Was Franklin mostly good? No.
DMZ · January 16, 2006 at 11:27 am · Filed Under General baseball
O’er at the Hardball Times, there’s an article that takes a look at Pat Gillick’s contention that Ryan Franklin’s actually a good pitcher who just had some bad outings (no and yes, he certainly had bad outings).
It’s interesting to see what happens when you subtract those “couple bad starts” from pitcher lines. I do disagree with where he starts to go when trying for an explanation, but as it’s admittedly not a serious study, there’s no need to get worked up over it.
And I love putting “general baseball” as the tag on a Ryan Franklin-related post.
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Interesting article. I wonder if Gillick would be as receptive to the reverse idea: remove a pitcher’s 4 *best* starts and see if it still justifies their contract.
A few months ago, the Dodgers were in the market for a starter or two, and I suggested on Doudger Thoughts that they might want to take a flier on Franklin if he was available, unwisely suggesting he might be a “poor man’s Derek Lowe.” I got roundly smacked down for that, and deservedly so.
OT, the[ot]
The article also kept pointing out that Franklin’s Safeco stats were not being park-adjusted, and thus he was actually much worse than this study was making him look.
Good stuff.
This is my favorite part of this post.
Aren’t all pitchers good if you take out their bad outings?
It’ll be better when he’s out of baseball altogehter and its “off topic ranting”
That would make my day.
So, I was talking with a few co-workers, and we came up with a small theory.
What happens if Franklin does well in Philly? That would show that Winn, Franklin and to a lesser extent, Aurilla and Olivo had a significant upswing in stats after leaving Seattle.
How many times does this get to happen before Seattle becomes a place where players come to die? Will this affect the long-term ability to attract big name talent?
#4 – While we’re at it, we could say that if we took away all of the innings where Franklin let up runs (which is about 85% of the innings he pitched, it seems), then his ERA really should be 0.00.
You know your argument is pretty flimsy when you have to bring in the “if you took away (fill in the blank bad performances), he’d be really good” line.
#5 – Good point.
A running joke around my family was the fact that most teams were either stocked with ex-mariners or ex-braves. And guys who did well outside of those two citys. If I had any sort of analitical(sp?) mind, that would be worth researching.
As far as ex-mariners do after thier stint in the Emerald City.
Adam M. had it right in #1. If you are going to talk about taking out the 4 worst starts in looking at Franklin’s performance, you need to then take out the 4 best as well. Pat Gillick is only pretending to look at objective data to justify this signing.
It’s not going to be a fun year for Pat Gillick. I know the Eagles were bad this year, but if it’s January and a pure knucklehead like Angelo Cataldi already has him on the hot seat over a #5 pitcher, it is shaping up to be unpleasant come springtime. No, Pat, you’re not in Seattle anymore – or Toronto either. I liked the Rowand signing, but now he’s going to be worth only 80% of what they paid him, because every fifth day he’ll be standing around watching fly balls go over his head. Come to think of it, I bet I could homer at Citizens Bank Park off of Ryan Franklin. OK maybe with an aluminum bat. And I really suck at baseball.
I think it’s legitimate to take out one bad start — especially if you’re looking at a small sample size and it’s a clear outlier. As others said, if you want to take out the worst, you should remove the best too. Didn’t Franklin have a complete game 2-hitter against Kansas City (or something of the sort)?
Here’s a fun one, what does King Felix look like if you take out his two worst starts (only two because he pitched half the season):
4-2, 74.1 IP, 46 H, 4 HR, 17 BB, 68 K, 1.70 ERA.
Wow!
I bet Franklin’s 8 best starts don’t look like that.
#5: If you look at Aurilia’s splits from last year, his numbers were very much a result of playing in Great American Ball Park. On the road, Rich wasnt even the player that he was at Seattle the previous year. Not surprisingly, no one offered him a fulltime job this offseason. He’ll be used off of the bench by the Reds this year.
I simply cant imagine a revival for Franklin in Philly though I am looking forward to seeing him duel Eric Milton in Cincy this season!!!! When was the last time two teams scored over 20 in the same game (i remember a shootout between the Cubs and Phillies at Wrigley during the 80-81 season???). Wily Mo might actually hit one 700 feet…..
If the M’s had only known…
If they had known that Gillick was willing to overpay for Franklin, then they could of offered Franklin arbitration and then either traded him to Gillick or let him sign as a free agent and get a draft pick out of the deal.
Didn’t Franklin have a complete game 2-hitter against Kansas City
I thought it was against Anaheim.
But…he eats innings…..
[homer voice]mmmmm innings…..[/homer voice]
10: If you take all his good and bad outings out, he’s still eligible for RoY voting.
And when did you last see a rookie with no bad innings?
Franklin for RoY!
Evan, you made me look.
The game I was thinking of was the 8 inning, 3 hit shutout against Kansas City in April. He gave up 2 runs and 2 hits in the 9th with a big lead. In July, her threw a 9-inning shutout against the same KC team. Against Los Angeles in September, he threw 8 innings and gave up 8 hits and 1 run. And against the Mets he threw 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER. Those are the only times he threw more than 7 innings and gave up 0 or 1 runs.
It didn’t take much to shutdown the Royals last year. The Dodgers and Mets weren’t necessarily great offensive clubs either.
That still doesn’t make a pitcher “good”.
I’m telling you, Ryan Franklin winning against Pedro Martinez may have been the biggest surprise win of the year until this weekend’s Steelers-Colts game.
(also, #11 – when Eric Milton was pitching for the Phillies in 2004, he was actually better in CBP than away from it — so I’d rather see a Franklin-Milton matchup there!)
Franklin’s one real skill was pitch-efficiency.
Franklin seemed to be able to pitch efficiently when the team needed him to do so. If the bullpen was in shambles for whatever reason, Franklin seemed to be able to go out there and consistently give you 8 innings. Basically he was able, at will, to retire three guys on 15 pitches inning after inning. The trouble is, in between those 3 guys he might give up a double and two homers, but he’d get through the inning in few enough pitches that he could last deep into the game.
It’s a valuable skill – especially for a lousy team.
#7. sigh. let’s look at other former Mariners, over the last 5 years or so….
John Olerud, Mark McLemore, David Bell, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Cameron, Carlos Guillen, Al Martin, Tom Lampkin, John Mabry, Charles Gipson, Chris Widger, Aaron Sele, John Halama, Jose Paniagua, Frank Rodriguez, Bret Boone, Ed Sprague, Charles Gipson, Ramon Vazquez, Anthony Sanders, Gene Kingsale, Scott Podsednik, Freddy Garcia, Paul Abbott, Arthur Rhodes, Jeff Cirillo, Ruben Sierra, Jose Offerman, James Baldwin, Randy Winn, Ben Davis, Luis Ugueto, Hiram Bocachica, Quinton McCracken, Jose Mesa, Brett Tomko, Dennis Stark, Brian Fuentes, Ismael Valdez, Doug Creek, Giovanni Carrara … does your theory still hold up?
Roger Clemens
GS W-L IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA
Real 32 13-8 211.1 151 51 44 11 62 185 1.87
Adjusted 28 12-5 191.1 121 31 26 7 53 167 1.13
He still wouldn’t have received the Cy Young.
OK – I never can get this stuff to format right. Last try:
Roger Clemens
GS W-L IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA
Real 32 13-8 211.1 151 51 44 11 62 185 1.87
Adjusted 28 12-5 191.1 121 31 26 7 53 167 1.13
I recall watching Franklin pitch an exhibition game in 2000? 2001? which my wife took me to for my birthday. He pitched well in that “yeah, great spring training kid, but you didn’t quite make the tram, but, the big team wants you to pitch the final exhibition game at the big park” outing.
I saw his spin/pickoff move as a runner tried to steal second and mentioned to my wife that the M’s had focussed on the wrong ‘Franklin’. Google ‘arrogant’; ‘young’; ‘washout’; ‘pitcher’, and I assume it will come up with the other Franklin.
Trade value gone forever.
How sad for Pat Gillick … schooled by a radio host. Somehow I don’t think Softy Mahler will ever do the same to Bill Bavasi, which says more about KJR hosts than it does about Bavasi.
Throw out all of Ryan Franklin’s bad seasons, and he’s 11 years old.
#21 – Yeah for the most part. lol
Only a few have been successful outside of the Emerald City. Garcia, ARod..and some just kinda disapeared. lol
Podsednik is doing well for himself. I wouldn’t mind having him at the top of our order.
I always liked that kid, after seeing him drop down a 3 foot bunt in front of home plate as a rookie and hustling it out for a clean ‘safe’ call.
#21, you forgot Charles Gipson
Podsednik is very so so. I’m much happier with Ichiro.
The knock on the Mariners is that they’re stocked with slap hitting outfielders – that’ Podsednik in spades. We’re a lot better off with Reed.
#21 – hmmm..thanks for the list. Now I think I’ve got a little project in mind..
I think Franklin takes a little more flak here than he deserves. He has his uses: I think last year was a good demonstration of this. The M’s came into the season with a lot of young question marks in the organization. When pitcher after pitcher came up injured, Franklin and Villone were able to slide into the rotation and produce (slightly) above replacement level – and unlike using a young pitcher for the same purpose, one could use Franklin and Villone without the slightest concern for their arms. (Okay, maybe a little – but if you bring in a younger replacement level guy, I think, ethically, you need to be a bit gentler.) And you knew these two could do this, something that wouldn’t have been the case if the M’s had scooped up two random replacement level guys – they might have got lucky or had complete flameouts.
I just wish that Franklin’s departure meant we could be sure that we wouldn’t need someone like him this season – oh, wait, we have someone: Washburn.
Just to amplify what I said above, Franklin had a VORP of 13.4 last year in 190 innings. That’s a good line for a fifth starter and better than many teams’ fourth starter (e.g., by VORP he would have been the 4th starter on the Astros(!), Padres, Giants, Phillies, Detroit, or Texas, 3rd starter for Baltimore, the Reds, and the Pirates, number 2 starter for Tampa Bay, and the number 1 starter for Kansas City). Not a bad guy to bring into the season as your long reliever for a team with some question marks in the rotation.
VORP for a pitcher means something?
Hey guys, this is unrelated to this thread, but
[ot]
rlharr – but he’s not a good pitcher. He can give you lots of innings and give up lots of runs. Off the steroids maybe he can’t even give you lots of innings, who knows?
VORP for pitchers is too easily skewed by park and team effects to have predictive value, so we have to let that stat go. The point people more knowledgeable than me have been trying to make is that he has no more value than any number of AAA pitchers who could do the same thing for a lot less money. Sure you might have to run two or three AAA arms out there over a season to get the same number of innings, but the results for the team would be about the same.
Alternatively you could run Jarrod Washburn out there for four years and LOT more money, and the results would be about the same. Oh God, that still pains me.
#35– Off the steroids maybe he can’t even give you lots of innings, who knows?
and you know this how?
I don’t know what he meant, but one thing occurs to me–
A major benefit of using steroids for pitchers (and I can’t speak to what Franklin tested positive for) is that it helps recovery, and in particular can prevent post-start inflammation. If he can’t take a regular turn without use of those drugs, and doesn’t use them or find a way to mask that use, then the only real positive he offers a team would be gone.
#36: Only time will tell but if a pitcher’s claim to fame is his *rubber arm* and he has tested positive for drugs that enhance recovery, its reasonable to wonder about the innings total he’ll be able to reach while clean.
“then the only real positive he offers a team would be gone.”
Besides the drug-testing positive, obviously.
Rimshot!
Franklin is maybe 10% better than Jeff Harris. The basic skill set we’re discussing is:
- right handed
- mediocre straight fastball at 88-90, better sinking fastball at 86-88
- other pitches that can be thrown for strikes (change typically among them)
- eats innings with low pitch counts
- doesn’t strike anyone out, high percentage of balls in play
- flyball P
Harris basically has the same arsenal. He’s younger than Franklin (though he does have injury history), and a lot cheaper. There’s no reason to pay 2.6 million for something you can get for 327,000…
Agreed, even if it costs you another 327K to replace Harris half way through the season when he breaks down you’d still save almost $2 million.
GM Littlefield paid $4.15 million for an innings eater today. There goes the theory shared by the anti-Pat-Gillick-movement, that he overpaid for Ryan Franklin.
29. Podsednik in left and Ibanez at DH or Ibanez in left and Everett at DH?
I’ve got no reason to believe that Everett will hit more than 20 homers this year, so you might as well get Podsednik’s on-base and stolen base abilities at the top of the order and defense in left than Everett’s medecore middle of the lineup ability and Ibanez sub-par defense in left. Not to mention Podsednik makes quite a bit less money.
Podsednik is a solid leadoff hitter and Ichiro would be quite suited for the 2-hole, I feel. Ichiro isn’t a prototypical lead-off man, but he’s one of the best contact hitters in the league, if not the best, he’d be a money hit and run guy with the right side of the infield opened up. Not to mention a lead off guy that can get on directly ahead of him and steal early on in the count, there’s a guy for Ichiro to knock in already. SB threats put pressure on pitchers.
Can’t win with power at Safeco, might as well play to the ballpark.
Oh, Scotty Pods, the one that got away.
“There goes the theory shared by the anti-Pat-Gillick-movement, that he overpaid for Ryan Franklin.”
If I hit myself in the foot with a hammer and bruise my toe, and then my neighbor hits himself in the foot with a sledge hammer and breaks his foot, it doesn’t mean that I didn’t make a mistake–it just means that my neighbor made a bigger mistake.
The only way Gillick didn’t overpay for Franklin is if the rest of the GMs in baseball go out and pay every replacement level pitcher $2M.
“The only way Gillick didn’t overpay for Franklin is if the rest of the GMs in baseball go out and pay every replacement level pitcher $2M.”
Ahh – how much are we paying Washburn?
Not exactly fair, I think Washburn is a better pitcher (damning with faint praise).
And in my earlier post I was not trying to say that Franklin was a great pitcher or appropriately paid. Just that he is a decent guy to run out there as a 4th or 5th starter. The problem with the Mariner’s rotation last year is that they had 5 good 4th or 5th starters.
#46: No, he isn’t … and especially not in Philadelphia. He’s not only a bad pitcher, but he’ll be pitching in a park less suited to his skills set than almost any other in baseball.
If he pitches 200 innings, he could give up 50 home runs.
and on the subject of replacement level, KOMO is reporting that “The Seattle Mariners agreed today to a two-year contract with utility player Willie Bloomquist. The deal is pending a physical. Pitcher Gil Meche is the only Seattle player left eligible for arbitration.”
“Harris basically has the same arsenal. He’s younger than Franklin (though he does have injury history), and a lot cheaper. There’s no reason to pay 2.6 million for something you can get for 327,000…”
“… even if it costs you another 327K to replace Harris half way through the season when he breaks down you’d still save almost $2 million.”
This would be true if you could just pick up such a pitcher for free midseason – but you can’t. Over the past few years the M’s have gone through a lot of pitcher injuries. Somebody needs to pick up the innings. If you load your minor leagues with Jeff Harris’s for emergencies, you’ll have too little room for the real prospects/maybe prospects. You need to have some Moyers, Villones, and Franklins – guys you can be pretty sure will be able to give you lots of innings – if you have a lot of question marks on your staff.
It’s the knapsack problem – do a google search if you don’t know it. Derek’s brought it up a few times, I think.
#46/#47 – There’s been a whole lot of “debate” around here about whether Franklin is slightly above replacement level or the “definition” of replacement level. Essentially, the debate is between people who think he’s worth $1M/year and people who think he’s worth $320,000/year. No one except Pat Gillick seems to think he’s worth what the Phillies are paying him. When the difference in the two sides of a debate about the value of a player is only $750,000, then both sides probably should just give up. It’s splitting hairs. Both sides are arguable. Reasonable people can disagree. Etc.
If you load your minor leagues with Jeff Harris’s for emergencies, you’ll have too little room for the real prospects/maybe prospects.
This is almost never the case. Look at the Rainiers last year: you could have replaced most of those guys with random floatsam and not impeded a prospect. And if there is a prospect at AAA you don’t want to block, well, it’s almost certain they’re as good as any other random guy you’d throw into the fire (except you’re starting the service clock, which might be an issue).
AAA for almost every team is used for the purpose of stocking older veteran players who can fill in if there’s a gap the team can’t adequately fill off the bench or through trades.
Most of the replacement-player-loading takes place at midseason or beyond, when everybody worth a look at the major-league level has already gotten a look or is about to. In 2004, for example, the Mariners exhausted every possibility in the minors  and between injuries and promotions, HAD to go out and raid the indy leagues in mass quantities just to have enough fresh bodies on the Rainier’s roster.
Derek’s right. They’re everywhere.
Yes, we’re dragging around for an argument and the best we can find is between those who think Franklin is completely useless and should not be in baseball, and those who think he is an utterly mediocre inning-eating long reliever, who should be making league minimum.
It’s time for a group hug.
#53: Can we agree that, barring injury, 2006 will definitely settle the Franklin debate? Or will his backers merely dig deeper for alibis? (Getting killed by his home park won’t be an excuse, because he CHOSE Philadelphia as his home park.)
I won’t be at all surprised if he puts up an ERA over 10 and gets yanked before July. Philly is just a dreadful place for him to pitch.
#54 – I don’t think the debate is settleable. First, I don’t think anyone’s arguing that Franklin will (a) do well in Philadelphia; or (b) justify $2M/year. Second, how well Franklin pitches next year is not going to settle anything anyway. We’re arguing based on current facts, not on future facts. Based on these current facts, Franklin’s arguably replacement level and he’s arguably a little above replacement level, depending on which side you’re arguing. Those are the two sides – my point is that those sides are so close to being the same thing that the debate is just not worth having.
This debate, though, about whether the debate is worth having… This is a real important discussion.
Thank you for your judgement on whether this is a discussion worth having. I’ll notify local law enforcement officials to send people over to arrest whoever has a gun to your head and is forcing you to read it.
DMZ, I was trying to be ironic (and a little funny). Sorry if no one got it.
Besides, I still think it’s a good point. These discussions, where everyone uses their best analytical tools to value a player, are a huge and interesting part of USSM in my opinion. However, every once in a while, it’s worth taking a step back to recognize how blunt these tools are. Are they sharp enough to distinguish between a pitcher who will be replacement level next year and one who’s worth paying a little more for? I’d argue not.
Jeff Harris is definitely a better alternative than Ryan Franklin. He is also a better teammate than Franklin. Harris works hard to get the best productivity possible with his talents, and has shown steady improvement because of that. In #41, eponymous made reference to an injury history. Just to set the record straight, Harris does not have a history of injury. He had one stint on the DL about 6 years ago, and has been a reliable workhorse since then, including 2004 when he pitched for three teams in three different leagues. Versatility, willingness, and reliability are Jeff’s strengths.
Woo, 15KVA, I could sure run a lot of my projectors off a buck-booster like that.
#47–”he’ll be pitching in a park less suited to his skills set than almost any other in baseball. If he pitches 200 innings, he could give up 50 home runs.”
on that topic– according to Rizzs, Marzy (coaching at Fantasy Camp this year) said they had pop-ups that went out for home runs in Philly…..
(whiny Paul Reiser voice) This is what I’m saying ….
myself, I just love the idea of Marzy coaching at Mariner fantasy camp. I gather there are photos & newsletters from camp at the Hendu website…