Reds sold, what a stadium’s worth

DMZ · November 2, 2005 at 9:40 pm · Filed Under General baseball 

Carl Linder, owner of the Reds, is going to sell them to a local group. News stories say the acquisition sets the value of the team at $270m.

Assume that’s true. In 2002, before the team moved into their new digs, they were worth $204m by Forbes estimates.

In 2004, having moved in, they were valued at $245m.

Even as the team flirted with year-to-year unprofitability, their value increased by about $70m in three years, with the only real difference in the franchise’s health being the new stadium. That’s a nice return.


74 Responses to “Reds sold, what a stadium’s worth”

  1. Evan on November 4th, 2005 3:49 pm

    Now if only they could get someone to take Guzman they will have undone their two worst moves of last year.

  2. Jesse Scott on November 4th, 2005 5:11 pm

    I know we’ve talked a bit about Brian Giles before, but I was bored this afternoon and took a look at comparing how some of his flyouts this year in Petco would translate into Safeco.

    Using’s hitting chart tool and a little work in Photoshop, I came up with this image. Based on that (which may or may not be very reliable) he would be about +10 HR if Petco had the same fence distances as Safeco.

    Based on my hasty and probably inaccurate calculations, that would bring his season line to something like .319/.435/.556 (.991 OPS).

    If any of this is close to being accurate, Petco seems to really kill LH hitters…maybe that’s why he want’s out of SD? 🙂

    Anyway, just thought it was interesting…sorry for any thread hijacking that might result….

  3. yteimlad on November 4th, 2005 5:21 pm

    51- awesome work. i doubt the methodology was the same, but the marlins did a similar study before they signed carlos delgado last year and found that only one of the homers he hit the previous year would have been within the confines of their stadium. petco is the worst hitter’s park in the majors, but it is insane to physically see the comparison. it actually makes safeco look small. it would be interesting to see the comparison of petco and yankee stadium.

  4. Evan on November 4th, 2005 5:27 pm

    There are clearly other factors at work in determining where balls are hit, so it’s not that simple, but that is a very informative image.

    Remember how much the team went on about how Safeco was fair for lefties when they signed Ibanez. They were clearly right.

  5. Terry on November 4th, 2005 5:29 pm

    #51: Interesting effort but id caution you about your extrapolation because Petco does kill lefty power numbers. Giles was pitched to pull while at home and alot of those long ones left to die in petco wouldnt have occurred on the road.

    Case in point…..Giles had only 9 homers in 80 road games. He isnt lefty-sock.

  6. Dave on November 4th, 2005 5:35 pm

    Was Edgar Martinez “righty sock”? Did you want the M’s to get rid of him and bring in a true power hitter at DH?

    Giles hit .333/.463/.545 on the road last year. That’s a ridiculous line, the kind that wins MVP award.

  7. Jesse Scott on November 4th, 2005 5:35 pm

    Yeah, I certainly don’t want to try to extract any “gospel truths” out of my 10 minutes of Photoshop work, I just found it interesting how Petco gobbles up those fly balls to right.

    And although he didn’t whack too many out away from Petco, a bunch of his other numbers are pretty noticeably higher:

    Home: .267/.378/.417
    Away: .333/.463/.545


  8. Jesse Scott on November 4th, 2005 5:36 pm

    Thanks for making me redundant Dave. 🙂

  9. robbbbbb on November 4th, 2005 5:41 pm

    That’s a nifty photo image, Jesse. Thanks for sharing.

    That said, while I think that Giles’s numbers go up in the Safe, I don’t think you get +10 HR/yr out of him. Most notably, the air is cooler and denser here: the ball doesn’t carry as well as in the deserts of California.

    I think you’re right, though, that he sees an improvement across the board moving up here. If he hits .300/.400/.500 (which is possible), then he could quite certainly be a steal.

    If the M’s can get him, go do it. He’s the lefty sock the team needs at LF/DH. (And I think he’s a more capable defender than Ibanez.)

  10. Terry on November 4th, 2005 6:00 pm

    Giles is a talented hitter. However, the M’s have identified “lefty-sock” as a major priority. Sock suggests bonified power (as opposed to more lefty pop for instance).

    I was merely pointing out that Giles doesnt fit that power priority. I wasnt arguing he wouldnt be an offensive upgrade. Im just suggesting giles would be an expensive upgrade that didnt satisfy the lefty-sock priority.

    Giles likely would come at the expense of the rotation. Id rather have an additional quality arm. If Delgado were an option, it would be a different story.

  11. eponymous coward on November 4th, 2005 6:02 pm

    Hey, if Howard decides to open the vaults and spend on a top-tier P AND a top-tier hitter, I’m down for it.

    I don’t know if they can do it and stay inside of budget, though- the rotation assuming a frontline starter + Moyer resigning – (Meche and Franklin) looks like this:

    FA signing
    King Felix
    Foppert/Bazardo/Livingston/cast of thousands from minors and spring training NRIs

    Yes, I know, Felix is at 4. He’d actually be at 5 and not starting in early April so his innings stay under 200, were it not for the fact that the options at 5 are pretty bad. Arguably, the M’s need TWO starters off the FA market- at least an innings-eater + the top-tier starter. Ideally, we’d nab Paul Byrd and one of Millwood or Burnett- but I don’t think that leaves money for Giles unless the contracts have wacky backloading or Howard opens the vault.

  12. Dave on November 4th, 2005 6:07 pm

    Giles is a talented hitter. However, the M’s have identified “lefty-sock” as a major priority. Sock suggests bonified power (as opposed to more lefty pop for instance).

    Giles slugged .545 on the road last year. Richie Sexson slugged .541, Adam Dunn .540, Paul Konerko .534, Lance Berkman .524, Miguel Tejada .515, and Gary Sheffield .512.

    You might want to reevaluate your opinion.

  13. Ace of Spades on November 4th, 2005 6:13 pm

    Yes. Let us pontificate on the semantics of “sock” and “pop.” I personally feel that we should consider getting some lefty “crackle” and some lefty “snap.”

    There’s a reason why Brian Giles has a .545 SLG on the road. There’s this thing in between a single and a homerun. They call it a “double.” Who’s the Mariner king of doubles?

    Brian Giles should hit at least 20-25 homeruns if at Safeco with plenty of doubles and high OBP. We need that, and we need it badly.

  14. Jesse Scott on November 4th, 2005 6:24 pm

    What do you think the odds are that Giles might take an incentive heavy contract? Maybe something with $8-$9 guaranteed for the first year and then $4-$5 + lots of performance incentives after that.

    I’m just thinking that Bavasi and co. are going to be a bit wary of Bret Boone part deux. Althought from comparing their numbers, I don’t think Giles and Boone are really in the same “league” so to speak. The 2001 version of Boone wasn’t as good as Giles on the road this year (Boone had a bit more slug but way less OBP).

    Anyone have any idea whether the ability to see pitches and draw walks ages better than some other hitting skills? Is there reason to believe that Giles will be able to sustain at least his OBP as he enters his “sunset years”?

  15. Deanna on November 4th, 2005 6:45 pm

    Giles has a career .463 OPS in Safeco according to splits on (Yes, OPS.)

    I know, small sample size. Just was shocked to notice it.

    Maybe he should never play at home 🙂

  16. Terry on November 4th, 2005 7:18 pm

    #60: No Dave. Clearly Bavasi has indicated he wants a lefty homerun hitter to take advantage of Safeco’s dimensions. I fully understand there is more than one way to skin a cat’s OPS. But if Bavasi simply wanted a higher slugging percentage why would he specifically want it from the left side? A double is a double. The M’s have alot of lefties already. The answer, Bavasi wants more easy runs.

    Im not arguing semantics. The M’s have indicated lefthanded homeruns is one of their priorities. Im not even making a value judgement about their priorities. Assuming Ibanez DH’s again, clearly Giles is an upgrade since the M’s dont have a major league quality guy to play left. Thats not the point though. They arent looking to merely upgrade left. They want left-handed homeruns.

    Giles, while a good hitter, is not a bonified left-handed homerun threat. You can argue for signing Giles all you want but he doesnt fit the M’s stated priorities. To argue about Giles really is to argument about Bavasi’s priorities. Perhaps that would be a more useful dialog.

    Giles has turned down 3 years at 7 million a 12 docker. So youre looking at at least 3 years for somewhere between 7-10 million. That could get in the way of a rotation guy being signed and given the M’s stated desire for a lefty homerun hitter, giles represents a compromise. While many here think Giles would be worth 9 million a year, its a moot point (I look at Giles’ away splits and drool over that production in the middle of the M’s lineup). However, it appears that the M’s currently have other ideas.

  17. Dave on November 4th, 2005 7:24 pm

    You have no idea what Bavasi wants, Terry.

  18. Terry on November 4th, 2005 7:34 pm

    There is absolutely no reason to expect Giles would hit 25 hrs a year at Safeco. He has 30 homers in 850 away games spanning the last 3 years. Thats an average of ten a season with a downward trend in total numbers over that time suggesting it would be reasonable to expect less next season.

    Over those three years, he has hit 28 homers at home. This suggests that while Petco can be tough on lefties, Giles wasnt emasculated by playing there. He truly is no longer a power hitter in the traditional sense.

  19. Terry on November 4th, 2005 7:38 pm

    Dave, I like you can only go by what Bavasi has said publically. Once again, everything he has said publically indicates they want a lefty who is a serious homerun threat. I guess you could argue otherwise though I dont see how you could do so convincingly.

  20. John D. on November 4th, 2005 8:33 pm

    PETCO VS SAFECO – (# 52 – that IMAGE) – PETCO looks something like the original SAFECO. Fine, if you’re trying to drive sluggers away, so you won’t have to pay them big bucks, but not so good if you’re trying to win a pennant with them.

  21. ray on November 4th, 2005 9:19 pm

    Buying a team seems to be just like buying a house. Even if you do nothing the value will go up. Anybody want to partner up to make a quick buck? 😉

  22. ray on November 4th, 2005 9:23 pm

    Since the topic has changed, what I think is scary os that Bavasi will be too reactionary. He just might go out and get players to say “look we’re going to make improvement” but on the surface it’s all cosmetic. Would it be too difficult for him not to buy just to buy? Can’t he say “the market is too thin so we will try for trades during the season” or “we will try next season when the market is better”?

  23. Typical Idiot Fan on November 5th, 2005 1:02 am

    “Joe Bick, the agent for Brian Giles, confirmed the Mariners have expressed interest in the left-handed-hitting outfielder, who turned down a three-year, $21 million offer from the Padres before filing for free agency.
    ‘Certainly, the Mariners are among those we would be serious with,” said Bick. “He wants to play where someone is interested in winning. He’d like to be in the playoffs. With a few pieces, there’s no reason why they [the M’s] couldn’t.'”

    Adding gasoline to the fire. Flame on.

    Giles is my #1 choice this offseason for acquisition behind a TOR starting pitcher. Last year I wanted Delgado and Beltre and got Sexson and Beltre, and they still tried to get Delgado, so obviously Bavasi knows who the good players are and tries to get them.

    I have faith in Bill Bavasi to have a solid offseason once again.

  24. ChrisK on November 5th, 2005 12:27 pm

    I wouldn’t read too much into anything an agent says during his client’s free agency period. The agent wants to generate as much interest in his client as possible (fabricating interest if necessary), so he’s naturally going to say all the right things about the M’s: class organization, committed to winning, close to the playoffs, etc. It’s all part of the free agent game.