris. Why is that everyone’s assumption? Yes Millwood strikes more guys out, but Morris has a better K/BB. If you take a look at their numbers, I don’t think we should be dismissing Morris.
I’ve gotten the impression that most people aren’t interested in Morris. Why is that? I’m curious to know.
Morris is terrible and hurt.
Or, if you prefer, Morris, post all-star break:
88 IP, 113 H, 16 HR, 21 BB, 44 K, 5.32 ERA.
That Morris stat line looks a lot like Pineiro but with more home runs because he’s not pitching in Safeco.
I wouldn’t be dead set against JJ, but I think it’s kind of early to be setting the sights low. I think OBP is probably the more important part of OPS, and his isn’t very good even against righties. I don’t know that Jones is guaranteed going to be a good sport about platooning.
Millwood’s whole career has been up and down though. I just don’t see why he’s all the rage.
I’m not saying the M’s break the bank for Morris, he’s definitely not what he once was, but isn’t he worth pursuing at some level? I dunno, maybe not. I assume the biggest issue is that we could get a Loazia a lot cheaper.
Matt Morris, right now, is barely a major league pitcher. He’s basically Ryan Franklin with a bad shoulder.
Millwood’s career has not been up and down. He’s been consistently above average with brief dalliances with complete excellence. He’s never been anything other than solid to great.
Solid to great? Above average to excellent? That’s up and down to me. Semantics I guess.
To be perfectly honest, I don’t like any of the pitchers in the FA market and really hope Bavasi is careful with what he does there. I’d be completely fine with a couple of mid-level starters, and Jones. Let someone else overpay for these pitchers.
Or a trade of course. I keep forgetting about that.
Dave, I am interested in seeing the organizational context you are placing these moves in. While all these moves, reasoned separately, are quite logical, we lack the glue that holds them together.
My main questions:
1. What level of success are you shooting for? Is Bavasi in a “get to the playoffs or I need to find a new job” mode? Or is he just tryinng to gradually improve the team without making any long-term commitments? Is this year 3 of a 10 year rebuilding plan a la the pirates (god I hope not)?
2. What is the number you are working with for free agent acquisitions? It seems there is a range from 10 (finnigan, I know)- 30 (optimistic posters) million that the M’s could spend in the offseason, where do your projections fit into that?
3. How do you plan to explore the trade market, or do you? It seems to me that anyone outside MLB organization (gammons, stark, you name it) has a very difficult time predicting trades. While you have a great deal more contacts than I, is any trade talk at this point unbased speculation, or are there desirable players that are legitmately on the trade market at this point. An example of the difficulty here was saying the M’s should trade for Austin Kearns, and then the Reds being loony and keeping all of them.
As always, thanks for the time and the insights. Finally, I think Jacque Jones for 2 and 12 is a great signing, although it seems like 2 and 10 might get it done to me.
Geeeeeez, Jacque Jones. Not exactly making me want to rush in my deposit for season tickets. If we sign Jacque Jones to a multi-year deal this offseason, we will be wanting someone else in the LF position the following offseason, but won’t be able to get them because Jacque Jones has parked his Stopgapspecial in the long term parking. Then we will be stuck with the worst offensive outfield in baseball yet again.
I think we have to put Raul in LF again, and find some lefthanded monster for the DH
Kevin Brown and now Jones. No. No. No. These two choices are predicated on the two being better than they were before. We can pull stats to support your argument and stats that would support you are incorrect all day long. The longer question: Is this better than we have now? I say, no. I would rather take a chance on Morse or Bubela rotation than brining in another retread. We all know the northwest is a ‘no man’s land’ when it comes to players. We have to either overpay for talent or trade for it. That is why our payroll has to be high. Dumpster diving is not going to work here unless the player does not want to be in a media spotlight or is from around here (local product).
“1. Dave said:
October 6th, 2005 at 1:28 pm
Matt Morris, right now, is barely a major league pitcher. He’s basically Ryan Franklin with a bad shoulder.”
Let’s just look at his stats:
First off Morris was hurt in 99 and 00’, but let’s just look from 01 and on. Last basically 5 years. In 5 years Morris has started 156 games.
2001 34 starts; 22-8 record; 3.165 era; 192 innings
2002 32 starts; 17-9 record; 3.427 era; 202 innings
2003 27 starts; 11-8 record; 3.76 era; 172 innings
2004 32 starts; 15-10 record; 4.72 era; 210 innings
2005 31 starts; 14-10 record, 4.11 era; 216 innings
He is a horse. We are not going to get a #1 starter, do we really need one with Felix? Morris will fill the void in the rotation, a guy who wins and eats innings. There is no reason not to take a look at him.
Ya he looks like he is on the verge or triple A ball, hell he should be throwing in the independent league, why should the Mariners take a look at him………….
The fact is Morris is a winner. There is no telling what kind of numbers he could put up in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Dave, do some research before you blast a guy you know nothing about.
Moneyball, people, moneyball.
Matt Morris = Aaron Sele circa 2002.
Are people not looking at stats?? When ahs Ryan Franklin and Aaron Sele ever put up comparable numbers to Morris over a given time span of more than one year??? Neither of them have been able to do what Morris has over the past 5.
#159 – “Morris is a winner”. Yeah, might that have something to do with the Cards’ offense? Morris was bad in 2004. This year, he got off to a great start, and then absolutely collapsed in the 2nd half. He couldn’t strike anybody out. And it wasn’t just the numbers – he lost control of his curve ball and people were just mashing everything else. I’d take Millwood over him in a heartbeat. Morris is just not a gamble worth taking, unless he’s an extreme bargain. But I’m sure you’re right that Dave “knows nothing about” Morris.
just one more set of stats for you. Lots of people love the WHIP. Over the past five year lets look at a few names mentioned above. found out each guys average WHIP over the past years was and listed below.
Franklin ==> 1.3086 WHIP
Moyer ==> 1.273 WHIP (not mentioned above but our most consistant guy this year)
Millwood ==> 1.284 WHIP
Morris ==> 1.262 WHIP
HMMMMM I see something here……. I don’t mean to make anyone angry but calling this guy out as a bad option……The numbers just do not support that.
in comparison Clemens ==> 1.1894 WHIP, and whats even nastier is his WHIP from just this year 1.008
No one here uses WHIP as any kind of evaluator of talent.
Morris is a bad option for anyone. If that offends you, tough.
Dave it doesn’t offend me, it just disappoints me that you cannot see talent when it’s presented to you. Narrow minded people like you are what’s wrong with a bulk of today’s sportscasters. You have brought nothing other than your own opinion to the table as to why Morris is so bad. I want to hear why?? Did you talk to him? Is there something I am missing here? Tell me why he is so bad. And don’t use that stupid comparison to Ryan Franklin that’s just moronic.
Since when does no one use WHIP? That’s new to me
Matt Morris has put up DERAs of 5.32 and 4.98 in the last two seasons.
Over the same two seasons, Ryan Franklin managed a 4.88 and 5.06.
Franklin’s combined PRAA over the past two seasons: -20
Morris’s combined PRAA over the past two seasons: -28
I think I’d rather have Franklin than Morris, even if Morris weren’t injured.
I know the offseason is a time for optimism, but I think it would be wise to be agressive about improving the offense, because there is a real chance this offense declines next year. Our three best offensive players (Sexson, Ibanez and Ichiro) are all in the decline phase of their careers and Ibanez and especially Sexson are injury liabilities. Jones might be the solution if we can repeat or exceed this year’s performance, but I don’t think we can assume that. With that said, given the list of possible players the M’s can add this offseason, I don’t know of a better solution.
And seriously, NO Griffey, he may be my favorite player of all time, but bringing him back would be an astounding blunder.
I think what some of us here is failing to realize is that, over the past 5 years, Matt Morris has morphed from a really good pitcher, into someone who produces Ryan Franklin-esque numbers. As much as I liked Morris at one time — and still have a few bubbly thoughts of him coming here to Seattle and returning to his peak abilities — I think it’s obvious he has to be very low on the M’s shopping list of starters. I think committing anything more than 2 million to him is a mistake. They all can’t be Jaime Moyer, after all.
Our pitching in 2005 was far worse than our hitting.
Amd, as Dave mentioned, we can reasonably expect Beltre, Reed, and Lopez to improve as a group.
Travis: Look a little deeper into the stats. Specifically, look at Morse’s post-All-star break stats. In the second half of last season, his Ks went way down, his walks went way up, and his HRs went through the roof. He’s not the same pitcher he was in his good years. He’s 31, his health’s a major question mark, and he’ll probably cost at least as much as a guy like Loaiza.
I’ll admit I am a bit of a homer for Morris, that being said, my over point was to totally disregard him is foolish. He has produced and at least his numbers show he still can. Again let me say we are not getting a #1 here. We are getting a guy to fill out a rotation that ahs many holes. Morris is a guy who eats innings, around 200 over the past 5 years, and gives you a serviceable ERA. Put him in a pitcher’s park for half his starts and boom I believe you can get a guy, cheap, for 15 wins or so. A least in this Fans opinion and I think the numbers I presented support that.
I have to admit, Matt Morris intrigues me, but the numbers put up so far do not inspire much confidence in him. But I have only seen small partial numbers put up. Dave has done great research in the past, so I’ll take his word that Morris has begun to fall apart as a pitcher and will have to reinvent himself to become a worthwhile addition. Travis -Big Daddy-, even your numbers suggest that Morris is getting worse over time, though I’ll agree that there doesn’t seem to be much of a risk of injury (unless there is information I am unaware of). The DERA and PRAA (numbers I’m not very familiar with) suggest he is pitching like Ryan Franklin, which is a cause for concern. Any other comments about his other periferal numbers (K’s per 9 innings, BBs per 9, etc.)?
As for Jacque Jones, he would be a solid acquisition for the M’s, and an upgrade over what we already have. There don’t seem to be a lot of options for the outfield right now, so I think the best way to begin is by replacing the players we don’t want with better players, and Jones would definately accomplish that. I do think that the M’s should go get a big name, but any contract more than 5 years does scare me.
DERA is defense-adjusted ERA, and PRAA is pitcher runs above average. Both Clay Davenport creations, and both try to remove both defense and park effects from the evaluation of pitchers.
Their K/9 and HR/9 are pretty similar, but Morris walks about half as many guys as Franklin.
I’m not entirely sure why Davenport’s number mark Franklin as the better pitcher. They’re certainly both well below average.
Pitchers still hit in the NL, right?
Dave: I wish you had titled this post “You don’t know Jacque… but you want to.”
That would be it.
Thanks, Grizz.
Not to continue this too much, but Travis:
What “numbers” support your, well, support of Morris?
Wins? Too many things outside of the pitcher’s talent affect this.
ERA? See above.
Innings pitched? Shows you nothing about the quality of the innings pitched.
WHIP? It tells you a little bit, but there’s much, much better stats out there to evaluate pitcher performance by.
And by those stats, Matt Morris isn’t good enough to justify the amount of money that the more superficial numbers that you used as “support” are going to get him.
I’d make a big push for Javier Vazquez personally, but I doubt we could get him from the Dbacks for cheap. I suspect (as opposed to expect, that could look foolish) a big comeback from him, especially if he gets out of that park. He can still get the K’s and doesn’t walk a ton of people. I doubt the DBacks would be that dumb though, but it’d be worth a shot.
OK, so you let Felix start the opener and put someone else in at #5.
Then you hit September 1st, and realize unless you skip some of his starts through off days and keep him on an innings limit, he’s going to easily go over 200 IP. You already juggled the starts around the All-Star break, but it wasn’t enough.
Oh, did I mention you’re in a pennant race? So…you’re going to limit the innings your best starter pitches in September? Or are you going to risk a young arm?
Nope, I’m prety confident Felix is going to be the #5 and will miss starts in April. Remember, Joel had a pretty good 2001 and 2002 and he was awesome out of the ‘pen in long relief in April 2002. A lot of people looked at Lou and Bryan funny for doing what they did- but I think they were exactly right. Plus it means you don’t have to carry an extra reliever in April.
I don’t realistically expect us to be in a pennant race in September, but I take your point.
I think the appropriate thing to do would be to push back Felix’s starts all season, so he’s routinely getting 5-6 days rest. We’ll be juggling the rotation a lot anyway trying to avoid starting Moyer on the road, but starting him at home as many times as we can.
Dave,
I like the J. Jones idea. Who are the free agents comming for 2006?
Starting pitching should be 1ST on our list.
Ernie
I think there is one thing we are forgetting: some guys still need to play almost everyday so their batting stays “sharp”. You make the platoon guy a hyper pinch hitter and Jones in certain weeks may also become one. If the M’s face righties for five games or lefties for three games, do you just let them sit on the bench. You know Hargrove’s bench philosophy: keep it warm. Of course, this year he may have changed that. Anyway, I am just worried how the platooning would affect Jones personally (what is his make-up?) and the other guy.
Dave has convinced me that Jones appears to be a viable option. My question lies with the price. I’m sure there’s some statistical analysis out there that cross-references performance versus salary. Is $6M reasonable for his expected performance? Given our expected budget?
I think we can expect to see some improvement offensively from a handful of players in our expected lineup for next year. We can also assume some people will underperform. The tough hurdle to clear is that major league players rarely, if ever, learn to walk (so I’m told, though I don’t have the evidence to back it up…anyone care to comment?) and in that regard things look bleak.
I’m a fan of a deal for Vazquez. We were last in the majors in strikeouts and a full year of Felix plus Javier would help that. Since every team, including the scrubs are going to be focused on Burnett and Millwood, I hope Bavasi can try to work a deal with Arizona. What is the possiblity of something like this getting done?
#184, I personally doubt it will happen, but i think Bavasi would be stupid to not to inquire. Who knows maybe his ERA the last couple years will make management think he’s not really that good, but he is.
It seems that often the potential negative psychological effects are brought up with regards to platooning, but there seems to be at least one potential positive effect. If a player isn’t having a bunch of brutal at-bats against guys he’s not likely to succeed against, shouldn’t that make him that much more confident at the plate?
My general attitude towards the platoon is that it was used effectively in the past and seems to have been phased out only so managers could have more arms in the ‘pen, not because it wasn’t an effective strategy. It seems to be a pretty undervalued strategy these days.
And there are functioning platoons in the majors today.
As I mentioned, Toronto had one in left field all season.
sigh. Krueuger & Charlton are on KJR flinging stuff at the ceiling to see if it sticks– pitching? they both like Millwood, Norm did point out he might not be available… and if you look to trade, why, hey, how about Ben Sheets– ’cause Milwaukee is a small market team (apparently no one told Bill about the 4/$38.5M deal Ben got, and that the owner says the payroll goes up next year)
The one interesting thing Norm did say was that the Ms may have to overpay for pitching to get someone to come here, and, also show them that you have addressed the offense… which led to hitters– why, Raffy will be available, and why not Jr??
I think people need to forget about Vazquez. He doesn’t want to be anywhere but the east coast and I think he has some sort of trade clause in his contract.
#188– a bit more– Bill thinks a platoon in left, and/or at catcher, maybe a lefty catcher like Zaun to platoon with Torrealba… they do like the notion that Beltre, a non-local latin player with no ties to the club came here, and what that might b=do for other free agents; and Norm reminded us all that it’s a big wish list, and just because you want to work out a trade, it doesn’t mean you’ll get it (‘you can ask a girl out, but if she doesn’t want to go, she’s not gonna go’)
189. How do you explain him in AZ then? The clause is probably to ensure he doesn’t go back to Montreal. =)
Sexson thinks they need a fireballer… “you have Felix and a fireballer and stick Old Man Moyer in between, throwing his junky slop…” He also doesn’t see why any pitcher wouldn’t want to come and play here in Yellowstone Park
I do think the projected M’s line-up will substantially outperform this year’s team.
I think two other things:
1) That leaves the offense comfortably below average. (Comfortably above replacement. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2006 M’s roster will outhit their AAA counterparts!)
2) The overall numbers will be brought down by the nefarious disease that strikes most rosters – injuries. It’s reasonable to suspect that one or more of our comfortably above replacement players will, in fact, spend 4 to 6 or 8 to 10 weeks not playing. The one thing Gillick always spent money on was his bench, much to my chagrin and that of some SABR-folk. The 2006 M’s not only are unlikely to do the same, but they really don’t have any attractive imitators of major league hitters lying around in AA or AAA. A little waiver-wire depth building might go a long way (but won’t be done).
3) Saying, “No problem. If we just improve our offense by 50 runs it’s as good as the White Sox.” doesn’t inspire much confidence from me. The White Sox’ offence was their achilles heel all season long.
It turns out I think three other things. So shoot me.
AL avg runs scored was 767 in 2005. So we’d have 68 runs to make up to be an average offense. I think it’s within reach to produce 68 more runs from the 05 lineup alone (Saying all position except 1B, DH, and SS should have higher offense over 05 is realistic I feel), if you add a player like Jones, you’re down to needing just 40 more runs, achieveable by Beltre or Ichiro alone if either comes close to 04 numbers.
191: Because he was traded before his trade clause vested. Do you not remember all the hoopla about how Vazquez wanted to stay on the east coast and could use a clause in his contract to force a trade out of Arizona? I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it just seems highly unlikely.
Given how thin the options are this winter, I’d rather see the Ms keep their heads and do nothing rather than offering someone stupid money.
If Millwood signs with Cleveland, then EVERYONE will be after Burnett and Weaver.
I honestly don’t know what’s worse. Not getting Burnett or Weaver and going into next year with a lineup like this year’s. Or paying $14 million for a $9 million player.
Answer: DH. Put Ibanez back in left. Ibanez’s offensive value will outweigh his defensive liabilities, meaning you have his +runs and a heaping helping of +Dunn.
Off topic, but here’s a crime if there ever was one:
Jason Giambi = Comeback player of the year (AL).
Giambi’s numbers are basically because of an incredibly productive July.
You don’t believe me?
Giambi in July:
.355 / .524 / .974, 14 HR, 24 RBI, 5 2B, 1.498 OPS, 26 G.
You take that out and here’s his season totals:
.252 / .421 / .437, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 9 2B, .858 OPS, 113 G.
The numbers, they do not lie. Giambi’s OBP was absolutely disgusting this year; well beyond even his own career average. In any event, his numbers don’t hold a candle to Richie Sexson without that one July. I don’t see how someone can be the “Comeback Player of the Year” if their numbers are inflated by a single month worth of play.
Ill structured block quotes run amok! Seriously folks, I don’t want to have to pick out your comments from a block quote of Dave’s. Nothing personal. If you can’t play with the toys right, then try doing it the old fashioned way, putting regular old quotes around Dave’s comments.
#189, 191: Vasquez … trade … clause in his contract
Like any player signed to a multiyear deal, Vasquez has the right under the CBA to demand an off-season trade. If he cannot be accommodated, he will become a free agent.
I believe no player has ever actually done either of these things, but it gives the player a ton of leverage with his new club after a trade.
What the new managing owner at Tampa Bay is doing takes my breath away. And not just the free parking, either. hee hee
The problem with making incremental changes by bringing in 1 key person per season, be it managing owner, president, gm, scouting director, manager, pitching coach, etc., is that it seems impossible to separate out the production of the outgoing key person from the rest of the organization in order to make a good hire to improve the team.
In this case, everyone except many of the young Devil Ray players, have failed the Tampa Bay organization. It made sense to hit the nuclear option on the entire front office and field management and coaching, as this guy Stu is doing. Tampa Bay will be like a huge science experiment for the people who take over in 2006. If they rush in and start mixing chemicals right away the whole thing could blow up again. But I doubt that this guy Stu wants to repeat the failure. I would expect some savvy hires down there.
I’ve made plenty of negative remarks about Lincoln already so I’m not going to pile on further now except to say that sometimes you just need new blood to picture success in an organization. I think that’s where the M’s are now with Lincoln. Would that we had Stu!
Re: 198,
I did. Problem was I forgot the closing tag for the blockquote. My bad.
RE: 199
Is that true? Could any free agent on a bad team just get up and leave to go to a contender?
#202: No, no, not any FA. Sorry to be unclear about this.
NYY signed Vasquez to a multiyear deal, then traded him to Arizona. The CBA says if you are traded to another team after you sign a multiyear deal, you have a “Get Out of Jail Free” card at the end of the first season with the new team.
Eee, the things you learn on USSM.
Is this thread petering out yet?
So Dave,
I understand your thinking behind the JJones proposal, and in general I like it, though I’m glad that you clarified your design in #111. The approach is sound, sure, and Jones fits that approach well. Your cocktail napkin summation of the lineups’s likely value for next year as expressed in that post sounds pretty fair to me, too, although I’m sure we’ll get to more later.
I think, and have thought for years, that the value of superior defense is underestimated because it’s a multiplier: not only do you prevent opposition runs, but because you keep the score close you enhance the win potential of what runs you manaage to score yourself AND improve the results of your pitching staff beyond what they take to the mound. The Cardinals ’04 and the Mariner’s ’01 pitching staffs are obvious examples of such benefit. Whatever pitching staff makes up Mariners ’06, it’s going to be average at best, so get them plenty of help in the field.
Accordingly, it’s JJones defense that makes him interesting to me, plus he can play all three outfield positions. In a strict platoon, I like him at the cost it’ll take to get him; say, JJones/TBohn, or JJones/MThames. Jones is much better than doing nothing, and enormously better than getting someone like Griffey.
The issues I have with JJones aren’t with him and what he would most likely bring, then, but with the context of the team and the organization.
1) Jones at $6M plus platoon counts as a regular in the lineup, and against payroll: it he’s signed, that’s an impact bat that _isn’t_ acquired. Supposing that all works well and signing him in a platoon gets the offense to league average: what happens when someone else goes down, as happens almost every year? League average is immediately below average. We won’t see much out of Tacoma next year.
If Jones is signed to make that platoon AND an impact bat is acquired, I _really_ start to like this idea. Does that sound like the Mariners FO to you?? The Ms organization has a long history of ‘cheaping out’ for a ‘satisficient’ player; this is why we have Raul Ibanez batting third today, and penciled in for the same next year. Jones fits that narrow box in their pay ledger perfectly. In large probability, if the Ms sign Jacques Jones, then all we get is him. I don’t like that so much, but that’s nothing against the player. The idea for Anyteam USA with this team’s numbers is a fine one; I don’t trust this organization to get the best out of that idea rather than the least.
2) Why should we aim for a league average offense with a $90M payroll, hey? Safeco suppresses numbers to a degree, but not _that_ far. It’s not that I want or expect the Ms to go on a shopping spree, but this team needs to get more for the money they are spending. One way is to get smarter, always a good idea; you’re advocating this, as I read you. . . . Another way is to get other players for some of the ones you have now. That entails risk, but to keep them entails a high probability of mediocrity.
This organization has got to stop settling for league average results out of larger than average expenditures, which is why several people projected into that starting lineup should be moved in my view. That isn’t going to happen, and I’ll speak to it a bit more over the next couple of months nonetheless, but that’s my view.
And here’s why: This organization doesn’t have two years to fix the team; it doesn’t have one year; it has three months. If this team doesn’t go into camp next spring with a _very solid probability_ of winning 85+ games and being in some kind of contention, I feel certain that attendance will drop to around 2.2M. Not below that; sunshine and feel-good are good for that; but that far, yes. And at that attendance level, the team FO and ownership isn’t going to support a 90$ payroll. Whether by a ‘silent layoff’ approach or otherwise, the payout is going to shrink down toward $81-2M. With a league average or below team. Which is all we are going to see until we see somebody other than Lincoln owning the team [which is what he is, de facto now, with Yamaiuchi gone, the owner]. I’m not say this to rant, it’s my considered observation of probable outcomes. We really are in a win now, baby, or the context of the team is going to suffer a sharp and probably long-lasting downward valuation.
—So let’s turn over a chunk of the roster, take some risks, and win now. This FO won’t do it. But they should.
And a passing thought to you and Blog Elite, Dave: has there been quantitative analysis done on the issue of how many runs it takes to win? “One more than the other . . .” That’s not what I mean, although what I mean is difficult to express. As I said above, good defense keeps the score close so it enhances the ‘win value’ of the runs a team scores itself. The throws out, purely speculatively, the idea that a run scored might have something like an expressible ‘win value’ to it which might vary given team context and game context.
Any analysis along such lines? It would interest me to read it if so.
You had me until that. How many players turned over is a “chunk” to you?
Oh, and a further opine on a what if for the rotation, which would have been better in the Kevin Brown thread, but I didn’t think of it then: Kenny Rogers. Seriously. He threw 195 innings last year, he’s healthy, he’s effective, he’s a lefty, he’s available but a lot of teams will be scared off by a single, atypical incident.
Kenny Rogers. Ummm-hmm.
Chunk: 3-4 of the starting nine; all of the rotation not named Hernandez; 1-3 of the bullpen depending upon the deal; 1-2 of the top prospects still in the minors. It’s pretty obvious who should-and-could go if you think about it.
I’m not saying ‘be radical’ just to swing a dead cat. Nor do I think that this would be easy to do, obviously. I do think that it is possible, and that it should be done. . . . And I would far rather see it done than the ‘incremental improvement to sustainable mediocrity’ we’re seeing right now.
206, I haven’t done the stathead thing for a long time, but if I remember correctly 10 more runs over the course of the season is roughly eqivilent to one more win. If that’s not right, I’m sure I’ll be corrected.
197, I think if you’re going to be pulling out people’s great months to evaluate them, you’ve also got to pull out there outlier crappy months. And pretty soon you’ve got nothing left.
Baseball players just don’t always perform steadily like clockwork. I think you have to leave Giambi’s July performance in there.
As much as I would have liked to see Big Sexy win, how can you pull out Giambi’s July? What happens if you pull out Richie’s best month?
Giambi went nuts in July and he should absolutely be given credit for that.
#200- Rusty said: “I’ve made plenty of negative remarks about Lincoln already so I’m not going to pile on further now except to say that sometimes you just need new blood to picture success in an organization. I think that’s where the M’s are now with Lincoln. Would that we had Stu!”
so, seen the new blood rumored to be in line for the Tampa GM?? Gerry Hunsicker, Pat Gillick…
actually, it will be interesting– along with the old guard (including Hart) thats been rumored, there are also some of the next gen (Josh Byrnes, Chris Antonetti, Tony Lacava) names floating about.
#206 – It’s about scoring more runs than your opponent. You can score 800 runs, but if you give that many up you’ll be around a .500 club. Pythagorean Win Percentage is a better way to determine win-loss based on Runs scored and Runs allowed. Keep in mind Safeco is fairly extreme in run supression, so the offense will be worse and the pitching better (assuming good fielding). As far as Kenny Rogers, first the M’s brass would NEVER hire someone who had an ‘incident’ like he had with the camera man. As well, I wouldn’t want to see him signed for more than a year or two because of his age. I suspect he’ll want a 3 year contract (just a hunch). He would probably be fairly effective at safeco, considering he surpressed home runs the way he has in Texas. I don’t expect his ERA to stay that low next year, even at Safeco though.
Just not crazy about signing anyone as old as Rogers really. I would rather go young and take a chance with someone that has a chance of improving instead of the inevitable slippery slope.
For those calling for a roster turnover, it is already happening. From Opening Day to Opening Day, the M’s batting lineup will have 4 of 9 new starters, the rotation will have 3 of 5 new starters, the bullpen will have 3 or 4 new arms, and the bench will have all new players but one. So far, almost every new player is a noticeable improvement over his predecessor.
Give the young players a little time — just look at Cleveland. Most of their core young players (Peralta, Sizemore, Martinez, Crisp) struggled when first called up and then early this season.
Zaun’s a switch-hitter, and he’s under contract. Toronto would be crazy to give up Zaun while he’s their 4th best hitter at a position where most teams suck.
Zaun drew 71 unintentional walks in 2005 (which would rank behind only Richie on the M’s). He had a park-adjusted OBP of .370.
Toronto’s not losing him.
has there been any quantitative analysis done on the issue of how many runs it takes to win?
I believe there is a guy on the broadcast crew who has done some work on this issue. My understanding is that his conclusion is “four”.
205. Bela Txadux, you had me initially, but…
1) You have to realize that a large portion of our struggles came from a) bad hitters like Olivo, Valdez and a deteriorated Boone who aren’t with the team anymore, and have been replaced with guys easily capable of league average performances at the absolute least, and b) a horrible starting rotation with horrible pitchers (Sele, Franklin, Meche) who should not be back with the team in 2006. These guys often put us in such a deep hole that our offense couldn’t have scored enough to win even if they were above average or excellent. Count on Bavasi to fill the rotation with better pitchers who will keep us in more games, games we won’t have to score 10 runs to win.
Combine that with a 2006 offense that, without any additions, should easily outperform 2005′s Mariners, and all it may take is Jacque Jones for us to possibly contend for the wildcard.
2) We should aim for a $90 million payroll because we’re not the Yankees or Red Sox and can’t just throw $120 million into player salaries.
The offense, as it stands today, could probably give us league average performances in 2006 with nothing more than improved performances from a couple starters (any of Beltre or Lopez or Reed or Betancourt). Add another decent hitter in left, sign cheap but capable hitters (that means not Dave Hansen) for the bench, and the team should easily outperform their 699 run total. Make sure we have five starting pitchers who can keep us in games (Felix, an improved Pineiro, count on Moyer being back, and whichever two guys Bavasi manages to sign), and 2006′s Mariners will play much better baseball than 2005′s Mariners did.
It’s simply not accurate to say that the current FO is risk-averse. Inking Beltre and Sexson in the previous off-season were huge risks; in fact, they represent different types of risks. Potential aside, Beltre has has exactly one huge season in his career to justify his contract. Sexson’s offers shoulder worries and a looming decline phase.
What kind of risk do you want the FO to take, that you feel they won’t?
217, Evan — You’re right. Some of the lists of free agents out there include Zaun, because technically the Jays have a team option on him for next year ($1M, $100K buyout). However, that option became guaranteed with 70 games played in 2005.
If the Mariners are going to acquire Zaun, they’re going to have to trade for him. And like you, even though they have Guillermo Quiroz coming, I just don’t see that happening. Quiroz had major injury issues this year, and didn’t hit that well when he played; they need Zaun, and he doesn’t make enough money to make it worthy clearing him out for some free agent.
Regarding “how many runs equal a win?”, the “Pythagenport” winning percentage at Baseball Prospectus probably comes closest to answering your question. It adjusts for the run-scoring context, which matters when you’re comparing adding x runs on offense, or saving y runs in pitching or defense.
does anyone else think that beltre is probably 30 years old or more? does he look 26 to any of you? and as far as pitchers go, esteban loaiza should be the first target for the mariners. he was 24th in vorp in the majors this year and will be undervalued not only because gms dont use vorp, but because he pitched in washington and tanked it with the yankees. he was also pretty unlucky this year, with a .321 babip, though i dont know how much of that is from having 1/2 of your starts in that giant stadium. an increase in homeruns can obviously be expected, but if he can be had for 2 or 3 years at $4-$5m per, then a modest decrease from his 5.5 warp this year will be well worthwhile.
221, Pete — As I mentioned earlier, Toronto doesn’t have ANY free agents. Not one.
Toronto does, however, have 6 infielders and 6 outfielders, so they’ll need to move someone. They can’t keep all of Adams, Catalanotto, Griffin, Gross, Hill, Hillenbrand, Hinske, Hudson, Johnson, Koskie, Rios, and Wells.
But they’d be idiots to trade Zaun. A switch-hitting catcher with plate discipline for $1 million? And, he’s a personal friend of Slash.
I forgot Menechino. 7 infielders.
Evan wrote:
“221, Pete  As I mentioned earlier, Toronto doesn’t have ANY free agents. Not one.’
Yeah, I know, I remember you pointing that out, and I was agreeing with you. I should have made myself clearer. What I was trying to say was, that while Toronto clearly needs to move some people if they are going to increase payroll through participation in the FA market (as they’ve said they will), Zaun makes no sense as a target for that, since he only makes $1M and is their best catcher and one of their better bats. The only caveat is he is going to be 35 early next season, and the Jays do have Quiroz coming. It seems to me he had a bad, injury-plagued year in AAA, but maybe the Jays feel differently about him. Otherwise, I think we completely agree.
If we’re going to talk about Jacque Jones shouldn’t we also talk about guys like Aubrey Huff and Carl Crawford? Or even Juan Pierre (who admittedly has no “sock”)?
Re 211, 212,
My problem with Giambi winning is manyfold, but statsitically speaking he only was good from July on. His first 60 games were abysmal. In a sense, because that July woke him up, he was basically winning the award for his performance for the last 79 games he playd in the year.
Giambi (before July):
.258 / .409 / .374, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 6 2B, 60, .783 OPS, 60 G.
(Note the OPS is heavily OBP related)
Giambi (rest of season):
.282 / .463 / .655, 27 HR, 65 RBI, 8 2B, 1.118 OPS, 79 G
Meanwhile, Richie Sexson, Bob Wickman, and even Mark Ellis were doing it consistently all year long. Sexson played only 23 games last year with a shoulder injury that was of concern this year too. All he does is go prove the naysayers wrong. I can take out Richie’s best month and his season totals still look fine. For comparison:
Richie up to end of June:
.241 / .341 / .492, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 16 2B, .833 OPS, 79 G
Rest of season:
.284 / .394 / .586, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 20 2B, .980 OPS, 77 G
Yeah, he had a better second half too, but his first half didn’t suck by any means, mostly mired by a really bad May (everybody on the team had a bad May).
And let’s not piss around the bush here, you can’t mention the name Giambi without the 8-letter S word sneaking into the conversation. His OBP is sick, and I can appreciate that it takes a patient (or scared) hitter to walk that much, but there seems to be an odd opinion that “Giambi Survived (8-letter S word) Controversy” and is now “doing it” without those cheating supplements. These same people believe you shrink like a limp Chien-Ming Wang when you’re off those said supplements.
I don’t think Giambi should be celebrated at all. Because of his leaked Grand Jury testimony, we know the truth. When the case is resolved, it’ll all go public anyway, and we’ll know for sure. But I refuse to believe that Jason Giambi deserves an award for anything because of last season.
TIF, I agree with you on Giambi, even though I disagree with you on priciple about “taking” out anybody’s best month, etc. Though I understand your larger point is Giambi wasn’t consistent this season, you’ve got to take the good with the bad.
My objection has to do with what Giambi was coming back from, which, ughh, you’ve already covered.
Oh, and let’s not forget that MLB does not currently test for HGH.
227. Huff and Crawford will be prime targets in the FA market, Jacque Jones not so much, and thus will command a more inflated price than we’d end up paying for Jones.
No one tests for hGH. There’s no reliable test.
I had actually been agreeing with you up there, Pete. I was just emphasizing because it’s so weird. What team finishes a season with all of its players under contract?
We should REALLY push to get Hideki Matsui. Great LF defense, good offense, probably a good Safeco fit, AND he’s japanese!!!! Chances are slim to none of course, but would be worth a big push.
There’s no push to get Matsui, either he resigns with NYY or he hits waivers. If he hits waivers he likely goes to us because we’d be willing to pay him what he wants. If he decides to play in Seattle, he does, if not, back to Japan. The Ms don’t need/can’t do anything to increase our chances of getting him.
One plus about trying to acquire Aubrey Huff or Carl Crawford from Tampa: no crazy GM there that would demand King Felix in return. I believe a shadow has been lifted from above Tropicana Field……
I’ll be curious to see who gets Comeback Player from the Sporting News and from the Players Assn….
I was thinking Aubrey Huff myself #227. He’s left handed, a year or two younger than Jones, and with only one year left on his contract at around $7 million the D-Rays are reportedly ready to move him. I would hope that we would atleast check out what they are asking for him. I would be willing to send a Cha Sung Baek or two there way if that would do the trick.
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I don’t see the attraction with Jones at $6M although I do think he may get that kind of a contract with someone:
1) His offensive numbers have significantly declined over the last two seasons compared to his 2002 and 2003 seasons. He should have been coming into his prime in 2004 and 2005.
2) He is particularly unselective at the plate. Or as Ron Fairly likes to say “you don’t walk your way off the island”.
3) Assuming that the other 1/3 of the platoon costs $3M, we will have spent $9M for a left field tandem that is about offensively league average.
Where did you get 3M for the other platoon? It isn’t algebra, you don’t just say Jones at 2/3 for 6M ergo player X at 1/3 for 3M. First off, it’s more of a 3/4 to 1/4 split. Secondly, salaries aren’t linear, Marcus Thames is a good example. There are plenty of people out there that can be had for ~500K. Call it 7M just for S&G for Jones at 40 VORP and player X for 5 VORP. That’s 45 VORP or about 4.5 wins for 7M. 4.5 wins is worth about 9M in salary.
I guess I don’t agree that Jones will be a 40 VORP. Assuming that he plays 74% of the time all against righties I estimate him getting approximately 518 PAs. I think that 25 would be a high end VORP prediction. Of course I am not factoring in defense. Perhaps I haven’t figured this out right, if so please show me where I went wrong.
I’m not very high on Jones, but in theory, on a team that could handle the responsibility of platooning him, he’d be a decent fallback plan. Unforunately on the Mariners, you can count on Grover letting him swing the bat v. a LHP in the bottom of 8th with runners on 2nd and 3rd…