Random Mariner mid-week news
DMZ · April 19, 2006 at 8:32 am · Filed Under Mariners
Guardado hurts inside. You’ll hurt inside if you read Steve Kelley’s column on Beltre. In the PI’s notebook, there’s the same Eddie-type story, but you also get Gil Meche’s decreased velocity, Hargrove on Beltre.
Oh, and Hargrove says it’s not a center-field platoon.
On ESPN.com, Nate Silver puts King Felix #8 on his list of baseball’s most valuable players.
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So, the geniuses at KJR think that if a young M’s pitcher is struggling with control, the solution is to work them harder?
Brilliant. Maybe they can add to that by putting Willie in the lineup every day…
in terms of just value, I think that defense at first is comparable to defense at third.
Ehhhh, there’s a reason that big fat guys that can’t move are put at 1B all the time, but rarely or never at 3B.
And the platoon comments are endlessly amusing to me. Maybe Hargrove thinks that if he refuses to ever, ever call it a “platoon” then Reed’s fragile ego won’t be hurt, even if Reed never starts against a lefty.
I just don’t see how the esteemed Mr Silver could have made such a glaring ommission: Our Own Willie Bloomquist. I mean, just last night Hendu was raving about how he was a “run producer” that “just produces runs.” He did mention that he doesn’t actually hit for any sort of average, nor does he actually have many RBI, and that in fact he actually just barely outperforms my three year old brother(well, maybe not that last one) but he is a “run producer.” The fact that this little oration went on during the flight of Wee Willie’s foul out to the first-baseman just illustrates how great of producer he really is. A man that can draw such glowing praise in the midst of such dismal performance really does have a unique skill-set. And as such, he should most definitely be in all sorts of top-50 lists.
Ehhhh, there’s a reason that big fat guys that can’t move are put at 1B all the time, but rarely or never at 3B.
Because you don’t need a ton of range to catch balls when you’re supposed to be holding your foot on a base? Like I said, playing third base requires a wider set of skills, but that doesn’t make it more valuable.
While I would agree that many teams undervalue good defense at first, I wouldn’t say that it is comparable with defense at third.
To name just one thing, they can get away with deficiences on half the battle in catch and throw – the throwing. The throwing ability needed for third is much higher than first. And I think, as far as throws go, we can agree that catching a ball thrown across the diamond is easier than throwing a ball accurately and quickly across the diamond.
” Like I said, playing third base requires a wider set of skills, but that doesn’t make it more valuable.”
Sure it does, because it means that the talent to do it is more scarce.
Maybe Kelley’s right when he says that the Mariners are looking for the next David Bell. That would be consistent with the search algorithm that turns up hits for Everett and Washburn.
Isn’t the main reason that Pujols himself no longer plays third base, the fact that the Cardinals signed Scott Rolen?
If arod was on any other team he would be a shortstop. I think his value as a shortstop is a lot higher then it is at third since you don’t find a lot of SS that can hit 40homers and play gold glove defense.
I agree that A-rod’s value as a SS is higher than as a 3B. So how long do the Yankees leave Jeter at SS with A-rod at third? I remember there were rumors this offseason about moving Jeter to the outfield, but Torre shot them down pretty quick.
Plus, he’s a vastly better shortstop than Jeter.
John Dewan’s fielding book makes that pretty clear. Jeter’s dreadful.
#51–So, the geniuses at KJR think that if a young M’s pitcher is struggling with control, the solution is to work them harder? Brilliant. Maybe they can add to that by putting Willie in the lineup every day
coincidently, Willie was on later, as the star of Wednesdays With Willie. I think Willie has a great future in the coaching ranks, based on his fine early grasp of coach-speak.
Let’s stop using that term “Gold glove defense”. It’s so bloody random. Doesn’t Barry Bonds have like 8 of them? Has he ever in his career been among best defensive outfielders in the National League?
Evan @ #23
FYI – Fluid Mechanics is the more general term that includes both subjects of Fluid Statics and Fluid Dynamics. Fluid Dynamics is definitely the more complicated subject of the two.
Also, incompressible is the accepted term instead of non-compressible. Technically, water (or any other fluid) is not incompressible but under most real-world conditions water can be treated as such with negligible consequences on computated values.
I really don’t know a lot about fluid mechanics; I must be one of those people that can sound like they know what they are talking about!
John in L.A. said April 19th, 2006 at 1:21 pm:
While I would agree that many teams undervalue good defense at first, I wouldn’t say that it is comparable with defense at third.
To name just one thing, they can get away with deficiences on half the battle in catch and throw – the throwing. The throwing ability needed for third is much higher than first. [snip]
See: Jason Giambi, 1B, NYYankees, throwing to any other base. LOL…
Sure it does, because it means that the talent to do it is more scarce.
Value and scarcity are not the same thing. Perhaps a statistic will help explain my position a bit. Total chances and innings played for 2005:
Pujols – 1708 chances, 1359.2 innings
Rodriguez – 415 chances, 1385.2 innings
Even if Pujols isn’t that much better than the next best first baseman on a rate basis, over the course of a season, he’s going to handle the ball about 4 times as often as Rodriguez is.
It almost helps Pujols’ case that so many oafs are thrown out there on first base. That sets the bar lower, so that it’s easier for Pujols to represent an upgrade over league average.
To name just one thing, they can get away with deficiences on half the battle in catch and throw – the throwing. The throwing ability needed for third is much higher than first. And I think, as far as throws go, we can agree that catching a ball thrown across the diamond is easier than throwing a ball accurately and quickly across the diamond.
This all has to do with how easy it is to be competent at fielding first versus being competent at fielding third. But even though it is easier to be competent at fielding first base, that doesn’t mean that there can’t be a variance in abilities at first base. And because of the sheer volume of chances at first base, the variance doesn’t have to be as great for a first baseman’s value (defensive runs above average or something) to be comparable to a third baseman’s value.
This whole conversation is why I’ve joined Tangotiger’s side on the issue of evaluating a player’s defensive value.
Position does not matter.
When we get into trying to prove that Albert Pujols defense is more valuable to the Cardinals because of his superiority to other first baseman in comparison to A-Rod and third baseman, we miss the massive point that Rodriguez has a skill that Pujols does not. Whether you believe that all of baseball is wrong, and that better defensive players should be played at first instead of third is irrelevant.
Alex Rodriguez’s quickness, hands, and arm strength make him a far superior defense talent than Pujols. That’s reflected in his manager’s decision to play him at the position that everyone in baseball agrees is the tougher position to field.
This isn’t a value debate. This is a skill debate. Pujols is playing first because he lacks the skill to play defense, at any position, at a comparable level to Alex Rodriguez.
That makes A-Rod the more valuable defensive player. Period.
How do we compare defense, then? Does shortstop get spotted +40 runs so that a Jeter is still better than an outstanding defensive first baseman?
That seems to make sense, but I’m curious then how you pick the number of runs you spot different positions.
Once upon a time Pujols actually had the skillset to play 3rd. That was before the elbow trouble, foot injuries, and Scott Rolen.
Comparing him to A-Rod is asinine anyway because A-Rod should be a starting shortstop somewhere. (Maybe he would be better compard to Dave Wright or Miguel Cabrera).
Anyway, when you get down to it it’s pretty obvious that A-Rod can play short and 3rd well and Pujols cannot. It’s a debate over the quality of the chances not the quantity.
69
Wow, 40 runs, (that’s how many wins again)? I once read an article where a scout claimed that J.T. Snow saved the Giants 10 games a year with his glove. Now that would be amazing.
I dunno. Since there’s less ground to cover at 1st and fewer throws, I have a hard time imagining that he’d be better than a guy like Helton or Lee.
For anyone interested, MLB just released the offical 2006 draft order…. M’s pick at #5, #49, #81, #111 and #141 through the first 5 rounds…too bad we can’t trade picks…
http://mlb.mlb.com/pressbox/downloads/y2006/draft_order_06.pdf
OK, A-Rod obviously has skills that Pujols doesn’t. But different positions require different skills — A-Rod might not have the skills to play catcher (though I wouldn’t bet against him). The question the “position doesn’t matter” view doesn’t answer is the value of different skills.
It’s kind of like the question of how you value “scrappiness” versus the actual ability to hit or field a position. Hendu, for instance, seems to think that “scrappiness” is a skill with value on a par with the ability to hit.
I think the defensive metrics are still so much in their infancy that you have to temper all of this with some good old fashioned ‘baseball sense’. Ha! That will get me flamed I’m sure, but what I mean is it’s pretty obvious that a great defensive short stop helps the team more than, say Mark McGuire (gold glove 1B). The thing is you have anomalous cases like John Olerud who I belive was superior at recieving badly thrown balls at first and saved tons of runs that way.
It would be very difficult quantify the ammount of runs a 3B saves over a 1B without taking obscure things like that into consideration. Can you really spot the shortstop 40 runs based on his chances and ignore the fact that the 1B will be recieving throws on nearly every infield play and all the moves to first base?
My personal feeling is that very few firstbasemen have the skill that Olerud had so that is more of a special case, but there’s just so many variables in defense that it’s hard to quantify a solid metric. (at least as far as I understand things which may not be very far)
How do we compare defense, then? Does shortstop get spotted +40 runs so that a Jeter is still better than an outstanding defensive first baseman?
That seems to make sense, but I’m curious then how you pick the number of runs you spot different positions.
I don’t know, honestly. But I’m convinced that runs above/below position averages or some phantom replacement level is not going to work for judging defensive ability.
Which is part of why I’m a fan of evaluating a player’s skillset rather than a player’s performance record. You can use the performance record to decide what kind of offensve skills he has, but defensively, we’re still in the judge-by-skills mode.
While being a sparkplug on the bases is useless without the ability to get on base (except of course when used as a pinch runner), I am loving this discussion of position value.
Regarding the outfield, I’d assume that Centerfield is the most valuable, followed by Right, and then Left. Of course, this is not necessarily static, as a field with a larger Left-field area than right field area may place more value on Left. But then the ability to throw is more highly valued in Right field. It seems to me that Center has the need to cover ground, and optimally would also have a good throwing arm.
I’m just thinking back to the discussion of the Mariners optimum outfield alignment, with Ichiro in Center, Reed in Left, and Ibanez in Right. Ibanez has the worst arm of the three, but not abysmal overall, but he cover MUCH less ground than the other two. His being in left in Safeco just seems dumb. But I digress.
This whole defensive value discussion is interesting. That’s all.
Another thing to remember, Mat, is that of those Pujols chances, most of them are him standing on the bag, putting his glove out and catching the ball. A-Rod has to chase almost every single one of his chances.
66 and 67 – I’m not sure why Pujol’s improvement over other first basemen is relevant… because if you had A-Rod playing first he would be even better than Pujols, I’m guessing. Sure there are some different requirements, but I think it’s more than fair to say that playing gold glove caliber defense at third is more impressive than doing so at first.
Now, if you wanted to say that Pujols is a better first baseman than A-Rod is a third baseman, then that’s a different argument.
I don’t mean this to dismiss first base defense (I greatly miss Olerud’s underrated glove out there, for instance).
That makes A-Rod the more valuable defensive player. Period.
Sure, I’m willing to concede this, for these specific players. However, going back to the beginning of the discussion, my point was that it’s not obvious that a good third baseman is more valuable to his team than a good first baseman. Take two hypothetical third basemen, who are of roughly total value. Handsy McHands has limited range, but fields everything he gets to cleanly, and makes accurate throws every time. Flashy McFlash gets to a lot of balls, but mishandles a lot of them, or throws them away. And forget about range vs. surehandedness debates, and adjust the difference in each talent so they are roughly equal in value overall.
Now, say Scott Rolen joins that team. If you move Mr. McHands to first base, he’s likely going to be a better first baseman than Mr. McFlash, since having sure hands is definitely a more important skill for a first baseman than having great range. So now that I’ve found a position that McHands can play better, is he now a more valuable defensive player than McFlash? And do we judge a player’s defensive value by where he’s the best or by where he plays the most often?
And regardless of that issue, at some level, it seems like it would be a good idea to determine how many runs a first baseman is worth compared to how many runs a third baseman is worth. Maybe it wouldn’t have anything to do with how much money you would offer free agent players, but wouldn’t it at least be interesting to know really well how many runs above an average first baseman Pujols is compared to how many runs above an average third baseman Rolen is?
Basically, it seems to me if you take this position on defense that you’ve opened a whole extra can of worms that both makes it exponentially harder to judge defense, and puts you in a game where you have to guess how well a player will field a position that we’ve never seen him field.
Another thing to remember, Mat, is that of those Pujols chances, most of them are him standing on the bag, putting his glove out and catching the ball. A-Rod has to chase almost every single one of his chances.
Sure, I’m quite aware of this, and as I mentioned above just now, I didn’t mean to get into a specific argument about A-Rod vs. Pujols, I just meant to point out that it’s not painfully obvious to me that a good third baseman is worth more than a good first baseman.
But even though most of the chances are easy enough plays that I could stand out there and do it, there are the plays on the margins that some guys can catch and others can’t. There aren’t 1200 of those tough catches per game, but there doesn’t have to be, there only has to be enough to make up for the difference between hard hit balls towards first base and hard hit balls towards third base.
At this point my comment regarding the post seems off topic. I just wanted to chime in with regard to the David Bell – Adrian Beltre comments.
I think what Kelley may aptly be describing is that the Mariners had a sort of “grass is greener” mentality with regard to David Bell and that it has cost them and us greatly. That we have suffered because of getting rid of David Bell is certainly true. We could have had the same or better production the past 4 years for a lot less money.
What the writer lays out but is too chicken to say is that we should be expecting Beltre to rise to his talent level… which is about on par with David Bell.
So you think that Beltre’s talent level is the same as David Bell’s? Wow.
Don’t forget that a 1st baseman is naturally limited in range due to holding runners on much more frequently that 3rd baseman. Consider also, that saving errant throws is a valuble asset to the team.
At some point you have to say 2004 was an aberration for him. The people I know from L.A. sure don’t miss him and really weren’t disappointed that they let him go. Every year but one he puts up David Bell numbers just without the bat-throwing dramatics, er, grittiness… plus *expectation.*
And at some point you have to say that people who say that aren’t looking at his stats.
Beltre OPS David Bell OPS
2001 0.721 2001 0.718
2002 0.729 2002 0.762
2003 0.714 2003 0.579
2004 1.017 ! 2004 0.821
2005 0.716 2005 0.671
2006 0.421 2006 0.696
So Bell’s first reall year was 1999, the same as Beltre. That year Bell was 26 (the age Beltre was last year) and Beltre was 20. They put up a nearly identical OPS (.763 for Bell and .780 for Beltre). That’s pretty damned amazing. Beltre’s OPS at 26 was .716 so a little lower than Bells, but his average from 1996 to 2005 is 787.4285714 whereas Bells is 715.8571429 (yay excell!)
If you want to do the Bryan Price thing and trow out a number and exclude Beltre’s ‘carreer’ year his average is 749.1666667 which is still better than Bell’s. If you take out Bell’s best year his OPS average drops to 698.3333333.
Considering Beltre also plays vastly superior defense and was a better hitter than Bell while 6 years younger I think it’s pretty clear you have a much higher talent level.
Also, over Bell’s time in Philly the park factors were slight pitcher-neutral-hitter’s, while Beltre toiled in Dodger Stadium.
But really… come on
2001: wash
2002: Bell by 40
2003: Beltre by 135
2004: skip if you think it’s a fluke
2005: Beltre by 45
Beltre’s way better.
Beltre RBI!!!
User @ 64
See? It’s not that hard.
Everything I know about fluid dynamics I learned from my father, who studied Engineering in the ’60s, so my terminology is bound to be out of date. But again, it takes someone with actual knowledge to notice that.
1B and DEFENSE – This off-posted article dramatically illustrates the difference a good defensive First Baseman can make:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/schwarz_alan/1377032.html