Baseball Between The Numbers
Friend of USSM and general man-about-town Jonah Keri has a new article at Baseball Prospectus about their new book, Baseball Between The Numbers. Jonah uses Bruce Sutter’s election to the Hall of Fame as an opportunity to talk about some of the chapters within.
You’ve heard us talk about the new volume before, at and immediately after the BP/USSM event a while back. Now, you can pre-order the darn thing.
It’s too bad we don’t have a post category for “commercialism,” because I’m going to use this same time-hook to plug the book again. If half of Jonah’s excitement about the project is justified, then I’m sure I’ll enjoy it twice as much as anything I’ve read lately, non-Okinawa category.
Here’s a summary excerpt:
Baseball Between the Numbers covers 29 seminal baseball debates that will get both casual fans and hard-core statheads whipped into a frenzy. The book includes the chapter “Are Teams Letting Their Closers Go to Waste?”, which tackles the very topic that sparked huge differences of opinion in SutterGate. Following in the tradition of John Thorn and Pete Palmer’s “The Hidden Game of Baseball,” the work of Bill James and other influential thinkers, Baseball Between the Numbers brings new analytical tools to bear, with BP’s unique writing style adding a twist.
That ‘graph’s not my favorite bit from Jonah’s article, though. That would be this:
If you’re a member of the media and would like to request an advance copy of the book, please e-mail Jonah Keri by clicking here.
Ah, the fringe benefits of being a world famous baseball blogger/freelance writer/whatever. Jonah, just dial 1-900-2-JEFFY and I’ll give you the address.
Between The Numbers has jumped in sales over the past few hours, and so has Baseball Prospectus 2006, which is offered as a package with the forthcoming title. You can be the first kid at your school, house, basement or block party to have read it.
Unless you invite me to your block party. Which you should.
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Here’s a quintessential “Baseball Between the Numbers” dilemma:
The Mariners have just avoided arbitration with Julio Mateo by signing him to a two-year, $1.9 million deal. Is this a shrewd signing of a proven quality reliever to a 2006-market deal, or is this the Mariners again failing to appreciate the concept of replacement-level players?
#1 – I can’t answer that, but I’ve always felt that if Harpo Marx would have been Hispanic rather than German, he’d be a dead ringer for Julio Mateo. Maybe it’s just me…
Julio Mateo is hardly replacement level. He was arguably the M’s second most effective pitcher last season (after Felix).
Though, as I check the numbers, he did benefit from quite a low BABIP (.249).
I like the Mateo signing. He is a quality arm that has more upside at this point in his career. Right number of years and fair money.
Good deal on Mateo. The relatively cheap option for 2008 is nice too. Mateo has always had good control and gets it done.
I agree with #5 (Russ). Mateo at $950,000 a year is not only a good signing for two years, but it increases his trade value as most teams in baseball are looking for a “proven” middle relief guy. On the free agent market a guy like this can easily get $1.5 to $2 mil a year. And the M’s got a $1.5 mil option for ’08 with a cheap buyout ($100K). What’s not to like about this deal? Had Mateo been non-tendered, he would would certainly have gotten a better deal elsewhere…
While I’m not a big fan of Bavasi’s, I’ll say this for him — he has a much better understanding of the arbitration system than Woody Woodward ever did. Back in the late 90’s the M’s kept paying Bobby Ayala (and others) more than they were worth because of their fear of having to go to arbitration. In Ayala’s first year of eligibility the M’s gave him $900,000 despite the fact that he had a 5.88 ERA in ’96 (and missed two months of the year with a self-inflicted hand injury).
After the ’97 season Woodward signed Ayala to a two-year, $3.3 million deal (and ended up paying him to pitch for Montreal in ’99).
It can be argued that Mateo is a better pitcher than Ayala was then and it’s also nearly ten years later and the market has exploded. They’re paying Mateo $775,000 in ’06 and $1 mil in ’07. If they went to arbitration, given the market, Mateo could potentially have gotten over a million for ’06 and close to $2 mil for ’07…
And the arb case of Willie Bloomquist looms even larger ….
He told us at the Kitsap Sun he expects to double his 2005 salary.
I pre-ordered my book, Jeff. Looks freakin’ fascinating. I’ll even ask Jonah for an advance media copy.
Is there a “Why Derek Jeter Sucks On Defense” chapter? That is my favorite argument in baseball.
There should be a chaper on how Derek Jeter is the most overrated player in the history of sports.
Jim,
Chapter 3-2 is called “Did Derek Jeter Deserve the Gold Glove?” It’s an in-depth look at the various ways of measuring defense, with Jeter as a backdrop. If only everyone’s requests were that easy. 🙂
And Mateo has one of the lowest GB/FB rates in baseball (0.60, 0.66, 0.60 last 3 years), which explains the low percentage of hits on balls in play (but also makes him highly suscptible to HR). This is a lot better than the Hasegawa deal, at least.
Mateo’s an extreme flyball pitcher, but Safeco’s a good place to be an extreme flyball pitcher.
I’d love to track down Mateo’s infield fly percentage. It seems like he gets a disproportionate number of flyballs that don’t leave the infield.
Aren’t we kind of setting ourselves up to get screwed on the road here? If all of your pitchers rely on your home ballpark it seems like you’d just get slaughtered on the road.
But the road parks are, taken as a group, neutral. Sure, Mateo’s in extra danger in Arlington, but he should kick ass in Oakland.
Taken another way, could it be argued that Julio Mateo, at $950,000 a year, gives the Mariners greater value than Scott Atchison at $327,000?
what?! you mean that when Jeter’s momentum happens to carry him into the seats after a ball, and it is then hailed as an example of the right way to play the game AND a Gold Glove catch, why that might not really be so???
Aren’t we kind of setting ourselves up to get screwed on the road here? If all of your pitchers rely on your home ballpark it seems like you’d just get slaughtered on the road.
That goes back to a point one of the hosts made about the 1997 and 2001 Mariners…they played to their park’s weaknesses and built a team that could win on home and on the road.
I’m not sure I entirely agree with that, but it’s quite viable and it keeps you from unbalancing your team, particularly when it comes to playoff time.
Friend of USSM and general man-about-town Jonah Keri
why does this conjure up a picture of Jonah clad in top-hat-and-tales, getting ready to tap out a few bars of “Puttin’ on the Ritz”?
“Taken another way, could it be argued that Julio Mateo, at $950,000 a year, gives the Mariners greater value than Scott Atchison at $327,000?”
I don’t think that’s the right comparison. In a near-term, narrow sense, you could plan on using Atchison to pitch innings that would go to Mateo. However, if you don’t have Mateo around, you’ve decreased your pitching depth, and instead of Atchison as the first guy up from Tacoma, you’ve got someone worse.
And at any rate, I’m also in the Mateo-is-not-replacement-level crowd. He’s 28 next season and has a nearly 3/1 K/BB ratio. A 5.9 K/9 ratio isn’t going to light the world on fire, but I think you’d have a hard time finding someone off the scrap heap who has that kind of K-rate combined with a low walk rate who also is likely to have one of his peak seasons. 2 years/$1.9M seems right.
why does this conjure up a picture of Jonah clad in top-hat-and-tales, getting ready to tap out a few bars of “Puttin’ on the Ritz�
That’s not conjuring… you’ve apparantly met Jonah at least once.
Is Jonah a full-time Seattle-area resident now?
The Quebecois separatist movement must be mourning its loss.
“There should be a chaper on how Derek Jeter is the most overrated player in the history of sports.”
Which is pretty amazing considering he’s been about 77 wins above replacement over essentially 10 seasons.
I’ve been a full-time Seattle resident since last summer. Unfortunately it’s likely to only be a one-year stay (moving again this summer), as the wife has to move on following her PhD and continue on her way to professordom. We’ve fallen in love with the city, though, and hope to be back here in a couple years, possibly for good.
If you’re blue and you don’t know where to go why don’t you go where fashion sits…
As you leave, we’ll wave fondly and say: “Je me souviens.”
Mateo has been very useful the past few years. However, his peripheral numbers are throwing up all kinds of red flags. His declining strikeout rate and historically high flyball rate are signs that he’s not fooling anyone, and he’s evolving into a control artist without the stuff to survive.
Basically, his 2005 numbers are not a recipe for long term success. He’s either going to have to lower his number of flyballs allowed, start missing more bats, or find himself another profession.
I’d be surprised if Mateo got any better. I certainly wouldn’t describe him as a guy with upside. I’d imagine ’05 was the high water mark of his career. I’d sell high.
well, before you head off toward whichever ivory tower eventually beckons, you will have to have another book-flogging evening– I missed the one in Bothell, and so my visualization avec chapeau was actually une grande shot in le dark.
RE: #11
I’d love to track down Mateo’s infield fly percentage.
According to the Hardball Times, this year 15% of Mateo’s fly balls are infield flys, which is on the same level as Scott Kazmir, Brad Radke, Ryan Franklin, and Cliff Lee. Only Cliff Lee’s G/F ratio is under 1 (0.81), whereas Mateo’s G/F ratio is 0.63.
Mateo’s G/F last year was 0.61 and his infield fly% was 9.7%.
Okay, that’s not a good sign.