PI: Bavasi’s job security
Another article on the axe sitting next to the sharpening wheel in Armstrong’s office.
Bavasi denies there’s anything additionally stressful about having to win this season:
“I don’t think there’s extra pressure,” Bavasi said. “I know that it’s natural for people who haven’t been in this game and who haven’t worked in this game to think about it and ask the question.
“I get it. But there’s a way to build a sound organization from one that was not. There are not a lot of shortcuts. There are no magic bullets.”
While this is a spring training storyline, it’s not going to be resolved for a long time yet — they’re not going to fire anyone until at least a couple months into the year, if it happens.
More good stuff from Kirby Arnold at the Everett Herald: only Mike Hargrove has lost weight. Everyone else is bigger and buffer. Morse, suspended for failing a steroid test last year?
“Mike Morse is huge,” [Hargrove] said of the team’s 6-foot-5, 225-pound infielder/outfielder. “He was a big kid before and he’s a bigger kid now.”
Nice dig at the previous administration there – “building a sound organization from one that was not”
I guess the main question regarding Bavasi’s job security is how sound do Armstrong and Lincoln think the organization is now compared to when they hired him. Certainly wins and losses don’t look good, the minor league system doesn’t appear to be significantly improved (yet)and several key acquistions have failed miserably. Unless Chuck and Howie know something we don’t I have a hard time seeing Bavasi surviving another losing season. They have to finish over .500 this year or he’s gone IMO.
The Mariners executive suite is operationally very disciplined. They are not going to take any type of sudden action, and if they do take any action an alternate operating program will immediately be put in place.
I can’t see anything happening until mid-year. And even then it won’t happen unless the executive management believes that is the best time to make a switch from a team operations standpoint.
I believe a decision such as this will be strongly influenced by the results of the interviews before Bavasi was hired, specifically how the internal candidates fared in the process. If one of the internal candidates came in a close second to Bavasi, it’s obviously much easier to pull the trigger.
I have to believe that at this point, Bavasi’s job security hinges in large part on the performances of the free agent acquisitions. Anybody think that if Washburn and/or Everett tank for 3 months, that Bavasi will still have a job?
Anybody think that if Washburn and/or Everett tank for 3 months, that Bavasi will still have a job?
If the M’s are leading the division despite that…sure.
I don’t think the odds are very good of that combination of events happening, though. (I’m pretty sold on Everett being a disaster- Washburn has a better chance of not being a complete washout in my book, at least in year 1 of the deal.)
Bavasi will have his job through the year because generally speaking, you don’t get to interview candidates from other front offices while the season’s in progress, and the M’s would be foolish to stick to strictly internal candidates- plus guys like Fontaine would likely follow Bavasi out the door. Imagine that happening on the eve of the draft…
That would be just super, having another Mattox draft.
This debate is academic. The article clearly states that Everett’s left-handed power will improve the team. Plus we apparently have a fourth outfielder (how many can you have?) So what’s that make, 30 or 40 wins right there, see?
I do have some respect for Bavasi for attempting to build a foundation at the cost of immediate wins. He could have take the Gillick route and didn’t, so he has integrity.
His problem is that he didn’t couple his recognition of the sorry state of the M’s farm system with astute talent evaluation, and that’s what will do him in. At that point, the organization may reap the benefits of a rebuilt farm system along at the same time they figure out how to spend the free agent budget a bit more wisely.
I honestly don’t think the M’s or Bavasi thought anything significant was wrong with the farm system until after Bavasi started, they began losing, and then they started bringing guys up to see what they had and saw that most either weren’t any good or couldn’t stay healthy. Until just this past year, most of the experts I read ranked the M’s farm system as above average. The biggest problem for Bavasi is that the team he inherited got old real fast and there was no where to turn. He has had very few prospects to plug into the lineup or trade and therefore has had no choice but to take a one dimensional approach and rebuild the major league team almost strictly through free agency. In my opinion, Bavasi deserves a few more years to see if his drafts pan out. I think he and Bob Fontaine can build a strong system which will give them more options and flexibility in building the major league team.
You’ve been reading the wrong experts, then. We talked extensively about the poor state of the organizational farm system during the end of the Gillick regime. It was clear to anyone who took a serious look at the prospects available that the M’s were in for a hard fall. The lack of talent available shouldn’t have been a surprise.
Baseball America had the Ms ranked 11th last year, based on their strength up the middle. Before that, they hadn’t been ranked highly since they pitching prospects coming out their ears around the turn of the century. Almost every single one of those pitching prospects suffered a serious injury or otherwise flamed out.
Speaking of Mike Morse, is the poor guy is headed for 2-3 years of Mariner limbo while they try to figure out where he fits?
#10:
I recall those posts. And I recall that there were many people at the time who accused Dave of making unfounded pessimistic comments about the status of the Mariners minor league system.
That would be just super, having another Mattox draft.
Yeah, we could have LOTS of soft-tossing pitchers and guys we could lowball and not sign…
But seriously- you don’t want scouts (from Fontaine on down) leaving the org right around the time at the exact time you need their opinions. Plus you would want a GM to handle the July deadlines…and after that, Christ, it’s August and you’re 17 games out, why NOT wait until the offseason when you can interview everyone you’d like?
In my opinion, Bavasi deserves a few more years to see if his drafts pan out. I think he and Bob Fontaine can build a strong system which will give them more options and flexibility in building the major league team.
I’ve made this argument before, but Bavasi’s been a MLB GM for 8 years. The highest that his team has finished is in second place, 11 games above .500. That’s 8 years where the best he’s done (prorating for the 1995 season) is put an 86 win team on the field.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, the 2002 Angels, blah blah blah. Here’s an interesting tidbit:
Average Angel season, 2000-2003: 83-79
Average Angel season, 1995-1999: 80-82
Outside of 1995 and 2002, the Angels were mediocre and stumbling around in the 70-85 win region for an 8 year span…Bavasi’s genius at building a farm system and all.
For the record, Billy Beane has never won less than 87 games in a season (which, BTW is tied with Bavasi’s BEST winning percentage ever). Yes, his teams suck in the playoffs…but they MAKE the playoffs a lot more often, and unless we want to rely on pure dumb luck getting us a title, like the Marlins and the Angels have had the last 10 years, I submit we should actually be aggressively looking at results and using them to inform our evaluations. Maybe Bavasi, for all his other qualities, just isn’t a good GM.
I can’t decide whether Bavasi should stay one more year or go now. I guess I’ll have to wait and see how the FA acquisitions look in a few months. If having 5 LH outfielders (if you can call them all OFers) either helps the team win or makes them a favorite trade partner at the trade deadline. He’s either a genius or an idiot. Can’t decide.
The prospect shortage didn’t seem as bad until they either got injured or called up. Almost every one that you could see having a shot of becoming a Major League player either had a poor showing or was injured. most of the injured were then reinjured and some of the bad debuts became injured. A few of the same players we were looking at in 2002-2003 could have been contributors in 2005. Bad luck seems to be the only connection between them all.
I guess I should ammend that to fired after 06 or kept on for 07…
And as for Morse, there should be a built-in role for him as Everett’s relief as the DH against lefties. There’s NO reason Everett should see more than a very small handful af PAs as a RHB, considering how Everett’s complete dogcrap when he’s not batting LH.
Baseball America had the Ms ranked 11th last year, based on their strength up the middle.
Having Felix alone in your organization is enough to put you in the top 15.
I wouldn’t count “Morse is better than Carl against lefties” as a ringing endorsement.
Morse doesn’t have a real spot on the team because he’s just not very good at anything.
That’s not true, Evan. Didn’t you read Hargrove’s comment? He’s HUGE!
but not as huge as Bohn apparently.
Shots from practice today are up, including a look at the new blue & teal bp jersey
Those are some ugly jerseys
ugly is putting it mildly…whoever designed those putrid things should be the next one canned…
Wow, Morse and Bohn sure sound physically impressive. What’s Gabe Kapler up to these days? We could sign him and have the team you’d least like to get into a brawl with. That counts for something, right?
#23– hey, at least it isn’t a pixie vest. hmm. wonder my where teal hat went….
#24– “Gabe Kapler, who ruptured his left Achilles’ tendon less than five months ago, was among 20 non-roster players invited to spring training by the Boston Red Sox.”
apparently Jim Street has just retired to Arizona.
He reports that Joh had a good first day, Blackley says his “shoulder feels great”, the young pitchers are thowing well, and Chaves is ready to go
Teal be the color o’ the sea, ye scurvy dogs! Yarrggghh!
Morse is huge?
Okay, not to cast aspersions, but if you’re the guy on the team with the most steroid suspensions, do you really want to put on a bunch of muscle mass in the off-season?
RE: #28
Don’t worry about it. They don’t have a test yet for Human Growth Hormone…and that’s what’ll really put on the mass for those guys. So, while they all have to get off Steroids, they can all move on to HGH, which’ll make ‘em even bigger…and also be significantly worse for them. Fantastic.
I’m just saying the optics are bad. Everyone knows Morse’s fat-soluble sob story, and the next spring he’s huge? You have to see that’s not going to look good.
I like hearing that Clement is hitting well. Mmmmm, left handed power…..
(imagine a Homer Simpson voice saying that last line)
There really isn’t much question if Clement can even tually hit in the bigs is there? I thought the real question was about his D.
I can live with him being the DH or moving to 1B so Sexson can DH.
Fernando Vina – (See Bohn link in # 21). Kirby is neglecting his duty by not saying a few words about Fernando’s adventurousness on the basepaths. He’d be sent in to pinch-run, and he’d frequently be picked off or caught tealing.
The Ms wanted to send him down, but first, they had to offer him back to the Mets–he was a Rule-fiver. The Mets had developed a need, and were glad to take him back.
After all these years, Fernando returns to the M’s organization.
Vina gets caught tealing? Maybe he’s the guy responsible for those horrible uniforms.
Re #14 — For the record, Beane was named as Oakland GM in October, 1997. The A’s were 74-88 in 1998, his first season as GM. Since then, however, he’s golden.
Interesting tidbit in that article is that Grover is thinking of Johjima for the 2 hole. That’s good news, I’d rather have him there than Reed for L-R-L action at the top.
“Okay, not to cast aspersions, but if you’re the guy on the team with the most steroid suspensions, do you really want to put on a bunch of muscle mass in the off-season?”
I would say absolutely. If he adds muscle mass this offseason, and then he never tests positive for performance enhancing drugs again, then he could argue that all along his performance was mainly due to his hard work, and didn’t have much to do with the drugs. I mean, wouldn’t losing muscle after the tests make him look a lot worse than gaining some? I think it’s fairly plausible that a player might think like that, anyway. Heck, if we’re really optimistic, maybe he just wants to prove to himself that he can get it done without the drugs.
Let’s not forget the real reason to build up your body; making yourself a better ballplayer. Morse has to develop a power stroke to stick, and mass is the shortcut to power hitting. If he needs the mass to compete, then not putting on mass out of fear of steroid fallout is a stupid idea that only an ignorant 3rd party observer would think of….
Play the game, get on with life.
Also, I wonder if Bohn has always been big, or if his impressive physique is a recent phenomena? If so, Bohn may surprise as a 4th OFer…
I still think the offense will be vastly improved (top 7 in the AL) over last year and Bavasi will get credit for that. If the Starting Pitching is not up to par it’s easier to blame a thin FA market for starters. As long as I’m right about the improved hitting and there’s good numbers coming from close to half of Bavasi’s acquisitions (including Reed and Beltre) I don’t think he has too much to worry about.
All other ALW teams look better on paper to most people and little could have been done to change that…
No one not involved in discussions and decision making can know whether there was ever a shot at them acquiring a better SP than Washburn (although there’s much room for argument as to who’s better)…
If either Meche or Pineiro puts it together this year the gamble of keeping both was obviously worth it…
Franklin’s gone…
They didn’t balk or stall at paying double what was rumored to be expected pay for Kenji, a signing that seems to be a steal even at that price…
The draft picks under Bavasi have come along very well as a whole in comparison to Gillick’s (though losing more games improves the perceived quality on draft day)
Building up body mass != becoming a better ballplayer.
There are many, many huge, muscled bad players. There are a ton of guys who bulked up and became prone to injury, or lost bat speed in their quest for power. It’s not that simple.
“Building up body mass != becoming a better ballplayer.”
I agree with you here, but I wonder what results a poll of current major leaguers would tell us about how they think on this topic. It seems like it’s a pretty easy mind trap to get into–”if only I’d lifted a little bit more, that warning track fly ball would’ve been a home run…must go lift more weights.”
DMZ: I didn’t building up body mass = becoming a better ballplayer. I did say that mass is a shortcut to a power struck. Shortcut: as in muscling the ball rather than striking it with skill….
People add mass to become better ballplayers. Whether or not they can use the mass is still part of the equation. Morse got bigger to become more powerful, not because he was out to fight the steroid stigma…
#19
“Not very good at anything”
Outside of making his mark as a consistent smooth fielding shortstop, he did extremely well for his age AND overcame everyone’s and I mean everyone’s highest expectations of what he was capable of in the bigs. He has never been that highly regarded since coming over in the trade and that seems to continue here for some reason. I don’t get it. I think the jury is still out on the kid.
he did extremely well for his age
He had a hot streak of 50 at-bats, then turned into a pumpkin.
e has never been that highly regarded since coming over in the trade and that seems to continue here for some reason.
Actually, I’ve said all kinds of positive things about his swing and offensive potential, even when he was still with the White Sox and posting mediocre numbers.
I think the jury is still out on the kid.
He’s 23, so by definition, you’re correct. But he’s not a star in the making, and everyone who was so impressed with his debut is likely to be quite disappointed by what he turns out to actually be. If he develops, he might be an okay fourth outfielder.
BTW, I personally feel for most sports sport specific conditioning is more important than building bulk. Hold back at first, and practice what you do, and practice over and over and over until it’s easy. That’s part of why Ichiro! is such a good batter and fielder, and why he’s been healthy for so long. He practices batting and fielding drills constantly. It’s also part of why Edgar was such a great hitter. He hit and hit and hit, whether in game or not. Also, I agree with Ichiro!, crashing into walls and diving into the dirt isn’t too smart. I think this is why his defensive metrics aren’t as high as people would think. His range is unearthly by RF standards, but he doesn’t dive and smash into walls making palys that might hurt him. Smart.
Morse probably won’t be in any All-star games. He may not ever be a starter, but then I’m leaving room for error. All those same things were said about Podsednik and many others who outperformed thier “ability”, so I can’t say it’s not possible. He’s probably a better LFer right now than Everett and may become better than Lawton and Ibanez. I don’t expect him to take a starting spot away from anyone, but I don’t expect Jones or Clement to do so this year either. We can all admit that it could happen though…
What do you do if Jones is looking great in the spring batting .400+ against Major Leaguers and covering CF with ease?
What do you do if Clements crushing the ball AND batting .400+ against Major Leaguers?
I’d be shopping every Ofer/DH I’ve got outside of Ichiro and Reed (keeping Ibanez if Jones isn’t the one) as I brought someone along to DH and play thier respective position. Okay I’d probably end up with a choice between trading Ibanez, who I think should instead be offerred an extention mid-season, or releasing Everett. However the idea that the M’s wanted to play Morse in the outfield showed to me that they don’t plan on keeping either Reed or Ibanez.
FWIW, re: Morse’s ‘huge-ness’:
“Morse worked with a personal trainer – and a personal chef – this winter. “I had no idea how eating well could make a difference,†he said. Morse gained about eight pounds but lost body fat, meaning he’s come to camp leaner and stronger, quicker and more flexible.”
All those same things were said about Podsednik and many others who outperformed thier “abilityâ€Â, so I can’t say it’s not possible.
No one’s saying its not possible. But when making roster decisions, you have to deal in probability, not possibility. And, just to clear one myth up, here’s Scott Podsednik’s numbers from his last year in Tacoma and his major league career numbers, side by side:
2002, Tacoma: .279/.347/.425
ML, 2003-2005: .279/.345/.385
He had a fluke season in ’03 where a bunch of hits fell in, and even including that year, he’s been a below average corner outfielder who lacks requisite power to start in the majors. The White Sox won the WS in spite of Podsednik getting a lot of at-bats, not because of him (though, to be fair, his defense makes him not completely awful).
We can all admit that it could happen though…
Again, deal in probability, not possibility. Anything could happen. Doesn’t mean you make roster decisions because of long shot odds.
What do you do if Jones is looking great in the spring batting .400+ against Major Leaguers and covering CF with ease?
Pat him on the helmet, hand him a ticket to Tacoma, and say “nice month, kid”. Spring Training stats are worthless. Spring Training stats are worthless. Spring Training stats are worthless. Just keep saying it to yourself.
What do you do if Clements crushing the ball AND batting .400+ against Major Leaguers?
Pat him on the helmet, hand him a ticket to San Antonio, and say “nice month, kid”. See above.
I’d probably end up with a choice between trading Ibanez, who I think should instead be offerred an extention mid-season, or releasing Everett. However the idea that the M’s wanted to play Morse in the outfield showed to me that they don’t plan on keeping either Reed or Ibanez.
Giving Ibanez an extension is an abysmal idea. You’ll see why in the coming roundtable.
Also, the M’s moving Morse to LF had nothing to do with the other outfielders in the system and everything to do with the fact that he simply lacks the ability to play the infield at the major league level. If he’s going to make it in the show, he’s going to make it as an LF, because he’s that bad with the glove.
Keeping his flexibility is key. Remember how Ruben Sierra bulked up and became a skill-less behemoth.
#48:
That never happens. By its nature, spring training is not competition against major leaguers; it’s spring training. Even those players who are bona fide major leaguers are not playing at a major league level. Some are still working on conditioning. Pitchers might still be working on specific pitches, throwing lesser quality pitches at times they would use their best stuff in real competition, just so they can practice the lesser pitch under game conditions. And for most of spring training the rosters are not major league rosters.
Then, once you get past those considerations, you have the issue of small sample size. Spring training is simply not long enough to draw any kind of conclusions about players. Couple that with the inferior competition, and you have the accurate conclusion that spring training stats mean nothing.
Most teams recognize that. That’s why every year guys are sent down to the minors after having totally dominated spring training.
The 1000 or more ABs a player has logged in the minor leagues, playing a full season under the daily scrutiny of coaches and team personnel, is far, far, far more significant that what a player does in spring training.
Going into spring training, teams have already decided what roster positions are set, which ones are open, and who the candidates are for those open spots. A guy does not force his way onto an opening day roster with a torrid spring unless he was already considered a contender for a roster spot.
If a guy isn’t a contender for a roster spot, the most he can hope for from spring training is to raise his profile in the organization, and perhaps get slotted to a higher minor league club than he would have otherwise. If he sustains his performance at that higher level, only then do you raise your assessment of him.
So what do you do if Clement and Jones are doing what you hypothesize? You give them their minor league assignment and tell them to keep it up.
‘Cause if the guys really have taken a step forward, they’ll show it in their new assignment. But if the spring training outbreak was a fluke (as are virtually all of those scorching spring performances), reality will reassert itself, you won’t have burned an option on a guy needlessly, and you won’t have damaged the guy’s self-confidence.
The only reason to ever change the assessment of a player during spring training is when a guy comes in and unequivocally demonstrates that he is a different player than what he has previously shown. For example, a guy who has had all of the tools and a decent track record, with the big knock being that he hasn’t developed power yet. So he comes to spring training carrying about 20 more pounds and starts showing the power he wasn’t projected to have for two or three more years. Or a pitcher shows he has developed complete command of his breaking ball and that has been his previous limitation. In those types of cases you might change your thinking based on a spring training performance. But that happens very rarely.
Speaking of steroids, a funny bit from one of Ron Judd’s Seattle Times columns on the Olympics, about the first athlete this games to be disqualified for doping:
“The disgraced Pyleva was immediately signed to a minor-league contract by the Seattle Mariners, who will use her for middle relief.”
ouch.
Well, Ron Judd is the only one who laughs at his jokes…consider the source.
I’m well aware of the tinkering that all players do in the spring. I was not talking about any player who has not put up the numbers in the minor leagues to show that he can play. Clement is far from 1000 AB’s, but I would hope, for the M’s sake, that thier #3 pick never logs 1000 AB’s in the minors. These are 2 legitimate candidates for starting positions in the Majors for the future and the biggest reason to keep them down (both need work on defense) wasn’t mentioned by anyone. They have track records. They’ve shown the skills. I’m not talking about a non prospect. I’m talking about players that it would be disappointing to NOT see them put it together. Adam Jones or Carl Everett…Are you serious the decision comes that quick for you?
Wow that Judd column was absurd. Are there still people who aren’t aware that male figure skaters are disproportionately gay?
There’s no decision to make. There’s zero reason to even give Jones or Clement an illusion that they can make the team out of spring training. They’re clearly not ready, and no amount of rooting for their talents will make them more ready.
Starting them off in Seattle would be a disastrous decision. If you’re not sure why promoting talented players prematurely is a bad idea, go look at the recent history of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays or the Pittsburgh Pirates.
I’m always glad to hear a player learned to take his profession more seriously and work harder than previously to have the best tools to work with. Morse may do well in the majors if his power and batting eye develop more. Has his batspeed increased? That’s more pertinent than size regardless. I would assume that working with a personal trainer has made him more flexible than he was before.
Come on DMZ go look at Pujols…There’s no 100% right answer for player development in this case.
I’m not DMZ. And seriously, you need to stop comparing every player to the one-in-a-million-historical-outliers. If you think that Albert Pujols development path is any kind of guide for how to handle talent, than I don’t what to tell you.
From his history of digs at the Mariners, I suspect Ron Judd has never attended a baseball game he enjoyed….
Sorry Dave…didn’t double check.
You’re right about tendencies, but there’s exceptions. The Mental make-up is the biggest factor on promotability beyond the #s. Probably the best case for either coming up this year is by putting up good numbers through AAA and waiting for an injury or Everett explosion. Hargrove has shown in previous years that he’s of similiar mindset to you on bringing players up. That’s how it’ll probably go, but the transition is mostly mental and it depends on the players coping and adjusting abilities how they make it. Ask Betancourt (signed last January with no minor league experience) how fast you can go through a system. Obviously Felix comes to mind, but he’s a rarer bird than maybe even Pujols.
I’m not convinced that either Jones or Clement should even start the year in Tacoma. I’d probably send both to San Antonio. Jones is ticketed for Tacoma, so the M’s disagree with me there, but the idea that either one should be expected to put up good numbers in Triple-A and then appear in the majors this year just lacks understanding of how slowly prospects develop.
Go look through the recent years of top prospects and look at their development cycles. For every Jeff Francouer, you’ll find 30 Franklin Gutierrez’s. You’re putting way, way too much hope in the idea of exceptions. There aren’t nearly as many as you think.
And Betancourt’s a totally different animal. He’s a defensive wizard who made the majors in spite of the fact that his bat clearly wasn’t ready for the show. Defensive performance progresses almost 180 degrees from offensive performance. It gets worse as a player ages, and most players hit their defensive prime in their early twenties. In other words, Betancourt’s already as good as he’s going to get defensively, and that’s what got him to the show.
Jones and Clement have to hit their way to the show, and I don’t think you realize just how far either one has to go before they’re going to be ready. The M’s should be thrilled if either one is ready by the 2007 all-star break.
It will be said of the next player to fly through a teams system that they’re not Pujols, or Griffey or whoever. Clement played 3 years of college. One of the top players there and some compare college to AA. He’s been developing for 3+ years already and who knows what he put together in the offseason. Wouldn’t surpise me much to see him offensively ready when position players report. I’m sure that the Mariners development could use more positive wellwishing in the collective faith of thier young players abilities. It may be the effect of the clouds that are usually over our heads on our personal psyche’s reflecting on our beleif of a local sports team catching any breaks that has kept our minor league system from developing healthy talented players. Faith is powerful. I have faith that they’ll develop players just fine and that’s the best way I can support the team.
So you’re willing to rush every single high draft pick hoping to find the next Albert Pujols, and you believe that your faith will help them succeed?
Okay, got it. I’ll stop arguing now.
Let’s compare Adam Jones to a former Mariner CF who DID rocket through the minors:
Ken Griffey’s minor league stats:
1987, age 17: Bellingham, short-season rookie ball: .313/.449/.604
1988, age 18: San Bernadino, high A ball: .338/.429/.575
1988, age 18 (cup of coffee): Vermont, AA: .279/.338/.492
Griffey’s triple crown stats in the minors (130 games): .318/27/92. Griffey’s minor league OPS’ are around .950.
Adam Jones, meanwhile, has a lifetime .779 OPS in more than TWICE as many minor league games. He also has one less home run, and Griffey had almost as many walks in the minors as Jones (Jones leads, 90-83).
My conclusion? It’s pretty easy to tell the difference between someone who’s ready to play before they can legally purchase beer (Griffey) and someone who isn’t (Jones). I have zero issue telling Jones to go to Tacoma come the end of March, even if he’s hitting .400.
I would also say that, the same way that Dave might start Jones in San Antonio and work up to Tacoma, I could see Clement starting at Inland Empire. and working his way up to San Antonio.
#56–Wow that Judd column was absurd. Are there still people who aren’t aware that male figure skaters are disproportionately gay?
they are? disproportionately?
I agree with you except that it’s mostly mental makeup and work ethic that decides how a player will adjust to advancement. The 2 players we’ve been discussing have shown they make adjustments well. I don’t think either should advance like Griffey or Pujols or even Betancourt. I don’t think that Jones has that level of ability. I haven’t seen Clement play, but he may be close to that level from what I’ve read. No I didn’t want to see Ryan Anderson making the team in any year, until he overcame his serious control issues. I’m not talking about advancing someone just because they’re a high pick. There has been one high pick in 20+ years that I have advocated promoting and hoped for thier advancement. I didn’t even argue for A-rod or Cruz and certainly not Christianson. A-rod was eventually ready after several callups, Cruz made Ibanez look like a good fielder and I can’t wait to watch Clement in the spring. I don’t think either of them are ready for mainly defensive reasons. Jones is adjusting to a new position and that’s the most anyone should expect him to adjust to right now. Clement may not be ready for AAA defensively or offensively.
I guess it did seem that I was comparing them to Pujols and Griffey, but that was not my intent. I made a direct connection of Jones to Everett, not Griffey. If I was to compare either to Griffey for any reason it would be the high draft pick who may finally replace the lost LH power from Griffeys departure. I was getting a 100% you don’t advance answer for all minor leaguers and responded with ‘there’s no 100%’. That’s where the comparison came, though it is in discussion about Clement and Jones.
For the record: I again agree that they won’t make the team out of the spring, but if they did show readiness in the spring I’d still lay groundwork for deals to open that spot after sending them down to see if it continues. They both should have more of a future than Everett, which is the comparison I’m talking about.
The best way to make terrible decisions about talent evaluation is to pretend that we know how to interpret a player’s mindset.
Noting personal, but I don’t think you or I, or Bill Bavasi for that matter, have any idea how Adam Jones or Jeff Clement or anyone in the system would respond mentally to being promoted to the major leagues. We can try to convince ourselves that we know, but in the end, we just don’t.
Evaluate on talent, and leave the mental gymnastics to other people.
Neither may be ready until 3 years down the road, but I’ll wait to watch them play this spring to make that assessment for myself. After watching thier skills closely is when the staff decides where they’ll go, though it is mostly decided by minor league coordinators before ST opens.
Again Dave…I’m not saying to promote them
#71:
As I mentioned above, a player’s development status should be determined from his performance over the course of a full season of play at a level appropriate for his development level. Spring training just doesn’t provide an environment suitable for evaluating player skills.
Let’s say that you see a guy in spring training who looks as if he has made a significant advancement over where he was last year. You still shouldn’t conclude that he has made that advancement until he has shown he can sustain that level of peformance for a longer period and under real game conditions.
You’re placing way too much importance on what happens in spring training.
Jones isn’t ready. He’s had one good year with the bat, and it wasn’t THAT great- it was good, but not “OMGWTFBBQ!!111ONEONEONE”, where he’s outclassing the league.
To put this another way- Jose Lopez was clearly ahead of Jones at a comparable age (Lopez had better numbers in tougher leagues)…and he’s not exactly set the world on fire his first 400+ MLB plate appearances.
As for Clement…he’s had a grand total of 34 minor league games in pro baseball, and his primary position is blocked by someone who’s arguably the best free agent the M’s signed. The secondary positions he could reasonably play are blocked by FA acquisitions the M’s have made over two years. Really, he’s not going to make the team, and it’s OK.
What the hell is the point of rushing Clement at all right now anyway? Didn’t we just sign our new starting catcher? If there’s any risk of hampering his development right now we should avoid it. We’ve got catcher covered for the moment, we’ve got a backlog of DH/1B/4th OF types too so where exactly is he supposed to fit in?
stray note… “Lions ace Daisuke Matsuzaka wanted to make an impression in his final days at Seibu’s spring camp in Nango, Miyazaki Prefecture, throwing 333 pitches in the bullpen on Friday.”
I’d rather see Clement DHing next year than an Everett DHing. I admit I’m a bit overzealous about seeing him in the lineup because of what he could be. Like I said I want to see him play in the spring, not look at his stats in the spring. You can learn alot about a team by the way they’re playing in the spring, but really you’re right that the numbers don’t mean much.
You can learn alot about a team by the way they’re playing in the spring, but really you’re right that the numbers don’t mean much.
No, you can’t. You really can’t.
IIRC, the ST record for the 2001 M’s was something like 13-19…
#77: You can learn alot about a team by the way they’re playing in the spring, but really you’re right that the numbers don’t mean much.
By all of the accounts I heard from ST 2005, the Mariners looked vastly improved over the 2004 model. The play was crisper. The workouts were planned and organized in more detail and more thoroughly. Players were responding well to the transition to Hargrove after the Melvin years.
The Yankees were NOTORIOUS for mailing it in in spring training during the 30′s, 40′s, 50′s and 60′s…while they were owning the American League.
There really isn’t a lot of correlation between spring training and the regular season- the pitching and lineup changes are preplanned and not meant to really represent ingame situations, plus you’re using a carload of players who aren’t on the major league roster come Opening Day.
Regarding the Ron Judd column… Evan, could you please be a bit more clear when you post something like that? Your post makes it sound as if Ron Judd is out of line, when he was really blasting the low-brow Tribune journalist who created the issue.
Might not be what you intended, but given the tendency of eduated fans here to critique the Seattle sportswriters, it really sounded as if you were taking him to task – enough so that I sought out the article to see what he wrote.
Let’s be clear – Ron Judd was very graceful in implying that Johnny Weir’s sexuality is in no way anyone else’s business. He went out of his way to describe Johnny’s classy responses to classless reporters. Whatever else Ron Judd may ever write, he handled a very sensitive subject with class and dignity, and he should be applauded for that.
STEALING & TEALING (See # 34 & # 35) Nice going, # 35. About time someone seized on one of these errors (like “Sound fare”?).
IMO, this blog could use some levity now and then. Some of us should heed the words of John Riggins, “Lighten up.”
I remember being crucified on blogs last fall when I argued that catcher was one blackhole the M’s should definately attempt to fix this offseason given the the availability of Johjima/Molina/Hernandez and the extremely thin talent at all other needs positions in the market. Alot of people had stars in their eyes concerning Clement.
Dave’s and eponymous coward’s recent posts sum up the reality of the M’s system extremely well (humming an old Triumph song, “It takes time, baby it takes, it takes time, baby it takes time…..”. It’s probably easier to jump the snake canyon in a rocket bike than jump from a 30 game stretch in A ball to a starting catcher’s gig in the majors (for the record, Evil crashed and burned in his attempt to jump the snake canyon and im sure Evil had faith he was going to make it).
I think there were only two signings that may outshine the Johjima one (Loaiza and Giles). Bavasi probably didnt have a chance at Giles (hometown discount) but there was no reason that I know of that the M’s couldnt have been competitive for Loaiza. Also, im a little miffed that Bavasi allowed the Rangers to pick up Padilla for a bag of popcorn. While admittedly a a bit of an enigma, Padilla would easily be a number 3 or 4 in the M’s rotation. Not having a chance at him is pretty inexcusable. Given the cost of his acquisition (or lack of cost since the Phils practically gave him away) and his salary, Padilla may turn out to be the bargain of the off season.
On another note (Gillick-related), who in their right mind jettisons Padilla to make room for Franklin?