Nate Silver on the King
Baseball Prospectus has a subscriber-only column on King Felix today. Nate Silver takes a look at his early struggles, and what it means for his future. Without stealing his thunder, here’s the basic conclusion:
Even if Hernandez pitches this poorly for the rest of the season, it would only increase his medium-term ERA forecast by about a quarter point per season, and reduce his VORP by about 13% per season. And itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s unlikely that he will pitch this poorly all season, since the categories in which heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s underperformed are the most influenced by short-term luck.
In other words, Felix is fine, don’t worry.
Which is pretty much what I think everyone knows.