More Randomness
Lots of short stuff to get to today, none of it deserving of its own post, so back to the notebook we go.
1. Doyle!
Let’s be honest – the M’s haven’t been any fun to watch lately, but getting to see Chris Snelling take some hacks in the 9th inning last night was legitimately enjoyable. Yea, he struck out on a swing with far too much of an uppercut, and his recent performance in Tacoma doesn’t do much to support our cries for him to get regular playing time earlier in the season, but the kid’s been through hell the past four years, and the fact that he’s a major leaguer again makes my day a little brighter. I know we won’t see him much, but I’m glad he’s in Seattle.
2. Shut down Raffy. Please.
It’s not too often that you’ll see a guy strike out the side and cause pain and consternation at the same time. But that’s what Rafael Soriano did last night. The results were terrific, but he’s clearly not healthy. His fastball was 90-92, he threw a ton of sliders, and he’s been complaining of soreness for weeks now. The M’s season is over, and the guy missed two seasons because the M’s tried to let him pitch through arm problems back in 2004. Don’t make that mistake again. Shut him down.
3. How do you pronounce Nageotte? “Dun.”
After last nights performance, Clint Nageotte has thrown 16 2/3 innings in four August starts, facing 86 batters. He’s given up 23 hits, walked 14, hit 2 guys, and struck out all of 4 batters. He’s not even getting groundballs anymore. He’s throwing 87-89 and his slider doesn’t even resemble the pitch it used to be. At this point, the only chance his career has is a move back to the bullpen and a prayer that some velocity returns in shorter stints. But even that’s a longshot. Yet another cautionary tale of the attrition of young pitchers – Clint Nageotte isn’t even really a prospect anymore. I’m not sure he’ll still be on the next version of the Future Forty.
4. Hello Curve Ball.
How do you post gaudy strikeout numbers in the low minors? Feature a big breaking ball with all kinds of movement. Guys in short season ball just haven’t seen that many true 12-6 curves that start at their heads and end at their toes, and they often look foolish when they face a kid who can break off an Uncle Charley. So, meet the M’s newest low-level strikeout master, 2nd round pick Chris Tillman. Here’s his line from last night:
6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 10 K
In two starts, he’s struck out 15 of the 37 batters he’s faced in the Northwest League. His command still needs all kinds of work (7 walks and a hit batter in 8 2/3 IP), and he’s got a ton of growing up to do, but he’s going to post some ridiculous strikeout numbers. That breaking ball is just going to outclass low level hiters.
I rememember Nageotte being one of if not the top prospect on the FF not that long ago. Watching his MLB debut (sweaty!). That sucks.
So is Tillman the new Nageotte?
Any insight what’s going on with Nageotte? What’s the problem, health, attitude, conditioning?
So is Tillman the new Nageotte?
He’s got 20 professional innings, all in short season ball. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Any insight what’s going on with Nageotte? What’s the problem, health, attitude, conditioning?
His attitude is fine, though he’s understandably frustrated. He probably should have had surgery a couple of years ago, but went the rest-and-rehab route, and his velocity has never returned.
I did not get to see Doyle last night. I was too upset at Grover not PHing him for WFB in the seventh, when the AB actually mattered, and I turned off the game.
I wish they would shut down Soriano, but Grover will probably turn into Melvin of ’04, believing that he must win these games to save his job, and hurt the long term future of the club.
I’ve missed 97-100mph Soriano these past couple of seasons, and now it’s gotten to the point where I have to miss 93-95mph Soriano?! Please, for the love of all that is holy, shut the man down.
By the way, is this Snelling’s last option year? If so, does that mean he has to break camp with the team next year or be DFA’d? Just curious, as I sure hope he’s around next season with the big league club.
Yea, Snelling is going to be out of options next year. He has to make the big league club or be passed through waivers. Of course, with all his injury history, I doubt MLB would blink if they made up another injury and DL’d him again.
Nageotte looked horrible last night. He just hung his slider over and over again, couldn’t control his fastball; it was a lot like watching Gil Meche in early 2004. He’s really incredibly lucky he only gave up 1 run.
The News Tribune is claiming that Snelling’s option years have expired already, and that’s why they put him back on the team?
Okay, so, I just checked, and the TNT is right – there’s an obscure rule that overrides the option year rule.
Snelling’s out of options, so he’s up for good, or he’ll have to pass through waivers. He’s probably seen Tacoma for the last time, unless he “rehabs” again next year.
I thought the most interesting part of Larue’s note was: “Apparently, Snelling was claimed on waivers and the Mariners, not wanting to lose him to the claiming team, withdrew his name. Now, he has to stay on the 25-man roster.”
What’s the sense of benching a guy who’s played CF for a year for making an error as the PI claimed today?
Is there any chance they want to keep Adam to a certain number of innings played or AB’s so he can be considered a rookie next year? What are those limits?
I just simply don’t understand Hargrove. Every inning that Adam Jones plays in CF is only going to make him better. This benching is just stalling his development and messing with his psyche. I’d sure like to hear Hargrove comment on his rationale for sitting Jones. On second thought, maybe I wouldn’t. It would just raise my blood pressure.
I was a little surprised by Hickey’s benching comment this morning as last night during the post-game Drayer had said (in response to the ‘why aren’t they playing Adam’ question) that she had asked Hargrove just that and he said that Jones wasn’t playing a lot because they were spending so much time during the day before games working him; she said he is getting in hours out in center, and that in talking to Jones, he isn’t feeling fazed by the lack of playing time because he is up with the big club and learning so much…
From MLB Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).
14-I’ll tell you what it is, Grover knows his tenure is running out and is trying to save is job. He believes that the only way to do that is to win and will not trust his job to any rookie. Most Managers probably think the same way. Look at his quote on Doyle today, He will rest the corner OF, not that they need any rest….. Translation, fat chance he’ll get in. Bavasi needs to realize this and make a choice between his teams future and the natural desire to let his Manager finish the season.
Dave,
Do you think the M’s make more significant roster moves, or is what we have now pretty much what we’ll see the rest of the year?
Bring LOU back!
Hey really sorry for the stupid question but I just looked up VORP at THT which sent me to BP, where I got a definition but not an explanation of how it’s calculated. Would anyone mind sending me a link or an explanation of how to calculate VORP, please?
How about resting WB and giving Snelling a few starts?
#17. I agree, but that all goes back to having a plan and following it, which Bavasi hasn’t shown an ability to do. He is forever caught in the endless loop of “should I go with youth or try to win now?”. Now that the play-offs aren’t a possibility, is he going to try to win to save his and/or Hargrove’s job or is he going to do the right thing and push Hargrove to let the young guys play?
I think that the dark, dark cloud of this losing streak has a silver lining, i.e., it gives the Mariners a great opportunity to be objective about the talent (or lack thereof) on this team. That analysis could help in making decisions about next year’s roster.
Yeah, well you’d think that he’d do just that given the anemic offense but there is that rookie thing again. Also remember, page 34, rule 8c of the Managers Manual, “Never put a player in a positon different from his tag unless he is tagged “Utility”. (It’s next to the don’t use your closer until the 9th)
20 – there have been a few times I’ve tried to find a VORP formula, but have never succeeded. I get the feeling it is a BP-patented stat and they don’t want it getting out. I could be wrong, though.
#23 – This is true, except the current regime hasn’t been very adept at evaluating major league talent.
Is there any chance they want to keep Adam to a certain number of innings played or AB’s so he can be considered a rookie next year? What are those limits?
No, the team couldn’t care less about his rookie status. He’s not going to have it anyways, thanks to the days of service clause.
Do you think the M’s make more significant roster moves, or is what we have now pretty much what we’ll see the rest of the year?
You’ll see a few guys added during September callups, but this is basically it.
Bring LOU back!
Yea, because he was awesome with Tampa.
Hey really sorry for the stupid question but I just looked up VORP at THT which sent me to BP, where I got a definition but not an explanation of how it’s calculated. Would anyone mind sending me a link or an explanation of how to calculate VORP, please?
The formula is proprietary.
Easy there Dave. Like had lots of star talent to work with… In any case, he’d be LOTS better than what we have today. Hargrove is done here. Stick a fork in him… it’s easy to see the decisions he’s made this year were horrible. How many one run games have we lost? The team isn’t behind him, they won’t play for him. Whereas folks would “run through a wall” for Lou. There’s something to be said for that versus… “The problem usually isn’t just on the cover. You need to look much deeper. For example, if we’re talking about a tree and the tree has a problem, you need to look at the root. But you cannot see the root. The mistake is to keep watering the fruit. That’s not going to solve anything.”
All I know, is there are some decent players on this team… and they don’t seem to be willing to play for the current root…err Grove.
Dave,
If the Red Sox release Jason Johnson to make room for Keith Foulke would you still advocate picking Johnson up?
You’re not going to get me to defend Hargrove. I’ve written more than my fair share of words criticizing the man.
But good God, the slavish devotion to Lou Piniella is borderline insane. The Mariners underachieved for almost his entire tenure, he was awful with young players, he burned through pitching prospects like kindling, and his in game decisions were just as widely criticized while he was here as Hargrove’s are. Or do you not remember all the “Does Bobby Ayala have pictures of Lou and a goat?” jokes?
Yes, the team needs a new manager. But for the love of God, get over Lou Piniella.
Dave, do you respect VORP as a reasonable gauge of the value a player has contributed? I know you’re not enthusiastic about every BP stat.
The fact that Hargrove might start wrecking players to save his job is reason enough to fire him.
This really is the transitional year some of us thought it would be.
Dave,
I haven’t had the chance to see many of the young pitchers this year, and I’m wondering how many in the organization have the potential to be dominant starters. Besides Morrow, are there any other arms that have that kind of upside (likelihood being irellevant)? I assume Tillman could be on that list, and maybe a couple others – basically, regardless of realistic projection, who do you think could be a first or second starter?
If the organization is as thin as what some say, we really should consider changing over to the USSAngel or USSDodger.
VORP is good for evaluating past offensive contribution to a team, yes. It’s not great for projecting future ability, and it ignores defense, so it’s got enough flaws that I wouldn’t use it for serious, in depth analysis, but if you’re just looking for a pretty good estimate of how many runs a player added to a team’s offensive, it’s one of the better metrics out there.
Dave wrote:
This may be more of a medical question than a baseball one, but especially since Clint seems to be hitting a developmental/career wall, is surgery now an option for Nageotte? I mean, even if it doesn’t work, what does he have to lose?
And Beniitec, do you have any idea how many times the “bring back Lou” horse has been beaten around here? Give it a rest. It ain’t gonna happen anyway (Lou has as much as said so, and it isn’t like he didn’t burn a bridge or two with the FO on his way out of town, either), and his experience with both the Mariners (do you remember how he handled pitchers, pre-BP?) and in Tampa Bay suggests he is not the guy you want handling a young team, with a 20-year-old phenom pitcher with questionable mechanics.
We all would love to see Hargrove gone, and understand the reasons why as well as you do. But the Lou thing is pretty tired by now.
29 – What, exactly, is the point of picking up Johnson at this point?
If the organization is thin now, what was it in 2004? Nicole Ritchie?
I’m looking at the Future Forty and thinking that I see as many as 5 guys who could be in the 2008 Opening Day roster (though it’s probably more like 2). In 2004, I saw zero (Lopez did step up, though.)
But good God, the slavish devotion to Lou Piniella is borderline insane.
It’s almost like people don’t seem to realize that there are more than two managerial choices out there – what you have and what you had aren’t your only choices, folks. Piniella’s ship has sailed out of Seattle, never to return, and that’s the way it should be.
No, the team couldn’t care less about his rookie status. He’s not going to have it anyways, thanks to the days of service clause.
And with good reason, I would add. Given Jones’ development trajectory, he’s not going to be the kind of player to win rookie awards anyway, no point in trying to manipulate things for that goal. He may be an okay regular center fielder next year, capable of bypassing Reed. But anything approaching greatness is still a couple years down the road. It’s not going to be like Ryan Howard.
Got it guys… I got it.
I’m more curious about the guys like Tillman who aren’t on the future forty.
And the organization is thin – not anorexic, just thin – especially compared to the Angels, who have huge prospects and a superior ownership group.
Tillman’s on the Future Forty.
Oh, sorry. Anyway, original question…
This may be more of a medical question than a baseball one, but especially since Clint seems to be hitting a developmental/career wall, is surgery now an option for Nageotte? I mean, even if it doesn’t work, what does he have to lose?
He turns 26 next month. If he has TJ surgery now, that puts him out until 2008, when he’ll be approaching 30 years old and essentially be an after thought. If he has surgery, it probably ends his career. Of course, at this point, there’s not much of a career ahead of him, so it might not be the worst idea in the world.
I haven’t had the chance to see many of the young pitchers this year, and I’m wondering how many in the organization have the potential to be dominant starters. Besides Morrow, are there any other arms that have that kind of upside (likelihood being irellevant)? I assume Tillman could be on that list, and maybe a couple others – basically, regardless of realistic projection, who do you think could be a first or second starter?
Everyone has a different definiton of “dominant starter”. To me, that means Pedro, Clemens, Johnson, Webb, Felix, Santana, Liriano, Halladay, etc… So, I’d say the real answer to that question is zero.
But, if we’re playing the “ignore realistic projection” game, then every pitcher alive could be a first or second starter. Joel Zumaya threw 88-90 in HS and throws 99-101 now. Mark Lowe was throwing 88-91 and is now pushing 99 regularly. You just can’t say that anyone doesn’t have a chance – pitchers change, and you just never know.
But I don’t know what the point of playing that game is.
I know the Angels have a bunch of MLB ready prospects, but how is their minor league system stocked farther down the line? Are they going to promote the best prospects, and then be “thin” like our system is?
Forget Lou, give Dan Rohn the job.
The Angels system is awesome. Awesome.
You’re right, it isn’t helpful. I’m just looking for something entertaining during a depressing month of baseball. The Future Forty doesn’t have a category for “raw arm talent”, and understandably so – I was just curious who you thought might have an outside chance to become something special.
Besides, hindering future development for some meaningless award would be retarded.
I agree with the sentiments in 32.
Grover is going to take on more risk and/or sacrifice the future of the club because he wants to keep his job, and logically the only way to do that is go push pitchers harder (making them injury-prone), and rely on his “vets” at the expense of younger talent.
In a sense, Grover isn’t dumb. He’s doing what he thinks he needs to do to keep his job.
Every day I see Willie Bloomquist starting and Jones and Doyle on the bench I’m going to punch a random stranger.
I look forward to a lot of felony assault charges over the next month or so.
It is embarrassing to be this far out of it at this point, but it is criminal to not use the remaining games to prepare for the future. That means, as stated, shutting down Soriano, and Felix at some point and NOT WASTING TIME ON WILLIE BLOOMQUIST while the future rots on the bench.
And I see no reason to let Hargrove finish the season. He’s not the future, fire him and get a few weeks to audition Rohn.
Please, the status quo has failed miserably. Move on.
I vote we make a “pirate raid” on the Angels system, and pilage it for talent!
Griffey and Lou back in ’07!!!1!!one!one!1!
[/sarcasm]
Brandon Wood = Many years of pain for M’s fans.
Sorry, I don’t see Jones amounting to much… But you’re right, they need to give him a shot. Would be nice to see Doyle more often. I echo those sentiments…
Jones certainly won’t amount to much if all he does is sit on the bench!
Did I miss something? Thiel’s article today hints that Moyer and Johjima got in a shouting match earlier this season? I wonder if that’s the reason behind some of the “bad signing” whispers out of Kruk and other assorted buffoons earlier in the season.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/thiel/281729_thiel18.html
55-
Is it his opposite field power, throwing arm from hell, ridiculous speed and leaping ability, or perfect physique that have you worried?
Jones’ upside potential is so much more than Reed’s or Bloomquist’s, it isn’t even worth discussing.
Doyle isn’t going to play Center, too fragile.
Brandon Wood = Many years of pain for M’s fans.
I’m not a huge Brandon Wood guy. It’s that Aybar/Kendrick middle infield tandem that scares me.
Whether it’s Ichiro confronting Pineiro for being a wuss, or Mike Hargrove tipping over a postgame table, or Jamie Moyer in a shout-down with Kenji Johjima, it would seem a useful time to test the “Animal House” theorem that the “situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.”
He wasn’t saying Kenji and Jamie had a shouting match, just like he wasn’t saying Ichiro confronted Joel about being a wuss. He was saying an emotional outburst like that might actually help the team.
Dave, how would you rate Aybar/Kendrick vs. Betancourt/Lopez?
Aybar > Betancourt
Kendrick > Lopez
58-
Sweet… when’s he going to show up? All I’ve seen is someone who has had a few hits…can’t judge a fly ball…
Perfect Physique…umm…since when did that make a great ballplayer? Oh, I hear a man crush coming on…
jk hooligan.
That doesn’t make me feel any better. I at least had hope that our middle infield would be the best young tandem in the division for a while. Guess that optimism was just hurled down the stairs.
Sweet… when’s he going to show up? All I’ve seen is someone who has had a few hits…can’t judge a fly ball…
Maybe you shouldn’t judge a kid who just turned 21 on what you see, then?
Aybar = Betancourt
Kendrick > Lopez
Wood > other 4.
Change my mind, Dave.
Yikes… If Aybar is better then Yu-Bet then hes the next A-Rod? Cause Betancourts defense is amazing to say the least and in his first full season hitting at a .300 clip with some untapped power I can see Yu-Bet being a perennial gold glove winner and hitting .310 with 15 HRs
64 – So Adam Jones, at 20/21 years old, in his first taste of MLB baseball, gets a few dozen at bats and you’re ready to scream overrated? This guy would’ve led the entire M’s system in homers at age 20 in the PCL (and in a HR suppressing stadium). He’s played CF for all of about 10 months, and has done it better than I ever would’ve thought. He’s done so much to make people see him as a potential impact player this year – a ceiling of 30HR+, solid D, not a whole lot of patience, but christ, that’s pretty good. When’s he going to show up? Who knows. Next year, maybe the next?
Dave, where do you see Erick Aybar’s ceiling? I think he’s clearly a more advanced hitting prospect than Betancourt, but the gap isn’t THAT huge as long as Aybar’s power doesn’t develop a bit more (i think his ISO this year in Salt Lake is a bit of a concern). How about his D? I’ve seen him once or twice, and he just didn’t have a lot to do (thanks to Jered Weaver striking out about 35 in 7 innings).
Aybar = Betancourt
This is not even close to true. Betancourt is a far better defender than Aybar is a hitter or defender.
Oh and I don’t think it will be to hard for Kendrick to be better then Lopez… Lopez’s defense scares me and I think he played way in over his head in the 1st half as evidenced by this slumping 2nd half
Change my mind, Dave.
He’s striking out in 28% of his at-bats in Double-A. That’s not good. He’s actually posting a higher K% and lower BB% than Wladimir Balentien this year, playing at the same age, in the same league. And I’m assuming you know my issues with Balentien by now.
Wood has one standout tool – power. It’s already very developed, and has very little room for growth. He’s not a good contact hitter, which is actually one of the best indicators of how well a player will adapt to the majors. His defense has already gotten him moved to third base.
In my view, he’s got a solid chance to be a .260/.320/.500 guy early in his career, with a peak of .290/.350/.550 or something. That’s a good player, but it’s not a perennial all-star, and the flaws in his approach give him significant bust potential. His skillset isn’t that different from Dallas McPherson.
Maybe… Sorry for my sarcasm. I just don’t see him as a great outfielder “yet”. Maybe he’ll be a good one. It could be his experience at the position. But I just don’t think folks should be getting experience in a position at the bigs. That’s what the minors are for right? I mean, am I alone here? Why the rush? Doyle has been ready. He’s just been injured. Now there’s a GREAT outfield specimen. With some pop, and scrapiness, and great upside. Not a “perfect” physique mind you…
Dave, where do you see Erick Aybar’s ceiling? I think he’s clearly a more advanced hitting prospect than Betancourt, but the gap isn’t THAT huge as long as Aybar’s power doesn’t develop a bit more (i think his ISO this year in Salt Lake is a bit of a concern). How about his D? I’ve seen him once or twice, and he just didn’t have a lot to do (thanks to Jered Weaver striking out about 35 in 7 innings).
Aybar’s awesome. I’m one of his biggest fans. He’s got significantly more juice in his swing than Betancourt does. To me, Aybar is a Jose Reyes type talent. I could easily see him hitting .320/.370/.480 in his prime while playing tremendous defense. His glove is legit.
This is not even close to true. Betancourt is a far better defender than Aybar is a hitter or defender.
The difference between Betancourt’s glove and Aybar’s glove is probably 5-10 runs a year, max. Aybar’s offensive ceiling runs circles around Betancourt’s.
70, dw-
Look at post 63, and take it up with Dave. I’m taking the middle road on that match up.
Dave, I hope you’re right about Wood and very wrong about Aybar. Basically, the A’s have a core that is going to dismantel AL pitching for the next few years at no cost, and their front office has more than enough cash to bring in free agents.
If we didn’t have Felix, our future would look very, very bleak.
I like to think of Jones as 2/3 (or more) of Alfonso Soriano at 1/30th of the price.
Dave, I hope you’re right about Wood and very wrong about Aybar. Basically, the A’s have a core that is going to dismantel AL pitching for the next few years at no cost, and their front office has more than enough cash to bring in free agents.
That front office has spent that cash on guys like Steve Finley, Darin Erstad, and Garrett Anderson. The Orlando Cabrera signing hasn’t been the disaster it could have been. They’re going to being paying Bartolo Colon $12 million a year to be fat and injured the next two years. And they spent the last few months jerking Kendrick around because they can’t take at-bats away from Adam Kennedy. Let’s not hand them the division just yet.
If we didn’t have Felix, our future would look very, very bleak.
I totally disagree. We’re not the Twins, Indians, Diamondbacks, Angels, or Dodgers when it comes to young talent, but we’re in the upper half, for sure.
Still shaking my head that the Orioles turned down Santana/Aybar for Tejada.
77- That’s quite a compliment… And he doesn’t mind playing in the outfield.
If you are all correct about A-JO, then, the M’s managerial staff are all idiots.
If we didn’t have Felix, our future would look very, very bleak.
No, if we didn’t have Felix, Putz, Lowe, O’Flaherty, Soriano (if healthy), Jones, Betancourt, Lopez, Clement, Morrow, and Tillman our future would look very, very bleak.
Re #4 — you misunderstood me, Dave. I’d explain, but it was a rather cynical comment on my part anyway, and not really worth it.
I only wish we had Leyland as our manager first the Marlins now the Tigers, why can’t we get lucky?
Sorry, I meant “bleak” in comparison to the Angels, not the AL in general. We’ve got plenty of talent to be an outside threat each year, but we still pale in comparison to Anaheim. Winning the division is going to be extremely difficult with their combination of young talent and dough.
Looking ahead to next year, if we didn’t have Felix, our rotation (or lack thereof) would create a bleak outlook. But I appreciate your optimism.
By the way, is there solid confirmation that Aybar/Santana were offered for Tejada? If so, I retract all of my praise for the Angels. Forever.
And you really think we’re back into the upper half of MLB farm systems?
And you really think we’re back into the upper half of MLB farm systems?
No – our farm system sucks. We’re in the upper half of young talent. Which is really what matters, and why I moved the Future Forty away from just evaluating minor leaguers.
I think he meant we’re in the upper half of MLB with young talent, majors and minors, and he’s right.
Come on Dave, it’s Friday! Give me something to be optimistic about, instead of crying in my beer tonight!
Felix is pitching tonight. No need to cry. He’s still the best young pitcher anyone has seen in 20 years.
#83–I only wish we had Leyland as our manager first the Marlins now the Tigers, why can’t we get lucky?
ah, c’mon, you know we’d get the Rockies-era Jim Leyland…
Puts a smile on my face just thinking about Felix pitching. Everyone seems really disappointed with his performance this year, but I think he has actually done very well. He’s a young kid, and he’s just going to get better.
91 — I agree. I think its good Felix faces a little adversity early on. It’s going to make him a better pitcher down the road and maybe a little more humble in the grand scheme. It’s not like we were going to the World Series this year, anyway.
On a side note, thanks to Dave for patiently answering questions and in general, being a fantastic resource for Mariner fans. Much appreciated.
Amen to that! Thanks Dave!
BTW, when can we expect the next installment of “looking ahead”? I really enjoyed the LaHair post.
Re #86 — thanks, I misread that.
-55
I remember watching A-Rod play against the Orioles in the Kingdome in 1995 — and thinking A-Rod looked totally overmatched. He didn’t have a clue at the plate. The M’s had just parted ways with Omar and I turned to my brother and said: “Man, I really hope those guys know what they’re doing.” A-Rod’s line that year was .232/.264/.408.
I know Adam Jones isn’t A-Rod, and my opinion of Gillick is higher than my opinion of Bavasi, but I think the kid is going to be fine. He’s just young.
June 7th, 2006 at 9:36 am
“Jason Churchill seems really high on Chris Tillman. I think you had some negative information on him can you elaborate? Do you think Tillman was a good pick in round 2 (some projected him for late in the first round)?”
I had negative things to say about everyone yesterday.
But, I have one scouting report on Tillman from a friend who covers the area. He wasn’t a fan. That doesn’t really mean much, in the grand scheme of things, though. If Fontaine liked him, that’s mostly good enough for me (though Ricky Orta really stretches that line of thinking).
For the most part, it’s hard for any of us to have enough information on guys drafted after the 2nd round to have really intelligent opinions. There can be exceptions (Varvaro and Uhlmansiek the last few years, for example), but for the most part, getting really excited or angry over who we took in the mid-rounds of the draft is a waste of energy.
I think we are fine in young talent we just don’t have a surplus but we have enough… Which really makes me question this years off-season moves… Whats the point of wasting 4 mil on a guy like Carl Everett? When we know were not going to compete this year we were 3 years off? Whats the point of signing Jarrod Washburn to a 4 year deal for that much money? He’s going to hurt us when we really can compete and we have to use that money on him when we could of used that money 3 years down the road on a pitcher who is actually worth it…
Bavasi I just doesn’t think long term… I said coming into this year we were 4 years away thats when Felix, Lopez, and Betancourt would all start peaking… Thats where Clement, Jones and Morrow would all hopefully have a good grasp of the majors and be in there for a few years… Hopefully he realizes that this upcoming year that we are 2-3 years away and doesn’t throw away money to guys that 2-3 years will be on the downside of there careers
Speaking of Ricky Orta… Is with Everett 5.79 ERA…32.2 IP with 24 Ks
Well, in fairness to Bavasi, when your primary job (as understood by the people who hired you) is to make their asset profitable (or more profitable) and you’re staring down the barrel of a possible firing if the team doesn’t win enough games this season to keep the value of said asset from eroding further, it can be a wee bit difficult to think long-term.
97 – because the front office has to keep up appearances that the M’s are actually in contention or the casual/fickle/fairweather/whatever you want to call it fans here won’t buy tickets.
I think Bavasi does think long term more than he gets credit for. His biggest problem as I see it is when he took over, the farm system was so devoid of any talent at all whatsoever that the only way he could fill holes was via free agency, which is a crapshoot for even the smartest GMs.
That said, Bavasi is not the guy I would have hired to rebuild a team through free agency. Historically it’s never been his strength. His strategy seems to be throw big money at what he thinks are name guys and hope for the best.
If in fact Hargrove is sacrificing the future development of the team’s young talent in order to try to win a few more games in this lost season so that he can keep his job AND he is so incompetent as a judge of baseball talent that he thinks Willie Bloomquist starting in CF gives them a better chance of winning then he should be fired right now. Not tonight, not tomorrow, but right this very minute.
For a day titled “more randomness” i’ll throw this one out there Dave-
During this wonderful losing streak one thing that keeps sticking out (aside from Joel’s terrible starts) has been the lack of patience at the plate. Looking at the season numbers SEA sees the third fewest pitches per PA in the AL (ahead of BAL and LAA). There are several obvious trends with this data: the higher P/PA teams tended to all have higher OBA %(duh), higher SLG % (work the count, hit the piss out of a 2-0 fastball), and scored more runs (combine men on base and extra base hits, you’ll score more). Two interesting teams that didn’t fit this trend DET doesn’t see very many pitches, but still scores runs and hits the ball hard, and OAK sees tons of pitches (second behind BOS) and still doesn’t get on base or hit for power.
The point i’m trying to get is: should we be concerned for the future if the coaching staff doesn’t make it a priority to teach “don’t fear the walk”?
97 is just wrong. This team had a legit shot to compete in the AL West this year.
I think Bavasi does think long term more than he gets credit for. His biggest problem as I see it is when he took over, the farm system was so devoid of any talent at all whatsoever that the only way he could fill holes was via free agency, which is a crapshoot for even the smartest GMs.
That said, Bavasi is not the guy I would have hired to rebuild a team through free agency. Historically it’s never been his strength. His strategy seems to be throw big money at what he thinks are name guys and hope for the best.
Yes. This is *exactly* how I’ve felt all along. And it’s why I keep screaming that the free agents are just window dressing. I don’t worry that Beltre is getting $13M/year or Sexson is a bust at $11M/year. I also don’t worry that he’s going to blow $12-15M/year on Zito. What I worry about is whether we can get 5-10 major league candidates each draft and turn them into 1-3 starters a year. Lowe and Betancourt are (hopefully) the first of many to come.
#103 – And they do again next year too.
100, since you don’t generally rebuild a team via FA, it’s not much of an issue. Bavasi brings us Fontaine and Bavasi seems quite adapt with trading (Villone, Torrealba, Broussard, etc). Bavasi’s biggest weakness, to me, seems to be the signing of those 3-4M/year guys (spiezio, aurillia, everett) that just really really suck. However, if Fontaine gets the system rolling, there’s no need to make those signings, plus at least Bavasi has the guts to cut losses on people. Yes, not as soon as we would like, but still a lot sooner than a lot of teams would.
103… 13 games back is legit? get real winning a division means being able to keep it up all year
I pity the team who signs Zito. Unless it’s a team that I hate, in which case I will laugh heartily. Or if it’s the Ms, in which case I will cease expecting anything good to happen for the next 5 years.
Stay the hell away from Barry Zito.
Cougs, Are you incapable of reading? I said HAD, not HAS
The point i’m trying to get is: should we be concerned for the future if the coaching staff doesn’t make it a priority to teach “don’t fear the walk�
look at who you have on the field. Who among Johjima, Sexson, Lopez, Betancourt, Beltre & Ichiro are you going to teach to walk, let alone walk more?
That’s the point exactly!!!
Can a team that doesn’t walk succeed? Aside from Doyle, there doesn’t appear to be any possible high OBP guys coming up anytime soon.
I think Bavasi was hired first and foremost to rebuild the farm system and that the FO powers-that-be thought if they threw enough money at big name free-agents they could stay competitive in the meantime until the farm system started churning out prospects.
#100 are we talking about the same farm system that had felix.jose lopez,rivera ,choo,osvaldo navvaro,oflaretty,navvaro,naggoette,blackley,fierbrand,sherrill and others in it.If this is the depleted farm system that he says he took over we may reexamine him and his thinking …oops i forgot Adam Jones.Just to make a point Bavasai is crying wolf and there are alot of teams that would love to have a #1 starter coming felix your starting 2ndbaseman your backup catcher your starting cf two guys you traded for the 2 headed dh monster who have done nothing but he gave up on choo after 11 atbats.I think we need to look at bavasai and his moves more carefully before we talk.
Puncutation and spaces are your friend.
113 – “…and there are a lot of teams that would love to have a #1 starter coming felix your starting 2ndbaseman your backup catcher your starting cf two guys you traded…”
What in the world are you talking about?
I think #113 may have had a few too many cups of coffee, but I think what he’s trying to say is Bavasi had a system that had Betancourt, Lopez, Felix, etc. in it, so it wasn’t depleted.
I’m not saying I agree, I’m just offering my attempt at a translation.
No offense everyone. But can we just work on how to get a win first? How about it? Just win baby…
Everett didn’t just cost the team $4 million. He cost the team that much up front, and then a couple of prospects to replace. Now, you can argue that they were relatively expendable and that’s what you do with prospects, but if the M’s hadn’t spent $4 million to dig that hole they wouldn’t have had to then spend a couple of prospects to dig themselves out. You can’t tell me that was the highest value use of trading Choo and Cabrera.
It sucks about Nageotte but I’d much rather have his career in Jeopardy than Soriano’s, Although Soriano’s could still be due to his injury.
IIRC, the M’s signed Betancourt on Bavasi’s watch.
A win would sure be nice. Just one night of being able to enjoy watching the game.
Yes i was trying to say there was a above avg farm system in place when bavasai arrived.Ive heard him say more then once the system was empty and in my humble opinion that is bull…t.He seems to be the best spin doctor of all time the facts are he has spent millions and we have came in last 2 years in a row and headed for 3.So what im saying is weather its howie,chuckie are billy.We have spent money on garbage and the gm is the one who gets held accoutable in my eyes.Yes hargrove isnt good but whoever is making the decisions on spending the money on players is worse and should be held accountable.
Where is that JC-o-tronic when we need it? Someone needs to start working on the chriswhite-o-tronic.
122 – “So what im saying is weather its howie,chuckie are billy.”
Thanks, that clears everything up.
Chris,
Until you can learn basic grammer, spelling, and fact checking, no one is going to take you seriously.
bavasai
Holy Jebus. It’s BAVASI. BA. VA. SI. It’s not even as hard to spell as Pineiro….
grammer, spelling, and fact checking
Or, grammar.
So a lot of people are complaining about things that have already happened, but I haven’t seen much in the way of people offering their opinion on how to fix it.
I agree that Hargrove should be gone (now please?), and I personally think that Dan Rohn should replace him. I’m okay with Bavasi, because I like the rest of his staff (Fontaine).
On the player side of things, it would be great if we could get the pitcher from Japan (who’s name I can’t spell, so I’m not even going to attempt it) if he is posted. I’m frankly a little scared of both Schmidt and Zito, but I’m not sure who else is going to be available in the off-season. It doesn’t seem to me that we have anyone in the minors that we can really count on to fill a whole in the rotation after (hopefully) Meche and Joel are gone.
As for bats, it seems to me like we’re pretty much stuck with most of our position players. I suppose Sexson could be moved, which would open up a spot in the DH/1B?LF rotation, but I can’t see us really picking up an impact player to add to the mix. The only real spot to add would be CF, but I don’t know what the organization is doing with Jones.
My two cents worth.
You can always play Reed in CF until Jones gets enough time in Tacoma. Sexon is a likely candidate to be moved in order to free salary to spend on starting pitching. I suppose you could move Ibanez to first and let Doyle take over LF. Starting pitching is the biggest hole to be addressed on this team IMO.
100 – I agree with you completely that Bavasi has completely sucked at the mid-tier signings with the possible exception of Ibanez. I’m just saying that if there’d been 3-4 guys in AAA that were actually MLB ready, or if the org had realized that they had some in-house candidates that were ready to take over (Justin Leone instead of Cirillo for example) then perhaps they wouldn’t have felt the need to try and re-stock as many everyday players in the free agent market.
Clinging to Dan Wilson, Edgar, Olerud and Boone until they were well past their respective sell-by dates is IMO also a very big reason why this club is where it is right now.
113 – Come on, none of those guys were MLB ready when Bavasi came in. Over half the guys you listed STILL haven’t been with the big club for an entire season yet and some of them like Nageotte never will be.
113 – Come on, none of those guys were MLB ready when Bavasi came in.
I’ve heard good things about that “oflaretty” kid, and “fierbrand” is just about due.
/snark
Hey Dave,
What do you know about Austin Bibens-Dirkx? Could he become a cheap bullpen arm by 2008 or so?
One of the things I objected to in Chris’ post(s), in addition to his incoherent writing style, was the suggestion that we need to start looking at Bavasi. I think that subject has been pretty well hashed out here, albeit in previous threads.
Here, for example: http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/06/it-was-fun/
It’s the same old thing: somebody drops in out of the sky and demands that everyone stop everything to answer their question despite the fact that it has already been answered here many many many times.
So there.
Question: for whom would Sexson be an improvement at 1B? I started doing a search, but my computer is running sloooooooooooooowly. In the AL East, Baltimore and Tampa Bay are in bad shape at 1B. Who else?
131 – That’s supposed to be a rebuttal?
None of the 11 guys named in the original post were going to be ready to step in at the major league level when Bavasi took over in 2003. That’s MY point. He looked in AAA and didn’t see a single position player or starting pitcher who was going to be MLB ready for at least 3 years. He may have been wrong, but we’ll never know because for the most part they didn’t even try using guys from the farm system to plug holes.
Ok…I’m off the Lou rant… however… why did the M’s do so well in 2001 when they won 116 games? I’m curious. Heck, who was on our pitching staff that “was so great” that it allowed us to win so many games?
Jamie Moyer
Freddy Garcia
Paul Abbott
Aaron Sele
John Halama
and Joel…
Hmm… What made that team so great…? That pitching staff…just doesn’t look like it was that great…does it? I mean..it was Freddy’s best year…and Jamie’s year was decent… Was it chemistry? Sorry if this has also been talked about…
Chemistry?
Defense?
Timely pitching/hitting?
Managing?
The stars were just right?
And what made the 2001 season come to a premature end in the postseason?
131 – That’s supposed to be a rebuttal?
No, it was supposed to be a joke. A badly written joke, but a joke nonetheless. If 113 can’t spell the names of prospects correctly, I can’t take his argument seriously.
Good question…
In 2001 just about everybody on the team had a career year.
138 – Gotcha. I get it now …
Dave,
One name I haven’t seen kicked around is Doug Davis. He’ll be a free agent this year, and he’s sure to come a lot cheaper than Zito/Schmidt, and he is a very similar pitcher to Zito (though he is having an off year). His ’04 and ’05 years were very solid. Yes, he’s going to be a little older (WASHBURN ALERT!), but as long as he sticks to a 2 or 3 year contract, that shouldn’t be much of a problem. Is there any interest here?
I think I vote for the stars aligning– career years, just enough pitching, remarkable health (especially among those few who had their toes at the cliff’s edge but hadn’t yet “fallen off the cliff”TM)
Baseball luck kept happening — there were just so many times that a batted ball went just that 1/2-inch to the right that kept it out of a mitt, and then the other team would hit a pop-up that came right down into a mitt — and then you had the giant momentum-stopper of Sept 11, the upswell of NY love as they became the team to beat, all just as the injuries finally began to show up.
I think it was a fluke year that we should just enjoy and not expect to replicate…
msb: The voice of reason.
You sure about that Thingray? Link
But offensively they didn’t overpower people. And the 2001 M’s didn’t pitch incredibly well. I mean, the M’s won games, lots of them. But I don’t remember the pitching matchups being overpowering or dominating in the sense that you just knew these guys were going to win any given night. I mean we knew the team had a shot every night…but it’s not like we knew that Abbott was going to win vs the pitcher he was pitching against because he was having a career year.
Olerud
Ichiro
Edgar
Each one of those guys had good years but not great. I would even say Boone, Jaime, Freddy, Sele, and wow..Paul Abbott had career years. Even Stan Javier.
It was a team effort…Wasn’t it? They played well as a team. They had a shot to win every night. The team wasn’t perfect…and it didn’t dominate.
This team…has that missing and it’s not necessarily the big bat they are missing or the pitching. It’s just “off”. But I wonder if it’s chemistry, or managing… or the clubhouse… hmm.
Stars eh… that’s what it’s come down to? Hmm.. it’s all about “luck”. Do you really think so? Do you?
The point, Beniitec, is that for most of the season, everything went right.
Okay then, it was Al Martin and Gene Kingsale!
Where is Al Martin these days? Playing football at USC, or working on that whole bigamy thing?
Seriously though, it was a team effort, and some of it was just luck from the baseball gods.
“Luck,” btw, is the cumulative effect of events at too great a degree of granularity to control. And yes, a great deal of baseball — including having so many things break right for us in ’01 — comes down to “luck.”
#147: everything went right.
Including the fact that when the 2001 M’s faced Arizona in interleague play, the D-backs’ rotation lined up so that the M’s missed both Schilling and RJ. I think they’d have reached their limit at 114 or 115 had they faced either of those gentlemen.
145 – 2001 Pythagorean W/L was 109-53, it’s not as if they were an 85 win team that got lucky. They were already a pretty good squad that got an MVP caliber year out of Boone, 3 other offensive players that hit 20 or more HRs, a 20 win season out of Moyer, and excellent performances out of the entire bullpen. Any team that has all those elements come together should be expected to win 90 games at least.
Wow… of all the statistics I’ve seen on here the last couple of weeks…I didn’t expect that. I expected to read about different theories…etc. GM’s, Managers, a Bud Selig vacation… SOMETHING… But not luck.
Team effort I’ll believe. Careers were winding down…they left it on the field. They gave it all up for the manager. The 9/11 thing. Sentimental for Buhner…as it was his last year? Maybe that’s what the team needs? A reason to win other than a reason to NOT lose. I mean I see these guys playing to win a game because they don’t want to lose. Does anyone else see that? I mean it’s worse now because of their losing streak to the AL west…
Al Martin… LOVE IT. That was good.
Stay the hell away from Barry Zito.
I’ve seen this sentiment around before, and I don’t quite get it. Zito’s going to be overpriced, sure, but at least in part overpriced in the same way that all free agent pitchers are.
I can certainly see why teams would be wary of Zito, given his relatively weak peripheral numbers, but I seem to remember a lot of commotion after his 2003 season that his peripherals were way out of wack from his ERA and such, and then over the last two and a half seasons since then, he’s posted about a 4.00-ish ERA in a league with a 4.50ish league ERA. The Al Davis Reconfigurable Hole is something of a pitcher’s park, but I don’t think it’s out of line to expect Zito to be an above league average pitcher going forward. And Zito’s managed to stay pretty healthy, and doesn’t seem to have mechanics that would suggest an injury going forward.
I don’t know. Zito’s going to be overpaid, but he’s been pitching successfully with fairly weak peripherals for some time now, so I think it’s at least a little silly to think he’d just turn into a pumpkin overnight.
Since its the day of randomness I’ll go with it……
A couple thoughts on the roster makeup. Considerable money will be cleared up with Piniero, Meche and Moyer coming off the payroll. Enough to pay a Schmidt or Matsuzaka, as needed.
What to do with the lineup? Beltre is pretty much entrenched unless you want to try and send him back to the original LA or to the Padres, possibly. Don’t have an inhouse replacement and not sure you could get a decent replacement in return. Basically a salary dump. Best thought, probably remain status quo there.
First Base. Other place where big dollars are tied up. Options included trading Sexson to Gnats? They maybe would be interested if Barroid doesn’t come back next season? Could use a Broussard/Perez platoon then spend the money saved on more starting pitching? Hard to give up Sexon’s production in middle of lineup if he resorts back to 2005 form, as is likely. Better idea? Waiver wire deal for Broussard to contender right now? Opens up the LH DH role for Doyle the rest of the season. Should be able to get a solid position prospect or arm in return for Broussard at this point given his contract status and team control. I’d probably go with that option first, as it allows you to play Doyle in LF and move Ibanez back to DH. Doesn’t look like front office would consider moving Ibanez in trade as he’s become the quiet clubhous leader/role model for the youngin’s.
In the offseason gotta decide what to do with Reed. Is Jones ready for fulltime CF by next year? Doesn’t look like it now, so maybe start 2007 with Reed in MLB CF and Jones back at AAA CF getting experience then trade Reed for piece needed two months into season? Or would it just reduce Reed’s value even more if he starts off 2007 slow? Possibly teams still interested in him now and could blame wrist problems for bad performance? Yeah, reaching there but ya never know?
Bullpen pretty set. Agree, Shut down Soriano now and get him ready for 2007. Does no good to hurt him more now.
Basically, offseason focus on rotation, rotation, rotation!
#152 Regarding team effort, you have a point. Maybe having a new manager to play for would be what ends their losing streak. Another reason among many to fire Grover and move up Dan Rohn TODAY: to stop the losing, to get a new face in the clubhouse that will motivate the team to play for team pride.
It’s not often you get to throw a good Al Martin joke out there, I wasn’t going to miss my chance!
For what it’s worth, Jim Callis of Baseball America didn’t like the Mariners’ recent player moves , putting them in the same class as the Pirates:
Guileless In Seattle
The Mariners haven’t been more than two games over .500 all season, yet that has been enough to remain in contention in the American League West–which led to the pair of regretful trades with the Indians. Cabrera and Choo will soon be more cost-effective options than the starters Seattle currently employs, and discarding both for a DH platoon made the Mariners system take baseball’s biggest step back.
While Seattle overpaid, the Pirates didn’t extract nearly enough value in their deals either.
Regarding Cabrera, I’d have liked to have seen them get more, but I’m not sure I agree that he’ll be a more cost-effective option than what we currently have while still giving the same productivity. Regarding Choo? I think he’s completely off-base, ESPECIALLY if we wind up moving Sexson. The cost-effectiveness of that is an enormous change.
Small sample size theater caveat applies of course, but it’s hard to argue that Choo hasn’t done better than Broussard since the trade:
Broussard in 46 AB: .174 .204 .435 .639
Choo in 57 AB: .333 .397 .544 .941
Re #152: Anyone who doesn’t understand the importance of “luck” — for lack of a better word; if you find one you prefer, go with it — in baseball doesn’t understand the game. The difference between hitting the ball on the screws and just getting under it is too fine for conscious control; the difference between atmospheric conditions which carry the ball over the fence and those which hang it up for a long flyout is beyond human control; the slight variations in grip, motion, and release which make the difference between snapping off a curveball and hanging it are beyond a pitcher’s ability to completely control; and the accumulation of such matters, too fine for human beings to really control but critical to the outcome of the batter-pitcher matchup, over the course of a game, a series, a season, constitutes “luck.” It’s why we have fluke seasons, and it’s a major reason why the game isn’t as predictable as a computer program.
I’d also call your attention to H. L. Mencken’s comment that “for every question there is an answer which is simple, easy to understand, and wrong.” Was team effort involved in the M’s 116-win ride in ’01? Of course. Is it an explanation for 116 wins? Not by any rational standard. Team effort isn’t the reason everyone played well, it isn’t the reason we had a half-dozen players turn in career years at the same time with no significant underperformers, it isn’t the reason we didn’t have any season-killing injuries . . . it isn’t the reason a team that might reasonably have been expected to top out at 94 wins racked up 116.
As for 151, Xteve, you have too narrow a definition of luck. Luck doesn’t only go into outperforming your Pythagorean W/L, it also goes into the totals of runs scored and allowed that produce it. Yes, that was a team that should have been expected to win at least 90; it doesn’t change the fact that they were wildly lucky to win 116.
#161 – I’m all for luck, and with a little luck, we might see Hargrove fired, let’s say on Monday, after the team has been swept by the Angels! If that’s what it takes.
The 2001 Ms had both incredibly good hitting, pitching, and defense across the team level. Maybe nobody on the pitching staff wowed you, but, much like the 05 ChiSox, they were incledibly deep, pitching like a staff full of 2s and 3s. The fielding was great, and the hitting, top to bottom was unstoppable for the same reason the 06 version is stoppable, OBP.
Let’s suppose the M’s had gone, oh, 5 and 6 on this road trip. And, at the end of it, they were about 8 games out. Grover would continue to put on the brave (if flustered) face; the recent demotion (and let us hope the final departure) of Jo-el would not have happened, O’Flaherty and Doyle would likely not be here, and our interest (rather than being morbidly focused) would be far more dissipated. I really hate to root against the M’s (and I cannot root against the King), but consider: if they go 0 and 11, it is possible that Hargrove will be gone. (Well, I can dream, can’t I?). And that Rohn will be in, and PERHAPS he will use Doyle and Jones (why wouldn’t you?? Pissed off (and, dare I say, pissed) as DMZ was last night, can you imaagine this page the day they DFA Doyle next year HAVING NEVER EVEN GIVEN HIM A CHANCE THIS YEAR??? ….
Anyway, every silver lining has a touch of . . . silver, doesn’t it??
“[Barry Zito has] posted about a 4.00-ish ERA in a league with a 4.50ish league ERA.”
Please see any previous post here that explains how ERA is a poor predictive stat.
Barry Zito, FIPs, 2004-6: 4.57, 4.37, 5.00
Barry Zito, xFIPs, 2004-6: 5.04, 4.61, 5.33
Barry Zito, K/BB, 2004-6: 2.01, 1.92, 1.57
For Reference
Washburn, FIPs, 2004-6: 4.60, 4.37, 4.65
Washburn, xFIPs, 2004-6: 5.06, 5.01, 5.33
Washburn, K/BB, 2004-6: 2.15, 1.84, 1.81
They both generate GBs at about the same 35-40% rate.
Barry Zito is Jarrod Washburn (maybe even worse) and he will cost 150% times as much as Washburn. STAY THE HELL AWAY FROM BARRY ZITO
J Schmidt, FIPs, 2004-6: 2.78, 3.77, 3.48
J Schmidt, xFIPs, 2004-6: 3.35, 4.40, 4.43
J Schmidt, K/BB, 2004-6: 3.26, 1.94, 2.41
Jason Schmidt is, by far, the better pitcher. He also WANTS to pitch in Seattle which in turn means the Ms have a better shot at getting him to a shorter (maybe 3yr instead of 5 to Zito) and/or cheaper (9-10M instead of 12-14M to Zito)
I don’t have a lot of time, but the Ancient Mariner’s take on “luck” belongs in the artifact heap… (if I missed my following point made elsewhere in the post, sorry…)
The difference between hitting a ball square and missing with a popup or grounder may be miniscule, but isn’t attributable to luck – even if luck comes into play frequently. It just isn’t frequent enough to matter…
If such difference (include the pitcher points as well) were indeed luck, then the difference between a hall of fame career and a brief cup of joe is simply chance, which is complete BS.
Pitchers & hitters DO have control over timing, even if that timing is beyond the ken of direct conscience control…
It isn’t luck, it isn’t chance: it’s control ahead of time so that the action yields a predictable result…
They may not have “dominated”, whatever that means, but they had the best offense and the second-best defense in baseball that year. Chemistry? No, it’s about scoring runs and preventing runs. Collectively they CLUBBED league pitching to death — 5.72 runs a game in an extreme pitcher’s park. And even considering that park their 3.87 runs allowed is freaking insane. They were a team with no weak spots, no easy outs in the lineup, no soft spots in the rotation, no gaps in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings, and outstanding defense at every position. Even little Danny Wilson hit that year.
Luck? Sure. It’s impossible to win 116 games without luck. The AL All-Stars probably coudn’t do it. But they were an outstanding team.
Chemistry? Meh.
There certainly was an element of luck to the 2001 season. Aside from players having career years (and alternating good nights, so they never all got cold at the same time) there was the “2 outs so what” thing — a lot of those hits just missed gloves, but could easily have been caught if any one of huge number of variables were slightly different. It’s not like they were knocking balls into seats on a regular basis; this wasn’t a team that won with overpowering offense or a couple of lights-out aces. Which was precisely why they had problems in the postseason, where aces and home runs can win you 3 games in a short series.
Anyway, I like to think the M’s saved up all their bad luck and used it in that one jaw-dropping game vs Cleveland. Perhaps they had a kind of baseball Maxwell’s Demon that allowed the bad luck to flow into that game and kept the good luck in all the others.
Luck means that Ichiro is a die that comes up “hit” 30% of the time, “walk” 7%, and “out” 63% of the time.
They DID win with overpowering offense. They scored more runs than anyone else, in an extreme pitcher’s park. They may not have led the league in homers, but they were fourth in the AL in Slugging, IN AN EXTREME PITCHERS PARK. They were an offensive machine, beating people’s brains in all year long.
#167–Jason Schmidt is, by far, the better pitcher. He also WANTS to pitch in Seattle which in turn means the Ms have a better shot at getting him to a shorter (maybe 3yr instead of 5 to Zito) and/or cheaper (9-10M instead of 12-14M to Zito)
I don’t know that Schmidt WANTS to pitch in Seattle — he is willing to pitch in Seattle.
As he put it in SF later: “When I was in Seattle this time, a lot was said and a lot of things got blown out of proportion,†Schmidt said last week. “(Reporters) really grilled me about it, and I reacted like an 8-year-old instead of like a grown man. I tried to be honest and said it would be exciting if I did ever play there, and that there was a lull here. But after I left, I felt kind of bad about how it was portrayed — like I really didn’t appreciate what I’d done here, and I really do.â€
and to quote the APs Janie McCauley at the trade deadline: “The Giants are interested in re-signing Schmidt, who has told Sabean in the past he would be interested in discussing staying in San Francisco. The Mets and Yankees are expected to pursue Schmidt this winter. Arizona and Seattle also would be logical fits for the right-hander, who is from Washington and now lives in the Phoenix area. “He has enjoyed his time here,” Sabean said. “But that remains to be seen. The season is not over and he certainly has the off-season to look forward to.”
and just a reminder– he didn’t go for the hometown discount the last time, or the hometown bonus — from Eric Gilmore on June 12th: “Schmidt nearly signed as a free agent with the Seattle Mariners, his home-state team and the team he had grown up rooting for. The Mariners offered Schmidt a four-year deal believed to be worth $32 million. He turned them down and signed with the Giants for less money, a four-year, $30-million deal that included a $10 million team option for 2006.”
In 2001 the Mariners accumulated almost a hundred more EQR than any other team — 978.6. They had five players in the top twenty in RARP. Everybody was great — even our backup catcher (Tom Lampkin) was hitting the snot out of the ball (compared to other backup catchers at least). Even Al Martin was useful. There were no Willie Boom-Booms on that team.
This comes up all the time. I don’t know why. The 2001 M’s had an absolutely outstanding offense in every possible way. The pitchers, too. It’s not a mystery why they won.
Yeah, he signed with the Giants last time because he said he thought they were closer to a WS than Seattle at the time. I would say though, that now that he’s already cashed in once, he’d be more likely to take a discount to pitch where he wants.
I’m not saying he only wants to pitch in Seattle, but Seattle is a preferred place for him, made moreso by the fact that we pursued him highly last time around.
Unless he’s stupid, and I don’t think he is, there’s no way he re-signs with SF if he cares at all about winning and it seems like he does based on his comments about signing w/SF previously.
The Mariners won in 2001 because of their on base skills throughout the lineup, and historically good defense. They turned 73.5% of balls in play into outs. The pitching was good, but not great, and benefited from the defense, especially the outfield. Ichiro, Cameron, and McLemore/Javier ran down everything. With the exception of David Bell and Dan Wilson, every regular had at least a .329 OBP. Ichiro, Ibanez, and Johjima are the only starters this year above that mark.
Please see any previous post here that explains how ERA is a poor predictive stat.
I’ve seen them. When a pitcher beats his xFIP for 1300 innings though, I’m inclined to note the fact that no one metric is perfect or applicable in every situation.
STAY THE HELL AWAY FROM BARRY ZITO
Shouting doesn’t make your point any more (or less) valid.
Like I said, I see the warning signs with Zito, but I think Zito’s definitely worth a longer look than Washburn.
With the dissipation of his slider, Clint Nageotte isn’t any kind of prospect, no. But it sounds to me as if his elbow’s about gone, given first a steady and sustained drop in velocity, then a flattening of that big sweeper leading to Vanishing K Disease, then a spike in his H/9, then all FB which means he’s not following through enough to get the pitch down anymore, which is exactly the future one might have inferred from him throwing that big slurvy thang for years. Supposing that he is in fact damaged, I don’t know if he’s not being honest about an injury, or if the Ms are having him try to keep going despite a chronic but non-catastrophic situation in his arm. I suspect he’s a good candidate for TJ surgery by now. If he gets it, maybe he comes back to some kind of career, but to me that’s what it’s going to take: his numbers have ‘arm injury’ written all over them. Too bad.
Zito, granted his track record and good curveball, is an average hurler at best, and will come far more overrated and at a far higher price than Washburn. Avoid, plz, and let someone else make that fiscal mistake. Personnel mistake? Certainly not. Zito is a strong asset. But fiscally, signing him at the price Boras will want is a HUGE mistake.
…and Doyle is the only guy in the lineup to reach base thus far.
How about the luck of keeping the entire lineup healthy for almost the whole season (until Carlos Guillen was unlucky enough to come down with TB)?
“I’ve seen them. When a pitcher beats his xFIP for 1300 innings though, I’m inclined to note the fact that no one metric is perfect or applicable in every situation.”
Or that, perhaps, he pitches in a park favorable to pitchers.
But, ok, you want to ignore xFIP? fine. What about FIP? K rate? BB rate? HR rate? Oh, you want to ignore those too?
Way to focus on one part of the post and completely ignore the rest. If you’d like to present some sort of evidence beyond ERA that Barry Zito is significantly better than Jarrod Washburn, I’m all ears.
JAS, you missed my point, and then proceeded to read your misinterpretation far too strongly. The greatest factors in player careers, no question, are (in some order) talent, training, and health. Yes, batters and pitchers have control over timing. However, in a situation where fractions of seconds and fractions of inches can make huge differences, they don’t have enough control — no one’s body, no one’s mind, is that precise; even our fine motor skills aren’t that fine, given that what’s primarily in play aren’t fine motor skills, but gross motor skills.
Therefore, in every pitch, in every swing, conscious control only extends so far. As well, you have atmospheric conditions, etc., which are completely outside any human control. What this means is that in every at-bat, there are elements which are beyond the full conscious control of either participant; they matter to varying degrees at any given point, but they’re always present, and they (or their effects, anyway) are what we refer to as “luck.”
I’m not remotely surprised that Doyle was claimed on a waiver post if true. He can flat hit, and would be a great pick-up for free more or less. If I were in KC or Pittsburgh or anywhere in Florida, I’d put up both hands if his contract popped up. And for the love of God, he can do more for the Ms than Greg Dobbs, Mike Morse, or other random hairballs the Mariners FO seems to treasure so much that they keep buying plane tickets for them to travel around the country. Let’s have Doyle; he can at least play.
Between Lou and Grover, I’ll take Grover: he doesn’t get you any advantages, but he doesn’t break anything whereas Lou lost you at least as many advantages as he got and broke lots of useful things.
Re: #74 on Aybar, yeah, that’s a good description. Aybar is a good, close compt to Jose Reyes. He’ll have a bunch more ISO than Betancourt at every stage. Yuniesky will have better D, but Aybar’s pretty good with room to get better.
Kendrick is so much more a complete player than Jose Lopez at this point he wins hands down, and he’ll stay a better defender always. If Jose improves his approach at the plate, I say IF, he could end up having more value, as he’s a line drive machine now—but there’s no guarantee that Lopez improves at all. And the League has caught on to him now since he swings at so many non-strikes he’s not getting too many fat pitches in the second half. So Kendrick, as the professional hitter, has the advantage.
Then there’s Santana for the La-Las. I see Wood more as another Dallas McPfft—but Mike Napoli just zoomed by a couple of other guys, and is already making a significant contribution. The Angels have just done a better job focusing on getting _actual, starting players_ out of their farm system than the Ms have.
I’m far happier having Adam Jones than Brandon Wood, I’ll say that.
What do you know about Austin Bibens-Dirkx? Could he become a cheap bullpen arm by 2008 or so?
Upside – Jeff Nelson circa mid-late 90s.
Downside – Jeff Nelson, anytime else.
It’s hard not to compare the two when their stuff seems so similar with the same funky sidarm delivery. Bibens-Dirkx is making low-A ballers look like idiots. He’s got 42 strikeouts in 31 professional innings pitched and only 5 walks. Puts the ball in the air too much for my tastes. Minorleaguesplits.com shows him as having issued up 18 groundballs, 16 linedrives, 28 flyballs, 10 popups, 1 bunt. (19:54 ratio, extreme flyballer, numbers as of August 15).
Still, there’s something to be said for a guy who has had 46 percent of his outs come via strikeouts (if my numbers are right, he’s struck out 35% of the batters he’s faced).
I like him.
Matthew Carruth,
I actually feel you’re the one who’s being a bit shortsighted on Zito. Sure, we can partially attribute him besting his FIP to the Athletics’ defensive prowess these past few seasons. But honestly, Zito does have a lengthy resume of outperforming his peripherals (I’ve read no less than three stat gurus in the last three months mention that very thing to me). I certainly don’t think it’s out of the question to believe that Zito could continue to pitch better than league average for the foreseeable future. Peripheral stats are a fantastic guide, but sometimes you lose sight of the forest for the trees, y’know?