Relief Aces
After an extended break, I finally have some time to tackle another part of our 2006 roster reshaping suggestions. So far, you’ve seen the cases for Jacque Jones, Kevin Brown, Kenji Jojima, and the Millwood vs Burnett discussion.
Today, rather than isolating a single player, we look at the bullpen. With the rotation bound to be full of questions, the relievers are a key to the Mariners success, or lack thereof, in 2006.
The main question is what to do with Eddie Guardado. The team holds an option to bring him back for $6.25 million, and if they decline that, then Guardado has the option to guarantee himself $4.25 million. If both sides decline their options, Guardado hits the free agent market. We gave you guys a thread on this subject already, and the overwhelming response was that everyone wants to see Guardado gone. I’m not nearly as worried by his late season swoon as everyone else, but given the current makeup of the Mariners roster, I also think it would be in the team’s best interest to spend the Guardado money on filling other needs.
People may not have noticed, consdering that the team was terrible, but the Mariners bullpen is actually quite good.
George Sherrill is, quietly, one of the better left-handed relief pitchers in the game. In 19 innings with the club in 2005, he struck out nearly 31 percent of the batters he faced. That’s phenomenal. The past two years, he has established himself as a consistent performer ready for an expanded role.
Rafael Soriano has an obviously electric arm. Before blowing out his elbow in 2003, he was the best reliever in the American League. His performances this season, while rehabbing, are exactly in line with how dominant he was before surgery. There should be little doubt about how well Soriano will pitch when he takes the mound in 2006. The questions are simply about how durable he will be.
J.J. Putz, while appearing prone to give up home runs at bad times, is a solid middle reliever whose ability to induce huge numbers of ground balls makes him a valuable commodity, especially in stranding runners. He lacks the secondary pitches to be an elite talent, but as a middle reliever, he’s above average.
Those three, alone, give the M’s a solid late inning relief corps. You could win the World Series with those three as your relievers in October. However, the strength of the team’s bullpen is not only the late inning guys, but the remarkable depth the organization has to choose from to fill out the pen.
Julio Mateo, while effective again last year, has been in decline for the past several seasons. He cannot hold runners on and is best suited for long relief, where his ability to pound the strikezone allows him to soak up several innings at a time. As a fourth reliever making little money, he has value, even though there is almost no chance he’ll ever be more than what he currently is.
Scott Atchison is the forgotten man, also missing most of the season rehabbing from an arm injury, though he did not require surgery. By the time he got back to Seattle, he showed the same ability to miss bats he displayed in 2004. His stuff isn’t overwhelming, but he’s eerily reminiscent to Angels setup ace Scot Shields.
Clint Nageotte, for all his command problems in Tacoma, still managed to keep runs of the board by combining the strikeouts-and-groundballs tandem that is death to hitters. While many are ready to write him off as a right-handed Matt Thornton, there’s still potential here.
That’s a six man bullpen that, at worst, is probably league average, and has significant upside. But with inexperienced players, there’s always risk. The best way to manage risk? Have options. And when it comes to the bullpen, the M’s have many, many options.
He most likely won’t be protected on the 40 man roster, and he’s mostly flown under the radar, but Sean Green was one of the most groundball-dominant pitchers in the Pacific Coast League while posting the best strikeout rate of his career. He doesn’t have the stuff to miss bats consistently at the major league level, but his sinker is extremely heavy, and that alone can carry a reliever.
Did you know Jeff Heaverlo had a 2.65 ERA after May 15th? After the all-star break, Heaverlo was the Rainiers best reliever.
The M’s also have a group of arms who have shown significant potential in the past, including Francisco Cruceta and Jesse Foppert. Cesar Jimenez is still somewhat interesting from the left side. That’s 11 arms, not including likely holdovers Jeff Harris and Matt Thornton, both of whom I would have no problem casting overboard, metaphorically speaking, of course.
A year ago, when talking about the strength of the Oakland A’s, we pointed to their bulllpen depth. They had a group of relievers knocking on the door, and when Octavio Dotel, Ricardo Rincon, and Chad Bradford faltered, they were replaced easily by Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer, and Kirk Saarloos. The A’s bullpen was a significant part of their ability to stay in the pennant race all season, despite not having big-name experienced guys finishing out ballgames.
The Mariners have a chance to follow the model the A’s, Indians, and Angels have used to such great success recently. By eschewing the need for a proven closer and paying millions for veteran grit, the M’s could enter the 2006 season with a bullpen that projects to league average at worst with significant upside and costs all of about $2 million.
Soriano and Sherrill as the late inning relief aces. Putz and Atchison in the middle innings. Nageotte, Mateo, Green, and Heaverlo fighting for the last two spots in the bullpen. That’s a relief corps I’d love to see.
Comments
162 Responses to “Relief Aces”
Knowing the M’s, we’ll probably keep Matt Thornton around.
What, you don’t want to see the Sherrif make a comeback, for the umpteenmillionth time?
On a somewhat similar note, and it’s probably been analysed to death elsewhere, is there any word on Dan Wilson for pitching coach?
Are there any preliminary results from the Baseball America G/F data to put Sean Green’s 3.12 G/F at Tacoma in perspective? Or is that project dead?
I wholeheartedly agree that the no-name bullpen is the way to go. Veteran relievers are one of the most overvalued commoditites on the market. To expand upon your list of the Angels, A’s, and Indians, I would add that the White Sox and Twins have both made the playoffs in recent years without “proven closers.” Also, the Astros did pretty well for themselves by letting Lidge prove himself and not holding on too tightly to Billy Wags or Octavio Dotel.
I think Danny would start somehere further down. Maybe bullpen coach.
That said, I’d prefer Pat Borders for a bullpen coaching job.
The G/F project is not dead. I’ve just been ridiculously busy. Look for an update soon.
Dave: If you were the GM, which of these guys would you be inclined to offer around as trade bait? Seems to me that Mateo might have some value, but is replaceable. Same with Putz. Since Soriano has the highest upside and Sherrill is a lefty and clearly needed, I’d hang on to them, but if we could get a starter or lefty masher for a package including some bullpen arms, it would seem like we have some room to manuever.
Besides Soriano, none of them have that much value. Mateo would definitely be the one to move if you really wanted to dump one, but there’s no reason to expect him to fetch much in return.
First of all, I’m sure Dan at least wants one year to enjoy his retirement, and secondly, he needs to step into a smaller role like bullpen coach or a minor league job before you hand him a job as a major league pitching coach. There’s no way to know how effective he’d be, especially not being a former pitcher himself. I’d rather see one of our minor league guys (or current bullpen coach) promoted.
Also, I think Mateo really cemented his job last year. I think it’s Atchison who needs to prove himself worthy. Granted the sample size was extremely small, but he was hit at a good clip. Mateo had a solid year and I think he’s just about as close to a guarantee of a spot as Putz, Sherrill, or Soriano are. Sure you’d like a few more strikeouts, but if they keep him in a long relief role, I think he’d be fine.
couldn’t we create some sort of package with an ibanez type player and mateo to get a torp? i know that’s a little out there being that we don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes, but it seems like it could help morse move into LF… on the other hand we could just put morse in the deal and leave ibanez, but that’s for another discussion about the direction we are going in
Mateo was third on the team in VORP (behind only Jamie and Felix). I think he has value as an innings eater, or even a swing man or back of the rotation guy.
He’s not going to fetch a lot in a trade, but I can see a team giving up a fourth outfielder for him if they had a need he filled.
And no, that doesn’t mean I think we could trade him to Cincinatti for Austin Kearns.
Dave, if the M’s look outside the organization for bullpen depth (not that they should, but they probably will want to add one veteran), are there any cheap (i.e., one-year contract for $1 million or less), experienced arms worth pursuing?
Grizz- I have to agree with Dave on this that veteran relievers are WAY too overrated. Look at the Mike Myers and Terry Mullholland (sp?) situation. Sure some of them can be effective, but it simply isn’t worth it when you can get the same from a younger and cheaper arm.
two points:
1. I take it you don’t see Nageotte having a future as a starter?
2. I’d like them to keep Harris as a backup starter. They might need one for injuries, in particular if they implement your Kevin Brown idea.
I did not advocate that the M’s should go after a veteran reliever (“not that they should”), but realistically, with the M’s being the M’s, the front office will go after a veteran reliever, especially if they get rid of Guardado. Considering the M’s likely course of action, I just wanted to know who the best alternatives would be.
Please don’t even consider Dan or Jamie or any other Ms veteran player as a coach please. Why all this love for the local hero as a coach?
What if Dan is awful as a pitching coach? (which I suspect he isn’t even remotely qualified to be) How do you dump him if he stinks?
Coaching and teaching are difficult jobs, especially with the talent level, ego and pressure of MLB. The Ms are a club with a budget. If they don’t go get either the man who has proven himself in the system (Chavez) or outside the system (Mazzone as an example), they are selling themselves short. Go get the talent that has the ability to do the job and has already proved it, just like with players.
If Dan even wants to manage, he should earn the right and ability like every other coach. Proffering the job to a local hero based on his name is silly.
Why spend a million on a veteran, when you can either use that money on another position or, barring that, keep some in reserve for late-season salary pickups?
I’ve strongly dissented (cough, cough) in other places with Dave, but not here. There is exactly ZERO need for us to spend money in free agency on the ‘pen. The good news is Bavasi has hinted he agrees with this view in statements to the press; the bad news is he’s also said nice things about Eddie’s “grit”, so I worry about them retaining him with the team option (based on Eddie’s recent KJR interview, though, I suspect Eddie will walk if the M’s decline the team option, and it could just be typical GM nice talk).
I also worry that the M’s will go “95 MPH FASTBALL!!! OMG!!!” and still let Matt Thornton hang around, despite a wealth of evidence that his fastball gets thrown to continents as opposed to spots…
I completely agree with the above analysis. Hopefully Bavasi does as well. The M’s do not need to waste a penny or a minute finding another bullpen arm, regardless of whether or not Eddie returns. Unfortunately, I keep hearing from mainstream media sources that the M’s need to keep Guardado, and this makes me think that the M’s will view this as a sign that, to appease a disgruntled fan base, they will need to bring back the “proven veteran closer.” After all, as the Chisox have shown, you need one those, right?
I was entertained by Rotoworld’s notion today re: Billy Wagner that “[the Mets] will be among the strongest suitors in a group that could also include the Red Sox, Orioles, Braves and Mariners.”
This is a fun fantasy, but what are the chances that the Mariners will enter the 2006 season without a “proven” closer?
In reality, if the Mariners let Guardado go, they will pick up some other “proven” closer.
So who are the free agent closers available, and which is best?
Seems like every year I read articles/posts from saberfriendly sites about how the bullpen would be best built by dumping all big-name, big-money folks, promoting a bunch of minor leaguers and picking up some unheralded guys off the waiver wire. And, surprisingly, the Mariners never follow that plan. I’d like it if they did. But they don’t. And I doubt they ever will.
To me, this kind of plan is similar to the “trade such-and-such expendable part for Adam Dunn” ideas that are routinely mocked. Both would be kick-azz if they happened. Neither of them ever will.
It is fun to speculate and wishcast, but it would be nice to ground the dreaming in just a little bit of reality.
Hey Dave, I know this is off topic, but would you consider doing a piece on the pros and cons of getting mike Piazza? He is likely leaving New York and could be a excellent stop gap at least for a year and take over some DH Duties. I know he was super impressive this year and his decline is evident but he would also draw more fans because he is a baseball icon and shouldn’t suffer too much in preformance going from Shea to Safeco so waht do you think?
as the Mariners have needs that far outweigh the closer role, I’d be surprised if they got into a bidding war in the 3/$30M/full no-trade neighborhood that Billy wants to live in…
http://ussmariner.com/?p=3056
Trench, this link leads to an earlier post where Piazza is listed as a free-agent landmine.
Hey Dave,
What are the odds Soriano can return to his 97-99mph heater? Looked like he was in the 92-95 range in his limited work at the end of the year.
Is that just a matter of building back up arm strength (like some of the other Tommy John types)? What can we expect?
Given the fact that it appears to be fairly cheap and easy to assemble a working major league bullpen, why did the Mariners have such trouble in their pre-Safeco days? Specifically, I’m thinking of the ’97 season, when they traded Jose Cruz, Jr. and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb, Paul Spoljaric and Mike Timlin. Was Woody that bad of a GM? (I already know he wasn’t a very good GM, but he did actually managed to draft some decent talent in A-Rod, Griffey and Tino, unlike Gillick). Or was it largely a function of playing in the hitter-friendly Kingdome? What could the Mariners have done differently back then to get a decent bullpen without trading Cruz and Varitek? The trade of Varitek really hurts in retrospect, considering the black hole catcher has been recently, and how good Varitek turned out to be for the BoSox.
Money issues aside, if that group is at worst league-average, where would the bullpen rank if Eddie stayed with the M’s?
couldn’t we create some sort of package with an ibanez type player and mateo to get a torp?
What is a torp and why do we want one?
I assume “torp” = top of the rotation pitcher. Although it could mean totally over rated pitcher.
Dave — While I doubt the M’s will non-tender him, given your opinion on Mateo above, would you be in favor of non-tendering Mateo in December (assuming they can’t trade him)? Because Mateo is arbitration eligible, he’s likely to get a raise at close to three times his 2005 salary of $385,000…
#26 Myron wrote: “What could the Mariners have done differently back then to get a decent bullpen without trading Cruz and Varitek?”
Without writing up a ridiculously long answer to this quesion, some of the easier things the M’s could have done to avoid having to trade Cruz, Varitek (and, don’t forget Derek Lowe)
1) They could have not traded Jeff Nelson (in his prime) to the Yankees after the ’95 season (because he was arbitration eligible and would have cost $800K)
2) They could have re-signed Mike Jackson after the ’96 season (but didn’t want to pay him $2 million).
3) They could have entered the ’97 season with closing options other than Norm Charlton and Bobby Ayala (who should have been non-tendered after the ’96 season).
4) They also could have tried Derek Lowe in the closing role before giving him and Varitek away for a pile of Heathcliff Slocumb. Lowe was used mostly as a starter in his brief time in the Majors with Seattle.
Wouldn’t Dan Wilson make a fine Supreme Court justice?
I made the assertion yesterday over at Lookout Landing that Bavasi and Hargrove, as the ‘bosses’ of the on-field club, both subscribe to the “My Team Must Have A Proven Closer” mentality. Is there any reason not to believe this?
Certainly a lot of us M’s bloggers believe that the team would be better off spending Eddie’s money elsewhere — we’ve got alternatives that could effectively close out games. But, really, is this even an option that Bavasi, et al., would even discuss?
Personally, I believe Eddie will take his option, unless he’s pressured by the front office not to. The only reason they’d pressure him not to might be if they have another “proven closer” in mind — and that decision would be more player-based rather than financial (i.e. they wouldn’t plan on saving the money on Eddie). I seriously doubt they’d consider using any of our relief aces as a closer. It makes total sense to me and obviously to a lot of other people, but I just don’t see Bavasi/Hargrove, et al., moving that direction. Especially with how often Hargrove used Sherrill as a LOOGY.
I’m entirely fearful, really, that the FO will give Eddie the team option, and he’ll end up pitching in 10 games for us in 2006. Certainly I don’t believe that his late-season collapse was due to injury, per se, (moreso due to averaging) but he’s certainly not low on the injury risk scale.
If healthy, though, he certainly adds a ton to the bullpen. Lets hope the team stays competitive enough to get him his save opportunities.
On the G/F project (which I wish I’d had time to contribute to): Note that BA now includes G/F on their team stats pages (e.g. Tacoma’s).
Also (following VJ’s #14), I’d also be interested in whether Nageotte might be able to re-establish himself as a starter.
#31 — and, Jon, if you believe Art Thiel (a controversial name ’round here, I know), they could’ve brought Shiggy Hasegawa on board in his earlier, more effective days…
Try to keep in mind that this is all part of “Dave’s Offseason Plan”. This is not “Predict What The M’s Will Do”. We’ll do that post, too, but this isn’t it.
Wouldn’t Dan Wilson make a fine Supreme Court justice?
In all reality he just may be a better justice then pitching coach. Many of the Supreme Court’s early decision makers were not lawyers. They used to be thinkers and philosophers who had the ability to render decisions based on the Declaration and Bill of Rights, not the ability obfustcate normal language such as a lawyer might.
#26, 31– I think not pitching in the Kingdome might have helped build a better bullpen, as well.
#35– Thiel’s not the only one; from the Times in Jan 1997: “Seattle had early interest in Shigetoshi Hasegawa, the Japanese pitcher the Angels signed. But Jim Colborn, the Mariners’ new international scout and who was pitching coach for the Orix team Hasegawa played for in Japan, was told that Hasegawa was not throwing nearly as hard as he once did. Hasegawa was 4-6 last year after going 57-45 in the three previous years.”
I know this has come up a couple of times, but does this pretty much mean that you feel like converting Soriano back to a starter is unrealistic enough to even bother to advocate anymore? Or possibly not even necessarily a good idea?
I still think I’d hand Eddie the money this year, for a couple of reasons:
1) Because I still hope that maybe Soriano will get another chance as a starter. I’m willing to scratch this one off my list, though, if folks think it’s time to stop even thinking about it.
2) I like the idea of having a situation like the Angels did in ’02 where everyone knows the best reliever (Soriano or maybe Sherril) is not the closer. This could cause problems in the playoffs, maybe, but I feel like in the regular season it would lead to the best reliever being deployed in the most important situation more often.
3) I want baseball players who are not currently Mariners to feel like the Mariners take good care of their own–with the caveat that I think that whatever small likelihood of a serious run next year is likely to be completely unaffected by whether or not Guardado is on the team next year. If I thought he was a genuine detriment, I wouldn’t advise this.
4) I think his $6 mil this year is unlikely to significantly affect the contracts given to other players, which are likely going to be longer term anyway. Paying Guardado and even Piniero too much money for exactly one more year seems kind of safe in a way to me because their money will be coming off the books at the end of next season, when we will hopefully know exactly what this team needs to do to seriously contend. This rests on the assumption that Bavasi is determined to get a “LH sock” and 2 starters anyway.
That said, I’m aware that there are problems with each of my reasons. Like 1) nobody will give Soriano a chance at starting anyway; 2) it will just result in using Soriano only in the 8th not necessarily in the most important non-9th situation; 3) this is cheesy and I shouldn’t worry about it; 4) It really will mean incomplete fixes this year that would otherwise be more complete.
So, I’d love to hear what folks think about that. No more talk of Meche to-become-proven-closer-and-traded for more than he’s worth? Just want him gone?
Just wanted to remind everyone that they can check out stats for the like of Sean Green, Cesar Jimenez, and so on, at the recently updated Big Board. That is all.
SIZE OF BULLPEN – This thing assumes that the Ms will go with a 6-man bullpen. * Yet, HARGROVE has constantly said that he prefers a 7-man bullpen.
Are you trying to say something?
________
*I realize that, with all those options we have–not to mention the retention of THORNTON–the bullpen can easily be expanded to seven.
I don’t think it’s fair to say that the M’s are the only team who are excited about the “proven closer” idea. Don’t forget the Braves traded their best prospect for Danny Kolb this offseason. There are plenty of teams that believe in having a big-time, well paid closer.
Jose Capellan was nothing close to the Braves best prospect.
That’s taking a huge risk on Soriano – expecting that he’ll stay healthy. Although, the m’s aren’t going to be a playof caliber team.
When I read about the trade on Baseball America, that was how they put it. I guess things have changed since then.
Here’s the BA Trade Recap on that deal. Nowhere does it refer to Capellan as anything resembling the Braves best prospect.
You won’t find a prospect analyst alive who liked Capellan more than Andy Marte or Jeff Francoeur. Even after the trade, he only ranked as the Brewers 4th best prospect in BA’s Prospect Handbook.
Hmmm….you’re right. But that’s not the article I read. I swear I read something on Baseball America somewhere saying something along the lines of “The Braves traded their best pitching prospect for Danny Kolb”.
Wow, I really should just stop talking. What a weak argument by me.
Please don’t even consider Dan or Jamie or any other Ms veteran player as a coach please. Why all this love for the local hero as a coach?
Seconded. I realize this is a pipedream with the clubby atmosphere of pro ball, but coaching should be a meritocracy not a (local) celebritocracy.
You might have read it somewhere, but probably not on BA. They’re better than that.
32, 37: Kind of like Hall of Famer, Senator Jim Bunning?
Anyway, hmm. Is there a way to look up the stats on the percentage of inherited runners that scored? That’s the stat I’d most like to see on Putz.
NAME TM LG GR IP INB INS INR BQB BQS BQR RA FRA
J.J. Putz SEA AL 64 60.0 44 14 0.8 16 6 2.5 4.05 4.08
You mean like BP’s Inherited/Bequeathed Runners Report for Relief Pitchers?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/inh_beq_pitcher2005.php
Bequeathed? Are you kidding me?
Shoeless Jose said:”Seconded. I realize this is a pipedream with the clubby atmosphere of pro ball, but coaching should be a meritocracy not a (local) celebritocracy.”
well, fortunately, outside of one or two exceptions (*coughDon Mattinglycough*) most teams do see it as a meritocracy….
What word would you use instead of bequeathed?
#28 MSB quoting The Seattle Times, Jan 1997: “Seattle had early interest in Shigetoshi Hasegawa, the Japanese pitcher the Angels signed. But Jim Colborn, the Mariners’ new international scout and who was pitching coach for the Orix team Hasegawa played for in Japan, was told that Hasegawa was not throwing nearly as hard as he once did.”
As Positive Paul pointed out earlier, Thiel also discussed the M’s desire to sign Hasegawa before the ’97 season, but Thiel revealed the real reason that Seattle didn’t try to sign him — that the Seattle owners, pissed about the state of the stadium deal and possibly putting the team up for sale, would not let the baseball people sign anyone at the time. This just goes to show how full of s*** most baseball people are — note that the Times piece gives the reason for not signing Hasegawa that “he wasn’t throwing as hard as he once did”.
#48. Consider that post thirded.
I’ve written about this in the past, but Seattle has easily the biggest local yokel fixation in American sports when it comes to handing out coaching positions to ex-players.
Let Dan show he can actually coach pitching at the minor league level first before handing him a job that’s actually important. Has Dan ever pitched before?
Doesn’t bequeath mean to leave someone something in a will?
57-how many ex-Seattle players have been hired on as coaches? Nate McMillan (who was outstanding), Jack Sikma, who else? It’s especially not true for the Mariners. John Moses, Matt Sinatro are about all I can think of. Who on the staff in recent years was an ex-Mariner? Sure people talk about brining on Edgar, Moyer, Wilson, etc. but it’s never happened.
Look at the Yankees-Mattingly, Luis Sojo. The White Sox have Guillen managing and Joey Cora on their staff. I think that argument is a little overplayed in Seattle.
It does.
If something is bequeathed to you, then you inherit it. I think inherited is the better term in this case, since the reliever metaphorically ‘inherited’ the base-runners from the preceding pitcher.
The preceding pitcher is the one who did the ‘bequeathing’.
Re: local players becoming coaches.
I believe, with a few exceptions (Mazzone, Peterson, Elia), that coaches have a negligible affect on baseball players, much less so than in other sports. It doesn’t matter to me if the Mariners choose to hire Edgar, Dan Wilson, Jamie Moyer or any of the other Mariners fan favorites for either baseball or non-baseball reasons. If they aren’t going to bring in a proven commodity, they might as well roll the dice as long as the person has a sound baseball philosophy.
Mike L said:”The White Sox have Guillen managing and Joey Cora on their staff”
just to give Li’l Joey his props, before coaching 3rd for Ozzie he was a coach with Class A Daytona (Cubs), the manager of Advanced Rookie Kingsport (Mets), the manager of Class A Savannah (Expos), the 3rd base coach for the Puerto Rican Olympic team and the GM for Caguas in the Puerto Rican Winter League from 1999-2001.
msb: Thanks for the Cora rundown.
I didn’t know he had been that many places. I’d say he has paid his dues and earned the spot he has. From the bit I read of Ozzie, one either gets the job done or one gets out. I don’t believe he accepts anything but a solid effort from anybody on the team which makes be think Joey is doing much right.
The White Sox have been a machine in the post season, scoring runs, taking bases, situational hitting and OMG pitching. I don’t know how their roster looks for next year but if they can stay mostly intact, they have the legit beginnings of a long term force.
The report covers both inherited runners and bequeathed runners.
According to the Putz’s stat line there, he prevented 0.8 inherited runners from scoring (compared to an average pitcher), but he also bequeathed 16 runners to pitchers who followed him. Of those 16, an average pitcher would allow 8.5 of them to score, but the rest of the bullpen allowed only 6 of them to score, thus help out Putz to the tune of 2.5 runs (just as he helped out the guys he followed by 0.8 runs).
#63–”I didn’t know he had been that many places. I’d say he has paid his dues and earned the spot he has.”
he has been mentioned for the last year or so as a potential managerial candidate as well..
Oh, excellent, Evan, thanks for the link, that’s exactly what I was looking for… though it’ll take me a bit to really grok what’s going on in those numbers. I think my hunch (that regardless of untimely home runs, Putz still lets a lot of inherited runners score) isn’t entirely off-base, though.
Dave or anyone with authority:
Do you think Soriano’s velocity will return to the 97-99mph it was before surgery? It looked like it was in the 92-95mph range during his work in September.
Is it a matter of regaining arm strength and flexibility like other Tommy John guys?
Anyone have thoughts? I’d love to see that 98mph heater again this year.
OK Dave I found what I was talking about with the Capellan Baseball America thing. Capellan
Schuerholz included the Braves’ top pitching prospect, righthander Jose Capellan, in a Winter Meetings deal that brought closer Dan Kolb from Milwaukee and allowed John Smoltz to return to the starting rotation.
God I hope I did the italics and link thing right.
Crap. The link didn’t work….
Capellan
Holy cripes. Forget it….
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/04top10s/braves.html
Oh, Bill Ballew wrote it. Well, I won’t stick up for him. That was a stupid thing to say.
Anyways, my original point, Capellan wasn’t some elite prospect. He was and is a guy with a fastball and not much else.
The Tigers (Alan Trammel) the Chisox (Ozzie Guillen) the Reds (Ray Knight) the Royals (Hal McRae) the Pirates (Lloyd McClendon) and the Indians (Mike Hargrove) all gave managerial positions to former players recently, with mixed results. Making a former player manager is not necessarily a bad thing, if he has experience with the team’s management and the overall atmosphere of playing in that city.
I understand the statistic, I just think it’s redundant to say inherited and bequeathed.
How are they redundant? They seem almost like antonyms. Inherit means to get something from someone else while bequeathed meanse to leave something for someone else. The two terms are being used perfectly.
An example of how to make that link tag work would be really welcome. I’ve botched it a couple of times myself — it obviously doesn’t work like the I or B tags (or like the raw HTML would).
RE: The local yokel phenomenon.
Anyone notice that, sportwise, Seattle is the middle of nowhere?
It’s my understanding that many elite players, in all sports, put us first on their no trade list simply based on the insane travel requirements. Obviously, this has less impact on the Seahawks than the Mariners or Sonics.
I believe this goes a long way toward explaining the organizational loyalty towards certain players who are popular with the fan base. To those who say, “Why didn’t we offer x a bunch of money?.” I think that often the answer is, “Because they aint coming no matter what.”
For this , and other reasons, I think Eddie will be back, at the team’s option. I don’t agree, but that’s my bet. He’s an ‘elite’ closer, he likes it here, fans dig him, and he’s not likely to be brought up on DUI charges, and he’s willing to take a 815 mile plane trip to play the nearest team in his division.
Now that the M’s finally have some money to throw around, (or away, see: Spezio, Aureeeeeeelia, Boone, etc., etc., ad nauseum.). They will probably waste some on Eddie, who with his option, and the team option has a trade value of, hold on… it’s here somewhere, … I just saw it this Spring… HEY HONEY! WHERE DID WE PUT GUARDADO’S TRADE VALUE?!… hold on… DID YOU LOOK UNDER THE REFRIDGERATOR?!…
I know it’s somewhere…
skipj
#76 – I’ve never detected a reluctance for players to come here based on geography. Ricky Henderson spent a couple of years trying to come here, and finally succeeded. Players haven’t wanted to come here lately because we suck. Pittsburgh’s travel schedule must be relatively nice, but I don’t see player after player tripping over themselves to play there.
“It’s my understanding that many elite players, in all sports, put us first on their no trade list simply based on the insane travel requirements.”
To which players are you referring? I know that we’re one of the few teams that Mike Sweeney CAN be traded to without permission.
I think the whole issue of players wanting/not wanting to play for a certain team or type of team is overblown. I think it’s clear that for the vast majority of players, the top bidder gets their services. It’s easy to come up with examples of big names going to bad teams simply because they offered the most money, but I can’t think of any player who turned down a team that offered them the biggest contract simply because that team wasn’t good or had to travel a lot. Whenever I hear about a player’s desires, it always is that player’s personal preferences that are specific to him. For example, wanting to stay in the National League or playing on the East coast, etc.
Sure, it’s possible to argue that teams like the Red Sox or Yankees are more desirable for many players, but those teams almost always offer giant contracts when they sign a free agent, which goes right back to my first point: it’s all about the money.
Tom,
All of your points are valid, to a degree.
1. Rickey knew that Lou would play him a fair amount, enabling his records thing.
2. Our long term record of sucking is huge. Our short term record is small. Plus we have the skish. A-Rod would still be a Yankee if we matched every dime he’s paid. Endorsements: Evergreen Ford vs. (name your largest regional auto chain in the Northeast).
3. I’m trying to find the article that explicitly discussed the concerns of athletes ( and professional baseball players, heh, heh) coming to Seattle and will post when I find it. On a personal level,
my partner and I (contractors) have done work for more than 15 members of a pro team, and their coaches, here in Seattle. Some are jerks, some sre great, but those who talk all talk about ‘the Seattle choice’ as it affected their decision. They all talked about players who will never come here.
skipj
I’m really intrigued by Jeff Heaverlo. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing. He was getting his brains beat out for the first two months of 2005, then he suddenly flipped a switch and became a ground-ball-inducing apocalypto-stud.
Couple that with his age and his serious injury history, his pre-injury ability and you have … well … what?
Any thoughts, Dave, or anybody else who saw him more than a handful of times post-turnaround?
A-Rod didn’t choose to be a Yankee. He chose to be a Ranger, and then they traded him. His decision to leave Seattle was based entirely on money. There may be some players who thinkof Seattle as out of the way, but I can name two off the top of my head who have limited no-trade clauses that don’t block trades to Seattle: Mike Sweeney and Eric Chavez.
On Heaverlo’s “turnaroud”: During April and May, I was noticing that that his K/W/HR numbers weren’t all that bad, but his BABIP allowed was horrendous. I remember thinking that this couldn’t continue– that, even given the likelihood that variations in BABIP are wider in AAA than in the majors, he couldn’t really be that bad at preventing hits, and that therefore a turnaround was likely if he stayed on the roster at all.
(Yeah, I know, can’t take too much credit since I didn’t go on the record at the time; but still, the Voros Effect did turn out to hold in Heaverlo’s case.)
Paul, I wonder how much that drastic drop in BABIP had to do with Betancourt replacing Morse at shortstop.
Heaverlo scrapped the change that he’d been trying to learn, went back to the death-to-everyone slider, and the change was evident.
I think he’s for real. If I were the M’s, I’d have given him a look in September, and he’d be on the 40 man right now. But I don’t think they’re going to protect him, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in another major league teams pen next year.
I was aware of Heaverlo’s quite effective year after a gawdawful first week. To me, he’s a typical example of the underutilized resources in the Ms organization. I wouldn’t be surprised AT ALL if the Ms lose or waive him in the offseason, that would be so typical. I _wasn’t_ aware that Sean Green is a GB machine. I love heavy sinkerball pitchers, and to me they are generally undervalued in baseball. The Ms organization does seem to ‘get it’ on the potential utility there in that they’re bringing in guys like Green, Harris, Reichert, et. all. —To sit in Tacoma, anyway.
Either of Nageotte or Soriano would be better off in the rotation in terms of the organization’s needs and their potential. Neither has had anything like a full shot at that role at AAA or above. Converting both of them into relievers _without_ giving a full shot to starting them is like throwing away money. Yes, they very likely both would be effective relivers. So would just about every superior starting pitcher in the Bigs, too: so? Having wasted his year, the organization is converting Nageotte back to a starter, so that’s one. Given Soriano’s uncertain durability, they won’t do the same for him in ’05, and if he succeeds as a late inning guy they won’t have the cajones to move him to the rotation later. Unfortunately. ‘Cause when I look at Rafael, I see a dominant STARTER. . . . But that said, Soriano could most certainly be a power closer. With him, it’s not just about velocity, he gets great movement on the pitch, too. For the moment, I’m just glad to see him back on the mound and healthy. But even if Soriano went down, or had to be given time off, Sherrill could close, and has solid experience in that role in the high minors. The Ms have closers, they don’t need to sign one. It wouldn’t be bad to pick up a quality arm, especially from the left side, like B. J. Ryan. It wouldn’t be worth getting in any kind of bidding war, either, and the Ms have many other needs for their $$ be it said. (I’d far rather pick up Jojima with the same money, he’d be a big plus.)
I covet Guardado’s salary for other uses, yes, but more than that I covet his value in trade for other, more needed players. ‘Proven closers’ do have a premium on their actual value, and Eddie is one of those guys. I’m not worried about his September at all; he had a fine year, an outstanding year when you consider that he was still recovering from a significant shoulder injury. Even if he has some age-related decline in ’06, he has every probability of continuing to be an effective closer. He isn’t dependent upon sheer velocity, the skill most likely to erode. He pounds the strikezone down with wiggly pitches, and forces the batter to swing at low quality strikes from behind in the count. A pitcher couldn’t get away with that for 2-3 innings, but for a dozen pitches it works. I think the Ms haven’t decided whether they ‘need to keep their proven closer,’ or not: that’s the question hanging over Eddie, the team’s indecision. What they do if they decide ‘not,’ well, I don’t think they’ve even gotten that far, which is sad, this slomo FO. But eventually, they will. Hopefully, they’ll cash in and carry on, move Guardado for what they need more. The Ms seldom think like that, though. They’re as likely to keep Eddie because he is one of the ‘marketing points’ that the organizational strategy covets. Soriano or Sherril are useless in that capacity by that way of thinking, so that makes Eddie ‘irreplaceable.’ *sigh*
Mateo, the Ms wouldn’t get for him what he is worth to the team now, so I’m happy to see him stay, in a long or middle inning role where he generally excels. The significant possiblity that he will decline shouldn’t be ignored, though. Atichson when healthy might do roughly as well in the same slot, although he’s a different type of pitcher entirely, i.e. GB and K, not FB.
Thornton . . . I wouldn’t mind having him back as a long guy, at all, if the team could keep a focus on using him that way. His wildness doesn’t bother me. It’s his ‘gopheritis’ that makes him a liability. Using him as a spot lefty in late innings is just, well weird, given his lack of command. Yeah, they want the K, but the risk of the HR is too high. Many of Matt’s best outings were in long relief, though, where his ‘effectively wild’ stuff kept hitters from teeing off. If he 3 IP with a solo HR, that’s no bad thing. The biggist issue with him, to me, is that his secondary pitches are pure crap. If there ever was a guy who could use a cutter, it’s Matt. I’d like to think of a splitter, too, but with his TJ elbow that doesn’t seem all that wise. The Ms have seven or eight better options than who Thornton is now, but part of that is that, so typically, they can’t slot him for usage at what he does best and reinforce that role. I feel like a broken record saying that.
My concerns with the bullpen aren’t with there being too few arms, but too many. During ’05, there were too many arms. Guys didn’t get consistent roles. They sat too long. They weren’t always crisp when they were finally used, but the ‘hot hands’ got used a bit too much. I wouldn’t say that Hargrove ‘misused’ folks, but he didn’t make efficient use of his resources. The ’05 bullpen was actually even _better_ then their numbers in my view, but Mike didn’t know his personnel yet so he didn’t squeeze the most value out of the group.
I have one other concern, too, which is reflected in the above comments. When Bavasi and Fontaine arrived there were grumblings from ‘unnamed FO sources’ that there was much discouragement with the quality of the pitchers in the Ms minor leagues, or lack thereof. And to be sure many of the existing talents there were hurt, and of those not hurt a number were raw or otherwise unfinished projects like Nageotte. —But part of this seems to me a way to look good or buy time for the new guys, i.e. ‘look at the mess they left us.’ Heaverlo, Atchison, Nageotte, Thornton aren’t complete guys, and most of them never will be. That’s no excuse for avoiding what value they could and do have in optimal roles. Having watched ‘the new guys’ swap Soriano, Thornton, Nageotte, and others back and forth among roles and levels, I have no conviction that these folks can figure out how to use partial skill sets effectively on a pitching staff. No conviction at all. Anybody can figure out what to do with Felix Hernandez or George Sherrill. But I’m unconvinced that the Ms FO can optimize anybody else. Oh, and while I like much of what Fontaine has done in the draft, it remains far from clear that he has drafted a _single pitcher who will make the majors_ in two years. In any role. I really question the ability of the Ms present front office to develop a pitching staff as a group. Picking up guys like Sherrill, Sean Green, Campillo is nice work in it’s way, but knowing what to do with them once they’re here is someone else’s job, and that job doesn’t seem to be being performed all that well at present, to me. I don’t recall Bavasi being particularly effective at that in his previous GM stint, either. I’m bearing that in mind going into this offseason.
Using the 40 man roster effectively is a skill the M’s haven’t managed to attempt, much less perfect. Heaverlo is exactly the kind of player you want to shelter on your 40 man. A cheap, effective pitcher that could be a valuable contributor to the MLB club next year. Given that the team probably won’t contend in 2006 I would protect Heaverlo over Mateo. Mateo is arbitration eligible, will be looking for a significant raise over 2005 and has shown that he’s a replaceable bullpen component.
You break in your AAA guys in the bullpen. You use them in long relief, ease them into the bigs and see who responds.
You don’t protect guys like harris, thornton, bloomquist and franklin. If the big board is up to date the M’s currently have Nelson, Shiggy, Mateo, Meche, Bloomquist, Thorton and even Pokey Reese on the 40 man roster.
What’s the rules on clearing guys off the 60 day DL and designating them for assignment?
At the risk of repeating what has been posted on this site before, where’s the logic in investing considerable dollars in one big-name, proven, “hired gun” closer when you have a roster that sure seems to have more glaring needs? Seems like that kind of closer is something you’d acquire to ice the cake…not preheat the oven. IMO, it’s money better spent in other ways.
#87: Mike Blowers addressed this question on a postgame show this season long after it was obvious that the M’s were going nowhere. In a nutshell, it is really demoralizing to lose a game where you have a lead in the 9th inning.
Yep. That answers it. The battle is over, and Tony LaRussa’s won.
(He didn’t explain why it’s not demoralizing to lose games because you trail the AL in OBP and are 13th of 14 in runs scored.)
Off-topic: Geoff Blum vs. Pedro Astacio … just what you expect great World Series memories to be made of.
Ezequiel Astacio, not Pedro.
Pitched like Pedro.
I want Geoff Blum’s hair. How the hell does he get a batting helmet over it? I guess when you’re on the bench for the entire postseason you have lots of time to try styling products. He looks like the Heatmiser.
And I guess, since I’m off-topic anyway and talking about the WS — those of you who are able to follow the Japanese news: is Iguchi’s presence in the WS making much of an impact?
#32, 37
Wouldn’t Dan Wilson make a fine Supreme Court justice?
Yeah, it would be great to see the look on everyone’s face on C-Span the first time Wilson slaps John Roberts on the butt and tells him to “Get after them!”.
Fan-Tastic!
92 – What kind of impact do you mean? 2 years ago, the Hawks beat the Tigers in the Japan Series, and Iguchi played a major role in winning those games. This year, with both the loss of Iguchi (and the loss of Johjima after his injury) the Hawks were stomped by the Chiba Lotte Marines in the PL playoffs, who are now summarily stomping the Hanshin Tigers. (they’re ahead 3 games to 0, and are currently winning the 4th game 3-2 with two innings left)
Or do you just mean the impact in the Japanese media? Honestly — it was funniest back when they were talking about having the Sox vs. the Cards in the series, so it’d be a Taguchi-Iguchi mediafest. Alas. I see plenty of articles about him, but having Hanshin in the Japan Series again is a pretty big media suck in itself.
Also — I thought Bobby Kielty was the Heatmiser, or at least msb was trying to convince us of that
…and the Chiba Lotte Marines SWEEP!
Wooooo.
I love the Japan Series.
Hmmm, Danny on the Supreme Court? I vaguely remember a letter he wrote . . . . . . “You’re the best baseball team owner EVER!”
With regards to Heaverlo and the current state of the roster, isn’t the next rule 5 draft in the middle of December, about 2 weeks after the players in the last year of their contract (e.g. Reese, Nelson, Shiggy, etc) become free agents? The M’s should have plenty of time the protect him if they want to.
Arizona Fall League result… Nageotte pitched a 1 hitter through 5. Apologies in advance for the non-proportional font.
TM PITCHER IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
SEA C.Nageotte (W, 1-1) 5.0 1 0 0 1 6 0 1.59
For his entire time at AFL: 17 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 18 K
This is a hitters’ league. It’s virtually a Minor League Hitter All-stars league, while at the same time, teams are very reluctant to expose their best pitchers here. It’s good to see Nags pitch well here. Looks like he might earn himself a role on the M’s in either relief or at the back end of the rotation.
Morosi in the PI says the Ms are looking at McDowell & Stottlemyre; Corey Brock in the TNT says between McDowell & Stottlemyre, with Chaves, Rice & Slaton all interviewed. He also talks hitting coach.
Rotoworld posted the PI note, with the thought, “The Mariners like safe choices and Stottlemyre fits the bill. The 44-year-old McDowell has never been a major league pitching coach. He spent last year as the Dodgers’ Triple-A pitching coach.”
um, do they remember who was the last Mariner pitching coach?
1. I know Bela Txaxdux (sp?) has worthwhile things to say but I can just never get through a post that long. I realize it’s my short attention span, but this is a blog, not a scholarly journal.
2. Maybe players really do want to avoid Seattle because of the travel, but does it really make that much difference? The only flights that are any longer than any other team’s are at the start and finish of a road trip. Otherwise you’re just going from town to town every 4 days just like every other team. In 2005 they made a total of 5 east coast trips all year.
Bela does make one really excellent point.
Given the market for pitchers this offseason (more money than there is value), Eddie’s option price of $6m+ may well be a really good deal.
So even if we don’t want him, we could exercise the option specifically so we can trade him.
And I second that comment about Geoff Blum’s hair. Wow.
Are there any restrictions on trading him after exercising that option?
wow– I knew they worked those pitchers a lot, but who knew?! from Larry Stone’s WS piece today, quoting Ozzie
“I think Freddy, last year when we got him, was being used too much in the past,” he said. “He had a tendency to go down in the season. We had him not throw the innings he didn’t have to throw. He would throw 200 or 300 innings, and I think he’s stronger now because he’s well-rested and ready to go.”
Larry does then point out that “Garcia actually pitched more innings this season under Guillen’s guidance (228) than in any but one of his
seasons in Seattle (238-2/3 in 2001, when he was an All-Star and the
American League earned-run average champion.”
Maybe Ozzie is referring to the Innings after a good party night. The Mariners forced Freddy to pitch in a lot of those innings. Ozzie, not so much.
McDowell would be great for our broadcasting group. Since Wilson is gone, McDowell would be our last link to the 1995 season.
I heard McDowell on KJR this last summer talking about what he’s been up to…
it’s Roger, not Black Jack.
Does anybody have a list of the FA closers available, and an estimate as to what they might go for? That would tell us if Eddie’s $6.25M is a good deal or not.
If it is, you exercise it. That is the advantage that teams with salary budgets like the M’s have and should use. You can then fine-tune the makeup of your bullpen during spring training and even up to July 31 if you need to, while finding the right trading partner for Eddie to get us the pieces that we really need.
It seems like we have enough guys that have options available that we can keep on the 40 man in Tacoma. This gives us a lot of flexibility. Doesn’t this make the most sense?
Well … I just went back and read the post on Eddie’s option, which lists the available closers. So, one question answered. The opinions there are that Eddie isn’t worth the $6.25M, but they don’t discuss what other teams will be paying other closers this offseason. My second question then is still open for thoughts …
Realize that 6.5 and 4.5 are the BASE values for Eddie’s contract. He has a 1M closer’s bonus plus other incentives for games completed and such that if under team option and the closer would push his salary to 8M.
I do think it would be a good idea to pick up Eddie’s option and then trade him, but you have to do it quickly and don’t try to build up packages, just be content with getting some decent or perhaps one good prospect(s) and be done with it.
I didn’t realized how close we are to a .500 team, even filling the last 2 rotation spots with replacement level scrubs, but given our bullpen we are close to league average pitching. Given that we are a league average DH or LF away from league average hitting, we are a hitter and a couple replacement level scrubs away from .500 ball. Of course, that is if no one gets hurt, and with our bench that would mean a sub .500 team if that happens, but it also means we are only a few peices away from both .500 ball. Add a GOOD pitcher in there, and we could be in contention sooner than later. Which just goes to show an AT LEAST average hitter and above average pitchr should be our goals, NOT bullpen peices.
If the Ms don’t finish over .500 next season then, barring injury or something, Bill Bavasi completely failed this winter. If the Ms do NOTHING, and trot out the same team Opening Day 06 as closed the season 05, that’s a 75-80 win team.
#112, exactly I just didn’t realize how close we are. Plus if Beltre is signifigantly better next year (not 48 HRs, just a lot better), we could be real sleepers in the AL west. Our bench is a major weakness though.
Our bench is a major weakness though.
But since that appears to be an organisational blind spot, I think we have to accept that our bench will suck. It will continue to be populated by the likes of Willie Boom Boom and Dobby the Bench Elf.
But if our starting 9 is adequate (and durable), then that may not matter.
#114, I know that. Our bench is really bad though and hurts us a lot when those 9 regulars aren’t playing. I know it’s a blind spot too, so it won’t be fixed, but it shouldn’t be too expensive to fix, and should be. Just my opinion.
Sorry, this may have been discussed by I haven’t seen it. It doesn’t make sense why did the M’s didn’t trade Guardado for the best package possible at the trade deadline if they weren’t going to pick up his option. Why let him go for nothing when we could have gotten something in return?
CLINT NAGEOTTE – According to Kevin Goldstein’s PROSPECT REPORT, Clint is one of the hottest pitchers in the AFL. Here’s his recent line–and a note on his AFL season so far.
TM PITCHER IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
SEA C.Nageotte (W, 1-1) 5.0 1 0 0 1 6 0 1.59 – 17 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 18 K
#117, I don’t believe in AFL stats, but I personally have a lot of love for Nageotte. His slider has soooooooooo much break, and if he’d learn to control it, it could be one of the best pitches in the game. Unfortunately he’s been the extreme version of Victor Zambrano so far, at least in the majors.
RULE 5 DRAFT – (Dave can address this with specifics.) The Rule 5 Draft is late in the year, but rosters must be finalized about a month earlier. I agree with you though, that there’s still plenty of time to protect HEAVERLO.
BTW, sorry to have repeated Rusty’s Nageotte rhapsodizing.
The Rule 5 draft takes place at the winter meetings, which occurs this year from December 7-11th, I believe. So the Rule 5 should go down on December 10th or 11th. Rosters will have to be set probably November 15th-ish.
per MLB:
Close of World Series October 15th or the day following the end of the World Series (whichever is later) marks the commencement of the 15-day period during which eligible players may elect free agency or demand a trade.
November 10 Waivers secured on/after Aug. 1, 2005, expire at 5:00 p.m. ET.
November 11 New waiver period begins. Waivers (exclusive of Special waivers) secured today and after shall be in effect until February 15, 2006.
November 19 Day to file reserve lists for all Minor League levels and Major Leagues.
Last date to make an off-season outright assignment of an injured player to the Minor Leagues if the player does not meet the requirements listed in Article XIX(C)(b) of the Basic Agreement.
December 7 Last date for former club of player who declared free agency under Art. XX (B) to offer salary arbitration. If Club does not offer, then it loses all rights to negotiate with and sign the free agent until May 1st of the next season.
December 8 Major League Rule 5 Draft
December 19 Last date for player, who declared free agency under Art. XX (B), to accept an arbitration offer of former club. If player rejects offer to go to arbitration, his former club may still negotiate with and sign him until January 8th of next season.
December 20 Last date to tender contracts.
Dave–
Nice opening argument for the bullpen. Really giving me hope on that side of the team.
I think if Guardado isn’t picked up (or at least talked to about it) by the M’s he would feel unwanted and leave.
———a bit off topic
Here is my question (it ends up here because I don’t know where else to put it): The M’s seem like they are going to keep Moyer for another year. Since Moyer did so well at Safeco this last year (10-0), doesn’t it make sense to have him be a stay at home pitcher?
Use Guardado’s money to bring someone in who will pitch the away games. It’s not going to happen. I just think it would be an interesting experiment.
Mark, I believe DMZ and others already advocated for this idea (Moyer as a stay at home pitcher) a couple of months ago. I think, to an extent, it’s wishful thinking. You might need to search this site for more info.
I don’t believe in AFL stats
Is it like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny for you? They play on a regulation diamond. Same rules, same game. What’s not to believe? And as I said earlier in a post, pitchers performing well in this league is something to take notice of.
No, its not, Rusty.
Rusty, the daimond isn’t throwing the pitches. High school plays on the same diamond. Should we send all our prospects to High school again and tout their stats there as progress?
Rusty, I believe the AFL is such a “hitters league” because a lot of crappy replacement level pitchers are sent there. Just my opinion, but I do believe that is the case. There’s also the sample size issue.
after watching the Lation Legends team announcement, I just want to say that I love it that Edgar is just known as ‘Edgar’.
Has anyone brought up the possibility of Tim Rall in the bullpen? Good K/9, has some control issues, but seems as if he could be a potential LOOGY candidate, and carrying a LOOGY might make Hargrove use Sherrill for longer stints, instead of him being “the lefty.”
I would exercise Eddie’s option because I don’t trust Putz as a closer and worry that Soriano may not be ready for a full-year as closer. I would add Sherrill for the late innings, Mateo for the sixth and seventh, Harris and Thornton in long relief (former starters who are capable of going four-five innings at a time). Atchison’s a wild card. Nageotte hasn’t proven yet he can pitch effectively in the majors, neither has Heaverlo.
For the rotation: Felix, Pineiro (because he’ll make too much to return much in trade) and three others. I’d chase two middle-of-the-rotation type free agents (Millwood, Washburn). Attempt to trade Meche. Non tender Franklin. I’m not convinced the Mariners are willing to pay Moyer what he thinks he’s worth (and I wouldn’t blame them).
… why did the M’s didn’t trade Guardado for the best package possible at the trade deadline if they weren’t going to pick up his option. Why let him go for nothing when we could have gotten something in return?
Eddie has language in his contract that allowed him to reject trades to some of the teams (Boston) that wanted to pick him up.
Maybe this has been answered somewhere in this post, or somewhere else on site, but if either the team option or Guardado’s option is exercised and he’s back, does the his contract language allowing him to reject trades to certain teams go away or is that grandfathered in somehow?
I guess what I’m really asking is if anything is gained by getting Guardado under a new contract and then looking to trade to the best offer versus what was apparently dealt with last year?
#132: Obviously I haven’t read the contract (hell, Eddie says he hasn’t read the contract), but I’d be shocked if Eddie’s agent let his no-trade protection turn into a pumpkin in the option year.
Hey Doug
Millwood = one of the two best pitchers on the market. Better than anyone pitching for the M’s next year not born in Venezuela.
Washburn = Aaron Sele circa 2002. Disaster in waiting.
So Freddy Garcia just won the clinching game of the World Series.
Breaks your f**kin’ heart, doesn’t it?
#135: Don’t fret; I’m told that the M’s front office whipped out their calculators during his last year here and computed that he was the most overpaid pitcher in baseball. Good riddance.
(Hey, Derek Lowe won the clinching game of all three playoff series last year and was lucky enough to do it in his FA walk year. Now he may really be the most overpaid pitcher in baseball. Unless it’s Randy Johnson.)
I don’t think Garcia was the difference between a 69-win team and a 99-win team, so that particular bit of info doesn’t especially break anything of mine. Adding to this is that the ‘Win’ for pitchers is my second-least favorite stat, right behind the ‘Save.’
It does break my heart that the White Sox won (though the Astros winning may have produced similar results) because this means an extra decade or two that we’ll have to hear about how the only way to win the World Series is to do all the ‘little things.’
#137: Next time someone says that you need to “do all the little things” to win the World Series, just remind them that the 2004 Red Sox committed 4 errors in Game 1 and 4 more in Game 2, stole no bases through the entire series, and put down 1 sac bunt (by a pitcher who had to go to the plate under those silly NL rules). They won in 4.
The only little thing you need to do is score at least 1 more run than the other team, and do that 4 times.
#137: What single player is ever the difference between a 69 win team and a 99 win team? That’s 90 Win Shares! Pujols was only worth 38 this year. So what should the M’s do, dump all the players and make themselves into the 21st century version of the 1998 Florida Marlins?
And having concluded that happy thought, back to our erstwhile topic. The morning’s PI says, “M’s likely to pass on Guardado / Club won’t exercise option; free agency looms”
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/246119_seriesbar27.html
You know what really pisses me off about that story in the P-I about Guaradado? This section below which perpetuates the myth that Guardado picked up his option for ’05 because “he received assurances the club wanted him back.” This has also been in the Seattle Times reported similarly as if it were fact. It’s complete and utter BS. The reason why Guarado excercised his option is pretty clear to anyone with half a brain — he had a guaranteed $4 million and a torn rotator cuff — and he and his agent knew that no team was going to give him anything close to that as a free agent with that type of injury no matter how much Eddie insisted he could pitch through it.
Here’s the section:
“Last offseason, while Guardado nursed a torn rotator cuff and prepared for knee surgery, the club declined its $6 million option. Guardado picked up his $4 million player option after receiving assurances the club wanted him back.
Sorry, this may have been discussed by I haven’t seen it. It doesn’t make sense why did the M’s didn’t trade Guardado for the best package possible at the trade deadline if they weren’t going to pick up his option. Why let him go for nothing when we could have gotten something in return?
my take on this is that Bavasi shopped him and was thoroughly underwhelmed on what the return would be.
so who does close next year if The PI article is correct? with their offensive and rotation needs, do they add closer to that list of needs?
or do you just give the job to Soriano [who pitched 7 major league innings last year] and/or Putz [who does ok vs. righties, .197 BA against...but got lit up vs. lefties, .321 BA against].
I think the team going into the season without going after an established closer is sending a message to the casual fan base that they don’t expect to contend again in 2006…a dangerous message to send to the fans who have supported this team through the last two misrable seasons.
I actually enjoyed watching Freddy clinch the WS. He was a fun player to watch for the Ms and I’ve always wished ex-Ms success. Plus Joey Cora coaches for the Sox and I’ll never forget watching him cry after they were knocked out in 95. No more sad crying for Cora
Rotoworld claims that declining Guardado’s option would be a mistake. They don’t see him taking the 4.5m figure, making him a free agent, and don’t see us scoring anybody equal or better at that price.
They’re generally pretty good at what’s right and wrong for a team, as well as predicing the market, but I still say we decline, if Guardado wants 4.5, take him there, but it’s not such a big loss as many make it out to be if he walks.
Just like the White Sox this year?
Rotoworld is wrong. They shopped Guardardo at the deadline, to teams in need that would only have to pay 1/3 of his salary, and no one was interested. I can’t see that there’s a market for him at $6M+. We have Soriano/Sherill at 1/10th the price.
Some of that is based on my personal predicition for Guadardo. I think it’s a minor miracle that he didn’t have a serious arm injury and miss time. I think he’s likely to be an adequate relief pitcher and spend time on the DL. And even if I’m wrong, the risk that he’s a $1M pitcher is too high to guarantee him $6.5. For 6.5M, I’d rather have Jacque Jones.
I don’t know why Rotoworld dislikes our bullpen so much. First they want us to go after Billy Wagner, and now Eddie
144-I don’t think that’s the point of 141′s statement. Whether we can contend without Guardado isn’t the question, it’s how the “casual fan” will respond. At least, I think that’s how I took it.
My thought is that the casual fan won’t really care about losing Eddie. While I think Eddie does have a lot of appeal, more of those “casual” fans are interested in seeing Ichiro contort his body in the on-deck circle and Sexson blast home runs. Plus, if the moves that are made this offseason lead to the M’s winning, the fans will be plenty happy.
Maybe renaming the Mariners the Blue Sox will end our long drought of not winning a World Series.
#147…. it’s not even 30 years. To some that isn’t ‘a long drought’
congratulations to Ozzie for giving his niece in marriage to Freddy Garcia, congratulations to Scott Podsednik for giving Lou the firm conviction that Podsy would never make it in the major leagues, congratulations to Damaso Marte for giving up a home run in his first big league relief appearance (foreshadowing the rest of his half-season in Seattle), congratulations to Chris Widger for learning to be the best little back-up catcher at the feet of Dan Wilson, congratulations to Li’l Joey for honing his baserunning/stealing/mind games at the Kingdome so he could teach them to the newly smart-ball White Sox, congratulations to Gippy for being the Best Ever Cheerleader in the dugout for the ‘Stros, and congratulations to Edgar on being named to the Latino Legends team as a third-baseman
From my POV, the M’s have a few options in what they can do:
-Just go with what they have, and let Putz, Soriano, and perhaps Nageotte battle for the spot
-the above, but converting Meche to the bullpen and adding him to the mix. I think that this could be a really interesting option.
-bring in a pseudo closer via free agency. I think that Bob Howry could be an interesting player. He has not closed much, but he is a power reliever who has been really good the last two years. He would give the M’s a veteran in the pen, and he could close if nobody else emerges. I think that the M’s would be smart to sign Octavio Dotel to a cheap contract (perhaps with an option for 2007), let him rehab, and hope that he can return sometime in the second half.
-bring in a more appealing free agent. One guy that is interesting is Kyle Farnsworth. However, he might cost a lot and cost the M’s draft picks.
I think that the M’s would be OK as is. As Dave pointed out, the M’s have a lot of depth in bullpen arms. Every year, two or three guys come out of nowhere to become dominant closers. Since the M’s are still retooling, they can afford to let some of their internal options battle for that spot.
#147 Marte was actually on the M’s big league roster for a total of about 2 weeks, having been brought up from Double-A where he’d been a starter with an ERA over 5.00 and used in the ‘pen. He should have been protected on the 40 man that winter but was lost as a six year minor league FA.
Interestlng enough, Marte was in the big leagues long enough w/ the M’s to sucker-punch Todd Hundley of the Dodgers during an interleague brawl and earned a three-game suspension (which he never served because he was sent to the minors the day after the brawl and didn’t reach the bigs again for two more years and MLB apparently forgot about the suspension…)
Rotoworld is badly misinformed if they think we can’t replace Guardado at CL with what Eddie will cost.
I can’t seem to say this enough. Eddie as the Ms closer does NOT cost 6.5M, he costs 8M. He has a 1M closer’s bonus in his contract. If Rotoworld or anyone for that matter, thinks the Ms can’t find a closer for less than 8M per year, they’re nuts.
I don’t care how it happens via FA or trade, but Eddie Guardado should not be pitching for the Ms in 2006. Nothing against him, I like the way he plays, but RP are a stupid place to spend 10% of your budget.
ahhh, Dave Mahler is going off on the M’s ‘letting Guardado walk’ and the untold wonders they could have got for him at the deadline….
A couple of days ago, Gastineau called some callers “seamhead knuckleheads” for questioning whether Dan Wilson was the best the M’s could do at catcher the past few years.
Southpaw, no doubt you are right if Eddie ends up costing us more like $8M instead of the $6.25M we were discussing. That is WAY too much money for anyone, regardless of the M’s internal situation with the strength of the relief corps.
Earlier in this thread I had advocated looking at the FA market and what Eddie would go for there. If the answer was “definitely more than his option would cost us”, then I advocated for picking up his option and flipping him later if need be since he would have trade value.
It appears that the $8M number answers my question (definitely too big) and I also had forgotten about the no-trade list in his contract. However, if he picks up his option, that sounds OK to me. I still think he’s got a lot left.
So all you Bavasi lovers still think we screwed the whitesox?WE got a catcher who stunk a ss who now plays lf that has been tested positive 3 times for roids and a of who has a good glove no power and gets caught stealing bases at a alarming rate!All we gave up was a guy who just won the clinching game of the world series.The point is were out searching for a top of the rotation innings eater right now and he was right hear and wanted to stay right hear but bavasai and his band of geniuses didnt like his emotions are night life style.Sorry to tell you not all these guys are choirboys and as long as the mariners keep just having the nice guys allways finish 1st approach we will stay at the bottum some times you need a little contreversy and not a bunch of choirboys.
Ladies and gentleman, from the shallow end of gene pool, Benny Young.
Well David tell me are we getting better are worse since Bavasai and group took over?We have spent a whole lot of money no results whats next?
We’ve done so many posts on this subject, it’s laughable. Knock yourself out reading the archives. Hopefully you’ll learn a few things.
Yup. All we need is a little more of that there “contreversy”.
Hindsight is a poor analytical tool to measure the worth of a trade. It’s intellectually flabby….yet we all do it to some degree. Cirillo, Aurilia, Olvio, Winn seemed to do a little better after they left the Safe.
Sometimes a player does better in a new environment. Carlos Guillen perhaps. But I think it’s been well documented that Garcia has not pitched better in Chicago than here. He got lucky. Freddy matches up much better against the opposing teams #3 or #4 pitcher, than the #1 guy he would face while a mariner.
Maybe renaming the Mariners the Blue Sox will end our long drought of not winning a World Series.
I like that, at least as a nickname. Though “sea sox” is funnier, somehow.
Jesus, I’m sorry I started that whole “I miss Freddy thing last night”.
It does break my heart seeing another team succeed with former Mariners players. But I don’t believe that Freddy would have made the difference for the M’s this year. He ceased to be an effective TOTR starter for the Mariners some time ago. Even in 2004, when he was better than he’d been in 2002-2003 he didn’t make a difference to the team, who continued to suck good and hard with him starting every five days.
He’s a decent middle of the rotation pitcher; he’d done well with the White Sox this year, and he pitched well against the Astros last night, but I’m not sitting here wishing that Bavasi hadn’t made that trade.