The A’s aren’t that good
It seems that a large percentage of the baseball watchinig public has a hard time accepting that statement. The A’s are still the darlings of the sabermetric community, and for reasons that I never totally understood, most national writers labeled them as World Series contenders. In their staff predictions article, every author of Baseball Prospectus polled selected the A’s to finish first or second in the division, and the Mariners third or fourth.
In Joe Sheehan’s AL West preview, he put the A’s down for 101 wins and the Mariners 76. Included in the preview was the statement “The A’s are the best team in baseball.”
80 games into the season, it’s pretty obvious that the A’s abilities were well overstated.
The A’s offense is, to be kind, lousy. Nick Swisher is having a breakout year and should get consideration for the all-star game. Frank Thomas still has walks and homers, if not much else, and Eric Chavez is a good enough hitter to be valuable, even if he’ll never win the MVP that his talent could allow. After that, it’s rough.
Bobby Crosby, who was Peter Gammons pick for MVP before the season started, has a .690 OPS, lower than Yuniesky Betancourt’s. Jay Payton is hitting worse than Carl Everett. Milton Bradley is hitting worse than Jay Payton. And Jason Kendall is slugging .320, a mark so astonishingly bad that it’s hard to believe he’s still a major league starter. Mark Ellis and Marco Scutaro are automatic outs this year as well.
The A’s essentially have one very good hitter, two okay hitters (one of whom is chronically hurt and can’t run), a guy who should be a good hitter but isn’t right now, and a whole lot of crap. They’re averaging 4.45 runs/game, which just isn’t anything close to enough runs for a team that was called the best in baseball before the season.
However, everyone didn’t love the A’s because of their hitters. They loved them because of their starting rotation. Zito, Harden, Haren, Blanton, and Loaiza was hailed as the best rotation in baseball, and they had depth in guys like Saarloos, Halsey, and Kennedy, in case of injuries.
Zito and Haren have lived up to expectations, and both are among the best pitchers in the AL. Rich Harden has been limited to 35 innings, and with his injury history, has essentially become the A’s version of Doyle. Blanton has pitched the same as he did last year, but his luck ran out, and now his poor peripherals have made his ERA line up with the mediocre stuff that he has. And Esteban Loaiza started the year pitching hurt and has been a disaster.
The depth hasn’t been effective either. Kirk Saarloos is posting a 4.57 ERA despite a 6.35 FIP, and he’s walking well more than he’s striking out. Halsey has been slightly better, but still a replacement level starter. And Joe Kennedy has thrown 12 innings due to shoulder problems of his own.
So, the A’s have basically had two good starting pitchers, one innings eater who isn’t awful but isn’t very good, and a rotation crop of awfulness. The vaunted bullpen has also been significantly worse, as Huston Street’s giving up longballs at an average rate instead of his ridiculous rate of last year and has already blown 6 saves.
Put it together, and you have a team that can’t score and can only sorta pitch. Thus, you have a team that is in first place despite scoring three more runs than they’ve allowed.
The A’s, for all their vaunted second half runs of the past, built those great teams on great players. Looking at this roster, there just aren’t enough great players for the A’s to put together another stretch of .700 baseball like they have the past few years. Their team’s chances essentially depend on Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby returning to full health and playing up to expectations, because without those two performing at all-star levels, this team just isn’t very good.
The A’s aren’t a bad team. But they’re nothing close to the best team in baseball. They aren’t even the best team in the American League West.
There’s no reason to be afraid of the A’s. The Mariners are a better team, even if the national writers will take months to figure that out.
Would you be more concerned about the Rangers at this point?
It’s the whole Billy Beane aura and the carryover of developing several good players. The organization would be legitimately the best in baseball had they not had to give away Giambi, Mulder, Hudson, Miggy, etc.
Dave,
This is a great post. There is a chance the A’s put together some 4-5 game winning streaks with the right opponents and pitching matchups (as well as some good play from some of the underperformers you list), but they aren’t going to play at a .700 clip. The M’s probably won’t keep winning 8/10, but we don’t need to. If the A’s series are not more competitive, then it’s psychological on the M’s part. That said, we don’t have to be lights-out against the A’s with the number of games we have left against them, as long as the team keeps looking anywhere close to how they look now.
Given what you’ve said, isn’t now (or very soon) the time to start adding the pieces you discussed yesterday?
Bavasi is at least talking the talk (but he always seems to). Although this is from the Go 2 Guy, I look at it as positive:
“‘We’re taking that approach,’ [Bavasi] said, adding that the Mariners, as of today, are buyers, looking to strengthen themselves before the trade deadline on July 31.”
The following qualifies more as wishful thinking than good analysis, but it strikes me that the nationwide blinders regarding the A’s would be a lot less restrictive if the Mariners hadn’t, to this point, performed so abominably in head-to-head play with the A’s. You can’t take games out of your record, but for a moment, take out that 1-9 (or 9-1, depending on your perspective), and what have you got?
One team playing 40-30 ball against the rest of baseball, another team playing 33-35 ball against the rest of baseball.
Going forward, I’ll take the odds that the Mariners turn it around against Oakland over the odds that Oakland turns it around against the rest of the league.
It hurts to think we are the only reason the A’s are above .500. Talk about having your fate in your own hands.
Get thee to a nunnery…or at least apologize for your blasphemy…
Great analysis. I’m starting to get excited now, especially after a game like last night’s. I know it’s early, but it’s almost a little 1995-ish to me right now. Is it possible that all this team needed was a little confidence and now that they’ve caught fire they will become a force?
Would you be more concerned about the Rangers at this point?
Yes, what about the Rangers? Taking a glance at Baseball Prospectus’ adjusted standings, the A’s and the Mariners are essentially identical, but by third-order wins and losses, they think the Rangers should be a full 4-1/2 games ahead of both of us. The Rangers, even now that they’re in third place, are still quoted a better percentage chance of winning the division than either of us.
The Rangers are a flawed team in their own way, of course, but I think they may have more options at compensating for those flaws. And Teixeira hasn’t even really started hitting home runs yet this year.
Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, and since we were discussing his development arc at some length yesterday, Kevin Goldstein has a profile of Adam Jones (no subscription required). Nothing especially new to most of us, probably, but a nice piece.
I would not necessarily be too afriad of Texas, it seems just as the A’s take off every year in the second half, the Rangers have a tendancy to fall off the map. It cannot be easy to sustain a team playing in an outdoor stadium, in the summer, in TEXAS! Guys get run down, catchers get tired, pitching diminishes… And when you are a team who is as thin as Texas has historically been in the pitching aspect, you cannot afford to be run down. Texas may be wilting starting now
I’m sure the A’s’ national reputation is enhanced by the fact they’re 6-3 against the Yankees. If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere, or so they say.
Someone observed a couple of weeks ago that if it weren’t for Seattle, Blanton would be in Sacramento. His ERA is 4.85 overall, 0.78 against Seattle and 6.09 against everyone else. Do you suppose the Mariners hitters have him on their video iPods?
I think Everett will be batting in the coming homestand with the knowledge his job’s on the line. A platoonish LF with good leather should be the top priority to add. I just hope Ibañez handles the “demotion” to DH like the professional class act the Mariners brass tells us he is.
The big concern with the A’s, to me at least, is now how good they are now, but how good they will be in August. If we don’t put some serious distance between us and them in July, Beane’s virtually guaranteed to go out and pick up something that his team needs. I don’t have that same assurance with Bavasi.
I, too, would like to hear Dave’s thoughts on the Rangers.
The A’s aren’t, but I think it’s pretty clear the best team in the division so far has been Texas.
Speaking of BP, thier post-season odds report has some interesting tidbits:
The Rangers are essentially a .550 team, which isn’t great, but the M’s are only at .507 (A’s = .508). I’d definitely call the Rangers the biggest hurdle to the post-season right now.
The NL only has 1 team above a .520 3rd order WP. The whole league is weak. The Mariners had a fantastic June because they were playing weak opponents. There are precious few pushovers in the AL this year (Royals, D-Rays, O’s are the only teams under .500). Expecting a record significantly over .500 for the rest of the year out of the M’s is pushing the limits of reality. Fortunately, with a projected 85-87 wins being all it takes to take the AL West, it’s possible.
The big questions for the next 3 months:
Is Meche for real?
Which Beltre shows up?
Does the team make any moves to shore up the pitching?
Is Sexson done?
Do we get any production out of CF and DH?
That’s not a good list to have for a team trying to compete. It will take a few breaks to get there. Go team!
Of course, Billy Beane is way ahead of all of us and likely will pull off all sorts of sly trades to address their weaknesses. He may not be able to put together a World Series lock this year, so he may settle for winning the division and hoping for some luck. Beane is a master at figuring out what he truly needs and getting others to help him fix those needs. If, for example, he can help broker a deal for the Yankees to get what they need, he’ll do it to get something that either helps him or helps someone else who has something that will help him.
I agree that Texas is more of a danger for winning the division than Oakland, although the Mariners’ lack of depth is also a real danger. The fact that Texas often performs poorly in the second half isn’t really that much of a hope. This fate seems to befall them more often than most teams but this hasn’t prevented Texas from managing to win a few division titles in the past ten years, and I think about as many as the M’s have. I still remember 1996 when Mitch in the Morning and the Fisherman were calling up a Texas sports radio station and chanting, “Rangers-Rangers-Rangers-Chokers-Chokers-Chokers,” and then seeing Texas win the division. At this point even a Pennant race would be pretty exciting and probably be good PR for recruiting both fans and free agents but I’m not getting my hopes up for a Texas collapse. Every once in a while they put everything together.
The NL only has 1 team above a .520 3rd order WP. The whole league is weak. The Mariners had a fantastic June because they were playing weak opponents.
Actually, I’d say, “The Mariners had a fantastic June because they were playing weak opponents AND BEATING THEM, while the rest of the AL West didn’t.”
You pick up games where you can; the order of business in July and August is to pick up games THERE, no matter how strong or weak the opponents are.
#17, agreed. All we need to do is look at the AL West’s records in interleague play. The M’s are just playing better baseball than the rest of the AL West.
Living in San Francisco it becomes twice as fun to cheer for the Giants when they’re sweeping the Rangers. Go G-Men.
I’ll believe it when i see the M’s take 2 out of 3 from them next time they meet. Until then, the A’s are the top of the Division because the M’s haven’t beat them…..yet.
No, the A’s are the top of the division because they’ve won more games.
Doesn’t matter if the As go 17-1 against the Ms, if the Ms end the season with more total wins than the As.
#11 – I think Raul will be fine with it. The man wants to win and I think he may be dismayed by it at first, but I don’t expect him to stop performing at the high levels he’s given us over the years.
- Great post, Dave. It articulates a lot of stuff I put in a comment yesterday that was lost to Comcast’s servers. I was responding to Derek’s comment that much of this depends on what Beane and Oakland do. They just don’t scare me as much. They have few tradeable pieces outside of Zito, whose removal would make them worse this year. Yes, Beane is a fantastic molder of trades, particularly multi-team trrades, but I just don’t see him pulling it off this year, or the Oakland team playing long stretches of .700+ baseball (or even .600+).
- Yes, I would be more worried about Texas, but agree with those who’ve already pointed out how hard it is to sustain a run playing in the 115-degree heat of a Texas summer. And, as it always is,
- Richie Sexson is not only not done (though he may be in early stages of decline), he is just starting to heat up. His OPS for June? .883, and 1.000 over the past seven days. He may not be able to hit for much more than a .250 BA, but if he starts trading a few K’s for BB’s, and begins driving the ball when he does make contact, we won’t be disappointed.
- While I have to acknowledge that we can’t know for sure whether Good Adrian or Bad Adrian will show up from here on out, I’d lay my money on Good Adrian based on the groove he’s got going right now. .314/.375/.588 in June. WOW.
- Other nearly .900 to 1.000+ OPS performers for June: Ibanez, Johjima, Ichiro. Our middle infield would both be at .800 OPS with another bleeder, or more realistically, any patience at the plate. Wait, maybe that isn’t so realistic — yet.
- While I hope with all my heart for a pennant, I would be very satisfied with just being in a pennant race. That looks damn likely.
- More importantly, there is a lot of reason for long-term optimism. Great youth already performing up the middle. Felix. Johjima looking like the real deal in his prime, with Clement and Rob Johnson in the wings. Felix. Beltre is only 27, fergawdssake. Maybe this is less a bipolar performance thing, and more a player who has already shown flashes of brilliance finally putting it together as he enters his peak years. Ibanez and Ichi show no signs of slowing, nor (for that matter) does Jamie. Soriano! Sherrill! Putz! Only Reed continues to struggle, and even he has shown some signs of improvement in short bursts. And Adam Jones awaits, if he doesn’t get it turned around.
GO M’S!
“Yes, I would be more worried about Texas, but agree with those who’ve already pointed out how hard it is to sustain a run playing in the 115-degree heat of a Texas summer. And, as it always is, . . .”
Oops, the dreaded unfinished sentence, which should read “And, as it always is, pitching is a REAL issue for them. Do you think Kevin Millwood wishes he had picked somewhere other than Texas right abotu now? He’s the best they have, and he’s not faring too well at home….
The A’s may not be that good. Neither are the M’s. Currently they are playing .500 ball versus the AL East and under .500 against the other two AL divisions. It’s only the win fattening 13-2 run versus the weak NL that has them where they are now. The gravy train ends Sunday. I’m not going to get excited until September and even then _if_ they are still in the hunt for the AL West it’s going to do little good if management doesn’t go out and get pieces to plug the holes that will virtually guarantee a three and out in the playoffs. I have no expectations of that happening. Maybe the LF hitting machine Al Martin can be coaxed out of retirement and that will save both money and prospects but give the illusion that management is doing something.
’m not going to get excited until September…
Suit yourself, but I’m getting excited now. See, I follow sports teams because it makes me happy. I have enough stuff to worry about.
Millwood’s still outpitching Washburn. By a lot. Just saying.
I think this is a year much like 1998- where Texas won it with 88 wins.
Also: Jeff Weaver got DFA’ed (which means they’d eat his contract in the end), so I suspect their willingness to take Piñeiro so they can dump him instead…not so much.
It’s only the win fattening 13-2 run versus the weak NL that has them where they are now.
So, the fact that the A’s aren’t getting fat against those SAME TEAMS and are 8-7 instead of 13-2 is irrelevant, then?
Weaver got DFA’ed eh?
Will Bavasi pull the trigger and pick him up.
EC – I didn’t say Millwood was worse than Washburn or any of his pitchers, just that (despite being Texas’ best pitcher) he’s struggling some at home. You would get no argument from me that Millwood in an M’s uniform would be far preferable to Washburn, and I think he’d like pitching here much better.
And Harold – Loosen up and enjoy this for a bit, willya? Acknowledge that the M’s of April and May looked far different from the team we are watching now. Some of that can be playing weak competition, but this is still baseball — even when you play crappy teams, if you are also as bad as you claim the M’s are, you’re gonna lose more than the M’s have. [And of course, that ignores the fact that the rest of our competition hasn't exactly lit up the NL West.]
Take it game-by-game. Enjoy the moment, ’cause we’ve been forced to wallow in sub-mediocrity for far too long.
Uhh, that would be OUR pitchers. Oops, and sorry (again).
One other thing, Harold – if you look at Oakland’s offense (whether for the season, or just June when both teams have been relatively hot), it just isn’t as good as Seattle’s. Their pitching has been stronger, but that could be neutralized if we have Good King Felix the rest of the way, and also if Beane realizes the only way he can improve his offense is to weaken his pitching.
Weaver DFA’d. Hmmmm. That won’t go to waivers. Somebody will offer something. Why NOT offer Pineiro? Or a B-level prospect?
Big news! Eduardo Perez for Asdrubal Cabrera. What do you guys think of this? Sounds like a great addition against lefties or possibly replacement for Dinasaur Jr.
I’m not so sure Billy Beane will pull off any great gee-whiz trades this year. I mean, what does he have to trade? Besides Barry Zito, not much. The farm system is pretty barren. And there’s no way Beane can trade Zito and get back players who can help the A’s make the playoffs more than Zito could.
Perez is crushing LHP, but where is he going to play? Or does this portend a move with Richie, or C-Rex?
I hate to see Cabrera go, he’s a player, but he was blocked. If I could see the plan for using Perez or had any confidence that Grover could come up with one, I’d like this quite a bit better.
Here’s the answer to all our problems – a new designated hitter AND pitcher.
http://tinyurl.com/l2coe
I love how you call out, of all the naysayers, Joe Sheehan.
If the Mariners saved him from a house fire, paid for his hotel, rebuilt his house, handed him a large sum of money, and gave him 24 free dinners at Shari’s, he’d still hate the M’s.
There are a number of pretty good reasons everyone thought the As would be great:
- Harden/Zito/Haren is a very strong top 3, and the Loaiza/Blanton is a very solid 4-5.
- The relief corp, in Calero/Duchsherer/Street is top-notch
- Kotsay, Chavez, Johnson, Ellis, Swisher, Crosby is a strong core of good hitters who also play good D.
- Billy Beane has demonstrated a consistent ability to improve his team over the course of the season.
The facts that Loaiza, Street, Crosby, Ellis, Duchsherer and Harden have all been hurt for significant portions of the season has really hurt. Also, Dan Johnson got off to a horrendous start.
So, Dave, if your point is that the As aren’t as good NOW as people thought they were at the beginning of the season, that’s pretty obvious correct at this point. But, if your point is that the preseason predictions by the “national writers” were groundless, I don’t think you’ve defended your position. Although you did manage to throw in another dig at Joe Sheehan, which must have felt good.
RE: #3Mariners acquire first baseman Perez
By JOHN HICKEY
P-I REPORTER
Although Perez, 36, has mostly been a first baseman in recent years, he has played right field this season (five games) and left field (three games) and third base (three games) as recently as last year.
“Eduardo is a veteran, proven right-handed bat that allows us to be stronger against left-handed pitching,” Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi said in a statement. “We think adding him to our big league club strengthens a spot that we want to be stronger as we look to the second half of the season.”
He is expected to join the Mariners in time for Saturday’s game.
As he is mostly expected to play against left-handed pitching, he has the numbers for it. Since the start of the 2002 season, Perez has hit .294 (124-for-422) with 31 doubles and 33 homers, against lefties with a .382 on-base percentage and a .602 slugging percentage.
What I’m afraid of, is that in the last few years the A’s always go on a tear during the second half. Also Dave the only reason Kendall is still a starter is his ability to not strike out. Plus he has above average speed.
Kendall, at this point, is Willie Bloomquist with some plate discipline.
ah, but Kendall is much cooler
#28. Pretty much. I’m much more concerned about the 1-7 record versus the A’s than I am about their respective interleague record. If the M’s want to win the division they must first be able to beat teams within their own divison. .500 won’t cut it unless it’s circa 2005 NL West.
#31. I’d like to believe the offense is better than the A’s. Has everyone forgotten the first two months though when it could not hit it’s way out a wet paper sack? Maybe the warmer weather has something to do with the offensive upsurge. Or maybe they are just hitting to the extremes of their means and will regress back to the averages. Average could be good enough to win the AL West. It certainly isn’t enough for anything beyond that.
Again, if the M’s do make it to the playoffs they are looking at either Detroit or more likely Chicago for the first round matchup. Is this team good enough to beat either one as it stands now? No. The Perez for Carbrera trade isn’t going to change that either. More needs to be done and I just don’t expect it to happen. It didn’t in 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2003. What’s suddenly different about this team that’s going to make the Brass stand up and make it a _real_ contender?
Bottom line is I hope I’m wrong and eveyone else is right. I’m just not seeing it right now.
Again, if the M’s do make it to the playoffs they are looking at either Detroit or more likely Chicago for the first round matchup. Is this team good enough to beat either one as it stands now? No. The Perez for Carbrera trade isn’t going to change that either. More needs to be done and I just don’t expect it to happen. It didn’t in 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2003. What’s suddenly different about this team that’s going to make the Brass stand up and make it a _real_ contender?
Time. Experience. That’s going to help a lot.
What’s NOT going to help is making moves that will weaken the team unnecessarily in future years.
Don’t worry about the first round of the playoffs…just get there. That’s is MORE than enough for this year.
Um, the A’s aren’t running away with the division because 98% of their team has spent time on the disabled list this year. The fact that you failed to even mention this in passing is a little troubling. You’re basically comparing the 2006 Mariners to the 2006 Sacramento Rivercats, and the M’s STILL come up two games short.
I think the kindest thing I can say about this article is that your analysis was extremely subpar.
Um, the A’s aren’t running away with the division because 98% of their team has spent time on the disabled list this year. The fact that you failed to even mention this in passing is a little troubling.
Read more carefully.
I read it again, and again failed to locate a sentence that said roughly “Injuries have absolutely killed the A’s this year and are basically the sole reason why they aren’t 10 games in front,” which is pretty much the only sentence required when discussing the 2006 A’s.
If I missed it, let me know.
Crosby, Harden, Thomas and Kennedy are mentioned in regards to injuries.
FWIW the M’s made #9 in the much vaunted ESPN.com Power Rankings. #8? The A’s.
Please don’t argue with A’s fans. Despite rooting for a very intelligent organization, as a whole, they come from the shallow end of the gene pool.
C’mon, Dave…please don’t judge all of us A’s fans on the myopic postings of someone who probably has never before and will never again post here. Trust me, I was at Petco Park for all three games between the Padres and the A’s and I can say that somebody owes me my money back for the inept and anemic performances that Oakland put out there. There are lots of us that know the A’s are struggling and one tool’s hyperbole about “98% of the team on the disabled list” isn’t representative of the entire fanbase.
I have to apologize, actually — he used to be in the mod queue for some particularly crappy things he said (shocking, isn’t it?) and I recently went through and loosened up the system. It didn’t take long before this one came back, unfortunately.
checked out ESPN power rankings: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/powerranking
A modectrum of respect, we jumped from 21st to 9th, right behind the A’s. Maybe the world is starting to come around and get on the M’s bandwagon…again…for whatever PR’s are worth.