Yes, the PECOTA forecasts are out

DMZ · January 27, 2006 at 9:23 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

If you’re a Baseball Prospectus subscriber, you can go download them. I mention this in the hopes that it prevents further hijacking (you pirates). I’m not sure how much quoting is cool with my former colleagues, and PECOTAs are worth subscribing for on their own (then, so’s Steve Goldman, I’d suggest (though he also writes for free if mostly about the Yankees)).

So I’ll just hum a few lines.
Beltre bounces.
Betancourt improves.
Bloomquist suuuuuuuucks.
Everett comes in at about what we’ve been kicking around (.260/.320/.425ish).
Johjima’s at .292/.354/.424, but he’s got some weirdness in there.
Lopez is okay for a 2B.
Reed improves a lot.
System still doesn’t know what to do with Ichiro.

Sad note: the second-best projected hitter on the team is “Doyle“, who after last year’s insane season-long hitting clinic gets scored at .303/.376/.486, one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball. I’m going to go off and… I don’t know. Drink to forget or something.

Pretty dim view of the pitching rotation, though Meche and Pineiro both escape with ERAs under 5. Pineiro’s is pretty average, and not far off Washburn’s, now that I look at it. Which says a lot about this off-season.

King Felix contends for a Cy Young.


12 Responses to “Yes, the PECOTA forecasts are out”

  1. Roger on January 27th, 2006 9:58 pm

    Sodomy and the Pirate Tradition? That will harden your yarteries.

    Ah, Doyle. Every sport has one of his ilk, talented and likable guys whose bodies just aren’t interested in playing along.

  2. Nat Irons on January 27th, 2006 10:43 pm

    Is Doyle aiming to come back? Last I heard, not long after the injury, he hadn’t decided.

  3. Dave on January 27th, 2006 10:52 pm

    Some of my favorite headturners while looking through the data. Some interesting, some just funny.

    Jeff Clement is projected as an average AL catcher in 2006.

    Lenny Harris has a 50 percent breakout right. Lenny Harris…

    The ’06 projection for Brandon Wood, super stud prospect, is basically the same as it is for Jose Lopez, and Wood’s only a year younger. Wood, meanwhile, is considered an untouchable prospect, while Lopez is barely talked about.

    Eric Patterson: .261/.324/.419. Corey Patterson: .260/.305/.434. Corey was the #3 pick in the draft, Eric was an 8th rounder.

    There projected difference between Jeremy Reed and Johnny Damon is about .015 points of slugging. That’s it. Other than that, they’re basically clones. And people wondered why we didn’t want to give Reed away.

    PECOTA thinks Scott Rolen is going to fall apart.

    The highest projected VORP for a second baseman, either league, belongs to Howie Kendrick. He probably won’t even make Anaheim’s roster. The Angels system is just loaded.

    The difference in VORP between Albert Pujols and the #2 first baseman (Derrek Lee) is the same as the difference between Lee and Kevin Millar.

    Mike Cameron’s projected SLG is .444. His equivalent SLG, which adjusts for park, is .479. After escaping from Safeco, now he gets to deal with Petco.

  4. Jim Thomsen on January 27th, 2006 11:00 pm

    Any major fluctuation foreseen for Derek Jeter?

  5. Thoan on January 27th, 2006 11:00 pm

    “System still doesn’t know what to do with Ichiro.”

    Curses. I was hoping for the return of Ichiro! this year.

  6. DMZ on January 27th, 2006 11:18 pm

    The last word I read on Doyle was the Tacoma News Tribune saying he’s running and might be back playing by late spring training.

  7. eponymous coward on January 28th, 2006 10:10 am

    So if he gets a few weeks of AB’s in Tacoma and looks sharp…we have nowhere to put him, since Hargrove will likely be in love with Everett still unless he totally bombs.

    Great. I think I’ll join you for that drink, DMZ. Make mine a double.

  8. eponymous coward on January 28th, 2006 10:12 am

    By the way, has anyone noticed the server error messages from Apache?

  9. joealb on January 28th, 2006 11:40 am

    Doyle in left by the break and wave bye bye to the SoDoMoFo!

  10. Adam S on January 28th, 2006 12:23 pm

    DMZ, if you add up the 50% projections for the Mariners hitters and pitchers, how does that compare to your projections for RS and RA from last week?

  11. BelaXadux on January 28th, 2006 8:06 pm

    Mike Cameron: Safeco, Shea, and Petco. That lineup swallows his offense and keeps him little known relative to his value, but in each case he was acquired because those contexts require his defense. . . . I only wish that the Ms had picked up Mike from the Mets in the offseason. All it took was X. Nady, not exactly a high price. But.

  12. BelaXadux on January 28th, 2006 8:30 pm

    PECOTA is projecting Doyle off a limited set of numbers, yeah, but I think they have him in the right area: one of the best _hitting_ prospects in the game. . . . What a shame the guy’s body gives him breaks of the wrong kind. Every time Everett comes to the plate for the Ms, I’m going to have longing visions of Doyle in my eyes for a second.

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