Sports Guy reads USSM – kind of
If the server goes down this afternoon, blame Bill Simmons. He’s the most widely read columnist on ESPN.com, and, because he owns Felix Hernandez in one of his fantasy baseball leagues, found my post on charting Felix and threw us a link in his column today.
(As you know, he’s the shining light of my AL-only fantasy team, so watching him struggle for these first two months has almost been like watching a son flounder in Little League. But my co-owner Hench and I found solace in an incredible site called USSMariner.com, where the blogger charts the pitches in Felix’s starts and has a whole theory about how new Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima has completely screwed up Felix by calling too many first-pitch fastballs (and not enough changeups). Not since Julia Roberts in “The Pelican Brief” has there been a random memo this on target. It’s unbelievable. Now I’m resisting the urge to fly to Seattle and slice one of Johjima’s hamstrings.)
The link was nice of him. However, you can’t really take anything else in the paragraph seriously. Simmons is a comedy writer who uses sports as his setup for punchlines. The post mentioned that Johjima “should have made an adjustment”, which Simmons turned into “completely screwed up Felix”. Why? Because it setup the Julia Roberts and the slashed hamstring joke a lot better if Johjima was the villain.
But, to ward off any questions, no, I don’t think Johjima is the sole source of Felix’s problems. It’s an organizational thing.
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In other words, the “you have to establish your fastball early” thing I keep hearing?
sigh. well, the midday on-air topic today is ‘Felix to the minors or not’? Thank god Softy can’t read.
All he does is regurgitate conventional wisdom, whether it applies or not….
As someone pointed out in another thread, Felix’s stuff is so good, that he’s going to get AAA batters out no matter WHAT adjustments he makes. That makes a trip to Tacoma useless. He needs to figure out what adjustments he needs to make on the fly, here in the majors, where he can SEE the difference it makes.
An important point to make is that this is not Johjima. There’s a team approach (throw fastballs early) and there’s also the fact that they’re calling a lot of these pitches from the dugout this year.
Did you email Simmons on this yet? He’s really misquoting you guys here, I have never read any of you taking issue with Johjima’s pitch calling to the extreme he’s portraying.
I can’t listen to Softy any more. He’s a complete and total buffoon, no matter what the topic. Pure unquestioning idiot homerism gets real old real quick.
I’ll email Simmons the complete game logs once I get the project done. I’d be more concerned with the “misquote” if anyone actually read Simmons for serious analysis. But I think everyone knows he’s a comedy writer, and everyone takes all his comments with copious grains of salt. If he’s wrong, but he made you laugh, he did his job. And everyone knows it.
But “Jojima is a lousy catcher who calls a lousy game” is a meme now, a mind virus. Sherry Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense, Corollary B, I believe — if a catcher can hit, he must suck defensively. This is regardless of the “evidence”, of which there is none either way. I think it started with the discussion about a possible language barrier when they signed him. So it’s not just a meme, it’s evidence of humans finding patterns where no patterns exist, the same way seeing a baby crow causes me to miss the light on Stone Way. One point defines a line.
Yeah, there seem to be a lot of people — mostly outside Seattle — who want to see Johjima fail (I’d like to think they have some reason beyond xenophobia/racism… though I’m not sure what) and will jump on anything as evidence, “comedy” or not.
Simmons’ musing on his fantasy baseball experiences are usually pretty funny. I know many on this board do not engage in fantasy baseball, but it’s a surreal world where attributes are sometimes applied to a player that are way out of proportion to reality. It’s ripe stuff for humor, especially the type of humor which Simmons writes.
Anyways, congrats on the increased notoriety this will undoubtedly bring. Maybe you can get him to pitch your new book, DMZ (j/k).
It seems to me that ESPN as a whole is becoming more and more of a joke-oriented organization. It started at the beginning with Berman and his awful nicknames and has since extended from almost every on-air personality and any number of columnists to become their overall tone for sports journalism. As the son of a sports journalist (my father wrote football, boxing, motor sports, hunting & fishing for Sports Illustrated 1969-1983), I cringe when I see some of the content they publish. Aimed definitely at the lowest common denominator. I would not doubt that many who read Bill Simmons think of his writing as serious criticism and not as humor only. But then again, I’m a 40-something long time cynic…
I dunno. Comedy or not, some wacko’s always misreading stuff; it’s like a long game of Telephone, where “Maybe Johjima should start calling off-speed pitches” becomes “USSM says Johjima needs to spend time with Ozzie Guillen getting a crash course in Managing Venezuelans, after which he needs to punch A.J.Piezynski in the face.”
Well, maybe not quite. But the net IS full of wackos.
hey, as most guys on ESPN seem happy to accept what an anonymous ‘major league scout’ tells them is gospel…
I think you’re overestimating the public, Dave.
Does this mean Washburn’s ERA really want 3.20 last season?
Well, I think he’s underestimating Bill Simmons a little, too. Jokes are a big part of what he does, and if I ever read a Sports Guy column breaking down the Red Sox xFIP or whatever I’d probably have a heart attack–or at least sit there with a very puzzled look on my face–but Simmons does occasionally make an interesting point or argument.
I agree he’s prone to exaggeration or fudging in service of a joke, and that many readers will understand when that’s happening, but I think Simmons loves sports too much to think of himself as just a humorist. I think his article earlier this week about how Sam Cassell should be a player-manager was serious, for one.
Many good fastball pitchers, a club which I thought the King was a member at the begining of the season, are able to throw their fastball past a batter when they know it’s coming. Felix has had a problem throwing his fastball in any situation, as hitters have regularly teed off on it. Could this be a problem?
I agree with those who believe Simmons needs to be corrected. Joke or not, he’s perpetuating a harmful myth … and draping it around USS Mariner’s neck.
I view Simmons not as a serious analyst, but as a well informed, intelligent and humorous sports FAN.
My best guess is that he would view himself the same way.
That’s not to say he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, but he’s at his best at giving sort of an insider fan point of view. And he can be very, very funny in my opinion.
ESPN was on the right track with its “Page 2″, but as its serious analysis slipped, some of the comedy writers included a bit of insightful sports criticism, and now it’s hard to distinguish between the two.
I would take Simmons opinion ahead of Joe Morgan’s, for example. Not to damn him with faint praise, or anything.
I’d also venture a guess that if Dave pointed out to Bill that blaming Johima was not what he intended, and explained the systemic failure more at play… that Simmons wouldn’t balk as accepting that. He might even find it interesting.
And I really can’t blame him for jumping to the conclusion he did. I think most people assume that either the pitcher or the catcher is calling the game, and wouldn’t assume that the club is calling pitches, or mandating a style. Heck, I’m here every day, watch every game, and I STILL don’t know who is primarily at fault here.
John Donovan, of SI.com, goes through his “Hot Stove Redux” and comments on off-season acquistions. He quotes a scout, through the Seattle Times, that questions Johjima’s pitch calling ability and labels Kenji “an expensive necessity.” All in all, a very poor analysis by a writer who has probably seen no more than a single Mariner’s game all year.
this is the Donovan quote:
“Kenji Johjima, Mariners: The numbers at the plate are OK (.275, five homers, 25 RBIs) and the defense, despite all that preseason worrying over communication, appears fine. Johjima, the first Japanese catcher to play in the bigs, certainly is an upgrade for the Mariners. But at least one scout, talking to the Seattle Times, questioned Johjima’s pitch-calling. And Johjima has been ineffective hitting on the road (.220). It’s a work in progress in Seattle. At three years, $16.5 million, it’s not a cheap one. Bottom line: An expensive necessity.”
#17: Just like in real estate….its all about Location, Location, Location.
Page 2 is at its finest when they have the incomparable Anne Ursu contributing.
Many good fastball pitchers, a club which I thought the King was a member at the begining of the season, are able to throw their fastball past a batter when they know it’s coming. Felix has had a problem throwing his fastball in any situation, as hitters have regularly teed off on it. Could this be a problem?
Felix has rarely thrown his fastball for a strike this year. Just looking at the game charting I did for the last start against San Diego, of the 40 “strikes” he threw with his fastball (defined as a called strike, swinging strike, or ball in play), 9 were swung at and missed. Now, I don’t have a baseline to compare it to, but I’d imagine that 25 percent of your fastball strikes being swung at and missed is probably above league average.
The real problem was that 25 of the 65 fastballs he threw were called balls. You’re not going to get any swings and misses if they aren’t swinging.
#23– Page 2 is at its finest when they have the incomparable Anne Ursu contributing.
I thought of her this morning when they had the story of Matt Lecroy’s Adventures in Catching
Here’s the thing about Simmons, he’s a big time NBA fan, probably one of the few intelligent and truly loyal NBA fans in the world. However when it comes to anything else he’s not so well versed. Sure he’s probably followed football, baseball etc off and on throughout his life but he only really jumped back into them as the Boston teams became very good. A few years of Patriots and Red Sox obscurity and he’ll be back to writing almost nothing but NBA columns.
As for his readership go check out one of his chat logs or mail bags to see just how diverse they can be…
I realize this is totally off-topic [deleted, off-topic]
Oddly, I wrote #16, but not #17. I blame either increased traffic or my roommate sneaking onto my computer while I was in another room.
Anyway, isn’t this the opposite of what the ESPN expert mouthoffs were saying about Johjima at the start of the year? I thought he was being blamed for not calling enough fastballs. I’m not going to worry too much about Johjima’s reputation if they can’t even keep their story straight.
From the PI blog, a couple days ago:
“Early on, Hernandez wasn’t crazy about Johjima’s pitch selection. Hernandez, for all his pitch quality, is a power pitcher. Johjima comes from a place where pitchers survive by throwing breaking pitches in harmony with their fastball.”
E-mail Bill Simmons this comments section too, will ya?
In the spirit of overreaction, hyperbole, and “humor” exhibited by Simmons in that little excerpt, I vote we find out where Simmons hangs out and infect his computer with a worm, and strip him naked, cover him with honey, and stake him out in the picnic area at ESPN’s Bristol CN headquarters…retaliation for for Simmons’ more aggressive and violent suggestion for Johjima…
(just kidding…sort of)
Since Simmons is a fan of the site, I’m sure he’ll be reading these comments directly the next time he comes here.
and stake him out in the picnic area at ESPN’s Bristol CN (sic)headquarters
Other than the fact that he lives in LA, that’s a great idea.
I don’t think anything he writes is meant to be taken to seriously. It was written for the joke, and that’s about it. Consider it some free publicity!
I think on the NBA Simmons is very knowledgable, probably one of the best analysts out there, certainly better than many of the highly paid experts.
On Football he is pretty sharp as well, but a little more fan than analyst.
On Baseball he is more just out and out fan level.
Watching Felix both this year and last year, it seems that the real issue with his fastball iis not inside/outside but up/down (this may have already been discussed recently here, but I haven’t been going through these increasingly long comments sections). When he was flipping that fastball closer to the knees, he was getting a lot of swinging strikes because hitters would swing over it (his ball has natural dive to it), or getting them to chop it towards an infielder for a sure out. Now I see that fastball coming in at the belt or higher – it seems to have less movement and MLB hitters can catch up to it.
That said, if I ever have the time to look through the charts that get put together, I might revise my statements. Based on my observation, though, it’s simply a matter of bringing the fastball down 3-4 inches.
Earlier in the decade I lived in Boston and I had the chance to read Bill Simmons when he was just the Boston Sports Guy writing for City Search. It’s interesting to see his progression over the years from an informed, insightful and yes, funny, sports writer to what is essentially a comedy writer that uses sports as his medium.
On the Kenji topic, if most of the pitches are being called from the dugout, why aren’t people focusing on why Hargrove calls bad pitches? Oh, wait..that’s right: we’re too concerned with the fact he can’t manage the rest of the team either…
Steve Phillips on ESPN had Kenji as one of his biggest busts of the early season for his handling of Felix. Kenji is just becoming part of a baseball myth. Too many talking heads with bad information.
One huge change that I have seen is in game two or three, Kenji was very vocal, outgoing and in charge. That has died down and he is much more understated behind the plate.
Which is the real Kenji personality? I liked the in charge Kenji just because the team seems void of leadership.
Do something – even if it is wrong.
I am way more concerned about Hargrove than Kenji.
do you mean Brantley?
It’s a little unfair to call Kenji a bust for his handling of 1 pitcher. Meche, Moyer and Pineiro have essentially pitched as good or better than their projections. Washburn also probably a little better than projected.
I do wonder if combining a pitcher who is not super familiar with AL hitters with a catcher who also is brand knew to knowledge of AL hitters doesn’t produce some type of learning curve that they both have to climb in terms of pitch selection and location. But to call a certain battery a bust where both ends are fairly new to the league is simply unfair.
Did he throw this many fastballs last year? If he did, there’s probably something else also contributing to the problem. I usually am only able to use gameday or listen on the radio so I have a couple questions. Is there something wrong with Felix’s mechanics, like is he pushing off and releaseing diffrently? Or does he just not have that good of command, like Kenji calls for the low fastball but he keeps throwing it up high?
First off I want to agree with everyone who believes Felix will be fine. I’ve re-watched a ton of Felix games from last season, and compared them to this season.
Felix’s main problems:
1. Fastball command.
2. His four-seam (I believe it’s a four-seam but I’d have to see his grip…so the fastball he throws the most I’ll refer to as the four-seam) fastball doesn’t have much movement.
If you watch a lot of the other young pitchers who have 96+ mph fastballs they can rely almost exclusively on the pitch and get away with it for at least an inning. Felix’s four-seam fastball doesn’t have that type of movement. When he throws that pitch he has to get it to the corner of a the plate. This was my one complaint about Felix, even last season. The fastball that he generally starts hitters off with is straight. It’s still a decent pitch, but if hitters are sitting on it (and he throws it down the middle) they can do something with it (although when he gets it up to 98+ it becomes harder).
Now obviously anyone who has seen Felix pitch knows he can throw a fastball with incredible movement. I’ve seen him throw pitches at 96+ that move from the inside corner to down and away in the dirt. I assume that is his two-seam fastball (which is a ridiculous speed if it is). This pitch is extremely difficult to get in the air.
When he throws the two-seamer for a strike he is basically unhittable. However, he hardly ever has consistent control of it.
When he starts giving up hits with his four seamers he’ll go to his two seamers, but he doesn’t have even close to consistent control of it and that’s why he falls behind in the count.
Nearly all of the hits he gives up are on that straight fastball (although some of the ground balls through the infield are on the two-seam fastball).
Nearly all the walks he has are when he’s trying to locate the fastball that has movement.
He either needs to start locating the straight pitch on the corners, or start throwing the two-seamer somewhere in the strike zone.
While his fastball command has always been his main weakness it isn’t going to improve unless he keeps throwing them. The general philosophy the Mariner’s are teaching is correct, although the immediate results won’t improve unless he either improves his fastball command (which far from easy…but he had it for the majority of the games he pitched last season) or starts being a little more unpredictable with his pitch sequence.
Adding the more traditional rising four-seamer to his arsenal would probably help, I’d love to see how he’s gripping the ball, although I’d suspect it has more to do with what he’s doing with his hand when he releases the ball. I would be reluctant to change too much because that downward movement on his ball leads to the unreal groundball rate .
Speaking of which, on the radio right now Rizzs and Fairly are talking about how the key to Felix’s success is the controll and placement of his fastball.
Also, he’s throwing mainly fastballs.
well, you know he is more successful when he keeps the ball down….
Felix has been behind in the count to 3 of the first 4 batters he’s faced.
Can’t do that and be succussful……much better start on the 5th hitter.
“One huge change that I have seen is in game two or three, Kenji was very vocal, outgoing and in charge. That has died down and he is much more understated behind the plate.”
Yeah, it seemed like he used to go out to the mound more and generally just be a lot more animated…
no game thread?
ESPN is becoming the National Enquirer. Short on facts long on stories that grab attention or are sensational. ESPN hiring a guy like Simmons is case in point.
and, viola.
but classic.
Game thread mis up
Sorry. #64 should be – game thread is up