Game 16, Rangers at Mariners
RHP Kevin Millwood v LHP Jamie Moyer. 7:05, Fox Sports Northwest.
After last night’s offensive outburst, Carl Everett is hitting .213/.339/.404. This amazing resurgence raises a question: how well does Carl Everett have to hit for me to be happy or, more generally, for people to shut up about how bad he is?
To answer the first question, Carl Everett’s not going to make me happy. Let’s move on.
I think the USSM author consensus (as much as we ever have one) was that Everett would probably hit around .260/.320/.425 with a good chance for a nasty collapse. That’s bad for a DH, though not horrible — the AL average DH last year hit for another 20 points of OBP and 15 points of OBP, which doesn’t sound like all that much, but actually is.
If Everett hit that, a lot more of the criticism would be focused on the management for giving him that contract, and people would be particularly concerned over whether his option’s going to vest for 2007. Grover should come under criticism every time he allows Everett to hit right-handed.
What would it take for people to stop carping about the deal? That’s an interesting question. Assume you can get a bad DH for free (we certainly saw some candidates bob along the creek past us this spring). To get $3.4m of value out of Everett, using a nice round (and, helpfully, pretty close to the truth) $1m/win, he has to hit like 2005 Raul Ibanez: .280/.355/.436.
At that point, you’ve broken even on performance from the slot, but then we have to remember we’re downgrading left… but I think if Everett hits .280/.355/.436 no one would be complaining about the value of his contract. And then we can complain about everything else that’s wrong with bringing Carl in.