Abandoning the catch-up
Moving from Gil “This turnaround is totally not like previous turnarounds” Meche for a minute –
The M’s are 4 and 1/2 games behind the Rangers and the Athletics, who are both 38-32. In terms of runs scored/allowed, the A’s aren’t much better than the M’s, and you’d expect the M’s to be at .500, but the games have been recorded, and that’s where the team is.
So is it possible for the M’s to win the AL West or the wildcard? Should they be holding out hope?
Or, alternately, how is this possibility any better than the previous times this “we’re still in it” horse has been trotted out for us?
It’s not. The M’s chances of getting to the playoffs are exceptionally slim on the face. With 91 games left, they have to make up a game every couple of weeks all season long. It can be done, certainly, but if 90 wins will take the AL West, the M’s need 56 more wins in 91 games — that’s over .600 ball for the rest of the year.
Does this really look like a club that can run that hard for that long? Aggressive baserunning doesn’t build that much endurance.
It would be different if you could look at the team and see a lot of players dramatically underperforming while no one played over their heads. But that’s not what we have at all — well, Ichiro’s over his head, and Lopez has been better than even his supporters (hi! it’s me!) thought he would do this year.
But the underperformers — Kenji’s really fallen down, I see him picking it up a little. Reed we’ve discussed, but until he starts hitting, whatever. Everett’s performance has fallen off dramatically, and at the bottom we’ve got Beltre, who I wish would at least have the courtesy to knock me out before his at-bats, except that he’d probably only swing and miss and break my monitor or something.
Sexson’s a huge problem, though — if Sexson was putting up last year’s numbers, or anything close to them, at this point the team would probably be fighting it out for the division lead.
Really. Sexson’s hitting .205/.283/.382. Having him hit well would probably be worth two games in the standings, maybe more, and then they’re over .500. Of course, we could also say “this aggressive baserunning thing’s cost us at least two games” but manager underperformance is out of scope.
So I don’t think as a unit they’re underperforming significantly, but there’s obviously room where things could turn around.
On the pitching side, it’s the same thing. Meche has been good while Pineiro’s been bad, which is a weird inversion of their usual relative positions, but Washburn’s been the ill purchase we feared. The big underperformer’s obviously Felix.
Take all of that and roll it up: Sexson suddenly starts to hit and Felix starts to pitch. That’s still not a .600 team. Sexson and Johjima start to hit, maybe Reed or someone else warms a little, and we get Felix on a roll, while all the while no one cools off… it could happen. I’d love to see it happen.
What are the chances, though? What are the chances that all of the good things are going to happen but there won’t be any injuries or bad streaks or whatever else might afflict the team? 0%? 1%?
This is not the voice of negativity — if the team continues like this, the season will be a great step forward, with the emergence of some key young players the team can build around, and an end to the endless, abject losing. I just don’t see looking towards the playoffs as realistic, and if that belief prevents the team from (say) punting Guardado for a live arm, or otherwise making moves that’ll help them pursue a pennant in 2007+, it’s harmful.
Punt Eddie. I used to be a supporter, but he’s finished. With his salary, though, who’d want him? Hey, I know, the Yankees!
And speaking of young players we can build around, thank goodness for YuBet… at last, we have an everyday shortstop who can field *and* hit.
Now if only Reed would hit, we could punt Willie as well. Free Willie! (Please!)
The time to acquire something of value for Guardado has come and gone. Bavasi should’ve taken whatever he was offered last year and run with it. It’s fairly amazing to me that most M’s fans from this site and others thought it folly to keep him but our GM somehow dropped the ball. That was probably the one of the easiest decisions he could’ve ever made, and he somehow blew it. Always deal the player one year too soon than one year too late, y’know?
I hope the A’s go on a super streak soon, and blow us out of any hope of contention. Then we can sell yet again and hopefully find a useful player or two for next year for Meche, Pineiro, Everett, etc. I’d be really surprised if we could get anything for Guardado, though.
Speaking of harmful, the M’s have been refusing to face reality for quite a while. Signing C-Rex and Washburn were awful (and not suprisingly). Not moving Grover out is going to continue to be harmful.
I’m glad they took Eddie’s option but there’s no doubt he should be moved if at all possible. The newspapers suggest the recent surge in the team will complicate matters in deciding if the M’s are buyers or sellers but there should be no question that the team continues to need to rebuild (especially now because key players like Yu-Bet and Lopez will need to be part of a better team next year than they have this year.
It would be nice if we had a better farm system than “below average”. Man, that Gillick hangover still aches and aches.
When’s the last time the M’s made a good in-season move?
I can only think of Moyer, and that was quite some time ago.
Thank you Darren Bragg.
Bring in a manager with a brain instead of the scratched big band era record they have now, as well as Sexton showing up and Beltre continuing to hit, I’d give us a 40%+ chance. With Grover and the aforesaid, ZERO.
Warning! Author Disagreement Ahead!
I’m not sure there’s a team in the AL with more “Go On An Out Of Nowhere Run” potential.
Ichiro is hitting .365/.413/.464. That’s pretty much exactly what he did in 2004, and just a bit above his career numbers. He’s about as inconsistent a star as there is in baseball, so sure, he might hit .280/.350/.400 the rest of the way, but I’d put the chances of him hitting .400/.450/.500 about equal with that.
Lopez is over his head? Really? We had him pegged for a .270/.330/.430 line before the season started. He’s hitting .278/.317/.470. If the homers turn back into doubles and he ends up close to what we thought he would be (assuming that we were right and we didn’t understimate him, which is a weird assumption, but work with me here), that would cost us about 3-4 runs over the course of the year. Whoop de doo.
And, that’s about it. Meche is probably not likely to pitch quite this well all year, but he’s not pitching THAT well, so again, the retreat isn’t likely to be a huge one. With three guys who are probably, at worst, overachieving by 10 percent or so, I don’t see a team ready for a fall.
But, man, the underachievers. Beltre is still way off even where he was last year. Sexson, you covered. Even Reed’s detractors don’t think he’s a .225 hitter.
But the key to all this is Felix. His peripheral stats have him as the equal of guys like Halladay, Bonderman, and Kazmir. His ERA has him as the equal of Koronka and Elarton. There’s not a pitcher in baseball with a better chance to post a huge second half improvement. And by huge, I’m talking Cy Young kind of run. Johan Santana, the past two seasons, has entered the all-star break with an ERA near 4.00, and run off 1.50 ERA stretches to end the year. That’s the kind of thing Felix has in him.
And if Felix is dominating every night he takes the hill, even if no one starts to hit better, this is a .550 club, just because he’s going to be a win every single start. Toss in Richie hitting at all, and wham, this is a .570-.580 club without much hesitation.
Call me overly optimistic, but if you said the problems going into the second half keeping the team from contending were Felix and Sexson, we’d have all been doing cartwheels. The M’s are in great shape.
Hey, if there are meaningful games in September and the team is over .500, I’ll call this year a success.
Oh and don’t forget that the King’s BABIP is still insanely high. There’s plenty of room for free improvement there.
Felix is indeed a crucial component in determining how far the M’s go this year but if he is capped at 200 innings this year I don’t see how the M’s can stay in the race as it would seem that he’d reach that limit in August or early September.
I find this post defeatist and depressing.
It’s June and the M’s are playing well and dammit I’m not ready to wait until next year! They’re within spitting distance of first in a weak division. Are they as good as Texas or Oakland? Probably not, but neither of those teams looks particularly strong, Oakland’s recent run notwithstanding. Seattle’s got a decent chance of winning a weak division, and I’m not giving up yet.
Do you really think it will take 90 wins to win the AL west? The As can’t keep playing .900 ball or whatever its been the last few weeks. And the Rangers are still the Rangers, if form holds they are due for soem losign streaks.
Just saw this and was dumbfounded..
Interleague Play ERA Leaders (1997-2005)
1. Pineiro, Joel 2.18
2. Garcia, Freddy 2.38
3. Johnson, Randy 2.53
4. Moyer, Jamie 2.63
5. Santana, Johan 2.67
What if we were in the NL?
^
Minimum 100 innings.
Dave… I actually agree with you. That was going to be my response to DMZ. It’s also why I don’t want to wave a flag on the 19th.
Basically, IF the M’s win out, it’s going to be like that…and in a year where maybe everyone beats up on each other and maybe 88 wins wins the AL West.
I’m not sure it’s GOING to happen… but I’d like a month to see if it might start to happen before I start playing the “let’s see which veteran about to be a free agent we can dump for second-tier prospects” game.
I am more optimistic along Dave’s line, and perhaps not as ready as Derek to concede that we won’t contend. Reading a bit into Dave’s comment, I am perhaps more willing than he is to do something at the trade deadline. I have no qualms about changing out Carl Everett (even if he doesn’t go anywhere) for a proven (and performing) bat from a bottom-dweller.
The bullpen is solid, so if you are going to tinker it should be the starting rotation or the position players. I’ll get to the rotation in a second.
Position player-wise, I don’t know if we have any in-house fixes (Doyle aside
). Looking around the infield, I like what I see defensively, and don’t think there is much we can do at the corners given contract sizes and performance levels (Beltre’s defense is a plus too). CF remains an option, but I don’t know if we are emotionally ready to do anything with Reed and his nice price tag (especially when this is not a World Series team!).
What about moving Raul into the DH spot (despite his protests) and picking up a nice LF somewhere? It can’t hurt much because we keep Raul’s bat (for what it is worth) upgrade the defense in LF, and improve over Carl. We’d still have the parts to put it back together if the LF turns “Butch.” Thoughts?
I think we can upgrade the rotation now, even if Pineiro becomes an odd man out or gets traded in a package with Eddie. With some extra cash and maybe a prospect we could land someone who is an improvement . . maybe. It’s tough because some days the Mariners win despite starting pitching and other times it is because of it. It’s like some of these guys pass around the “good arm” in the clubhouse, but everybody can’t use it in back to back series (and nobody gets it against the A’s).
[beating the same dead horse] and if Johjima had more rest, he might bring his hitting back up.
“good arm” having nothing to do with good stuff, but merely the ability to put together a good performance.
If we were 4.5 games behind one team, I’d imagine a real shot at sneaking in to the playoffs.
Behind two teams, both of whom are legitimately (in my opinion) better teams than the M’s? It would take a miracle. [Yes, both teams have real problems to go with their assets.]
Between Meche, Pineiro, and Moyer, I would expect at least one to completely blow up in the second half. Though they’re proving themselves better than I suspected quicker than I suspected, Youbet and Lopez feel to me likely to do a bit of consolidating. Felix is fine, though he may not be Johan Santana quite yet.
I like longshots though. If no real potential pieces of the future are offered – let’s face it, A-level prospects aren’t super likely to come back to us for anyone we’d want to trade – the team may as well go for it.
I’m sure that will be Bavasi’s inclination in any case, with not only his future employment but the size of the M’s revenue base for the next couple years in the balance.
Well it depends on if we expect Oakland to make their normal end of the season run. Of course our team has the capability of winnings. Its payroll should prove that. The problem is all the ifs that need to happen for this team to make the playoffs.
I don’t think it will take 90 wins to get the division crown. It will, however, take us winning all the series against our division. If we can’t beat Oakland all this talk about the playoffs is pointless.
Is Carl Crawford worth anything? I saw his name in the trade rumor mill the other day. If he is worth anything could we get him?
I’m still in the move Meche position, but perhaps I should qualify it. IF we can get SOMETHING back for Meche, we should move him soon. I think that a ML ready pitcher would be a nice addition, obviously not a top prospect. I don’t have any names, but I would assume that a GM and staff would have (or be able to compile) a list of 15-25 names of solid prospects who appear ready to contribute at the ML level. Somebody sitting in a ML bullpen who can be transitioned to a starter (ala Liriano) would be in that group.
Right now the team is playing much better, but it isn’t like they have been beating up on the Yankees, Red or White Sox, the Tigers or Oakland. Good performances vs. mediocre to bad teams isn’t going to take the M’s to the playoffs. It wasn’t a month ago that I would have applauded a move like cutting Everett, DHing Ibanez, and bringing up Jones would have made me happy. And that is a despiration move.
and speaking of Adrian and what has happened (or not happened) with him, multitudes talk about Beltre today as the team goes into Dodger Stadium — Andriesen, Larue, Shaiken, Bonsignore and on the cover of USA Today, Ortiz
The subject certainly spurs Andriesen on to Kelleyesque heights: “Adrian Beltre returns to Dodger Stadium today, a man trapped in a loveless marriage visiting an old flame.”
Carl Crawford is worth a lot. More than we could really afford (not money-wise, but talent-wise). He’s young, still relatively cheap, and he’s got good speed, some pop, and he’s no slouch in the field. No way we land him. Rumors out of LAA are that it is going to take Ervin Santana, if not Santana plus Figgins to get him.
I’m not ready to give up on the season. I’m of the opinion that 85 wins has a good chance of being in contention right to the last week of the season, and the M’s have a coinflip chance of hitting that mark. However, I’m not ready to make any deadline trades that may improve our chances this year but not help us going forward. Realistically, even if we were to make the playoffs we’d probably have a quick first round exit to a superior team. I’m not willing to give up much just for that.
I think as the team stands now, it has a good chance of contending in ’07 and going forward. If someone like the Mets offers us parts that would be useful for next year for Meche or Pinero, I do it in a heartbeat even if that means 2 or 3 fewer wins this year. I’m ready to jettison Mateo or Guardado to the first team who offers anything. I’m also willing to let Everrett go and replace him with Snelling as soon as he’s healthy enough. Even if those moves lose us a few games this year, I think they will help us for next year.
So, from the SF press over the weekend, the rumors are that they’re maybe after Sexson (from the SF Chronicle):
If they’re serious, we may be able to get something decent in return, while unloading the back end of his contract, replacing him in the short term with Petagine and shopping around for a longer term option (or the power LF mentiond above, moving Ibanez to DH).
As long as NL teams think that all Sexson and/or Beltre need is a return to the safe confines of the NL to bounce back, why not take advantage?
I don’t really see the M’s being a buyer or a seller this season. They don’t have available proven veterans to trade for prospects, and they don’t have any available prospects to trade for proven veterans. They are kinda sitting on the fence. I don’t see any of the starting 8 position players really available, unless you go into a true fire sale mode and trade Raul or Ichiro….Which is never going to happen.
I think after what happened in 04′ Bavasi would be a little gun shy to trade anyone in the starting rotation. There really isn’t anyone on the 40-man roster in Tacoma to step up at this point.
I think what will end up happening is some minor moves like Mateo going for a low level B prospect, maybe a big market team eating Eddie’s contract to fill a LOOGIE role, and possibly Everett being DFA’d to make room for Doyle in late July or August if he continues to suck it up in you DESIGNATED HITTER role (I can’t think of a single team who would trade even a bucket of balls for a DH that doesn’t hit?)
One thing that i see that may happen is if Meche continues to pitch at league average levels and NY and Bos continue to need starters Bavasi could get a bidding war for his services. Wouldn’t that be great!
I wouldn’t give that story any credibility.
particularly since it is speculation on the writer’s part
Hey the M’s have made an art out of chasing players who had one good game/series against us, despite otherwise sucking…
Sure would be nice if there were some validity to that story. It sure looks lik Sexson has fallen off the proverbial cliff.
Even if he has a career-level (at or above .270) second half of the season he will still come out somewhere pretty bad.
I’m with Dave and EC. I realize that Oakland has been a team that has gone on insane second half runs the last few years, but there’s really no reason to suspect this team is any better than a .543 team the rest of the way. Maybe they get to that by being more consistent (i.e., not losing 10 out of 14 in one stretch or 10 of 11 in another, and then winning 10 in a row later), but nothing screams at me that Oakland is going to be any better over the next 92 games than they were over the first 70; for wahtever else Oakland has shown us, they are certainly capable of also going on a long LOSING streak. .543 means they finish with 88 wins.
Ditto for the Angels and Rangers. Actually, they might both be a tad worse the rest of the way.
So, the bar may only be at 88, not 90+. The Mariners are 11-5 in June, despite some wild inconsistency. They also had a 10-of-17 streak in May that also encompassed bad streaks (read: first Oakland series).
4.5 games is nothing. All the M’s have to do is play slightly more consistently, and get a break here and there (starting by playing better than .350 ball in 1-run games), and they can make that up. All they have to do is keep pace, and avoid getting swept by Oakland in the six remaining games they have with them. Let’s say they manage to take 4 of those 6. 2.5 games? Very doable.
Sure, the Mariners could win the division, but is it likely?
No. It’s really quite unlikely. And I’d rather have a good shot at it next year than an outside shot at it both years.
I’m still in the move Meche position, but perhaps I should qualify it. IF we can get SOMETHING back for Meche, we should move him soon. I think that a ML ready pitcher would be a nice addition, obviously not a top prospect. I don’t have any names, but I would assume that a GM and staff would have (or be able to compile) a list of 15-25 names of solid prospects who appear ready to contribute at the ML level. Somebody sitting in a ML bullpen who can be transitioned to a starter (ala Liriano) would be in that group.
So if you were a MLB team with said player, why wouldn’t you use that player in your rotation instead of trading for Gil “I’m a free agent in November” Meche?
Gil’s a rent-a-player by himself. If we start trading the rent-a-players (Meche, Piñeiro, Everett, Guardado), you’re not going to get anyone useful for 2006, just like we didn’t for 2004 (Garcia), or 2005 (Winn and Villone). We didn’t even get a useful player for that year when we traded the Big Unit, for Pete’ sake.
That being said, if you were willing to market other players like Adam Jones, and so on, I imagine you could do a deal where we had something useful for this year (ala the Lilly deal Beane made a few years ago). However, Bavasi would not be playing to type making that kind of a deal. (I would be thrilled if he did, though- we need some creative ways to address the lack of pitching in the organization that don’t involve signing overpriced free agents, or waiting for Brandon Morrow to dominate spring training in 2009.)
Safeco Hobo, if Gil continues to pitch at league average levels, odds are we’re in the race, as Washburn and Moyer would supplement that and Felix is likely due for a tear. Thus we’d be in a Sophie’s Choice dilemma: kill off any playoff hopes by imploding the rotation, or hope against hope Meche doesn’t regress to the mean?
#18 bookbook said:
>If we were 4.5 games behind one team, I’d imagine a real shot at sneaking in to the playoffs.
>Behind two teams, both of whom are legitimately (in my opinion) better teams than the M’s? It would take a miracle. [Yes, both teams have real problems to go with their assets.]
>Between Meche, Pineiro, and Moyer, I would expect at least one to completely blow up in the second half. Though they’re proving themselves better than I suspected quicker than I suspected, Youbet and Lopez feel to me likely to do a bit of consolidating. Felix is fine, though he may not be Johan Santana quite yet.
*** I think this is the best evaluation. Sure there are some Mariners (Felix, Sexson, Beltre) who could start performing better. But there are others, the ones above, who can be expected to start performing worse. Plus the fact that the Ms have to catch two teams, not just one.
>I like longshots though. If no real potential pieces of the future are offered – let’s face it, A-level prospects aren’t super likely to come back to us for anyone we’d want to trade – the team may as well go for it.
*** As others have mentioned, not making a trade may be the Ms best strategy. Sure, ride these guys to the end of the season and see what happens. The Ms aren’t likely to be able to pick up any truly valuable prospects with the old/mediocre/expensive vets they’d be willing to offer, nor to pick up a truly valuable veteran.
Are authors allowed to disagree? I thought there was USSM groupthink and dissent was impossible.
I wouldn’t argue that putting it as “The problems are Sexson and Felix” doesn’t make me want to agree. But it’s also “The team’s had no significant injuries and Gil Meche is the 2nd best starter”.
And I’d rather have a good shot at it next year than an outside shot at it both years.
You’re assuming, of course, that the Mariner response to cratering attendance in September 2006 plus another losing year isn’t going to be “Hey, we’re having a fire sale! Maybe Cleveland has it right after all!” and slashing payroll, or that Ichiro doesn’t politely tell the organization that he’s disinclined to stay out of the free agent market in 2007 because he’s tired of playing on losing ballclubs.
Oh yeah, then there’s the fact that Bavasi could lose his job if his key accomplishments during his tenure are “three worst consecutive seasons in the sad history of the Mariners for 25 years” (note that before now, the M’s had never had consecutive 90 loss seasons since the 1970′s expansion era teams, even though they had the worst record in baseball for the entire DECADE of the 1980s) and “attendance down a third from peak in 2002″- which means organizational turmoil, as it’s job search time for another GM.
The fact is that blowing off seasons like the Royals or Orioles do every year has consequences… and I’d point out that Hargrove had several Orioles teams sleepwalk through a September/October (2001: 8-19; 2002: 4-24; 2003: 10-16). I think blowing it up so we can get this year’s B-level Prospect Bonanza is not as risk free as it could be- circumstances might change between now and July 31 to make it the most realistic option, but I sure wouldn’t be rooting for it.
I was not suggesting that it is LIKELY the M’s win the division, just that it is not as dire as DMZ is making it out to be. Yes, we are behind two teams, but (as many have acknowledged) both of those teams have serious issues – as serious as the M’s, frankly.
I’m also not saying the M’s should punt the chance to win next year for what may or may not be a pipe-dream run this year. I certainly wouldn’t pull the trigger on any deal (except one involving Eddie or Everett, which I’d take today if one was offered) until the deadline. Give this team a chance to get back in it. So far, they’ve disappointed, but there are signs of improvement, and nobody else looks like a runaway.
EC – If I were a GM, I wouldn’t make a trade for Meche, but sometimes GMs make strange acquisitions. There are teams out there with solid post-season hopes, and questions in the rotation. Didn’t the Mets have some injury issues earlier in the year? Look for teams that have a Soriano type pitcher in the bullpen, or something like that. I’m not advocating a Meche for Tomko type trade, and I don’t have any particular names floating in my head, but I tend to agree that Meche isn’t the long-term option for the team.
You are right that the M’s don’t have a good track record in mid-season trades lately. But I’ve suffered through the Argyos years, and this hasn’t reached that point. Yet.
Like I said, so why doesn’t that team start their Soriano-type P instead of trading for a free-agent to be?
If someone came to you offering Gil Meche for Soriano, you’d laugh. So would most GMs, I think. We might well get this year’s Foppert or Bazardo, but someone we can plug into the rotation immediately after the trade? Not likely, unless the deal’s more complicated than that (like a salary dump of a multi-year contract where we get them to take Meche so the salaries balance out THIS year).
I think the analysis is wrong. The M’s are 4, 5 games back, and not demonstrably worse than the teams ahead of them. If you’re telling me that 5 games from July 1 is too big a gap to bridge, that’s plain incorrect – it happens frequently… especially when all the teams are this mediocre.
My analysis is yes, the M’s are still in it. they’ve been “unlucky” by two games while they are at it. I suspect the team has underperformed their PECOTA predictions. It’s a million miles from a lock that the M’s will take the division lead at some point, but it’s not at all improbable.
The one big argument I have with the numbers here is that both teams ahead of the M’s are also very poor. Oakland has put in a burst, but they’re little better than a 500 team. An injury here and a drop in performance there, and the AL West could easily be won by a mediocre team (well, that’s a given) with a record of 84-78.
It’s not that the M’s are so competitive that they shouldn’t give up, it’s that the others are so crap.
on trades that were never made– Larry Stone has a nice interview with Ryan Anderson, where it appears the kid has finally grown up:
“But then came July, and the ailing shoulder, followed by surgeries in 2001 and 2002 and 2003, and the endless rehabs and constant disappointment. The word in the Mariners organization was that, at least initially, Anderson didn’t work hard enough on his recovery.
“My first year, yes, I was very lazy,” he acknowledged. “I took things for granted. Everything I did in sports, academically, I was always in the top of my class. After surgery, I’m like, ‘It’s going to come back. I’ll just do the bare minimum.’ Because that’s what I’ve always done, and I’ve never had to try hard. I wish I could take that year back, let me say that.”
I think barring a siginificant collapse or ridiculous winning streak this will be a “stand pat” year. I don’t believe there’s any justification for trading away a prospect from the system that just now seems to be recovering a little for a longshot run and I don’t think ownership will want to piss off Joe KJR-Listener-Casual-Fan by trading away “Great Clubhouse Guy” Eddie or “Left Handed Sock” Carl or any other “proven” veteran.
I’m mildly optimistic that the M’s could pull something out of the hat, but they might as well do it with the roster as it sits now and look forward to a serious run next year.
By the way: with this viscous author disagreement, who would win in a fight – Dave or DMZ? Perhaps this could be one of the events at the next feed?
The M’s have a really interesting schedule this September that could come into play if they’re still in it.
Believe it or not the M’s play Texas nine times in September, including two separate weekend series at home. They only play Oakland three times (all at home) and they’re finished with the Angels before September starts.
I’m not sure that the Mariners (or any other team) has had nearly 1/3 of their games for a month be against the same team (the M’s play 28 games in September), at least since expansion. It’s the first time in at least the last eleven years that the Mariners have played the same team two home series in the same calendar month (on the heels of playing two road series in Minnesota in May). MLB has changed the people who make the schedule a two years in a row and they might just make it three…
If we pulled John Olerud out of retirement, he could promptly improve 1st base.
Just a thought.
44. Jon. I’m pretty sure the Rangers will also be playing nearly 1/3 of their September games against the same team.
Sounds like a good deal for Oakland.
Who’s likely to get better in the second half?
Johjima: Who knows?
Sexson: Who knows?
Lopez: Who knows?
Beltre: We hope and hope, but who knows?
Reed: I believe in him, but who knows?
Moyer: It doesn’t seem likely, but who knows?
Meche: It seems VERY unlikely.
Guardado: I actually think he will get better.
Everett: It doesn’t seem likely.
Washburn: There’s no reason to think he’ll be anything other than what he is.
Pineiro: I think he’ll get a little better, but will that help?
I’m all for being optimistic, but I think we’re putting a lot of faith out there in things we can’t possibly know or credibly project if we think the M’s can be a contender this year.
viscous author
eugh. that’s an image I don’t need.
These are the keys to the decision in my opinion:
1) Mariner ownership has gone three years without anything close to a playoff run. With declining attendance I think they will do what they can to make a run if for no other reason than out of desperation.
2) This is shaping up to be a seller’s market. There are only a handful of teams NOT in contention this year. In the NL there are only five teams more than 4 games out. There will be a lot of teams looking for help in July and not so many offering.
It’s possible that some pitching will be available (perhaps Smoltz, Maddux, and/or Kris Benson), but the price will be high even for these guys.
You left someone out, Jim. Hint: he’s royalty.
And yeah, part of the problem is you have a handful of really awful teams (KC, PIT, TAM, CHC), and everyone else is vearing shades of mediocre to good. It’s hard for me to see that there’s a dominant team in MLB this year when the two best teams in baseball so far, Detroit and the Mets, have spent the last few years being doormats (though I think at the end of the year St. Louis and the White Sox will be the best in their respective leagues).
The Ms don’t have a single player for which another team is going to give them real prospects. If the Ms aren’t going to use salary saved this year to fund next year’s team (a strange policy, but apparently it’s accurate), then there just isn’t any point in trading anyone now. In the past few years of mediocrity, when the team was built on veterans more than on youth, the Ms absolutely should have traded away those veterans when they still had value(Guardado, Sexson, Boone, Ibanez, Meche) but they didn’t. Opportunity blown, but that opportunity just doesn’t exist right now.
#49, Jack Howland wrote:
Two years. The 2003 team won 93 games, and was within 3 games of the division lead as late as September 20. As distasteful as it is to say about a team that hasn’t even gotten to .500 yet, the M’s have been “in contention” most of this year, too.
Rooting for the M’s to collapse or the A’s to go on a super run is ridiculous…and this is coming from a guy who once painted his face black and white to root for a Raider victory over the Seahawks in 1992 so we could get the number 1 draft pick….It would be one thing if we had some attrative 1yr contracts that could be unloaded for solid talent…but that is not the case…and the AL West is quite weak….we are just one Frank Thomas injury from becoming the frontrunners…if Felix gets hot and Sexon does…boom we are an above 500 team…and its not going to take much more than that….once you get into the playoffs anthing can happen…its not like basketball where the 8 seed has no chance anyone can win the world series once they are in….so heres for rooting for some wins and some buying
52 – Two years. The 2003 team won 93 games, and was within 3 games of the division lead as late as September 20. As distasteful as it is to say about a team that hasn’t even gotten to .500 yet, the M’s have been “in contention†most of this year, too.
My mistake. It just seems like 3 years. But I still think that after losing 192 games over the past two seasons they will do what they can in an attempt in what they think will show the fans that they are serious.
I tend to agree with the original post. The way I look at it, there is reason for hope, but not optimism.
And I certainly think that there is not enough to be positive about to make any decisions that put this year ahead of next year, priority-wise. I don’t think you have a garage sale, just to dump…. but if you have an opportunity to make the future brighter instead of maintaining the status quo… do it!
(Also, my girlfriend has a stats homework question that is driving me crazy (because I am completely ignorant)… is there anyone who would be willing to take a look at it for me?)
I don’t think you have a garage sale, just to dump…. but if you have an opportunity to make the future brighter instead of maintaining the status quo… do it!
OK, so the Yankees show up on your doorstep tomorrow, offering their version of Clint Nageotte in AA and their version of Tui in A ball for Meche.
Neither of them will contribute this year…and as Clint has proven, you might not get much from him next year, either. But then again, our ringer for Clint or Tui might come into Spring Training 2007 and take the world by storm… we just don’t know right now.
Do you pull the trigger on the deal today, June 20th? If so, are you ready for over half a season of a clubhouse and fan base that’s been told by management “Sorry, wait until next year”?
Yes. That is preferable to getting the same poor result through denial about the ability to contend. Who’s to say Carl Everett, Gil Meche and Eddie Guardado could outperform a bunch of hungry, moderately talented minor-leaguers? I think we’d be foolish to assert that.
It’s time to stop lying to the fans.
I’m more inclined to agree with Derek on this one. I’d say the M’s should be selling for smart deals and leave playoff contention til 07 or 08. I’d say the M’s are a solid 3rd place team this year, Texas is stronger than years past and Oakland owns Hargrove and the M’s. Restock while you can moving Guardado (for a mid-tier prospect), Everett, Beltre or Sexson. The only request being please get SOMETHING in return.
Though looking at the M’s history of mid-season moves I’m not sure moving anyone is a good idea because we’re bound to get crap in return. Maybe standing pat is a smarter (e.g.: lower risk and lower reward) play.
Guys…..youre all putting the cart before the horse….the M’s are just a few wins away from having their first winning month- in franchise history!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seriously though, NO! Carl Crawford would not be a good addition to this team, first, we already have WFB playing centerfield and second nobody likes a thief so Crawford would screw with team chemistry in a big way (the fact that he steals about 50 bases a season and robs guys of hits speaks volumes toward his character).
#59: Why not go whole hog and buy low on Elijah “I Can’t Get Along With Anybody” Dukes?
My (admittedly largely uneducated) opinion is this:
The Mariners should be buyers, not sellers, at the trading deadline.
This does not mean that I think that the Mariners have a good chance at the playoffs; I don’t think, barring some really nice luck, that they’re going to be able to pass both Oakland /and/ Texas.
But it’s not out of the realm of possibility, either, and I don’t see them getting a good return for the future out of anyone they’d be willing or able to move; whereas with more players moving around at the trade deadline, they might be able to move some players around and get a nice piece or two that will help them contend in 2007, not in 2009.
I think with the right moves, we have a better shot at the playoffs this year, and with further development from the right pieces, we have an excellent shot next year.
So why not take the plunge?
That is preferable to getting the same poor result through denial about the ability to contend.
I don’t think Dave’s in denial. Really. Is he being optimistic? Yeah. But really…this team is lightyears beyond a team with some combination of Rich Aurilia/Mike Morse and Bret Boone up the middle.
And to repeat a point I made yesterday, the team’s actually close to dead on for DMZ’s predictions of 770 runs scored, 750 runs allowed: a little high on both, but the shorthand version of that is “The M’s are a slightly above .500 team”.
It’s time to stop lying to the fans.
Which lie is that? Don’t ascribe to maliciousness what bad luck and incompetence can explain. If the team wanted to BS the fans and make money, they could do what Tampa and KC do- tank the team payroll by having a fire sale and bring in the revenue sharing checks once attendance bottoms out at 1.5 million or so. Heck, that’s basically what Cleveland did.
On June 20th, 2005:
The Houston Astros were 29-39, 15.5 games out of first place (behind 3 other teams), and had a -34 run differential. They went to the World Series.
On June 20th, 2004:
The Braves were 32-36, 4.5 games out of first place (behind 3 other teams), and had a -6 run differential. They won their division and lost to the Astros in five games in the NLDS.
On June 20th, 2003:
The Marlins were 36-39, 13 games out of first place (behind 3 other teams), and had a +4 run differential. They won the World Series.
On June 20th, 2002:
The A’s were 40-31, but were 4 games out of first place (behind 2 other teams), and only had a +1 run differential. They won the division and lost to the Twins in 5 games in the ALDS.
That’s four straight years a team in the same or worse position as the M’s are in now came back, made the playoffs, and in two cases, got to the World Series. One of those teams won it all. I didn’t even include the late season surges of the Oakland teams that fell just a hair short, last year’s Cleveland team, or a few other clubs who had significant improvement after this date and just lost out in a close pennant race.
So, no, its not “rare” at all for these “longshots” to come through. I remember scoffing when the ’03 Marlins added Ugueth Urbina at the deadline, noting that they weren’t real contenders. A few months later, Ugueth Urbina was a World Champion.
We simply can’t know what’s in store. Giving up the ghost, when we’re not dead in the water, is having too much confidence in the accuracy our expectations.
There’s no reason to intentionally make this team worse until they are legitimately in a spot where it is unrealistic to believe that the team could make the playoffs.
I think Hargrove should bat the pitcher 8th and Betancourt 9th. Ichiro is such a good hitter that we don’t want the pitcher batting in front of him. Sexson, Johjima, and Reed have been so awful that we wouldn’t have to worry about the pitcher being put in a better place to kill rallies.
Thoughts?
To be clear — I don’t think they should have a fire sale. That’s never been a requirement for the team to turn things around. My point is that I don’t think the perception that they’re still in the hunt – which I think is unlikely – should prevent potentially making good moves that help the team more in the future.
To be clear  I don’t think they should have a fire sale. That’s never been a requirement for the team to turn things around. My point is that I don’t think the perception that they’re still in the hunt – which I think is unlikely – should prevent potentially making good moves that help the team more in the future.
To be clear, I do think that the perception that they’re still in the hunt should prevent potentially making good moves that help the team more in the future, to an extent.
Obviously, if the Mets offer Lastings Milledge for Gil Meche, I’m going to say yes in every language I can think of.
But like EC has said, I’m not making any Villone for Bazardo and Flannery type moves, which was a good trade, even though Bazardo’s arm looks fried and we’re not likely to get much from that deal.
I think the team has a legitimate chance of making the playoffs. I don’t think that kind of opportunity should be made less likely to acquire a B- pitching prospect.
At this point I don’t see how cutting Everett and Gaurdado could hurt the team. Piniero is a few starts away from being chucked in favor of the AAAA wheel of RL pitchers. I don’t think they’d move Meche right now because there’s no one to take his place, and it would open them up to heavy criticism from the talking heads– that type of risky more of an Oakland thing.
Best case scenario: If/once Felix and Sexson turn it around we could have a shot at 82-83 wins. If Beltre goes nuts (.600+ SLG for the remainder of the season) we could wing a few more and sneak in the back door of the playoffs. Quite unlikely.
Best case scenario: If/once Felix and Sexson turn it around we could have a shot at 82-83 wins. If Beltre goes nuts (.600+ SLG for the remainder of the season) we could wing a few more and sneak in the back door of the playoffs. Quite unlikely.
The team is playing like an 82-83 win team RIGHT NOW. Yes, they’re down a few in the standings, so they’d have to play slightly better (or get a little lucky) to get to that total, but they don’t need to improve to be an 82-83 win team. They need to improve to be a 90 win team. But they don’t need to improve by that much.
If Beltre goes nuts, Felix and Sexson turn it around, and the rest of the team doesn’t recede demonstrably, we’re pretty much better than every team in the American League. (note – I don’t think this is going to happen. I’m just pointing out that JI is vastly underrating the effects that those events would have)
Seriously.
Thanks Dave. Hope rules. The luckiest mediocre team wins the AL West. It might as well be us.
If Beltre goes nuts, Felix and Sexson turn it around, and the rest of the team doesn’t recede demonstrably, we’re pretty much better than every team in the American League.
Seriously.
Who pitches on the four other days? Meche and Moyer can’t keep this up, can they?
If Everett were to be dumped and You Know Who were to hit .300/.370./450 or so, that would be one less move to be made.
re #68
Yikes. I need to edit.
Remember this preseason no one was calling Oakland a mediocre team.
Oakland had a rotten first 1/4 of the season, admittedly. Yet, their recent string of consecutive wins could be seen as them finally playing up to pre-season expectations rather than flukishly streaking over their heads. Harden and Thomas and Bradley getting healthy would up those odds considerably, of course.
It strikes me that there’s a real chance Oakland wins 94.
It’s hard for me to imagine us winning 90, much less 95 with our current pitching staff. (Is there a promising starter in the Mexican league we can snag?)
I think Hargrove should bat the pitcher 8th and Betancourt 9th.
I’m really surprised Tony LaRussa is taking the time to post on here.
There’s no reason to intentionally make this team worse until they are legitimately in a spot where it is unrealistic to believe that the team could make the playoffs.
Exactly. And my guess is in about a month, 10 or so days before the trade deadline, we’ll have a better handle on whether or not that’s really the case- the AL will likely settle out a bit. So there’s just no reason to start blowing unpatchable holes in the rotation by dumping Meche for whatever we can get, etc., until we get there.
And I also agree that the bailout trades we made in 2004 and 2005 were the right things to do at the time, even though they may not have worked out like we wanted. But those teams were dead men walking- this one isn’t. Check back in a month.
My thought is this, and I’d love anyone’s opinion on it. It sure feels like we can’t beat the teams in the AL West. That’s critical. If you look at the standings before today’s games, they pretty much line up…
Oakland 16-9 .640
Texas 12-10 .545
Seattle 10-15 .400
LA/Anahiem 8-12 .400
All I know is this, we hit a bright spot (like 3 of 4 v. KC, 2 of 3 v. Min., & sweeping the Angels) and then we go to Oakland and get trounced. Okay, so the series wasn’t as bad performance-wise as our last trip to Oakland and the A’s are hot right now, but still…
What do you think? Until we can beat Oakland (1 of 10, so far) and Texas (2 of 6, so far), we’re not going to be able to pass them. Just a thought.
A pretty good, if not rehashed, USA Today story about Beltre’s hitting woes:
Comebacks like this happen all the time as mentioned previously….we are right in this thing and have over a month before the trading deadline….talking about folding in the tent right now is bizzarre and weird…why even bother being a fan of the team if your just obsessing about getting some b prospects in return for our avg guys….its not like we have a Zito to unload for some a talent…whose to say they cant be buyers for some guys with another year left on their contract either….improving is all we should be thinking about
As for optimisim:
With the (re)emgergance of Soriano, Putz, Lopez and Betancourt, it seems that the M’s could become a contender if they signed Jason Schmidt, got more consistancy out of Hernandez, and were able to squeeze league average production out of 1st, 3rd, and center.
As we stand now, the best way to ease the uncertainty of those positions would be to acquire an MVP caliber slugger (Giambi, Ortiz, Hafner, A-Rod, Manny etc.), good luck with that.
69
I’m sorry– I mis-read your post the first time. When I wrote of those fantasic turn arounds I was also expecting the latter 4/5ths of the staff to implode. I should have been clearer. As said, I need an editor.
Re trading Meche –
I was shocked to see this while perusing Buster Olney’s chat yesterday on ESPN.com:
J (New York): Which starting pitcher(s) do the Mets have their eye on?
Buster Olney: J: Heard it’ll be somebody good — maybe not at the Zito level, but maybe at the Gil Meche level (he’s been throwing tremendously of late), or Livan Hernandez, who would give the Mets the kind of innings-eater they need in their rotation.
Are people on the east coast far enough away that they see Meche as ‘somebody good’? If the M’s can take advantage of that, go for it now!
Johan Santana, the past two seasons, has entered the all-star break with an ERA near 4.00, and run off 1.50 ERA stretches to end the year. That’s the kind of thing Felix has in him.
One of the things that has seemed to fuel Santana over the second half is a big dip in his HR rate. For ’03-’05, Santana gave up 1.07 HR/9 pre-ASB and 0.76 HR/9 post-ASB, despite being a fly-ball/pop-up type pitcher. His strikeout and walk rates are very similar pre- and post-ASB, with maybe slightly better strikeout rates pre-ASB and slightly better walk rates post-ASB.
I don’t have Santana’s BABIP splits handy, but given very similar strikeout rates, his opponents’ AVG pre-ASB is .222 to a post-ASB AVG of .187, so his second-half surges would also seem to come with a pretty big dip in BABIP.
Felix’s splits so far this season are all worse than pre-ASB Santana, but they’re still pretty good, with the exception of his awful 1.49 HR/9 rate, which is especially obscene for a pitcher with a 55% GB rate. And as mentioned, Felix’s BABIP is a little on the high side.
Basically, the two things that have helped Santana have great second halves–lower HR rate and lower BABIP–look like they could pretty easily break the right way for Felix, lending support to Dave’s contention that Felix could go on a tear in the second half of the season.
Despite the obvious pain of watching Sexson and Beltre underperform. Despite the obvious pain of Everett doing precisely what most here expected, this team has become more watchable and more enjoyable over the last 4 weeks.
There were a few periods early on in which I could have gone to the Littel League fields for the rest of summer for my baseball needs and seen better played ball games.
However in recent weeks, this team has become an outright a blast to watch. Yuni’s streak with the bat is the best gift of the season, who’d have thought that in the spring time? Lopez is everything and more then we hoped for and I don’t see any reason to expect less of him moving forward. Felix will rebound to his norm and he’ll be fun to have around. Ichiro! is all that and more.
My vote would be to jettison Grover to sacrifice someone (mostly just because, partly because just about anybody we face in a playoff situation can out-think him), get Dan Rohn’s feet wet and play the rest of this year like it counts… because it does. If these guys find a way to keep up the type of winning they’ve had over the last 3 weeks, they’ll fill the stands as we head towards deep summer.
Holy crap. The Indians just DFA’d Jason Johnson. Mr. Groundball became Mr. Gopherball.
And new Royals GM Dayton Moore makes a dumb deal, sending young potential-stud lefty starter J.P. Howell to the Devil Rays for Joey “Speed Is My Game” Gathright.
The Indians just DFA’d Jason Johnson. Mr. Groundball became Mr. Gopherball.
I don’t follow. Johnson’s GB% this year so far is 59.5%, according to THT, and is actually higher than Felix’s GB rate so far.
Last year, in a pitcher’s park, Johnson gave up 0.99 HR/9. He’s pitched 77.0 innings so far this season. At the same per inning rate as last year, he would’ve allowed 8.4 HRs so far. As it stands, he’s allowed 10 HR. Considering that Clevelend has more of a neutral park than Detroit (I think), this seems completely consistent with his previous performance.
What has changed is that his BABIP so far this season is a gaudy .347, second-worst in the AL amongst qualifying pitchers.
So my question here is (in keeping on topic with optimism for the second half) could Jason Johnson be part of the M’s second-half charge? Cleveland’s DER is 10 points worse than the M’s so far (at .693 compared to .703) and part of Johnson’s BABIP has got to be bad luck, right? Johnson’s 4.66 xFIP would be the second-best in the M’s rotation so far.
Johnson’s given up 10 HRs in 77 innings. That’s not good, by any means, but not exactly Franklinesque.
I could see the M’s signing Johnson off waivers (more likely, Cleveland will deal him for a modest prospect) and plugging him in the back of the rotation after the M’s sell high on Meche. Johnson would be far more protected in Safeco than he was in The Jake.
What think you?
Hmm, anyone want to swap out Piñeiro for Jason Johnson?
Jim & EC – Might not be a bad idea. With the IF the M’s have, it could only help Johnson (not sure about the gloves for Cleveland). definately worth considering. Wasn’t his contract for $1Mil? Pineiro could be moved to the pen, taking Mateo’s spot.
I would jump at a Pineiro/Johnson deal.
#88- ahhh, you know that Joel and his new crewcut will go out tonight, somehow dominate the Dodgers, and start the old Pineiro Hope Roller Coaster on the up-swing again….
I’m interested in what Dave thinks … he’s always been high on Johnson as cost-effective back-of-the-rotation fodder.
And who wouldn’t want a starting pitcher named “Johnson” back in the M’s rotation?
Considering Joel’s lifetime NL ERA, yeah, probably…but you never know.
And I’m not thinking trade. I’m thinking “Here, Joel, have a seat next to Eddie in the bullpen”.
Exactly what I thought when I read the headline – hit that.
Give ‘em Choo, I don’t care. Let’s us move Pineiro for anything, really. Let him try his luck this year and if all goes well, he could be had for 5 million or so next year I imagine.
He’s one of those guys that needs a solid infield defense, and that, we have.
Although, Prospectus rates Belliard and Peralta as great defenders, Aaron Boone as okay.
Taking a quick look at the numbers, both pitchers seem pretty similar. But Johnson being a GB pitcher might tip the scales. At the least, it would give us some more pitching depth. Seems better than the Mateo/Woods/Greene filler we have. Or Hargrove could go with a 13-man pitching staff.
Johnson’s given up 10 HRs in 77 innings. That’s not good, by any means, but not exactly Franklinesque.
Huh? That’s a 1.17 HR/9 rate. The AL league average this year is 1.15. It’s fine, and it’s probably unlucky given that Johnson gives up so few fly balls and research has generally shown that pitchers have little control over whether their flyballs go for home runs or not.
And if you’re trying to say that he’s noticably worse at giving up HRs than he was last year, he’s not, unless you’re willing to base your opinion on the fact that he’s allowed maybe 2 HRs more than you would expect. Good teams don’t make their decisions based on the outcome of 2 swings of the bat.
Johnson’s no more a home run pitcher now than he was before the season started.
Jason Johnson’s 2005 xFIP: 4.55
Jason Johnson’s 2006 xFIP: 4.66
He’s basically the same pitcher he’s always been, but the Indians scapegoated him because the team is underperforming and he’s been getting torched his last few starts.
I’d trade Pineiro for Johnson so fast it would make your head spin. Johnson would be a great pickup on the cheap for the M’s, even if the Indians don’t want Pineiro, and with our infield defense, this could be a perfect spot for him.
Bring Jason Johnson to Seattle.
Sounds like the Indians are just doing what we did the last couple of years, getting a head start on dumping veteran acquisitions that aren’t going to be part of their future. The Indians are, after all, so far out of the playoff picture that it would take a 1995-Mariners-style comeback for them to make it.
Yes, Please!
Per the Harball Times,
Seattle’s infield: +18 runs
Cleveland’s infield: -24 runs
Johnson’s GB rate: 59%
Think he might improve if he came here?
Johnson signed for 3.5 million/2006 with club option for 2007.
Is Beltre now Mediocre (rather than horrible)?
OPS by month:
April .518
May .656
June .804
An .800 OPS would put him 16th out of 25 ML 3Bmen this season (that qualify).
In defense of DMZ who obviously is nothing without my supporting opinion, sure this team is playing like an 82-83 win team but please lets not forget that the M’s basically have gotten fat this month by playing roughly 20 games of MLB’s version of *who’s the biggest loser*… while it’s clear the M’s arent (the biggest loser), it’s also clear after the A’s series, that they are far far far and away NOT a good bet to make a playoff run…
Wait, Jason Johnson is available? Claim him already!
Yeah, Dave, I would too. But Piñeiro has about the same trade value as Johnson (in other words, I expect him to be on the DFA list sometime this year unless he turns his pitching around), and is paid a lot more. If Shapiro’s ditching someone he thinks is a bad RHP, offering a more expensive bad RHP in exchange is not helping.
He’s been “designated for assignment.” He’s trade bait until June 30, and if that doesn’t happen, presumably he would seek to be released and become a free agent rather than accept a minor league assignment.
One would think he could be acquired for a modest prospect.
Heck, one would think he could be acquired for zip come June 30, and thus not have to pay a prorated share of 3.5 million.
I don’t see any harm in trying to flip a modest (probably very modest would work) prospect for Johnson to get in ahead of the rush and pick him up now (I’m assuming there’s at least one other team out there that would be interested in a groundball pitcher that could be significantly improved by good infield defense).
Why wait, if you’re not giving up anything all that significant?
You could also just offer a PTBNL like the Twins did for Boone last year. Come to think of it, did the M’s ever get a player out of that deal?
Seems like we have a pretty good consensus on Johnson. Now all we have to do is find the extra $2mil and talk the front office into a move. A move like this would definately free up the team to make some moves in the pitching staff. The team should have some concerns with the starting rotation, and how well it is going to hold up. We shall see…
How does DFA work, again? 10 days to work a trade, allowing the last 2 days for clearing waivers? Then player’s choice of free agency or minor league assignment? If I’ve got it basically right, then:
1. Cleveland will trade him for something. The Sox are supposedly looking at Jeff Weaver, for heaven’s sake. Someone close to contention will take a chance on him.
2. I doubt a “modest prospect” will be enough to get him. Cleveland isn’t dumping him just because he’s pitching poorly. They simply have a better option: some kid who’s 8-1, 1.27 at AAA.
Ahh, the luxury.
I think I heard the PTBNL ended up being a cash payment from the Twins.
Speaking of defense, any sense on why Sexson has gone from someone who seems to be rated an excellent defensive first basement to a defensive (as well as offensive) liability? Not sure what system Baseball Prospectus uses, but they rated his defense an Olerud-level 19 in 2003, then -5 by last year, even though he was still hitting well after his return from the injury. And he seems mediocre at best this year as well, in contrast with Beltre, whose glove has stayed golden despite his weak bat.
Anyone have an explanation?
I think I heard the PTBNL ended up being a cash payment from the Twins.
You mean they paid us?
I’d trade Pineiro for Johnson so fast it would make your head spin.
Dave, how’s your Bavasi impersonation these days? Would you also trade Meche for Johnson? I think the Indians might bite on that one.
With Pineiro, I’d even toss in the $1.5M to make up the difference in salary.
That said, I’d wager he winds up with the A’s.
a phrase you never thought you’d hear: “Meche is on the verge of being their best starter” (granted, it was KJR)
Or, “a phrase I never wanted to hear”!
#115: The M’s are not going to deal with the A’s.
I think #115 thought Johnson would end up with the A’s, not Joel.
I imagine Johnson ends up in the NL. Just a hunch.
I never really got the DFA. It’s just putting a deadline on yourself, and other teams likely aren’t willing to give a whole lot knowing that he’ll be there for the taking on the waiver wire.
It’s a tool that’s been used by Bavasi far too much and not a whole lot of good comes from it.
I’m confused why it’s such a nobrainer that the M’s would dump Piniero (and eat his salary) in favor of taking on Johnson and his salary.
I know the grass is always greener but shooting your cow to make room for another almost identical cow who’ll eat the same moldy grass not only doesnt help but frankly makes you less capable of competing with the famer down the road…..
[Pineiro]
Uh, Pineiro and Jason Johnson are not “almost identical” cows. Johnson is a fairly extreme groundball pitcher, with a slightly better K-rate and walks less people. What’s not an improvement?
I thought Johnson would become available…. Maybe, and again guys before I get flamed, maybe, Shapiro would take Eddie for Johnson if the M’s pick up most of his salary. Cleveland needs a LOOGY and Eddie’s line against lefties is .231 .259 .423 in 26 A/B’s. I know small sample size but can’t a guy dream. I know it’s a longshot but if Bavasi can find the $$$ then Joel goes to the ‘Pen or can then be DFA’d too.
Speaking of groundballs, I was wondering this the other day: it’s easy to rank the teams in terms of total double plays, but that’s not helpful because ideally a team doesn’t get into double-play situations in the first place. So which teams are most proficient at getting double plays when the opportunity arises (zero or one out, man on first, man on first and second, or bases loaded) ie, DPs / DPsituations ?
#120: The guys who typically get DFA’d already have minimal trade value, so the amount of leverage lost is essentially zero. The GM would have already tried to trade the player before designating him.
The real purpose of the DFA move is to free up a roster space for the player taking the designated player’s place. For example, Cleveland needed to designate somebody because their 40-man roster was full and Jeremy Sowers, the minor leaguer replacing Johnson in the rotation, was not already on it.
Bavasi has not DFA’d anyone who would have returned anything of value in a trade. In fact, his ability to maneuver Quiroz to Tacoma after DFA’ing him was quite slick.
joealb: I recall you making that suggestion in the “Johjima and Piniero” thread earlier in the week; I didn’t think they’d get rid of Johnson before bringing up Sowers but you called it on that one.
However, let me quote eponymous coward on the Eddie suggestion:
And Shapiro would have to be liquored up to agree to THAT trade. Good LOOGYs aren’t that hard to come by, and there’s a fair chance Eddie is just plain done, what with the bum shoulder and all.
24 dollar pizza…how much should I tip the delivery guy?
Joser, point well taken but if Bavasi sends say 85% of Eddie’s remaining $$ then It still might work. Your right that LOOGY’s are easy to come by but Cleveland doesn’t have an experienced one. Rafael Perez, Cleveland’s only Lefty in the pen has 3 total appearances at the major league level. If Shapiro wont deal for Eddie or a low level prospect (Choo?) Then Bavasi should walk away. I don’t think Joel is good match unless they want him as a bullpen guy and Bavasi would have to eat most of his contract too. I’m not all that high on Johnson but I think he would be a slight upgrade over Joel and every little bit helps.
#123: the two guys are pretty much clones….an amazing feat since a cow has only been cloned one time in human history and it’s currently debated in the scientific community if indeed the cows in question really are clones…
Now back to our figuritive cows (aka 2006-same old Johnson and the reinvented Joel):
J. Johnson
ERA: 5.96
WHIP: 1.69
BAA: .341
K/9:3.74
BB/9: 1.46
HR:10
G/F: 2.85
salary: $3,500,00
age:32
Joel P.
ERA:5.34
WHIP: 1.58
BAA: .332
K/9: 3.93
BB/9: 1.22
HR: 11
G/F: 1.71
salary: $6,800,000
age:27
So you asked “what’s not an improvement?”. Thats pretty much a great example of whats not an improvement.
Now factor in that you’d probably have to eat the rest of Joel’s salary to dump him and take on the rest of Johnson’s salary to get him if you claim him and I’d say another catch phrase would also apply…i.e. *pissing away money*
Oops, I goofed up on the K/9 calculations, Joel has the slightly higher K-rate. I think I did them in calculator last night and got their numbers switched. Still, Johnson has always been a lot better at inducing groundballs than Joel, and this year he’s been an extreme groundball pitcher, though to Joel’s credit he’s been better at inducing them too. Also Joel has walked 3.23 batters per 9 to Johnsons 2.57. I do think Jacobs field has something with Johnson’s huge spike in GB% this year, but he’s always been better at inducing them, than even Joel has been THIS year. He’s replacement level, but so is Joel, and with our infield, who knows.
Oh, and I did realize the age issue, but at this point it’s not like we’d be picking him up for anything more than a tryout for the rest of the year.