Back Away From My Betancourt
Recently, I’ve stated that I feel like the most undervalued commodity in baseball currently is defense. I feel that you can build a team that is great at run prevention for less than you can build one that is great at run scoring. I’ve advocated acquiring a number of players for their defensive prowess, and have been against the acquisitions of big name, lead glove sluggers with equally big contracts.
So, this may come as a bit of a surprise, but I think the Mariners are making a mistake by declaring Yuniesky Betancourt off limits in trade talks. I love Betancourt’s glove as much as anyone else. I even wrote a glowing review of his defensive prowess a few months ago. I think it’s fairly clear that Betancourt has all the ability to be an elite defensive player. There’s no doubt that his abilities in the field are special, and finding a player with his skills is rare indeed.
However, let’s be realistic with what we have here.
The best defensive players in the league are approximately 20 to 30 runs above an average defensive player at their position. There are certainly seasons where they save more than 30 runs above average, but those peak seasons don’t appear to be representative of a true talent level, as nobody consistently puts up numbers in that stratosphere. So, if we give Betancourt’s glove full credit for being one of the very best defensive performers in all of baseball, we’ll give him 25 runs above an average shortstop for his work with the leather.
Now, we get to his offense. He didn’t embarrass himself in Seattle, but he certainly wasn’t an offensive force, either. His .256/.296/.370 mark would project to be about 12 runs below what an average shortstop in Safeco Field would put up over the course of a full season. If we assume that his bat will improve a bit, say, to .270/.310/.390, he’d be about 6 to 8 runs below average over the course of the year.
So, next year, we’re looking at the possibility of Betancourt being worth something like 15-20 runs above what an average shortstop would put up if we assume that he’s the best defensive shortstop in baseball. That’s a valuable player, no doubt. A 23-year-old shortstop who is above average and signed to a low-value contract for the next 3 years? I’ll take two, please.
But why, exactly, is Yuniesky Betancourt untouchable? Here’s a few infielders who were approximately 25 runs above average at their positions in 2005:
Rafael Furcal
Chase Utley
Julio Lugo
Mark Ellis
Placido Polanco
Good players, all. But if that’s Betancourt’s ceiling, and we have to acknowledge that there’s a significant possibility that he won’t fulfill every inch of his potential, don’t we have to look at ourselves and wonder if this is the type of player that we cannot afford to part with. Even if Betancourt turns into the next Rafael Furcal (which, I’d say, there’s about a 5 percent chance of), that’s a borderline all-star, a good player that you’d like to have but certainly not the best player on a championship club.
Betancourt is a good player at a position the M’s need a good player. But if Arizona comes calling with a package of Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson (they won’t), you better believe I’m saying yes before they can change their minds.
I’m glad Betancourt’s a Mariner. But I can’t say I’m thrilled that the organization considers him to be off-limits in any trade discussion.
Comments
116 Responses to “Back Away From My Betancourt”
I have no problem with him being off-limits for now, while he is still cheap. You hope his bat develops in the next few years, and then flip him when his value to other teams has increased along with his cost to the Mariners. By that time we’ll have other options in the minors (like Cabrera) ready to step in at the Major League level.
Besides, Yuniesky is currently one reason to watch next year’s team. He’ll probably provide 5-7 highlight reel plays per week.
Wow, deviating from Mike Cameron defense worship. The teams I see in the playoffs have a truckload of boppers and, in the case of the Yankees, wretched defense. I guess the Maury Wills defense Dodgers of the 60′s have their appeal — I liked the underachiever Alex,Edgar, Griffey, Buhner Mariner teams of the 90′s better. And who cares about economics? The M’s are the most profitable team in baseball.
Perhaps the M’s are just posturing in the press to inflate his value. Not that they’re trying to dump him but perhaps they realize that they don’t have a lot of valuable chips to bargain with in trade talks and by saying Betancourt is untouchable just makes other teams think he’s even better than he really is.
Wow, deviating from Mike Cameron defense worship.
If the M’s had ever declared Cameron untradeable, I would have written the same thing.
The teams I see in the playoffs have a truckload of boppers and, in the case of the Yankees, wretched defense.
You don’t watch much playoff baseball, do you?
This year, the top defensive teams in baseball were the White Sox, Indians, Braves, A’s, Phillies, and Angels. Want to check their combined records?
The worst defensive teams? The Royals, Reds, Yankees (the exception), Rangers, and Padres.
The M’s are the most profitable team in baseball.
Umm, no.
I think that the M’s should definitely hang onto him because there is no real back-up that can produce any better and they can give him a full season next year to see if he can pick up the pace with his bat. Shortstop can be a huge hole and it’s the one position I would pick defense over offense any day. Plus he’s practically free…for now.
I’m in the keeping hands off Yuniesky camp. I thought that he hadn’t played for a year(?) after leaving Cuba so the offensive rhythm is likely to come back with more playing time. Combining that with his defense makes a potent package. You don’t want to trade and risk underselling him before you get an idea of what he will be able to do. Also, he is cheap and we don’t really have anyone to step into his place. So, keep him as untradable for now and build up the mystic.
But it sure must make him feel good to be held by the front office in the same league as King Felix and Ichiro!
Isn’t the larger point that there’s no real benefit to declaring any player off limits? Or am I misreading this?
I’d be VERY reluctant to trade him. But to get something good you’ve got to give something good. We’re not going to fill any significant holes by trading the likes of Piniero, Meche, Franklin etc. (unless Woody Woodward or Syd Thrift get a new job) so, as Dave says, if Bavasi gets a significant offer that includes Betencourt I wouldn’t automatically rule it out because he’s been inflexibly declared “untouchable.”
While I agree with the general principle that it makes no sense to declare any player “off limits”, doesn’t it seem exceedingly unlikely that a team will offer the Ms good trade offer for Betancourt? Defense is undervalued, not overvalued, in the market, so who’s going to give up something good for him? I think this type of argument works better if you’re talking about players like Sexson and Ibanez, or even Lopez, who aren’t contributing a lot defensively and might be overvalued by a trade partner.
If someone’s the clearly the best player in baseball at their position, and you want to keep them happy because you’re building your team around him, I think it’s reasonable to declare him off limits for trades. Betancourt’s not that kind of guy, though. Some guys are good enough though, that there aren’t any practical or realistic trades that can be made with him that would actually improve the team’s value.
I think the point Dave is making is that YB is not going to be an annual All-Star, even at his peak – so to declare him off limits is absurd in a context of a sellers free agent market and a team that has multiple needs and wants…
Dave:
Great post. While defense at shortstop is at a premium, it’s definitely not irreplaceable, whether directly at that position, or heavily improving other positions to make up for the loss of defense.
I’m okay with the M’s saying via their media mouthpieces that he’s untouchable; it demonstrates a commitment to the team’s young talent. But the “unofficial” stance needs to be “we’ll talk, but don’t waste our time with crappy offers”.
I almost always agree with the folks here at USS Mariner, however this time, I’m going to side with the FO.
Yubet is great at D, but I don’t think that is why they are hanging on to him. I think and may be they think he will become a better hitter, maybe not a HR machine, but a great double/triple guy with 25 or so HRs. And look at his speed with more coaching he could steal a lot of bases.
Let’s look at what KGJ, A-rod, and Jeter put up their rookie years.
AVE OBP SLG
KGJ .264 .329 .420
A-ROD .232 .264 .408 (his 2nd Year)
Jeter .250 .294 .375
Yubet .256 .296 .370
Not much difference there. But he does provide more speed and better D, than all of these guys. Give him time.
I think this is a ploy from Bavasi to try and get teams to turn their head and actually look at our prospects besides Felix and Yuniesky… It’s obvious that Felix is untouchable…. I wasn’t really surprised about Yuniesky being untouchable, so what exactly is the point of announcing it on top of Mt. Everest and yelling it out?
1. It gets the Mariners a little attention before the Winter Meetings, it’s a big fat sign that says, HEY LOOK AT US!
2. Maybe Bavasi is really getting irritated when other teams ask for Felix and Yuniesky.
3. Teams are now forced to look at other players OTHER than the one’s they drool on in their sleep.
I don’t want to sound like “Stand Pat” here. But this team has tons of holes to fill. Let’s leave shortshop alone for now. Maybe declaring him untouchable will inflate his value until a replacement prospect comes along. But let’s not jump the gun here. We have right field, the bullpen, first and third nailed down. We probably have center field, second base and catcher nailed down (after using SEVEN last year SEVEN!). We still need a DH, left fielder and starting rotation. Let’s not blow another huge Wilson Valdez-sized hole in our infield just yet. Untouchable? For now, if only because we have other issues to address.
I would have expected that the difference between average defense and top tier defense would vary alot depending on position. Is that really not the case?
I agree that in general it never hurts to listen to offers for any player.
#13, Pay-Rod was only 20 when he put up those numbers. Jeter was 21. I’m not sure who KGJ is, I have a cold and my brain isn’t working.
The only players I would actually consider to be untouchable are Felix and Ichiro!.
And with Ichiro!, it’s because of his status as the popular public face of the franchise and because of his work ethic and personality. Yes, his actual talent is also exceptional, but it’s these things that put him in the untouchable category for me.
I’d be leery of offers on Beltre at this point also, because I think he still will bounce back to be an elite player, and there’s no way with the season he had last year that you’d get equivalent value back for him. But the right offer, that isn’t based on his poor 2005? You bet I’m listening.
I don’t think there’s anything as an “untouchable” player. Someone comes along with the right package for Ichiro or Felix, yeah, I trade them too.
That being said, “the right package” rarely comes along for players like that.
And I would be curious as to why Jose Lopez is less “untouchable” than Betancourt, except I know that the organization’s decided on favorites, and Betancourt is one and Lopez isn’t. I think it’s very reasonable to assume Lopez might have more upside than Betancourt. (I will pre-emptively state that the fact that Lopez hasn’t hit well in his first few hundred major league at-bats at age 21 or earlier doesn’t change my thinking. It wouldn’t take me very long to find examples of very good players who you could also say that for. The fact that Lopez is able to do as well as he does at 21 IS the reason he has growth potential.)
I think the M’s think YB’s bat is going to develop more than some of the other folks around here do. If YB turns into a .290 hitting doubles-and-triples machine (which is a possibility), then his offensive value starts to look league average, and he becomes one helluva player for cheap. (I don’t believe for a second that YB is ever going to draw many walks.)
Basically, I would guess he’d need to hit like Tony Fernandez to be that kind of hitter:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fernato01.shtml
That’s a pretty high ceiling.
I agree with #4 on Betancout.
I think the M’s would trade him if they got a deal they couldn’t turn down (Jackson/Drew from AZ or something close to that level of talent in return). By declaring him untouchable to other GMs it tells them that if they want to bring up YB’s name in a trade discussion, they’d better bring the goods (or don’t bother).
However, while it’s perfectly fine to tell other clubs that Betancourt is off-limits, I’m wondering what Bavasi gains by putting it out there in the press. Declaring a player an untouchable through the media can make for a PR nightmare once the untouchable becomes touchable (Jose Cruz, Jr. was declared untouchable by Woody Woodward less than a month before the July 31, 1977 trade to the Blue Jays).
Oh and Furcal comes out as a comp for Fernandez at the same age.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/furcara02.shtml
If that’s what the M’s FO thinks Betancourt will turn out as, they must have a different percentage in mind than Dave’s 5%.
Note that Fernandez and Furcal both had better years at 23 than Betancourt did- but they also weren’t stuck in Cuba before their first season in pro ball at age 23.
uh, 1997, not 1977…
Hey, Dave, while I’m at it, here’s a question- if Betancourt’s upper range of development is a slim chance to be in the Rafael Furcal/Tony Fernandez class of SS (All-Star with good offense, but not HOF class), what’s the most likely possibility? Somewhere in the Cristian Guzman-Ozzie Guillen-Alfredo Griffin range of nice glove, not so good bat?
What exactly is the point of declaring anyone “untouchable”? Is it to send a message to the fans? The players? Other teams? All of the above? Some of the above? Frankly, I can’t see much point in it, unless someone has demanded to know their status, and even then, why go to the press with it? Do the M’s really want to discourage other teams from inquiring? If that’s all it is, I think it’s a big mistake. So I’m left thinking they can’t be that stupid, and what they’re really trying to do is drive up other teams’ opinions of their players. And if that’s what it is, then the focus is on Betancourt. Ichiro’s a known commodity, and Felix is obviously one of the best prospects in baseball. Betancourt, on the other hand, looks great in the field but is a question mark offensively. So it seems to me that the most likely reason for this strategy is to drive up his value in the eyes of the other teams by grouping him with Ichiro and Felix. And if that’s what their trying to do, it might not be a bad strategy. Any other explanation would put me in Dave’s camp—that it’s the wrong thing to do.
26- Or they could be saying in an underhanded sort of way that Lopez and Reed (among others) are available. Or maybe Bavasi is tired of taking calls asking about Felix…
If nothing else, this org’s hip deep in shortstop prospects, so it’s not as if there’s nothing coming up behind Betancourt. I’m of the opinion that no position player on a 90-loss team is untouchable. Pitchers are a slightly different story.
I’m curious what we (or the FO) really know about Yubet other than he is a very good fielder. It seems that 200 at bats is not much to judge his offensive potential or likely progression. Do we know much about his offensive output in Cuba? And if we have that information, do we know how that extrapolates to likely big league performance. I agree that the problem with labelling Yubet untouchable is that it hypes expectations.
Declaring Yubet untouchable also seems strange since before Clement, the Mariners went thru a long spell where they seemed to draft almost no position players other than SSs. As a result, they appear to have more players for that position than any other (Jones, Cabrera, Garriaparra, Morse, Tui, and Lopez was a SS…). A lot of these guys will likely move to other positions, but still, you’d think Morse could fill in pretty capably if we got an irresistable offer for Yubet, at least til Cabrera is ready. It sometimes seems that our problem is that what we’ve been getting in the draft are players not quite good enough in the field to be strong defensive SSs, but lacking a big enough stick to succeed at any other position (eg Morse again).
Do we know much about his offensive output in Cuba? And if we have that information, do we know how that extrapolates to likely big league performance.
Not much and Cuban-league translations are really, really unreliable, for a variety of reasons that are too complicated to address here.
and FWIW, the PI does not say that Bavasi announced anyone was ‘untouchable’– what Morosi wrote was that “sources inside and outside the organization have confirmed that the three players are unobtainable” I’m just guessing that if someone came to them with a really really nice pitcher for JuBetcha, he might become less unobtainable.
With the free agent market as crazy as it is and with the mariners unwilling to save money from year to year, it seems to me that their best option would be to improve via trade. Assume the mariners have 20 million or so available in the budget next year, wouldn’t it be better to get a declining star for one or two years at 8-10 million rather than the mediocrity that’s out there this year for the same price? I for one would be much happier with matt clement and his contract than burnett for five years.
Did/is Betancourt playing winterball this year?
Besides, every team needs a 9 hole hitter.
Bettie is untouchable….ironic since he’ll soon be nicknamed the glove.
He already is the answer to shortstop with a ton of potential to grow. Contrary to what some have said….finding the answer at shortstop is NOT that easy. Last year Boston and the Angels had to each pay around 40 million to get their answers. Furcal may be the answer for the Cubs this year-to the tune of 50 million! Clearly Bettie has been tagged untouchable because the M’s believe he is part of their foundation. His potential upside is HUGE.
#13: OK, I give up. Who’s KGJ?
Hey, Dave, while I’m at it, here’s a question- if Betancourt’s upper range of development is a slim chance to be in the Rafael Furcal/Tony Fernandez class of SS (All-Star with good offense, but not HOF class), what’s the most likely possibility? Somewhere in the Cristian Guzman-Ozzie Guillen-Alfredo Griffin range of nice glove, not so good bat?
My favorite comparison is the 2004 version of Cesar Izturis. His SLG could be higher because he’s fast enough to turn more doubles into triples, but the overall offensive attack will probably be about the same.
But, yea, there’s a pretty big range of possibilities here. Guzman or Izturis is probably what we’re looking at, offensively, with the absolute upside of turning into a Vizquel or Furcal at the plate, and the downside of being the new Pokey Reese.
If I had to guess, I’d say Peak Betancourt is probably a .280/.330/.400 guy.
All I can say is that at the end of last season, their were only three players that got me to go to Safeco, and when Felix wasn’t pitching it was just Ichiro and Betancourt. In fact a couple of times I got up to stretch my legs / get food when the Mariners were at bat, because the only potential excitement was M’s fielding. And since Felix doesn’t last nine innings, and Ichiro isn’t climbing walls or throwing out guys at 3rd every night, the only reliable entertainment in what seemed like every inning was watching batted balls become Betancourt’s bitches.
That said, the team needs to consider every option to make itself better. But Betancourt is worth more than his numbers suggest, so those options have to be pretty damn good.
How much stock can we really put in these offseason declarations? I highly doubt bavasi would turn down conor jackson and stephen drew either. I bavasi is willing to trade Betancourt, wouldn’t this be a great way of increasing his value?
Dave, If you acknowledge that teams aren’t going to be offering Stephen Drew/Connor Jackson type packages……then what’s the point of making him not “untouchable” because teams are just going to come asking if they can have him for cheap.
I agree that teams saying players are “untouchable” isn’t a good policy, per say…..but if you realize teams aren’t going to offer you what it would take to make you consider trading him…….why not save everyone some time and just say…….”he’s not available, so lets talk about what is available based upon what you are offering”.
Nobody is every really off limits. When the front office says that it is always posturing. Ichiro is offlimits until somebody comes in and makes an offer that is stupid to turn down (In a drunken moment the Cardinals call up offering Pujol’s for Ichiro).
I remember when the M’s said that Jose Cruz was untouchable and traded him a few weeks later.
I like your basic idea. No one’s job is safe when the company is failing.
However, Betancourt, Felix, Ichiro, and Johjima are the major reasons I’ll be watching this team next year.
# 36 Ken Griffey Jr.
All I was saying is some of the greatest players in baseball had some pretty poor numbers thier first year, and none of them had to ride in a raft to do it.
Everyone should stop the forever 9 hole stuff. Give the guy a chance.
KGJ = Ken Griffey Jr.
The rotoworld.com Mariner-specific rumor-insights of the day:
The Rockies offered Larry Bigbie to the Mariners for Yorvit Torrealba and the Indians for Josh Bard, but neither club seems interested right now.
The Mariners want pitching in return for Torrealba. The Indians are holding out for Ryan Shealy, which isn’t happening. According to the Denver Post, the Rockies also have an offer out for Cubs reliever Todd Wellemeyer. Bigbie might be involved there, too.
The Mariners are interested in reacquiring left-hander Ron Villone from the Marlins.
Seattle gave up Villone for right-handers Yorman Bazardo and Mike Flannery at the trade deadline. They probably wouldn’t part with Bazardo to bring him back, but they have other young arms to trade.
I’d pull the trigger on Yorvit for Bigbie in a second, but it seems I’ve been the lead conductor on that train for several days now. Bringing Villone back, I say why? Unless to be a starter, he’s fared well there in the past.
I’m also excited to watch Sexson launch the ball into the upper deck, and to see whether any of our young players (Reed, Lopez) will improve next yr
I think the starting lineup will be descent, if not spectacular, and I’m excited about it the way it is, and I hope they don’t change it unless there is some obviously advantageous offer out there.
Now, if we can just fix the starting rotation… Because I’m not too optimistic about it…
When evaluating these things, you need to keep in mind that the value of a player to the organization he plays for is greater (or, in some cases, less) than what he brings to the field. You mention that Betancourt is the sort of defensive whiz who gets on highlight reels. That right there is why he’s so valuable to the club: he gets on television, people see what he can do, and some of them decide to buy tickets because they’d like to see the guy in person. Highlight reel plays might not win you games, but they raise the excitement level among casual fans. As a shortstop, Betancourt has a fairly quantifiable value — he’s good, but not great. As a marketing asset, though, his value is much higher.
It seems that 200 at bats is not much to judge his offensive potential or likely progression.
His minor league stats give him a full season in pro ball. Basically, he’s your standard-issue Latin SS: some speed (sometimes this doesn’t show up in the SB%, however), good glove, didn’t walk off the island, but might learn he’s not on an island any more…
Note that Guillen/Griffin have won Gold Gloves, BTW. YuBet seems to have a bit more power than Guillen and Griffin did, though, so Guzman’s the closer comp (Izturis + a bit of power works too).
I’m not sure Furcal’s a good comp, now that I look again- he walked 73 times as a rookie. Omar didn’t really have much 2B/3B power AT ALL as a young player- like Ozzie Smith, he added elements to his offensive game as he went along. I’d say somewhere in the continuum of Pokey Reese (low)/Cristian Guzman-Cesar Izturis (middle)/Tony Fernandez (high) is about right…
# 36 Ken Griffey Jr.
All I was saying is some of the greatest players in baseball had some pretty poor numbers thier first year, and none of them had to ride in a raft to do it.
You’re comparing a nineteen year old rookie (Griffey), a nineteen year old sophomore (A-Rod), and a twenty-one year old (Jeter) to a twenty-three year old (YuBet). That’s a rather serious problem in your analysis.
The odds are very much against Betancourt even coming close to those 3 players in peak value. Imagine what those 3 players would have done at AA/AAA ball at age 23. YuBet wasn’t sucking in San Antonio or Tacoma, but he wasn’t treating the league like he was batting off a tee either- and any of those players you mentioned would have been All-Universe against AA or AAA competition at age 23, considering what all 3 did in the MAJORS at that age- A-Rod and Griffey were 40+ HR hitters by that point, and Jeter hit over .300 with a .370 OBP his age 22 and 23 years combined.
That doesn’t mean I think YuBet’s a bad player- but HOF caliber players of the type you just mentioned are usually outstanding by the time they turn 23. YuBet isn’t. It’s not unprecedented to add on to your offensive game as a middle infielder (as I said previously, Omar and Ozzie did this), but he’s not even close to being in their class as a player yet.
Bavasi could just be protecting his gem that he scored from Cuba. He’s obviously been high on Betancourt since he signed him, wants to see him flourish in a Mariners uniform just to make himself look good.
Ozzie’s an intriguing comparison, and you have to wonder if that’s what the M’s are thinking when they look at WhyBee. Awesome glove (which he’s got), a live stick, and maybe a chance to pick up some more offensive skills.
Ozzie became a major-league average offensive player by adding a good batting eye and tremendous basestealing skills to an otherwise mediocre offensive set. YB’s got the speed to do that. The rest? It’s kind of a longshot.
I assume you mean Ozzie Smith. Ozzie Guillen was never close to average with the bat.
Ozzie Smith would be nice. He was average or better (with the bat) from 29 through 37.
eponymous coward,
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not predicting that he is going to be 40 hr guy. I’m just saying give him a chance. People can’t sideline him based solely on his rookie year.
Also I’m guessing if he was in the states or in a country where he could’ve been noticed soon everyone would think much higher of him.
In defense of Betancourt being untouchable he is possibly the best athlete on the team. He has great speed, agility, body control, a gun and range defensively. He’s an aggressive line drive hitter and that makes me think he’s got the possibility to be an offensive presence. He didn’t play at all last year and hasn’t been Pro-Am but 8 months. He showed very well last year considering that. Should I list a few line drive hitters who were considered to ‘have little pop’ but developed it. I guess with the steroid scrutiny there’s no way to tell, but Edgar was one of those and he was never considered great defensively nor did he approach the speed or agility. Many of the leagues 15-30 homer guys were considered aggressive line drive hitters with little pop and good body control coming up.
I would normally think that Bigbie would be a decent stop-gap for LF except that there are at least 3 outfielders in the system that are on the doorstep and I’d say we gave up more for Torrealba than that. I’d rather trade him back for Winn (as long as we can keep Foppert). The outfield may be the place the M’s are most stocked at in the minors.
http://mariners.scout.com/2/471612.html :
Organizational Position Rankings
No. 1 – Outfield
————————-
From Triple-A to the complex leagues in Arizona, The Mariners have some solid outfield depth. With top talents of Choo and Snelling to the raw tools of Michael Saunders and Oswaldo Graterol. There could be as many as six potential big-league outfielders scattered throughout the organization.
#4
I guess I don’t watch enough baseball. I don’t remember the A’s, Phillies or Indians making the playoffs. And the Angels, oh well.
“The small-market Mariners have been baseball’s most profitable team the past five years. Part of their success is making sure no one knows it.”
–Forbes Magazine 04.25.05
Um, who would dare argue with USSM?
Speaking of Foppert, when do you think he’ll be ready for the major leagues again? Do you think that maybe the M’s give him a shot in the roation if they are unable to sign any free agents (Morris, Washburn anybody)?
Also I’m guessing if he was in the states or in a country where he could’ve been noticed soon everyone would think much higher of him.
I think you’re missing my point- I’m not sidelining him, but his performance isn’t THAT impressive at age 23. Some very comparable players (Guzman, Izturis) were cranking out similar or better MLB numbers at comparable ages. If YuBet’s going to be something special instead of a guy who’s a decent player like those two guys, he’ll need to get better, by a lot. It’s not a guarantee.
Bringing Villone back, I say why? Unless to be a starter, he’s fared well there in the past.
Uhhh, no he hasn’t. Here are some 3 year splits on Villone (02-04):
As starter: ERA 4.57, BAA .248, 23 HR in 160.2 IP
As reliever: ERA 3.52, BAA .218, 9 HR in 128 IP
I suspect a large part of that difference is that he faces more lefthanders as a reliever, and he’s very tough on lefties (vs RHB OPS against is 738, vs LHB it is 654 and in 05 it was 580). But when he goes over 60 pitches his OPS against is 891 over the past 4 seasons.
I’d sure rather have Villone than Thornton. Another lefthander in the pen isn’t really something the M’s need, though, with Eddie and Sherrill already set in the pen.
Villone’s value now is as a reliever. I don’t know why you’d give up a good prospect to get a third lefty for your pen.
He didn’t play at all last year and hasn’t been Pro-Am but 8 months. He showed very well last year considering that. Should I list a few line drive hitters who were considered to ‘have little pop’ but developed it. I guess with the steroid scrutiny there’s no way to tell, but Edgar was one of those and he was never considered great defensively nor did he approach the speed or agility. Many of the leagues 15-30 homer guys were considered aggressive line drive hitters with little pop and good body control coming up.
Edgar to YuBet’s really not a good comparison. YuBet had a grand total of 26 walks in all his pro at-bats last year (majors+minors). Edgar drew 18 walks as a 20 year old rookie in about 125 AB’s, and while his batting average was low in Chattanooga at age 23, he had a .390 OBP.
Could Betancourt turn into Jay Bell? Sure, I guess so. The list of guys who develop real power without walks while keeping a high average is pretty short, though- basically, for the majors right now it’s Garrett Anderson. More often, you end up with Tony Batista.
My suspicion is the M’s are seeing the cost of pitching and freaking out- and think Villone would be a decent option at #5 while they vamp for time (minor league success, and so on).
I think they are wrong (based on the splits Ralph Malph just showed), but there is some logic to it.
On the age thing. It’s not like he had been setting in the minors for ever. I think we need to think about it in terms of how long he’s been playing in the US.
I say again, you have to remember he played in Cuba, then road a raft to mexico played there for a short time then jumped through the minors. Then put up some ok rookie numbers. It’s not he was not good cuba, he was noticed in cuba.
That is, It’s not like he was not good in cuba, it more like he was not noticed in cuba.
Maybe they mean off limits in any trade that another team would realistically offer. Of course you can think up trades that the Mariner’s would be stupid not to go for, but as you said yourself, the other teams won’t
Things indeed look bleak at this point. Free agents that are better than the players we have are all insanely over-priced. It looks like trades are our only hope, and it is hard to upgrade an overall team unless you and your partner both have a surplus of talent at one position. In the M’s case, I can’t think what that position would be. I guess the other hope is to hoodwink somebody into giving you something that was better than you gave up. The M’s were the victim of that for years. If only the Yankees would hire Woody Woodward.
8. My previous post was made before reading yours. You said it better.
65. The only position of strength for the M’s at the major league level is Relief Pitching. They pretty much have a full pen with no extra’s, but the step down to the next prospect may not be as much as the upgrade you get in the trade.
And relief piching is the one thing that’s truly been overpriced on the market, so this could be a great situation for trade possibilities.
Re #48 I’m not sure even a full year of pro ball, with all of the adjustments he had to make, is enough to decide YuBet’s just a generic Latin player. First of all, I don’t think there is such a thing, and second, I think it’s hard to know what level of preparation he received in Cuba. He hit even better in AAA than in AA. He fell off some at the majors, but that’s a hell of a lot of transition to make all in one year.
Re #49, and the suggestion that great players are usually great by age 23, I’m certain that’s frequently true, but it seems one should look at what training and advantages they had early in their careers. I don’t think there’s any chance YuBet will ever be compared to a Griffey or Arod or even Jeter, but I’ll bet those players faced consistently better competition from ages 19 to 22, and that experience likely enhanced their development early. If you look back at Miquel Tejada at age 22 and 23 he hadn’t yet blossomed:
Age 22 365 ABs .233/.298/.384
Age 23 593 ABs .251/.325/.427
I’m not suggesting YuBet is likely to develop the power that Miggie did, or become a HOF, or even become a good on-base guy, but at his reported weight, it appears YuBet has some muscle. And you’d think that coming from Cuba would be a difficult transition in multiple ways, which likely has delayed his development somewhat. Given that background, I’m skeptical that you can know his upside based upon one season playing in the States.
Villone at #5 will make everyone wish Ryan Franklin was still around.
Bringing Villone back makes it a little easier to deal Eddie G. I’d be perfectly happy with a pen of:
Mateo
Putz
Soriano
Thornton
Sherril
Villone
With whatever else falls of the scrap heap (ie Meche, Atchison, etc…)
Maybe Eddie G and Franklin to San Diego for Ryan Klesko…
Klesko’s 3yr #’s .263 .370 .440 .810
Get rid of: Eddie, Frankie, Baek
Acquire: Klesko, Villone
Go get ‘um Bill!
Hmmmm….. Yorvit for Ryan Shealy? Surely thats a joke?
Klesko?! That would be a disaster in a can.
BTW, joebob suggested above dealing for Matt Clement — I don’t know if it could happen, but I’d love to see it. (Not least because we’d get a CleMENT – CLEMent battery . . .)
Gack! Just say no to Klesko!
Klesko in Seattle sounds like a rerun of the last couple years of John Olerud’s career here, where he was basically good for hitting singles and the occasional double off right handed pitching and very little else.
Jaque Jones 3yr avg’s = .268 .322 .443 .765
Ryan Klesko 3yr avg’s = .263 .370 .440 .810
Jeromy Burnitz 3yr avg= .261 .327 .492 .819
Personally, I’d take the guy in the middle with the higher OBP, playing in a terrible hitters park. Also, a guy that hit, with 100 less ab’s, more HR’s than Brian Giles.
Just trying to stir the pot…!
He hit even better in AAA than in AA.
Welcome to Small Sample Size Theatre! I’ll be your host tonight…
I don’t think there’s any chance YuBet will ever be compared to a Griffey or Arod or even Jeter, but I’ll bet those players faced consistently better competition from ages 19 to 22, and that experience likely enhanced their development early
Let’s pretend that YuBet was, instead of a Cuban emigre, a first round draft choice in 2004 who had gone to a NCAA Division I-AA school, with exactly the same minor and major league stats so far. After all, it’s not like the guy was playing T-Ball with kindergartners in Cuba- he was simply playing ball someplace where we don’t have a good understanding of how his stats would translate (or any of his stats at all).
Would anyone be mentioning him in the same breath with Miguel Tejada, Derek Jeter or A-Rod? I don’t think so. My argument is that, based on the skillset we’ve seen SO FAR, we have a guy who doesn’t take walks, good speed, has some extra base power but not great HR power, great glove. There are a ton of major league SS’s from just San Pedro de Macoris in the DR who basically fit this template- NOT including the ones from Venezuela or elsewhere in the Caribbean.
And if YuBet turns out to be Tony Fernandez (who seems, right now, to be the best comp on his high end), he’d be a pretty good SS- multiple All-Star selections and Gold Gloves, 2000 major league hits. It’s harder to get to the HOF with those numbers now that sluggers play SS, but that’s a damn fine player.
74 – What you don’t see here is the defensive presence. Jones also has the ability to steal a base now and then, or go from 1st to 3rd on a hit to right field, etc.
Also, Jeromy Brunitz spent 2004 playing half his games at 6000 feet above sea level. So his 3 year comps are, shall we say, a little bit affected by that.
His OPS’s as a percentage of league his last 3 NON-Rockies years were:
83
104
96
And he’s going to be 37 next year.
Pass.
Doesn’t Klesko make like 10 million? Whichever GM signed that contract should have his right arm taken.
Yes, it is self-evident that every player can be had for a price, so skip saying that. It simply makes no sense to have YuBet in play in trade discussions, because otherwise every team will waste their time trying to get him for cheap. Just make it easier for everybody and say don’t bother. To do anything else would be counterproductive. This whole thread proves we don’t have enough real news to talk about.
I think Klesko is due $9m for the next two years…they would definately have to eat some salary, including Eddie’s $6m.
77- Yep, I agree, Klesko over Burnitz was my point (not considering any finacial details).
It’s funny how “not untouchable” has turned into “sucks”.
Nobody’s untouchable. I’d trade Ichiro in a heartbeat for the right package, and I’d even listen to offers for Felix that started off, “this is going to sound crazy, but…”. Pujols, Carpenter, Rolen, and Mulder for Felix? Hell, yeah.
More realistically, as long as Yuni isn’t the best player in baseball there’s a straight-up swap available for him. Lots of them. And all kinds of packages: Yuni + Pineiro for…
Hell yeah. I want to win some goddamn games next year.
My reaction to Burnitz is the same as my reaction to Klesko.
I think Klesko has a no-trade clause and, IIRC, he’s threatened to invoke it in the past. I doubt he’s coming to Seattle.
don’t know where to post this, but Ichiro had said yes (confirmed by his agent.) to play on World Cup next March, while Jojima had declined.
I thought Betancourt was taking more walks at the end of the year, because he was getting more movement into his bat or something w/ the advice of Baylor. I thought I heard, or saw that somewhere. Sorry about the unsure info
Is there any shortstop in MLB you’d rather have than Betancourt? I think Jhonny Peralta is it.
(Of course, I’m considering salary)
IIRC…
A few years ago, an old man whom some considered baseball had “passed by”, declared Felix Hernandez and Jose Lopez among the Mariners’ untradables, whom I believe were Clint Nageotte and Travis Blackley.
At the time, everyone scratched their heads. Felix was no where near spelling ‘Phenom’ or ‘King’ and Lopez was a kid in A/AA putting up numbers with little recognition.
Years later, the old men have proven to be right part of the time. Felix is the definition of “best pitching prospect”. Lopez’s age 27 FDTs in 2004 rated only behind David Wright and BJ Upton and in both 2004 and 2005 he performed well at age 20 and 21 as the 900 OPS number 4 hitter of Rainiers (of which Chaney PFs in the low 900s).
Though the jury is still technically out on both players, they haven’t exactly failed either. And it’s why I’m willing to let the M’s decide on Betancourt, and not the rest of us.
Regarding the seeming organizational dislike of Lopez… I think it’s a Bavasi thing.
More Rotoworld.com talks:
Kevin Millwood has emerged as the Mariners’ No. 1 target in free agency, according to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer
The market for Millwood is sure to heat up after A.J. Burnett signs. It’s believed that the soon-to-be 31-year-old is seeking a five-year, $50 million contract. $40 million for four years might be realistic.
Along with Ron Villone, Juan Pierre is a target in the Mariners’ trade talks with the Marlins.
We assume that any Pierre deal would include Jeremy Reed going the other way, as there wouldn’t be any room for him in the Seattle outfield with Pierre in center. Considering that Reed is a better defender than Pierre and will probably be the better hitter of the two by 2007, the Mariners should stand pat.
Also, Masao Kida is heading back to Japan.
the PI piece indicates its the Boras/Bavasi ability to deal that may lead to Millwood (fingerscrossedwhichmakesithardtotype)
All of this talk about Bettie being untouchable has got me thinking about double play combinations…
I think Nomar Garciaparra would look fine playing second base in a Mariners uniform. He played third last year so he’s game to move positions. What better role model to tutor Bettie? Instant offensive and defensive upgrade at second. He could be a bargain this off season too…
Why should we give up on a 22 year old player who is YOUNGER than Betancourt, for an expensive player on the decline with an injury history?
I don’t get it. Really, there isn’t any reason to think Betancourt >>>> Lopez as a prospect. Lopez could easily end up with the better career, even IF Betancourt turns out pretty good. Or it could be the other way. We’ll have a better idea in a couple of years.
Its simple, NG is proven and likely relatively cheap. Why wait a couple of years? Let Lopez develop in Tacoma.
Hold on: I was just thinking that the M’s should consider signing Garciaperra, but NOT to play second. Considering his size and injury history, I think he’s slated for the corner outfield/first base/DH positins from here on out. I’ve heard Cleveland is thinking about signing him to play right field, in fact. Would he fit as a Plan B (or Plan G) for left field, if Jacque Jones slips through our fingers?
Why doesn’t baseball-reference.com have “similar batters” listed for Betancourt?
Is it because he’s only been in the majors one year, or is it because they haven’t gotten around to it yet?
The similar batters is a fun toy, and I was thinking it might be interesting in light of this conversation.
It’d probably be next to useless, considering YuBet has about 600 pro ABs total including MLB.
You couldn’t make a reasonable projection, let alone guess a similar player by numbers, with that sort of resume.
Nomar? There’s another veteran 2B available (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2002659035_chat02.html):
When it comes to Las Vegas vacations, Clark Griswold reportedly has nothing on Bret Boone.
“Spies tell me a tipsy Boone rolled his golf cart Monday while playing on the Wynn’s $500-a-round high-roller golf course,” wrote Norm Clarke of the former M’s second baseman in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “Later, he created a scene in the bar at the Wynn’s Country Club Grill. “Security was called when Boone, 36, got testy with Wynn staffers after they asked him to remove his feet from the bar in an area where patrons were dining.
” ‘Make me!’ replied Boone, among other choice words.
“When Boone fell off his bar stool and hit the floor, friends removed him from the bar before security arrived.”
On the bright side, though, Boonie and the word “hit” appeared in the same sentence for the first time since July 30.
Its simple, NG is proven and likely relatively cheap. Why wait a couple of years? Let Lopez develop in Tacoma.
Nomar is “proven” to have an injury history a mile long and is “proven” to be on the decline from his 1999-2000 peak numbers. You’d think that after Cirillo, Aurilia and Boone we might learn something, and quit expecting players after 30 to turn back the clock when their numbers start fading.
To put it another way, Nomar had a line last year of .283/.320/.452. Pretending he had stayed healthy, he would have posted triple crown numbers of .283/24/80 (prorated 2005 stats to 650 plate appearances). There’s no reason Jose Lopez couldn’t post a line like that next year- it’s well within what he’s showed in the minors and his grwoth potential. So please explain to me why I should pay $millions to Nomar for that line instead, especially since he can’t stay healthy?
Players don’t develop in AAA.
Especially if they’re already 900 OPS number 4 batters in a pitcher’s park in the said league
You’ve got to give Lopez and any prospect some time in the bigs to develop, or you’ll be discarding a lot of players way before they’ve met potential.
Needlessly blocking positions on a team is a good way to do that.
Uuh, he wasn’t a .900 OPS batter- his lifetime AAA OPS is around .850.
That being said, Jose Lopez’s combined major/minor numbers the last two years compare reasonably well to the following players at the same ages (20-21):
Nomar Garciaparra
Derek Jeter
Aramis Ramirez
I’m not saying Lopez will turn into this type of player, mind you- just that the potential is CLEARLY there from his stats. He could wash out. He could blow his knee out 31434 times like Doyle. But it’s just plain silly to treat Lopez as washed out based on less than a full season of major league atbats, some of which were compiled before he could legally buy a beer at Safeco.
There is no way Lopez posts .283/24/80 next year. PUUUHHHHHLLLLELEEEEEAAAAAASSSSSSSE!
Sign Nomar and move on.
Tacoma PFs to~925, which is pretty much an extreme pitcher’s park.
850~900… Same range, and especially good for an MI, regardless.
But he might do .300/.400/.500 in the future (predicted by FDTs, projection, comparable players, etc.), while Nomar is retired or dying from the plague.
We’ll only possibly see that potential if Lopez is allowed to develop.
Yeah, well, we’re on the same side.
jojo, please compare the following MLB lines:
Player A, Age 21:.250/.294/.375 Age 22: .314/.370/.430
Player B, Age 22: .241/.272/.471 Age 22: .306/.342/.534
Player C, Age 22:.256/.294/.402 Age 23: .300/.350/.536
Player D, Age 21 .247/.282/.379
Player A is Jeter, Player B is Garciaparra, Player C is Aramis Ramirez, and Player D is Jose Lopez.
So please explain to me why sucking in the majors at age 21 or 22 means you’ll suck a year later?
Whoops- Nomar’s second year should obviously be his Age 23 year.
Anyway, this isn’t even CLOSE to a comprehensive analysis- I just picked some players out of a bag. I could toss in Mike Schmitt ( who was awful his rookie year at age 21) and a number of other HOF to good players who exploded at a young age. Lopez is just as likely to do it as they were. Yeah, some guys wash out. And Nomar could end up on the DL all year like Pokey.
Wasting money to replace someone with real potential at 2B when we have gaping holes in our rotation and lefty power that we CAN’T fill through young players is just silly.
Miguel Tejada’s the best comp, IMO.
And it’s not necessariy just age either. The M’s did well to stunt Lopez’ experience in 2004 and 2005 by stonewalling him behind veterans, limiting his ABs compared to some of the guys on your list.
But good stuff EC.
And…
There’s one place to learn MLB Hitting.
The MLB.
#103 Please explain to me how the youthful numbers of several top tier offensive producers can be usefully extrapolated as a predictor of future offensive production by random player X…..
Assuming the M’s pick up two good rotation arms via FA coupled with the catching upgrade and have a good chance at being competitive, then assume that Reed and Yuni pretty much have to be developed on the job (though Reed may well be traded), then why in the world would you develop a guy at second as well if you didnt have to? This is especially true since Reed and Bettie already are significant contributors with their defense. Lopez is only learning there too….
Then consider that you could plug in a guy at 2b that pretty much would be expected to be solid with the glove and give you .285, 25, 80 with his bat….all for a pretty reasonable price. Also consider that Lopez could then be used as trade bait in a package that could get you an arm. Finally consider the very likely possibility the Lopez never develops into anything special-he is still after all a hope and dream at this point. This isnt as far-fetched as those knee jerk reactions had you thinking………..
Sure, Nomar might give you that.
Or he might rip his crotch in half running out of the batter’s box.
At this point of Nomar’s career, after catastrophic leg and wrist injuries, you can’t safely bet on him at the price he’ll probably command. Nomar’s been saying he’ll play anywhere, so if the M’s can’t absolutely get anything, I wouldn’t mind sticking him in a LF/DH platoon for a year.
But it’s not smart to simply load up with veterans wherever and stonewall your prospects. That’s what the M’s did in 2002~2004. Nomar isn’t a reasonably large upgrade, IMO, to justify tossing a prospect overboard for.
Nomar isnt an upgrade if you expect Lopez to have near miraculous improvemen next season….
They both have risk — Nomar that he gets hurt or continues to decline, Lopez that he won’t live up to potential.
Nomar’s last two seasons have amounted to about one full year, on which he’s batted 297-18-71 (to use old-fashioned stats) — in two of the best hitters parks in baseball.
Any signing is a matter of balancing risk, but I don’t think the risk of Lopez not panning out is any higher than the risk of Nomar collapsing due to injury or age.
I understand raising the question: why is he untradeable? Is any player not named Bonds or Ruth really untradeable?
Let’s say his defense is superior, saving 25 runs, but his bat is replacement level. Let’s also say he makes somewhere very close to the league minimum.
Now, is it worth it to replace him with:
Rafael Furcal
Chase Utley
Julio Lugo
Mark Ellis
Placido Polanco
… given the price tag each of those names would command? We have a top-flight defender with questionable batting ability for somewhat close to the league minimum salary. Perhaps that is Bavasi’s mindset. I’m not saying it’s right, but that that’s his mindset.
With Bettie, his bat wasnt questionable-it was average. He has the potential to improve those numbers alot. The question seems to be if he has the potential to become Tejeda and if he doesnt, then why shouldnt the M’s trade him? Well, the answer is pretty easy….the Redsox and Angels both spent around 40 mill last year for excellent defending shortstops that dont have the bat of Tejeda.
Right now Bettie doesnt have a ton of trade value relative to what the M’s need. By this I mean youre not going to be able to trade Bettie straight up for a guy like Beckett. Essentially any trade involving Bettie is going to involve giving up other guys too. I think his value now to the M’s and his potential to grow in the future far outstrips his trade value. That pretty much makes him untradeable.
Like I pointed out, I think there’s something the player development guys see as well. There was an interesting point by another blogger that YuBet is on an extremely fast track to the MLB, for what seems like no reason. But sometimes it happens, probably because the player development guys see something.
I think Yuni is on the fast track because he already plays top-tier major league defense so he was an obvious upgrade for the M’s from that standpoint.
When all you want for your shortstop is defense now,then you can afford to develop his bat at Safeco.
If you accept Dave’s assertion that defense is undervalued, then it makes no sense to trade a guy who right now is primarily valued for his defense-you aint gonna get what youre looking for in return and if you truly like the player, you probably aint gonna be able to replace him very easily.
Betancourt’s already better than Pokey ever was, so why wouldn’t the M’s hang onto him?
True, the M’s do value defense a lot, but they’ve had a lot of glove wizards around too. Though the scenario is different, the Mike Cameron move, for instance, ran contrary to the idea.
At the same time, YuBet was not overmatched at any of the leagues he was fast tracked through. He didn’t Spiezio it. In fact, he hit incredibly well for a 23 year old with a 21 year old’s pitching eye.
If Furcal’s really getting $39m over 3 years from the Dodgers, damn straight Betancourt’s off limits.