Roundup
Lots of things to cover this morning.
1. Get well, Raffy.
Obviously, we’re all nuts about the Mariners, and we take this team way too seriously. But it doesn’t take much to remind you that this is, after all, just a game, and the line drive off Rafael Soriano’s head brought that perspective back to the light. I don’t care if the M’s go 0 for September, as long as Rafael Soriano is okay and is able to lead a long, healthy, productive life. We’re all pulling for him.
2. Doyle!
Need I say more?
3. The Price of Pitching Just Went Up
Yesterday, on his 29th birthday, Roy Oswalt agreed to a 5 year, $73 million extension. While Roy Oswalt is a legitimately terrific pitcher, a five year commitment to any starting pitcher is borderline folly, and when he’s a year away from becoming a free agent… well, lets just say I see a lot of downside in this move. It also helps set the market for pitching this offseason. If you thought Jason Schmidt had any chance of being a bargain, that just went out the window.
Eventually, teams are going to realize that these kinds of contracts are not good ideas. They’re just not going to realize it this offseason.
4. Game Ball
If you haven’t been following, the Rainiers staff has been decimated lately, between callups and injuries, and they’ve barely been able to field a team. Jason Snyder was called up from rookie ball to start on Monday, and he lasted just four innings before a shoulder problem forced him from the game. Baek and Huber are in the majors, Clint Nageotte is out for the year, and the team’s rotation is a giant question mark.
So, last night’s performance from Rich Dorman was just what the doctor ordered. 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 14 K. He’s 27 and not a real prospect, but for one night, he was Tacoma’s savior.
5. Hello flaws
Remember when Michael Wilson was killing the ball in San Antonio, and I begrudgingly added him to the Future Forty because he just wouldn’t stop hitting?
Yea, that seems like a long time ago. He’s hitting .162/.207/.333 in August with 6 walks and 41 strikeouts (!) in 105 at-bats. I think Double-A pitchers have finally found the holes in his swing.
Jimenez added two strikeouts in the 9th inning in that Tacoma game…16 Bees get sat down via the strikeout…ouch.
Doyle. He’s so hot right now. Doyle.
Rotoworld’s take on Doyle:
Chris Snelling hit a pair of solo homers to help the Mariners beat the Angels 6-4 on Tuesday night.
Ichiro Suzuki and Snelling began the bottom of the first with back-to-back homers off Jered Weaver. Rual Ibanez contributed the third solo shot in the third, and Snelling followed with another in the fourth. Putting Ichiro in center has really upgraded the Seattle offense. It’s just too bad it happened at least a month too late. Snelling will play fairly regularly until he gets hurt again. As much as we’d like to see him last the rest of the season and get a chance to go into 2007 as a regular, it’s a long shot at best.
If Jeremy Reed somehow manages to return this year, now that Ichiro is in CF will Reed become a bench player?
the general chatter on the post-game is that Ichiro! seems to be enjoying his time in center, and has been much more cheerful. The wins can’t hurt, either.
Kurkjian was doing his KJR shtick last night (well, gasman, let me tell you…) opined that the Ms will need a starter & a big bat (‘a Jason Schmidt & a Carlos Lee’ was how he put it) next season — with the pitching needs greater — but that he couldn’t see how they could afford to compete in the pitching stakes against teams like NY, and so would likely be buying in the lower tiers again. This was before the Oswalt numbers came down.
Kurkjian was doing his KJR shtick last night (well, gasman, let me tell you…) opined that the Ms will need a starter & a big bat (’a Jason Schmidt & a Carlos Lee’ was how he put it) next season — with the pitching needs greater — but that he couldn’t see how they could afford to compete in the pitching stakes against teams like NY, and so would likely be buying in the lower tiers again. This was before the Oswalt numbers came down.
And we see the effect of the Washburn signing. I think a team can afford to have one overly large contract if they had to. Two is….not a good idea.
Not sure there are going to be any “bargains” in the free agent market. And the team needs pitching…
“Eventually, teams are going to realize that these kinds of contracts are not good ideas. They’re just not going to realize it this offseason.”
Why do you believe that they will ever learn this lesson? Hampton, Neagle, Park, Brown, etc. Teams should have learned this lesson long ago.
I think that Oswalt’s contract, like most long-term contracts with pitchers, should be understood in a different way.
Implicitly, these contracts are not evidence that a pitcher like Oswalt is worth $14 million per year. They are also not evidence that anyone expects Oswalt to be $14 million valuable for five years. Rather, these contracts might be evidence that pitchers like Oswalt are worth $24 million per year, but that clubs need to spread those payments over five years and that clubs need to hold an option on the player for two years (without creating the impression that they are forcing the player to work for free). After all, a three year contract at $24 million per year, and major league minimum for two more years would just lead to Oswalt bitching or retiring. Gotta give him an incentive to continue.
Convoluted? Absolutely. But, its not uncommon for the stated rationale or explicit structure of a transaction to seem irrational, even though the transaction itself makes sense.
Bottom line, these contracts appear crazier than they are.
If Jeremy Reed somehow manages to return this year, now that Ichiro is in CF will Reed become a bench player?
With the sheer number of left-handed bats the team will have in ’07, I think he’s going to be dealt if he’s healthy. As a left-handed fourth outfielder with a little sock, he’ll have value for most NL teams.
Rejoice! I just added Doyle to my fantasy team!
wait, did I jinx him?
Is there statistical evidence that some players are injury-prone? I always figured that a guy who keeps injuring the same joint is someone you need to be cautious about, but that a guy who gets several different injuries has probably just had bad luck (or is a Butch Hobson, throw-your-body-around type). Have there been studies done on this?
$24M/per year for 3 years for Oswalt isn’t crazy?
Well, and you were saying yesterday that you really wanted the M’s to be the ones to put a beatdown on Jered Weaver; it wasn’t quite as ugly for him as 2IP, 8H, 7R, but in general, Dave, I’d say you got your wish.
$24M/per year for 3 years for Oswalt isn’t crazy?
It’s 5/73, not 3/73.
Is there any chance to be a seller in this market?
If teams really are willing to overpay for starting pitching, maybe it would be a good time to move some guys. Washburn, Pineiro and Meche come to mind of course. We might even get someone to take Mateo (hey, he’s got 9 wins!) if the market is desperate enough. I’m not sure how we’d replace those arms. I’d hate to see the team do another Washburn, but I don’t see a lot of options out there. Even if Moyer comes back for 2007, we’d still need some arms. Maybe Dice and Schmidt are the answer.
Hmm – in the last couple of weeks, Lowe, Mateo, and now Soriano were lost from the ‘pen. That’s alot of bullpen strength gone. Say what you will about Mateo, but his results (not to be confused with his actual ability or potential future performance) have not been that bad in the last few weeks.
I guess O’Flaherty and Huber are the replacements for the first two. As rosters will expand shortly, and with the availability of decent arms in the minors, I guess this is not a big deal. But it seems to me that the no-man’s land from the 5th+ to the 9th just got a lot scarier.
I’m no Jonah Keri, but given the time value of money, you’re not paying $73 million in today’s dollars, but some lesser figure (about $55,000,000 assuming a 10% discount rate. That’s probably a low discount rate, given the historic increase in player’s salaries.)
The salary in year five has a present value of $9,000,000 rather than $14 under that assumption.
Oswalt isn’t particularly old and he is one of the few legitimate aces in baseball (of which there are far fewer than 30).[career era+ of 141, most similar list dominated by Hall-of-very-good guys:Hudson, Mussina, McDowell, Welch]
Is there a 50% chance he’ll be worth $18,000,000 to the Astros in year 5, when salaries will likely be substantially higher across the board? I think the case can be made.
It isn’t the Oswalt, A-Rod, and Clemens (and Mussina!) contracts that tend to bite their teams in the butts. It’s the contracts that pay the Neagles, Hammonds, Parks, etc. as though they’re nearly as valuable as the true superstars.
Why do you believe that they will ever learn this lesson? Hampton, Neagle, Park, Brown, etc. Teams should have learned this lesson long ago.
Baseball is a slow learning operation. That doesn’t mean its a non-learning operation.
Implicitly, these contracts are not evidence that a pitcher like Oswalt is worth $14 million per year. They are also not evidence that anyone expects Oswalt to be $14 million valuable for five years. Rather, these contracts might be evidence that pitchers like Oswalt are worth $24 million per year, but that clubs need to spread those payments over five years and that clubs need to hold an option on the player for two years (without creating the impression that they are forcing the player to work for free). After all, a three year contract at $24 million per year, and major league minimum for two more years would just lead to Oswalt bitching or retiring. Gotta give him an incentive to continue.
Except there’s no way to argue that Roy Oswalt is worth anything close to $24 million per year. Forget the “its what the market will bear” crap for a minute. Thanks to the minor league system and the ability for teams to impose salaries on players during their first three years of major league service, the major league talent market is not a true “free market”, and it shouldn’t be looked at as such.
If a replacement level pitcher, who makes $328,000, has a true talent level 80% of league average (a pretty fair estimate, according to most work done on the issue), and pitcher inconsistency and variable factors leads to a significant spread of potential performances, then there’s no way that any starting pitcher in baseball right now is worth anything close to $24 million.
Let’s say a true talent level for Roy Oswalt is something like 220 IP and 80 runs allowed (3.27 ERA). Due to variables, a reasonable projection for Oswalt could go anywhere from 200 IP/100 R to 240 IP/70 R.
Now, the replacement level pitcher is probably something more like 170/100 true talent level. Again, though, variables make a reason projection anywhere from 130/90 to 200/90. The range of possibilities for a replacement level pitcher are still pretty high.
Really, you’d expect Oswalt to be something like 40-50 runs better than replacement, but your confidence level has to be quite low, especially compared to a similarly talented hitter.
40-50 runs over replacement isn’t worth anything close to $24 million per year. It’s probably worth $12-15 million. And that’s not even factoring in his potential decline.
Yes, yes, I know. Hall of very good guys aren’t quite true superstars. Badly worded. They are a leap above the value of Parks et al (at the time).
[[Hudson and Mussina also still have active HOF cases building fairly successfully. So what the heck was I talking about?]]
There also doesn’t need to be a 50% chance of $18 million in value, The weighted average of his probabilities just needs to exceed $9 million in year 5 (and $10 million or so in year 4, and $11.5 million or so in year 3, whatever the PV numbers come to.)
I’m not at all convinced the Astros overpaid.
I kinda agree with bookbook here. It wasn’t A-Rod’s contract that killed the Rangers — it was Ho’s. Paying elite money to elite players (and I believe Oswalt is one) isn’t the problem. It’s paying darn-near-elite money to the the Washburns of the worlds that are. I suspect it’s more of an issue with starting pitching than with offense and relief pitching, but yeah, it would be really nice to be a mediocre-to-slightly-above-average starting pitcher. That’s where the money is…
But, yeah, the main problem here is the 5 years. Not, per se, the dollar amount. It’s the length COMBINED with the dollar amount. Paying a 34-year-old Oswalt ~$15+ million could become an issue.
FWIW, “His new deal, which has a no-trade clause and an option for a sixth year, will pay Oswalt $13 million in each of the first two years and $14 million in 2009. He will get $15 million in 2010 and $16 million in 2011. The contract includes a $2 million buyout for 2012. Oswalt could opt out of that year and take a smaller payment.”
If Clemens is worth anything close to $20 million on a one-year deal in 2006, a 34-year-old Oswalt is a reasonably good bet to be worth $14 million in 2011 as MLB salaries continue to increase at 8-9% per year in the meantime.
I understand the argument that 5 years is too long to predict and that, like Gillick, we shouldn’t sign any players who command such a commitment. But I think the dollars are defensible in this case for those willing to do 5-year contracts.
If a replacement level pitcher, who makes $328,000, has a true talent level 80% of league average (a pretty fair estimate, according to most work done on the issue), and pitcher inconsistency and variable factors leads to a significant spread of potential performances, then there’s no way that any starting pitcher in baseball right now is worth anything close to $24 million.
But isn’t that part of the problem? Players make near league minimum from debut to the first year they’re arbitration eligible. In many cases that means teams are underpaying players, so players feel even more obliged to “get what’s coming to them” when they get free agency.
Oswalt was one of the ten most valuable pitchers in the NL his first four years in the league while making near league minimum; Houston then spent big on buying out his arb years ($11M this year). So, in that perspective, $13M in 2007 isn’t that much more for Houston, but it does offset the millions that Oswalt could have been making in a truly open talent market.
As for the $16M in year five, if they were to correctly scale his pay to his expected performance, that would mean he’d get the $16M in 2007 and $13M in 2011. But the problem with that is that no one wants to make less from one year to another.
Is Houston overpaying? Probably, but they’re already overpaying to begin with, and it seems that the relationship between talent and salary with pitchers isn’t linear but exponential as you move closer to the top of the talent range.
The fine print weakens my case for the “$14 million” perse, but also lowers the Present value, because the payouts are pushed further into the future.
I’d also be curious what, if any, insurance they were able to acquire to cover part of their risk.
I was under the impression that you can’t get insurance on contracts longer than 3 years.
Forget the money and the contracts (at least for me today). All of my thoughts and prayers are with Soriano for a quick, full recovery.
That was one of the more frightening things I have ever seen in baseball. Especially considering who’s bat the liner came off of.
If he fully recovers physically, I just hope he can recover mentally as well.
Or pre-existing conditions, and Oswalt’s got a not-pretty track record, injury wise. His back, oblique, and elbow have all been probelms at various times.
Oswalt’s a good pitcher, but he’s pretty similar to Tim Hudson in both stature and repertoire, and I’m pretty sure the A’s are thrilled they didn’t lock up Huddy to a long term deal.
Pitcher attrition rate is huge. Giving long term deals to pitchers is a great way to lose a lot of money.
Speaking of long term contracts…. when should the Mariners offer Felix a long term contract? And what kind of contract do you give him? Is there any sense in signing him early before his value sky rockets?
25 – Here is an article from the Boston Globe that explains a bit about contract insurance and the huge insurance premiums associated with them.
Contract Insurance
Is Houston overpaying? Probably, but they’re already overpaying to begin with, and it seems that the relationship between talent and salary with pitchers isn’t linear but exponential as you move closer to the top of the talent range.
Overpaying for one year is not a problem. Overpaying for five years is.
And pitchers are so volatile, trying to determine where a pitcher will land in the talent pyramid several years down the line is a fools’ errand.
For instance, here’s the top 25 pitchers by DIPS ERA for 2001:
Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, Andy Pettitte, Matt Morris, Javier Vazquez, Terry Adams, John Burkett, Roger Clemens, Mark Mulder, Brad Penny, Randy Wolf, Kerry Wood, Freddy Garcia, Barry Zito, Al Leiter, Tim Hudson, Russ Ortiz, Darryl Kile, Glendon Rusch, Brad Radke, Jon Lieber, Kevin Tapani, and Tim Wakefield.
How many of those pitchers are $15 million per year pitchers this year, or even last year?
Clemens, Mussina, and Schilling.
How many of thsoe pitchers are $10 million per year pitchers this year or last year?
Andy Pettitte, Brad Penny, and Barry Zito.
That’s it. These guys were the cream of the crop 5 years ago, and the only guys still going strong are three hall of famers, with three of the other 22 breaking out of the pack and pitching well.
Signing a pitcher to a 5 year contract is like going to for an inside straight draw. The EV of hitting is what sticks in everyones minds, but the failure rate is huge.
Locking up Felix beyond his arbitration years makes sense, but doing it before his arbitration years only makes sense if he does something so incredible that it breaks the arbitration system (like wins a Cy Young).
Hmm.
The Mariners probably have the best offense in their division, assuming Doyle stays healthy- there isn’t a bad bat in the lineup (if Sexson is really back and we get Good Beltre).
With that in mind, and given that Washburn’s a fixture and King Felix is due to assume his throne Any Day Now, I think my goals would be to write a very large check for Daisuke Matsuzaka’s posting rights, and come to an agreement… and not sign anyone else to more than a 1-2 year deal.
The other possibility is that if you want to let Reed and Jones duke it out for a job in spring, it makes Sexson or the Benuardo platoon surplus (with Ibañez sliding to DH in this scenario), so there’s potential there.
But yeah, the FA market for pitching? Ouch. Seems to me we need to zag instead of zig here.
Speaking of long term contracts…. when should the Mariners offer Felix a long term contract? And what kind of contract do you give him? Is there any sense in signing him early before his value sky rockets?
I’d go year to year with him for at least the next three years.
He’s got iffy mechanics, and the attrition rate of young pitchers who pitch significant workloads in the majors cannot be ignored.
He’s not in good shape, and conditioning has never been his strong suit.
He’s 20 – giving a kid that age that much money is not a good way to motivate him to improve.
Go year to year, treat him fairly at the end of each year (ie – don’t go to arbitration), and consider offering him a multiyear deal in about 2009 or so.
I agree, my thoughts and prayers are with Raffy. He’s been one of the bright spots this year. Also, Doyle continues to impress. His swing is looking great right now. I really had to restrain myself durring the game thread last night. I personally am looking forward to watching him for a long time.
Now, for Roy. I love this guy. I think he’s a great pitcher and a great competitor. The 73m number seemed a little high, but the Astro’s just secured one of the best pitchers in the game for the next 5 or 6 years. The number does seem like it might take into account his first couple of years with the Astros and the change he was making then. Maybe I’m giving their organization too much credit.
This is the top-of-the-rotation kind of guy we need. I would have signed this guy for 5yr in a heartbeat. Richie’s making 13m this year, Adrian too, why the heck wouldn’t an ace be worth that to us.
So the Astros now have $14M/year tied up in Oswalt; they get ~1/2 year from Clemens for $22M (assuming the Roger courtship gets consumated again next year for the same amount). They have to do something about Petit, who’s making ~$17M a year right now (3 year/$31M but it was backloaded) and as a free agent will be expecting a raise even if he comes back with a home-team discount. Lidge’s $4M contract is done and he’s probably not coming back, so they’re filling holes in their bullpen too. That’s closing in on $60M a year just for pitching, even assuming you have couple of league-minimum or low-arbitration guys filling out the rotation and pen.
The scary thing is that the Astros are actually a pretty good comparison to the M’s:
…………Astros…..Mariners
Value……$416……$428
Payroll……$93………$88
(Value from the Forbes 2006 numbers, 2006 opening day payroll from USAToday/Cot’s etc, all in Millions of course). Clearly the Astros are going to be taking a big step up in the payroll numbers next year — and this is a team that’s in 3rd place (6 games) in their division (and while only 3 games out of the wildcard, in the crazy NL that means they’re five teams back).
Which suggests that’s what it’s going to take for a team who seriously wants to compete (the numbers for the Angels, btw, are $368 and $104 respectively — and they have better prospects in their system). This offseason is going to be ugly. Can the M’s find $50-$60M to for pitching, considering what they have tied up in Ichiro, Beltre, Sexson…?
The 5 yr contract does seem a bit long. I could see a 3yr contract with maybe options for years 4 and 5.
Dave – Now that this contract has been signed and has put a bit of a damper on the pitching free agent market this year what do you see the M’s doing?
Say they were to attempt to sign Schmidt? How far do you think they should go and for how much?
Does this also put more pressure in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes?
Two words: Carl Pavano.
Re. #10
Of course there are players who are injury prone. If you get one, you should trade them away as soon as they give the illusion of being healthy for awhile, like the M’s did with Carlos Guillen.
Ahem. That was ‘smart’.
I’m with you. I think ‘injury prone’ is not such an issue with position players. Certainly there are players who play recklessly in the field and get more than their share of injuries (and I think some of Snelling’s problems stem from this), but if they are as good a Snelling a team should keep them.
Think George Brett. Or Carlos Guillen. Even if they are injured a bit more than average, if they’re healthy when the playoffs come their team has a huge advantage.
Dave – Now that this contract has been signed and has put a bit of a damper on the pitching free agent market this year what do you see the M’s doing?
Bill Bavasi has no problems overpaying. It’s his M.O. If they decide they want a free agent pitcher, they’ll pay through the nose for him.
Say they were to attempt to sign Schmidt? How far do you think they should go and for how much?
I’d like Schmidt at something like 3/27, but that’s obviously a pipe dream. He’ll probably command 4/48, maybe 5/60. And there’s no way I’m going near that.
Does this also put more pressure in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes?
Yep. If he becomes available, the M’s pretty much need to win the bidding.
Two words: Carl Pavano.
Two more words: That’s silly.
I’m not even sure what you mean there, Palo Alto Dave. Pavano is nothing like Oswalt. Nothing. I think USSM Dave’s Hudson comp has some merit, but Oswalt has always been a gamer and been able to gut it through some injuries while still being very effective. Hudson was never able to do that. This signing strikes me as the Mussina contract all over again, where the Astros paid a premium for a really good but not amazing pitcher who has been very durable for most of his career. Honestly, I think it’s a fair deal. Would I rather have Oswalt at 13 per year or Washburn at 10 per? Easy answer there.
Upper echelon pitchers like Oswalt are going to get this kind of money in almost any market. The real trick (as someone mentioned above) is staying away from those middling pitchers who appear great by some metrics (i.e. Washburn and his tricksy ERA from ’05). Good lord we’re gonna hate having Wash on our team for the next three years
ESPN is reporting that Soriano is in stable condition in the ICU.
Still haven’t heard anything about the Catscan results.
God, I hope he’s ok.
40 — Carl Pavano signed for 4 years/39. Reports suggested that the M’s were thinking in similar terms. Pavano has provided no value to the Yankees, perhaps never will. Oswalt is a far better pitcher, but the Pavano contract demonstrates the huge risk of long bloated pitcher contracts. The Yankees can shrug off the money doled out to Pavano for the next few years, but other teams faced with equivalent nonperformance would likely find themselves with a structural financial disadvantage going forward.
Bill Bavasi has no problems overpaying. It’s his M.O. If they decide they want a free agent pitcher, they’ll pay through the nose for him.
See, this is one thing I actually like about Bavasi. I do this in fantasy baseball, especially when I find a guy I like and know is going to perform exceptionally. The problem, though, is that Bavasi seems to not have much skill in finding the talent to pay through the nose for, and that’s a problem. Bavasi’s skills give us a GM who can go out and talk almost anyone into coming to Seattle, and I dig that ability. I just wish he had a better surrounding cast in which to advise him towards the players he should get. Washburn… ick.
Dave in Palo Alto:
You’re being ludicrous. There is no comparison between Pavano and Oswalt other than the fact that they’re both pitchers. And that’s it. Any other conclusions you’re drawing are just ignorance. If you honestly believe Oswalt compares to Pavano in any way, you’re just not looking at the facts.
Baseball is a slow learning operation. That doesn’t mean its a non-learning operation.
No kidding, Hampton got $100+, Pavano only got $40m, so they are learning. (Granted Hammer was a actually decent pitcher for more than one full season…)
Thanks Dave. Honestly I can’t wait till this offseason. Bavasi and company will have to get a little creative to get things done. Can he do it? I guess we will know in 4 months.
By the way, is it as friggin humid down there in NC as it is up here in SE Virginia today?
Yep. Massive thunderstorm rolling in this afternoon should cool things off, hopefully.
I liked that link to the insurance policy information on Boston Globe site, although it’s 2+ years old. I didn’t know about this angle:
Some big league teams, in addition to insuring individual players, also may buy something called stop-loss policy, in which they buy coverage against the payroll if a certain number of players are disabled in the course of a season.
From the looks of the Red Sox health right now, I hope they have have this insurance.
well, heck, what more does Roy need? They already gave him a dozer…
Well, heck, that’s the solution. Dozers for everyone!
#49:
Is it wrong to love middle America because of this type of story?
Where else can owning a tractor make you the envy of your town?
Hickey leads off his notes column with more inanities about catcher ERA, but further down quotes Hargrove on batting Doyle second, and also on potential shuffling in the bullpen to cover Mateo’s loss- no word on what happens now with Sori out as well.
#50-51— what cracked me up at the time was that they had to alter his existing contract to do it:
“The Astros had to rework Oswalt’s contract to include this expensive gift. So before the presentation, Oswalt had to sign off on something along the lines of “gargantuan mustard yellow farm equipment” added to the language of his $16.9 million contract. “He had to sign an addendum to his contract that said we can give him a bulldozer,” general manager Tim Purpura said. “This is the first time a player has ever had a bulldozer clause entered into his contract.”
and a brief update on KOMO:
“Seattle Mariners reliever Rafael Soriano remained in stable condition in an intensive care unit Wednesday morning after being hit in the head by a line drive Tuesday night. Team physician Dr. Edward Khalfayan visited Soriano on Wednesday at Harborview Medical Center and said the pitcher was improving. Soriano had a second CAT scan that showed no worsening of his condition, Khalfayan said. Soriano was to be examined by a neurosurgeon later Wednesday, at which point the team hoped to get a better idea of how long Soriano will be hospitalized. “
51 – You’d be a pretty big hit in Vermont too. You wouldn’t be quite as popular as the guy with the jacked up 4×4 with huge wheels, but you’d be pretty close. And the ladies love that kind of stuff there too.
“Where else can owning a tractor make you the envy of your town?”
Rural India? The caucuses? Probably a few places, but not places your ever likely to find a major league millionaire.
[off topic]
[off topic]
[off topic, sorry]
Sorry guys, but I don’t really want this thread turning into a discussion on the socioeconomic status of the state.
Get well, Raffy. Take care of yourself.
So according to the Astros, Roy Oswalt is worth a 5-year, $73M deal for his age 29-33 seasons. Johan Santana is a free agent after the 2008 season. 2009 will be his age 30 season. What do you suppose the Astros (or whoever the highest bidder happens to be) would think is a reasonable deal for a 30-year old Santana?
Dave any insights as to who will be called up to replace Rafael?
Dave,
What would you think about something like 3 years for 36-40 million for Schmidt? With a 4th year team option that automatically vests based on IP? It’s over paying but is it worth it?
Mat, that’s almost painful to think about. (If you’re a fan, anyway.) However, if Johan ever actually makes it to free agency, I’ll fall out of my chair in shock; whoever the Twins trade him to will sign him to a long-term deal, and that will be that. (Unless the Twins ever decide to catch up to the current economy, in which case they’ll do the same themselves.)
Dave any insights as to who will be called up to replace Rafael?
Fruto makes the most sense.
What would you think about something like 3 years for 36-40 million for Schmidt? With a 4th year team option that automatically vests based on IP? It’s over paying but is it worth it?
No thanks.
What would you think about something like 3 years for 36-40 million for Schmidt? With a 4th year team option that automatically vests based on IP? It’s over paying but is it worth it?
No thanks.
Ergo, the Ms will be willing to shell that out.
*sigh*
This may be a disappointing offseason.
Unless the Twins ever decide to catch up to the current economy, in which case they’ll do the same themselves.
I guess it’s possible that the Twins could decide to do this, as they figure to start pulling in extra revenue in their new park in 2010. But you’re right, it’s probably most likely Santana gets an extension with whoever has him at the time. Of course, if the Twins are in a playoff race in ’08, I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility that they would just let him walk and get the picks in return if he’s out of their price range, like the A’s have done with Tejada and Giambi.
Anybody here ever have to sign and recruit an employee? Was the amount you paid actually more than you wanted to pay? Was the overage because of incomplete information, the market, other?
http://www.maurybrown.com/?p=333 – looks like they’re taking away the draft pick compensation
No, it looks like there are more rumors that they may take away draft pick compensation.
Considering these rumors have been around for years, let’s wait for official confirmation.
Gee, I know political parties like to run roughshod over each other, but I never thought they’d stoop to bulldozers!
. . . oh, you meant the Caucasus.
Jim Caple notices that the Reds & Brewers have cheerleaders (ack) and takes it that Caple-ish step further….
#72:
Here in Canada they have a Mace, not a bulldozer. I think they have one In England too.
In order to make this post valid… #68: Are picks seriously that valuable in the MLB? It’s not like we’re talking about the NFL or the NBA even. Baseball seems to have the most busts out of any sport except for maybe the NHL (anybody remember when the LA Kings picked Tom Glavine in the ’84 draft?).
No, it looks like there are more rumors that they may take away draft pick compensation.
This time around it’s got legs.
#44 — I may be ludicrous and ignorant (and thanks for the tip!), but for your part, I wish you would acknowledge the point I was trying to make. I never contended that Oswalt and Pavano were peers, I was only pointing out an example of the unintended, and disastrous, effects of entering into long and expensive contracts with pitchers.
Caple does a good job of channeling Niehaus there . . .
There’s no new CBA in place. Until the owners and MLBPA agree to it, I wouldn’t believe a word of it.
I heard rumors in ’02 that the new CBA would allow Selig to contract the two teams by 2004. Of course, it’s not in there.
Another post in the Maury Brown blog talks about the new Mets ballpark — with renderings.
It seems odd that after years of complaining about the “cookie cutter” multipurpose stadiums that looked so much alike (Riverfront, Three Rivers, Busch, The Vet, Shea) that now we have an entire series of “retro” parks that look alike. New Shea looks a lot like Citizens Bank and New Busch, and it even resembles Petco a bit.
If this is supposed to be New Ebbets, why not build the park right up to the street — and put a 30 foot wall in RF?
Raffy update: He had a second CAT scan which showed no worsening of his condition. He’s still stable, and still under observation in intensive care. Good news…
another Sori update:
“Seattle Mariners pitcher Rafael Soriano was examined earlier Wednesday by a neurosurgeon Dr. Rich Ellenbogen at Harborview Medical Center, according to team physician Dr. Edward Khalfayan.
Soriano continues to improve after suffering a concussion when he was hit behind the right ear by a line drive Tuesday at Safeco Field.
Soriano will be given some physical therapy tests Wednesday afternoon to check his balance and ability to walk. If the results are positive, there’s a chance that he could be released from the hospital as soon as Wednesday. Soriano will continue to be treated for a concussion and will be re-examined by the neurosurgeon in approximately two weeks.”
P.S. Forgot to mention that my info came from the P-I website…
re: 76
Again, there’s no need for me to acknowledge your point because your point is faulty. Just because an severely injury prone pitcher like Pavano was signed to a bad contract (which most statistically inclined persons were saying was a mistake from the get-go) doesn’t mean that all contracts are bad idea. You’re essentially saying it would be a bad idea to sign a guy like Roy Halladay to a longterm deal just because Jaret Wright broke down during his contract. It’s bad logic, man. Plain and simple.
There are educated risks (Oswalt), and then there are ridiculous risks (Pavano). It’s up to the savvy GM’s to figure out which pitchers fall into each category. The other dopes are the ones who go out and sign the Pavano’s of the world. There’s a huge difference between signing a pitcher who has a good track record in both performance and health and having him break down versus signing a guy who has almost zero history of good health and mediocre track records statistically. Huge.
[roster construction]
16. It isn’t the Oswalt, A-Rod, and Clemens (and Mussina!) contracts that tend to bite their teams in the butts.
and
#20. But yeah, the main problem here is the 5 years. Not, per se, the dollar amount. It’s the length COMBINED with the dollar amount. Paying a $34 year old Oswalt ~$15 million could become an issue.
I want to indulge in a bit of silliness about one of the contracts mentioned.
I don’t agree with #16. I don’t see Clemens’ current contract status as a problem, because the Astros have only re-signed him one year (or less!) at a time the past couple of years.
Park’s Ranger contract was an albatross, but you can hardly say A-Rod’s TEN YEAR contract wasn’t just as problematic, when he decided he wanted out and they wanted to get rid of him in 2003.
According to The Hardball Times, if A-Rod was a free agent who’d been signed for $21,680,727 this year (his total salary according to USA Today), he’s being overpaid by about $8 million: currently his Net Win Share Value is $ 13,612,616 as a free agent (which he’s not, of course, thanks to that 10 year contract).
No wonder he’s in a blue funk. Deep down he probably realizes how good he had it in Texas…
Dang it, I didn’t know I couldn’t post roster construction.
I thought mine was really good.
Now you know.
About the Oswalt deal…
The Baseball Prospectus dudes wrote an article in Baseball Between the Numbers that analyzed the marginal economic value of wins to professional baseball teams. They concluded that the value of a win varies widely depending on where in the spectrum it lies — a team’s 65th win is worth maybe 650k in total revenue, and likewise, a teams 110th win is worth just about as much. But wins in the 82-95 range, due to their impact on making the playoffs (cha-ching) as well as making the team interesting and relevant (hel-lo $200 team jerseys), are huge. Almost $5 Million in team income per win.
So in that vein, if the Astros saw themselves as a ~.500 team for the next few years without Oswalt and believed that he’d win them an extra 5-6 games per year, the Oswalt deal kind of… umm… makes sense.
Assuming a VORP of 55 (equaling +5.5 wins/year), he’d earn over $25 Million a year for his team.
I’m not saying that there aren’t better avenues, like for example spending the money on developing talent, but there’s definitely profit potential in giving a guy like Roy that much money. I’m not surprised it happened, and I highly doubt it’ll ever stop. The potential for such an easy payoff is just too tempting.
Um…let’s talk about contracts instead…it’s much more fun.
Re #83: Bodhizefa, part of the problem (as Dave has pointed out) is that Oswalt isn’t all that great a health risk. We aren’t talking Clemens or Ryan here.
RE: #73
Cheerleaders for baseball. What a great idea for the Mariners. Fox Sports Northwest can then broadcast Mariner cheerleader tryouts every night. Rick Rizzs will have to wipe the drool off his face.
74 – You mean Tom Glavine missed a chance to play with Wayne Gretzky?
I bet he’s kicking himself now.
It all comes down to us. We pay the higher ticket prices, the clubs are gonna spend (usually) more money on players. These guys live in a different world… I mean…I can’t even fathom 1 million and we’re talking 14 in a year. I mean, I can’t even discuss it. It’s ridiculous.
Cheerleaders in baseball… wow. Stop the presses… now there’s a new low in baseball.
mln – who wipes the droll of Rick Rizzs nowadays?
colm – I believe that is Hendu’s job, or maybe Dave Valle on weekends.
Slate actually had an article about evil history of baseball ‘dancers’ last year…
94 – It has to be Willie Bloomquist. After all, he can do everything!
Wins past 110 are worth more than you think. Look at Seattle, they’ll keep people hanging on for years after the fact.
You mean Tom Glavine missed a chance to play with Wayne Gretzky?
Well, that’s a difficult question to answer. Gretzky didn’t get traded to the Kings until the 88-89 season. Glavine would have, in all likelihood due to his age and apparent skill (round 4 of the draft), spent about four or five years the junior system/Kings’ farm system before getting the callup. Now, if he would have ever gotten a callup at all is another question altogether.
Anyway, that gives him an arrival year of 1989, perfect timing to catch on with the Great one and the fantastic ride on which he took the city, league and sport. However, Glavine would have been at best a 4th line forward if not a career AHLer.
Now, to bring this back to baseball. Why can’t Niehaus do a full game? Does he drink heavily?
Why can’t Niehaus do a full game? Does he drink heavily?
In the immortal words of Keith Olbermann, long ago on Sportscenter when talking about the ages of players:
HE’S TWO HUNDRED AND SIX.
Niehaus is wandering towards Harry Caray territory at this point, but he’s not quite there yet so it’s not as much entertaining/fun as cringeworthy right now.
99 – I think Dave does 1/2 on radio and 1/2 on TV. Usually the 5th is where they switch with Ron F. doing play-by-play on the radio. I think it is done to keep people’s heads from exploding from having to deal with Rizz for 9 innings in a row.
101 – yep, Dave does the first 4 1/2 innings of the game on TV, then switches to radio after taking the bottom of the fifth off. It’s all about getting him on both TV and radio broadcasts, given his local popularity.
He’s way better on radio, in my opinion. That may be because I don’t have to see how wrong he is when making calls. But he’s just so much more enjoyable when he’s having to describe everything.
#88
You know, I hadn’t thought about that before, but I suppose that part of that 73m goes toward the right to sell Oswalt jerseys for the next five years, and to continue to sell seats on his start days even if the Astros are a joke (funnier than now). Even if he gets injured and doesn’t quite recover, or simply succumbs to attrition they will still sell tickets to his starts because he’s been around and the locals like him. During the first half of the season, I saw a lot of new Johnson jerseys around NYC, and his starts were still exciting for the local fans (until they started) even though he was throwing more ‘Mr Snappies’ than sliders. Not that Johnson’s been around New York for a long time… In any case, the contract makes a lot more sense to me now.
104, OTOH, I think there is a mental downer for the fans when they see their team paying an eight-figure salary to a guy who’s contributing little or nothing. See Cirillo, Jeff.
It also tends to make managemnet try desparately to squeeze blood out of a turnip, See Jarvis, Kevin.
Nice line about Rizzs Jed C., but my head usually explodes from about 1/2 an inning of his play-by-play…….
Speaking of pitchers available in the offseason, what are the M’s chances of signing Daisuke Matsuzaka? It looks like he will probably be posted. The Yankees, Mariners, and Angels are considered the most interested.
Mariners reliever Rafael Soriano, who was struck by a line drive in the eighth inning of Tuesday’s game vs. the Angels, has been released from Harborview Medical Center, the club announced on Wednesday.
Soriano was kept in the hospital overnight for observation and a pair of CT scans, among other tests.
Mariners team physician Dr. Edward Khalfayan reported prior to Wednesday’s game that both “CT scans looked good, and we are not concerned at this time that he has a brain injury other than a concussion. … We expect him to recover from this injury with no long-term residual effects.”
Soriano will be monitored by the Mariners medical staff over the next 10-14 days and will be rechecked by a neurosurgeon in approximately two weeks.
it’s not as much entertaining/fun as cringeworthy right now.
I find it incredibly fun actually.
My favourite is when Dave has to read the Pepsi promo.
At least his voice isn’t completely shot at this point. Some of the older announcers have gone on a bit too long, though I can’t blame them. Jack Buck, great as he was, was not easy to listen to for his last five years or so.
+For instance, here’s the top 25 pitchers by DIPS ERA for 2001:
Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, Andy Pettitte, Matt Morris, Javier Vazquez, Terry Adams, John Burkett, Roger Clemens, Mark Mulder, Brad Penny, Randy Wolf, Kerry Wood, Freddy Garcia, Barry Zito, Al Leiter, Tim Hudson, Russ Ortiz, Darryl Kile, Glendon Rusch, Brad Radke, Jon Lieber, Kevin Tapani, and Tim Wakefield.
How many of those pitchers are $15 million per year pitchers this year, or even last year?
Clemens, Mussina, and Schilling.
How many of thsoe pitchers are $10 million per year pitchers this year or last year?
Andy Pettitte, Brad Penny, and Barry Zito.+
Of the 25 names above, how many had anything remotely as strong as Oswalt’s track record?
10? Probably not that many.
Of those fewer than 10, how many were likely to be in their prime performance years for a 5 year contract? A few?
Now, of course, the three who performed the best are all older than the “prime years” Oswalt has just been signed for.
The failures of Freddy Garcia, Tim Hudson, and Mulder are all very strong data points for your argument that 5/$73 to Oswalt is foolhardy. (all three have accumulated substantial value over the past five years, if nowhere close to $73 million. They haven’t been total losses.)
The retirements of Kevin Tapani and Leiter, and the troubles of Adams, Burkett, etc. don’t strike me as terribly relevant.
(Darryl Kile was a fluke situation that, I assume, didn’t create an outstanding contract obligation.)