Tying up loose ends
A whole bunch of questions flooding the inbox, so it’s time for a notes post.
1. Trading for Alfonso Soriano would be a lousy, lousy idea. Yes, he’s having a good season in Washington, but it is the National League (and while the difference is probably overstated, the AL is significantly better this year, and that has to be acounted for), and Soriano is exactly the type of hitter that Safeco is harshest on. An optimistic expected performance from Soriano for the last two months of ’06 would be something like .280/.330/.500, and he could easily come in under that. Meanwhile, the optimistic expected performance of Chris Snelling would probably be in the .300/.360/.450 range, which is almost equal in value. Plus, Snelling is free, both in terms of salary and in terms of players needed to acquire him.
The M’s don’t need to trade for an LF/DH. They just need to use the ones already in Tacoma.
2. A few weeks ago, I noted the team had a glaring need for another strikeout pitcher in the pen to give Hargrove another option in the middle innings to use in situations where baserunners needed to be stranded. Since the end of the bullpen was made up of contact pitchers with mediocre control, the team had a significant weakness and really needed another reliever.
Enter Mark Lowe. 20 batters faced, 85 pitches, 57 strikes, 6 strikeouts, 6 groundballs. He put the first three batters he faced as a major league pitcher on board, and has since retired 14 of the last 17. He looked fantastic last night, going right after Rodriguez and Posada and getting out of a big jam. Despite his inexperience, he’s easily shown enough to be given that fourth reliever role, coming in to bail starters out of tough situations and getting strikeouts when needed.
Lowe’s a perfect example of why this new “the cost of good relievers is skyrocketing!” theory is nonsense. Relief pitching is the easiest job in baseball, and there are literally good arms in every minor league system who could come up and do the job well right now. You’d think organizations would learn when year after year, the leaderboard of elite relievers is cluttered with names their mothers wouldn’t have recognized before the season started.
The Mariners bullpen is a great example of this – J.J. Putz was a fringe prospect who is now an all-star caliber closer, George Sherrill was signed out of the independent leagues and is about as tough on lefties as anyone alive, and now the M’s look to have struck gold with Mark Lowe, who was a 5th round draft pick two years ago and had an unimpressive minor league resume coming into the year. Only Rafael Soriano was considered any kind of special talent.
Building a bullpen isn’t hard, just because Buster Olney tells you it is. And that is also why, during the offseason, the M’s need to give Mark Lowe another run as a starter. He has three pitches that he’s commanding right now, and while a move back to the rotation will cost him a little bit of velocity, he has some to give. It’s worth finding out if he could be effective for 7 innings sitting at 90-93 instead of one inning at 94-96. I’m fine leaving Lowe in the bullpen for the rest of the year while he adjusts to life in the major leagues, but he should enter Spring Training of 2007 in the hunt for a spot in the rotation.
3. Carl Everett is 19 for 106 since the calendar struck June, a .179 batting average, and we all know he doesn’t walk or hit for power. His continued presence in the line-up is a complete and utter joke, and a massive black stain on the organization. There’s literally no defense for not removing him from the job. The M’s are essentially going to war with an automatic out in the easiest position to field a hitter in baseball. Just ridiculous.
4. Willie Bloomquist has a .227 EqA, the worst of his already unimpressive career. He has four extra base hits all season. And this is the guy Mike Hargrove thinks we need to get into the line-up two to three days a week.
5. Thanks to the recent skid of 9 losses in the last 11 games, the Mariners chances of making the playoffs have taken a pretty significant beating. BP’s Playoff Odds Report has them at 5%, while coolstandings.com pegs them at 8%. I’d say they’re still a little bit higher than both of those, probably closer to 15-20%, but they aren’t great. While we still don’t have to make the buyers or sellers decision right now, we’re probably leaning towards sellers at this point.
6. How much is this starting pitcher worth to you on the open market?
28 years old, RHP, made the all-star team this year, averaged 200 IP for the last 5 years, posted ERA+ of 115 and 127 in the past two years, while posting a strikeout rate 20% better than league average, a home run rate 12% better than league average, and a walk rate 10% worse than league average. He’s got inconsistently good stuff but doesn’t always have command of it, but has managed to post low ERA’s and ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league in strikeouts the past two years. He also led the league in shutouts the past two seasons, though he has pitched in a pretty extreme pitcher’s park.
Sound like exactly the kind of pitcher everyone is hoping that Gil Meche has turned into, right? Meche’s rates this year are actually a bit worse (his K/9 is 16% better than average, walk rate is 18% worse than average, and his HR/9 is 6% worse than league average), but the profile is basically the same.
So, how much do you think that durable Gil Meche clone is worth, the one with an all-star team under his belt and 5 years of pretty consistent performance missing bats and living with the command issues? And are you worried that the performances have come in a pitcher’s park?
No? Neither were the Texas Rangers, when they signed that pitcher, Chan Ho Park, to a 5 year, $65 million dollar contract after the 2001 season.
Forget Jason Schmidt or Chris Carpenter – Chan Ho Park circa 2001 is almost an exact clone of what people are hoping Gil Meche has become. And they wonder why I’m against a contract extension…
“Only Rafael Soriano was considered any kind of special talent.” Sure, but only after he was rejected as a weak-hitting outfielder. Goes to proving the point more completely.
Contract extensions are only viable in context. What is your opinion on the terms it would take to resign Meche? What would be your tipping point so to speak on those terms?
Honestly, if the Ms could re-sign him for 5-6M a year for 2-3 years, I’d be pretty fine with that. His 04 and 05 performances warranted about 3M/year in terms of BP’s MORP so if he craters, you’re overpaying but not by much, while this year he’s on pace for about 6.5 WARP which is worth about 13M according to MORP so there’s room for regression there with you still getting your value’s worth.
Naturally, none of us wants to see Meche signed for 5 years at 12M per, but what’s it actually likely to take?
[don't be a jerk]
While I wholeheartedly agree that trading away any significant part of the future for two-plus months of Alfonso Soriano isn’t a very good idea, I don’t think I’ll ever understand the Chris-Snelling-will-save-us mindset either.
Given what we have at DH, ANYBODY with a competent bat would be seen as a savior.
Everett looked particularly awful yesterday. (“Hi, I’m Carl Everett, and I cannot hold onto a baseball bat”) I now look forward to the days when the M’s face lefties.
The greatest benefit of trading for Soriano would be moving Everett out of the organization. WFB has been stuck on 7 RBI’s for months. It does give encouragement, however, to us hustling local good old boys, where sucking up on the job yields big results.
I don’t know if this has been said enough, but kudos to Fontaine and company for finding Lowe. This is a guy with a starter’s repertoire, who comes in firing 95-97 and striking people out out of the bullpen. And he was drafted in the fifth round. In 2005!
[it has]
In 2005!
Oops, Lowe was drafted in 2004. Still a good find, though.
“… the Mariners chances of making the playoffs have taken a pretty significant beating. BP’s Playoff Odds Report has them at 5%, while coolstandings.com pegs them at 8%. I’d say they’re still a little bit higher than both of those, probably closer to 15-20%…”
15-20% seems very high to me – 4 games out, three teams to pass, and given the number of times those teams play each other there are a lot of days when the Mariner’s will be unable to gain ground on one of the other teams. If one of the three other teams gets hot in intra-division play, it will be very hard to catch them.
To give an example, if the current third-place team, the Rangers, win 55% of their remaining games they will end with 85 wins. For the Mariners to tie that, they need to win 59.4% of their remaining games. That’s approximately the Mets or Yankees so far this year. (Baseball Prospectus’s Playoff Odds report actually gives 87 as the average number of wins for the AL West pennant – the Mariners would need to play 62.3% to get there, something only the White Sox and Tigers have beat this year.)
Unless you think that the Mariners will suddenly become a much better team (not just Snelling in, Everett out), playoff odds under 10% seem about right.
“Wow, that might set a record for organizational stupidity. ”
I think Varitek+Lowe=Slocumb still takes the cake, but it would be a close second.
*waiting to be banned for mentioning the “S” word*
Dave,
What are the odds that the M’s actually act on Soriano? Or is this just another example of hyping a player through wild rumors? I agree it would be a bad move, and I really hope that they don’t sell off the farm in order to get the guy for the rest of the year.
Maybe Bavasi is secretly trying to pump up Soriano’s value so the Angels have to overpay.
Yeah, yeah, that’s what I will keep telling myself. (rocking quietly in corner)
#11- Im surprised that name is allowed to be used!…I remember playing “Ken Griffey Baseball” for the N-64, and good old Slocumb is in the pen.
I think the most interesting question is what to do with Gil Meche. It’s hard to argue that the team has been [ITS] most successful with him pitching over the last 1-2 months. I’m with Dave on the extension thing. So, if we’re not going to [RE-SIGN] him, are [WE] better off taking a shot at some prospects via a trade and opening a hole we cannot fill in the rotation (don’t talk to me about Cruceta or Baek), or trying to win as many games as we can this year in the hopes of making a case that the team is improving?
I lean toward the trade even though Bavasi will probably get fleeced again.
I am sorry but comparing Alfonso Soriano and Chris Snelling is pretty silly…
#16. Exactly. Soriano swings at everything and Snelling has plate discipline. What a silly comparison.
I think the most interesting question is what to do with Gil Meche. It’s hard to argue that the team has been it’s most successful with him pitching over the last 1-2 months. I’m with Dave on the extension thing. So, if we’re not going to resign him, are better off taking a shot at some prospects via a trade and opening a hole we cannot fill in the rotation (don’t talk to me about Cruceta or Baek), or trying to win as many games as we can this year in the hopes of making a case that the team is improving?
I lean toward the trade even though Bavasi will probably get fleeced again.
I’m all for trading Gil Meche if something good comes along. But hasn’t one of the knocks on Meche been that he can’t put together “one good season.” Seems like this year is the [CLOSEST NOT CLOSET JEEZ] we’ve ever come to “that one good season.” If you’re going to get fleeced in a trade, keep him around, and see if Meche can turn in the elusive “one good season.” (But if you decide to keep him, please don’t overpay)
The draft reviewer at baseballthinkfactory feels that Morrow’s the second best player in the 06 draft (after Linceum). FWIW.
well, if there is anything to these rumors (aside from Bowden trying to perk up the Sori market — apparently he had some folks drawing back a bit with his extravagant demands) the only plus to Hargrove’s managing the team into the tank might be to put an end to any Mariner interest in Soriano…
That draft reviewer is Carlos Gomez, an independant league pitcher (he’s been posting as ChadBradfordWannabe for years) with a sharp mind and a great eye for mechanics. I read that article last night, and enjoyed it a lot, even though I disagree with him on some things.
But if you read the thread and click on his link to the Morrow/Sinkbeil comparison .gif, you’ll love it. Really shows Morrow’s leg extension well.
i tend to buy the 5-8 % chance we make the playoffs, as opposed to the 15-20 % chance.
this team has been so consistently bad and so consistently unproductive against decent american league teams this year, that there really is no way in my mind they’re suddenly going to morph into something that can be expected to not only compete with the rangers, the a’s and the angels until september, but can reasonably be expected to outpace those teams.
i mean, seriously, where does anybody expect that added firepower and production to come from?
take away our beating in june of what everybody KNOWS is an inferior product, also known as the national league, and where are we then? i realize the rest of the AL west was doing the same same thing during june, but still.
if bavasi knows what he’s doing right now, he’s cooking up some trades that make no doubt we’re ‘sellers’ this year, but also bring back some young, major league ready bats that can step into the abyss next year where people like c-rex and WFB etc have been wallowing around of late.
bring back some young, major league ready bats that can step into the abyss next year where people like c-rex and WFB etc have been wallowing around of late.
man, it would be sad to throw those mythical major-league ready bats into an abyss
take away our beating in june of what everybody KNOWS is an inferior product, also known as the national league, and where are we then? i realize the rest of the AL west was doing the same same thing during june, but still.
Hey look, it’s this argument again. Glad we haven’t refuted it like 342 times already.
If the Mariners beating the crap out of the NL West proves that the NL West sucks, then what does the NL West beating the crap out of the rest of the AL West prove? That Texas, Anaheim, and Oakland are terrible?
Stop it with the “we can only beat NL teams” argument. We’ve lost our last three games by a total of four runs. This team is not playing “consistently lousy” baseball.
Carl Everett is 19 for 106 since the calendar struck June, a .179 batting average, and we all know he doesn’t walk or hit for power. His continued presence in the line-up is a complete and utter joke, and a massive black stain on the organization.
In May, Sexson was 21-for-106 with 7 walks and 4 homers. Everett’s 19-for-106 period also features 7 walks and 4 homers. Sexson over an identical number of PAs was as much of an offensive albatross as Everett.
So, what’s the difference between Everett and Sexson? Is it that Sexson is younger? Or is it that the M’s don’t have an Australian 1B in the minors?
#21-Hey Dave I had heard that Bowden said he wanted something like 2-1st round picks from a team to get Soriano, or maybe he ment players that were equivalent to first round draft picks, anyways can the Mariners trade Morrow?, not saying I want to do so, but are there regulations on how long a player has to be in a organization before he can be traded??
No. Yes.
26 — Yes, Morrow cannot be traded.
I think the thing that really perplexes me is how C-Rex is still playing. I mean, seriously, it’s completely obvious the guy is garbage. Not even a move down the lineup, let alone off the roster. The guy must have dirt on everyone or something.
26–
why do you want soriano?? if we’re gonna give up the farm for a hitter, it needs to be someone who’s a) LH w/ power, and b) not playing for a contract at the end of the year where he’s gonna either leave or be signed for way more than he’s worth? think beltre.
# 30- I dont want him, I just wasnt sure what the regulations were on if we could or couldn’t trade Morrow.
31–
yeah, i should read the whole post. i just saw soriano again and reacted.
but anyway, yeah, what a bad idea getting him is regardless.
If the Mariners beating the crap out of the NL West proves that the NL West sucks, then what does the NL West beating the crap out of the rest of the AL West prove? That Texas, Anaheim, and Oakland are terrible?
it just proves that the rest of the AL west was in a conspiracy to allow the mariners to get closer in the standings, just so they could all personally rock us back to reality when they started playing us again.
Derek,
Looks like you or your namesake won the Rob Neyer ESPN.com “chat lottery” today. Found it interesting not only that he concurred about Hargrove’s ill-advised use (or lack thereof) of Putz in the Toronto series, but that Neyer noted that he listened to both games. Would love to hear his views on NutriSweet Rizz……
It would be curious in a Twilight Zone world to see how Detroit and Seattle’s seasons would be looking like if Jim Leyland and Mike Hargrove switched dugouts at the start of the season.
#31-
No problem, [DON'T] worry about it.
Yes [YOU'RE] right it is a bad idea, but I really [DON'T] trust the Rosenthal article to be honest. [I'M] sure Bavasi does have interest in Soriano, but I doubt he will make a strong push for him. The only thing that worries me is that Bavasi could go after to him to possibly save his job, which many feel is in jepordy (along with [GROVER'S]).
#17 – I know that was meant to be flip, but if we’re talking about a strict player comparison (and not factoring in salary or cost of acquisition), the difference is that Soriano is an established five-tool player putting up big numbers in what was previously considered to be a tough park for hitters, and Snelling is all projection and speculation. For 29 home runs, a .280-plus average and 23 steals in just over half a season, he can swing at pitchouts for all I care.
If it was a strict either-or comparison — like if we were playing All-Star Baseball with the little spinning wheel or something — I don’t know a lot of people who wouldn’t rather see Soriano in their lineup.
Uh, I what now? On what?
Well, Park went from the best pitchers park in a league where he faced 8 hitters a game and one P to the best hitter’s park in a league where he faced 9 hitters a game.
Unless the Mariners have been playing in the NL without us noticing, and will switch leagues next year, and are planning to redo Safeco into a clone of the Ballpark in Arlington, our resigning Meche is not exactly a good comp for the Rangers signing Park. And a LOT of people pointed out those factors at the time the Park signing happened, for what it’s worth.
On top of that, Meche doesn’t have a real track record of success similar to Park’s in LA- he has no 200 IP seasons before 2006 (so if he stays heathy, this will be his first), two double digit win years before 2006 (15 wins in 2003, 10 in 2005) and this will be the first full year where he has an ERA+ over 100. Meche has more of a profile of “guy who can’t figure out which continent his pitches are going to be on before his late 20′s” than Park does. There are some guys who fit this profile who go on to decent MLB careers, and I think there’s a fair shot a team that signs Meche to a 2-3 year deal that isn’t in an extreme hitter’s park will get a guy who’ll chip in 10-18 wins, 200 IP a year, low 4-high 3 ERA during the length of the deal. You won’t get a Cy Young unless something incredibly fluky happens, but you would get get mid-rotation performance.
In other words, there’s a decent chance you’d get the GOOD CHP if you signed Meche in the best case scenario, not the craptastic one- and the Mariners, playing at Safeco, are probably one of the best bets in the AL to get that (the Dodgers, Padres and Mets would be the most likely teams in the NL, I’d guess).
That being said, Meche could start getting lit up during the second half, his arm could fall off, he could get a deal for 8 years and $Texas from the Rockies and post jetliner ERAs, or he could hang around for a few years giving you Brett Tomko numbers as a Generic Rotation Member. I’m not wedded to the guy, and obviously less years/vesting options are better… but free agent pitching signings are definitely a case where you’re looking into a glass darkly, and the M’s are going to be more familiar with the health of Gil’s arm and the risks involved than anyone else in the market. I think that (huge caveat here) IF he performs the rest of the year at the level he’s performed at so far there’s a case to be made for keeping him around if the M’s are going to shell out for some free agents.
anyways can the Mariners trade Morrow?
Nope, not until he’s been in the organization for one year.
This is why the Weaver-Pena-Lilly-Bonderman trade wasn’t completed until August of that year — the A’s had to wait out the clock on Bonderman.
Somebody calling themselves “Derek from Seattle” asked Neyer in his chat today about Hargrove’s decision not to use Putz in Toronto.
Neyer noted that in his opinion it’s one of the biggest mistakes that managers make – saving their “closer” for a “save” situation.
If the Mariners trade a top prospect like Jones, Snelling, or Clement for a rent a player like Soriano, who by the way, will be another to languish at Safeco, then this organization truly has not a clue. I believe this talk of Soriano to the M’s is just Jim Bowden trying to extort more from Anaheim, and the M’s are playing along with it so the Angels have to overpay to get him.
As far as Lowe moving to the rotation next year – yes, please. It’s so refreshing to see a young pitcher go right after hitters. But even if he doesn’t become a starter, having two right handed power arms like Lowe and Soriano to set up JJ next year would be just fine with me.
Carl Everett – oy. Was I wrong. I was one who defended his signing, basing my optimism on the notion it signaled the end of the “we-only-sign-good-guys” era. I honestly thought he would give them a swagger they badly needed. I guess I didn’t think enough about Carl the player. He does suck. If I have to watch him pop up to short left field again I think I’m going to puke. Of all the things the posters at U.S.S. Mariner have expressed their opinions about, none have they been more right about than their overwhelmingly negative opinion of Carl. I pay homage to thee. I am a believer.
Ah. I thought I’d been impersonated or something, which really has only happened once before.
Gil Meche is a nice young man, with bits of his right labrum still intact, who has never been consistently good at pitching baseball games. If he doesn’t get hurt again, he is likely to perform like a league average to below average mid-rotation starter.
This is all about value. If you think Jarrod Washburn is good value at his contract, then offer some big bucks to Meche – say $8M a year for 3 or 4 years. If you don’t – and not many here do – then Meche is worth maybe 2 or 3 years at $3M a year. If he closes out the season with eye catching numbers, even ones unsupported by his sketchy peripherals, then there’s no way he signs for the lower figure.
Note I am NOT saying Meche is replacement level talent – although based on what he gave us in 2004 and 2005, perhaps I’m being charitable.
ok, today’s KJR Midday Mariner Pronouncement: the Mariners cannot allow this to become a three-team race.
Um, isn’t it already a three-team race?
Thinking of Hargrove’s managerial decisions, and the Italian football match fixing scandal – is there any chance that Mike is being paid by, say, the Rangers, to throw games? He’s sure managing that way.
If we were in Rome or Milan, and the manager was electing to sit capable players and start games with a dwarf at center half (read Willie Bloomquist) and a one eyed goalie (read Carl Everett) I think that the authorities would come looking.
msb- I thought of you as I listened to KJR today. Man, Softy really kills me. I wonder if he ever watches Mariner’s games.
Atleast Mitch/Steve in the morning called out Willie on his atrocious game last night, his overuse, and his whining about being underutilized. It was a good way to wake up.
Bloomquist is increasingly the Ryan Franklin of the position players.
We’ve lost our last three games by a total of four runs.
And it’s not like we were getting beating by bad teams. Toronto followed up those games against us by crushing Texas 10-1.
#46– well, you know, there is only so much of KUOW and the real world that one can take in a morning, so you switch over to sportsland at KJR and some days it flips completely in the other direction, right into fantasyland…
oh, hey, Jeff Nelson thinks anyone is expendable; I’ll just stop doing a Willie here, and shut up.
Thanks Derek. Thats something that has been sitting in my head the last few days. Bloomquist went and did his normal “I’m not one to complain, but…” statement. When I read that for the 30th time, it struck a chord. It was Franklin complaining about run support. Message to WFB – If you ae not one to complain, then just shut up.
I have long secretly a WFB supporter, not to start, but didn’t think his contract was that bad and agreed with him being a “super”-sub….Which in turn meant him getting some starts.
However last night i found myself cursing WFB more than any other position player…..Ending with a game ending strike out, and a “I hate you Willie”
Gil Meche is a nice young man, with bits of his right labrum still intact, who has never been consistently good at pitching baseball games.
No-one’s arguing that- but let’s say he ends up with pretty decent numbers by the end of 2006. Again, it’s not unheard of for people to being hitting a good peak at age 27.
Here’s the thing- Washburn had 3 seasons of ERAs of 3.77, 3.20 and 3.15, plus an 18-9 season as part of a World Champion team. He had more credentials than Meche when he cam up for free agency. So did Park. So did Millwood, Burnett, Matt Clement, Esteban Loaiza, Kevin Millwood, and Paul Byrd- I can point to either more wins, 200 IP seasons or better ERAs.
Meche is a lot closer to Jaret Wright- who did get 3 years, $21 million…but it was from the Yankees, who sign a lot of guys to stupid money deals because George treats contracts like they are payable in Monopoly money. I’m not convinced Meche will get 3 at 21 guaranteed (what Wright got) from anyone…and hey, if he does, more power to him. I don’t know that it would be from me, though. I could see an argument (again, assuming he doesn’t revert to previous form before September) for a couple of years + a vesting option for a 3rd year to take him through age 30, when he’s likely to be at his peak, but that’s about it.
If we were in Rome or Milan, and the manager was electing to sit capable players and start games with a dwarf at center half (read Willie Bloomquist) and a one eyed goalie
Isn’t that kind of what Juventus will have to field next season, now?
TO be honest, I’d pay $4-5 million a year for Meche for two years, club option on a third–he’s not going to get anything less than that, no matter what happens from here on out.
More than that? Well, we’ll see…You’ll still have open slots on the rotation, and you either pay through the nose or have question marks from a not-very-deep farm system for starting pitching…
Shoot, if Juventus want to sign Willie from us to play center half in Serie B – I’d make that deal. Willie’s probably a decent soccer player.
Maybe we could get Alesandro Del Piero in return to DH?
This team wont even sniff .500 for the rest of the season
From the fox sports web site:
“Mariner Moose (1995)
With the crowd cheering, an ATV whipped the “Mariner Moose”  on rollerblades  around the outfield of Seattle’s Kingdome. Inexplicably, the Moose let go of his rope and was sent careening out of control, unable to stop. At a high rate of speed, the Moose crashed into the outfield wall and broke his ankle in one of the most memorable mascot blunders of all-time.”
The thing that caught my eye was the date: 1995. I wonder if all the team is missing this season is a Moose mishap? Take one for the team, Mr. Moose. Get everyone fired up and loose.
Hey, I was at that game. Ahhhhh good times.
ooh, looks like ‘Adam Jones for Soriano’ is being pushed off the radar by a Sonics’ sale ….
I’m shocked that nobody has put forth the “Washburn is a victim of poor run support” argument yet.
ooh, looks like ‘Adam Jones for Soriano’ is being pushed off the radar by a Sonics’ sale ….
Oklahoma City Sonics, here we come. Followed shortly by the Kansas City Blazers.
I heard him on KJR a couple of days ago and I think Willie is starting to act like a spoiled child. So many people in M’s management have blown smoke about how great Willie is that he has begun to believe that he is better than he really is. Instead of being content with being on a major league roster and making a million a year as a fringe player, which he certainly is, he actually believes he deserves to play. He certainly can’t be basing his argument on any numbers he has ever put up. It is all based on the delusion floated by the M’s front office that local boy Willie is something special. It’s all getting very tiresome.
#60– well, he has, hasn’t he???? however, he & Moyer are pretty quiet on the subject unlike certain other pitchers whose names have been mentioned of late….
62-Willie was tooting his own horn on kjr? What did he say? I don’t live in Seattle so I can’t listen to the local shows.
#63: Good point. At least Washburn is quietly mediocre.
And yes, Bloomquist’s “I’m not trying to make waves, BUT …” schtick has grown tiresome.
You can listen to KJR online at kjram.com, but I recommend against it unless you need to raise your blood pressure or kill some brain cells. Some shows are better than others, but they generally offer only the type of basic baseball analysis you would expect from a talk station.
I go to KJR only when I want actual reporting on breaking news … they aren’t half-bad at “flooding the zone,” as we say in the news business, when news breaks. Like right now with this Sonics-sold-to-Oklahoma-City-group story.
#62– it would be an odd professional athlete who didn’t think he deserved to play everyday.
#64– IIRC, Willie said what he always says– he’s a professional, he wants to play, he thinks he’s proved anything he needs to prove…
why don’t we trade willy to les schwab for a new set of tires for the safeco field mower?
can you think of a better place to utilize WFB’s grittiness than at les schwab? i mean, they RUN to you when you pull your car up in their parking lot.
granted, there’d automatically be more slow dribbling lug nuts rolling around the place, and the percentage of times a wheel well was missed while trying to get wheel in it would skyrocket.
but damn… the gritty-ness! how can they turn this trade down?!
64 – He was asked if he was frustrated watching Adam Jones come up at age 20 and be handed the starting CF job. Willie basically said that while he thinks Jones will eventually be a good player he did find it frustrating that he (Willie) wasn’t given the opportunity and that he (Willie) shouldn’t be playing major league baseball if he was happy watching someone else play while he sat. Willie repeatedly said he was a team guy and didn’t want to be a cancer in the clubhouse, but….he wants to the opportunity to play every day. As usual, instead of saying “But Willie, you’re on pace for 28RBI and 12 extra base hits for a full season”, the host just blew more smoke at him which in turn prompted Willie to continue to say he’s a team guy and all but he wants to play more. Call it Willie’s Platform.
In case you guys didn’t know yet, a shout-out over at Salon.com today. Posting here as well, since I’m not sure anyone is still reading the “Brutal” thread. Hope that’s ok.
I listen to KJR too, but I can only do it for a little while at a time. And it should be noted that there’s a (soon to be Oklahoma City) Storm game on now, so you’re not getting any new info about the Sonics sale.
And to be more on-topic, how about that Pineiro-Ponson matchup? I’d bet the over if I were a betting man.
Not that I’m a Willie Defender, but really, what do you guys expect him to do?
If he didn’t think he was worthy of playing every day, he’d probably be retired by now. Awareness of the reality of one’s own skills is not a positive trait in an ultra competitive athlete – confidence in his own skills is. If Willie “knew” just how much talent he had, he probably never would have made the majors in the first place. It’s this confidence, misplaced or not, that allowed him to overachieve and have the career that he’s had.
So, I’d be more concerned if Willie didn’t think he should play every day. And he has a weekly talk show on KJR, which I’m sure the team appreciates him doing, since its good P.R. for the club – do you expect him to go on week after week and say nothing?
I don’t have any problem with Willie’s statements. He’s not paid to be aware of his own lack of skills – that’s Hargrove and Bavasi’s job.
#60: I’m shocked that nobody has put forth the “Washburn is a victim of poor run support†argument yet.
Well, 2 runs and 9 guys LOB might lead you to think there’s something to that argument….
but somewhat related: Washburn had an interesting look on his face — like he’d just thrown up in his mouth — when Hargrove sent him to the showers in the 7th. Was he pissed at Hargrove because he thought he could handle ARod? Was he pissed at WFB for the error that prolonged the inning? Was he pissed at everybody for the overall “defense”?
Without Sexson’s error and the 3 unearned runs ensuing, maybe Washburn finally gets a W…? (if all else stays the same)
Er, yesterday I guess. Sorry.
#69. Ah, a 10 on the Snark-0-Meter. You must be so proud.
As msb points out, Willie (as opposed to Willy) is supposed to have confidence in himself. That’s on page 1 of So You Want to be a Professional Athlete. How is it whining to want to play? If he played aw-shucks with the press, the “pundits” here would be dissing him for a lack of intensity. Yes, we all know he’s not good enough to be a regular starter, but get off the WFB kick already.
And, please, while you’re at it, enough with the Chris Snelling Messiah Campaign. Comparing him with Soriano (or any proven big leaguer, let alone a perennial all-star) is indeed pretty silly.
What annoys me about Willie’s comments is that he’s talking out of both sides of his mouth. Essentially, he’s saying: “I’m really not trying to make waves here, people, but now, here I go again, making waves.”
“As msb points out, Willie (as opposed to Willy) is supposed to have confidence in himself. That’s on page 1 of So You Want to be a Professional Athlete.”
No problem, he can have as much misguided self-confidence as he likes.
“How is it whining to want to play?”
Um… when he whines it? When he back-handed insults someone else to complain about his lack of playing time?
We’ve been this route with Ryan Franklin. It gets old.
If nothing else, it gives me a pretty good chuckle. Yeah, Willie, my boy, you’ve got nothing more to prove… now that’s funny. In a way, he’s right. I’ve certainly seen enough proof.
“If he played aw-shucks with the press, the “pundits†here would be dissing him for a lack of intensity.”
Give me a break. I can’t imagine anyone, even a troll, posting anything of the sort. If anything he’d be praised for being a team guy.
If a football player comes out and says “Sure I’d love to start, but right now I’m on Special Teams and that’s important, too. I can help the team win every game and that’s my focus until coach tells me otherwise… no one is going to “diss” him.
That’s just a ridiculous argument.
“Yes, we all know he’s not good enough to be a regular starter, but get off the WFB kick already.”
We’re not ON the WFB kick… the Seattle Mariners and their press corp are. IF you could kindly talk THEM into getting off it, no one here would respond back.
As Dave pointed out, Snelling = Soriano is silly only to the uninitiated (into quantitative assessment).
The truly valid point is that Soriano would suck at Safeco (the dreaded SSS) due to his RH biology; whereas Snelling would Rule at Safeco (or at least, not SSS) because of his LH biology.
are you guys prepared to credit c-rex for his unrealistic opinion of himself, too? or does it look exactly like what it is with him… just plain bad for everyone.
77 – Exactly, Jim. Good point. His head is approaching Bondsian proportions, while his talent level is stuck on Coraian.
I actually do expect him not to say things like that. I expect him to THINK them, because he’s not particularly self-aware, but I also expect him to not whine and play passive aggressive in the press.
It’s the same kind of thing I have heard from Greg Dobbs earlier this year, in spring training.
What gets me is that this sort of whining seems to be rewarded by Hargrove, just like Everett’s tantrum seems to be being rewarded. What lousy management.
#76 Fair enough. The reason I’m slamming Willie a little bit here is because he’s on the radio saying he wants the opportunity to play. Behind closed doors, fine, but on the radio it comes across to me as grandstanding. The fact that he is a fringe player makes it annoying just as it was with Ryan Franklin. He could easily say “hey, the manager decides my role on the team and how often I play and I do the job he tells me to do to the best of my ability” and leave it at that. To me, that would be more appropriate for a player of Willie’s stature.
of course, he’d end up saying that week after week, as he gets asked the same question week after week….
Mark Lowe looks a little like Mark “The Bird” Fidrych.
He definitely has very good stuff. A mid-to-high 90s fastball, and solid breaking stuff when he can get it over.
Plenty of pro athletes are willing to admit that somebody else deserves to start ahead of them. I’m sure they all WANT to be a starter, but they don’t whine about it.
Look at Seneca Wallace. He’s backing up Hasselbeck, but would probably rather start. BUT you don’t hear him making backhanded comments about “Hasselbeck’s lack of athleticism” or anything like that..
Mark Lowe looks a little like Mark “The Bird†Fidrych.
i thought he looked a lot like jeff weaver. but then the bright side of that dark dark cloud is that he looks like jared weaver.
For me, its the repeated “I don’t want to complain, but…” etc. And perhaps it the media and not Bloomquist forcing this issue. But it gets tired after a while. Both WFB and the media need to get that he fills a very important role on this team. Since the construction of the roster is very poor (which I attribute to Hargrove), he allows for late inning flexability that the team doesn’t have otherwise. See last night, when we had to leave in a poor hitting player (Bloomquist) because we didn’t have a defensive alignment we could fall back on.
Jim Caple is wandering around the minor leagues this week, and among others meets Brazilian outfielder Anderson Gomes:
“”I try to explain what I do to my friends in Brazil,” Gomes says. “I say, ‘I live in the United States and I play baseball.’ And they say, ‘What the hell is baseball?’ They think it’s football. To become a pro soccer player is very hard in Brazil — 95 percent of the people play soccer. But I don’t like soccer. I like baseball. It’s an intelligent sport. In soccer, all you do is run and run.”
I’m not sure, but I believe Gomes could lose his Brazilian citizenship for that statement.”
#64..I live in Virginia and get the podcast of the baseball segments from Softee on my iPod…I listened to WFB this morning on my drive to work and rolled my eyes.
Would Lastings Milledge be a good fit? I haven’t checked him out at a Norfolk Tides game yet but will get a chance to next week if he’s still with the team. So did any of the Peninsula Pilots of the early 90′s ever make the 40 man roster for the Mariners?
Dave,
Was Lowe a starter down in the minors? It would be great to convert both him and Soriano into SP next year, but I thought Lowe was a relief pitcher. And how long would it take to convert either to a starter?
Is it just me, or does Lowe work really quickly? Get the ball, get the sign, throw the ball! I really enjoyed watching him pitch last night.
The Islanders of the NHL just fired their GM, and hired their back-up goalie to take over…maybe there’s a job for Willie! Fire Bavasi, hire Willie to a position where he can really use his grittiness to lead the Mariners to glory!
#79 -
I live in Washington, and the conventional wisdom was that Soriano would suck here because of the park effects. So far, he’s making the rest of the team look like a bunch of whiners, because his power doesn’t seem to have been affected.
Again, I’m not saying that Seattle ought to deal for him … he’s a Free Agent to-be, the price is too high, and the chances of it leading to a Series berth are too low. I’m saying that he’s a guy with established, five-tool credentials at the Major League level with multiple teams, in multiple parks, and at two different positions, and Snelling is a guy who hits well in AAA and has miserable luck with injuries. There is such a thing as falling in love with your own prospects; I think that’s the case here for some.
At least the fact that the FO is talking about Soriano would seem to mean that they are ready to give up on Everett.
rd is right. Hopefully the whole idea of “Raul to DH, (insert name here) to LF” is in the works.
I just don’t want Soriano to be the LF. He’s an exciting player, but why mortgage the farm to rent a player for a team that probably can’t advance, even if it makes the playoffs?
So, we almost lost the Seahawks, and Paul Allen saved them. We almost lost the Mariners, then we got “the house that Griffey built” and that magical run. Now, it appears we are on the verge of losing the Sonics, with their sale today to an OK. City group. Will they be saved? Who knows, but with all the talk about these moves the Mariners can make, let’s think to what it would be like if the Mariners hadn’t got that stadium done. Would they still be in Seattle? To what extent would we be follwing Mariner baseball right now? Yeah…Hargrove sucks, but at least we get to watch his suckiness on a daily basis….lol.
I just hate to see the only Seattle team to win a major sports championship leave town. Seeing the Sonics win the championship is one of my earliest (and best) sports memories.
I wonder if they leave, if ticket/suite demand for the M’s will increase (along with the prices)?
I live in Washington, and the conventional wisdom was that Soriano would suck here because of the park effects. So far, he’s making the rest of the team look like a bunch of whiners, because his power doesn’t seem to have been affected.
The conventional wisdom failed to take into account the fact that the National League was about as talented as the Pacific Coast League. Okay, that’s a bit harsh, but the NL stinks.
I’m saying that he’s a guy with established, five-tool credentials at the Major League level with multiple teams, in multiple parks, and at two different positions, and Snelling is a guy who hits well in AAA and has miserable luck with injuries.
Five tool credentials? Really?
Tool 1: Hit for average – He’s hitting .282 this year after .268 last year and .280 the year before. Career .280 hitter. AL is hitting .274 this year. So, no, I wouldn’t say he has the hit for average tool, any moreso than most AL hitters do.
Tool 2: Hit for power – Sure.
Tool 3: Run – Yea, he’s fast. And a decent baserunner.
Tool 4: Field – Umm, no. He was the worst defensive second baseman in baseball, and by most accounts, he’s below average in left field. There’s no way he’s got the fielding tool.
Tool 5: Throw – Not really, no. His arm was okay for second, not great for left.
So, he’s not a 5 tool guy. He’s a 2 tool guy. And he can’t play multiple positions – he’s so bad at second base that every team thats had him has wanted to move him to the outfield.
Barring another injury, Chris Snelling will be a better major league player going forward than Alfonso Soriano until the day he retires. Health is the only thing Soriano has on Snelling.
Apparently Seattle/Washington taxpayers are so used to getting bitchslapped by Seattle’s pro teams that the new Sonics owners demand a new arena even as the ink is drying.
Where did this Lowe guy come from!?!?!?
Pulling up his stats from college and the minors, nothing special at all. He pitched Wisconsin last year starting 22 games, with a 5.47 era, averaging a little over 4 walks per 9, and a little over 6 K’s per 9. Less than a year later he’s striking out A-Rod in Yankee Stadium!?!?!?
I would agree the M’s have great depth for relief pitchers and Lowe’s value would be much greater as a starter, but could this guy really make a jump from struggling in low A ball to middle of the rotation MLB starter in one year? What about his arm, last year he threw 103 innings, could he hold up for 200+?
You’ll just have to excuse me, after the previous 3 years all these great hopes from the minors have all gone down with too high of expectations or injuries.
$500 million saved on taxes, or getting to watch Hargrove’s daily suckiness?
So glad we got the better end of that deal.
89 – Lastings Milledge would be a good fit for any team, I think it’s safe to say. However, the A’s have apparently offered Zito for Milledge and been rebuffed, so I’d put that thought out of your head.
I wonder if they leave, if ticket/suite demand for the M’s will increase (along with the prices)?
I was wondering about this too. I hear the “sports dollar” theory thrown around, but I’ve never seen any evidence that people really choose between two or three teams, or how a team leaving affects the revenues of the other teams.
At least the fact that the FO is talking about Soriano would seem to mean that they are ready to give up on Everett.
None of the Soriano stories (at least the ones I have read) attribute a source actually connected to the Mariners. Trade rumor stories usually contain fuzzy language like “reportedly” (i.e., some other member of the media reported it), “suggested” or “opined” (i.e., someone who works in the industry but without personal knowledge speculated about it), or “would make sense” (i.e., the author has no source but offers his or her own speculation).
FWIW, from ther Times, “A spokesman for Chesapeake Energy in Oklahoma City, whose CEO Aubrey McClendon, is one of the investors, said the Sonics would play the 2006-07 season in Seattle but the future of the franchise depended on negotiations in Seattle for a new arena. [snip] In a meeting with team employees this morning, Sonics officials said they were committed to keeping the team in Seattle although they declined to give specifics on how that would happen.”
so, no changes, really…
Yeah right… If you buy a company from it’s investors, what are you going to tell the employees the first day? We’re moving the company to OKC? No, you tell them nothing is going to change. Put their minds at ease so you don’t have a mass exodus from the company.
Why would a group of OKC investors buy the Sonics and want to leave them here? Not to mention that OKC already built a new arena for the purpose of attracting an NBA team.
I mean no real changes from the situation before… really, what guarantee was there that they’d stay in the area before, especially after Licata & the Citizens for More Important Things got involved…
I agree that we’re really in the same spot as before. Only difference is the primary shareholders live in OKC now, instead of Seattle.
Didn’t it used to seem like people would own teams for a lot longer than the average owner does now? How many teams have been sold lately? Even in baseball, it seems like 3 or 4 a year change ownership.
Chris Snelling will be a better major leaguer than Soriano? Good God some of you are drunk on that Aussie Kool-aid. All the guy has done is show he’s fragile as glass…Soriano is a proven star. When Snelling has actually done something, get back to me.
The tax write-off you get when you purchase a team used to run out after five years, which is why that’s the standard cycle. I believe the depreciation schedule’s been revised so it’s longer in the last few years, but I don’t have a cite at my fingertips.
#98-
Yeah, I freely concede that “field” has to be dropped from the Soriano toolkit. And the “arm” as well. Still, he’s a power-speed guy with a better than average average … not many teams are in a position to turn that skillset down.
I still think that if anyone is archiving these threads for posterity, the Snelling >> Soriano posts are going to look mighty silly two years from now. “Barring another injury” is a pretty big caveat for a guy who has missed as much time as he has.
109 – He did say “barring injury”.
But production wise, Doyle has demonstated superior baseball skills.
Soriano’s walk rate is terrible. That makes me value his batting average a lot less.
At this point I’d rather have someone like Reed Johnson and his .450 OBP
And even Reed Johnson has a historically awful K/W split.
I guess I’m just thinking of longer term owners like (ugh) Steinbrenner, or (ugh again!) Al Davis.
Seems like we have more corporations owning teams now, rather than being owned by people, maybe that has something to do with it as well.
Doyle vs Soriano debate:
Soriano does two things exceptionally well. He runs fast, and hits for power. At everything else he is average or below (fielding in general). That makes for an exciting player, but he’s not All-Century or anything.
For Doyle it’s hard to say exactly what he’ll be when he is in the Majors and healthy. I’d like to say he’s young enough to develop more power, and his OBP and AVG would probably beat Soriano right now. I haven’t seen him field enough to comment on his arm, glove or range, but from what I hear, he is a good corner outfielder (which is really more than can be said for Soriano).
Now, am I being a homer? Of course I am!
But regardless of how the two compare. I don’t want the M’s to waste the money or the prospects it would take to go rent Soriano for the second half. His game doesn’t fit Safeco very well, he won’t re-sign after the season is done, and the M’s are a longshot to make any waves in the playoffs, even if they can scramble their way in.
Yeah, I freely concede that “field†has to be dropped from the Soriano toolkit. And the “arm†as well. Still, he’s a power-speed guy with a better than average average
WHich is offset by his low walk ratio.
Don’t think he’s as productive as you think he is…and his value even less so (the output to salary ratio is of value and is quite plausibly in Snelling’s favor right NOW)….
Soriano is good for fantasy teams and not much else. Next rumor, please.
…Snelling >> Soriano posts are going to look mighty silly two years from now
If you factor in that Soriano will be making like $12 million/yr. more than Snelling, at 6(?) years older, I wouldn’t be so sure about that.
Look, the caveat was health from the beginning. If you want to argue that you’re going to get no takers. We’ve lived through it, we know.
If you want to talk about the pure talent value, argue that. Don’t hedge your bets with health talk, that was already conceded.
The Sonics are gone.
I see they guy’s point. Doyle may never be a major league player again. He could explode in radioactive cloud in the batter’s box tomorrow.
I just think Soriano’s overrated.
I’ll still take my chances with Doyle, rather than pay through the nose for Soriano. They can fix, repair and heal injuries, they can’t add talent.
As far as loose ends go, if the M’s hadn’t already moved on Eduardo Perez, it would’ve been interesting to see how much it would take to get Matthew LeCroy from the Nats. It could have been as little as what the Twins got Boone for last year. (Which is nothing, I believe.) From ’03 to ’05, Perez was .288/.397/.561 against LHP and LeCroy was .307/.382/.554 against LHP.
LeCroy’s only had 67 ABs total so far this year, so I’m not sure whether that’s really enough to say that he’s declined a whole bunch. Even with a low average, he posted a solid OBP (.386) and good K/BB (10/8) numbers against LHP in his limited ABs.
Anyway, I guess I’m just wishing the M’s didn’t spend Cabrera for a guy who’s hardly even playing when it looks like now there’s someone out there who could be had for less and be of similar value.
Still, he’s a power-speed guy with a better than average average … not many teams are in a position to turn that skillset down.
But the Mariners can,
Here’s a funny stat- two LF’ers, A and B:
Player A’s OPS+ through 2005: 111
Player B’s OPS+ through 2005: 105
Player A does have better speed by a good chunk, but player B’s OBP is a skosh better. Player A is a better player overall than Player B, and is younger, too, but player B is significantly LESS expensive than Player A, and offers maybe 80-90% of the value for 60% of the cost, won’t bitch about not playing second, and isn’t going to get killed by the New Death Valley in LCF at Safeco.
Nicely done coward! Nicely done.. Some players fit certain ballparks better than others.
#123 – You could probably get LeCroy for the cost of the waiver claim. But he doesn’t field a position at all. He was bad enough as a catcher that Frank Robinson had to yank him from a game mid-inning (I think he’d given up seven steals), and he’s no great shakes at first.
I mean, he’s an upgrade over Everett at DH, but everybody in the world fits that description.
trading for Soriano is a VERY good idea… It gets Everett off the team most likely because Ibanez DH’s and we add a top notch bat… Do it
Trading for Soriano is a HORRIBLE idea.
He’s a right-handed power hitter, they come here and fail.
He’s an NL power hitter, they come here and fail.
He’s a LF/DH, a postion we don’t need. And bad at LF, to boot, which we also don’t need in SafeCo.
He’s a rent-a-player.
We’d have to give up SERIOUS talent. Three players. We cannot afford that. At all. You want to lose Clement AND Jones?
One of the worst ideas I’ve heard connected with the Ms.
Just an awful, awful idea.
While I don’t think that Soriano is a great fit for OUR team, he’ll be a nice player for SOME team. I remember a few years ago when Soriano was a minor league player and the SABR community called him an overrated bum and said D’Angelo Jiminez would be a much better major league prospect.
Soriano is a nice player even though he doesn’t fit the SABR paradigm.
The problem wasn’t so much the paradigm — the problem, it appears, was that Jimenez had serious character/personality issues.
While I don’t think that Soriano is a great fit for OUR team, he’ll be a nice player for SOME team. I remember a few years ago when Soriano was a minor league player and the SABR community called him an overrated bum and said D’Angelo Jiminez would be a much better major league prospect.
The SABR community, for the most part, sucks at prospect analysis.
They’re pretty good at major league analysis, though, and Soriano has had more than enough years to show that he’s not a great player.
I’ll disagree with Dave a little about Soriano. IN THE RIGHT CONTEXT, he can be a great addition to a team. In no context would he fall farther short than here.
We need a power lefty or a hiter with tons of patience or both. A-Sorry has neither.
Moreover, he has no proven record at the Mariners’ field. While it’s CONCEPTUALLY obvious A-Sorry’s aptitudes don’t work well in The Clam, the hard record is worse: In his last 88 plate appearances here, he’s been 190/270/305 while his overall road mark has been 260/305/465. One could choose to dispute either, but disputing both at the same time is Russian Roulette With Five Bullets (might survive, but don’t bet on it and why even play?).
Why add ANY undisciplined RH slugger when you already have too much of that and play in a park that rewards LH pull hitters and you don’t really have a bunch of ‘em?
I’ll disagree with Dave a little about Soriano. IN THE RIGHT CONTEXT, he can be a great addition to a team. In no context would he fall farther short than here.
I’m not sure what context could defend the acquisition of a poor defensive left fielder who posts an .850 OPS and commands two top prospects and $12 million per year.
I’m not arguing Soriano’s not a valuable player. I’m arguing that the cost, both in talent to acquire and to pay his salary, far exceeds his value. It’s like paying $40,000 to drive around in a Ford Focus. A car might be valuable to you if you don’t have one, but you should still never spend $40,000 on a focus.
Did anyone see the Josh Beckett signing? His ERA is 5+ this year, although his k/BB ratio is similar to Meche’s. He got a 3 year deal with a 4th year possible if he meets incentives. I know his ceiling is higher than Meche, but I’ll bet this is the type of deal Gil will look for.
Also, Castilla was dropped by San Diego. Any chance they would trade for Beltre? We’d probably have to pick up some $$, but for the right guys it could work.