Dave’s Offseason Plan
The last two years, I’ve presented my offseason plan. After the 2003 season, the organization went as far away from my suggestions as humanly possible, and the team promptly went in the tank. Realizing the error of their ways, they actually made several of the moves I suggested after last offseason, and the team returned to championship form immediately. What? They still sucked? Well, that’s not my fault. I blame Canada.
So, with my track record firmly established, I now present to you the Third Annual Offseason Dave’s Plan. This is what I would attempt to do if the team decided to give me reign of the organization. The numbers after the players are their projected 2006 salaries in millions. This is actual 2006 payout, not annual average value of the contract. Obviously, on free agents, I had to guesstime how much it would cost to sign the player. Hopefully, I was somewhere in the ballpark. Onward ho.
Starting C Jojima 3.50
Backup C Torrealba 1.00Starting 1B Sexson 11.50
Backup 1B Helms 2.00Starting 2B Lopez 0.32
Backup 2B Bloomquist 0.75Starting SS Betancourt 0.35
Starting 3B Beltre 11.50
Starting LF J. Jones 5.00
Backup LF Bohn 0.32Starting CF Reed 0.32
Starting RF Ichiro 11.50
Backup RF Morse 0.32Starting DH Ibanez 4.25
Offense 49.11
#1 Starter Burnett 10.00
#2 Starter Felix 0.32
#3 Starter Loaiza 6.00
#4 Starter Moyer 3.00
#5 Starter Pineiro 6.30
#6 Starter Brown 2.00Closer Guardado 6.25
Setup Sherrill 0.32
Setup Soriano 0.32
Mid Relief Putz 0.50
Mid Relief Mateo 0.50
Long Relief Atchison 0.32Pitching 35.81
Scott Spiezio 3.35
Pokey’s Buyout 0.30
Wiki’s Buyout 0.25
Shiggy’s Buyout 0.33Sunk Costs 4.23
Total Commitments 89.15
Free Agent Signings
A.J. Burnett: 4 years, $46 million
Esteban Loaiza: 3 years, $18 million
Jacque Jones: 2 years, $10 million
Kenji Jojima: 2 years, $7 million
Jamie Moyer: 1 year, $3 million, incentives could push total value to $5 million
Kevin Brown: 1 year, $2 million, incentives could push total value to $5 million
Wes Helms: 1 year, $2 million
At $89 million on actual payroll, this is likely a little bit out of the M’s current budget. They’ve averaged about $85 million on actual payroll the past few seasons (they report a much higher number which includes numbers that no other team considers part of “payroll”). However, the team has consistently shown the ability to move payroll at the trade deadline, so if the team is not contending, it would not be a challenge to come in under budget. And, if the team is contending, well, then the extra outlay of a million here or there was well worth it, no?
We’ve discussed most of these moves in their own previous posts. For guys like Burnett, Jones, Jojima, and Brown, you should be well aware of why I support their acquisitions. A few quick notes on the others:
Esteban Loaiza, at worst, is an innings-eater in the middle of the rotation who can work deep into games without being terrible. At best, he’s one of the better starting pitchers in baseball. Consistency is a problem, and there’s no real way to know what you’re going to get with him, but the cost to acquire a player with such significant upside and limited downside, especially in a market that looks like its going to go insane, is too good to pass up. I think he’s this years Jon Lieber.
Wes Helms gives the team a reliable bat off the bench, the guy they think Greg Dobbs is but that he never will be. He hit .298/.356/.458 last year, which included a .300/.375/.506 mark against lefties. Since Jones will need to be platooned, Helms bat fits in nicely at DH against southpaws. He can play first or third and give them the pinch-hitting bat they’ve lacked the past several seasons.
T.J. Bohn is never going to be a full-time major league player, but the things that he does well right now will translate to the major league level immediately. He’s a strong defensive player with a great arm who can play any of the three outfield spots. He has good baserunning instincts and is deceptively fast, making him a stolen base threat as a pinch-runner. He has gap power and can drive the ball when he makes contact. He probably won’t be an asset as a hitter, but as a 5th outfielder, he’s better than Jamal Strong. If he continues to improve like he has, he could end up stealing some at-bats from Reed and Jones before the year is up.
So, there’s the plan. I’d estimate that this team would win somewhere between 85-95 games and contend for a playoff spot. These moves aren’t likely to happen, but this is what I would attempt to accomplish given a hypothetical situation where my opinions mattered.
Comments
181 Responses to “Dave’s Offseason Plan”
Looks like a good plan to me. When next season rolls around, can you post a link back to this posting, so we can compare what the M’s actually did with what you would have done?
No Millwood? Would he be too expensive or just not right?
Very nice and fairly plausible. Doubtful that the FO would conduct such a dramatic facelift, but we can dream. With six starters, who would be the odd man out? Moyer with the home starter idea?
Dave,
I’m noticing six starters and twenty-six players on your roster. That doesn’t seem right to me. What’s the deal? (Or are you just buying starter insurance?)
There’s no lefty bat on the bench, which is pretty much a necessity when Betancourt, or even Lopez is up in the 8th and 9th. Not sure why you would have both Bohn and Morse on the team. That seems pretty redundant. Not that it matters really, since Grover rarely ever uses a 5 man bench.
That team could win 90 games. The variable would be in the rotation – whether Moyer/Pineiro/Brown have anything left.
Also, I think Burnett will cost more. And Loaiza will likely command more too. I believe he turned down a $6 million player option after the season, so he probably wants more. The competition for Johjima will likely drive his price up past $5 million. If there’s anything we’ve learned from the last few offseasons, it’s that everything costs more than we originally thought.
The first two links of this post link back to the last two that I’ve done, so you guys can see how things would have shaken out.
The market has shifted; Millwood is going to be overpriced in relation to Burnett, now, I think.
The six starters reflect the fact that Brown is a massive injury risk and will be on the DL for at least part of the season; when he’s healthy, someone else won’t be, and building depth into the roster is never a bad idea.
So, the plan is: When Brown’s healthy, rotate Atchison back to Tacoma and move Pineiro to the bullpen?
What about the rumors that the M’s are chasing Brian Giles. What would that do to your offseason plan, Dave?
Dave,
Thanks for the great post, I always enjoy reading your work. I was thinking about a way to get the payroll down by a few million and I came up with an idea. Instead of signing Jones, sign Travis Lee (have him platoon). Move Ibanez to left, have Sexson DH, and have Lee play first.
In your post for Jones you said that you expect him to have an offensive value of around 25 and a defensive value that is also around 25. Looking at David Gassto’s defensive ratings Lee ranks as a +21 while Sexson ranks as a -14. Thus having Lee at first is worth 35 runs over replacement on defense. Looking at his offensive contribution, over the last 3 years vs. righties his line is .276/.339/.445. This offensive production is very similar to the projection that you had for Jones (offensive value of 25). Overall his contribution is at 60.
Lee should be available for much less than Jones. Maybe 2 years, 4 million. This saves $3 million off next year’s payroll with a possible rise in production.
I like Giles, and I think he’d be a good addition. But I’d rather have Jones at 2/10 and spend the savings on Loaiza than have Giles at 3/30.
I don’t put any credibility in Gassko’s ratings. There’s no way that Lee was 35 runs better than Sexson defensively last year.
The problem with Travis Lee is that your stuck with Travis Lee in your line-up (damn you Joe Theismann). I think Mark Sweeney is a much better option to fill in at first, dh and corner outfield, better than Helms too.
I like this roster construction, but what happens when Grover insists on a 7 man bullpen. And what happens to Meche? Traded or non-tendered? I don’t care, I am just curious as to what Dave thinks M’s management will do with him.
Meche and Franklin should, and in all likelyhood will, be non-tendered.
I would love to see travis in a m’s uni at some point…M’s do love the home-state boys. He isn’t just home state to me, he’s hometown. (I may be suffering from a disease of hometownitis, also known as “bloomquist syndrome.”)
in all fairness to Trav’s “busted” potential, he wasn’t healthy for any consistent time and everytime he seemed to just start to put it all together, something bad happened. It got to the point that he was talking of retirement after his yankee time, he was losing his joy of the game.
i know from playing with and against him that he is a tremendous defensive 1b, and while i don’t know about the ratings, he is probably a lateral step from Sexson at worst. The only high school player i’ve seen who was a better more dominant hitter was Ian Stewart, one of the jewels of the Rockies organization. Trav’s potential is still there, he displayed it at every level short of the pros, and even in the bigs he has been “servicable.”
and for the record offensively, he finally started to hit with some power and consistency the second half…
still, i want to dream during this time of year, and my dreams are bigger. I would love to have Trav be a bench pinch hit/defensive replacement guy. But start him for 160? Not if we can get someone better.
Love the Loaiza idea. Love the potential for Brown. And there is nobody available the even comes close to AJ’s potential.
If we don’t sign the catcher you want, what are the chances of the USC stud making the big roster this year?
and i noticed a delgado sighting in one of the local papers, with Richie moving to OF. Is this even remotely logical or possible? or is it a case of “griffeyitis?”
final thought… how about some non-fiction/fiction essays…
I would love to hear a USSM article on the “Tipping Points” of the standings free-fall from 2001 to today, and a second one of fiction predicting a resurgence of the team to national relevance and playoff competitiveness.
Dave: Nice thoughts. But let’s suppose for the moment that the Mariners decide to add a high priced left handed bat (say, Giles or Delgado) to immediately upgrade the middle of the order. I’m not suggesting that I agree with that plan–those guys are both a little old–but if they did that, they’d undoubtedly pass on Jones and have less $$ to spend on pitching and/or catching. How would you adjust your plan in that event? Is Jojima or a second decent starter more important in your eyes?
In “a market that looks like its going to go insane,” I’m rather dubious that the proposed free agent contracts would really work. The news from Burnett’s camp is that he wants five years, and I would expect he’ll get that from somebody. Loaiza is getting looked at by quite a few teams thinking of him as a potential bargain, which makes it a lot less likely that his final price will actually be a bargain. Heck, the market’s so crazy it may even make Moyer more expensive.
Otherwise, I like the overall picture. The aggressive approach to using Bohn sounds good to me. Maybe if we push him like we did Morse, he might surprise us and have more value than we thought. The only problem is trying to capitalize on that value before they turn back into pumpkins.
You know, Griffey isn’t going to cost much more than Jacque Jones. Not in 2006 at least. If we can trade Pineiro for Griffey we’d be sending a net $6 million on Griffey for ’06 (Griffey $12m – Pineiro 6.3 m). Of course in 2007 and beyond we’d be on the hook for Griffey’s full salary. That’s the catch that would seal the deal for the Reds.
Your rotation would be Pineiro-less, but you’d have Foppert/Blackley/Livingston/Bazardo/Cruceta/Harris as 6th starter options if Brown gets hurt. And you wouldn’t have to spend $2m on Helms either since Griffey doesn’t need a platoon. Griffey get hurt, but with any luck at all Snelling will be healthy soon enough to absorb some of the loss, or Choo will figure it out in Tacoma.
Bob Finnegan, is that you?
Dave,
I agree that Gassto’s def. ratings don’t seem fully accurate. However, didn’t you use them to argue that Jones is worth 25-35 runs better than replacement? I think that that Jones is a good player, but I am not sure that he adds much more defensively is LF than Lee would at 1B.
I hope “that” Brown isn’t Kevin Brown. IMHO, just say no to this joke of a free agent class, with the possible exceptions of Giles and Jojima. No way in hell will anyone get Jojima for anything resembling 3.5M per with the Mets in hot pursuit. I’d rather poke out my own eye than pay nearly $50M to Burnett. The rest looks good though, especially if we could get Jojima for something in the neighborhood that you identified. I’ll bet he’ll command at least double that though now that Alan Nero is on the job…
Dave,
I especially like using T.J. Bohn in Seattle this year. I was fortunate enough to watch him have a super year at San Antonio and I agree with you 100% — he will probably never be a major-league starter (although we thought that about Scott Podsednik, too) but will make a good bench player with his speed, defense and occasional power, and be cheap, at that.
I thought it was against the CBA to lower Moyer’s salary to less than 80% of last years salary. Is there a way around that?
Every defensive rating system known to man ranks Jacque Jones as an elite defensive corner outfielder. Safeco Field has also slanted towards being a flyball park (for reasons no one is completely sure of), and on top of that, the Mariners have a flyball pitching staff.
Add in that the most significant chunk of land in Safeco is in the left center field gap, and it’s readily apparent to me that a great defensive LF is significantly more important to the M’s than a great defensive 1B. So, even if go with the assumption that Jones and Lee are similar defensive talents relative to their positions, Jones is going to make the much larger impact on the M’s by basis of playing left field.
And, I won’t cede the assumption that Lee = Jones defensively. I don’t think the current defensive metrics do a good job on first baseman at all, and there’s nothing at all like the consensus on Lee’s glove that there is on Jones’.
Hi slim! I don’t think it’s a question of Brown getting hurt, he’ll be staying hurt as long as he tries to pitch. With his violent delivery and chronic endemic lower disc problems, he’s completely shot at 41. After all, let’s not forget he had almost a 7.00 ERA last year for Heaven’s sake…
#22, yes and no. If we non-tender Moyer, he’s a FA and we can’t sign him until May 1st, but then all monetary restrictions are off the table…
ML,
Feel free to go read the Brown post. It’s even linked for ease of use.
The 80 percent rule only applies to players where their salary is determined through arbitration. Since Moyer is a free agent, that is a moot point.
Interesting plan. Nice.
Big improvements on the pitching side, but I don’t see much change on offense.
We didn’t have a good offense last year – is the addition of Jojima, J Jones, a hoped-for bounceback from Beltre, the assumed/expected improvement of young guys like Reed, Betancourt, and Lopez, and a slightly better bench really going to get us to 90 wins? I just don’t see all that adding up to much – I could be wrong, though.
Dave, great write up. How would you expect the Bill Bavasi offseason plan to differ from your own? (If this delves into too much information that you are not liberty to disclose, or you are saving for a future post, please disregard.)
Aside from Giles (who you discussed above), who else received strong consideration for your recommendations (and might serve as a Plan B if any of the free agents become too costly or elect to go elsewhere)?
I like it on the whole, I think Helms is a good choice and Bohn does have some uses as a fourth outfielder for cheap (I’ll add that I like his ability to take a walk when he’s not hitting), but what of Nageotte? I’d consider taking him over Atchison, maybe giving him the long-relief job in the hopes that he could switch to the rotation in a couple of years, but while Clint’s been up and down, Atch has been mostly on an upward trend.
I’ll do a “what I think the M’s are going to do” post later this week.
I don’t think Nags would be hurt by starting the year in Tacoma, while Atch has mostly proven he’s ready for a major league job. If Nageotte comes to ST throwing 95 and dominating, I’ll find room for him. But I’m not going out of my way to hand him a job in November.
I’m in agreement there, just wanted to know what your thoughts were on him. It seems like he’s starting to put together a strong, groundball repertoire.
Hot dawg…we get to argue plans!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think you underestimated the cost of that proposed rotation by at least 6 million though….
Someone suggested Pineiro for Griffey? That isnt very plausible. The Reds already have several guys who can give them a 5+ ERA. They would probably give the M’s Eric Milton for Joel though….
The key for Nageotte is whether can throw strikes. His G/F rate this year was new, and in a small sample. We’ll see if he can sustain it.
But none of this is news. The stuff is there for him to be a good reliever, maybe even a dominant one. But he’s got to refine his command.
I don’t care for Brown particularly, for reasons previously stated at length- I think his injury history means high odds that you’ll waste 2 million dollars, and would prefer someone else with a good history as a long relief/emergency starter swing man who won’t throw a fit and can be effective if they end up in the bullpen (hmm, maybe Ron Villone’s available if the Marlins are salary dumping).
Other than that, though, I could live with this.
Keep in mind Johjima COULD come out of the “acquisition budget”.
Thanks for the link Dave, great stuff throughout the Brown thread, but just the body language and everything about Kevin Brown when that little cutie Kim Jones from YES would interview him after every start this year seems to trend toward retirement or further flailing and injury rather than any kind of resurrection.
“Since Moyer is a FA, that is a moot point”
No, not really, to become a FA, he’d either have to be released (and couldn’t be re-signed until May 1) or be sent outright to the minors…
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/247209_mbok05.html
We didn’t have a good offense last year – is the addition of Jojima, J Jones, a hoped-for bounceback from Beltre, the assumed/expected improvement of young guys like Reed, Betancourt, and Lopez, and a slightly better bench really going to get us to 90 wins? I just don’t see all that adding up to much – I could be wrong, though.
The Angels and the A’s scored 761 and 772 runs, respectively. We scored 699- so basically we’re talking about improving the offense about 10% net. We won’t have a black hole at C (our combined C OPS was almost 100 points below anyone else’s in the AL), and yeah, the four young players you mentioned SHOULD be collectively improved in 2006 over 2005.
No-one’s going to mistake us for Boston, St. Louis or the Yankees, but we don’t have to be THAT good to contend.
No, not really, to become a FA, he’d either have to be released (and couldn’t be re-signed until May 1) or be sent outright to the minors…
Or, you know, he could just file for free agency.
Seriously, the M’s don’t have to do anything. If Moyer wants to become a free agent, he can be.
Dave–Thankyou for the time and effort. The idea of Bohn is supported by the facts you stated especially baserunning, strong arm in field. May actually be better roster choice than Morse.
Really hope Mariners sign Johjima. Although wouldn’t his salary or portion come from that mysterious fund for non US players?
Burnett seems to be unlikely I was convinced by article that wife will have substantial input and is Maryland native. Sounds like East coast to me. Hope I am wrong.
Not even certain why the Giles rumours are floating as it is doubtful for reasons he has articulated.
Dave no hint of any trades in this roster make over. A few weeks ago you hinted at some possible trades in the works but could not reveal. Could you let us know if there are any especially juicy potential deals being discussed?
Thankyou again as this post should inspire much intertaining reading.
Lastly Dave I wonder what moves you would make if you were not so fiscally responsible (or restrained)
I’m not arguing that Moyer can’t become a FA if he wants to, it’s just that the CBA includes for both an April Moyer hiatus (which we could certainly live with) if non-tendered due to the May 1 limitation as well as the 80% stipulation contract reduction if a current player is non-tendered. The CBA 80% rule appears to apply to non-tenders as well as arbitration:
http://www.businessofbaseball.com/docs/2002_2006basicagreement.pdf
See pg. 15, Contract submission from club, pg 24 Maximum salary reduction, pg. 75 Reservation Rights of Clubs, and attachments 9 and 11…
Sigh. I’ve never seen someone go to so much work to argue something so meaningless.
The original question was “Can the M’s pay him less than 80 percent of his 2005 salary next year?”
The answer is an unequivocal yes. When Moyer files for free agency, the 80 percent rule goes out the window, as does everything else you’re quoting.
All of my long-windedness aside, I do expect Moyer to file (fingers crossed) by the mandatory Thursday deadline, but am a little circumspect about your proposed $3M price tag if he does. I could live with Moyer for $3M (preferably incentive-laden), but as pointed out earlier, outrageous FA offers are the trend…
#39:
It’s not a big deal. The Mariners simply open contract disucssions with Moyer without regard to his current contract. If Moyer and the M’s can’t come to agreement by the date to tender arb, Moyer becomea a free agent. In fact, in the opening discussions the Mariners probably let Moyer know that’s what they intend to do. In doing so, the 80% max reduction clause becomes totally irrelevant. Moyer either resigns with the Mariners by the tender date, or he leaves the Ms.
Of course, if Moyer wants to increase his leverage during negotitations, he files for free agency so there is a bigger market for his services.
In fact, there really isn’t any reason for Moyer to not file for free agency.
Dave,
a minor point: According to the mariner contract sheet, Sexson gets 17.5 million in 2006 (11.5 plus 6 signing bonus). Ichiro, on the other hand, only gets 9.5 million. Still, this might mean that you have to replace Loiza with Harris or another cheap option. In spite of this and your track record, I like your ideas. Seriously, your post from last year shows how unpredictable things are: both you and the Ms counted on Madritsch, Reese and Jacobsen (not sure for the team in this respect) to be contributors. Combine that with Olivo, Pineiro, Meche and Spiezio performing at career levels and last year’s team wouldn’t have been half as bad.
Jacque Jones?
Kevin Brown?
Burnett?
Are you freakin’ kidding?
Jones is exactly the type of player that this team DOES NOT need. (i.e. mediocre aging veteran). I shudder at the thought of Jones’ bat away from the homer-dome. Can anyone say Scott Spiezio Part Deux?
And while I’d like to have Burnett, I sure as hell don’t want to outbid the enitire AL East to get him. He’ll sign for money that is even more ridiculous than what Pavano got. The strikeouts and groundball are nice, but not at 15m per, plus the inevitable season ending injuries that will occur at least once over the length of the contract. Though we could probably finish .500 if we got 65 starts from Felix and Burnett, and Piniero could pull his head out of his ass and kepp his ERA below 4 and a half.
Burnett would be an a great, but unlikely acquisition. Loazia may end up costing more than you project. I remember reading something about his asking price being close to 8 million a year for 3/4 years? This is a thin year for pitching, but I don’t know what it worse… overpaying or standing still and being terrible for yet another year.
I’d also be interested in a post that predicts “what the M’s/Finnigan will CLAIM to be their payroll for this year”. For example, the $89.15M roster you’ve proposed would unfortunately be spun as “really” $112.5M (and therefore not doable) because we’re still paying for Buhner’s haircuts, Cirillo’s moving expenses, Ichiro’s posting fee, and Charles Gipson’s playoff shares from 2001 (hey it’s a 2001 reference so don’t question it!). But seriously, I wonder how much funny money analysis they’ll spoonfeed to Finny for his offseason articles.
Dave, that was never my original question. Frankly, it is fairly meaningless to me whether Moyer is even back at all next year given his deadline posturing. At any rate, it wasn’t much work
. Sorry to exasperate you, but the real question in my mind is “Is your proposed $3M figure in the ballpark (pardon the pun) given the constraints we know of?”. We’ve always known we could pay Moyer less than 80% of his current salary through a variety of mechanisms with myriad tradeoffs, that wasn’t my point. In #25, I pointed out the options. Highly likely that he’ll do anything but file IMHO. I just don’t think $3M is a realistic projection on the open market. Because if it isn’t an “open” market, it’s the $6.4M or some other mechanism. Ideally, he files and we can do a small base with heavy incentives, but I’d argue he’ll command at least double your estimate as, if we all expect, he does declare in the next four days…
I really think Burnett is going to end up in Toronto, but I still love the Brown signing.
I’m not sold on Loaiza, but I don’t have a better suggestion.
While much has been written about how overrated Dan Wilson was in handling pitchers; but it’s not an unimportant aspect of the game. Has any serious consideration been given to how Jojima’s language barrier could impact his ability to manage pitchers during a game?
Good post #42, and especially prescient on the analysis of Moyer’s bargaining power. Why not file by Thursday? In effect you lock yourself into the Decemeber 20th date (CBA Page 214) and lose all leverage. With Moyer being “a leverage kinda guy” as he frustratingly displayed at the deadline, and coming off his 10-0, 2.95 at home (don’t look at the road numbers suitors!) frankly, I can’t see him waiting for the Thursday deadline to pass and taking all his chips off the table in the process…
Don’t the Expos have an option on Loaiza? Seems to me that they’d excercise it.
Great stuff, Dave.
One question… I notice you don’t propose any offseasonn trades, all free-agent pick-ups.
Is that because you don’t see any realistic trades worth making or because it’s just entirely too speculative to propose?
God help us all if Moyer returns. The league hit .285(?) against him, with power. His 4-something ERA was a complete mirage, and he no longer is effective righthanded hitters. In fact, I think he broke even. He will put up an ERA close to 6.00 next year. I could be wrong, but do you want to pay $7m to find out? Moyer has already stated that he wants to be paid roughly what he was last year. I tdon’t see him taking a 50%+ paycut to stay in Seattle.
Me thinks with all of this available space on the 40 man, Bavasi has some real Rule V “gems” spinning around in that big old cabeza…
Loaiza and the Nationals had mutual options. Loaiza declined his and became a free agent. He reportedly asked for 3 years and $21 million but was offered 2 years and $12 million. 3/18 might be a little low, but it’s in the ballpark of what he signs for, I’d bet.
I went with all free agent pickups because the trade market is just so murky right now, no one really has any idea what is possible.
Like Luis Ugueto? Kidding, but I wouldn’t finding another Rule V gem along the likes of say… Johan Santana. Any aging players that have been trapped in the minor (that are good) that you can think of?
Amen JI. Loaiza’s option was mutual though, and the ‘sponats were the only side that wanted to re-up…
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=5368
I’m not big on Loiaza, that’s a lot of money to pay for a guy who’d just be average in the AL. If we were on the brink of competeing and we needed a good innings eater 4th/5th starter, then yes. But he has no purpose on a rebuilding team. If we sign players they better be young ones…
Someone will be dumb enough to pay both of them. Diamondbacks? Royals?
Loiaza has “future Royal” written all over him.
Heck, we could use a good pinch runner JI! Jamal could always fit that bill though, broken hand and all. I loved Bohn to death from what I saw of him last year in T-Town. Led the M’s ml organization in hits and was one of the main reason they lasted until the PCL “World Series”, aside from that other little -ohn guy. A little on the aged side for a real prospect though so I will hold out no false hopes. Great prospective platoon partner with Reed’s impotent #’s vs. LHP though…
Okay, I have a general request that is probably going to get me labeled as an arrogant bastard, but I’m throwing it out there anyways.
How about, instead of just posting opinions, everyone backs them up with reasonable evidence or, at worst, some kind of rationale for why you think that way?
Reading through 20 posts of “Loaiza’s lame!” or “I’d rather have Griffey” doesn’t add anything to the discussion. If you think Loaiza’s going to struggle next year, give us reasons. Explain your case. Use evidence.
I’d much rather read substantial thoughts than a hoard of meaningless opinions.
I think the Expos’ uniforms were so much better than the hideous ones the Gnats wore…
Loiaza had a 105 ERA+, Washington is a cozy place to pitch– also, I think he’ll be 34. I heard the M’s are going after Matt Morris, I like that idea because I like Matt Morris, but I don’t think it’ll help out the M’s much. Morris was falt out awful last year in the 2nd half. When the Cards are balking at signing their franchise pitcher and longest tenured player, you know something’s up.
Yeah, Griffey will return us to the promised land. That’s excatly the kind of contract we need to trade prospects for…*
*Note sarcasm
Definite no on Loaiza. If he wanted $7M per and three years from the Smulyan Indianapolis Hoosiers over three years, I’d hate to invest anything resembling what he’ll command on the open market in a 34 year old innings eater with a long and sordid history of 5+ ERA’s in the AL. Dave’s $6M per is pretty close, probably even a little on the low side (which is a sad state of affairs in-and-of itself) but to say his 2003 was an outlier would be an understatement of gargantuan proportions…
Hey! Do I fall into the “arrogant bastard” or “irrational” category or both? I’ve been accused of both…
#61: How about, instead of just posting opinions, everyone backs them up with reasonable evidence or, at worst, some kind of rationale for why you think that way?
Dave, do you mean that instead of saying things such as 44:
a poster should, you know, actually look up some park factors to see if what they are posting makes sense?
Park facotrs, of course, shows that the “homer dome” nickname for the Metrodome is a major misnomer. The Metrdoome is actually home-run neutral (ranked 14th out the 30 MLB parks in 2005), and is has consistently ranked that way for quite a few years.
But, more pertinent, of course, is how the parks play for LH bats. The most recent info I have on LHB-HR factors is for the 2002-2003 seasons:
Metrodome, LHB-HR factor = 90
Safeco, LHB-HR factor = 100
So far from being a “homer dome”, the Metrodome is actually home run neutral overall and actually suppreses LH power. Safeco, in contrast, is neutral for LH power. So, we should actually expect some power surge from Jacque Jones if played half his games away from the LHB home run suppressing environment of the Metrodome.
So if you’re saying that posters should check out information before posting assumptions that are unfounded, yeah – I agree with you on that.
Loaiza’s striking out an awful lot of guys to be THAT much of a fluke, IMO.
If we didn’t get Loaiza, I wouldn’t be upset if we ended up with Paul Byrd (and if we could get Byrd on a better deal than Loaiza, I might be willing to live with it). Jeff on Lookout Landing did some research indicating he might be helped by Safeco being death to fly balls, and while he doesn’t strike a lot of guys out, his walk rates are low enough that I’m not as worried as I would be with other pitchers (coughRyanFranklincough).
It’s that damn baggie. K’s don’t always correlate to success, just ask Matt Thornton. If Loaiza didn’t have just one stellar AL season and eight fairly average-poor seasons based on comparative league ERA, I probably wouldn’t be so non-plussed. How do you do all the funky formatting stuff 66? Wishing I were special…
I also have to point out that if you picked up Byrd @ 6M instead of Burnett @ 10M and dropped Brown @ 2M, you’d almost certainly be within the M’s budget, at between 83-84 million. (You’d probably end up with Jeff Harris as your swing guy, though…ugh. Maybe spend a million on some better option.)
A rotation of Felix/Moyer/Loiaza/Byrd/Piñeiro isn’t perfect, but if Pineiro comes back to his form of 2003, you have 5 league-average or better pitchers. It’s not a rotation that’s well-constructed FOR the playoffs (you’d like another power arm), but it is pretty deep. If you can keep the commitments to Byrd and Loiaza reasonable (no 3rd year except for an option based on 2007 usage, so if they suck you can yank them from the rotation and the option doesn’t vest) also have flexibility- Piñeiro and Moyer are free agents in 2007, Byrd and Loaiza could be off the roster by 2008. The one thing that worries me about Burnett is his being the only real power arm on the market means you probably have to commit to 4 years to get him, or someone will- and I’m not sure he’s an great candidate to return appropriate value for a 4 year deal with his injury history.
EC,
I’m surprised how big a deal health is to you on Kevin Brown, that you don’t even want to offer him a million or two for one year, but you’re willing to throw $15-18 million at Paul Byrd, who has had major arm problems and has a long history of breaking down.
Byrd’s not the worst option ever, but he’s worse than Loaiza, who ML is just totally wrong about, and I’d rather not have a rotation full of multi-million contact guys.
Steve (#66),
I looked at Jones’ career splits and his safeco batting line is a spitting image of his line at the Metrodome (ok, sample size allert).
And you still have a typo in the link to your homepage (blogpsot instead of blogspot).
I like your plan a lot dave, and think it would go a long way towards improving the M’s next year. m My biggest question lies with AJ Burnett at 4 years $46 million dollars. I would love this signing, but I have doubts whether that will be enough to sign him. I remember hearing 5 years 65 million as his opening offer, and with the upper echelon SP market limited to burnett and millwood, there has to be a strong possibility he gets it (the tigers signings of pudge and magglio come to mind). Plus there is the possibility he pulls a pavano and says he just doesn’t want to come here.
Perhaps this question is unanswerable, but what do the M’s do if they whiff on Burnett and Millwood? Save their budget for later?
Name the last pitcher to get a five year deal.
The money might be a few million low, but I’ll be really surprised if he comes in much higher than 4/52 or so. That’s what Pedro got last year, and Burnett isn’t Pedro.
For our purposes, Paul Byrd is seriously overrated because he’s pitched so well against the Mariners in the past. Fans, management, everybody thinks he’s better than he really is.
Rather than signing Helms, take a flyer on Matt LeCroy or dare I say it…Greg Colbrunn. Or trade for Rick Short or another offensive minded AAAA player or three and have them duke it out during ST. But don’t throw 2 million at Wes Helms.
Hey Dave,
What do you think of the M’s bringing in Erubiel Durazo instead of Jones, and shifting Ibanez to LF for the next year? I still think that Shin Soo Choo has some upside, and he could end up being a similar player to Jones, sacrificing a bit of power for a lot of plate discipline?
Another option is Milton Bradley. The Dodgers are probably not going to offer him a contract. Bradley is probably a better fielder than Jones (I don’t really buy defensive stats, and have no idea if they back up this claim). At the very least, Bradley has CF range and a RF arm, and would also be an awesome LFer. Plus, he can get one base at a decent clip. He is a prick, but I think that his better OBP, age, and skills make him a better player than Jones. Waddya think about that?
One other issue. It will be interesting to see which free agents are offered arbitration by their respective teams. Burnett is sure to cost the M’s a draft pick, and the Nats would be stupid to not offer Loaiza arbitration as well. If the Twins offer abritration (they always seem to pick up picks), the M’s would their 2-4 rounders.
I know that this might seem like a minor thing. But the M’s manage to give away picks every year. It is one thing to lose picks for guys like Beltre, Sexson, or Burnett, buys like Loaiza and Jones are tougher to swallow. This would make a guy like Bradley even more appealing. This whole thing will be a lot more clear in a few weeks.
Unless the O’s out-bid themselves again for Burnett, the general feeling seems to be that he gets ‘Pavano money’
ML said:”Frankly, it is fairly meaningless to me whether Moyer is even back at all next year given his deadline posturing.”
posturing?
#71: I looked at Jones’ career splits and his safeco batting line is a spitting image of his line at the Metrodome (ok, sample size allert).
The sample size is an issue, of course. Park factors are also subject to sample size issues, particularly when the data are parsed more finely (e.g., subdividing HR park factor into LHB and RHB factors). That’s why I used mult-year park factors for LHB-HR. But park factor isn’t quite as sample size constrained as something like Jones’ Safeco stats.
And thanks for the reminder on the home page link. Firefoz always autofills the wrong URL.
Name the last pitcher to get a five year deal.
He may not be the most recent, but Mussina got six from the Yankees in 2000. That was a different time, granted, but I think last year showed we’re moving out of the “market correction” phase.
Burnett obviously isn’t as good as Pedro, but there is one significant difference, which is that he’s younger than Pedro was last year. I think that can probably get him the fifth year. If he’d settle for a vesting option, I’d think about offering him that instead.
What do you think of the M’s bringing in Erubiel Durazo instead of Jones, and shifting Ibanez to LF for the next year?
I’m against almost any idea that has Ibanez playing left field full time. People vastly underestimate the value of a premium defensive left fielder on the Mariners pitching staff.
I still think that Shin Soo Choo has some upside, and he could end up being a similar player to Jones, sacrificing a bit of power for a lot of plate discipline?
I think Choo might be a similar hitter, but he’s never going to be anything close to Jones’ equal with the glove. Which is a big part of Jones’ value. It’s like saying you were okay with letting Cameron go because Winn wasn’t that much worse of a hitter. While true, it missed the point.
Another option is Milton Bradley. The Dodgers are probably not going to offer him a contract. Bradley is probably a better fielder than Jones (I don’t really buy defensive stats, and have no idea if they back up this claim). At the very least, Bradley has CF range and a RF arm, and would also be an awesome LFer. Plus, he can get one base at a decent clip. He is a prick, but I think that his better OBP, age, and skills make him a better player than Jones. Waddya think about that?
Bradley’s not coming here. Bradley’s not better defensively than Jones. I think you should do some more research into things like UZR and PMR before writing them off completely.
One other issue. It will be interesting to see which free agents are offered arbitration by their respective teams. Burnett is sure to cost the M’s a draft pick, and the Nats would be stupid to not offer Loaiza arbitration as well. If the Twins offer abritration (they always seem to pick up picks), the M’s would their 2-4 rounders.
Losing a first round pick is a big deal, but the M’s can’t do that this year. Losing a second round pick is an annoyance. Losing anything after that is inconsequential in the decision making process.
Byrd’s beating Brown in recent 200+ IP seasons (since 2000: Byrd 2, Brown 1) and has had one season with ERA+ under league average since 1999- when he’s been healthy, he’s been effective (admittedly he’s not a CYA candidate at his peak like Brown is). His recent history’s a lot less scary than Brown’s is- Byrd stayed healthy through a 200+ IP season and looked fine in the playoffs, whereas Brown plain can’t stay in a rotation at all.
And truth be told, it ain’t just health. I think character issues are overrated in baseball, but they aren’t completely irrelevant. I’m not convinced Kevin Brown would take well to being in a bullpen if we ended up with too many starters at some point, and you’d have to say that, after the first few weeks of April where you might want to put Felix in the bullpen to keep his IP down, Brown would be the likely candidate to be bumped from the rotation, absent Joel sucking or Moyer showing his age. This is another reason is why I would prefer a swing guy who’s more likely to be OK with that filling a “6th starter” role, rather than somebody who is a year away from being one of the highest-paid starting pitchers in baseball and probably still trying to prove their worthiness for the HOF (which is hard to do as a long reliever).
#76: What do you think of the M’s bringing in Erubiel Durazo instead of Jones, and shifting Ibanez to LF for the next year?
Jerry – earlier in the thread Dave laid out a rationale for favoring strong defense in left field. Ibañez playing LF regularly in Safeco is a significant defensive downgrade.
So something such as Durazo should be a fallback plan, and even then it should be about the fourth or fifth option.
For our purposes, Paul Byrd is seriously overrated because he’s pitched so well against the Mariners in the past. Fans, management, everybody thinks he’s better than he really is.
Honestly, I didn’t think about that when evaluating him as a potential FA. Didn’t cross my mind.
I like him better than guys like Washburn or Morris, anyway.
Regarding Moyer,
This offseason will really test his willingness to stay in Seattle.
I think that teams like the Yankees, Astros, and Red Sox might offer him big money: perhaps even 8-9 million on a one-year deal.
That is a big difference from the 3 million Dave estimates.
Given his comments earlier this year, I don’t see him signing for less than 6 million. 3 million would be over a 50% pay cut for a guy who wasn’t bad last year.
Perhaps this is how the M’s can recoup a few draft picks.
There are some other pitchers who could be cheap on the market. Brett Tomko and Pedro Astacio would both likely cost less than 2 million for one year, and would be fine stop-gaps until some player in the system becomes ready by the end of the season. Kyle Lohse could be nontendered as well.
Mussina got 6 years in 2000, the same year Hampton got his crazy 7 year deal and Neagle got his 5 year deal.
As far as I can remember, no pitcher has gotten a deal longer than 4 years since.
I’d say that’s a pretty obvious trend. A.J. Burnett is not going to be the guy to break the will of teams and extract the fifth year that they’ve been unwilling to give every free agent pitcher in the past 4 years.
Teams are trending towards more money, less years for pitchers. I think 4 years and a lot of money is the realistic expectation.
So something such as Durazo should be a fallback plan, and even then it should be about the fourth or fifth option.
I assume the same thing goes with picking up Delgado as well (though Morosi in the P-I suggests Sexson would go to LF, which would probably make us pine for Raul in about 5 minutes).
I’m not convinced Kevin Brown would take well to being in a bullpen if we ended up with too many starters
If we end up with too many starters (heaven forbid), you would move a bunch of other people to the bullpen before a healthy and effective Kevin Brown. The only reason to move Brown out of the rotation is because he’s hurt or he’s toast, in which case you don’t want him in your bullpen either.
A lot of this discussion is dominated by the assumption that defense in LF is crucial.
I think that defense is important, but a lot of stats-oriented people are overvaluing it right now. It is like OBP a few years back. It’s as if every few years a new ‘thing’ becomes real popular, and eventually gets overrated.
Getting value by targeting aspects of the game that are undervalued is great. However, paying Jones 5 million a year is not getting good value. It is paying a lot for defense in a non-premium position.
The fact is, defense isn’t undervalued anymore. Every team is going to be on the White Sox bandwagon, and guys like Jones will be a lot more sought-after than some people think. This is just speculation, but I don’t think you would underestimate the bandwagon effect that the White Sox WS victory will create.
Also, we are not talking about CF here. It is not at all comparable to the Cameron move. In that move, the M’s dramatically weakened the defense in CF while also hurting the team in LF. That was a huge difference. Not having an elite defensive player in LF is not going to kill the M’s. We are not talking about Manny Ramirez here. Ibanez isn’t awesome, but he isn’t that much below average.
Finally, this would be a one-year deal. If Ibanez can’t cut it, the M’s could stick Ibanez or Durazo at DH (whichever is hitting better) and trade the other. I think that Choo could be a legit option by mid-season. He may not be quite on the same level as Jones, but he is very fast, has a cannon arm, and would be way beter than average in LF defensively. Plus, he costs less than 1/10th what Jones will run and has a bit of untapped potential.
Some Comps for free agent pitcher contracts:
(aka its amazing what research does to inform opinions)
Bartolo Colon 4 yrs 51 million
Tim Hudson 4 yrs 47 million (not a free agent when signed)
Javy Vazquez 4 yrs 45 million (best comp in terms of player imo, but signed two years ago in deeper free agent market.)
Russ Ortiz 4 yrs 33 million
Darren Driefort 5 yrs 55 million (Market has shown a correction since his deal)
Derek Lowe 4 yrs 36 million
Brad Penny 3 yrs 30 million
Pedro Martinez 4 yrs 53 million
Chan ho Park 5 yrs 65 million (again, market correction)
Curt Schilling 4 yrs 50 million (this includes a vested option year)
Randy Johnson 4 yrs 53 million (crazy yankee deal)
Carl Pavano 4 yrs 40 million
So what conclusions does this lead to?
1st, dave is right that 5 year contracts for pitchers have not been handed out like they were 2-3 years ago. Also, considering those deals include Mike Hampton, Darren Dreifort, Chan Ho Park, and Kevin Brown, with only Mike Mussina really working out all right, it doesn’t seem like a wise course of action.
2nd, a precedent has been set for a pitcher of burnett’s caliber being in the range of 4 yrs 40 million(pavano) to 4 yrs 50 million (colon, hudson, pedro).
However, I think the market the previous two to three years provided a much higher supply than this year. Last year pedro, pavano, clement, wright, russ ortiz, derek lowe, and lieber were all on the market. This year’s class of burnett, millwood, morris, washburn, byrd and rogers seems significantly weaker to me. This is what worries me that the price of the top two could escalate considerably beyond the prices set over the last two years.
It’s my opinion that baseball GM’s remember the spectre of 5 year deals being considerable busts, but that AJ and Millwood both get big paydays do to the considerably depressed market.
You’re just making wild claims without any evidence, Jerry. Why should we believe a word you say about outfield defense? How do you know Jones’ value isn’t that significant? How do you know Ibanez isn’t that much below average? How do you know Choo would be “way better than average defensively”?
You’re just expecting us to take your word for it, when the counter arguments have significant data and research behind them. There’s no reason for us to take your word for it.
This goes back to my earlier post, and it’s not just directed at you. If you guys want us to take your opinions seriously, back them up. Show your work. Use evidence.
The prevailing comments around here lately have been that of opinion polls, which are boring to read and not very informative. I don’t mean to be rude, but why should we care if “CJ” or “Steve-O” or “TimBuckTwo” thinks Loaiza is a terrible pitcher? Okay, so, we know some random guy wasn’t convinced. Why? We have no idea.
Show your work, folks. Talk through your thought process. Explain why you think what you do. It’ll make everything way more interesting.
If we end up with too many starters (heaven forbid), you would move a bunch of other people to the bullpen before a healthy and effective Kevin Brown.
Who? Felix? Your premiere FA signee, Burnett? Your other signee, Loiaza? I think you’ll note I covered what I thought were the most likely options (Moyer and Piñeiro).
Let’s say Brown isn’t pitching badly, but he’s not pitching like he’s on pace for Cy Young hardware either (becase, well, he hasn’t since for a while now- he pitched OK in New York but not stellar), nobody else has bombed themselves out of the rotation, it’s April 20th, and you want to put Felix back in the rotation after holding him out to keep his IP down under 200 if you need him in September/October. Who gets voted off the island?
I understand the concept of a cheap option that gives you some flexibility and “pleasant surprise” value at the back of the rotation- we lucked into that before with Paul Abbott, who wasn’t a horrible option for a couple of years as a Mariner. I just think Kevin Brown’s a lousy candidate to do it at age 40. I could most certainly be wrong, and I’ll happily admit that Dave has a worthwhile and well-considered argument, if not one I agree with (it’s possible for two people in baseball to derive different conclusions from identical facts- we don’t know enough about outcomes to predict them with great accuracy).
But LF defense is more valuable to the M’s than it is to other teams because our park is hard on LF defenders.
Going after Delgado would be idiotic. We have exactly zero places to put him unless we trade Ibanez (or play Ibanez in LF, where he’d cost us many runs with his glove).
I’m totally wrong about Loaiza Dave? Who died and made you the talent eval czar? Have you seen his AL numbers other than 2003?
By the way, EC is the perfect example of what I’m talking about.
He and I have had several back and forths on Brown. I know where he stands, and I think he has a valid point, even if I don’t totally share his outlook.
If he had just come in and said “Kevin Brown? That guys sucks!”, well, we’d have learned nothing.
I don’t care if you guys agree with me. It’s more fun if you don’t. I do care that we have a community that actually promotes intelligent thought, though. Everyone would do well to follow EC’s lead. Agree, disagree, whatever, but make your point well. EC has made his. I disagree, and thats fine, but I at least understand where he’s coming from, and vice versa.
Don’t have the time to look into the numbers, but I’m interested in your thoughts on Jeff Weaver Dave. Do you think he could be had for around 8M per and do you think of him as a better pitcher than Loaiza? If so, would it be worth it to cut 2M elsewhere on the team to afford Weaver?
Finally, would you attempt to trade Eddie (if so, what type of return might you target?) in order to clear that 6.25 off the books. Seems to me that by trading Eddie you could upgrade from Loaiza to Weaver and have ~3M in buffer for either July or for FA who cost more than you project.
I have no interest in Weaver at all. I don’t consider going from Loaiza to Weaver an upgrade.
Fair enough, what about Eddie though? If you were in charge, what would you do with him going forward? Also, what’s your take on Johjima’s salary; does it count or come out of that “fund”?
Another interesting thing I noticed is that the Ms should have some payroll flexibility next season too, even if they max out their budget this year. Sexson’s will make 6M less in 07 than 06 (the bonus), Eddie’s off the books and so is Pineiro, not to mention whatever residue from Spiezio. Subtract away increased arb salaries for some players you still have some nice wiggle room to either backload contracts this offseason or leave room for next year.
I’m okay with hanging onto Eddie. As much as this is purely a hypothetical, I still wanted to stay within reason, and there’s almost no way Mike Hargrove would actually go to camp without a “closer”. The media stink and the circus surrounding the bullpen wouldn’t be worth it.
I love 1 year contracts. I think they’re a great thing for the organization. Having Eddie for 1 year at $6 million isn’t an albatross contract. It might be a little high, but the M’s need to be adding talent, not subtracting it. I’d keep Eddie unless I was blown away with an offer, which is very unlikely.
IMO, the Tigers owe us one for that Ramon Santiago for Carlos Guillen deal. Bloomquist for Carlos Pena, straight up. Money.
It might not be that easy. Regardless, I think Pena would be a good fit to wear the left-handed sock. Ibanez isn’t too bad in LF.
I’m all about the Kevin Brown signing. With a good defense behind him, he could be deadly. Of course, his long history of injuries could arise and we’re down 2 million. Oh well, we blew around that on Pokey. It’s worth a shot. Signings like that need to be made to turn this team around. Bavasi needs to show some creativity.
Dave,
Bummer. It was like you were trying so hard not to sound condascending, and then it just falls apart.
The crux of our difference of opinion is that you really really believe fully in defensive metrics. That is fine. You are entitled to your opinion.
In my opinion, defensive metrics are way way behind offensive stats, and all of them are suspect. This is a pretty widely held opinion. Despite the valiant efforts of the guys at BP, scouting is still WAY ahead of stats in evaluating defense. I am sure that you are going to accuse me of not understanding defensive stats. But I do. I have also read up on the stats that you used to make your argument for Jones, which was based almost entirely on stats that convert defensive stats into wins. The weakness of this is your assumption that defensive metrics work, and that they can be converted into wins in any realistic manner.
The reason why I say that Choo is an above average defensive LFer is because that is the popular opinion of the scouting community and people who actually go to games, watch him play, and form a first-hand opinion. With minor league players, especially outfielders, tools are much more important than metrics in evaluating defensive potential. The fact is, Choo has plus speed and a plus plus arm. He has had some trouble with taking bad routes, which is the only reason why he hasn’t stuck in CF. However, people who have seen him play a lot have said that he made a good transition to LF this year. He clearly has the tools to be an exceptional defensive LFer.
I am sure that you will discount this whole post as baseless speculation, and that I have no ‘evidence.’ However, you really need to think about the value of your ‘evidence’, which is sketchy at best.
Loaiza’s AL career (huge outlier 2003 not included):
Pitching in massive RFK his 3.77 ’05 ERA looks suspiciously like another 5+ ERA to which he’s become so well accustomed in the Junior Circuit:
1998 Texas 3-6, 5.90
1999 Texas 9-5, 4.56
2000 Tex/Tor 10-13, 4.56
2001 Toronto 11-11, 5.01
2002 Toronto 9-10, 5.71
2004 CWS/NYY 10-7, 5.70
I might be “totally wrong”, but I just wouldn’t ante up Loaiza money in our situation for the 34 year old Loaiza. Reasonable minds can differ though…
I think Dave is sceptical of defensive stats. He’ll usually only cite them to support his position if they all generally agree.
The problem with scouts is that they tend to overvalue specific types of things, and undervalue other things.
So while Choo has the tools to be an exceptional defensive LFer, we have no evidence that he IS an exceptional defensive LFer.
And he doesn’t hit nearly well enough, anyway.
Bummer. It was like you were trying so hard not to sound condascending, and then it just falls apart.
Give me points for effort, then. Hopefully, you can read this thread and realize why it might be frustrating for us to see the comments degenerate into what they have.
The crux of our difference of opinion is that you really really believe fully in defensive metrics. That is fine. You are entitled to your opinion.
No, I don’t. I think all of them have their issues. I stated that in the Jones post. However, I’m certain that we can ascertain a lot more about defense than you think we can. My point about Jones was that we should have a very strong confidence that he’s an elite defensive corner outfielder because of the agreement of widely different metrics. UZR, which uses proprietary play by play data, thinks he’s great. PMR, which is based on different data, agrees that he’s awesome. BP’s system loves him. Gassko’s system loves him. Chris Dial’s ZR system loves him. Scouts love him. And Minnesota’s team outfield defensive statistics have consistently been terrific during his time in their OF.
Seriously, find someone who says something bad about Jones defense. Anyone. It’s impossible to do. When so many things using different criteria come to the same conclusion, we can have a pretty strong level of confidence.
You’ll note that I don’t make the kinds of claims I did about Jones with many other players. I quickly dismissed the notion that Travis Lee was worth 25 runs with his glove last year, despite what BP and Gassko’s numbers say.
I’m not leaning solely on the numbers, like you claim. Jones really is a tremendous defensive outfielder, and there’s basically no way around that.
I’ve seen Choo play. I’ve been saying bad things about his defense for a few years. I talk to scouts who watch him play. They’ve been saying bad things about his defense for years. You simply are reading the wrong things or inventing claims. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that its column A.
If you want people to take your opinions seriously, you need to back up your work.
Senator Jerry, I know Shin-Soo Choo (well, at least I’ve seen him play a whole lot), and, Jerry, you’re no Shin-Soo Choo. No, actually, you are exactly right. He clearly has the tools to play any of the OF positions. Question is, will he master some of the nuances that you noted? I also tend to agree that defensive metrics are suspect at best. At the risk of not citing exact facts, I just seem to remember some pretty bizarre conclusions they have drawn about so-and-so being better than so-and-so (usually due to park, pitching staff makeup, etc.) and I also realize there are also metrics that even take these factors into account, but when even my Grandma can clearly see that Player A is a better glove man than Player B, and the “stats say” the opposite, clearly there is more room for conjecture IMHO than preaching it as the outright gospel…
I don’t care if you guys agree with me. It’s more fun if you don’t.
Umm… sometimes. I can recall heated back and forths about Huff and Nageotte that weren’t all that fun last summer. But overall I like Dave’s plan. If Jones can be had for $5 or $6 million/year, I like him over Huff. And Dave’s arguments for Kevin Brown are more convincing to me than ec’s.
To throw some analysis on the table… I like Loaiza because at $7 or $8 million per year I feel he’s a good value. His ERA last year was solid at 3.77, but his Defense Independent ERA was even better at 3.48. Compare this to Paul Byrd who had an ERA of 3.74 but a Defense Independent ERA of 4.10. Yes, yes, the usual League Effects arguments come in to play here, but Loaiza is no stranger to pitching to lineups laden with a DH.
Yeah, Dave it would be better if people used an open-minded spirit of inquiry to investigate questions (:what is the best way to improve the Mariners in 2006?”), instead of one where we’re all lawyers (“I have an argument and ideological axe to grind as to why I think this is best way to improve the Mariners, and I’ll defend it to the death!”).
There’s an awful lot about baseball that lies in gray areas where reasonable people differ for perfectly valid reasons, even if sabremetrics has helped us define some more places as being black and white than there were some years ago.
it helps to STATE the reasons though, to back them up with evidence, and a willingness to change your mind when presented with evidence (like, say, about Raul Ibañez as a hitter) never hurts either. It’s the difference between arguing past each other on an Internet message board and actually learning something.
From ESPN on Jacque Jones’ defense:
Arm Accuracy
Rating: AVERAGE – MINUS
Notes: Comes And Goes
Arm Strength
Rating: AVERAGE
Notes: N/A
Range
Rating: AVERAGE
Notes: Having Hunter Next To Him Helps
“Plays Hard And Hustles. Makes Silly Mistakes At Times. Average Player Overall”
That’s not the most glowing review. STATS Inc Scouting Notebook says he’s one of the best range-wise corner OF, but that he has trouble with his release point on throws – flying to the backstop, rolling to the cutoff man. His arm isn’t good enough to play RF anywhere but the Metrodome.
According to ESPN, Raul has the better arm and range:
Arm Accuracy
Rating: AVERAGE – PLUS
Notes: Hits The Cutoff Man
Arm Strength
Rating: AVERAGE
Notes: N/A
Range
Rating: AVERAGE – PLUS
Notes: Gets Consistent Jumps
To add to the thoughts on Jacque Jones’ defense…
He was originally called up to the majors as a centerfielder, and had it not been for Torii Hunter, he would likely have been the starting centerfielder for most of his tenure in Minnesota. His range and arm strength are both assets. Qualitatively, it seems like his throwing accuracy is a bit erratic, but moving him from RF to LF should make that somewhat less important since most throws are shorter or the same distance in LF. But I suppose these opinions just add me to the large group of people Dave points to that all agree on Jones’ defense.
My only suggestion with regards to Jones would be to include an increase in Hargrove’s antacid budget for the season. Jones had just as many P/PA as Ichiro last season, but with twice as many strikeouts. He really can drive you crazy.
I like Loaiza because at $7 or $8 million per year I feel he’s a good value. His ERA last year was solid at 3.77, but his Defense Independent ERA was even better at 3.48. Compare this to Paul Byrd who had an ERA of 3.74 but a Defense Independent ERA of 4.10.
And if you look at 2 year performance…
(Note that Byrd’s lifetime ERA+ adjusted for park and league beats Loaiza’s. I don’t know what their lifetime Defense Independent ERAs would be, though- but I would THINK lifetime ERA tends to reflect DIP ERA unless you play on great defensive teams every year.)
I’m always reluctant to evaluate at one year for pitchers if you can use bigger sample sizes.
Just to be clear, I don’t think Byrd is clearly preferable to Loaiza. I might well choose Loaiza over Byrd. Who I’d sign depends on lots of things- contract details and so on. I do think their value is close enough that it’s in the gray area of “reasonable people differ” (you might be able to get Byrd at a skosh of a discount in terms of years and dollars, for one).
Dave,
As for the free agent signings, those all seem like pretty reasonable contracts to offer. But….say that your evil twin is GM’ing for another franchise and offers all those guys similar contracts but with just slightly more money. Which of the acquisitions would you go the extra mile for, and how much more money would be too much?
I think the whole auction aspect of the free agent market is the trickiest part of the equation, but I agree that the trade market is pretty ambiguous, especially with so few deals at the deadline to set the market.
“Loaiza is no stranger to pitching to lineups laden with a DH.”
He’s no stranger to it, but he’s also never done it well (2003 excepted) as previously noted. I don’t want to let my Loaiza/Brown dissent and differences on the Moyer numbers and specifics supercede the fact that it’s a solid plan, although far more solid on the offensive and defensive side. I think the dual quandry we are all presented with in trying to strategic plan for this organziation is that the FA crop this year is so comically thin, we all tend to grasp at straws and try to patchwork-quilt a short-term solution where a long-term solution is really what is needed. Trade ideas are usually irrational and always nebulous. Are there cases to be made on both sides of all the issues here – both individual talent-wise and overall strategy? Certainly, but my baseball spider sense tells me there are far more middle-aged FA pitching busts a la Eric Milton et al than any bargains to be had for a rebuilding team and that the 2006 M’s are on-track for another sub-.500 even with Dave’s plan. One man’s opinion.
We all want the same thing. We want to win and we are passionate about our love for baseball and especially the Mariners. We want to make things better, right away. Sometimes that’s not possible. As we all know, it’s called rebuilding. Should a high revenue team like the M’s ever have to rebuild? No, but that’s a story that’s already been told ad nauseam…
ec on Loaiza…
And if you look at 2 year performance…
You might as well stretch the analysis to 3 years on Loaiza. That way you get his excellent 2003 stats. But seriously, although his 2004 ERA was 5.70, his Defense Independent ERA was lower at 5.16. Plus, he switched teams in the middle of 2004 and the Yankees seemed to have jerked him around some. There are question marks concerning Loaiza, but there are only question marks associated with any pitcher who will make $6 million next year. There isn’t a sure thing 6 million dollar man on the market.
And speaking of 6 million dollar men… despite a 5.62 ERA, Joel Pineiro had a 4.52 Defense Independent ERA which might be an indicator of a rebound year in 2006, to some extent.
One thing that I hadn’t considered much was that Brian Giles can play center field, which would leave the club with the option of obtaining a LF stick. Dave, I know you’re in favor of sticking Jeremy Reed back out there in CF next year, but do you think that Giles’ defense would be good enough to play CF in Safeco?
Loaiza is a joke. His tenure with Washington is the first time in 10 years that he wil have played for a team and not completely worn out his welcome within a year and a half. That’s assuming he doesn’t re-sign with them. He’s maddenenly inconsistent.
The Rangers hoped he could build on a promising 1999 season. Nope. Then the Jays thought they had something great in the second half of 2000. He lost it in 2001 and fell apart even more in 2002. The White Sox found a gem in 2003. His collapse was brutal in ’04. The Nats got the Good Loaiza in 2005. Its probably a good bet that Bad Loaiza is just lying in wait.
His ups and downs have produced a career 4.70 ERA. Oddly enough, that’s the exact same career ERA as our own maddeningly inconsistent SP, Gil Meche. Meche will be cheaper and I actually think he’s got a higher upside than Loaiza.
Oh hells yeah…
This one’s for you #66:
Safeco Field is CLEARLY a tougher park to hit in than the Metrodome. The point is that he’ll post even WORSE numbers playing half his games in Safeco than he would playing half his games indoors. You know what, you are rightI take it all back. I just shudder at the though of Jones’ bat in the Mariners’ lineup. PERIOD.
Yeah, the Metrodome has been such a friendly place to Jacque that he hit .270/.326/.420 at home and .267/.318/.465 on the road from 2002-2004. Last year, he kept that trend up with .242/.320/.402 at home and .255/.318/.475 on the road. It’s not clear at all that Jones’ numbers would suffer all that much more at Safeco than they did at the Metrodome.
It’s 327 feet to the right field foul pole in Safeco. It’s 327 feet to the right field foul pole in the Metrodome. Safeco doesn’t have a 20 foot wall in right field. It’s not that clear that Jones would suffer so much going from Minnesota to Seattle.
Ibanez is perfectly capable of playing the field– in fact he is a *good* defensive leftfielder well above average(as reflected by his zone ratings, and good ol’ visual analysis), playing him at DH is a waste. I would rather bring in Durazo or Frank Thomas before I’d let Jacque Jones within 50 miles of the Puget Sound area.
Slim…
Loaiza’s ups and downs have produced a career 4.70 ERA. Oddly enough, that’s the exact same career ERA as our own maddeningly inconsistent SP, Gil Meche. Meche will be cheaper and I actually think he’s got a higher upside than Loaiza.
Meche’s ERA in column 1, Loaiza’s column 2…
3.35 2.21 2003 Pre-All Star Game
6.08 3.84 2003 Post-All Star Game
7.06 4.77 2004 Pre-All Star Game
3.95 7.51 2004 Post-All Star Game
4.94 3.57 2005 Pre-All Star Game
5.44 3.99 2005 Post-All Star Game
With the exception of his brief tenure on the Yankees resulting from a trade that he had no say in, Loaiza has beaten Meche in unadjusted ERA in every half season over the last 3 years.
Plus, Meche put up his “high upside” stats in a pitcher’s park with more or less good defense behind him.
I think I’ll take Dave’s (Loaiza included) version of the 2006 Mariners over Slim’s (Meche included) version.
Good god, I skipped past most of the previous comments. Shame on a lot of you; did we really need to bring the “scouting vs. stats” debate into YET ANOTHER THREAD?
I like this plan on a casual reading. A couple of questions if you can answer them though:
1) Do we have a realistic chance of getting Burnett? I read a rumor about his family strongly preferring the east coast, anything to that? Will the M’s pony up enough dough to overcome the things working against them?
2) Does Esteban Loaiza have enough upside still at 34 to be a long-term solution in the middle of the rotation, or is he a couple-year stopgap at best?
No, and no.
Remember, a big reason for Burnett’s blow up was lack of run suppost. And, dare I say it, the Marlins were the ’36 Yankees compared to us…
Doesn’t AJ Burnett want to stay on the East Coast? Somebody posted a link earlier saying that his wife is a “piece of work,” is from Baltimore, doesn’t like to fly, and will push for staying close to home.
Certainly, but my baseball spider sense tells me there are far more middle-aged FA pitching busts a la Eric Milton et al than any bargains to be had for a rebuilding team and that the 2006 M’s are on-track for another sub-.500 even with Dave’s plan. One man’s opinion.
Consider that we get a FULL YEAR of Felix in the rotation this year. Consider that it’s highly improbable we’re going to have a .550 OPS from our catchers in 2006 (especially if one of those catchers is Johjima- his stats are pretty damned good). Consider that half the lineup that ISN’T catching is still under their peak ages (3B, 2B, SS, CF), and nobody else is a real risk to crater. Consider that the M’s have underperformed their W-L expectations based on runs scored/runs allowed two years running, and teams that generally do this “bounce back” If the M’s HAD performed to their win-loss numbers, they’d be a 76-86 team last year- so you can make the argument that they are really an unlucky 76-86 team. The 1999 team projects out to 77-85 using those numbers by the way- should they have thrown it in the tank for 2000 after trading Griffey?
Oh good lord, no. I’d never consciously assemble a 2006 team with Meche or Loaiza. Yikes. Don’t ever think I’d suggest keeping Meche as a viable rotation alternative.
The only reason we’d sign Loaiza is if Bavasi realizes that he can’t land Burnett or Millwood and that he’s as good as fired since the roatation is domed and decides to spitefully give his successor and even bigger challenge by having a $6 million albatross floating around.
Good points Rusty, but your analysis is flawed in that Meche will be far cheaper than Loaiza. Even Dave’s choice in last year’s plan of Matt Clement as a proposed #1 starter came from a stronger 2005 FA crop. I just don’t think that it’s a good place to dip this year. It’s the proverbial bottomless pit of black gooey slime where you think you’re just putting a toe in (contrary to what somebody said previously, all average SP’s [don't skewer me, but something to that effect since I can't find it] don’t necessarily need to run you $6M per) and you then sink into an unalterable and inalienable arrangement with highly suspect performance potential. They are THE type of guys to avoid IMHO. Signing a guy like Loaiza to a $20M+ pact just seems to be a poor choice, especially in context of where we are as an organization. This is the worst crop of FA’s ever, ever, ever. When your prized FA SP is a fellow with a sub-.500 career mark and character issues that’ll clearly get five years and $10M+ per, that should tell you something right off the bat. IMHO, steer hella-clear unless your name is Japanese or Giles…
In my opinion, so many things go into a pitcher’s won-loss record that are beyond his control that I can’t imagine how anyone can still use it as a metric of a pitcher’s performance.
From what I’ve seen, Burnett’s peripheral (read: meaningful stats that he has direct control over) stats are pretty good. It’s silly to discount him because he’s got less “wins” than you’d like.
Is he the best FA pitcher ever to come on the market? Naw. Will he be overpaid in the context of this market? Most likely.
But if you’re going to attack him as a bad signing, do it using numbers that make sense. Oh, and don’t use “hella”. (pet peeve of mine)
Giles will likely end up in St. Louis (and I will likely do a car-wheel). I think his current location of San Diego is the closest he ever gets to the great northwest. It does not make sense foe either party unless the Mariners sign 3 starting pitchers in addition to him…
supposed to be cart wheel.
I think Burnett is a fine pitcher, but he has yet to assemble back 2 back 200 IP seasons, and he will be going on 30 in the not so distant future.
I don’t believe the contention is that Jacque Jones is a poor outfielder defensively.
Rather that quantifying how many runs Jacque Jones is worth is the difficulty using defense statistics. While UZR, PMR, and Gassko’s range metric all agree that Jones is a good outfielder, they disagree on HOW MANY runs Jacque is worth. The ability to quantify how many runs is difficult in the first place, and without PBP data (which Gassko lacks), it’s that much harder. Even UZR isn’t without its skepticism. Geoff Jenkins worth 28 RAA? Really?
I think that we might be slightly overrating the value of defense in LF at Safeco. By most metrics, Ibanez is, at best, slightly better than average in LF. That’s not so bad – at least we aren’t losing runs there. Given that Safeco makes it easier to haul in flyballs, and also that the Starting Five in ’06 will probably be more groundball oriented (hypothetically, Burnett and Felix on the heavy GB side, Pineiro and possibly others on the slight GB side, the remainding neutral), perhaps less of an emphasis on LF defense might be wiser.
For example, Erubiel Durazo was worth 21 Win Shares in 2004 through his batting alone. Jacque Jones was worth 14 Win Shares in 2004 through both his hitting and fielding. It would be imprudent to assume Durazo would produce the same numbers in 2006 as he did in 2004, but if he can produce along the same lines, he should be worth more than Jones. Even if Durazo is worth, say only 14 or 15 Win Shares with his bat, that still equals Jacque Jones’ bat and glove combined. Assuming Ibanez performs at an average in LF, we don’t lose many runs there. And of interesting note, Jones’ fielding appears to be consistent WS wise (4.1 WS in 2005, 4.7 WS in 2004).
Even if I give Jacque Jones the benefit of the doubt and credit him with more value in LF, Erubiel Durazo is likely cheaper than Jacque Jones this offseason. I won’t dare to get into the complexities of defensive metrics, but I’d be skeptical to think that even Jacque Jones is worth 30+ runs out in left field.
If I thought Bavasi could keep his job and stand pat, bypassing the entire free agent crop this year, then yeah, by all means, let’s bypass away and plan for 2007. But the bottom line, folks, is that Bavasi will be given a budget and he will spend most or all of it in order to have a prayer of keeping his job past next September.
What Dave and others here are putting out is a plan to spend the budget Bavasi will be given without crippling the team in future years when maybe, just maybe, the free agent crop will be better.
Dave,
Can we play what-if, and ask about some scenarios?
(1) Burnett falls through. Who do you chase in the free agent market then? (Well, Millwood, obviously, but if Burnett falls through, is Millwood likely?) Where else can the Mariners find undervalued starters, or are we looking at a patchwork rotation?
I’m sympathetic to the points on the dearth of talent in this free agent market. However, the Mariners still have to put five starters out there. (Well, four, if they had some guts. That’s another argument entirely.) If they can’t get either Millwood or Burnett, then what do they do? Are we looking at a patchwork rotation?
(2) Miracles happen. Matsuzaka becomes available. What’s the likely pricetag? (And let’s assume the posting fee comes out of the funky part of the Mariner budget.) Is the team likely to be able to afford more or less? (I imagine a scenario with a $10M posting fee, and a three year $15M deal for Matsuzaka. Am I blowing smoke out my ass? I’d tend to believe that the existence of the posting fee would tend to depress contract values.)
(3) Okay, so the M’s manage to get Giles at 3/30. That provides lefty sock and good outfield defense. However, it puts an extra $5M strain on your budget. Where do you bend the offseason plan to try and make the budget fit?
(4) Jojima isn’t available, or not at that price. So, do we stick with the replacement-level talent behind the plate?
This particular post is always one of the highlights of the offseason. Thanks, Dave. (And everyone else who’s got good points. This is fun.)
Oh, I’ll use hella all I want. Actually it’s the first time I ever used it in print, sometimes verbally, and I regret it already. ec, those are ALL very excellent points. I admire both your baseball knowledge and especially your optimism. It is not much different from all of the conjecture during the past offseason though. If this, then this, then that, and voila! M’s can contend in a weak AL West. Angels are overrated. A’s will collapse. Hell, I was officially on record with an 82-80 prediction. I thought Ichiro might challenge Teddy Ballgame. This was all after the huge Beltre and Sexson signings.
Not sure I buy the “peak ages” thing. Beltre will be at peak age, and Lopez, Betancourt and Reed are all still so very raw, admittedly with another year under their collective belts but on the far-left of the bell curve. I hope to God we can find a platoon partner for poor Jeremy and his sadsack .543 OPS vs. LHP if that problem persists though. It showed no signs of abating this year.
My favorite part of Dave’s plan is perhaps the most obscure one, T.J. Bohn. He’s got a gun, not as much range, but it seems like he torched lefties in the system last year, although that’s only anecdotal because I don’t have time to really check at the moment.
Your “bounce back” argument is great, but I’ve always attributed these things more to managerial prowess and aplomb (or lack thereof) and I’ve never been a Grover fan. In fact I was crushed when Rohn wasn’t even entertained as a replacement given the young makeup of the team. The day we lost Sweet Lou was the day this organization lost it’s soul. Re: 1999, I don’t think any team should throw it in the tank (not what I was suggesting, but rather a gradual rebuilding with smaller moves or a big splash IF justifiable) when they have five-six guys in the starting lineup with an OPS+ potential of 100 or more. Unfortunately, I don’t see that here. $70M for two servicable pitchers with myriad question marks doesn’t float my boat. The Winn trade also weakened the offense, as sad as that seems. If Beltre can defy his outlier season and we sign Giles (hoping for the west coast bias) and/or Joji at a reasonable rate, then, perhaps, we’re talking – as long as that pitching “thing” holds together. Will be interesting to see what Moyer does by Thursday. I’d think his prime incentive is to file, and I think he’d scoff at $3M, even as a base salary, but that’s only based on a personal take on his mentality. Personally, the best I can wish for him is that the door doesn’t hit him in the ass, despite being the second-best pitcher in M’s history.
I guess I’ve just also lost a lot of faith in the ownership portion of this regime to do the right thing for baseball rather than the right fiscal thing. I see their impetus more to placate than to build a dynasty. Hopefully that’s just my natural depressive tendencies taking over on me again and Felix will carry us to a far more promising future. Signing Jojima would be a step in the right direction if the price tag isn’t too exhorbitant. Unfortunately, the NY media is going apeshit over his chances of signing with the Mets, so that’s not ever a good thing, and his defense is every bit the equal of his offense. I think we’ll all be surprised how expensive he ends up being, regardless of where he lands. I have to run and spare you all any more drivel so I can arrive on time at my MNF destination safe and properly pre-func’d…
Now I’m ready for some football! Let the Curse of Peyton continue!!! Will that get deleted?
Sorry, the “hella” thing is just a pet peeve of mine. Wasn’t attempting to play mini-mod or anything. It just is a nails-down-a-chalkboard thing for me personally.
robbbbbbbbbb, in the Burnett vs. Millwood thread that Burnett’s name above leads you to, pursuing BOTH pitchers is advocated. I’m not sure what the best move is if both of those fall through, though. We may want to see what comes of the thread Dave has promised to do in regards to what he thinks the Mariners /will/ do.
As far as the M’s ownership goes; it’s easy to be cynical, of course. On the other hand, I think owners like Steinbrenner (it’s easy to pick on him because he’s an extreme) who feel that anything short of a championship each season is an utter failure and heads must roll, are equally bad for baseball, especially when they have Steinbrenner’s wallet.
The M’s are actually in an ideal situation, I think; they have a fanbase that has demonstrated that they’ll keep attendance relatively stable even if the team isn’t that good. That gives ownership the confidence in their revenue stream that allows them to build for the long-term rather than having to tear the team down and spend 100 million a year every year to keep butts in the seats.
Whether that’s what the team is doing, or whether they’re simply trying to keep a .500 team out there as cheaply as possible, I leave as an exercise for the reader.
Dave,
Just to follow up on your plea for research to back up our statements I refer to your statement in #96. You said “I have no interest in Weaver at all. I don’t consider going from Loaiza to Weaver an upgrade.”
Where are your facts to back up that statement?
As I look at the research the first thing I like better about Weaver is he’s nearly 5 years younger. His BAA is much better over the last two years….so is his WHIP.
I don’t see any reason to like Loaiza over Weaver. Jeff won 14 games on a lousy Dodgers team last year. He’s pitched over 220 innings the last two years. Give me some better reasons to like Loaiza Dave. Saying you don’t have interest isn’t reason enough.
I think Betancourt is making over about a million next season as he signed a 3 yer $2.4 mil contract ?
I believe Loiaza resigned with his team from last season?
Good work. I still prefer Giles. Giles .413 OBP–Jones OBP.327. Jones is better in the field but Giles is good too. Giles has a lot of power especially hitting the doubles. Doubles score runs too.
Giles has been a solid healthy player throughout his career. Giles is averaging more than 500 AB’s per year since 1999.
Sign Giles, Joji, Loaiza, Brown and (my pick) Tony Armas. Hope to god a starter has a resurrection, play good D, hit the crap out of the ball and look for a starter in trade.
Loaiza is a free agent. He declined his portion of a mutual option.
Betancourt is due to make just above the minimum wage. His contract paid him a $1.4 million signing bonus last year. He makes basically minimum wage until he becomes arbitration eligible.
Just to follow up on your plea for research to back up our statements I refer to your statement in #96. You said “I have no interest in Weaver at all. I don’t consider going from Loaiza to Weaver an upgrade.â€Â
Where are your facts to back up that statement?
I was asked a question and answered in the time that I had alotted. There’s a big difference between supplying research and evidence to support a claim and attempting to answer every question I’m asked on the blog.
As for your question, Loaiza’s numbers are superior across the board. You’re just looking at the wrong ones. Loaiza’s walkrate is significantly better than Weaver’s, and as a groundball pitcher, he’s significantly better at preventing home runs. Weaver’s control is slightly better, but it’s way more than offset by Loaiza’s advantages in strikeout rate and home run rate.
Or, more succinctly:
Weaver, 2005 Fielding Independant ERA: 4.45
Loaiza, 2005 Fielding Independant ERA: 3.32
I asked Dave what his opinion was, not for an analysis of Weaver against Loaiza, there was no need for him to provide factual data to back up his opinion.
I’m looking forward to these next several months of off-season action than the majority of games (pre-Felix) last year.
God, I love the off season.
Sign Giles, Joji, Loaiza, Brown and (my pick) Tony Armas.
That works for me, too.
I asked Dave what his opinion was, not for an analysis of Weaver against Loaiza, there was no need for him to provide factual data to back up his opinion.
This was the most inadvertantly funny comment I’ve read here in a while (and I understood what you originally meant…..)
Speaking of Matt Clement, Sean McAdam, the Red Sox beat writer from the Providence Journal, was on XM the other day (great hot stove coverage!) and said Boston might be looking to deal Clement to make room for some of the younger pitching they have coming up. For the money (about $8 mil a year w/ 2 years left) I’d take Clement over anybody else out there this winter (Burnett, Milwood, Morris, Loaiza, Weaver, etc.).
Even if they get Clement or a Burnett/Millwood type FA, I’d try and get David Wells as a solid #3 who would also be some great leverage in the Jamie Moyer negotiations. He’s left-handed and is Jamie’s age. Wells has asked for a trade. He won 15 games last year at age 42 pitching half his games at Fenway (with a lower ERA than Clement) and was paid just half of the $8 million the M’s paid Moyer…he’s injury prone but not on the same level as a Kevin Brown has been… given his age it’s not like the Red Sox are going to expect a lot in return, probably a low level prospect just to get rid of the headache…
Until the Red Sox have a GM, and that might be a while, I wouldn’t be assuming that anyone from their roster is available.
Dave and Southpaw,
You’ve both made my point. Sometimes we all have opinions where we don’t take the time to back it up with research…other times we want to back up our opinions with research.
Seems like both should be okay, rather than just picking on some people who provide research and others who just provide opinion.
Now back to Loaiza and Weaver..
Weaver is just beginning to show he can become a winner. Loaiza has shown us what he is. Inconsistent. That’s my opinion.
145
For the most part, Dave has a track record of making well thought out, well reasoned posts. He’s earned the right to give a quick answer to a quick question.
One of my biggest pet peeves about reading BP’s stuff is I get bored to death in the 10,000 words of methodology that they publish in every post. Unless they published something that produced results that just didn’t jive (something like “Jeff Cirillo was the best 3B in baseball”) then I might question their methodology, but they have built a reputation as extremely intelligent people who can offer knowledge of baseball.
However, I or some other random poster has not earned that right. If I’m going to give an opinion, I’ll do my best to back it up. I think that’s a fair request and it will keep this comment board from disintegrating into a fanboy blog.
If I’m in a hurry, I’ll skip through and just read the author comments in the blog because there’s starting to be a worse signal to noise ratio. I’m sure I’m not the only one.
Dave,
One more thing on Loaiza vs Weaver.
Doesn’t it just come down to old method of just looking at stats that back up your argument which by the way I’m enjoying.
However, I don’t buy your research that Loaiza’s walk rate is significantly better.
2005
Loaiza 55 walks in 217 IP
Weaver 43 walks in 224 IP
Thanks for the responses.
No, Ronc52, it comes down to deciding what evidence is important and letting that determine your argument — something of which Dave, Derek et al. do a very good job, which cannot be said of everyone who posts here.
146
If I came across as disrespecting Dave’s idea, then I apologize.
I too want to read well thought out comments backed by research which is why I enjoy reading this blog. I agreed with Dave’s plea to avoid posts that share nothing more than “this guy is good and this guy is bad” without backing it up.
I just wanted him to state why he liked Loaiza over Weaver.
The one bad thing about blogs is, you can’t really tell the tone behind what is written.
149
I’m sure you weren’t trying to be mean-spirited. If you read Dave’s (and every other authors work here) as a whole, you’ll see plenty of evidence backing their thoughts in their posts
Instead of coming across as calling Dave a hypocrite, it probably would have been more appropriate to ask a question as to “Why do you think Loaiza better than Weaver?”
And today’s Times/P-I have stories saying that Moyer filed for free agency yesterday (Monday), and that Jojima is looking for a contract in the 3 years for 18 mill price range.
If true, then the salary projection for your lineup just went up by, I’d guess, around 6-7 million dollars (+2.5 for Jojima, +3 probably more for Jamie, given past success and thin free agent market).
Here’s a dumb qestion,….if defensive metrics can easily predict wins, why didnt Seattle win 90 games last year?
I know this sounds sarcastic in black and white, but im mostly playing devil’s advocate. Id enjoy and learn from the discussion….
Whatever happens during the free agent signing period, here’s hoping that the Yankee scumballs make many, many more stupid signings like Jarret Wright and Tony Womack last year.
Jamie’s contract value does not necessarilly go up because he filed for FA. It just gives the Ms more time to work out a deal in the lower price range since if he didn’t file for FA, they had to come to terms on an extension by the 15th or he’d be locked into getting 6.4M at a minimum from the Ms.
JoJo, I’m not following your logic at all here. The Ms defense wasn’t all that great last year and no matter how good it is, there’s no way it overcomes the lack of pitching talent to turn that team into a 90 win one. Defense is part of the game same as pitching, hitting, and baserunning. Defensive metrics try to quantify just how much defense influences the game same as stats like VORP and RAR do. The whole basis of the wins system is based off the pyth record theory, which is pretty established in baseball circles. It’s found that, on average, adding ten runs to a team’s differential affects their pyth WL record by 1. So, the goal is to have stats that convert player actions into runs, which then in turn can be turned into wins. Off the four categories, fielding is likely the most off from reality because of the very nature of what you are trying to quantify. However, what we do have is not bad and is a lot better than just ignoring defense all together or, worse, trying to use your eyes or phantom “scouts” to judge someone’s defense. Sorry if I misunderstood your question.
IIRC, Moyer reportedly turned down trades to the Yankees, Braves, and Astros (all playoff teams) last year because they would have moved him out of town, even if only for 2.5 months. While for most players it comes down to just money, I can’t see him signing with anyone other than the Mariners. If the M’s don’t offer enough, he’ll retire.
Remember the plan is 2006 contracts. Even if Jojima gets 3/18 it’s unlikely to be 6 each year. It could well be 4 – 6 – 8 (option), which would be slighly above Dave’s 2006 figure. Even 5-6-7 only adds 1.5M. And just because he wants it, doesn’t mean he’ll get it.
#144– having already tried Closer-by-committee, apparently the Sox are now trying GM-by-committee at the winter meetings, with interviews scheduled for a GM during the meetings…
The whole basis of the wins system is based off the pyth record theory, which is pretty established in baseball circles. It’s found that, on average, adding ten runs to a team’s differential affects their pyth WL record by 1.
The map is not the territory.
That’s a very good looking team, IMHO, well thought out and well-constructed for offense and defense. Seems within realm of tactical possibilities. I hope the FO is on the same page.
I am, however, rooting HARD that Kevin Brown retires before anybody on Edgar Martinez Way is tempted to bring his toilet-bashing, wall-punching, private jet-chartering redneck ass to the Northwest for his annual 50 IP’s. Give the $2M to Jamie’s charity and call it a day. But I quibble.
Jojima is looking for a contract in the 3 years for 18 mill price range.
For a catcher, when no player at that position has come over from Japan before? With a potentially serious language barrier in communicating with his pitchers? Coming off an injury, at a position where injuries and early career declines are a common problem? Alan Nero sure dreams big.
Even Hideki Matsui (aka Godzilla) only got 3 years, $21M when he came over, and that from the Yankees’ bottomless moneypit. I’d offer JÃ…Âjima the contract Dave proposes, nothing more.
I don’t see an issue with giving Jojima a contract potentially worth $18 million over 3 years. If you did something that had $3.5 and $4.5 million base salaries in the first two years, with around $1.5 million in incentives; then had a $6 million base salary team option or a $4 million player option in the third year; you’d have a contract worth potentially $17.5 million over 3 years. Worst case scenerio he bombs and you’re only stuck with $12 million over 3 years, which would be bad but not awful.
and FWIW, he turned down three-year, $22 million from his home team to declare….
I’m not sure how you add those numbers up to make $17.5 million over 3 years. And that’s only a three-year contract when the agent is marketing his accomplishments to other potential clients. In normal terms, that’s a two-year contract with an option, and even then it’s more than I’d give considering that Clement is working his way up the pipe.
Oh, and the money JÃ…Âjima was offered in Japan isn’t terribly relevant. He can make more money in Japan than in the US, that’s just the way things are. The same is true for a lot of marginal American players. But if he really wants to play in the major leagues, then he has to do it for less money, and Japan isn’t an option.
I am writing to warn Mariner fans of the millstone that is Wes Helms. As a Brewer fan, I have watched Wes play, such as it is, for several seasons.
Wes can hit left-handed pitcher but is overwhelmed by righties.
OPS vs. Lefties–.915
OPS vs. Righties–.703 (762 ABs)
He doesn’t walk. (.320 career OBP)
He is a double play waiting to happen at the plate. He’s grounded into 27 DP’s over the last 3 years in limited time (1030 plate appearances)
And now let’s talk about the fielding. Ay carumba!
My favorite summary of Wes is that in 2004 he made 6 more errors than Scott Rolen in less than half the innings played at third base. Helms made 16 errors to Scott’s 10 while Wes was at third base for less than 600 innings.
Fluke? Anomaly? Ummm, no. I nicknamed Wes “The Manatee” because of his performance at third base for the Crew. He personified inept.
First base? Not much better. Wes had 114 innings there last year spotting Overbay and while only charged with 1 error should have been tabbed for four more. And in EACH case he either cost the Crew the game or put them in position to LOSE the game.
To Helms credit after his disasterous 2004 season he did show up to camp in outstanding shape and was excellent in a pinch-hitting role. But I attribute that output to a man determined to save his rep and a fair amount of luck. I seriously doubt he will be able to re-create the “magic” in the future.
If you want to throw 2 million at Wes Helms that is certainly your choice. But do so at the risk of your good nature and mental health.
By the way, Helms isn’t interested in a part-time role. He really believes he’s a regular. So you have that mountain to climb as well.
Good Luck!
Wes can hit left-handed pitcher but is overwhelmed by righties.
Which, considering the roster listed above, is exactly what the M’s need.
My favorite summary of Wes is that in 2004 he made 6 more errors than Scott Rolen in less than half the innings played at third base. Helms made 16 errors to Scott’s 10 while Wes was at third base for less than 600 innings.
Scott Rolen is the best defensive third baseman in the game. His rate statistics this year were as good as anyone in the history of baseball. He’s up there with Brooks Robinson as the best defensive 3B of all time. Being inferior to Scott Rolen isn’t a big deal.
Dave:
Don’t ever say I didn’t try and help.
Helms is Benny Ayala. He can hit lefties who don’t have a good fastball. That and he’s Dr. Ironglove.
Based on your response you seem confident the M’s can minimize the damage Wes can inflict while wearing a glove. Brewer fans came to hold their breath when he would take the field. It was almost uncanny how in key situations the ball would find him and result in another misplay.
Good luck!
Regarding Weaver v. Loaiza, I think the issue is far from settled. Yes, Loaiza’s home run rate (and FIP) was better in 2005, but the question is what’s likely to happen in 2006. Weaver’s career HR/9 is actually better than Loaiza’s (1.09 v. 1.02), his career K/9 is basically the same (a slight, though insignificant edge to Weaver), and he’s got the slight edge in BB/9. Loaiza’s got a slight edge in career GB/FB, but both guys are GB pitchers (Weaver’s career split is 1.18). This isn’t Derek Lowe v. Ryan Franklin.
The difference of opinion here boils down to how much weight we give to each pitcher’s 2005 season. Clearly, Loiaza fared much better last year, in large part due to a freakishly large increase in Weaver’s HR/9. For a guy with a career rate of close to 1 (probably under 1 if you throw out this year) to see a rate like that go up 50% in one year in his 20s… well I think it’s an aberration, and some serious regression to the mean is in order. It’s like AJ Burnett’s incredible GB/FB this season – it’s totally out of line with what he’s done in the past, and it really drives people’s assessments/predictions of him. As GB drives FIP, Burnett looks untouchable in that metric – but that doesn’t really answer the question: is the one-year spike in GB/FB ratio luck or is he a fundamentally different pitcher all of the sudden?
Most importantly, Loaiza’s value is rather high at this point. His solid season with a sub-4 ERA will push his value higher. Weaver may be undervalued by the market as he’s coming off a bad season, and his skill set should play well in Safeco (large outfield, solid control). If that’s wrong, sure, stay away – he does have Boras as his agent. But if Weaver wants to work the Millwood plan and sign a short term deal on the cheap, hoping that the HR and SLG against factors that killed him last year were one-year blips, and then sign a huge deal in a couple of years… I think the M’s should jump at that. Loaiza’s uncharacteristically solid 2005 will make him a lot of money this year.
I don’t think Helm’s glove is an issue. If you sign Jones, as Dave said in his other post, you need someone to platoon with him against lefties. If Helms is really that bad on defense, you can DH him and let Raul have a night in LF.
Mike Snow,
I came up with 17.5 by adding (3.5 + 1.5) + (4.5 + 1.5) + (6 + 1.5) = 17.5. Sure, it isn’t really a $17.5m contract, but can be sold as one. Sometimes that’s all it takes.
Dave’s remarks even said that Helms should platoon with Jones by DHing. Never was it suggested that Helms ever play the field.
Evan:
Since everyone on this site is devoted to accuracy a minor clarification from the orginal entry:
“He can play first or third and give them the pinch-hitting bat they’ve lacked the past several seasons.”
I took that phrase to suggest that if needed Wes Helms would play the field.
So I believe your comment, “Never was it suggested” would be incorrect.
Here’s hoping that should Wes arrive at your doorstep you have better luck than Milwaukee in maximizing his talents.
Instead of Helms, what do people think of Eli Marrero as the bench’s lefty-masher. He made more than $2mil last year, but he’s a free agent coming off an injury-plagued half-season that included getting DFA’s by the royals and hitting .181. Sounds pretty good, right?
Seriously, from 2002-2004, he hit 326/376/597 against lefties. He needs to be kept far away from RHPs, but he might actually have some utility in the outfield as well – it would give you a bit more flexibility than someone who needed to be a DH only.
Ultimately, it all depends on his injuries (I really don’t know how severe they are) and money – I don’t think he’s in a great bargaining position, however.
Helms wouldn’t even be taking the field that much, anyways. And when he did, it’d be at first far more than 3rd.
#58- About Loaiza being average in the AL, I’m not so sure about that, remember his 2003 year? 21-9. Then New York, some people either have it or don’t have it. Loaiza is one of the better pitchers when you look at it.
#59- What makes you think Loaiza will want to play for the Royals, Royals Owner David Glass has to show a effort which he hasn’t in the last few yrs. If Loaiza signs with Arizona he would be a OK signing, not great, though not that bad either.
#76- Durazo will probably cost around the same price as Jones, and I’m not so sure after this yr’s injury. Also, I’m not sure he’s the type of hitter that will fit well in Safeco. Choo still has plenty of upside, but needs to gain some plate displicine. Bradley is a terrible option IMO, as he can tear a team apart alone w/his attitude(Cleveland and LA). Does Seattle really need Bradley’s antics? About losing a draft pick for Jones, I agree it’s not really worth it when you look at it, and Loaiza isn’t worth losing a draft pick for the M’s either.
#80- Though is Jones really worth that much? At 2 yrs/$10 million, I think I pass. I rather start Reed or Choo, Choo with the chance can outhit Jones by a small margin and will be much cheaper. I agree the M’s can’t really afford losing a draft pick, so why waste a draft pick on signing Jones?
Andrew: I came up with 17.5 by adding (3.5 + 1.5) + (4.5 + 1.5) + (6 + 1.5) = 17.5
No, that equals 18.5, and your original post didn’t really indicate that the $1.5M incentives applied to the option year as well. That’s why it didn’t make sense.
I will throw this out there…instead of Helms, how about some left-handed bench “sock”…Tino Martinez!
Good clubhouse guy. A winner. Solid glove to backup Sexson. Probably come cheap. Good PR move.
He was let go by the Yanks today.
If Marrero is willing to catch, that would make it even sweeter. Have a backup C you can start v LHP, and come off the bench all the other days as a reserve C/1B/OF. Really helps the versatility of the bench, too.
Dave,
With the exception of K. Brown, who we’ve discussed, I like the plan. In particular, I like that it _is_ a plan; it’s readily apparent to see the team and roster construction concepts behind the acquisitions, and they interlock. This doesn’t get into trades, but it’s not intended to.
There’s no way Jojima is not a significant asset, and the Ms can get it done if they want to get it done. I’d rather have his strengths for two years until Clement works his way into the picture than coast and hope.
I’ve been a Bohn man en blog, and for the reasons you cite, and he’s already in the org, too. ‘Course, I was and still am a Charles Gipson fan for his D and baserunning alone, but Bohn has gap power that the Gipper doesn’t. The comparison to Posednick (I saw his triple for his first MLB hit, twas a gas), although Scott made a bit more contact and knew how to operate that kind of game.
I’d love to do better at the plate than Jones, but where is that guy in this market? There’s nobody there. His best value is with the glove, and he can play all three spots. Even at the money you project, his contract would be moveable supposing that the Ms wanted to go another way.
Loaiza, to me, is the third best pitcher on the market, and I’ve been in favor of the Ms going for the sign there for some time. He gets plenty Ks, has a good BB/9, is a GBer, and throws plenty of innings. He has another strength we haven’t talked about: durability, as much as any pitcher. Something to remember about his bad time in NY: they had a horrible infield defense when he was there, and a poor defense overall. Here is an issue with the horrible early years of Loaiza: he was, and to a significant extent still is, a two pitch pitcher, a cutter and a FB. He had a great propensity for giving up the five-run inning when something wasn’t working because he had nothing to fall back on. To the extent that Esteban has improved in the last three years, and I think his improvement is real, it’s that he seems a bit better at stopping the bleeding during a bad patch with his stuff. That’s called, Learning How to Pitch. He is not as dominant as his good stretches, but even when he’s not going well he eats up innings. I don’t see him as a top of the rotation guy; more a Fassero kind of sign for the middle of the rotation. Put the Ms defense behind him, and the Ms bullpen after him, and you maximize what he does best. At ~$6-7 a year, well that’s Pinero’s vody, and Loaiza’s better than Joel at this point.
Bringing in Helms as a platoon compliment is good, although one could argue that LeCroy offers as much upside. Grover won’t use either of them, so it wouldn’t matter, but.
I don’t think that the Ms are going to trade Eddie, either, not with the way this played out. Having Guardado for one year at his present $$ isn’t a burden, he’s effective, and he should still be tradeable at the Break come to that. I’d rather trade him now, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Pretty reasoned extrapolation from existing starting point…end result looks a lot like last year’s outfield, jones is an upgrade from Winn, but not all that much. Team still seems very punchless…thus run deprived…starting pitchers alone would be a vast improvement.
Ichiro seems to be the keylog in the paradigm…with the corrolary that this type of roster desparately needs offense from the middle positions (cf, ss, 2b, catcher)and is probably not going to get it soon.
The only objection I might make is that none of the acquisitions seem to have ever touched the Dodger or Angel organizations which is a key to predicting Bavasi moves…
this is generally a bad plan. the mariners are not going to contend for a couple years. bringing in brown and loaiza is insane. brown more so. the mariners can win 80 games next year staying young, and by so doing save some money, and hold onto most of the fanbase. or they can overpay for a guys like brown and loaiza, pretend that they’re going to contend, and then lose 90 games again when everybody gets hurt. nageotte is a better starting option. cheap, young, and talented. also, healthy. we should think about contending in 2 or 3 years, not this year.
Eduardo Perez is my choice for pinch-hitter/lefty basher/backup first-baseman. As I recall we thought about luring him to the NW a few years ago. He went to Tampa, was hurt for most of the first year, played very well the second year, and is now a FA. I say 2yr/3.5 million with the second year a club option. He’ll DH against lefties, spell Richie occasionally, and be our designated late inning pinch-hitter.
Complement that w/
Giles, 3/27
Burnett, 4/48
Morris, 2/15 (3rd year option)
Brown, 1yr minor league deal
Jojima, 2/8
Moyer, 1/4
and I like our chances. But then again I always like our chances, in November.
I still say…sign Jojima and then trade Torrealba and Franklin to Colorado for Aaron Miles. Then package Lopez, Meche and Thorton to someone like LA for Lowe. Sign Millwood, Jacque Jones and Moyer.
Ichiro RF
Miles 2B
Ibanez DH
Sexson 1B
Beltre 3B
Jones LF
Jojima C
Reed CF
Betancourt SS
Lowe
Hernandez
Moyer
Millwood
Piniero