Updated Future Forty
Long overdue, but finally here, we have a new Future Forty. A bunch of changes since the pre-season update, as some guys go away and new guys join the club.
This was probably the hardest I’ve had to look to find 40 guys in the system that I felt were worthy of being listed. I finally relented and put the struggling Michael Saunders on the list just based on talent, because honestly, there wasn’t anyone else who deserved the spot. He’s not hitting, but he has some talent (even if it was overstated during the past offseason by folks who got a wee bit too excited), so he ends up on the list due to what he might become.
The system is a bit better than it was, mainly due to two things – the addition of Brandon Morrow and the current health of Doyle. Adding two upper tier prospects will help any system look better, and the M’s are no exception. They’re still a league average farm system, at best, but there are some players to like on the way.
One of the problems is we’ve yet to see any significant breakthrough performances this season. Last year, Adam Jones took a big step forward, but no one has had an eye-opening season that changes the way we view their future. Matt Tuiasasopo was a good preseason candidate, but while he’s hitting for average, he’s not doing anything else. The arms who are pitching well are mostly relievers, which just isn’t that exciting.
Guys who have improved their stock include guys like Francisco Cruceta, who still profiles as a back-end starter/swing man until his command improves, and Mark Lowe, who is showing some potential as a multi-inning setup man. Justin Thomas, who many of us shook our heads at last year when the M’s popped him in the second round, is also blowing expectations away.
There have been some disappointments as well. Jesse Foppert’s still not anywhere close to what he was pre-surgery, and Yorman Bazardo’s arm looks to be in bad shape. Shin-Soo Choo still can’t hit lefties and lacks the requisite skills to be a major league starting outfielder, and Clint Nageotte’s velocity just doesn’t look like it’s coming back. Unfortunately, the decreased velocity hasn’t brought improved command.
The prospects at Tacoma have been mostly disappointing, but there’s been some signs of life in the lower levels. As such, you’ll see a huge clumping of players in the “prospects – several years away” category. There’s not a rush of young talent banging down the door to Safeco, but there could be in a year or so.
And no, Michael Garciaparra’s not on the list. I’m not jumping on the bandwagon. Guys who can’t buy an extra base hit in the minors don’t make good major leaguers.
As always, feel free to use this thread for all your prospecty questions.
#49. Ron Wright. He’s out of professional baseball.
#49– Ron Wright “Ron Wright makes his ML debut in the game, going 0–for–3 and accounting for six outs on a strikeout, double play, and triple play. He becomes the 2nd player since 1950 to hit into a TP in his debut (Leo Foster did it for Atlanta in 1971) when Kenny Rogers fields his comebacker in the 4th. It is Wright’s only appearance this year.”
Wright, now 30, is a product of Kamiakin High in Kennewick. He last played for the independent Northn League’s Sioux Falls Canaries in 2004.
God I always felt sorry for that guy. He was really respectful of the chance he got and was a good sport about his horrible fucking luck. At least he gets some of the fat MLB retirment stuff, right?
Um, no. He does get other lovely parting gifts, such a line in the Macmillan Encyclopedia, a punchline to jokes made by M’s fans, and a year’s supply of Rice-A-Roni, the San Francisco Treat.
No Sean Green on the list? Is he too old or just not good enough in your eyes?
Green’s the definition of a replacement level reliever. His groundball rate makes up for his other deficincies, such as lack of any kind of second or third pitch and poor command, but he just doesn’t have enough going for him to be anything more than a 5th or 6th guy in the pen. Which is fine, but there are about 100 guys of that quality floating around the minors.
#57: What distinguishes Atchison from Green enough to warrant a place on the list?
#53– he was a coach at Dixie State College a year or so back…
#57: What distinguishes Atchison from Green enough to warrant a place on the list?
The ability to miss bats and occassionally throw strikes.
Dave,
In your view will Adam Jones overtake Reed in center by late 2007ish? If so, what do you see happening to Reed? I can’t imagine an outfield of Reed/Jones/Ichiro would be powerful enough to create a league-average offense. Do you Reed will be gone by then?
Should be “[d]o you think Reed will be gone by then”?
I wonder if Jones will come along that quickly. He’s not making a smooth adjustment to Triple-A, despite some fine moments as he goes.
In your view will Adam Jones overtake Reed in center by late 2007ish? If so, what do you see happening to Reed? I can’t imagine an outfield of Reed/Jones/Ichiro would be powerful enough to create a league-average offense. Do you Reed will be gone by then?
Jones probably won’t be ready to succeed in the majors until 2008. Depending on how he progresses, he might not be useless next year, but odds are against him taking another big leap forward and hitting his way into a promotion. He’s got some big strides to make offensively. He’s young, so there’s plenty of time for him, but we shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking that he’s going to be forcing his way into the line-up anytime soon. I’ve actually thought about dropping him out of the “close to majors” group because I’m not sure he is close to the majors, but there isn’t another group that really captures his talent level, so he stayed there.
When Jones is ready, the M’s can figure out what to do with Reed. He might play himself off the roster by then. He might turn a corner and make himself a valuable part of the team. The team has plenty of time to let the situation play itself out.
Dave, thanks as always for this list. I have to point out that George Sherrill’s birthday is incorrect. It should be 4/19/77; oh how I wish he were only 23, the same age as Blackley.
Two questions on the group that’s with the Mariners. What do Lopez and Betancourt have to do to reduce their risk. OK, it’s only a year (is that the issue) but they’re each shown the ability to be productive major league players, unlike Reed or Rivera.
Why is Mike Morse a prospect? Is it because he’s only 24 and in AAAA and might develop? Except for 2004 at AA, which looks like a fluke, he’s been a .700 OPS guy which doesn’t seem to have value as an outfielder. His upside seems to be Willie Bloomquist with a little more pop, less speed and no ability to play up the middle.
True or false: Stephen Kahn and Justin Thomas will be significant contributors to the M’s pen in 2008.
If Reed does turn a corner and become an adequate hitter by 2008, he’ll be a pretty valuable commodity. Competent CF who can hit are pretty rare (though the teams that have them always seem to have extra – the 2003 Mariners, the 2006 Jays…).
…but there isn’t another group that really captures his talent level, so he stayed there.
Hey — if they can invent a whole list of categories for Chuck Norris, it’s your system, you can create one for the Adam Joneses of the world.
😉
Two questions on the group that’s with the Mariners. What do Lopez and Betancourt have to do to reduce their risk. OK, it’s only a year (is that the issue) but they’re each shown the ability to be productive major league players, unlike Reed or Rivera.
Walk more. It might sound like the statnerd cliche, but guys with abysmal plate discipline who don’t make adjustments wash out. The book gets out on them, and they regress as players. Cristian Guzman is the quintessential example of a guy who had basically the same skillset as Betancourt, but got worse as he aged due to terrible strike zone judgment.
Why is Mike Morse a prospect? Is it because he’s only 24 and in AAAA and might develop? Except for 2004 at AA, which looks like a fluke, he’s been a .700 OPS guy which doesn’t seem to have value as an outfielder. His upside seems to be Willie Bloomquist with a little more pop, less speed and no ability to play up the middle.
This is a case where the scouting part plays a role. I like Morse’s swing – always have. I think there’s some untapped offensive potential there. Not sure that he’ll ever reach it, but he might. And in this organization, that’s good enough to squeeze into the Future Forty.
True or false: Stephen Kahn and Justin Thomas will be significant contributors to the M’s pen in 2008.
Kahn could be a contributor to the 2007 pen if he learns how to throw strikes. If he doesn’t, he won’t ever contribute. Command is his thing – if the lightbulb clicks, they’ve got something. Thomas, who knows. I just hope he keeps pitching well for now.
Well, this had been one of the most interesting threads to date. As a first time commenter, I also like some of the “hard” answers you provided, Dave. Surely beats the pants off which fast food restaurant is better when visiting Boise or Spokane.. Thanks for the thoughtful insight.
#70: That’s because David J. Corcoran doesn’t project well as a prospect.
One scouting report: “While Corcoran has a rubber hand that can type into deep post counts and can often pitch prose on back-to-back threads, he’s still struggling like many posters his age to find the rhetorical strike zone. His observational fastball is rated average ast best, but analysts find him intriguing for his ability to throw out perspective change-ups at a variety of speeds and slots.
“Despite persistent questions about his makeup and mechanics, Corcoran may have a solid future as an organizational soldier who can fill in occasionally on low-count thread-starts and give other regulars a rest. He’s also considered a mildly likeable asset in the cyber-clubhouse.”
#71- Classic!
Fill in the blanks:
Brandon Morrow will be substantially (better/worse) than Brad Lincoln over his career.
Brandon Morrow will develop into a number (1/2/3/4/5) starter in the big leagues with a career value comparable to (_________).
Dave said:
I think the team can win in the near future if they build the roster correctly.
I believe this statement really defines the issue. No matter how we judge the current farm system, winning at the major league level will depend on roster construction. I might also add that all the AAAA, 4th outfielder, utility types in the organization can be useful down the road when assembling final puzzle pieces into the picture. You only need 1 of these type of guys to develop just beyond his potential to have a useful piece that tips the franchise toward playoff contender. I’m thinking of talents like Emil Brown or Marcus Thames who developed late but hung around in organizations long enough to become key cogs on an MLB roster in their late 20’s. Thames, particularly, a refugee from the Yankees and Rangers orgs, is helping Detroit win more games this year.
A bit off-topic, apologies, but [deleted, off-topic]
There aren’t any slam dunks here. It’s part of the M’s high-risk, high-reward philosophy.
Let me back up here and ask, how viable is this philosophy? I think I realize that no major league organization weights its farm system entirely one way, but what’s a good mix? (Or what are the tradeoffs between the various philosophies? Do you mix in a few low risk, medium reward folks in (which would be the AAAA players, right?))
Dave, thanks for posting the future forty and answering our questions.
1. Do you have any insight into why the M’s took Ricky Orta in the fourth round? He seems to be an interesting selection since I can find no statistical evidence for why he would be selected so high.
2. What happened to Louis Valbuena? I thought he looked like one of the more interesting prospect on last year’s Everett team.
Jim Thomsen, I’d be careful if I were you. With your versatility in covering so many different styles, you’re liable to get pigeonholed as the Willie Bloomquist of commenters. Of course, you’re much more likely to hit a home run with your comments than he is, so maybe somebody like Tony Phillips would be a better comparison.
[sorry, responses to off-topic comments are off-topic]
I understand that (I really don’t think he’s very good either).
I was just hoping to get some insight into your thought process.
1) He was on your last list. (So he used to be “good”)
2) You said it was harder this time than last to create the list. (So there was a lower threshold to make this list)
3) He’s been promoted since your last list. (So, he’s performing against better competition with actually potential for “reward”)
I understand this is a non-scientific list that you’re providing for my convenience, at no cost to me, so I really, really appreciate it. Thank you! Just was curious about the thinking behind Woods.
Justin Thomas, who many of us shook our heads at last year when the M’s popped him in the second round
I just had to point out the Thomas was a fourth rounder (our second pick).
Brandon Morrow will be substantially (better/worse) than Brad Lincoln over his career.
No one knows. Seriously. It’s a coin-toss.
Brandon Morrow will develop into a number (1/2/3/4/5) starter in the big leagues with a career value comparable to (_________).
#3 starter, Jose Contreras. But he could easily be Jesse Foppert too.
Let me back up here and ask, how viable is this philosophy?
I don’t think its optimal, but its definitely viable, especially for a market like Seattle that can absorb large financial commitments. I prefer it to the “all college players” philosophy that so many statistical analysts have fallen in love with.
1. Do you have any insight into why the M’s took Ricky Orta in the fourth round? He seems to be an interesting selection since I can find no statistical evidence for why he would be selected so high.
They like his arm. That’s all I got.
2. What happened to Louis Valbuena? I thought he looked like one of the more interesting prospect on last year’s Everett team.
He’s doing okay in Wisconsin. My opinion of him hasn’t changed much – okay bat, iffy glove, mediocre prospect.
Just was curious about the thinking behind Woods.
I’ve seen Woods pitch enough this year to realize that my little bit of optimism was probably ill founded. There’s not much there to like.
Oh Mr Thomsen–A god
Churchill basically already answered this question a few days ago, but I’d like your take. As you know Mike Wilson is tearing up Inland. JAC’s take is that he’s way old for the league so it means nothing. But the guy is showing good power and good plate discipline, it’s hard me to write that off. I mean all you can do is dominate the level that you’re at.
Thanks for answering my question, dick.