What Is Gil Meche?
Another day, another good start from Gil Meche, resulting in a Mariners win. With the performance today, he lowered his ERA to 3.83 for the season and has been essentially annointed the team’s current ace by the coaching staff, as he will start the first game after the all-star break.
What a difference a month makes. After his May 30th start, Meche had a 4.87 ERA, a 5-6 record, and less than stellar peripherals. On a per 9 inning basis, he was allowing 1.28 homers, 4.39 walks, and 7.51 strikeouts. The K’s are nice, but everything else is poor, leading to the mediocre run prevention. At that point, we’d seen two more months of the typical Gil Meche.
Since June 5th, he’s started 7 games and pitched significantly better. In those 7 games, he’s thrown 45 innings, posted a 2.39 ERA, and the improved run prevention is matched by improved ratios. His HR/9 has been 0.80, his BB/9 a much improved 2.79, and his K/9 has held steady at 7.37.
You can see the improvement in his Fielding Independant ERA as well. In his first 11 starts, his FIP was 4.84, almost perfectly matching his 4.87 ERA. In his last 7 starts, his FIP has been 3.64. His ERA of 2.39 is over a run lower than you’d expect based his normal peripheral numbers, but a 3.64 FIP is nothing to be sneezed at, and is a marked improvement.
So, what has Meche done better the last 7 starts to lead to this improvement?
Two things, quite simply: He’s throwing more strikes and keeping the ball in the yard. The decrease in walks has kept runners off the bases, and the lack of home runs allowed have kept the ones that have gotten aboard from scoring. However, it is quite rare to see a pitcher simultaneously put the ball over the plate significantly more often and cut his home run rate nearly in half. Generally, strikes equal long balls, unless you just have awesome unhittable stuff, and Meche does not. Looking at the numbers as a percentage of batters faced, we see the following pattern:
First 11 starts: BB – 11%, K – 19%, HR – 3%
Last 7 starts: BB – 8%, K – 20%, HR – 2%
Less walks, slightly higher strikeout rate, less home runs. It is rare to see a pitcher simultaneously throw more strikes, put the same amount of balls in play, and still cut his home run rate. As we’ve discussed previously on the site, historically, we’ve seen no evidence of starting pitchers being able to sustain HR rates lower than their FB rates would suggest. Essentially, if Meche’s new found ability to keep the ball in the yard is real, it’s going to show up in his GB/FB%. If this is a repeatable skill, his recent run of home run stinginess will be accompanied by a raise in GB%. Let’s see if thats true:
First 11 starts: 42% GB rate, 36% FB rate
Last 7 starts: 41% GB rate, 44% FB rate
Well, that’s not what we wanted to see. He’s cut his HR rate in half despite a significant uptick in balls hit in the air. Looking at it another way, we see his HR/FB rate was 13% in his first 11 starts, but is just 7% in his last 7 starts. 11% is the league average, which pitchers have shown to regress towards over time. Pitchers in Safeco will post slightly lower HR/FB rates due to the home park, making 10% more of a realistic marker. So, he’s basically been 3% high in his bad stretch and 3% low in his good stretch.
It’s pretty obvious that his current style of performance is unsustainable, however. That isn’t to say the results aren’t sustainable, but he won’t continue to get these kind of results pitching this way. If he wants to keep posting a 2.39 ERA (or anything below 3.5, really), he better start missing a lot more bats and getting a lot more groundballs in a hurry.
Good Gil Meche is throwing the ball over the plate a lot, missing bats at a slightly above average rate, and keeping the ball in the yard. You won’t find starting pitchers who have sustained that kind of profile for a long time – if you’re not missing bats a lot and you’re throwing strikes, you’re going to get taken deep more often than this.
So, realistically, even if Gil Meche continues to throw like he has his last 7 starts, and does not regress back to what he was in the 123 major league starts that came before it and say he’s not that good, he still can’t sustain his performance with the way he’s pitching. Either the walks are going to go up or the home runs are. He’s not going to be able to keep both at their currrent low rates. It’s not a repeatable skill.
That isn’t to say Gil Meche can’t pitch well. If we put the HR/FB rate back to 10% for the rest of the year, and assume that he’ll continue to post 8% walk and 20% strikeout rates, that can be an effective enough pitcher. Noah Lowry, last season, posted numbers almost exactly identical to what Meche has posted in his last 7 starts, and he ended the year with a 3.78 ERA, 4.05 FIP, and 4.34 xFIP.
That’s what Gil Meche’s last seven start skillset projects out to. Not many walks, some homers, and enough strikeouts to make him valuable enough to pitch in the middle of a decent rotation. If Gil Meche continues to pitch like he has since the calendar turned to June, a performance similar to what 2005 Noah Lowry put up is about what we should expect.
If Gil Meche reverts to previously established form and throws like he has from 2000 through May of this year, well, he’ll be significantly worse than that.
All that to say, no, Gil Meche has not turned a corner. He’s not an ace, and he’s not pitching like one. He’s a back-end starter having a nice run aided by some performances that are unsustainable.
Edited to add: Should have included this in the original post, but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen Gil Meche become this kind of pitcher. In the second half of 2004, he ended the year with a 13 start run that saw him pitch very similar to this. Because his HR/FB rate was 12% in that run, his ERA was 4.02, but the style was very similar.
It obviously was not sustainable. This is nothing new – Meche has done this before. It’s just not a recipe for long term success.
Wow, did Lauren the token chick get her question answered. Nice, if somewhat disappointing from a fan standpoint, analysis.
Well, since I’m lame enough to be writing long essays on the merits of Gil Meche at 12:30 in the morning, at least I’m doing it on behalf of a girl. That’s a step in the right direction to having a life, I think.
If Tom Sawyer had been a sabremetrician he’d have done exactly the same thing for Becky Thatcher.
Ha! Thanks, Dave. Very nicely done. I’m glad, though, that you would have done it regardless of what gender asked.
Check it, bitchez–I merit italics.
Interesting, Dave. So the big question is, do the M’s let Meche walk at season’s end in exchange for nothing but having saved a huge 2007 salary … or do they cash in before the end of July via the Yankees, who, by all accounts, want him very badly and would presumably pay a high price?
The answer is that it’s too soon to say right now … but let’s revisit this question about, say, July 28, when we hopefully have a better idea about whether the M’s can win the division or not.
I generally agree with the assessment. You can have a mediocre or bad GB:FB rate if you’re capable of striking out batters and not walking anybody. But avoiding longballs at the same time? That’s a stretch. Unless you could somehow find a way to repeatedly induce infield flies, I don’t think you can survive that long.
Still, walk rate is king. FB + high walk + good K rate = Kip Wells (and bad Gil Meche). FB + low walk + good K rate = Noah Lowry (and good Gil Meche).
Don’t look now, but Austin Bibens-Dirkx (aka That Kid with the Star Trek Alien Name) has thrown 10.2 IP and struck out 16, walking 2, at three different levels of MiLB. The new Jeff Nelson?
The answer is that it’s too soon to say right now … but let’s revisit this question about, say, July 28, when we hopefully have a better idea about whether the M’s can win the division or not.
Exactly. Though, if for whatever reason Brian Cashman called and offered either Philip Hughes, Jose Tabata, or Brett Gardner for Meche, I’d make that deal before he had time to realize the err of his ways. It won’t happen, of course, but if another GM gets loopy and has to have Meche now, I’m willing to give him up for a a legit star prospect.
Still, walk rate is king.
This is absolutely true. One of the things I’ve noticed is that when we talk about the Big Three pitching stats, it gives the appearance that walk rate, strikeout rate, and GB/FB rate are all equal in value. They’re not. They’re the three most important markers for future success, but they don’t have the same predictive skill.
I’d say pitching is about 45% walk rate, 40% strikeout rate, and 15% GB/FB rate. The best pitchers will be elite in all three areas, but if you can only be good at two, you clearly want it to be walks and strikeouts.
Dave, do you like Tyler Clippard?
Dave, do you like Tyler Clippard?
Not particularly. He’s their version of Bobby Livingston.
Brett Gardner? What’s so exciting about him? Salivating over Hughes or Tabata I can see, but Gardner’s not in their league, leaving aside the question of whether he’s a sufficient return in trade for Meche.
It’s worth noting that Meche’s success is very much an illusion of Safeco Field:
Home: .205/.273/.358, 2.83 ERA, 5 HRs and 39 hits in 51 IP
Road: .296/.389/.459, 5.11 ERA, 7 HRs and 58 hits in 49 IP
And that split clearly gets inside his head:
Home: 16 walks, 52 Ks
Road: 27 walks, 30 Ks
Brett Gardner? What’s so exciting about him? Salivating over Hughes or Tabata I can see, but Gardner’s not in their league, leaving aside the question of whether he’s a sufficient return in trade for Meche.
Well, the Yankees aren’t going to trade Hughes or Tabata, for one, so if we’re going to deal with them, we have to be a little more realistic about what we’re going to receive.
Gardner is ridiculously fast, an 80 on the 20-80 scale, and plays a quality center field. He commands the strike zone well, and while he’s never going to be a power hitter, he has enough juice to get the ball into the gaps occassionally. As a hitter, he’s pretty similar to where Jeremy Reed was a few years ago, except he’s a better athlete and a much better defensive outfielder.
Gardner, in his prime, could hit .280/.370/.400 while playing an above average CF. That’s a valuable player.
I think what may interest the Yankees in Meche is that over the last three years, Meche has posted a 2.74 ERA in 23 innings at Yankee Stadium.
So I was watching the Giants-Dodgers game on Fox for a bit yesterday (being stuck inside with no cable will do that to you) and they put up some graphic showing how good Penny and Lowe have been (and if you ask me, Lowe hasn’t been that good) and how lousy the rest of their rotation was. And my first thought was “Hey, maybe they can be suckered into Pineiro.” But Meche works too, I guess. Large market team, in a tight race. Do they have anything the M’s might want? Still would rather trade with the Yankees, because they’re more desperate (right now the wild card isn’t coming out of the east and they’re not leading their division) and I’d rather see them get stuck with a player that ultimately disappoints.
Speaking of the Dodgers, weird pitching line for them today. I guess it’s all-star week, what the heck, burn your starters for one out:
A. Sele (W, 6-2) 6.0IP 4H 1R 1ER 2BB 7K
B. Penny (H, 1) 0.1IP 1H 0R 0ER 1BB 0K
(Can someone explain to me how Sele could be sitting on a ~>=3.00 ERA after 10 starts?)
#15: Unsustainable luck, as Dave pointed out. (See tail end of today’s game thread.)
Well, Reed at least hit the occasional home run in the minors, as opposed to zero so far this year for Gardner. They’re similar enough in production until AA, and I’m not expecting Gardner to hit .400 there, so it’s not like he has no value. Enough to trade for Meche if we’re out of it at the end of the month, quite possibly. But it doesn’t make me so excited that I’ll do it before deciding whether or not we should ride out the season.
Gardner might become what Reed should have been, maybe better. He could also be Joey Gathright.
That’s basically Mike Cameron, just a version that doesn’t strike out quite so much and gets a few less home runs.
Gil Meche for president.
Also, she’s not a girl, Dave: she’s a chick â€â€and an italicized one at that.
#15 There’s a little flag in my fantasy baseball league next to Piñeiro that says he’s about to be moved to New York for Rockies cast-off Shawn Chacon. I don’t know how much validity there is to it, but I doubt the Dodgers are gonna get him if that’s the case.
Chacon is from a town I used to live in so I am all for that trade.
I think Gil Meche’s success the past 5 weeks is very, very simple… probably not sustainable, or maybe it is, but very simple anyways.
Bats just aren’t getting squared up on him as much lately… they just aren’t. I typically Tivo every Felix start but since mid May I have been recording Meche’s as well, in order to be able to look back in these types of instances.
If you watched any of his four starts previous to Sunday’s you will have noticed how many pop outs Meche has recorded. I know tehcnically they are fly outs, but a pretty sognificant number of them were caught by the catcher or the infielders in fair and foul territory.
He’s doing something right… it’s clearly something different than he was doing to begin the season, and like a ground ball out in many ways, getting a 75-foot pop up is a great way to get outs, particularly if you are going to walk 3+ per nine.
I don’t buy a whole lot into this “he has a new routine between starts” thing, though he’s sat 92-94 a heckuva lot more lately than any other time since his surgeries.
It’s his new slider that he just learned from the pitching coach this season. It’s a legit out pitch, he was tossing it everywhere tonight. He didn’t even have a good fastball or curve, and was relying on it. And it worked.
I still can’t believe the Mariners didn’t cash in on Guardado last year when they had the chance to get something for him. Hopefully the same thing doesn’t happen with Gil.
Having seen him today in person, he is getting more movement on his breaking pitches. Not a ton, but it’s enough to make a little difference.
The one thing that has bothered me to no end about Meche 2006 is that he is so ridiculously inefficient with his pitching. Moyer throws the soft stuff and induces groundouts. Felix strikes people out. Both can get through an inning in a dozen pitches or less. I don’t think I’ve seen Meche have a 1-2-3 inning this year that’s taken fewer than 15 pitches. He can’t throw three straight strikes to save his life.
He doesn’t have the stuff to be a fastball guy, but he has too much stuff to be a crafty junkballer. So, he’s just going to try and be both and pitch twice as much as he should.
I still can’t believe the Mariners didn’t cash in on Guardado last year when they had the chance to get something for him.
Can we start a USSM FAQ, so that we have straightforward answers to questions like “Why didn’t they trade Guardado in 2005″ with URLs?
What is Gil Meche?
Three words: Excellent trade bait.
Any chance Gil’s unsustainable success is the result of the league’s scouting failing to catch up to his strike-throwing ways?
I really hope that all this “Meche is a #1 starter” talk is the M’s Front Office’s way of fooling another team into trading away someone better. Meche looks like good trade bait for some teams right now. I’m sure the local papers for every where he goes can write a positive story about how Meche will be the missing piece that will get his new team to the post season. The story looks better if their team “stole” the M’s #1 starter away.
2-3 outings of the same from Meche and maybe the M’s could be looking at a real top of the rotation prospect (or two) coming up in 2008 from trading Meche.
This team’s post season hopes are not on Meche’s shoulders. There are lots and lots of things that can be changed. Trade Meche while his value is high.
Bats just aren’t getting squared up on him as much lately… they just aren’t.
and later
He’s doing something right… it’s clearly something different than he was doing to begin the season, and like a ground ball out in many ways, getting a 75-foot pop up is a great way to get outs, particularly if you are going to walk 3+ per nine.
I think there’s an important distinction between “things are going better” and “he’s doing something better.” That Meche is getting more pop-ups is a statement of fact, but batter-pitcher encounters aren’t deterministic. There’s some amount of randomness involved, and if we look over a small enough sample size, it could just be that Meche is indeed getting more pop-ups simply due to luck.
I re-read your comment, and I don’t see anywhere that you clearly propose why it is you think Meche is getting more pop-ups. Perhaps it’s related to your comment about his pitch speed? Certainly, if he’s pitching faster, the ball has less time to drop (due to the gravitational acceleration that all objects on earth feel) and batters could be expecting the ball to be coming in lower than it actually does. Thus, they wind up swinging under the ball and popping up. (Sort of related to all of the “rising fastball” business.) Then of course, there’s the question of whether or not the added velocity is sustainable, or he’ll wind up going through some “dead arm” periods where his velocity dips.
Basically, if a good reason as to why he’s getting the pop-ups can be found, then I think that could be the basis of an argument that his success could be sustained. But unless we can really nail that down, I think you’re right (and Dave’s right) saying that this probably isn’t sustainable.
Well, I see his CURRENT streak as unsustainable, but if you look at his overall numbers for the season, he has a 3.83 ERA. The guy Dave just compared Gil to, Noah Lowry, ended up with a 3.78 ERA. So he could easily end up performing
And, if you look at Noah Lowry’s 2005, you’ll see August: 5-0, 0.69 ERA. Hmmm- can we say ‘unsustainable”? My guess is most pitchers have an unsustainable run in their season- or in Ryan Franklin’s case, his entire 2003.
Here’s the thing- if Meche really is now at a high 3-low 4 ERA place as a decent mid-rotation guy in a good rotation, that’s a real improvement. And at this point, in a division where I’m 2.5 games out at the All-Star break, I’ll take the hope that this is the “improvement” I can realistically expect from Meche.
As for the argument in 25 that we need to cash in: what’s wrong with “cashing in” on Gil’s success so far at being a high 3-low 4 ERA, mid rotation starter, by trying to win a division title in 2006? I don’t think you can seriously argue that blowing up the rotation now means anything other than surrender- and OK, let’s go through this exercise: say we go ahead and let Cha Seung Baek give us 75 IP of 5.00 ERA ball the rest of the way, while we chortle at scoring Brett Gardner, and we end up 74-88 because, well, the pitching depth in this organization sucks. Well, that’s not something you fix by tossing pitchers away, is it?
So now it’s the offseason, and our rotation is Felix, Washburn, and ?, ?, ?. Hmm, guess it’s time to resign Jamie and… oh, right, free agents. OK, maybe we get Schmidt. Or maybe not. And consider that Jarrod Washburn had WORSE FIP and xFIP numbers last year than Lowry. We might well end up with a worse option than Gil in our rotation. I’m just sayin’.
If you get the right prospect for Gil…well…I guess do what you have to do. But I look at those rotations in Chicago and Detroit, though, and what we’ve got here, and who we signed in the offseason, and I think there’s a legitimate argument for seeing if you want to bring Gil back after 2006 and use those exclusive negotiating days to your advantage, and using the rest of the season to determine that. And while Gardner might be sweet- it’s not like this team lacks for underpowered speedy outfielders.
Let’s just hope the team makes a trade soon, because Meche is one or two bad starts from losing most of his trade value. I don’t see us getting an A prospect for him, but maybe if package him with Everett. . . he he he
Dave,
You may be right about his starts before yesterday, but you don’t need to be a stat-geek to know what made the difference last night. In Gil’s own words (from the P-I):
“Meche said it was the first time he’d worn his pant legs pushed up and liked the feeling.
‘It kept my legs cool and loose, and it didn’t feel like I had a bunch of stuff weighing on me down there,” he said. “I’m not sure I’d do it again, but it was OK.’”
Stirrups and pushed up pant legs for everyone! I say we turn back the clock every night. To 2001 maybe?
Thanks for the top-notch late-night analysis, Dave. It’s great to wake up on a Monday — a non-baseball Monday at that — with pressing Mariner questions answered in full detail.
It’d be nice to see Meche traded now, just so he could leave me (what? ten years later?) with a positive impression of his time in the system. Is a month of high-quality starts worth five years of mediocrity? Probably not. But given the injuries the poor guy sustained back around the turn of the century, and the fact that he survived them at all, I’ll take it.
Brilliant. We’re only 2.5 games back and advocating trading our hottest pitcher to the Yankees so THEY can make a playoff run.
Come on…. are you trying to say Meche doesnt have an ERA of 3.83 (cuz he does…I even checked)?
Seriously, great post. These kind of threads are meat and patotaoes for the brain.
Bats just aren’t getting squared up on him as much lately… they just aren’t. I typically Tivo every Felix start but since mid May I have been recording Meche’s as well, in order to be able to look back in these types of instances.
Jason’s right. In his first 11 starts, 17% of his balls in play were classified as line drives. In his last 7 starts, only 11% of his balls in play have been line drives. Remember that 8% uptick in flyballs? Well, those have almost all been balls that were previously line drives. Line drives fall for hits far more often than flyballs do, and thus he’s been converting more balls in play into outs. All this data is from the awesome fangraphs.com site, by the way.
The problem is, based on the data we have, we’ve never been able to show that a pitcher has much control over his LD%. It varies widely from year to year. Almost every pitcher congregates in the 18% to 22% range. There are single year outliers, but LD% has been shown to have very little predictive value.
So, while Meche has been getting weaker contact, history says, again, this is not a repeatable skill. There’s almost no chance that he can sustain an 11% line drive percentage the rest of the year.
Meche is pitching better, no doubt. But he’s getting pretty lucky, too.
I don’t buy a whole lot into this “he has a new routine between starts†thing, though he’s sat 92-94 a heckuva lot more lately than any other time since his surgeries.
Hm, if he’s sitting at 92-94 a lot more lately, I’d say that probably helps a lot–and if he can sustain that, he can sustain his success….
Geeze, I think some of you are taking Dave’s “unsustainable” reference a little too seriously. He’s not saying that Meche v. 2006 is bound to revert back to Meche v. 2003-2005. He’s not saying that this is a Ryan Frankling fininishing 10th in ERA type of unsustainable.
He’s merely saying that if everything stays the same, “Ace Meche” isn’t likely to stay around. Instead he’ll turn into “Pretty damn good guy to have around” Meche.
If Meche can keep up this level of performance, I will resent him forever though. As he runs off into the sunset with a Jerrod Washburn like contract because of a contract year performance.
well, the M’s certainly have a history of loving Gil, and if he gives them an inkling of having ‘turned it around’ — whether through improved velocity, or an improved mental state via the Mike Hargrove School of Baseball Psychology (apparently he actually demanded to go back out for the 7th yesterday, a rather unheard of event) — they may well keep him. They might have to pay more than 3.7M, though.
He’s not saying this is a Ryan Franklin finishing 10th in ERA type of unsustainable.
That’s the sort of event that threatens to tear a hole in the universe.
If you get the right prospect for Gil…well…I guess do what you have to do. But I look at those rotations in Chicago and Detroit, though, and what we’ve got here, and who we signed in the offseason, and I think there’s a legitimate argument for seeing if you want to bring Gil back after 2006 and use those exclusive negotiating days to your advantage, and using the rest of the season to determine that. And while Gardner might be sweet- it’s not like this team lacks for underpowered speedy outfielders.
While you and I agree on this issue almost completely, I have no interest in bringing Gil Meche back in 2007, as he’ll certainly require a multi-year deal, and he’s simply not the kind of pitcher you want to be giving multiyear deals too.
And none of the M’s underpowered speedy outfielders are even close to Gardner. He’s a legit 80 runner, so fast that he’ll make your eyes hurt, and a plus defensive center fielder. Now, with Adam Jones around, the M’s might not need him, but the value of a CF with Gardner’s skills is quite high, and I’d bet he could be flipped for another useful piece down the line if his services weren’t needed.
Gardner >>>> Jamal Strong, even if they sound similar right now.
Gardner >>>> Jamal Strong, even if they sound similar right now.
Speaking of which, whatever happened to Strong? Also, how do I italize previous quotes on this (I really do know how to work a computer, just can’t figure this one out).
44- He’s with the Atlanta Braves Triple A team in Richmond.
The subject of the Mariners being in divisional contention at the end of July or whenever keeps cropping up in speculative discussions about whether to trade, keep or sign this or that player. Even assuming the Ms can contend, is winning this three-legged dog of a division (and, the way it looks now, the prospect of an almost certain playoff thumping by Boston or New York) worth much if you had to give up better prospects for 2007 and beyond to do it? I guess I’d like to see the Mariners win the division as much as anybody but I wouldn’t be excited about paying very much for the privilege, at least this year.
44: How to italicize: text. Remove the spaces between the ’s and the i’s.
47: Crap, that didn’t work. text Take out the periods.
I give up.
Type em and /em surrounded by <>.
Yeah, you try to get the best player you can, even if he doesn’t match your needs. Over time, if you always shop for best value, you should be able to get the pieces you actually need and improve the team in the process. That said, what the M’s need is starting pitching. They need it right now, and they’re going to need it more come this offseason. It sure would be nice to get a legit pitching prospect, kind of a scaled down Mulder for Haren deal. But I suppose if anyone had a prospect to trade, they’d be promoting him rather than trading (unless said prospect was a couple of years away). Which gets back to getting the most value you can — perhaps somebody else has a prospect to trade for a valuable outfielder….
Here’s a cheat sheet for html text formatting:
http://www.w3schools.com/html/tryit.asp?filename=tryhtml_formattingch
While you and I agree on this issue almost completely, I have no interest in bringing Gil Meche back in 2007, as he’ll certainly require a multi-year deal, and he’s simply not the kind of pitcher you want to be giving multiyear deals too.
Yeah, I know. The problem is the free agent list is:
Mark Mulder
Brad Radke
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettitte
Jason Schmidt
and a bunch of guys like Gil Meche who are crapshoots and just as likely to explode into flames as perform at a decent level, for one reason or another. Schmidt’s probably the best candidate, but is going to be more expensive than Washburn, in all likelihood, we’re not likely to get Mussina, Radke’s looking like he’s on the decline, Mulder is Jarrod Washburn Mk II, and so on.
I’m not saying I’m loving the prospect of a crapshoot, but if Meche pitches the rest of the year to a 3.8ish ERA and it appears he’s truly improved (in other words, the peripheral stats don’t scream “total fluke year”)… well, the going rate for filling out your rotation with Esteban Loaiza, Gil Meche, Kenny Rogers or Jarrod Washburn (mid-rotation guys) IS a multiyear deal. You show me better options than a guy like Meche, I’ll bite. The problem is that the farm system isn’t doing their job of producing internal candidates capable of that, and we’re reduced to overpaying.
If Meche can keep up this level of performance, I will resent him forever — because we will be the ones to sign him to a Washburn contract. Which will make Washburn’s look good by comparison, which isn’t a good thing.
Oh yeah, and Barry Zito. Same song, second verse: we’re going to get the high-priced end of that one.
This analysis is a great way to look at whether Meche is a good long-term option, and it is pretty clear that he isn’t. The M’s would be really dumb to sign him to an extension.
So, the M’s really have two viable options:
1. Trade him at the deadline
2. Keep him, offer him arbitration, and let him walk
So, basically, the question boils down to a decision between:
1. whatever prospects(s) the M’s can get for Meche at the deadline
2. a first or second round draft pick.
I am not sure if Meche would be considered a Type A or Type B free agent in the strange system that MLB uses to classify free agents. I know that the system accounts for more than the past year, so Meche’s ranking might be low due to his horrible performance in 2005, even if he keeps up his current pace or actually improves. But I would imagine that he would be at least a Type B free agent, which would net the M’s a late first round or second round pick (more likely a late first rounder). Offering Meche arbitration is a bit risky. However, if he is even mediocre, he should get a few mulit-year contract offers, and would thus be unlikely to take the M’s to arbitration.
Obviously, the M’s have to consider 2006 as well. If they trade Meche, many will interpret it as the front office giving up on the season. The M’s don’t have any impact starters that they can bring up, and it would likely hurt the club in the short term (though probably not as much as people would think). Most people here don’t worry too much about PR, but the M’s front office definitely does.
On the other hand, it’s looking like there will be very few starters available by the deadline this year. Zito and Schmidt are not likely to be moved. Livan Hernandez has been injured and ineffective. Who else is there? Meche could be one of the best starters on the market this year. It is not unlikely that the M’s will get a really good offer.
If someone like Brett Gardner is the best they can do, they might want to hold on to Meche. Gardner is good, but most 1st or 2nd rounders are also pretty good (Gardner was a 3rd rounder, by the way). But with Meche’s reasonable salary and good numbers, some club might be willing to part with a really good prospect or a nice package.
It will be intereting to see how this whole thing plays out. Lets hope that Meche’s luck holds up through July at least. If that happens, and the M’s keep getting pummelled by good clubs (with games against NYY, BOS, and TOR in July), I think that Meche could get dealt.
Which will make Washburn’s look good by comparison, which isn’t a good thing.
I doubt it would be that. It would more likely be a Loaiza-kind of contract, at worst (3 years and 21 million-ish), which, IF and only if he could give you 3.8ish ERA, 200 IP performance, would be OK through the life of the deal.
Keep in mind Washburn had a shiny ring during an 18-6 season and shiny ERAs Gil won’t have.
The thing is, we just don’t know about pitchers. Kenny Rogers got ripped here as a free agent signing. Esteban Loaiza, Jason Johnson and Jeff Weaver got praised. One of those guys is starting the All-Star game- the guy who got ripped- and is helping his team to the best record in baseball. The other three have been competing with Joel Piñeiro in the “guys you hate to see take the mound for your team” contest, and have all helped drag their team backwards in the pennant race.
RE #53,
There are more good potential free agents than that.
Daisuke Matsuzaka could finally become available. You could add him to the list with Zito, Mulder, Schmidt, Pettitte, etc, but with a rather large asterix.
But Meche does not belong in that group of very good starters. He is one of several second or third tier guys that you failed to list. That list above is only the best ones.
If you are talking about Meche, here are other comperable options:
-Adam Eaton (who is very very similar to Meche, but with inconsistency based more on injuries)
-Ted Lilly (a pretty interesting candidate, but with injury questions)
-Mark Buehrle (team option)
-Tony Armas Jr. (pretty good when healthy, which isn’t often)
-Vicente Padilla (like Meche, pretty good stuff, but poor track record)
-Kip Wells (notice a pattern here?)
All of these guys are pretty similar to Meche. Most will likely cost about the same. Plus, Meche himself will be a free agent, so the M’s could even reacquire him (not a good idea, but possible).
The point is, there are a lot of guys like Gil Meche floating around, and several of the will be free agents next offseason.
Daisuke Matsuzaka could finally become available. You could add him to the list with Zito, Mulder, Schmidt, Pettitte, etc, but with a rather large asterix.
A rather large asterix is called an obelix.
But Meche does not belong in that group of very good starters. He is one of several second or third tier guys that you failed to list. That list above is only the best ones.
Right, that’s why I said:
and a bunch of guys like Gil Meche who are crapshoots and just as likely to explode into flames as perform at a decent level, for one reason or another.
You’ve just delineated the crapshoot. And Buehrle’s not likely to have the team pass on his option (and if they do, it’s likely to be Bad News- ala how the Angels passed up on resigning Washburn).
The thing is, the M’s will enter the 2006-2007 offseason with only two established rotation candidates under contract (King Felix and Jarrod Washburn). We’re likely to have to dip into the FA market for the Eaton/Lilly/Padilla/Meche class of pitcher to fill out the rotation, simply because even if payroll doesn’t get slashed because of attendance dropoff (and dumping your 8-4, high 3 ERA pitcher is guaranteed attendance dropoff), I don’t see us signing TWO high-end SP’s the same way we signed Beltre and Sexson in 2004. So if Gil’s 2006 advanced peripheral stats justify it, and you have enough confidence in the health of his arm and approach, why not sign the guy you know the best instead of someone you have less information about?
That being said, maybe an argument can be made for doing Schmidt, convincing Moyer he needs to pitch another year, and Wheel of Minor League Pitching-O-Rama with Cruceta/one of our 87 bazillion LHP who throw 89 MPH + trying a one year flyer on another guy who ends up without a chair in February when the rest of MLB plays Musical Chairs with free agent offers- but I would point out for every Kevin Millwood you get this way there’s a Jeff Weaver. None of this is risk-free.
I’ll also add that if it’s July 30 and we’ve followed up a 1-5 week with a 2-10 fortnight…yeah, send Gil to Yankee Stadium or Shea to the highest bidder.
Signing Meche to an extension may be a bad idea…let’s just hope there are more less-bad options available when the time comes…
ec’s comments are relevant and have ideas worth pondering….
We’re likely to have to dip into the FA market for the Eaton/Lilly/Padilla/Meche class of pitcher to fill out the rotation, simply because even if payroll doesn’t get slashed because of attendance dropoff (and dumping your 8-4, high 3 ERA pitcher is guaranteed attendance dropoff)
By the way…it seems to me that an attendance dropoff like this is quite likely to last for at least two years, until 2008—if they dropped off this year, they won’t come back next year, because the casual fan have a track record of a front office that won’t support the team…and they’ll come back only the year AFTER a winning record (which has been the general correlation between winning and attendance).
Ticket sales quite rightly should not be overemphasized when it comes to personnel decisions…but I’m not sure they should be totally ignored, either…
The thing is, we just don’t know about pitchers. Kenny Rogers got ripped here as a free agent signing. Esteban Loaiza, Jason Johnson and Jeff Weaver got praised. One of those guys is starting the All-Star game- the guy who got ripped- and is helping his team to the best record in baseball. The other three have been competing with Joel Piñeiro in the “guys you hate to see take the mound for your team†contest, and have all helped drag their team backwards in the pennant race.
The Rogers deal was ripped, IIRC, for being too high cost (2/$16M) for such a high risk (41, secondary numbers declining). While it’s looked like a good deal a quarter of the way through, the numbers aren’t as good as they look. Rogers’ ERA has risen from 2.91 on 5/18 to 3.85 today. Rogers is fourth in the league in LUCK right now (5.52).
Loaiza really did look like a good move, but his body has betrayed him, and he may not be pitching anywhere in 2007.
Johnson’s numbers always suggested he was a cheaper version of Jarrod Washburn. Unfortunately, he hasn’t pitched like him this year.
Jeff Weaver… who knows. The Angels way overpaid for him, that’s for sure.
I think what I’m trying to say is that Kenny Rogers looks better because of the D on the front of his uniform, but in reality he’s really not.
As Dave hit on in his post, the entire trade-or-not-trade Meche depends, as always, on what we are offered for him.
I think the offer could be better than most people think, but I could always be wrong.
But the hope is that someone will look at Meche’s current streak and place his value at THAT pitcher… that is a mistake that we should know better than to make. And if someone else does make it we should take advantage of it.
If they don’t, that’s fine. Keep him. My only concern is that people will look at the situation like jimbob and turn down a great trade because they think Meche is an ace.
I think Meche was a Type C last Elias ranking….
There are already articles about teams looking at Matsuzaka next off-season; it will be interesting to see just how hot his market is, if they do finally post him.
I don’t see us signing TWO high-end SP’s the same way we signed Beltre and Sexson in 2004. So if Gil’s 2006 advanced peripheral stats justify it, and you have enough confidence in the health of his arm and approach, why not sign the guy you know the best instead of someone you have less information about?
Good, and disheartening, point. But let’s look at a few scenarios:
1. Matsuzaka is posted, and the M’s drop the $12M on the transfer fee. They now have #1-#2-#3 starter spots filled. If Moyer comes back, he’s #4. Now, that leaves #5, which could be Meche, but I would think that they would be paying #3-#4 money for a #5 starter, so he’s competing with Moyer for the final spot. And Moyer wins that, hands down. #5 becomes a revolving door featuring Piniero and Cruceta.
2. The M’s sign Schmidt. Same as above, except cheaper (no transfer fee). In a situation like this, you might consider taking a gamble on a LHP (Ted Lilly) for your #4 starter. Meche pushed out again.
3. A minor leaguer suddenly blossoms this summer and shows repeatable skills. I’d take the minor leaguer over Meche and twice on Sunday.
I can see Meche coming back simply because he’s the devil they know. But I can also see him quickly get overpriced in this market.
Regarding the pitching,
Obviously, it is way to early to make a plan for the rotation in 2007. But it is not anywhere as bleak as you suggest.
Felix and Washburn are locked up. Moyer is a good bet to come back on a similar contract as last year. He is showing no signs of decline, he likes to play here, and he won’t break the bank. He is at least an option. I also like Ted Lilly. He would be a sweet option if Moyer doesn’t come back.
The M’s do need a TOR starter. Thus, I am hoping they can sign one guy from the group of Matsuzaka, Schmidt, Zito (in approximate order of preference).
The M’s will have enough payroll flexibility to sign that elite pitcher plus Moyer, no problem.
For the last spot in the rotation, they could try to fill it internally. If they do trade Meche, it would give them the opportunity to see if Cruceta, Baek, or one of the other candidates can help the team. Plus, they could always look for pitching that is close to ML ready (not immediate help, but AA level) when they deal Meche.
To hedge their bets, they could also bring in a guy like Weaver, Mark Mulder (assuming he doesn’t come back from his injury and pitch in 2006), Adam Eaton (ditto Mulder), Jason Johnson, or some other guy whose stock is real low. That would give them a Plan B.
Losing Meche is not that big of a loss. He is easily replacable. The M’s could throw Cruceta out there and probably get 85% of the production. If he tanks, give Baek a shot. You never know what will happen with prospects. I don’t think anyone figured that Bobby Madritsch would come in and perform well in 2004.
Or, the M’s could get really really bold, trade Meche, then trade for Matt Clement. Boston would love to ditch his contract, and would probably include some money. Clement could replace Meche immediately. While Meche is pitching much better than Clement, the two are very similar in terms of stuff and consistency. The M’s would be selling high on Meche, buying low on Clement, and probably coming out ahead in the end.
I agree. The question is, how do you not roil the fanbase en masse by trading a guy who’s putting up a good season, arguably the best season of the five guys in the rotation, has been sold to death for years as a star-to-be and appears, as the media pundits say, to be “putting it all together”?
Someone brought this up and it’s a good question. Trading Gil Meche would look, to casual fans, like a white flag, even though it’s actually a pretty smart move. Also, you still have Joel wasting a rotation spot. How do you replace two starters? Or do you take your chances with the Junkballer going every five days, as well as with the risk that the fanbase may turn against you for selling off an overacheiving player?
Obviously, it is way to early to make a plan for the rotation in 2007. But it is not anywhere as bleak as you suggest.
Jerry, what’s the substantive difference between:
That being said, maybe an argument can be made for doing Schmidt, convincing Moyer he needs to pitch another year, and Wheel of Minor League Pitching-O-Rama with Cruceta/one of our 87 bazillion LHP who throw 89 MPH + trying a one year flyer on another guy who ends up without a chair in February when the rest of MLB plays Musical Chairs with free agent offers- but I would point out for every Kevin Millwood you get this way there’s a Jeff Weaver. None of this is risk-free.
as opposed to:
For the last spot in the rotation, they could try to fill it internally. If they do trade Meche, it would give them the opportunity to see if Cruceta, Baek, or one of the other candidates can help the team. Plus, they could always look for pitching that is close to ML ready (not immediate help, but AA level) when they deal Meche.
To hedge their bets, they could also bring in a guy like Weaver, Mark Mulder (assuming he doesn’t come back from his injury and pitch in 2006), Adam Eaton (ditto Mulder), Jason Johnson, or some other guy whose stock is real low. That would give them a Plan B.
I’m kinda curious as to why you think you didn’t just repeat what I already said. It’s a reasonable strategy- one that I could see a legitimate argument for. Meche, to me, just hasn’t ruled himself out yet as a possible signing this offseason. I’m not locked in on him…but given the MLB FA options at that end of the pool, he’s not unreasonable, either.
While Meche is pitching much better than Clement, the two are very similar in terms of stuff and consistency. The M’s would be selling high on Meche, buying low on Clement, and probably coming out ahead in the end. The M’s would be selling high on Meche, buying low on Clement, and probably coming out ahead in the end.
Uh, so you would not be willing to offer Meche a contract equal to what Clement is going to get in 2007-2008, even though you think they are comparable pitchers?
I dunno, man. I see a guy who’s battling arm trouble, has collapsing peripherals the last two years, is older than Meche (and pitchers in their 30’s routinely lose a foot off their fastball and as such their K abilities, which is what tends to diminish them as Ps), and is going to make something like 20 million in 2007-2008.
If you think this represents LESS risk than Meche on a multiyear deal, you must have a different definition of risk than I do.
I might also point out that Clement’s first year where he didn’t sort of suck ass was age 27. Schmidt’s first year with an ERA under 4, in the NL (the low ERA league)? 29. Chris Carpenter’s first year with an ERA under 4? Age 29. Esteban Loaiza’s first breakout year? Age 31. Woody Williams? Mid-30’s. Gil Meche is, as of this year, 27. The scenario of a RHP with stuff that looks better than the results to take a few years and multiple hundreds of IP to figure it all out is not exactly unprecedented.
Now with all that said, Gil Meche STILL might be the new Brett Tomko- a guy who’s going to hang around at the back of a lot of teams rotations the next few years with an OK but not great fastball, occasionally tease you with 6 good weeks, but in the end the ERA is going to be around 4.5. You don’t want to sign THAT guy to a 3 year, 21 million dollar deal. I’m willing to entertain the chance he might not be, though by letting him pitch the rest of the year unless we fall out of contention, and if he looks as good at the end of the year as he has now, see if not giving up on the guy when his arm was Shredded Wheat + hometown discount + “hey, we want you” might play into negotiations. Worst case, you find out he wants $Texas on a multiyear deal, offer arbitration, and either get him for a year at a pretty reasonable price (I doubt he’d make more than Loaiza or Weaver made this year), or walk away with the draft pick.
What success have teams had signing players to performance-tracked contracts?
I have no doubt in my mind that the Mariners will be signing Gil Meche’s paychecks for a long, long time.
Trading Gil Meche would look, to casual fans, like a white flag, even though it’s actually a pretty smart move. Also, you still have Joel wasting a rotation spot. How do you replace two starters? Or do you take your chances with the Junkballer going every five days, as well as with the risk that the fanbase may turn against you for selling off an overacheiving player?
The answer is that it IS a white flag, “Sorry, wait until next year” move. There’s just no way to have any reasonable expectation that Cruceta/Baek/His Name Is Legion In AAA or AA And He Throws Lefty 88 MPH Gas will come in and give you Meche’s level of performance so far. It could happen, just like how Aaron Sele can show up and have hot stretches with us and the Dodgers two years in a row. Pretty much anyone who can fog a mirror and throw strikes at 88 can have a hot 6-8 weeks. But putting the season on Black 17 by blowing up your rotation, and hoping that an assortment of minor leaguers with a history of unimpressive minor league K rates and a guy who was a waiver claim last year can come in and give you legitimate mid-rotation performance (what Gil’s given you so far) is not a legitimate strategy for contention. I don’t see a problem replacing Joel with other replacement level talent (might as well)- but Gil’s not a replacement level player right now.
Heck, you might not get Piñeiro’s level of performance. Go look at Baek, Nageotte and Blackley’s combined lines in 2004 for an illustration of that- 25 appearances, 16 starts with ERAs of 5.52, 7.36 and 10.04, respectively, a combined W-L record of 4-13, in around 90 IP. If that’s what we got from replacing Joel and Meche, we’d be toast.
What success have teams had signing players to performance-tracked contracts?
Almost none, since they’re basically illegal. The only kind of incentives you’re allowed to use are based on playing time, not performance. So, you can tie a player’s salary to how many innings he pitches, or whether he achieves a certain award (all-star game, Cy Young award, etc…), but you can’t explicitly write performance markers into a contract.
There’s no such thing as a deal where Meche only gets $4 million if his ERA is under 5.00. Basically, the CBA only allows you to protect yourself from injuries, but not from lousiness.
Zito is now a Boras client. There wasn’t much chance he’d turn up in Mariner blue before that, and almost zero now.
In that lower tier of upcoming FAs are people like Tony Armas (who, like Livian Hernandez, is probably available right now — the Nat’s aren’t going anywhere in October — but the price in terms of prospects is probably way to high), and people like Ponson who may just be released or traded for peanuts. And Odalis Perez. What happened to that guy — seem to remember he was highly regarded around here in the offseason.
EC,
My comment that you quoted was simply meant to point out that filling the spots in the rotation isn’t some huge daunding task. It wasn’t a refutation of what you said, but just rambling about what the M’s could do to fill the holes in their rotation. I think that you are seeing an argument when most people here are on the same page.
Regarding Clement versus Meche, there are two main reasons why I would go for Clement:
-Clement is only signed for one more year. His stock is low, so getting him from Boston would cost very little, and the Sox would be likely to eat some of his contract. Thus, the M’s could pick up Clement for one year at a fairly resonable cost.
-Clement needs to get out of Boston. Peter Gammons wrote about his problems there, and how he could really use a change of scenery. Seattle could be a good environment in terms of both the ballpark and the social environment (mellow fans, less stressful atmosphere). We know what Meche can do in Seattle. Clement is in a bad situation now, and prosper from a change just like Edgar Renteria did.
The years is the main issue. Meche is likely to get a 3-year deal. Both players are a huge risk, but if Clement craps out, the M’s are not on the hook for a long time.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that is Bavasi’s plan. I’m sure he’s quite happy to answer the phone, and if Cashman (or whomever) dangles some jaw-dropping collection of talent he’ll seriously consider it (especially if July is especially unkind to the M’s win/loss record), but that’s his fallback. And I think if they really did get a jawdropping offer, they could sell it to the fanbase as an upgrade, not a white flag. Afterall, they’ve got the media repeating all sorts of silly things we know aren’t true.
the CBA only allows you to protect yourself from injuries, but not from lousiness
Who would have thought the Great American Pastime was infiltrated by liberal Democrats?
Also, I give you: The Return of Player A and Player B- two American League starting pitchers.
Player A: 4.44 FIP, 4.96 xFIP
Player B: 4.32 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Player A is Jamie Moyer. Player B is Gil Meche.
How come I don’t hear a “OMG TRADE JAMIE NOW HE’S DUE TO SUXXOR AGAIN!!111″ hue and cry? Yeah, I know, Jamie can veto deals. I’m just not getting how anyone thinks Gil’s success is less unsustainable than Jamie’s, and if we’re going to detonate the rotation and scrap it all for next year, why the 43 year old LHP who’s a FA in November is any better to keep around than the 27 year old RHP- or why you’d expect the 44 year old to outperform the 28 year old next year who has better peripheral statistics in 2006. I can find you a LOT more guys who learned how to pitch in their late twenties than guys who could still pitch in their mid-40’s- basically, the guys who could still pitch well at Jamie’s age who aren’t dead-ball era guys are guys named Hough and Niekro- all knuckleballers. Even the guys who are closest to Jamie (LHP getting by with guile and no stuff) like Ted Lyons and Warren Spahn were pretty much done at age 44.
Zito is now a Boras client. There wasn’t much chance he’d turn up in Mariner blue before that, and almost zero now.
Why? Bavasi doesn’t have any problem dealing with Boras. Beltre is a Boras client.
Jerry, Clement had shoulder problems as far back as 2004. He got pulled from his rehab start this week after one inning due to, yes, you guessed it, Frank Stallo-er, I mean, a bad shoulder (which is how I read “tight right biceps”- as “oh crap, let’s pray it’s not his rotator cuff”) .
I would think that we’d be tired of having to rehab bad shoulders by now. I mean really, isn’t suffering through Gil’s blown rotator cuff enough?
One final thought…
Players from the Garcia trade in 2004 and the Winn and Villone trades in 2005 who are on the Mariner 25 man roster as of this date in 2006, contributing to the 2006 AL championship season: zero.
Shiny rings every member of the White Sox organization got from, in part, being willing to take a risk with an inconsistent RHP named Freddy Garcia, a pitcher many people in Seattle who thought was overrated and were THRILLED to trade for Reed/Olivo/Morse: one.
I’m not saying those trades were the wrong idea (Garcia for that package WAS the right thing to do, no question)… but it is something to think about when you say “hey, let’s make trades that improve our chances for next year and beyond, even if it kills our chances this year”. It doesn’t always work out that way.
which reminds me, there was a fine Pineiro quote this weekend: “When asked if a change of scenery might help his so-far inconsistent career, Pineiro replied, “I’m not saying I want to leave. But look at Freddy,” referring to former teammate Freddy Garcia, now with the Chicago White Sox. “Everyone’s saying he’s done in Seattle,” Pineiro said. “Two years later, he’s pitching in the World Series. Sometimes, people need a change.”"
How come I don’t hear a “OMG TRADE JAMIE NOW HE’S DUE TO SUXXOR AGAIN!!111″ hue and cry?
Moyer has a 10+ year track record, and he’s at the end of his road. Meche has a sketchy track record, but he’s 27. Moyer may only have this season left. Meche is younger.
I can find you a LOT more guys who learned how to pitch in their late twenties than guys who could still pitch in their mid-40’s- basically, the guys who could still pitch well at Jamie’s age who aren’t dead-ball era guys are guys named Hough and Niekro- all knuckleballers.
Meche is a knuckleballer? Since when?
Honestly, I’d like to see your list of players that didn’t learn to pitch until their late 20s that DIDN’T turn to the knuckleball. There’s Chris Carpenter, but Meche has never had Carpenter’s nice BB/K ratios.
Even the guys who are closest to Jamie (LHP getting by with guile and no stuff) like Ted Lyons and Warren Spahn were pretty much done at age 44.
But Lyons and Spahn both had far more talent at 27 than Meche does now. Lyons had his career interrupted by the war at 41. Spahn’s screwball transition finally caught up with him at 43.
…how do you not roil the fanbase en masse by trading a guy who’s putting up a good season, arguably the best season of the five guys in the rotation, has been sold to death for years as a star-to-be and appears, as the media pundits say, to be “putting it all togetherâ€Â?
Maybe they could have a promotion where they hand out a book filled with reprints of all the “Meche has finally figured it out” columns from local writers over the past five years.
Honestly, I’d like to see your list of players that didn’t learn to pitch until their late 20s that DIDN’T turn to the knuckleball.
You might start that list with Meche’s top 3 comps according to B-Ref: Jason Schmidt, Chris Carpenter, and Pat Hentgen.
Pineiro should post here. I hadn’t realized that being in the World Series was a sign of individual success.
I don’t want to turn this into a Garcia-Reed rehash, but Garcia has been exactly what the Mariners expected when they traded him — a decent, inconsistent starter who will get more money than he’s worth. He was good for the second half of 2004 and 2005 with FIP/xFIP of 3.96/3.77 then 4.05/4.09. But he’s been lousy this year with ERA/FIP/xFIP (chose your poison) around 5. His K-rate has fallen off the table and he’s giving up more fly balls and thus more HR. Doesn’t bode well for his future.
Back to the topic at hand, it seems unlikely that Meche or Pineiro will be part of the 2007 Mariners. There are just too many better ways to use that money than replacement level pitchers.
I’m no fan of Meche and I fully expect him to be grossly overpaid next year but referring to him as a replacement level pitcher is not consistent with my understanding of what that term means. I see him as a good deal better than replacement level, though no better than an average pitcher perhaps.
#84– do we need to add a link to that pamphlet to the new FAQ proposed in #27?
Gil Meche certainly isn’t a replacement level player this years as hos VORP is already 22.5.
I’m remaining in the move Meche if the deal is right camp. Yes, the team is 2.5 games out. Yes, the team has underperformed the pythag formula. And yes, I don’t see the hitters dropping off in the second half. But I don’t see Meche continuing hold his ERA under 4.00, and I see the starting pitching dropping off in the second half of the season. I am hopeful that the FO will make some of the moves that Dave has mentioned in the past few days. Getting a SP, even if it means packaging a prospect or making a secondary move, should be the top priority. We lost out on 2 pitchers the past 2 weeks (J. Johnson, J. Weaver?) which would have given us flexability about now. I wish I knew more about available pitchers to make some suggestions.
But on the positive side, the team limps into the break 2.5 games out, after a terrible 9 game stretch. Some positive moves and the team could make a solid move to the top of the West. Lets hope Jose Lopez enjoys the All-Star game and comes back ripping the ball.
I have to admit Meche was roughly a replacement level pitcher last year; his 2005 VORP was -1.8.
DW- Spahn and Lyons are being comped to Moyer, not Meche.
Here are some guys a very learned fellow (me) compared to Meche:
I might also point out that Clement’s first year where he didn’t sort of suck ass was age 27. Schmidt’s first year with an ERA under 4, in the NL (the low ERA league)? 29. Chris Carpenter’s first year with an ERA under 4? Age 29. Esteban Loaiza’s first breakout year? Age 31. Woody Williams? Mid-30’s. Gil Meche is, as of this year, 27. The scenario of a RHP with stuff that looks better than the results to take a few years and multiple hundreds of IP to figure it all out is not exactly unprecedented.
I don’t want to turn this into a Garcia-Reed rehash, but Garcia has been exactly what the Mariners expected when they traded him  a decent, inconsistent starter who will get more money than he’s worth.
I grant that Gil Meche might end up with Brett Tomko’s number by the end of the year, and if blowing off a pennant race in 2006 for another solid player, ala Garcia for Reed is worth it to you, and the Yankees call saying “Brett Gardner is yours for the price of Gil Meche”… I grant it’s a legitimate way to look at it. I’m not psychic, and I could easily see how this pays off (basically, if Gardner performs the way Dave says he will, you have Brett Butler in your lineup- lifetime #’s of .290/.377/.376 and great SB numbers, with the SLG likely being higher adjusted for the era differences between the 80’s/early 90’s and now. I’d like 6 years of that for below market rates, batting second behind Ichiro and playing good defense in CF at Safeco, please).
But that ring the White Sox got in 2005, in part because they traded their prospects for Garcia in 2004, then signed the dude up for 3 years? They get to keep it, even if Garcia is Piñeirotastic from this date forward.
Again, I’m not saying “hey, that Garcia trade sucked, I want a do-over” (I explicitly argued the opposite)- but trading the present (Meche’s or Garcia’s performances in our rotation) for the future (prospects) does not always pay off “next year and in the future”. There’s a decent chance we will NEVER see Reed, Morse, Bazardo or Foppert contribute significantly to any future Mariners team. Reed’s the most likely to, but considering Reed is one of a group of 5 guys (Reed, Doyle, Choo, Ibanez, and that guy who’s name in RF I keep forgetting) competing for one of 4 spots, with guys like Jones starting to breathe down some necks behind that group (and quite frankly, Jones is probably the most talented player of that group except for Whatshisname in RF)… well, it won’t shock me to see Jeremy Reed go for some AA live arm in spring training next year when we have a roster crunch.
I get a kick out of how we focus on the Mariners being only ‘2.5 games out of first place’ rather than on the equally instructive ‘3 games under .500′. I’m reminded of the old joke spoofing Soviet press reporting from the days of the Cold War: Seems a horserace was held between the champion Soviet horse and the champion American horse and the American horse won the race in a romp. Pravda reported the results as, “Heroic Soviet Horse Finishes 2nd While American Nag Finishes Next to Last”.
I get a kick out of how we focus on the Mariners being only ‘2.5 games out of first place’ rather than on the equally instructive ‘3 games under .500′.
Why? The first order of business is to get into the playoffs or compete for a spot. If we don’t make it, use it as a launch pad for next year. A playoff chase is sufficently joyful in its own right…and especially so for a team that was so woeful just last year.
Not a World Series champ yet…but I think a playoff chase, even at this low level, is sufficiently rewarding in and of itself, both for the fans and for the team.
Has USSM discussed Meche’s slider in a previous commentary? Can someone point me at it if so? Otherwise, I’m a little surprised the only time it’s shown up so far in this thread is No. 24.
Perhaps Meche avec slider is not only rotation-worthy and likely to generate more groundballs, but a bargain as well.
I get a kick out of how we focus on the Mariners being only ‘2.5 games out of first place’ rather than on the equally instructive ‘3 games under .500′.
Um, because the team should be a bit OVER .500 (45-44) and in second place if you take their runs scored/runs allowed/Pythag stuff seriously? Because, as Dave pointed out a while, a teams going on a tear in the second half and going deep into the playoffs happens regularly- might as well be us? Because nobody is running away with this division yet- we’ve lost exactly zero games in the standings to the division leader 10 games ago and the co-leader today (Oakland- who has also gone 3-7 their last 10 games)?
I don’t see what the big deal about waiting a couple of weeks is.
Here, have some historical reference…
Hmm, last place in the AL West at the All Star break, just below .500, not very close to the wild card, either. I guess they should have folded their tents, too.
I agree with gwangung. I have been very pessimistic about this team, thiking they were a few years away from being any good (and I may be right). But to be only 2.5 games out of first, even if the team is 3 games under .500, is very good. Dave has made plenty of comments about how the team has shown they should be in the thick of the race in the West (run differential). A playoff run would energise the fan base, even if it only brings hope for next year. Unless the team falls apart, or the FO goes out and trades good prospects for journeymen in the next few months, there could be positive momentum for next year with the fans. If the team wins the West with 83 wins, they still go to the playoffs.
ec – I think my favorite part of your link is seeing NYY – 30 – 36, 4th in the East.
I have been very pessimistic about this team, thiking they were a few years away from being any good (and I may be right). But to be only 2.5 games out of first, even if the team is 3 games under .500, is very good.
Well, particularly after 2004 and 2005.
Besides, keep building the team slowly and surely. Then the pieces you have to add aren’t nearly so hard to get and the team gets more attractive to come to.
You might start that list with Meche’s top 3 comps according to B-Ref: Jason Schmidt, Chris Carpenter, and Pat Hentgen.
Schmidt’s had two really good seasons in San Fran, but he was putting up some good, league-average numbers in Pittsburgh as well. He had several years that are similar to Meche’s one reasonably good year (2003). But Schmidt showed signs that he was a decent mid-rotation guy back then. Meche hasn’t.
Carpenter looks like a good comp, but here again he shows several seasons where he’s servicable before his breakout year at 30.
Hentgen may be the best comp for Meche. The problem is that Hentgen had one good year, then spent the rest of his career collecting #1 starter money while pitching at the back of the rotation.
All told, what these comps tell me is that Gil Meche may only have one good season in him, and we may be looking at it. Trade him or let him go, but I don’t think he should come back.
But that ring the White Sox got in 2005, in part because they traded their prospects for Garcia in 2004, then signed the dude up for 3 years? They get to keep it, even if Garcia is Piñeirotastic from this date forward.
1. Garcia was never going to have success in Seattle. The environment was too poisoned.
2. He isn’t any better a pitcher in Chicago. He just has a friendlier environment, more offense, and is less flaky.
3. At the time, getting three players back for Garcia was a good move, especially considering one of them was a promising OF and the other a servicable catcher with some pop. It was either that or a second-round sandwich pick.
4. Trading for Garcia did not give them a ring. It just gave them another innings mop.
Again, I’m not saying “hey, that Garcia trade sucked, I want a do-over†(I explicitly argued the opposite)- but trading the present (Meche’s or Garcia’s performances in our rotation) for the future (prospects) does not always pay off “next year and in the futureâ€Â.
I agree with you there. You have to weigh whether the value you’re getting back is worth the value you’re giving up. But it’s like any trade in that sense. It’s just that these deadline deals are part of the sport thanks to the “buy a pennant” mentality of the early 90s Blue Jays.
Well, not even that….it’s that when you’re dealing with prospects, the value you THINK you’re getting back is projected value. Most of the time, you’re going to come close, but it’s not a certainty (and that’s where some of the caution in the discussion is coming from).
Well, not even that….it’s that when you’re dealing with prospects, the value you THINK you’re getting back is projected value. Most of the time, you’re going to come close, but it’s not a certainty (and that’s where some of the caution in the discussion is coming from).
Of course the same could be said about veteran pitching…it’s always projected value with considerable risk.
“I get a kick out of how we focus on the Mariners being only ‘2.5 games out of first place’ rather than on the equally instructive ‘3 games under .500′.”
Kick or no kick, I’ll take this over the last 2 years around this time and call it an improvement:
2004 at All-Star break – 32-56
2005 at All-Star break – 39-48
11% is the league average, which pitchers have shown to regress towards over time.
There are successful pitchers with high FB rates who are able to keep HR rates below league average. Just like there are pitchers who groove pitches and give up a higher than average HR rate on their FBs would indicate.
The eyeball test for Meche this year tells me he is “pitching” better, and keeping hitters off balance more than in the past. His K/9 is up, BB down and HR down and instead of celebrating and figuring out why the masses want to point to it being unsustainable and run him out of town with torches. SIGH.
I have been as frustrated with Gil as anybody, but he has definitely turned a corner and if the M’s down sign him they will regret it. If they were smart about it they would try and extend him now at a decent price instead of waiting til the offseason when the price would be much higher for him or his replacement.
Put down the torches folks, Meche is a part of this teams future!
What are some examples of pitchers with consistently high fly ball rates who are also able to consistently keep their home run rates below average?
There are successful pitchers with high FB rates who are able to keep HR rates below league average. Just like there are pitchers who groove pitches and give up a higher than average HR rate on their FBs would indicate.
This is true. There are successful pitchers with high FB rates who keep their HR rates below average. Their names are Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, and BJ Ryan. You know what they have in common?
They’re all relief pitchers.
Relieving is fundamentally different than starting. You just won’t find a starting pitcher who has demonstrated that they can sustain lower than expected HR/FB rates. You won’t. We’ve looked, we’ve studied, we’ve tried. That pitcher doesn’t exist.
A few folks tried to claim that Jarrod Washburn was that kind of pitcher. Whoops.
Fine, jump ahead in the argument, why don’t you?
What Dave said.
Dave, why are at least some relief pitchers able to demonstrate such repeatable skills and starters not?
Dave, why are at least some relief pitchers able to demonstrate such repeatable skills and starters not?
Relief pitching is fundamentally different than starting. It’s much, much easier. Not having to deal with the endurance factor allows you to throw every pitch with maximum effort, maximum movement, and maximum velocity.
Even the starting pitchers who throw the hardest will have significant swings in velocity. Justin Verlander will pitch anywhere from 92-100. Felix’s fastball is 92-98. Bartolo Colon is 89-97, and he used to be 94-100. It’s a lot easier to take their 92 or 94 MPH fastball out of the yard.
Relievers don’t have the same kinds of swings. J.J. Putz comes in, throws 97-98 with the fastball and 90 with the splitter, and that’s it. You never see him take a little off the fastball. Same with Nathan, Rivera, and Ryan. They come in, throw smoke, and go take a seat. Hitters don’t get the 90% effort pitches to swing at.
It’s part of why Felix was so dominant last year – he had relief ace quality stuff for 7 to 8 innings every time out. And no one could touch him. If a pitcher could sustain that kind of stuff for 100-115 pitches a game, you’d see starting pitchers who could also post lower than expected HR/FB rates. But we haven’t seen that kind of freak of nature yet who can throw at 100 percent effort for an entire game.
Roger Clemens is darn close, and if he can sustain his performance this year, we’ll probably have to annoint him as the first starting pitcher to consistently show that he can whoop his expected HR/FB rate. But Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher of our time, and Gil Meche is no Roger Clemens.
Interesting. Thanks.
This is a fantastic thread. I have nothing of substance to add. I’d just like to say thanks to all, especially Dave.
This is why I love USSM.
Dave, don’t you think the reason Meche has had such success not just as of late but all year is from his home starts? With a 6-2 record and an era of 2.9 in 9 starts at home compared to 2-2 with an era of 5.1 in 9 starts. Opposing batters are hitting .296 against on the road and .200 at Safeco. I agree with what you said about hitters not hitting as many home runs at Safeco but at home he has let up 7 hrs compared to 6 on the road with 12 more innings. I always love reading about fans passion for their players but this ones not brain surgery, he’s comfortable at home. Those last 7 starts you speak of 4 were at home where he went 3-0. One being his complete game allowing only one run against the Angels. On the road he did go 1-0 but it was a game he didn’t wish to have allowing 11 base runners in 5 innings getting the win thanks to a Richie Sexson grand slam in the top of the 5th. Many pitchers are like this with huge differencials between home and road starts, look at Ervin Santana, 10-3 with a 3.96 era, 2.9 era at home with a 5.1 on the road. It happens. Your boy Jarrod Washburn, look at his numbers. Same hr’s home and away but not era. Jaime Moyers numbers from home to road are ridiculous as well 2.8/5.0 thats what comes with pitching in Seattle I guess after 5 years Meche finally got used to home. I am nervous a little with Jeremy Reed being injured as he has helped alot of the pitching staff with some great catches and whoever is in center whether it be Bloomquist or Choo will be a decent drop off. Seattle has been known to have great fans and Meche definantly appreciates it as well as the ball park so I hope he as well as the fans keep it up. Bottom line, “What is Gil Meche?” A bad pitcher that plays well at home.
Dave, don’t you think the reason Meche has had such success not just as of late but all year is from his home starts?
Safeco has helped him some, but beware the small sample size demon. 18 starts isn’t a lot of data anyways, and cutting that in half doesn’t help.
I always love reading about fans passion for their players but this ones not brain surgery, he’s comfortable at home.
You can’t make that determination based on 9 starts. His ERA at home was basically equal to his road ERA last year.
Bottom line, “What is Gil Meche?†A bad pitcher that plays well at home.
Sorry, but history doesn’t support this argument.
My argument is not about history, its about fact this year. Seattle pitchers play well at home. You could put alot of mediocre pitchers on the Mariners and they’d put up decent numbers. They should have gotten Jason Johnson I’m sure he could put up an era of 3 at Safeco. Its your arguement that has no history. You can’t tell me you’d be surprised to see him stay under 3 era at home for the 2nd half while putting up over 5 on the road. Can you explain the double strike outs at home? 60/30? He’s comfortable at home bottom line, history or no history THE FACTS ARE IN THE STATS.
My argument is not about history, its about fact this year.
Small. Sample. Size.
Seattle pitchers play well at home.
Safeco supresses offense by about 10%. Not 80%, like Meche’s line would suggest.
They should have gotten Jason Johnson I’m sure he could put up an era of 3 at Safeco.
If any old pitcher can post an ERA of 3.00 in Safeco, how much do you think Felix sucks, because he can’t?
You can’t tell me you’d be surprised to see him stay under 3 era at home for the 2nd half while putting up over 5 on the road.
Yes I can.
Can you explain the double strike outs at home?
Small. Sample. Size.
He’s comfortable at home bottom line, history or no history THE FACTS ARE IN THE STATS.
It’s comments like this that got statistical analysis laughed at, and rightfully so, for years and years.
Small samples sizes are where statistics meets superstition, that ever-popular baseball pastime.
Your backing on your article is “Small. Sample. Size.” My last comment about the facts in the stats was in reguards to your response of “sorry history doesn’t support this arguement.” so calling me out on thats a low blow but I can take it. And when I read your article I was laughing that’s why I felt the need to respond to it. Your making a story out of nothing here. Seth Mcclung, one of the worst pitchers in baseball, now in the minors for the Devil Rays has a 9.64 era on the road with a 4.36 at home. ALOT of pitchers just play better at home you cannot argue that but if you want write back… Small. Sample. Size. if it makes you feel good.
…but if you want write back…
Yea, I think I’ll pass.
You just won’t find a starting pitcher who has demonstrated that they can sustain lower than expected HR/FB rates…That pitcher doesn’t exist
Um, I think he does. His name is Pedro, Willis, Zito, Smoltz, Kazmir. I am not saying he can sustain those numbers but these are recent guys who have done it or are doing it.
What is interesting is if he “regresses” back to 10% HR rate you suggest then the names include guys like Lackey, Schilling, Penny, Colon, Santana, Millwood, and Mussina. Lets not toss the baby out with the bathwater just yet.
“What is Gil Meche?”
Gil Meche = back-of-the-rotation fodder.
Um, I think he does. His name is Pedro, Willis, Zito, Smoltz, Kazmir.
Pedro’s 2006 HR/FB: 13.7%
Willis’ 2006 HR/FB: 10.1%
Zito’s 2006 HR/FB: 9.0%
Smoltz’s 2006 HR/FB: 11.6%
Kazmir’s 2006 HR/FB: 11.6%
As a group, the guys you hand picked as being the exceptions to the rule are putting up a HR/FB rate of 11%, right at league average. So, in a word, no, those guys aren’t who you’re looking for.
If you want to make an argument that a starting pitcher has this skill, you basically stop and end at Roger Clemens.
Really, I’m not making this stuff up. I’ve done a ridiclous amount of work on this subject. I’m not trying to pull the wool over your eyes, and I’m not ignorant of some example of a guy who proves this whole theory wrong. On your side, you’ve got Roger Clemens and maybe, maybe John Lackey.. I have every other major league starting pitcher alive.
What is interesting is if he “regresses†back to 10% HR rate you suggest then the names include guys like Lackey, Schilling, Penny, Colon, Santana, Millwood, and Mussina. Lets not toss the baby out with the bathwater just yet.
And if he regresses all the way back to 20%, the names include King Felix and Josh Beckett. In fact, those two, this year, are posting the worst HR/FB rate of any pitcher in the past three seasons. They’ve both been more tateriffic than any meatball thrower you want to come up with.
Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez. If the argument is stuff = no home runs, well, then, those two are pretty much giving that argument the finger, aren’t they?
Historically, the difference between home/road splits for pitchers is maybe a fifth of a run to a half a run on their ERA (so like 2004 in the AL it was 4.49 home era to a 4.78 road era), which comes from being a little better about not giving up home runs, walking guys, and a pretty significant jump in strikeouts.
It’s not all that huge.
One thing that seems to be getting lost in the discussion of Meche’s HR rates is the fact that, even when those HR rates come back to normal, all things being equal, he’s still pitching very well. 7.4 Ks/9inn, 3/1 K/BB ratio, 2005 Noah Lowry? I’ll take that. That’s not rotation filler – it’s a legitimate #2 starter, easily one of top 50 starters in baseball.
Also, the 2004 comparison is not apt. During the 2004 “good Meche” period, Meche reduced his walk rate to a ridiculously low level, but his K rate wasn’t nearly what it has been lately.
I think it’s obvious to most people that Meche can’t sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but can he put up a 3.5 ERA? Maybe, if Hargrove doesn’t pitch his shoulder off. I think that’s what’s really worth considering.
Historically, the difference between home/road splits for pitchers is maybe a fifth of a run to a half a run on their ERA (so like 2004 in the AL it was 4.49 home era to a 4.78 road era), which comes from being a little better about not giving up home runs, walking guys, and a pretty significant jump in strikeouts.
It’s not all that huge.
To add to this point, with Meche specifically, his ‘03 to ‘05 splits have him at a 4.73 FIP at home and a 5.24 FIP on the road. In ‘06 those splits are 3.40 FIP at home and 5.47 FIP on the road.
Meche hasn’t shown anything close to a 2-run home/road split in his ERA or FIP or whatever in the past, so we’ve got 450+ IP that say he’s not special home/road-wise and 110 IP that might say he is. I’ll grant that his splits this year are weird, but my money’s still on the part that says Meche isn’t special.
That’s not rotation filler – it’s a legitimate #2 starter, easily one of top 50 starters in baseball.
Easily? Meche’s 4.32 FIP is currently 48th amongst all qualified starters in baseball. That sets him barely in the top 50. Meche’s 4.66 xFIP puts him at 57th amongst all qualified starters in baseball, not even in the top 50.
Plus, if we’re going to rank him in the top 50, we have to consider how many innings he’s going to be available to pitch, and he’s currently on pace to pitch 50+ more innings than he did last year or the year before. I haven’t specifically researched it, but I’m guessing the track record of guys who have been injured in the past and increase their workload by 50+ innings in one season is probably not a very healthy track record.
And all of this assumes that Meche’s current 4.32 FIP is a better indicator of how he’ll pitch in the second half than his 5.00-ish FIP from the last three years, which I think is a fairly shaky assumption. Meche has been pitching better so far this year, but I still haven’t seen any compelling reasons to think he’ll sustain even the improvement in his peripherals.
And all of this assumes that Meche’s current 4.32 FIP is a better indicator of how he’ll pitch in the second half than his 5.00-ish FIP from the last three years…
Exactly! And that’s what I meant when I called Meche a replacement level pitcher. Players should come with a disclaimer like mutual funds — past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is sort of like Washburn and the 3.20 ERA last year. Yes, Washburn had a 3.20 ERA and a 3.20 ERA is pretty good. And yes, Meche has an ERA of 3.83 and has been well above replacement level this year.
In Washburn’s case, his peripherals (notably strand rate) indicated that this wasn’t repeatable. For Meche, part of my pesimism is his non-sustainable HR/FB rate and his FIP and xFIP which are much worse than his ERA. But equally important is his history. Not only were 2004 and 2005 near replacement level — remember that pitching in Safeco with the Mariners defense behind improves his stats — but so were April and May of 2006. We’re basically talking about one good month where 3 of his starts were against terrible offenses (Kansas City, San Diego, and Los Angeles). To be fair, for the season Meche has faced tougher hitters on average than the other Mariners starters. Still I’d like to see some sustained results before I believe this is a “new Gil Meche” and not a 6-7 inning starter with an ERA of 5+.
Regardless of whether “new Meche” or “old Meche” shows up after the all-star break, I imagine he’s going to be finishing out the season at Safeco. Given the perception (accurate or not) that trading him means folding the tent for the season, and the lack of available arms to slot into his spot (though given his workload I’m not sure he will be available for his slot by September), it seems to me that the best course of action is to hang onto him, offer arbitration, and take the draft pick when he walks (assuming he’s “graded” high enough to make the draft pick valuable). I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pineiro get traded this month, however, particularly if the Yankees actually are interested (which seems like a lapse in judgement to me, but they’ve been kind of erratic in their ability to evaluate pitchers over the years… just like everybody else, I guess). I’m not sure who steps into Pineiro’s slot, but in terms of results it’s not likely to be any worse than Pineiro himself. So Bavasi gets to “put faith in the team” and “stay in the race” while also getting to participate in the trade market (and while I doubt he’s going to get anything of significant value from the Yankees farm system, he at least appears to be doing something to help the team). So hanging onto Meche and dealing Pineiro is a good PR move, and maybe isn’t bad for the team either (depending on what he can get for Pineiro).
I know this is small sample size but even though Gilbert has not been great on the road, he’s been good in his two Road NL starts.
Line @ Arizona 6/29: 7 IP/1 ER/1 BB/4 K
Line @ San Diego 6/23: 5.2 IP/1 ER/2 BB/6 K
If Gilbert has turned a corner in the eyes of scouts, he may have serious value to an NL team (especially in the NL West). So to the poster who said Gilbert hasn’t been all that great on the road, you are half right. He’s been good on the road against the NL teams he’s faced.
Overall, his line against the NL at home and on the road is pretty darned good: 29.1 IP/6 ER/5 BB/24 K = 1.84 ERA
Again, I know it’s small sample size, but it is a glaring plus in his overall line for the year.
Question on the “new Gil Meche” – one of the reports I’ve read or hear talked about him reducing his between-games workload, so that he doesn’t tire during the game.
Normally, I find the “we found a flaw in his delivery” or “he was tipping his pitches” arguments to be a load of hooey. But in this case…
Gil came back from labrum surgery. He was worked ridiculously hard as part of “Melvin’s Folly” (ie, using the same 5 starters all season). He lacks stamina. How many times have we seen him go 4 good innings, then blow up in the fifth or sixth? I’m no expert, but his ESPN charts show a really really bad pitcher after 75 pitches thrown (2003-2005).
In short, Gil Meche lacks arm strength, and gets tired. (Which, I think, is why some have suggested an Eck-like move to the bullpen.) So, maybe there is something to working a bit less, and being fresher for the game. This year, he gets stronger through 90 pitches, before dropping off the cliff.
Anyway, I’ve heard some reference to this, but not much. Any thoughts? Personally, I’ve always been a fan of the Leo Mazzone thro-lots-of-soft-stuff between games approach, but maybe this works for Gil.
Is this at all real, or just some more “he was jerking his head” baloney?
How thoroughly has pitcher conditioning and training been scientifically studied I wonder? I would guess not much but then I’m a lousy guesser.
Any word on that two-seamer he was working on (with laughable results in ST)?
Mat #126, if you’re still listening… I wasn’t talking about his season peripherals, I was talking about the “Since June 5th” numbers that Dave was cited. You know, 7.4 K/9inn, etc. I know, small sample size, but those are repeatable skills. I’m as skeptical as the next guy about Meche (in particular, I think he’s going to get hurt and should probably move to the bullpen before that happens), but there is certainly much more room for optimism about him than there has been at any time I can remember since his second surgery.