Today’s insane market news
DMZ · November 30, 2005 at 11:46 am · Filed Under General baseball
Konerko stays with the White Sox with a 5 year, $60m deal. This is crazy. And some of the stories floating around would have you believe that there was a 6 year deal from another team on the table.
Also, some reliever guy got some huge contract.
If Konerko gets 5/60, Giles… well, he’s not going to be a Mariner, folks.
Update! Giles re-signs with San Diego, reportedly for 3 years at $30 million. Compared even to Konerko’s deal, that’s low. Wow.
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137 Responses to “Today’s insane market news”
at 5yr/$60M he took a ‘hometown discount’ (if you can call it that!) the other preports were 5 yr/$65M from the Orioles, and 5 yrs/$60M+ from the Angels… the Sun also mentions that Konerko has an arthritic hip that gave the O’s some pause… but still they all went ahead with the offers.
I getting the idea that we’d be best off not signing anyone who is considered a 1st tier or 2nd tier free agent this year. My hope is that in a year or two, things correct themselves, even if just a little bit. With that, we’d still need a few starters. Maybe a lower end free agent and some smart trades?
Let’s face it, we’re not going to get good players via trades by holding onto all of our decent prospects. That thinking got us the past few years anyway, when we wouldn’t trade our untouchable pitching prospects.
The way this is going the only left-handed sock the M’s are going to get is one with holes that let the toes poke through.
And the starting pitching sweepstakes haven’t even really starterd yet.
I would NOT sign any free agents in this crazy atmosphere. Hopefully Bavasi will leave his check book home when he goes to Texas. The trade route should be the way to go.
Welcome back, Gil Meche.
Amazing how bad these deals are… It makes Jojima look like the steal of the off-season.
[6 glaring grammar/spelling errors snipped]
Was Giles going to be our savior anyway?
The most troubling thing about this off-season is that, although other teams seem to accept inflation and pay big money to land players, the Mariners FO and most people on this blog are unwilling to shift paradigms. Reminds me of my grampa’s classic quote every time he passes a gas station: “$2.39? I’m not paying $2.39 for a gallon of sludge!”
Of course, he does end up paying it – that’s the sad truth of supply and demand. And if the Mariners ever want a World Series, they’ll have to accept it too. Yes, there have been exceptions to the rule in recent years, but with teams like the Mets, Yanks, and Sox manipulating the market, the underdog will never have his day.
re: Giles, the Jays think he is going to decde before the Winter meetings; FWIW, Gordon Edes in the Globe opined (after Ricciardi denied reports the Jays had offered Brian Giles 5/$55M) that the Jay’s offer was prob. more like 4/$40M+
No one said Giles would be a savior.
Also — shift paradigms my butt. The market goes insane, the market gets depressed. The key is to try and find reasonably-priced or undervalued talent. That’s all.
But, don’t we have to use our money somewhere?
It looks like the real question here is can we get anyone else from Japan?
Konerko will start next season at age 30. He’ll be 35 on the fat end of a huge contract. Good signing for him by his agent.
Terrible signing for baseball in general. Death knell signing for the Mariner’s opportunity to get a bat.
If you want to use the gas analogy, the free agent market of the past two years, in most cases, has been akin to paying $15/gallon. At some point, you just break down and buy a bus pass or work from home. There are alternate means of transportation for people who refuse to be enslaved by gasoline.
Likewise, there are alternate means of player acquisition to free agency. If the market for free agents goes nuts, then you make trades. Paying $10 million for a closer because everyone else is a lemming mentality.
DMZ, I agree, but does Bavasi strike you as someone capable of outwitting the other players in the market to land the undervalued, discounted free agent? Need I make a case against his acquisitions? Billy B isn’t our GM.
With the money that the big markets are bringing in despite their irreverent spending, I’m not so sure the market will right itself. I appreciate your optimism, but I don’t share it.
Wait, maybe at this rate everyone else will spend all their money before all the good free agents are gone, then we’ll be able to snatch them up on the cheap!
What’s even weirder is that even though Scott Elarton is garnering interest from like 10 teams, and everybody’s looking for pitching. Nobody will touch the people we want to get rid of with a 10 foot pole.
Everything’s inflated except the trade value of a Mariner it seems.
Kris, that’s because they’ve seen them pitch.
Just dawned on me…White Sox will have Konerko and Thome batting from either side of the plate, likely back to back.
I’m not a huge Sox fan but that’ll be an awesome line-up if Thome can get and stay healthy. As a DH only, he’ll likely be able to bounce back enough to be an impact player for them. I bet they run away with the Central..again.
What’s so alarming? I don’t get it. Konerko’s deal isn’t far off what Sexson got, and Sexson was a much bigger risk. Its nowhere near what Thome got 3 years ago. The 5th year seems a little long, but hardly shocking. 35 years old is a perfectly reasonable age to expect Konerko to still be producing.
If Konerko is worth $12 million over 5, then Giles is worth about $11 million over 3 or maybe 4. Its pretty much what people have been guessing all winter.
DMZ, maybe I am buying in to a lemming mentality. With the way the past few years have gone, a lemming’s death doesn’t seems so bad. Less prolonged suffering.
I love the trade avenue, but when our players are in such low demand, I can’t see trades getting us out of the kiddie pool. The trades suggested by the USSM honchos would be great if I had any confidence that our FO could pull them off.
Just looking at age and career numbers Konerko’s contract (5 years at 12m per year) doesn’t seem too far out of line with Sexson’s (4 years at 12.5m).
Except Konerko is a vastly inferior player. Konerko’s best years would be a poor year for Richie (when healthy, obviously).
Talking about bargains, doesn’t it look like Frank Thomas must now be available. Thoughts on him?
Is it time to switch to plan B yet?
Loaiza is now off the market.
Both of Bavasi’s “dream” left socks are already traded.
The M’s cash cow doesn’t appear to be able to buy as much as everyone thought at the beginning of the off season.
Giles appears to be so out of reach i doubt he’s even taken any calls with a 206 area code.
Even J.Jones appears to be getting WAY more than he’s worth.
Burnett is the gem and it would probably take the entire offseason budget to get him to come to the west coast.
It would almost seem reasonable for the M’s to play it conservative, choose a few lower risk signings or trades, eat some money this season, see how the young guys perform next year, and play next years market…..but what if next years market is worse than this year?
I wouldn’t of said it 2 weeks ago, but what about Weaver to a long term deal? He’s young, no injury history, and a HUGE innings eater. He was looking at atleast $9 per before the recent signings and i’m sure his price is probably closer to $10+ for atleast 4 years. But he seems like a lower risk than Millwood, Byrd, or Giles for 5.
Guys this all highlights how important player development and scouting are… markets oscillate and gawd forbid your team gets caught needing holes filled when the market is crazy (i.e. the M’s!)….
To insulate yourself from the market, you need to be able to plug guys in from the minor leagues or atleast produce prospects to the point that you have real trade bait. Also scouting helps in the sense that you can truly be smarter than the next guy when trading…for example: Dontrell Willis was really just a throw in for Florida. Also scouting can help with those lower tier guys….for example: Chris Carpenter was picked off of the scrap heep by St Louis.
I think we’ve all expected at least one top notch arm being added to the rotation. Truthfully, given this market, I think we’ll be lucky to have a rotation like below:
1. Felix
2. Byrd (overpay-6.5 mill/3 yr)
3. Trachsel (via trade-2.5 mill/year bargain)
4. Moyer ( 5.5 mill plus incentitives)
5. Pineiro
Adding those two FA arms plus the cost of Jojima roughly means 20 million in payroll.
Id like to be optimistic, but I simply dont see how the M’s assemble a rotation that would be better than last year’s via trading. The Trachsel suggestion is perhaps doable but proabably overly optimistic. Bavasi is shopping Yorvit in Denver for a starter for gosh sakes (isnt that where starters go to die?). That doesnt encourage me concerning the league’s perception of the M’s chips.
I fear the M’s rotation wont be better. It will just be different for the sake of being different. In other words, bring in different arms and hope for career years.
I know the signings have been crazy but to quote #6 Dan “It makes Jojima look like the steal of the off-season.” how can anyone be thinking that? If you are talking $$$$/years, then it may be a good signing, but if the guy doesnt meet expectations, then how can it be regarded as a good signing. Even when the M’s got Ichiro, no one called it the steal of the off-season..no one even knew the guy.
Great acquisition is he freeforms, yes. Steal of the off-season….no.
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#26…sorry “performs”
I am not sure that Konerko is “vastly inferior” to Sexson. In what ways? They seem pretty comparable to me, with Konerko having been healthy more of the time. Similar skills and neither hits for a great average or are future Gold Glovers. This signing actually seems like one of the more reasonable ones this off-season to me.
What about Kyle Farnsworth getting a 3 year 17M contract from the Yankees? I am sure the bars around the Yankees stadium are as happy as Farnsworth cause Kyle’s binge drinking will increase their revenue dramatically. 17M can sure buy a lot of booze.
Paul Konerko’s line away from US Celluar Field the past three years:
.248/.324/.432 in 810 at-bats.
Konerko’s an okay player who is vastly overrated thanks to playing in a hitter friendly ballpark on a team that just won the world series.
And I like the Farnsworth deal for the Yanks. But I’m a Farnsworth fan.
This market makes names like “Preston Wilson” sound enticing
Konerko gets 60 million two years after posting a 704 OPS at first base?
What would a legitimate superstar at a premium position get? infinity billion dollars?
So, creativity is obviously a must at this point, which has been said often enough. Is this going to lead to some things we though weren’t on the table being considered again by the management?
My biggest question is, does this insane market open the possibility for trying Soriano out in the rotation again or is that a completely closed book? Meche in the bullpen to replace him? I know we’ve talked about this a lot, and I suspect that baseball teams in general and the Mariners in particular are resistant to letting things like this affect the way they think about players already on the roster. But I feel like given the situation they have to try it again.
Or, if there isn’t a major market correction in the next year, do you think the Mariners will have to rethink their current spending limits a la DMZ’s how-to-win-a-world-series piece a few weeks ago?
Re: #26
I based my assumption of Jojima being a steal on several factors. First, the market is insane right now. Teams are dishing out major money for marginal talent. That point has been well covered. Second, I know $16.5/ 3 years seems high for an “unknown†talent from Japan. Yet, here’s some food for thought. Based on DMZ great posting a few weeks ago regarding Jojima projections, conservatively he is one of the top ten catchers (.735 OPS) in the majors and optimistically he is a top three (.955 OPS). Plus from what I hear from friends and in-laws from Japan, he looks fantastic behind and at the plate. I know it is an opinion but I am high on the guy, then again I might me wrong.
I’d love to see Soriano return to the rotation. The question is whether that’s what he wants, and whether they think he can be more durable and useful in the pen. And that’s not a decision I have any insight into: if they really think that they can get 100 really great innings out of him pitching him in tight, high-leverage relief situations (tie or close score for innings 7-8) or 150 good innings before he goes down, the choice is clear.
And similarly, if they want to try to get him longer and longer work as he returns from injury in the hopes that he can take over a rotation spot later in the season, that’s cool too.
more re: #26– “Even when the M’s got Ichiro, no one called it the steal of the off-season..no one even knew the guy.”
um, no. here’s just two quotes from November 5 years ago….
Daily News, Nov 2000 “And now Ichiro Suzuki is trying to become the first Japanese position player to have an impact in the major leagues. His negotiating rights are up for bid to the 30 big-league teams and today is the deadline to submit sealed envelopes. Suzuki is a buzzword around the GM meetings as teams decide whether – and how much – they want to bid for a player that has been compared by scouts to Kenny Lofton and been called one of the five best outfielders in the world by Bobby Valentine. Both the Yankees and Mets have had their eyes on him and both likely will submit bids prior to the deadline. The Yankees have talked about Suzuki, 27, at organizational meetings this week, but hadn’t put in a bid as of yesterday, GM Brian Cashman said. “We got wind this was coming, so we had a scout watch him for five or six days this season so we’d be able to discuss him,” said Gordon Blakeley, the Yankees director of international scouting. “We’ve got tape on him, too. He’s their icon there. Everybody knows him.”
SF Chronicle, Nov 2000 “Even without Alex Rodriguez, Seattle could steal the division if Ichiro Suzuki, the seven-time batting champion from Japan, is as good as advertised (count on it, say the scouts)”
As compared to Sexson’s road stats the last 3 years (627 AB):
276/379/553
I’d call that vastly superior.
Speaking of bad contracts…. The Phillies spending $3.55mil for 2 years of Abraham O. Nunez is a little silly, too. You could probably sign a minor league free agent to give you similar production (.248/.314/.326 over eight seasons and 2000+ plate appearances) for the league minimum. Granted it’s not that much money, but there’s no reason to throw it away.
Sorry, off-topic – just reminding all that today is the last day to vote on mlb.com to ensure Dave Neihaus is on the final ballot for the Ford Frick award.
Seems like this year the free agent market was very thin, and so there is the usual amount of money chasing fewer players. So prices have gone up.
The M’s problem is that they cannot get their holes filled via free agency, and they don’t have anything of value that they want to trade (they have a few players that have some minor value that they can spare, but not enough to get anyone really good). About the best we can hope for is that the M’s can package some moderate talent and agree to take on some salary in return for a decent player that is overpaid by a team that wants to cut payroll.
That probably won’t get the M’s over .500 in 2006.
Giles to Toronto was the rumor I heard.
Frank Thomas at DH intrigues me, but only a little.
Good starters are worth good money, but who’s good and available?
Millwood, right? If the M’s want to compete they’ll need a good starter at the very least. No point in getting the left sock if the staff gives up 5+ a game. I’m nervous, Moyer isn’t signed yet. And even if Moyer is signed…….I’m nervous (no, it’s not a chronic problem), because I’m not confident he will do as well as he did last year. Here’s praying (from an atheist) that one of those younger starters comes out of nowhere to rock the Safe.
So I guess this closes the book on the Big Hurt in Chicago. Do you guys expect the M’s to pursue him as an option? Not a lefty but plenty of sock and OBP.
No one knows for certain how any of these aqcuistions will perform next year, I don’t see why Johjima wouldn’t be in the running for “steal of the offseason”.
In fact, right now, I’d say he has a pretty big head start on the title.
In regards to the earlier Frank Thomas comment, Thomas might be the hitting equivalent to Kevin Brown in this years FA market. Teams regard him as injury prone and a bad clbuhouse guy, so he might come cheap and, if healthy, potentially produce at a level that is equivalent to or exceeds his salary. If he is cheap along the lines of how Dave wanted to work a Kevin Brown contract, I would want Bavasi to explore the idea. And Ibanez can play left.
#34: I think what we see happen with GM’s and teams in an offseason like this one is…….
..they have money to spend and holes to fill…..the talent on the market isn’t the typical premium type players, but its got enough shine to make them talk themselves into pricing it as premium players.
The fact that there is no Tejada, Vlad, Pedro on the market to set the high end results in GM’s giving high end contracts to good but not premium talent, because that’s the best that’s available on the market.
Simple supply and demand economics.
As to the idea that not trading our untouchable pitching prospects is what has gotten us the last few years…
Well, the most I would agree with your sentiment is that I think we should be particular about what we define as untouchable…
But as a general philosophy, I like hanging on to our young pitching. Our problem is certainly not too much organizational a-list pitching.
Looking at all our minor league pitching injuries ovr the years it’s tempting to imagine what we could have traded them for instead of being left with nothing – but that, to me, is a particularly unhelpful sort of hindsight.
If even a few of those talented arms had stayed healthy, even one or two of the star prospects, we would be in a very different spot today.
I can’t blame not trading them for our woes.
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Sheesh guys, take a chill pill.
Now, have I raise an eyebrow at a couple of these contracts? For sure, but its not the end of the world. Take a look at last year, the same thing was happening and the Mariners pulled off some pretty good signings in my opinion.
After early signings (Benson to the Mets and Glaus to the D-Backs) people were talking about the madness that is the free agent market. There was chatter that we would not have enough money to sign big name free agents. Finnigan, (I know, I know) was championing Corey K______. And what happened? We sign Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. The latter who found himself with a surprisingly small number of bidders.
The moral of the story is that its way to early to panic. There is still alot of ballplayers on the free agent market who can help this ballclub. Other needs can be filled via trade. Not that anything is gonna be a slamdunk. I’m as nervous as the next guy but lets not overreact.
Saving money for future offseasons when the market isn’t so expensive? Thats not an answer. Anyone who follows the Mariners knows that money doesn’t roll over it dissapears. Spend it now, fill needs in a market that is equally crazy for all teams.
Konerko and Richie had basically identical seasons with the bat.
But Richie had been about that good for several years (first put up a .300+ EqA when he was 23), while Konerko has never been that good before (first put up a .300+ EqA last season, when he was 29).
Look at his splits, Evan.
Peak Konerko = Mediocre Richie.
And Richie is better with the glove. He is not GG material, but he is a better than Konerko from what I have seen. Plus, he can play left (but please do not let him!!)
As I said – while last year they were equal, it was easily Konerko’s best year. It was a fairly typical Richie year.
Konerko’s 2005 road OPS was .853. I’m sorry, but that’s not equal to posting a .911 OPS in Safeco.
This thread may have gone in a different direction, but Giles could still be a Mariner in April. His agent reportedly offered the Padres 3/$30M. That number is low enough that it seems like a real “hometown discount” rather than an extremely inaccurate judge of Giles’ market value.
Sure the Blue Jays may have offered 5/$55 million, but Giles appears to want a West Coast team, and the Angels, Dodgers, and A’s pass, then why not us? Might he bite at 3/$33 or 3/$36 to stay in the same timezone? It’s still possible.
Frankly, I’m surprised Oakland never expressed any interest. I had no idea they were going to sign anyone and spending $11-12 million on a superstar bat whose willing to take a West Coast discount makes more sense to me than spending a market rate $7 million on a league average inning muncher.
I didn’t bother to do the conversion myself. I was working from their VORP and VORPr numbers.
Konerko: .358 VORPr – 56.4 VORP
Sexson: .358 VORPr – 56.3 VORP
Since they play the same position, that’s a fair comparison.
As a friend of Soriano, I can tell you that he’s not completely opposed to returning to the rotation. As a matter of fact, Rafael Chaves talked to him on numerous occassions last year about returning to the rotation while he was in Tacoma rehabbing. Now that he’s the pitching coach may make a return to the rotation more likely. I think what Soriano likes about pitching out of the pen is what most people assume is the case — that he can just let it fly for an inning or two without having to save anything.
He’s pitching for Escogido in the Dominican Winter League, and while the results haven’t been ideal (6+ era thus far, although that’s been the cause of some bad luck and bad defense), his arm feels good which is probably the most important thing.
Anyways guys love the site, and just thought I’d give my 2 cents.
Re: Bavasi’s ability to find undervalued free agent talent. I direct you to exhibt A: Kenji Johjima. Also, Sexson’s contract looks a lot better in this light; shorter for a player with higher career OPB and 50 points more career SLG, and a significantly better defender, to boot. Konerko’s raw stats are extremely inflated by playing in the AL’s answer to Coors Field. Sexson and Konerko are not as close in terms of hitting talent as it appears on the surface.
Contracts like this are not a sign that baseball is failing or that the Mariners need to go as insane as Riccardi or Williams to compete. This is good news; the more money teams piss away, the more undervalued the undervalued talent will become. This move doesn’t make the White Sox better, it makes them worse, makes them easier competition.
And, finally, yes, I like the idea of Frank Thomas as a DH on a 1 year contract if he can be signed relatively cheaply. He’s practically guaranteed to outperform Dobbs in that role. More specifically, if Thomas is injured all year, he’s still likely to outperform Dobbs….
VORP applies a blanket park factor to all players. US Cellular is extremely friendly to flyballs down the left field line, a perfect match for Konerko. He gets more help from his stadium than the park factor would indicate.
I really don’t want to sign a DH. Because that puts Ibanez in left.
I want Ibanez to DH. Let’s get a guy with a glove out there.
That’s useful information, Dave. Without that sort of information I can’t tell if we should give Konerko credit for his .959 home OPS. It could have been a sample-size variation for all I knew.
That said, since he’s staying there, that’s part of his value. Konerko is more valuable to the White Sox than he would be to other teams (much like Ibanez is to us).
If getting Thomas as DH puts Ibanez in left, that may STILL be a plus, depending on how much of an offensive lift Thomas can bring. If an Ibanez LF loses us 15-20 runs (pulling numbers out my rear), it would still be worth it if Thomas gains us 30-40 at a minimal price.
Big Frank’s in his breakdown stage. Having watched him up close since 2001 I might take him on a 1 year deal at this point but that’s it.
This is a guy who expects, even demands the most media attention on the team or he goes into the most horrific pouts/funks imaginable. Nobody on or around the Sox org would say it in print, but if they’d gotten something even approaching a reasonable trade offer for Frank the past few years the Sox would have jumped on it. Frank’s rep is as sour as Manny Ramirez’s.
Ibanez’s fielding stats indicate that if he were to cost us -15 FRAR in LF next year, that would represent a near-total collapse of his ability to catch and throw the little white ball. He’s not great, he’s not even particularly good, but the numbers seem to say that he’s somewhere between average and ok. If Thomas is available at a reasonable price, the overall upgrade to the team would certainly be vastly in excess of whatever downgrade in LF defense we’d suffer, if any downgrade at all. The Red Sox won a World Series with Manny Ramirez ‘fielding’ LF (and Manny appears to be just about replacement level defense in LF), we can succeed with a merely average Ibanez.
A different contract; Ibanez appears to be somewhere around league average in LF. Manny Ramirez is somewhere around replacement level, which itself appears to be around -8 or -9 fielding runs below league average. If Ibanez costs us -15 FRAA, he’s probably the worst defensive LF in the game by a fair margine. If he costs us -15 FRAR, he’s the stuff of legend, ~-14 runs worse than Manny Ramirez.
But rather than entertain myself with speculating about the stories people would tell about someone who’s -15 FRAR in LF, yea, even decades after the fact, the fact is that Ibanez is an acceptable corner outfielder and the Mariners should see if there’s a cheap effective DH available somewhere. Thomas is the obvious choice, but it’s a hole we can fill.
With the right bat at DH, I wouldn’t have a huge problem with Ibanez in left field. He seems to prefer to be there so he might produce a little bit better with the bat if he’s playing the field every day, and from what people are saying, his defense, while nothing to write home about, certainly isn’t abysmal.
The right bat, however, is not Greg Dobbs or Willie Bloomquist.
Is there a VORP derivative that takes park factors into account?
VORP does take park factors into effect. It just applies a blanket park factor to all players for a team, so it’s not perfect, just like no stat is 100 percent right.
And Manny Ramirez is far, far worse than 10 runs below average. The best estimates have him at something like 30 runs below average. He’s truly horrible.
If I’m Soriano and I’m looking at the big bucks being handed out to closers this year. I say….thank you very much. I’ll stay in the pen, throw 75 innings, protect my arm, build a rep as a closer in training and take the bug check in a few years.
If were gonna talk Frank Thomas, lets not neglect Juan Gonzalez whose also old and injury plagued. Rafael “I’ve never taken steriods” Palmiero is available and lefthanded to boot. Sign Piazza and trade for Griffey and we could field the all 90’s team.
Lets revisit our needs once again. Lefthanded stick and starting pitching. Frank Thomas is niether.
Left-handed stick is getting expensive. It may not be worth it.
If only we had Doyle.
Re: “left handed stick/starting pitching are our needs”
Those are the areas where help is most needed, but especially in this wacky free agent market, you look to improve the team where you can. And it’s becoming increasingly clear that real improvement without vastly overpaying, in this market, is going to take some creativity.
Why not look at some inexpensive dumpster-dive options at DH, a la the Kevin Brown suggestion that keeps coming up? A stick is a stick; it’d be nice to have it be left handed, and it’d be nice to have it at the exact position you want; but at this point, if you can make a move that’s going to help your offense, you do it if the numbers make sense, regardless of where the stick ends up.
Palmiero could possibly be had for a reasonable sum and for gawds sake we all know he can hit the ball out of Safeco. (see any Ms pitcher last 6 years)
Is he too tainted for the Ms? Is he too tainted for baseball in general?
Left handed stick and starting pitching are our needs…what can we get? And how do we get it without trashing the future?
And don’t forget…superior right handed bat beats an average left handed bat every time….
Dave: And Manny Ramirez is far, far worse than 10 runs below average. The best estimates have him at something like 30 runs below average. He’s truly horrible.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/ramirma02.shtml *shrug* You can compare those numbers to Ibanez. Defensive metrics are flawed and not to be taken at face value blah blah yes, but Ibanez (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/ibanera01.shtml) doesn’t appear to be particularly bad, and Ramirez doesn’t appear to be the epic disaster that he’s reputed to be, merely replacement level.
While the crowd seems to be shifting focus to 1 year solutions in this wacky market, does anyone know where to find a reliable list of next season’s free agent crop?
I’ve done a ton of posts on defense. Feel free to read the archives. Bottom line; DT’s are basically useless.
Check out Ramirez’s UZR, PMR, Range, or Dial’s ZR. Manny is HORRIBLE.
Based upon the dollars being thrown around, it looks to me like the Marlins’ strategy of unloading top players for prospects may have some merit in this market, although I think they might have been able to get better prospects had they waited to see what the free agent market would be this year. More than ever, the teams that can build with home grown talent and other teams’ prospects would appear to have a big edge, even if it means a couple of down years to restock. Assuming Beane’s plan is to unload Zito, he appears to have already figured that out, although the A’s will probably avoid a down year (as usual)….
Regarding No. 80, I absolutely agree. No Mariner should be untradeable, except the King, Ichiro, and Johjima. Making a few trades would allow the Ms to find creative ways to spend their money without buying into the market when it’s this crazy. For example, if the Ms could have done with Sexson what Florida did with Delgado, that would have been smart. I get the feeling the FO would never shake things up like that, but I don’t see any other way to spend but not overpay.
The Marlins’ strategy is exactly what the Expos’ strategy was when Loria owned them.
Suck.
#81– so, you’re recommending trading the only power hitter on the team for a AA pitcher and a A infielder?
#82 –
Somehow, they managed to win the World Series the last time Loria owned them.
I’m no Marlins fan, or Loria fan, but that team has won 2 WS in a short time, and the city still doesn’t support them, and won’t help enough in building a stadium. Maybe, just maybe, he’s right in figuring that baseball just can’t last there.
It’s also a team that won the World Series and intentionally destroyed itself in a tantrum, and now, stymied again, is repeating that. They’re not making it easy to be a fan.
#81. I don’t think Sexson is tradable. He simply can’t be replaced power wise. There are only a hadnful of guys his caliber. Year to year, that handful will trade off on who has the best stats.
I’d take Richie, any day, over just about any trade package short of Roy Halladay and Alfonso Soriano.
I agree. I’d just like my team to win a WS.
But doesn’t any team who doesn’t win regularly make it tough to be a fan? I just get frustrated.
But then, I am also a Buffalo Bills fan. And that is one of the most frustrating things possible in this world.
86 — No on Alfonso Soriano. (Yes to Rafael Soriano.)
I’d take the chance on Palmeiro. If he can be had affordably, and would be willing to DH that would be a good gamble for a year. ESPN shows that he pulled 3 million last year. I think he could come very cheap.
I’d trade anyone but Felix for Roy Halladay. Almost any two players.
I agree that Felix and Johjima shouldn’t be traded, and I would add Sexson, Beltre and Betancourt to that list. Ichiro is more debatable given that his contract will be up next year (I think), but I’d have to be overwhelmed to get rid of him. Given the apparent hunger out there for respectable relief pitchers, however, I’d be shopping Guardado, Mateo and Putz like crazy, as well as solid but unspectacular veterans like Ibanez, in an effort to score young starting pitching talent to build a rotation around Felix within a couple of years. Let’s pass on Burnett, Millwood and the other suspects this year and plan for a World Series in a few years…
I think the Mariners should sign Kevin Brown he can probably be had at a minor league contract. Why not? Go after Rafael Palmeiro AND Frank Thomas. Both of those guys contract will be less than what it is to sign Brian Giles. You get 2 power hitters out of it. One of them gets injured put the other in. Why not the way this market is and if we want to compete next season we have to get lucky by getting a steal in the offseason. Of course all 3 to 1 year contracts
What do you think it would take to get Ross Gload from the White Sox?
He seems to fit the LH stick, high OBP mold that we need.
So, do these insane signings mean Moyer’s gotten too expensive to resign?
I know – let’s sign Palmeiro, Thomas, Sosa, and Gonzales to one year contracts and platoon them at DH. As their body parts fall off, maybe we can reassemble them into a decent player.
RE:11
The A’s released Keiichi Yabu. If he’s still looking to play in the Majors he might be worth picking up on the cheap. Earlier in his career he put up pretty good numbers with the Hanshin Tigers and showed a lot of promise. Obviously he didn’t wow anybody with his performance in Oakland. I think you could take a chance on him as a innings eater as a 6th man in the rotation or a long reliever. Who knows he might be one of those “scrap heap players” mentioned earlier. OR he could end up being Sele 2004.
In regards to the earlier Frank Thomas comment, Thomas might be the hitting equivalent to Kevin Brown in this years FA market. Teams regard him as injury prone and a bad clbuhouse guy, so he might come cheap and, if healthy, potentially produce at a level that is equivalent to or exceeds his salary.
Man, everybody here seems to be hating on Frank Thomas. The guy’s a good teammate and a professional hitter on his way the the HoF. He can Mash. He can hit for average. He can walk. About the only things he can’t do are run or play defense. But that’s OK.
Personally, maybe the Athletics will take a chance on him. The influence he has on other players to get them to understand the science of hitting could be incredible.
Of course, he might just stay with the Sox if his ankle scares away the teams he’d like to play for. I could see him taking a bench role in Chicago and spelling Thome and Konerko–a role good for about 40 games a year, and pinch hit at-bats–to build his trade value.
Point: Frank Thomas may yet put up better numbers than Jim Thome.
To MSN, No. 83: yep, trade the only power hitter the Ms have for a stud prospect or two AND release from said power hitter’s contract. With the money saved, it wouldn’t feel so bad to give Giles 3 X $11M, Ibanez could play 1B, and the Ms would have a reasonable way to play Frank Thomas at DH.
Or whatever. It’s stupid to talk about specific deals, because we have no idea who’s really really willing to do what, but the point is general: don’t limit your options by taking all your commodities that are actually worth something off the market.
I think of it this way: Sexson’s current contract is probably about “market”, even in this crazy market. That is, $12.5M/year for Sexson seems about right now, because it seemed high last year. So, if the Ms can get prospects for him *and* his contract, of course they should. They could sign another market contract with someone else, like Giles or Burnett or Damon or whatever and improve their farm system as well.
chris w:
Giles and Burnett are going to get crazy contracts, not “market” contracts. Damon too, maybe, because there’s a lot of teams looking for help in center field.
I don’t see any advantage in moving Sexson; he’s quieted some of the concerns about his shoulder, and he’s a good middle-of-the-order hitter and a pretty decent defender.
Any solution that involves moving Ibanez to first would likely be a) a downgrade offensively at the position, b) a downgrade defensively at the position, and c) require us to overpay for someone in LF who can replace Sexson’s offense and also play good defense at that position.
I don’t see where you’d get enough value back for Sexson to justify essentially punting 2006. The M’s aren’t going to want to spend what it takes to get Giles or Burnett, at this point, and I honestly don’t really blame them.
Jeff Nye:
A couple things:
1) Free Agent contracts are, almost by definition, “market” contracts. So, those “crazy” contracts they’re going to get… market.
2) Everyone seems to agree this a crazy market. To be more specific, it’s a crazy *seller’s* market. To limit your options to being a buyer in a seller’s market is stupid. Sell high, whether it’s Sexson or Ibanez or Guardado or whomever. Another example (and please understand, these are just examples – the point is general one, not a specific one): Toronto was willing to pay Ryan 5 X $11M. What would they have given us for Guardado and his $6M 1 year contract? Would they have given us a few of their starting pitchers? Perhaps McGowan and Batista? Think how much better off the Ms would be with McGowan and Batista over Guardado. I really have no idea if that particular scenario realistic, but I wonder if the FO even asks these questions.
#79
Dave–are DT’s just an inferior fielding metric, or is the issue looking at just one evaluation of fielding? If DT’s are truly inferior, what goes into the other metrics that makes them superior measures of ability?
In my opinion, Chris W has it right.
I’d trade Sexson in a heartbeat For The Right Return.
Why would you want to decide absolutely that you wouldn’t trade someone without knowing what it is you’d be getting back? That’s just limiting your own options.
Yes, this applies to Felix, Ichiro and anyone else I adore… remembering that the rerturn has to be BETTER than what we give up.
The only valid argument for not trade someone without knowing the return is sort of a finesse argument… people that you know aren’t in a postion to get good value back, I believe, it’s fair to talk in general about not trading them… and even then, the trade market can surprise so it’s better not to argue in absolutes.
With Sexson specifically, there are good reasons why trading him for the right return wouldn’t hurt as much as trading some others… he has an easier to replace skill set, etc.
I love Sexson and he was great for us last year… but someone offers a great starting pitcher for him and I’ll drive him to the airport myself.
Chris W:
I absolutely agree with your general point. I just disagree, in the specific case of Sexson, with whether you’d get enough back for him to justify the big hole he’d leave you with in the lineup.
Sell high on either Ibanez or Guardado? Absolutely. They’re easier to replace with existing talent or a reasonably priced alternative option. Sexson, I just don’t see how you replace him without paying a huge premium in a market where everything is so overvalued.
Just perusing ESPN’s recent trades section and it showed M. Cameron was going to make around $7mil for the upcoming final year in a three year deal he signed with the Mets.
I love the guy and his D but back two years ago, I was gagging and thinking it was good the lvls didn’t sign him to that deal.
My oh my how times have changed. I wouldn’t mind good old Cammy in Center with Reed in LF for 2006! That’s even with all the K’s Cammy would take in late innings of close games considering.
FWIW, the 06 lvls can only be better with the shedding of excess bad players such as the 7 catchers, Boone and the others who I can’t recall off hand (that’s how I maintained my sanity).
Go lvls!!!!!
ESPN is reporting that Giles has signed with San Diego. Don’t know any details. One more lefty gone.
3 years 30 million for Giles on ESPN.com
Which mean J.P. wasn’t kidding about the report of 5 year/55 mil. was way off. Looks like the Jays will concentrate on A.J. Burnett now.
At this point I just dont see the Mariners taking any action in this round of FA. Maybe at the winter meetings they will spin a decent trade or something?
Link for Giles deal: http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20051130-1907-gilesdeal.html
“Giles, who will turn 35 before the start of the 2006 season, will make $9 million each of the next three seasons. Plus, the club holds an option for the 2009 season at another $9 million against a $3 million buyout.”
That’s just ridiculous you’d pay a 35 year old slugger who probably will be on the decline in the next couple of years $9 million a year.
That’s just absolute lunacy.
Meanwhile, I think what you’ll see is the M’s probably not just signing big-name free agents in the offseason.
It will be a mix of a whole bunch of different stuff.
You’ll probably get an average LH power hitter, a top-tier starting pitcher, Moyer at a hometown discount, and a trade for another starting pitcher.
The free agents including Moyer go to $20 mil. and some trades will be made.
I honestly think you will see the Mariners get back into the free agent ring very soon with $20 million to spend, probably by Christmas you’ll see some Mariners signings of some kind. They are just plotting their next move for the moment.
I will tell you this though, if Bavasi proves that he doesn’t know how to spend $20 million on Free agents, which is absolutely rare in HowardLand, then there is no way he deserves to be GM of this team, or any team for that matter.
Actually, I’d bet the Giles deal goes down as one of the best of the offseason.
9 million for Giles is a bargain, especially when it’s about the exact length you’d want it too.
I don’t see Giles declining too much in 3 years. Anything beyond that, those 4 and 5 year contract rumors, I was shaking my head. Giles went for about the price that I expected, and at 3 years is a quality signing.
Although, I’m kind of glad the M’s didn’t dump a lot of money into that, when we need pitching so bad. Gotta wonder if Bavasi can rock the winter meetings as well as he did last year when he got Sexson and Beltre out of them.
I’m just surprised that Giles was so set on staying in San Diego, seeing how much that park is on his hitting. Kudos to the Padres for securing the (genuine) home-town discount and getting that deal done.
rrg, I meant how BAD that park is on his hitting. Can’t think straight.
This off-season is whacked so it seems to make sense to just target one primary starter (Burnett or Millwood) and be happy we have a quality catcher. If the off-season boils down to Johjima + Burnett/Millwood + Bigbie (via trade for Torrealba) then I think we’ll survive. Going after contracts for players in such an exaggerated market might feel like another Boone or Cirillo or Sandfrog contract before long.
The team would be on pace for 85 wins and be in a position to trade for a missing part at the deadline in July. This team has plenty of money but not many good choices for spending it this year.
Huh. I’d pay that contract to Giles in a second. Must be a hometown discount, ’cause I’m sure a lot of teams would take Giles at 9 per. He’s going to be making less than Konerko while being all the hitter and more than people think Konerko is but isn’t.
This means Toronto’s going to have to get bats through trades.
Anyone who has bats to move should probably pay attention.
I hear Bob at Bob’s Bat Bonanza has billions of bats begging to be bought.
So much for the ‘crazy market’. Giles may not be Superman, but he should certainly have gone for much more than that. His projected decline rate would definitely have warranted more cash, or another year if the price was right.
I wonder if this will actually depress some of the pricing on what bats remain in the market? Probably not the pitching, but the rest of the field stands a good chance of being affected. Since most of them don’t matter to the M’s in the slightest, it will only be of academic value… but does anyone still think Jacque Jones is going to get 4 years from anyone but the Royals?
Re: Frank Thomas, he’ll wind up somewhere. Probably with the freakin’ Yankees or the LA Angels. I’d love to see the Big Hurt in an M’s uniform, but, then again, I was pumped when we got Kevin Mitchell a few years back. Just think, if the Big Hurt becomes the not-so-big Hurt as a Mariner, we can have some classic moments with Evil Rick Rizzs on the play-by-play: “Swing and a miss. Strike three called on the Artist formerly known as Frank Thomas… but then again, I look way too much like Neil Diamond.”
The new Neil Diamond record is actually very good, as is the Giles deal for the Padres. Haven’t anything from the Rick Rizzs record, though Neil’s record was produced by Rick Rubin.
I think Frank Thomas is jinxed. I can’t back it up with too many stats, other than the number of pennants and WS Chi won with him and without him. Hard to give someone that big a wide berth, but I’d recommend the M’s give him one you could fit him, Mitch, and Mo Vaughn thru three abreast.
There should be a contest. Which team will sign the most bloated, albatross-type free agent contract this season?
So far the contestants are many:
BJ RYAN
Billy Wagner
Scott Eyre
Paul Konerko
Brian Giles
Kenji Johjima (just kidding…this was actually a relatively sane contract)
With the ways things are going, Jaimie Moyer should ask for a 5-year contract. Some GM will prolly give it to him.
OK, I am a DIE HARD M’s fan… I LOVE this team, no matter what, win or lose. But….isn’t it time for some reaslism? I entered into this offseason thinking we could solve our problems with 3 solid signings. Assuming $20 Million was what we had available with our payroll, I thought if we could get Burnett ($11 mil per) Jacque Jones ($5) and Byrd/Elarton/Pitcher#3 ($4)…assuming our young guys (Lopez/Betancourt/Reed/Morse) would continue to develop as we hope, we could get back to at least .500 and start to dream once again about division contention. But these early signings are RIDICULOUS! And based on these early commitments, one can only assume that most baseball owners are on crack! So…..where do we go from here? Do we get into a bidding war with the other idiots and start offering $7 million per year for guys like Jones? I think not.
I am a “benefit of the doubt” kind of guy, which is NOT easy. The Mariners whoes simply can NOT be solved though free agency alone. We need to draft well, bank on our young guys to develop into ML quality players, and in the meantime, sprinkle our ML roster with solid, fiscaly responsilbe veterans, with an eye on immediate contention. Baseball is unique, in that CHEMISTRY is more important than in any other sport, and moreso than in any other major sport, a so-called “role player” can blossom into a star if put in the right situation. Therefore…
Let’s face it, this free agent crop is HIGHLY OVERRATED and so-far is on track to be HIGHLY OVERPAID!!!!!! So… I recommend we DON’T give in to the staus quo and start overpaying for underserving “regular” players, and start looking more towards the future of this franchise. We have already signed Johjima and commited $5 of our reported $20 mil in “available” payroll to him for 2006. So…..instead of throwing the rest of what we have left to spend on gambles like A.J. Burnett ($11 Mil/Year?) or Jones ($7 mil?) maybe it’s time to consider some bargains.
How about Scott Elarton or Shawn Estes as a short-term/low-cost alternative to the overpriced Weaver/Millwood/Washburn?? Or instead of overpaying to get a very mediocre offensive producer in Jones, taking the low-cost route of a Travis Lee/Kevin Millar/Todd Hollandsworth/Jermey Burnitz solution at DH? Or even Erubial Durazo, who is very LH, and will be VERY low-cost given the fact he needs to rehabilitate from a rotator cuff tear?
Just some thoughts. I’m open to anything. I just want to see a PLAN and some VISION in what the M’s are doing.
Thoughts?
DV
#97…yes Thomas can mash, can hit for average, can walk….the problem is, its very likely most of his walking will be with a cast on his foot…
Watching the lack of interest in Loaiza by the M’s and now hearing reports that they only offered token interest in Giles, I think Bavasi’s plan is slowly starting to be defined.
I think he plans to address the M’s needs by perhaps signing one new arm and then pulling off a couple trades. Next week should be rivoting for M’s fans. I have no idea what Bavasi plans to do with Moyer though Im guessing Moyer will be back.
Current bargains on the roster:
Eddie G.
R. Sexson
R. Ibanez
J. Reed ( a plug and play guy that instantly upgrades your defense and may develop offensively)
Yorvit the C
Probably most of the bullpen (Soriano especially)
Jojometrics indicate that Meche/Franklin/Thornton likely have very little trade value. Pineiro is a catch 22 guy…probably too expensive for most people to take a chance on (i.e. no trade value) but has too much upside to cut lose given the current lack of bodies in the M’s rotation.
Jojometrics however are at a loss for why Meche cant pull it together.
#120 – I was mega-pumped about Kevin Mitchell too. I remember how that awesome M’s outfield of Jay, Jr, and Mitchell was supposed to hit over 100 homers that year. Then he showed up at that ‘92 camp really fat and that was the end of that.
Elarton plain sucks. There’s no reason to sign him for more than 1 year,
“Baseball is unique, in that CHEMISTRY is more important than in any other sport”
This sounds like a “calls a good game” type of claim. Please back this up, because from where I sit, “chemistry” is something to which you attribute success after the fact. If a team was successful, it had “chemistry”. If it wasn’t, it didn’t. And, as I’ve said before, you can’t exactly plan for it in roster construction anyway, unless you just decide to sign “good guys” and hope for the best. We can see where this strategy has gotten the M’s in recent years.
There are plenty of examples of teams where the players reportedly didn’t get along, but won. Give me a few examples of this chemistry you speak of.
I’d argue that baseball requires the least amount of whatever it is. In baseball, each guy is doing his individual job, and isn’t very relieant on teammates. In basketball, it’s all about teamwork, passing, setting picks, rebounding, etc. What you do has a direct impact on the other guys. Look at the 2004-05 Sonics vs the 2005-06 version for a glaring example of chemistry gone wrong.
Huh?
I think that baseball is the sport where “chemistry” has the LEAST importance.
There are clear examples in football (offensive line play, QB/receiver teamwork) and basketball (again, defense, offensive set plays, etc.) where coordination has interaction effects that you can’t derive from individual play alone.
In baseball, it’s the pitcher vs. batter that dominates all. And there are lineup construction efficiencies that have to be considered (to maximize offense and defense simultaneously). But chemistry? I just don’t see it.
Giles’ contract is a steal. I would have gladly paid that for him to be a Mariner.
Konerko is a WARP 4 player who had ONE big year. I don’t think Giles will get back to his WARP 10 level, but he’s WARP 6 or 7 and was better than Konerko last year. Even though he’s five years older, I expect Giles will be better (and paid much less) than Konerko in each of the next two years. Maybe in 2008 when Giles is 37 and Konerko is 32, Konerko will be better.
Does anyone know if the White Sox are raising their payroll significantly? They just added Thome and Konerko at ~$20M next year and the only significant salary cut was Frank Thomas, who I think they still paid $3M NOT to play for them.
#119–”I wonder if this will actually depress some of the pricing on what bats remain in the market?”
no, because everyone can see Giles took fewer years & less money to stay in San Diego, and they will write it off as an exception.
The owners aren’t on crack, their on “profit”. They have the money to toss around and are doing it (especially in Toronto, NY, Baltimore, etc.). As long as they keep raising ticket prices and we keep paying, the teams will have plenty of money to spend like drunken sailors.
Giles is a nice player and given this off season, his contract is probably ok but he wasn’t going to do all that much for Seattle’s needs. He hit 15 homeruns last year and played 11 games in Denver. I think Bavasi would have liked to think he’d get a few more homers for $10 mil. I mean, Ichiro can hit 15 excuse-me-homers and is not considered a “lefthandedbopper” like Bavasi said he was after.
I expect a Millwood/Burnett signing + a trade or two.
No. 132…
To simply call Giles 15-HR hitter, when he’s a pull-hitting lefty in Petco Park, is ridiculous. He’d have hit 25 HRs in Safeco. And I didn’t just make that number up. Check out the percentage of Giles’ extra base hits that were HR compared to anyone else in baseball. Giles is at about 24%. The rest of baseball is at 35-40%… To get to 35-40%, Giles would have had to hit about 10 more HR.
Have you seen a Jays game recently? They haven’t filled SkyDome beyond half-full since 1997.
That said, all that money is newly theirs since they got the government to give them the stadium last winter.
And they’re owned by a media conglomerate…
Ineresting read in this weeks S.I. regarding increased funds to all MLB teams.Apparently 2mil for Satellite radio,10+ mil. for Internet, and an equal split of 450 Mil from the sale of the Expos/Nationals.
All new monies..
The Nationals aren’t sold yet. They may have turned a profit during their DC honeymoon, but they’re still owned by MLB.
#130 – Does anyone know if the White Sox are going to raise their payroll significantly?
Not by more than 5-10, maybe 15 million, which still gives them some breathing room. They have Everett, Thomas, Aaron Rowand, Timo Perez, and Ben Davis coming off the books for a total of 20+ million.
So if they stand pat now, they might even lose payroll, depending on arbitration eligible players like Pierzynski, Garland, and Crede get. Actually, that’s unlikely. But it shouldn’t increase by much.