Simmons: who will wear the AL Crown?
Bill Simmons, who I know reads us at least occasionally which means he’s probably read some of the cracks on him, runs down the AL Teams by suckiness. The M’s are ahead of Tampa, Baltimore, and KC in their chances to win the World Series.
So what’s the scoop? I guess Putz is on steroids (nice). Big three reasons they suck:
- Felix
- Hargrove (with bonus Lowe/Soriano example!)
- Beltre and Sexson are killing them
The real gold in this column, though, comes later:
Second-strangest thing about the Tigers: Six years ago, they offered Juan Gonzalez a $150 million contract that would have destroyed them for the rest of the decade if he wasn’t dumb enough to turn it down. It’s almost like the entire franchise had a near-death experience. Anyway, they took advantage of that second life and now they’re headed for 100 wins. … Meanwhile, Juan Gone is playing in the Independent League along with my buddy JackO’s pal from home, and after JackO drove to Jersey to catch one of his friend’s games, they stopped at a Subway for dinner afterwards, and who walked in but Juan Gonzalez? That’s right, the two-time MVP Juan proceeded to sit down at a table and eat a Subway sandwich by himself. These are the things that happen when you turn down a $150 million contract. I feel like you need to know these things.
Thaaaaaaaaaaaat’s what I read Simmons for.
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He also name-drops Jonah’s book, though he gets the name wrong. Oh well. I’m just excited that VORP made it into a Simmons column.
That’s funny, I just got done reading this myself. Good stuff. In the words of Lloyd Christmas “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
I think you have to give him credit for the Hargrove as the “homeless man’s Bob Brenly” crack. While he uses that line in every third column or so, it’s still funny and still true in this case.
Classic Simmons overreaction to Felix’s “mediocre” year. Anyone who would take Jered Weaver over Felix going forward doesn’t understand talent evaluation.
Liriano, you could make an interesting argument before the arm injury. Kazmir, not really, but whatever. But Weaver?
I’m just excited that VORP made it into a Simmons column.
I think he’s on the record as claiming Joe Sheehan’s column is a must-read (amongst a bunch of other columns), so it was probably just a matter of time. Of course, Bill will likely go on to show (as many others before him have) that even with VORP, you can still come to some pretty terrible conclusions. At least he usually comes to his conclusions in an entertaining fashion.
But Weaver?
Haven’t you been paying attention, Dave? He’s undefeated. [/sarcasm]
The great thing about Bill Simmons is that he has a column about sports and gambling which he uses to repeatedly prove that he knows little about either topic, preferring superstition to any sort of reasoned argument. However, he’s such a good writer that he can get away from it, and I always find it a fascinating glimpse into the mindset of the “regular” fan.
get away WITH it that is… sheesh.
I find him pretty funny but the gambling stuff always annoys me from past experience dealing with yahoos who don’t understand basic math.
Is 13.2 innings in 20 games so much for Lowe that you’d blame his elbow soreness on Hargrove? I would think a lot of middle relievers throw that much in any given 20 game stretch. That equates to 110.2 innings for a season, which is a lot for a relief pitcher but not outrageously high if you compare it to a starter — and if he wasn’t up a lot without being used.
During that stretch he threw a total of 198 pitches. In almost 3 weeks. That really doesn’t sound like overuse to me.
Also, Simmons should check with Rob Neyer about whether Beltre is killing the Mariners. And I really object to the steroid insinuation on Putz. Putz always threw hard; I don’t think he developed the splitter through the use of steroids.
Classic Simmons overreaction to Felix’s “mediocre†year. Anyone who would take Jered Weaver over Felix going forward doesn’t understand talent evaluation.
Care to elaborate? Weaver’s 8-0 with a 2.14 ERA and a .97 WHIP, Felix is 10-10, 4.50, 1.37. Perhaps I’m being simplistic, and I’d like to be disproven, but I’ll take Weaver over Felix.
I loved Simmons’ bit about Ozzie Guillen, though. Worth the price of the column.
Simmons uses tired NBA and pop culture analogies to attempt to deflect from the fact he knows very little about baseball. I am not certain why anyone not from Boston finds him entertaining or enlightening. Recall, he has claimed in the past that Jim Rice was superior to Wade Boggs. However, his assessment about Juan Gone is 100% correct.
There is a pretty well delineated order of ability categories for Simmons:
1. Writing to entertain. He’s really exceptional at this. And like almost anyone who makes their living through humor, the more exposed he gets, the more detractors he is going to acquire, just the nature of the business. Almost no exceptions to this. But Simmons is very, very good at this.
2. Baketball. Since I don’t follow basketball at all anymore, I can’t really verify this, but from what he’s written about the sport from when I WAS paying attention, I think he is a knowledgable and sharp basketball writer.
3. Football. I think he’s a better football analayst than some do. I also like that his POV is as a rabid, yet astute fan. I don’t think that perspective detracts from what is usually a pretty savvy take on the game.
4. Baseball. This is where his fan-as-analyst style tends to work against him, because I don’t think his savvy runs as deep here.
This column was a good example. The things he wrote about Seattle were not insightful, but still better than, say, the local columnists or most of the national ones.
The Putz thing was uncalled for.
The Felix thing bothers me mostly in that is seems to imply permanent downgrade instead of a rookie disappointment. Which Felix was ONLY because of the expectations heaped on him.
Beltre/Sexson is a trap that anyone not playing close attention to this team falls into. It’s time to stop dumping on Beltre, but that news hasn’t really gotten out yet.
WHIP and ERA are lousy, almost useless, tools to project pitcher performance. I’ve written about these topics extensively.
Weaver’s ERA is a mirage based on a high rate of stranding runners and a low rate of flyballs leaving the yard. Those are not sustainable skills. Felix’s ability to miss bats and induce a ton of groundballs are, however, sustainable skills.
Weaver’s not a bad pitcher. He’ll be a solid middle rotation guy. But he’s not anywhere near Felix.
14 – his football opinions suffer in the same way that his gambling ones do. He generalizes from small sample sizes, makes predictions based on whether someone is a “choker” or not, and believes in the powers of fate and luck. There’s a reason why the results of his weekly NFL predictions were under .500.
Weaver is also 3.5 years older than Felix, no?
That’s like saying Snelling will be a better player from here on out than Alfonso Soriano. Crazy talk! Oh…wait.. Keep drinkin that kool-aid, Dave.
I would take Felix over Weaver and Verlander. He is than both of them, and he has had to play under Hargrove. And Simmons misses the biggest reason for the M’s non-contention. Their collection of “non-descript” starters, as he calls them. I eagerly await the off-season rumors connecting the M’s to Matsuzaka, Schmidt, and/or Zito.
16 – The gambling stuff is almost all written to entertain. Even inside his columns he mocks the superstitions. But it is far more fun to embrace them for the writing. As to the football… he has some blind spots, everyone does, but he also has some great nuggets of insight. It is, as always, up to the reader to take or leave any specifics.
20 – the mockery is what makes him a good writer, but every impression I get of Simmons (assuming that the writing accurately reflects his attitudes, which neither of us know) leads me to believe that he thinks the superstitions are accurate. He went on a long rant a few chats ago about people who hit on a 15 and take the dealer’s bust card.
I would take Felix over Weaver and Verlander.
That’s the craziest thing I’ve heard all week. For what reason?
For what reason?
I’m gonna guess that the reason is future projections. Even with the high ERA, Felix has pitched pretty well this year and projects as a much better starter going forward than the other two guys. In fact, Weaver has basically had the opposite start to his year than Felix did. Whereas Felix was giving up ~25% homeruns per flyball, Weaver is giving up an abnormally small amount of them. Couple that with his extremely high fly ball rate, and you have a recipe for a dramatic rise in ERA and losses at some point along the line.
Felix is better than Weaver or Verlander, that’s why.
And it’s not particularly close. Honestly. Stop looking at ERA/WHIP.
Roster shakeup coming, by the way. Could be a fun afternoon.
Roster shakeup coming, by the way. Could be a fun afternoon.
Tease
25. You mean we have finally perfected cloning and WFB will be starting at all 9 positions?
I loved the column (but I am a huge Simmons fan). His writing just cracks me up every time, even when I don’t agree with him. The Bartolo Colon-as-Andre-the-Giant v 4 midgets scenario was brilliant (as was the title of the KC beat writer’s book).
I don’t think he was insinuating anything about JJ; he was just making an easy joke given the climate in baseball at the moment. Glad to see Hargrove’s complete and utter incompetence is apparent even to people who don’t watch him f*** things up every day.
#22 — Felix is younger and I believe that he will develop into a better pitcher than the two I mentioned.
Since I like lefties, I would take Liriano ahead of Felix, provided he is healthy.
Don’t take Simmons so seriously. He’s a comedy writer with a focus on sports, not a sports writer. A rich man’s Rick Reilly, if you will.
I don’t know the law, but it seems like he’s coming pretty close to crossing the line with the Putz thing. And it’s totally inappropriate. If he has nothing to back it up, implying Putz is on steroids puts him squarely in the jackass camp, even if his columns are generally pretty funny.
I think John in #14 nailed it. Simmons is very sharp on the NBA, probably one of the better analysts there is, Football less so and on baseball even less so, but still entertaining.
21: hitting on 15 when the dealer has a hit card is a bad move not a superstition, there are lot more cards in the deck that will likley bust the dealer than will help you.
The funny thing is, even with the little incorrect hiccups in his articles, Simmons does seem to see things more clearly the highly regarded sportswriters of today(including the notorious trio of Plaschke, Celizic, and 30-time Emmy Winner Joe Morgan).
#27 – That is the scariest thing I’ve ever heard.
Lets hope the roster shake-up involves someone spotting Joel Pineiro eating alone at a downtown Taco Del Mar sometime soon
I’m betting the shakeup involves Joel
No way! i specifically hearing last night from the “all knowing” Hendu that ol’ Joel will be starting sunday……Right?
since when is Joe Morgan a highly regarded sportswriter?
Any idea if the moves are trades, releases or firings/hirings Dave? Or can you not talk about it?
I completely forgot Juan Gone turned down that $150 million contract. I remember thinking at the time that had to be the dumbest thing I had ever seen anyone do, of course to an average Joe like me $150 million is a crapload of money.
37 -
I haven’t had the opportunity to watch Joe write very much this year, so I don’t have an opinion. However, he has won very many Emmys and has to be considered a threat. He and Tony Perez (you did know that he played with Tony Perez, right?) have forgotten more about the game of baseball than any of our computers could even hold. How many Emmys have you won? He’s won at least 20.
Yeah but does Joe know that a bat is round and a ball is round?
Felix is better than Weaver or Verlander, that’s why.
i wouldn’t quibble with this if you said ‘will be better’ or ‘projects better’ but it’s somewhat hard to argue that Felix ‘is’ better this year.
Max, there is a difference between “is better” and “has been better”. Felix is better.
I don’t find it useful to give pitchers credit for things that they don’t have control over. Jarrod Washburn wasn’t the 5th best pitcher in the AL last year just because he had a 3.20 ERA.
Joe Morgan is a Hall of Fame player. That doesn’t mean he’s good at talking about baseball, though. He says the most idiotic things during ESPN broadcasts, and is the poster child of how being good at something doesn’t mean you’re smart about that thing. Fast Freddie Spencer was a world class racer in his day. He did a terrible job announcing the Laguna Seca MotoGP race, though.
Here’s hoping that “roster shakeup” is code for ‘Hargrove’s fired’.
Jimmie
I’m sure you could make the argument that he ‘is’ better based on the last couple of starts etc. depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is.
#39 I think at the most Joe Morgan has two or three sports Emmys. For one of them he beat out John Madden who had won 11 out of the previous twelve times.
Also #37 was commenting on the fact that someone said Morgan is a highly regarded sportswriter and was not commenting on his broadcasting abilities.
I’m sure you could make the argument that he ‘is’ better based on the last couple of starts etc. depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is.
Felix is a more talented pitcher with a better chance of retiring major league hitters in his next start, and all future ones, than Verlander, Kazmir, or Weaver.
To me, that’s the definition of being “better”.
I took 39 as sarcasm and I thought it was funny.
Yeah, that was my best effort to mimick Morgan’s writing style in his weekly chats… of course, he doesn’t actually come out and BRAG about his Emmy’s. I guess he doesn’t feel the need to. No hurt feelings intended.
Joe Morgan, as I say every time this comes up, is one of the most frustrating broadcasters working. He was one of the smartest ballplayers ever, and he’s able to talk about playing in an easy, insightful way (things like what the infielders are doing, what they’re looking for, positioning). But he’s ridiculously dumb and stubborn on many larger topics (how to evaluate players, teams, etc) and refuses to learn.
The worst part about it is that he’ll sometimes come so close to making a jump to something intelligent but never go over. For instance, he’ll talk about how RBIs aren’t the best way to evaluate a hitter, because they’re dependent on teammates, but in the same breath he’ll argue that pitchers have to be evaluated on W-L records because their job is to win games.
Joe Morgan’s clearly not an idiot and has things to offer fans, but there are obvious problems with his analysis and knowledge that make people want to scream and jump up and down.
I’m betting the shakeup involves Joel
Can’t we please send him to the Indians as the PTBNL in the Broussard trade? Did we ever find out who that was going to be?
47 -
Yet somehow he doesn’t, and they do. Why is it that you discount stats when they don’t support your point of view? How is WHIP not a useful stat? You walk less guys, and allow less hits, less runs are scored against you. You don’t back up your assertion that Felix is better than any of the 3 guys, you just say ‘that’s the way it is’. Well guess what, it hasn’t been that way, and until(if ever) it is, I’d take all 3 of them before Felix. He’s proven to be inconsistent, overweight, and overhyped.
#19– I eagerly await the off-season rumors connecting the M’s to Matsuzaka, Schmidt, and/or Zito.
why wait ’til the off-season? No one else has… I was enjoying the conversaton yesterday on KJR about throwing all the money they can find at Zito so they get a no. 1 pitcher.
#47 – if you asked me the question ‘who would you rather have start the next game?’ then felix seems reasonable to me.
if you asked me who has had better results this year, i’d probably say weaver. not sure where you would dispute that, whether it is a a result of skill or blind luck.
I would definitely take Felix but I worry about his conditioning? ANyone know if the organization has talked to him about that? I would hate for him to end up looking like Sir Sidney or Bartolo or even Steve Balboni!
#48 I hope it was sarcasm, of course I did stumble across a Willie Bloomquist idolization site the other day that I though was a gag…turns out the guy was deadly serious. Got some hatemail from him for saying I thought his site was hilarious.
So hard to tell who is being serious and who isn’t.
Yet somehow he doesn’t, and they do. Why is it that you discount stats when they don’t support your point of view? How is WHIP not a useful stat? You walk less guys, and allow less hits, less runs are scored against you. You don’t back up your assertion that Felix is better than any of the 3 guys, you just say ‘that’s the way it is’. Well guess what, it hasn’t been that way, and until(if ever) it is, I’d take all 3 of them before Felix. He’s proven to be inconsistent, overweight, and overhyped.
There’s no nice way to say this – you’re wrong, and you’re wrong because you don’t care enough to learn. So feel free to go away.
if you asked me who has had better results this year, i’d probably say weaver. not sure where you would dispute that, whether it is a a result of skill or blind luck.
I wouldn’t dispute that. I just don’t particularly care about “results” that are not repeatable, especially when the topic of conversation is talent evaluation.
32 – duh hitting on a 15 can (depending on what the dealer shows) be a dumb move for that person. However, the odds of any other person at the table winning the hand are the same (assuming a random deck) regardless of if that player hits or stands.
Simmons is the kind of player that prevents me from getting into gambling. Of course, that’s a good thing so thanks.
50 -
Isn’t that basically a function of Morgan being an ex-player? He saw how baseball games were won back then, and he’s unwilling to adapt his understanding of the game to modern baseball.
I think his refusal to learn is Morgan’s most damning feature. If you read the chats that he does, he is constantly begging out of questions by saying that he hasn’t watched the person or the team play, and he maintains that everything he learned as a player is enough to serve him as an analyst. It’s worth wondering if the only baseball he exposes himself to on a weekly basis is the Sunday Night games.
I mean, if someone in politics were to treat the global arena as if it were still the 1970′s, that person would have been kicked to the curb the second time he/she opened their mouth. But Morgan has stuck himself in the middle of an intellectual vacuum, and we give the man prestigious awards for it.
It’s frustrating to watch.
WHIP isn’t a useful predictor of future results because a pitcher has very little control over whether balls in play drop in as hits
On the bright side, they can still look forward to the day when Buck Showalter resigns and they win a World Series 12 months later. Good times.
[snerk]
I mean, if someone in politics were to treat the global arena as if it were still the 1970’s, that person would have been kicked to the curb the second time he/she opened their mouth.
Not to turn this into a political debate, [so I'm snipping the rest of this. Sorry]
There’s no nice way to say this – you’re wrong, and you’re wrong because you don’t care enough to learn. So feel free to go away.
Come on, is this The O’Reilly Factor? I expected better from USSM. I guess I was wrong.
editor on #61, thank you!
I am all nervous like Ben Stiller before the prom in “Something About Mary” (absent the beans and Franks moment) about this roster shake-up. Is this September call-ups early? Is this sending Pineiro packing so that we can give a young guy a try? Is this Snelling returning to the promised land?
#26 was right, Dave is a tease. And I am very sad this is what I am excited about re: M’s baseball in mid-August. Oh well. By the way, Hargrove getting fired doesn’t count as a roster move, does it? Ah fate, you are an evil mistress!!
I expected better from USSM.
Really? They’ve been pretty consistently critical of those who aren’t willing to look into the numbers themselves. There’s pretty good statistical evidence that Weaver’s start to his career is due to luck. Whereas Felix has had a season that’s been extreme in the exact opposite way.
does anyone do projected win shares? i’d assume that would be awfully speculative especially for pitchers but i’d wonder what the difference between the aforementioned young pitchers would be.
Come on, is this The O’Reilly Factor? I expected better from USSM. I guess I was wrong.
There’s a search bar on the left. Dave has expressed his disdain for WHIP, ERA, etc., many times over the course of the history of the blog. It wouldn’t take all that long for anyone to do a search and find the information they wanted. If USSM hosted a “why are WHIP and ERA poor ways to evaluate pitching” discussion every day, I don’t think I’d want to keep coming around because new content would be constantly drowned out by that repeated discussion. This topic seemingly comes up every time evaluating pitching comes up, so having the discussion over and over again would get pretty tedious. Just my two cents, anyway.
Heh, my favorite line in the Simmons article had to be:
“Now I’m thinking that Cleveland fans are like women — if they ask you how they look, just tell them, ‘You look fine, you look great’ or else you’re in for 20 minutes of pure hell. So to recap, the Indians look fine, they look great. Let’s move on.”
Because, given the Grady Sizemore fan clubs, these days I’m almost convinced that most Cleveland fans *are* women…
Win Shares aren’t very useful.
Come on, is this The O’Reilly Factor? I expected better from USSM. I guess I was wrong.
You really expect us to go on a long dissertation of a topic we’ve covered repeatedly (and, as recently as a couple of weeks ago) everytime someone comes in spouting ignorance, is corrected, and refuses to listen?
Why? Why are we compelled to spend our time trying to educate someone who doesn’t want to be educated?
Sorry, my point was simply that the level of dialogue in baseball isn’t necessarily less advanced than it is in other fields. Whether you’re talking about Joe Morgan, Geoff Baker, or anyone else, their analogues are to be found in lots of places. Simmons thrives on finding them in pop culture. Other people can find them in politics, or physics, or biology, although the results aren’t necessarily as entertaining to most people.
sorry – i not specifically win shares but does anyone spend much time trying to project out what young pitchers will likely contribute?
Has the news broke yet?
My prediction is that they’ll send down Adam Jones to bring up a DH-type (like Petagine) to rust on the bench.
Ah well, I digress. Here’s a good column on why hit-based statistics aren’t a good evaluation of pitchers, for all interested.
Petagine’s playing for Tacoma right now.
If you want to find out who might be coming up, go check out the Rainiers box score for the game in progress and note who is missing.
“There’s no nice way to say this – you’re wrong, and you’re wrong because you don’t care enough to learn. So feel free to go away.”
Was the insult really necessary? Not everyone is going to understand why WHIP is a pretty useless stat, but no matter how much you tell people that it’s useless there’s going to be a *new* person coming down the pipe tomorrow who’s going to need it explained again.
As for Joe Morgan, he’s just like Bill Walton: Just ask him; he played with and against the greatest players ever, and his sport should always be played in the same manner and with the same strategies as when he was active.
Was the insult really necessary? Not everyone is going to understand why WHIP is a pretty useless stat, but no matter how much you tell people that it’s useless there’s going to be a *new* person coming down the pipe tomorrow who’s going to need it explained again.
“Believeitornot” is not a new person. He’s been hanging out here throwing lame comments our way for months. He’s lost the right to benefit of the doubt.
#63 I think today/tomorrow is decision day on whether the club has to call up Snelling or use an option on him. Some 20 day rule I am not terribly familiar with.
-75 Fair enough.
73–Doyle!
So, does this mean Sexson will be gone longer than the three days? (Traded?) Or will Snelling get to rot on the bench some more? Or be yo-yo’d back down again?
Enquiring minds want to know!
Also, just because it strikes my fancy, a Pitcher A/Pitcher B comparison:
9.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9, 67.1% GB%, 2.89 xFIP, 84.3 IP – Pitcher A
8.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9, 31.1% GB%, 4.61 xFIP, 71.3 IP – Pitcher B
Just looking at major league results, Pitcher A has a clear edge in strikeout rate and a gigantic edge in inducing groundballs, which generally lead to a lot less damage than fly balls. Also, Pitcher A is 4 years younger than Pitcher B. Yes, Pitcher A is Felix Hernandez 2005 and Pitcher B is Jered Weaver, 2006.
Weaver’s good, but at least one strike against him (that hasn’t been mentioned) is that he hasn’t pitched all that many innings yet. There’s a really good chance he’ll be accused of struggling over the next season or so. Basing my conclusion on their entire careers, it’s pretty easy for me to prefer Felix by a large margin.
Ha, I just loaded up the Rainiers’ Gameday to see Hunter Brown get caught stealing home (on what must have been a 2-4-2 double steal). Nice.
Hmm, Lahair’s not playing, neither is Doyle.
Snelling!
Ohmanpleaseletitbetruepleaseletitbetrue….
#78 I forgot….Doyle. But notice you used his name in your post too.
Not Lahair. He is going to play in the Olympic Qualifying tournament.
I don’t find it useful to give pitchers credit for things that they don’t have control over. Jarrod Washburn wasn’t the 5th best pitcher in the AL last year just because he had a 3.20 ERA.
So why was he the 5th best pitcher in baseball last year then?
[runs and hides!]
In any event, lets play around with some stats here.
Justin Verlander: 14-5, 2.95 ERA, 140.3 IP, 96 SO, 38 BB, 14 HR allowed.
Now, I know most of us here can immediately look at that without having to look at some other translated stats and could tell immediately what’s going on here. But despite Dave tossing HabeebItOrNot aside with indifference because of his ignornace, I’m going to try to talk some sense into him and Wells and see if we can at least come to a sort of agreement.
Verlander is a guy who throws 100 miles per hour. It’s been touted, it’s been talked about, and it’s been overhyped to the point of nausea. So, when you have a fastball that fast, you’d think that with a combination of offspeed pitches you’d be able to strike out more batters, right? 96 strikeouts in 140.3 IP is not good. So we go to our first translated stat, strikeouts per 9 innings pitched (or strikeouts per game, if you will). Dave prefers the strikeout percentage of batters faced, but I don’t see the major difference between the two, so…
Justin Verlander K/9 – 6.5
This means on any given day, if Verlander were to pitch a 9 inning ballgame, he would strikeout roughly 6.5 batters. Sometimes 6, sometimes 7, law of averages apply. That’s not a horrible K/9, but it’s not outstanding. In fact it’s quite mediocre and average. What that means is that the other 20-21 outs would have to be attained through pitching to contact and relying on defense. A ball in play is one of three things: a flyball, a groundball, or a linedrive. If you want to get absurd, there are pop up stats too, that mostly dictate infield flyballs. But for the purposes here, we’ll just lump the flyballs alltogether, as the averages don’t indicate that inducing flyballs on the infield are something the pitcher can control all the time.
Justin Verlander GB%, FB%, LD%: 42%, 35.5%, 22.5% (and in case you care, IFFB% 15.7%).
Some basic logic first. Groundballs have virtually no chance of going for hoemruns. It would take something incredibly freaky for a groundball to be a homerun, and even then it would have to be of the inside-the-park variety. So a pitcher who induces more groundballs is less likely to give up homeruns, right? Verlander is inducing groundballs at a very average rate of 42% of balls put into play. What this means is that his flyballs are more a detriment to him because flyballs have a much greater chance of going for homeruns, basehits, and extra base hits. The major league average for percentage of flyballs that go for homeruns is about 12%. Verlander’s is 9.2%. Part of his success there is that his home stadium is pretty big, and part of it is blind stupid luck. When someone throws 100mph there’s a lot of kinetic potential there when it collides with a solid object traveling through the same plane at about 96mph (the bat). Basic laws of physics. So Verlander should be giving up more homeruns then he has been. This is our first clue that Justin Verlander might not be as good as his Win / Loss record, ERA, and WHIP.
BTW, that linedrive percentage is ridiculous. A 22.5% of his balls in play are linedrives and yet his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a low .282? Linedrives have the greatest chance of going for basehits / extra basehits. Allowing that many balls to be hit squarely and not having them fall in for basehits is more likley an indication that an outside factor is heavily favoring Justin Verlander right now. And it’s probably his defense. Detroit’s defense is sickening this year, which is unusual because their defensive players aren’t that amazing. They’re just doing amazing things. It can’t continue.
The last stat I’m going to tell you about is stranded baserunners or Left On Base % (LOB%).
Justin Verlander LOB% – 81.1%
Holy cow. 81.1% of all baserunners don’t score? Not only is this completely not sustainable (League average is 70%), but it also goes a long way to explain that shiny 2.95 ERA.
So let’s add up the math here:
Verlander…
…doesn’t strike out enough batters on his own (tho he keeps his walks down).
…and thus pitches to contact.
…but doesn’t induce enough groundballs to minimize damage
…has been lucky on the flyballs he’s induced not going for homeruns partially thanks to a big ballpark.
…has been extremely lucky on the linedrives he’s induced not going for basehits, possibly due to an overachieving defense.
…strands a ton of baserunners
What does this mean? Well, quite simply, that Justin Verlander isn’t as good as his ERA indicates. A lot of his success might be simply a lack of good scouting against him. As the league figures him out, he’s going to have a harder time just relying on his stuff and he’ll have to learn how to actually pitch. Just in case you’re wondering, all of this statistical analysis isn’t hogwash, nor does it not help effectively project a pitcher’s future success. Let me introduce you to Zach Duke someday, whose first major league season looked a LOT like Verlanders does right now and whose second major league season looks like crap.
In any event, there’s two more stats I want to introduce to you before we finish, and these are a couple of stats that should help indicate how good a pitcher is or isn’t: FIP and xFIP.
Justin Verlander’s FIP – 4.10, xFIP – 4.43.
Based on calculations created by men geekier then I, those two stats represent best the pitcher’s actual skill. What it means is that Justin Verlander should probably have an ERA closer to 4.10 just based on his relying on his defense (FIP stands for Fielding Indepedent Pitching or Fielding Independent ERA), and closer to 4.43 based on the fact that he’s getting way too damn lucky with that LD% and homerun rate (xFIP = extended FIP, takes into account factors of league aveage homerun rates and such).
Still think Justin Verlander is a great young pitcher you’d rather have then Felix Hernandez?
King Felix FIP – 4.07, xFIP – 3.67.
Think about it a while.
Lahair’s off to go play for Team USA.
81: It’s Doyle, dude.
Holy crap #83!
I guess the question is who’s getting sent out. A Doyle for Morse/Dobbs/Jones switch, just doesn’t seem that major to me. Major to me means more than 1 move or something hugely unexpected.
Typical idiot fan, that was a masterpiece. It should go in a FAQ somewhere.
LaHair’s not on the 40 so isn’t likely to get called up anyway.
DFA’ing Piniero so someone not on the 40 man can take his place in the rotation would be major. And welcome.
Unless they’ve worked a waiver wire deal for Sexson (!) or one of the platoon DH’s, I am not sure what would qualify as major. Pineiro, certainly.
Holy crap #83!
I want to point something out here. When I first came to USSM I was a Willie Bloomquist-lovin’, ERA-preachin’, aggressive baserunning fan. Honestly, I was exactly like BION and others who didn’t look deeper into statistical anlysis. After a while I decided to open my brain to new possibilities and I started to realize that some of this geeky shit makes sense.
Typical idiot fan, that was a masterpiece. It should go in a FAQ somewhere.
It’s nothing that anybody who pays attention to the advanced translated stats can’t do on their own on any given day. All I did was pull numbers from Hardball Times and FanGraphs who already did the work for me. I just put it together in perspective.
It’s what the guys here on USSM do every damn day, sometimes adding some insider info on scouting reports and stuff that I don’t have access to. In otherwords, it’s nothing. Just observation.
85. Actually, his name is Chris Snelling. Damn 81 for using his actual name…
DFA’ing Piniero so someone not on the 40 man can take his place in the rotation would be major. And welcome.
Baek would seem to be a logical candidate, since his rotation slot is on the same schedule.
Thanks Typical Idiot Fan. That was concise, lucid, convincing, and without snark. Appreciated.
For the record, I only said I’d trade Felix for Weaver AND Verlander.
For the record, I only said I’d trade Felix for Weaver AND Verlander.
Tempting. I think I’ll keep the King. Verlander and Weaver don’t look to be particularly amazing top of the rotation Aces. Felix does. It’s really hard to find guys like that.
Dave, and others –
This morning I was talking with some people I happen to know in baseball circles about Weaver, and whether his performance this year should catapult him past Felix, Verlander, Liriano, etc. in terms of player value. The answer was a resounding “noâ€, and one big point they brought up (other than his age) is his delivery. He has a very deceptive delivery in which he hides the ball substantially before releasing it. It’s unusual and makes Weaver much more difficult to face for hitters who haven’t seen him before. My baseball friends said that at least some portion of Weaver’s success has to be attributed to the fact that hitters are seeing him for the first time and are a little fooled at first by his unusual pitching style. They emphasized that while all hitters have to adjust to a new pitcher they have yet to face, a pitcher with an unusual delivery like Weaver’s is even more difficult to adjust to. They talked about how we should look to see how Weaver does during his second go-around the league, after his delivery has lost some of its novelty and hitters have seen it before. My baseball acquaintances maintained that Weaver’s performance is not sustainable due in part to hitter’s simply adjusting to/figuring out his odd delivery.
Weaver has only faced two teams twice – the Royals and the Indians. Against KC, he did well in both starts, although he walked four guys in his second start. The starts against the Indians (who have a far more legitimate lineup than KC) are more interesting.
First start against CLE, 6/2: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 4 GB, 7 FB
Second start against CLE, 8/8: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 GB, 10 FB
Hmm. Could this be indicative of what we were talking about? His second start against Cleveland was considerably worse than his first one. Obviously, small sample size alert, but it still might be interesting to discuss.
I’m curious about your thoughts on the subject. What do you think? Does Weaver’s odd delivery play a part in his early success? Or did my friends overstate it?
-Dwight Schrute
Felix for Weaver and Verlander?
I think I’d take Weaver and Verlander. There’s less chance of *both* of them breaking down, and they’re further removed from the early 20′s “injury nexus.” Plus, I’d have two minimum wage pitchers for the next couple of years, rather than just one.
Hey Dwight:
“As a volunteer sheriff, I can look up anyone’s psychiatric records or surgical histories. Yeast infections – there are a huge number of yeast infections in this county. Probably because we live right down the river from that old bread factory.
93 -
Yes. Damn me. When Hargrove pulls off the yellow ribbon that Doyle wears around his neck, and his head falls off, we will all know who to blame.
One thing about Verlander that I think might be nitpicking, but I hear a fair number of stats folks refer to his BABIP as “lucky.” Well, it’s a little on the low side, but he does induce a lot of fly balls, which are more damaging on the whole, but turned into outs more often. And as TIF noted, he plays in front of a very good Tigers defense. I don’t think Verlander has necessarily been all that lucky on BABIP so far this year as his defense has played well behind him. As long as the defense continues to play well and he makes about half of his starts in that huge cavern of a stadium in Detroit, I think he stands a fairly reasonable chance of continuing his success going forward, though probably not in a sub-3.00 ERA way. My favorite off-the-wall comparison to Verlander is a guy who’s pitching in AAA right now:
6.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, .282 BABIP, 42.0% GB%, 4.43 xFIP
6.8 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.97 HR/9, .354 BABIP, 32.0% GB%, 4.81 xFIP
The first line is Justin Verlander and the second line is Twins’ hurler Scott Baker. To be fair, Verlander has pitched a bit better than Baker so far this year, and I’d definitely take Verlander going forward, but their differences haven’t been so large that one deserves to be in the Cy Young race and the other deserves remedial work in AAA. If nothing else, Baker serves as an example of how nasty your HR rate can get when you’re only inducing ground balls 30 percent of the time, and how bad your ERA can look if your defense stabs you in the back and you only have a mediocre strikeout rate.
I have to say Dobbs being called up isn’t exactly a roster shakeup. Pineiro gone, that’s a shakeup.
100 – I was actually being sarcastic (you may be, as well). I just can’t stand the “Doyle” thing.
Good stuff, Dwight. Weaver’s ability to deceive is definately helping him out quite a bit. He does have a lot of movement on his fastball too, which helps. Tho, honestly, I don’t see a huge difference between him and Mark Lowe (in terms of movement / stuff), except that Lowe throws harder and doesn’t have to hide the ball.
BTW, I should have pointed this out in the previous post, but Jered Weaver is weird:
Jered Weaver ERA – 2.14, FIP – 3.16, xFIP – 4.61.
Wow that’s odd. Weaver strikes out roughly 7 per 9 innings pitched and walks about 2 per 9 innings pitched. Those two factors right there would equal success for a lot of pitchers, which explains why his FIP says he’s still good. But look at that xFIP, it says he’s horrible. Why?
GB% – 31.1%
FB% – 50.5%
LD% – 18.4%
Holy sweet Jesus. HALF of his balls in play are flyballs? Major league average is 12% of all flyballs go for homeruns, Weaver’s is currently FOUR PERCENT. If I were the fanbase of Los Angeles, I would be SERIOUSLY expecting a spike in ERA here!
As you might expect, he’s also getting help in the LOB% category: 81%
People need to seriously stop touting up Weaver and Verlander as ace studs. They’re both way overdue to implode and it wont be pretty. Everybody regresses to the mean eventually folks.
We’re on the same side then, atait.
Though I think it’s cute, I don’t feel the need to enforce it. And if/when I buy my merchandise, it’ll have ‘Snelling’ written on the back, and I won’t even feel guilty.
Doyle! Oh, my god, an actual, for real, honest to goodness reason to watch the game tonight.
He’d better play.
Atta way, AK!
A 4.61 xFIP isn’t horrible, TIF. It’s pretty much average. xFIP doesn’t scale perfectly to ERA, because so much of “good years” are, for the most part, outliers.
In the last three years, there have only been four pitchers who have thrown enough innings to qualify in a season and have posted an xFIP of less than 3.00 – Liriano and Webb this year, and Randy Johnson and Ben Sheets in 2004.
Also, Mat’s right – flyball pitchers will, as a group, post lower BABIP’s than groundball pitchers, and it’s not luck. It’s a direct result of their flyball tendancies. So we shouldn’t be surprised if Verlander runs a lower BABIP than Felix for his entire career.
Felix will just give up less home runs, though, which offsets the difference.
What is the best website to find FIP and xFIP numbers?
Hardballtimes.com and fangraphs.com.
I don’t know what I’d do without either one.
Thanks.
This morning I was talking with some people I happen to know in baseball circles about Weaver, and whether his performance this year should catapult him past Felix, Verlander, Liriano, etc. in terms of player value. The answer was a resounding “noâ€, and one big point they brought up (other than his age) is his delivery.
Dwight,
This is a very common comment with guys who have odd deliveries. I haven’t seen any kind of thorough statistical analysis done to support the claim, but it does make logical sense, and there are some individual cases we can point to (Hideo Nomo, for instance) where a guy with a bizarre delivery dominated early and declined quickly.
I don’t think Weaver’s delivery is that odd. He’s got a lot of arm angles he can throw at you, but his deception isn’t based on a unique herky-jerky motion. He actually reminds me a lot of Orlando Hernandez, who succeeded for several years by throwing from different release points and mixing in a nasty breaking ball with good command. It’s a formula that can work.
But it can’t work to the tune of a 2.14 ERA. Weaver’s pitching like a mid-rotation starter and getting results like an ace. I’d expect that his results will begin to match up with his abilities sooner or later, and he’ll have a decent career as a guy who can throw a couple hundred innings at league average or slightly better.
Hardballtimes.com and fangraphs.com.
I don’t know what I’d do without either one.
Write articles criticizing “statheads”?
Spread rumors about the upcoming Junior-back-to-Seattle trade?
By the way, while Snelling should be in Oakland tonight, it doesn’t sound like he’ll be on the active roster. So don’t tune in tonight just to watch him play.
Another move should come down before gametime, though. They’ll make a decision on Snelling tomorrow.
#57
When complaining about the player taking the dealers card with a 15 I was assuming we were talking about the last player before the dealer, which means they are actually taking the card the dealer would get. Yes the chances are that the next card after the one you took is a high card too. But still overall the majority of the cards in the deck are gonna be high numbers that hurt the dealer and you want to leave them there to keep the odds up.
Do you (Dave, anyone) think Verlander’s K rate will improve in the near future, or will he settle in at his current rate far below his college and minor league rates?
Verlander’s certainly got the stuff to notch his K rate up. He’s a good arm, and a very good prospect. He’s obviously having a good year.
Saying he’s “not Felix” isn’t an insult. Stuff wise, there’s no one in baseball who compares to Felix.
114. C’mon Dave. How about a hint for those of us who aren’t going to be able to see the game tonight. Are the Mariner’s finally going to be able to spell Seattle without the (Jo)El?
I’m a big fan of Bill Simmons writing, and I really enjoyed he column, but he was off base with a few things:
1) The Putz comment was WAY out of line, he’s always thrown that hard.
2) Taking Weaver, etc over Felix.
3) Taking a shot at Beltre
But he receives kudos from me for the following:
1) Hargrove as a homeless man’s Bob Brenly.
2) Too much hype on Felix to start the year.
3) Noticing that Ibanez is very queitly putting up some very nice numbers.
Joel HAS to be gone. Mateo COULD be gone.
Other than those two I can’t see what could happen.
A few weeks ago Deadspin posted a link to a Bill Simmons column generator. A real statement as to how old his shtick has gotten.
Do you (Dave, anyone) think Verlander’s K rate will improve in the near future, or will he settle in at his current rate far below his college and minor league rates?
Since the All-Star Break, Verlander’s K-rate has been about 8 K/9. That’s only in 29 innings, so small sample size caveats apply, but it’s possible that we’re already starting to see Verlander miss a few more bats.
Plus what Dave said.
And the way I see it in this pissing match:
– I’d take Liriano over Felix, just because he’s a LHP, assuming his elbow issue really is as “mild” as they’re saying it is
– I’d take Felix over Weaver, because Weaver’s career is peaking right now, while Felix in three years could be the best pitcher in baseball
– Felix really, really needs to hit the weights, get his head screwed on, and learn how to pitch. He’s got a HoF arm.
– Verlander is nice, but that 102MPH fastball? The only way he can throw it for a strike is if Manute Bol is at the plate and on his knees.
– And all this is subject to change. One injury and you’re Mark Prior. Or Rich Harden. Or Ryan Anderson.
#120 – You’re right. Joel Pinata should not be making another start for this team. I doubt they just get rid of him at this point, but why not just give Woods his next start, and move Joel into the depths of the bullpen?
123 – I’d never take Liriano over Felix. Liriano has had arm problems all along, and to my knowledge, Felix has had none or very little. Still no reason not to limit his innings and whatnot, but Felix has a arm and body that could be a solid 200 inning a guy for many years to come.
Has anyone else mentioned that Weaver’s start to his career lokks eerily similar to Felix at the end of last season? I would guess that by this time next year, Weaver will be the one struggling. Sophomore slump, and all that..
How about Moyer in the bullpen? I just think Moyer’s pitched too many innings. He is so good on his matchups… he’d be a great middle reliever or eat up some innings.
Why move Moyer when Joel is the huge problem?
Misdirection. You want to keep your opponents off-balance.
Sort of like when Mateo is brought in with the bases loaded, and one out? DMZ, you’re starting to sound to much like Grover!
The casinos must roll out the red carpet for Eric (# 115).
Please pardon my spelling. I’m just back from the dentist, and a little off kilter..
A 4.61 xFIP isn’t horrible, TIF. It’s pretty much average. xFIP doesn’t scale perfectly to ERA, because so much of “good years†are, for the most part, outliers.
My bad. What I meant by my statement was that while the FIP is still very good, demonstrating that Weaver does post some good peripheral stats, his xFIP disagrees and says he’s much worse then his FIP or his ERA say. I didn’t mean to imply that a 4.61 xFIP was horrible.
Another move should come down before gametime, though. They’ll make a decision on Snelling tomorrow.
I’m guessing Soriano to DL. I think that he needs to be shut down for the rest of this season. We’re not going to the playoffs, so there’s no reason to try to keep Soriano pitching through potential problems. Shut him down, evaluate his situation, and get him healthier for 2007. He’s still very closely removed from TJ surgery, so I don’t think any of us should be really surprised that he’s having problems this late in the season.
Here’s the question, tho, did they actually call up O’Flaherty when he was in Oakland yesterday and then send him back down or did he just come up as a preliminary move? If it’s the latter, he could be called up immediately again along with Doyle.
I’m assuming Doyle is being called up because Sexson is still on his Bereavement Leave, so Broussard / Perez will play first, Ibanez / Doyle will DH and play LF. Morse sure as heck isn’t being used, might as well use someone who looks like he’s coming out of his funk.
I don’t know why they didn’t bring up Doyle and not Morse when Sexson went on bereavement in the first place.
O’Flaherty was never actually “called up”, he flew to Oakland, but was never added to the roster, so he could join the team tonight if they wanted him to.
I’d take Liriano over Felix, just because he’s a LHP, assuming his elbow issue really is as “mild†as they’re saying it is
Liriano’s injury concerns are real. There likely won’t be much lasting damage to his elbow/forearm from what happened over the last month or so, but the elbow problem was really a cascade injury from a shoulder problem. They claim that they can make everything better by strengthening the shoulder through therapy, but I’d be skeptical about such claims. Shoulders aren’t all that well understood, so I could see this easily cropping up again and Liriano winding up causing lasting damage to his elbow.
Plus, Liriano’s got fairly violent mechanics and so far has needed to rely a lot on his slider. If he does manage to somehow stay healthy, though, I could see some pretty interesting Liriano/Felix showdowns for the AL Cy Young in the future.
Sorry to ask, but where can you see Ranier’s box score? (I’m kinkda new here)
#101– anyone who reads Batgirl’s blog knows what Scott Baker’s secret is…
137:
milb.com has links to all minor league teams, boxes, and gameday stuff.
Or, linked: milb.com
Unless Liriano works on tweaking his delivery to cut down on that whip-like motion (and one does that at the risk of taking away what it is that makes Liriano Liriano)… his shoulder is a time bomb. Already his elbow is having problems.
Felix’s motion does stress the shoulder as well, but one plus is that Felix’s arm moves as a more stable assembly, compared to Liriano pulling his arm way back and practically flailing his arm recklessly towards the target.
Thanks pdb!
Dave,
I don’t play games where the house has the advantage, only poker for me.
But if I were playing Black Jack why would I hit a 15 when the dealer is showing a 6 or less? Only 4 cards help me (3,4,5,6) every other card hurts and more than likley busts me.
where can you see Ranier’s box score?
MiLB.COM (note the “i” — though it gets expanded to minorleaguebaseball.com, you can just type milb.com): Tacoma-Tucson (Game 2).
Also, you can listen to live audio (the radio broadcast streamed) for free (you just have to hunt up the game in the schedule).
Simmons wrote a great live blog (although, I’m sure it wasn’t called live blogging back then) of the 7th game of the DBacks/Yankees 2001 series.
As Luis Gonzalez came to the plate in the 9th with 2 on and one out, Simmons wrote “This game is now being simulcast on ESPN Classic.”
It was good stuff.
Yeah, and Simmons will always get a pass thanks to this comment during his live blog of the Superbowl, after the penalty on Hasslebeck for tackling:
“Shouldn’t the ref’s just be throwing terrible towels at this point?”
Simmons does seem to have slipped ever since he was working for Kimmel though. Not nearly as many columns, and the content has seemed a bit… lazy.
he’s also got a 1 year old kid now. might impact his writing some.
Good point, I forgot about the fact he had a baby girl.
hmmm. now Petagine is out of the game.
120- Ok, I know Joel is going to be gone next year, but can someone please alleviate my fear that Gil Meche will still be on the club next year. When he was pitching well I was stoked because it meant some other team would overpay for him, but now I’m worried we’ll resign him because he sucks again and we’re cheap/stupid. I’d really like to see Felix, Washburn, Moyer, and two other guys that the AL West hasn’t been lighting up the past couple years in 2007.
He’s still pretty damn funny…I don’t know what you guys are expecting.
I think Meche is pretty much gone next year. I could see him staying if this expected collapse scares away teams enough that he comes back on a contract similar to his last.
Other than that…I think you’ve seen the last of Meche, they should have tried him in the bullpen he’s just not meant to go 200 innings during a season, whether his head/arm/mechanics are to blame.
I can’t see Petagine being called up. Wouldn’t that be essentially admitting the FO and manager were complete morons for how they handled the DH position?
Plus, why not use a spot for a younger player with a possible future on the team?
As for Simmons, I still think he’s pretty damn funny, just not as good as I remember him being before he went to LA, and had a baby.
I don’t really think it means anything, it just made me laugh when Curto noticed. He says O’Flaherty up, and Dobbs going back down to Tacoma, as of now.
Where’d Petagine go? there’s no replacement listed in the box score… are you listening on the radio, 150?
Aha! Dobbs back down makes a lot of sense.
O’Flaherty and Lowe – that’s one hell of a left-right punch.
I doubt Dobbs will ever see a full year in the bigs, so it doesn’t surprise me at all that he might be sent down. He’s an organizational player at this point.
Not to say he was ever anything more than that.
Incidentally, Mike Flannery isn’t ‘relieving’ anything at this point.
With Dobbs gone, who will take over the coveted Lawton/Borchard/Petagine Memorial Bench Warmer position?
161 – Morse.
The roster machinations now have their own post.
# 143 — Eric, I misunderstood your previous comment. Sorry. Of course you stand pat with a stiff against a 2 through 6 (except 12 vs 2 or 3).
Unless you have godlike counting skills and know the cards at the bottom of the deck.
Liriano’s injury concerns are real. There likely won’t be much lasting damage to his elbow/forearm from what happened over the last month or so, but the elbow problem was really a cascade injury from a shoulder problem. They claim that they can make everything better by strengthening the shoulder through therapy, but I’d be skeptical about such claims. Shoulders aren’t all that well understood, so I could see this easily cropping up again and Liriano winding up causing lasting damage to his elbow.
As I understood it, Liriano’s current injury is him tearing scar tissue from his previous elbow injury. In that sense, it’s a “mild” injury — it’s not like he’s scheduled for TJS. I wouldn’t completely dismiss therapy, though. A mechanical fix is better, but therapy can at least delay the inevitable.
Plus, Liriano’s got fairly violent mechanics and so far has needed to rely a lot on his slider.
The violent mechanics are a big worry. He really does look like love child of Juan Marichal and J.R. Richard. OTOH, both those guys stayed healthy. The key here is to avoid the level of abuse that young pitchers on contending teams get put through and tightly ration his pitching the rest of the way. The real problem going forward is whether his labrum can handle it.
Can the Twins resist the temptation? Can they modify his mechanics without losing his effectiveness? Who knows.
Felix’s motion does stress the shoulder as well, but one plus is that Felix’s arm moves as a more stable assembly, compared to Liriano pulling his arm way back and practically flailing his arm recklessly towards the target.
A number of people have commented that Felix will have a signficant injury in his future due to his mechanics, especially with the way he falls off the mound. And yes, it’s not anywhere near as big of a problem as Liriano will have, but his delivery is not perfect.
In both Felix’ and Liriano’s cases, they need to learn how to pitch, how to throttle their stuff, how to use what they have rather than just throwing whatever they have. Both still have potential left, though the Felix potential is greater. Now, if they can just stay healthy….
Thanks for the reply, Dave. Yeah, Nomo was a guy we talked about in comparison. It’s definitely not something that you’d really be able to quantify with data, but the guys I’ve talked to said it was really tough to pick the ball up during their first few at-bats against him, so I thought I’d throw that out there.
-Dwight Schrute – Assistant (to the) Regional Manager
As I understood it, Liriano’s current injury is him tearing scar tissue from his previous elbow injury.
His old injury was probably also the result of altered mechanics thanks to a sore shoulder. The Twins have claimed he has a “weak” shoulder, or something to that effect, but at any rate, I’d bet the problem starts with his shoulder, alters his mechanics, and shows up as a tear in his elbow.
Anyway, it appears we basically agree here.
If you can stomach his sports analysis, Simmons is great.
His best columns have almost nothing to do with analyzing sports. They’re diaries on the NBA All-Star game, the NBA/NFL drafts, trip to vegas, and weird stories about his nicknamed friends.
Hopefully he realizes this.
I think the remark on Putz (“he’s 29 but nobody finds this fishy at all”) isn’t necessary a a steroid allegation. It may be meant as a statement of fact or even praise. It’s ambivalently phrased, though.