Future Forty 2.5
The Future Forty has been updated for September, and with it comes a minor yet significant change. At the suggestion of one our commenters during last month’s thread, the “Stock” column, which never really filled any useful role, has been replaced by a “Present” column, which shows how valuable that player could be expected to be in the major leagues today.
The goal of the Present column is to show just how close to contributing to the Mariners a player on the farm is, and perhaps help answer some of the questions for why players with high reward rankings aren’t yet considered projected regulars. As you’ll note looking through the list, the Mariners have a significant amount of talented players in the lower levels, but they’re almost all extremely raw, and each are going to need a lot of development before they can contribute to the big league team. Adding in a Present Value column will hopefully help give an idea for where a player is on the development path.
Please keep age in mind when looking at the Present Value column. Jose Lopez is tagged with a current value of 6, but for a 22-year-old, that’s pretty darn good. Despite the fact that he hasn’t hit a home run in about four years, Lopez shouldn’t be viewed as any kind of disappointment. He’s going through the normal growing pains of a young player adjusting to the major leagues.
Beyond the new column, we also welcome three new players at the expense of three well known names. Clint Nageotte, Jesse Foppert, and Scott Atchison bid adieu, and their removal from the Future Forty could be followed by a removal from the organization this winter. Replacing the three pitchers are first baseman Bryan LaHair, who we’ve talked about, and long term projects Alex Liddi and Gerardo Avila.
Liddi and Avila, along with current Future Forty members Carlos Peguero, Greg Halman, and Kuo-Hui Lo represent the next wave of young hitting talent the Mariners have in the lower levels of the organization. All these guys are just kids, many years from Seattle, but all have shown flashes of major league talent. If you’re looking for a lower level hitter to get excited about, you should probably pick one of these five.
However, these guys all have something else in common – they were pushed to levels they weren’t ready to handle, and full season ball pitchers exposed serious flaws in their hitting approach. Take a look at this little chart:
Halman (Everett): 116 AB, 3 BB, 32 K
Peguero (Everett): 93 AB, 2 BB, 34 K
Avila (Wisconsin): 88 AB, 1 BB, 22 K
Liddi (Wisconsin): 38 AB, 1 BB, 8 K
That’s 339 at-bats with a combined 7 walks and 96 strikeouts. Holy Reggie Abercrombie.
Now, it’s pretty easy to dismiss these numbers, since these kids are all very young. Avila is 20, Peguero is 19, Halman just turned 19, and Liddi just turned 18. These were aggressive promotions (shockingly) for kids who had not spent more than a few months playing baseball stateside, and while the results weren’t what you would hope for, it was also fairly predictable.
As we’ve discussed before, Bill Bavasi has instituted a very aggressive approach to pushing minor leaguers through the system, causing them to fail before they reach the major league level. It works in some instances, as the players respond to the hardships and become better for it, but it also runs the risk of slowing a player’s development by creating bad habits, especially in approach at the plate.
The Mariners currently have a line-up full of hitters who attack the ball and don’t wait for their pitch, and with their aggressive promotions, they’re breeding another group of swing-at-anything-hackers. At some point, the Mariners are going to have to admit that a disciplined approach at the plate has tangible value and start taking steps to instill that into their young players. Right now, the organization stresses aggressiveness at the plate, believing that patience will come as a player gains experience, but the team needs to be proactive in helping their players develop an approach at the plate that will lead to successful hitting.
As talented as Peguero, Halman, Liddi, and Avila might be, they’re not going to become major leauge players without a serious improvement in the way they approach hitting. As we saw with Wladimir Balentien this year, that can be much easier to say than to do. If the organization is not willing to help these kids learn how to identify when to swing and when to keep the bat on their shoulder when these kids are teenagers, they’re going to regenerate the offense we see now at the major league level, and that’s not in the best interests of the players or the team.
Somehow, someway, the Mariners are going to have to change their instructional techniques. They can’t keep relying on pure athletic talent to develop major league hitters. These kids need help, and they aren’t getting the instruction they need from the coaching staff.
If the organization is not willing to help these kids learn how to identify when to swing and when to keep the bat on their shoulder when these kids are teenagers, they’re going to regenerate the offense we see now at the major league level, and that’s not in the best interests of the players or the team.
Regenerate? Huh? Are they going to turn the offense into Borg or into Southern Baptists?
Does Reed really still merit a 7 reward — the same as Snelling and Tui? It seems like he’s slipping to 4-5 of late.
I’ll ask the same question I asked last year, too: Is there one “spare part†on the Forty that you would dangle out there? That is, which player on this list is expendable to the M’s and at the same time someone another team would value enough to trade for?
and FWIW, I imagine both the All Star game hoopla & the baby had to impact Lopez in the 2nd half…
Does Reed really still merit a 7 reward — the same as Snelling and Tui? It seems like he’s slipping to 4-5 of late.
He still has the ability to hit .280/.350/.450 in the majors as a center fielder, and that has significant value. Performance shouldn’t really change our idea of a player’s ceiling, unless they develop a new skill or lose one they had previously (usually due to injury). There’s nothing physically different about Jeremy Reed than there was several years ago, and he wouldn’t be anything close to the first player to struggle for several years before adjusting and becoming the player people expected later in his career.
I’ll ask the same question I asked last year, too: Is there one “spare part†on the Forty that you would dangle out there? That is, which player on this list is expendable to the M’s and at the same time someone another team would value enough to trade for?
If Balentien could have hit better than .150 for the last 6 weeks of the year, he probably would have been that guy. He still may have enough value to fetch something interesting, and I don’t see many scenarios where he ever helps the Mariners.
So, now, I’d say its Reed. The M’s won’t bring him back as a fourth outfielder next year, but there are plenty of clubs who who would like a 25-year-old center fielder who will make nothing next year and has his abilities and previous success. The M’s will be able to flip Reed for an interesting player this offseason.
Thanks Dave, the Future Forty is always a highlight. At this point, between the similarly rated O’Flaherty, Fruto, and Cruceta, who would you pick if there was one middle relief spot open in the M’s bullpen (and LHP v. RHP was not an issue)?
Great work, per usual, Dave. As far as Fruto is concerned, what skill-set, or lack thereof, caused an 8 rating in his risk department?
A Borg offense would be great: Resistance is futile…They probably would be quite disciplined, too.
I think Felix’ rating of the present value is a little high, considering that 7 is already a good regular. If only he wouldn’t rely on the fastball that much.
I note that Cha Baek is absent from the list. I haven’t seem any of his starts and his FIP and xFIP are not that good (small sample size, though). Dave, do you think he’s not good enough to be a fifth starter in his prime, which is coming up shortly (he’s what, 26?).
FF rules. Now, on to the question: Whatever became of Jeff Flaig? I saw that he has been awful in A ball this year, but I remember his name being one to watch when they drafted him a few years back (I think he was highly-rated but slipped due to injuries). Did the injuries render him ineffective for longer than anyone thought? Is he just a bust, plain and simple? Or is there still some light at the end of that (very long) tunnel?
Excellent 40! You can almost see the improvement in the farm system over the last year, or at least since the draft.
The FF is a living, breathing document open to interpetation and change to best allow fans to gauge the current state of prospects. A few questions though. Does Reward represent the projected ceiling of a player based on their current skill set, age, talent and abilities? Felix is above a good regular MLBer with the ability to be a perenial all-star; Jose Lopez and Adam Jones project as above good regulars players as well, with their abilities now at avg. to just below avg. respectively, etc. etc.
If this is a correct assumption then Snelling is a projected as a good regular, though you also have him presently as a good regular or 7. I don’t want to nit-pick, and I am aware of the Snelling love fest and would love to see him become a good regular. But has he already reached his full potential, and with such a small sample size how can you rate him as a good regular?
Also why are Peguero, Avila and Liddi risks at 10? Is it because of age and there is a higher risk of inj. or for them to flame out brfore reaching their abilities?
Great Forty. You have to give some credit to Bavasi and the scouting team as Morrow, Tillman and Butler all have pretty good ceilings and have showed well this year. Not bad for a few months in the organization.
Thanks Dave, the Future Forty is always a highlight. At this point, between the similarly rated O’Flaherty, Fruto, and Cruceta, who would you pick if there was one middle relief spot open in the M’s bullpen (and LHP v. RHP was not an issue)?
I think Cruceta’s the best of the bunch right now, but I’d probably pick O’Flaherty for the middle relief role so that I could give Cruceta a shot at the back end of the rotation. His command probably isn’t good enough, but I’d rather know than wonder.
Great work, per usual, Dave. As far as Fruto is concerned, what skill-set, or lack thereof, caused an 8 rating in his risk department?
His lack of conditioning and questionable mechanics, plus command well below where it needs to be.
I note that Cha Baek is absent from the list. I haven’t seem any of his starts and his FIP and xFIP are not that good (small sample size, though). Dave, do you think he’s not good enough to be a fifth starter in his prime, which is coming up shortly (he’s what, 26?).
Baek is a replacement level pitcher who isn’t going to get any better, and there are literally a ton of Cha Baek’s out there floating around. The vast supply of guys who can do what he does makes him not especially valuable.
FF rules. Now, on to the question: Whatever became of Jeff Flaig?
Injuries took away a huge chunk of his development time, and he’s just never been able to overcome those.
The FF is a living, breathing document open to interpetation and change to best allow fans to gauge the current state of prospects. A few questions though. Does Reward represent the projected ceiling of a player based on their current skill set, age, talent and abilities? Felix is above a good regular MLBer with the ability to be a perenial all-star; Jose Lopez and Adam Jones project as above good regulars players as well, with their abilities now at avg. to just below avg. respectively, etc. etc.
Yea, pretty much.
If this is a correct assumption then Snelling is a projected as a good regular, though you also have him presently as a good regular or 7. I don’t want to nit-pick, and I am aware of the Snelling love fest and would love to see him become a good regular. But has he already reached his full potential, and with such a small sample size how can you rate him as a good regular?
You don’t need to see Snelling become a good regular – he already is. He could hit major league pitching after falling out of bed. As long as he’s healthy, he’s going to hit. He doesn’t need to get any better to be a productive major league player.
Also why are Peguero, Avila and Liddi risks at 10? Is it because of age and there is a higher risk of inj. or for them to flame out brfore reaching their abilities?
Because they have so many adjustments to make before they become effective hitters. There are a lot of things that can go wrong when crossing the bridge of talent to production, and none of them have crossed that bridge yet.
Great Forty. You have to give some credit to Bavasi and the scouting team as Morrow, Tillman and Butler all have pretty good ceilings and have showed well this year. Not bad for a few months in the organization.
The Butler pick looks phenomenal two months in, certainly. I’m not quite as encouraged about the pro debuts of Morrow or Tillman. Morrow isn’t as major league ready as they had hoped, and Tillman needs a personality overhaul.
Finally!
Dave can find 40 players in the system and not include any “Suspects”.
I also really like the “Present” column.
Why is Snelling listed in Tacoma and O’Flaherty in San Antonio? Did I miss something?
Because I always miss something. It’s a tradition.
I left Cruceta, Morse, Chick, Feierabend in the minors since they’re only up due to September additions.
Thanks for the update, Dave.
Combining Yuni’s defensive perfection (not likely to improve, but no need to) and offensive potential (couldn’t he hit 280/340/460?) seems to be worth more than a ceiling of 7 at the major-league level. C’mon, give him an 8, if for no other reason than to intimidate the Angels fans that are convinced Aybar is god (not that he isn’t).
Combining Yuni’s defensive perfection (not likely to improve, but no need to) and offensive potential (couldn’t he hit 280/340/460?)
I’m not convinced he’d be able to do that on a consistent basis. He’s kind of hacktastic. Basically, I exepct him to be a better version of Cristian Guzman.
I’ve always appreciated that you guys have been able to put ego aside and make changes based upon commenters’ suggestions. I know…it’s a small change, but some other websites’ owners rule their roost as if their life hung in the balance.
Kudos!!
Dave, Snelling rates as a seven now, and only a seven at peak?
That would seem to indicate that he’s only going to peak as a good regular major leaguer. Doesn’t his skill set go to the building skills with age of power and plate discipline and as he isn’t dependent on speed his babip should not suffer much as speed fades with age?
For a site dedicated calling itself the Cult of Doyle at times, aren’t you underplaying his peak ability?
Great job Dave. Thank you. I think the “present” column is an improvement over the previous rising/falling comment. One question: The lowest risk you have assigned is Yuni at “5″. Is the “risk” column something other than a 10 point scale, and if so, how should we interpret it? Are you saying that all prospects/players have at least a 50% chance of a flameout?
I will second the confusion of bat guano. That just sounds wierd… but in any case I am a bit confused by the Risk column as well. Can you guys give a bit better explanation of what that number means?
18, 19 – I was thinking of asking about that, too.
I’m assuming at this point that the arguments are even stronger than before that we should have paid the extra money and taken Andrew Miller over Morrow. Correct?
Is there anyone else in retrospect who we should have taken over him, like Lincecum, who has started very strongly?
I also wondered why Snelling doesn’t have a higher potential reward level.
Dave, you really think Foppert’s completely done, or is the organization just not willing to put in any more time with him?
If the latter’s the case that seems odd given how patient they were with Meche and Ryan Anderson’s injuries and it seems to me that Foppert was every bit as good a prospect as those two once were.
Dave,
Since you dug pretty deep into the low minors for the final edition of the FF, was Doug Salinas at all close to the list? Low 90s velocity and a developing breaking ball at 17 years old makes him pretty interesting, no?
Betancourt will probably be a .300+ hitter, but he’ll probably never draw many walks, and won’t hit for more than gap power because he’s a ground ball/line drive hitter. maybe .300/.340/.440 ceiling, with the possibility of having randomly high BA seasons
Combining Yuni’s defensive perfection (not likely to improve, but no need to) and offensive potential (couldn’t he hit 280/340/460?) seems to be worth more than a ceiling of 7 at the major-league level. C’mon, give him an 8, if for no other reason than to intimidate the Angels fans that are convinced Aybar is god (not that he isn’t).
I think you’re overestimating his offensive abilities. He’s a heavy ground ball hitter, and those guys have very limited power potential. He’s also unlikely to improve his approach enough to draw as many walks as your scenario suggests. I think he’s a .290/.330/.420 guy who will have significant variance due to the inconsistency of groundball hitters.
That would seem to indicate that he’s only going to peak as a good regular major leaguer. Doesn’t his skill set go to the building skills with age of power and plate discipline and as he isn’t dependent on speed his babip should not suffer much as speed fades with age?
I think Snelling is about as good as he’s going to get. He might add a little more power, but I’ve always seen him as a .280/.380/.470 guy, and I think he’s pretty close to that right now. For a corner outfielder who has problems staying healthy, that’s just a pretty good player, not a star. We love Doyle, but I don’t think he’s got the upside of a guy who plays a premier defensive position or is going to hit for a ton of power. It’s hard to be an all-star in a corner outfield spot while slugging .500.
Great job Dave. Thank you. I think the “present†column is an improvement over the previous rising/falling comment. One question: The lowest risk you have assigned is Yuni at “5″. Is the “risk†column something other than a 10 point scale, and if so, how should we interpret it? Are you saying that all prospects/players have at least a 50% chance of a flameout?
Don’t interpret the 1-10 ranking as a percentage. A 5 does not mean 50% risk, just like a 10 doesn’t mean 100% risk. And I think its more an indication that the Mariners have a lot of high risk, high reward prospects. If the M’s had a guy like Alex Gordon in the system, he’d get a risk rating of 1 or 2. But they don’t.
I made a comment like those expressed in 18-20 previously, but after more thought, I think that the risk scale slanted toward the higher numbers is perfectly fine.
Here is one example. If you want a player with low risk, perhaps historically you could have picked Cal Ripkin Jr. Obviously the iron man thing brings down the risk considerble as does his overall consistent offensive contributions, but there is going to be some risk involved. For example, the fact that he changed his batting stance ever 80 at bats or so put him at some risk to have a big change in performance (for at least 80 ABs; small sample size stuff included). Also shortstop is a demanding position that incorporated more risk of injury than say 1st base. One more risk from the perspective of the team: later in his career he was so well loved at shortstop by the fans, ownership (etc) that he probably outlived his usefulness at the position due to diminished range and perhaps should have moved to third base a couple of seasons sooner than he did.
So even under optimal conditions for real life players, pretty much everyone has some risk and the lowest you might ever get would be 3. Also, I think that Dave cited low risk players on previous FF editions.
Ha, beat you to it, Dave. I rock.
It seems odd that the organization thinks all these hitters will figure out how to be patient on their own. Not everbody is Ted Williams. A lot of them are just “see the pitch, swing at the pitch.” It seems to me that not having a plan, not thinking about what the pitcher is thinking in a given count, not understanding what kind of a hitter you are and playing to your strengths, are all things that will cause you to flail more at the plate and be even less patient (the kind of bad habits you mentioned). Does the org really think this isn’t a set of teachable skills, or do they think the kids won’t listen until they fail while relying on merely inate talent? Or what?
I’m assuming at this point that the arguments are even stronger than before that we should have paid the extra money and taken Andrew Miller over Morrow. Correct?
I loved Andrew Miller then, and I don’t love him any less now. Miller is clearly better than Morrow. That said, we need to understand that the Mariners organization was not going to pay that far above slot for the pick, and that wasn’t a decision made by the baseball operations department. Criticism of the non-selection of Morrow would have to be aimed at the ownership level, which took their cues from the commissioner’s office.
Is there anyone else in retrospect who we should have taken over him, like Lincecum, who has started very strongly?
I’d still take Morrow over Lincecum. I know I’m in the minority, but Lincecum’s command is a problem, even though his absurd strikeout rate is definitely tantalizing.
Dave, you really think Foppert’s completely done, or is the organization just not willing to put in any more time with him?
No pitcher is ever completely done until they retire, because arm strength seemingly comes and goes at random. But he hasn’t made any progress this year, and the organization is about at their end with him.
Since you dug pretty deep into the low minors for the final edition of the FF, was Doug Salinas at all close to the list? Low 90s velocity and a developing breaking ball at 17 years old makes him pretty interesting, no?
Salinas is a guy to keep an eye on, but he’s not in my Top 40 yet. There are a few hundred 17-year-olds with low-90s velocity and a developing breaking ball in the minors. He’ll have to separate himself from that pack.
Dave, what level do you think Brandon Morrow will start at next year? Is it possible they start him off at San Antonio?
Dave, what level do you think Brandon Morrow will start at next year? Is it possible they start him off at San Antonio?
San Antonio would be the reasonable suggestion, but with this organization, it’s not hard to see him in Tacoma.
Wow, Tacoma would be insane. I thought double-A might be a stretch, but would be his spot because of the organizational philosophy of rushing players.
Great post, Dave…but I have some quarrel with this point:
The Mariners currently have a line-up full of hitters who attack the ball and don’t wait for their pitch, and with their aggressive promotions, they’re breeding another group of swing-at-anything-hackers.
I’m not sure that it necessarily tracks that hyper-promotion = impatient approach. Further, this point might be incongruous with your other rationale, because if hitter are mainly “see the ball, hit the ball” hitters at that age, then what good does it do to leave them at a level where that is still an effective way to hit? By forcing them to look at better pitching, and subsequently fail, the tactic of hyper-promotion may allow for better teaching opportunities by giving coaches who could be teaching patience at the plate a more receptive audience.
Now, where your analysis may be dead on is in the second part. Namely, if the coaching staff at the lower levels stresses agressiveness, then the kids will indeed regenerate today’s offense. But again, that would be the root of the problem, not the hyper-aggressive promotion tactic.
I like the new “present” column.
It seems to me that Bavasi *likes* aggressive hitters — look at the Angels hitters now — as a group they’re very interested in being aggressive at the plate and making “productive” outs. He’s decided that the Angel’s organizational philosophy works, and he’s going to force it on the M’s young hitters by advancing them rapidly. WYSIWYG with Bavasi, no real surprises here.
Based on recent lessons learned in the organization, what would a reasonable number of innings be for Morrow next year?
Which of the M’s many LHP change-up artists do you think has the most value at this point? Not Blackley, i’d guess – so Rohrbaugh or Jimenez?
Also, has the Org opinion of Cruceta changed much this year? He went from being a guy with decent stuff and somewhat poor results (like Bazardo, he never got the K’s you’d expect) to a guy with shaky command, but a demonstrable ability to strike people out. Does his workload alter the projections for him (bullpen arm) any?
Thanks Dave for all your hard work and question-answering ability.
Tillman needs a personality overhaul
What did they expect? He was an Angels fan.
Dave, how do you see the catching situation shaping up for next year? Obviously Kenji is the MLB starter, and Clement should get the majority of the time at Tacoma, but it gets murky from there. Do they stick with Rivera as Kenji’s back-up after his horrible play this year? Would they be better off with Rob Johnson as Kenji’s back-up and Rivera at AAA? I realize Quiroz would probably be a better option than Johnson or Rivera, but the organization seems to be down on him, and seem like they’ll drop him in the off-season. I think my ideal situation would be Kenji and Quiroz or a FA replacement level catcher for the big league team, Clement and Rivera at AAA, with Rob Johnson starting at AA. Thoughts?
Regenerate? Huh? Are they going to turn the offense into Borg or into Southern Baptists?
Trolls. Only vulnerable to fire and acid.
Based on recent lessons learned in the organization, what would a reasonable number of innings be for Morrow next year?
130 to 150.
Which of the M’s many LHP change-up artists do you think has the most value at this point? Not Blackley, i’d guess – so Rohrbaugh or Jimenez?
Which item on the 99 cent value menu at Wendys most tastes like food? I don’t know, and I’m not sure I care.
(yes, that’s a little harsh, but I’m glad the organization has finally stopped collecting these guys and waiting for one to pan out)
Also, has the Org opinion of Cruceta changed much this year? He went from being a guy with decent stuff and somewhat poor results (like Bazardo, he never got the K’s you’d expect) to a guy with shaky command, but a demonstrable ability to strike people out. Does his workload alter the projections for him (bullpen arm) any?
Not really. They liked him enough to claim him on waivers, so they weren’t really that surprised when he started missing bats, but his command just hasn’t gotten any better, so he runs up high pitch counts very quickly, and he’s still quite prone to the long ball. Those are pretty significant problems, and he’s going to have to show real improvement to convince them to give him a legitimate shot at the rotation.
Dave, how do you see the catching situation shaping up for next year?
I’m guessing we’ll see them invite a veteran backup in on an NRI to push Rivera in spring training, but that they’ll stick with Rene, and we’ll see basically the same setup we have now. I don’t see a scenario where Rob Johnson goes back to Double-A, and he’s clearly not major league ready, so my guess is he and Clement will continue to split duty down in Tacoma.
I’m not sure that it necessarily tracks that hyper-promotion = impatient approach. Further, this point might be incongruous with your other rationale, because if hitter are mainly “see the ball, hit the ball†hitters at that age, then what good does it do to leave them at a level where that is still an effective way to hit? By forcing them to look at better pitching, and subsequently fail, the tactic of hyper-promotion may allow for better teaching opportunities by giving coaches who could be teaching patience at the plate a more receptive audience.
There hasn’t been a good, in depth research piece on this issue, so I can’t argue with you from a empirical standpoint. We’re disagreeing in theory, so it’s possible that either of us is right.
That said, there’s a lot of circumstantial evidence that rushing players can harm development. Look at Tui this year – he was so terrible in San Antonio that I can’t find a major league hitter who had that poor of a performance in the minors and went on to have any kind of a career. Maybe this is evidence that Tui was never good enough to begin with, but I don’t buy that, not yet.
Eventually, someone (maybe me, who knows) is going to do a big project on this issue and come up with some definitive conclusions. I suspect that rushing players doesn’t have the effect the Mariners are hoping for, but I can’t prove it.
As a St. John’s graduate, I’m very interested in Varvaro’s career. How has he done on the road back from surgery?
Dave, Is Yung-Chi Chen basically the Taiwanese version of Willie Bloomquist, with a bit more plate discipline and a little less speed? Or does a 5 reward, 4 present indicate that you think he’ll be a better backup infielder? Would you put Chen on the roster instead of Willie next year if you were GM?
As a St. John’s graduate, I’m very interested in Varvaro’s career. How has he done on the road back from surgery?
His stuff still isn’t all the way back, and he had recurring soreness, so they kept him on a very short leash. We’ll have a better idea where he stands next year.
Dave, Is Yung-Chi Chen basically the Taiwanese version of Willie Bloomquist, with a bit more plate discipline and a little less speed? Or does a 5 reward, 4 present indicate that you think he’ll be a better backup infielder? Would you put Chen on the roster instead of Willie next year if you were GM?
They have different skillsets, but they’re probably similar in value. Chen has a little more pop than Willie does, isn’t quite as good at making contact, and is a worse baserunner and defender. He’s not going to be as good as Willie in a reserve role, but would probably be a little bit better as a starter, if that makes sense. His skillset isn’t really one that is as effective coming off the bench (since he’s not much of a baserunner or a defensive replacement), but if someone had to fill in for Lopez for a few weeks next year, he’d be better than Willie.
I think Chen’s going to end up as a marginal major leaguer, spending most years as a reserve who doesn’t play that much.
Dave,
Who do you think are the most likely candidates for the aggressive promotion program? Most obvious choices seem like Valbuena, Tillman, and Butler. I know it’s tough to make sense of the Mariners’ decisions about player assignments, but with a good idea of which guys the team is high on, who else do you see them challenging next year?
For whatever it’s worth, SI’s Verducci seems to think plate discipline is “an inate skill” — mind you, this is in an aside when he’s discussing “pitcher’s IQ” and claims that is an inate skill too — and cites Jamie Moyer among others as examples. So I guess his whole conception of inate skill is somewhat questionable, given that Moyer and Schilling are part of his evidence and they’re among the best-prepared pitchers in baseball — and Moyer at least had to spend years learning before this supposed inate skill made itself evident. The actual quote regarding Pitching IQ is “I believe it’s largely an innate skill, like plate discipline and speed. You can improve upon it, but only so much from your baseline level.” Equating speed and plate discipline seems strange too. OK, so maybe all this shows is Verducci is talking out of something other than his mouth when it comes to this topic. I’ll stop now.
Dave, your comment on organizational hitting caught my attention.
I’ve been wondering… In the Mariner organization, who sets the philosophy for hitting and pitching?
Maybe now, or in some rainy-day post, I’d love to see the job descriptions of the upper management in the baseball side of the operation — the guys who’s ideas and judgment will have a big effect on the “futures” of the Future 40. Honestly, Dave, I don’t know what our general manager actually does or what he’s responsible for (I know, too, that the job varies from organization to organization).
And thanks again to you and the rest of the crew for your work and insight.
Who do you think are the most likely candidates for the aggressive promotion program? Most obvious choices seem like Valbuena, Tillman, and Butler. I know it’s tough to make sense of the Mariners’ decisions about player assignments, but with a good idea of which guys the team is high on, who else do you see them challenging next year?
They’ve been a lot more aggressive with hitters than pitchers. I think there’s evidence they’ll go slowly with Tillman and Butler. And I’m not sure Valbuena is good enough to qualify for an aggressive push.
I’d say the best bets for continued aggressive promotion are the young guys they’re already pushing – Halman and Lo, specifically. I could see the M’s pushing either, maybe both, to Inland Empire to start next year.
For whatever it’s worth, SI’s Verducci seems to think plate discipline is “an inate skillâ€
I don’t really like the term plate discipline. It’s basically a stathead created word to try to define what BB/K rate is tracking, but there’s really no such skill as plate discipline – its an amalgamation of several skills.
I think pitch recognition is an innate skill to a large degree. The ability to recognize and react to the ball coming out of a pitchers hand absolutely varies by player, and while it can be improved upon, it’s pretty rare to see a guy take an expontential leap forward in pitch recognition.
However, the approach a player takes is almost certainly a learned skill. Some hitters clearly take a plan to the plate to swing at a certain pitch in a certain location, and will work a count as much as they can to get that pitch. Other hitters go up there simply looking to swing the bat, and they’ll attempt to hit anything that they feel they can make contact with.
Plate discipline is a combination of the pitch recognition skill and the hitters chosen approach at the plate. Adrian Beltre doesn’t have the pitch recnogition skill necessary to become Edgar Martinez, but he’s certainly capable of adjusting his approach at the plate, as we’ve seen him do this year (both postively and negatively).
Greg Halman and Carlos Peguero may never become Bobby Abreu, but they don’t need to become Juan Encarnacion either. The M’s need to be helping these kids with their approach and maximizing the abilities they can get from their innate pitch recognition skill.
Ooooh, I second 46. That would be awesome.
Okay, I’ll put that into the queue of posts to write, It will be a winter piece, no doubt, and probably not until after all the restructuring is done. Probably looking at December before I write that one up.
Does that mean you expect Valbuena to start next year in the Cali league? In considering him a candidate, I was talking about starting him in Double-A next year. Do you think that’s unlikely?
Re: pitchers, the Ms were willing to promote guys all the way from Latin-American summer leagues to full-season ball (Escalona, Blanco) over the past few years. They also had 2 relievers start the year in Inland Empire and end up in the majors. True, they haven’t been aggressive with as many pitchers as hitters, but couldn’t that be more of a personnel issue rather than a philosophical one? There weren’t that many pitchers the organization was really high on coming into this year.
Does that mean you expect Valbuena to start next year in the Cali league? In considering him a candidate, I was talking about starting him in Double-A next year. Do you think that’s unlikely?
No, I think a a Double-A assignment next year is totally realistic, but also not that aggressive. He turns 21 in a few months, and it’s not at all rare for a 21-year-old to begin a season in the Texas League.
Re: pitchers, the Ms were willing to promote guys all the way from Latin-American summer leagues to full-season ball (Escalona, Blanco) over the past few years. They also had 2 relievers start the year in Inland Empire and end up in the majors. True, they haven’t been aggressive with as many pitchers as hitters, but couldn’t that be more of a personnel issue rather than a philosophical one? There weren’t that many pitchers the organization was really high on coming into this year.
Escalona and Blanco aren’t much in the way of prospects, so I don’t think I’d call their assignments “aggressive promotions” as much as I would “filling a need”. Lowe and O’Flaherty weren’t aggressively promoted until they dominated the levels they were assigned to, and their initial assignments were normal. They earned their promotions. That’s a striking difference from what we’ve seen the club do with its hitting prospects.
Dave, I read a piece earlier this year about teams (notably the Rockies) making extensive use of video i-pods to watch opposing pitchers whenever it’s convenient. Does this represent any kind of leap forward in “learning” pitch recognition? Or is it used mostly to study pitch sequences to improve the hitters’ approach?
It seems to me that pitch recognition is a matter of repetitions.
Fine by me, Dave. I expect that if the M’s Upper Politburo decides that Bavasi needs to be tossed from the Kremlin window, it would be settled by December- so waiting a bit after the season makes sense, anyway.
It seems to me that the “aggressive promotion” strategy MAY contribute to a players tendency to hack away at the plate, but it doesn’t HAVE to be that way – if the coaching staff at every level of the organization would TEACH the patient approach at the plate, and TEACH the players that pitchers at every level have to throw you strikes, then that approach could work it’s way up to the big club. I think the problem isn’t that the players struggle when promoted, it’s that they learn to hack their way out of it.
Dave- Is there a single person responsible for coordination of hitting philosophies throughout the organization? Or do players get taught different approaches toward “patience” at different levels of the system?
Thoughts on Chris Minaker? He started out at Everett and ended up at Wisconsin, not doing too badly, though his sample size is small.
Actually Doug Fister is another one I’d be curious to know your thoughts on. He started out as a starter then got moved to the bullpen.
It seems to me that pitch recognition is a matter of repetitions.
It can be improved upon, but to a large degree, hand-eye coordination and reaction times are a skill that some have more than others.
Dave- Is there a single person responsible for coordination of hitting philosophies throughout the organization? Or do players get taught different approaches toward “patience†at different levels of the system?
Glenn Adams was the hitting coordinator, who travels around and generally makes sure that everyone is on the same page, but he won’t be brought back next year. The M’s don’t have anything in place to insure that all the coaches are teaching the same things, and in many cases, that doesn’t happen.
Thoughts on Chris Minaker? He started out at Everett and ended up at Wisconsin, not doing too badly, though his sample size is small.
Not a prospect.
Actually Doug Fister is another one I’d be curious to know your thoughts on. He started out as a starter then got moved to the bullpen.
Kinda interesting, someone to keep an eye on, but a project more than anything else.
future forty is great concept, how long has this feature been a part of ussm ? can somebody articulate some of the great predictions and not so great prognastications from Forty lists of previous seasons ?
future forty is great concept, how long has this feature been a part of ussm ? can somebody articulate some of the great predictions and not so great prognastications from Forty lists of previous seasons ?
I’ve been doing the Future Forty since before USSM existed, and it’s been a permanent part of the site since our inception 3+ years ago.
I don’t really think the Future Forty gives any prognostications, but if you’re looking for players we’ve identified well before it was popular, I’d say Felix counts. USSM essentially introduced King Felix, including inventing the moniker, to the general public.
As for guys I’ve been wildly wrong about, I was very skeptical of Adam Jones’ ability to hit after he was drafted, including making several references to my belief that his major league career would come as a pitcher, and he’s shown me to be completely wrong on that issue.
Not often that I hope you’re wrong, Dave, but I hope you’re wrong about Minaker.
Not often that I hope you’re wrong, Dave, but I hope you’re wrong about Minaker.
I hope I’m wrong about everyone in the system that I don’t think is going to make it. I hope I’m wrong about Wlad, Valbuena, Johnson, Tui, and Wilson.
Minaker, though, I’m not sure what we’re supposed to like there. He’s like a slow Willie Bloomquist.
Minor point, I know, but I disagree. I think that comparison sells him short. I like his approach at the plate, he’s solid in the field, and he’s got a good deal more power than Willie ever did (perhaps excepting Willie’s first 200 at-bats at Lancaster, but even that was driven by a hell of a lot of doubles). I saw him play a few times in college, and think there’s more there than any scouting report I’ve ever seen gives him credit for. Liked his bat and glove when I saw him in Cedar Rapids this summer, too.
But then again, nobody’s ever called him a prospect, so I’m probably just hoping the Mariners got a minor steal. I was psyched when they drafted him, though.
——I’d still take Morrow over Lincecum. I know I’m in the minority, but Lincecum’s command is a problem, even though his absurd strikeout rate is definitely tantalizing.—–
Doesn’t Morrow also have command issues?
Apologies for needlessly separating this post, but Dave, what’s the deal with Butler’s stuff? You’ve said that he’s a soft-tosser–under 90–and that’s what the reports before the draft said as well. But BA says he’s in the low-nineties now?
I find it encouraging that Butler’s command has really improved his past three starts. Overall, his walk rate will look troublesomely, even with the lenience to very young pitchers, but perhaps something clicked recently and maybe he’ll be able to carry this over into next season.
Doesn’t Morrow also have command issues?
Not nearly to the degree that Lincecum does. Even when Timmy is rolling, he’s walking 4-5 guys a game and throwing 120-130 pitches.
Apologies for needlessly separating this post, but Dave, what’s the deal with Butler’s stuff? You’ve said that he’s a soft-tosser–under 90–and that’s what the reports before the draft said as well. But BA says he’s in the low-nineties now?
I don’t recall saying he’s a soft tosser. The scouting reports on him that I’ve gotten have him at 87-91 with a big curveball that’s an outpitch when it’s on. An 18-year-old who stands 6′7 and already sits at 87-91 isn’t a soft tosser in anyone’s book, including mine.
I find it encouraging that Butler’s command has really improved his past three starts. Overall, his walk rate will look troublesomely, even with the lenience to very young pitchers, but perhaps something clicked recently and maybe he’ll be able to carry this over into next season.
It’s the Northwest League and it’s a really small sample. There’s no reason to let performances dictate your excitement level. That said, Butler got pretty terrific reviews from scouts who saw him, so there are reasons to be excited about his debut. I just wouldn’t get excited based on the numbers. Short-season League stats don’t really mean anything.
Dave,
Didn’t the M’s think they had a SPECIAL personality in Tillman when they drafted him. All you had to do was check out his myspace account. It would be great to see Morrow, Tillman and Butler all at Inland next year at the same time. Fun rotation to watch.
Any thoughts on Michael Garciaparra? He only got in 136 ABs in Tacoma, but did have an OBP of .422.
Any thoughts on Michael Garciaparra?
He’s not a major leaguer. He has zero power, which major league pitchers would exploit by throwing the ball right down the middle and forcing him to swing the bat. A good eye isn’t useful if you can’t hit the ball, and Michael Garciaparra can’t hit the ball.
Speaking of Michael Garciaparra, Ryan Howard went in Round 5 of 2001 We could have had him but picked Garciaparra, Rene Rivera, Laszaro Abreau, Michael Wilson, Tim Merritt and Bobby Livingston, all before the Phillies picked Howard in the fifth round.
I know lots of other teams could say the same, as they could with Pujols, but we sure had a slew of terrible drafts–at least that seems to be turning
Well, JJ isn’t getting overused in these meaningless September games…
Whoops, wrong thread open. *blushes*
We could have had David Wright instead of Garciaparra