Fun with numbers
At some point, I plan on doing a long post on Adrian Beltre. I don’t have time for it right now, so instead, I’m just going to present a series of numbers. You draw your own conclusions.
Monthly breakdowns:
April: .189/.284/.233, 11% BB, 23% K, .250 BABIP, 21% LD, 44% GB, 31% FB, 4% IF
May: .264/.302/.355, 4% BB, 18% K, .326 BABIP, 19% LD, 41% GB, 35% FB, 5% IF
June: .324/.387/.611, 8% BB, 18% K, .417 BABIP, 22% LD, 31% GB, 46% FB, 1% IF
July: .264/.329/.444, 10% BB, 19% K, .333 BABIP, 16% LD, 44% GB, 33% FB, 7% IF
Home/Road Splits:
Home: .241/.299/.354, 7% BB, 17% K, 17% LD, 44% GB, 35% FB, 4% IF
Road: .286/.356/.481, 9% BB, 22% K, 23% LD, 35% GB, 39% FB, 4% IF
Last 9 games (vs Toronto, New York, and Boston):
.341/.400/.610, 10% BB, 20% K, .438 BABIP, 19% LD, 33% GB, 36% FB, 11% IF
Since May 1st:
.286/.341/.472, .361 BABIP, 7% BB, 18% K, 20% LD, 38% GB, 38% FB, 4% IF
That’s 290 at-bats, by the way.
2004:
.334/.388/.629, 8% BB, 14% K, .328 BABIP, 18% LD, 41% GB, 35% FB, 6% IF
XBH/FB, by year:
HR/FB, 2002 – 10%, 2B+3B/FB, 2002 – 15%, XBH/FB, 2002 – 25%
HR/FB, 2003 – 13%, 2B+3B/FB, 2003 – 19%, XBH/FB, 2003 – 32%
HR/FB, 2004 – 23%, 2B+3B/FB, 2004 – 15%, XBH/FB, 2004 – 38%
HR/FB, 2005 – 11%, 2B+3B/FB, 2005 – 21%, XBH/FB, 2005 – 32%
HR/FB, 2006 – 6%, 2B+3B/FB, 2006 – 26%, XBH/FB, 2006 – 32%
Okay, I lied – a little commentary. No matter what you think of Adrian Beltre, there’s absolutely no way that 6% HR/FB number is going to continue. That’s Scott Podsednik/David Eckstein territory. As you can clearly see, his overall rate of extra base hits per fly ball isn’t any different than it was in ’03 or ’05, but the distribution of those hits is skewed heavily towards doubles and triples this year. This isn’t a perfect metric (it’s essentially a proxy since I don’t have play-by-play data), but it makes a pretty obvious point – Beltre is just missing home runs this year. Both of today’s balls are out of any other park in the majors, except maybe Comerica.
I’m not saying Adrian Beltre’s going to hit like this all year – a recurrance of April is still a real possibility. I am saying that people who tell you that he’s hopeless and has no chance of improving don’t know what they’re talking about.
Also, since I know the whole DIPS theory gets confusing sometimes, BABIP for hitters is not random, so don’t look at the fluctuations and assume that they reveal whether he was lucky or unlucky in a certain month. Hitters have control over whether a ball in play becomes a hit or an out, and while BABIP isn’t a great measure of skill, it is far from random, and isn’t subject to the same regression analysis a pitcher’s BABIP would be.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
So using this information to project out the rest of the year (about 250 ABs), if his FB% stays in the 35-40% range, Beltre would probably finish with similar power numbers to last year. He did set a career high in doubles last year and looks headed to best that again. But unless he starts hitting like he did in 2004, I don’t see him getting more than 20 HRs for the season, though I’d love to be wrong.
Dare I point out that his June numbers look an awful lot like his 2004 numbers? As do his numbers over the last 9 days?
All of Adrian’s problems, as I see it, are mental. He puts too much pressure on himself. When he tries to swing too hard he starts the swing too early and can’t adjust to the outside breaking ball.
He doesn’t look like he’s having much fun when he’s hitting (even since June when he’s hitting well). He’s always got a frown on his face when he’s at the plate and looks unhappy with himself. Quite the contrast with someone like Junior who looked like the game was fun. I’d rather see Beltre relax a little bit up there.
Can anyone who watched him when he was with LA tell us whether he looked that way in 2004?
Dare I point out that his June numbers look an awful lot like his 2004 numbers? As do his numbers over the last 9 days?
Except for the BABIP, which is unsustainably high. There is skill involved, but not to that level. So right now, when he hits like he did in 2004, it’s luck. In 2004 itself, it wasn’t luck (except perhaps the distribution of extra-base hits between doubles and home runs).
Dave. Thanks. Fun post.
4 – Mostly no, Ralph.
The two things that seem exaggerated are 1) backing off of pitches out of proportion to how close they are to hitting him and 2) the happy feet thing he does when he wants so badly to swing at a bad pitch and just stops himself. That’s somebody very anxious at the plate.
It seems like he’s a guy who success breeds success and failure breeds failure. More than others, anyway.
I think the first thing they could do to help Beltre is to help the team by making, as mentioned, SafeCo stops murdering righties.
But April was a whole other set of problems, that seem like need to be addressed inward, and spending some effort to determine what will make Beltre most comfortable would be advisable. I expect the team has already discussed that.
Dare I point out that his June numbers look an awful lot like his 2004 numbers? As do his numbers over the last 9 days?
The BA/OBP/SLG does, but the way he’s getting there doesn’t. His 2004 season was driven by a Pujols/Hafner/Thome like HR/FB rate – one of every four fly balls was leaving the yard. Right now, he’s hitting a lot of balls to the wall, but not over it.
All of Adrian’s problems, as I see it, are mental. He puts too much pressure on himself. When he tries to swing too hard he starts the swing too early and can’t adjust to the outside breaking ball
I’m not sure I buy the pressure thing. To me, there are a few factors at play:
Safeco clearly spooked him last year, to the point where he’s going out of his way to hit the ball on the ground at home. He knows if he pulls a flyball in Seattle, it’s probably an out. When he hits a lot of groundballs, he’s terrible.
I also think he’s more of a guess hitter than a reaction hitter. He doesn’t appear to see the ball well out of a pitcher’s hand, often swinging on a plane that is entirely different than the one the ball is traveling on. When he guesses wrong, he looks awful. When he guesses right, huzzah. To me, this is the key to his future – can he learn to recognize pitches and stop deciding to swing before the pitch is thrown?
Except for the BABIP, which is unsustainably high.
The BABIP will go down, yes. My guess, however, is that will be offset by the HR/FB going up. Since HRs aren’t counted as “balls in play”, he can sustain the average/slugging percentage by hitting more home runs, even if more of his balls in play are turned into outs.
Beltre and Sexson both seem to have the same SafeCo Effect hitting them. Sexson last year hit a crapload of doubles too, one less then his career high back in 2002 (only hit 29 HR that year).
I don’t doubt that both of them will continue to get more doubles then they have in the past, but it costs them homeruns. Sexson could have easily been a 45 homerun guy last year if perhaps SafeCo didn’t inch a few.
A few more home runs is certainly plausible, with occasional drives clearing the fence instead of hitting the top of it. I mostly wanted to point out that sustaining a .400 BABIP almost means somebody is capable of hitting .400, period. Ichiro’s hits record came with a .401 BABIP. Even at his best, that’s not something Beltre is capable of.
Safeco clearly spooked him last year, to the point where he’s going out of his way to hit the ball on the ground at home. He knows if he pulls a flyball in Seattle, it’s probably an out. When he hits a lot of groundballs, he’s terrible.
So this is showing that Safeco IS screwing up his batting, right? Why isn’t he compensating by going the other way? Or does that have its own problems?
Also,
I also think he’s more of a guess hitter than a reaction hitter. He doesn’t appear to see the ball well out of a pitcher’s hand, often swinging on a plane that is entirely different than the one the ball is traveling on. When he guesses wrong, he looks awful. When he guesses right, huzzah. To me, this is the key to his future – can he learn to recognize pitches and stop deciding to swing before the pitch is thrown?
Isn’t this another way of saying that he needs to know the pitchers better to recognize what they’re pitching? And that means more experience in the league?
One other angle to look at, and I’m not impying causality because he seemed to be coming around well before that, but here are his numbers since moving to the 2 hole:
.301 .366 .532 .898
That’s 41 games, I believe.
One of the things that I have noticed about Beltre recently is that he has gotten a better jump on the ball (reading it better I guess you can say) and is hitting the ball with the sweet spot of the bat more often.
Before we would see a lot of bloop shots.
So this is showing that Safeco IS screwing up his batting, right? Why isn’t he compensating by going the other way? Or does that have its own problems?
It’s hard to reinvent a swing at the major league level, especially when you’ve had that much success with it in the past.
Isn’t this another way of saying that he needs to know the pitchers better to recognize what they’re pitching? And that means more experience in the league?
No. Recognizing the spin of a baseball when it comes out of a pitchers hand has little to do with knowing pitcher tendencies and their styles. “Knowing the league” is, essentially, understanding the approach that each pitcher is going to take with you in a general level. For instance, I’d imagine that Edgar had an expected gameplan for pretty much every pitcher he faced, using historical data to show him how pitchers had attempted to come after him in a given situation.
Recognizing a pitch as it leaves the hand is a different ballgame – that’s just hand/eye coordination and making intelligent decisions. When you see a ball rotating heavily and beginning descent as soon as it leaves the hand, you need to be able to instictively tell yourself “breaking ball” and lay off the pitch, unless it comes from a high release point and you’re pretty certain its going to break into your hitting zone.
It appears to me that Beltre struggles with this. Early in the year, and all of last year, he’d stare at belt high fastballs coming at 90-92 MPH. If he was reacting instead of guessing, and could recognize that pitch as it left the hand, his eyes would have gotten huge and he’d have swung for the moon.
I count 10 warning track shots this year at Safeco on mlb.com’s hit chart. 5 are fly outs, 4 are doubles, 1 is a triple. So there’s that.
What Dave said. Pitch recognition isn’t ‘knowing the pitcher’. It’s a matter of actually physically seeing the ball, the release point, the spin, and knowing/guessing/hoping/predicting what kind of swing and where will best put that pitch where you want it to go. Or seeing it and knowing that you can’t do anything with it and taking it.
What Dave said. Pitch recognition isn’t ‘knowing the pitcher’. It’s a matter of actually physically seeing the ball, the release point, the spin, and knowing/guessing/hoping/predicting what kind of swing and where will best put that pitch where you want it to go. Or seeing it and knowing that you can’t do anything with it and taking it.
Didn’t know, which is why I asked…(Was he substituting knowledge of the pitcher for pitch recognition before? Because it seems that pitch recognition isn’t something you lose…)
I count 10 warning track shots this year at Safeco on mlb.com’s hit chart. 5 are fly outs, 4 are doubles, 1 is a triple. So there’s that.
This would be AFTER he got introduced to SAFECO…bet those number were higher last year…
Oh, and here’s one other fun note I should have included in the post:
Adrian Beltre: .263/.327/.416
Eric Chavez: .231/.342/.428
Hank Blalock: .277/.338/.416
Chone Figgins: .264/.338/.357
When you account for park factors and defense, you could make a pretty good case that Adrian Beltre has been the best third baseman in the division this year.
Chavez ranks higher in EQA so far.
Chavez is also hurt and not even in the line-up everyday. Macha is set on hitting him cleanup regardless of his health.
Give me Beltre out of those 4. Period.
This seems like a silly question, but how ofter do players have eye exams? Perhaps he needs a little correction.
If the Mariners look to trade Beltre in the offseason, how about trying to bring back A-Rod for Beltre and a package of players? Though it may seem like a long shot, the chorus for trading A-Rod is growing louder in the media, and if the Yankees don’t make the playoff this year, A-Rod might be made the sacrificial lamb.
His pitch recognition clearly stinks. Good recognition hitters can adjust to pitches like, oh, say, sliders down and away.
I’ve begun to wonder if he is prone to long streaks. This season sure looks that way; I’d be curious about his week-to-week variation in prior years. Was 2004 just a season-long streak?
Who but the Yankees* could take on ARod’s contract? Would you really like to give up Felix and Soriano and Jones in addition to Beltre? Because that’s the kind of thing the Yankees would demand in that “package of players.” And that’s assuming management would want him back, and assuming he would be willing to play for Seattle again (don’t count on either one). Seriously, these blockbuster trade fantasies are silly enough, but don’t compound them with trying to relive the past — it’s bad enough trying to slay the undead zombie of Griffey-in-Seattle whenever Kelly resurrects it, please don’t add to the necrotic army. The 90s are over, the internet bubble is burst, grunge is dead, Edgar is retired, and ARod is not ever going to wear teal again.
*Ok, the Red Sox could swing it too, but it will be a cold day in hell befoe anybody gets traded to Boston from New York (unless they’re carrying a particularly communicable strain of Ebola, say).
24: As I recall, Texas is still eating a big chunk of A-Rod’s contract, so the contract really isn’t that big (well, it’s still big but not 25 mil/year).
Two quick questions, one a statistical and the other a baseball question. The first is the theory about a batter/pitcher having no control over what the ball does when they hit it in the air. I don’t understand how this could be. For instance, take the Home Run Derby. When a ball is grooved down the middle at 85, it seems a lot more likely that a ball in the air will leave the park when a hitter mashes it versus just popping it up. Is this factor removed because of the variety of pitches/swings that occur? Also, what in the world is the deal with hitters seemingly ALWAYS taking a pitch when the count is 3-0? I work at Safeco and have noticed that in a 3-0 count it is invariably a fastball down the pipe. Why, then, do hitters not once in a while swing?
Hitters do, once in a while, swing at the 3-0 pitch. The manager decides whether to give them the sign to swing or not, and it’s situational. If the 3-0 pitch is a ball, obviously it’s a walk if he takes and that’s a good thing. If he takes and it’s a strike it’s still 3-1 and he’ll still probably get a good pitch to hit — or walk.
If he swings 3-0 it’s no guarantee that the batter will get a hit. Evaluating all of those probabilities it’s usually best to take the pitch because the probability of getting on base 3-1 is still very good.
You certainly wouldn’t want a weak hitter (like, say, today’s 2B) to swing 3-0 because you want to maximize the chances of a walk.
I’ll leave the DIPS/BABIP question for someone else because I’m tired.
So Dave, here’s a series of points on Beltre where I know we _agree_:
—”His 2004 season was driven by a Pujols/Hafner/Thome like HR/FB rate.” Agreed—and shall we say suspicious, but I’ll leave it there, I have no explanation.
—”I also think he’s more of a guess hitter than a reaction hitter. He doesn’t appear to see the ball well out of a pitcher’s hand, often swinging on a plane that is entirely different than the one the ball is traveling on. When he guesses wrong, he looks awful. When he guesses right, huzzah.” Agreed, absolutely.
—”It’s hard to reinvent a swing at the major league level, especially when you’ve had that much success with it in the past.” Oh, very much agreed.
—”To me, this is the key to his future – can he learn to recognize pitches and stop deciding to swing before the pitch is thrown?” Agreed, %200.
—You didn’t say this, but it’s implied in your other remarks, so I suspect that you’d agree with most of it: He’s got 8 major league years, 10 pro years with one plan, producing a predictable result which has made him a very rich man.
The only area where we disagree significantly, to me, is that I think he’ll continue to be who he’s always been and you think that, maybe, he’ll change, if I’m following you. Or are arguing that he _could_ change, to which I’d say, Agreed, but unlikely.
Beyond that, you go, Dave. I’m going to let Adrian speak for me for awhile. Numers are good, and I’m happy to glean yours to learn more. —But context is better, methinks. I don’t think you’d disagree with that, actually.
#17. I posted the numbers more as a way to analyze whether Beltre was “just missing” on home runs in Safeco. Hit chart analysis is something I’ve not seen much of, so I don’t know what to make of 10 warning track shots.
OK Dave, like you I ‘lied’ inadvertently a little bit, but I had to go back to the other thread.
“In my opinion, you are way, way too confident in your ability to understand what’s in Adrian Beltre’s mind, especially for a person who has never talked to him and has no relationship with the man.”
I can well understand your being uncomfortable with the extent and tenor of my negativity on Adrian, and I’d even say your concern is valid, there. Strong feelings make for warped assessments, no question. You’ve got some things wrong in that statement, though. I don’t claim to have any great idea what goes on in Beltre’s head. I do try to cross-section readibly observable behaviors for what they imply about his state of mind, though. For example, Adrian is less able to adapt his swing at the plate than most players; it’s hard to deny he is _highly inflexible_ in his result—an empirical assessment—which implies though it doesn’t prove that he lacks adaptability mentally—an hypothesis about what’s in his head which I can’t know because I don’t know him. Then there are strong, direct clues like Pentland’s statement that he couldn’t persuade Adrian to lay of high pitches out of the strikezone. Assuming that Pentland is neither lying nor inaccurate, reasonable assumptions, this is empirical evidence about his willingness to change his approach, or his inability to read whether the ball will stay high, or something. But it _is_ evidence of an inability to change.
My ‘read’ on Adrian’s probability of change is made from stringing together many small observations like this. And really, those observations make for a highly consistent picture. I’d be less assertive in my view of his low probability of change if there was more noise, but everything points to an inability to adapt, and suggests an unwillingness to adapt; nothing points to any trajectory which would lead him to adapt. Where’s the beef?
I have other reasons for believing that Adrian won’t change which are impossible to quantify but based on research I’ve done on personality patterns of a kind. The data isn’t the kind which counts as evidence, more a model, so I won’t even attempt to explain or cite it here, but it suggests that Adrian will not be particularly adaptable, and that the best portion of his career will be the first part. You can cut out this paragraph and throw it away because it doesn’t constitute ‘evidence,’ but it impacts my assessments of him, yes.
But beyond that, here’s another non-quantifiable factor: I’m twice your age, I’ve known a lot more people, and seen a lot more ball players. It doesn’t make me smarter, but it does give a wider base to the pyramid of known probabilities. You won’t like hearing that, I suspect, but it does influence _my_ assessment of how likely he is to change.
You go, Dave. Tear apart the numbers. Find the comparables. Look for signs in his game. I’ll be interested to know what you find. Really.
And just for the record: I would LOVE for Adrian Beltre to improve his pitch recognition, narrow his strikezone, raise his production to the level of his physical talent, and make the Hall of Fame. He’s a good joe who plays hard every day to make his team win, and that’s something to like. Really. But in this game, it’s often better to play less hard and more smart. And I don’t see Adrian as a smart or adaptable guy based on direct observation and demonstrated track record, so I don’t think he’s going to change until he shows me he can and has.
Is Safeco the strongest home-run suppressing park since the Astrodome?
The first is the theory about a batter/pitcher having no control over what the ball does when they hit it in the air.
As far as I know, there’s no such theory about a hitter having no control over what the ball does when they hit it in the air. I certainly don’t subscribe to such a theory. It’s not an accident that Albert Pujols consistently puts up HR/FB rates in the 20-25% range, while Joey Gathright puts up a 0% HR/FB rate. Hitters absolutely have control over what a ball does when it hits in the air.
They don’t have total control, though, as things like park and weather will come into play. Those are the kinds of things we can look at and try to deduce why a particular player is performing better or worse than his true talent level might suggest.
Is Safeco the strongest home-run suppressing park since the Astrodome?
No – It’s pretty HR friendly to lefties, so overall, it only depresses homers about 5-6%. It’s just death to right handed hitters.
Bela-lots of great points there. In reference to the quote below, I’m not sure I agree.
But in this game, it’s often better to play less hard and more smart.
In this game it pays to be a Manny Ramirez type, someone who appears to have no conscience, or someone who forgets everything about his last at-bat (or miscue in the field) and never appears shaken. Adrian clearly seems to ‘care’ too much and is (to use an old-school term) ‘pulling’. There have been various quotes from management that he is trying too hard. I think this speaks to his character, but that doesn’t always get you far – unfortunately. Have you ever seen Manny look shaken in the batters box? I haven’t.
Dave, is management aware of what the park does to right-handers, and how much better our right-handers hit on the road? I want to just assume they are aware, of course.
Dave, is management aware of what the park does to right-handers, and how much better our right-handers hit on the road? I want to just assume they are aware, of course.
Yea, they are. I think there’s a non-zero chance they do something about the fences this offseason.
scraps,
Not if you are a left handed pull hitter.
Dave – That’s good to hear. Our team has issues (cough pitching cough, cough Dino man cough) but the fences is also a serious problem that needs to be fixed.
The only area where we disagree significantly, to me, is that I think he’ll continue to be who he’s always been and you think that, maybe, he’ll change, if I’m following you. Or are arguing that he _could_ change, to which I’d say, Agreed, but unlikely.
I think I have no idea what to expect from Adrian Beltre going forward. I see the potential for him to suck, the potential for him to be great, and the potential for him to be somewhere in between. I think that his future performance is based on personal decisions that are up to him, and I don’t pretend to know what he’ll decide.
37/39, I think bringing in the fences in left field, which isn’t up to him, would help Beltre a lot. Even if he didn’t change his approach at all, his HR and 2B numbers would go up and that would help his confidence at home which would in turn help his approach at the plate. Haven’t looked at hit charts, but I suspect it would help Lopez, Sexson, and Johjima too.
Glad to hear the Mariners are thinking about the park problem. I suggested “fixing” the park a couple of years ago in a letter I sent to Howard Lincoln, in response to his letter to season ticket holders. He addressed some of my points but didn’t say anything about modifying the park nor have I heard the Mariners FO even acknowledge that it’s a problem.
I have seen a lot of talk about moving in the fences and I am certainly ready to give it a try to help our RH hitters.
I am curious though. Would moving in the fences also kill off more doubles/triples? Less open space for CF/LF to cover would make it easier for them to track down balls.
I guess it really doesn’t matter because I think I would rather see Beltre hit maybe 5 more HR at the Safe (pure guess) than collect 5 more doubles.
Don’t visiting teams have right-handed hitters as well?
Don’t visiting teams have right-handed hitters as well?
If affects how we construct a roster. It does not affect how other teams construct a roster. Massive difference.
Right, but then couldn’t we construct a roster that was hurt less by the park, thus giving us a home field advantage?
Most new parks are hitters’ parks (especially compared to old stadia like the Astrodome). That Safeco went entirely the other way was wonderful.
I like Safeco a lot. I’d be really disappointed if we changed it to make it easier to hit. There’s a reason I’m not a Reds, Rangers, or Phillies fan.
the problem seems to be we HAVEN’T been constructing our roster to suit the park, other than getting lucky with ibanez and being stupid with everett
Jeff Cirillo has resurrected his career in Milwaukee again, and he’s only making $850K now. At this point, I would take a $850K RH slap hittinger Jeff Cirillo to a $12.9M RH power hitting Adrian Beltre. That’s how bad 3B had been to us, we are paying 12.9M to a league average 3B and it’s still a tremendous upgrade to what we had before.
46. I wouldn’t say signing Raul was getting lucky. When we signed him, I remembered clearly that they mentioned how well he hit in Safeco as a Royal was a big reason why we brought him back. I don’t think getting Raul signed early and targeting Carlos Delgado as their #1 target even ahead of Beltre and Sexson couple years ago were coincidence. These guys do understand how this park works.
The Mariners were also rumored to be interested in Rafael Palmeiro before he signed with the O’s and was known to be interested in Barry Bonds once he becomes a FA. Guys like Palmeiro and Bonds hit well in Safeco, it’s not a secret to the managements.
I like Safeco a lot. I’d be really disappointed if we changed it to make it easier to hit. There’s a reason I’m not a Reds, Rangers, or Phillies fan.
Ugh. I don’t know how many times I have to state this, or how I need to write it to make it easier to understand:
I am NOT suggesting we make we make Safeco a hitters park. I’m suggesting we reconfigure the park to make it less friendly for left-handed hitters and more friendly for right-handed hitters. Instead of having Safeco destroy RH hitters and favor LH hitters, I’d rather it be an equally detrimental park to both sides.
If Safeco played like Chavez Ravine, we wouldn’t be having this issue. You can have a pitchers park that is not so polarized in how it treats hitters based on handedness.
The problem i have with the current park configuration is that they keep looking for the “save all” left handed sock. You add one more left handed power hitter (who presumingly will strike out at a high rate) and you face a decent left handed pitcher, they don’t really have a chance. The current team doesn’t have a very good track record against lefties as it is (although they have been doing better recently).
It just seems like a catch-22, you get a lot of power on the left side so you can hit it out in your home park…..but the easy defense to that is to bring in a lefty pitcher. It’s unbalanced and puts too much pressure on a hitter like Beltre, when the cards are already stacked against him.
Hopefully management/ownership will realize Griffey ain’t coming back, lets make this park more fair for the players we got!
Assuming he’s going to finish up about where he is now, how much is a .750 OPS Beltre worth?
Using the Torri Hunter model (great D, not too much O), about $8 million per?
If that’s the case, he’s not the biggest overpay in the world.
â€ÂHis 2004 season was driven by a Pujols/Hafner/Thome like HR/FB rate.†Agreedâ€â€and shall we say suspicious, but I’ll leave it there, I have no explanation.
Preterition gets you nowhere on this blog, dude. The idea he shot himself full of “flaxseed oil” and suddenly had the 2004 second half he had makes even less sense based on the numbers Dave has provided for that year.
Moving the alley in 10 feet and shrinking that CF triangle could transform Beltre from middling to pretty damn good, since he’d stop pulling it with a more inviting left-center target.
Dave, do you really think it’s realistic to think that the team would simultaneously adjust the fences both inward and outward at the same time? It seems like changes in park dimensions usually get done in only one direction at a time.
It’s interesting to hear that management is at least giving this some thought. But my guess would be that if they do anything, it will only be one of the two (bring in the left-center fence a few feet, hopefully not too much). Although if you know more specifically what they’re considering, then I’ll defer to you.
[deleted, long link, wtf]
I heard somewhere that the Mariners had the chance to sign Delgado instead of Sexson, for about the same contract, but that Bavasi was forced to go for Sexson by the front office, because he’s a local, good for the fans, etc etc. Would they really do such a thing, especially with the park the way it is?
Not true.
Dave, do you really think it’s realistic to think that the team would simultaneously adjust the fences both inward and outward at the same time? It seems like changes in park dimensions usually get done in only one direction at a time.
Realistic? Maybe. I’m not saying that it’s likely, but I do think it will get discussed. The organization likes the fact that Safeco helps pitchers – I don’t think they want to change that. But I think they do realize that RH hitters come in here and freak out when they take a few swings, and they are aware of the mental issues that can cause. So far, they’ve taken the approach that the hitters will adjust to the field, but very few have been able to. At this point, it seems time to adjust the approach.
And guys like Aaron Boone and Chone Figgins, who are the only 2 3B with worse OPS than Beltre, are making no where near 12.9M. He’s not the most overpaid position player, but he’s pretty close to it.
Don’t forget the park adjustment. 22 third baseman have at least 300 plate appearances (meaning they’re playing pretty much everyday). Beltre ranks 18th in VORP, ahead of Chavez, Blalock, Inge, and Boone. He’s basically in a tie with Bell and just marginally behind Feliz, Mora, and Tracy. And that’s just offense.
Beltre’s not having a good year – no one is arguing that. But when you look at what he’s given the M’s this year, it’s a better package than what 10-12 other teams have gotten from their third baseman this year.
I heard somewhere that the Mariners had the chance to sign Delgado instead of Sexson, for about the same contract, but that Bavasi was forced to go for Sexson by the front office, because he’s a local, good for the fans, etc etc. Would they really do such a thing, especially with the park the way it is?
Nope. Delgado wouldn’t sign the offer on the table, which was for about the same amount he finally got from the Mets – the M’s realized he wasn’t going to commit to signing until he was the last available bat, and they weren’t willing to wait for him and potentially end up with a lot of money to spend and no players left to spend it on.
OK – thanks. I had hoped that was drifting over into the realm of anti-Lincoln paranoia…
I remember that. All the big free agents were expected to sign early to avoid a change in tax law governing their signing boni, but Carlos held out as long as he could.
And benefitted from it not at all.
Excellent post. In addition, AB’s stellar defense cannot be disputed. Overall, there isn’t many 3b’s I’d swap for. Especially not Cirillo. Good Lord.
isn’t? how about aren’t? It’s early….
Right, but then couldn’t we construct a roster that was hurt less by the park, thus giving us a home field advantage?
Constructing a roster full of left-handers is difficult because they’re rare (How many left-hitting catchers are there? Note that the M’s have one of the very few down in Tacoma.) And rare-but-valuable things tend to be very expensive (note that the M’s used a first round draft pick to get him).
I like Safeco a lot. I’d be really disappointed if we changed it to make it easier to hit. There’s a reason I’m not a Reds, Rangers, or Phillies fan.
Maybe because you don’t live in Ohio, Texas, or Pennsylvania?
So I guess you weren’t a Mariners fan when they played in the hitter-friendly Kingdome?
If you look at the dimensions of the fields, Safeco is about 5′ deeper than Dodger Stadium; combine that with cooler air and damper balls much of the year and how many of Beltre’s warning track outs would have been HRs? If you look at Safeco compared to another AL ballpark that is notoriously hard on right-handed power hitters, Yankee Stadium, Safeco’s dimensions are pretty close except in the corners — Safeco has a blackhole along the LF foul pole that is 30′ deeper than the stadium in the Bronx (on the other hand, to its credit, Safeco doesn’t have that cheap-shot “porch” at the RF foul pole).
Also with Cirillo’s 156 AB’s to Beltre’s 380, there’s a reason Cirillo career is getting revived. It probably has to do with platonning with Corey Koskie (who bats left and is no longer on the active roster)and being only used in limited situations where his chances to succeed are greater. Put him in every AB, every game, and his numbers would surely decline.
And benefitted from it not at all.
I wouldn’t say “not at all”; I think he’d rather be a Met right now. He also probably has more endorsemenet opportunities in New York, especially if the Mets go to the series.
I thought that the Kingdome as a hitter’s park, or as a power park, had been overstated. My memory is that it also played a a big strikeout park. I don’t have numbers, though.
I read a couple reports on here about the Padres coveting AB:
Greatsportsnews.com
They are also looking at Lowell and Ensberg (though both highly unlikely).
I want to thank you for giving birth to my new bad management nightmare, Dave:
They unload Beltre to San Diego and THEN adjust SafeCo.
Please assure me that that’s not gonna happen. Even if you have to lie to me.
~~~
Two other tidbits, since it seems clear some here didn’t catch the thread on SafeCo adjustments…
1) SafeCo is the only new ballpark that has never made adjustments. It’s not the kind of thing you often get perfect right out of the box, so why assume, when there is so much evidence to the contrary, that they did?
2) It does not hurt eveerybody who plays here equally. It does a full half of its damage to Seattle, and the other half is divided among every other team that plays here. We are taking an enormous lion’s share of the damage as the home team.
Do you guys like it if Barry Bonds is our designated hitter next year?
We’d need a solid bench to make up for the games he’d miss, but I’d take Bonds, yeah. He’s still really good.
Kingdom was a homer happy park. I don’t think a park would affect strikeouts. Randy Johnson definately did though!
Hey, maybe we can get the city to pay for moving the fences!
Kingdom was a homer happy park. I don’t think a park would affect strikeouts. Randy Johnson definately did though!
The Kingdome was home run friendly, but it’s effect on offense as a whole was overstated.
Parks definitely do effect strikeouts. Dolphins Stadium in Miami increased them by 12% over the past four years, while Coors Field decreased them by 12%. Park’s have significantly more effects than people realize.
Do we like what? Safeco dimensions with Bonds hittig in it? The idea of Bonds playing for the Ms? Bonds isn’t coming here. He either stays with the Giants, retires, or DH’s for the Angels in SoCal where he lives (he’d probably be willing to DH for the A’s but Oakland isn’t going to pay him what he thinks he deserves). Right now, with all the legal issues hanging over his head, I wouldn’t be surprised if “his knee” causes him to retire.
You may not think a park could affect strikeouts, but my memory is that the Kingdome increased them significantly, long before Randy Johnson arrived. There was speculation that the background could cause it.
I believe Shea increases strikeouts too.
I remember reading that the Kingdome’s status as a homer park was much exaggerated, probably because of the great power hitters we had. Like I said, I don’t have the numbers.
63 – I’m not saying the team should be made up entirely of lefties. But you could prefer lefties, and stay away from guys whose value was tied up in being righty pull hitters.
We could build a team based on high batting averages (risky though that is) with some lefty power.
How many left-hitting catchers are there?
Gregg Zaun is having a pretty good season, too.
So I guess you weren’t a Mariners fan when they played in the hitter-friendly Kingdome?
I wasn’t actually (I was an Expos fan), but that’s beside the point. In 1995, for example, baseball wasn’t yet dominated by hitters’ parks. Most parks currently being used are pretty new. How many NL parks are older than Coors Field? 3?
These little bandbox parks are boring; Safeco’s park effects give it statistical character. I’d like to see someone recreate the Polo Grounds.
The Kingdome was home run friendly, but it’s effect on offense as a whole was overstated.
Thanks for the correction.
What is it about parks that affect strike-outs? I recall Boone wanting a solid black backgroun in CF, rather than the trees or whatever it was before. Other than the background, behind the pitcher, is there anything else?
I doubt that the M’s high strikeout rates in the Kingdome had anything to do with park, and probably had something to do with 20 years of bad players (or however many years they played in the concrete playpen).
Put Cirillo in Safeco and what do you get? As I recall, Cirillo was a far more uptight player than Beltre, and imploded with all the pressure he felt to perform.
It’s pretty obvious that Beltre has been guilty of over-thinking his approach. If you are thinking at the wrong time, you become a player with no “confidence” because you don’t trust yourself to make the right decision if you don’t evaluate it first. It’s a common ailment is baseball, and a testament to Beltre’s natural ability that he can still be a serviceable player even while suffering this affliction. Contrary to Beladux’s conclusion, Beltre is playing “too smart”, rather than not smart enough.
General visibility, maybe?
re 76
I think the problem here is not that Safeco favors lefties, but that it favors them so extremely and punishes right handers so extremely.
Not sure that extremeism is that charming….
It affected both teams.
And the M’s had more strikeouts at home than on the road. It was a park effect, occurring through many years.
That is interesting that a park can effect strikeouts. Is it due to atmosphere? Or as scraps said general visibility?
can the park affect strikeouts? how about some quantitative data so support the opinion?
If you try to build a roster that has a built-in disadvantage of severely limiting the effectiveness of 60% of the talent base you have to draw from, you are hurting only yourself.
I mean, it’s not like we wouldbe the only ones trying to get left-handed sock. Naming one catcher?
It makes absolutely zero sense to start this game by giving YOURSELF a massive handicap.
Chavez Ravine was mentioned, and I think it’s a good example. I love the park, it’s a pitcher’s park where GOOD hitters can succeed.
Very few, if any, parks are perfect out of the box. Why would we assume that SafeCo is, with so much evidence to the contrary?
No one is talking about wholesale changes, they’re talking about an adjustment. That shouldn’t scare anyone.
When you have as much money and future invested in guys like Beltre and Sexson (and our young “core” is primarily right-handed, too) it makes sense to not hamstring them from opening pitch.
can the park affect strikeouts? how about some quantitative data so support the opinion?
Buy a copy of the 2006 Hardball Times Annual. Dave Studeman did an article called “They Play in Parks” that has all kinds of data.
Do you guys think I make this stuff up?
It would be pretty funny if you did.
I am not in favor of moving our fences, but our lineup definately makes a case for doing just that.
Lopez, Betencourt, Beltre, Johjima, and Jones will all be negatively affected by Safeco’s dimensions. (Sexson hits enough the other way, and far enough that I excluded him). That is five of nine everyday players who would be better offensively by adjusting the fence. Now, can we say that the M’s increased offensive productivity would be greater than visiting clubs? I don’t know.
No one is talking about wholesale changes, they’re talking about an adjustment. That shouldn’t scare anyone.
I think we need to start a campaign to move the fences in, but focus on adding seats where the fences used to be. Who can argue against more seats?
Of course, the counter to “let’s fix the park to help our righty power” is that Jarrod and Jamie, as LH flyball pitchers, are going to be hurt by that.
That being said, Jarrod sucking ass is a more acceptable outcome than Beltre AND Sexson. (Jamie may well retire at the end of the year and make it moot as far as he’s concerned.)
No I don’t think Dave makes this stuff, but like Derek’s poll recently (tampering with poll results), it would be pretty funny indeed.
I notice that Dave has not yet assured me that the club wouldn’t be so stupid as to trade Beltre and THEN fix the park.
I wish he’d make that up.
Wouldn’t that be the Marlins who gave him the contract?
I would really like Safeco to be a park that favors pitchers (although not overwhelmingly so), but that is proportioned fairly to both lefty and righty hitters so that the M’s have more options on roster construction. Building Safeco to benefit lefties and penalize righties has proven to be a real problem. The FO has tried to land impact left handed power bats every off season during the 6 years Safeco has been open, and have come up with only Ibanez. Meanwhile, the cavernous proportions of left center continues to prey on the confidence of most of their other investments….
By my rough calculations, I get Beltre at 0.067 HR/FB at home and 0.068 HR/FB on the road this year. Those aren’t exact splits, but I think they’re probably pretty close. I find it interesting that if his HR/FB rate is the problem, these splits don’t necessarily suggest that the problem is Safeco, although the dimensions of the park would seem to suggest that it should be a problem.
Did someone say something about a left-handed hitting catcher with sock? What about Ben Davis! He was a left-handed hitting catcher with socks.
Do I think you make this stuff up, Dave? Hardly. But someone did insinuate that the Kingdom caused higher strikouts, and because I really don’t want to research the data to refute the idea (my unsupported opinion is that the M’s had bad players and swung for the fences more often – an indirect effect), I wanted the person putting the theory on the table to provide some quantitative data to support statements like “And the M’s had more strikeouts at home than on the road. It was a park effect, occurring through many years.” If so, show me. That’s how effective discussion should be, anyhow – through proof instead of hyperbole.
98 – So, if I understand this, you don’t want to do the work yourself, but you think someone else should be obligated to do it for you.
The work has been done, look it up. Dave even gave you a reference.
I think everyone here falls under the same “unwritten” rules that if you make a claim, back it up. Otherwise, why bother?
Besides, if you are going to interject yourself into a discussion, why not read up and find out what’s actually going on? That way, you don’t have to insult someone to make your point.
Also, and this is just kind of a hypothesis, but it seems like we can sort of get a handle on how lucky Beltre was on balls-in-play by looking at his BABIP and subtracting his LD% from it. Line drives aren’t going to get converted to outs very often, and it’s certainly tough to say a hitter is ever lucky when he gets a hit on a line drive. Anyway, his monthly splits for BABIP-LD% read like:
0.040 — April
0.136 — May
0.197 — June
0.173 — July
Unless AB was getting robbed on a bunch of line drives (which I don’t really recall as being the case), it looks like almost everything he hit that wasn’t a line drive got fielded for an out in April. I saw him play in April, and part of that was definitely on him, but it seems like he might have just been a bit unlucky at the same time.
Do I think you make this stuff up, Dave? Hardly. But someone did insinuate that the Kingdom caused higher strikouts, and because I really don’t want to research the data to refute the idea (my unsupported opinion is that the M’s had bad players and swung for the fences more often – an indirect effect), I wanted the person putting the theory on the table to provide some quantitative data to support statements like “And the M’s had more strikeouts at home than on the road. It was a park effect, occurring through many years.†If so, show me. That’s how effective discussion should be, anyhow – through proof instead of hyperbole.
You don’t seem to understand how park effects are calculated. If the M’s had bad players, they’d play badly on the road as well. When there’s a consistent, noticable difference between how both the home and road teams perform in a specific park versus the average of the rest of the parks over several years, it’s folly to believe that it’s the players that are creating the difference, when they are a variable, and the park is the only constant.
Your theory doesn’t need to be refuted by data. It can be refuted based on faulty logic alone.
Speaking as the “someone”, I said from the start that I didn’t have the numbers but was relying on memory of studies done. So sue me. This is a conversation, not a debate; when I have numbers, I provide them, and when I don’t I say so up front.
The factors that seem most important to me are the characteristics of our current team. In Beltre and Sexson, we have two huge contracts that we’ll almost surely carry for years, and they’re RH power hitters. From what people have posted here (not to mention two wall-scrapers yesterday). it seems that Adrian could pick up some HR’s from a shorter fence. My gut feel about Richie is that he’d gain some as well, but not as many as Beltre. The point that we may have only Washburn as a fly-ball starter next year is a good one, too.
OTOH, it wouldn’t bug me if they left Safeco as-is IF they got a big lefthanded bat that believes in dinosaurs.
One thing that seems weird about AB is that in 2004 he seemed to be going the other way a ton – it almost felt like most of his HRs were in the RF alley. It looks like he’s actually gotten more pull conscious at Safece, which would make no sense – unless 2004 were an aberration maybe due to his ankle/foot injuries.
Simple point: what if the M’s really didn’t strikeout in the Kingdome more often than on the road? Someone said they did, I asked for the numbers they were basing their statement on. If they hadn’t done the work already, then why make the claim? Until we have something to argue about, any statement made is made in logical vacuum.
My hypothesis is silly only if there is data to refute it, which puts it on the same level as the initial claim – silly.
But you do bring up another interesting point. I wouldn’t automatically discount behavioral effects as a park factor, but such factors are probably impossible to identify as a direct effect (especially using statistical analysis).
G-Man, you also should add in Johjima, Lopez and Jones- also RH hitters. Conversely, the only LH hitters of note who might get hosed some would be Ibañez and (whenever he shows up) Clement. Doyle, Reed, Choo and Ichiro are more line-drive/gap LH hitters and I think would be less affected by a pushed out fence on their side of the field.
Simple point: what if the M’s really didn’t strikeout in the Kingdome more often than on the road? Someone said they did, I asked for the numbers they were basing their statement on. If they hadn’t done the work already, then why make the claim? Until we have something to argue about, any statement made is made in logical vacuum.
His initial point was clearly stated as a speculation based on foggy memory. He wasn’t publishing a thesis paper. He even said “if I remember correctly…”, which makes his point very clear. Your reaction was over the top.
My hypothesis is silly only if there is data to refute it, which puts it on the same level as the initial claim – silly.
Your hypothesis is silly based on the obvious logical flaw in your assumptions. No data is needed to refute someone who begins their hypothesis with “since the sky is green…”
But you do bring up another interesting point. I wouldn’t automatically discount behavioral effects as a park factor, but such factors are probably impossible to identify as a direct effect (especially using statistical analysis).
Me either. Behavioral effects are very real, I’m quite certain, and I agree, they’re ridiculously hard to quantify. But for our purposes, a behavioral effect that is the direct result of a park effect is, for all intents and purposes, a park effect.
I missed the qualifying statement at the beginning of the discussion. My bad. However, if there as any “over the top” reaction, it was your post that implied I believe you make this stuff up. All I did was ask for numbers so I could see the effect. That simple request generated a whole sequence of progressively negative posts.
discussions about park effects always results in snarkiness….
Off topic: [deleted, off-topic]
All I did was ask for numbers so I could see the effect. That simple request generated a whole sequence of progressively negative posts.
And had you taken a fraction of the time you’ve spent during this sequence of posts actually looking up some numbers, it might have been possible to avoid all of this negativity. For reference, it took me no more than two minutes to find this page at Retrosheet. If you’re looking for old-timey splits, Retrosheet is a pretty decent place to start.
From where I sit, it’s pretty tough to accuse someone else of not contributing enough data, when you’re claiming they might be wrong without presenting any data yourself.
Hmm, very interesting thread. I hadn’t ever considered strike outs to be park-influenced; it’s certainly not on-the-surface evident that they should be (at least to me). But after thinking about it for even a few seconds it becomes obvious that there are several contributing park-related factors:
–The hitter’s eye. Remember the early days of Safeco, and how big an issue the glare was to certain M’s players (Boone, Cameron)? I’d like to see K rates from before/after the installation of the current hitter’s backdrop.
–Atmosphere. Probably most notable at Coors Field, where the thin air is known to have a pronounced affect on the break afforded to breaking balls. Flatter curves/sliders = more balls put into play, and fewer swings and misses.
–Amount of foul territory. Oakland is noted for its huge amounts of foul territory, meaning more pitches popped up down the first or third base lines are caught for foulouts. A park with very little foul territory (Fenway, for example) would intuitively have higher strikeout rates, as batters have those pitches turn into foul strikes rather than foulouts, meaning the batter now has to take another pitch deeper into the strike side of the ball/strike count. This probably would lead to higher numbers of pitches seen per plate appearance, as well. Sure enough, Boston, at 3.93 pitches/plate appearance, leads the Majors in this regard (per the stats at The Hardball Times). No home/road splits are given, though.
Looking at THT, I find no home/road splits of teams’ batting or pitching strikeouts per game.
#112– hmm, after adding Alomar & Mike MacDougal..
Man, a lot of speculation and misnomers in these posts. Here’s the book on Beltre:
1. Don’t compare his numbers (or his frown … WTF???) to 2004. His 2004 was an obvious anomaly. His 2005 numbers were pretty much consistent with his previous career numbers, which came, as has been pointed out, at another pitcher’s park, Dodger Stadium.
2. Beltre can’t hit breaking pitches:
AVG on pitch types swung at vs. RHP
FB: .318
CB: .207
SL: .174
vs. LHP
FB:.341
CB: 0-for-17
SL: 0-for-31
3. Moving to No. 2 has given him more fastballs to hit because he follows Ichiro (pitchers don’t want to give Ichiro chances to run on offspeed pitches). Thus, his better numbers since moving to No. 2.
Hm? Were his home/road splits as prounounced as they are this year?
#113 – that link is depressing. The M’s had OPSs of .850 and .840 in 1996 and 1997, including .851 and .815 on the road. Sigh.
116 – That’s not “the book” on Beltre… it doesn’t explain his home/road splits, it doesn’t explain his April, where he wasn’t hitting anything, let alone breaking pitches, it doesn’t explain 2004, which you can’t just throw out completely, and it assumes that his rookie year and surgery year were his exact career norms.
Also, his better numbers started before his switch to the 2 hole.
I’m not at all disputing his helplessness on some types of pitches… but it’s not one thing with Beltre.
1. No they weren’t, as discussed here many a time. That ship’s sailed, sorry you missed it.
2. Sure
3. Has it? Really? Is there anywhere I could look up pitches he’s seen by spot in the lineup to verify this assertion?
Dave –
So the rumor is circulating out there that the Mariners are interested in picking up Todd Walker as their left handed DH to compliment Perez. Any substance to this rumor? Also, who might we have to give up to acquire Walker?
I think the problem here is not that Safeco favors lefties, but that it favors them so extremely and punishes right handers so extremely.
Not sure that extremeism is that charming….
Extremism in the defense of lefties is no vice!
3. Moving to No. 2 has given him more fastballs to hit because he follows Ichiro (pitchers don’t want to give Ichiro chances to run on offspeed pitches). Thus, his better numbers since moving to No. 2.
This works as a reason if and only if there was a substantially higher number of times that Ichiro was on base than when he was batting third AND that pitchers would pitch him differently if there was one out and no out.
That doesn’t pass the sniff test to me….
Meche for Heilman per ESPN, nothing confirmed yet.
Dirk,
I’ve been hearing that deal on and off for the past two weeks – until you hear a press conference being announced, don’t buy it.
Yeah, I never really believe the ESPN daytime talking heads.
BTW, I would gladly do a Mateo for Todd Walker swap.
This talk of trading for a lefty DH, combined with the noticable absence of certain Australians from Seattle, is alarming me. They are going to recall him eventually, right? It is a bit sinister that they are persisting with Everett as it is, and if they bring in someone else to DH…
This works as a reason if and only if there was a substantially higher number of times that Ichiro was on base than when he was batting third AND that pitchers would pitch him differently if there was one out and no out.
Beltre started out the year batting 5th and then moved down to 6th or 7th as he slumped. Meaning Ichiro would never (or almost never) have been on base when he was batting, until he moved to #2. He’s only batted 3rd this past weekend.
Here are his splits by spot in the order:
2 301/366/532
3 333/385/333 (12 AB)
5 102/170/122 (49 AB)
6 252/312/357 (115 AB)
7 308/379/346 (26 AB)
This could be totally coincidence because he started out the year stinking it up in the #5 slot and gradually came around as he sank down the batting order and then came on strong once he moved to 2.
Hm. OK.
On the other hand, my point is more along the lines of small sample sizes where it would make a difference. How many times would he have batted with Ichiro on as opposed to batting fifth or sixth with no one on?
The effect of having anyone who can run on base in front of you isn’t just breaking pitches it’s also lessened concentration, altered mechanics (moving to the strech or even the slide step) and also pitch selection. Maybe there’s some good data out there about it, and if there is I’d want to see it, but the main point is there are more effects to someone on base than just pitch selection and that a lot, if not all, of those effects aren’t Ichiro specific.
I find it interesting that a post about Beltre’s struggles turned into a park effects debate. Beltre, in my mind, shows particular flaws that won’t be solved by moving the fences around.
While the park effets might cause roster building issues, within the controlled situation of 1 game, both teams are punished equally. So perhaps trying to build around the park shouldn’t be our only goal. If we have 9 really good righties, playing against 9 average righties, we should still win more often than not…
How have honest to goodness good hitting righties faired at safeco? Edgar (declining albiet), A-rod, Boone (on Steriods albiet
j\k) Why did they do well, what types of hitters were they?
SEGUAY…
Parks effects on K’s… I beleive the thin air in Coors causes the ball to have less movement on breaking balls… That’s just something I heard on TV once… HR parks might cause a more aggresive approach by both batters and pitchers, and might also effect lower quality plays with less dicipline more than better hitters, so the fact that the Mariners were usually pretty bad in the dome, may have excentuated this, even when adjustments are made for road performance… Maybe… I’m no expert, just throwing ideas out there to get knocked around.
On
Well, Boone and Edgar were both ready and willing to go the other way…and so was A-Rod (the short time he had at the Safe)
So I suppose we’ve now greatly increased our talent pool from power hitting leftes to include righties that go the opposite way… Would “greatly” be overstated, who’s our options when one is looking for a opo-field righty?
Broadcast, why does Beltre hit so much better out of SafeCo than in? Why does one problem with him preclude another?
As to the park… the point is that why should we care if things are equal in the confines of one game? That means that other teams have the disadvantage of playing at SafeCo a handful of times a year, where the Mariners get the disadvantage 81 times a year.
If it was a two team league, I wouldn’t care. But it’s not and the Mariners are only hurting themselves.
Fun with double situational splits.
I’ve only gotten done compiling before/after June 1 stats for AB w/r/t batting average so far, but it’s kind of funny.
Before June 1:
.220 — bases empty
.250 — runners on
After June 1:
.310 — bases empty
.290 — runners on
This, despite the fact that we would expect AB to hit better with runners on all of the time, regardless of who the runner is, because the pitcher has to pitch from the stretch, etc. So the whole “Ichiro is causing more fastballs and thus making Beltre better” theory doesn’t hold water–AB’s actually doing worse with runners on base vs. bases empty situations since he’s moved to the 2-hole.
133 – Edgar was one of the best hitters in baseball, and Boone had a window of being the best hitting second baseman in baseball. Then, rapidly, not so much.
That’s not greatly increasing any pool.
And why self-limit at all? Why hurt ourselves at all? What’s the point? The only goal is to find some balance.
The idea is not to reinvent SafeCo to work for Adrian Beltre, the idea is to optimize the park. Why should anyone assume we got it perfect the first try? No other new parks have, they’ve all adjusted.
134:
It hurts us 81 times, it also hurts the opposing team 81 times. Keep in mind this is kind of philisophical argument. I agree with all your points, but I kind of feel like we’re oversimplying the situation.
Safeco doesn’t have an effect on games played by other teams elsewhere, they either win or they lose. When we play on the road, we either win or lose. So what’s left, is a series of 81 individual isolated games played at safeco, where each team is hurt just the same. If we make it easier on righties, then it will be easier for thier righties…
whooosh!
there’s the point, going right over someone’s head
So, the splits get even wider for Beltre when we look at slugging average:
Before June 1:
.297 — bases empty
.303 — runners on
After June 1:
.600 — bases empty
.482 — runners on
So if there is some sort of benefit to Ichiro being on base, Beltre sure hasn’t taken advantage of it yet. He’s just plain hitting better these days. (I’d go through OBP, but I think the point has been made well enough by now.)
Each game we play features two teams playing in the same park. I don’t see how park effects can affect one more than the other except as a result of the home team’s roster construction.
So are you saying that roster construction is insignificant?
except as a result of the home team’s roster construction.
I don’t know why you’d die, except I shot you.
The roster construction is the whole point.
#140: well, i’ve got an oregon state education but i’ll try that one on for size…
The Ms play at Safeco 81 times. A division rival plays there maybe 8 times. The point is to construct your roster to take advantage of your home stadium park effects assuming your rivals won’t have rosters as optimal.
Me thinks an Ms roster optimized for Safeco would give them an inherent advantage in 81 games that may in an average year translate into maybe 4-5 wins (40-50 runs)…. In a good year…who knows? I’m basically blowing numbers out my arse like Braveheart shoots flames. I’ve probably underestimated the advantage if the roster was truly optimized and was good.
Not to put words in Dave’s mouth, but here is what he is saying: The Ms are missing a significant opportunity to legally cheat.
140: The Mariners play 81 games every year at Safeco Field, whereas the Reds play 81 games every year at Great American Ballpark, a band box. If you have identical hitters, one a Mariner and one a Red, the one playing for the Reds will hit better. That is why we adjust for ballparks.
140 – Roster construction is the big issue. It kills us. It is nigh impossible to construct a roster indifferent to SafeCo effects, it is definitionally going to be subpar because you are drawing from a much smaller pool… you have no flexibility in free agents or trades.
How much better would we be right now if Beltre was hitting as well at home as he does on the road? A .185 difference in OPS.
Or Sexson, who has a .129 difference in OPS?
Johjima has a .131 difference.
Lopez has a .138 difference.
All righties that SafeCo punishes.
Should there be a difference in home/road splits because SafeCo is a pitcher’s park? Sure, but not that massive.
Other teams don’t have to take any of this into account because they play only a few games here… but we end up with a disappointing roster because we play 81.
Not to put words in Dave’s mouth, but here is what he is saying: The Ms are missing a significant opportunity to legally cheat.
Wouldn’t that be a position in favor of keeping the fences the way they are?
The way I see it is like this. Say there are two hitters on the free agent market, and you would expect each to hit .300/.400/.500 in a neutral park. One is left-handed and the other is right-handed. Except, when you put them in Safeco, you get something like a .270/.370/.450 right-handed hitter and a .310/.410/.530 left-handed hitter. Clearly, you’d rather have the left-handed hitter. If you had $50M to sign one of the two players, which would you throw it at?
Except, that’s not the way the world works. There aren’t an even number of equally good left-handed and right-handed hitters on the market. In fact, there are usually more right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters. And then, what happens when someone else signs those left-handed hitters to a ridiculous amount of money that you can’t afford? You’re resigned to signing a right-handed hitter for money that says he’ll hit .300/.400/.500, even though you know he can’t come close to that at home. By limiting the number of players who can be successful in your park, you’re making it harder to construct a good team.
(Similarly, LHP benefit more from this park set-up than RHP, and there are fewer LHP on the market than there are RHP. Thus, the M’s feeling the need to overpay for a LHP–Washburn.)
Then I don’t think you were being clear, Dave.
What I’ve been hearing here is the desire to make Safeco less weird by adjusting the fences. More weird should be where the real advantages are.
The solution should be through roster construction, but roster construction alone. Fiddling with the fences is pointless. Either you’re just giving yourself a different problem to solve or you’re giving away your potential advantage.
The point is….The Ms front office KNOWS this. They aren’t quite THAT stupid. The practicalites of Safeco and trying to obtain players for Safeco are trumping (BY FAR) the theoretical advantages the place would give.
Or, to look at at another way, the M’s need a DH. Let’s assume that we’re ignoring Tacoma and only looking to the trade market. We want to go get ourselves an available bat for the stretch run.
Carlos Lee – nope, Safeco will kill him
Alfonso Soriano – nope, Safeco will kill him
Jose Guillen (before he got hurt) – nope, Safeco will kill him
Well, crap. That leaves us with David Dellucci (actually, a good idea…), Jeromy Burnitz (ick), and Sean Casey (maybe) as potential targets. So if Gillick or Littlefield ask for the moon, and we decide we don’t want to pay that much for a rental player who is a role player, well, we’re screwed.
Safeco takes us out of the running for the guys who could actually make a difference, thereby eliminating the pool of players we get to choose from.
The White Sox don’t care that Soriano won’t hit well in Safeco – it’s a trivial point to them. To us, it’s clearly not, and effects the players we can acquire.
That’s a problem.
The solution should be through roster construction, but roster construction alone.
No, you aren’t quitch catching it.
His points are that
a) the construction of the stadium overly penalizes right handed hitting; the stadium should give you an advantage, but not to the point where it kills the right handed bats YOU need for playing outside of Safeco., and
b) the costs for getting a team that takes advantage of Safeco is above and beyond the costs of obtaining equivalent righthanded bats.
And these points aren’t independent; they compound each other.
147 – I don’t understand how you have read all this and come to those conclusions.
The solution should be through roster construction, but roster construction alone. Fiddling with the fences is pointless.
Did you read the other thread on this, Evan?
Build me a line-up of left-handed hitters. Just try.
At catcher, your options include Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, Victor Martinez, A.J. Pierzynski, and Gregg Zaun. That’s your available pool of players to choose from. Good luck!
Or, heck, let’s try third base. There’s Chipper Jones, Chad Tracy, Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock, Corey Koskie, and Aubrey Huff (who really shouldn’t be playing third base).
Shortstop’s even more fun. Carlos Guillen, Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes.
Second base: Chase Utley, Jose Vidro, Todd Walker, Orlando Hudson, and Adam Kennedy.
So, you’re now limiting yourself to 4-6 players per position, when the rest of the league gets 30-40.
And you don’t see why this isn’t a problem?
This is the same kind of stuff that Eddie went through. A horrible April and hasn’t been very bad since.
I think there’s a trap in trying to tailor a team too much to your home stadium…it may become a team that can ONLY win at home.
This pretty much sums it up:
1. Safeco is a pitcher’s park mainly because it brutalizes righthanded hitters-that unfortauntely handicaps the M’s ability to build a roster.
2. There is a way to alter the park to make it easier to formulate a roster that has a significant home advantage while still keeping Safeco a pitcher’s park.
3. Safeco is like the weather…everyone is bitching about it but no one is doing anything to fix it…
Not being totally detached from reality, I had wondered whether dumping Beltre (and Sexton) might be the best of awful choices for the front office, but I’m fully back to the overpaid-but-good-enough support of Adrian, and believe that much of Richie’s trouble has been simple bad luck (his batted-balls numbers strongly suggest this).
The problems are the bottomless bit of Everett, and the Madness of Manager Grover – which has led me to abandon following live games and gamethreads, since it’s like having Lincoln’s characterization of Gen. Burnside in charge: far too infuriating and depressing to bear in person.
156 – I agree that, in my opinion, those two changes would help us more than anything else. And the DH one is SO easy, it’s maddening.
As I keep saying, the M’s can afford, both financially and roster-wise, to overpay a defensive whiz at third with a .725-.800 OPS.
They cannot afford to keep a non-hitting DH. Tha’s just ridiculous.
And if the M’s dump Beltre before they dump Everett, well that may be the last straw for me. I might have to go away and cry until there is a management, perhaps even ownership, change.
If I’m a right-handed powerhitter, there is no way I’m coming to Safeco even for 20% above market value….
Sure, it’s all about the money…. but hey, I’m not stupid. I’ve got to be able to get the next big contract too and by the way, they put 40 hr guys on the front of cheerio boxes not 25 hr guys… and then there is that hall of fame thing to think about….
That being said, Wily Mo Pena would absolutely brutalize Safeco… so what if he only hits it 420 feet instead of 500 feet there?
156 – I agree that, in my opinion, those two changes would help us more than anything else. And the DH one is SO easy, it’s maddening.
As I keep saying, the M’s can afford, both financially and roster-wise, to overpay a defensive whiz at third with a .725-.800 OPS.
Well, I can think of people who’d object to the latter.
But all the OTHER stuff really is maddening. Keeping C-Rex on the team? Stupid. Trotting Mateo out for so many innings? Madness. Overusing Bloomquist? Idiotic. Letting your bench rot? Mind boggling. Not using Perez in key situations? Stupefying.
All that stuff really pushes Beltre and his production waayyyy down the list.
#158: That being said, Wily Mo Pena would absolutely brutalize Safeco… so what if he only hits it 420 feet instead of 500 feet there?
Wily Mo would brutalize the Grand Canyon (if it were a ballpark).
Having said that, the way some posters here skewer Manny Ramirez for his defense, I would just to see how this crowd would take to Wily Mo’s.
Having said that, the way some posters here skewer Manny Ramirez for his defense, I would just to see how this crowd would take to Wily Mo’s.
With great glee and sharpened knives.
But there’d be folks defending that bat….and THAT would be the fun part, when there’s ammunition on both sides…
I have just one word for them DEEEEEEEEache….
The advantage for Beltre of moving to #2 isn’t just having Ichiro on base. It’s also having Ibanez behind him instead of C-Rex. Or Reed. That might get him some better pitches even with the bases empty.
“Well, I can think of people who’d object to the latter.”
Heh. Me too. But I probably used bad numbers, anyway. Let me rephrase it to say the M’s can afford to overpay an awesome defense, .775-.825 OPS, third baseman.
Because even with SafeCo, I think Beltre is an around .800 OPS guy. Heck, I think he finishes THIS season on the right half of the .700′s, .770 – .790 or so.
159: Especially when considering, as Dave pointed out, that taking ballpark effect into account, AB’s productivity may well be the best of any 3B in the West this season.
Ideally, if Beltre keeps hitting, I’d like to see him batting 3 and Lopez 2. Lopez doesn’t seem to have responded well to moving to #3. The only problem with that is that with Lopez in the 2 slot it was Bunt-o-Rama.
The only problem with that is that with Lopez in the 2 slot it was Bunt-o-Rama.
That, in itself, may be a reason to keep Beltre at the 2 slot.
Mat, thanks for the runner/non-runner splits on Beltre. I’d wondered on that issue, and the data puts it in perspective. It would seem natural that he’d hit better with guys on, but most of his deep hits and HRs that stand out for me in the last 7 weeks were with the bases empty, which his what the numbers say. Hmmm. A Food for thought. Oh, and Idahoinvader’s perspective on Adrian not hitting with RISP jibes with this too, at least in principle.
Adrian clearly presses. He presses with guys on. He presses trying to hit in Safeco. He presses because he cares. He presses because of the contract. He presses because he’s a flawed hitter and keeps trying to ‘make things happen’ from behind in the count where he finds himself quite often. I think he presses for some other reason’s too, but I don’t have any proof. To me, there’s a good chance that if he were traded to another team, his overall numbers would come up noticeably, though not to the moon, perhaps because he’d take some of that pressure off himself and just react more at the plate. That would tend to make moving him ‘look bad’ in retrospect, but that’s just the way it goes.
I’m totally NOT in favor of ‘dumping’ Beltre, far less moving him to take back a bad contract. He does some things well, is an outstanding defender, is a great teammate, and he has hit his way out of a catastrophic slump to disappointing but still useful numbers. If and when he’s dealt, it should be in a thoughtful deal which helps the team. I certainly think that this could be accomplished.