Game 18, Tigers at Mariners
Lefty Maroth v lefty Washburn, 7:05 FSN. This means we’ll likely see the not-a-platoon platoon with Bloomquist in center field and the backup infielder in Tacoma (well, that’s not entirely fair– you just put Reed in center and move Bloomquist in)(unless Bloomquist gets injured)(“Oh I wish
I disagree with the platoon arrangement not because I particularly think Reed’s a better hitter against lefties, or degrading the defense is that massive.
It’s that you don’t really know if a player’s truly vulnerable to one side or another for a while. It’s not as if Reed came up through the minors with scouting reports that said he was going to need a platoon partner, or was easily neutralized by left-handers.
It’s that if he’s not hitting against left-handers, he’s certainly not going to improve if he only sees them once every month. I’d like to see at least three seasons of being vulnerable to lefties before I write him off, especially since there’s nothing obvious in his approach that breaks down.
There are many left-handed players who were thought to be helpless against lefties because they did poorly in their rookie year (or even their second year), and later became good hitters who didn’t require platoon partners. If fear of Reed not hitting means he never grows, that’s a loss for the team and Reed.
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Is Lou bound to any broadcasting contracts at the moment? I’ve seen enough of Hargrove.
From Larry Larue’s article in the TNT this morning:
“It may simply have been a breakdown in communication.
Hargrove wanted Ibañez to stay at first, to insure that the Tigers pitched to Sexson, but that wasn’t passed on to Ibañez.
“No one said anything to me, and I’ve always been taught to be ready to go if the man ahead of you goes,†Ibañez said. “I got a good jump. In hindsight, I shouldn’t have gone.—
Calling a steal in that situation is as stupid as calling a double steal. “Never make the first or third out at third base.” Ever heard that one, Grover? Plus it’s a 2-0 count on a right handed slugger facing a left-handed pitcher. What, did the 2-0 count make Grover think Mothman was due for a wild pitch and he wanted Ichiro! on third to score on it? The least Grover could’ve done after that debacle was suck up the blame himself, instead of trying to tag a team leader with it.
And yes, running YuBet for Petagine would’ve been the smart move, since YuBet is a) a good runner, and b) would be the defensive replacment if it went extra innings. Just baffling. What in the name of Billy Martin’s Ghost do we need to do to get a decent manager?
the issue is that the _rest_ of the team just can’t scape together squat against lefty starters which are the only times Bloomers gets written on the card.
Uh, no. 4/7 vs. Blanton.
I’ve said it many times and I’ll say it again. As much as we know that managers don’t matter, Pinella did and was the best reason for the years in the sun…
246 – In all three of the one run losses in the past week sketchy managerial decisions have played a part in the loss:
Pitching to Varitek with the tying run on 2nd and 1st base open.
Sticking with a flailing Guardado.
Running themselves out a scoring chance on Friday, AND, leaving Washburn in for the 9th.
I was surprised to see Washburn start the 9th, and even more surprised to see him pitch to Pudge after Polanco and Monroe both hit warning track flies that must have travelled a combined 750 feet. Turns out I’m smarter than the manager. That’s not a good sign.
The running mistake that killed us was Johjima’s. He would have scored on a hit later that inning. Sexson made an out in his AB after Ibanez got caught.
The difference of course, is that Ibanez’ mistake was much more foolish…Joh just overran the base (but on a bloop single??).
The frustrating thing about the season so far is they have to finish the month on a 7-1 run in order to have their first winning month in almost three seasons and there are probably at least five games that they could’ve easily won.
This might actually be a silver lining since it suggests are capable of putting it all together and being a competitive team.
Quote from Ichiro in both the P-I and the Times: “If I was satisfied with the situation right now, I would quit baseball,” Mariners right-fielder Ichiro Suzuki said through an interpreter, his disgust apparent in any language.
Has Ichiro lost his cachet with the M’s FO, or are they just ignoring his irritation with the situation, namely the one’s that been ongoing between him and Hargrove since last year?
Hargrove seems willing to throw BOTH Ichiro and Ibanez under the bus (which is my interpretation of Hargrove’s comments on what turned out to be a failed double steal). That’s shooting himself in the foot. Difficult to believe he’ll last the season if he continues to blame players for managerial boo-boos.
There are many left-handed players who were thought to be helpless against lefties because they did poorly in their rookie year (or even their second year), and later became good hitters who didn’t require platoon partners.
Do you have examples of guys who hit as poorly as Reed did against lefties last year (.200/.285/.273) amd then came back to improve? The only guy I can think of right now that I know hit that poorly against lefties for a season is Jacque Jones, who hit .230/.269/.297 against LHP in his first full season, 2000. Tom Kelly had the good sense to platoon him in 2001, but then Gardenhire started playing him every day in 2002 saying that he just needed at-bats to improve against LHP. Four seasons later, they’re still waiting for him to improve against LHP.
I know they aren’t the same hitter, and it’s possible that you’ve got some examples of improvement up your sleeve, but Reed’s line was so abysmal last season that I consider it reasonable to keep him mostly out of the lineup against LHP, rather than praying he gets better.
Hit as poorly as Reed and then improved? It’s hard not to improve that line.
Not perfectly analagous but my case would be Eric Chavez, who in 2002 hit .209 against lefties (.209/.261/.362) and was discussed as a guy who might need a platoon partner for the rest of his career. By 2005, his 3y average against lefties was still not as good as it was against righties, but it was way, way up — .263/.337/.434
I’m not going to argue that Reed is Chavez, of course. But I think the point’s still good: if the A’s had platooned Chavez for years, it seems unlikely he’d have made strides against lefties and — and here I’m totally talking out of my butt — it’s possible he wouldn’t have made much of the overall offensive leap we’ve seen.
In other news…
Jesse Foppert was scheduled to start for the Rainiers tonight (6:05 at Cheney vs Fresno) but now, they’re giving Kevin Appier the start instead. (Personally, based on what I’ve seen of Foppert the last couple times, I am grateful).
You said he’s not particularly analagous, so I won’t try to get deep into a Reed vs. Chavez comparison here, but the difference to me, glancing at the numbers, is that Chavez, even when hitting poorly, had a huge edge on Reed in ISO. And to be fair, watching them hit, I don’t see much, if anything, that Reed and Jacque Jones have in common in their plate approach, but their results seemed to be similar. Of course, they are all guys with good enough gloves that even if they aren’t hitting that day, they can help out their team.
Reed does have a fair number of walks, and about his normal strikeout rate against lefties, so I do see some hope for Reed, but the relative inability to muster extra-base hits really dampens my outlook for him against lefties. For the right platoon partner, I’d probably put Reed in a platoon-y role, but I don’t see that guy on the bench, so I guess I’m inclined to agree with your inclination to let Reed work things out. Perhaps the point of my tale of Jacque Jones is just to emphasize the point that you have to stop hoping for improvement at some point.
I was hoping you knew of someone who’d looked at this, but I guess I’ll just have to file it in the ever-growing list of things that would be really neat to look at if I was really good at dealing with retrosheet’s old PBP data.
You said he’s not particularly analagous, so I won’t try to get deep into a Reed vs. Chavez comparison here, but the difference to me, glancing at the numbers, is that Chavez, even when hitting poorly, had a huge edge on Reed in ISO.
That’s really silly to say, honestly. We’ve all compared him to Rusty Greer — a career .305/.387/.478 hitter. But Greer played in a bandbox his whole career, while Reed plays in a pitcher’s park. So, you can’t say that he’s going to be this power-hitting machine, but he has the speed and efficency to become the sort of base-generating maching Greer was.
But Chavez was terrible against LHP. Now, not so much. And that says that Reed could also get better against LHP. And he still has more potential value compared to a utility infielder on the wrong side of 27. He has to learn to hit LHP, or he’ll be platooned forever, but he can’t learn to hit LHP unless he faces it.
“If I was satisfied with the situation right now, I would quit baseball,†Mariners right-fielder Ichiro Suzuki said through an interpreter, his disgust apparent in any language.
Mike Hargrove, Captain Bligh. Captain Bligh, Mike Hargrove.
I can’t find splits from 1989 anywhere… but how was Griffey against lefties his rookie year?
And what about Hank Blalock?
I’m a little confused as to the parameters here. There are a ton of guys who have hit that poorly against lefties one year and come back the next. Or does it have to be a rookie?
I mean, Reed only had, what, a hundred at bats against lefties last year? I don’t think it would be hard to find a multitude of guys who hit Mendoza against lefties for a hundred at bats, then later hit decently against them.
I love the link for “Tacoma”, guys.
On putting in YuBet to run for Petagine:
IIRC, that’s the third time the Hargrove hasn’t done that in a nearly identical situation. The other two times, Willie was the guy on the bencj who was alrteady detined to come on at SS the next inning, so he could have been the PR for Petagine. Does Grover think Roberto has speed? Or does he just not think that far ahead?
“Mike Hargrove, Captain Bligh. Captain Bligh, Mike Hargrove.”
Maybe we just call him Captain Blight?
Jesse Foppert was scheduled to start for the Rainiers tonight (6:05 at Cheney vs Fresno) but now, they’re giving Kevin Appier the start instead. (Personally, based on what I’ve seen of Foppert the last couple times, I am grateful)/i
From what I’ve read and heard, Foppert and Appier are sharing starts. In other words, Appier will go 5 and then Foppert will go the rest of the way. And then they’ll switch it around, Foppert will go 5 and Appier will go the rest of the way.
#14 shared a feeling that I’ve been uttering like a mantra all year. For those of you who haven’t attended one of my Transcendental Meditation sessions, it goes something like this:
“This team isn’t going to contend this year. Who cares if we win 72 games or 75? In whatever we do season, let’s do it with an eye toward 2007 and beyond, not to win a few more meaningless contests in 2006.”
In Reed’s case, that means let him play against lefties to see what he can do – or learn to do. The future ISN’T now; it’s 2008, or 09, or later.
268- He did pinch run for him except he used borchard instead of yubet which makes zero sense. yubet is obviously gonna be playing short if they tie it………….
But Chavez was terrible against LHP. Now, not so much. And that says that Reed could also get better against LHP.
Yeah, and the fact that Chris Carpenter came back from labrum surgery to do well means that Gil Meche might be a Cy Young contender if we just give him more chances! This is what we like to call anecdotal evidence. It’d be nice to see some kind of statistics on players with big platoon splits and how they change over time.
And my comment about the edge in ISO has to do with Chavez’s edge in ISO just against LHP. Reed’s offensive package against RHP is just fine, even if he doesn’t hit for much power. I still like Reed’s chances of being a very valuable player. But…he hit for something like 6 XBH in 110+ AB against LHP last year. That ought to be troubling. There’s a difference between not being a power hitter and not hitting for enough power, and against LHP, Reed is hitting for so little power that it makes one question whether he really has the ability to hit LHP well. Against RHP, I’m sure he’ll be just fine.
Doesn’t it take at least a few years to establish that a platoon split is real? I’m pretty sure Reed’s platoon sample size doesn’t come close to statistically significant.
I’m pretty sure Reed’s platoon sample size doesn’t come close to statistically significant.
Let’s look at his batting average first. He hit .287 against RHP in 436 AB and .200 against LHP in 110 AB from 2004-5. A somewhat typical platoon split is about 10%. Let’s make the assumption that Reed’s vs. RHP split is really indicative of his talent, so if we expect him to have a typical platoon split, we would expect him to hit .258 against LHP.
What are the odds that a .258 hitter would hit .200 or worse over the course of 110 AB? Let me rephrase it this way–if we have a coin that lands heads 25.8% of the time, what are the odds of it landing heads 22 times in 110 tosses? To cover our bases a little better, let’s ask what the odds are of it landing heads 22 or fewer times in 110 tosses.
The answer? It’s a 9.7% chance.
Now, what about his extra-base hits? He had 0.085 XBH/AB vs. LHP in 04-05, so you’d expect something like 0.076 XBH/AB vs. LHP. The likelihood of a 0.076 hitter getting 6 XBH or fewer in 110 AB is about 25%.
So having run the numbers, I’m a lot more optimistic about Reed’s chances of having typical platoon splits. His split in average is reasonably close to significant, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that stay a little on the low side.