So, what now?
There are two days left in June, 82 games left in the season, and five weeks until the non-waiver trading deadline. The Mariners are 40-39, one game over .500 for the first time in something like 183 years, and have a +29 run differential, the best in the American League West. They are two games behind Oakland for the lead in the AL West, but the A’s have only scored two more runs than they’ve allowed, so they haven’t exactly been playing stellar baseball all year long.
So, the question on everyone’s minds is what do the Mariners do now? Is this for real? A month ago, we were counting down the days until Mike Hargrove was fired and figuring out if any of the veterans had trade value to flip for prospects in the annual summer sell off. Right now, however, breaking up this team is incomprehendable, as this is the most fun Mariners fans have had in years. The offense is steamrolling people right now, as 7 of the 9 regulars are posting an .800+ OPS for the month, with Ichiro/Ibanez/Johjima all being over 1.000. They’ve won their last four games, scoring 9, 9, 11, and 10 runs in those four games. The memory of Joe Blanton making these guys look miserable seems like ages ago.
The most encouraging signs have clearly been the improvement of Adrian Beltre, who is wrapping up his best month as a Mariner (.314/.375/.588, 17 of his 32 hits are XBH), and Felix Hernandez, who has posted a 3.38 ERA in 34 2/3 innings during June, giving up just three home runs, six walks, and striking out 29 batters. With Good Adrian and Good Felix replacing Bad Adrian and Bad Felix, the team has swung into another gear, essentially removing replacement level production and adding all-star level production. Those two both have all kinds of talent, and we’ve seen what this team can do when they are providing production that goes along with expectations.
However, we’ve also seen this team at its worst, when Beltre and Sexson aren’t hitting, Felix isn’t commanding his fastball, and the team spins its wheels due to the lack of firepower in the middle of the order and front of the rotation. That they’re playing well now does not guarantee that they’ll play well in July, August, or September. The M’s are full of players with huge variances in plausible performance. Adrian Beltre in April was the worst player in baseball, and we saw him struggle for almost all of 2005. However, in June, he’s been one of the best third baseman in the game, combining a high offensive level with his usual terrific defense. Despite what you feel about Beltre, both of these performances are well within reasonable expectations for the rest of the year. Beltre could be great, or he could be horrible. A large percentage of the team is like that.
So, what do you do? Personally, I think this team is a contender for the AL West (run differential makes that point almost inarguable), and the team should be looking at ways to improve the current 25 man roster. I’m not advocating a mortgage-the-future series of moves where the young talent in the minors is shipped out for modest upgrades, but this team is in a position to have a legitimate pennant race down the stretch that would bring excitement back to the organization for the first time in years, and they should not squander that opportunity.
The M’s, even while playing well, have some issues. There are spots on this team that could be easily upgraded. Let’s take a look at the possibilities.
LF/DH
Raul Ibanez is helping carry the offense right now, and his surge has been a big part of the reason why the team is scoring runs in bunches. However, while we’ve been wrong about Ibanez before, I still don’t feel its wise to expect him to sustain this level of performance – he’s never been this good, and its not often that a player has a career year power wise at age 34. Keep in mind, he slugged .474 before the all-star break last year and .393 afterwards.
He’s also a defensive liability in left field, and his lack of range was on full display last night. His defensive skills are best suited to DH’ing at this point, and the team’s current DH is hitting like a middle infielder. With Carl Everett reaffirming what we already believed, that he’s done as a major league starter, the team would do do well to slide Ibanez back to his DH role and acquire a left fielder to both upgrade the offense and the outfield defense. Jarrod Washburn, especially, would appreciate the help.
The M’s have some internal options here that, in my opinion, are more attractive that completing a deal for a rent-a-player. Doyle is hitting .271/.385/.415 for the Rainiers. The low SLG isn’t representative of how well he’s hitting the ball – 13 of his 32 hits are for extra bases, but 11 of those 13 are doubles. If a player is making consistent contact like Doyle is, he’ll drive the ball out of the yard more often than that. He also has the ability to work the count and a history of providing a high OBP even when he’s not hitting, which is something the offense lacks at the moment. Doyle would be a perfect fit in the #2 hole, but if the team decided not to mess with Beltre’s success, he could improve the bottom of the line-up as well, sliding in to the #7 spot.
His defensive skills aren’t what they once were (though he still has a very good arm), but he’s a better outfielder than Raul Ibanez. He’s been playing center field for Tacoma to stay away from the chainlink fences of Cheney Stadium, but that wouldn’t be a concern in major league parks, and his range is best suited to a corner. Having him and Raul shift between LF/DH could be a good way to keep the workload off both of them, while improving the offense and defense without having to acquire outside help.
Health is obviously the main concern, but he’s healthy now, and the organization shouldn’t let fear that he may get injured again stop them from reaping the benefits of what he can provide while he’s on the field.
Replacing Everett with Doyle would improve the team both offensively and defensively, all with the simultaneous advantage of keeping Carl Everett’s 2007 option from vesting. Everett has played badly enough that his benching/release could be easily explained as a performance issue to avoid any issues with the players union. While the team may take a don’t-mess-with-what’s-working attitude, they also can’t ignore that they’ve been on their biggest tear with Carl Everett on the bench. If his intangibles that they love so much can be provided from the bench during interleague play, they can be provided from the bench when the team has a DH too.
So for the LF/DH, Doyle should be option #1. Option #2 would be making a trade that doesn’t cost the team a significant piece of the future or bring in salary commitments for 2007 – the big name guys like Carlos Lee don’t interest me. We’re not at the point where we want to be trading away top prospects, but if the team could pick up Jose Cruz Jr for a guy like Oswaldo Navaroo or Mike Wilson, I’m fine with that. They could also promote Shin-Soo Choo, but despite his recent surge, he’s still a fourth outfielder in the majors. Adam Jones isn’t an option – he’s not ready, and he shouldn’t see Seattle until 2007 at the earliest.
Solid middle reliever
While we love Soriano and Putz at the end of games, and Sherrill is death to lefties, the rest of the bullpen is replacement level or worse. Woods, Green, Mateo, and Guardado simply aren’t good enough to be pitching in high leverage situations. This team needs another arm who can come in and strand baserunners. The back end of the bullpen is mostly contact flyball pitchers who can’t miss enough bats to be useful in situations with runners on and a tight lead to protect.
The M’s don’t have many good in house options here. Fruto and Cruceta have enough stuff to miss bats, but both need improved command, and its unlikely Mike Hargrove would trust them in critical situations over a “proven veteran” such as Eddie Guardado or Julio Mateo. The M’s need another arm back there that Grover can trust, and that’s probably going to have to come from outside the organization.
The nice thing is that good relievers can be acquired without paying an arm and a leg, especially if you’re not paying for the proven closer tag. Kyle Farnsworth was acquired last year while pitching extremely well for the Cubs, and the Tigers gave up Roberto Novoa, Bo Flowers, and Scott Moore. None of these guys are or were top prospects, and they’re the kind of expendable talent that isn’t that hard to replace. The M’s could really use an arm like Farnsworth to help get them through to Soriano and Putz at the end of the game, and if the cost is a couple of guys who could be role players down the line if everything breaks well, that’s a reasonable price to pay.
Some potential targets could include Jon Rauch (Washington) or Jorge Julio (Arizona) if they want to avoid a financial commitment, or Bob Howry (Cubs) if they feel like taking on some salary.
#5 starter
Joel Pineiro’s been terrible. His stuff is gone, and at this point, he’s a junkballer who hopes the other team gets himself out. There’s almost no chance he returns next year, and he’s barely hanging onto his rotation spot.
However, a #5 starter is easily marginalized if the team is willing to use its off days to skip his starts, so I don’t think this upgrade is as important as improving the LF/DH spot or adding another arm to the pen. The fifth starter goes away entirely in the playoffs, so you don’t want to mortgage the farm to pick up a guy who may not even pitch critical innings for you in games that count the most.
That said, it would be helpful to have someone who was more effective than Pineiro taking the hill every five days. Again, there’s probably not anyone in the system who Grover would trust with the role – he’s seen and voted against Bobby Livingston and Clint Nageotte (neither of whom are lighting up Tacoma, to be honest), and Cruceta isn’t likely to get a real shot in the rotation. Cha Baek has less stuff than Pineiro and would be a batting practice pitcher in the majors, so again, any upgrade probably has to come from outside the organization.
So, here’s a crazy suggestion; trade for Jeff Weaver. He’s been terrible for the Angels this year, sporting a 6.29 ERA and he’s due over $4 million for the rest of the year. The Angels are on the verge of replacing him with his brother Jered, who is simply a better pitcher right now.
However, Jeff Weaver is a great bet to pitch better as the year goes on. His 6.29 ERA isn’t close to his Fielding Independant ERA (5.20) or xFIP (4.61), which adjusts for HR/FB rate. Weaver’s peripherals aren’t much different than what they were previous years – 2.0 walks, 6.0 strikeouts, 39% GB rate. He’s a flyball pitcher who throws strikes and occassionally misses bats.
This year, he’s been struggling because teams are getting more hits on balls in play than expected, he’s giving up more homers per fly ball than expected, and he’s got worst Left on Base% of any starting pitcher in the American League. Basically, he’s the anti-Jarrod Washburn, who last year had those three things break in his favor and cashed in on non-repeatable skills. Weaver’s not going to keep giving up home runs at this rate, and he’s not going to keep giving up hits with RISP at this rate. He’s a great bet to pitch better in the second half of the year than he has to date.
The difference between Joel Pineiro’s salary the rest of the year and Jeff Weaver’s is about $1 million. Weaver, on a one year deal with the Angels, has almost no chance to be back with the club next year, while Joel Pineiro will be arb. eligible and still under club control. I would imagine, in purely speculative form, that the Angels would gladly eat the million dollar difference to gain the rights to a pitcher who they could still potentiall have on their roster next year while opening a rotation spot for Jered Weaver without having to demote his brother to the pen in order to create the opening.
So, working off the assumption that the Angels would make up the cash difference, would you rather have Joel Pineiro or Jeff Weaver the rest of the year:
Pineiro: 3.0 BB/G, 4.0 K/G, 47.2 GB%, 16.7% HR/FB, 68.2 LOB%, 4.83 xFIP
Weaver: 2.0 BB/G, 6.0 K/G, 39.2 GB%, 16.8% HR/FB, 62.4 LOB%, 4.61 xFIP
Weaver has outpitched Pineiro despite pitching in a less friendly park (FIP and xFIP aren’t park adjusted), and he has better stuff and a better track record.
Jeff Weaver’s not the answer to all the Mariners problems, but he’s a better bet for the second half than Joel Pineiro is. It’s the classic change of scenery trade that potentially helps both clubs. The Mariners are reticent to trade within their own division, but this is a time where the two sides could benefit too much to ignore such a deal.
So, that’s my plan, as of June 28th. Bring up Doyle and let him and Raul share LF/DH with Everett playing DH occassionally to keep everyone healthy, package a couple okay-but-not-great prospects for a servicable middle reliever, and swap Pineiro for Jeff Weaver with the Angels picking up the salary difference.
The current roster gets better and the future is still intact. The M’s have a shot to win this division – they shouldn’t ignore that. However, they also shouldn’t be overconfident, because the reality is that this team still has some significant downside potential. They have a month to figure out if they’re for real. Right now, they look good enough to contend in a mediocre division, and I’d like to see them increase their chances of making September a good time to be a Mariner fan again.
http://ussmariner.com/2006/06/27/thirty-nine-and-thirty-nine/#comment-118845
I guess that’s a case of ask and ye shall receive.
Thanks!
Assuming that Jason Schmidt’s recent conversation about coming to the Ms wasn’t all hot air, would the Giants swap Piniero for Schmidt? The Giants would be definitely getting something for Schmidt, who apparently already announced his intentions to leave San Fran for Seattle.
Go Doyle!
If we bring Doyle up, who do we ship down/out to make the space for him?
who should we ship down or who will we ship down?
I was waiting for a post along these lines to comment on, and here it is.
I agree with you on the positions that need to be upgraded. I would like to point out a few things though.
For LF/DH, I’m still in favour of trying to add a proven, consistent bat. While i still have some faith left in Doyle, this team is comprised almosst entirely of streaky hitters, as you mentioned. I think a guy like Abreu (who I argued earlier shoudl be a target of the M’s) would do wonders for the offensive consistency as a high OBP guy with base stealing ability and a bit of pop. What you’d have to give up though could definitely be a problem.
At middle relief, you are correct on all sides…except that I believe Jake Woods could be the guy they need. Yes, I would still add another guy, but you need at least 4 quality relievers and a left handed specialist, and in looking at Woods’ recent numbers i see no reason to keep him out of games. In June (since we are so fond of using June numbers for the Mariners), Woods has pictched in 4 games (not enough IMO) and logged 10.1 innings of work (third most of marnier relievers behind Soriano and Putz) His ERA? 0.00. WHIP just over 1. I think his issue at this point is a lack of regular work as Grover stupidly turns to Mateo, guardado, and Green for innings that could go to Woods. The combined June ERA of Woods, Soriano, and Putz is 0.75. Keep Sherril in the rotation for lefty-only situations (and stop trotting him out to lead off innings), and go looking for one more bullpen arm to spell your 3.5 main guys if the load ramps up.
As for a 5th starter….its tough. Starting pitching is at a premium, as always, and an upgrade over Joel will be hard to find (even if he has been terrible this month). I keep hoping some coach will take him aside and say “try throwing it like this” and all of a sudden he’ll regain the stuff he had in 01-02 when he looked like an Ace in the making. Sadly, it is perhaps not coming. I think, seeing the other areas of need, they might jsut want to ride it out with him until one of the young guys gets on track, and use what resources they have to concentrate on a) LF and then b) a middle reliever.
Also, aren’t there 83 games left? Am I missing something?
The Giants have a surplus of pitching options in the 5th spot (Correia, Hennessey, Wright), all of whom are superior to Joel. Moreover, why would the Giants trade an elite pitcher for an overpayed crappy one? Regardless of your opinion of Sabean as a GM, he is not a blithering idiot.
I just wanted to point out that King Felix is at 97 innings pitched this year. My recollection is that the conventional wisdom was that Felix should be kept to 200 innings this year to preserve his arm. If we start skipping the fifth spot in the rotation, we’ll either use up Felix in early September or have him pitch more innings than he should. While I’m certainly thrilled about the Mariners’ climb back into contention, I’m not willing to risk Felix’s long-term future over it.
Everett has been bad… but i can’t beleive that replacing him with the PITCHER is in anyway related to the M’s offensive surge.
But yeah, there are options. Is Jack Cust still a prospect? He was pegged as the next Edgar Martinez a few years ago, but I heard he got hurt.
8- It actually is more than 97 innings because they have said that both spring training AND regular season are factored in… I agree, that would mean he only has about 80-90 innings left if they are going to keep with their promise of 200 or less innings. Considering he is at 97 regular season innings and we are about halfway through the season, that would translate to just under 200 innings without any skipped starts. Skipped starts down the stretch are just about guaranteed for Felix so I have no worries that he will be able to stay strong and will stay below his inning limit
I want the M’s to replace Everett with Ibanez at DH and Doyle in LF, but will Grover allow that to happen. I have been under the impression that Grover is and has been an Everett backer.
Dave,
“the team would do do well to slide Ibanez back to his DH role and acquire a left fielder to both upgrade the offense and the outfield defense.”
Agreed. Doyle or a proven guy. It doesn’t matter to me. If we are better without Carl Everett playing at all, how can putting someone who’s doing it in the majors now, or Doyle who has great potential and better defense than Raul be that risky a move. It isn’t.
2 – The Giants in exactly the same boat as the M’s: one game over .500, two games out of first in a winable division. Why would they trade Jason Schmidt?
What about Greg Maddux? He’s clearly over the hill, but I’d think an over the hill Maddux is better than Pineiro. It also sounds like the Cubs are willing to trade him and not expecting a huge return. Is he too far over the hill?
Does Greg Maddux have a contract that would allow him to be traded to the M’s without his approval?
I thought the word on Maddux is that he’s an NL-only guy. Considering the way interleague play has looked, that’s probably the prime reason he’s still a serviceable starter.
I totally agree that Doyle is the bat the M’s need to add, sliding Ibanez to the DH spot and Carl to the bench. Abreu is a big name and would require us to give up too much in my opinion. As far as the pitching staff goes, I don’t see why the Angels would try to help the M’s by trading Jeff Weaver to them unless they are as down on him as we are on Pineiro. Maybe they are. Honestly, I think the best the M’s can hope for is to strengthen the bullpen as Dave suggested with a solid middle reliever or two. The cost wouldn’t be high and strengthening that area would help make up for the lack of dominant starting pitching.
I will definitely agree on this point: any Angels pitcher would look far better with the M’s defense behind him. I watched a good chunk of Weaver’s start against Col (he didn’t last through the 3rd inning), and the defense was just killing him. You could see him wilt as guy after guy got on when routine outs were booted into men on base (the Angels only got charged with 2 errors in that game, none with Weaver on the mound, but there were far more groundball plays that a competent defensive team — like the M’s — would have turned into outs). And then the (home) crowd started booing him.
I’m not saying I like the idea of Weaver in an M’s uniform, even as a salary-neutral swap for Piniero (Weaver may already be a headcase, among other things). What I’m saying is that the halos are a bad, bad defensive team (62 Es, worst in the AL; the M’s have 34) and it’s worth factoring that into any evaluation you make of their pitching. And that’s before any park adjustments are factored in.
One thing about Piniero: he’s now a junkballer, which means he’s going to appear “inconsistent.” Occasionally he’ll have a good outing, but all that means is the team he’s facing is making bad guesses. Flip enough coins, and you’ll get a run of tails in a row. Doesn’t mean it’s a repeatable skill. But as soon as that happens you’ll hear a lot of talk about how he’s “rediscovered his stuff” or “he’s figured something out” or he’s “returning to his AL Player of the Week form” or yadda yadda yadda. Don’t believe any of it.
I don’t disagree with much of your analysis, Dave, but how does trading Weaver for a guy whose “stuff is gone” and who is a “junkballer who hopes the other team gets himself out” help the Angels? If you think Weaver’s clearly the superior pitcher, basically your trade rests on the Angels being stupid and considering Piñeiro a superior option- but this isn’t Jarrod Washburn with a shiny ERA in the 3′s with horrible peripherals here; this is a pitcher who pretty clearly can’t get anyone out, has the stats to show for it, and any scout with a brain can see isn’t hitting 94 on the radar gun any more.
Realistically, the Angels would be much smarter trading Weaver for B prospects during July Tradeapalooza and promoting his younger brother (or just plain dumping him and eating the money, instead of trading for another bad starter who’d just gum up the rotation with a 5-and-a-half ERA). Assuming that’s you find out when you call up Bill Stoneman as the new Mariner GM to propose this deal tomorrow, what’s a realistic package you’d put together for him?
While I do agree with you that Weaver would be an improvement over Pineiro, I just don’t think there’s much of a chance that the Angels (or any other Major League team) will see it as a bonus that Pineiro is under club control for one more season.
I wouldn’t think that there any teams out there that see him as a $6-7 million arm, even on a short deal. His salary this year is $6.8 million, so even if he stays at his current performance level and doesn’t improve the rest of the year, he’ll still get $7.5 million or so for 2007 if he’s offered arbitration. The Angels weren’t willing to take the chance of offering Jarrod Washburn arbitration last winter, risking that he’d accept and get $7 mil+, so why would they view it as an asset to have Pineiro, a worse pitcher than Washburn, for ’07?
Add in the simple fact that the Angels don’t need another starter now or in 2007. What they need to do for ’06 is get rid of Jeff Weaver to make room for his brother in the rotation. They have Colon, Escobar and Lackey all signed to long-term deals and they have Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana in their pre-arbitration years. Why would they want a $7.5 mil underperformer like Pineiro when they aren’t going to have room for him in their rotation?
Maddux might work, but it’s going to take more than Pineiro to get him. The Cubs might like the idea of replacing him Joel, just because he is arbitration eligable. However, they’re going to want something else. Perhaps, if you truly believe Choo’s ceiling is a 4th outfielder you could include him. He’d certainly be an improvement to what the Cubs are currently throwing out there in the outfield. I believe though that the Cubs would probably want us to take on the rest of Phil Nevin’s deal as well. I don’t know if I pull the trigger on that.
Also: I might note that the Angels were perfectly happy to DUMP Jarrod “hey look at that ERA!” Washburn, and pick up Weaver on a one year deal instead… so I sort of doubt they are hot to acquire a right handed and even less effective Puerto Rican version of him.
I like your plan, Dave.
But this is the Mariners we are talking about – when was the last time they made a good in-season trade? Or did anything risky like benching a vet’ran in favor of an unproven kid?
Wishful thinking; it ain’t gonna happen.
On the other hand, the Freddy Garcia trade was pretty good. At least it seemed like it at the time. So maybe there’s hope…
Whoops, it seems like Jon Wells and I are sharing a brain today, as far as baseball posts. I consider that a trade up.
18 – Weaver has a 6.29 ERA and has let up 114 hits in 88.2 innings, including 18 homeruns. I think that the Angels would view this as addition by subtraction, especially considering they want to bring Jered back to the Majors.
I have always liked Weaver, ever since his days with the Tigers, and I think he’s the sort of pitcher that could succeed very well in Safeco with our defense behind him. Count me in.
I lived in Michigan when the Tigers had Weaver. He’s always been a bit of a head case, and shown signs of inconsistency. He’s been tough (good) in stretches, but I don’t know if this string of bad outings (and failure to meet expectations with several teams) has done him in mentally. Throw in little bro making you look bad at family gatherings, and he makes Meche look like Roger Clemens in terms of mental toughness. If we upgrade LF, I like the idea a bit more. Flyball pitchers don’t exactly benefit as much from a great infield defense after all.
The Angels are probably going to release Weaver at some point anyways. They wouldn’t trade weaver to acquire equal talent, they would trade him to save face so that they wouldn’t have to demote him for his brother and avoind an all around akward situation.
I don’t think that the Angels would eat that $1 mil, but if the M’s took it on, they would be more than happy to release Pineiro instead to save the money.
Recent history has suggested we have to devalue any hitting stats for players coming over from the NL. Even more recent history (ie the way interleague play has gone) suggests that goes double for pitchers. Any pitcher the M’s could get in trade from an NL team wouldn’t be worth Pineiro (and I say that with full awareness that Pineiro isn’t worth much). Regardless of what might be wafting over the Bay there’s no way the Giants FO is smoking enough of it to trade Schmidt (given how tight and crappy the NL West is, even if the Giants don’t win a game in July they’ll probably still be in the mix for a pennant — as others have said, they’re in exactly the same boat as the M’s, and would Seattle trade away Moyer for some other team’s #5?) Schmidt’s comments were just a little savvy prepping the field for the FA market in the offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if he said something similar anywhere else he pitched if he was asked by the local media. Create interest, hope for a groundswell, pray for a bidding war. But that’s for this winter, not this season.
Forget a Big Name pitcher. You’re not getting that for Pineiro. There may be some available by the trading deadline, but you will have to package a bunch of prospects with Pineiro, and/or take on a lot of salary. Dave’s suggestions were all about not mortgaging the future. Given how lousy (and therefore winnable) the AL West is this year, it’s worth making some moves to try to grab a pennant (even if the team isn’t built to get past the first round in the playoffs). The team as it is currently constructed and playing is on its way to being a very good team, but it’s not there yet. Remember where it is coming from; a .500 season is a hell of an improvement. There’s no way you can turn this into a WS team on the fly in July, but you can win a bunch of games, gain some interest back, get some pennant race excitement (even if they ultimately fall short) and prepare for building a true winner this winter.
I’d argue that the M’s don’t need to upgrade their fifth starter – to go from Pinero to Weaver only adds less than a win, even if Weaver improves from where he has been all year. Instead, the M’s need a solid number 2, preferrably one who will stay for next year. Schmidt would be a good choice if the Giants slip – they have nothing in their farm, and might go for a package built around Choo, Navarro, and a catcher. Tim Hudson might be a good bet. Maybe Cliff Lee could be had for the right price. Jon Lieber (dig that 4 to 1 K:BB ratio) if he comes back OK. Maybe BK from the Rox if they go on a losing streak. Kerry Wood if he can pitch two games in a row (a big if). Those are the kind of guys that might help the M’s make a big upgrade.
Good back of the bullpen arms can be had for cash in August, no rush on that. When Fruto is around, he is a good fourth choice, and Piniero might be able to add some value as a long man if he’s out of the rotation.
I’d wait another three weeks before making any sort of move to bring in a high price player. The uncomfortable truth is that the April team could show up again at any time, putting the M’s five or more games out, and punching Gil Meche’s ticket to the Bronx.
Dave wrote:
“…Personally, I think this team is a contender for the AL West (run differential makes that point almost inarguable),….”
Amen, brother. I just wanted to add that, by pythag expected win-loss, the M’s are at 42.4 – 36.6, roughly a couple games ahead of Texas and nearly four games better than the A’s. There was a point I wanted to make in Tuesday’s thread, in response to those who say the M’s can’t be a contender until they beat the A’s…
…Yes, they can. Remember, the A’s are only 32-35 against non-M’s opponents, while the M’s are 39-30 against all teams not based in Oakland. I do not believe the A’s will continue to completely dominate the M’s (at worst, I think the M’s lose 5 of the remaining 9 games they have left with Oakland, 6 of which are played in Seattle). Based just on the way they’ve played thus far, it won’t be that hard to make up games on Oakland if we’re not punting 9 of 10 to them personally. The M’s have to hold their own against the A’s, and they definitely have to do the same or better in the 10 games (6 away) they have left with Texas, BUT those teams will help you out.
Count me an optimist, even if I take Dave’s caveats about how much variance in performance we might expect from many key parts of the M’s.
Odd stat I stumbled across while looking up the Angels team error number: how do current and former M’s leftside infielders stack up for errors? Yeah, I know E is badly subjective and unreliable stat. It’s just kind of funny (particularly in Beltre’s case, who is getting outs on batted balls most 3rd basemen wouldn’t have a chance at).
The Angels are in a dilemma; right now, Jered Weaver is their best starting pitcher. He was dominant when Colon was on the DL, but when Colon returned, they decided they had no choice but to send him back to Triple-A, because they didn’t want to create the conflict of having Jered replace Jeff in the rotation.
They know Jered is a better pitcher. They’d rather have Jered starting. They’re trying to figure out how to make the switch while handling the personalities involved. Right or wrong, they don’t want to bring Jered up and send Jeff to the bullpen.
So, until they find a way to remove Jeff from the rotation, Jered stays in Triple-A. They’d love to trade Jeff Weaver, thus creating a spot for Jered without giving Jeff a “demotion”.
With Pineiro, they’d have no such problem, and they could easily stick him in the bullpen or even in Triple-A, as he has an option remaining. The win for them is that they get Jered Weaver starting, not that they get Joel Pineiro in return.
#29. Agreed. There’s very likely no Wild Card contention for the AL West. Perform a bit better against Oakland in the 2nd half and do well against other teams, and there’s a chance Oakland becomes a non-factor and the M’s win the division. If the A’s don’t step it up, that is.
Dave – I always enjoy the USSM “what the M’s should do” posts (I wish the front office liked them as much as I do), but more often than not the M’s don’t go in that direction. What do you think the M’s WILL do?
Sorry guys, Weaver’s headcase issues will kill any good there might be here.
Look at his time in NY. I just do not believe he can give us any better upgrade than Pineiro PLUS I am of the belief Stoneman will want more than Pineiro for Weaver.
Dave-
That doesn’t explain why trading Weaver and a pile of cash for a minor leaguer who might not suck in a year or two, or even a PTBNL (that turns out to be $50 and a ham sandwich at Denny’s at the next MLB GM meeting, ala Bret Boone) isn’t preferable to trading for an awful player who you don’t want anyway.
And Joel STILL has minor league options? Doesn’t he have 5 years of service time yet, enough to say “go to hell” if they try this?
At middle relief, you are correct on all sides…except that I believe Jake Woods could be the guy they need. Yes, I would still add another guy, but you need at least 4 quality relievers and a left handed specialist, and in looking at Woods’ recent numbers i see no reason to keep him out of games. In June (since we are so fond of using June numbers for the Mariners), Woods has pictched in 4 games (not enough IMO) and logged 10.1 innings of work (third most of marnier relievers behind Soriano and Putz) His ERA? 0.00. WHIP just over 1.
WHIP and ERA are not good evaluation tools for pitchers in general, but even less so for relievers.
In those 10 1/3 innings Woods has pitched this month, he’s walked 5 guys and struck out 6. That’s not a recipe for long term success. He’s not pitching significantly better – he’s been the recipient of outs on balls in play. That’s not what the M’s need.
I take what has happened in the series played with the A’s as to where the M’s really stand. Truth is the M’s have fattened up on the weak NL and the Angels. The M’s have also so far avoided the rash of injuries and such that have kept the Angels and A’s from being better. Just wait until Johjima takes another foul tip off the kneecap and is out 15 days or Beltre’s hamstring suddenly pops. Who replaces them? The brutal July schedule will re-expose the team for what it really is and unfortunately the window for necessary purging of deadwood like Hargrove, Everett and Guardado are gone since the M’s are “still in it”. Our chains will be yanked the rest of the season and the future will be on hold yet again because of this four week upswing. But hey the stands will now be filled up proving once again management is right and on course……..
And, before we get a little too enthusiastic, let’s remember the M’s face a long summer against much better teams than they’ve faced so far (on average). SD/KC/TB/Min is one thing; Bos/NYY/Det/Tor is something else.
One item of note is that the Mariners have been remarkably free of injury thus far. Oakland, on the other hand, has not. With the M’s lack of positional depth, they may be more prone to the effects of an extended loss due to injury. Seattle is smoking the NL, but can they handle the DL?
Wonderful post, as always.
I have been hankering for a decent backup catcher, preferably left-handed-hitting. I know those are few and far between (suggestions on potential DFAs, anyone?). I am worried about wearing Kenji out and the sizable downgrade with the current options when he rests.
That doesn’t explain why trading Weaver and a pile of cash for a minor leaguer who might not suck in a year or two, or even a PTBNL (that turns out to be $50 and a ham sandwich at Denny’s at the next MLB GM meeting, ala Bret Boone) isn’t preferable to trading for an awful player who you don’t want anyway.
Jason Johnson was sold for cash, and Johnson was pitching better than Weaver is now. Weaver also has a bad reputation around the game.
There just aren’t going to be teams lining up to give up any kind of prospect for a guy with a 6.29 ERA.
Okay, seriously, stop with the “they’ve beaten up on bad teams” stuff. The Mariners have played the 12th hardest schedule in baseball to date. The fact that they lost to Boston and New York in April does not count more than the fact that they’re beating San Diego and Los Angeles in June.
The M’s had a brutal early season schedule that has since softened out. They lost to good teams and are beating bad teams.
That’s what EVERY team in baseball does.
The M’s have not benefited more than the A’s or Rangers from a weak schedule. They just haven’t. If you want to believe this team stinks, find a real reason to support your cause, because strength of schedule isn’t it.
Thus my comment about the PTBNL (which should read “Pile of cash To Be Named Later”). I understand the logic of wanting Jeff off the roster for Jared…but not so much the logic of Piñeiro coming back. Why waste a 40 man roster spot on someone you don’t really want, and how is trading for someone you dump in Salt Lake or DFA 20 minutes after you trade for him going to fool anyone?
(Doesn’t Piñeiro have the 5 years of service time necessary to say “go to hell” for a minor league option yet, anyway? He’s been in the majors since 2001 except for a fairly short stint in the minors last year…)
Thus my comment about the PTBNL (which should read “Pile of cash To Be Named Laterâ€Â). I understand the logic of wanting Jeff off the roster for Jared…but not so much the logic of Piñeiro coming back. Why waste a 40 man roster spot on someone you don’t really want, and how is trading for someone you dump in Salt Lake or DFA 20 minutes after you trade for him going to fool anyone?
They’re not going to get a pile of cash for Jeff Weaver. The odds that they get anything for Jeff Weaver are pretty long.
(Doesn’t Piñeiro have the 5 years of service time necessary to say “go to hell†for a minor league option yet, anyway? He’s been in the majors since 2001 except for a fairly short stint in the minors last year…)
I’ve been told he has an option remaining. I know enough about options to know that there are exceptions I don’t know about, but I can’t explain them. So I’m just trusting what I was told.
My understanding from the rules is that teams are free to assign you to their minor league affiliates by sending you out on options until you hit 5 years MLB service time. Since Joel was a callup in 2000 and 2001 but didn’t spend an entire year on the roster, those years don’t count as a full year:
2000+2001-
Gah, I hate HTML parsers that don’t grok “less than”.
2000+2001- less than 1 year of full service time at end of 2001, option burned in 2000
2002 less than 2
2003 less than 3
2004 less than 4
2005 less than 5, option burned
So at some point in 2006, he should cross over into being a 5 year veteran.
http://groups.msn.com/BaseballForum/mlbgeneraltransactionrules.msnw
The wrinkle in this division thing is going to be what Beane does. His offense has been really bad: he’s gotten production out of Swisher and a something out of Frank Thomas and Eric Chavez and that’s about it. I don’t know how he wriggles out of this, but he’s got to know that the A’s need to score a lot more runs if they’re going to stay in this, and he can’t be happy with their offense so far.
I’d like to see Fruto back in the pen.
The M’s B-Pro playoff % continues to rise day by day. The West as of now:
Oakland 30%
Texas 49%
Seattle 15%
LAAA 5%
PECOTA adjusted odds are 40/44/12/4. As I understand it that hurts the M’s because their PECOTA projection at the start of the season was bad. I think these numbers are low for the M’s because I expect the remainder of the season’s performance for the M’s to be closer to their recent performance than to their performance early in the season.
Also this doesn’t take into account the likelihood of any midseason trades.
Also… if I had to guess about when Joel crosses over the 5 year period, it would be probably sometime in June to July. Piñeiro’s first start as a Mariner in 2001 was July 26, and he only has a couple of bullpen appearances predating that.
So they’d better trade him quick…
I’m a little worried that Oakland, if they can get their pitching depth a little healthier, will have a lot more to deal when the deadline comes around. The M’s don’t have much flexibility when it comes to trades, but a healthy Oakland has enough to target major names at the deadline, not just serviceable stopgaps.
[Pineiro]
EC – I was at that game, July 2001, his fast ball was dominant, and he caught a screaming line drive come backer.
I’m pleased at the tenor of this post, if not necesssarily the specifics.
The perfect overall strategy for the Mariners is to make cautious moves to improve the team in a division they have a pretty reasonable chance to win, while not sacrificing any important future talent.
I definitely like the idea of getting Doyle up and out in the field to see what he can do, and move Raul to DH where his weaknesses are negated and his strengths further emphasized.
Weaver; I can see how this could be a win-win for both teams, but it just feels unlikely to me. I can’t explain it any better than that.
All of that being said, and on a more exciting topic; Dave et al, do you feel like there might be any possibilities out there for a truly team-changing deal for the Mariners? Or is it going to be all incremental moves?
I’m a little worried that Oakland, if they can get their pitching depth a little healthier, will have a lot more to deal when the deadline comes around. The M’s don’t have much flexibility when it comes to trades, but a healthy Oakland has enough to target major names at the deadline, not just serviceable stopgaps.
Why on earth do you think that’s true? The A’s farm system is, in a word, lousy. Their best prospect, Daric Barton, is injured, and wasn’t showing any power when healthy. Their #2 prospect, outfielder Javier Herrera, had TJ surgery and is out for the year. Their #3 prospect, Cliff Pennington, is hitting .203/.302/.277 in A ball. He’s 22-years-old and was supposed to be a polished college player, but right now, he’s overmatched by Cal League pitching.
The A’s cupboard is pretty close to bare. The Mariners have many, many more trade chips than the A’s do.
Oakland has scored the fewest runs in the American League this month. The New York Yankees have scored the second fewest. Both teams have been tremendously unlucky with injuries.
Perhaps Beane’s strategy is mostly counting on the hope that the A’s luck will change, and that Milton Bradley, Mark Ellis, and Frank Thomas (all off the DL soon), as well as Bobby Crosby (perhaps still effected by his hand injury) will be healthy enough to recharge their offense in the second half.
Can luck regress to the mean?
To be fair, Milton Bradley and Frank Thomas have been hurt their whole careers. It’s not unlucky when they go down – that’s expected.
Same with Rich Harden.
Dave,
I don’t know much about their farm system, but I did remember it being pretty dry. I was referring more to the pitchers the A’s have at the major-league level.
Blanton, Zito, Haren, Harden, Kennedy, Loaiza, Halsey, and Sarloos have all been in the rotation at some point during their career. If someone decides that they need another starter, and the A’s are healthy enough to let one of them go, then they might be able to make something happen. These guys have “proven themselves at the major league level.” That’s worth its weight in gold!
That’s the point I was trying to make.
The A’s cupboard is pretty close to bare. The Mariners have many, many more trade chips than the A’s do.
That’s not the problem. The problem is that years of prospect-o-rama has put the A’s in an excellent seller’s position. They could flip Zito today for Lastings Milledge with the right blood alcohol content in the Mets front office.
But that means they will have to sell in order to buy. If they want to go get Carlos Lee, it will require them selling Zito first to get the prospects to make the trade — or making a star-for-star deal that will require the A’s to eat salary.
The M’s aren’t in an ideal situation, but they can buy or sell. The problem is that their trades won’t merit enough.
Dave, why such a seller on Choo’s future?
He had an awful May, but in April and June he’s been a .300/.400/.500 guy (with a .200 ISO). I know he can’t play center, but he looks a lot more like a Randy Winn-type fring average bat than a guy who’s ceiling is no higher than a reserve. He seems like a good bet to at least out-produce Everett at this point.
Why again are the losses in April no more representative of the team than the wins in June? I mean we never get to play these NL West guys again so shouldn’t we focus more on the teams that we have played against and will play against the rest of the year?
I just don’t see how you can’t at least admit there are some signs that point to the reason behind this surge being the lower level of competition they have been playing.
Choo has all kinds of flaws.
Offensively, he lacks the power necessary to be a regular corner outfielder. Slugging .478 in the PCL isn’t really an accomplishment, and his ISO is just .160. 29 of his 94 hits are for extra bases, an underwhelming 31% of his total hits. You’d be hard pressed to find a guy putting up significant power numbers in the majors who only had 30% of his hits in the minors go for extra bases.
Guys who can’t drive the ball with regularity often seen their walk rates plummet when they reach the majors. Major league pitchers will challenge hitters without enough power to be a threat, and if they can’t make them pay for the mistake regularly, they’ll see an endless supply of strikes. That’s essentially what we saw with Jeremy Reed last year – he didn’t have much power, so pitchers went after him and his walk rate collapsed.
Choo’s not a prolific walker anyways, but without enough power to draw scare walks, he’s probably going to walk in less than 10% of his major league AB’s. That means his OBP will have to be driven by batting average, and he’s not a good enough contact hitter to hit .300+ consistently.
He also can’t hit lefties at all. Totally useless against them. So all his offensive value is going to come against right-handers.
In the majors, he’s probably a .270/.330/.420 guy. He might peak out at .290/.350/.450. For a corner outfielder who takes horrible routes to the ball (seriously, he’s baaaaaaaaaad with the glove), that’s simply not going to be enough to be a major league regular.
Shin-Soo Choo is Todd Hollandsworth with an accent.
Getting labeled a “headcase” at some point in a pitcher’s career, especially in New York, is not much reason to reject a guy. Kenny Rogers was called a headcase. Pitchers often have big swings in apparent performance; there’s always an urge to put some kind of label on it. I’d rather go by stuff we can quantify, like Dave’s analysis of Weaver.
Why again are the losses in April no more representative of the team than the wins in June? I mean we never get to play these NL West guys again so shouldn’t we focus more on the teams that we have played against and will play against the rest of the year?
No.
I just don’t see how you can’t at least admit there are some signs that point to the reason behind this surge being the lower level of competition they have been playing.
You don’t understand that this is true of every major league team.
Okay, seriously, stop with the “they’ve beaten up on bad teams†stuff. The Mariners have played the 12th hardest schedule in baseball to date. The fact that they lost to Boston and New York in April does not count more than the fact that they’re beating San Diego and Los Angeles in June.
Granted. However, that cuts both ways. Just as we shouldn’t have gotten as discouraged as we did in April, we shouldn’t be unreasonably encouraged right now. If we underestimated the M’s chances when they were losing to good teams early in the season we shouldn’t overestimate their chances when they’re beating bad teams at the moment. The trouble is that the trading deadline isn’t a moving target: it’s fixed point in time, and that point isn’t right now but a month or so away. Between now and then there are 15 games against teams with better records (NY, Bos, Tor, Det), vs just 3 games against the Angels plus another 3 against the Indians (who are reeling now and may either be recovering like last year or just another bad AL Central team by the end of the month). Plus 3 with Col who has essentially the same record as the M’s (but may be significantly worse than that, given the way the matchup with the NL West has gone so far). Come July 27th, with all those series with winning teams in the books, the M’s chances may look very different.
Nobody is running away with the division, and the M’s appear to be a .500 team more or less, which may be enough to hang in there through the end of the season. But the situation may be looking its very brightest right now. The A’s may get Harden back and healthy for the rest of the season, find some offense from somewhere, and pull away. Even if they don’t, the M’s aren’t likely to have a July (or August) as happy as their June.
I wouldn’t expect the M’s to go all hurt on us – they are a young team, and young position players tend to be more healthy than older ones. This, to me, is the best argument for the M’s being strong in the second half (second best argument: the young players have more experience and confidence). The A’s have the ‘advantage’ of many positions that could use an upgrade, but they are hampered by lack of trade bait and payroll concerns. I see them falling apart in the second half, or at least continuing to be a .500 team. The Rangers have some great bait, if they decide to use it. They also have some guys playing insanely over their heads (Matthews and Laird, for instance) and should regress some. The M’s have the advantage of a glut of outfielders at the upper level, some payroll flexibility, and some clear position upgrades. Go for it.
Choo is a platoon player at this point, and one of the most obvious trade chits. I think his upside is about Jose Cruz Jr. I think he also has a pending military obligation that might be an obstacle.
Any chance the Braves would part with Andrew Jones?
People keep saying that the Mariners have been injury-free while the A’s have been hit by injuries as though that is something that has to balance out. It doesn’t. If it is good luck for the Mariners, it has already happened; it is no more likely that the Mariners will have a rash of injuries and the A’s won’t than it is for things to continue as they are.
Oakland has not even played a game against Boston yet.
FYI Yahoo sports has the Mairners leading the D Backs 6-2 in the bottom of the 8th. It was a 2-2 tie in the forth. A virtual game being played or time warp or what?
Speaking of pitching, does anybody know what it takes for Hargrove to acknowledge Putz as the closer? I heard an after-game interview just a couple of games ago where he stated categorically that Putz wasn’t the closer because “he hasn’t established himself as a closer” (that’s from memory, but I’m quite sure it’s an exact quote). So what exactly does that mean? I got the impression the only way Putz would be a closer in Hargrove’s mind was if some other team called him that. In other words, other coaches are capable of annointing closers but Hargrove is not. A closer can be acquired, but not developed, at least not in the Mariners. Trade Putz to say Minnesota for one game, have him pitch for them in the 9th inning, and on his return he will — through some magic only Hargrove can see — be “established”? Is that how it works?
Our record is articfically inflated by playing the poor teams in the NL West. If we were playing a balanced schedule and would be playing the exact same level of teams in the second half then it would seem reasonable that we would be about a .500 team. However, we are not, all the NL West teams would be way below .500 in the AL and we did a good job of winning the games we should. However, we don’t get those free games in the second half.
Therefore, why can we conclude that we will continue to be .500 (or better) in the second half when our schedule will be much harder? It doesn’t make sense.
Awesome post, Dave. How long until the M’s wise up and hire you as a special assistant for Bavasi? This type of creative thinking is what we need more than anything. Pineiro for Weaver is a move that could actually happen.
Nobody’s expecting them to win at a .708 clip the rest of the season, Joe (the M’s winning percentage for June so far).
That being said, they don’t HAVE to to win this division. This looks like a year where 85-90 wins takes it, barring someone getting super-hot, and where you might have everyone clustering around 80-90 wins. The M’s chances in this scenario are arguably just as good as everyone else’s, given that several players have really underperformed where we thought they would be (King Felix, Sexson, Beltre), and the young players have developed in a way that “surprise” teams generally have them do (our middle infielders).
Dave, by your comments on Reed, I take it you’re down a bit on him- or do you think his recent power surge in June might mean he’s on his way back up?
How do the NL teams factor into the SoS argument? Considering the fact that it seems that about 12 or 13 of them wouldn’t even be .500 in the AL doesn’t the skew the SoS numbers? This is because some might have really good records because they are all playing inferior competition between each other.
Our record is articfically inflated by playing the poor teams in the NL West.
The same teams the rest of the AL West is playing?
Yeah, right.
BLY, do you not understand the point of strength of schedule, or do you think that I just made up the fact that the M’s have had the 12th hardest schedule in baseball to date?
The M’s opponents, through the first 79 games, have been tougher than average.
Think about that for a few minutes, then consider whether you want to change your belief structure.
Our record is articfically inflated by playing the poor teams in the NL West. If we were playing a balanced schedule and would be playing the exact same level of teams in the second half then it would seem reasonable that we would be about a .500 team. However, we are not, all the NL West teams would be way below .500 in the AL and we did a good job of winning the games we should. However, we don’t get those free games in the second half.
Yes, but then, isn’t the same true of the other teams in our division? That’s why the ‘weak competition’ argument holds no water. We’re playing the same teams that Oakland, Texas, and Anaheim are playing, and we’re gaining ground on them.
Therefore, why can we conclude that we will continue to be .500 (or better) in the second half when our schedule will be much harder? It doesn’t make sense.
Because everyone’s getting a chance to play bad NL teams like Pittsburgh or (fill in the blank) right now?
Again- Mariner schedule so far: 12th out of 30 teams. Not stuffed full of cupcakes. Keep in mind there are series against Baltimore, Tampa Bay, KC, Cleveland and the Angels in our future, too, along with the OMGWTFBBQ series against the AL East and Oakland all the pessimists seem to be freaking out about.
This is a winnable division, folks. It’s not 2004 and 2005 where we were dead meat on a stick by this point. Enjoy it instead of worrying about the late July schedule.
Dave:
My point about SoS is that it is typically created by looking at the W/L records of the teams they are playing with and then ranked accordingly. Since the NL is so much worse than the AL doesn’t the fact that one team has a .500 record in the NL mean much less than if we beat someone with a .500 record in the AL?
Dave, by your comments on Reed, I take it you’re down a bit on him- or do you think his recent power surge in June might mean he’s on his way back up?
There’s no getting around the fact that Reed has been a massive disappointment. His approach at the plate has turned to crap, and he’s made negative adjustments to try to compensate for his lack of power.
For whatever reason, he’s added an uppercut to his swing, which exposes him on pitches inside and any fastball 95+.
There’s still talent there, but he’s not using it. Like Beltre, I’m not sure we can ever know what an underachiever is going to do going forward. His talent says he’ll improve, but his talent also said he wouldn’t suck this bad. So who knows.
I’m not willing to give up on him yet, but it’s looking more and more likely that Adam Jones will be this team’s center fielder in a year, and Jeremy Reed with be on the bench, in the minors, or with another club.
All 4 teams in the AL West have played a more difficult than average schedule for the first half of the season. Out of MLB’s 30 teams, Texas (#1 in SoS), Oakland (#4), Angels (#7), and Mariners (#12) are all in the top dozen.
As far as the record goes…
Other than a flukish 1-9 against Oakland, we are sitting at 27-28 against the rest of the AL. And 8 of those 28 losses have been one-run affairs.
Anomalous performance against one team versus strong run differential? I’ll take the run differential.
My point about SoS is that it is typically created by looking at the W/L records of the teams they are playing with and then ranked accordingly. Since the NL is so much worse than the AL doesn’t the fact that one team has a .500 record in the NL mean much less than if we beat someone with a .500 record in the AL?
No, because records are relative. The A’s record, and strength of schedule, includes games against these same teams. So does the Rangers and Angels. The Red Sox have won 11 in a row against Atlanta, Washington, Philadelphia, and the Mets. The Tigers have won 12 of 13 against the Devil Rays, Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, and Astros.
Pretty much every team in the AL is pummeling the NL in interleague play. If you’re going to discount the Mariners record because they’re playing NL clubs, then you have to discount everyone’s record.
Detroit and the White Sox get series against Pittsburgh and Chicago (sub-.400 teams). Oh, and they get KC as a division rival for a bunch of games. That’s a lot of games they’ll play against composite opponents with a total winning percentage around .350.
The Mariners get an NL division pairing and play in an AL division that has a composite record of about .500. Now, tell me who has the easier schedule?
Recent history has suggested we have to devalue any hitting stats for players coming over from the NL.
Jim Thome, Gary Matthews Jr, Ramon Hernandez, Mike Lowell, Lyle Overbay, Shea Hillenbrand, Orlando Cabrera, Mark Loretta, Corey Patterson…. it seems to me there are a lot of examples that contradict this. Is there statistical evidence that National Leaguers switching to the American League over the last couple years have in fact devalued as a group?
Dave:
— Fine I am willing to discount everyone elses record in the AL. That is my point. When the Ms only played the AL they were 9 games under .500 and that should have no bearing on how we will do in the second half of the season when the teams we are 10 games over .500 never appear on our schedule?
I’m not willing to give up on him yet, but it’s looking more and more likely that Adam Jones will be this team’s center fielder in a year, and Jeremy Reed with be on the bench, in the minors, or with another club.
Is Adam Jones going to be READY to be a MLB CF in a year (June 2007), let alone April 2007?
I guess with Jose Lopez’s Great Leap Forward that’s possible, but I also note that Lopez needed about 300 plate appearances in the majors of sucking to become what he is now.
 Fine I am willing to discount everyone elses record in the AL. That is my point. When the Ms only played the AL they were 9 games under .500 and that should have no bearing on how we will do in the second half of the season when the teams we are 10 games over .500 never appear on our schedule?
You’re incorrectly giving 100% of the credit for the M’s performance to the opponent. You’re eliminating any reward for the M’s beating these NL teams because, in your mind, they suck and these games don’t count.
That’s just bad analysis, and it’s leading you to flawed conclusions. You really need to do some more research on the topics we’ve discussed the past few days, because there are some pretty basic concepts that you just don’t grasp.
Is Adam Jones going to be READY to be a MLB CF in a year (June 2007), let alone April 2007?
Depends on your level of expectations. He’s hitting .271/.315/.447 right now (and he’s been a lot better of late). Assuming natural growth, let’s say he could hit .280/.330/.470 in Tacoma in a year, and his defense continues to get more consistent.
That translates to something like .250/.300/.430 in the majors. That’s better than what Reed is giving us now, and there’s obvious natural talent that could help him improve quicker than expected.
But yea, he has the type of skillset that will almost certainly require a struggle in the majors before he adjusts. The M’s know he won’t be a major league all-star at this point next year, but they might not care. You know how Bavasi loves to challenge these kids.
Aaargh…
When the Ms only played the AL they were 9 games under .500
With a Pythagorean record that said they should be a lot better, BTW.
I submit they really are a .500+ team. I’m not sold on June being a realistic level of performance, obviously, but DMZ pegged them with PECOTA at 770 runs scored/750 runs allowed waaaaaay back, which means “about 83 wins”. A little luck and some positive developments gets them a division in this environment.
Dave:
— Guess we will see what happens when we get there. No sense in arguing a point that hasn’t happened yet. Hopefully this isn’t a stretch like when TB went on a tear two years ago to get up to .500. The Ms have always done pretty good against these weaker NL teams…but we can ignore that.
BLYKMYK44, what don’t you understand about the fact that the angels, rangers, and A’s are playing approximately the same schedule as the Mariners? It matters not how NY, Bos, CWW are playing against their NL opponents; we’re fighting within our division for a playoff spot. You don’t need to discount the rest of the AL and how they’ve played the NL, you need to look at the fact that the AL West plays almost identical schedules.
That out of the way… My non-insightful retorical question of the day. Is there anyone here, after seeing the first half of the season, who wouldn’t go back and do the Reed for Papelbon/Lester trade that was discussed this offseason?
 Guess we will see what happens when we get there. No sense in arguing a point that hasn’t happened yet. Hopefully this isn’t a stretch like when TB went on a tear two years ago to get up to .500. The Ms have always done pretty good against these weaker NL teams…but we can ignore that.
Or, we could actually study the issue and come to a logical conclusion. That we can’t know for certain what is going to happen doesn’t mean we should just remain uneducated and have an atmosphere where everyone’s opinions carry the same weight.
If you want people to take you seriously, you just need to learn more.
Yhoo.com MlB game says we won.
Seattle vs.
Arizona 10
3 F
So, is the start of Adam Jones’ major league career likely to resemble that of Jose Lopez, then?
BLY, if you can seriously walk position by position and not think the M’s aren’t significantly improved from 2004/2005…I don’t know what to say. We are playing good young players instead of desiccated corpses in the middle infield, we’re getting production at C instead of having it be a total non-entity, we actually have pitchers who can strike guys out closing instead off relying on guile and a arm attached with crepe paper, we have our first legitimate top of rotation guy since the Big Unit, we still have Ichiro!, and so on.
Really, it’s OK to feel good about 2006. It beats the alternative.
Sure, we could fall back and end up 78-84 when it’s all said and done. Or we could look at the results in front of us and be encouraged. All in how you look at the glass.
So, is the start of Adam Jones’ major league career likely to resemble that of Jose Lopez, then?
Lopez is a better hitter than Jones. Higher contact rates all through the minors, similar power numbers. I think it could look a lot more like the early seasons of Torii Hunter, Juan Encarnacion, or Jose Guillen.
That’s the kind of hitter Jones is going to be.
Sure, we could fall back and end up 78-84 when it’s all said and done. Or we could look at the results in front of us and be encouraged. All in how you look at the glass.
Since that’s about a nine game improvement (which I’d be more than happy with), I’d say it’s a half-full, half-full argument.
I usually only read this site, but I feel the need to contribute something…
The idea that the Mariners have an inflated record only because they are beating up on the lowly NL West is a very poor point to make. Here’s why: The Mariners, yes, are beating up the NL West. However, the other three teams in the AL West are losing to this same division. Oakland is 7-7 against the NL West. Texas is an embarassing 5-8 (!), and the Angels are only 5-10…all against the NL West. This isn’t like every AL West team is thriving on the fresh meat of the NL West. The fact is that the Mariners are playing the same teams and are simply playing them at a higher level than the rest of this division.
Also, the thought that Oakland is in the midst of making their traditional run up the division is also a bad point to make. After their amazing 10-0 run, they’ve gone 3-5 since…all against the NL West. Hardly the ascent some people expected the Athletics to make.
The only fault the Mariners have record-wise right now is going 1-9 heads-up versus Oakland. That kind of record will not last the rest of the season.
Now, I know this is only talking records and isn’t taking into account any other statistic. However, it is a point that I felt hasn’t quite been articulated to date.
Have there been any updated reports on how Jones’ glove is progressing in CF. If he eventually turns into a Mike Cameron type of player at the plate (decent power but high SO rate) and his glove doesn’t kill us, that seems like a reasonable filler if Reed never comes around.
I’m not even sure it’s all in how you look at the glass. Why look through glasses at all? The M’s are over .500, close to the division lead, and players are playing well. I’m not saying to prepare the voctory route, but my take on this situation is:
What time is tonight’s game? Cause I want to watch. Because I am beginning to expect a Mariner win. And if they lose tonight, I’ll expect a Mariner win tomorrow. I’m not really thinking abot winning the division, playoff rotation, or anything like that. Sure, we can win the division. I believe it. But it is not my focus. I love watching baseball. I have always loved it. But now, I am beginning to actually enjoy it again.
Do I really have to explain myself with numbers and reasons and facts? I would think it is pretty clear right now.
A lot of reasonable folks thought this could be a .500 team before the season started. The M’s have had limited success against above-.500 teams, and have been able to beat the snot out of a lot of below-.500 teams, resulting overall in a record near .500.
The rest of the AL West is at about .500, or in the case of the Angels, below .500. Adding a couple of players could improve the team, making it an above .500 team, and thus in a reasonably good position to win the division.
This doesn’t seem complicated to me at all.
Jose Guillen? Yikes. His first good year was his age 27 year. Two teams AFTER the one he came up with. Juan Encarnacion’s not a really encouraging comp, either- not very good until age 26. Torii Hunter’s much the same: his first good year’s 25, then he goes boom at 26. Mike Cameron’s kinda like that too, if you look at it: didn’t really blossom until age 26 (good year at age 24, total regression at 25).
That’s a lot of waiting, since this is his age 21 year this year…
#93 – sounds like last night’s game. You might see if Felix was pitching. It’s unlikely they’d run him out there 2 days in a row.
Guillen was a corner OF, though, so expectations for his bat were necessarily higher.
If Jones hits .260/.310/.440 in Safeco and plays a legitimate terrific defensive center field, then he’s a valuable player, much the same way Betancourt is helping the M’s right now despite posting a .730 OPS.
EC,
I assumed what dave meant was that you would expect Jones first few major league seasons to look like the from Hunter or Guillen. Not that he would wait until he was 27 to put up those numbers. Since he’s younger, he’ll probably sustain higher numbers for longer.
The other thing is that Encarnacion, Guillen and Cameron (as comps to Jones) all had their original organizations give up on them before they blossomed, and Hunter was with the Twins, who really tend to stick with their organizational guys for a LOOOOONG time (since they aren’t shelling out $ for FAs, they sort of have to).
I really hope that doesn’t mean we bring up Jones in 2007 and watch him post a .245/.295/.300 line through 2010, and then package him in some deal for a lesser talent after 1300 or so AB’s of struggling, thinking “eh, he’s never going to blossom”…and watch him explode somewhere else. Maybe he really WOULD be better off in AAA in 2007.
If you want to feel encouraged, he could also be Preston Wilson or Ron Gant.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wilsopr01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gantro01.shtml
The outfielder comps all more or less make sense. I was mostly bringing up Lopez as someone else that struggled in his first couple shots at the majors. Jones will certainly strike out more than that, no question.
Er, that should be “watch him post a .245/.295/.400 line”.
Though Corey Patterson isn’t the exact same TYPE of player (LH hitter), he kind of fits the mold- good athlete in OF that is taking a while to really take off on his major league career, a lot of ugly strikeout numbers, team ended up losing patience.
That’d be my concern about handing Jones a job in 2007, that these types of players really tend to struggle badly in their early 20′s in the majors, that you really, REALLY need to be patient (as in “this could take a thousand at bats to pay off the way we think it will”)- and you might be better off trading a year at age 28-29 under your control than a year at age 22-23. This could be a case where giving him another full year at AAA might be preferable if the M’s could come up with a decent plan for 2007.
Then again, there might not BE a decent fallback plan for 2007, especially if Reed is hitting at marginal 4th OF levels.
Actually, only 5 of 14 AL teams are pummeling NL opponents: Bos 13-1, CWS 12-2, Det 13-2, Min 13-2, Sea 12-2. The rest of the league is 62-64.
It may be tempting to make generalizations from the 127-75 aggregate interleague record, but the fact is five individual teams have been playing really well, and they all happen to be AL teams.
Since this discussion has moved onto Adam Jones and his potential replacement of Reed… what types of numbers do we need to see from Reed to justify his starting position? I don’t have any idea of what is expected from a decent fielding CF.
Dave, I’ll just point out that Torii Hunter and Preston Wilson didn’t play fulltime until age 24, and Gant had a massive regression year after a good year at 23 (much like Cammy and some other players mentioned)- the difference being the Braves weren’t stupid and didn’t give up on him at that point (some of that might be his position switch to 3B, too). So I’m still not convinced after looking at this set of comps that handing a MLB CF job to Adam Jones at 22 isn’t taking some risks developmentally…so I’d be looking for another decent option in CF for 2007 come the offseason if I was convinced Reed wasn’t going to cut it, and would be happy with Jones getting more time in Tacoma in 2007.
I concede, though. that depending on what the M’s can do this offseason, that might not be possible.
I’m comparing Jones to these guys based on skillsets moreso than development arcs. The fact that Jones is developing faster than those guys did is a good thing – it doesn’t mean he’s doomed to stall out for several years before he gets to 24-25.
Jones is several years ahead of Wilson, Hunter, and Cameron on the development arc. He’s better at age 21 than any of them were. Preston Wilson, at age 21, was a terrible hitter who hadn’t gotten out of low-A ball.
So, yes, I agree, bringing up Jones next year has risks, and he’s likely to have some struggles at the major league level, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into the age thing. Jones at 21 is where those guys were at 23-24. He’s ahead of that curve.
I just wanted to make a point on the original post: Doyle’s doubles in Cheney might very well have been home runs in other parks that don’t have 200-foot-tall outfield walls, couldn’t they? I’ve gotten the impression Tacoma’s a pretty difficult place to hit home runs in, though I might be wrong.
OK, so who’s a better comp? Usually, further along developmental arc at younger age = better player. Andruw Jones? Eric Davis?
He’s way behind Andruw. Andruw was an uberprospect. At age 19, he hit .313/.417/.605 in high-A, was promoted to Double-A and hit .369/.434/.675, then ended the year in Triple-A hitting .378/.395/.822.
He was something else. Of course, it still took him two years to become a good hitter in the majors, so he’s a good cautionary tale for people who want to get too excited about Jones.
Davis was way ahead of Jones too. His minor league numbers were awesome.
If we’re just doing a developmental arc comp, and not a skillset comp, how about Carl Crawford. .297/.335/.456 in Triple-A at age 21, fantastic athlete, poor plate discipline.
Jones has a lot more power than Crawford did, though, so I wouldn’t expect Jones to slug .370 his first two years.
I think Reed will turn it around, but his strange approach at the plate in recent games is a little concerning.
When he first came up he was spraying the ball around and looked like he knew what he was doing.
Lately he’s flailing at pitches that he must have decided to swing at before they were released. We’ll see.
I still think we should trade for Antonio Alfonseca. He’s a middle reliever who usually pitches very well, plus I don’t think his salary is very high.
That said, it would be helpful to have someone who was more effective than Pineiro taking the hill every five days. Cha Baek has less stuff than Pineiro and would be a batting practice pitcher in the majors, so again, any upgrade probably has to come from outside the organization.
I thought one of the strenghts of the M’s farm system was their young pitching? Are those days well gone? I’ve not been playing close attention but what happenned to the guys we got for Randy Winn and couple other guys from Marlins last year. Have they seen the end of the tunnel already?
I still think we should trade for Antonio Alfonseca. He’s a middle reliever who usually pitches very well, plus I don’t think his salary is very high.
Antonio Alfonseca, 2006: 16 IP, 8 H, 3 HR, 7 BB, 5 K, 5.63 ERA, 6.24 FIP, 5.36 xFIP
Yea, I’ll pass, thanks. Texas might trade him to us as an act of sabotage.
Fair enough, Dave, Davis and Andruw Jones always drew more walks in the minors.
OTOH, Eric Davis also didn’t win a fulltime job in the majors until age 24, and was in A ball at the same age Adam Jones is at now.
I think I’d be happy with something around Mike Cameron, if we got down to it. Cameron didn’t learn how to walk until he was 21.
Brian Rust makes a really good point. 5 AL teams have combined to go 63-9 in interleague play. They are the sole cause for the aggregate differential.
63-9 is a sick winning percentage.
Sheehan wrote an article about it yesterday – pretty much the first genuinely good article he’s written in years.
Hmm, maybe Eric Davis and Adam Jones aren’t as far apart as I thought.
Age 20 years, Davis in A ball, Jones in high A/AA, from Sports-Wired.com
Davis: .276/.357/.449, 51/103 BB/K, 40 XBH in 434 AB
Jones: .297/.374/.479, 51/112 BB/K, 53 XBH in 499 AB
That doesn’t look like incredibly different skillsets at the same age. If anything, you’d want the guy getting those numbers in A/AA, unless there’s a huge, massive park effect lurking. I know the Cal League is pretty bad at inflating numbers, but still…
Davis did have a better year the year before- but he was repeating a short season rookie league he had struggled in the year before, whereas Jones was in A ball after a cup of coffee in the NWL and A ball time.
Isn’t Jones 20?
since a couple people mentioned the game score on Yahoo – their data is all messed up right now. Theyve been showing the prior day’s games as the current day’s games for a couple days now. The news panels on my home page on yahoo are also either empty or partially out of date. I sent a help message in but no response/improvement yet. Make sure you get your baseball scores elsewhere in the meantime!
Don’t forget the era adjustment, EC.
EC, Dave, all the people who are saying Jones is 21/was 20 last year.
Thebaseballcube.com and milb both list his birthdate as August 1, 1985. Unless there’s something that I’m missing, this is his age-20 season, not his age-21 season.
Adam Jones turned 20 on August 1, 2005. Eric Davis turned 20 on May 29, 1982. Sports-Wired listed them as 20 for those years (2005 and 1982, respectively).
It seems to me SOME of the differential between Jones and Davis, then, is that Jones is getting pushed through the system a lot faster than Davis was. Davis went on do well in the Eastern League over the head repeatedly in AA (.290/.421/.495) for his age 21 year, then started getting time in the AAA and generally kicking ass (cup of coffee at age 21, and totally owning the league for parts of age 22 and 23 before sticking at age 24- note that one of his AAA seasons was at altitude in Denver, though).
Oh, and Davis’s OBPs while he was in the majors at age 22/23? .320 and .287. Hmmm. Hit for decent power, though (.466 and .515). And that was in the 1980′s, when a .500 SLG really MEANT something.
One other thing to note is Adam Jones played in 130 and 131 games his last two full years. Eric Davis’s career high: 135, in a 162 game season.
I would like to conclude that Dave is probably the real expert here, but I’d be pretty happy with someone between Mike Cameron and Eric Davis as a hitter playing CF for us.
Don’t forget the era adjustment, EC.
Is there a lot more power in the minors than there was 20 years ago? I know that the stats in the PCL in the early to mid-80′s were just silly, for instance- guys like Mike Marhsall and Sid Bream put up some pretty sick stats in Alberquerque and then came to the majors as very “eh” players. You had to seriously deflate them. Calgary had that problem too, sometimes.
119- For Randy Winn we got a pitcher (Jesse Foppert) and a catcher (Yorvit Torreabla.) Yorvit was traded late last year to the Rockies for Marcus Carvajal and Foppert is struggling in Tacoma. Not the best trade.
How much does Winn cost now?
120- Dave, don’t forget that Alfonseca is pitching in hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field. Therefore his era would go way down in “The Safe.”
Lemme put this another way, Dave…
If Adam Jones can put up numbers between Mike Cameron and Eric Davis NOT adjusted for era (because Davis adjusted for era would be at something like .600 SLG, even spending half the time at Safeco), like a .280/.350/.550 line in a couple of years with stellar defense, I’ll gladly suffer through a year or two of “ugh”.
Oh, me too. Obviously. I’d be fine with Torii Hunter’s career. Eric Davis? Yes please, I’ll take two.
And Alfonseca would suck in every park in America. He’s done.
Sports-wired/baseball cube goes with the older age whenever a player has a birthday in the season.
It’s a minor point, but when BA/BP/Sickels/other prospect analysts do their thing, they generally use July 1 as the cutoff for age-demarcated seasons.
Jones will play 4 months of this minor league season as a 20-year-old and 1 month as someone who can legally drink.
Calgary had that problem too, sometimes.
Foothills Stadium sits about 3200 feet above sea level, in a fairly dry climate. I can imagine hitting there was pretty fun.
Though, the prevailing wind (which is often pretty stiff) should have been blowing in from right-centre (assuming the field still faces the same direction – I’m using Google maps).
A good addition to the bullpen would be Rheal Cormier. He’s a proven veteran with a low salary who has a 1.35 era this year.
I think the M’s should sign Alfonseca just so we can hear Rizzs babble on and on about how he has 11 fingers!
Yes, can we please have a version of Eric Davis that can play a full season? God that would be dreamy!
Andruw was an uberprospect. At age 19, he hit .313/.417/.605 in high-A, was promoted to Double-A and hit .369/.434/.675, then ended the year in Triple-A hitting .378/.395/.822.
That’s a pretty freakin’ amazing age-19 season. Wow.
I think we need to be more aggressive than Jeff Weaver…..Lets get a legit starter that could be used in the playoffs……Does anyone think that Pinero would be serviceable as a middle reliever?…could he muster up some more velocity if he only worked for an inning or two at a time…I remember when he came up he was very effective but he had a lot better stuff back then
woot! go pads!!! tied oakland in the 9th
That’s a pretty freakin’ amazing age-19 season. Wow.
Yea. Andruw was named the top prospect in all three leagues he played in that year, the only guy to ever accomplish that feat.
And he wasn’t even the consensus best prospect in baseball after that. Vladimir Guerrero hit .360/.432/.612 in Double-A as a 20-year-old. He had 59 extra base hits and a 51/42 BB/K.
Andruw and Vlad in 1996 both had seasons that were among the best of all time for a prospect. With A-Rod’s 1994 season, they’re the three best individual performances by a hitting prospect I remember following as they happened.
These guys were all special, and we knew it very early on.
It looks like Oakland gave it to them, with a couple of walks and an error in the bottom of the 9th.
Pineiro might be a servicable middle reliever, but he would also be one of the highest paid middle relievers in the game, and even then, how much better could he be? he seems to get hit in bunchs, and we all know hargrove likes to use crappiest pitchers when the games on the line, especially the veterans. piniero in the bullpen would just scare me
Rangers lose; M’s are now tied for 2nd! Who’da thunk it?
I know that the stats in the PCL in the early to mid-80’s were just silly, for instance- guys like Mike Marhsall and Sid Bream put up some pretty sick stats in Alberquerque and then came to the majors as very “eh†players. You had to seriously deflate them. Calgary had that problem too, sometimes.
El Paso. 3700 feet above sea level. They always dominated the Texas League in hitting and produced some big hitters that flopped in Milwaukee, most notably John Jaha.
I don’t think any minor league venue could beat Calgary for producing “eh” players. Maybe Vancouver.
If anyone compares to Eric Davis, it’s Arizona’s Chris Young (not to be confused with San Diego’s incarnation). Young is by far and away the most awesome prospect you’ve never really heard that much about. I keep hearing Mike Cameron comparisons, but those reports really don’t give Young enough credit, in all honesty. And I say that even though I adore Mike Cameron.
Woohoo! Second place. And we could be a game out of first if we sweep!
Is it time to trade Gil Meche yet?
San Diego just used Chan Ho Park as a pinch hitter. With a career batting line of 185/218/244. Though he’s 9 for 26 this year.
oakland goes ahead in the 14th on a BLBB.
Are you serious? That’s exactly the same “analysis” as removing Ryan Franklin’s crappy starts: remove the data points that don’t support your point, and voila, the data works! What exactly does “AL minus the teams playing well vs. NL” purport to measure? That the also-rans in the AL hold their own against everybody in the NL?
Hey, let’s remove the best five teams from the NL’s record also (9-3 Colorado, 8-7 Florida and 8-7 San Francisco, 7-7 San Diego and 6-6 Milwuakee) and what do we get: 40-97, a .292 winning percentage. If your metric is “how are all the also-rans playing”, there you go. Here’s the real point: these are small sample sizes, but those small samples say that the NL stinks on ice this year.
Oh, and for the people saying that the M’s have played a crappy NL West – the NL West is 29-35, compared to 24-42 for the NL East and 24-50 for the NL Central.
And to go along with 153, that’s with the Mariners pummelling everyone.
Nice, long AB by Dan Johnson.
Cassidy’s definitely not all there this evening, though. BB, HBP, IBB, BB. Way to make ‘em earn that run!
Way to lose it, San Diego. Cameron gets doubled off second on a lineout.
A name that hasn’t been mentioned yet is Mark Redman.
He’s a servicebale enough pitcher whose recent stretch (14 earned runs in nearly 34 innings, five stragiht wins for the frickin’ ROYALS) show that he’s got a quality arm. He’s put up decent enough career numbers at Safeco- 3.26 ERA in 39 innings. And his $.5 mil contract would be cheaper than the Weaver option of the M’s were looking for a team to dump Pineiro onto. Bonus is his 3-0 career record versus the A’s, even with a 4.35 ERA.
KC might seem like baseball’s current wasteland, but it wouldn’t be such a bad place for a pitcher to restart his career. With the hitters KC has coming up through the system (Gordon, Butler)plus the promise of Grienke and a new front office management, I’d wonder if Pineiro would look forward to being traded to KC. Plus he’d be reacquainted with Bobby Madritsch, if he’s ever able to pitch again in the majors. I’d like Pineiro to succeed no matter where he lands, and I’d even like to see him succeed in Seattle. It’s apparent that’s not happening.
Redman would be the perfect arm for a stretch drive, a la Andy Benes in ’95…
There hasn’t been much said about Aubrey Huff. The D-Rays want to move him before the deadline and are in search of pitching, they might fall sucker to Livingston, Baek, Cruceta, Foppert, etc. I’m not sure what kind of market is out there for Huff, but I assume Detroit or the Yankees are after him.
Huff makes something like 6.75 million this year, so there’s 3-4 million left on that, if I recall correctly.
I got excited when Jason Johnson got DFA’d thinking the M’s might make a push for him. Of course, leave it to the Red Sox to make that hope go away. That could have solved some problems, I’d much prefer Johnson as the 5th starter.
Potential Bullpen arm: LaTroy Hawkins
Baltimore is out of it, Hawkins is expensive for what he does, but signed to a modest 4 millionish dollar deal that expires at the end of this year. Perfect rental option.
Aubrey Huff’s OPS’s per year, from 2003 to 2006:
.922
.853
.749
.703
Carl Everett’s OPS in 2006: .697
Huff’s 29, and showing signs of Early Old Player Disease that hit Ben Greive, Alvin Davis and Jim Presley. Pass.
I’m not locking into a longterm commitment here, Huff is a second half guy historically, has gotten it done in June, and The D-Ray are looking to move him. It’s just an idea.
I’d rather just see Doyle brought up myself, but, it’s the Mariners front office after all.
I know I’m going to be flamed to a crisp for speaking a word against the beloved Doyle, but I seriously don’t think he’s the answer in left. Maybe DH, but not left. Personally, I’m skeptical about him at any position on a major league roster, but that’s fodder for another post.
I say let’s go get Carl Crawford. Send Pinero, Choo, another body, or cash to Tampa. We get a consistent hitter and base stealer who’s not going to shatter the first time he dives for a ball or rounds first base.
Then, much as I hate to say this because I’ve thought much higher of him than most everyone else here, I’d deal Raul to the Yanks for pitching. I love the guy, and it’s been one of the highlights of hte season to watch all the “experts” here chow down on heapin’ helpin’s of crow. Still, Rauuuul is undoubtedly at the high-water mark of his career. New York needs outfield help, and Raul’s a homeboy from Manhattan. We get maximum value by trading him now.
Seriously, what do we have to lose? A chance at a .510 season and a pummeling in the first round of the playoffs? I’m not saying blow the whole lineup to hell, but we have a chance now to seriously upgrade for this season and next.
Oh, and if someone would take Everett for a ferry ride and push him overboard, I’ll buy the garlic fries.
Jeff Weaver is about to be DFAed to make room for his brother.
Who did we get for Randy Winn again? I sure wish he was still in left and Ibanez was DH.
Why do “we” believe Crawford is available? He’s Tampa Bay’s best player and is only 24. And why do we think we can get someone (other than a salary dump) for Pineiro and Choo. Heck, those guys wouldn’t get us Perez, much less Crawford. Have we really fallen to let’s trade our junk/useless parts for some other team’s stars?
Winn: Torrealba and Foppert, then Caraval for Torrealba