Your guide to Everett alternatives
Can you do better than one year, $4m for Carl Everett? We’ve suggested as much in different places, so I’d like to offer this quick rundown.
What you get with Everett
In a previous post, I threw out 140 games where Everett hits .270/.350/.450 as “the best you could reasonably expect from Everett”. That would be better than a league-average DH.
A quick and dirty three-year projection (no park adjustments or anything) comes out at about .270/.330/.450. So if you want to dream a little dream, you’ll come out a lot better than that and yayyy.
If you look at how his career’s been going, though, you’ll see the decline that’s eating away his hitting year by year.
Another point to be considered is that while Everett may come to play DH, that forces Ibanez into left where over his career he’s been below-average. It’s not a horrible disaster, but figure that’s another five runs you lose when you make this roster decision.
Do nothing
This is not as bad an option as it might initially seem. You can play a platoon of Morse/whoever, and the whoever could be one of a couple of internal options:
Choo, Adam Jones, T.J. Bohn, or a relocated Reed as someone else pushes Reed over. And what the heck, if the random OFers you’re using don’t work, you can still be flexible. Plus, while some of these guys might not hit as well as Everett, they improve outfield defense, and going from Ibanez to a good left-fielder goes a long way to covering the gap in offensive production.
Or you can play Dobbs at DH. Sure, that’s not a great solution, but if it means that $4m saved gets the team Millwood over Matt Morris, that’s money well-saved. Plus, again, you can be flexible in-season if you want to move Ibanez back to DH because one of the prospect OFers is ready.
Get someone else
Left-or-both-hitting options still available through free agency with names. I’m quoting their three-year averages as rough projections: while PECOTA’s way better, we don’t have those projections yet, and three-year averages get you almost all the way there. So for this rough purpose, they’re quite useful here.
Jeremy Burnitz, OF-L, 37
His three-year average runs out to .260/.320/.470. But that also includes a Colorado year, and I’m not park-adjusting these at all.
Erubiel Durazo, DH-L, 32
Out with an injury most of last season, his three-year looks like .280/.370/.460 — again, a lot higher than Everett’s. That said, like Sexson before him, no one really knows how well he’ll hit coming off his injury. That may make him a bargain, but it certainly makes him a risk.
Scott Hatteberg, “Picking Machine”-L, 36
.260/.340/.380. No thanks.
Bobby Higginson, OF-L, 35
I remember back when Higginson had some decent years. Oh, those were the days.
Jacque Jones, OF-L, 31
Supposedly looking at three years for $6m or more, which is pretty big… but compared to Everett, a premium of $2m gets you a huge defensive upgrade. Three-year is .270/.320/.440 — but as Dave’s noted, he’s great against righties, so you platoon him with (say) Morse or someone, and he’s a monster.
Matt Lawton, OF-L, 34
Failed a drug test last year. Three year is .260/.350/.410 which is about Everett’s equal.
Travis Lee, 1B-L, 31
Three year is .270/.340/.460 (I know, surprising) but he didn’t play almost at all in 2004, so that’s really more a two-year. Lee can also play passable first base, which means Sexson could DH/rest sometimes.
Tino Martinez, 1B-L, 38
Ahhhhh, Tino. Three-year average is .260/.340/.440. But then, he’s old and decaying rapidly.
Bill Mueller, 3B-B, 35
His three-year’s high because he had that monster 2003, but still: .300/.380/.460. But even toss that out, and you’re still looking at .290/.370/.430 which would be way better than Everett production. And he could spell Beltre without putting a Bloomquist-level bat in the lineup. Would he sign for $4m? I’m not sure what he’s been offered so far, but that would be a career-high for him.
Comments
94 Responses to “Your guide to Everett alternatives”
Whatever happened to Bucky Jacobsen? Why can’t he DH?
We released Bucky.
Bucky had bad knees and he let himself get pudgy….bad combination…
Here’s an ineresting tidbit, Morse’s FPCT of .946 was th worst in the majors for shortstops having played at least 55 games.
LF is an easier position to play than SS. SS is a premier defensive position. With time to adjust, Morse would probably be an average defensive corner OF. On the cheap.
What about the as-yet unsigned Richard Hidalgo in left? He’s slightly younger than Jacque Jones, hits a tad better, with more power, and earned the same coin as Jones last year ($5,000,000).
Palmeiro? No. Much better to have pursued Giambi and his parasite when the Yanks might have listened. Palmeiro is done. He can’t harm us anymore….
WRT Morse as a “bad” left fielder – well, it is a small sample size, but watching him close on balls (esp flies and liners) last year was not amusing. Maybe with time he could be average out there, and if he was a 30HR guy that might be acceptable. But he isn’t, despite Finny’s suggestion that he only needs to put on “20-25 pounds” to become a longball threat. Not a good suggestion for someone with three drug-test violations…
Uh, nevermind. Upon closer inspection of Hidalgo’s production, especially the last of couple years, I would like to make a full and complete retraction of my just-issued proclamation. I’ll go back to lurking now.
I like the Tacoma option. BTW, ROTOWORLD is reporting that Matt Morris intends to stay in the National League. So maybe we can give a collective sigh of relief. Hopefully, soon Everett will say he wants to stay with a team that was above .500. Well, the dominoes are falling, just not on Bavasi game board. I think Bavasi needs to learn Shogi because dominoes just aren’t challenging his brain enough. Heck, I hope he moves up to chess at least.
Depends. How many outs is he using?
I’ll make up a line: .258/.339/.447. That’s his 2004 BA and his 2005 OBP and SLG. And let’s say he’s not an every day player, only playing DH against RHP, coming off the bench as a LH, and maybe playing the field 10-15 times. 100-110 games. And let’s say he uses the vortex in RF to muster 15 HRs on the season.
If he can do all that, he’s already the best hitter coming off the M’s bench in 2004.
And if he CAN do all that, I’m willing to bet the Yanks would be willing to trade a prospect for him.
If he can’t, what are we out? A non-roster invitee spot and a minor league deal, and he’s off the roster in Arizona.
Whose opportunity is he taking?
I would guess Dobby The Bench Elf would be stuck in Tacoma if Raffy sticks. WFB is sticking, obviously.
I think it’s worth a gamble. If he still has something in the tank, he can prove it and get the swan song he wanted. If he doesn’t, then the M’s only lose the little bit of cash needed to bring him in. Either way, I’d rather deal with the Raffy Distraction than the Carl Everett PR Trainwreck.
I doubt he’s going to accept coming off the bench.
My comment doesnt really have to do with carl everett although I dont think he would be that bad of a signing. Anyways, why is it then we are talking about replacements for reed (if he is traded) jamal strong is never mentioned in the debate? I realize his little bust for steroids wasn’t helpful but his minor league stats are pretty incredible actually. For a guy with little or no power to speak of, an 850 ops in triple is nice. Plus he has the speed to cause havoc on the basepaths. Plus it would seem that his speed would be an asset defensively in the outfield. Anyone want to take a stab(Dave?) as to why he doesnt seem to be in the mariners plans? It would seem to my untrained atleast that he would be a more legitimate option than Bohn.
Thanks
I’m not a big fan of Raffy these days, but I just did some checking. He’s hit a career .293 at Safeco. 17 home runs in 43 games here. Not bad.
That’s also facing horrible pitching and Raffy throughout many years of being in his prime, not a washed up schmuck.
Should we add Todd Hollandsworth to the list? He’s left-handed and a free agent. Plus he’s a local boy which means he’s halfway here anyway.
Btw, I’m not necessarily endorsing Hollandsworth, but he seems like a classic Mariner acquisition.
Since someone brought up Raffy as a possible addition to the M’s, I thought I throw this one out. What about Sammy Sosa? I know that he isn’t the lefty that the M’s prefer, but the options out there are slim to say the least. He could be had at a reduced price. ANother option..Corey Paterson. The Cubs got Pierre to play CF. IS he available?
From what I hear, Patterson’s expected to be non-tendered if the Cubs can’t get anything for him (much like Meche). I’d think he’d be worth a flier; he was horrible last year, but if he posts a .770 OPS (as he did in ’04), with his glove, he’d be as good for us as Jacque Jones, and considerably cheaper, with still maybe a chance of a fluke year (like his ’03). Heck, even if he hits like he did last year, he’d still make a nice OF glove off the bench.
Here’s a tidbit that could effect the M’s ability/desire to stay in house for their left field needs:
*******Matt Morris told the Post-Dispatch Saturday night that he would not be returning to St. Louis. He’s narrowed his choices to San Francisco and Cincinnati, according to FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal.**** the offers are rumored to be in the 3 years and 25 million neighborhood.
As each arm exits the market, the price likely goes up for the remaining ones…Millwood may end up getting 100 million a year 😛
You can see pretty clearly that Raffy going through the same kind of decline phase that Everett’s going through (the difference is Raffy stared out as a better hitter, but he’s older now), so I don’t see much of an advantage to signing him, talent-wise, if any.
Then there’s the problem that if the Mariners are serious about sending a message to their minor leaguers that steroid use is unacceptable, handing Palmeiro a major league job is probably not a very convincing way to get that across. And if you think Everett’s provoking strong reactions, wait until they boo EVERY time Palmeiro shows up at the plate, like they did in Baltimore when he came off the DL.
My guess is Raffy’s done. It’s not exactly going to be “collusion”, but similar to how some players in the 1920’s were persona non grata without getting lifetime bans from Commissioner Landis’s office after other gambling scandals than the 1919 World Series, Palmeiro’s not going to be signed by ANY MLB team, because the Commissioner’s Office is going to make it unofficially clear that seeing Rafael Palmeiro in a uniform again isn’t something they’d like to have happen, and a 41 year old DH with declining skills isn’t going to tempt teams to cross the Commissioner.
I know the Raffy argument is pretty much irrelevant, but historically once a hitter gets over 40, they decline so fast its embarrassing to look at. It’s unrealistic to expect an increase in production, but very realistic to expect a drastic decrease. Being a realist I don’t see his bat helping the M’s.
WRT Morse, he seemed to have good range and a good arm at short from what I saw of him. He’s not our shortstop of the future, YuBet should be. But, I’m trying to get at that he is a good athlete and worth a shot in left. I’m not saying he IS the man. I’m just trying to back him up a little in defense of what is said about him as a player. I’ll take him over Carl. I’ll take him and a decent pitcher over any guy on that list.
Ive played devil’s advocate and argued that Everett should at least be considered a reasonable short-gap alternative. However, if Everett is the big-splash free agent signing coming out of the winter meetings for the M’s, then wow…what a failure December seems to be…
Millwood may have to be inked if for no other reason than to keep Mariner Nation from spending copious amounts of money on prozac instead of season ticket renewals…
If Morris goes for 8 mill per over three, I cant see the remaining arms being cheaper…. Millwood likely will get his 5 years and guys like Washburn probably at least 4. Weaver made roughly 9.4 mill last season and its difficult to see any arm capable of 220 innings a year at close to a 4 ERA taking a paycut.
Its looking like the M’s will be LUCKY to sign just one good arm for the rotation. That leaves trades, and you can’t make good nachos without any chips. The roster may need to be dramatically reshaped in order to add a quality arm (meaning blasting a hole to plug one).
Heck, I’ll just take the pitcher. Keep the “hole” in left.
Everett = Eric Anthony or Glenn Wilson
Remember them?
Get Erubiel Durazo, and get him now.
Durazo has pretty much never been considered that valuable by anyone other than oakland, except in his prospect days in arizona. He is big, coming off injury, and a .235 batting average, albeit in a small sample size. He CANT play a position, ever. He may not even be ready to start the 2006 season.
There is NO WAY anyone is giving this guy a multiyear deal, and my guess is something in the neighborhood of 1 year for 2.5mil with some incentives that include a player option for another year could net the big lefty.
Furthermore Durazo’s career line is a robust .281 .381 .487 and there is little reason to expect any significant performance decline at age 30. In his last full season(2004) Durazo was at his best posting a stellar .321 .396 0.523. Nobody with a track record like that, or even a ceiling that high that bats left handed is even on the radar. When he is healthy and playing regularly the guy hits, period.
He is a big lefty OBP guy who can launch towering shots to right field, not unlike Thome or Palmeiro, guys who found homering at the Safe less than challenging. Hitting between Ichiro and Sexson (who knows about the 2 hole) I’d expect Durazo to put up about .275/.380/.480 with 20-24 hr in about 500 at bats.
As for Ibanez in left every day, heres an argument that I havent seen before and have nothing but theory to support. If we make a significant FA signing that clearly forces Ibanez into the Starting Left Field job, he and everyone else knows he will be out there every day for 2006. For a guy that has played everywhere and rarely had a position locked down at any point in his career, this could be a huge motivator. The M’s and Ibanez have several months before the season starts to turn a decidely mediocre outfielder into a respectable one. While his throwing arm and range are unlikely to improve, his routes and consistency undoubtedly will. In terms of games played by position, Ibanez is the equivalent of a left fielder entering his 4th major league season, and has only twice logged more that 100 games in left field. There is no reason to assume he cant improve significantly, and the M’s look to be very strong defensively at almost every other position.
“Jacque Jones, OF-L, 31
…as Dave’s noted, he’s great against righties, so you platoon him …and he’s a monster.”
Jones averaged .280/.333/.474 against righties from ’02-04, and .268/.348/.466 in ’05. That’s the best we could expect from him if he was platooned PERFECTLY, only batting against righthanders. Is an .800 OPS considered monstrous in left field? There were only six regular left fielders in baseball who didn’t reach that mark in ’05.
We had a Jones already, only better. His name was Randy Winn, and nobody ever accused him of being a monster. Pray for no Jacque in ’06.
I’d give Raffy an NRI, but that’s about it.
The thing about Raul in left is that left is one of the most important defensive positions at Safeco. After Short and Center, Left is where I want my best guy.
74: An .800 OPS would be good for second on the team among regulars. That plus great defense? Yes please!!
As an M’s fan living in LA the last 10 years, everyone down here was kind of surprised AL teams didn’t seem to make a harder run at Olmedo Saenz. He hit quite well for the Dodgers (better than Choi), and everyone pretty much assumed LA was going to lose him to an AL club that would pay him a ton to DH full-time. Instead, the Dodgers got him for 2 years at $1M per, which seems like a major bargain. Seems like he could have been a good DH fit for the M’s, and I wonder if/why they didn’t look more at Saenz. Anyone have any ideas?
Also, Choi is somewhat unfairly viewed like plutonium in Dodgerland now, so with Saenz re-upping and the Dodgers thinking very hard about moving Jeff Kent to first full-time once Izturis heals, he’s the odd man out, and might make an attractive fit for the M’s.
I’m still on the Morse/Choo bandwagon. Even considering Palmeiro as an option is laughable; he’d be nothing more than a side show that this team neither wants nor needs. The same could be said about Crazy Carl.
But Winn was considerably better than his detractors believed, and so is Jones.
Yay Durazo!
Scraps, Winn was quite good, but he also didn’t cost 7 million per.
If this team only has 10-15 left to spend, which do you want:
A. Millwood and platoon of Choo/Morse/Strong in LF
B. Jacque Jones in LF and Gil Meche in rotation
I’ll take A please.
Southpaw, thanks for the seeing the light! A. all the way!
If the choice was between
A) Millwood and crap in LF
and
B) Jacque Jones in LF and Gil Meche,
We ALL should want A. Oh, wait….I just restated what Southpaw said….(the relevant part being that it’s pitching pitching pitching……)
I know some people think it’s pitching pitching pitching, but it isn’t; it’s pitching hitting fielding, and a lot of y’all seriously underrate fielding. If the choice is between A & B above, then you should consider that Millwood is not going to be as good with crap in left field, while Meche — and everybody else pitching — would be better with Jones in left. In other words, signing Jacques Jones is about helping your pitching.
It’s not a simple equation. When the Mariners had a great outfield, the pitching looked pretty damned good. The White Sox staff looked a hell of a lot better last year with a defense behind them. Jones may be overvalued, but only because everybody in this free agent class is overvalued. The pitchers are still overvalued a hell of a lot more than the fielding studs. If Jones is too expensive, Millwood is much more so.
Please! No Carl Everett. You are right about the defense and the numbers. But just think about the club house effect. The guy has been a loose cannon. No thanks! We need some leadership in the club house. What Everett brings is not exactly leadership… I agree that doing nothing and spending the money on pitching is much better. However, are the M’s really going to compete this year. Let’s build for the future and forgo any bandaid moves this off season.
Given the three holes in the rotation, I’m afraid that you’re going to have to pay a lot of attention to that. I think pitching is a scarcer commodity than hitting, and if you can address that now, I think you’re in a better way than if you address the everyday player, particularly given what’s out there now.
I don’t mind the idea of getting Durazo or maybe Lee. If they come fairly cheap they might be good risks. The idea of Carl Everett in a Mariner uniform makes me want to get out the cross, the wooden stake and the silver bullets. I don’t find very many of the listed alternatives particularly attractive.
I believe the Mariners need to be throwing their free-agent money into some starting pitching, not at mediocre hitters. If the team primarily needs to upgrade the rotation, I would rather overpay for Millwood than sign Jurassic Carl and then have to rely on Meche or Franklin (or maybe Pineiro too, or all three of them) for another season.
I still think the team should address its hitting needs through a trade. I would love to see the M’s get creative and try to pry Chad Tracy away from Arizona, for example. There should be some younger LH or switch-hitters out there who wouldn’t be too expensive, who have some power, and who could be acquired for the right package of players… without Seattle having to give up Sexson, Ichiro, Felix, or Beltre.
Guardado’s contract is a bargain, considering what some relievers are getting in the FA market. Wouldn’t he be fairly tradable right about now? If we did trade him, who would we have to take on his role?
Lots of options to replace Guardado. Soriano presumably stands at the head of that list, but there are other possibilities as well; for my part, Sherrill would be my second choice.
Everett is too expensive for the potential he brings. His personal life, character,and relationship issues are not the issue…his age, bat,speed,and glove are the issues. Lets not forget however that two things also factor into this need for a LH power bat: (1) we added 20-25 HR when we added JoJo MoJo that we had not orginally counted on:and,(2) Morse spent the fall down in Arizonia working on playing left field and the one report I read said he was doing well with that transition.
I see, keep the money in reserve for a July pick up and lets see if Dobbs and Morse can share LF and handle the job.
The team does not need to be finalized before Christmas you know. And oh,and thanks to you all for some interesting reads and Merry Christmas and Holidays as you perceive it.
I don’t want Everett for $4 million. Raffy would be a better risk. Jones, Durazo or Lee would be OK, but Jacques could be too expensive and Lee isn’t a great answer. I think that Durazo has the best risk/reward scenario; I’d go 2 years plus an option for a third.
Where’s the love for Doyle? Yeah, his health is a constant discouragement, and I would hardly count on him in a big way, but he isn’t that old yet. I am optimistic that he’ll contribute yet.
I don’t want to risk watching Millwood throw Sele-like games in 2008-9-10. No, I don’t claim that the numbers storngly indicate that he’ll fall off that badly, but it is just too damn long and pricey a deal for a pitcher.
I don’t want to watch Carl on my team. Period. Hi **might** be great. I don’t want to watch him. I don’t want to watch Palmeiro, either. I don’t want them. All I know is that even if they do the best they’re currently capable of, it won’t help the team win that much, but watching them win a few more games will stink.
Let’s go with the young ones until they fail, and hope someone blossoms or the trade gods bless us.
NO NO NO
Any chance we can push the gay heathen paleontologist angle?