Okay, one PECOTA comparison

DMZ · January 28, 2006 at 12:13 am · Filed Under Mariners 

2006 projected lines:
Pitcher A:175 IP, 183 H, 49 BB, 99 K, 24 HR, 4.70 park-adjusted ERA
Pitcher B:184 IP, 208 H, 50 BB, 92 K, 22 HR, 5 park-adjusted ERA

How about this
Pitcher A: 4y, $37.5m
Pitcher B: 1y, $4m

Yes, it’s a repeat of “Pick the Pitcher


10 Responses to “Okay, one PECOTA comparison”

  1. tad on January 28th, 2006 1:14 pm

    But which one has more Moxie? What about grit?

  2. chrisisasavage on January 28th, 2006 1:32 pm

    A is Washburn, B is Jason Johnson I assume

  3. CCW on January 28th, 2006 2:39 pm

    Pitcher B could practically be Pineiro, actually.

  4. marc w on January 28th, 2006 2:51 pm

    A is Washburn all right, but I’m having trouble finding B. Jason Johnson is close, but his ERA is projected to be a little better. DMZ, do you have a different version of the PECOTA table than the rest of us?

    FYI, pineiro looks a bit better than JJ. That’s not exactly saying much, but it’s something.

  5. DMZ on January 28th, 2006 3:17 pm

    Hmmm. It would appear I do. I should go fix that. PECOTA, folks — many iterations make perfect.

  6. Jim Thomsen on January 28th, 2006 4:07 pm

    Has PECOTA taken on Ryan Franklin in Philly? I’d love to know his HR total (and HR rate) prjection.

  7. Mr. Egaas on January 28th, 2006 4:52 pm

    Ha, I’d estimate around 40 bombs, in the DH-less National League, despite what PECOTA says.

  8. dw on January 28th, 2006 5:42 pm

    PECOTA still has Franklin listed in Seattle, so the 26 HRs they’re giving him is going to be revised upwards.

  9. Jim Thomsen on January 28th, 2006 6:37 pm

    Well, let’s see here … Citizen’s Bank Ballpark gets a BP park factor of 1.009 (neutral rating), which seems conservative … and Safeco gets an 0.942 park factor (severe pitcher’s park). Looks like Franklin’s numbers, based on that, would take about a 12 percent adjustment at the ballpark door.

  10. dw on January 29th, 2006 12:00 pm

    I get a 7% bump — 26 * 1.009 / .942 = 27.8.

    There are several pitchers that PECOTA is listing at 30+ HRs, but I only see one regular — Javier Vasquez.

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