More aggressive baserunning analysis
I’m going to stand on the shoulders of giants, as some scientist guy said.
Tom Tippett wrote a 2002 article on the impact of speed that gets into aggressive baserunning and Ichiro.
Today, I read an article on Baseball Prospectus by Dan Fox (“Baserunning, in two acts” subscription required) which build on a set of articles he wrote at the Hardball Times:
Circle the Wagons, Running the Bases Part I, Part II, and Part III
Part III uses run expectency in much the same way I started, but gets a little nuttier with it.
The short version of the BP article is that the Mariners were really good at baserunning last year, and there’s not a lot of room for improvement. Moreover, to sum the whole thing up, you have to be successful a lot to make it worthwhile and, as you’d expect, it depends a great deal on the game situtation.
Anyway, it’s good reading.