King Felix, unique
I’ve been kicking around what to say about this, but… the new PECOTA cards are out, and if you look at Felix Hernandez… well, let me take a step back.
To over-simplify, PECOTA takes a player and uses a bunch of criteria to find similar players in baseball history to compare them to, and then looks at what those guys did the next year. So in doing this, it comes up with a score on how well it did finding similar players.
From the glossary:
Similarity index is a gauge of the player’s historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual. For players with a very low similarity index, PECOTA expands its tolerance for dissimilar comparables until a meaningful sample size is established (see Comparable Players).
Historical anamoly Ichiro (who the system predicts will be out of baseball in 2010) gets a 19.
Felix gets a 1. 1.