Salt In The Wound

Dave · December 15, 2005 at 7:38 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Not to distract from the ritual suicide being committed in the Carl Everett threads below, but, in the wake of the Everett signing, there’s some other bad news that’s being overlooked.

Now general manager Bill Bavasi says his focus is on free agent pitching. He didn’t name names, but that would mean Kevin Millwood, Jarrod Washburn and Scott Elarton, among others.

With the traditional break agents, players and front-office types take at Christmas, time is closing quickly.

Bavasi has offers on the table to all three of the above. It’s not that he’ll land all three. For now, he’d settle for one, then seeing if a second one might come along.

He says if the Mariners don’t land a pitcher right away, it won’t be from lack of effort — or money.

“No one will act before we do,” Bavasi said at the early evening new conference to introduce Everett, late of the Chicago White Sox. “We’ve got our offers out there. We’ve put a lot of money out there.

“Even with Matt Morris (a top choice of the Mariners who signed with the Giants), it wasn’t a money thing. We got eliminated by Morris the same day the Cardinals (Morris’ former team did). The offer was competitive.”

Millwood, Morris, Washburn, and Elarton. Those are the pitchers we know that the M’s have expressed serious interest in this offseason. So which of these is not like the others?

Seriously, putting Millwood in the same group with those three is like serving a honey glazed salmon with a side of fries, grits, and chasing it with a can of Schlick’s.

Millwood, we’ve covered. We like him. He’s good.

Morris, we were against, and we’re glad he chose the Giants over the M’s. Dodged a bullet there.

Washburn, well, he’s just not good. He’s one of the more extreme flyball pitchers in the AL, has mediocre command, and can’t miss bats. If you break out his batters faced by contact type, his mediocrity shines through.

27 percent of his BF hit flyballs
8 percent walked
13 percent struck out

Want a Mariner comparison? How about Ryan Franklin:

Flyballs – 28 percent
Walks – 8 percent
Strikeouts – 11 percent

He’s basically a left-handed Ryan Franklin.

And Elarton? He’s basically the epitome of replacement level. He’s even more flyball prone than Washburn, and his basic strategy is throw-ball-over-plate-and-pray.

In fact, here’s the batted ball outcomes, side by side, for Elarton and Eric Freaking Milton.

Player	Team	BFP	K%	BB%	GB%	OF%	IF%	LD%	Oth%
Elarton S.	CLE	774	13%	7%	26%	31%	5%	17%	1%
Milton E.	CIN	855	14%	7%	26%	31%	4%	15%	2%

2005 Expected Fielding Independant ERA for the three pitchers the M’s are known to have offers out to:

Millwood: 3.99
Washburn: 5.01
Elarton: 5.19

If the M’s give any kind of significant contract to Washburn or Elarton, this offseason will go down as disastrous. Washburn and Elarton are barely better bets going forward than Bobby Livingston or Jeff Harris. Washburn, especially, is going to command a salary so far from what his real talent level is that he’ll be untradeable from the minute he signs.

So, it’s Kevin Millwood or bust. Literally.

Comments

71 Responses to “Salt In The Wound”

  1. DJ on December 15th, 2005 7:54 am

    It would appear to a rational person that since the M’s “settled” for a cheaper left-handed sock they would be able to pass these savings onto an offer to a top of the line pitcher whose first name is Kevin….No not Appier.

    More often than not, you get what you pay for. Unless youre name is Billy Beane.

  2. Melvin Bob on December 15th, 2005 7:55 am

    It’s now Kevin Millwood, Jarrod Washburn, Scott Elarton, AND Sir Sidney Ponson! Yippee!!!!

  3. Revenant Edgar on December 15th, 2005 7:57 am

    There is a rumor that the Red Sox want Jeremy Reed for Clement.

  4. Revenant Edgar on December 15th, 2005 8:01 am

    Millwood would be fine – but at what price?

    Play GM for a minute.
    1) He is the most coveted pitcher on the market;
    2) He is represented by Boras.

    How much do you give him – 4 years for $55; 5 years for $65? 5 years plus a player option?

    If he doesn’t want to come to Seattle, then what?

  5. vj on December 15th, 2005 8:01 am

    Regarding Elarton, according to Hardballtimes, he made about a third of Meche’s or Franklin’s salary (850k instead of 2.5m). Could they be looking for a cheap replacement of one of these guys, here?

  6. Dave on December 15th, 2005 8:06 am

    Elarton won’t be signing for 850K again.

    We covered the Reed for Clement thing the other day. It’s a bad deal.

  7. halfpriced on December 15th, 2005 8:09 am

    Leave Reed in Safeco Center Field.

  8. Adam B. on December 15th, 2005 8:16 am

    This is turning into a rather dissapointing off-season.

    I had hope after the Johjima signing, but it looks like we’re still getting more of the same from the Mariners front office.

    Not that Jurrasic is the worst signing of all time, and I’d even be able to forgive them for signing him if I knew they had some grand scheme in mind…

    Scott Elarton is NOT a grand scheme.

    At least they’ll have loads of cash available in 2007.
    Anyone awesome we can miss out on next year?

  9. Colm on December 15th, 2005 8:22 am

    Oh I bloody give up.

    The City Council should cite eminent domain and reposess the team to get the Bavasi/Armstrong/Hargrove/Lincoln confederacy of dunces out of the front office.

    Washburn, Elarton and Ponson? Bogus, Bunce and Bean would make for a stronger rotation. These people are paid millions of dollars each year, much of it subsidized by the public purse, to understand baseball, and they come up with this as a plan?!

    Sweet mercy….

  10. Russ on December 15th, 2005 8:26 am

    Excluding the Jojima signing, this off-season is not bringing much joy to Ms fans.

    Everett: 300 posts in a couple of hours in December with a predominate majority not in favor and many out and out disgusted.

    Pitching: Nothing. Franklin getting DFA’d would have been a positive. Had they done this at the first possible second, it would have given any fan a jolt of optimisim. He isn’t trade bait for anyone. The fact that Washburn is his equal is scary. Washburn routinely beats the Ms so he must be great, right? Right?

  11. murton on December 15th, 2005 8:34 am

    Why does Kevin Millwood get all this love? Prior to this past season, only two times in seven years did he have an ERA below 4 and on both occasions, they were followed by two middling seasons. His up and down pattern is almost relieveresque. He may or may not continue the same pattern the next two years but there’s reason to suspect that he may not be good for large portions of his contract. At 4-5 years with a good sized AAV, I don’t think he’ll be worth it.

    And then there’s his pace. It’s so inhumanly slow, not just the time between pitches, but his motion itself. Watch it long enough and you’re bound to just rip your hair out in a flash of insanity.

  12. Colm on December 15th, 2005 8:46 am

    Compare him to Elarton, Ponson and Washburn (or Pineiro, Meche and Franklin) and I love him like my own children.

  13. ChrisK on December 15th, 2005 8:46 am

    I would almost dare them to sign Sir Sidney, because the notion is so preposturous.

  14. Colm on December 15th, 2005 8:50 am

    Who’s on the hook for Ponson’s $8.5 million this year? Or did he break his contract with the O’s by racking up all those arrests?

  15. Zip Bailey on December 15th, 2005 8:51 am

    One name I saw in the paper this morning: Sidney Ponson. He’s been so out of shape, I couldn’t project how a “fit” (mentally and physically) Ponson would perform. Can any of you? Is he a better alternative than what we have to fill the rotation?

    I do know this: Ponson may not have left-handed sock, but he does throw a fine right jab. (Pah-DUM-pah.)

  16. Brian Rust on December 15th, 2005 9:05 am

    I’m optimistic about Millwood. I like the part about “No one will act before we do.” It tells me the other buyers recognize the M’s as the 800-pound gorilla in this hunt. Under the current circumstances I would not be surprised to see them loosen up the budget and offer a five year deal. YRIHF.

  17. BillJ on December 15th, 2005 9:07 am

    You guys are joking about Sidney Ponson being mentioned in the paper, right? Or did I accidentally start reading a Royals or Devil Rays blog?

  18. Melvin Bob on December 15th, 2005 9:09 am

    Nope! M’s are actually considering Shrek. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2002684713_mari15.html

  19. Colm on December 15th, 2005 9:12 am

    Straight up, from the Larry Stone article on MadCarl.

    “Another intriguing name on their radar [is] Sidney Ponson”.

  20. chris w on December 15th, 2005 9:22 am

    Wow, what an underwhelming offseason. I think the best we can reasonably hope for at this point is a few more 1-year commitments and a mediocre season which is interesting primarily because the youngsters improve and stay healthy. Hopefully, that mediocrity will be just enough to cause Bavasi to be fired and replaced by Depodesta. Then, in 2007, when all the 1-year contracts come off the books, the Ms will have a smarter GM in place to make the 2007-2009 Team King Felix push for the WS.

  21. Sir Topham Hatt on December 15th, 2005 9:30 am

    [wrong thread, answer is in other]

  22. BillJ on December 15th, 2005 9:31 am

    Wow, Ponson, huh? Sounds like they’re really trying to do away with that “nice guy” image.

    Who’s next on the “radar”, Ugueth Urbina?

  23. Colm on December 15th, 2005 9:34 am

    I’m not at all sure DePo’s got what it takes. It’s all about the deal and several of his were head scratchers. Would you like JD Drew and Derek Lowe in Seattle? On those contracts?

    Couldn’t we find our own stat savvy whiz kid in Seattle.

    Hey! A certain Dave Cameron just won one leadership contest in Britain. Maybe it’s time to start the push here in Seattle.

    Dave for GM!

  24. Sir Topham Hatt on December 15th, 2005 9:34 am

    Rototimes: Dec. 15 The Denver Post reports that Scott Elarton (P) Cle is on the verge of signing a two-year contract with the Royals.

  25. M's Zn on December 15th, 2005 9:36 am

    It was a crappy free agent market to begin with and few of these FA’s would even entertain the thought of playing in the Northwest. Is this scenario really that unexpected?

    Overpay for Millwood or suffer another mediocre season…Overpay for Millwood and still potentially suffer through another mediocre season. These are the after effects of resting on our laurels following the 90-win seasons. It sure seems like a long time ago, huh? We could be waiting for 2007.

    When will Everett jersies be available? In solid teal, of course.

  26. lefty on December 15th, 2005 9:45 am

    Man, we should clean house. Anyone who thinks that Elarton, Washburn or Sidney Pontoon (who looks like he should be floating through the Macy’s parade, guided by the rest of the Orioles with ropes) is going to be a good risk, should be fired. Sort of a litmus test.

    Bavasi seems as though he is doing his best Cam Bonifay impression. The problem is that the Mariners have had the payroll flexibility for us to hire several Kevin Youngs.

  27. Brian Harper on December 15th, 2005 9:50 am

    I don’t get it. If Washburn projects so badly for 2006, he must have projected as bad or worse before 2005, yet he had a 3.20 ERA last year. How does his FERA for 2005 come out so high when he’s been so much more effective away than at home? His career ERA is 3.93. And we’re to believe that he’s basically Ryan Franklin? Ryan of the 5.10 ERA last year and 4.34 career mark? If we’re to believe that the discrepancy between these two is just a matter of luck because their gb-fb ratio and walk and strikeout rates were so similar, then maybe we should wonder why some guys are so consistently luckier than others, and sign the lucky ones. I mean, a 1.90 gap in ERA over a season is tremendous, and a .41 gap for a career is nothing to sneeze at. If Washburn is that lucky, I’d be fine having him in a Mariner uniform.

    I’d certainly prefer Millwood, but last time I checked, the M’s were in need of more than one starter, and I’d take Washburn over Meche or Franklin.

  28. lefty on December 15th, 2005 9:56 am

    Sir Sidney?
    Maybe for the new Mariner ads Sir Sidney could compete with Patrick Swayze for a job at Chippendales (Chris Farley, SNL) and then after losing, put his Mariners Jersey on.

    SoDo too many JoJos

  29. Dave on December 15th, 2005 9:56 am

    Risking $30 million, or whatever absurd number Washburn gets, hoping that he’s the exception to the rule of pitcher performance, is absolutely insane.

    Seriously. Jarrod Washburn pitched like a #5 starter last year. His ERA doesn’t reflect how poor he actually pitched. It will. He’s been steadily declining for four years, and his decline was masked by the Angels defense and a good amount of luck.

    He’s the pitching version of Jeff Cirillo. He was once an effective player who has basically become replacement level and no one has noticed yet because of his surroundings.

  30. jaketrash on December 15th, 2005 10:00 am

    I would be very surprised if Millwood was offered a 5 year contract somewhere. Money or years shouldn’t be the issue.

    I certainly hope that there isn’t any consideration for signing these other higher profile FA pitchers. Hopefully the dialog is just part of keeping the conversations for signing Millwood moving along. They don’t even look like they would fit into the good 1st half category.

    Speaking of which, has anyone heard recently about a trade possibility for Adam Eaton? He can compete with Joel for which 6M pitcher in their contract year would be most likely offered a contract next off season or lead to topics of which one get the most interest from other teams in July.

    All this being said I am really looking forward to seeing the list of non-tendered pitchers becoming available next week? If the M’s are really going to add two pitchers, this could be the best bet for that 2nd guy.

  31. Revenant Edgar on December 15th, 2005 10:04 am

    These are the after effects of resting on our laurels following the 90-win seasons.

    I agree. We rested and watched the team get older.

    **************************************************************
    News: Chicago White Sox – Acquired P Javier Vazquez from the Arizona Diamondbacks for OF Chris Young, P Orlando Hernandez, and P Luis Vizcaino.

    Did Bavasi make an offer for Vazquez? I doubt it. He doesn’t have the ability.

  32. JBird on December 15th, 2005 10:09 am

    Well, condsidering Seattle was one of the teams named in Vazquez’s no trade clause, I doubt Bavasi put much effort into trying to bring him to Seattle.

  33. murton on December 15th, 2005 10:16 am

    Revenant Edgar: It wouldn’t have made a difference if Bavasi made an offer. Vazquez wanted out of Arizona to be closer to his family in Puerto Rico. Seattle’s even further away than Arizona. He would’ve rejected it.

  34. eponymous coward on December 15th, 2005 10:27 am

    27-

    Pitchers of very mediocre ability regularly come up with surprising seasons: Jerrod Washburn, Ryan Franklin, Elmer Dessens have ALL had seasons in the last 5 years where they posted 3-ish ERAs with peripheral numbers that are more indicative of 4-5ish ERAs. (That’s not an exclusive list, BTW.) Basically, they threw a lot of “at’em balls” that year.

    In the latter two cases, they came back to earth very, very quickly. Are you willing to bet 30 million that Washburn’s not going to do that?

  35. Adam S on December 15th, 2005 10:27 am

    What are the chances the Mariners sign Millwood? Is there any money left?

    They’ve talked about $20-25M to spend this offseason. By my count Johjima (5.5), Moyer (5.5), Eddie (6.5), and Everett (3.6) adds up to $21M. $4 won’t get you Millwood :) And the only way to free up salary room is to move Sexson, Beltre, or Guardardo. (Moving Pineiro, we’d still pay part of his contract or get an $4M dud in return.)

    Does their accounting let them get creative, like giving Millwood a $6M signing bonus and a $4 salary for 2006?

  36. Colm on December 15th, 2005 10:33 am

    That’s why I’m so bent out of shape about the Guardado and Everett deals. There’s a good chance that these guys don’t manage one full season between them, and the M’s have committed $10.1M to them for 2006.

    $14.1M would easily attract the attention of Mr Millwood, who could do a whole lot more good for the Mariners than Everett and Eddie combined.

  37. eponymous coward on December 15th, 2005 10:33 am

    It would appear to a rational person that since the M’s “settled” for a cheaper left-handed sock they would be able to pass these savings onto an offer to a top of the line pitcher whose first name is Kevin

    You’d hope that, but let’s do the math:

    Johjima: 5.5 million
    Jamie: 5.5 million
    Everett: 4 million

    That’s 15 million on the Mariner charge card, out of a FA budget somewhere in the 20-25 million range, not including incentives.

    This is why I have a sneaking suspicion that what might happen is something like this:

    Elarton at 4-5 million, with an optional second year
    Meche at 3-4 million (“Hey, that fastball’s so good, we HAVE to give him one last shot! Plus we can get two pitchers on short tem deals instead of Millwood at $Texas for 5 years!”)
    Franklin gets dumped with a non-tender

    Your 2006 Seattle Mariners…..yeeeeeah.

  38. Bonz on December 15th, 2005 10:36 am

    At least Ponson would provide the Pioneer Square bars a nice revenue stream, and a monthly quota-buster for the DWI patrol as well! And all this time I thought Guillen was traded because of the DWI! Has Bavasi lost his mind? Certainly he’s not trying to deek Boras into believing that Ponson is a viable option to Millwood. The mind boggles…

  39. DMZ on December 15th, 2005 10:39 am

    Part of this has may deal in the long-hazy world of Mariner accounting. If Johjima does, as Bavasi’s recent comments indicate, count against the set payroll, then yeah. If as a foreign player who hasn’t played in the majors he doesn’t, as previous Mariner comments have indicated, then there’s a little more room.

  40. joealb on December 15th, 2005 10:41 am

    It’s Schlitz.

  41. M's Zn on December 15th, 2005 10:46 am

    If Bavasi can’t find quality starter, this will be his last season in Seattle. We can’t win with the current rotation and Bavasi can’t stay employed by building back-to-back-to-back 90-loss teams with the amount we have to spend.

    You can be certain that Bavasi is lobbying for a little wiggle room on that $20 – $25 mil. Say $5 mil or so. Its his job at stake.

    What’s more is that the M’s organization knows their product is in decline. Another crappy season and they are going to be faced with serious revenue issues. So many of you posters talk big about not buying your season package, if there’s one more year of losses them I may start to believe you.

    This is the year the M’s need to overspend, whether we like the options or not. I believe they’re backed into a bit of a corner…also illustrated by the risky signing of Everett which I think is a reasonable short term solution.

  42. DMZ on December 15th, 2005 10:46 am

    So you mean you don’t know of the mighty old Schlicks of Bohemia and their brewing prowess?

    He might also be talking about a beer that belongs to someone named Schlick.

  43. Colm on December 15th, 2005 10:49 am

    I’m sure Derek has done the research. I hear he’s very dedictated that way.

  44. msb on December 15th, 2005 10:49 am

    so what exactly does ‘on their radar’ mean?

    re, his contract, from the Sun: “Ponson’s arrest in August marked the last straw for the Orioles, who placed the pitcher on unconditional release waivers for the purpose of terminating the final year of a three-year, $22.5 million contract he signed in January 2004. The Orioles are trying to void the remaining $10 million they owe Ponson for the end of the 2005 season and all of 2006. Ponson has contested the move, and an arbitration hearing is expected next year. Ponson’s attorneys declined to discuss the matter Monday.”

    his lawyers also claim “Ponson checked himself into a California in-patient treatment clinic, where he was not free to leave for 30 days, and he undertook alcohol education and intensive therapy and recovery programs”

    hey, and Sir Sidney may not be quite as round in a week or two– reportedly he doesn’t like the food in the Central Booking and Intake Center in East Baltimore ….

  45. DriveByBlogger on December 15th, 2005 10:51 am

    Ponson looks big enough to show up on the radar…

  46. joealb on December 15th, 2005 10:52 am

    My apologies, I’d never heard of Schlick’s and in the context of it’s use (Schlitz used to give me the S**ts) I thought you meant Schlitz.

  47. DJ on December 15th, 2005 10:52 am

    I’m trying to understand where the Moyer re-signing fits into their “offseason budget”. He came back for less than last season, so that is actually a savings from last years budget. Taking the budget that Dave put out early this fall, and updating it with the Johjima, Moyer, and Everett signings i come up with a total of about $76 mil. That leaves $14 to $19 to fill two spots in the rotation. Non tender Franklin and Thorton, bring back Meche because of that potential, and sign Millwood for $11? or something similar?

    Dave’s plan was what i wanted, now i’m just hoping Bavasi just meets somewhere in the middle….Everett instead of Jones…..not the end of the world, but lets not stray too far now!

  48. DMZ on December 15th, 2005 10:57 am

    He might.

    He might also mean Schmidt’s. There’s a lot of brand confusion down on that end of the beer aisle.

  49. murton on December 15th, 2005 10:59 am

    Colm, are you saying that Millwood would take a one year deal for 14.1 million? He’s been trying for the past three seasons to have a good enough year to net him a big money long-term contract. He finally managed one last season.

    From a buyer’s perspective, why would someone take the bait of one very good year after two average ones, or on a trackrecord of three very good years and 5 average ones. It smells like they’re being lured into a bad contract.

    Discounting his 51.3 innings his rookie year: his ERA+ has been:
    104/162/100/102/127/103/90/143

    Locking him up to a long-term contract doesn’t sound like a good move.

  50. joealb on December 15th, 2005 11:00 am

    ANIMAL BEER!!!!! College days?

  51. Russ on December 15th, 2005 11:01 am

    I want a delete key. I’m available for deletion services from 6 to 8 PM.

    “They found my psych results fit a certain profile. A certain “Moral flexibility” would be the best way to describe it… I was loaned out to a CIA-sponsored program. It’s called “mechanical operations.” We sort of
    found each other…”

    I’ll work cheap or free. Mostly free.

  52. Revenant Edgar on December 15th, 2005 11:11 am

    Is it too late to get Theo Epstein?

  53. gary on December 15th, 2005 11:11 am

    As a peripheral issue, may we infer from this signing that Bavasi and/or the rest of the administration of the Mariners are ignoring the input from another recent acquisition, viz. the stats guy [his name eludes me at the moment]? If memory serves, Bavasi claimed he was going to actually listen to him (not “heed”, mind you, “listen”). Maybe this signing was actually an evil plot by Lincoln to render the stats guy apoplectic.

  54. Revenant Edgar on December 15th, 2005 11:14 am

    Jonah Keri book reading this Saturday night!! Woo hoo and yippeee!!!

  55. Pete A. on December 15th, 2005 11:17 am

    I think the Everett signing manifests at least 4 central fallacies in the Mariners’ tradition in free agents and talent acquisition:

    1. The Clubhouse Presence Myth: Attitude and clubhouse presence is really, really important — perhaps more so than the common measures of a player’s on field success.

    2. The Proven Veterans Myth: Given a veteran in his 30s who has declined in production over the last 3 or 4 years, you should project next year to replicate his peak years. As opposed to someone in his low 20s who is increasing in productivity, the older veteran is a Proven Talent.

    3. The Hidden Gem Myth: Rather than spend big money on star players that any attentive 12-year-old can see are highly productive, the SMART teams win be skipping the Vlads and Tejadas and finding hidden gems.

    4. The Proven Winner Myth: If a player has ever been on a championship team, he is much more valuable than his numbers make it look because he Knows How To Win.

    Number 3 seemed to be on a welcome hiatus last year, but all 4 seem to be in force in the Everett signing.

  56. Revenant Edgar on December 15th, 2005 11:17 am

    gary,

    He’ll listen but he won’t understand. Bavasi would have to take Bpro’s “Baseball by the Numbers 101″ to understand – and it’s a year-long course. By this time in 2007 Bavasi is likely to be gone.

  57. Revenant Edgar on December 15th, 2005 11:23 am

    Pete A.

    I agree that Myths 2, 3 and 4 are as you say.

    Attitude and clubhouse presence are really, really important. Bill James said so after the Red Sox won it all in 2004.

    You might argue that what Everett brings is the wrong type of attitude, and I wouldn’ necessarily disagree, but that wouldn’t negate the fact that they are very important.

  58. ChrisK on December 15th, 2005 11:25 am

    55, PeteA – Those rules can also apply to the offseason of 2003-04 (Spiezio & Aurilia)

  59. G-Man on December 15th, 2005 11:36 am

    The Clubhouse Presence thing is a a tag a team hangs on a player when his numbers don’t look so great. No one can measure it, so no one can call it a bad signing based on stats.

  60. Revenant Edgar on December 15th, 2005 11:38 am

    I can’t stop laughing at Bavasi. I should be crying. But, right now, I can’t stop laughing.

  61. mln on December 15th, 2005 12:23 pm

    How about a trade for Jon Garland. There are reports that the Sox want to deal Garland after they got Javier Vasquez.

  62. Melvin Bob on December 15th, 2005 12:50 pm

    #61 Why? Garland is a free agent after this year and the ChiSox organization believes that he is dead-set on testing the free agent market.

  63. Evan on December 15th, 2005 1:18 pm

    You can’t win an argument with Derek when the topic is beer. Derek’s the beer guru.

    Speaking of which, it’s a good week to visit Vancouver. Steamworks is pouring their RoggenWeizen.

  64. mark from Oly. wa. on December 15th, 2005 1:43 pm

    Suddenly, Moyer resigning looks better.

  65. KingCorran on December 15th, 2005 3:03 pm

    A step in the right direction:

    “MLB.com has learned that the Mariners are no longer pursuing right-hander Scott Elarton. They remain in the mix for Scott Boras clients Kevin Millwood and Jarrod Washburn.”

  66. LB on December 15th, 2005 3:38 pm

    #57: What Bill James actually said:

    I created a good part of the analytical paradigm that the statistical analysts advocate, and certainly I believe in that paradigm and I advocate it within the Red Sox front office. But at the same time, the real world is too complicated to be explained by that paradigm. It is one thing to build an analytical paradigm that leaves out leadership, hustle, focus, intensity, courage and self-confidence; it is a very, very different thing to say that leadership, hustle, courage and self-confidence do not exist or do not play a role on real-world baseball teams. The people who think that way…not to be rude, but they’re children. They may be 40-year-old children, they may be 70-year-old children, but their thinking is immature.

  67. Jim Thomsen on December 15th, 2005 4:45 pm

    Jon Garland is career-peak Jarrod Washburn. A mediocrity who benefitted from a peak skills year (part of the year … he faded badly down the stretch) and high run support. Expect him to go back to being a faceless, league-average innings sponge in 2006.

    In other words … pass.

  68. Dave on December 15th, 2005 5:12 pm

    I did mean Schlitz. I am to beer knowledge as Willie Bloomquist is to home run derbies.

    And Garland is significantly better than Washburn. He’s a groundball guy who throws strikes and has solid average stuff. But there’s no way he’s worth the $10-12 mil he’ll get in arbitration plus the three good players/prospects it will take to trade for him.

  69. Bela Txadux on December 15th, 2005 7:56 pm

    I’m almost shocked this offseason by how poorly the Ms FO seems to be thinking.

    Lessee, what’s gone right? Johjima fell into Bill B.’s lap, and he shook hands rather than standing up. Small credit there, but credit still. The Torrealba trade was nicely worked; that shows _someone_ in the FO understands the value of minorleaguers in other systems. I’m by no means sure that Bill is the one with the understanding, but still this was a nice little deal. Guardado and Moyer are somewhat problematic retentions, but they are popular, still effective, and reasonably priced in relation to the market; not bad moves, with real upsides, but structurally dictated since they’re already here, i.e. no-brainers more or less.

    The entirety of the _majorleaguers_ linked to the Ms in rumors or actual signings is an almost incredibly bad lot. Everett, Ponson, Washburn, Morris: one simply cannot, CANNOT improve a team significantly with dross of that tensile strength, and all of those guys are almost ridiculously expensive for their lack of production. Juan Pierre is no improvement on anyone here, and a bunch more expensive. I like Reed for Clement if it’s balanced with more coming back from Boston; I suspect that the Bosox proposed this one, though, not the Ms. Bavasi doesn’t have a lot of major leaguers to trade—it’s Reed alone, unless he wants to put Beltre or Guardado in play which evidently he has no stomach for. In that sense, I’d want to cut Bavasi some slack for getting shut out of one of the best trading markets in years—but he’s paid to find a way, and he hasn’t. Nice guy finishing out of the money is what he is.

    If beyond Johjima and Moyer it turns out that Everett, Washburn, and a few NRIs is the best Bavasi can do to save his job, I would far, far rather that the team fires him now so that in losing 90+ again the organization at least isn’t saddled with more albatross contracts. I don’t need to watch more guys of the Cirillo-Baldwin-Aurilia calibre which is exactly what we’re talking about here, rejects for loser organizations. A _very_ depressing offseason so far.

  70. Jeff Nye on December 15th, 2005 8:15 pm

    Mods, delete this if you don’t want this in this thread, but here’s the (probably form) reply I got back from the Mariners about my Carl Everett email:

    Dear Jeff,

    Thank you for your email – our apologies for the delayed response. We received a
    number of e-mails prior to signing Carl Everett and they were shared with some
    of the organizational vice presidents. We welcome your comments and appreciate
    the passion with which you have expressed your opinion. As you may have heard,
    the Seattle Mariners have signed Carl Everett to a one-year contract.

    We believe Carl Everett will be an asset to the Mariners both on and off the
    field. We are aware of the issues that Carl had in the past, but we believe he
    has dealt with them and has successfully moved on. We hope fans will give him a
    chance here in Seattle.

    As with every player we sign, Bill Bavasi and his staff have done a thorough job
    researching Carl. They have talked to numerous people throughout the game of
    baseball, including Ozzie Guillen, his manager last season. They are confident
    that Carl’s intensity, enthusiasm and competitive spirit will be a good for our
    team both on the field and in the clubhouse. As a switch-hitter, he will
    provide our lineup with versatility and the left-handed run production we need.

    In addition, we like that Carl was a big contributor to a World Series
    Championship team in Chicago last year, when he batted .251 with 23 home runs
    and 87 RBI. In the post-season, he batted .300.

    Once again, thank you for taking the time to let us know your thoughts. We are
    looking forward to the 2006 season. We believe we have a good foundation in
    place with exciting young players like Felix Hernandez, Yuniesky Betancourt and
    Jose Lopez, and experienced veterans like Jamie Moyer, Richie Sexson, Adrian
    Beltre and Raul Ibañez. We still have work to do, but our goal is to become a
    championship caliber team as quickly as possible. We hope you will be there
    with us for all the excitement of Mariners baseball in 2006 and beyond.

    Seattle Mariners Fancare

  71. joealb on December 15th, 2005 11:06 pm

    Dave, I really did get the Sh**s from Schlitz! which is why I think it fits into the context of your writing. Jeff Nye, I received the same form letter from the front office and even though I know they wont read my response I sent them back a note telling them that form letters are an insult to my intelligence.