Matsuzaka to be posted?

Jeff · October 11, 2005 at 11:29 am · Filed Under Mariners 

We with our ears to the ground at USS Mariner Labs have been hearing rumors for a few days that Daisuke Matsuzaka would be posted, allowing him to come to the United States. Given that there is a lot of ground between here and Japan, it’s tough to know how reliable our ears have been in gauging things.

Now, Dayn Perry says that he’s available — albeit with no substantiation or specifics.

Also on the market is Daisuke Matsuzaka of Japan. He’s a gyroball specialist whose stuff Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus likens to that of John Smoltz — hard and heavy. He’s certain to be hotly sought by high-revenue teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.

Take this detail-light report with a grain of salt, or perhaps a portion of soy sauce. But combine this with what we’ve been hearing and the fact that the timing is right — Bobby Valentine’s Chiba Lotte Marines just knocked Matsuzaka’s Seibu Lions out of the playoffs — and I’d say that the rumor stands a good chance of proving true.

Why post on this topic so much right now, while we’re still speculating? If the report is correct, teams could start the action quickly.

Under the posting system, after the player’s name and status is officially declared to American teams through the commissioner’s office, teams have four days to post their bids for the rights to negotiate with the player. The winning bidder then gets 30 days to negotiate a contract.

A news report doesn’t consitute an official announcement. But if there’s something to this, we could have a lot more to talk about soon.


64 Responses to “Matsuzaka to be posted?”

  1. yteimlad on October 11th, 2005 4:23 pm

    unrelated but deserves attention- the reds outrighted chris booker today and he rufused assignment, so he becomes a free agent.
    here are his stats for this year at aaa- in a park that had a 1049 park factor last year (dont know this year’s).

    65 ip- 91 so/21 bb/ 2 hr/ 45 h (dont know the babip but 91 so is really all i need to see.)

    he’s right handed and 28 years old. sounds like a great low risk addition to any bullpen to me, what could he command in the open market? probably only a minor league contract- but at most as a major leaguer he would command the minimum.

  2. David J Corcoran on October 11th, 2005 4:30 pm

    50: Hansen is a FA following the end of the WS

    I’m wondering about why Kida is still on the 40m.

  3. Evan on October 11th, 2005 4:35 pm

    That’s because the Yankees also have to cry poverty in order to try and get some kind of subsidy for a new stadium

    I mentioned more because, looking at their current commitments and roster construction, there’s no way I can make that team competitive next year without shelling out some cash.

  4. Mr. Egaas on October 11th, 2005 4:59 pm

    Haha, off-topic, but it made me laugh.

    The Poll on is “What is Willie Bloomquists Best Position?”

    If only “Riding the pine” were an option.

  5. David J Corcoran on October 11th, 2005 5:14 pm

    54: I can’t believe anybody actually voted for “left field”

    I mean…I can see 2nd or short…but if Willie is our LFer next year…I’ll cry.

  6. ChrisK on October 11th, 2005 5:23 pm

    The Poll should actually read: Is Willie Bloomqust the most overhyped 25th man in the history of Major League Baseball?

  7. Ace of Spades on October 11th, 2005 5:48 pm

    Right, from the mouth of Dayn Perry The All Knowing. The guy probably mispronounces Ichiro’s name on purpose to further spite the Mariners. I don’t know what business he has in proclaiming that Matsuzaka will be posted.

    That said, Matsuzaka’s salary isn’t that high in Japan, along the order of about 2.5 million U.S. I think. I’d err on the side of 7 million than 10.

  8. pensive on October 11th, 2005 5:49 pm

    Agree with #47 regarding payroll. If it improves the club to another level 8 to 10 million more for a year should not be a deal breaker.

    Granted Dave has a much more educated perspective on this as I have no idea how Mariners payroll efffects minor league, scouting, draft and other operations necessary to build and maintain a winning franchise.

    I do know that viewing the Future Forty it is not overly encouraging. Not very many players with better than average potential.

    Hope team makes moves to at least get be in contention through most of summer. Or perhaps a move to NL West would create a better chance of contending.

  9. msb on October 11th, 2005 6:41 pm

    #50– I liked Rotoworld’s crack about Ojeda — “Ojeda is guaranteed $350,000 in 2006 and then a $25,000 buyout of a $500,000 option for 2007, so the Rockies shouldn’t have done this unless they were serious about carrying him as a backup. If Ojeda is the backup, that would likely mean that Danny Ardoin is the starter, leaving the Rockies with an ugly catching situation once again. Ojeda hit .256/.322/.426 in 156 AB for the Padres in 2004, but his average dropped to .147 in 102 AB last season. It’s anyone’s guess what he’ll do next year.”

  10. PositivePaul on October 11th, 2005 11:41 pm

    Roll the dice on “Dice-K!”

    I, for one, am tired of trying to figure out how much the M’s budget is for player payroll changes. Unless you’re Howard Lincoln, Chuck Armstrong, or Bill Bavasi, you cannot and will not know. You can speculate over a range, but even still, that’s just speculation. No one here knows how much they have to and will choose to spend.

    The real question is — do they have enough money to make some major signings? Again, it’s unproductive speculation at best. But, indeed, even if Howard Lincoln himself blasts the Forbes figures, there are figures out there that say they have plenty of cash to spend on payroll. They have the cash to spend on Burnett/Millwood, “Dice”, and to find that “lefty sock” they’ve been looking for since Jr. left.

    The question we can debate, then, is should they?

    No one can know what they will do. I mean, really, which of us even fathomed that they’d actually be able to lure Beltre to sign here? Like watching the Seahawks, we kind of expected the M’s to choke at the last minute. I was blown away enough by the Beltre signing that I even went in front of God and everyone at Fan Fest to personally thank Howard Lincoln on behalf of M’s bloggers everywhere (and even ceremoniously shook his hand). I’m hoping that Howard/Chuck/Bill have another offseason like last year’s. Aside from the Pokey Reese debacle, I’d say nabbing Beltre, Sexson and YuBet alone were huge moves.

    That said — the M’s have very, very funny accounting logic. And, reportedly, the only direct involvement the Japanese majority owners have in the team is with bringing over Japanese players. Now, I realize that Mr. Yamauchi transferred his stake over to his company, Nintendo, so that may have changed. Still, if the M’s want Daisuke bad enough, they’ll do what it takes to get him. Even if it means applying his 2006, 2008, and 2010 salaries to the “International Player Signings” Swiss Bank Account.

    From what I’ve read, let’s roll the dice…

  11. DMZ on October 12th, 2005 8:16 am

    No one here knows how much they have to and will choose to spend.

    Umm… I disagree. And taking that logical fallacy to the extreme, why discuss any team move or possible team move? We should sit back and accept what comes our way.

    Anyway — on a side note, I just accidentally deleted the wrong comment out of this thread trying to get something else… so apologies to the innocent casualty and poster there.

  12. PositivePaul on October 12th, 2005 10:39 am

    …why discuss any team move or possible team move? We should sit back and accept what comes our way.

    Because that’s what a lot of us readers come here for. Budget is an entirely different matter. I respect the USSM staff’s insight on players highly, but I’m just tired of everyone throwing out numbers as to what the M’s will budget for player payroll. We can speculate what the figure is around, and we have a pretty good collection of information that can help us deduce what the M’s are under obligation for next season, payroll-wise. Still, how much the incentives and “International Player” fund, nevermind whether or not they’re applying Spiezio’s 3-some-odd million to the 2005 or the 2006 budget, all count against the 2006 payroll is unknown to us, at best. They protect their books much more closely than the U.S. government protects its own spies, so we can only throw out generalities as to what the M’s can spend, and have no earthly idea what they will spend (and they surprised us all last season by signing Beltre).

    The reason behind this, really is that I’m very frustrated knowing that they have the revenue to support spending like the Angels, but don’t. Ultimately, the M’s have the revenue to sign Millwood, Burnett, Daisuke (if available) AND Jones, even if we ignore the fact that they all won’t, for one reason or another, sign here.
    Much more productive discussion centers around who they should get, and why they should or shouldn’t get more than one of the biggest names on the free agent market this offseason. I’m tired of nit-picking over whether they have $17 million, $20 million, or $26.79386250943 million to spend.

    I’m just proposing that we go under the assumption that the M’s have enough money in the coffers to do what it takes to fill the holes they know they have. Whether that figure is $15 million or $30 million is less important than who those players should be, and what it will take to land them. I think we can all agree that they have enough dough to bring in Millwood, Burnett AND Jones — even if that totals $30 million per season, without having to dump existing players merely because of salary (though dumping them for other reasons certainly is valid). They nabbed two of ESPN’s top-10 free agents last season (not that ESPN is a better sorter of free agents than this place — it certainly isn’t), and there’s no financial reason why they can’t do it again this offseason.

    Whether or not they should, of course, is what the debate around here should be centered around.

  13. ray on October 13th, 2005 1:12 am

    If the M’s want to corner the Japanese market again they have to get this guy. If some team that already doesn’t have a Japanese player gets him some revenue the M’s now get (i.e., Ads) will be lost to that team. I’m sure they have already felt the effects of Hideki in NY and Iguchi in Chicago (a liitle less though). Woohoo! Imagine Ichiro in RF while Matsuzaka is pitching to Jojima catching. There is some news!

  14. Jerry on October 14th, 2005 5:15 pm

    This is a little bit of a delayed reaction to issue of how much the M’s have to spend, and how they use it.

    I am assuming that the M’s will have $25 million to spend. However, if they don’t bring back Meche, Moyer, Franklin, or Guardado, it shoudl be more than that. The way that I figured the numbers, it came out to be around 25 million in free money not counting any free agents or Meche. If Guardado is not back, that adds 8 big ones to the tally. That is a lot of money to spend.

    The other thing that I think is incorrect is the amount that Matsuzaka will command if he is posted. I don’t see any way that he gets more than what Hideki Matsui got a few years back, adjusted for inflation. I think that 8 million would be a reasonable bet.

    But sticking with the $25 million, this is how I could see it breaking down:

    AJ Burnett, 5 years, 60 million – 12 mil
    Matsuzaka, 3 years, 25 million – 8 mil
    Kenji Jojima, 2 years, 8 million – 4 mil

    I just added in Jojima because I think that this is an interesting idea. Those three additions only ring up to $24 million. Backloading, and/or bailing on Eddie would radically change their position. But these three additions would make the M’s quite a lot better, and they would still be within their means.

    The obvious issue is the lack of a lefty hitter or someone in left field. However, this is where the M’s get crafty. Looking for an interesting trade would not be that difficult. I really think that the Nationals are an interesting potential trade partner. Adding someone like Wilkerson might cost them some prospects, but I think that a package of Mateo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and a lower level prospect might get it done, given how bad Wilkerson struggled last year. If not, what about Ryan Church? He wouldn’t cost as much as Wilkerson, but is a guy with similar skills. If that is a no go, what about Termell Sledge? He is hopelessly stuck in the Nats OF backlog. If he is healthy, he still has a chance to be a really solid hitter. Both Sledge and Church would not cost the M’s too much in prospects, or in payroll.

    If they don’t work out, the M’s always can look at Morse, Dobbs, Strong, Snelling, Choo, Bohn, or some other player who can fill in.

    Fixing the mess in LF won’t be that difficult. I would rather see the M’s go get some starters for the top of the rotation. If Felix is our third starter next year, the M’s will be in great shape. The offense is more likely to fix itself through players coming back from down years or young hitters finding their comfort zones than the pitching staff is. Thus, I think that M’s would be smart to do so if they can add two legit starters.

    They clearly have the money. I don’t think that the contract numbers I posted above are too far off. That does not include backloading (as Spiezio, Ibanez, and Piñeiro come off the books in 2007), getting by without Guardado, or somehow finding a salary dump for Piñeiro. Add in those factors, the and M’s could do more.