Around the Papers
JMB · November 5, 2005 at 10:10 am · Filed Under Mariners
Times: The M’s hope AJ Burnett will bring his tour to Seattle.
PI: Moyer has many options. Also, the M’s wouldn’t allow teams to talk with Bavasi even if they asked pretty please with sugar on top.
News Tribune: Nothing since “M’s retain Guardado.”
Comments
84 Responses to “Around the Papers”
Hey, with the price of gas these days how could they turn down a great deal on a fuel efficient YUGO!!!!
I recognize we probably don’t have a chance in landing Tracy, but it seems like right now is a perfect time to at least attempt to aquire him. Boston has their eyes on him and the mets are looking for an upgrade at 1st. Right now Tracy is under the radar and if Arizona doesn’t deal him by the next trade deadline i have a feeling he’ll be a pretty hot prospect for a lot of contending teams looking to sell out their farm teams. Just look at his numbers from the beginning to now…..Consistent!
My biggest pet peeve is when people suggest getting rid of the garbage for a top player…..ie: Why don’t the M’s trade Spezio for Manny, Boston needs a 3rd baseman? I’m sure they’d be happy to pick up most of Manny’s contract!…..Darnit, too bad the M’s cut him!
Point is, Couldn’t they get creative. The twins are full of young pitchers, yet lack young middle infiedlers that can hit……The M’s have lots of young middle infielders that can hit…..How about a three way?
All i’m saying is we should be looking at trades just as much as we are looking at FA signings.
I can’t imagine Quentin is on the market. He’s their best prospect.
Now Chad Tracy certainly could be had, but he’s just another David Bell, at best.
I’m pretty sure Bavasi is going to be open to trades, especially since there MIGHT be someone who thinks they could offer 2.8-3 million to Meche and his 94 MPH fastball and fix him- get the Meche of April-June 2002.
I personally think it’s “bigger fool” as applied to baseball trades as opposed to the stock market, and the odds aren’t good, but the concept’s not totally outrageous.
Will Bavasi be creative? Weeeeelll…his record hasn’t really indicated that he is prone to that kind of dealing. On the other hand, he knows that 2006 is his last stand- a 73-89 record ain’t gonna cut it, and 82-80 might not, even.
MATSUZAKA – All this talk about the Yankees having the inside track on him ?
Isn’t it a fair fight? If the Ms submit the highest bid, then they have sole negotiating rights?
Someone?
Speaking of newspaper stories, check this out from the Globe and Mail (published in Toronto).
http://tinyurl.com/859xj
A passage of note: A Florida Marlins insider says that Karen Burnett will have a significant say in where her husbands ends up. “A.J.’s wife is a piece of work,” the insider said. “My guess is they’ll end up on the east coast of the U.S., some place within driving distance of home.”
Burnett’s wife is from the Baltimore area, and she apparently does not like to fly…
#37, I agree that it is likely that the M’s will try and continue coasting on their past success, but I still say it’s a stupid stategy. You do have to compete periodically or the fans will go away. The more often you are competitive, the more loyalty you inspire.
This off-season may not have a huge effect on next years revenue, but it will in a couple years.
As I recall, the M’s got their contracts in 2001-2002, when they were at their peak performance record-wise. Somehow, I don’t think KOMO and FSN are popping champagne about the M’s ratings right now (I suspect that instead, they’ve had to rebate adevrtising because ratings have been below what was expected), and if we spend the next few years fumbling around below or near .500 without contending in any spectacular fashion, I find it hard to believe the next round of contracts will be a particularly lucrative haul for the team.
Well, if their ratings were low, that would be true. But it’s not. M’s games are still huge (in fact, almost unbelievably good) even through these last two seasons. If the ratings stay high, the M’s will be able to get top dollar for them again.
I don’t much understand all of the Jojima talk with Clement just a couple of years off…
Catchers are notoriously slow to develop. And with Jojima being 29, they’re not looking at give him more than a two or three year deal anyway. It could easily take Clement that long to make the majors. Besides, there would be nothing wrong with them splitting time 50/50 in Jojima’s last year / Clement’s rookie year. I’d rather break in a rookie catcher that way, anyway.
RE 51,
Quentin isn’t even the D-backs third best prospect. This is how I would rank their prospects:
1. Stephen Drew
2. Justin Upton
3. Connor Jackson
4. Carlos Quentin
5. Carlos Gonzales
Among the advanced guys, Jackson has passed Quentin as the next guy on the latter. The D-backs have tried Quentin in CF, but he doesn’t have the range to be average there. Unfortunately for Quentin, the D-backs have Luis Gonzales for at least one more year, with an option for 2007, they recently signed Shawn Green long-term. Chad Tracey is best on the OF corners, although they can play him at 1B. However, they have a log-jam at 1B as well. Jackson is the best hitter among their advanced prospects, and he will either play 1B or LF. They also just resigned Tony Clark, which makes getting ABs for Jackson tough.
The D-backs have a serious issue with getting their prospects opportunities, which makes a lot of their moves to resign guys like Green and Clark seem strange. They are blocking their prospects like Anaheim.
If the D-backs need a legit CF player, Reed for Quentin makes sense. Both are top-25 prospects (well, Reed was before he played a full season). Quentin has better offensive upside, but Reed play gold-glove caliber defense at the premium position. It is a pretty reasonable move for both teams.
You do have to compete periodically or the fans will go away? Guess we disproved that this year, but I see your long-term point. Interesting that if TV ratings are still so high, FSN didn’t replay a single M’s game in 2005 as they have in year’s past. Almost every other team included with the MLB Extra Innings package showed replays of every televised game. Perhaps that daytime “Paid Programming” really pays the bills.
Good point on Jojima #57, but I wonder if he’d settle for a two year deal on the open market? Perhaps, given the geographics, but I’m not sure a guy on the short-half of a platoon in year 3 would be the best target given what we hopefully have in Clement. Then again, even a #3 overall pick is no sure-fire superstar and who’s to say how fast Clement develops, even with the college experience? It’s hit-and-miss enough that I begin to feel myself yield a bit on a potential Joji pursuit…
#3 overall picks in the 1990’s:
1990 Mike Lieberthal, Phillies, C (good, no real impact until ’97)
1991 David McCarty, Twinkies, OF (bust unless he becomes stud LH reliever ;))
1992 Billy Wallace, Expos, LHP (who?)
1993 Brian Anderson, Angels, LHP (bust, for the most part)
1994 Dustin Hermanson, Padres, RHP (pretty solid, now in exile after Jenks coup)
1995 Jose Cruz Jr, Us, OF (so-so)
1996 Braden Looper, Cardinals, RHP (so-so, see note above re: exile)
1997 Troy Glaus, Angels, 3B (muy bien)
1998 Corey Patterson, Cubbies, OF (so-so)
1999 Eric Munson, Tigers, C (bust)
2000 Luis Montañez, Cubbies, SS (who?)
I’d be real happy with a Lieberthal-esque career from Clement, sans a few injuries and some accelerated Trojan-related development…
Jerry, you are correct, I forgot Conor Jackson. However, you did spell his name wrong.
If we signed Johjima and end up in a situation where both are producing great, we could simply trade Johjima and/or stick him at DH. Clement is NOT at all a reason to not consider signing Johjima.
Oh, I think when arguably your best minor league prospect is perhaps a couple of years out and plays the same position as a very expensive FA, it is far from “not” a reason to pursue what would likely be the highest priced FA at his position. Reports have him getting far better potential offers than Ramon Hernandez. It’s probably somewhere in between a big concern and not a concern, but to view it as a moot point in light of the positional premium you’d pay for any good-hitting catcher would be short-sighted IMHO. Perhaps the more salient point is that Clement becomes a DH/1B type as he is apparently no great shakes defensively. Hopefully Roger Hansen won’t turn him into Miggy Olivo redux this offseason. Was that all they talked about this Spring or was it just all I heard? Anyway, I still think you’d pay a hefty premium for the best FA catcher on the market, but DH would certainly be an option, probably more likely for Clement if Jojima was signed…
ML — interesting point about the mediocrity of number 3’s in the ’90’s.
I checked the ’80’s and its pretty much the same — 1 1/2 all star calibre players — Matt Williams and Steve Avery — and a lot of meh.
Mariners had the third pick in ’89 and took Roger Salkeld, high school power arm from SoCal. Later picks in that round included Frank Thomas, Mo Vaughn, and Chuck Knoblauch.
The M’s actually had two picks in the first round that year — the 2d, a Connecticut high school pitcher named Scott Burrell, never threw a major league pitch. Didn’t sign with the Mariners, but did go on to become a UConn Husky basketball legend. Also played in the NBA (and a few summers in the Blue Jays system).
It stands to reason that Clement would be available as a DH/1B much sooner than a “couple” years out…
However, how is Clement “apparently no great shakes defensively”? Have we seen any scouting reports since draft day that say he isn’t progressing as a defensive catcher?
Adam Jones had a 4/6 day the other day, and is beginning to look respectable as a power-hitting LO hitter in the AFL…
Can we say AAA 2006???
Also, the Philly Inquirer suggests that Gillick should trade Thome for a decent middle reliever (Mateo, anyone???)
RE 59
They did replay multiple games during the daytime this year. You are incorrect in saying they did not.
Really 66? I never saw one, and I’m a pretty vigilant baseball viewer who used to enjoy watching the M’s replays all the time in past years. Never saw one this year, and the anomaly of it all was that every other team did have replays except teams like the Pads that aren’t included in the MLB package. Perhaps it’s just a brain fart on my part, stranger things have happened. I disagree about the timing on Clement though. I’d expect to see some partial numbers for ’07, but nothing of consequence any sooner. Hope I’m wrong about that…
Haven’t seen any scouting reports JS beyond the usual anecdotal chatter, and the few times I’ve seen USC play, but hopefully Roger Hansen can help him on the some of the finer points of footwork, game calling and pacing, etc. Generally, arm strength, or lack thereof in Jeff’s case, isn’t something you can learn…
Look at this juicy tidbit on Rotoworld.com
The Mariners could pursue Carlos Delgado and the Yankees’ Carl Pavano — two of their top free agent targets from last winter — in trade talks at the GM meetings.
The Marlins are expected to make Delgado available. If the Mariners acquired him, he’d likely be used as a DH most of the time, with Richie Sexson staying at first base. Delgado indicated last winter that he didn’t want to be a DH, but he’s not going to have a say in where he goes if the Marlins elect to move him.
Would definitely make the team more exciting to watch.
Pavano had a 2.89 ERA last year away from Yankee Stadium. It was only 8 games, relatively small sample size, but still, it’s somewhat relevent.
I would be hesitant on both those players. Both indicated highly that they wanted to be on the east coast and would be able to demand a trade after the 06 season.
ML, what reports are you citing on Johjima’s potential offers? And again, how is it at all a concern when you can just stick one at DH and/or trade? Should the Ms stop bothering to draft 3B because they have Beltre? or CF because of Adam Jones? Did you think the same thing 5 years ago when it looked like we had a glut of top SP prospects? The idea is to stockpile all the talent you can and when Johjima should provide more value than he costs, there’s no reason not to aggressive.
ML the Insider. LOL. That’s rich.
It seems like everyone else just ignored the dispicable “vote of confidence” given to Bavasi. It just confirmed my worst fears about the people in charge of this once great team. Get used to players like Bavasi targets Jacque Jones and Brian Giles.
How come there has been no talk of getting Godzilla? He would be perfect. Much better value than Delgado.
I would love to have Godzilla here hopefully the yanks fall on their face resigning him.
Doubt that will happen tho
From ESPN.com today:
“There’s been speculation that Giles, a California native, wants to stay on the West Coast, but agent Joe Bick said the outfielder’s main objective is signing with a team that has a chance to be a postseason contender for the duration of his next contract.”
Looks like we’re off the hook
C’mon. The wait until 2007/2008 mantra is getting old.
Giles had a quote earlier that the Mariners were under consideration and we’re only 2-3 players away from being a contender. If he signs, that’s only 1-2 players away.
And in the article you quote, the list of 5 potential Giles destinations includes the Mariners.
In re 42 and Gillick speculation — it’s actually quite common for new GMs or managers to deal with their most recent former teams; many people in that situation have a favorite player/prospect or two they want to bring along. Remember, as one example, the deal we made with the Reds one year into Sweet Lou’s tenure, which was driven by the fact that Lou wanted Dan Wilson and wasn’t all that fond of Bret Boone. I wouldn’t be at all surprised, if Pat’s looking to move Burrell or Abreu, to hear that he called up Bavasi with a couple names in mind.
Ooh, I’d love to get Delgado. southpaw, I’ve seen numerous mentions that if posted Jojima would likely be the highest priced FA catcher available and I’ll try to dig up a link. After all, Ramon Hernandez and what he’ll reportedly command as the current best-in-class FA at his position isn’t precisely a world beater given that he’s a 30-year old with a .740 OPS. Still, it points out how weak the crop of available catchers almost always is. My point: If someone really wants a catcher, Jojima is obviously a hot commodity. If you see it as a black and white issue of complete irrelevance in signing the top FA catcher when your stud minor league prospect is also a catcher – two years away, or less, then that seems like black and white thinking to me. It’s more a shade of gray. Sure you can always DH one or the other, but you pay a certain best-in-class premium for coveted positions like catchers just to use one as a DH. I don’t think it’s a deal breaker, but I also do not share your viewpoint that it is “NOT” a concern to sign a catcher to a huge contract when your best prospect is a catcher whose development should be fairly accerelated. Even though one or the other could DH, you pay a premium because of their value in the heinously catcher-thin major leagues. I guess we’ll have to agree to differ on the issue. It doesn’t make me completely opposed to a Jojima signing, especially if early returns from the M’s on Clement’s D are as in the past, I just wonder if it’s a “fill-the-biggest-hole” type of move. To me, it seems to be just the opposite…
#73, pretty debatable that Matsui is a much better value than Delgado, although he is a couple of years younger:
Matsui 32 (.853 OPS)
Delgado 34 (.952)
From watching about 150 Yankees games this year on YES, I doubt he’d be a huge improvement over Ibañez in LF either…
Jojima to use the Big Unit’s agent:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getsp.pl5?sb20051107j1.htm
just a reminder re: Matsui, the Yanks still have until the 15th to sign him; he wants to be there, they want him there. Sounds like the only hiccup might be if he wants more years than they want to give him….
The other four teams listed as being in the running for Giles are the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, and the frontrunner, the Cardinals.
Looking at the quote again:
“There’s been speculation that Giles, a California native, wants to stay on the West Coast, but agent Joe Bick said the outfielder’s main objective is signing with a team that has a chance to be a postseason contender for the duration of his next contract.â€Â
Without looking around too hard, I found a website that had odds for winning the 2006 World Series:
St. Louis Cardinals: 5-1
NY Yankees: 5-1
Boston Red Sox: 7-1
Cleveland Indians: 15-1
Seattle Mariners: 75-1
Whatever the real odds are— the public perception is that the M’s have basically no shot at winning the World Series in 2006, or even being competitive for the playoffs. For reference, the only teams listed at longer odds than the Mariners were Pittsburgh and Colorado at 100-1, Tampa Bay at 200-1, and Kansas City at 500-1.
Anyhows, if Giles really is serious about going to a team has a chance to be a postseason contender for the duration of his contract, which to me would mean all of his contract—no, it’s not going to happen here in Seattle.
The Padres initially offered Giles 3yr/$21m. According to Giles’ ESPN player card: “With more than a few teams looking for a left-handed power hitter, the 34-year old veteran should command a raise above the $8.33 million he made in 2005. It, of course, would be a homecoming for Giles, who was drafted by Cleveland and played his first four big league seasons with the Indians.”
My point in all of this: I don’t want to see the M’s pay 3yr/$25m for a guy who’s going to be 35 in January. The contract would run from age 35-37, and could be at best be described as an “age risk”. If other teams that have a shot to win the World Series think he’s the last piece of the puzzle and a good short-term gamble, great, they can have him. It’s a reasonable move to make for a team competing to win the World Series, I think it’s a bad move for a Mariners team that is clearly 2-3 years away, at a minimum.
You vastly underrate how easy it is for a bad team to become a good team, and how rare it is for a player to actually sign with a team because of their current roster construction in lieu of value of the offer.