Game 16, Rangers at Mariners

DMZ · April 19, 2006 at 5:35 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

RHP Kevin Millwood v LHP Jamie Moyer. 7:05, Fox Sports Northwest.

After last night’s offensive outburst, Carl Everett is hitting .213/.339/.404. This amazing resurgence raises a question: how well does Carl Everett have to hit for me to be happy or, more generally, for people to shut up about how bad he is?

To answer the first question, Carl Everett’s not going to make me happy. Let’s move on.

I think the USSM author consensus (as much as we ever have one) was that Everett would probably hit around .260/.320/.425 with a good chance for a nasty collapse. That’s bad for a DH, though not horrible — the AL average DH last year hit for another 20 points of OBP and 15 points of OBP, which doesn’t sound like all that much, but actually is.

If Everett hit that, a lot more of the criticism would be focused on the management for giving him that contract, and people would be particularly concerned over whether his option’s going to vest for 2007. Grover should come under criticism every time he allows Everett to hit right-handed.

What would it take for people to stop carping about the deal? That’s an interesting question. Assume you can get a bad DH for free (we certainly saw some candidates bob along the creek past us this spring). To get $3.4m of value out of Everett, using a nice round (and, helpfully, pretty close to the truth) $1m/win, he has to hit like 2005 Raul Ibanez: .280/.355/.436.

At that point, you’ve broken even on performance from the slot, but then we have to remember we’re downgrading left… but I think if Everett hits .280/.355/.436 no one would be complaining about the value of his contract. And then we can complain about everything else that’s wrong with bringing Carl in.


458 Responses to “Game 16, Rangers at Mariners”

  1. argh on April 20th, 2006 11:16 am

    We came within a hair of going to last night’s game just to see Millwood and because there were so many good seats available (box behind 3rd base for example). Decided not to at the last minute which, really, is to the good since I probably would have walked out after the 7th inning and then felt like (with some justification) a complete idiot.

  2. DMZ on April 20th, 2006 12:38 pm

    So I’m sure that no one’s reading this anymore, but a couple things —

    1) Coug got tossed in the mod queue because after I made the point about caps, he posted a comment designed to annoy people using poor capitalization. That kind of thing gets you tossed in the mod queue for a while.

    2) I’m annoyed that being honest that the accomplishments of Carl bring me no joy seem to have inspired such… I don’t know. Scorn? I’m deeply conflicted about these things, and I’ve tried to be honest about that.

    3) It’s amusing that when we’re not being attacked for being politically-correct white-people-haters, we’re being attacked as racists. That’s great.

    4) I don’t understand why everything gets simplified so badly, so fast: the start of this thread asks how much Carl would have to hit for people to be happy, with his performance and in general, and attempts to answer that question. It’s not a Carl-hate post or anything of the sort.


  3. shortbus on April 20th, 2006 12:45 pm

    434. I’ve got my 4-year-old chanting “STE-GA-SAU-RUS” when C.Rex comes up. Sometims kids are so precious!

  4. The Unknown Comic on April 20th, 2006 12:50 pm

    #31 First I call Asians, orientals and piss them off then I call USS Mariner a message board. I never cease to offend somebody.

  5. The Unknown Comic on April 20th, 2006 1:21 pm

    #34 Didn’t mean to get you all riled up. I was half joking. I realize this blog will probably never be down to 10-15 posts a night and the M’s aren’t doing that bad. Its just after the last few years you come to expect the worst from this team.

  6. Evan on April 20th, 2006 1:43 pm

    DMZ –

    While you told us that Carl didn’t make you happy, you didn’t expand on that at all. I don’t think you should have to, but you must realise that people will tend to fill in the blanks themelves if you don’t do it for them. People don’t like blanks (this is why statistics get such short shrift in modern society – they only talk about probability, not certainty).

  7. msb on April 20th, 2006 2:01 pm

    I guess I’m surprised that anyone missed the loooong discussions of Mr. Everett’s past history at the time he was signed; it is prob. safer to either generally google or to search the USSM “general baseball” archives than to open that can of ugly worms again.

  8. BelaXadux on April 20th, 2006 7:29 pm

    B. Rust: “Love the win, hate the winner”—that’s choice. : )

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