2005 Year in Review
Early in the week I had written up the Rogers Hornsby quote about what to do doing winter on a markerboard in my house. The guy who lives next to me – an unabashed Yankee lover – says to me, “Nice quote. But I don’t get it. The season is just starting.â€Â
I wanted to punch him in the face.
Here’s the final tally on the Mariners’ 2005, because the baseball season is definitely over.
Vital Signs
Wins: 69. Losses: 93. Games out of first place: 26.
The Mariners claim the cellar for the second consecutive season, and rumor has it, become the first team since Connie Mack’s Philadelphia A’s to follow-up a pair of 90-win seasons with a pair of 90-loss seasons. Nevermind that the M’s had four 90-win seasons prior to last year. But that’s for another day. It’s only the second time since 1992 (don’t count ‘94) that the Mariners failed to win 70 games. On the bright side (bright as in dark and dreary as a November afternoon in Seattle), there happen to be 10 seasons in Mariner history that were worse than this one, according to winning percentage. Again on the plus side, the Mariners improved by 6 games over last year. And they finished 3 games closer to first place. That’s something, ain’t it?
Runs Scored: 699 (13th in the American League). Batting average: .256 (last). On-base percentage: .318 (last). Slugging percentage: .392 (13th). Home runs: 129 (13th). Bases on balls: 466 (8th). EqA: .249 (12th, tied with Kansas City). The American league average is .267/.328/.424.
Runs allowed: 751 (7th). Staff ERA: 4.47 (7th). DIPS ERA: 4.64 (12th). Strikeouts: 885 (last). Bases on balls: 495 (9th). Home runs allowed: 178 (10th, tied with Baltimore). Starters ERA: 4.92 (11th). Relievers ERA: 3.52 (5th). Defensive efficiency: 70.2% (5th).
A proposal to the M’s marketing for a 2006 slogan: Seattle Baseball – At least it’s not the 80’s anymore!
For all the rhetoric about a re-made offense last winter, the Mariners improved by exactly 1 run in the offense department. Just one. But don’t go blaming Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. There are dozens of reasons to postulate just why the offense took 3 steps forward and 2 back. While the offense looked none too good, it really looked none too bad, either, at least by Seattle standards. Thirteen Mariner teams have scored fewer runs, though to be fair, two of them were in strike-shortened years. So, this was a pretty middle-of-the-pack season in regards to runs scored.
I know, I know what you’re saying by now – “Seattle standards suck.†And, unfortunately, this is true. The Mariners have a cumulative pythagorean winning percentage of .477. And playing for a .477 season isn’t what we’re after. Being the last team standing in October – that’s what we’re after. What I’m interested here is historical perspective.
This year’s squad scored 4.31 runs per game, which ranks 17th out of 29 seasons. That’s comparable to the ‘79 team (one that carried five starters with sub-.330 OBPs, including a .198-hitting Mario Mendoza), the ‘91 team (one with Dave Valle and Omar Vizquel and their sub-.300 SLGs and a 21-year-old Griffey and his 22 home runs) and the ‘89 team (where Jeffrey Leonard led the team with 21 home runs but with a .302 OBP). Not an impressive year at the plate, but if you’ve been reading here at all, you already knew that.
But scoring runs isn’t everything. Remember the ‘96 Mariners? They scored more than 6 a game, but also gave up more runs than any Seattle team had seen at that point and won only 85 games. This year’s team, which allowed 751 runs, again ranks right in the middle against previous Mariner teams. They’re sandwiched between the ‘84 team (led by a 23-year-old Mark Langston and his 204 strikeouts in 225 innings) and the ‘88 team (another rotation anchored by Langston). Before we jump to conclusions in celebrating nine on the field who could catch the ball, keep in the mind that the team’s defensive efficiency was better than ‘04 by just one-tenth of a percent.
Scoring runs and preventing them is not an either/or proposition. A team must do both. You have to score more runs the other team if you want to win a game, and especially if you want to win a championship. Unfortunately, the 2005 teams didn’t do that. The opposition outscored the Mariners by 52 runs, which over the course of 162 games doesn’t sound like very much to me. Given that the Mariners have outscored opponents by 100 or more runs four times (namely four times in a row, 2000-03) and been outscored by 100 or more eight times (including last season), this season doesn’t look so bad. In fact, it’s pretty par for the course as far as Mariner teams go. Six teams have finished the season outscored by margins of between 40 and 60.
Heroes
Richie Sexson put all concerns about a damaged shoulder to rest for one season, leading the team with a .317 EqA and 56.1 VORP. He was fourth in the league among first baseman in VORP, just a hairs-breadth behind Jason Giambi (58.3) and Paul Konerko (56.3). He also led the team in doubles (36, tied with Beltre), home runs (39), walks (89), on-base percentage (.369) and slugging percentage (.541). It was the most home runs ever by a Seattle first baseman. Both Paul Sorrento in ‘97 and Tino Martinez in ‘95 hit 31, and they both had the advantage of the Kingdome. It was a vast improvement over the first base situation of last year, where the Mariners got only 15 home runs and a .392 SLG out of first base.
Jamie Moyer led the team with 200 innings pitched and a 30.5 VORP. I’d like to know if any pitcher in baseball benefited from his home park more than Moyer. His ERA at Safeco Field was 2.95 but 6.11 everywhere else. King Felix appeared in less than half of Moyer’s innings (84.3) yet nearly matched his VORP (28.6). Felix was fifth on the entire team in VORP. He had the highest K/9 (8.22) and lowest ERA (2.67) among all Seattle starters. Most impressive was his HR/9 at 0.53. For perspective, consider that the top fifteen pitchers in VORP all gave up less than a home run per nine innings. Of those fifteen Cy Young hopefuls, only Roger Clemens and Dontrelle Willis were stingier with home runs than King Felix.
Not-so-much Heroes
In 157 plate appearances, Miguel Olivo “hit†.151/.172/.276, which tranlsated into a lineup-sinking -12.8 VORP and a disgusting .140 EqA. To add insult to injury, Olivo was traded to San Diego July 31 and in 124 plate appearances for the Padres hit .304/.339/.487 with a 12.4 VORP.
For 116 innings the 35-year-old Aaron Sele provided less than replacement-level value for the Mariners with a 5.66 ERA and -0.9 VORP. In his final start that got him voted off the island, Sele allowed 9 runs to the Indians and labored through 98 pitches in just 4 brutal innings.
As a fan, one learns to take the good with the bad. Though, in Seattle this season there was more to disappoint than inspire. While Richie Sexson and Felix Hernandez provided a bright spot and a really bright spot, the second 90-loss season in a row leaves a bitter taste in mouths of the Seattle faithful and the pressure on Bill Bavasi to stop the bleeding and quick. Or else.
It’s going to be a busy winter.
Comments
58 Responses to “2005 Year in Review”
dont forget ichiro’s 8.4 warp3, highest on the team.
Thanks Peter..The two other bright spots for me were Yu-Bet at SS and Soriano pitching. Those two along with King Felix kept my interest.
But uncertain without the game threads even they would have been enough. The authors and posters make the game far more entertaining..Thanks to all
I’d mention to your neighbor that after a game like Friday night’s I’d be embarrassed to be in any way associated with the Yankees. Giving up 19 hits? The bullpen has no clothes! The bullpen has no clothes!
Also, the Yankees are trailing 2 games to 1 behind a team that the M’s swept twice during the regular season…
Yes, I’d put Betancourt’s defense into the Heroes paragraph, though I realize there are no real numbers to quantify it. It’s not often you hope to see the other teams hit grounders up the middle, just because you know something wonderful will happen. “Batted balls become Betancourt’s bitches”
I wish there was an easy way to extrapolate the September team out across the entire season, since it was so different from the team that came out of spring training. That would at least give us a better basis for evaluating changes in the offseason.
I just want to say I appreciate your in depth analysis of the M’s. The other blogs you have linked on your website are mostly negative and they don’t check their facts at all. Most of the time they don’t know what they are talking about. They assume they are pro scouts and are so black and white on their statements. I wonder how long they have been baseball/Mariner fans.
I know blogs are forums of discussion/venting/expression. But when you post judgements, please:
-check your facts
-look outside of numbers sometimes
-don’t overanalyze particular skills
-don’t assume you know all
-pose questions/discussions – not ridiculous absolutes
There is a reason these players/coaches are among the select few pros in the world. They are talented. The questions are: are they good enough and do they fit where they are? There is a reason they are there and we are not. Most of those blogs are wanna-be Finnigans.
ussmariner, keep up the good work. You post insightful questions and discussion topics. You thoroughly check your facts and back up your judgements. There is no other site like yours for intelligent M’s fans. Bravo
Joel M. – I disagree. Check out Lookout Landing, Marinerds and Nice Guys Finish Third. Those are a few of my non-USSM favorite Mariners blogs, and there are many other quality M’s blogs. Personally, I think the Mariners have one of the best groups of bloggers around.
Slightly off topic:
Scott Spiezio
Spiezio’s got his own post now.
The best thing about following the Mariners is the insight and the writing provided by the stalwarts who run this site, and for the most part, the comments by the many thoughtful readers. As an older guy, who grew up on baseball, and then drifted away for many years, this site makes it fun to follow baseball once again. Keep up the fine work. The USS Mariner is the best baseball blog.
My only comment about the state of the Mariners is my belief that the front office is not interested in developing a winner, but is interested in making the fans “perceive” that they are intent on developing a winner. Take a look at the April issue of Forbes magazine to read how the Mariners are a big financial success. It would not be prudent from a PR basis, but I would have more respect for the front office if they were honest and stated that there number one goal was making $$$, and if they happened to field a successful baseball team…..all the better.
9- i agree completely. anyone interested in the forbes perspective, heres a link.
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2005/0425/086.html
One thing to remember is that a lot of the drek that contributed to our miserable offense this season, Wilson Valdez, the Olivo/Wilson/Borders nightmare catching platoon, Bret Boone, Spiezio, Hansen, are either gone or will not be with the team next season, and have since been replaced with more capable hitters (Betancourt, Torrealba and Lopez are a hair above replacement level at worst). Ditto the pitching and the likes of Sele, Franklin, Thornton and maybe Meche.
A good portion of what contributed to our miserable numbers is gone and what has replaced them should go a long way to improving those numbers next season, and that’s discounting whatever acquisitions Bavasi manages to make this offseason.
My highlight for this season is finding this site!
And Betencourt’s glove.
And seeing Felix for the first time(s)(vs. Kansas City & Yankees).
And “catching” a foul ball.
It was actually fun being a fan to a losing team, because I at least understood “how” they were losing.
Thank you so much.
mark
I don’t know where else to post it, so here goes. I was responding to some Jeff Weaver posts over at Lookout Landing.
Weaver
His career DIPS are solid, but looking at the 3 year trend raises pros and cons.
Good:
His walk rate declines each season
His SO rate increases each season
He pitches more innings each season
His P/IP decreases each season
Bad:
His GB/FB ratio drops each season
Did Jeff Weaver get “unlucky” in terms of HR allowed in 05, yes. 12.24% of FB went for HR when average is around 10%. So you can except regression downward in the HR/FB ratio. However, he is progressively becoming more of a flyball pitcher. I would expect his HR allowed next season, if in LA, to stay around 35.
What does this all mean?
Well, pitching stats are more difficult to analyze than hitting stats. I chose to use pitching runs above replacement (PRAR) and took the fielding into consideration as well. Feel free to point out the problems with using PRAR, I’d like to be better educated on this.
Anyways,
2005 PRAR + FRAR
Burnett = 63
Millwood = 65
Weaver = 61
Washburn = 58
None of the 4′s 05 numbers were any more fluky given past seasons than any other.
Conlcusion, using above and MargWin formula here’s their relative values.
Millwood
Burnett (worth ~500K less based on 05 alone)
Weaver “”
Washburn “”
Weaver and Washburn to 3 year contracts might be the biggest value of the year. We could surmise that those two would cost 16-20/year combined to sign compared to Millwood and Burnett at 25-30.
Which would you rather have at the same cost:
Jeff Weaver, Jarrod Washburn, and Jacque Jones
Kevin Millwood and AJ Burnett
For 2005, the first bundle saved 160 runs above replacement. The second, 128.
Instead of punching him in the face, try this (verbal) gut punch, from Chris “Mad Dog†Russo, of NY’s WFAN sports talk radio’s “Mike and the Mad Dogâ€Â:
“They have a 205 million dollar payroll. They are paying one guy fifteen million dollars not to pitch despite the fact that he’s healthy . They have a Hall of Fame manager, a Hall of Fame third baseman, a Hall of Fame shortstop, a Hall of Fame right fielder, a Hall of Fame closer, a Hall of Fame number one starter and they still find themselves on the brink of defeat! Their safety net is ridiculous – they can blow millions and not worry while teams like the Red Sox, whom they often compare themselves to, let Pedro Martinez and will let Johnny Damon go because they actually have a budget . Considering their injuries, by the way, the Sox could feel pretty good about themselves despite their playoff loss because they have a salary structure that is eighty million dollars less than the Yankees. Face it……deal with it Yankee fans – your team is nothing less than the laughing stock of baseball. The laughing stock . The laughter you hear, New York, is coming from the lungs of every non-Yankee fan all around the world. It’s Elimination Day, baby!“
Off topic,
But doesn’t anyone realize today is the 10th Anniversary of “The Double”?
FWIW –
the Toronto Sun hints that the Mariners are ready to offer Burnett $65 million over 5 years.
Mariners chase Burnett
That same article mentions that Millwood is from the Phillies so I’d be skeptical.
Last year I was get Beltran wagon speed, switch-hitter etc but was moved off that position to Beltre by the posts written by authors here. Believe anyone backing Beltre over Betran last year was correct. Especially considering the contracts (still actually feel Beltre was best deal in last years FA market).
That leads me to believe Posts by authors Millwood is a better pitcher not only value but statisically
Remember that Dave, DMZ, Jason were touting Clement rather than Pavano as well.
Results are proof.
Only had hoped Mariners would have signed one more big name last year a it appears to be barren this year. Of course unless Front Office listens to USSM. Plus trades manager and coaching staff with Angels. Maybe owner as well.
#16: Jeezus,
Burnett threw a no-hitter in which he walked 9 batters and hit another one! Do the M’s want a guy who commands the strike zone, or will they settle for someone like Burnett?
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B05120SDN2001.htm is the box score of his no-hitter.
That was a while ago LB, wasn’t it?
I mean, there was a heck of a difference in Randy Johnson circa 1992 and Johnson circa 1997.
interestingly enough, randy johnson is #9 on burnett’s comp list (965). so that comparison is right on.
#20,21: Yes it was a while ago. It’s one data point. Look at Burnett’s ERA+ stats for a few more recent years:
2003: 86
2004: 112
2005: 126
Weight those figures by 20% for the oldest result, 30% for the middle, and 50% for the most recent, and the weighted average is 114. Better than average, just a bit. Do you really want to throw 5/$65m at better than average?
Uh, no, not really. I take it you don’t either?
I’m not sure I get this. Burnett is a significant injury risk and is going to cost a fortune. But compared to, say, Millwood, his raw numbers look a tad better to me. Millwood has much better control, to be sure, but he’s a flyball pitcher who’s never struck guys out at the same rate that AJ Burnett has sustained over his career (Millwood 7.39 per 9 for his career, 6.84 this year vs 7.89 and 8.54 this year for Burnett). Whereas Burnett is improving his control after coming back from surgery and is increasingly a groundball pitcher (G/F ratios for the past three years: 1.29, 1.49, 2.42).
Millwood pitched well this year, but not nearly as well as his 2.84 ERA might suggest. His numbers don’t look that different from his first year in Philly, when he posted a 4.01 ERA. Unless his age and lousy win/loss record depress his likely market price a bit, is he really a better bet than Burnett?
I know Millwood scores better than Burnett on VORP, RA+, and especially, runs prevented; I just don’t understand why. Is ProPlayer stadium a severe pitchers park? What drives the huge discrepancy between AJ’s actual numbers and his adjusted numbers?
BTW, Burnett’s RP score on Baseball Prospectus is 3 over 209 innings pitched; i.e. he prevented only three more runs all season than an average pitcher. If that’s right, somebody is going to pay him about 70 million dollars to prevent fifteen runs over the next five years. That ought to win them about two extra games over that span, if they’re lucky. $35Million per marginal win would be some ugly sort of record.
Is ProPlayer stadium a severe pitchers park? What drives the huge discrepancy between AJ’s actual numbers and his adjusted numbers?
They call it “Dolphins Stadium” now, and yes, it is a pitchers park. Jacobs Field, on the other hand, is a hitters park.
I am basing this on http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor.
Even then, Burnett’s home/road splits aren’t horrible: .669 OPS on the road this year, compared with .613 at home. And the Marlins aren’t an above average defensive team.
Hmmm, on reflection. His road ERA of 3.80 this year sits right alongside Kenny Rogers, Paul Byrd, Jeff Suppan, Kyle Lohse and what’s left of Greg Maddux (that’s rough company for a future HoF’er). I want nothing to do with this bum. DFA him already.
Here’s a fun little optimistic analysis for next year.
The 2005 playoffs teams the M’s are most like are the Angels and White Sox. It can be argued that both of these teams were lucky to make the playoffs based on run distribution, but even with that as a given, they did make the postseason and still had pretty good run differentials. The M’s allowed 112 more runs than the Angels and 106 more runs than the White Sox. How can we make up that difference?
The league average starter in the AL this year had a 4.35 ERA, but let’s say pitching in Safeco behind the M’s good defense cuts that down to 4.00 (with maybe a little bit of good luck). Replacing the innings of Aaron Sele, Gil Meche, Ryan Franklin, and Jeff Harris with “average” 4.00 ERA guys cuts the M’s (earned) runs allowed by 63. Say we find some very good starters, with an average ERA of 3.50, to replace those innings, and we cut the runs allowed by 91.
The bullpen was pretty good all around, with the exceptions of Matt Thornton and Shigetoshi Hasegawa. Let’s say we replace their innings with 3.50 ERA relievers, and we cut another 11 earned runs. That assumes that the rest of the bullpen stays about the same in performance, even though Ron Villone (2.45 ERA in 40.3 IP) and Jeff Nelson (3.93 ERA in 36.7 IP) won’t be around, and Eddie Guardado (2.72 ERA in 56.3 IP) might not be. The additions of Rafael Soriano, George Sherrill, and whoever else could equalize the bullpen, though. And let’s hope Julio Mateo stays just as good.
So far we’ve cut between 74 and 102 runs allowed off 2005′s total. Now, say Joel Pineiro gets sprinkled with fairy dust and cuts a run every 9 innings and improves his ERA to 4.62. That saves 21 more runs in the same number of IP, for a total of between 95 (by replacing our departing starters with 4.00 ERA’s) and 123 runs (with 3.50 ERA’s). That eliminates the entire difference between the M’s and our two playoff friends.
There are some important things to consider, though. 1) How will F-her perform? If he pitches 200 innings of 2.67 ERA ball that makes the M’s run prevention much better, but he could pull a Zack Greinke or he could come down with an injury (KNOCK ON WOOD!!). 2) If Moyer sticks around, will the pretty good 2005 version show up, the awful 2004 version, or the grand 2003 version? 3) Who exactly gives us these 4.00 and 3.50 ERA’s? Burnett and Millwood would be very fine, but I think cheaper options like Kevin Brown, Byung-Hyun Kim, or even Scott Elarton could fit the bill. Jesse Foppert could surprise. 4) The overall defense could very well improve with a full season of Yuniesky and whomever we get to fill in LF.
On the run scoring side, the M’s were closer with our idols. The M’s only scored 42 fewer runs than the White Sox and 55 fewer than the Angels (which might demonstrate how bad their offenses are more than anything else).
Let’s look at the players we jettisoned again first. I’ll use VORP because it’s easy for me to understand and translates directly to run scoring. The total VORP of Olivo, Spiezio, Valdez, Borders, Hansen, and Dan Wilson was -42.7. Add in a guy we won’t see (Bubela), a guy we won’t see hit as badly (Choo), and a guy we hope we won’t see (Dobbs) and that’s a total of -50.6 VORP gone, simply by replacing departed plate appearances with replacement level plate appearances. That eliminates the entire difference we had with the White Sox and almost all of the difference with the Angels.
We’re also not going to see some positive hitting, though. Rene Rivera (7.7 VORP) and Mike Morse (12.1 VORP) won’t be as effective and Randy Winn (14.5 VORP) is gone, for a total of 24.3 VORP missing. Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez are good bets to not hit as well, either. Hopefully, we’ll see some improvement by at least some of Jose Lopez, Jeremy Reed, Adrian Beltre, Yorvit Torrealba, and Miguel Ojeda (or his replacement). This could be a wash, if we’re lucky. Then, of course, there’s the left sock we were promised. Jacque Jones without a platoon partner provided 17.8 VORP this year, without counting his runs saved on defense. Brian Giles helped out with 65.1 VORP. Hopefully, our left handed sock puppet will provide at least 24.3 runs above a replacement player.
Overall, using my oversimplified cursory analysis, I think it looks very possible that the M’s can not only beat .500 next year, but can contend. They “just” need to follow Bavasi’s plan of getting a couple decent starters and a decent hitter. Maybe most importantly of all, though, they need to pay attention to the bench next year. The bench may have hurt the 2005 Mariners more than even its awful starting pitching. Take those steps and add a lack of injuries, no large degradations in performance, and a little luck, and we have a winning team.
There was an excellent post at another blog about this. The nutshell is the Ms are 150 runs from 90 wins. (+100 runDiff usually correllates to a 90 win mark). How do we get those 150 runs?
Catcher
-the 2005 Ms (Wilson, Rivera, Olivo, Borders, Torrealba, Ojeda) combined for -2 (BRAR + FRAR) [They were about -15 on BRAR which is that -15 VORP you keep hearing about, but overall played above RL defense]
-A full season of Torrealba for 130 games (+38 RAR) and 30 games from Ojeda/Rivera (call that 0 RAR)
2006 Net: 40 RAR!!
First Base: Sexson, his 54 BRAR (park adjusted) was right in the middle of his milwaukee days, so I don’t think its a stretch to see a repeat there. Lets say he loses 5 BRAR though. His fielding was actually below average this year according to BP, giving him just 5 FRAR (same # he got playing just 23 games in Ari). Sexson’s D in milwaukee hovered around +25 FRAR. Lets say he picks up just 5 FRAR, so he’s a wash.
2006 Net: 0
Second Base: in 2005 Boone (12), Lopez (13) and Bloomie (4) combined for 29 RAR. A full season of Lopez at 2005 numbers (assuming no development) gives us 39 RAR.
2006 Net: +10
Shortstop: 2005: Betancourt (6), Valdez (-5), Morse (8) combines for 9 RAR. Full season in 06 with Betancourt assuming NO development is 15. I think this number is way low because for some reason BP doesn’t rate Yuni’s D at SS even above average. If you take his 2B numbers and extrapolate them out though, he’s a +30 FRAR guy. So take this as about worst case scenario.
2006 Net: +6
Third Base: 2005 Beltre (37) [04 Beltre (103)], Lets call this a wash because there’s too much room to speculate.
06 Net: 0
Left Field: Winn, Snelling, Dobbs, Hansen (taking some liberties here on the DH/LF split. It’s just a matter of where I put the numbers so don’t worry about it) combined for 29 RAR. Jacque Jones was 41 RAR in 05 and it’s likely his FRAR would go up in SafeCo.
06 Net: +12*** (based on signing Jacque Jones)
Center Field: I’ve been saying no development throughout and since Reed is our 06 CF I’ll call it a wash. For reference though he had more BRAR in 04 than 05. If he improves anywhere near a .280/.350/.400 player that’s like another 15 RAR.
06 Net: 0
Right Field: see above
06 Net: 0
DH: see above
06 Net: 0
06 Net from hitters alone: 68
Felix: 200/84.33 = 2.3 factor. I’ll round down to 2 to create some room for a 06 that’s not as good as 05.
06 Net: 36!
Replacing Meche, Franklin, and Sele with Jarrod Washburn/Jeff Weaver type performances (21) + (39) + (17) with (58) + (61)
06 Net: 42!
That’s 146 runs right there.
That assumes:
–a bullpen as a whole performing equally to 05
–whatever Moyer’s dropoff is gets cancelled out by Pineiro’s return to 04 numbers (+10 RAR)
–no improvement from our regulars
–no bench improvement
That’s 146 runs simply from shedding the 04 weight of Boone, Olivo, Valdez, etc. And bringing in Jones, Washburn and Weaver (would cost around 20M).
+68 on offense yields 767 runs scored
+78 on pitching yields 673 runs allowed
comparable team, 05 As (764, 655)
PythRec on (767, 673) = 91.5 wins.
If I feel like it, I’ll do a more detailed look into the bullpen and rotation later.
Longsufferin, nice analysis on Burnett, Millwood, Weaver and Washburn.
Thanks Rusty. I was surprised when I looked into it. I had viewed signing Weaver and Washburn with disgust, and now, with how much less they should cost than Millwood/Burnett, and the hope that those deals could be completed sooner allowing us more time to look for trades, I’m starting the bandwagon on this one.
Hmmm, it seems Ichiro is paying his way, indirectly (from Forbes); “Tourists from Japan account for 6% of sales at the downtown Executive Pacific Plaza Hotel; pre-Ichiro their share was less than half a percent. “They are good shoppers,” says Michael Cummings, head of Sports Den, a three-store chain in Seattle. Japanese buyers account for 10% of his baseball business”
And people have been calling for an Ichiro trade. I’m sure a lot of markets would like to pick up that business. I think his VORP is really much higher. And those FO guys really sound like they have been scamming the good citizens of seattle.
Toward the end of this season, even before Dave made a case for Millwood, I was already for Millwood as the M’s #1 offseason acquisition target. But after digging a little deeper and seeing much of the analysis that has been presented, I’m changing my mind. Mind you, I don’t think it would be a bad thing to get Millwood, Weaver or Washburn. I just believe that if we’re going to spend big bucks, then I’m for grabbing AJ Burnett.
There are many stats to use to judge the talent, but I’m looking at these DIP ERA stats:
2005 3.31
2004 3.35
2003 injury rehab
2002 3.39
I haven’t checked every pitcher, but I believe that no other available pitcher is close to these stats. Plus, AJ is still a relatively young free agent at 29, going into next year.
We came close on getting Schmidt in 2002 and came up short. Whatever we offered Vladi in 2004, if anything, was short. I believe, considering we may have up to an extra $25 million to spend on 2006 salary, that we shouldn’t come up short on the #1 impact pitcher available this year. I’d rather have Burnett and an affordable Brown over any other combination of 2 available starters.
Where d’ya get those numbers on Mr Burnett, because, as I said above, his park adjusted numbers on Baseball Prospectus are very, very weak.
VORP a little less than Josh Towers, CC Sabathia, Paul Byrd, and only a little better than Jamie Moyer in 2005. And that frighteningly low number of 3 (THREE!) runs prevented over 209 innings (when compared to an average, but not replacement level pitcher).
In less Sabermetric baseball speak (because I’m dealing with terms here that I barely understand) his road ERA for the previous three seasons is 4.13. This year it’s 3.80, which is good, but not knock-your-socks-off good.
What I don’t understand is why his numbers are so weak, because he strikes out a lot of guys, and is increasingly a ground ball pitcher.
Uber-stat geeks out there: Is that RP stat really unreliable? It scares the bejeezus out of me.
I don’t know where the 3 runs above average comes in. BP has him at 8 for the season. Still not awe inspiring, but the whole issue of what amount of success Burnett’s had is attributable to his defense and ballpark is grey.
#31: … Executive Pacific Plaza Hotel; pre-Ichiro their share was less than half a percent.
Maybe I am not thinking clearly: as a baseball fan, I want the team to win the World Series. Explain to me why I should care how much money the hotels in Seattle make from Japanese business.
A major problem with giving this team credit for being middle-of-the-pack is that you’re comparing a Safeco Field team, with massive resources, with the revenue-starved Kingdome teams. In addition to the difference in gate revenues, the current edition has much better TV contracts than did those in the Kingdome era. In other words, those Kingdome teams, to some extent, really didn’t have enough money to be good. That’s just not true now, and reflects very, very poorly on management and the ownership. What really makes me grind my teeth is the team’s refusal to court top-of-the-line free agent pitchers. There must be a great deal of interest in pitching in Safeco, but this management, which is risk-aversive in the extreme, won’t go after them. Unless ownership gets over its aversion to take reasonable risks, there will never be any championships. (The lack of a top-of-the-line starter was what killed them in 2001.)
#35, Stats are not looked at without the big $$$. For example Beltre was considered a bust (so far) because besides his stats compared to last year, he is making a ton of money — thus he isn’t worth what they are paying him. Now, if he was making just a mil then people would be ecstatic at such a find for 3B. If a player is bringing in the fans then there is just that much more money for the team. You should care because those Japanese stay at the hotel so they have a place to go after the game — tourist fans fill seats. I can only think of one other player that might bring in tourists fans: Matsui. Of course, one would hope the team uses that money for players to bring in a winning team — see the connection? — but in the M’s FO case, I don’t know. That’s why (and other reasons) I think they are scamming the good citizens of Seattle.
Long Suffering: BP gives Burnett an RP score of 3 for 2005 on the page I was looking at (VORP for Pitchers listing). Their stats suggest that ProPlayer/Dolphin Stadium is a pitchers park, but the Marlins are not an above average defensive team.
Ok, well BP lists AJ as 8 PRAA. Not sure how that compares to RP.
#37: No, Ray. I have run these numbers before, and they do not work out.
Ichiro is making $11m this year. You cannot sell $11m worth of tickets to Japanese fans if you load up a 747 full of tourists every single day and fly them to Seattle for every home game.
A 747 can carry about 400 people between here and Japan. If every one of them came just to see the M’s and bought a $50 lower box seat (which they don’t, since they like “Area 51â€Â), they would bring in $20,000 of revenue per game. There are 81 home games, so they would be responsible for $1.6m of revenue. That would cover a little less that 15% of Ichiro’s contract, ignoring the incentives and signing bonus.
But there is not a planeload of Japanese fans at every single game, so they could not be covering even that small percentage of Ichiro’s own contract, let alone that for other expensive players. It’s kind of nice that he’s generating revenue for souvenir shops and hotels, but revenue for souvenir shops and hotels has absolutely no bearing on the baseball team. If they concentrate on building a team that wins games, filling the seats will take care of itself, and it won’t matter if the butts in the seats belong to Japanese, Eskimos, Americans, Xhosas or Afrikaners. Oldest saying in baseball: “Winning is the best promotion.â€Â
The DIPS ERA stats I quoted on Burnett came from the ESPN sabermetric stat sheets, but I guess i could have pulled them from Baseball Prospectus, as well. There might be different methodologies in computing them, though. BP’s PERA, which I believe is the same thing, shows Burnett’s 2002 at 3.02, 2004 at 3.36, and doesn’t have the 2005 figure archived yet.
Colm, I’m just learning, as you are, on what some of these advanced stats mean. But based on what I’ve read, I’ve become comfortable with Defense & Park independent ERA. Burnett’s DIPS ERA is just great. If you take this D-ERA and put it in Safeco with our projected defense next year, I’m guessing he’ll look pretty good. Even if he gets no advantage from Safeco or the M’s dee, if his actual ERA is close to his D-ERA it will be a breath of fresh air for this staff.
#41: ERA+ is adjusted for ballpark factors (and league adjusted), and the back of the envelope projection I gave in #23 is for 114, a a little better than Matt Morris (112) and a little worse than Derek Lowe (122). Since ERA+ is league adjusted and it seems like the NL is the JV league of MLB, I don’t know if it’d be fair to expect a pitcher a little worse than the AL’s Tim Wakefield (117) and a little better than our own Jamie Moyer (104).
5/$65m is a lot of money to throw at “above average.” We’re not even talking Freddy Garcia performance (125) here, and we shipped that guy out of town last year with the big boss calling him the most overpaid pitcher in the AL.
2005 NL ERA+: http://tinyurl.com/7kvs8
2005 AL ERA+: http://tinyurl.com/a9ggb
42-the dh probably accounts for most of the difference you see between leagues. thats about 150-250 points of obp difference per lineup, and 200-400 points of slg. anybody know how to get daisuke matsuzaka’s stats for this year?
#43: The #8 hitter seems to be an easy out in NL lineups, too.
Anecdotally, I can also tell you I was at a couple of Astros/Padres games this summer where the hitters took the attitude that they should swing if the ball left the pitcher’s hand. Now I see how Pedro managed to throw the same number of IP as he did in Boston (at more than a point of ERA less, mind you) while sitting out the end of September, and why Greg Maddux has made it a point of pitching his entire career in the NL. “I like the strategy. I like to watch Bobby Cox manage.” Yeah sure, Greg. Whatever you say.
#43: dh … 150-250 points of obp difference per lineup
Oh yeah, OBP is kind of bogus there, because when hitting, the pitcher usually gives away an out with a sac bunt. While OBP punishes the sac fly, it does not punish the sac bunt! Strange, but true.
OBP: “Divide the total number of hits, bases on balls and times hit by pitch by the total of at-bats, bases on balls, times hit by pitch and sacrifice flies.”
40, Well, of course no one literally pays for himself. Do you think a CEO really does work that say is worth a million a year or more? The only guy who is paying for himself is the the one selling the $8 hot dog and his own wage is $8/hr. Anyway, what other player (besides Matsui) brings in tourist fans? How many people from Dominican Republic come to Boston every year to see Manny Ramirez? I know most people in that country don’t make much, but anyway, the point is he brings in extra business that your average player does not. Any FO of any team would love that because it is “extra” money in their pockets. BTW, you forgot to include the advertisement revenue (permanent signs & game-day signs) from Japanese companies. Plus winning doesn’t seem to bring in seats in all markets but that is another thread.
LB, looking at the ERA+ stats you quote for NL pitchers, I note that Suppan (4.52), Glavine (3.66), and Myers (4.04) all have higher FIP’s than Burnett (3.09). And yet, the ERA+ stat shows Suppan, Glavine and Myers as having superior ERA+. I guess I can’t bring myself to trust a proprietary type stat like ERA+ that shows Suppan, Glavine and Myers as superior pitchers to Burnett.
Again, looking at Fielding Independent ERA for NL pitchers, Clemens is #1 at 2.85, then Peavy (2.87), Carpenter (2.88), Pedro (2.93), Willis (2.97), Pettite (3.05), and Burnett (3.09). That’s some good company. Not just good, but by almost any measure these starters are the class of the NL.
I’m willing to overpay for Burnett. Suppan, Glavine and Myers? Not so much.
LB, RE: importance of Japan:
I don’t know how accurate the contract information is at mlb4u.com, but if you look at the Seattle page, under sponsors, you’ll find:
Nintendo, Master Card Japan, Ajinomoto, Hitachi, Sato Pharmaceutical, Sanyo
I’ll bet that accounts for far more revenue than your hypothetical trans-Pacific 747.
http://www.baseball-reference.com is up with 2005 statistics.
Just a quick glance at OPS:
Jeremy Reed = 81
Betancourt = 77
Lopez = 75
Beltre = 90
Torrealba = 68
Sexson = 140
Ichiro = 109
Ibanez = 111
Morse = 93
Snelling = 122
I don’t believe even outsized improvement next year leads to a league average offense. And the offense is in substantially better shape than the rotation. That’s okay, but it would be wise to temper expectations this offseason. A 75-win season next year would be a big success for Bavasi.
No, not at all. The 05 Ms were a 75 win team according RS/RA. This team wins 75 next year, Bavasi should be fired because that’s no improvement.
9 & 10 – Totally agree. It can’t be said more clearly than this:
Read the Forbes article at #9 above. There will be no tradition of winning in Seattle until the ownership problem is fixed.
Is there any chance the Public Facilities District that controls Safeco Filed can be radicalized? ‘Cause we’re gettin’ shafted.
#48: Yes, “Japanese advertisers” is the stock answer for why it is good to overpay for Ichiro. I’ve heard that before.
Earlier, Ray (#31) was trying to convince us that we should care how much Seattle hotels and souvenir shops made as a side-effect of having Ichiro on the roster. As a baseball fan, I am not convinced. I don’t care how much the hoteliers and souvenir guy make! Let them make their money the old fashioned way.
Build a winning team and people will come. White, yellow, pink, blue, you name it. In this town, people will come. (And if they don’t, it’s time to move the team.)
The Mariners make an immense amount of money on their team stores, so in many cases the souveneir guy is the team.
#53: I appreciate that, but we’re back to the 747 full of Japanese tourists in the souvenir stores every day to get the numbers to balance out. I know there are some Japanese customers in there, but it’s not that crowded.
Plenty of people bought Boston Red Sox merchandise last year from their team store (which isn’t really theirs, but that’s a different discussion), and they didn’t have a single Japanese player on the roster. I believe Alan Embree and Mark Bellhorn gear is now available at a significant discount, FWIW.
49, Wow! Chris Snelling was #2 behind Sexson. I know it’s a small sample but I think we could all expect Snelling to do that for a whole “healthy” season. I bet FO were wetting there lips thinking Snelling is the “sock” they need — and only for $350,000. Now, they can’t pocket the extra money saved. Too bad for poor Lincoln.
Ichiro was #4? That is funny and sad for this team.
#52, well, if you don’t want to care then you don’t want to care. And me trying to convince people to care. Oh sir, you flatter me. I was actually just trying to make a joke about VORP originally. Then, I was trying to just make a point that Ichiro brings in extra money for FO, which seems to disappear every year. So, if you don’t care about how your team’s FO spends their money, you certainly have that right.
Where do you get this 747 analogy? Who’s to say 400 a game is realistic? It might be 20, it might be 2000. Consider also that you can purchase Ms gear over the internet. I bet more than 400 people a day surf through the Ms online team store. Doesn’t someone who comments here live in Japan? How much Ms merchandise do you see over in Japan?
Also, what about the extended TV contract into Japan, plus the more visible scouting presense the Ms get in the east rim? Ichiro benefits the Ms greatly exceeding his salary. And that’s not at all mentioning why trading him this year is baseball unsound.
#56: The 747 analogy is called “back of the envelope” mathematics. If we don’t know if the number is 20 or 2000, we can test the extreme case that the daily flights between Japan and SeaTac are packed with baseball tourists. Of course, they’re not. The point is that even if they were, Japanese tourism cannot be the case for Ichiro’s being on the roster.
You raise two interesting points about merchandise sales and TV rights which many people assume they understand. Here’s the bad news: purchase all the M’s gear you want over the Internet or anywhere else — the profits get split 30 ways for any merchandise with an MLB logo on it, whether it says “Mariners” or “New York Chokers.” By selling it out of their own team store, the M’s get to keep the retail markup. Woo hoo! Seems fair to me, since they have to pay the staff and keep the lights burning. But George Steinbrenner and John Henry still get their cut of every Ichiro T-shirt.
Similarly, the television revenue for out of market games is split 30 ways, whether the good people in Tokyo tune in to watch Ichiro or Matsui. I think now the Tadahito Iguchi fan club will grow by a few members.
If you want to make the baseball case for keeping Ichiro, that’s fine. If you want to make the Japanese advertising case for keeping him, that’s a makeable case. If you are trying to say that the M’s concern themselves for one second about the profits of the Sports Den or the Executive Pacific Plaza Hotel, then they’re not doing their jobs.
profits get split 30 ways for any merchandise with an MLB logo
I meant the licensing fee, of course. NYY has one of the most popular logos in the world, but Steinbrenner does not get to keep all the proceeds.