Future Forty Update for August
The Future Forty has received its monthly update. There are some notable departures in this version, as I’ve decided that its time to give organizational opportunity a little more weight in the rankings than I have in the past. Opportunity is obviously vital to a prospects success, and if the organization isn’t going to give him one, we necessarily have to downgrade the likelyhood that he’s going to become a major league player.
So, with that in mind, Guillermo Quiroz and Bobby Livingston have both been removed from the list. Yes, they’re probably better bets to have major league careers than some of the players listed, but at this point, it’s almost certain that those major league careers won’t come with the Mariners, and neither has any real trade value, making it unlikely that the Mariners will ever get anything of value out of either player. Also departing are Shin-Soo Choo (traded), George Sherrill (established major leaguer), and Michael Saunders (not as good as some other end of list guys).
Replacing them are some new names, as well as a mea culpa. A few months ago, I booted Luis Valbuena from the Future Forty as he hadn’t hit in several years and his defense was nothing to write home about. Well, pretty much starting the day after that, he started to hit, and hit well. He earned a promotion out of the Midwest League, and is now trying to hold his own as a 20-year-old in high-A. So, sorry Luis, I never should have dismissed you in the first place. Welcome back. Joining him as newcomers or returners to the list are Michael Wilson (numbers too good to ignore right now), Kuo-Hui Lo (interesting young OF prospect), Carlos Peguero (Wladimir Balentien part two?), and Anthony Butler (solid arm, showing decent stuff in pro debut).
You’ll notice that the list got quite a bit younger. The top levels of the system are really being thinned out by promotion and trade. This isn’t a problem, as this is exactly what a farm system is for, but the bulk of the talent in the minors is now several years away. Among current minor leaguers, the only ones you could realistically expect to contribute the rest of the year would be Chris Snelling, Eric O’Flaherty, and Francisco Cruceta, and none of them would play major roles for the big club. I’ve categorized only 7 of the 32 minor leaguers on the Future Forty as being in one of the top four tiers of prospects. The guys who are close to the majors are probably role players, and the guys with talent to be everyday players are several years away. The M’s farm system is going to be ranked quite low again this offseason.
However, that shouldn’t cause us to overlook the fact that the farm system is doing its job – stocking the major league club with young, effective, cheap talent. A huge portion of the M’s success this season can be tied directly to the players the farm system promoted in the last 12-18 months. We won’t be seeing another wave of talent like the one we saw get to Seattle in the last year, but we don’t need to.
One player specific comment, since the guy has been generating some buzz lately for his improved play.
I’m a known critic of Wladimir Balentien. In the past, his approach at the plate was so terrible that finding a major leaguer who had succeeded with his mentality and skillset was darn near impossible. I kept comparing him to Hensley “Bam Bam” Muelens, and while we acknowledged the potential was there, kept reminding everyone that the risk was even higher. Until he learned to control the strike zone and make better contact, his ability to hit major league pitching was going to be neutralized.
So, in the last month, Wladimir Balentien apparently got the memo. During July, he drew 24 walks and struck out 25 times in 93 at-bats. This is a guy who drew 33 walks all of last season. His 2005 walk rate was 6.1%. In July, his walk rate was 26%. That’s a ridiculous difference, and there’s no chance it was a fluke. Wlad has clearly worked on his patience at the plate, working counts, and laying off pitches out of the strike zone.
However, it has come at a high cost. Balentien’s calling card has been his power, and that is the one tool he has that projects to the major leagues. He’s going to live and die by how often he crushes the baseball. And while the walks went through the roof, the power took the elevator to the ground floor. In July, just 7 of his 24 wents went for extra bases, or a 29% mark. For the rest of the season, 31 of his 65 hits had gone for extra bases, or 47%. That difference is just as significant as the walk rate. 29% XBH/H in the minors is barely acceptable for a player with a broad base of skills; for a guy whose power is his only plus tool, it’s disaster.
In the last month, we’ve seen Balentien essentially convert himself from being Hensley Muelens into being Rich Becker. While the improved walk rate is an extremely positive development, it’s hard to think that its a coincidence that his power took a nosedive when his approach at the plate changed. I’ve often referred to skillsets as a sliding scale – the more you move one set of skills, other skills are often negatively impacted. Wlad needs to show that he can both walk and hit for power at the same time.
As always, feel free to use this thread as a catch-all for minor league questions, and I’ll try to answer as many as I can.
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As always, thanks for doing this. It’s one of the top features at this site. A couple of questions: How do you see the logjam at catcher sorting itself out down the road? Any idea who the PTBNL in the Broussard deal might be? I understand it’s likely a pitcher, but my question is whether it’s likely to be someone on the list.
Thanks for the update.
I didn’t see Tony Butler on the list, but you referenced him in your post. Can you give us a brief scouting report on him — looks like a live arm with control issues.
How do you see the logjam at catcher sorting itself out down the road?
I actually don’t agree with everyone who thinks the M’s have this vaunted surplus of catchers. Clement is a legitimate player, and he should be major league ready either late next year or early in 2008.
The rest of the crop is underwhelming. Rene Rivera sucks, Rob Johnson has no business in Triple-A and is a long ways from contributing in the majors, Guillermo Quiroz is unlikely to stick with the organization after this year, and Adam Moore is in low-A ball. Honestly, for all the talk of the organization being very deep at catcher, they don’t have a capable major league backup for 2007, and Clement is the only one of the minor leaguers who projects to be a regular in the majors.
Any idea who the PTBNL in the Broussard deal might be? I understand it’s likely a pitcher, but my question is whether it’s likely to be someone on the list.
It’s probably not going to be an arm that we miss that much.
Thanks for all the info. Does your Rising and Falling remarks correspond to a possible single point difference in the Reward/Risk column or is there more to it?
I didn’t see Tony Butler on the list, but you referenced him in your post. Can you give us a brief scouting report on him — looks like a live arm with control issues.
Butler’s on the list. Right above Tillman.
He throws 87-91, hits 92 occassionally, and features a big, inconsistent, loopy curveball. His fastball command is actually pretty good, and it has decent enough movement. Commanding the curve and developing a workable third pitch will be key for him going forward.
Any chance that the strange all power no walk to all walk no power swing of Balentien is just part of an adjustment period as he tries to become a more complete hitter? In other words, will the pendulum swing back to some acceptable level of power and patience?
Thanks for all the info. Does your Rising and Falling remarks correspond to a possible single point difference in the Reward/Risk column or is there more to it?
It’s more of a subjective thing. Essentially, it relates to whether the player is surprising or disappointing me in some way, performing in either a better or worse way than I had expected. The risk/reward ratings are based more on long term potential and are influenced quite a bit by scouting reports, while the rising/falling comments generally have more to do with a player’s recent performance.
I still don’t think Michael Wilson is going to be a good major league player, but his stock is on the rise since he won’t stop hitting.
Can you give us a little information on Carlos Peguero — who is he, where did he come from, and what kind of damage can he do?
Hi Dave – Good stuff, I enjoy reading the Future 40. Not to pick nits here, but isn’t Navarro with Tacoma now, not San Antonio?
Any chance that the strange all power no walk to all walk no power swing of Balentien is just part of an adjustment period as he tries to become a more complete hitter? In other words, will the pendulum swing back to some acceptable level of power and patience?
That’s the hope, certainly. You’d like to see him reach a point where he can incorporate a solid walkrate while still maintaining his home run power. His best shot to make it in the majors is to be a .250/.350/.500 guy, sort of like the new Russ Branyan. But until he shows he can both get on base and drive the ball simultaneously, there are still reasons to be skeptical.
Can you give us a little information on Carlos Peguero — who is he, where did he come from, and what kind of damage can he do?
He’s a favorite of Jason Churchill, which is usually a good thing. International signee, played in the Dominican Summer League last year, and didn’t do that well (.251/.337/.441) as an 18-year-old. Now, a year older, he is just hitting the crap out of the ball in the AZL. Stats don’t matter-at all-in the AZL, but the scouting reports on him all talk about prodigious power. He still struggles with breaking balls, like pretty much every kid his age, but the power is for real.
One of the things we’ve lauded here at USSM is the amount of prep scouting they’ve done, particularly the dedication to putting “two eyes on every guy” they draft.
I know I in particular have heaped praise on the team for this, and predicted that this kind of approach would hopefully pay off in later round picks that turn into something interesting, draft-and-follow guys, and potentially unsigned free agents both domestic and international.
Have we seen any returns on the team’s massive ground operation?
Do you have any guesses/thoughts about which of the “Projects” is most likely to graduate to “Projected Regular” status? I’d assume from the risk/reward numbers that you’re highest on the first three pitchers on the Project list, but since pitchers are less predictable is there a position player you particularly like on the Project list?
Have we seen any returns on the team’s massive ground operation?
Absolutely. The M’s have done very well with their international signees the past few years, including guys like Peguero, Halman, Lo, and even Balentien. These guys were not high profile international free agents, but the M’s have done a nice job collecting a group of interesting prospects without getting in a bidding war.
You’d also have to look at guys like Mark Lowe, Ryan Feierabend, and Eric O’Flaherty as scouting success stories – they’ve all blossomed into something they weren’t when the M’s selected them, and none were elite prospects going into the draft. Lowe, especially, is the kind of great find in the 5th round that exemplifies why we like Bob Fontaine so much.
Dave, do you think Travis Blackley still has a shot at a decent career with the Mariners? Or is the team not seriously looking at him as a potential fifth starter in 2007?
It looks like he has had a pretty good rebound year at SA and I’m not sure that too much more time in the minors will benefit him. If not with the M’s, than maybe they should move him to give him a shot somewhere else?
I recently read that Jorge Campillo was throwing again, possibly in Peoria. Do the M’s still see him as a possible future option in the rotation or bullpen? And how would he compare to other pitchers on this list?
Do you have any guesses/thoughts about which of the “Projects†is most likely to graduate to “Projected Regular†status? I’d assume from the risk/reward numbers that you’re highest on the first three pitchers on the Project list, but since pitchers are less predictable is there a position player you particularly like on the Project list?
Kuo-Hui Lo is the most polished position player in that group, but his gap power ceiling may keep him from ever being projected as a regular. The requirements aren’t as high for second baseman, so Luis Valbuena could probably move off the project list with a solid 2007 season. I wouldn’t say I particularly like Valbuena, though – I guess I’d say Halman is probably “my guy” out of that group.
Dave, do you think Travis Blackley still has a shot at a decent career with the Mariners? Or is the team not seriously looking at him as a potential fifth starter in 2007?
He has a shot, but it’s not a great one. He doesn’t belong in the majors next year, and he’s definitely behind Cruceta, Feierabend, and maybe even Baek on the list of guys who would get a shot.
It looks like he has had a pretty good rebound year at SA and I’m not sure that too much more time in the minors will benefit him. If not with the M’s, than maybe they should move him to give him a shot somewhere else?
I’d call this year a success, considering the arm problems, but he’s not exactly pitching well. Woolf Stadium is a huge pitchers park, and he’s still running an ERA near 4.00 with a barely acceptable strikeout rate. He’s had some encouraging starts, but the consistency isn’t there. I’d be fine with him spending all of 2007 in the minors, and reevaluating him in a year.
What’s the story with Floppert? I’ve seen very little mention of him anywhere since the Winn trade (just that he’s been listed as injured for some time now on your list). Any chance he’ll recover enough to ever be effective?
I recently read that Jorge Campillo was throwing again, possibly in Peoria. Do the M’s still see him as a possible future option in the rotation or bullpen? And how would he compare to other pitchers on this list?
No, probably not. Bavasi is a big fan of power arms, and Campillo is not one.
What’s the story with Floppert? I’ve seen very little mention of him anywhere since the Winn trade (just that he’s been listed as injured for some time now on your list). Any chance he’ll recover enough to ever be effective?
He’s still hurt and his stuff hasn’t come back. We knew he was a high risk guy when we acquired him. This happens sometimes with high risk guys. Occassionally, you get Francisco Liriano, but more often, you get Jesse Foppert.
How about Robert Rohrbaugh? I am shocked at how well this guy is doing after being aggressively promoted to AA. Potential 2008 rotation member?
How about Robert Rohrbaugh? I am shocked at how well this guy is doing after being aggressively promoted to AA. Potential 2008 rotation member?
There are a bunch of Robert Rohrbaughs floating around the minors. Command lefties without a plus pitch often succeed against inferior hitters. The dip in strikeout rate upon promotion to Double-A isn’t a good sign.
So no, probably not.
Is there any chance that any of the starters will get a shot this year at replacing Piñeiro, if he either ´regresses to the mean´ or is perhaps even traded (I see a rumor that Lopez is going to the BoSox)? If so, would it be Cruceta? Feierabend?
Is there any chance that any of the starters will get a shot this year at replacing Piñeiro, if he either ´regresses to the mean´ or is perhaps even traded (I see a rumor that Lopez is going to the BoSox)? If so, would it be Cruceta? Feierabend?
Pineiro’s unlikely to be replaced unless he gets hurt. He won’t be traded.
Cruceta probably comes up in September as a middle reliever, and almost everyone thinks thats his role in the majors. His command just isn’t very good, and he’s a 5 inning starter due to his issues with high pitch counts.
The M’s system looks strong with regard to high-upside pitching prospects. See, e.g., Morrow, Cruceta, Tillman, Butler, and Feierabend. My concern, however, is with the dearth of mashing corner OFs. I just don’t see anyone who projects as a masher on the corners. Kevin Goldstein recently ran his list of top corner OFs in the minors over at BP and the Mariners had no one on the list. (Wlad Balentien did receive an honorable mention.) As an aside, Dave, do you consider Kevin G. to know what he’s talking about when it comes to discussing the minors?
It is no secret that the M’s need a masher in the OF, particularly with the two outfielders locked in (Suzuki and Jones) not representing real power threats, despite their other skills. (And Raul Ibanez doesn’t qualify, either.) I think the M’s are a masher-on-the-corner away from potentially having a 4-5 year run of dominance in the AL West.
All this being said, Dave, do you see any hope in the minors for that real masher to emerge? Or are the M’s doomed to searching the FA lists in vain?
Slightly off topic Dave (and possibly a dumb question), but in comment 25 you used the word “command”. Until 10 or 15 years ago, everyone used to talk about “control”, but that word seems to have fallen out of favor, though you still hear it on occasion. Is there a difference, or are the two words interchageable? And if there is a difference, what is it, and how does it relate to evaluating a pitcher’s skill set?
Dave, I like that you took opportunity into consideration on this Future Forty.
Do you see Scott Atchison ever getting another opportunity with the M’s? There is a big movement in the M’s organization to give the younger guys more opportunities, and I see that squeezing out a guy like Atchison. He’s only had 20 appearances and 32 innings in Tacoma so far this year. I’d guess he’s more like roster filler for Tacoma, especially since he is now 30 years old. He is sporting a nice strikeout rate this year (7.6 per 9 innings), probably a result of repeating AAA for the third (?) time. I think that if he were given an opportunity in the majors that he could put together 3-5 years in the majors for the league minimum with a decent performance. However, I just don’t see him getting that opportunity with the Mariners.
Also, it would seem that Clint Nageotte must be getting his last chance down there. He’s really fallen quite a bit and at 26 is now one of the older guys on the list. What are his chances of turning things around either with this organization or with another?
The M’s system looks strong with regard to high-upside pitching prospects. See, e.g., Morrow, Cruceta, Tillman, Butler, and Feierabend.
Cruceta, Feierabend, and Butler aren’t high-upside guys. Feierabend’s got a shot to be a solid middle rotation starter, Cruceta’s probably a reliever, and Butler’s a guy with below average velocity and an inconsistent second pitch.
My concern, however, is with the dearth of mashing corner OFs. I just don’t see anyone who projects as a masher on the corners.
Balentien, Halman, and Peguero certainly project as mashers. It’s the flaws in the rest of their games that make them questionable long term major leaguers.
As an aside, Dave, do you consider Kevin G. to know what he’s talking about when it comes to discussing the minors?
I don’t agree with everything Kevin writes, but he’s not an idiot.
It is no secret that the M’s need a masher in the OF, particularly with the two outfielders locked in (Suzuki and Jones) not representing real power threats, despite their other skills. (And Raul Ibanez doesn’t qualify, either.) I think the M’s are a masher-on-the-corner away from potentially having a 4-5 year run of dominance in the AL West.
I’m not sure why you think Adam Jones represents no real power threat. I’m also not sure why the outfield has to have a power hitter. And I think the Angels might argue with you about your run of dominance, considering they have better young talent than we do.
All this being said, Dave, do you see any hope in the minors for that real masher to emerge? Or are the M’s doomed to searching the FA lists in vain?
I wouldn’t be surprised if one of Balentien, Halman, or Peguero turned into the kind of player you’re hoping for in 2-3 years.
Slightly off topic Dave (and possibly a dumb question), but in comment 25 you used the word “commandâ€. Until 10 or 15 years ago, everyone used to talk about “controlâ€, but that word seems to have fallen out of favor, though you still hear it on occasion. Is there a difference, or are the two words interchageable? And if there is a difference, what is it, and how does it relate to evaluating a pitcher’s skill set?
It depends on who you talk to, but I still here the words command and control used all the time, and to most of us, they have a different connotation. Josh Boyd gave a good talk about this at our feed several years ago.
Control is, for the most part, being able to throw strikes. Command is being able to put a specific pitch where you want it. Gil Meche has decent control but bad command, in my opinion. For the most part, he throws enough strikes, but its rarely where the catcher puts the target.
Felix Hernandez has excellent command of his curve and his change-up, and terrible comamnd of his fastball. Overall, he has decent control.
Hope this makes sense.
WRT Rohrbaugh, I think you may have been a little unfair in your characterization of his strikeout rate in AA. It is still at 7.0 per 9. Not terrible and certainly doesn’t portend a lack of success going forward.
Do you see Scott Atchison ever getting another opportunity with the M’s? There is a big movement in the M’s organization to give the younger guys more opportunities, and I see that squeezing out a guy like Atchison.
Atchison barely hung on, but in the end, I left him on there. I think he’ll get a September callup, and he’s good enough to impress in an 8-10 inning stint down the stretch. I think there’s a little hope for him left.
Also, it would seem that Clint Nageotte must be getting his last chance down there. He’s really fallen quite a bit and at 26 is now one of the older guys on the list. What are his chances of turning things around either with this organization or with another?
Nageotte’s certainly running out of time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him removed from the 40 man this offseason. His velocity is way down and his slider just isn’t what it used to be. There’s little difference between him and Sean Green at this point.
WRT Rohrbaugh, I think you may have been a little unfair in your characterization of his strikeout rate in AA. It is still at 7.0 per 9. Not terrible and certainly doesn’t portend a lack of success going forward.
7 K/9 in Double-A is bad, and yes it does.
I want to talk to Balentien’s coaches before I worry about the power loss. It could be they finally found a way to adust his swing so that he keeps his head still and can see the ball, and they’ll worry abut getting his power back later (not unlike what Alexis Rios did over the past couple of years).
Why did sherril fall off the list?
Your suggestion that one of Balentien, Halman, or Peguero could turn into a masher gives me great solace.
I think the M’s need a masher on the corner because I think they need at least one more power bat in the line-up and I don’t see it coming from elsewhere. Beltre? No. Lopez? 20 HRs, tops. Catcher? No, unless and until Clement develops and arrives. Other than Sexson, there is no real power threat for the M’s. And I think corner OF is the spot where they are most likely to find that player.
I like Adam Jones and I think he will develop some power, but I don’t see him as a “masher.” He is a 15-20 HR guy.
As for the Angels, bring them on. They do have great young talent, no question (Kendrick, Santana, Woods, etc.) But, I think the M’s will be right there with them, IF we can find a corner masher.
Alex Rios made consistent contact throughout his pre-major league career and was never much of a power threat. He was a career .293/.335/.401 hitter in the minors, and he hit .352 in Double-A at age 22, but his skillset was completely different than Balentien’s.
I don’t think the two are very similar at all. Rios was a crazy good athlete who could always make contact and his power has finally come around. Balentien is a mediocre athlete with crazy power who struggles at everything else.
I think the M’s need a masher on the corner because I think they need at least one more power bat in the line-up and I don’t see it coming from elsewhere. Beltre? No. Lopez? 20 HRs, tops. Catcher? No, unless and until Clement develops and arrives. Other than Sexson, there is no real power threat for the M’s. And I think corner OF is the spot where they are most likely to find that player.
There’s no minimum amount of home runs required for entry to the playoffs.
I like Adam Jones and I think he will develop some power, but I don’t see him as a “masher.†He is a 15-20 HR guy.
Adam Jones had 14 homers in half a season in Tacoma at age 20. You’re underestimating his power.
As for the Angels, bring them on. They do have great young talent, no question (Kendrick, Santana, Woods, etc.) But, I think the M’s will be right there with them, IF we can find a corner masher.
The Angels young talent blows the M’s young talent out of the water. The M’s are going to have to do a very good job of rounding out the major league roster in order to keep up.
36-
Jones is well-built for a kid, but I don’t think many people would be surprised if he were hitting 25-30 dingers a year when his body fills out more.
Why did sherril fall off the list?
It’s in the post. He’s an established major leaguer with little to no projection left.
If my fondest dream were to come true, and Doyle were to stay healthy for all of 2007, what kind of line would you project from him, assuming he’s hitting both lefties and righties?
Dave, thanks for this.
Tui seems overmatched at AA and has been rushed ahead of all the other high school hitters in his draft class, save Billy Butler. Alas, Tui is no Billy Butler. Any chance that sanity will prevail and he’ll be returned to high A, where his numbers were ok but didn’t scream out for a promotion?
Also, Balentein’s progress notwithstanding, the M’s minor league hitters are mostly looking like hackers. Even patient hitters like Clement aren’t drawing a ton of walks this year. And we know the big leaguers aren’t drawing walks either. Are the free swinging M’s the result of an organizational philosophy, a product of scouting and drafting choices, a coincidence, or a mirage?
Of course there is no minimum number of home runs required for playoff entry. But you have to score to win. And one of the best ways to score is to mash the ball. Winning it all can be done without great power (Angels, anyone?), but it is much more difficult. To pretend otherwise is foolish.
And while I agree with you that a (relatively) low strikeout rate at AA is not a positive, it is also not the death knell of your career. Even John Lackey had a sub-7 K/9 rate in over 150 innings of AA ball.
How many home runs do you see Adam Jones hitting in his prime?
If my fondest dream were to come true, and Doyle were to stay healthy for all of 2007, what kind of line would you project from him, assuming he’s hitting both lefties and righties?
.280/.360/.440.
Tui seems overmatched at AA and has been rushed ahead of all the other high school hitters in his draft class, save Billy Butler. Alas, Tui is no Billy Butler. Any chance that sanity will prevail and he’ll be returned to high A, where his numbers were ok but didn’t scream out for a promotion?
You’d hope so, but there’s been no talk of sending Tui down for the last month of the minor league season. My guess is he continues to struggle, and they have him repeat Double-A next year. We can only hope that this ridiculous promotion didn’t crush his confidence for good.
Also, Balentein’s progress notwithstanding, the M’s minor league hitters are mostly looking like hackers. Even patient hitters like Clement aren’t drawing a ton of walks this year. And we know the big leaguers aren’t drawing walks either. Are the free swinging M’s the result of an organizational philosophy, a product of scouting and drafting choices, a coincidence, or a mirage?
It’s a combination. The M’s certainly believe in aggressiveness as a key to success, and they don’t preach patience to any of their kids coming through the minors. Also, by pushing the kids through the system quicker, they’re overmatching kids against better pitchers than they should be facing, which contributes to the poor BB-K rate.
It’s a problem, and not one that’s likely to be resolved while Bill Bavasi is the GM. On one hand, aggressive promotions give us Mark Lowe’s brilliance this year, but this is a clear downside to the philosophy.
and coincidently, David Andriesen weighs in on the ‘thin’ Mariner farm system today, in the PI.
Of course there is no minimum number of home runs required for playoff entry. But you have to score to win. And one of the best ways to score is to mash the ball. Winning it all can be done without great power (Angels, anyone?), but it is much more difficult. To pretend otherwise is foolish.
Focusing on “acquiring a masher”, instead of filling out a roster with good players, is even more foolish.
And while I agree with you that a (relatively) low strikeout rate at AA is not a positive, it is also not the death knell of your career. Even John Lackey had a sub-7 K/9 rate in over 150 innings of AA ball.
Lackey had significantly better stuff than Rohrbaugh does. Guys with strikeout stuff who don’t miss bats are in a whole other class than guys with fringe stuff who don’t miss bats.
How many home runs do you see Adam Jones hitting in his prime?
30 without too much of a problem. His best years will probably look something like .280/.340/.500.
I understand that Sherrill fell off the list because he’s “an established major leaguer with little to no projection left.” But given that, why are Hernandez, Lopez and Betancourt still on the list?
Because Hernandez, Lopez, and Betancourt are 20, 22, and 24 respectively. Of those three, only Betancourt is even close to his full potential right now. He’ll probably go off the list at years end.
Great article, thank you. I was curious if you could add a column for a player’s current level. For example Felix is a 10 potential, where would he be now?
Dave,
I know info on the young AZL guys is pretty tough to come by, but have you heard anything about Alex Liddi or Doug Salinas? Liddi, in particular, is a huge kid who might belong in the ¨potential masher in a few years¨ category.
I saw someone mention a trade rumor involving the BoSox, and with the discussion of lack of opportunity for Quiroz, I’m wondering if there might be any discussion of moving him to Boston? I know the non-waiver deadline has passed and all, but Quiroz passed through waivers once already this year (does that suffice, or does he have to pass through waivers again for trade purposes?). What kind of return might we expect in such a deal, or is Quiroz too marginal a prospect to generate any interest? I know the return won’t be much, but is there anybody realistic whom you like in Boston’s system?
52 – What I’ve seem is that Javy Lopez is headed to Boston.
You’d hope so, but there’s been no talk of sending Tui down for the last month of the minor league season. My guess is he continues to struggle, and they have him repeat Double-A next year. We can only hope that this ridiculous promotion didn’t crush his confidence for good.
Is there much in the way of solid evidence that overpromotion stunts career development? The little I’ve seen on the topic seems to hint that it’s inconclusive.
Dave, you wrote:
It’s a combination. The M’s certainly believe in aggressiveness as a key to success, and they don’t preach patience to any of their kids coming through the minors. Also, by pushing the kids through the system quicker, they’re overmatching kids against better pitchers than they should be facing, which contributes to the poor BB-K rate.
It’s a problem, and not one that’s likely to be resolved while Bill Bavasi is the GM.
– Your second point sounds absolutely right. I hadn’t thought about that. As for the first, do you have any sense of where the philosophy that minor leaguers should just swing away comes from? I mean, I know it worked for the 2002 Angels, but it seems kind of weird to focus on the Angels’ success that one year, not the more consistent success of high OBP Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinal teams in recent years, not to mention the 2001 M’s. Is the idea that good hitters will learn discipline in the majors? Is it that taking too many pitches makes young hitters overthink at-bats? That tiring out opposing pitchers makes the hitting environment less challenging for hitters? I know Bavasi and his team aren’t dumb, so I’m just searching for the rationale. Thanks.
Two questions related to players acquired in trades…..didn’t the M’s get another pitcher in the Villone deal last year, or was it the Winn deal, and what is the outlook if any on that player?
The M’s got Travis Chick for Eddie Guardado. What kind of a prospect is Chick. I noticed that he has been frequently traded already in his brief career. What do you see as his potential.
Great article, thank you. I was curious if you could add a column for a player’s current level. For example Felix is a 10 potential, where would he be now?
Interesting suggestion. I’ll think about it.
I know info on the young AZL guys is pretty tough to come by, but have you heard anything about Alex Liddi or Doug Salinas? Liddi, in particular, is a huge kid who might belong in the ¨potential masher in a few years¨ category.
Liddi, Avila, and Peguero are all drawing similar comments from folks who have seen them in the AZL. Peguero’s the furthest along right now – Liddi is a bit behind.
I saw someone mention a trade rumor involving the BoSox, and with the discussion of lack of opportunity for Quiroz, I’m wondering if there might be any discussion of moving him to Boston?
Nope. Quiroz has no trade value.
Is there much in the way of solid evidence that overpromotion stunts career development? The little I’ve seen on the topic seems to hint that it’s inconclusive.
No one’s done a definitive study on the issue, in part because its hard to determine what an “overpromotion” is. But there are certainly examples (Jose Guillen, Aramis Ramirez) of guys who were promoted aggressively and failed to develop for their original clubs.
– Your second point sounds absolutely right. I hadn’t thought about that. As for the first, do you have any sense of where the philosophy that minor leaguers should just swing away comes from? I mean, I know it worked for the 2002 Angels, but it seems kind of weird to focus on the Angels’ success that one year, not the more consistent success of high OBP Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinal teams in recent years, not to mention the 2001 M’s. Is the idea that good hitters will learn discipline in the majors? Is it that taking too many pitches makes young hitters overthink at-bats? That tiring out opposing pitchers makes the hitting environment less challenging for hitters? I know Bavasi and his team aren’t dumb, so I’m just searching for the rationale. Thanks.
The M’s believe in aggressiveness across the board. Aggressive hitting, aggressive baserunning, aggressive promotion. They favor putting pressure on opponents and challenging their young players. A low walk rate is a natural biproduct of aggressiveness. They aren’t intentionally avoiding guys who walk, or discouraging players from taking pitches, but the practices they are implementing are counter to producing a legion of high on base sluggers.
The M’s would gladly take a guy like Jim Thome in the middle of their order, but they are unlikely to develop that kind of hitter as long as they’re preaching aggressiveness all the time.
Two questions related to players acquired in trades…..didn’t the M’s get another pitcher in the Villone deal last year, or was it the Winn deal, and what is the outlook if any on that player?
Villone brought Bazardo and Flannery. Neither looks like a major leaguer at this point.
The M’s got Travis Chick for Eddie Guardado. What kind of a prospect is Chick. I noticed that he has been frequently traded already in his brief career. What do you see as his potential.
Chick is a guy with a decent arm, some command problems, and an inconsistent outpitch. He’s also had health problems, and most people prefer him as a reliever. I’d compare him to what J.J. Putz was before he got moved to the bullpen.
L. Jacob wrote:
. . . do you have any sense of where the philosophy that minor leaguers should just swing away comes from? . . . Is the idea that good hitters will learn discipline in the majors? Is it that taking too many pitches makes young hitters overthink at-bats?
Dave’s already spoken to the Mariners’ philosophy on this, but overall, it has been my experience in talking to “old time baseball guys” (for lack of a better term — and this encompasses mostly coaches, but also some scouts) that there is still very little regard given to the ability to draw a walk. It seems to me that many view this as almost a lack of readiness to hit, and that (as was mentioned with Balentein above) changing one’s approach to look at more pitches comes at a cost of sapping power for many guys. Personally, I think these people ignore the benefits of (s) having more guys on base, and (b) getting more pitches to hit in “hitter’s counts,” but nevertheless I think the overall notion of aggressiveness is still pretty pervasive in all levels of baseball. Bavasi, et al., are not alone in this kind of thinking. While I agree with you that the Sox, Yankees, Cards, and other relatively high-OBP teams have had more than their share of success recently (and a smart FO would seek to emulate that), and the “Moneyball” approach has generated a lot of attention, they are still in the minority, it seems to me. I would also bet that, if asked, a guy like Bavasi would say that he would rather have a guy coming up be aggressive, and learn patience/discipline/strike zone judgment after he learns what MLB pitches he can hit. You’ve seen some of that philosophy in the way he describes how he’d like to see Betancourt develop as a hitter, for instance.
Can anyone point me to the post Dave put up about Cole Hamels on his major league debut this season? I’ve played around with the search for a while and found nothing.
I’m baffled by the “aggressive swing” approach for young guys. Isn’t plate discipline (or, to put it in terms Hendu might use “waiting for something you can handle”) considered an “old player” skill? Something that guys learn to do after their eyesight and reaction time taper off enough that they can’t make contact with everything like they used to? And something they have to learn to do in order to keep a roster spot? Kind of like Jamie being a “crafty” pitcher once he realized he couldn’t throw is fastball past Major Leaguers…
And if so, then I have to ask, if it’s good for the geezer, isn’t it good for the spring chicken too?
Dave, about Little Tui, is your sense that he’s just overmatched, or is there something fundamentally wrong?
I would also bet that, if asked, a guy like Bavasi would say that he would rather have a guy coming up be aggressive, and learn patience/discipline/strike zone judgment after he learns what MLB pitches he can hit. You’ve seen some of that philosophy in the way he describes how he’d like to see Betancourt develop as a hitter, for instance.
Is there evidence that this even doable? And if its doable, that it’s effective strategy??
The M’s would gladly take a guy like Jim Thome in the middle of their order, but they are unlikely to develop that kind of hitter as long as they’re preaching aggressiveness all the time.
Ironically, this means we’re unlikely to see anyone with Edgar’s skillset come through the minors.
And yeah, this…
The M’s are going to have to do a very good job of rounding out the major league roster in order to keep up.
scares me, because so far, Bill’s strength is NOT filling out the major league roster:
Aurilia
Spiezio
Reese (with no backup plan, necessitating the twin disasters of Wilson Valdez and Mike Morse)
Washburn
Everett
There’ve been good decisions in there too, admittedly- but calling this a “very good job of rounding out the major league roster”… uh, no.
Can anyone point me to the post Dave put up about Cole Hamels on his major league debut this season? I’ve played around with the search for a while and found nothing.
http://ussmariner.com/2006/05/11/cole-hamels/
Is there evidence that this even doable? And if its doable, that it’s effective strategy??
Almost everyone increases their walk rate as they age. But very few go from total hack to patient hitter, so no, its probably not the best strategy.
gwangung – Some players have done this. Sammy Sosa comes to mind as one prominent example (though it may be a stretch to call it “discipline” with his K numbers, he went from BB:K ratios like 33:150 early in his career, and even 34:134 and 45:174 as late as ’96-’97, to 116:153 and 103:144 in his late prime). The fact that some guys can do it doesn’t mean all or even most can, however, and it begs the “is it an effective strategy” question you asked. Mind you, I don’t agree with that approach, I just wrote what I think Bavasi might say, given his apparent philosphy of overall aggressiveness and what I’ve heard him say about Betancourt, in particular.
Is there evidence that a hitter can learn strike zone judgment in the minors, either? In other words, is this a matter of developing talent or selecting talent?
I was always under the impression that this is a matter of pitch recognition which is the result of a hitter’s vision and reaction time. Those are not necessarily things a guy can learn.
Does a hitter choose to swing at bad pitches, or can he simply not tell that they’re going to come in off the plate until it’s too late? I don’t know the answer to that.
Why do you consider Tillman riskier than Butler?
Also, do you have any info on some of the starters in the low minors? Are there any interesting live arms or solid pitchability guys who might take a Lowe-type (or maybe not that drastic) jump next year?
I´m thinking specifically about guys like Vega, Escalona, Santiago (back from injury), Bello, and Guaramato, but I´d be interested to hear your opinion on who might be worth keeping an eye on among the guys who didn´t make the cut.
Good question Ralph, but I don’t think it is as much of an either/or as you make it out to be. A hitter can have good vision and reaction time (the “raw skills” for pitch recognition?) but lack enough experience to have good pitch recognition, right? I agree with you that vision and reaction time are not teachable skills, but I think pitch recognition is something that can be developed.
I think pitch recognition is something that can be developed.
I’m skepitcal personally – I think a guy who has good pitch recognition is probably picking the spin up very early as a result of very good eyesight.
Is there evidence that a hitter can learn strike zone judgment in the minors, either? In other words, is this a matter of developing talent or selecting talent?
Yes, there is. It’s a long conversation, and I don’t have time to go back and quote all the sources, but I’ve done quite a bit of work on this, and I can tell you that the evidence shows that strike zone judgment can certainly be learned.
I’m skepitcal personally – I think a guy who has good pitch recognition is probably picking the spin up very early as a result of very good eyesight.
That can be the case for some players, but there are way too many examples that would run counter to this philosophy for it to be true most of the time.
Why do you consider Tillman riskier than Butler?
Tillman’s an idiot.
Put it this way — you have to have very good eyesight and very good reactions to succeed as a professional hitter alone – forget about developing strike zone judgement and plate discipline. Two guys with equally awesome vision can and often do have very different pitch recognition skills. Pitch recognition isn’t just about “seeing the ball”; it is about knowing what you see (which is also about learning pitchers), what you can and can’t do with a pitch. Likewise, plate discipline isn’t just about pitch recognition.
I agree that some hitters seem “born” with better plate discipline than others, but I still think that much of what we think of as plate discipline can be developed, given the fact that most professional hitters already have the physical gifts (great vision and reactions) necessary to the skill.
How do you figure your “Risk” number? For example, why is Felix an “8?” Because the M’s are likely to blow out his arm, or because you think he might not pan out somehow?
More majors than minors – anybody know who has the claim on Andruw Jones?
Wow, seems a little harsh. Has Tillman’s “idiocy” manifested itself in any way since he signed with the M’s?
I assume you are basing this statement on more than just his MySpace page? (Although I will concede that that page goes a long way to supporting your statement.)
73 – No word yet, and I’d lay bets that the Braves would pull the waiver back if anyone did claim him.
How do you figure your “Risk†number? For example, why is Felix an “8?†Because the M’s are likely to blow out his arm, or because you think he might not pan out somehow?
It’s a subjective number. For Felix, it’s based around the history of 20-year-old pitchers and the fact that his mechanics and conditioning aren’t the best.
More majors than minors – anybody know who has the claim on Andruw Jones?
It doesn’t matter. If ESPN ran a story for every big named player who gets claimed on waivers this month, they’d have to post an article very 8 seconds. It’s so stupid that they’re even bothering with it at all.
Wow, seems a little harsh. Has Tillman’s “idiocy†manifested itself in any way since he signed with the M’s?
In talks I’ve had with people who have been around him, he’s not exactly endearing himself to the organization. Work ethic matters, and his isn’t very good.
I agree that some hitters seem “born†with better plate discipline than others, but I still think that much of what we think of as plate discipline can be developed, given the fact that most professional hitters already have the physical gifts (great vision and reactions) necessary to the skill.
sure, discipline should improve over time – i was just talking about recognition. recognition is just the ability to actually see what pitch has just been thrown, discipline would also include the anticipation (knowing what pitch is likely to come) and a better awareness of your own capability to hit different types of pitches. i was just talking about recognition.
Good hitting is a combination of God given talent and teachable skills. A duh! statement. Great hitters are different from everyone else so I’ll let that go. Good hitters see the spin when they are given a good look at the ball but more importantly, they understand what they are likely to get. As pedantic as Fairly gets, listen to what he says, he is, by habit, tracking an at bat and then understanding what is likely to be thrown. If a good hitter gets fooled he does. More often he sees what he expects. Beltre, for example, doesn’t seem to understand what will come his way when, Edgar did. I don’t like aggressive at bats over patience because I think you teach bad habits. Just hack and ML pitchers will eat you up.
Interesting. I guess that explains why Butler was promoted and Tillman is still in the AZL (posting good numbers, to be sure). I find it so hard to believe that someone with that much talent could (potentially) waste it by having a bad attitude. But, it happens all the time — Dukes, Hamilton, Young (?), etc. Sad but true.
Dave,
If you believe Adam Jones can hit 30 homers in his prime, the big question is at what age do you believe his prime will occur? How far away are we from seeing a 30-homer Jones? And what will his production likely be in the seasons before that prime?
Tell us how you really feel about Tillman, Dave!
Josh Hamilton didn’t have a bad attitude – he had an addiction to cocaine. From most accounts, he’s a pretty good guy with a lot of demons.
Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young, though, no argument.
If you believe Adam Jones can hit 30 homers in his prime, the big question is at what age do you believe his prime will occur? How far away are we from seeing a 30-homer Jones? And what will his production likely be in the seasons before that prime?
I’m guessing Jones peaks from 25-29. So, about 5 years. And I think he’s probably going to struggle for the next year or two, so we’ll probably see .250/.300/.380 or something like like that until 2008.
Man, when threads die, they die quickly, don’t they?
It’s lunch time on the west coast. The people who refresh all day at work are eating.
I’m on the west coast, and that just reminded me that I should probably go get some lunch!
86 – I took an early lunch. Now I’m backed up with production and my air shift. lol
Forgive my ignorance – I’m old and unhip. What’s the deal with Tillman’s MySpace page?
I’m on the East Coast and it is just too hot to eat anything but a popsicle, or maybe an amber liquid lunch…
Dave,
I see Jeremy Reed still on the list. When is he going to be ready to come back? Will he spend the rest of the year in AAA maybe to find his stroke? Where does he fall in the M’s plans for next year?
I’m on the East Coast and it is just too hot to eat anything but a popsicle, or maybe an amber liquid lunch…
Hey, today’s cooler than it was yesterday. Though this week has been something out of the burning pit of hell.
I see Jeremy Reed still on the list. When is he going to be ready to come back? Will he spend the rest of the year in AAA maybe to find his stroke? Where does he fall in the M’s plans for next year?
He probably won’t be ready to play until mid-September, at which point the minor league seasons will be over. It’s unlikely he’ll get any rehab games in. Reed is a pretty good bet to be traded this offseason.
Forgive my ignorance – I’m old and unhip. What’s the deal with Tillman’s MySpace page?
On the page, he acts like a typical 18-year-old HS jock who is used to being the big man on campus. That is, before he made it private, probably at the behest of his agent.
Lots of professional ballplayers have ridiculously stupid myspace pages. That’s not the problem, here.
Dave, any opinion on why Reed went from being considered an important piece of our outfiled, to being trade bait?
Is he just not as good a player as some people thought, or are they that high on Adam Jones? (asked Thingray, back from lunch with some tasty Kentucky Fried Chicken!)
Correction: “Outfield”.
Dave — If we assume that the M’s are the team that’s claimed Andruw Jones (and that’s a pretty big assumption), would you trade Adam Jones straight up for him?
What is the problem then? His numbers do look impressive in AZ. So he has a bad attitude and is a cocky teen. Can you expect all of these highschool students to be model citizens when they’re use to a certain kind of treatment. The question is, is there talent and can it be harnessed into production? Is the Organization trying to send a message by not promoting him a la Butler? They obviosly thought enough of him to make him a high second round pick. He has averaged 1.5 K/inn and only allowed on BB in his few Peoria appearances
93 — I agree with your analysis. Until we see some indication that Tillman’s allegedly “idiotic” personality actually impacts his on-the-field performance, I think it is unfair to criticize him.
Dave, any opinion on why Reed went from being considered an important piece of our outfiled, to being trade bait?
Because he’s failed to get any better since the day we traded for him.
Dave — If we assume that the M’s are the team that’s claimed Andruw Jones (and that’s a pretty big assumption), would you trade Adam Jones straight up for him?
They aren’t, and no.
What is the problem then?
Work ethic.
His numbers do look impressive in AZ.
Numbers in Arizona do not matter at all.
So he has a bad attitude and is a cocky teen. Can you expect all of these highschool students to be model citizens when they’re use to a certain kind of treatment. The question is, is there talent and can it be harnessed into production?
No, but we can also realize that kids who don’t work particularly hard are higher risk prospects than ones that do. Which was how this whole conversation got started in the first place.
Is the Organization trying to send a message by not promoting him a la Butler?
He hasn’t earned a promotion.
They obviosly thought enough of him to make him a high second round pick. He has averaged 1.5 K/inn and only allowed on BB in his few Peoria appearances.
Remember, this entire conversation started because I was asked why I consider Tillman a higher risk prospect than Butler. I then called Tillman an idiot, which I’ll stand by. That’s the extent of the bad things I’ve said about him. I’m not saying they shouldn’t have drafted him, or that he can’t succeed.
I’m just saying he’s not the brightest bulb in the world, and he doesn’t work very hard.
Dave, was this view of Tillman’s, shall we say, lack of cranial capacity a reason why he slid out of the first round (where many had projected he would go) to the M’s in the second round?
He slid out of the first round because he had a terrible senior year of HS. His stuff was very inconsistent, and he looked awful at times facing what should have been inferior talents.
Tillman might have a first round arm, but he’s never been a first round pitcher.
If every pitcher had Moyer’s mind, think how good some of them could be!
Unfortunately, there’s a ton of great arms out there with little or nothing in their skulls.
Tillman might have a first round arm, but he’s never been a first round pitcher.
Another million dollar arm, ten cent brain?
If so, then he’s not worth time considering until he pumps some value into his head….
Another million dollar arm, ten cent brain?
He’s 18. He’s still got time to grow up. I’m in no way writing him off.
This whole conversation got blown way, way out of proportion.
In all fairness, I think that started when you chose to call him an “idiot.”
He is an idiot. I’m not the one making massive assumptions about his future based on that.
Fair enough, but the term “idiot” is a bit harsh and inflammatory.
Moving along, do you see Doug Fister as anything more than roster filler? Is he projected for relief long-term?
Is Fister still pitching in Everett?
Fair enough, but the term “idiot†is a bit harsh and inflammatory.
Okay. I take it back. So far, he has yet to show a willingness to work hard or be teachable, and that makes him a higher risk prospect. Better?
Moving along, do you see Doug Fister as anything more than roster filler? Is he projected for relief long-term?
He’s got a chance be more than roster filler. He’s in the Rohrbaugh class of pitchers – fringe stuff, solid command, we’ll have to wait and see. He’s got good sink on his fastball, which helps offset some of the lack of stuff. A few of these guys make it, most don’t. I haven’t figured out a good way to discern which ones will make it ahead of time.
Dave, what’s your opinion on Greg Halman? I keep hearing great things about him from people who have seen him play in Everett, but didn’t he get hurt recently in a brawl?
Fair enough. I see how these attributes make him a higher risk.
“Is the Organization trying to send a message by not promoting him a la Butler?”
My apolgies if this question was unclear. I meant, are they trying to make more of an example out of Tillman by not promoting, in an effort to maybe deflate the ego a little? Also, do you have an idea where he projects as a starter or middle relief? I can’t claim to fully know how the AZL games work, and it’s rare for any pitcher to get more than 3 innings of work, but I noticed he’s not getting starts.
Two questions (or, more accurately, two series of questions):
(1) Heard anything on Nathan Adcock? It looks like he is struggling a bit in the AZL, but I wondered if you have any reports on his projectability?
(2) Any developments on the Cam Nobles front? I don’t think the M’s have signed him, but I thought I saw several weeks ago that a signing was inevitable. Has that changed? What kind of a prospect do you think he is?
I’ve got a couple of questions.
I noticed Varvaro had one appearance in the AZL and hasn’t pitched in a month. Is he still hurt, or did he re-injure himself after that outing?
Also, only a couple of pitchers sporting a T-Rats uniform have looked any good. The two that seem to have really good numbers are Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Joe Woerman. Any thoughts on them?
So Dave, would it be fair to say that while Balentien has improved his walk rate, he hasn’t improved his plate discipline? That is, does the drop in XBH that goes with his increased walk rate probably mean that he is now watching some juicy meatballs cross the plate in an ill-fated attempt to improve by being more patient? It sure seems to me like the numbers are telling us that he probably hasn’t improved his pitch recognition any, just that now he’s erring on the side of walks rather than on the side of power.
there are certainly examples (Jose Guillen, Aramis Ramirez) of guys who were promoted aggressively and failed to develop for their original clubs.
coughPiratescough. In both cases, not only were they moved along aggressively (see Kendall, Jason) but when they arrived it was along with ridiculously high expectations from the media & public — Guillen was tagged with ‘then next Clemente’ based pretty much on a few throws home from RF — and the Pirates have never seemed to do much to develop players, especially after they hit the big league club.
Another guy I’m keeping a bit of an eye on: Austin Bibens-Dirkx. He’s a righty side-armer we drafted this year out of Portland, OR. I was actually at the game he appeared in back in June at Cheney, on his way to Wisconsin via Everett. Seems to be doing somewhat well as a bullpen arm in Wisconsin. Perhaps not a top-40 guy right now, but could be a useful bullpen arm in the near future. Looks like he’s missed some bats in Wisconsin (22 Ks and only 13 hits in 17.2 IPs; with only 2 BBs).
His pitching motion is very interesting, if not somewhat effective…
What do your folks say ’bout him?
Dave,
Something I’ve been wondering about for awhile: The Ms seem to be much more heavily invested in Venezuela than in the Dominican Republic. The Ms have scored major scouting/development successes with Venezuelan players in the past couple of years. Meanwhile, the Ms’ top Dominican prospect is Carlos Peguero, a 19-year-old with major contact issues in rookie ball.
This isn’t a 1-year phenomenon, either. Unless I’m mistaken, every Latin-American talent the team has signed and sent straight to the states in the past few years has been Venezuelan. As far as Dominican “products” go, it’s basically Soriano (who we kind of lucked into after signing him as an OF), Mateo, and not much else (David Ortiz was signed by the Ms’ old head of Dominican operations).
The Mariners don’t even own their own Academy space in the Dominican. Instead, they lease space in their head scout’s father’s complex (Epy Guerrero).
Why are the Ms so far behind most other teams in investing in the place that has produced the most major leaguers of any country other than the US? Is it a problem of reputation, or is there a deliberate reason the Mariners don’t sign any of the top dollar guys in the DR?
I’m out for the night, guys, so I’ll get to the rest of the questions tomorrow. Don’t worry, I’m not ignoring them.
To go back a bit to pitch recognition, I figure this might be relevant. People (and rats, for what it’s worth) who are repeatedly exposed to things which look/taste/sound very similar get better at telling them apart, so young hitters watching curveballs and fastballs might very well learn to differentiate them better just as a matter of experience. A slightly different phenomenon is that if you actively train people to discriminate between extreme examples of two categories (like Coors Lite and Sierra Nevada), and then try and train them to discriminate between more similar examples (say Yeungling Traditional and Yeungling Premium), they generally learn much better than if you just try and train them all along with the similar examples (all Yeungling, all the time) – this latter effect gets used quite a lot to try and teach Japanese speakers to tell the difference between /l/ and /r/ sounds. If we figure that low minor league pitchers throw curveballs and fastballs that look less similar than their more polished brethren in AAA or the majors, then, I’d think that pitch recognition could be quite nicely trained by a steady progression up through the grades, and aggressive promotion might be a real hindrence for a young hitter. Y’all pretty bored now, right?
Seattle is also the furthest ML city from the DR. It may have something to do with getting kids interested in signing here.
Uh huh. That doesn’t do much to explain the Venezuela thing though, does it?
116:
The M’s are basically the furthest city from all of Latin America.
My guess would be the Ms have taken a sort of moneyball approach, invest in scouting heavily areas other teams have overlooked, they emphasized Asia and Venezuela while other teams were all flocking to the DR.
Admittedly I don’t have proof to back this theory. With the proximity of DR to the United States and large populations in East coast cities such as NY and Miami, I believe there would be a preference to stay on that side of the country. This is why Minaya has set up huge Mets opperations and contiually signing young talent, sometimes before half the league even are aware of them.
And again this is only an assumption, Venezuela does not have quite the proximity nor as big of established communities in the US. Giving other ML cities a fair shake.
Of course it could be the Mariners did not or do not have the connections as some of the other oginizations in DR. While it produces a boat load of Major League talent it is a very small country, there are probably a handful of people that have these kids ears and push them in different directions. The Mariners then decided to focus their attention on another up and coming hot bed in Venezuela, where they could get in early and start to develop relationships with the right people and create a pipeline.
It’s like how do you get the best athletes in Florida to come play for the Dawgs’ football program? You don’t. Or the Mariners ability to land top Japanese talent due to their Pacific Rim location.
Just a theory. Maybe someone with better connects came expound upon the problem.
118-Agreed. Other teams were already well established there, so you have to find new areas for talent.
Learning in baseball isn’t exactly scientific because teaching isn’t scientific. Having been exposed to a variety of intense learning environements (immersion Russian and Spanish for the NSA, graduate school, division 1 baseball, recreational golf, etc.), I have pursued every shortcut to learning in existence – looking for that competitive edge that would help me separate from my peers.
What did I learn? Some people have an affinity for learning certain subjects or skills, and existing teaching systems don’t do much other than separate the wheat from the chaff.
Baseball is no different. How many minor league development programs are using anything more than personal experience of instructors to develop young players? Baseball instruction, almost universally, is an art form rather than a scientific endeavor. Instructors use feel and intuition and homeopathic remedies to try and fix “problems” or deficiences in players.
In some isolated cases, that universal axiom is being challenged with technology. Motion tracking technology is being used to help instructors spot biomechanical flaws not apparent to the naked eye. As feedback systems from such observations improve, we will be able to teach students with the requisite genetics (speed, strength, fast-twitch muscle fibers, etc.) the proper form and timing to leverage those genetics to hit, run, catch and throw at extreme levels.
For the time being, we have to wait and see which students “get it”, and which don’t.
re 118
To an extent, that’s true.
Colombia, though it’s still a soccer-first country, has been scouted by the M’s for some time now, and has yielded some guys who are pretty interesting, like Emiliano Fruto, Julio Santiago (when healthy, which is rarely, conditioning may be an issue), Jair Fernandez, Marwin Vega (if he ever gets his command down). Ismael Castro would be on the list had injuries not wrecked him, to a large extent, and Carlos Arroyo was never anything to write about, but the point is that they’ve done their homework there. There’s also some players from places like Ecuador and Nicaragua down in the low levels, but we haven’t seen much returns out of them yet that cause them to stand out.
The M’s also have done a decent job in Taiwan. Lo is probably the name to remember there, Chen could be a decent middle IF role player, and Huang could be something if he gets back to the US and gets the mechanical issues straightened out.
The M’s were among the first teams to scout Holland and Italy in any detail, and while that had its initial failures (Harvey Monte? Giuseppe Mazzanti? Francesco Imperiali? Anyone?), it seems to be paying off now that they have guys like Halman and Liddi, and have enough of a reputation there to play for the higher profile signings there as well.
Many teams at least try to find their niche in the international market and sign prospects from areas that they think will be successes later. While the M’s and other teams have helped open up Australia and Taiwan, clubs like the Brewers and the Royals are pouring their money into places like South Africa to see if they can uncover the next big crop of talent.
Thanks Dave.
Assuming Clement is ready for the majors by 2008, and that ready means ready to catch, does he collide with Jojima in the last year of his contract, or its extension? Of particular interest would be the premise that Mr. Yamauchi may expect Japanese stars on his team to stay on his team, meaning a scenario where Joe is at the dish for the long haul. Of course, what develops with Ichiro! and his contract situation may tell us some things.
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Don’t forget Oleg Korneev (the first Russian pitching prospect), J! The M’s have been much more adventurous than most teams in looking overseas for talent. They seem to think they can get better value looking elsewhere than the Dominican, which is a perfectly reasonable gamble to make, esp. as it’s not like they’ve got NO presence there. They’ve got a DSL team, it’s just not as big an investment in time/money as their VSL operation.
I’d also point out that the M’s seem interested in South Africa as well, having signed a couple of guys from there (like Andy Phillips this year).
Remember Andrew Miller? The guy the M’s passed in the draft? He signed with Detroit today for what looks like a reasonable amount of money and will be pitching with the big club in September.
Seems like they are rushing him just a bit.
FWIW, I would think that back a decade or so, Seattle’s location might well have been outweighed by the presence of Alex in the system…
126 – they’re not rushing him, he got a clause in his contract mandating a sept. call-up. He’s not there to stay. A number of 1st rounders try and get this clause – a few of them are successful.
Yeah, that’s not a *huge* amount of money, but i wonder what the early opt-out for arbitration could be worth down the road? I haven’t seen the contract details, or how it stacks up w/what Hochevar got.
I’m nitpicking your “risk” ratings, because I’m bored at work and a terrible nerd. I think you need to recalibrate your scale, since the numbers only run from 5-10, and there’s only one “5.” If Bentacourt only rates a 5, how do you get to 1? Be Wolverine from the X-Men so you can heal between innings?
5.5 should represent an averagely risky prospect, so guys with no real history of injury and 570 “good enough” ML at bats should be looking at 2′s and 3′s, IMHO.
Please consider this, the fate of Western Civilization hangs in the balance.
Dave,
You say the the Mariners implement practices that aren’t condusive to patient hitting. What exactly are these exercises?
I’m glad to see the re-eval on both Valbuena and Michael Wilson. There was good reason to drop both of them from the list, but now good reason to put them on. Luis had a very poor start to the year, but he’s only 20, finally picked up the pace, and is holding his own as you say at high A. It’s worth nothing that the entire team in Wisconsin is hitting like limp celery; clearly there’s something wrong with the park or the atmosphere. If Valbuena looks scrawny _next_ year, and is at the right level, then maybe, but it’s too early to give up on him yet. Wilson was defintely old for high A to start the year, and hadn’t done much last year, either. On the other hand, he missed a bunch of development time by not signing when he was first drafted, and he’s just flat out hit for much of this year, and as well or better at AA. There’s no way _not_ to put him on the list, although I doubt he’ll get out of AAA, frankly. But he’s a better _player_ then, say, Kenny Kelly was, so.
Balentien: he has made a major, major change in his game since late May when his walk rate started to climb. Yes, he may not be belting them out at the same rate _just right now_. He’s got a lot to learn to incorporate his newly found ability to judge the zone with his intent to murder pitches in it, and has only had 6+ weeks to make that adjustment. Let’s give him a little time. I wouldn’t be at all surprised for it to take into next year for Bad Wlad the Impeller to put it all together, supposing he does. Yes, he has to _prove_ it, I’m glad the Ms left him at AA to work on his game, and if by this time next year he still isn’t driving the ball while showing good strikezone judgment I’d be worried. But so far, he’s on song and on schedule. And the thing is, we know that the power is THERE. It’s not like he forgot how to swing. He belongs on the list, is all I’m really saying at this point. And not trade for turnip greens. If he doesn’t make it, then it hasn’t cost the Ms much of anything. If he puts it together . . . I like it.
To me, the Ms system has done quite well the last 18 mo.: They promoted a group who will be the core of the team for the next 3-5 years, plus trade bait for a couple of semi-regulars. That’s just what a system is supposed to do. If you want a superstar, you often have to go outside your own system, ’cause they’re too rare to count on drafting one. But a system should generate a core group of regulars to hold down costs and broaden the talent base. And be it said: Most of those guys were acquired before Bavasi and Fontaine came on board. That’s not a knock on the latter two, but evidence that the cupboard wasn’t as bare as it looked, and so the talent acquisition strategy of the prior admin wasn’t quite as harebrained as it appeared in the short term, either.
Oh and Exhibit A in why the promotion strategy of the present Ms FO isn’t a good idea: Bobby Livingston. He was promoted without any real though regarding how to use him; jerked around; got hit, and then was dumped back in AAA. He’s stunk since, and I wonder if he’s hurt. Regardless, if it’s Bavasi’s idea to push guys until they fail, then he’s achieved that here, and the decision to remove Bobby from the Forty I’m sure reflects an organizational decision to write him off. But whose failure is it? I’d say Livingston never even had a shot.
I’ve watched Bavasi do this for 3 years with pitchers. Not everybody is Mark Lowe. Some guys need to be worked with, and worked up. I can’t say that I think much at all of the present FO’s approach with developing pitchers. Jump and dump, more or less. Borderline guys will never get any kind of shot here to contribute. If that means that the team moves on quickly to bringing in better guys from outside the org, then maybe. If it means I get to watch the equivalents of Pineiro and Washburn soak up ~$12M while pitching like replacement guys, then no, not really. I’d rather have those replacement guys ’cause one or two of them will actually turn in better results for a couple of years.
” . . . One of Balentien, Halman, or Pegeuro.” Yeah, that’s what I hope for: if _one_ of those guys hits potential, that’s an organizational homerun. But I’m hoping one makes it. And I agree that having all three guys around to try for that payoff is the sign of a good scouting operation, and in particular that in no case did it take a bidding war to sign these guys. That’s just smart hustle out in the distant sticks.
Uhlmansiek is having a solid season, and that’s what to look for, he’s healthy. I don’t know aht to make of Yung-Chi Chen, but he just keeps hitting and playing like I should actually, you know, pay attention to him. I want to see what he does next year before I actually do, but if he’s still binging along then, then I will.
Adam Jones has good power hitting fastballs. The question is, can he fend off breaking pitches enough to get his money-pitches to hit? I think the answer will be yes, ’cause he’s grown steadily at every level so far, so I see him as a powerhitting OFer, and by that I don’t mean a Corey Patterson type, although that’s a comp from the other side of the plate.
Tuiasasopo: His promotion was TOTALLY ASSININE. He hadn’t shown he could do more than make contact with pitches at high A, hasn’t excelled at any level, doesn’t have a defined defensive position, and really is still learning to play baseball as a sport. This is the kind of move that makes me want a different GM than the one we have now, just Not How to Go About It. And the org of course won’t admit that this is _THEIR_ failure, by sending him back down, no; they’ll blame Mattie for ‘not being able to handle it.’ Tui should have been held in SoCal like Balentien was held in San Antone.
Chao Wang from China too, Marc. I was gonna mention Korneev, but I decided to stick to areas that are on the verge of doing something now. Haven’t heard anything about Russian baseball for a while now.
And it’s Anthony Phillips
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Not to detract from your post BelaX, but I wonder if part of B-Liv,s demotion, being jerked around, and sucking afterwards was Hargrove’s unwillingness to keep him on a schedule, which is improtant for any starter. He was given sparse opportunities and failed, whereas Lowe was the rare guy who grabbed the wheel and decided he was driving. It’s not often that things like that happen, but Hargrove doesn’t seem to always have patience for the normal learning curve. I’m pretty sure there’s a disconnect between Bavasi’s thinking and Hargrove’s there, but that’s just been a gut feeling of mine for some time now.
Perhaps for prospects from New York, since that’s where Alex was born.
Or from Miami, since that’s where he went to HS.
Dave, what’s your opinion on Greg Halman? I keep hearing great things about him from people who have seen him play in Everett, but didn’t he get hurt recently in a brawl?
No one questions the power. He can really put a charge in a baseball. Solid swing, no big mechanical issues, good athlete. Probably a corner OF down the line unless he works really hard to stay in center. Pitch recognition is poor, but he’s 18 and playing against college kids. Definitely a kid to watch. And yes, he’s out for the year after breaking his hand beating up Boise Hawks.
(1) Heard anything on Nathan Adcock? It looks like he is struggling a bit in the AZL, but I wondered if you have any reports on his projectability?
A project. He has some mechanical issues they’re trying to iron out. They like the potential, but he’s got a ways to go.
I noticed Varvaro had one appearance in the AZL and hasn’t pitched in a month. Is he still hurt, or did he re-injure himself after that outing?
He has some soreness. They’re being extra cautious.
Also, only a couple of pitchers sporting a T-Rats uniform have looked any good. The two that seem to have really good numbers are Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Joe Woerman. Any thoughts on them?
Bibens-Dirkx has the odd delivery that could make him a nighty right-handed specialist, but that’s pretty much his upside. Woerman’s an organizational guy.
Why are the Ms so far behind most other teams in investing in the place that has produced the most major leaguers of any country other than the US? Is it a problem of reputation, or is there a deliberate reason the Mariners don’t sign any of the top dollar guys in the DR?
The M’s feel the D.R. is overscouted. It’s pretty hard to find a kid down there who other clubs don’t know about, so they focus on other countries where they can try to find talents who haven’t been overexposed at a young age.
Assuming Clement is ready for the majors by 2008, and that ready means ready to catch, does he collide with Jojima in the last year of his contract, or its extension?
Clement and Johjima would probably split the duties in that case, and I doubt we’ll see Johjima get an extension unless Clement falls apart.
I’m nitpicking your “risk†ratings, because I’m bored at work and a terrible nerd. I think you need to recalibrate your scale, since the numbers only run from 5-10, and there’s only one “5.†If Bentacourt only rates a 5, how do you get to 1? Be Wolverine from the X-Men so you can heal between innings?
Well, at one point in time, Jeremy Reed was a 7 reward/2 risk (which, of course, turned out to be wrong, but that’s not the point here), so I’m not sure that the problem is my scale as much as it is the M’s emphasis on high-risk players. Yes, Betancourt’s a five, because his skillset is highly volatile from year to year. He’s basically a carbon copy of the young Cristian Guzman. Without drawing walks or hitting for some power, his offensive value is going to be completely tied to his ability to hit singles, and that is a very inconsistent skill.
You say the the Mariners implement practices that aren’t condusive to patient hitting. What exactly are these exercises?
The M’s coaches preach aggressiveness all the way through. That aggressive mindset carries over to young players approach at the plate.
first of all, let me begin by saying that I appreciate your site…I am wondering if any of you actually know what a good catcher is.I have read the clip where you harp on Rob Johnson. That might be the most incorrect comment I have ever read. He doesnt” belong” in AAA. Are you kidding me? The other catchers aren’t even worthy of holding his jock strap. He is the best defensive catcher hands down in this organization. Sure, his bat needs another year, but his performance as a back stop will be noted to go down in history. Mark my words…