Looking Ahead: Jeff Clement
Today, we continue the irregularly scheduled Looking Ahead series, where I do a slightly more in depth post on a player from the M’s farm system. The Bryan LaHair feature generated a lot of positive response, so I’m going to try to do at least a couple more of these before the end of the year. This time around, we’re going to take a look at the Mariners Catcher Of The Future (TM), Jeff Clement.
Jeff Clement has been a big name prospect for a long time. He played in the Little League World Series in 1996, and he is still the nationwide high school home run champion, launching 75 bombs in his four years of prep baseball. The record was previously held by Drew Henson, and Clement got significant accolades in both his junior and senior years. A firm commitment to USC scared teams off, however, and the Twins finally selected him in the 12th round of the 2002 draft. He turned down their offer to attend college, and went on to have a very nice career for the Trojans.
The Mariners used the third overall selection in the 2005 draft to select Clement, going for a power left-handed bat at a position where they had no long term solution. Reports on him coming out of college were very good on his power, but not so good on other aspects of his game. His defense was considered a work in progress, and scouts were split on whether he would remain behind the plate or eventually move to first base. The Mariners insisted that they projected him as a catcher, and they worked with him extensively on his footwork and release to help improve his skills as a receiver.
Clement’s professional debut went very well, as he beat the tar out of the ball in the Midwest League. While low-A ball isn’t a huge challenge for a star college hitter, Wisconsin is still not an easy place to hit, and Clement posted a .319/.386/.522. He showed both patience and power, and while his contact rates (19.7% K, 9.7% BB) weren’t as good as they were in college, scouts were very impressed with his adjustment to using wood bats. He entered the 2006 season neck-and-neck with Adam Jones for the title of best prospect in the system.
He began the 2006 season with an assignment to Double-A San Antonio and continued hitting right out of the gate. His .288/.386/.525 line during the first 15 games of the season continued to show the skills he was known for – a good approach at the plate, knowledge of the strike zone, and serious power (11.1% K, 10.0% BB). However, just two weeks into the season, he required knee surgery to repair a torn miniscus in his left knee and remove bone chips from his left elbow. This sidelined him until June, and upon his return, the Mariners gave him a promotion to Triple-A Tacoma.
Things haven’t gone as well since his return. He’s struggling for the first time in his life as PCL pitchers have proven more of a challenge. He’s hitting just .252/.320/.354 in 206 at-bats, and his base skills that we know he has haven’t demonstrated themselves. He has just 14 walks in 206 at-bats and is failing to make consistent contact, striking out 47 times (20.1% K, 6.9% BB). He’s also not making consistent hard contact – just 13 of his 52 hits have gone for extra bases. This slump isn’t a case of him hitting the ball right at people. He’s just not making solid contact. He’s posting a ridiculous 27.9% IF/F rate. Essentially, when he hits it in the air, it’s not leaving the infield.
Clement just turned 23 this week, so there’s no real reason to be concerned about his struggles. The promotion to Tacoma was extremely aggressive to begin with, and when combined with the fact that he had missed six weeks due to an injury, it’s not a big surprise that he’s experiencing an adjustment period. The skillset of power and patience is still there, but he just needs to adjust to better pitchers and start making better contact more frequently.
Clement’s struggles in Tacoma have made it easy to have him begin the 2007 season back in the PCL and ignore the talks about what to do with him and Kenji Johjima when Clement is major league ready. The team is wisely taking a “we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it” approach, realizing that many things can happen over the course of time, and making a decision now based on Clement’s projected arrival time isn’t in the best interests of the franchise.
I’m firmly against the suggestions of moving Clement to another position to get his bat to the majors sooner. With the additions of Ben Broussard and Chris Snelling to the line-up on a regular basis, the Mariners have added two major league quality left-handed bats that they didn’t have a month ago. Despite all the cries for “left handed sock” that we have heard the past year, the current line-up is actually fairly well balanced, with Ichiro, Ibanez, Broussard, and Snelling all swinging quality bats from the left side.
The M’s would be wise to let Jeff Clement force his way into the major leagues, rather than rearranging the deck chairs to try to push up his timetable. With Johjima around, the Mariners don’t have a hole to fill at the catcher position, and the team has enough other options at 1B/DH that moving him from behind the dish shouldn’t be an option. His receiving skills have developed nicely, and his defensive reputation is significantly better now than it was a year ago.
With Jeff Clement and Adam Jones, the Mariners have two strong up-the-middle building blocks for their future sitting just half an hour south of Safeco Field. While they gave in to the temptation of bringing Jones up to fill a need, the team would do well to ignore any similar unctions they get with Jeff Clement. Give him another year in Tacoma, and he’ll let you know when he’s ready for the show.
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Dave, how do Clement’s defensive skills break down?
Ah, but what does this mean for Rene Rivera?
Or, more specifically, where has he made progress and where does he still need work on?
One thing I haven’t understood is why the M’s are so willing to baby Felix while they throw their potential All-Star hitting prospects in the deep end, then wonder why they have so much trouble hitting.
Yes, I know, Felix depends on a healthy arm and shoulder, and he had nothing left to prove in Tacoma. But that’s part of the problem — Jones wasn’t ready for Seattle, and Clement wasn’t ready for Tacoma. What was so wrong with leaving Clement in San Antonio this year? Why did Jones stay up well after Hargrove stopped playing him?
Why are they so stuck on pushing prospects like this?
unctions?
http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/unction
Did you mean actions?
Oh, and great analysis, Dave. I’ve been meaning to ask if you were going to do one of these for Clement.
One thing I haven’t understood is why the M’s are so willing to baby Felix while they throw their potential All-Star hitting prospects in the deep end, then wonder why they have so much trouble hitting.
I’m no expert, but it seems to me that hitting is a skill that can be “repaired” – if Clement struggles at first, all it takes is some serious cage time and game exposure to get his swing grooved again, and the M’s are willing to take that chance because it doesn’t physically hurt him.
With Felix, it’s seemingly more a long-term physical health issue – if the M’s tear his arm up in his first two years in the name of one or two meaningless wins in a 90-loss season, he’ll never reach the potential everyone knows he has.
Dave,
Nice evaluation.
I am trying to understand why the M’s promoted Clement after he came back from his injury. That promotion just makes zero sense to me. Coming into the season, I thought that Clement could end up at Inland Empire or San Antonio: his bat was probably ready for AA, but he needed time to work on his defense, so putting him in high-A to focus on catching would make sense. Besides, I figured that Rob Johnson belonged in AA, and that that might effect where they would put Clement. With Johnson ahead of him in the organization, and with Guillermo Quiroz, River, and Johjima in the organization, why rush him? Their decision to start him in AA seemed agressive, but not totally unreasonable.
He was doing fine in AA, but he was only there for 15 games. I just don’t see the wisdom in promoting a catcher to AAA after only 15 ABs above A-ball, especially after coming off a knee injury. Did they want him to work with a specific catching coach there? Is there some other piece of information that is missing?
From an outsider perspective, promoting him to Tacoma makes no sense. The organization actually has good depth at the position. The aggressive promotions to him and Rob Johnson just seem like bad ideas, and both players seem to be struggling. If the M’s want them to face adversity early on, it seems like they have succeeded.
Dave, how do Clement’s defensive skills break down?
His footwork is still just okay, but it’s better than it was when he was at USC. He doesn’t slide sideways particularly well, but he’s improved at blocking balls in the dirt.
His arm strength is fine. That’s not a problem. His pop time (from when he catches it to when it gets to second baseman), however, is a little slow (2.1-2.2 usually) because he doesn’t get himself into throwing position very quickly. Part of that is because he’s a pretty big kid, and he’ll probably never have great pop times, but this is a technique that can be improved.
He’s never going to win a gold glove, and his CS% rates will probably hover in the low 30s. But he’s not Matt LeCroy back there – he can legitimate catch in the major leagues.
Why are they so stuck on pushing prospects like this?
This goes along with Jerry’s question, so I’ll just answer them together.
Bavasi has always believed in the need to fail before you can succeed. If you heard him talk at the USSM feed this spring, you heard him reiterate this point. He doesn’t want kids failing for the first time in the major leagues. He believes that it is in the best interests long term for a prospect to struggle, and then overcome, before he reaches the major leagues.
I don’t agree with him, and I wouldn’t do it the same way, but I don’t have enough empirical data to take an impassioned stance on the issue. He might be right. I don’t think he is, but I can’t say for certain that he’s not.
Basically, the M’s want Clement, Tui, Jones, Johnson, and Navarro to struggle, and they’ll keep promoting them until they do. They don’t look at Jeff Clement’s problems with PCL pitching right now as a bad thing. They see it as part of the necessary development of a major league hitter.
We’ll see, I guess.
unctions?
The context I’ve always heard and used the term in is something like a feeling that compels you to some sort of action. When its 104 and humid out here, I have an unction to take a shower.
So, you’re getting unctions for showers from what, February through November?
It’s only going to be 90 today and humidity is only in the 40% range. Not as bad as it could be.
But yea, it’s hot out here.
Dave, where do you rank Clement on the list of catching prospects in the minors? Would you put anyone above him in the minors?
Great analysis, Dave. Well thought out and well written.
With that said, can I make one suggestion? The way the following sentence reads: “He showed both patience and power, and while his contact rates weren’t as good as they were in college (19.7% K, 9.7% BB)…” it sounds like the numbers given were his college contact rates. I’m guessing they were his poorish #s from Wisconson. Maybe the sentence should read something like, “He showed both patience and power, and while his contact rates (19.7% K, 9.7% BB) weren’t as good as they were in college (#% K, #% BB)…” I was just initially confused when reading the remainder of the analysis. Thanks.
Also, do you think it was a mistake by the organization to promote Clement after an injury? That approach certainly doesn’t seem to set anyone up for success.
I am really glad there are no plans to move Clement to another position or to rush him to the big leagues. Having a power LH bat like his at C will be huge for the M’s. That’s how you get an elite offense …. get abnormally good production out of a spot where you traditionally don’t.
Dave, is there a big league catcher that Clement can be compared to? Are you projecting a Jorge Posada or Jason Veritek type (minus the switch hitting)or not that good?
I love Jarrod Saltalamacchia, despite his down year, and would probably swap Clement for Salty straight up. Other guys like Chris Iannetta and George Kottaras aren’t that far behind.
Clement would probably rank #2 on my personal list, but the difference between the top four isn’t huge.
I was just initially confused when reading the remainder of the analysis. Thanks.
Fixed. Thanks for the catch.
Also, do you think it was a mistake by the organization to promote Clement after an injury? That approach certainly doesn’t seem to set anyone up for success.
It’s a philosophical disagreement. I’m not willing to use the word mistake, becuase I don’t think we understand player development well enough to really launch a criticism with any kind of solid backing.
Dave, is there a big league catcher that Clement can be compared to? Are you projecting a Jorge Posada or Jason Veritek type (minus the switch hitting)or not that good?
No, there’s really not. Brian McCann comes the closest as a guy with a left-handed home run stroke, but as a hitter, he actually reminds me more of Travis Hafner – a good approach at the plate with huge pull power. I’m not projecting him to become Hafner – Hafner developed better than anyone could have expected – but he’s got a similar hitting style and skillset.
My guess is that, in his prime, Clement can hit .280/.390/.550 or something like that. But that’s a best case scenario.
Wow. 280/390/550 is monstrous for a catcher. What do you think is the low-end of Clement’s talent level, then? 250/350/450? That’s still pretty darned good for a catcher.
What are the chances the M’s bring Clement up and work him in as a platoon player at catcher? If Joh’s still with the team in ‘07, could that be a possibility? A LH/RH platoon at catcher could yield huge offensive results for the M’s, plus leave another good RH/LH bat on the bench.
Wow. 280/390/550 is monstrous for a catcher. What do you think is the low-end of Clement’s talent level, then? 250/350/450? That’s still pretty darned good for a catcher.
Well, the low-end is that he never makes it, never adjusts, never gets better. Pulls a Jeremy Reed, basically. But that’s not a normal circumstance – I’d peg his mean projection during his prime years as something like .260/.330/.500. The power is legit, and there’s almost no question he’s going to hit a lot of home runs. The real question is how his approach at the plate develops. It’s been great every year until now, and so most of the evidence suggests he’s going to still be a high on base guy going forward, but this hiccup will give the projections a bit of pause.
What are the chances the M’s bring Clement up and work him in as a platoon player at catcher? If Joh’s still with the team in ‘07, could that be a possibility? A LH/RH platoon at catcher could yield huge offensive results for the M’s, plus leave another good RH/LH bat on the bench.
It’s a possibility, but not a good idea. You don’t want Clement developing by playing two to three times a week. It’s a waste of his development and service time. Leave him in Tacoma until he’s ready to come up and start hitting from day one. And if Johjima’s still around then, you have a really nifty backup catcher.
In April, Bavasi was pretty clear in his reasoning. He thinks the jump to the majors is bigger than any of the steps in the minors, so it’s the place where players are most likely to fail. Furthermore, he thinks that players who fail for the first time in majors are more likely to become demoralised and believe they simply aren’t good enough to play there. As such, he wants them to fail before they reach the majors, and since the steps in the minors are smaller, in order to make the kids fail he needs to push them up really quickly to ensure they do.
And thus, when they do reach the majors and face an adjustment period, they won’t immediately think they’re permanently overmatched; instead, they’ll remember that they fought through just this situation before, and be more able to do it again.
As Dave mentioned, we don’t know if this actually works. But it does seem a pretty well thought out plan.
Interesting theory from Bavasi. That which doesn’t kill us, only makes us stronger. Still I can’t see where the promotion after an injury makes much sense.
Have loved the reports you have produced on LaHair and now Clement, great segments for a floundering season. I understand this would be a lot of work, but I would love to hear your opinions on pitching prospects below the AAA level–as there isn’t much to speak of in Tacoma. Especially some of the new acquisition, such as early impressions of Chick and Baldwin. Chick had a great July, but has fallen off a little in August.
I’ve only started to follow the lower leagues the last few years, and only from a statistical standpoint. But a kid I rarely hear mentioned is Robert Rohrbaugh. He looked very impressive at Inland and has pitched just as well as Feierabend in AA.
Lastly, if any one has video of the Snelling and Ichiro catches in the 4th and 7th inning respectively, it would be much appreciated. Living in the Yankee hell hole that is NYC, these are the only M’s games I don’t get on MLB.tv, due to YES blackouts.
Dave i disagree with the fact that clement will throw out 30% .2.1-2.2 is way below avg and his foot work isnt good behind the dish.I would say he is a touch below joh catching wise and for me thats not good.Now Johnson is a first rate defender and by watching him play he shows leadership skills out there.Johnson 1.91-1.95 thrower to second very quick feet and accurate arm i think this is the mariners starting catcher of the future and clement is the DH.What do you think?
And if johjima’s still around then, you have a really nifty backup catcher
Would the back up be Johjima or Clement?
Dave,
Since more major league pitchers are righthanders than lefthanders, wouldn’t that mean that Clement’s likely to play four times a week instead of two or three in a platoon situation? Since he’s a catcher anyway, and is going to need time off, would that be a good way to work him in?
And is removing him from LH pitching likely to stunt his development?
Chris,
I don’t want to keep removing your posts, so please, please, please start using punctuation. Here, I’ll even give you an example.
Dave, I disagree with the fact that Clement will throw out 30% of base stealers. A pop time of 2.1-2.2 is way below avg and his footwork isn’t good behind the dish. I would say he is a touch below Joh catching wise and for me thats not good.
Now Johnson is a first rate defender and watching him play, he has shown leadership skills out there. Johnson’s pop times are 1.91-1.95 to second, he has very quick feet, and an accurate arm. I think this is the Mariners starting catcher of the future and Clement is the DH. What do you think?
I added a couple of spaces, capitalized a few words, and added a conjunction or a comma here or there. Took about 30 seconds. Your post went from head scratching to actually adding thoughts to the conversation. I’d love it if you’d do this on your own.
Anyways, to your points – pop times aren’t static, and they can be improved. They can get Clement to 2.0 seconds or so, and that’s good enough for a guy with his bat. The obsession with holding baserunners is overrated anyways. Clement’s good enough to not be an embarrassment behind the plate.
As for Rob Johnson, he just isn’t a major league quality hitter. His swing is long, he struggles with breaking balls, and he has a poor approach at the plate. No amount of leadership or a strong arm can make up for a .300 OBP. Rob Johnson’s a backup in the majors.
I guess I do have a notion that it might be good to switch positions with him, although I admit it’s mostly based on an old Bill James piece about how the defensive pressures of catching cause catchers to not develop as hitters as well as players at other positions. I read it a long time ago, and I’m not sure how robust his research was, but if playing catcher is going to stunt Clement as a hitter, and hitting is his main asset, it would be tempting (at least to me) to move him.
“Rob Johnson’s a backup in the majors.”
But a ML-quality backup catcher has value. It’s nice to have a guy like that in the system. It’s good to know there’s an extra catcher in the system, so that you don’t have the embarrassment of trading for Pat Borders. Again.
Since more major league pitchers are righthanders than lefthanders, wouldn’t that mean that Clement’s likely to play four times a week instead of two or three in a platoon situation? Since he’s a catcher anyway, and is going to need time off, would that be a good way to work him in?
He needs to face LHPs. If he hits .350/.450/.600 in Tacoma for the first few months of ‘07, I might consider if it if the M’s are in a pennant race and could use the offensive boost, but it’s not the best situation for his development.
#22: In April, Bavasi was pretty clear in his reasoning. He thinks the jump to the majors is bigger than any of the steps in the minors, so it’s the place where players are most likely to fail.
There’s more significance to that statement than just player development. Bavasi has previously stated that he is uncomfortable with translations of minor league stats to major league performance. Given that and his perception of the gap between AAA ball and MLB, I don’t think he diligently looks at AAA ball as a source of talent to fill out a roster. He’ll always take the “established” MLB player over a journeyman AAA guy with an equivalent or better translation.
If he hits 350/450/600 in Tacoma, then I’d think he has nothing left to prove. Bring him up. He’s ready for The Show.
I see your point about his needing to face LHP, and I think you’re right.
The other nice thing about a guy like Clement is that he automatically strengthens your bench. A catcher is going to get one or two games a week off. Having Clement on the bench as an extra left-handed bat is a huge bonus.
Dave, you made mention of Chris Ianetta as not far behind Clement…I get to see Ianetta in action every night, and so far he is playing very well in Colorado Springs. He doesn’t seem to be struggling in the adjustment. Does Clement simply have a better ceiling than Ianetta? Is this why you would rate Clement higher?
There’s more significance to that statement than just player development. Bavasi has previously stated that he is uncomfortable with translations of minor league stats to major league performance. Given that and his perception of the gap between AAA ball and MLB, I don’t think he diligently looks at AAA ball as a source of talent to fill out a roster. He’ll always take the “established†MLB player over a journeyman AAA guy with an equivalent or better translation.
I’m pretty sure that’s not true, Steve. When Grover kept asking for another reliever, he intentionally traded Guardado to create a roster spot for Mark Lowe, which is about as far as you can get from choosing a veteran over a kid. He’s pushed Fruto and O’Flaherty to the majors. He brought up Choo after Reed got hurt and suggested Grover give him a chance in center field.
Bill likes talent. He doesn’t always evaluate it perfectly, but he’s not anything like Pat Gillick in his preference for veterans.
If he hits 350/450/600 in Tacoma, then I’d think he has nothing left to prove. Bring him up. He’s ready for The Show.
Probably, but would you say his .280/.380/.525 line in Double-A proved he was ready for Tacoma? If not, why not? What’s the difference?
I’m of the opinion that most “intelligent” fans take minor league numbers too seriously, especially in small samples. They don’t do any mental regressions, and take a players line as a true interpretation of his talent level at the moment. It’s the same trap that everyone fell into when Adam Jones started whacking the baseball for six weeks.
Dave, you made mention of Chris Ianetta as not far behind Clement…I get to see Ianetta in action every night, and so far he is playing very well in Colorado Springs. He doesn’t seem to be struggling in the adjustment. Does Clement simply have a better ceiling than Ianetta? Is this why you would rate Clement higher?
Iannetta, like a lot of Rockies prospects, is tough to evaluate contextually, because the Rockies minor league parks are hitters havens. He’s posting good numbers in places where he should be posting good numbers. If he wasn’t hitting in Colorado Springs (or Tulsa, or Modesto, or Asheville), I’d be worried.
Since I haven’t seen him personally, I just don’t know. His numbers are tough to take at face value. Even park adjusted, they’re still good, which is why I put him in the top four, but I don’t have a real firm grasp on how good he actually is.
It might of just been me, but it seemed like the 2005 draft was unique, in that it had some great hitters available early but not real deep with any premier pitchers (the opposite of 2006). With Gordon and Upton going before the M’s got to pick, I kind of questioned the pick of Clement.
It was obvious that the M’s needed imediate help at catcher after what they were going through with Wilson going down and Olivio sucking, but any catcher picked up in the draft was years away. Now that I’ve learned more about Clement’s ceiling and what else was available with the third pick, I think they did allright.
It has been said, you pick the best athlete in the draft and let everyone battle for their position. It will be interesting to see the next two to three years to see what the organization will do with an aging Johjima and a rising Clement.
The question i have is: A year later, is Clement still the better pick than Zimmerman? Zimmerman obviously is doing pretty good this year in the bigs, where Clement has at least another season in the minors before he’s ready to challenge for a real role for the M’s. Zimmerman’s position is Third base and i’m sure everyone would scream if the M’s used their first pick in the draft to get a Third baseman right after they signed Beltre for the next 5 years.
Was it a PR case for the front office not wanting to upset the fans and their new FA signing by not getting Zimmerman. Or is Clement truly a better fit long term for the M’s than Zimmerman would be?
I believe we should use caution in making general statements about psychological practices. I am not an expert psychologist, never played one during my acting career, but one person might be rushed into a failure “opportunity” (as Jung would characterize it,) and another can’t get there soon enough.
How could one achieve the kind of youthful stardom that Dave described in the first part of his post, and not develop a head with dimensions akin to the undearly departed Kingdome? He might have needed this experience NOW – or it might have been a terrible mistake coming off the injury, but Clement was going to need it sometime.
You guys know the relevant coaching staffs. Would you trust their judgment on this? I assume they would be able to sway Bavasi.
Think of Ichiro’s recent slump, how he stepped up to the plate, tugged that sleeve, and persisted right through it. Being the Bushido player he is, he may have never needed this kind of experience. But if not this season, it strikes me as highly likely that Clement would need it some time, and be grateful for it before his career is over – we all hope, many, many years from now.
Thanks to you all for this great discussion.
RHB at third base are a pretty common commodity. A LH power hitter behind the plate is rare. I think Clement was the right pick.
Let’s try that again.
It’s more that the Rockies system is a very disparate group of stadia at different elevations:
Modesto — balanced, near sea level
Asheville — strong HR park, high in the Smokies
Tulsa — slight HR park, <1000ft
Colorado Springs — strong offensive park but average HRs, 5500ft
It doesn’t seem to affect the prospects much, though. It just takes some getting used to.
The question i have is: A year later, is Clement still the better pick than Zimmerman?
Zimmerman’s biggest selling point was his polish. He was basically MLB ready last summer. There was very little projection needed. He was able to step right in and contribute immediately.
The problem, of course, is that the M’s had just signed Beltre to a 5 year contract three months prior. Drafting Zimmerman, and then sticking him in the minors as Beltre insurance, is voiding his biggest asset – the fact that he doesn’t need development time. And you’re essentially setting yourself up to have to trade one of the two, and limiting your options down the line.
Zimmerman has a lower ceiling than Clement does, played a position the M’s had already committed significant money to, and as an RHB was a worse fit for the team’s home park. For most clubs, Zimmerman probably would have been a better pick than Clement. The M’s weren’t one of those clubs.
But if not this season, it strikes me as highly likely that Clement would need it some time, and be grateful for it before his career is over – we all hope, many, many years from now.
I don’t know about this. The Braves were very patient with Chipper Jones, and he never really struggled his entire career. Same with Todd Helton – the Rockies let him have 400 at-bats killing the PCL, and he started hitting from the day he got to the majors. These are just two examples, but there are a lot more.
I’m not convinced that failure is a necessary key to success for supremely talented players.
IMO I think Clement was a great pick. It’s a case of the extreme upside of Clement. Not only is he a good bat, but he’s a good LH bat. At the catcher position that is pretty much priceless. He has a few things to work on defensively, but we knew that and he’s improving. The injuries this year may have hurt him more offensively that we know. Not only physically, but the promotion right away when he returned. Even the best get rehab assignments, he didn’t. I think next year will give us a much better idea of what he is capable of. This guy has always been able to hit, there’s no reason to believe he won’t come around. He should start next year in Tacoma and depending on how he does I think there’s a real possibility of seeing him in the show after the break.
#34: Dave – I wasn’t intending to imply that Bavasi is a Gillick-clone regarding veterans and rookies. But I’m pointing at the inability to recognize and capture replacement level talent – a point about Bavasi that has been oft made here.
23. Even if you don’t the MLB.tv feeds live, you get access to the archived game almost immediately after it’s over. Sometimes, for a period of a day, it’s limited to five minutes before cuttting out. If so, just start it up again for another five minutes.
It doesn’t seem to affect the prospects much, though. It just takes some getting used to.
Tell that to everyone who was in love with Ryan Shealy.
The problem, of course, is that the M’s had just signed Beltre to a 5 year contract three months prior. Drafting Zimmerman, and then sticking him in the minors as Beltre insurance, is voiding his biggest asset – the fact that he doesn’t need development time.
But doesn’t that mean the M’s shouldn’t have gone for Alex Gordon if the Royals hadn’t taken him? You said back then that position shouldn’t matter when you’re drafting a hitter.
And is it the same for Troy Tulowitzki, then? Certain people *cough*Joe Sheehan*cough* thought the M’s screwed themselves by not taking Tulowitzki when they had the chance, but he seems destined for the middle infield, and had he followed the same path with the M’s as he has with the Rockies, would be pushing Yuni and Lopez in Peoria.
#34: Dave – I wasn’t intending to imply that Bavasi is a Gillick-clone regarding veterans and rookies. But I’m pointing at the inability to recognize and capture replacement level talent – a point about Bavasi that has been oft made here.
Okay, fair enough.
But doesn’t that mean the M’s shouldn’t have gone for Alex Gordon if the Royals hadn’t taken him? You said back then that position shouldn’t matter when you’re drafting a hitter.
I’m pretty sure I never said that. I’d absolutely have taken Gordon, whose bat could play anywhere in the line-up. A huge chunk of Zimmerman’s value comes from his defense at third base.
Gordon was clearly better than Clement, and still is. But the difference between Clement and Zimmerman wasn’t nearly as pronounced. When you’re trying to split hairs, position and fit in the organization should come into play.
You shouldn’t draft a significantly inferior player due to positional needs, but Clement/Zimmerman were pretty darn close to one another, and using position and handedness to break the tie was very reasonable.
Probably, but would you say his .280/.380/.525 line in Double-A proved he was ready for Tacoma?
In how many at-bats? If a guy hits 350/450/600 in 200 at-bats, that’s enough of a sample size to me to say, “He’s killing the ball, move him along.” At 280/380/525, I’d probably want to see more like 350 before saying that he’s ready.
Of course, I’m pulling those numbers out of my ass. They’re just my first impression without doing a serious study of the issue.
And you’re right, you have to look at the underlying skillsets that drive those numbers. But you have to believe that the numbers have some meaning, particularly when you start talking about BB and K rates.
(I just went and looked at your original post. 290/390/525 in 15 games? Dude, Willie Boom-Boom can do that if he gets lucky. Yeah, he got rushed to Tacoma.)
Dave, a question regarding the flyball figures you’re using…
Looking at Clement’s minorleaguesplits.com page, it looks like you’re calculating IF/F as P/(P+F). I assume that would mean that F = outfield flies alone? I had been under the impression that it included all flyballs, and to get just outfield flyballs, you needed to subtract popups from flies. The Eastern League, for example, has a HR/F of 8.9%, but doing HR/(F-P) then it equals 11.7%, which seems more normal.
What’s really throwing me is that on the players’ game log pages, they only list G, L & F, so I assumed popups were counted in with flyballs. I’ve never seen it explained, so might you know for sure?
I’m pretty sure I never said that.
You’re right. I misinterpreted this comment:
The M’s will pick the top ranked player on their board regardless of position…. If Bob Fontaine says that Alex Gordon is the best player available at the third pick, he’ll be the guy they take, and the Beltre and Sexson on the roster will have little to no impact on the decision.
Well, I didn’t do a very good job explaining myself in that comment.
The M’s did take the top ranked player on their board. Clement’s position and handedness helped make him higher ranked than Zimmerman, though.
In how many at-bats? If a guy hits 350/450/600 in 200 at-bats, that’s enough of a sample size to me to say, “He’s killing the ball, move him along.†At 280/380/525, I’d probably want to see more like 350 before saying that he’s ready.
I’m not really disagreeing. I’m not advocating leaving Clement down in Tacoma if he’s hitting .350/.450/.600. I just don’t think that will happen.
Looking at Clement’s minorleaguesplits.com page, it looks like you’re calculating IF/F as P/(P+F). I assume that would mean that F = outfield flies alone? I had been under the impression that it included all flyballs, and to get just outfield flyballs, you needed to subtract popups from flies. The Eastern League, for example, has a HR/F of 8.9%, but doing HR/(F-P) then it equals 11.7%, which seems more normal.
Actually, I just took the data right from Jeff’s page. If you let the mouse hover on the P line, you’ll see the IF/F popup. I’m not exactly sure how he’s calculating it.
If you let the mouse hover on the P line, you’ll see the IF/F popup.
Whoa, that’s bitchin’. Learn something new everyday.
I thought moving Clement up to Tacoma after his surgery made sense, but only because I thought he wouldn’t be able to squat for a quite a while after he was otherwise able to hit, and — since hitting was his most advanced skill anyway — to keep him progressing they could have him DH in Tacoma while rehabing the knee. Of course Snelling was there DH’ing as well, for some of the same reasons. I assumed he’d move back down when he was ready to resume catching duties. So I wasn’t surprised when he came up, but I was surprised that he didn’t go back down particularly after he had trouble at the plate.
BTW, Ichiro’s catch is on MLB.COM highlights (along with a Yuni catch and Washburn’s Ks — no Snelling, I’m afraid).
The highlights are here.
I guess I do have a notion that it might be good to switch positions with him … if playing catcher is going to stunt Clement as a hitter, and hitting is his main asset, it would be tempting (at least to me) to move him.
That may maximize his value, but it doesn’t necessarily maximize his value to the team. As others have said, a LHB with power is a rare thing at catcher: you can find bats like that at 1B and DH and maybe the corner outfield, but not at catcher. Let’s assume catchers really don’t reach their full potential as a hitters (which sounds questionable to me as a general statement, but OK). If you move Clement — to say, 1B — you have to find somebody else to catch. And that’s going to be a worse hitter — probably significantly worse; meanwhile, you’ve just displaced whoever was at 1B who almost certainly was a better bat than whoever you got as replacement catcher. So Clement at 1B improves his numbers by what, 10%? Great, except you almost certainly could find somebody else to play 1B who is that good too. And meanwhile the guy taking Clement’s place behind the plate is doing more than 10% worse.
So even if moving him would maximize him it doesn’t maximize the team. (This is the economic theory of comparative advantage applied to a lineup). Ideally you don’t want any dead spots in the lineup. Having Clement in the C spot and another big bat at 1B is much better than having a slighly improved Clement at 1B and some weak-hitting C.
ESPN also has Ichiro! but not Doyle.
#54 If Snelling was already DH’ing for the same reasons, why not let him Dh in AA? Then resume catching duties as the knee got better…in AA. Thanks for the Ichiro Highlight tip.
#43/sidroo So if I don’t catch the archived game with in a time alotted portion, it is lost to me? MLB.tv wants me to download it for $3.95. I guess I’ll just have to know it was a game saving play with the bases loaded. The Ichiro catch was nothing short of amazing, but it did seem like he was playing rather shallow, especially in the later innings when you don’t want anything hit over your head.
Tell that to everyone who was in love with Ryan Shealy.
Huh? He made the transition from Tulsa to Colorado Springs just fine, then did OK with the Rockies. I thought his problem was that he was blocked at all positions and wasn’t going to push Helton out of the way, which is why he’s in KC playing 1b.
I’m not talking about the transition problems for the players – I’m talking about the difficulty in evaluating the players statistical performances for analysts.
Shealy took on mythical status the past year because of his performance in Colorado Springs, but he’s just not that good. I was using him as an example of a guy whose inflated numbers made him appear better than he is, and using that as a cautionary note for getting too excited about Iannetta’s numbers.
I’m a Portland Beavers season ticket holder. Last week I saw Kottaras and Clement together. Kottaras is struggling offensively with his recent promotion to AAA as well. Clement looked like the superior prospect to me. He takes control of the field, he looked solid behind the plate and he didn’t looked overmatched by the Beavers pitchers. He’s a big guy too, fully developped. I’d look for a big year from him next year if he stays in AAA.
Is the Drew Henson reference supposed to make me feel better or worse?
I’m rooting for Saltamalacchia for the simple reason that when he finally makes it he will have the longest name in Major League Baseball History. I hope their uniform sewer gets paid by the letter and not by the player.
Dave and associates – any thought of taking a stab at listing the probabilities of various Tacoma players getting a September callup?
Dave and associates – any thought of taking a stab at listing the probabilities of various Tacoma players getting a September callup?
I’ll do a post on this closer to the end of the month, but there’s not going to be any big surprises. Dobbs, Morse, Jones, Fruto, and probably Cruceta. Maybe one other guy.
I agree with #57: after surgery on a knee, I can’t believe how quickly teams put catchers back behind the plate (and it’s not just the M’s, for example the Twins did the same thing with Mauer). Especially when the guy is someone you expect to be really good, why not give him a month or two at DH before having him squat for 150 pitches a game.
Indeed, if Clement’s hitting improves to the higher reaches of Dave’s projections, I think I would use him as a part-time catcher (once his catcher skills were polished). Let him catch half the games and DH half, keep him fresh for the postseason. If, come August, the postseason is looking iffy, then start using him more. Otherwise put the best line-up, with Clement at catcher, out there when you need it (e.g. against the Yankees). But at other times (e.g. against the Royals), put Clement at DH to spare him the dings he’ll pick up catching. Lo Duca and Piazza had reputations of wearing down over the season – why plan your season so that a prime offensive weapon is worn down if you get to the postseason?
(To flesh out this idea I should really look at full-time catchers’ OPS by month over the season and see if they really do wear down – and part-time catchers’ OPS to see if they don’t…)
My question is, when is the optimum time to trade Kenji? Is now or this offseason a time when we could get a starting pitcher for Johjima? What do you think his trade value is now, versus waiting until teams know that we want to ship him in order to make room for Clement?
I don’t think other teams “knowing” Kenji is being pushed out by Clement changes his value all that much. Another team either has a need or a catcher or it doesn’t; Kenji either represents an upgrade (and probably a salary bump) or not. Teams carry two catchers as a matter of course; having two good ones is a luxury few teams ever have, but it doesn’t make the M’s desperate or put them in a worse bargaining position. The only way Clement hurts Kenji’s trade value is if he’s getting so many starts it hurts Kenji’s numbers, but even then teams have a good idea of what they’re getting (in fact, they’d be getting a fairly well-rested catcher in that scenario, assuming a July trade).
Anyway, given Clement’s struggles in AAA, it’s way too early to talk about trading Kenji. We may not see Clement in Seattle until Sept ‘07; Joh is signed through ‘08, so you might talk about ‘08 as the transition year — if Clement does well, and you get a great offer before the trading deadline, you let Joh go then. If Clement suddenly steps it up next year maybe you bring him up in the latter half of ‘07, but even then it would be risky to trade Joh in the winter of ‘07.
My question is, when is the optimum time to trade Kenji? Is now or this offseason a time when we could get a starting pitcher for Johjima? What do you think his trade value is now, versus waiting until teams know that we want to ship him in order to make room for Clement?
This isn’t something we need to be concerned about anytime soon.
BTW, Dave: when you guys do your updates to the future forty or a post talking about September callups, you might want to give the contract sheet page a quick revisit — it’s kind of a nice museum of past Mariners at this point, what with Moyer and Everett and Guardado and Lawton (Lawton? Had already forgotten about him).
Also, tangentially related since we’re talking about minor league guys recovering from injuries and whatnot, the AP reports
I just wish we knew what was going on with Soriano (and hope it turns out to be nothing worse than this).
#55, you’re right in your example, I don’t think it automatically makes sense. if catchers really are at a disadvantage to learning to be hitters, I think it’s worth considering not leaving premier hitters at that position.
What if he moves to first base and hits 25% better than his replacement? Or third and hits 40% better? What if staying at catcher means he’ll never be that special of a hitter? What if the reason that lefty power hitter catchers are rare is because being a catcher wrecks them?
Re Mickey: What if your post is all out-of-your-ear speculation with absolutely no relationship to reality?
Dave,
Thanks.
Shealy took on mythical status the past year because of his performance in Colorado Springs, but he’s just not that good.
Thing is, if you look at Shealy’s Tulsa and CS numbers side-by-side and then account for the altitude and the league jump, it’s pretty clear that his CS numbers are a drop-off. They’re virtually identical to start with.
Tulsa 2004: .318/.411/.584 (.995 OPS)
CS 2005: .328/.393/.601 (.994 OPS)
The question is really more of how much you account for altitude and how much you account for moving up a level.
He’s hitting .293/.350/.402 right now in KC. That’s not good for a 1b, but that’s better than some of the players the Royals have on their 25-man right now.
It might be more consistent statistically for the Rockies to put their AA club in El Paso — if there was still a club there.
#72, this is Bill Jame’s theory, not mine. Or at least it was a long time ago, he may have changed his mind since then. I just thought it was something to think about.
Good stuff on Clement, I’m excited about the kid and hope he gets up here soon.
I was just thinking about this in regards to Clement possibly moving from catcher to DH or 1B, but has any AL team ever gone with two catchers and just had them trade time between DH and catching? I don’t know how long we have Kenji signed through, but if he is still here and Clement shows he can hit in the majors, you could conceivably do that and prevent a lot of the “wearing down” that most catchers seem to go through at the end of the season. Its pretty rare that a team has two quality hitters at catcher, but the Mariners might be in that situation if Clement develops faster than expected.
Oh, and I haven’t been able to watch the games, but that Ichiro highlight was awesome. Seeing him in centerfield gives me goosebumps.
has any AL team ever gone with two catchers and just had them trade time between DH and catching?
I don’t think so. If the starting catcher gets injured and you’re only carrying two catchers, you lose the DH.
Typically, you see what Cleveland is doing — playing Victor Martinez at 1b on days he’s not catching.
We’ve talked about the DH-Catcher spliting time thing here before, and while it’s attractive, I think we ended up mostly down on the idea. For one, the pitcher would have to hit if the starting catcher went down and the DH moved to catcher. Two, for example, Johjima’s bat is very good for a catcher but pretty mediocre for a DH, or at least certainly not great. So, there are disadvantages too.
I think if Clement can hit well enough to be a legitimately good DH and Johjima is still awesome, well, maybe you work something out, carry a legitimate emergency catcher, or just take the risk that your pitcher might have to hit a few times. But to keep both bats in the lineup every day without wearing them out by catching too much, it’s definitely a stretch.
At least, I think that’s what people said when I tried to claim it was a good idea.
I’d love to add a thoughtful note or two here regarding Clement. However, my brain is too overwhelmed with sheer joy about watching Doyle in the bigs. Call it ‘orgasm of the brain’ if you like. But its hard to think of anything else right now.
In ‘05 Mauer got 116 games as catcher and 13 as DH. I know the Twins are doing a bit of that this year (it’s got to be hard not to write him into the lineup even when you know he needs a rest) but I don’t know what the numbers are.
Re #75: the theory is one thing; your second paragraph, however, was out-and-out speculation rooted in no solid data whatsoever.
Okay guys, I’m out for the night – there may or may not be a game thread tonight. If there’s not one up, go ahead and use this thread.
Re 78 – lose the DH? very unlikely, I say.
I would like to see a stat on the frequency with which a catcher got hurt so badly that he had to come out of a game. iT probably would be difficult to isolate the subsitutions due to injury from other causes (pinch runner, whatever), and even when there was an injury there are times when he could have stayed in if absolutely needed. Anyway, I think it would show that the likelihood is so low that you shouldn’t worry as much as managers do.
Furthermore, the case of losing the DH due to catcher injury is nowhere near as critical as having no one to go behind the plate. There are pinchitters around, and even having a pitcher bat instead of Rivera isn’t likely to be a game-changing event.
Since no one but Dave has posted anything in 5 days, I’m thinking we won’t see a dedicated game thread.
83 – I agree with you, its very unlikely that would happen and even if it did your pitcher bats once or twice in one game and thats it. I’m sure there are other reasons not to do it, but that one doesn’t convince me.
And some teams do use their extra catcher as DH a fair amount, and I don’t see a lot of stories about AL pitchers having to hit. Toronto puts Molina and Zaun in the lineup together all the time (especially now that they’ve traded Hillenbrand and Hinske).
The question is really more of how much you account for altitude and how much you account for moving up a level.
The altitude/park factor adjustment is probably fairly extreme. From minorleaguesplits.com:
0.293/0.363/0.443 — Colorado Springs at home
0.254/0.317/0.382 — Colorado Springs on the road
Eyeballing park factors very roughly, I’d say Shealy’s line adjusts to about .260/.325/.525 from 0.283/0.348/0.566.
#81, the post I was responding to was similar speculation. I was just pointing out that his argument was not valid for all situations.
Short Doyle interview just took place on KJR 950. Nothing new and memorable, but good stuff nonetheless.
57, about MLB.tv. Don’t download the game. I don’t know why you’d want to. For as long as you have MLB.tv, you’ll have access to all the archived games played that year.
For about 24 hours after the game, the video feed will cut out after five minutes. This keeps people from seeing the game after getting home from work, but of course lets you pick your higlights, if you know when in the game they happened.
THe five-minute restriction lifts after the 24 hours, give or take up to 12 hours.
BTW, I live in downtown Seattle, and I don’t get blacked out if I log on just before the game begins.
i tink clemnt will be gr8. he just need time to grow in da minors
What an awesome thread so far. I’m trying my best to not become smarter and I am failing miserably. There is hope for even #91……
Wow. Hargrove learned something from yesterday. Beltre still out, so Bloomquist is playing 3rd, but batting 9th, while Doyle is hitting 2nd.
Hargrove didn’t learn much. Righthander going tonight vs. lefty last night.
Manny out, Youkilis out.
#77, 89 Orioles did that with Mickey Tettleton and Chris Hoiles to a
great degree. Not completely, but to a large extent.
..and Dave blessed us with a game thread, so we can stick to Clement-y (Roberto?) issues here…
Well as long as Doyle’s hitting 2nd, I think that’s good. Despite the weird line-up last night, the M’s did quite well with it…
If you wanted to split Johjima and Clement between C and DH then there’s no reason you couldn’t carry a 3rd backup catcher if you were that worried about an injury. Since both catchers are in the lineup each day, it’s not like you’re losing a roster spot carrying a 3rd. Just think of it as having a DH who can occaisionally catch.
That being said, you’d be fine w/o a 3rd catcher.
I’m telling you, Rob Johnson is the future Mariner’s catcher…no doubt about it. I’ve seen both he and Clement play, and Jeff looks like a nervous little boy out there. Dont get me wrong, the boy can hit at times, but pure defense…the award goes to Johnson. His bat WILL develop, his defense is phenomenal.
And I’m telling you — as I’ve told you before — that you’re so obviously and flamingly biased, you have zero credibility.
On Clement, good to hear that his D is coming a long; that’s been a major issue in seeing where he slots into the org’s future. He just doesn’t seem a nimble enough athlete that he’s ever going to excell behind the plate, but he looks like he could be decent, and you say he’s on track for that. No Victor Martinez type who’ll kill the team back there until he’s moved, so good. When I look at his swing and approach, what _I_ see is Troy Glaus from the left side. Maybe a little more contact, but the rest the same. That’s pretty decent at any position, but especially sweet as a LH bat behind the dish.
Re: ‘aggressive development,’ I think Bavasi’s idea could, in principle be sound—but the way he and the org uses it demonstrates such very poor judgment that it’s not an idea or philosophy or method, it’s just a slogan for what they want to do anyway. Travis Blackley, Clint Nageotte, and Matt Thornton were manifestly not ready the first time they were put on the 25-man; their control was terrible in both cases, due to injury for Clint and Travis evidently, and the promotion’s were patently bad ideas. Jose Lopez was coming off an 6-week injury last year and _not_ ready the firt time he was brought up in July. Clement was coming of a 6-week injury this year, and while it may have _seemed_ reasonable to promote him we see the result. Matt Tui was manifestly NOT ready to be pushed up to AA this year. Adam Jones was manifestly not ready for Seattle. In essence, Bill B. and the team have been way wrong far too often for me to trust their judgment in any way at this point. The assessments are faulty, not the players.
really, jose is an example of a guy that didn’t work out? seems to me he worked through the struggle and played pretty good this year. The aggresivness isn’t about immediate success, its about having these guys fail then come be able to come back stronger. Lopez worked out, jones and clement are to early to tell, as they were moved up this year.
Learn commen sense before you bad mouth people that are actually succesful in life.
102, it’s patently obvious you didn’t bother to read the post, or less charitably didn’t comprehend it if you did. Care to try again?
Bela, I agree 102 was a little harsh, but you did sort of skirt the point. If the purpose is to make these players fail, regroup, and be stronger for it in the long run, then I’d say Lopez is a decent example of that strategy succeeding. So far. You make it sound like the point is that Lopez wasn’t ready, while it’s been clearly stated that promotions before hitters are ready is exactly the intention. And Lopez bounced back pretty nicely, it would seem. Right? Clement and Jones may too. Right? In which case, all you can say is that, “yep, they struggled because they were promoted so aggressively.” Which isn’t an argument against Bavasi’s strategy; it’s part of his strategy.
Your whole post, really, has the same problem. You point out situations in which players weren’t ready as if they’re proof that Bavasi’s strategy is stupid, or that he actually has no strategy, that he is just following his whimsy. But if Bavasi’s strategy is to promote hitters while they aren’t ready to help them understand and overcome failure, all your examples say is, “yep, that’s Bavasi’s strategy.” Your post is internally inconsistent and doesn’t take on Bavasi’s strategy on its own terms at all. And you get to claim that your critic there “didn’t comprehend it?” I don’t know…
I’m not defending the strategy; I don’t claim to know how to handle these things. And, in spite of that, the aggressive promotions manage to make me pretty nervous, too. But your examples aren’t examples of Bavasi’s strategy failing, so you can probably lay off the snipe a little.
#100…AND as I have told you- I am not biased one bit…I do believe this is a sight in which one may post their imput with freedom. You sir or madam, are obviously calling yourself “ancient” for a reason …I am not sure whether you have even seen a Rainiers game, much less Johnson and Clement play in person, SO…you may want to do that before you harp on me. “Ancient Mariner”, basing your opinion by simply checking their website does not give you CREDIBILITY.
Oh, of course, you can post anything you want. That is not under question.
And you declaring yourself unbiased is not evidence.
I believe Quiroz is the best catcher in the entire Mariners system.
How can I say this? Because I have seen a baseball game. That gives me CREDIBILITY.
Also, I am UNBIASED.
And my opinion is BETTER than yours. I can see things with my own EYES.
QED.
Catcherwatcher, what is it that you think gives you credibility, outside your own head? Since what you assert is opposed to the opinion of every educated watcher of the Mariner farm system, do you have anything at all to back up your opinion? “No doubt about it” is just air; what argument do you have to offer?
Like others, I also wonder if the promotion to Tacoma was not the correct move. Mostly because it just doesn’t seem to make sense after being out for 6 weeks to get promoted, especially after only 15 AA games.
Anyway, I think the focus (offense wise) should be on Clement’s strong numbers in A and AA. Additionally, don’t forget that he posted pretty good numbers in the AFL last fall and he went 2-9 in spring training with a triple and a HR. And of course you have the numbers from USC and 2 summers with Team USA as well.
He can rake. There’s no doubts there. I think the time in Tacoma has been kind of rough due to the timing of the promotion.