Updated Future Forty
Long overdue, but finally here, we have a new Future Forty. A bunch of changes since the pre-season update, as some guys go away and new guys join the club.
This was probably the hardest I’ve had to look to find 40 guys in the system that I felt were worthy of being listed. I finally relented and put the struggling Michael Saunders on the list just based on talent, because honestly, there wasn’t anyone else who deserved the spot. He’s not hitting, but he has some talent (even if it was overstated during the past offseason by folks who got a wee bit too excited), so he ends up on the list due to what he might become.
The system is a bit better than it was, mainly due to two things – the addition of Brandon Morrow and the current health of Doyle. Adding two upper tier prospects will help any system look better, and the M’s are no exception. They’re still a league average farm system, at best, but there are some players to like on the way.
One of the problems is we’ve yet to see any significant breakthrough performances this season. Last year, Adam Jones took a big step forward, but no one has had an eye-opening season that changes the way we view their future. Matt Tuiasasopo was a good preseason candidate, but while he’s hitting for average, he’s not doing anything else. The arms who are pitching well are mostly relievers, which just isn’t that exciting.
Guys who have improved their stock include guys like Francisco Cruceta, who still profiles as a back-end starter/swing man until his command improves, and Mark Lowe, who is showing some potential as a multi-inning setup man. Justin Thomas, who many of us shook our heads at last year when the M’s popped him in the second round, is also blowing expectations away.
There have been some disappointments as well. Jesse Foppert’s still not anywhere close to what he was pre-surgery, and Yorman Bazardo’s arm looks to be in bad shape. Shin-Soo Choo still can’t hit lefties and lacks the requisite skills to be a major league starting outfielder, and Clint Nageotte’s velocity just doesn’t look like it’s coming back. Unfortunately, the decreased velocity hasn’t brought improved command.
The prospects at Tacoma have been mostly disappointing, but there’s been some signs of life in the lower levels. As such, you’ll see a huge clumping of players in the “prospects – several years away” category. There’s not a rush of young talent banging down the door to Safeco, but there could be in a year or so.
And no, Michael Garciaparra’s not on the list. I’m not jumping on the bandwagon. Guys who can’t buy an extra base hit in the minors don’t make good major leaguers.
As always, feel free to use this thread for all your prospecty questions.
Hi Dave, and thanks for the update.
Two questions:
First, and most important, what’s the story on Jeff Clement’s injury? How bad is it, and how much does it disrupt his development? And how is that development moving along?
Second, I notice no Brian LaHair on the F40. Why not? There are a lot of other folks who seem to think he’s got something. Why aren’t you jumping on the bandwagon?
Clement’s surgery shouldn’t be an issue long term. He’ll probably be back in mid to late July. The lost development time isn’t great, but he wasn’t coming up this year anyways. As long as he rehabs well, and there are no set backs, it’s not a big deal.
LaHair is the kind of guy who turns into a classic AAAA player. A first baseman without much power isn’t going to get anyone’s attention unless he’s phenomenal at something else, and LaHair just isn’t. He has some flaws in his swing, lacks big time power, and isn’t a great defender. He’s probably going to spend most of his professional career in Triple-A.
Why drop Castro and keep Saunders? There are people in the org who seem to like Castro significantly more than Garciaparra, for instance. Are the results from the month back enough to toss Castro off entirely?
Thanks for the update, Dave.
What kind of a player do you see Tuiasasopo becoming? He is hitting for average this year, but has shown little plate discipline or power. Do you think those things will come or is he destined to be a slap-hitting, no-patience corner outfielder (in other words, a flame-out)?
Castro hit .264/.286/.390 last year for San Antonio. He hit .275/.314/.373 in 2003 for Inland Empire. He hasn’t hit consistently since his half year in Everett, and that was now four years ago.
Tui will grow into his body. I’m not too concerned about him being a slap hitter.
Whether the plate discipline comes around is up to him. That’s tough to say.
My guess is he ends up as a right fielder who hits .280/.340/.460 or so. Dmitri Young with better defense.
This is great. I always love reading this each time it comes out.
One suggestion for how you might improve it is to re-evaluate how you compute risk. Basically, everyone is clumped in the 7-10 category, and it would be nice to see a little wider spread like with reward. … or maybe are they clumped because there is no one in the system who has a reasonable chance of going from the minors to the majors without either an injury or requires a major fix to some aspect of their game? Thanks for the clarification in advance.
Jeremy Reed was a “2″ in the risk category. He’s played himself into a higher risk category by failing to develop.
The basic answer is that the M’s don’t really have any low-risk prospects. Jeff Clement is a catcher who just had knee surgery. Adam Jones is currently sporting an approach at the plate that just can’t work in the majors. Asdrubal Cabrera needs to add strength and improve his hitting ability to show that he can start in the majors. Doyle can’t stop getting hurt. And Brandon Morrow has a history of shoulder problems.
There aren’t any slam dunks here. It’s part of the M’s high-risk, high-reward philosophy.
If they get any low risk prospects, I’ll call them low risk prospects. But right now, everyone has some serious flaw that they have to overcome.
Dave –
Have you heard any word on whether Chris Tillman or Tony Butler are likely to sign with the M’s? If they are, what is your scouting report on each? I see you have Tillman listed but not Butler.
Doyles numbers have been steadily dropping is he injured again?
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel was reporting that Butler would sign earlier this week, although I haven’t seen official confirmation that he has. Presumably he’s not on the list because he hasn’t really shown us anything yet. I think things would have to get pretty pathetic to justify including an unsigned third-round draft pick on the Future Forty. An unsigned second-round pick is bad enough.
Welcome to the state of the system, where the “best” pitching prospects are middle relievers with little chance of ever making a significant contribution. Butler may well be one of the 25 best prospects once (if) he signs.
That article on Butler says he was going to sign a few days ago. Strange that Baseball America does not list him as having signed (Adam Moore and Doug Fister are the two highest draftees to have signed according to that list). Negotiations hit a snag?
Thanks Dave.
You peg the M’s farm system as league average. What, in your view, can the organization do to improve it (understanding the state it was in when Bavasi got here). Are they doing enough? What would be sacrificed at the major league level to make your “dream approach” happen, if anything? Any promising changes in current approach (or hopeful staying of the course) that you see from this organization?
So, Dave, could you give us an idea of which other organizations take a high-risk/high-reward strategy similar to the M’s, and which ones don’t?
Saunders is a third baseman? He was listed as such in the draft, I guess, but box scores typically have him playing center field.
For that matter, is it time for the organization to own up to Tuiasosopo’s position change? He’s played eight of his last ten at third base, and everyone knows he’s not a shortstop long-term. I don’t know if he’ll stay at third either, but…
Have you heard any word on whether Chris Tillman or Tony Butler are likely to sign with the M’s? If they are, what is your scouting report on each? I see you have Tillman listed but not Butler.
Both will sign.
You peg the M’s farm system as league average. What, in your view, can the organization do to improve it (understanding the state it was in when Bavasi got here). Are they doing enough? What would be sacrificed at the major league level to make your “dream approach†happen, if anything? Any promising changes in current approach (or hopeful staying of the course) that you see from this organization?
Well, the goal of any major league franchise is to win at the major league level, not have an awesome farm system, so I’m not sure how much I’d sacrifice from the major league team to improve the prospects. It’s no secret that I’m optimistic about the core of the franchise – Felix, Lopez, Betancourt, Reed, Johjima, Clement, Cabrera, Jones, Doyle, Putz, Soriano – and that I think the team can win in the near future if they build the roster correctly.
Personally, I’d like to see the team focus a bit more on guys who can whack the baseball and a little less on guys who can do everything else. The organization could really use another Edgar Martinez level hitter, but the kinds of amateur players the M’s are aggressively pursuing are unlikely to turn into that kind of hitter.
So, Dave, could you give us an idea of which other organizations take a high-risk/high-reward strategy similar to the M’s, and which ones don’t?
High Risk-Reward clubs: Detroit, Cincinatti Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Florida, Minnesota, Atlanta, Anaheim
Low Risk-Reward clubs: Pittsburgh, San Diego, Toronto, Oakland, Colorado, St. Louis
I’d say most of the other clubs are more neutral.
The teams that are run by Beane or one of Beane’s disciplines in a small market are definitely risk averse.
#10– I think he’s had the flu on top of rehabbing the knee. Scott Hanson talks with Doyle today in the Times
#16– Hanson mentioned that this morning “Matt Tuiasosopo, the Woodinville High graduate who was the Mariners’ top draft pick in 2004, played six of seven games at third base last week, but that doesn’t mean he is there to stay. “It’s all about versatility,” said Greg Hunter, the Mariners’ director of minor-league operations. “In no way have we given up on him as a shortstop. We just want him to learn new positions, to give him the best chance to get to the big leagues as soon as possible.”
Saunders is a third baseman? He was listed as such in the draft, I guess, but box scores typically have him playing center field.
That was a brain freeze. I’ll fix it.
Did Johnson get bumped up from “Role Player” ststus? He always seemed like a backup catcher type to me, but since he has been keeping his head above water in the face of a rapid promotion rate, he seems like he might be rising a bit.
Also-O’Flaherty seems to be doing some good things in relief. Any chance he returns to a starting role, where he might have a little more value, or does he lack the repertoire?
Any comments about how Joe Woerman is mowing everybody down with lots of strikeouts? I don’t know anything about his stuff and it’s only Wisconsin, so maybe he doesn’t warrant being on the list, but is he potentially of interest or is this a mirage?
#18 thanks for the link
So, as a followup, Dave, which clubs are good at the highrisk strategies (and which aren’t), and which ones are bad at lowrisk (and aren’t). Are there any common themes you can discern?
And I agree about wanting a hitter- but it’s always seemed we like the tools-y types more than guys who can flat-out hit. Tino was probably the last high draft choice we spent on a hitter (IIRC, he was tagged as a 1B back when we drafted him).
Brian Smith (Baseball Analysts) puts Asdrubal Cabrera on his list of guys who are stuck in the minors despite being great talents. Of course he acknowledges that Cabrera isn’t ready for the show just yet, but with Betencourt and Lopez up the middle for years to come, will Cabrera ever get a shot with the M’s?
Barring a trade of a highly paid corner infielder or a young/cheap guy almost anywhere else (or an injury, but let’s not go there), the only real room for guys coming up in the next couple years is at DH or the bench, and we know Everett is just keeping the DH spot warm for a certain cult hero.
I guess my point is, as far as hitters go, I think we’re looking at almost the entire 2008 starting lineup right now. What does that mean for guys like Cabrera, Jones, Clement, Tui and others?
On the other hand, it’s nice to be able to focus free agent and scouting money on only one thing: pitching.
Is there anyone on the FF that can help us as a late season call up offensively? Gammon’s has an interesting point about the Ms quality starts this year – we’re 3rd in the AL! Could Doyle help?
“Quality starts are not the be-all, end-all to evaluate starting pitching, but the White Sox — with nearly half their payroll tied up in their five-man rotation — proved last season that the game revolves around quality starting pitching more than anything else. Thanks to the Elias Sports Bureau, here are the quality start leaders through the games of June 11.
Quality Starts
NL AL
Los Angeles 39 Detroit 38
San Diego 35 Chicago 36
Houston 34 Seattle 34
Cincinnati 34 Los Angeles 32
New York 33 Texas 31
Arizona 33 Boston 30
Milwaukee 33 New York 29
St. Louis 33 Oakland 29
Colorado 31 Cleveland 28
Pittsburgh 31 Tampa Bay 26
Washington 31 Baltimore 22
San Fran 31 Minnesota 22
Florida 30 Toronto 20
Philadelphia 29 Kansas City 14
Chicago 27
Atlanta 26
The QS leaders in each National League division are in first place (Cincinnati and Houston are co-leaders). Why are the Tigers where they are? The AL West is the exception, although it is interesting to see where the Mariners rank; their pitching and the remarkable Ichiro Suzuki have put them right into that sideways race.
Why did Jake Woods drop off the list? Is it MLB service time? Or age?
The thing about a high-risk strategy is that you need a lot of data to separate skill from luck. In other words, the definition of the difference between high-risk and low-risk is the amount of luck required to be successful. It’s easy to compare the outcomes of two low-risk strategies and discern which one was better. But two high-risk strategies can have wildly different outcomes (everybody got hurt, or everybody came back from surgery/jail/rehab/minor-leage position-change/complete swing overhaul to put up career years) and it’s hard to say if the people in charge could really see/project something nobody else could or they just got lucky (or snakebit). Over enough time you can discern a trend, but unless they get lucky early (or ownership is really bought in) not many high-risk GMs stick around long enough for that to happen. Which is one of the things that leads people towards lower-risk strategies.
Having good prospects is always good, even if they’re blocked…. assuming your GM is willing to trade and shows some talent for doing so.
I don’t know that I’d put Clement in the blocked category. His knee problems actually make things better, at least from a timing standpoint. Johjima is signed through 2008, and with the workload he’s been getting he’s going to need a more regular backup (I’m going to assume that Hargrove won’t be making the decisions, or if he is Clement’s hitting ability will be persuasive enough to sit Joh a little more regularly — oh, hell, I’m just going to assume Hargrove is gone). On the other hand, if the injury forces him away from catching duties then there might be a problem (he’d be blocked by Sexson until 2008, for example, and we already have one bum-legged minor-leage hitter hobbling towards the DH spot).
27:
Or the fact that he has no upside and he sucks?
Dave,
Casey Craig: has the best bat on a very disappointing Wisconsin team, but still has plenty of attitude problems. Is there anything he can do to play his way back into the org’s good graces, or are they pretty much fed up with him?
So, say it’s a month from now and the M’s are still just four or so games out of first. Who’s trade bait?
Why did Hunter Brown drop off the list? He’s been producing pretty consistently this year, especially since the real umpires came back; he has the highest OPS of any of the regulars on the team except Garciaparra. I guess our team really doesn’t need another utility guy, but still, I’m wondering what’s wrong with him that he isn’t a real prospect… age, I guess? (Nobody on the list was born before 1980.)
Dave, barring an unforeseen breakthrough by someone in the second half, Livingston and Cruceta are apparently the top internal candidates to take the Pineiro and Meche rotation spots next year. Do you scramble to find two new starters by trade or free agency, or do you trust that at least one of the two can adequately fill one spot for the league minimum?
What happened to Sebastien Boucher? He seemed like he had some upside.
#35– I’m guessing this isn’t him …
I’m trying to figure out how much salary we have coming off the books at the end of this season. So far I’ve only found Pineiro’s $6 million, Eddie’s $6 million, plus another $3 million I think we’re still paying Spiezio.
But that’s easily enough to find a serviceable starter. Assuming the team knows how to identify a serviceable starter.
Double-A happened to Boucher. He’s hitting .209 with only 3 extra base hits all year long. Unless we find out he’s been playing without the use of one limb all year long, odds are he’s done.
Why no Blackley?
He’s reportedly back up to the 87-89mph range, and it seems like his rehab is going about as well as could possibly be expected at this point.
Also, have you heard anything from the Ms about Kuo-Hui Lo? He was left off the first round of additions to the short-season rosters, but I assume he’ll play in Everett this year.
Evan,
There may be a little more than that available if the team passes over the internal options for the rotation. Meche ($3.7 million) and Everett ($4 million including buyout if option does not vest) also come off the books. Moyer is also year-to-year now ($5.5 million plus incentives), but he probably will re-sign at this point. Soriano and Putz will get decent raises as arbitration eligible players. Snelling might qualify for arbitration too. It does not look like Lopez or Reed will have enough service time to qualify for arbitration as “super two” players.
Of course, with declining attendance, the payroll is not guaranteed to remain the same.
Did Johnson get bumped up from “Role Player†ststus? He always seemed like a backup catcher type to me, but since he has been keeping his head above water in the face of a rapid promotion rate, he seems like he might be rising a bit.
I doubt he’s ever going to hit enough to be a regular. They love his leadership and his catch-and-throw potential, but he’s probably looking at a Charlie O’Brien career path.
Also-O’Flaherty seems to be doing some good things in relief. Any chance he returns to a starting role, where he might have a little more value, or does he lack the repertoire?
The M’s will almost definitely try either O’Flaherty or Lowe back in the rotation at some point.
Any comments about how Joe Woerman is mowing everybody down with lots of strikeouts? I don’t know anything about his stuff and it’s only Wisconsin, so maybe he doesn’t warrant being on the list, but is he potentially of interest or is this a mirage?
He’s a fringe guy who is having a great year, no doubt, and is opening some eyes, but is still viewed as an organizational player.
I guess my point is, as far as hitters go, I think we’re looking at almost the entire 2008 starting lineup right now. What does that mean for guys like Cabrera, Jones, Clement, Tui and others?
Things change, especially in a year and a half. Cross that bridge when you come to it. There’s nothing wrong with depth.
Why did Jake Woods drop off the list? Is it MLB service time? Or age?
Because he’s not very good.
Casey Craig: has the best bat on a very disappointing Wisconsin team, but still has plenty of attitude problems. Is there anything he can do to play his way back into the org’s good graces, or are they pretty much fed up with him?
If they ever start a league for most-hated-players-by-an-organization, Craig will go in the hall of fame.
Why did Hunter Brown drop off the list?
He’s officially been classified as a AAAA guy. He’s probably never going to get a shot.
Dave, barring an unforeseen breakthrough by someone in the second half, Livingston and Cruceta are apparently the top internal candidates to take the Pineiro and Meche rotation spots next year. Do you scramble to find two new starters by trade or free agency, or do you trust that at least one of the two can adequately fill one spot for the league minimum?
I’d go get myself two new starters.
What happened to Sebastien Boucher? He seemed like he had some upside.
He lacks power, so hitters are throwing him fastballs he can’t get around on.
Why no Blackley?
He’s on the list.
Heh. My bad on missing Blackley.
When I was down in AZ checking out minor-league camp, the first time I saw Craig, he walked up to Michael Saunders in the middle of a bunting drill and said “you’re wasting your time. Your bunting skills are as bad as all your other baseball skills. Let me show you how it’s done.”
Saunders, by the way, says “I’m sorry” every time anyone says anything to him during drills and seems like an incredibly humble (almost too humble) and genuinely nice guy. The contrast couldn’t have been more stark.
so what is Craig’s problem? Short-Man-Syndrome? Having a dad in the system? Just general cussedness?
You know that caricature of the pompous high school jock who shoves kids in lockers, throws cigarettes in peoples food, and is pretty much universally hated by everyone?
Even that guy doesn’t like Casey Craig.
Not that I want to look backward, but what numbers would you have given, Dave to Andrew Miller, assuming the M’s would have been able to sign him. Curious how much lower Morrow ranks on this scale.
Also, we’ve never quite addressed it–should we assume Doyle’s recent dip is just from the flu, and that he should rebound soon. It is a bit troubling that he hasn’t shown his previous power this past month.
Who plays where in the outfield for the Rainiers? Jones is CF, but where do/did they put Choo, Bohn, Doyle & Morse? Looking at Games Played and ABs obviously one of them must be DH most of the time. Also, I notice that Bohn is projected 2006 but he’s really the lowest ranking of any of the OFs in Tacoma. Does this guy really have a future with the Ms (or any other major league organization)?
The standard arrangement is Choo in LF, Bohn in Right. They change that up a bit, though, to give Bohn and Jones time at all 3 positions.
With Bohn hurt, Nelson’s been playing LF and Choo’s in Right.
Morse was playing all over the place when he was down in Tacoma, but mostly alternating between first and third.
Not that I want to look backward, but what numbers would you have given, Dave to Andrew Miller, assuming the M’s would have been able to sign him. Curious how much lower Morrow ranks on this scale.
Probably a 9/7. He’s not Felix, but he’s about as good as any other pitching prospect alive.
Who plays where in the outfield for the Rainiers? Jones is CF, but where do/did they put Choo, Bohn, Doyle & Morse? Looking at Games Played and ABs obviously one of them must be DH most of the time. Also, I notice that Bohn is projected 2006 but he’s really the lowest ranking of any of the OFs in Tacoma. Does this guy really have a future with the Ms (or any other major league organization)?
Bohn’s a fourth outfielder in the majors, capable of hitting .270/.330/.400 and playing solid defense in the outfield. He also is a good baserunner. No chance of being a star, almost no chance of being an everyday player, but could be a useful role player.
Strange Question: A couple of years ago the Mariners had a guy up for a cup of coffee, a first baseman I believe, and he hit for the reverse cycle. He made one out, then hit into a double play, then into a tripple play. That seemed to kill his carreer, or what little carreer he had, and as far as I can find he was never heard from again. Does anyone remember that guy? What ever happened to him?
Wow, Dave. You knew about both Morrow and Tillman back in 2005? Either that, or you need to update your copyright…
Thanks for the great review. It’s refreshing to hear about some positives in the system.
#49. Ron Wright. He’s out of professional baseball.
#49– Ron Wright “Ron Wright makes his ML debut in the game, going 0–for–3 and accounting for six outs on a strikeout, double play, and triple play. He becomes the 2nd player since 1950 to hit into a TP in his debut (Leo Foster did it for Atlanta in 1971) when Kenny Rogers fields his comebacker in the 4th. It is Wright’s only appearance this year.”
Wright, now 30, is a product of Kamiakin High in Kennewick. He last played for the independent Northn League’s Sioux Falls Canaries in 2004.
God I always felt sorry for that guy. He was really respectful of the chance he got and was a good sport about his horrible fucking luck. At least he gets some of the fat MLB retirment stuff, right?
Um, no. He does get other lovely parting gifts, such a line in the Macmillan Encyclopedia, a punchline to jokes made by M’s fans, and a year’s supply of Rice-A-Roni, the San Francisco Treat.
No Sean Green on the list? Is he too old or just not good enough in your eyes?
Green’s the definition of a replacement level reliever. His groundball rate makes up for his other deficincies, such as lack of any kind of second or third pitch and poor command, but he just doesn’t have enough going for him to be anything more than a 5th or 6th guy in the pen. Which is fine, but there are about 100 guys of that quality floating around the minors.
#57: What distinguishes Atchison from Green enough to warrant a place on the list?
#53– he was a coach at Dixie State College a year or so back…
#57: What distinguishes Atchison from Green enough to warrant a place on the list?
The ability to miss bats and occassionally throw strikes.
Dave,
In your view will Adam Jones overtake Reed in center by late 2007ish? If so, what do you see happening to Reed? I can’t imagine an outfield of Reed/Jones/Ichiro would be powerful enough to create a league-average offense. Do you Reed will be gone by then?
Should be “[d]o you think Reed will be gone by then”?
I wonder if Jones will come along that quickly. He’s not making a smooth adjustment to Triple-A, despite some fine moments as he goes.
In your view will Adam Jones overtake Reed in center by late 2007ish? If so, what do you see happening to Reed? I can’t imagine an outfield of Reed/Jones/Ichiro would be powerful enough to create a league-average offense. Do you Reed will be gone by then?
Jones probably won’t be ready to succeed in the majors until 2008. Depending on how he progresses, he might not be useless next year, but odds are against him taking another big leap forward and hitting his way into a promotion. He’s got some big strides to make offensively. He’s young, so there’s plenty of time for him, but we shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking that he’s going to be forcing his way into the line-up anytime soon. I’ve actually thought about dropping him out of the “close to majors” group because I’m not sure he is close to the majors, but there isn’t another group that really captures his talent level, so he stayed there.
When Jones is ready, the M’s can figure out what to do with Reed. He might play himself off the roster by then. He might turn a corner and make himself a valuable part of the team. The team has plenty of time to let the situation play itself out.
Dave, thanks as always for this list. I have to point out that George Sherrill’s birthday is incorrect. It should be 4/19/77; oh how I wish he were only 23, the same age as Blackley.
Two questions on the group that’s with the Mariners. What do Lopez and Betancourt have to do to reduce their risk. OK, it’s only a year (is that the issue) but they’re each shown the ability to be productive major league players, unlike Reed or Rivera.
Why is Mike Morse a prospect? Is it because he’s only 24 and in AAAA and might develop? Except for 2004 at AA, which looks like a fluke, he’s been a .700 OPS guy which doesn’t seem to have value as an outfielder. His upside seems to be Willie Bloomquist with a little more pop, less speed and no ability to play up the middle.
True or false: Stephen Kahn and Justin Thomas will be significant contributors to the M’s pen in 2008.
If Reed does turn a corner and become an adequate hitter by 2008, he’ll be a pretty valuable commodity. Competent CF who can hit are pretty rare (though the teams that have them always seem to have extra – the 2003 Mariners, the 2006 Jays…).
…but there isn’t another group that really captures his talent level, so he stayed there.
Hey — if they can invent a whole list of categories for Chuck Norris, it’s your system, you can create one for the Adam Joneses of the world.
Two questions on the group that’s with the Mariners. What do Lopez and Betancourt have to do to reduce their risk. OK, it’s only a year (is that the issue) but they’re each shown the ability to be productive major league players, unlike Reed or Rivera.
Walk more. It might sound like the statnerd cliche, but guys with abysmal plate discipline who don’t make adjustments wash out. The book gets out on them, and they regress as players. Cristian Guzman is the quintessential example of a guy who had basically the same skillset as Betancourt, but got worse as he aged due to terrible strike zone judgment.
Why is Mike Morse a prospect? Is it because he’s only 24 and in AAAA and might develop? Except for 2004 at AA, which looks like a fluke, he’s been a .700 OPS guy which doesn’t seem to have value as an outfielder. His upside seems to be Willie Bloomquist with a little more pop, less speed and no ability to play up the middle.
This is a case where the scouting part plays a role. I like Morse’s swing – always have. I think there’s some untapped offensive potential there. Not sure that he’ll ever reach it, but he might. And in this organization, that’s good enough to squeeze into the Future Forty.
True or false: Stephen Kahn and Justin Thomas will be significant contributors to the M’s pen in 2008.
Kahn could be a contributor to the 2007 pen if he learns how to throw strikes. If he doesn’t, he won’t ever contribute. Command is his thing – if the lightbulb clicks, they’ve got something. Thomas, who knows. I just hope he keeps pitching well for now.
Well, this had been one of the most interesting threads to date. As a first time commenter, I also like some of the “hard” answers you provided, Dave. Surely beats the pants off which fast food restaurant is better when visiting Boise or Spokane.. Thanks for the thoughtful insight.
#70: That’s because David J. Corcoran doesn’t project well as a prospect.
One scouting report: “While Corcoran has a rubber hand that can type into deep post counts and can often pitch prose on back-to-back threads, he’s still struggling like many posters his age to find the rhetorical strike zone. His observational fastball is rated average ast best, but analysts find him intriguing for his ability to throw out perspective change-ups at a variety of speeds and slots.
“Despite persistent questions about his makeup and mechanics, Corcoran may have a solid future as an organizational soldier who can fill in occasionally on low-count thread-starts and give other regulars a rest. He’s also considered a mildly likeable asset in the cyber-clubhouse.”
#71- Classic!
Fill in the blanks:
Brandon Morrow will be substantially (better/worse) than Brad Lincoln over his career.
Brandon Morrow will develop into a number (1/2/3/4/5) starter in the big leagues with a career value comparable to (_________).
Dave said:
I think the team can win in the near future if they build the roster correctly.
I believe this statement really defines the issue. No matter how we judge the current farm system, winning at the major league level will depend on roster construction. I might also add that all the AAAA, 4th outfielder, utility types in the organization can be useful down the road when assembling final puzzle pieces into the picture. You only need 1 of these type of guys to develop just beyond his potential to have a useful piece that tips the franchise toward playoff contender. I’m thinking of talents like Emil Brown or Marcus Thames who developed late but hung around in organizations long enough to become key cogs on an MLB roster in their late 20′s. Thames, particularly, a refugee from the Yankees and Rangers orgs, is helping Detroit win more games this year.
A bit off-topic, apologies, but [deleted, off-topic]
There aren’t any slam dunks here. It’s part of the M’s high-risk, high-reward philosophy.
Let me back up here and ask, how viable is this philosophy? I think I realize that no major league organization weights its farm system entirely one way, but what’s a good mix? (Or what are the tradeoffs between the various philosophies? Do you mix in a few low risk, medium reward folks in (which would be the AAAA players, right?))
Dave, thanks for posting the future forty and answering our questions.
1. Do you have any insight into why the M’s took Ricky Orta in the fourth round? He seems to be an interesting selection since I can find no statistical evidence for why he would be selected so high.
2. What happened to Louis Valbuena? I thought he looked like one of the more interesting prospect on last year’s Everett team.
Jim Thomsen, I’d be careful if I were you. With your versatility in covering so many different styles, you’re liable to get pigeonholed as the Willie Bloomquist of commenters. Of course, you’re much more likely to hit a home run with your comments than he is, so maybe somebody like Tony Phillips would be a better comparison.
[sorry, responses to off-topic comments are off-topic]
I understand that (I really don’t think he’s very good either).
I was just hoping to get some insight into your thought process.
1) He was on your last list. (So he used to be “good”)
2) You said it was harder this time than last to create the list. (So there was a lower threshold to make this list)
3) He’s been promoted since your last list. (So, he’s performing against better competition with actually potential for “reward”)
I understand this is a non-scientific list that you’re providing for my convenience, at no cost to me, so I really, really appreciate it. Thank you! Just was curious about the thinking behind Woods.
Justin Thomas, who many of us shook our heads at last year when the M’s popped him in the second round
I just had to point out the Thomas was a fourth rounder (our second pick).
Brandon Morrow will be substantially (better/worse) than Brad Lincoln over his career.
No one knows. Seriously. It’s a coin-toss.
Brandon Morrow will develop into a number (1/2/3/4/5) starter in the big leagues with a career value comparable to (_________).
#3 starter, Jose Contreras. But he could easily be Jesse Foppert too.
Let me back up here and ask, how viable is this philosophy?
I don’t think its optimal, but its definitely viable, especially for a market like Seattle that can absorb large financial commitments. I prefer it to the “all college players” philosophy that so many statistical analysts have fallen in love with.
1. Do you have any insight into why the M’s took Ricky Orta in the fourth round? He seems to be an interesting selection since I can find no statistical evidence for why he would be selected so high.
They like his arm. That’s all I got.
2. What happened to Louis Valbuena? I thought he looked like one of the more interesting prospect on last year’s Everett team.
He’s doing okay in Wisconsin. My opinion of him hasn’t changed much – okay bat, iffy glove, mediocre prospect.
Just was curious about the thinking behind Woods.
I’ve seen Woods pitch enough this year to realize that my little bit of optimism was probably ill founded. There’s not much there to like.
Oh Mr Thomsen–A god
Churchill basically already answered this question a few days ago, but I’d like your take. As you know Mike Wilson is tearing up Inland. JAC’s take is that he’s way old for the league so it means nothing. But the guy is showing good power and good plate discipline, it’s hard me to write that off. I mean all you can do is dominate the level that you’re at.
Thanks for answering my question, dick.