News, M’s and otherwise
Leo Mazzone, legendary pitching coach and possible Hall of Fame candidate, left for Baltimore after a brief flirtation with the Yankees. Orioles manager Sam Perlozzo is a long-time friend. Too bad the Mariners didn’t get him, of course, but whaddayagonnado.
Former Mariner pitching coach Bryan Price got shut out of managerial jobs and took a place-holder position as pitching coach for former Mariner manager Bob Melvin with the Diamondbacks.
Joe Girardi is the new Marlins manager.
Discussion on who the Mariners might still get rages. Larry LaRue in the TNT files a report that makes it seem as if organizational candidates Jim Slaton and Rafael Chaves are forgotten (which is odd).
On the original short list of possible candidates to succeed Bryan Price in Seattle two weeks ago, Slaton hasn’t yet interviewed – and Chaves said he hasn’t even been told he is a candidate.
LaRue also gets some quotes from Guardado, who’s annoyed the team didn’t immediately tell him whether they’d be picking up his team option.
“If they said, ‘Look, we want you back but not at the larger figure,’ fine, I’d understand that,†Guardado said. “Or if they said, ‘We don’t want you back, period,’ I’d understand that, too.
“But why push it until the free-agency period begins? Why not just talk to me now? If they don’t want me back, no hard feelings – but let me start to explore my other options as soon as I can.
“I’ve shown them respect for two years, and I’d love to come back and be part of what could happen here. Just talk to me.â€Â
And I include this only because it seems to pop up on every freaking comment thread, Bob Finnigan would like us to know that Ichiro is sad and neglected.
And the World Series is White Sox v Astros.
Comments
61 Responses to “News, M’s and otherwise”
I don’t want to read too much into this, but I have to wonder if this is a sign that they are not going to pick up Eddie’s option.
I hope that they don’t. I like Eddie, but he is not likely be in the team’s long-term plans. If he picks up his option, the M’s should try to trade him. At 4.5 million, he would likely appeal to some team.
Also, I wonder if, should the M’s and Guardado both decline their options, if the M’s would offer him arbitration. It would be nice to get some draft picks back for losing him.
In this market, I think that Guardado will be able to get a 2-year deal from some team. It is looking like Wagner might resign, Wickman is also a good bet to resign, and BJ Ryan looks like he wants to be a Yankee. That doesn’t leave a whole lot on the market, and there should be a lot of teams looking.
It will be interesting to see how this whole thing works out.
On the news front: With the Girardi signing and Torre choosing to remain a Yankee, I wonder what Piniella’s next plans are. Expos?
I’ve read Lou saying that he is enjoying broadcasting, but… I’m not sure how many times I can take hearing analysis as insightful as, “I agree with you”.
Maybe Sweet Sweet Lou would like a turn as our pitching coach.
Eddie makes some good points. Even if the M’s don’t know which direction they are going yet, a simple, 5-minute phone call to say just that would go a long way.
#2, shouldn’t that be “Timmy, I agree with you”? Some have rumored Lou to the National’s depending on who buys the team.
re: Guardado, Larue did point out that the FO may be focussing on hiring coaches before they pick up options — maybe they need to get Special Consultant Pat Gillick and his EverReady Phone to do some in-house schmoozing calls.
This could be a sign that Bill doesn’t yet know if he’s picking up Eddie option, which could mean anything.
White Sox-Astros. I predict a total of 12 runs will be scored between them.
This wouldn’t be the first time Eddie’s whined about his contract situation. In his last season as a Twin, he complained about not being contacted about a contract extension during the middle of a pennant race. This seems like a busy time of the year for all front offices, I would say that Eddie just needs to chill out and wait.
Evan, tonight or the whole series?
To many people, this may be a unexciting WS with the strength of pitching on both sides. I also believe the scores will be low all the way through.
I’ve been trying to predict a winner for this series but the two teams are very similar in pitching, hitting, ERA and defense. Neither team is battling major injuries, both should be well rested and have their rotations set and each team has some emotional baggage that winning would help resolve. Houston with Biggio and Bagwell never have been to the WS, the Sox with their WS shame from the past.
This may well become incredible set of games that becomes a battle of wills. I’m looking forward to the drama.
Eddie was on KJR with Mitch yesterday am, humming much the same tune. I came into it a bit late, but I never heard Mitch (or Eddie) mention the fact that Eddie also has an option that he can exercise . . . instead it was just Mitch fawning over what a gamer Eddie was all year and agreeing with Eddie’s perception that he has been “disrespected” by the failure of management to call and tell him what’s up. Eddie clearly was looking for some sort of agreement between his option number and that of the Ms, though, and he said he was willing to take a long term or one year deal. He said his early September swoon was merely the inevitable “bump in the hill” (his term, not mine) that all relievers hit during the year, and not the result of some lingering arm issues. He also claimed to be superior to those players who opt for surgery because he did what it took for him to pitch this year, rather than having surgery and then sitting out to heal.
The Sox’ run of complete games against the Angels seems to have a lot of commentators convinced that the starting pitching advantage is theirs. But here’s what I find on hardballtimes.com:
Pitcher K/G BB/G G/F *xFIP
Pettitte 7.5 1.8 1.87 3.27
Clemens 8.5 2.8 1.66 3.44
Oswalt 7.0 1.8 1.68 3.58
Buehrle 5.9 1.6 1.40 4.0
Garcia 5.9 2.4 1.59 4.12
Garland 4.9 2.0 1.50 4.35
Contreras 6.9 3.3 1.25 4.44
The *xFIP is an adjusted ERA with external and random effects factored out, to the best of the Hardball Times’ guys abilities (in particular, it correct for both the Voros and Shandler effects about hits on balls in play and home runs on fly balls). By this measure, of the seven starting pitchers with > 162 IP, the three best all wear Astros uniforms, and the other four do not. Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt all strike out more guys and get more ground balls than their counterparts at Comiskey do, without significant disadvantages in other areas of the game.
Of course anything can happen in a short series; either team can get on a hot streak, as the Sox rotation did against Hatcher’s Heroes (by the way, has any public attention been given to the conjuction of an aggressive-hitting preacher with an opposition complete-game streak?). But in terms of expected performance, I do like the Astros’ top three against anyone the Sox can put out there against them.
(The White Sox do have a legitimate advantage on defense, however, by about .713 to .706.)
Evan, tonight or the whole series?
The whole series. 12 runs.
That said, the White Sox bullpen might be rusty. Most of them haven’t pitched in 15 days.
a Yankee Fan over at Batgirl’s site noted (with an brief yet eloquent editorial ‘dammit’) the brief list of Clemens, Pettitte, Hernandez, & Contreras
#7– I think Guardado is one of those guys like Lou that don’t enjoy to chance to ‘explore all their options’, they just want the darned thing done. and FWIW, I find it hard to believe that Guardado was claiming to be superior to anyone…
The season has been over just over 2 weeks. Seems unreasonable for Guardado to expect the FO to have all the plans decided upon for next season. These athletes need to get over themselves when they talk about being “disrespected” by the organization.
When new ownership takes controls of the Nats, anything is possible, so Lou could turn up there (he seems to be enjoying his commentator role on Fox though, so who knows; perhaps he’ll do that for a couple of years while waiting out Torre’s contract). They’re going to have to carry Frank Robinson out of baseball in a body bag, so if he doesn’t keep that job he’ll turn up somewhere else. If for no other reason than to make sure there’s at least some minority representation in the MLB coaching ranks (and how many non “old white guys” have the M’s interviewed?)
As for the WS, this is exactly the matchup I was hoping for (given the contenders). The networks probably hate the idea of a series of pitching duels, but a bunch of one-run games sound delicious to me (as long as the officiating isn’t deciding them arbitrarily). The sox are unlikely to pitch complete games in an NL park, but they just might hit a few more dingers in Minute Maid. And given the atmosphere there during the NLCS, and the fact all of Chicago has rediscovered the Sox, it should be a pretty electric series.
From Fox’s point of view, the worst thing about a pitching duel is that the short innings will make their 2:30 breaks between half innings seem longer. If the pitchers routinely retire the other side in under 10 pitches (and with these hitters, that’s not unreasonable), the coverage will last maybe 1:40 followed by a much longer break.
Do those xFIP numbers take into account the DH difference between the leagues? You’d certainly expect an NL pitcher to get more K/9 when he faces a pitcher 2-3 times per game.
That was the first I saw of the piece on Ichiro. I would like to be a fly on the wall (with, uh, a Japanese fly translating for me) when Ichiro takes to Yamauchi. I would love to hear the call Howard Lincoln gets afterwards.
Ralph: Excellent question (and one that I should have thought of before posting).
THT says that their FIP stats include “a league-specific factor … to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number.”
Also, note that the NL vs. AL advantage in strikeouts is only 0.41 (6.57 vs. 6.16). So most of the Houston advantage remains.
With regards to Ichiro, without any factual basis, I would lean away from him being “sad” or “tired” and towards “tired of not living up to his own expectations.” There’s something about the guy that has always reminded me a little of other sports stars…Barry Sanders with the NFL Lions for example…where they hit the point of no matter their individual success and the record books, they want a team success. That said, I would also imagine there’s some cultural issues going on here as well. The article indicates that Ichiro will visit Yamauchi and indicate how he and the team will do better next year. It’s also indicated that Ichiro would not ask the team for a trade.
Now to really whack the hornet’s nest…should the M’s consider trading Ichiro? My first reaction is a deafening “NO WAY!” But if you subscribe to the idea that any trade is possible depending on what the other team is willing to give you back, then should it be at least considered? I’d love to see Ichiro complete his MLB career in Seattle. He’s a unique talent. Great offensively and defensively. To even think of a trade immediately brings up the questions of who would lead off and who would replace him in the field? All that said, none of the teams in the playoffs this year had a guy in Ichiro’s class. The M’s did, but they obviously need more…and maybe that’s wearing the man down as much as anything?
#19 — hmm. multi-year contract (as opposed to single-year contracts for the last decade), significant pay increase, excellent relationship with manager, wealthy franchise with (hopefully) improved front office (but sadly no Schuerholz) in one’s home state.
Not sure exactly how THT finds their league adjustment factor, but the difference between the leagues extends beyond the K/9 rates. The NL has a 2:1 “advantage” over the AL in sacrifice hits per plate appearance, so those NL pitchers are getting a lot more free outs. Also, they give out more free passes, a ratio of about 7:5, which are presumably to the defense’s advantage. The NL did have a higher unintentional walk per plate appearance rate, though, about 0.077 to 0.073. All of these are more or less fielding independent.
My favorite league comparison stats? This goes hands down to the differences between NL P and AL DH. ISO for NL P was 0.040 to the AL DH value of 0.180. SO/BB for NL P was 9.92(!) to AL DH’s 1.84 SO/BB. I don’t know how much this all washes out to, but it’s always a bit jarring to me to see how big some of the differences can be.
I just wanted to respond to the comment in the post about Chaves and Slaton being ignored. Even though the article indicates they haven’t been called, it also quotes Hargrove as saying that they’re both on the list and will be interviewed:
“‘The process is going forward, and we have gotten our list together and Jim Slaton and Rafael Chaves are on it. We’ve gotten a long list together, slowly but surely culling it now – and they will both be interviewed,’ Mariners manager Mike Hargrove said. ‘The original number of serious candidates hasn’t changed, but the list from which we pick those did grow.’”
It seems like Hargrove is suggesting that the issue is not Chaves and Slater being passed over, but simply that the Mariners are continuing to expand the scope of their interviews, which doesn’t necessarily seem like a bad thing.
I think I would like to see Chaves get hired, based on his impressive record at Tacoma (as a Tacoma resident, it was a relief this season to be able to read about another solid Raniers pitching performance and temporarily forget about Piniero’s latest start) and his apparent rapport with a certain vital member of our pitching staff.
But, I’m not entirely clear on exactly what skills pitching coaches need – so I have a few questions.
First, is there any credence (in terms of empirical evidence or otherwise) to the notion that a pitching coach having a good “rapport” with his/her pitchers will make him/her more effective?
Second, is there any empirical data/theoretical approach that can answer the question of whether or not experience in the major leagues is necessary for a pitching coach (seemingly the major question about Chaves)?
Third, is there any way to determine conclusively whether or not a team’s good pitching performance is directly related to its pitching coach in a given year? Whenever the Astros pitching coach is interviewed by the broadcasters, the graphic mentions that he coached them to the lowest starter’s ERA in the league…but how much of this is his skill and how much is simply Oswalt, Pettite and Clemens being good pitchers? A sub-question under this would be whether or not Tacoma has historically had good pitching under Chaves, or if this year is the primary good indicator.
- Peter
Re: “…Guardado said. “Or if they said, ‘We don’t want you back, period,’ I’d understand that, too…â€Â. Look, the real story here is why isn’t the front office strategy one of pro-active and aggressive behavior to make sure no rock is left unturned and at the very least retain all your options? IF you really are motivated by the un-stoppable desire to go all the way, then you make sure you eliminated as much risk as possible, especially with the things you can control or greatly influence. If you are not deeply motivated that way, you don’t even think about the effect you have if you don’t call people like Guardado and say here is the plan, “how are you doing?â€Â. It’s the difference between being employed by someone with a business based “mission statement†vs. the personal desire, authorization, but moreover the expectation that you WILL succeeded “or elseâ€Â. We have seen this same behavior when the key front office staff went on vacation in Hawaii during the Alex negotiations or when they didn’t even make an offer to Randy that summer before he left.
Players like Eddie have been around long enough to sense people’s motivation. I think some are better at it than others. These types of little telegraphs fit well with this theory when you realize that the owner of this team has never attended a game and by any other measure never expressed any other interest. You can bet however that as a successful top Japanese businessman that he has one simple rule for the highly disposable front office: don’t loose me any money at the end of the year. Big difference in motivation between that and wanting to win. Wining is but one, and to a varying degree, way to accomplish that.
We have seen this same behavior when the key front office staff went on vacation in Hawaii during the Alex negotiations or when they didn’t even make an offer to Randy that summer before he left.
Whaaaaaaaaaat?
Interesting note on the Astros in the WS. That now leaves Seattle as the only city with an NFL and MLB team without an apperance in the Super Bowl or World Series.
FWIW, the last time he had an option picked up by the Twins, it wasn’t until 29th of October. They declined his option last year on Nov. 1st.
In regards to #23, that might be the most obsurd and obscure comment regarding that issue. First off, how can anyone prove that they were on vacation in Hawaii? Outside of receipts, internet hearsay can’t be taken seriously.
As for RJ, lets not forget that he wasn’t that far off from back problems and he wanted a ton of money.
This situation with Eddie is probably not as convoluted as it appears. The M’s obviously have other needs they need to address (coaches) and will make their decision on what to do with Eddie before the deadline. And odds are that they have already made their decision.
Bob Finnigan is the worst. A reporter who wants us to believe he’s got a big scoop…what a shock! The Barry Sanders analogy is a good one, DJ (#19). Private and spiritual men, like Ichiro & Barry, reveal only as much to reporters as they need to. Apparently, this time it was too much for Finnigan to handle without drawing a bunch of false, alarmist conclusions. I’m sure the conversation with Mr. Yamauchi will be far more substantive.
#24. Gillick, Pelekoudas, Piniella were there. The Lincoln and Armstrong families were on a vacation planned a year earlier. Before they left, Armstrong called Boras to say they could cancel if he wanted them there. Boras said not to. Armstrong & Lincoln both said they made sure that Boras had their cell phone numbers. Boras didn’t call either of them when negotiations with Gillick were going on, and then after the deal with Texas was made, complained that their absence proved ownership wasn’t as committed.
Blaine Nenham actually had a good line about it at the time: “It is too bad Rodriguez tried to shift the focus to what the Mariners didn’t do in negotiations away from what the Rangers did. If Lincoln had flown in from Hawaii to be with Rodriguez it might have made a difference, but only if he’d brought an extra $150 million with him.”
Hey, have you guys ever considered opening a forum here? You know, somewhere where your loyal readers can post their own threads and such. It seems that, especially during the off-season, people here want a chance to talk about whatever wild hair theories they might have, and instead of hijacking threads and such…
Yes.
At the risk of being off-topic (although this is sort of an open thread anyway) — that was an encouraging article about Clement on the M’s site yesterday. I know it is mostly a propaganda site, but still …
I don’t give a crap what the Ms did or did not do re: Alex. Unless there was a way to get him signed before Hicks opened his wallet. I was all too happy to see Alex get paid ~25 mil/year somewhere else.
Guardado is not an innocent bystander here. He has some financial self-interest in a quick resolution, as an early denial of the team option would give Guardado extra time to gauge whether another team would give him a better deal than his player option.
In the meantime, the front office should be checking other teams’ interest in trading for Guardado — if other teams will trade for Guardado at $6.5 million, the M’s know they will lose him unless they exercise the team option.
Eddie’s under contract until a specific date. He’s not instantly able to negotiate with other teams as soon as we decline his option. In fact, if we decline his option and he declines his option, we’d still have exclusive negotiating rights until the arbitration deadline.
So Eddie isn’t being disadvantaged by this at all.
I take it you dismissed the idea?
I don’t think it’s fair to say they’ve dismissed the idea. They just haven’t done it.
Draw what conclusions you will.
“He’s not instantly able to negotiate with other teams as soon as we decline his option.”
That is true, but that is not what I said. He could not directly negotiate with other teams until the free agency period begins. But in the interim, other teams would know for certain that Guardado will be a free agent and the amount they would need to beat. A team can convey its level of interest in a player to that player’s agent without direct negotiations (through the media, mutual acquaintances, etc.). A team that wants Guardado as a free agent is not going to tip its hand until after the M’s announce their decision.
“In fact, if we decline his option and he declines his option, we’d still have exclusive negotiating rights until the arbitration deadline.”
That is incorrect. Once Guardado filed for free agency and the free agency period began, Guardado could negotiate with any team.
I don’t mean it in a bad way, I know it’s a lot of work to run forums, but there’s plenty of us that would be willing to chip in manpower to help if they wanted to. I know I would.
As far as Ichiro, this is hardly surprising to me. Ichiro becomes very disappointed in himself and a bit obsessive when he feels he is not living up to his full potential (which is most of the time) and also when the team is not doing well. One of my favorite baseball books is “Ichiro on Ichiro” which is about 150 pages of transcripts from personal interviews with Ichiro on all things baseball.
re #23, #24:
Howard Lincoln was on vacation in Kona during the December meetings in 2000. Among the Mariner “slights” proferred by A-Rod after he signed with Texas was that the Mariners didn’t bother to send the team President to be part of the negotiations, whereas Tom Hicks personally wooed him and made him feel important.
A couple of stories on this:
Rodriguez says Mariners ‘didn’t give me an option’
What next for Mariners?
Just another stray comment in defense of Yamauchi, who is one hell of a valuable constant in Seattle baseball. The guy has seen baseball games and apparently knows baseball well. The reason he hasn’t seen a Mariners game until now is that he has a pathological fear of flying. He did say in 2001, however, that he would make the trip if the Mariners made it to the WS.
He could take a nice luxury cruise over the Pacific to Alaska and then take ground transport from there, if he left at the start of the ALCS.
#41, see #29
And the World Series is White Sox v Astros.
These would presumably be the same White Sox that “couldn’t sustain their lead” and were “poorly managed” as we were assured here early in the season. Mid-season, I got an email assuring me that this stance hadn’t changed, and the proof was in all the one-run games the team had won . . . which couldn’t be sustained since it rested on the heads of Gardner and Buerhle.
Anyone want to re-examine assumptions?
BASEBALL COLUMNS – I understand that, for kicks, one of the pasttimes of the good folks in St. Louis is reading the columns on the baseball pages of the Seattle dailies.
Yeah, that Gardner kid played real well down the stretch. Anybody who knows anything about baseball knew Gardner would keep it up.
They didn’t sustain their lead. The White Sox had been way out in front, and it ended up being quite a close race.
Ozzie turned out to be a fine manager of his pitching staff. He still knows nothing about hitting or baserunning, though, which is why we’re anticipating a low-scoring series.
Ozzie turned out to be a fine manager of his pitching staff.
Yeah. His strategy: Leave the starter in. Leave the starter in. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Has Bavasi been told yet if he’s back? He might not be calling players about next season until after he knows he’s really calling the shots. Could be that they’re waiting to see if Cashman’s available?
Yeah. His strategy: Leave the starter in. Leave the starter in. Wash, rinse, repeat.
It was good enough for every team in the first 70+ years of baseball, wasn’t it?
ESPN online has a pair of articles about Bagwell & Thomas as (mostly) spectators for this Series… which included the wierd fact I’d missed, that they were both born May 27, 1968, (as well as both MVPs in ’94)
“It was good enough for every team in the first 70+ years of baseball, wasn’t it?”
Is it clear that it was good enough for all those teams? After all, only one team won the World Series each year. Seems like a lot of them had some room for improvement.
These would presumably be the same White Sox that “couldn’t sustain their lead†and were “poorly managed†as we were assured here early in the season. Mid-season, I got an email assuring me that this stance hadn’t changed, and the proof was in all the one-run games the team had won . . . which couldn’t be sustained since it rested on the heads of Gardner and Buerhle.
Anyone want to re-examine assumptions?
They didn’t sustain their lead. Feel free to look at Chicago’s pre-ASB and post-ASB records. The only reason Chicago’s in the World Series now is that Cleveland choked badly in their last six games.
Regardless of the absolute value of a ‘closer,’ Eddie unquestionably had a good year in that role, despite pitching with diminished velocity after rehabbing his shoulder instead of surgery. He wore down in September, but then he was being used too much in August, and there was the shoulder issue as well. All this while pitching for a dog-faced team that belly-flopped deep into the tank, especially during the last six weeks, which said team is also going nowhere next year most likely. Eddie gets on the horn and says, freely transcribed, “I’d like to be rewarded for showing up and playing hard among a bunch of guys who didn’t do either. Where’s organizational loyalty?”
If the Ms don’t pick up Eddie at the team option, he’s gone. I hope everyone advocating the team decline that option recognizes that. Does anyone think Eddie can’t beat one year at four and a half on the open market? I’m sure he can, and I’m sure that his agent is sure as well. Yes, there are many quality closing arms on the market this year, although as comments above state, some of the best ones may not end up entering the open market after all. Arguably, many of those arms are ‘better’ as closers than Eddie from a quantitative standpoint, again with the real value of closer being subject to discussion. Many teams value consistency; even more value the ‘proven closer.’ I’m not saying such teams are smarter or even smart; Troy Percival’s deal last year is evidence to the contrary—but it’s also evidence that there are such teams out there.
Eddie is NOT going to take the player option again. He had to last year, and it was fair: no one knew if he was even going to pitch in ’05. Come the time, he closed, effectively, and all year long. His higher pay option was intended to be for closing, effectively. So the Ms declining the team option will be the same as non-tendering him. . . . And a _great_ sign to potential free agent signees, no? Going nickle-slick on a team leader who played hurt all year for dog-face team? I most sincerely hope that I NEVER see the Ms organization go that way, on Eddie or anyone.
Now, I would far prefer that the team exercise his option at six and half, and then trade him. The market for Eddie goes down at that price, sure it does, but it doesn’t go to zero. That he’s only signed for one year hedges the risk for the acquiring team, too. The Yankees may be interested in B. J. Ryan, for example, but they are a team that values ‘experience.’ I’d mucn prefer re-upping Eddie, dealing him to the Yankers, and then the _Ms_ signing B. J. Ryan. . . . The Ms FO doesn’t think like that, though, or at least only does do under extreme duress.
To me, the only sign of Eddie’s option being unresolved to this point is that, quite typically, the Ms FO can’t make up its collective mindset. The Ms were willing to deal Eddie at the Break, and that is an indication to me that they would be as willing and more to deal him now, given their dire needs in the rotation which will soak up payroll. So if the Ms are going to deal him anyway, they needn’t rush in picking up his option; in such case, Eddie’s ‘state of mind’ is of peripheral importance as well. But keep him or deal him it will be at six and a half. Or he walks. And would be right to do so, and probably better paid for longer if he did.
One great thing about Mazzone moving to Baltimore is that now we will really get the demonstration of whether or not he has a superior pitcher-management regime. No more Schuerholz catching useble guys in the dragnet. No more handful of Aces rotation to keep the numbers good. Leo has a completely new group of faces; will their collective numbers show a significant, positive bump after his arrival? This, to me, will be one of the things in baseball to keep a very close eye on over the next two years.
56: Anyone who still doubts Mazzone will still be able to do so even if he succeeds in Baltimore. A lot of people were expecting 2006 breakouts from Daniel Cabrera and Eric Bedard (given a full season of health) before the Mazzone hiring.
Adios Eddie, thanks for the memories…and the funny faces and barfing on the mound.
Hello Mr. Soriano. I’m so glad to see you in the 9th. We all know you can close with the best. Here kid, take the ball, shut em down.
We simply do not need Eddie on this team, not at 4.5 and most certainly not at 6+. If somebody wants to pay a guy with duct tape holding his arm on more then 4.5, please please let it be another team.
On the contrary, Bela, Percival’s recent example should only soften the market for Eddie. Maybe not so much that 4.5M seems like the lottery, but it will certainly be on his agent’s mind.
He pitched through the injury, and pitched well, but he’s still injured. I don’t want the M’s to chance being on the hook for 6.5M when it finally gives. Not even to bet that they can flip him.
Rafael Soriano’s small sample rehab stats, 2005.
In brief stops across 5 levels, Soriano’s total line:
23.2 IP, 33K, 4 BB, 1.52 ERA
13.11 K/9, 8.25 K:BB
Isolating his time split between AAA and Seattle:
12.2 IP, 20K, 2 BB, 1.42 ERA
14.22 K/9, 10 K/BB
It may be too early to count on his prolonged health, and those stats have no predictive value…but the guy’s good. Scary good. A healthy Soriano’s a good bet to outperform even a fully healthy Guardado in 2006, much less a Guardado with a torn rotater cuff.
Of course, I’d prefer to see if a healthy Soriano is capable of starting…but that’s an argument for another time. In any case, I’m damned excited to see what Soriano’s capable of next year.
Yes, I’m very encouraged about Soriano. And, yes, I’d rather see him starting; plenty of guys come back from TJ to start over prolonged periods, i.e. Smoltz, Schilling, to name a few.
I’m not arguing that Eddy should be back with the Ms to relieve. I wouldn’t have a problem with that, but I think his value in the overall context is maximized by trading him. —But he has to be under contract to do that. And the only way _that_ is going to happen is at six and a half for one. I suspect the Ms are trying to decide now whether to keep him to relieve or deal him, and that has more to do with the tremulous silence that is agitating Steady Eddie. To me, the answer would have been pretty obvious by the final game of the year, but we’re dealing with groupthink, here, so.
. . . Whatever.