Outfield flies, Safeco Field, Jarrod Washburn
We’ve discussed the Washburn deal to death in the past few days, so, if you’re checking the blog for our thoughts on the signing, those threads are a good place to start.
However, since the deal is now official, I want to expound on a point that is basically the major sticking point between those who like the signing and those who don’t. Jarrod Washburn has some really severe home/road splits in two of the past three seasons. Supporters of the Washburn signing repeatedly point to his road ERA as a sign of his true talent level, and the argument goes that taking him away from Edison Field will significantly help his performance.
However, as Jeff Sullivan demonstrated over at Lookout Landing, the entirity of the difference between Washburn’s home/road performances has been in the ratio of home runs per fly ball that he’s allowed. At Edison Field, 11.3 percent of his flyballs have left the yard. On the road, just 8.9 percent of his flyballs have gone for home runs. The league average is 11 percent, so it would appear that the abberation here is the road HR/FB ratio. However, his home HR/FB ratio is actually a little higher than we’d expect as well, because as we’ll see in a second, Edison Field significantly neutralizes home runs.
Thanks to the great batted ball information the guys at the Hardball Times have, we can break down the differences between Safeco and Edison on a per-outfield-fly basis.
Per OF Fly Safeco Edison Difference Fair Outs 3.30% 1.30% 2.00% Foul Outs 13.80% -25.00% 38.80% Singles -21.00% 20.00% -41.00% Doubles -11.00% 1.70% -12.70% Triple -30.00% -17.00% -13.00% Home Run -11.00% -10.00% -1.00%
Here’s what the table says, essentially. A flyball is 3.3 percent more likely to be caught in fair territory than in an average ballpark. It is 1.3 percent more likely to be caught in Edison Field than average. So, Washburn was clearly not pitching in a park that was detrimental to flyball pitchers.
Below that, we have the break down for each hit type per flyball. You’ll see the huge positive number for singles and the large negative number for triples and home runs. Essentially, what this tells us is that flyballs in Anaheim are far more likely to end up as a single than in most parks, but far less likely to end up as a triple or home run. Essentially, Edison converts homers and triples into singles and outs. Which is why, as a whole, it’s pitcher friendly.
Safeco has a very similar home run to fly ball factor, but it destroys all other types of hits in a way that Edison can’t match. Essentially, the real effect of Safeco on run scoring isn’t as much in its home run prevention, where its above average but not earth shatteringly so, but in singles/doubles/triples prevention, where its a monster. Safeco also has the added bonus of generating flyballs (5.6 percent more than an average park), so not only does it turn flyballs into outs, but by creating more flyballs than normal, its compoundings its advantage.
Safeco is a great park for flyball pitchers. But Edison Field is a pretty good one for pitchers, too. And, when looking at the real reason Washburn struggled at home versus his road performance-HR to FB ratio-Safeco offers a minimal improvement.
Safeco should help Jarrod Washburn. But Edison should have helped Jarrod Washburn too.
Comments
110 Responses to “Outfield flies, Safeco Field, Jarrod Washburn”
I have no idea if this is recorded or not, but does home run distance distribution indicate something about how a pitcher is affected by park effects? There’s likely to be large swings in this “stat” from year to year, since it’s not likely to be something a pitcher can control. However, say a pitcher gives up a smaller percentage of “short” homers in a year in comparison with a league average pitcher, this is likely to lead to an artificially deflated home run rate and a “good looking” ERA. This is probably not recorded, though, and maybe not statistically relevant, with home run rate being more indicative.
Given that Washburn gave up way more singles than anything else last year, do you think he’ll pitch drastically differently in Safeco? It woiuld seem that a lot of the hits that should have been for extra bases which were converted to singles will be converted to outs, right?
Very interesting information, Dave. Thanks for compiling the list – can we infer that the team’s defense contributes to the singles percentage? That just seems insanely low for such a large park.
Link to the press release:
Propaganda Site
The interesting thing Bavasi said was:
That concerns me (implying no more pitching will be obtained) and comforts me (Jeremy Reed may stay).
Isn’t it the case, though, that the California parks – both Anaheim and Oakland – play very differently in night games after the cold damp Pacific air rolls in? HR’s become harmless flyballs in night games there. I don’t have stats to prove this, but I don’t think that Safeco has such a large day/night split. It seems to me that any serious attempt to quantify park effects would have to take this into account.
I cannot find career double situational splits for Washburn (or anyone else) on the web, but mlb.com has last season’s data. In 2005, the guy was absolutely abysmal in night games at home. In 2 daytime starts, he gave up 2 HR’s in 10 IP and recorded a 9.00 ERA. In 10 nighttime starts, he gave up 5 HR over 62 IP with a 3.19 ERA.
Of course, the sample size of 2 games is ridiculously small, but I’d be curious to know if anyone can tell me where to older data.
Ahem: Of course, the sample size of 2 games is ridiculously small, but I’d be curious to know if anyone can tell me where to get the older data.
Mariners Drop Anchor, Sign Washburn for Four Years
Wow, what an epically bad signing. What are the comparables? Mo Vaughn? Wayne Garland? Jeff Cirillo/Kevin Jarvis?
Jeopardy answer is: franchise crippline long term contracts.
In other words, we’ve spent all our money.
Yuck. Massive crash landing to what started off as a promising off season.
Tom Davis, I quoted the same thing in the Arroyo thread, and had the exact same thought
At least if they really are done, and Reed for Arroyo isn’t happening, then the size of the smoking crater that is this offseason is a little smaller.
Maybe all the damage that will be done is done and we can look forward to the Mariners firing Bavasi and moving forward next season.
The amusing part to me is that the Mariners Mail email that was just sent out about it obviously had some very overworked staff member doing a bad copy-paste job from the Everett email:
SWITCH-HITTING VETERAN TO PLAY OF & DH
The Mariners, who have stockpiled young pitching over the past
18 months through a variety of trades, signed veteran free-agent
pitcher Jarrod Washburn to a 4-year deal today.
Dave,
With this as the “end” of the offseason for the Mariners, what is the best case scenario for next season? 75 wins? 80?
Career-wise home runs seem to be the difference between Washburn’s Edison Field and road stats. But that hasn’t been the case recently. In 2005 he managed to give up home runs at a higher rate on the road (1.03 per 9 on the road vs. .87 at home). The difference in Washburn’s 2005 home road splits was in batting average against (.265 road vs. .287 home).
Those numbers make Safeco Field like the perfect change of pace from Angel Stadium. Safeco is 41% better at suppressing singles than is Angel Stadium. That’s a huge swing.
Welcome to Seattle, Mr. Washburn.
Due to the official signing of Jarrod Washburn, who is likely to get traded, non-tendered, or designated for assignment?
The M’s today are probably about an 84 win team. The additions and subtractions should help this team score more than 700 runs and allow fewer than 700. The differential will depend on how well certain players improve themselves (Beltre, Pineiro, Reed, Lopez, etc.)
The beauty of this team is that it gets the M’s closer to respectability without tying up the future budget. Including player making the minimum and arbitration eligibles, the 2007 M’s should be standing at about $65 million, which leaves plenty of room for improvement in a market that will (hopefully) have better talent to offer.
If Safeco is 41% better at supressing singles, what would Ichiro be hitting in a single friendly park?
And here it is, in my inbox. Instead of a reassuring letter from Chuck Armstrong (like in the Carl Everett signing), I have a reassuring letter from Bill Bavasi…that makes it sound like, indeed, the offseason moves are done. Or at least the major ones…Here it is, for your reading pleasure.
Dear Mariners Season Ticket Holders,
As we enter the final weeks of 2005, I have been asked to review the Mariners’ off-season moves for our season ticket holders, and I welcome the opportunity.
This afternoon the Mariners announced the signing of lefty starting pitcher Jarrod Washburn to a four-year contract. He improves our starting rotation and brings us not only experience, but experience in the AL West and in big games. He knows what it takes to win. At this point, the rotation also includes Jamie Moyer, Joel Piniero, Felix Hernandez and Gil Meche. Two key pitching decisions were re-signing Jamie, and exercising the option on closer Eddie Guardado to lead our solid bullpen.
Regarding our other major acquisitions during the off-season, catcher Kenji Johjima is a very, very good player, an All-Star and Gold Glove winner the past seven seasons in Japan. He loves to play the game and will solidify the position for us, both defensively and offensively. We expect young Rene Rivera to back him up, and we are high on two outstanding catching prospects at the top levels of our farm system – Jeff Clement and Rob Johnson.
Primarily as our everyday designated hitter, Carl Everett brings a lefthanded bat to the middle of our lineup. Because he is a switch-hitter and can play the outfield from time to time, Carl adds some flexibility to Mike Hargrove’s roster.
We know there is still work to do, but we have added some key pieces to the foundation that was laid in 2005 – veterans Ichiro, Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez at the corner positions and talented youngsters Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez and Jeremy Reed up the middle.
Somewhat under the radar, but important to our plan are the moves we’ve made to re-stock our farm system with pitching prospects. Over the past 18 months, we have acquired ten good arms in trades, led by Jesse Foppert, Yorman Bazardo, Marcos Carvajal and Nate Mateo.
The fan support in the Northwest for Mariners Baseball is outstanding, and is an important part of creating an environment for success. Thank you for your support as a season ticket holder. We hope you enjoy the holidays!
Sincerely,
Bill Bavasi
General Manager, Seattle Mariners
Oh, and note the mention of Jeremy Reed’s name…making it sound like he might be sticking around…
It’s not really 41% better at supressing singles overall as it is 41% better at suppressing singles on outfield fly balls. Given that Ichiro is a fairly extreme groundball hitter, I don’t think he’d be that much better somewhere else (although there’d certainly be some kind of difference).
I know this is off-topic, but I cant find a topic to put this under that people might read.
[off-topic]
Note that Bavasi pegs Meche as a member of the rotation and neglects to mention Ryan Franklin.
Anyway, I can’t tell you how reassured I am by the fact that Jarrod Washburn knows what it takes to win. God only knows what he might’ve done on the mound if he didn’t realize that the point is to outscore the opposition.
#16 – I do have to give Bavasi credit for picking up a high quantity of young arms over the past 1 1/2 – 2 years. Notice I said quantity and not necessarily quality. I think with young pitching, however, you almost have to use the “throw spaghetti at the wall” theory and see what sticks. It’s one of the more volatile currencies to deal in w/r/t baseball.
In terms of how many wins this team is going to have, I’d say it’s going to be somewhere between 72 and 78 wins. There’s no way that I see this team having a > .500 record with the roster as it’s currently configured. I certainly hope that Bavasi isn’t completely done. The bench is still atrocious and Wee Willie B. is still on this team, not mention “The Dobber”. I’d rather see them stock the bench with a bunch of AAA guys than go with Bloomquist and Dobbs again. Oh wait, Dobbs and Bloomquist *are* AAA guys, my bad.
Maybe I’m dumb, but can someone tell me what w/t/r means please?
w/r/t = with respect to
When used in conjunction with the M’s, however, “w/r/t” also means “We’re Really Terrible!”
Geez, what a “I have good news, I just saved a bundle on my car insurance” moment this offseason has been.
When Bavasi was first hired, I posted on a few weblogs (not this one) as Mo Vaughn, and implied that I would be coming to Seattle to work for my biggest fan.
I thought it was funny at the time. Now it seems like a self fulfilling prophecy. Now we know what it would be like if Isaiah Thomas ran a baseball team. If only this was simply the best episode of Punk’d ever.
Bavasi’s done some good things, no doubt. We’re not knocking the Washburn signing because we hate Bavasi. In fact, for most of the past 12 months, most of our readers have said we’ve been too soft on him.
We’re knocking the Washburn signing because it was a terrible decision.
Ah…I always thought it meant something like ‘Way to Read the Thread’ from context. Thanks guys.
Truth be told, as of right now, I am GLAD this offseason is over. There will be no moving of Jeremy Reed for Bronson Arroyo, no overpaying for another Boras pitcher, no trading away of any of our prospects for mediocre Florida Marlins leftovers, and no acquiring of overpaid New York pitchers.
I dont know if this is a good thing to say or not, but when you consider that our offseason could have ended up much worse, knowing it is over is rather comforting. It seems to me that Bavasi really is trying to rebuild the farm system, with the stockpiling of arms, keeping our current prospects, and preserving draft picks. If Bill isn’t kept on after the end of this season, then we may not be able to see his long term plan of rebuilding complete.
Even the Everett signing isn’t a sacrifice of young talent. One, maybe two at the most, years while our promising outfield prospects Adam Jones, et al, mature for the major leagues. I think the Washburn signing is a prime example of the long term rebuilding process. We need SOMEONE for the next four years to throw the ball. The only people we know for sure are going to be here for a while are Felix and Washburn. Moyer is done, I think Pineiro is gone after this year, Franklin’s already ditched, and Meche will be gone with Pineiro. What pitchers do we have even close to being ML ready? Nageotte? Foppert? Livingston? Are we sure that we can rely only on them?
If this is the method to the madness, then I am okay with it. The problem is, Bavasi may not be around to see his flower blossom.
#28 – While I agree that it could’ve been worse (acquiring Juan Pierre, paying big bucks for BJ Ryan instead of re-signing Guardado, etc), it could have been better. I think all of us hope for the best though.
There’s a reason that Dave makes his own offseason plan and then makes the “What’s the M’s will probably do” plan. The wishes of the general blog populace and the M’s wishes are quite different sometimes.
The thing that concerns me is that we never seem to acquire any young position players/hitters in any of Bavasi’s trades. I know that the entire farm system needs some TLC, but it seems that they’ve made no effort to acquire young hitters (with the exception of the Garcia trade). Does this mean that the M’s think they have enough guys in the minors ready to contribute in the OF, etc in the next year or two? I just don’t see any impact OF’s coming up through the ranks personally, so that’s why I ask.
Flower blossom for the Mariners?
Probably “The Hundered Year Bloom,” like on The Simpsons.
Also under the radar it will be interesting to notice if there is an improvement in Mariner’s pitchers due to the pitching coach change.
What is the best move for the FO to make now to address the LF positionin order to take advantage of home park? It can’t be Raul and Everett in left hopefully. Bavasi must certainly plan on more roster moves.
The Angels have been scary quiet.
What is the best move for the FO to make now to address the LF position in order to take advantage of home park? It can’t be Raul and Everett in left hopefully.
According to Doug Miller’s M’s mailbag, it’s…Morse
was washburn arbitration eligible? ie do we loose a draft pick?
He was, but the Angels thought so much of him, they declined to offer him arbitration. So no, we don’t lose a draft pick.
thats what i meant … offered … thanks … but a little good news i guess. so as i recall we didnt loose any picks this year. nice. its been a few years.
Sort of back to the topic of Washburn’s presence in Safeco…
I understand how a park can be a detriment (or a plus) to singles, doubles, triples, and homeruns. But I’m stumped by a statement you made that Safeco generates more flyballs. How is that possible? How can a park efffect the amount of flyballs it has? I always thought groundballs and flyballs were more an effect of the pitcher or hitter.
We don’t have a good answer for that, really. But the data is very real. Certain parks clearly have a consistent history of being far away enough from the norm in GB/FB rates to call it statistically significant, despite changing rosters, and the effects are equal for both home and road teams. The data says that parks influence GB/FB rates. We only really have guesses as to why.
For Safeco, my guess is that pitcher’s change their approach, knowing they have a monstrous outfield behind them. They’re willing to throw more pitches that are intended to induce flyballs because of the increased likelyhood of them being turned into an out.
But it could be something totally different. It could be the mounds. It could be something in the hitters eye. We don’t really know. But the effect is definitely there.
Re: 36 (“Safeco generates more flyballs”)
That caught my eye too. My best guess is that there are so many more flyballs in Safeco because Seattle has made a commitment to flyball pitchers in order to take advantage of Safeco’s spacious dimensions. Thus, more flyball pitchers leads to more flyballs.
If that statement was generated by comparing Seattle’s pitching staff at home to Seattle’s pitching staff on the road (as in, the Seattle Mariners allow more flyballs at home than on the road), then I’m stumped again.
Except Dave said it does it to opposing teams as well. Too bad correlation does not denote causation or maybe we’d have a miracle on our hands.
Washburn is a pitcher that can and will bring quality starts to the rotation and that will make the Mariners a better team . He is the best value on the FA market and Bill is smart to sign him.Meche should rebound and Joel is in better health. So stop with the doom and gloom we will be better in 06
Well, since Jim said so…
Clap louder, everyone! Or Tinkerbell will die!
With respect to how a ballpark is rated as a flyball park…doesn’t one need to take into consideration the pitchers who have pitched there?
The Ms have had a preponderence of pitchers who tend to be flyball pitchers. Can we say that Safeco is a flyball park or should we say that the Seattle pitching staff is not been very good at missing bats?
Re. #40 & #41:
Well, Dave, I wonder if those ellipsis that you used in your previous post were meant to display blunt sarcasm? Yes, I believe that they were . . .
Anyhow, for whatever it’s worth, I’ve always claimed that “adages such as ‘doom and gloom’ are occasionally more sound, valid, and logical than statistical analysis.”
Yeah, you know, I don’t like to use blunt sarcasm, but rather dry sarcasm . . .
The M’s hitters hit more flyballs at Safeco than they do on the road, too.
well, at least Bill remembers that Ichiro is one of the Valuable Mariner Veterans in his letter …. fwiw, Hickey flat says the cost of pitching this off-season means the Ms are now done with free agency
Has anyone mentioned that Washburn was investigated for charges of having sex with a sixteen year old girl in the Angels clubhouse? I don’t care if the charges were acquitted, the idea of giving an alleged child molester nine million is sickening.
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/5701505
Sorry if it’s already been posted somewhere, but rotoworld just said the deal is for 37.5 mil over 4 years.
Well, that’s good. I don’t think I could take much more of our free agent signings.
That being said, if the finances are shot, the logical consequence of trading Reed for Arroyo is Willie Bloomquist, starting CF for Your Seattle Mariners.
Look at the upside- we won’t hear Willie whining about not being a starter while he hits an incredibly empty .260.
In response to an earlier post, here is a list of the current free agent pitchers for 2006-2007. All of the obviously talented guys will sign deals or be traded well in advance of Washburn wearing out his welcome at Safeco ~ approximately August 6, 2006.
http://www.mlb4u.com/0607FA.html
RHSP:
Paul Wilson (Team Option)
Wade Miller
Jon Garland
Tomo Ohka
Gil Meche
Jose Contreras
Kevin Jarvis
Greg Maddux
Brian Moehler
Jason Schmidt
Jeff Suppan
Rick Helling
Woody Williams
Brad Radke
Kerry Wood (Mutual Option)
Mike Mussina (Team Option)
Cory Lidle
Kelvim Escobar
Chan Ho Park
Jose Contreras
Ryan Franklin
Orlando Hernandez
Jaret Wright (Team + Player Void options)
Kip Wells
Jason Marquis
Vicente Padilla
Adam Eaton
Tim Wakefield (Annual Team Renew Option)
LHSP:
Ted Lilly
Mark Redman
Tom Glavine
Jamie Moyer
Andy Pettitte
Mark Mulder
Barry Zito
Doug Davis
Randy Wolf
Mark Buerhle (Team Option)
David Wells
Wilson Alvarez (Retired)
Darrell May
Eric Milton (Void Option)
Well now I really want to see what Millwood ends up signing for. It’s just painful to think that, if he signs for say 5 years and $55 million, we end up with this trade-off…
Washburn: ~$9.5 million per
Millwood: $11 million per + 1 extra year
It’s just amazing that somebody would look at that comparison and decide on Washburn. Almost $10 million a year for Washburn….I still can’t believe it…
This is all about who and how many quality start the M’s will have in 06 check the stats Washburn is all about quality starts . What else can a pitcher or a GM do but put up quality starts and in the end fly balls, singles, doubles don’t count, the only thing that is totaled at the end of the game is runs……. and the last I looked Washburn allowed less than 4 ………
From Rotoworld:
Jarrod Washburn’s four-year deal with the Mariners is worth $37.5 million.
$9.375 million per year for a 31-year-old with an iffy elbow and a declining strikeout rates. “Jarrod is a proven major league winner who immediately makes us better in the starting rotation,” said GM Bill Bavasi. He’s probably right, but there were other ways to get better in the rotation. And this proven winner has topped 11 victories once in his career.
and how many wins did Burnett post and what was his era how about Byrd and his era or for that matter Clement You guys are all nay sayers, Cy Young would get a bad rap from you much less Nolan Ryan(too many pitches per 9 innings).
Re. #47:
Yeah, if the Jarrod Washburn was acquitted of the sexual assault charges that were brought against him, then we can’t hold it against him.
Yet, regarldess of Washburn and Carl Everett, I’m not quite sure as to which of the following things is worse on the spectrum of illicitness: child abuse or statutory rape?
I would say that those abovementioned issues are lighter topics than the current state of the Seattle Mariners franchise, but that would be remarkably tactless to most people—which is why I wrote it.
You know, Jim, you’re really not going to convince anyone of anything around here using wins as any kind of metric of pitcher effectiveness. If you want to do some research and learn about ways to actually evaluate players, we’ll be glad to show you some places to start.
If, on the other hand, you want to just calls us dorks who don’t know the game, then go away.
How much is left in the budget now (I know this is hard to nail down)? Is jacques Jones out of the question? He declined the Twins offer of arb, though I believe that he was looking for $20 million over 3 years, which sounds pricey. I would think that there’s no way they are looking at him unless perhaps a Reed-for-pitching deal comes down.
I guess that you have to totally PC even if the charged were dropped give me a break….. let he who is without sin cast the first stone…………
#52 – wait, so if ERA is the only thing that counts, do we ignore 2004? Or 2003? Of course it isn’t the only thing that counts, and things like Ks, walks, and extra base hits really do matter.
I actually believe you don’t mean what you’re saying, you’re just trying to antagonize people.
#59 are out to win or just look good trying
I guess that you have to totally PC even if the charged were dropped
Yes.
You do.
That’s the American way.
Though, apparently looking at all the evidence is out of fashion in America these days; you’ve looked at it in neither case, since you’ve made up your mind without looking below the surface. Give ME a break from such shallow thinking.
#47, 55. and FWIW, charges weren’t ‘acquitted’ or ‘dropped’ because charges were never filed. There was an accusation, an investigation, and nothing further, due, if memory serves to credibility problems with the accuser.
Methinks “Mr.” black is trolling here.
*sigh*
That’s as inexplicable to me as this signing. Why not pay the extra $2 million for a substantially better arm??????
the only thing seems to be Boras’ insistance on the 5th year for Millwood — unless they have had word from the always-upfront and trythfull Scott that Kevin wouldn’t come here…
We are being made fun of….
http://www.halosheaven.com/story/2005/12/16/214455/35#commenttop
Apparently the Blog world of other teams seems to think Bavasi made a good choice…Or maybe they are disguising being thankful it wasn’t their team that gave the contract.
In reference to #66, does anyone have a post analyzing this deal from a non M’s fan point of view? The Halo writers have a point. People on this site (including me) seem to be more negative about certain moves because of the M’s history. We tend to make the bad worse than it probably is.
That being said, I think this deal sucks and the franchise is doomed, but I’m wondering what other sabermetric people are saying about Washburn. Anyone have some exterior posts?
#67: Baseball think factory has its ZIPS projection and anaylsis of Washburn at this link: (scroll down)
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/
Also interesting, I thought, were the ZIPS projections of the entire team. Getting that kind of projection from Johjima would be very nice, but unlikely.
well, as mentioned earlier, over at mlb.com Seth Everett & Darryl Hamilton think Bavasi pulled off a coup by sneaking in and getting Washburn
Re. Halo’s Heaven:
The negative comment toward Kurt Cobain at http://www.halosheaven.com/story/2005/12/16/214455/35#commenttop was a shot below the belt. As it is, though, at least Cobain’s cause of death is debatable, while Mr. Skacore himself, Bradley Nowell, undoubtedly died from overdosing on heroin.
Besides, the above paragraph notwithstanding, I’d rather live in the Puget Sound region instead of Anaheim or Long Beach any day of the week.
I could not care less about what any of the pretenders say about player acquisitions, since every last one of them use wins and pure ERA as their evidence of whether a pitcher is good or not.
Halos Heaven is a lousy website. Trust me, it’s not worth reading.
Dave,
What are line drives categorized under? I’m assuming that they fall under FBs when looking at the pitching statistics on ESPN.
Also, I’m assuming that foul fly outs and HRs are also considered to be fly balls. Is this also true?
Just curious as to how batted balls are recorded if you know anything about that.
My word ,you mean I’m not the only one that thinks Washburn is the best value f/a pitcher. gee I guess runs allowed do count, thanks to Seth and Hamilton.
#68 – Thanks, that’s something at least.
#69 – good try, but people on the M’s payroll are excluded from my definition of non-bias.
#72 – You may be right, but that’s a sweet logo at the top of their website. That must count for something.
Sorry Jim, but finding others who are similarly ignorant doesn’t make your case any more credible.
Dave, sorry I don’t agree with you. Does that make me ignorant or you narrow minded
Jim,
I could care less if you agree with me or not. That’s not what you makes you ignorant.
You’re ignorant because you don’t understand player evaluation. That’s not a personal attack; it’s just a statement of truth. I don’t understand the theory of astrophysics. No big deal. You don’t understand baseball talent evaluation. Same thing.
Someone’s missing the part of the comment guidelines about author abuse!
Dave, in the end the results will tell the tail if Bill or you are right on Washburn. Only Bill has his job on the line, I guess he is as ignorant as I.
I still think Millwood will sign for four years for about 11/per. (and I don’t think we chose Washburn over Millwood because of the lower per-year salary). I think the Mariners signed Washburn because Bavasi’s biggest fear was waiting for Millwood’s decision, not getting him, and thus being shut out of getting any of the big free-agent pitchers.
Just like last year, where we wanted Delgado more than Sexson, but signed Sexson because we didn’t want to wait on Delgado’s decision.
Bavasi isn’t willing to wait a long time for the #1 target if it means risking not getting anybody. Missing out on everybody would be the worst outcome for Bavasi’s job security.
Dave, sorry I don’t agree with you. Does that make me ignorant or you narrow minded
Ignorant, given your general lack of knowledge and unAmerican comments.
But you can change that. Prove your point by making a POSTIIVE argument. Argue that Washburn is a good signing by using stats. Be prepared to defend your assertions. “I disagree” is not good enough; you have to SHOW the rest of us, not TELL us.
To Jim:
The main reason as to why Bill Bavasi has a job as an executive for a Major League Baseball team is because his father, Emil “Buzzie” Bavasi, was a former baseball executive during the ’50s, ’60s, and ’70s; it has very little, if nothing at all, to do with his supposed ability to evaluate talent or properly manage a franchise.
I understand a little bit about astrophysics- there’s no one theory behind it. Neither is there One True Metric regarding player evaluation.
That being said, a contract that hands out 9+ million a year for four years to a pitcher with declining velocity and other questionable metrics isn’t very defensible. Could it work out well for the M’s? Possibly- there’s enough uncertainty in statistical evaluation of pitchers that Washburn could defy odds and perform well. And if you went down to Vegas and put your mortgage money on Black 24, you could end up a big winner. Typically, though, people who do this don’t, and Washburn’s a poor bet to return value commensurate to his contract.
That being said, I’m pretty sure the USSM authors will have the integrity to admit error in their evaluations- as they did when Raul Ibañez outperformed their projections when he was signed in 2003. Bu also keep in mind that they were also considerably OVER-optimistic about the 2004-2005 seasons.
Re. #47:
Washburn was not aquitted, the policed dropped the charges. Stadium security cameras showed him sign an autograph for the girl and then go into the clubhouse. Security personell are seen at the door of the clubhouse, and the girl is seen leaving the area.
It was a case of a young girl bringing up false charges, not a ballplayer molesting anyone.
Dave, in the end the results will tell the tail if Bill or you are right on Washburn.
Then basically, you’re conceding the argument (and not very gracefully at that), and showing that you ARE ignorant.
Dave made an argument, projecting from a selection of facts.
You have nothing; you’re just trolling by disagreeing, without doing any hard work by basing your disagreements in facts.
That’s both stupid and not very interesting. You’re just making it obvious that Dave is having a duel of wits with an unarmed man—or, at least, someone who’s throwing his weapons away without making an even token effort. C’mon, defend your stance; don’t just throw rocks/ Who knows….if your argument is strong enough, you could change some minds. But ya gotta bring something to the table….
Edgar is Good – I like that explanation. There must be a rational reason why this signing occured, and I think you hit the nail on the head. It’s a matter of incentives. Bill is not worried about what happens in 4 years, he cares about what matters this year.
Seth Everett. I think Ken Rosenthal has been involved in some sort of bad DNA cloning experiment, and the result was Seth Everett. And I mean that in a good way… or not.
The kind of guys that think the Tigers should have paid more for I-Rod, and signed an even longer contract.
Edgar is Good – I like that explanation. There must be a rational reason why this signing occured, and I think you hit the nail on the head. It’s a matter of incentives. Bill is not worried about what happens in 4 years, he cares about what matters this year.
Yeah, that’s rational, but then it seems like Bavasi lost his nerve and way overspent on a pitcher who’s not nearly as good as his salary. I thought he had better nerves than that.
Hm. Doesn’t it seem to me that if you’re going to open the wallet, it’s better to overspend on a #2 pitcher (particularly when you have a #1 in the making) than it is to overspend on a #3 or (more probably) a #4?
Roger Tang–
I agree it would have been better to overspend on Millwood. But he’s not going to sign a 4-year deal right now. And either Bavasi or the higher-ups aren’t allowing a 5-year contract to a pitcher.
Like I said, I bet if Millwood would sign a 4/44 contract today, the M’s would do it. But he’s not, so they had to go to Plan 1A (in their minds– to me it’s Plan D, at best).
Found this somewhat complementary evaluation of Washburn on an Angels site advocating NOT signing him for roughly what we signed him for. Let’s hope they’re right about his abilities and his switch from fly-ball to ground-ball pitcher.
http://anaheimangelsblog.blogspot.com/2005/10/fifth-wheel-angels-enter-this.html
Chintan, thanks, I’ve never taken a look at ZIPS before and find it fascinating. Did anyone notice that Livingston grades out as the M’s 2nd best starter according to ZIPS. I know that a lot of variables go into this kind of thing but heck wouldn’t Livingston cost the M’s the league minimum….
I wouldn’t put -that- much faith in the ZIPS stats, considering that they don’t know who’s on the team or what positions they play.
Argumentum ad populum.
Red herring, false dilemma.
Argumentum ad verecundiam.
Logical fallacies: learn ‘em, love ‘em, avoid ‘em if you want to make an effective argument.
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/
Not that Zips is worth anything, but the part I, as a basher of the Everett and Washburn moves, loves:
W, L, ERA, GS, IP, H, ER, HR, BB, K
Player A 10 9 4.27 28 28 179.0 193 85 22 35 98
Player B 9 10 4.55 29 29 176.0 183 89 23 51 102
Player A? Livingston, Salary? 330K
Player B? Washburn, Salary? 9.25M
If you can spot what’s wrong with the above picture, you will a lollypop.
About the GB/FB rate in Safeco – Dave mentioned there isn’t an answer, but it could be… the hitters eye.”
Safeco radically changed the hitter’s eye a couple of seasons ago (went from green paint to a special light-absorbing black wierd surface, after flirting with a patch of evergreen shrubs). The difference seems quite dramatic from the stands. If you can split the stats our before and after the changes to the hitter’s eye, you might be able to either eliminate it as a possible explanation, or enhance the plausibility.
Personally though, I would agree the most likely possibility is pitchers changing their approach based on the way fly balls die in the OF.
Dave, in the end the results will tell the tail [sic] if you or Bill are [sic] right on Washburn
You just proved Dave’s point. If you’re relying on the outcome to judge whether Bill made a good decision right now, aren’t you conceding that you can’t tell yourself?
Bill made a decision. Do you think he doesn’t have an idea right now if he was right, and that he’s waiting for Washburn’s performance before he’s sure? No. Bill made a decision based on available evidence. Dave also made a decision based on available evidence. These decisions need to be evaluated based on evidence available at the time the decisions were made… otherwise, all decisions made by people who can’t see the future (ie, everyone) are just guesses.
Don’t make me pull out my Gary Gygax reference.
I wouldn’t put -that- much faith in the ZIPS stats, considering that they don’t know who’s on the team or what positions they play.
ZIPS is park adjusted. If you don’t believe me, check the Colorado Rockies ZIPS thread.
Pocket Lint says the offseason may still be in progress for the M’s:
Even with Jarrod Washburn in the rotation, the Mariners are still in the trade market for another starting pitcher.
And while outfielder Jeremy Reed may be the leading candidate to go in any deal, the Boston Red Sox aren’t the only possible destination.
An industry source maintains that the New York Yankees are another possible trading partner.
“Watch the situation with Johnny Damon,” the source said. “Seattle could wind up trading Reed to the club that doesn’t get Damon to play center.”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2002693075_marinotes20.html
You have to wonder, of course, if the “industry source” is the same guy who thought Arroyo was a ground ball pitcher with a great sinker.
#98 I don’t understand that article at all. If the M’s are “willing to take on a pitcher with a sizeable salary,” then why not sign Kevin Millwood or Jeff Weaver? How are Pavano, Arroyo, and Clement better options than those two? Furthermore, if Reed is traded, then that means Corey Patterson will probably be a Mariner. I don’t care how you spin it, Arroyo/Pavano/Clement and Patterson is not an improvement over Reed and Millwood/Weaver. Heck, Arroyo/Pavano/Clement and Patterson isn’t an improvement over Reed alone.
These Reed rumors are making me nauseous.
From Dayn Perry:
“giving Washburn a four-year contract ignores his injury history and mediocre peripherals. Everett? His 2005 numbers in a neutral context . . . are roundly unimpressive. Expect a massive drop-off.”
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5162736
Yeah, we’re being mocked.
101 We’re being mocked by Dayn Perry though. Being ridiculed by him is like slipping on ice and being laughed at by the fat kid who lives in a trailer park. Since replying with a witty and hurtful remark in this situation is just too damn easy, all you do is pull yourself up, wipe the snow of your pants, and keep on walking.
#82
Please don’t tell me you actually believe that.
Wow, I’ve seen comments and attitudes like that pop up around here over the past few weeks…the comments are really going downhill here and quick.
Oh well at least the articles are still top notch.
While I prefer Millwood, I don’t see how Washburn’s deal is that overvalued. Loaiza sighed for $7m a year, if you think Washburn is better, than $9m is about right. Is he $2m a year better? Someone can probably tell me.
The problem is that Loaiza is a better pitcher than Washburn. Look at their 2005 numbers.
Loaiza: 1.23 G/F, 2.98 K/BB, 2.28 BB/9, 7.18 K/9, 3.32 FIP, 3.86 xFIP
Washburn: 1.05 G/F, 1.84 K/BB, 2.59 BB/9, 4.77 K/9, 4.39 FIP, 5.01 xFIP
Loaiza induces more groundballs, strikes out more per walk, walks less batters, strikes out more batters, and relies significantly less on his fielders to make outs for him. And unlike Washburn, Loaiza also has not missed any significant time to injuries the last couple of years.
The Washburn signing is terrible no matter how you look at it.
Though Esteban is two years older when his contract runs out.
103, you don’t believe it? That’s at least a high percentage of why he has the job he has. That’s baseball. Why do you think crappy managers (see Little, Grady) keep getting rehired after botching one team after another? Because for whatever reason, baseball loves baseball people. And that certainly extends to progeny.
Sorry, that was in reponse to Goose, not Tom.
Ultimately, I’d prefer to defer to those with more experience, but it seems to me that some portion of Safeco’s extreme flyball tendency would be explained by the foul ball tendencies of the park. Safeco has spacious foul territory turning a large amount of foul pops into outs. Of course, foul grounders have no impact (and go entirely unaccounted for). If foul outs are included in the overall total of flyballs, this should have a significant impact on the Safeco’s tendency to apparently induce more flyballs. In other words, if Safeco induces an average amount of gbs and fbs, but more of the fbs are turned into foul ball fly outs, then the park will appear to induce flyballs, when what it actually does is create more foul ball outs.
#105: Amen. Baseball men have long hired their drinking buddies, ever since Abner Doubleday invented this great game. (sic)
Foul outs are included in the numbers Dave posted. Safeco inflates foul outs as a percentage of outfield flies by 13.8%. Edison suppresses foul outs as a percentage of outfield flies by 25%.
Does the fact that the Mariners suck affect the park statistics?