Charting Felix
So, last night, I decided to chart King Felix’s pitches. We’ve heard a lot of scuttlebutt over pitch selection, location, mechanics, velocity, and what have you, so I busted out the ultimate geekery and tracked each pitch. Well, until mlb.TV died after it was 8-1, anyways. But, I got the first 73 pitches and the bulk of his suckitude, so here’s what I saw.
First Inning
Felix was clearly looking to establish the fastball. He threw first pitch fastballs to five of the six hitters he faced, and all three baserunners reached on fastballs. He wasn’t missing his spots, and his stuff looked fine, but he wasn’t mixing his pitches at all. My comment in the game thread after that inning: “Throw more offspeed stuff, Felix”.
Second Inning
This is where you see the A’s approach made plainly obvious; see fastball and swing. Felix got through the inning with just 9 pitches thrown, 8 of them fastballs, but the A’s were jumping on the first straight pitch they saw. They swung at 6 of the 9 pitches he threw. It made for a quick three-up, three-down second inning, but the tone was clear; they were all looking dead-red every at-bat, and they were going to jump on the first fastball they saw.
Third Inning
Ellis leads off the third by hitting the first pitch of the inning into left field. It was, naturally, a fastball. At this point, I’m openly pleading for offspeed stuff. Swisher fouls out after fighting off a bunch of fastballs, and then Felix has his best pitch sequence of the game to Eric Chavez. Change-up, Curve, Curve, Change, Change, Curve. Strikeout. All three strikes were looking. Chavez was clearly looking to hit the first fastball he saw 450 feet, but he never saw one. And he walked back to the dugout with a wimper. Then the floodgates opened.
Crosby reached on Beltre’s error, swinging at the second pitch he saw (shockingly, a fastball). Payton got an infield single on a curve that was just a lucky high hop. Then, the Melhuse at-bat. Melhuse fouls off a fastball, Felix misses with two pitches, and then, on a 2-1 count, bases loaded, where everyone and their mother knows he’s throwing a fastball, Melhuse gets one at the belt and launches it. Just a terrible pitch in so many ways. Melhuse has been swinging at every fastball he sees, and he’s a terrible breaking ball hitter. Compound that by leaving it up, and well, that’s recipe for disaster.
Kendall ended the inning by looping out to short on a change-up. Two pitches too late.
By then, the damage was done – Felix just went out there throwing frisbees in the fourth, and they continued to tee off on the fastball.
The A’s had a painfully obvious plan; hit fastballs, don’t swing at curves or change-ups. And Felix pitched directly into that plan. Of the first 73 pitches that I charted before mlb.TV got cut off, 68 percent were fastballs, 20 percent were curves, and 12 percent were change-ups. He threw first pitch fastballs to 20 of the 26 batters he faced.
His problem last night wasn’t command, mechanics, or stuff. He had the normal 2006 Felix package working. He just had a bad gameplan. The pitch selection was brutal. When I can call the next pitch coming with almost 90 percent accuracy sitting at home, you have to know the A’s were as dialed in to what was coming as I was.
I don’t know who is responsible. Felix has had this problem with both Johjima and Rivera, so I don’t think its the catchers. He didn’t shake off many pitches, but it might be time to start. My guess is that its a coaching philosophy to establish the fastball and work the breaking balls in for strikeouts. Personally, I think that philosophy is wrong.
Felix’s 95 MPH fastball is his worst pitch. If he figures out how to dial it back up to 98 like he had last year, great, feature the fastball. But right now, he can’t get it by hitters when they know its coming, so he needs to mix his pitches better. He needs to exploit hitter’s flaws. Chavez is a fastball hitter, and he got nothing but breaking balls. It was brilliant. The rest of the line-up, though, saw fastballs all day long.
How do you fix it? Felix has to learn how to pitch. I don’t know how to teach that. I’m a blogger – thats not my job. Hopefully, Rafael Chaves can instill some words of wisdom about gameplan and approach into the King’s ear. Because, when he’s throwing fastballs that often, he’s hardly royalty.
Can he ever be royalty again without the return of the (missing) 97-98 MPH fastball?
Good observations, Dave. It’s gotta be frustrating being able to see these things and not do anything about it.
Here’s to hoping the M’s finally get a clue. It’s certainly something worth trying (getting Felix not to throw so many fastballs). It’s something that would absolutely drive Hendu nuts.
So be it.
From what I’ve heard the extra couple of miles an hour on his fastball should come back in time. Here’s hoping.
Can he ever be royalty again without the return of the (missing) 97-98 MPH fastball?
Sure he can. He just needs to throw the other stuff often enough that the fastball is no longer the pitch for which the hitters are waiting. If they’re trying to hit the curve and the change, that fastball is going to eat them alive, but never if they’re waiting for it.
I actually agree with everything except for this:
“His problem last night wasn’t command, mechanics, or stuff. He had the normal 2006 Felix package working.”
Yes that was the normal 2006 Felix, but in 2005 his mechanics were more consistent and his stuff was better. He came into camp out of shape and overweight and now hes paying for it. When he tries to compensate by overthrowing he falls to first and has no idea where the ball is going to go.
Wasn’t one of the things that made Felix so special his poise? And his early knowledge of pitching?
It’s a tough line. How can a 19 year old who zooms through the minors help from relying on the pitch that got him to the majors? It’s almost as if he has to relearn how to pitch.
But ya, its frustrating to see guys sit straight fastball and have everybody in the world tell Felix that he needs to throw more fastballs. Wheres the logic there??
Can he ever be royalty again without the return of the (missing) 97-98 MPH fastball?
Absolutely. A 94-96 MPH fastball, the curve, and the change-up still give him better raw stuff than every pitcher alive. There’s no one on the planet who can match Felix’s stuff, even with the reduced velocity.
Yes that was the normal 2006 Felix, but in 2005 his mechanics were more consistent and his stuff was better. He came into camp out of shape and overweight and now hes paying for it. When he tries to compensate by overthrowing he falls to first and has no idea where the ball is going to go.
His curve and change-up are just as good as they were last year. He’s lost a little velo on the fastball, and it’s hurting him. I agree, conditioning is a problem. But there’s no way that this is the toll he should be paying for being out of shape. Even with the reduced fastball velo, he should still be terrific. Pitch selection will go a long way towards keeping him away from these crappy starts.
Wasn’t one of the things that made Felix so special his poise? And his early knowledge of pitching?
No. The thing that made special Felix was his stuff.
It’s a tough line. How can a 19 year old who zooms through the minors help from relying on the pitch that got him to the majors? It’s almost as if he has to relearn how to pitch.
The fastball didn’t get him through the minors – the curveball did. He couldn’t throw his fastball for a strike to save his life in Tacoma last year. He’d fall behind 3-0, bust out three straight curves, and send the hitter back to the dugout.
His two month stint in the majors was the first time he’d ever regularly thrown his fastball with good command. That was a different Felix than we’d ever seen. He got through the minors on breaking balls.
The league sits fastball precisely because its his worst pitch, like Dave said. They look fastball because they have no chance on the curve and change. The only way to be successful against a pitcher with dominant stuff like Felix is to look for a certain pitch, and the fastball is his worst offering (even though its a plus plus pitch when right).
Felix needs to come out next start throwing 90% curves and changeups, and he should continue doing that until the league actually starts looking for those pitches and hitting them.
Even when he starts settling in, he should probably throw the fastball no more than 40-50% of the time.
“But there’s no way that this is the toll he should be paying for being out of shape. Even with the reduced fastball velo, he should still be terrific. Pitch selection will go a long way towards keeping him away from these crappy starts.”
I agree.
His control suffers when he tries to overthrow, but doesn’t NEED to overthrow. His stuff excellent as it.
Felix needs to start throwing more curves and changes. He’ll figure it out.
It seems like the organization’s entire approach to pitching the last couple years has been “Throw to contact, let the defense do the work”. This seems to be something they are doing with all the pitchers, not just Felix… and for someone like Pineiro, it might actually be good advice.
But they’ve never had a pitcher like Felix… They know they can’t give him the same game plan they give Joel or Gil, right? Right??
Felix is going to get right, and when he does hes going to be completely dominant AGAIN. The worst thing the M’s could do is send him back to the minors. Amazing that the coaching staff hasn’t caught onto this yet, but I’m sure eventually they will.
It seemed like Felix was getting squeezed a bit on his fastball. The two pitches before the Grand Slam looked good on TV.
It seems like everyone except for Moyer lacks respect from the umpires.
The strike zone sucked last night, but Melhuse would still have sent that ball out.
This same type of thing happened to an area kid who threw 98 in high school. All he threw were fastballs, and scouts were all over him when he’d top out near 100. But for as many scouts were on him so were hitters. You can eventually time a fastball no matter how hard someone throws it, if it’s straight and you don’t mix anything with it. The kid was drafted, and after getting hammered in the minors they moved him to third base and last I heard he was in Low-A playing third still. This isn’t going to happen to Felix, but it’s not just major league hitter that are capable of hitting a fastball, and just like the A’s made it look last night other teams will easily hit the fastball if they sit on it. If they’re afraid of stress on the arm from the curveball (which is understandable) have him throw changeups. This mix will make his fastball more effective if hitters can’t sit on it and have to guess when it’s coming.
The other negative with overthrowing the fastball is that Felix sometimes ends up elevating the pitch. When its up, its straight and hittable. The solution is really easy. Tell Felix to trust his fastball and Joh to call 90% offspeed stuff for his next start.
Felix is having the same problem now that JJ Putz had last year and earlier this year. Just look at what a difference the split finger has made for JJ Putz.
There’s a fair amount of discussion here about the velocity of Felix’s fastball, and I’ve read some in the last day and a half about the movement thereof. I wasn’t able to watch the game last night so:
1. Is the movement gone, too?
2. Is the presumption that the movement goes hand-in-hand with the increased velocity (i.e. when the velo is back up, the movement will return)?
This same type of thing happened to an area kid who threw 98 in high school. All he threw were fastballs, and scouts were all over him when he’d top out near 100. But for as many scouts were on him so were hitters. You can eventually time a fastball no matter how hard someone throws it, if it’s straight and you don’t mix anything with it. The kid was drafted, and after getting hammered in the minors they moved him to third base and last I heard he was in Low-A playing third still.
Who are you talking about? Because I can’t think of any local kids who fit this criteria. The recent hard-throwing draft picks from WA include guys like Jon Lester, Andy Sisco, Blake Hawksworth (JC guy), Jeremy Bonderman, and Evan Meek. None of them have been converted to infielders.
The movement is still there if Felix can locate his two-seam low in the strikezone. An elevated two-seamer is like a four-seamer with less velocity.
The problem isn’t the fastball neccessarily (the velocity will return later in the year), the problem is the everyone and their mother is looking fastball and Felix is giving em what they want.
18. I’m not from the Seattle area. I’m from PA, near Philly.
I looked him up, he’s actually pitching in Low A now. He’s not doing bad either (they probably have him working a change and curve) 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA. His senior year he was supposed to dominated but ended up with 9 losses and a very high ERA due to everyone just timing his fastball. But when you throw 98 mph there’s a good change you’re gonna get drafted anyway I suppose.
18. I’m not from the Seattle area. I’m from PA, near Philly.
I’m still curious who you’re talking about.
It’s good to see a reason as to why Felix is sucking. It doesn’t help the fact that he is sucking, but reasons are always nice.
This completely contradicts everything that the Mariners announcers (boneheads…) have said all along, that Felix needs to “establish” his fastball.
Dave probably wasn’t the only one last night charting Felix’s pitches.
There was probably a bevy of scouts clustered behind home plate doing the same thing, and looking like a stampede of buffalos up-and-outa-there after Felix left the game.
Can’t wait to see if his next couple of outings have the same effect… Or do you suppose Raffy Chaves has thought of this, too, and is working with Felix this very moment to change the “game plan”?
I’m beginning to wonder just why the Mariners players have a manager and coaches. I’ll bet they’d do better with Ichiro running the fielders/hitters, and Moyer the pitchers.
23. Oh sorry Dave, his name is David Shinskie, playing with the Snappers now. It says on there he’s throwing a curve, changeup, and sinker now. Had he done that in High School he would have been unhittable.
http://snappersbaseball.com/playerprofiles.php?pid=1086
The A’s have a reputation for being patient at the plate (rank 2nd or 3rd in AL in pitches/PA and BB/PA). So the “book” says get ahead with first pitch fastballs. Grover reads the book. Obviously, the A’s made an adjustment against Felix lat night, which means part of the equation was Grover being out-managed. Surprise.
Last week I attended Felix’s Tampa Bay game, and wrote down as many of the scoreboard MPH’s as I could catch. (Of his 107 pitches, I ended up with speeds on 100 of them, and missed it on the other 7.) Here was his distribution of speeds on those 100 pitches:
97: 5
96: 13
95: 13
94: 18
93: 7
92: 1
91: 1
90: 1
89: 3
88: 0
87: 1
86: 5
85: 4
84: 12
83: 2
82: 10
81: 3
80: 1
79 and below: 0
So it seems that his fastball is currently running in the 93-97 range, and his offspeed stuff from 80-87 (I was in the third deck behind the plate, and am not sufficiently sharp-eyed to distinguish a curve from a changeup unless I’m seated much, much closer than that). I’m not sure what was going on with the scattering of 89-92 pitches– perhaps he was mixing in an occasional two-seamer when he usually goes with a four.
His count of fastballs/offspeed pitches by innings (using 90 as the “fastball” threshhold, and ignoring the seven “unknown” pitches) is as follows:
1st: 14/4
2nd: 8/5
3rd: 4/4
4th: 7/5
5th: 5/1 (note: three “unknowns” here)
6th: 8/6
7th: 7/9
8th: 6/7
So he seems pretty definitely to have been trying to establish the fastball in the first, and going almost 50-50 offspeed after that (with a slight increase in offspeed percentage toward the end of the game).
Of particular interest is the pitch sequence in his best stretch of the game, the last five batters he faced (C=called strike, S=swinging strike, F=foul, B=ball, O=out on ball in play):
(7th inning, Lee on 2nd, no out)
Branyan 83C 82B 81C 82B 82S (k)
Gathright 94F 82C 84B 95S (k)
Lugo 82B 94B 94O (63)
(8th inning)
Crawford 93C 81B 84B 94F 95F 84F 95C (k)
Gomes 83C 82C 82B 96F 97F 84S (k)
So he went all offspeed to strike out Branyan, and threw no more than two consecutive fastballs to the other guys.
So this all seems to fit well with Dave’s contention that Felix tends to succeed when he’s mixing in a good percentage of offspeed pitches. (It would be interesting to hear Rafael Chaves’ take on the matter, if an appropriate interview could be found to ask him about it… hello, Grand Salami staff….)
The key to successful pitching is messing up timing, and when you throw nothing but fastballs, unless you can hit 110 mph, hitters will eventually time your 4-seamer and tag it. Great strikeout pitchers don’t just have a good fastball, but a great change up and/or breaking ball that the use in conjunction with, rather than as a side dish to, their fastball. It’s the breaking 70 mph pitch and 80 mph change-up that makes the 95 mph fastball so hard to hit, not the 95 mph speed of the fastball. The change in speed is what throws the hitter off.
I agree with Dave. All Felix has to do is regularly throw those change-ups and curveballs, and his problems will disappear even before he gets the 97 mph velocity back.
The TNT story on the Felix game has this bit at the end:
Someone asked both Hargrove and general manager Bill Bavasi after the game if Hernandez might be better served being sent to the minor leagues than staying in the majors and losing.
“Fair question, but that’s not something we’d discuss with the press,†Bavasi said.
Then the manager and GM met behind closed doors.
It’s awe-inspiring (or something) to read that the manager and GM are contemplating doing the complete opposite of what most bloggers here think should be done, not only with Felix but nearly every strategy situation.
Reading a few little articles about pitcherson the official site…
…Fruto reported to camp at 270?
Something that is slightly overlooked in this discussion is Felix’s fastball location. When he misses, he misses up, which largely looks to be a mechanics issue. The pitch to Melhuse was a foot high and a foot inside of where Johjima was set up. Even if Melhuse knew it was coming, it would have been a grounder if he’d hit the glove.
His fastball, if he figures out how to locate it, is nasty enough to throw at any time (and will do less harm to his arm when thrown for located strikes). It just has less margin for error.
Just out of curiosity, Dave, there was talk earlier this year that Felix was tipping his pitches. Do you think he is tipping the fastball at all? It sure seems like they’re guessing right 100% of the time.
When you throw a straight pitch 70% of the time and the other side knows it, does it really matter if it’s tipped or not?
Good point, but they looked like they had a better line than 70%.
Tipping pitches is the biggest myth in baseball.
Something that is slightly overlooked in this discussion is Felix’s fastball location. When he misses, he misses up, which largely looks to be a mechanics issue. The pitch to Melhuse was a foot high and a foot inside of where Johjima was set up. Even if Melhuse knew it was coming, it would have been a grounder if he’d hit the glove.
Felix has never been able to command his fastball with regularity, though. Yes, it’d be great if he had Johan Santana’s command, but he doesn’t. It’s part of being 20 and inexperienced.
Mixing up his pitches is a far easier fix than fixing his command.
32 – I worry that that is exactly what management is fixated on (“Keep the ball down!”) and, being so dialed in on that, as always, that they are ignoring the more relevant issue of pitch selection.
I mean, if keeping the ball down was the simple panacea the mariners make it out to be, Meche would be Cy Young.
Regarding FB location – missing high can also be an indication of overthrowing, or trying to add velocity. Essentially, you try to throw harder, which means you bring your chest down and release off kilter.
So, there’s been talk about lowered velocity. If he really has lost some, I could easily see a 20-year-old trying to push it to get it back. And thus, missing high (as well as falling off to the side). Granted, Felix has always had FB command problems, but I thought it was more side-to-side.
Any indication on velocity? I know he missed some ST, but is he trying too hard, and overthrowing? What do better eyes than mine have to say?
Mixing up his pitches is a far easier fix than fixing his command.
His command will follow with a corresponding rise in confidence. Every guy who ever pitched off a mound can throw the ball over the plate when there is no pressure (see Ankiel, Rick). Put a pitcher in a high stress situation and confidence can be blown (see Ankiel, Rick).
Felix doesn’t trust himself and can’t seem to recall that his best stuff is a mix of pitches that do exactly has Dave has prescribed; which is disallowing any hitter to time his stuff.
Way back when he was King Felix, Felix was throwing everything for strikes albeit not consistently. However he could toss the curve or breaking ball for a strike along with a nice moving 2-seamer. I recall at those times his arm slot and movement was always the same, hence screwing up the timing of the hitter. They simply didn’t know what was coming. Felix was effective precisely because the hitter didn’t know what was coming and by the time they figured it out, it was too late to get good contact, hence the # of ground ball outs.
I don’t think he should go down to fix this. I think he should gut it out and develop here, against the hitters he’ll be seeing for the next ten plus years. It’s his Career ERA, let him fix it, nobody else can do it for him. Striking out mere kids in AAA is overvalued.
If I remember right from last year, the first time through the lineup he would dominate with a combo of his two and four seam fastballs. Then after that he’d almost exclusively throw change ups and curves. I don’t know what exactly it is, but maybe he has lost some of his movement on his 2 seam fastball so you’re seeing alot more solid contact. I think his dip in velocity has made his fastball much easier to hit.
A 97 mph four seamer – very hard to catch up with
A 95 mph four seamer – the bat can catch up to it and when it does…
A 95 mph two seamer – scary, involves a very close relationship with a higher being to hit
A 93 mph two seamer – still induces GB but can be done
Another thing to take into consideration is that a velocity drop effects more than just how fast the ball reaches the plate. A two seamer is dangerous because it moves so much and it goes fast. The faster a two seamer travels, the greater the force from the air is (F ~ v^2). (I think I remembered the magnus force stuff correctly from my fluid dynamics class. It also has another force maximum down near the Moyer range of velocities but thats another story.)
re: sending Felix down… those of us who attended the feed shouldn’t forget what Bavasi said about challenging prospects in the system, rather than working them at a lower level where they’ll easily succeed, rather than give them an easy trip through the minors and end up with players that get shell-shocked the first time they get hit around in the majors (a la Travis Blackley). The organization likely feels it’s in Felix’s best interests for him to struggle like this, as they feel he’ll learn more from it and develop the mindset to handle adversity.
Again, as Dave said, he didn’t seem to be shaking off Joh’s calls very often. Which suggests its not his pitch selection skill that needs fixing. Whether it was Joh by himself, or Joh following a managerial/organizational edict, that particular problem isn’t really (or entirely) Felix’s. He did what they told him to do, and he got shelled. An older, more experienced pitcher would see what wasn’t working and demand a different strategy in the mound conference (or just start shrugging off signs), but Felix didn’t do that. Though he might if this keeps up, and then you’ll have a problem because he won’t want to listen to anything the managers say.
Does anyone really think it’s Johjima calling for all these fastballs? Aren’t the japanese leagues far morebreaking pitch friendly?
Also, the last game I went to when Joh was catching he was getting his signs from the dugout.
re: #16
I’m sorry, but having Felix throw 90% curveballs and change-ups isn’t going to solve anything. A well-located fastball is the toughest pitch in baseball to hit, and all offspeed stuff comes off of that, or it loses its effectiveness.
The toughest pitch in baseball to hit?
Take a closer look at Felix’s curve sometime…
Dave makes a valid point that Felix might need to mix in more off speed pitches, but that alone will not solve Felix’s problems. I don’t think any of us, included Dave wants to see Felix throwing 40+% curveballs on any given outing. That can’t be good on his elbow. Dave may have implied or simply assumed, but Felix’s problem is still all about “location, location, location”.
Felix can throw more off speed pitches but if he doesn’t throw them for strikes it won’t matter. Pitching from behind in the count, like he’s done this year when he’s struggled is because of his lack of command. If you are continuously pitching from behind in the count it doesn’t matter how good your fastball is, especially if you can’t command it well in the strike zone, major league hitters are going to pound it, when they know its coming.
In order for Felix to truely reach his potential and pitch like we witnessed at the MLB level last year he’s going to have to develop more consistent command of his fastball. That will come with time and experience, but he won’t ever reach his full potential until he develops the kind of command we witnessed last year (as Dave noted that was the first time in Felix’s career that he has displayed that kind of command with his fastball). Now all of Felix’s pitches tend to have a ton of movement on them, which is one of the problems he has with throwing strikes. He can start his changeup belt level and inside to left handed hitters and it seems at times, the pitch ends up low and away outside of the strike zone. That much movement can make it tough to consistently hit your spots. His two seamer seems to have similar type movement, though not quite as exaggerated.
The key to Felix being successfull is that he has to gain the consistency to throw strikes early, be it with better locating his fastball or consistent offspeed stuff, allowing him to pitch from ahead in the count if he wants to be succussfull. He can’t continuously pitch from behind in the count against major league hitters and expect to be successfull.
As often noted, this is probabaly the biggest problem Gil Meche faces, as well (continuously pitching from behind in the count).
45, 47 – I think both of those arguments are a little circular.
You can argue the off-speed comes off the fastball, and you can argue the other way around, one without the other is the problem… and when you are throwing almost all fastballs, you are going to have a problem and it ISN’T the hardest pitch to hit, regardless of how well it’s located.
As far as the getting ahead in the count part… getting ahead in the count is a result of pitching well, not the other way around.
Meche’s biggest problem is that he’s Gil Freakin’ Meche!
Although he’s probably already made more money than I’ll make in my entire lifetime.
I don’t know if anyone kept track of how often he shook Joh off; I did notice one time in the first inning he shook Joh off twice and then threw a changeup.
I don’t think Felix’s issue has anything to do with the catchers. He seems to have the same struggles regardless of who is catching.
I think most of it has to do with him being 20. When you come up that young, there are going to be some struggles.
Breaking pitches don’t mess up your elbow unless your mechanics are screwed up… oh wait.
Well, by that logic, then throwing fastballs is bad for Felix’s elbow as well. In fact, throwing is bad for Felix’s elbow. Thus I advise that Felix not throw pitches, ever again
True, I mean look how Doc Gooden struggled when he was 20.
53 – there is a reason Gooden at 20 is an exception, not the rule.
Humor, man…humor.
#48, “Pitching well” as you say it, comes from having command of your pitches and being able to throw strikes. If you can’t consistently command your pitches, then you aren’t going to be able to consistently throw strikes…..and if you can’t consistently throw strikes then you are going to consistently be pitching from behind in the count. As Dave said, last year in the majors was one of the first times Felix was able to consistently command his fastball and he was extremely success, even at the young age of 19, at getting major league hitters out, because of it.
….and No, it is not a “circular arguement”, its one of the most basic elements of successful pitching. You must be able to command your pitches, especially/primarily your fastball to be successfull in the majors.
I’ll take Felix’s struggles at 20 in exchange for him having a LONG and succesful career (rather than tearing up the league at 20 like Doc, and then flaming out early!).
Having said that, I want to see him dominate again like he did last year! Man, was that fun to watch!
My theory is that management doesn’t want him throwing too many curveballs and his changeup was stinky (technical term) while warming up so he didn’t want to throw it. Pure theory, idle speculation. If I’m right (probably not) than I REALLY don’t understand why you would want your young stud pitching without his best pitch at his disposal? Maybe they’re trying to get him to be more ummm….say it with me…”gritty”?
55 – sorry, man, missed it.
56 – I didn’t say command was unimportant, I was saying that pitching better leads to being ahead in the count, not the other way around.
And he has been dominating, even without fantasic control. I agree it’s important, but i don’t see it as the big difference between the Felix we’re seeing and the Felix we’ve seen.
I agree [control is] important, but I don’t see it as the big difference between the Felix we’re seeing and the Felix we’ve seen.
For another perspective on Felix’s struggles, I turned to the Hardball Times pitching stats.
What I found there was that, for all his struggles this year, he still ranks fifth best, among 54 qualifying AL pitchers, in THT’s “ultimate stat” of xFIP– that is, Fielding-Independent Pitching, adjusted according to the Ron Shandler hypothesis that (home runs / fly balls) may tend to even out over time. (The top 10 in the category are Bonderman, Kazmir, Santana, Halladay, Felix, Haren, Escobar, Schilling, Mussina, and Westbrook– not a bad group to be associated with.)
Now, the xFIP number is based on three key inputs: K/9, BB/9, and GB%. Of those, Felix is (even with his struggles this year) one of the best in K/9 (#3/54) and in GB% (#5/54). He’s a little worse than average in BB/9 (#35/54), but not enough to drag him down much.
But in the HR/Fly category, Felix’s 25.9% ranks dead last in the league, about double the normal figure. (He does have company, however; Pineiro’s 21.8% ranks as #52/54, with only Radke in between them among AL qualifiers.)
When we turn to the DER stat– what percentage of his batted balls turn into outs, more or less– we again find Felix on the bottom of the stack, at .635. (His LD%, or Line Drive Percentage, is also a bit worse than average, at 20.3%.)
What is this telling us, then? Are Felix’s current struggles just bad luck? Maybe partly so. But I’m not yet concluding that that’s the entire explanation. I tend to suspect that the Shandler Hypothesis (and maybe even the Voros) is more valid in describing “good luck” cases than “bad luck.” If a pitcher has .850 of his batted balls turning into outs, or with 98.5% of his fly balls staying in the yard, then I would hesitate to attribute that to skill– if that were the case, it would be a skill previously unseen in the major league game. But if forty percent of his balls in play become hits, or if thirty percent of his flies leave the yard, then yes, it’s relatively easy to imagine a natural explanation for it: The pitcher is just making too many mistakes, for whatever reason.
So I think that Felix’s difficulties this year are real– but that they should be solvable.
Even if Felix isn’t reaching 97 consistently, his mid-90′s fastball should be more than enough. His stuff are breathtaking. In fact, it’s razor close to what Pedro Martinez had during his prime, the same three plus-plus pitches. I don’t understand why the comparison isn’t made more often. Despite their different builds and different batted ball tendencies, I can’t remember another pitcher other than Pedro who had three great pitches.
It seems to me Felix hasn’t had many games this year where he’s had command of both his fastball and breaking pitches at the same time.
First off, Dave, thanks much for doing this work, and posting it. It’s data compilations like this that is needed.
Paul/60: good job. It’s a rare combination to have a guy give up lots of HR and lots of GB! Note that the batting average on groundballs is higher than on flyballs (though the SLG average is higher on FB). So, getting a low DER for a severe GB pitcher is not unheard of. But it is extremely weird to have such a low DER with the quality of fielders he has at SS and 3B.
What would be interesting is to track Felix’s balls in play, and see how many are “close”, or if the fielders simply didn’t have a chance.
Tom
Felix Hernandez is a frontline major league starter.
The idea that they’re trying to keep Felix from throwing curveballs has merit. Not because there’s any proof that curveballs are any worse for your arm than fastballs, but because there’s a perception that that is the case. It seems like every move the Mariners make is designed to keep them from appearing to be to blame; if they limit Felix to 100 pitches and 190 innings, and tell him to throw mostly fastballs, it’s not their fault if he gets hurt.
Thanks to Dave for his great stat-taking and analysis. When Felix gets shaken up (normal for a young pitcher) and wants to try to blaze his fastball by people (normal for a young pitcher whose fastball has been touted), he’s got to remember the three simple rules of pitching:
1. Work fast
2. Change speeds
3. Location, location, location
He struggles with #1 when he gets shook up; he bombed on #2 in Tuesday’s game and has in other games, particularly in early innings; #3 appears to be a problem only with the fastball (though it got better last year when he came up).
So, if his fastball location needs some work (which several of us have agreed will get better with age and practice in the majors), then he’s got to focus on his offspeed location, changing his speeds regularly and working fast both when he’s doing well and a bit shook up.