Position Roundtables: Left Field
Starting Left Fielder: Raul Ibanez
Dave
Before 2005, Raul Ibanez had never walked 50 times in a season. His career high, 49, was set in 2003 and came in 608 plate appearances. Last year, he walked 71 times in 614 plate appearances. That’s a 22 walk jump over his prior best. Or, for those who prefer percentages, he walked in 11.5 percent of his at-bats. In his 2003 season, he walked in just 8 percent of his at-bats. At age 33, Ibanez significantly increased the amount of free passes he took. We’re big fans of the walk as an offensive weapon, and we wish all of the Mariner hitters would stroll down to first base more often than once a week.
However, in this instance, I’m worried. It’s not just the increase in walks, which in isolation would be a good thing. Ibanez also set a career high in strikeouts with 99. Additionally, he saw a drop in power and a change in extra base hit distribution, with more of his extra base hits tending toward the home run side and less towards the doubles side. As players age, they lose speed in both their bat and feet, and they often compensate by adjusting their approach to only swing when they think they can drive the ball over the wall. This shows up in the statistics as an increase in home run rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, and a decline in batting average and doubles. Ibanez fits the mold to a tee.
Ibanez has reached the decline phase of his career. How long he can hold off the inevitable end is really up to him, how hard he works, and whether he’s willing to accept his new skillset rather than trying to force himself to still be the player he was several years ago. We saw first hand-hello Bret Boone!-what happens to a player who refuses to accept the changes in his physical skills near the end of his career. The end can come very, very quickly.
So, in order to help Ibanez fight the effects of aging, the M’s have… made him go from DH’ing to chasing balls around the most spacious left field area in the league? Bill James showed years ago that moves left along the defensive spectrum-in other words, going from an easier position to field to a harder one, such as from 3rd base to 2nd base or left field to center field-often end in disaster, and not just defensively. Now, its true that Ibanez did play left field occassionally the past few years, so he’s not changing positions per se, but I can’t believe that going from a regular DH to a regular fielder is going to help his body fight off the effects of getting older.
You can pencil Raul in for a .270/.350/.420 line and 550 at-bats, which is about what I’m expecting from him this year, but you have to keep the idea in your mind that there’s a chance that he’s just going to fall apart, that the effects of age are going to overtake him and he won’t resemble the same player we’ve seen the past few years. There’s a legitimate chance that, at some point this year or next year, Raul Ibanez is just going to be done.
And the M’s backup plans, in case that happens? A 35-year-old who can barely run and a 34-year-old who lost all his power and has admitted to using steroids. Fantastic.
Jeff
In the USSM Department of Crow-Eating, we’ve got a prominent 8×10 glossy of Raul Ibanez. At least I do. The lefty stroke the Mariners said would be perfect for Safeco Field has been, and the deal that I thought would chain the team to a declining hitter has instead proven valuable.
Bravo, Raul, kudos, Mariners, and as for mea, how about a culpa?
That was then, though. Each decision is a new world, and it ultimately doesn’t matter if genius or folly brought you to a certain point — like Buckarooo Banzai says, wherever you go, there you are. Finding your way from there is the concern.
And I share Dave’s concerns, all of them: the worrisome statistical trends, Ibanez’ age, and his return to patrolling the outfield full-time. As for the current left-field backup plans, the best we can say about them is that they evidently do not include Richie Sexson.
Consider, also, that the M’s have added another flyball pitcher to the staff. Defensively, selecting from Ibanez, Carl Everett, Matt Lawton or Mike Morse is like asking Jarrod Washburn which flavor of hemlock he likes best.
Forgive me for infringing on Derek’s fanboy territorial borders, but wouldn’t it be fantastic if this was the year a certain Australian’s body held together? The artist known around these parts as Doyle features a potent bat plus a favorable PECOTA projection, and he’d be a defensive boon compared to any other currently-available option. The Mariners are hoping he’ll be ready by the All-Star Break.
Speaking of the future and of contingency plans, neither Everett nor Lawton is likely to help the team beyond 2006. Morse is not the answer. Being able to pencil in — quick, everyone knock wood — Chris Snelling as heir apparent outfielder would be the ideal solution.
That’s not me giving up on getting productivity from the left field slot in this or ensuing seasons. Truly, no one wants to go back to the days of Mariner Left Fielder rivalling Spinal Tap Drummer in terms of jobs with the least security.
Ideally, Ibanez continues to perform beyond what some of us have expected. In a sub-ideal world, he slides a bit, gets nicked up and misses a few games. At worst, Ibanez’ productivity collapses or his body fails him, leaving the Mariners with a ragtag revolving door out there.
As a wise man said in the last line of our previous roundtable, “If everything clicks, look out world. But rarely does everything click.”
Dave
Glad you brought up defense, Jeff. I didn’t want to drone on and on, so I left my initial comments to his offensive ability, but his performance with the leather is likely to have a much bigger impact on the team’s success in 2006.
For all the complaints about the arm that Randy Winn bought off of an 84-year-old lady and used to hurl balls back into the infield with, he was a darn good defensive left fielder. He covered a lot more ground than the average LF and helped keep the team among the leaders in fewest extra base hits allowed. Ibanez has a solid arm, but is about as swift as a suit of armor, and the lack of range is going to be noticable.
I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating here; the outfield at Safeco is backwards in terms of defensive setup. While center field is still the most important position defensively, left field is not that far behind, with right field being the least important. The alignment of the walls is the big factor here. Simply put, the best chance for a double or a triple in Safeco is to hit one into the left center field alley. In most stadiums, right center or the right field line is the place for gap hits to turn into extra base knocks. However, because of Safeco’s short porch down the right field line and relativel shallow RF-CF gap, combined with the wall aiming caroms toward the center fielder, that isn’t the case in Seattle.
So, while it’s true that most teams can simply hide their worst defensive player in left field, the Mariners are not in that position. Left field is an important area for defensive value. Safeco is traditionally a flyball park, making outfield defense more important than in a neutral park, and it’s also a park that is at the extreme of run values on balls hit into the LF-CF gap. Balls hit there that are turned into outs are more beneficial than average, while balls hit there that get down for hits are more harmful than average.
In fact, if I was going to design a defensive spectrum for Safeco specifically, it would go SS-CF-LF-2B-3B-RF-1B. I’d argue that left field is the third most important defensive position (excluding catcher, a whole other animal) for the Mariners, and the fact that they’ve assembled a staff of flyball pitchers only emphasizes that.
Ibanez isn’t a catastrophe in left field. At the worst, he’ll probably cost the teams 20-30 runs over the course of the season from what they’ve been getting from Randy Winn. There’s a solid chance he’ll be better than that, and the real downgrade will only be in the 10-15 run range. But make no mistake; the M’s have sacrificed defense at a position they shouldn’t sacrifice defense. And they did it to get Carl Everett’s bat in the line-up.
Yech.
Jason
I didn’t like the Ibanez signing at the time, and I’m still not crazy about it — I guess I’m not all that impressed by a corner OF/DH who hits .280/.350/.450. Dave’s projected .280/.350/.420 line borders on pathetic for the position, especially when you factor in the potential collapse and the hit the M’s are taking defensively. C’mon. Seriously? A sub-.800 OPS with poor defense? These are the kinds of guys who supposedly grow on trees in the minor leagues. Billy Beane probably has one such player at his house for dinner even as you’re reading this.
Granted, Ibanez won’t be the thing dragging the M’s down this year, as Bret Boone and the catchers were last year, but he’s certainly not a guy pushing them towards a winning season, either.
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44 Responses to “Position Roundtables: Left Field”
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It will be interesting to see what the M’s do with Ibanez. The club clearly likes him. He is pretty consistent at the plate, he is quiet, classy, and a solid veteran for the clubhouse. I am really worried that the M’s will re-sign him this season to a really bad contract.
Of all the potential free agents this year – Meche, Moyer, Everett, Lawton, Guardado, and Ibanez – I think that Ibanez is the one that the club will most likely try to retain. But that would be a grave error.
I also hope that the nameless prospect can finally keep himself on the field in 2006. However, he is rapidly approaching the point of being relegated to DH fulltime. That could work out well, as Everett is a near lock to not be back. But the M’s don’t really have many other options to play LF within the system right now.
Choo is an interesting player. He definitely could upgrade the M’s defense in LF, and while his power is fringy, he did a good job of getting on base last year. He will need to have a big year to get a shot at playing everyday, though.
Adam Jones could also be an option, but he is probably two years away. But like Choo, he could be a very good defensive player in LF.
The M’s basically treaded water at LF and DH this year, and both positions are huge question marks beyond this season. The nice thing is that both positions are relatively easy to fill. Both spots are good places to fit in lefty power bats, which is what the team will need most. But there just aren’t many options currently within the system right now. Lets just hope that the M’s make the right moves by mid-season and next offseason.
Personally, I think the best-case scenario for LF/DH this season is a complete collapse from both Raúl and C. Everett Kook combined with an early and permanent return to health and top performance from Doyle. The latter is always part of the best-case scenario, and would help us survive the former offensively; the former wouldn’t be best-case in the short term, but would for the long term, as it would ensure that both are replaced for 2007 and beyond, hopefully by someone much better.
After reading this, the best option sort of jumps off the page. Moving Ichiro, your best defensive player, to CF. Moving Reed, your next best outfielder defensively, to LF. That leaves RF to hide a hitter, which we don’t have but we can save the spot just in case with Ra-stool, warm Carl or Lawton. (no poop joke for lawton, too early)
I believe this will be Ibanez’s final year with the M’s, which is fine. He has done a nice job and is an asset at the plate and in the clubhouse. Playing him everyday in LF is a bit of a concern, especially in Safeco, especially with pitchers like Washburn and Moyer. I wonder if the M’s have ever considered playing Ichiro in LF at Safeco much like Lou Piniella played him there in Yankee Stadium in the 2001 playoffs. I would feel better about Ibanez in RF at Safeco. Probably won’t happen, but it would be interesting.
By this time next year, Adam Jones may be in center and Jeremy Reed could slide to left. I don’t think Chris Snelling will ever be counted on to play LF a whole season, but would be a great DH next year.
I’m thinking that, if the team tanks again this year, Bavasi will almost have to keep Ibanez around to act as a stunt double for when he goes out in public.
I don’t even want to begin to hope that He Who Shall Not Be Named will be a factor in the outfield….
I’m thinking the M’s will offer Raul a job in the organization once he falls off his cliff… apparently, they already had him officially working with Morse & Betancourt over the winter
Does’t TJ Bohn deserve a mention as a better defensive option? Granted an implosion of current roster LF will have to occur which isn’t entirely unlikely. It would be interesting to watch his speed and arm in the field.
Like Jeff, I thought that the Ibanez signing at the time was a bad move.
I don’t see the increase in strikouts that Dave sees. He had more strikeouts, but he also had many more plate appearances.
Approx. Percentage of Strikeouts/PA:
2002: 13.3%
2003: 12.3
2004: 13.9
2005: 13.2
His walk increase is definitely a great sign considering that he spent the year mostly hitting in front of Sexton.
His power numbers were down slightly, mostly due to a weak August which incidently is the month he hit behind Willie Bloomquist.
Jason’s comment that Ibanez numbers are easily replacable by a minor leaguer is laughable. Ibanez’ 40 VORP is certainly worth what we have been paying him.
I think the M’s are aware that Raul isn’t a good bet to hold up playing everyday in LF. The LF/DH shuffle should revolve around Ibanez/Everett/Lawton/Morse, with Ibanez being in the lineup as much as possible. Morse should be the LF in the 20-25 games that lefties start against the M’s this year (the M’s will face a lot fewer lefties than in recent years because the West got really righthanded this offseason), moving Raul to DH. Lawton should pick up another 25-30 starts in LF to rest Raul some more at the DH spot. For those keeping score at home:
Starts in LF:
Ibanez 100
Lawton 35
Morse 25
Starts at DH:
Everett 110
Ibanez 50
Until Snelling is healthy, that’s the plan. When/if Snelling comes back Everett and Lawton could gradually disappear like Shiggy and Nellie did last year.
Morse will also pick up some games as YuBet’s caddie and Lawton should get a few PH opportunities for Lopez and YuBet.
Even if/when Raul tanks, we still will have to sit through Thump and Lawton before we get to Doyle. (Of course, Doyle would best be served as a DH). Here’s to sitting out this regime, and hoping that the next one has a fresh perspective.
What would be an interesting study is to weigh the number of runners Ichiro! guns down at third (from RF) vs. the number of runs our gaggle of leftfielders may cost us due to poor range.
Hell, the Rangers flip-flopped Greer and Gonzo when they switched parks.
There’s personnel issues involved with moving everyone around, especially considering that Ibanez isn’t locked in long term as the left fielder. While I think a Reed-Ichiro-Ibanez alignment would be the most effective at preventing runs, I’m not sure the difference is dramatic enough to justify the potential downsides involved with the shuffle. Particularly since its known that Ichiro has been against switching positions in the past.
Does’t TJ Bohn deserve a mention as a better defensive option?
This is a roundtable on the starting left field position. There’s a 0.0001 percent chance that Bohn ends up as the M’s regular left fielder this year, and that basically just accounts for a car wreck that ends the careers of half the major league roster. It’s just not happening.
Bohn will be covered in the roundtable on the potential bench players.
“Jason’s comment that Ibanez numbers are easily replacable by a minor leaguer is laughable. Ibanez’ 40 VORP is certainly worth what we have been paying him.”
My memory failed me, and I didn’t think that Ibanez’ VORP was that high last year. So, I checked his PECOTA card, and it said his VORP last year was 29.3, while sure enough, the VORP leaderboard has him at 39.5. Apparently, the difference is that on his PECOTA card, Ibanez’ position was LF and in the leaderboard, his position was DH. So, as far as I can tell, BP is setting the replacement level for LF higher than the replacement level for DH. And that seems pretty wacky.
At any rate, 30 VORP or 40 VORP, with an EQA around .285, I’m pretty confident that there aren’t a ton of minor leaguers that could step in and do what Ibanez has done in the first two years of his contract.
Re: #4 I wonder if the M’s have ever considered playing Ichiro in LF at Safeco much like Lou Piniella played him there in Yankee Stadium in the 2001 playoffs.
I’m pretty sure that Lou put Ichiro in LF so that Buhner could play his final game in RF in a way of admitting defeat before the game even started.
So, as far as I can tell, BP is setting the replacement level for LF higher than the replacement level for DH. And that seems pretty wacky.
BP’s replacement level is set at 85 percent of league average offensive production for that position. DH’s hit significantly better than LF’s, so thus, replacement level is higher. Why is that wacky? I’d say its perfectly logical.
Isn’t it reversed. Didn’t LF’s hit significantly better than DH’s last year?
No. The difference wasn’t huge, but DH’s outhit LF’s.
And, just logically speaking, the replacement level for any actual position should NEVER be higher than DH. Anyone who has the ability to play any position on the field also has the ability to DH, but the reverse is not true.
#2 what the hell kind of best case scenario is an utter collapse from some guys on short term contracts?
How about them doing well and the team doing well and making a playoff run (doubtfull) or more likely them doing well and the team not doing great and trading them at the deadline…its certainly plausable to get something decent for Ibanez at the deadline….why in the world would you want a complete collapse?
Dave – Can you explain how you determined that Ibanez strike out rates are going up? I’m sure you will prove me wrong in the end, but I just don’t see it based upon the K/PA percentages I list in post #8.
Thanks!
I’m thinking that, if the team tanks again this year, Bavasi will almost have to keep Ibanez around to act as a stunt double for when he goes out in public.
How does Bavasi get to stay around if the team tanks in 2006?
As for Jason…that .800 OPS IS at Safeco, where Flyballs Go To Die. The context’s a bit different than that same line in Coors, or even Arlington. Though Ibañez’s numbers aren’t really different than his KC Royal days, the context of his contribution has changed enough so that he’s a more valuable hitter.
And Raul is definitely on my list of “Mariners who the front office will likely keep a year or two too long for subjective reasons”…
I remember, Dave, you being pretty adamantly against trading Ibanez as recently as this past trading deadline. Considering your potential doomsday scenario for Raul, have you changed your mind?
“And, just logically speaking, the replacement level for any actual position should NEVER be higher than DH.”
That’s *exactly* my point. Leftfielders hit better than DH’s, that’s what I claimed all along, and that’s what you agree with. These are the numbers that I get looking at BP’s stats pages:
VORP
Ibanez, DH, 39.5
Ibanez, LF, 29.3
That just seems flat-out wrong to me. Maybe there’s just something going wrong with Raul’s PECOTA card, but it definitely shows him with a 29.3 VORP in 2005 with LF listed as his position on defense. Like I said, something wacky is going on.
Re #19: that’s why the best-case scenario includes Doyle coming back in June, playing every day and hitting .380 (along with Reed posting an .800+ OPS, Beltre channeling 2004, Sexson playing 162 with no dropoff, Felix channeling the 1984 version of Dr. K, Moyer bouncing back strong, Soriano at peak form in the rotation for a full season, etc., etc., etc.)–and Matt Lawton posting a .400 OBP and showing at least a little power.
Considering that the Oakland DH tandem of Hatteberg and Durazo combined for a 5.5 VORP, I think that Billy should be getting some of these Ibanez replacement minor leaguers out on the field rather than having them over to his house for dinner. This is actually starting to sound a little creepy.
Dave – Can you explain how you determined that Ibanez strike out rates are going up? I’m sure you will prove me wrong in the end, but I just don’t see it based upon the K/PA percentages I list in post #8.
No, you’re right, I did some sloppy work there. I eyeballed the K stats, and saw that the ’03 rate was obviously significantly lower (18 less K in 6 less AB), and didn’t follow up with the rest of the research. Good catch.
I remember, Dave, you being pretty adamantly against trading Ibanez as recently as this past trading deadline. Considering your potential doomsday scenario for Raul, have you changed your mind?
No, because I continue to assert that there is essentially no market for Raul Ibanez. The M’s are better off keeping him then dealing him for whatever grade C pitching prospect they could get in return, especially considering the potential alternatives at the moment.
Note that on the PECOTA card, his position is listed as 53-LF: he played that number of games at that position. It’s not so much “his position”
Interestingly, Raul Ibanez rates quite well defensively on David Pinto’s PMR, which he recently just redone with some ideas that I think are fantastic (using runs created against.. looking at the balls that did fall rather than the ones that were caught). Ibanez, on that system, rates higher than Randy Winn.
Sample size, sample size, sample size.
“Note that on the PECOTA card, his position is listed as 53-LF: he played that number of games at that position. It’s not so much “his position—
Sure, but playing different positions was the only thing I could think of that would change his VORP from the leaderboards to the PECOTA card.
Upon third examination, though, it looks like the PECOTA VORPs are just adjusted for historical context, so everyone’s PECOTA VORP is lower than their VORP on the leaderboard. So I guess when comparing Ibanez to other players last year, we should use his VORP of 39.5, which seems awfully good for a DH.
Re: LF, to me Bavasi & Co. just threw up their hands and piled a bunch of landfill in left when no good options fell into their lap. It was ‘build a berm, and wait for the kids to develop.’ Morse, Ibanez, Lawton, Everett, none of those guys _should_ be here next year, ‘cept those sub-geniuses had to cough up a second year to make Carl ‘comfortable’ with coming here. A miserable failure at roster building, as far as I’m concerned.
Ibanez is better in LF than one would think, i.e. acceptable, but far below Winn, that’s certain. Raul has been ripe for a big decline, and looking at Dave’s synopsis (even with the K-rate issue brought into line), it’s fairly clear his batspeed is eroding, or already gone. I’m hoping the Ms flip him for a bag of burgers at the deadline, but that’s not how this organization _typically_ thinks, July ’05 notwithstanding.
Young children should not be allowed to view Mariners LF play this year, in my view . . . or anyone else who can’t medically or legally get over the three-beer limit.
Punting defense is pretty popular this year.
Punting defense is pretty popular this year.
Which is especially frustrating since, regardless of all the popular explanations for the White Sox championship, they basically did it with fielding.
I don’t think its fairly clear that Raul’s batspeed is eroding. Every year people come up with reasons why Raul Ibanez is going to collapse, and so far Raul has disproven them every year.
He could very well start to show signs of collapse but I don’t think he has done this yet. When he starts K’ing and doubling more while hitting fewer HR’s or stops hitting lefties I will be worried.
etowncoug wrote:
I generally agree with you about Raul thus far staving off pessimistic claims of impending decline, but when that decline DOES come, I think you’ll see doubles go first, for reasons Dave explained in the post (plus, it’s harder to double when the legs start to go . . .).
I have been pleasantly surprised by Raul’s defense. Sure, he is slow, but he is pretty sure-handed, takes a decent route, and has a pretty strong arm. He really wouldn’t be bad in RF in Safeco. Count me among those who think that Reed in LF, Ichiro in CF, and Ibanez in RF (when those three start) makes sense, no matter how short-term Lawton, Everett, Morse, Ibanez, et al., are.
it’s fairly clear his batspeed is eroding, or already gone.
Actually, that’s not clear at all. The point of my post was that there’s a significant chance that Ibanez could collapse – not that he already has. He clearly didn’t lack batspeed last year, when he put up a very nice season.
There’s a chance he’s done, but there’s a much better chance that he’s not.
RE:# 7&13–Thanks Dave forgot the parameters for a moment. Appreciate the humor in responce. Will be willing to send limo for LF roster if it would help to get them in the same place at same time or an ambulance.
At the end of last season, Ichiro gave a little speech about how Mariners players weren’t interested in doing what is necessary to win. Having done that, it would be pretty rich to put his own comfort in RF ahead of the teams need for center- and left-fielders with both range and a good arm.
The only example I can think of off of the top of my head is John Olerud, who had his doubles stay roughly the same, but had 12 few homers in 2003. The next year he was DFA’ed.
When you have a quick bat the ball you hit into the gap goes over the wall, as it slows that homer becomes a double, and some of your old doubles become singles or outs.
It depends on how the hitter adapts. If they don’t try to change what they’re doing, then it makes sense that HR turn into 2B, 2B into singles, etc. However, some realize their speed is slipping and so try to start their swing earlier in order to keep that power. In that case, they become a more three true outcomes hitter.
What if Morse comes out this spring and hits .350 with power?
What if one or two of Ibanez/Lawton/Everett come out looking old old old and hitting like Spezio?
OK, unlikely. But stranger things have happened, and if we are looking for something good that might happen, mightn’t this be more likely than Doyle suddenly being healthy?
In case you hadn’t noticed “Voldimort” (the player not to be named), Doyle and whatever other name you’ve been calling him has been injured since your attempt to hide his name. Snelling is not a cursed name. He hasn’t played 3B here after the Bell. Chris Snelling will not be ‘Healthy’ until around the All’Star break. It seems obvious to me that it may be time to only hope for him to be a DH/part time OFer. I’d love to see him out there every day though. I’d rather watch him with the bat and not in the field than not see him at all. DH is better than DL.
Baseball Prospectus has come out with its annual top 50 baseball prospects, and the Mariners have four players on the list: catcher Johjima, catcher Jeff Clement, outfielder Adam Jones and outfielder Chris Snelling. Johjima, listed at No. 21, is the highest ranked.
Someone can probably look up a stat, but I really believe that Raul is at least as good defensively as Winn.
Winn was athletic, but his throwing arm was well below MLB standards. I would just cringe watching people take extra bases on Winn every game of the season.