Dave’s 2006 Offseason Plan
Okay, so, after several shorter posts explaining parts of the ideology I’m taking into this offseason, and hinting around at some of my ideas, I’m finally unveiling the offseason plan. These are my suggestions on how to reshape the roster to best contend both next year and in the future. Essentially, this is what I would attempt to do if I was handed the keys to the front office and given full power to make personnel decisions.
While this kind of exercise cannot reflect reality, I’ve done my best to make sure that the transactions involved are at least within the realm of possibility. The trade values and free agent dollars are close to what I would expect the actual cost to be. And, as always, keep in mind that the ideas are more important than the names. The main thrust of this post is to get the concepts of how I would build this team across, and not necessarily an advocacy of acquiring a specific player at any cost. So, without further ado, the roster:
| Lineup | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Ichiro Suzuki | CF | $12,500,000 |
| 2. | Chris Snelling | RF | $500,000 |
| 3. | Manny Ramirez | DH | $19,000,000 |
| 4. | Jim Edmonds | LF | $8,000,000 |
| 5. | Adrian Beltre | 3B | $11,500,000 |
| 6. | Raul Ibanez | 1B | $5,000,000 |
| 7. | Kenji Johjima | C | $5,430,000 |
| 8. | Jose Lopez | 2B | $350,000 |
| 9. | Yuniesky Betancourt | SS | $450,000 |
| Bench | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Todd Greene | C | $1,000,000 |
| 2. | Willie Bloomquist | Inf | $850,000 |
| 3. | Jose Cruz Jr | OF | $500,000 |
| 4. | Mike Morse | 1B/3B | $350,000 |
| 5. | Oswaldo Navarro | Util | $350,000 |
| Rotation | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Felix Hernandez | Starter | $400,000 |
| 2. | Daisuke Matsuzaka | Starter | $6,500,000 |
| 3. | Jarrod Washburn | Starter | $9,500,000 |
| 4. | R. Lopez/A. Guzman | Starter | $1,000,000 |
| 5. | C. Baek/T. Redding | Starter | $350,000 |
| Bullpen | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | J.J. Putz | Closer | $3,000,000 |
| 2. | Mark Lowe | RH Setup | $350,000 |
| 3. | George Sherrill | LH Setup | $350,000 |
| 4. | Jon Huber | RH Middle | $350,000 |
| 5. | Eric O’Flaherty | LH Middle | $350,000 |
| 6. | Emiliano Fruto | Long Relief | $350,000 |
Whew. That’s a lot of changes to digest, I know, so here’s the specific transactions that lead to a 25 man roster that comes in at just under $89 million.
Sign Ichiro to a 3 year, $42 million extension from 2008-2010.
While this doesn’t necessarily have to be the first chronological move, it is the first domino that needs to be discussed. The way this team needs to be built this offseason, uncertainty about the team’s star center fielder (and man, it’s nice to say that) is not something they can afford to deal with. If they’re going to build a team around him, they can’t have him walk away at the end of next season. He either needs to be re-signed or traded. I’m betting on, and pulling for, re-signed.
Bid $25 million in posting fee to secure rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka and sign him to a 3 year, $30 million contract.
Convince ownership that, like they did with Ichiro, this should be a special expenditure that does not count against the budget. The key in the contract negotiations will be to not grant him free agency when the deal is up. After this contract expires, he’ll be arbitration eligible, and still under Mariner control through 2012. To justify the posting fee, the Mariners have to control his rights for six years.
Trade Richie Sexson to San Francisco for DH Eddie Martinez-Esteve and OF Nate Schierholtz.
The Giants badly need hitters and have truckloads of cash to spend, but they’ve shown a strong resistance to giving out long term contracts. Sexson’s 2 year, $28 million deal is a bargain compared to Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano’s demands, and the Giants get their cleanup hitter for a pair of outfield prospects who may or may not develop into major league regulars. The Mariners clear salary space for other acquisitions, as well as acquiring two bats who could potentially help in the second half of 2007 or 2008.
Trade Ben Broussard and Julio Mateo to Baltimore for RHP Jim Johnson.
The Mariners continue to clear salary and roster spots, saving about $5 million in salary in this deal and bringing in a 23-year-old starting pitching prospect who could be stashed in Tacoma and provide rotation depth. The Orioles badly need some power in their line-up, as well as bullpen help, and they have a surplus of younger starting pitchers. Johnson adds depth to the Tacoma rotation, giving them another guy with a good arm who is a couple improvements away from being in the mix for an end-of-rotation starter spot.
Trade Rafael Soriano, Jeremy Reed, and Francisco Cruceta to Boston for DH Manny Ramirez.
The annual Manny Ramirez trade request has reportedly occurred again, and the Mariners are one of a few teams that could actually swallow the $38 million he’s still owed, have a need for a DH, and have the young talent the Red Sox will demand in return. The Mariners significant bullpen depth will allow them to survive the loss of Soriano and Curceta, while Jeremy Reed’s spot with the team has essentially been usurped by Chris Snelling. Reed gives the Red Sox a cheap legitimate center fielder, allowing them to shift Crisp back to left field and significantly upgrade their outfield defense. Soriano gives them a young flamethrowing reliever to replace Papelbon, and Cruceta gives them depth in middle relief or as a swing starter. Boston also sheds $19 million in salary commitments each of the next two years, allowing them to chase another top tier free agent.
Trade Eduardo Perez, Wladmir Balentien and Justin Thomas to St. Louis for Jim Edmonds and $2 million in cash.
The Cardinals have made overtures about declining the option on Jim Edmonds’ contract and paying him a $3 million buyout rather than having him under contract next year at $10 million. His injuries have hurt them this year, and at 38, he’s definitely at the end of his career. However, he’s still a productive player when he’s on the field, and the Mariners should take advantage of the Cardinals need to retool. Balentien and Thomas give them two midlevel prospects, Perez gives LaRussa another bat off the bench, and they save $1 million in cash by not paying the buyout to make him a free agent. The Mariners, in turn, get a patient left-handed slugging outfielder whose swing is perfect for Safeco Field and would provide an all around upgrade in the outfield. His defense isn’t what it was, but he’d be a major improvement in left field, and his offense against RHP is still among the best in the league.
Trade Jake Woods, Nate Schierholtz and Michael Wilson to the Cubs for RHP Angel Guzman.
Guzman is a classic change-of-scenery guy. A former top prospect, who has dominated the minors with his fastball/change combination, has struggled in Chicago, and at age 25, the Cubs are running low on patience. Their desire to add a veteran to the rotation this offseason likely eliminates his chances of landing a job in the 2007 rotation, and the Cubs could certainly use a couple of outfield prospects with some power in their bats.
He gives the Mariners another league minimum option as an end of rotation starter with significant upside. He uses his changeup as an out-pitch weapon to miss bats and has shown good command throughout his career in the minors. His breaking ball is still average, but the change-up is good enough to feature as his offspeed pitch. As a flyball pitcher, leaving Wrigley for Safeco would be a dream come true. Baseball is littered with guys who profiled as Guzman did, struggled early in their careers, and developed into useful starting pitchers later. Call it the Carl Pavano mold.
Sign C Todd Greene, RHP Rodrigo Lopez, RHP Tim Redding, and OF Jose Cruz Jr to one year contracts.
Having spent a huge majority of the payroll on Ramirez, Edmonds, and Matsuzaka, the M’s need to get some undervalued role players to fill out the roster. I’ve written up Lopez before, so read that post if you haven’t before. Greene gives the Mariners a backup catcher with a little power who would be a significant improvement over Rene Rivera, and Jose Cruz Jr gives the team a fourth outfielder that can hit left-handers and play both corners as well as center in a pinch. Redding comes in to challenge Baek for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Convert Raul Ibanez to first base.
For the pitching staff’s sake, Ibanez needs to get out of left field, but he’s been consistent in his desire to play the field. With the acqusition of Manny Ramirez, DH is taken, and the removal of Broussard’s contract was necessary to get the team under payroll. Ibanez has played first for long stretches before, and with an offseason of preperation and some work with Mike Goff, he should be adequate at the position. The defensive improvement Edmonds provides in left will more than make up for any frustrations we’d have with Ibanez at first.
_____________________________________________________________________
Okay, so, that’s the team. The total payroll for the 25 man roster comes in at $88.7 million. The team is, in my opinion, significantly better than the one they’re going to end the year with, and a team that is good enough to win a World Series. Seriously. Let’s take a look at some strengths and weaknesses:
Team Strengths
This team can hit. You’re looking at something like an .800 OPS, in Safeco, from this line-up, as long as Ramirez and Edmonds each play 140 games. Aside from the Yankees and their all-star lineup, it would have a chance to be the best in the American League. The defense would also be upgraded, which would have a cascading effect to improve the pitching staff. There’s not a bad position player on the team, and while the bench isn’t great, there’s depth in the upper minors. It also is a roster that doesn’t block the long term positions of the organization’s better prospects, and gives opportunities for young players to break into roles once they’ve shown they can succeed in the minors. And, for what its worth, Jim Edmonds is a revered clubhouse leader with all kinds of playoff experience, and should at least provide a respected voice in the clubhouse.
Team Weaknesses
Injuries could be a big problem. Snelling, Ramirez, and Edmonds haven’t been pictures of health, and that’s the heart of the batting order. There’s not a true first baseman on the roster, so if Ibanez and Morse are absurdly awful with the glove, you have to live with it. The bullpen’s depth has been thinned out significantly, and you’d be leaning on unproven pitchers for significant contributions in the middle innings. The back of the rotation is filled with innings eaters who lack a true outpitch, and, with the exception of Angel Guzman, are not the power arms the organization covets. The pitching staff would be built around a 21-year-old and a guy who has never pitched an inning in the majors.
Expectations
Knowing the risks and the potential failures, this is still a good team with a real shot to go deep in the playoffs. On paper, depending on what the rest of the AL West does, I’d pencil it in for 85-95 wins. The key players would be Edmonds, Felix, and Matsuzaka, with the performance of those three probably determining how far the team goes. It’s a good enough team to win the AL West in 2007, and it’s still a team that is young in the core and is setup to contend long term. The Mariners can win next year with this roster and not sacrifice the future to do so.
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Great post Dave. It’s been thrown around for months that SF is a great place to dump Sexson…..what % chance do you think there is of that actually happening this offseason?
If Dave were any smarter, his head would explode.
The only thing I don’t like is Manny Ramirez. I don’t think his power will work in SafeCo. Checking with the Stats Inc. charts, I think it probable.
Thoughts?
Everything else looks freaking brilliant.
(your links didn’t work)
Hmm, that’s not bad.
The main thrust of this post is to get the concepts of how I would build this team across, and not necessarily an advocacy of acquiring a specific player at any cost.
Yeah, flexibility is good. WHat you’re proposing definitely has some offensive upside- essentially it trades the mess at DH for Manny and the mess in CF for Edmonds.
You’re also selling the M’s current offense short, a bit. The M’s had a .761 OPS in neutral parks, with below replacement-level contributions from 22% of the lineup (CF and DH). I think this lineup maybe rivals the Yankees if everyone stays healthy.
Great post Dave. It’s been thrown around for months that SF is a great place to dump Sexson…..what % chance do you think there is of that actually happening this offseason?
10%, maybe less. I get the feeling that the way he’s ended the year, the organization will be too scared to move him. If they’re going to move a position player, it’s probably Broussard. Remember, this team loves to evaluate players based on what they see. Their lasting memories are going to be of Sexson tearing the cover off the ball, and Broussard hitting .200 and striking out all the time.
If Dave were any smarter, his head would explode.
Can I put this on my business card?
The only thing I don’t like is Manny Ramirez. I don’t think his power will work in SafeCo.
Safeco will take a chunk out of his production, just like it does almost every RHB on the planet. So, instead of hitting .320/.420/.600, he’ll probably hit .300/.400/.550. I’ll still take that, no problem.
You’re also selling the M’s current offense short, a bit. The M’s had a .761 OPS in neutral parks, with below replacement-level contributions from 22% of the lineup (CF and DH). I think this lineup maybe rivals the Yankees if everyone stays healthy.
Well, they don’t get to play 162 games in neutral parks, so I don’t think their road numbers are all that relevant for projecting how they would perform in a 162 game season. We also didn’t see one serious injury to a meaningful position player this year, which isn’t likely to be repeated even if we retain the same roster.
I obviously like my suggested offense quite a bit, but it’s not the Yankees. They’re going to have Gary Sheffield hitting 7th in the playoffs. Their line-up is on a whole other level of incomprehendable goodness.
It’s nice Dave, but…
1. 3 role players for Manny and that $19M albatross of a contract? I just don’t know about that, especially with Soriano not having pitched again this year and Lowe having surgery, albeit minor.
2. I don’t see how Jim Edmonds is going to agree to a trade (he is 10/5 isn’t he?). And his PCS is a red flag for me.
3. I don’t understand your obsession with Redding. He’s always seemed like a very borderline fifth starter. Even with Baek’s not that much more than replacement performance, I don’t see Redding being much more than Franklin with more ground balls.
It seems, too, that you’re really changing the composition of this team with a lot of churn, when it seems like if you just made the first three moves you suggested this team would easily add 10 wins onto this year. And 88 wins… that’s in the mix for the playoffs through the final week.
Some great ideas, but I’m not sure I like the level of churn.
1. 3 role players for Manny and that $19M albatross of a contract? I just don’t know about that, especially with Soriano not having pitched again this year and Lowe having surgery, albeit minor.
If you think Ramirez’s $19 million, at .321/.439/.619, is an albatross, what must you think of Sexson’s $14 million for a .264/.338/.500 line?
Do you really think that Manny isn’t worth $5 million more than Sexson?
2. I don’t see how Jim Edmonds is going to agree to a trade (he is 10/5 isn’t he?). And his PCS is a red flag for me.
Bavasi and Edmonds have a relationship dating back to their days with the Angels. I don’t see the no-trade or the concussion as a big problem.
3. I don’t understand your obsession with Redding. He’s always seemed like a very borderline fifth starter. Even with Baek’s not that much more than replacement performance, I don’t see Redding being much more than Franklin with more ground balls.
His velocity returned to previous levels late in the year, and he was consistently being clocked at 94 MPH in August. He had a very good year in the International League, and he only got stronger as the season went on. In his last 6 starts of the year, he pitched 45 innings, gave up 27 hits, 9 runs, walked 6, and struck out 45, while running a GB/FB rate of 2 to 1.
He’s better than Cha Seung Baek, and he could be had for a simple one year guaranteed contract for the league minimum with incentives. He adds depth and gives the organization another arm to bring to spring training to compete with Baek, Lopez, and Guzman. There’s no downside to the move, and all kinds of potential rewards.
It seems, too, that you’re really changing the composition of this team with a lot of churn, when it seems like if you just made the first three moves you suggested this team would easily add 10 wins onto this year. And 88 wins… that’s in the mix for the playoffs through the final week.
The first three moves are re-sign Ichiro, sign Matsuzaka, and trade Sexson. You really think that essentially swapping Sexson for Matsuzaka, and hoping for improvement from the holdovers, is a 10 win upgrade? Because I can’t think of anyone that would agree with you.
All I’ve got to add is: Raul Ibanez, pickin’ machine!
I like it BECAUSE it’s bold.
In his post-game interview yesterday on KOMO, Bavasi talked of needing a third-place hitter; Ramirez is one of the best in the majors. I also like Cruz, Jr. and Valentin for the bench, although, if I recall, Valentin’s option was picked up by the Reds, so he would have to be obtained via trade. And, assuming Hargrove wants seven relievers, I would leave off Navarro and add one of the fifth starters a long reliever.
Otherwise, I would be very comfortable with this.
I know it’s bizarre, given that he’s asked for a trade, but…
Manny has 5/10 rights to veto any trade. His agent is very likely to demand that the club who trades for him guarantee one or both of his option years. This has the very important effect of generating extra income for the agent, who didn’t represent Manny when the contract was signed.
That 2/$38m deal is not so attractive in that case.
Are there any rules/regulations regarding how a team must negotiate with a Japaneese player after winning the bid to negotiate with him? It seems like the player would lose all his bargaining leverage, and wouldn’t be able to expect the same kind of deal he would get as a free agent.
Manny being Manny and all and getting the logistics of that worked out, what other potential big bats are realistically available for the Mariners?
WOW.
I like that lineup a /lot/.
The chances of anything this innovative HAPPENING are probably pretty slim, but I still love the thinking.
Valentin’s option was picked up by the Reds…
Well, I missed that one. I’ll find a new name to plug in, but this is a perfect example of why I said the names don’t matter as much as the ideas. Finding a backup catcher isn’t the hardest thing in the world.
Manny has 5/10 rights to veto any trade. His agent is very likely to demand that the club who trades for him guarantee one or both of his option years. This has the very important effect of generating extra income for the agent, who didn’t represent Manny when the contract was signed.
I don’t think this will be as big a problem as you think, but even still, I’d rather have a superstar like Ramirez signed to a 3 year, $58 million deal than a decent player like Sexson signed to a 2 year, $28 million deal.
Make it so, Number 1
It seems like the player would lose all his bargaining leverage, and wouldn’t be able to expect the same kind of deal he would get as a free agent.
His leverage in this case is that if he doesn’t like the deal he’s offered, he pitches in Japan one more year and then signs with NY as a free agent next year for a lot more money.
I’ve been entertained this weekend by the columnists weighing in across the country– amazing how many teams should just go get Matsuzaka, Zito & Schmidt and/or Willis, and then trade for Alex and/or Manny.
If Dave were any smarter, his head would explode.
Can I put this on my business card?
I have this sudden vision of Dave with a giant pulsating brain
Are there any rules/regulations regarding how a team must negotiate with a Japaneese player after winning the bid to negotiate with him? It seems like the player would lose all his bargaining leverage, and wouldn’t be able to expect the same kind of deal he would get as a free agent.
His leverage is going back to Seibu to pitch a final year, then becoming a free agent next year, when the Mariners would have to outbid the Yankees. That’s some serious leverage.
Manny being Manny and all and getting the logistics of that worked out, what other potential big bats are realistically available for the Mariners?
The list is really, really short. My list of potential Sexson-replacements basically boiled down to Ramirez, Helton, and Dunn, all of whom have their own special problems.
The chances of anything this innovative HAPPENING are probably pretty slim, but I still love the thinking.
It’s actually less likely that these moves happen than it is that I’m installed as the team’s CEO. There’s just no way the M’s do anything this radical.
If you think Ramirez’s $19 million, at .321/.439/.619, is an albatross, what must you think of Sexson’s $14 million for a .264/.338/.500 line?
Do you really think that Manny isn’t worth $5 million more than Sexson?
I think, with the left field wall as it is, that you run the risk of a double-whammy with Manny (pun unintentional) — an offensive decline combined with a lot of his office going to The Corner Where HRs Die. Now, admittedly, Manny isn’t the same sort of hitter as Sexson, and the BP projections all show him being productive for at least the next two years, but I’m afraid of another Beltre sort of long adjustment period with him. And $19M for a period of adjustment at 35? That could hurt.
Move in the LF wall, though, and now it’s more than reasonable. Hell, it’s a steal, if Lowe is healthy. (Still, I’d love to get some cash back in the deal.)
His velocity returned to previous levels late in the year, and he was consistently being clocked at 94 MPH in August. He had a very good year in the International League, and he only got stronger as the season went on. In his last 6 starts of the year, he pitched 45 innings, gave up 27 hits, 9 runs, walked 6, and struck out 45, while running a GB/FB rate of 2 to 1.
But he was doing this as a 28 year old, wasn’t he? Maybe his arm trouble explains his less-than-optimal seasons in Houston, but he just doesn’t seem like he’s that much of an improvement over Baek. He’s older and has 2-3 MPH on his fastball, but he’s never been able to successfully convert that into any lasting impact in the majors.
Yes, he’s better than Baek. But honestly, I’ve seen Redding pitch on TV, and he has never struck me as even a fifth starter. And yes, that’s subjective, YMMV, you’re a super-genius and my AL-only fantasy team barely finished in the upper division of a twelve-team league by the skin of its teeth.
The first three moves are re-sign Ichiro, sign Matsuzaka, and trade Sexson. You really think that essentially swapping Sexson for Matsuzaka, and hoping for improvement from the holdovers, is a 10 win upgrade? Because I can’t think of anyone that would agree with you.
The computer went haywire when I was typing it, and when I was re-doing it I left out “and the Manny deal” in there. Sorry about that.
Edmonds will [b]never[/b] agree to play left field, especially for a city {I believe) that he has stated he wants nothing to do with.
You’d have to modify, your plan and move Ichiro back to right and Doyle to left. I think the Cardinals are too smart to let Edmonds go after all time the he has spent in the city and the Hall of Fame production he has given them. They’ll be competitors next year, and they’ll need Edmonds to make a run. My guess is that they decline the option and work out an extension (like the M’s did with Edgar).
Other then, good ideas, good plan. Especially Valentin, and Manny. If Soriano isn’t going to start he has to go eventually, as the can only be One Closer. Why not get a guy like Manny in return? Boston has some re-tooling to do anyways.
I think, with the left field wall as it is, that you run the risk of a double-whammy with Manny (pun unintentional) — an offensive decline combined with a lot of his offense going to The Corner Where HRs Die.
To quote the Pixies, where is my mind?
I think, with the left field wall as it is, that you run the risk of a double-whammy with Manny (pun unintentional) — an offensive decline combined with a lot of his office going to The Corner Where HRs Die. Now, admittedly, Manny isn’t the same sort of hitter as Sexson, and the BP projections all show him being productive for at least the next two years, but I’m afraid of another Beltre sort of long adjustment period with him. And $19M for a period of adjustment at 35? That could hurt.
Ramirez is nothing like Beltre, honestly. Manny’s one of the greatest hitters of our generation, and he’s coming off an age 34 season where he was one of the ten best hitters in the game, with numbers that fit right in with the prime of his career. He has serious power to all fields. Unless your plan is to never acquire any kind of right-handed power hitter, I don’t see what your complaint is. It’s Ramirez instead of Sexson. To me, that’s an obvious upgrade, and well worth the extra money, plus the difference in players we give up to acquire Manny from the players we get back for Sexson.
But he was doing this as a 28 year old, wasn’t he? Maybe his arm trouble explains his less-than-optimal seasons in Houston, but he just doesn’t seem like he’s that much of an improvement over Baek. He’s older and has 2-3 MPH on his fastball, but he’s never been able to successfully convert that into any lasting impact in the majors.
Age for pitchers is pretty much irrelevant. Pitchers don’t develop anything like hitters. If you have major league stuff, you have major league stuff. Tim Redding has major league stuff.
And yes, judging him off his time in Houston isn’t really fair considering his injury problems. If you’re okay carrying Baek next year, and you admit that Redding is better, I’m not sure what your complaint here is either. I’m not giving Redding a 4 year contract. It’s about as low risk a free agent signing as you’ll ever find, and he’s perfectly capable of being an adequate fifth starter next year.
One thing I might change is finding a replacement for Soriano in the trade, and give him a shot for being in the rotation next year – failing that, providing a relief ace that Hargrove won’t ONLY use in save situations.
Idiot proofing the roster is fairly important if he’s going to be around in 2007.
I would also try and sign Randy Wolf to compete for the fourth spot in the rotation. I’ll admit that I’m ignorant on what he might possibly make next year though – It can’t be close to the $9 million he made in 2006 though, right?
One thing I might change is finding a replacement for Soriano in the trade, and give him a shot for being in the rotation next year – failing that, providing a relief ace that Hargrove won’t ONLY use in save situations.
You’re not getting Manny, or any other kind of star hitter, without giving up something of real value. A Reed/Cruceta package isn’t going to get you a whole lot.
I would also try and sign Randy Wolf to compete for the fourth spot in the rotation. I’ll admit that I’m ignorant on what he might possibly make next year though – It can’t be close to the $9 million he made in 2006 though, right?
There’s no point even bothering with those midlevel arms. They’re all going to be wildly overpaid. The middle tier of starting pitchers have become so wildly overpaid that it’s a giant waste of time to even go shopping in that neighborhood. Let them all sign with someone else for way too much money.
There’s no point even bothering with those midlevel arms. They’re all going to be wildly overpaid.
Because they’re overpaying for what are essentially security blankets, right?
Overpaying for elite arms is one thing…overpaying for journeymen arms is another. Better to go digging around and taking chances…particularly if you already have an elite arm like Felix (and if you have two like Matsuzaka….)
So what do the Mariners do if they don’t get Matsuzaka?
He will generate a lot of interest from other teams, not just the Yankees. If you believe some of the NY Media, they are already penciling Matsuzaka in as the ace of the Yankees’ staff for next year.
manny would never agree to becoming DH. he likes playing the OF and since he has the choice, he’ll continue to play the OF. (could we convert him to 1B, and leave ibanez in LF?)
oh, i should also say…i highly doubt the red sox would trade away manny ramirez- the face of their franchise, for only soriano, reed and cruceta. as you said yourself, reed and cruceta have no value themselves, and soriano isn’t nearly enough by himself, especially coming off injury.
the red sox can’t afford to lose manny, with no one in the organization coming close to replacing his bat. why trade manny and nab a carlos lee/alfonso soriano outside the organization when you already have manny within the organization??? and why should they, since he’s not even in his “asking for a trade” moods at the moment.
manny would never agree to becoming DH. he likes playing the OF and since he has the choice, he’ll continue to play the OF. (could we convert him to 1B, and leave ibanez in LF?)
Manny DH’d today, and he’d DH’d 249 games in his career coming into this season.
Manny was DH in 87 games in 2001 and 50 in 2002 (during which he broke his finger sliding into Dan Wilson and played only 127 games).
Given the state of his knee and hamstring, he’ll be glad to DH.
oh, i should also say…i highly doubt the red sox would trade away manny ramirez- the face of their franchise, for only soriano, reed and cruceta. as you said yourself, reed and cruceta have no value themselves, and soriano isn’t nearly enough by himself, especially coming off injury.
I didn’t say that, and it’s not true.
the red sox can’t afford to lose manny, with no one in the organization coming close to replacing his bat. why trade manny and nab a carlos lee/alfonso soriano outside the organization when you already have manny within the organization??? and why should they, since he’s not even in his “asking for a trade†moods at the moment.
He asked for a trade three weeks ago.
Also, capitalization makes reading comments a lot easier. It’s pretty easy to use the shift key.
You’re not getting Manny, or any other kind of star hitter, without giving up something of real value. A Reed/Cruceta package isn’t going to get you a whole lot.
Acknowledged. I don’t really pretend to know exactly what it would take, but I was suggesting some other piece – not just elminating part of your suggestion. Jones / Cruceta for Manny / $$$ or something to that effect perhaps? If you are locking up Ichiro for center, I assume you are looking at trading Jones eventually? (Or would you use him at a corner eventually? Move Ichiro back to right?)
Regarding Randy Wolf – he ~is~ coming off Tommy John surgery and didn’t really blow them away this year…but I do suppose it isn’t a great secret anymore that players coming back from TJ get better. He still could / should present some sort of value I’d think, but I could be wrong.
Dave,
Thanks for the post. Good stuff to think about. So if there’s less than a 10% chance that the team will trade Sexson to free up the cash necessary to make big changes, then in reality we must be looking at one attempt at a big move for pitching (Daisuke) combined with mid-level offensive changes like adding Cruz jr. to serve as the 4th outfielder and spell Snelling and Ibanez to DH?
Jones / Cruceta for Manny / $$$ or something to that effect perhaps? If you are locking up Ichiro for center, I assume you are looking at trading Jones eventually? (Or would you use him at a corner eventually? Move Ichiro back to right?)
You’d rather keep a reliever who we control for two more years than a 21-year-old with the potential to become an above average center fielder that we control for another six years? Really?
I have no interest in trading Adam Jones. This isn’t to say I wouldn’t trade him if I had to, but I see no reason to deal him just because Ichiro’s currently in center. He can spend 2007 in Tacoma refining his approach at the plate and his route running in the outfield, and when 2008 rolls around, I’m pretty sure we’ll have a spot for him. The organization isn’t exactly overflowing in outfielders as it is.
Regarding Randy Wolf – he ~is~ coming off Tommy John surgery and didn’t really blow them away this year…but I do suppose it isn’t a great secret anymore that players coming back from TJ get better. He still could / should present some sort of value I’d think, but I could be wrong.
At his best, pre-surgery, he was a flyball pitcher with average command and a problem with the home run ball. He really struggled throwing strikes this year, and he continued to give up home runs at a near record pace.
He’s a fourth starter, at best, even if he gets back to where he was pre-surgery. I’d argue that he’s not even better than Rodrigo Lopez, and I certainly don’t want to give him a multiyear, multimillion dollar deal.
oh, i should also say…i highly doubt the red sox would trade away manny ramirez- the face of their franchise, for only soriano, reed and crucet
Well, they were willing to let Manny walk for the price of a waiver claim (25K, I think) a couple years ago. Nobody took them up on it, because the contract was $Texas at the time. So I find it hard to believe they wouldn’t at least be willing to DISCUSS the trade, face of the franchise or not.
And Dave, my point is that I think the Mariner offense has room for growth beyond this year’s 750 runs, if you brought back all the same folks. Yeah, they were all healthy- but we REALLY got crappy production out of 22% of the lineup and the bench, and it was STILL a league-average offense- and you just replaced two replacement-level players (CF and DH) with Jim Edmonds (by swapping Ichiro into CF and pushing Edmonds to LF) and Manny Ramirez (by turning Ibanez into our 1B subbing for Sexson). Lopez, Doyle, Betancourt, Reed and Jones all STILL have room for growth as a group, even if the rest of the lineup is peaking or possibly about to slide back some.
All told, I still think that offense is pretty damn elite. The Yankees are better…but the Yankees ALSO only have one player worth a damn under 30 (Cano).
Thanks for the post. Good stuff to think about. So if there’s less than a 10% chance that the team will trade Sexson to free up the cash necessary to make big changes, then in reality we must be looking at one attempt at a big move for pitching (Daisuke) combined with mid-level offensive changes like adding Cruz jr. to serve as the 4th outfielder and spell Snelling and Ibanez to DH?
I’ll do a post in a few weeks on what I think the M’s will actually do. Right now, my guess is they make a run at Matsuzaka, trade Broussard, sign a midlevel backend starter, and pickup a veteran outfielder. But that’s all wild speculation, because they don’t even know what they’re going to do yet.
What about an all-glove, little-hit first-baseman so you have a ‘true’ one on the roster for late-inning duties, someone like Doug Mienke…? (I don’t really want to look his name up.)
All told, I still think that offense is pretty damn elite. The Yankees are better…but the Yankees ALSO only have one player worth a damn under 30 (Cano).
Yea, well, that was the goal. In case it hasn’t been obvious for the past few years, I believe that the best way to build a roster is around hitters, spending 65-70% of your payroll on position players. I like my suggested offense a lot too.
#37: You can’t afford that luxury with a 99 man bullpen that Hargrove needs.
What about an all-glove, little-hit first-baseman so you have a ‘true’ one on the roster for late-inning duties, someone like Doug Mienke…? (I don’t really want to look his name up.)
Morse could probably be something like that guy with an offseason of hard work and a lot of practice. He was badly miscast as a shortstop, but he’s more athletic than most first baseman. He won’t be as good as Mientkiwicz, but as a defensive replacement off the bench, the difference between the two is probably 2-3 runs, tops, over the course of a season. Morse is already here and makes the league minimum, and he’s a decade younger.
Here’s the question… last year everybody was pushing for the M’s to go out and get either Burnett or Millwood. Neither happened (thankfully…) and we ended up with Washburn.
What does GM Dave do if the M’s put up a posting fee of 25 million, the Yankees swoop in and pay more, and Matsuzaka becomes a Yankee?
Dave, Over the course of a season, how many defensive runs is an elite defensive first baseman worth when you compare him to a Sexson (who I know is gone in your scenario)?
How many defensive runs is he worth when he plays only in high-leverage late innings situations?
Also, Ortiz is the new face of the Sox, not Manny.
Just a hunch, somewhat related. I feel this is the offseason that the BoSox finally do deal Manny. Everything went wrong in those last few months and it truly is time to re-tool in Boston.
What does GM Dave do if the M’s put up a posting fee of 25 million, the Yankees swoop in and pay more, and Matsuzaka becomes a Yankee?
Cry.
Then, explore the trade market even further. I’m just not interested in this crop of free agent pitchers. As a group, they suck, and they’re going to be paid like they’re actually good.
Dave, Over the course of a season, how many defensive runs is an elite defensive first baseman worth when you compare him to a Sexson (who I know is gone in your scenario)?
If both are full time starters, probably 15-20 runs. Sexson’s not very good with the glove, and guys like Teixeira are generally 10-15 runs above average.
How many defensive runs is he worth when he plays only in high-leverage late innings situations?
A couple, probably. Not many.
Dave,
Do you think the M’s will be falling over themselves to sign Schmidt, as many of the announcers have hinted?
How many years would the M’s get out of Schmidt, and how disasterous would the contract be?
Dave,
What do you think of Greg Zaun as a back-up for next season? I’m pretty sure he is a FA. He is still a decent bat (100X better than Rivera) and is well respected for his defense (at least that is what i’ve heard).
Do you think the M’s will be falling over themselves to sign Schmidt, as many of the announcers have hinted?
I don’t know. They don’t know. It’s too early to know what the team will try and do.
How many years would the M’s get out of Schmidt, and how disasterous would the contract be?
In this market, he’s going to get something like 4/48 or 5/60. And, since pitchers are notoriously fickle, it’s impossible to say for sure how he’ll perform, but I will say this; if you sign 10 Jason Schmidt’s to that contract, 8 of them will be a budget-killing bust. It’s a bad bet.
What do you think of Greg Zaun as a back-up for next season? I’m pretty sure he is a FA. He is still a decent bat (100X better than Rivera) and is well respected for his defense (at least that is what i’ve heard).
Too expensive, wants to start.
Which starters would you target in the trade market if the M’s miss on Matsuzaka?
Kind of a small issue, but I think I would rather have Green than Fruto. Fruto seems to have the better stuff, but his control has not been very good. Now Green certianly hasn’t been a control freak, but he is groundball pitcher will better control.
I think Green is a bit more polished and better suited for the bigs. Just my opinion.
sorry, but just NO none of that is going to happen
(Okay…after an hour and a half…)
Great job, Dave.
1) Get rid of Bloomquist. If he’s here, Grover will find a way to get his bat in the line-up more than once a week.
2) I don’t understand everyone’s reluctance with Ramirez. He is ridiculously underrated. If he had Derek Jeter’s smile and charm, he’d be seen for what he is: one of the elite hitters of all time. He is so much better than Ortiz (who is, by the way, the actual face of the franchise) that it makes me sick to hear the constant blinded comparisons. Whose OPS is higher every year? Who protects who in the batting order? Who has dominated for a decade?
But no, it’s always “Manny can’t field”. “Manny isn’t as clutch.” Tell me, nay-sayers, if Manny is as bad in the field as it seems (and he probably is), how much worse much Ortiz be out there? Yet fielding is somehow a strike against him? And does anyone care that Manny hits for a better average with runners on? If people were concerned about his health, I’d understand – that’s a legitimate concern. But when healthy, there isn’t a better right hander in the American League not named Rodriguez.
Anyway, ManRam should be a monster for two or three more years if he can get healthy. And anyone who claims “his kind of power” will be nullified by Safeco, perhaps you need a lesson on bat speed and ball flight. His dingers don’t barely clear fences. He’s got Sexson’s power with a ridiculously better eye. And he’s obtainable, simply because he isn’t a fan favorite (again, with Jeter’s smile and charm, he’d be the Boston version of Ibanez). I’ll take his next three years of production over Sexson’s for for five million a season.
3) Keep Broussard. It wouldn’t be prudent to unload him after his stock has droppped over the past few months.
Yes, it is bold. Perhaps too bold. I realize this is still Dave’s World, despite the disclaimer that these trades are at least probable. The problem I have is the admitted probability. Sexson to the Giants is less then a 10% chance of occurring; whether that is due to the Mariners FO or the Giants is relevant. One of the best ways to propose a plan is to find your own holes in it. Sometimes we write things down then take a step back and look and say “oh this will just not fucking happen.”
I guess my point is, I’d like to hear your holes in the deal. The Sexson part was already explained, with a slim chance of even happening.
Now some superficial criticisms / praises.
Ichiro getting extension: Necessary and appropriate. Keep him happy. Keep him from having to think about where he’s going to play in 2008. Keep the core of the team in tact. Don’t risk losing one of the, now, best CF’ers in the game.
Getting Matsuzaka anyway possible: Should be, in the words of The Master Control Program – “Priority One”.
Trading away Sexson: I agree with this, as I, and many others, did in the previous discussion thread about “who to trade”. Perhaps a Plan B is in order, tho. The most reasonable target teams seem to be the Giants and Orioles. The Giants are more likely to take on most / all of Sexson’s contract. But with the recent steroid allegations against two prominant Orioles players, perhaps Baltimore will also be more willing to talk about picking up a big MOTO bat. Baltimore is not shy about putting forth moolah, especially since they play in the division where you pay to play and make a lot of money doing it anyhow. Boston is another idea. Their first base situation is odd right now, and it might be better to trade Sexson + Soriano for Ramirez straight up, trading contracts, etc. The trading of the contracts would be almost a wash with what Soriano would probably get in arbitration, and get a very productive bat for exactly the reasons you laid out about Lee and Soriano. It should be expected that the Sox are going to want to add offense to counter “that lineup” of the Yankees.
Still, this is the right idea, as you said, even if the names / places are negotiable.
Ben Broussard and Julio Mateo traded: Somehow this seem like a weak idea. I don’t know what value Baltimore has on Jim Johnson, but Broussard is a pretty good fit for that lineup and that park and could play first base, platooning with one of their lefty mashers. It’s Julio Mateo I wonder about. Broussard’s value should be obvious, but Mateo has none. Why not just release him and give up one of our “maybe” minor leaguers? Andrew Barb?
Trading for Manny: This makes more sense then people realize. Ramirez is in that “class” of hitters that doesn’t seem to be having a problem aging gracefully. He’s almost a certified HOFer offensive weapon we haven’t had since Alex Rodriguez left. Furthurmore, I haven’t heard anything about his relationship with Hargrove being bad, since they were both Indians back when Cleveland was last successful. Francona seems to rub Ramirez the wrong way, or perhaps it’s just Boston in general. I think Manny wants to be Manny elsewhere, but would that spacious SafeCo Field be able to entice him? Would a comradery with a former manager be enough? I’m sure Boston would take the deal, the question is more Manny’s whims.
Trading for Edmonds: I personally think it’s giving up too much for an aging veteran who, if his option is picked up before the trade, would cost quite a bit. I like Jim Edmonds, and his relationship with Bavasi precusors his comments about wanting to play in Seattle. Wlad The Destroyer has sort of lost favor with a lot of people, and we have about 5 guys down in A ball just like him (Halman, Dotel, Pagueno, Liddi, etc), so he’s very expendable and should be dangled as trade bait. Removes a man from the 40-man roster, too, which helps. Justin Thomas may not amount to much, but with our farm system chock full of “potential” arms, Thomas is expendable too. Again, I like the idea of dangling out middle class prospects for a potential immediate help, just not sure about getting someone as age’d as Edmonds. I have no real alternative, tho.
Trade for Angel Guzman: Getting rid of Woods alone would make us doing this trade worth it. Getting something back of interesting value is gravy. I know you’re sour on Mike Wilson, but we can always dangle him out there later if he doesn’t overcome the higher level of play @ Tacoma.
Roster construction fillers / utility guys / 5th men: I’m not a Rodrigo Lopez fan, but as a 4th / 5th man, meh. It’s innings eating. I’m curious to get Cruz back in Seattle again. I didn’t want to lose him in the first place.
Raul to 1st: Until you’d said that, I hadn’t even noticed that we had no first basemen. Raul HAS played first before, and the idea was he, Sexson, and Carlos Delgado would rotate around DH’ing and playing 1st base, with Ibanez spelling LF at times. Of course, Delgado didn’t happen, and Ibanez hasn’t played a hole lot at first base since. But he has been trained for it. A little more seasoning and this would work fine. It keeps Ibanez happy playing the field, and you get someone who can man the bag.
Since this isn’t a Rosterbation thread (or is it?) I wont throw out my ideas, just that I like the ideas, not so much the names. I do think it’s a good plan and would love to see it in full effect. But, like many plans, if it doesn’t ALL get done, it looks a lot worse. Do you have some alternatives, “just in case”, Dave?
I see Doyle is now going by his last name, but I wonder where the real Doyle has gone. He hit well in past years, but this year he didn’t do that well in Seattle, and he hit even less well in Tacoma. Its hard to dismiss his stats as a small sample because when you put the number of ABs together from Tacoma and Seattle the sample is not that small. I agree his performanace from earlier years and his low salary suggest he’s still a good bet to contribute much more value than his cost, but do you have any worries based upon what we saw from him this year, or theories about his disappointing numbers? You didn’t really comment on what you might expect from him…
Dave,
Interesting ideas.
One question. Don’t you think that the return for Sexson seems very low? I would expect that some other team would be willing to beat that package to get Sexson, especially since there are really only two power hitters on the free agent market this year (Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano). San Francisco is an option, but they don’t seem like a terribly good match for the M’s. Detroit is supposed to be looking for help at 1B. The Orioles are looking to make a splash this offseason, and have nobody at 1B. I have heard about how the Red Sox may be looking for a power hitter at 1B so they can move Youkilis back to 3B. The Astros could use a lot of help at offense, and Berkman can move to one of the OF corners. The Pirates may be looking to add payroll and they definitely need help on offense. And, if the M’s want to do something bold, they could always talk to the Angels, who have publically vowed to do something bold.
Really, any of those clubs seem like a better match than the Giants.
If the M’s were willing to eat a bit of Sexson’s contract to even up the $$$/years, basically to un-backload the contract, it would make him even more tradable. If it means getting back a player on a minimum contract who could actually contribute immediately, it would be worth eating $2 mil/year for two years. Consider it a signing bonus to acquire a major leauge ready prospect.
Schierholtz and Martinez-Esteve seem like too little. Schierholtz is B- prospect at best. Martinez-Esteve is a good hitter who has zero defensive value and serious problems staying on the field. I have also read that he has notable problems staying in shape and attitude issues.
Hell, if the objective of moving Sexson is to essentially replace him with Ramirez, why not just see if Boston would be interested in him? Sexson, Soriano and Reed for Ramirez. I think that is actually a better trade for the Red Sox. They get a guy who can close (and the ability to move Papelbon to the rotation), a starting CFer, a guy at 1B with power, Youkilis at his natural position, and some money left over.
I think Manny Ramirez is just what this franchise needs to become one of the upper-echelon teams in the league. As much value David Ortiz is to the Red Sox franchise, Ramirez is the straw that stirs the drink over there (like you said, Hooligan), and would do the same here. And I think Mike Hargrove has a little experience with utilizing this guy, too.
Setting aside the statistical superiority of Ramirez over someone like Richie Sexson, Manny would be the focal point of our offense. He never really slumps, and can certainly lead by his example, especially when the rest of our team can’t buy a hit. All that FAR outweighs all that “Manny being Manny” crap. This is a great idea by Dave, because we lose players in the trade that have already been replaced within the orginization anyway, and a good chunk of Ramirez’s salary (Sexson) would have been dealt away. This is a no-brainer.
ave, on last question: Is Mike Morse salvagable as being a full-time third baseman? I know he can’t hit that well, and he’d never push Beltre out of town, but with all the time he’s logged in the outfield, I wonder if the former shortstop (with a great arm) has truly gotten a chance at the corner? If he already has failed down in Tacoma there, then never mind.
Well, Dave’s plan states that the ideas are more important then the names. So we’re mixing nuts here. Yes, trading Sexson makes a TON of sense in helping the Mariners this offseason. Where, for who, etc, are irrelevant. Getting him out there and getting something back for him is key, even if what we get back is simply not having 28 million to cover over the next two years.
“Yes, trading Sexson makes a TON of sense in helping the Mariners this offseason. Where, for who, etc, are irrelevant. Getting him out there and getting something back for him is key, even if what we get back is simply not having 28 million to cover over the next two years.”
I really disagree with this. The M’s offense is a weakness right now. Selling off Sexson just to move his payroll is taking a step backward. If the M’s move Sexson in order to clear payroll for another big move (like Ramirez) that is one thing. But right now, he is one of the biggest contributors to our offense. You can’t just remove him without it being a part of a good plan. Since the free agent market is so weak, the M’s are going to have to be creative if they do move him.
To me, that Manny deal is a steal, and I’d do it from the M’s perspective in a heartbeat. Of course, I’m big on the talent pyramid and think that it’s worthwhile to fork over lots of money to guys at the top.
Also, with a second true CF on the roster (Edmonds), I think it’s unlikely we’d see much of Bloomquist in CF, so that would be good.
In all, I really like the thought behind the moves–spend more money on hitters, as they are more predictable, stick with the cheap, homegrown bullpen, take some fliers on the back-end of the rotation, and improve the OF defense.
One question: Can you think of any starters who might contribute that you could bring in as a NRI?
This is a fantastic plan, but roster-building through trades in advance is really tricky stuff. I don’t think you’d be able to get both Edmonds -and- Ramirez (perhaps that’s a random shot of pessimism rather than being completely rational, though).
So out of those two impact bats, who would you rather have on the team? I think Edmonds. I’m not really concerned about his reported desire or lack thereof, he won’t cause a positional reshuffling, and every time I see his swing, it makes me drool for its possibilities in Safeco (Adam Dunn does, too). If, for example, you kept Sexson and didn’t get Manny, how would you feel about the M’s chances?
Although I think these could be good moves (some of them obviously would be), I don’t really like the end roster construction. I know you’re smarter than me but these are my feelings about it:
1 – I think you’re underestimating the frailness of your players. There’s no way Snelling, Edmonds, and Manny all play near-full seasons, and I think there’s a good chance all three of them will be out a melon-sized chunk of the season next year. Other normally healthy players will surely have random injuries next year as well.
2 – When any of these guys go down, Willie Bloomquist (or worse) is likely to fill in quite a bit.
3 – I can’t agree with trading Soriano for more than a replacement of Sexson with Manny (for $5mil more). This is assuming Soriano is likely to get his audition to start games. Even the 2002 22yo version of Soriano starting games (8 GS) will likely be better than at least one of your starters, and his upside is much much sweeter.
Since the free agent market is so weak, the M’s are going to have to be creative if they do move [Sexson].
Even if the Mariners can’t land Manny, just getting Edmonds would likely replace Sexson’s production. Just this year, Sexson’s EQA was .287 and Edmonds’ EQA was .284 (and EQA is park-adjusted). So Sexson/Ibanez was about the same offensive tandem in ‘06 as Ibanez/Edmonds, and Ibanez/Edmonds is a big upgrade on defense, plus Edmonds is a better fit for the park.
Richie’s 22.0 VORP was 16th amongst MLB 1st basemen. His offensive contributions shouldn’t be that difficult to replace if you are even mildly creative.
I have a feeling that Sabean won’t part with Esteves. He’s been touted pretty highly in the organization and apparently has been tearing the cover off the ball during the last part of the season.
I posted a thread a week or so ago on PI about sending Sexson to SF straight up for Jonathan Sanchez. Any thoughts?
Yes, it is bold. Perhaps too bold. I realize this is still Dave’s World, despite the disclaimer that these trades are at least probable. The problem I have is the admitted probability. Sexson to the Giants is less then a 10% chance of occurring; whether that is due to the Mariners FO or the Giants is relevant.
If I did what you’re suggesting, it would be “Dave’s Plan While Adjusting For Organizational Biases, So It’s Not Really Dave’s Plan.”
The fact that the M’s are unlikely to have the stones to trade Sexson shouldn’t mean that I, therefore, should not suggest trading him as a viable strategy. The organizational fear of letting someone go and having them succeed elsewhere isn’t something that I’m particularly worried about, and as such, I’d make a lot of different moves than the M’s would.
I see Doyle is now going by his last name, but I wonder where the real Doyle has gone.
There’s zero reason to worry about his offensive abilities. If he’s healthy, he’ll hit .300/.380/.470 until he retires.
One question. Don’t you think that the return for Sexson seems very low?
No. I think you probably overvalue Sexson, relative to major league GMs.
If the M’s were willing to eat a bit of Sexson’s contract to even up the $$$/years, basically to un-backload the contract, it would make him even more tradable.
And it would make this roster impossible, considering I’m right up against the budget ceiling, and I had to get the Cardinals to kick in $2 million just to be able to afford Jim Edmonds. And I’m counting on Matsuzaka signing a deal that is below what most people expect him to get, and Boras to agree to structure it in a way that doesn’t pay him huge money in 2007.
Unless the Mariners approve a payroll increase, money isn’t something the M’s have a lot of to be throwing around. You can argue all you want that the M’s payroll should be higher, and I’ll agree with you, but for this purpose, it’s all irrelevant.
Sexson, Soriano and Reed for Ramirez. I think that is actually a better trade for the Red Sox. They get a guy who can close (and the ability to move Papelbon to the rotation), a starting CFer, a guy at 1B with power, Youkilis at his natural position, and some money left over.
They have Mike Lowell at third, so moving Youkilis back necessitates that Lowell sits, which isn’t likely. And they have Eric Hinske under contract for next year, and honestly, he’s about as good as Sexson is, and making 1/3 of the money.
Dave, on last question: Is Mike Morse salvagable as being a full-time third baseman?
I don’t think he’s salvagable as a full-time anything. He’s a role player, a mediocre reserve, who has enough bat to stick in the majors as a backup but not enough of anything to play regularly for a major league club.
The M’s offense is a weakness right now.
The offense is better than the rotation.
Selling off Sexson just to move his payroll is taking a step backward. If the M’s move Sexson in order to clear payroll for another big move (like Ramirez) that is one thing.
No one is advocating dumping him to make sure the Mariners ownership gets a larger bonus next year. The whole point of dumping Sexson is to clear room for another acquisition. I’m pretty sure everyone agrees on that, and we’ve all been quite clear about that.
So out of those two impact bats, who would you rather have on the team?
Manny. Edmonds is a nice fit for a lot of reasons, but he’s not going to give you so much more than Broussard will that it takes the offense to another level. Ramirez is the kind of guy who changes the whole shape of this offense. The M’s don’t have anyone that teams need to pitch around, and Ramirez would be that guy.
#45: How many defensive runs is he worth when he plays only in high-leverage late innings situations?
A couple, probably. Not many
So, why should the M’s waste time on that experiment with Morse and (if he succeeds) burn a roster spot for such a marginal improvement?
Mientkiewicz did not clog up the Red Sox roster for all of 2004; he came in at the trade deadline.
The bad thing about Edmonds and Manny is while your adding a bit of walks (Edmonds) your also getting a bunch more strikeouts with both of them. And I don’t know if this has been mentioned but Edmonds is 36 not 38 Dave.
I think you’re underestimating the frailness of your players.
Considering I wrote in the post that it was the major weakness of this roster, I doubt it. I probably just value ironmen less than you do. You can win a pennant with great players who miss 20 to 30 games a year. It’s hard to win a pennant with mediocre players who never take a day off.
When any of these guys go down, Willie Bloomquist (or worse) is likely to fill in quite a bit.
Not necessarily. Jose Cruz Jr is the fourth outfielder, so he plays if Edmonds or Snelling get hurt. In this scenario, Adam Jones is still in the organization, sitting in Tacoma, so he’s an option as well.
With Raul at first base, he’s also an option to move back to the outfield if one of the OFs get hurt, and it’s always a piece of cake to find a first baseman during the season. If Snelling gets hurt again (knock on wood) for an extended period of time, and Cruz Jr is sucking eggs, and Adam Jones still hasn’t figured out how to hit a curveball, it’d take about 10 minutes to go trade for Sean Casey or someone of that ilk and stick Ibanez back in the outfield.
The roster has options. It doesn’t have to be all Willie, all the time.
I can’t agree with trading Soriano for more than a replacement of Sexson with Manny (for $5mil more). This is assuming Soriano is likely to get his audition to start games. Even the 2002 22yo version of Soriano starting games (8 GS) will likely be better than at least one of your starters, and his upside is much much sweeter
2002 Rafael Soriano, as a starter: 3.04 BB/9, 6.08 K/9, 0.58 GB/FB, 5.06 FIP.
2006 Rodrigo Lopez: 2.81 BB/9, 6.48 K/9, 1.21 GB/FB, 4.96 FIP
So your last comment is factually untrue. And as much as I support the Soriano to the rotation movement, I think people overestimate how good he’ll be as a starter. The velocity drop is going to take a pretty big bite out of his K rate, which is his big weapon. As a starter, Soriano’s probably a 4.30 to 4.60 ERA guy. A solid mid to back end guy, kind of our version of Ervin Santana.
But we only have him for two more years, and if he’s as good as you hope in the rotation next year, he’s going to be awfully expensive in 2008. His days as any kind of bargain are over.
I have a feeling that Sabean won’t part with Esteves. He’s been touted pretty highly in the organization and apparently has been tearing the cover off the ball during the last part of the season.
He’s a terrible, terrible defensive outfielder. There’s a reason I listed him as a DH in the post. He needs to move to the AL. And, the last game he played this season was May 06, due to injury, so no, he hasn’t been tearing the cover off the ball lately.
I posted a thread a week or so ago on PI about sending Sexson to SF straight up for Jonathan Sanchez. Any thoughts?
The Giants wouldn’t make that trade.
#54: Furthurmore, I haven’t heard anything about his relationship with Hargrove being bad, since they were both Indians back when Cleveland was last successful.
We heard last offseason that Manny’s agent told the Red Sox he would accept a trade to Seattle precisely because he’d like to play for Hargrove again.
(One of the USSM authors wrote a piece suggesting that since Bavasi was looking for LH sock, Manny should offer to bat left handed for Seattle.)
Bypassing the pie-in-the-sky notion that the Front Office is willing to make more than ONE big move (and I know were having fun here), I see problems with both the propositions that I feel most snootily knowledgable about, Ichiro and Daisuke.
I really do wonder whether the Lions will offer up Matsuzaka this year, please remember that they do not have to, and that “smart” in Japan, like Lake Wobegon, don’t count for that much. Also, $25 million only gves us a decent shot, no more.
The other point is that the sugnals I pick up from Ichiro when he talks about the team is that he will not resign with a loser, which absolutely means he will never sign for a Hargrove-led club.
An enjoyable read, though.
Great ideas, Dave. As you’ve concurred, such moves are unlikely, but that’s a pretty good, creative reconstruction of the roster.
My grain of salt concerns (and even concerns is a strong word): I wonder if the Bosox would want more for Manny than what you offered, maybe another ML quality piece. What’s offered is a lot, but even with Boston wanting to dump that contract, they may want more than (keep in mind these are perceptions and of course could be inaccurate) a future closer coming off a bad shot to the head, a young, incomplete CF (when they already have one) and a AAAA strikeout pitcher with spotty command.
Also, Fruto over Woods? Woods isn’t great and his command is off and on, but as a swingman who has starting experience and has shown he can be more capable in stretches than Fruto, who has even spottier command and faulty mechanics to match, one would think Fruto would make the bigger risk.
So, why should the M’s waste time on that experiment with Morse and (if he succeeds) burn a roster spot for such a marginal improvement?
Because you have to a backup first baseman on the roster, and the organization isn’t exactly flowing with options.
Dave – What kind of package would the M’s have to put together to land Adam Dunn? Would the Reds even consider trading him?
I wonder if the Bosox would want more for Manny than what you offered, maybe another ML quality piece.
I don’t think they’ll get a better offer than this, so if they have any desire to “retool”, like everyone in Boston is talking about, than this would probably be their best option. Look at what Philly got for Abreu. This is twenty times better than that.
Also, Fruto over Woods?
Woods was traded to Chicago in the Angel Guzman deal. But yes, even if he was still here, Fruto over Woods. Jake Woods sucks.
A nice plan; were that it came from Bavasi’s mouth. I wish that they’d do half of this.
I agree with the suggrestion of trying to get Manny for Sexson, adding in Soriano or anyone else who fits the expendable description. Then, we only have to pull off one big trade, not two.
I do have a twinge of fear about Manny being injured and/or a disruption as a head case. But the guy can be described in two words that I haven’t heard said of a Mariner other than Edgar: professional hitter.
Dave – What kind of package would the M’s have to put together to land Adam Dunn? Would the Reds even consider trading him?
A big one, but yes, he’ll be available this offseason. The problem with Dunn is threefold:
1. He’s a free agent at years end and already has very old player skills. If you don’t give him an extension as part of the trade, then you risk giving up the farm for a one year rental, but he’s not exactly the kind of guy you want to be committing to long term, either.
2. His defense sucks. At every position. He’s one of the worst outfielders in baseball. He’s one of the worst first baseman in baseball. He’s just terrible defensively.
3. If you don’t trade Sexson and bring in Dunn, the casual fans will kill themselves over all the strikeouts. I know that strikeouts aren’t as bad as most fans think, but I don’t think I really want those two hitting back-to-back in the order.
Because you have to a backup first baseman on the roster, and the organization isn’t exactly flowing with options.
So Morse is basically a warm body, and you’d flush him once he became arb-eligible?
If I did what you’re suggesting, it would be “Dave’s Plan While Adjusting For Organizational Biases, So It’s Not Really Dave’s Plan.â€
That came out wrong. What I meant was that you were making a statement that the Mariners FO moving Sexson is a low probability. I was wondering what your own low probabilities were and if you had contingency plans for them. Again, I know this is Dave’s World, but it’s the probabilities that the other clubs would accept your offers I was more interested in then “if you were the Mariners FO, complete with lack of spine.”
The fact that the M’s are unlikely to have the stones to trade Sexson shouldn’t mean that I, therefore, should not suggest trading him as a viable strategy. The organizational fear of letting someone go and having them succeed elsewhere isn’t something that I’m particularly worried about, and as such, I’d make a lot of different moves than the M’s would.
Actually, I think it’s better to stay within the whims of the organizations FO. I mean, “if you were the GM” is all well and good, but the GM has some limitations. Obviously you paid attention to those with situations like Ichiro, not trading Ibanez, etc, but did you take everything Mariners FO related into account with this plan? I’m just curious as to how well you’ve thought this out and to what limits and levels, or would you have to do some schmoozing to get some stuff done.
Another part of what I was asking was contingency plans. Last offseason Bill talked about “things not falling into place which impacted other moves” and “not wanting to blow holes in one thing to fill a hole in another” (at the time referring to trading away bullpen arms for whatever). Bill didn’t seem to have a lot of 2nd and 3rd moves which would still allow him to make a majority of his plan possible.
I do know that, based on past posts I’ve read, you will throw out a post that is “What I would do and what the M’s FO WILL do” and probably another one about who the M’s targets are, but I’m more curious about yours, since this is your plan.
I’d flush him right now.
The M’s offense is a weakness right now.
Apparently this isn’t sinking in, so let me restate this: the Mariners had an average offense in the AL on the road (6th in runs scored, 7th in OPS).
The reason you think the M’s offense sucks is because Safeco depresses run scoring so much that it’s ridiculous (most teams GAIN offense athom, the M’s lost over 10% of theirs), but really, They. Were. OK.
That’s with the M’s having the worst CF and DH in the league. That means that the other 78% of the team had to collectively be nicely ABOVE average to make the team average. We just moved a Hall of Fame-caliber player into CF, so one of those problems is fixed, and Dave just replaced the other problem with the best hitter on the planet not named Pujols or Rodriguez. Oh, and he added Jim Edmonds, to boot.
My guess is in a neutral park, and staying healthy, Dave’s lineup scores over 850 runs without breaking much of a sweat, and if the right things happen (Doyle and Lopez bust out), goes over 900. The CURRENT 2006 lineup (bad DH/CF) prorates to a touch over 800 runs with their road performance, and with anyone halfway competent in those two spots it would be at 820-830.
The rotation, OTOH… well, the M’s gave up 420 runs in 81 road games. You aren’t winning a pennant with a pitching staff that gives up 5.2 runs a game in neutral parks, unless you’re going to score a thousand runs (the Pythag winning percentage for a split of 1000 runs scored to 840 runs allowed is about .586, working out to 95 games). Our pitching was dead last in the division in road games (even accounting for the fact that the other AL West teams get games at Safeco that we don’t).
So, to sum up: offense- not a real weakness or strength yet, but rather easily fixed to be a strength. Pitching, big weakness. Safeco obscures that and makes you think the pitching’s better than it is and the offense is worse than it is.
Dave is kind of playing both sides of the coin here- seriously amping up the offense into overdrive because you can get offense cheaper right now than paying eleventy billion dollars to Ted Lilly and Barry Zito, adding a touch of defense, importing Matsuzaka and hoping Felix goes from being a 4.50 ERA pitcher to a 3.50 ERA pitcher to improve the top of the rotation, and using cheap decent options on the backend. If it worked out like I think it might, you’d get a club that was more offense-oriented (like the 90’s Mariners or Indians, or the 02-05 Cardinals), but good enough to win 90-95.
So Morse is basically a warm body, and you’d flush him once he became arb-eligible?
Yep.
Again, I know this is Dave’s World, but it’s the probabilities that the other clubs would accept your offers I was more interested in…
Guzman deal: 90%
Sexson deal: 80%
Broussard deal: 75%
Ramirez deal: 60%
Edmonds deal: 50%
I’m just curious as to how well you’ve thought this out and to what limits and levels, or would you have to do some schmoozing to get some stuff done.
I’ve been working on this post for about a month. I wrote it last week. I’ve talked to probably 30 people about it, running ideas past people and getting input from folks with differing viewpoints. So, I’d say I’ve thought it out pretty well.
Another part of what I was asking was contingency plans.
I basically built four different offseason plans, and decided this is the one I liked the most, so this is the one I put up. But I have an offseason plan that includes trading Ichiro and almost rebuilding the offense completely, another one that has Adam Dunn as the main offensive acquisition, and one that has Todd Helton as the big bat trade target. The plan that I posted, though, is my favorite, so that’s the one I decided to run on the site.
Again, Dave, good stuff, and thanks.
Re 80:
I’m satisfied. That’s pretty much the answers I was looking for. Except one:
Is this a rosterbation thread or not? Because I can practically feel AK1984’s “hot stove” burning, if you catch my drift, and it’s a constructgasm I am not sure I want to be near.
flush [Morse] once he became arb-eligible?
Who have we non-tendered lately? Raul, but that was six years ago. Charles Gipson was four years ago. Lately we seem to offer multiyear contracts to replacement level players instead (I’m thinking of Bloomquist and Mateo).
I think flushing replacement-level players when they got to arb eligibility was something Gillick did better than Bavasi.
Is this a rosterbation thread or not?
Kind of. I’m still going to delete AK’s ridiculous 842 line posts that take up 90% of the page where he fills out the entire 40 man roster and a couple of minor league levels just to boot, but if someone wants to say “don’t trade for Manny, trade for Dunn, and here’s why”, that’s fine.
This thread is for the discussion of offseason ideas. Within reason, though.
Dave,
You totally misunderstood nearly everything I said.
I regards to moving Sexson just to move him, I was responding to a comment (#58) that said that getting the money off the payroll would be sufficient in and of itself. My point was, you have to have a pretty damn good plan to use that money, becasue (in my opinion) there aren’t any impact bats available in free agency this year that would be good signings. Nobody was insinuating that the money would just be cut from the budget.
The problem with a salary dump to free up money is that you have to know how you are going to spend that money. Part of the problem with your plan is that it would necessitate coordinating several moves at once: if you trade Sexson for two middling prospects, and can’t pull of the Ramirez deal, you are SOL. You have to replace that offense, and, hopefully, add more. If one thing falls through, you end up in a bidding war with Baltimore for Alfonso Soriano.
Second, when I suggested including money with Sexson to improve the package, I was not assuming making every other move that you suggested. If you are getting a player back who actually goes onto the 25-man roster, then you essentially eliminate one of your expenditures (say…Rodrigo Lopez). For instance, trade Sexson and cash to Detriot for Humberto Sanchez and two other lower-level prospects. Sanchez is the M’s 4th starter. Or trade him for a guy with ML experience. To Baltimore for Daniel Cabrera. If all you can get for him is Nate Schierholtz and Eddy Martinez-Esteve, then keep him. But I don’t think that will be the case.
Third, just because the rotation is a bigger mess than the offense doesn’t mean that the offense is not a weakness. Look at how the M’s offense compares to the rest of the league. Obviously, you recognize this, because your offseason plan includes a major makeover of the offense.
Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic. Seriously. You can’t actually believe that. Sexson may have had a slow start this season, but that comp is ludicrous.
I really think that your are undervaluing Sexson. With the numbers that are being thrown around for Lee and Soriano, I think that Sexson for 2 years/24 million would be a real attractive option for a lot of clubs. You yourself said the exact same thing. If I were Bavasi, I would approach trade talks as if Sexson is a good bet to match his 2005 numbers. If other clubs want to get him for nearly nothing, and essentially just take on his contract, then the M’s should just keep him for another year and cross their fingers. At the very least, I would be looking for something useful back, even if it meant taking on payroll in return. There are more ways to trade a guy like Sexson than a simple salary dump. There just aren’t that many guys with 40-HR power available this offseason.
I also think that you are underestimating the bidding for Manny Ramirez. Lots of teams would love to add a guy like him. There is a ton of money floating around the league. I would be amazed if another club couldn’t better a package of Soriano, Reed, and Cruceta for Ramirez, even with his albatross contract. The Angels could blow that out of the water. So could the Tigers. Both have pitching and/or prospects to offer, and both need offense.
In general, I think that you are underestimating the value that teams place on veteran power hitters. Also, I think that you are underestimating teams’ willingness to take on contracts like these. The 5-year contract is back. Teams have money to burn. Regardless of whether it is a good idea or not, clubs are willing to pay out the nose for established middle of the order players. I think we are going to see a whole new level of idiocy this offseason. In that type of environment, Sexson’s contract will look like a bargain.
So what exactly are the chances of Gil Meche coming back? Is the front office pretty much set on letting him walk, or will they offer a small 2yr/12mil type deal and see if he bites?
It seems like everyone in the M’s blogosphere assumes (or knows) that he won’t be back in 2007, is this a safe assumption to make?
I regards to moving Sexson just to move him, I was responding to a comment (#58) that said that getting the money off the payroll would be sufficient in and of itself.
Well, since I didn’t bother to post what I would do with the freed up money, insinuating that it would just be a roster dump is an acceptable conclusion to what I said. If one doesn’t clarify oneself, assumptions are fair game.
Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic. Seriously.
I wouldn’t say “idiotic”, but I think it does ignore Eric Hinske’s obvious platoon splits.
Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic.
Not that Dave needs my help, but I don’t think he meant that at all. From where I sit, I see that Eric Hinske has about 70-80% of the value of Sexson, and 1/3 the price. Considering who else they have on their roster (Ortiz, Lowell, Youkilis), I don’t see a huge need for Boston to trade for Big Sexy. But I’m sure there are a few other teams that would….
So what exactly are the chances of Gil Meche coming back? Is the front office pretty much set on letting him walk, or will they offer a small 2yr/12mil type deal and see if he bites?
Based on both Bill Bavasi’s comments and Howard Lincoln’s comments, I’d say less then a 5% chance. There’s always a chance that they keep him on a low risk, cheap contract. But Gil wouldn’t go for that. I think both sides basically don’t want to bother. I’m sure they’ll go through the motions in order for the Mariners to pick up a supplemental draft pick from whomever signs him, but retaining him is not their plan.
#85: Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic.
He said: “And they have Eric Hinske under contract for next year, and honestly, he’s about as good as Sexson is, and making 1/3 of the money.”
Look at the EqA’s at baseballprospectus.com and see just how much better Sexson is by that measure.
I can answer that one, peon though I am: no, it isn’t. This is a thread to discuss Dave’s plan, not to allow others who have neither Dave’s wits nor his connections to post their own half-baked concoctions.
Look at the EqA’s at baseballprospectus.com and see just how much better Sexson is by that measure.
Actually I agree with Jerry that Hinske isn’t close to Sexson’s offensive value. Hinske’s overall value might be equal to Sexson’s if you factor in defense and being cheaper, but offensively Hinske is a nightmare against lefties. He’s a platoon vs. righties and not quite on the same level as Broussard.
That was of course in response to #82.
91, see 84. Speculate within reason. I’m fine with that.
I regards to moving Sexson just to move him, I was responding to a comment (#58) that said that getting the money off the payroll would be sufficient in and of itself. My point was, you have to have a pretty damn good plan to use that money, becasue (in my opinion) there aren’t any impact bats available in free agency this year that would be good signings. Nobody was insinuating that the money would just be cut from the budget.
And he was responding to your comment that the M’s should have to get something more than two midlevel prospects for Richie. His response, and one I agree with, is that moving Sexson’s contract is good enough to take a deal that doesn’t return a lot of talen in that trade, because it frees up a lot of money to do some other things.
The problem with a salary dump to free up money is that you have to know how you are going to spend that money. Part of the problem with your plan is that it would necessitate coordinating several moves at once: if you trade Sexson for two middling prospects, and can’t pull of the Ramirez deal, you are SOL. You have to replace that offense, and, hopefully, add more. If one thing falls through, you end up in a bidding war with Baltimore for Alfonso Soriano.
No, I’m not. I have a ton of backup plans, and none of them involve Alfonso Soriano.
For instance, trade Sexson and cash to Detriot for Humberto Sanchez and two other lower-level prospects. Sanchez is the M’s 4th starter. Or trade him for a guy with ML experience. To Baltimore for Daniel Cabrera.
You overvalue Richie Sexson. Neither Detroit or Baltimore would make that move, no matter how much you want them to.
Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic. Seriously. You can’t actually believe that. Sexson may have had a slow start this season, but that comp is ludicrous.
Hinske in Toronto, playing regularly: .264/.353/.513
Sexson in Seattle: .264/.338/.500
Park effects give Richie the advantage, but it’s not a huge one. Hinske is 90% of Richie Sexson, and his big flaw (can’t hit lefties) can be reduced with a platoon, while Sexson’s big flaw (sucks for long periods of time) can’t.
I’d trade Sexson for Hinske, straight up, in a heartbeat. If you think that’s idiotic, that’s your problem.
I really think that your are undervaluing Sexson.
How many people with other organizations have you talked to about Richie Sexson and their interest in him? Just wondering…
I also think that you are underestimating the bidding for Manny Ramirez.
How many people with other organizations have you talked to about Manny Ramirez and their interest in him? Just wondering…
In general, I think that you are underestimating the value that teams place on veteran power hitters. Also, I think that you are underestimating teams’ willingness to take on contracts like these.
How many people… oh, you get the point. I’m sure you’ll call me some kind of elitist bastard for this, but Jerry, when it comes to these kind of topics, you’ve got a crazy imagination and no real information of value.
So what exactly are the chances of Gil Meche coming back? Is the front office pretty much set on letting him walk, or will they offer a small 2yr/12mil type deal and see if he bites?
He’s gone.
Look at how the M’s offense compares to the rest of the league.
Again, this year’s offense compares as AVERAGE to the rest of the AL, when you correct for the fact that Safeco is to hitting what Mike Hargrove is to sound in-game decisions, and if you consider that it is very unlikely we will have two sub-replacement level players in the lineup every day next year AND we have several players who have room to grow their games, it probably counts as above average in 2007.
No matter how much you repeat “the M’s offense sucks”, it’s just not so. The problem is Safeco screwing up the performance numbers, not the offense.
RE #90 and Hinske versus Sexson,
You could reach that type of conclusion if you looked at one single stat (EqA in your example) and totally disregard all other information about these two players.
Eric Hinske had one good year (2002), signed a big contract, and was the type of player you couldn’t give away for three years until this season. The Blue Jays and Red Sox masked his weaknesses by platooning him, but the guy is not good. He is a below average defensive player who requires a platoon partner and may hit .275/.350/.450 with 15 HRs if you are lucky.
Sexson had a bad first half, but he has legit 40 HR power. In a park like Fenway, he could easily hit 50. Players with that type of power are rare. He plays everyday. He is also a big-name player with a track record. Bloggers and stat folks may see this as terribly overrated (I agree with you on this) but teams like this type of player. He has much much more trade value in the real world than a guy like Hinske. Eric Hinske’s are easy to find. Guys like Richie Sexson aren’t.
Honestly, I don’t like the Mariner’s offense either (as it is right now). But that has less to do with the players and more with their approach. I, like the rest of us statistical analyzing whores, like walks, extra base hits, and not hacking at bad pitches. SO an approach difference would help, but getting other people who can do those things is a good idear too.
In a park like Fenway, he could easily hit 50
In a park like Fenway, he’d have 80 doubles and 1000 long singles off the Monster. This has been mentioned elsewhere, but Fenway stifles homeruns too.
I am not going to argue Sexson vs. Hinske, I don’t know all the numbers, park factors and other stuff like that.
I will say that I would take Sexson over Hinske, Jerry is right Sexson has had success in a park that is usually pretty harsh on righties. However there are some major flaws with Richie Sexson and we saw that in the 1st half of the season. Now we could easily point to his 2nd half and say “see look what he can do” and he may be capable of doing that for the whole season, but if he is capable of putting up his 2nd half numbers for a full season then he is just as capable of putting up his 1st half numbers for a full season.
Well, EqA is more than “one single stat.” It is “a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching.” In short, the distillation of a bunch of offensive stats into one easy to compare three digit number.
At the plate, Hinske is Trot Nixon, only younger. Young Trot was an elite hitter against RHP. As Dave says, platoon Hinske and you don’t expose his weakness against LHP.
Fenway is not a HR-friendly park, and I wonder why people get confused about this. The 38-foot wall turns a great many HR’s and doubles into singles, and the distance to the low wall in RF turns many Yankee Stadium HR’s into outs.
If Sexson were to hit 50 HR’s there, he’d be the first right-handed hitter to do so since 1938.
I don’t think the Red Soxs would agree to trade away Ramirez for:
- a solid reliever who was last seen writhing on the field after getting drilled in the head by a Vlad Guerrero liner (Boston has firsthand experience with the negative effects of comebackers — see Bryce Florie and Matt Clement).
- a good defensive center fielder who’s one of the worst hitters at his position as well as being prone to injuries.
- a reliever with an ERA over 10 in limited action.
And such a trade would probably cause New Englanders to hurl tea into the ocean — again. I can’t imagine a transaction like that would go over well in Red Sox Nation.
But if the M’s could acquire Manny that would be sweet. And just think, a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away the Mariners actually had David Ortiz in their organization. *sigh*
I don’t think the Red Soxs would agree to trade away Ramirez for
Stop stop stop right there. Remmeber to look at things from all angles, including the team he’s going to. The analysis of the benefits of both parties are as follows:
Mariners get: A surefire hall of famer right handed offensive juggernaut. Free up 3 spots off the 40 man roster. Save some face from the Freddy Garcia trade (Reed helped them get Manny!).
Red Sox get: If Soriano stays a reliever, they free up Papelbon to do what he has publicly said he wants to do; start. Then again, Soriano has also publicly said he wants to start. It would just REALLY SUCK for Boston to have TWO young arms, both stud relievers, wanting to convert to starters. It would just SUCK! Furthur, Boston loses about 19 million off the books for 2 seasons, freeing up that money to go after another big time slugger or pitcher to replace Manny, thereby deluding the backlash from Red Sox Nation. Third, they get a decent CFer or at least a fourth outfielder and a pitching prospect who will at least be serviceable.
Why wouldn’t Boston do this trade, I ask you? Aside from a better offer somewhere else.
“How many people with other organizations have you talked to about Manny Ramirez and their interest in him? Just wondering…”
I don’t know who you talked to. Maybe it was the same person who assured you that Grover was gone after this season.
I imagine that you talk to people who are in a similar situation that you are in: bloggers who follow a specific organization, perhaps guys who have written for BP or Hardball Times or such, or maybe even someone who works for a club as a part-time stats consultant.
But I think that all of those types of people, and everyone who posts on this blog, is totally amazed by what teams decide to do every offseason. Magglio Ordonez’s deal. Jarrod Washburn’s contract. Pretty much 90% of multi-year contracts signed in the last two offseasons. Every year, we are constantly amazed by what clubs do.
These contracts don’t make sense to us. But they happen. Richie Sexson’s contract is a great example. How many of us would have said that Sexson’s contract would have been resonable or even possible if someone asked us our opinion about it on October 1st 2004?
I have read your offseason plans for the past few years, and you have a tendency to come up with very low predictions for contracts. Again, these contracts make sense to you, and to most of us, but they aren’t what actually happens. I think you are doing the same thing with your predictions of the trade value of players like Sexson and Ramirez.
You and your contacts in other organizations might not think that a guy like Sexson would have that much value. But all it takes is another club to estimate that players value as higher. Thats the way the market works. You may think that Reed, Cruceta, and Soriano is totally reasonable for Ramirez. But Art Moreno and Bill Stoneman may think that Ervin Santana, Scott Shields, and a prospect is reasonable for Ramirez. What do you think would happen then?
We’ll see what happens this offseason. But every season, your predictions are a year short and at least a million/year below what actually happens.
In this case, you are proposing salary dumps for players that are signed to contracts that are reasonable relative to what free agents will be getting this offseason.
“I’m sure you’ll call me some kind of elitist bastard for this, but Jerry, when it comes to these kind of topics, you’ve got a crazy imagination and no real information of value.”
I won’t even bother calling you names in response to this. But I will paste in an clause from your own comment guidelines:
“..if we had a U.S.S. Mariner get-together, we were all eating pizza and drinking beer, having a good time, would yelling your comment get you punched, then or later?”
You should follow your own rules more often. Most people here interact with you in a civil manner. You should do the same, regardless of whether you agree with them or not.
“Why wouldn’t Boston do this trade, I ask you? Aside from a better offer somewhere else.”
You just answered your own question.
You just answered your own question.
But I didn’t. The idea is that Boston wouldn’t do this deal. I want to know what the problem is with the deal from the standpoint of the person who critcized it.
Obviously if Boston got three top notch prospects from another organization who took his contract in full, that would be a better deal. But giving up a solid prospect and two mid-range prospects (which is quite normal for someone of Manny’s calibur, weighed in with the added leverage reducer that he wants to be traded and is a general pain in the ass) is a fair deal without a whole lot of downside for either team.
I don’t know who you talked to. Maybe it was the same person who assured you that Grover was gone after this season.
Perhaps you wont call names in response to his comment, but you delivered a perfectly recognizable cheap shot anyway.
don’t notice Carl Crawford in the mix. Will he available?
This was the most unconventional and intriguing Dave’s off-season plan to date.
Dunn has a $13 million option for 2008 in his contract ($500k buyout). At that cost, there are rational arguements that Dunn for 2/$23 is better than Manny at 2/$38 (Manny’s 15-20 runs better per year with the bat).
How much it will take to get Dunn though, reflects on just how stupid you think Wayne Krivsky is.
“How many people with other organizations have you talked to about Manny Ramirez and their interest in him? Just wondering…”
I admit that I don’t have contacts within baseball front offices but after all your contacts, didn’t you speculate that Atlanta would be willing to trade Brian McCann for Eddie Guardado last year? Maybe that was a possibility but you (or your contacts) sure do concoct sure crazy sounding shit.
Even though I’m not an MLB insider, my uninformed opinion is that your trade proposal for Manny is ridiculous. You have the Red Sox willing to take back a lot less talent in exchange for the Mariners assuming his entire contract. But why would the Red Sox do that? They can afford his contract and they must know that even at 19 million per year, Manny isn’t that wildly overpaid. They can come to teams asking for good value and not settle for 40 cents on the dollar because they can just as easily keep him. They did that last year. Also, after a string of deals that haven’t worked out, I think they’ll be reluctant to trade a great player like Manny for a reliever who has had arm pains for the past three seasons, a center fielder who hasn’t shown the ability to hit and a journeyman pitcher. If the Red Sox really want defense in center, they can just as easily promote Jacoby Ellsbury if that is all they want from the position.
My opinion is that the Red Sox would ask for Adam Jones and JJ Putz.
#104: I don’t know who you talked to. Maybe it was the same person who assured you that Grover was gone after this season.
Touché! Perhaps you would like to hop into the Way Back Machine and see Dave’s offseason prediction from a couple of years back at http://ussmariner.com/index.php?p=1971:
The M’s may screw this offseason up, but they won’t screw it up the same way they have the past several years. They aren’t going to get burned by Rich Aurilia types this fall. If they screw up, it’s going to be on a grand scale.
The M’s are going to spend a lot of money this winter. I can’t guarantee they are going to spend it all well, but I can tell you that several of the players we would like to see in Seattle will be forced into deciding to take less money from another organization to turn down the Mariners offer. And, with very few exceptions, the high bidder almost always gets the player in free agency.
I don’t know who Dave’s talking to, but I don’t think it’s other bloggers hunched over computers in their parents’ basement.
Where’s Manny in 2007?
Manny RamÃrez, meanwhile, did not play yesterday, after homering the night before. Where will his place be in 2007? That’s the question he posed to Hall of Fame reporter Peter Gammons in the Sox clubhouse before the game.
“Peter, where am I going to be next year?” he said as he strolled past Gammons.
“I think you’ll probably be here,” Gammons said.
RamÃrez muttered an expletive — in jest, in earnestness, who can say — and walked away.
I have read your offseason plans for the past few years, and you have a tendency to come up with very low predictions for contracts. Again, these contracts make sense to you, and to most of us, but they aren’t what actually happens. I think you are doing the same thing with your predictions of the trade value of players like Sexson and Ramirez.
I think these are two different things.
Like the ideas. If you could really pull all that off it would be a fun team to watch. I agree that injuries would be a concern but hey I’d rather have a good team that gets hurt sometimes.
I was just thinking that instead of Manny, we could go and get Frank Thomas instead. It would save some money and keep some of that valuable trade bait to be spent on a SP. It seems like it might fit well into your plan. He’s not quite as good as Manny and much older but he’s still a heck of a player and could be signed for much less (I think he’s a FA but I might have missed something). This would also free up quite a bit of $$ in your budget. If (or when) he got hurt you just shift Ibanez to DH and have a replacement 1B (which aren’t too hard to find).
I just love the idea that I see a line up listed under “Mariners” that has a few guys who could actually take a base on balls once in a while. (Edmonds, Snelling, Manny, etc)
How much it will take to get Dunn though, reflects on just how stupid you think Wayne Krivsky is.
Oh please don’t ask that question. The speculative rosterbating will go hog wild.
I admit that I don’t have contacts within baseball front offices but after all your contacts, didn’t you speculate that Atlanta would be willing to trade Brian McCann for Eddie Guardado last year? Maybe that was a possibility but you (or your contacts) sure do concoct sure crazy sounding shit.
Dave’s speculations don’t always reflect his sources. Sometimes he, like the rest of us, takes a wild stab at something based on what he knows of player value and perceives of player value. Last year, around the deadline, Guardado’s value to other clubs (especially Atlanta’s, whose closer situation was in flux) was quite high. Whether or not this is stupid is irrelevant, because the “proven closer” is a valued commodity amongst the other teams. A desperate Braves might have made a stupid decision like that. The question, then, is whether or not it was Bavasi who balked. In the end, does it really matter?
Even though I’m not an MLB insider,
Me either. I hate having to pay money for “exclusive reports” from the “experts” that basically tell me jack.
“my uninformed opinion is that your trade proposal for Manny is ridiculous. You have the Red Sox willing to take back a lot less talent in exchange for the Mariners assuming his entire contract. But why would the Red Sox do that?”
This is getting absurd. Have you not been paying attention to the last few years when Manny’s annual ritual is to start asking for trades? The Proverbial “Manny being Manny” phrase was coined from this impish behavior. If Boston, AND THE SABERMETRICALLY INCLINED THEO EPTSTEIN, had a chance to unload money so that he could get another player to replace Manny, and still get some solid talent back in return, he would do it. Epstein isn’t an idiot and you have to pony up talent to get him to bite.
“Also, after a string of deals that haven’t worked out, I think they’ll be reluctant to trade a great player like Manny for a reliever who has had arm pains for the past three seasons, a center fielder who hasn’t shown the ability to hit and a journeyman pitcher. If the Red Sox really want defense in center, they can just as easily promote Jacoby Ellsbury if that is all they want from the position.”
Baseball trade economics are not my strong point, but when you offer to take on someone’s huge contract, you’re not expected to get the cream of the crop prospects back. Getting at least one solid prospect and two middling prospects would be a considerable bait to Theo Eptsein. He’d win out even if Soriano gets hurt again, if Reed doesn’t perform well, and Cruceta never figures it out.
“My opinion is that the Red Sox would ask for Adam Jones and JJ Putz.”
Meh. Putz and Jones would be paying too much for Manny, unless the Red Sox basically picked up all his contract and we got Ramirez practically for free.
To inject a note of reality into this —
As has been noted here before, the Mariners approach when they find talent they want is to simply go get it without attempting to negotiate for the best possible deal.
So, if the Mariners were to decide to go after Manny, it is likely that Epstein would ask for substantially more than Reed/Soriano/Cruceta (e.g., Jones/Soriano/Cruceta), and the Mariners would say “OK, if that’s what it takes”.
And I’m counting on Matsuzaka signing a deal that is below what most people expect him to get, and Boras to agree to structure it in a way that doesn’t pay him huge money in 2007.
Is the second half of this sentence related in some way to $30m/3yrs with $6.5m in 2007?
Great post, thanks for it.
So, if the Mariners were to decide to go after Manny, it is likely that Epstein would ask for substantially more than Reed/Soriano/Cruceta (e.g., Jones/Soriano/Cruceta), and the Mariners would say “OK, if that’s what it takesâ€.
I would agree with this if it were free agency, but what makes you think Bavasi’s that dumb with trades? Nothing that I have seen indicates that he gets anything but fair value for what he’s trading. You can argue Ad-Cab for Perez as one of his few flaws, but most every other time he’s traded someone for someone it hasn’t been a gross overpay.
I guess I’d rather have Sexson than Edmonds, with Ibanez still in left field. I know it’s a six million dollar difference, but that’s pretty much chump change.
Also I don’t think they’ll get Manny, because I don’t think the FO is as creative as Dave and because big deals just don’t seem to happen except in the minds of the rabid fanbase, so why not sign Bonds to a one year deal? He was (almost) the hitter that Manny was this year, and would likely stay healthy as a DH. He’ll probably (?) cost less than Manny, to boot, meaning we don’t have to swap Sexson out and bring in Edmonds. Plus we’re not tied down long-term.
My lineup, then.
Ichiro CF
Doyle RF
Bonds DH
Beltre 3B
Ibanez LF
Sexson 1B
Johjima C
Lopez 2B
Betancourt SS
Against lefties you can move Doyle down in the lineup and put Johjima or Lopez in his spot. After a year, Bonds is history and so is his salary.
I know Bonds isn’t exactly an M’s type of player, but a move to the NW might be what the Dr. ordered for Barry, who seems more relaxed as his career enters his twilight. Plus there’s the added sizzle of the Aaron homerun chase. You can’t tell me that season tickets wouldn’t start flying off the shelf. And then there’s the Hall of Fame cap controversy – maybe Bonds will go in as a Mariner, remembering the great year in beautiful Seattle, when he finally got the love he’s always deserved as the single greatest player of his generation.
I imagine that you talk to people who are in a similar situation that you are in: bloggers who follow a specific organization, perhaps guys who have written for BP or Hardball Times or such, or maybe even someone who works for a club as a part-time stats consultant.
Yes, that’s a part-time stats consultant who has shown up to the last two USSM get togethers, and it was a bunch of stats-consultants named Chris Antonetti, Neil Huntington, and Mike Chernoff who showed up for the one I put on in Cleveland.
You should follow your own rules more often. Most people here interact with you in a civil manner. You should do the same, regardless of whether you agree with them or not.
I said that you “have a crazy imagination and no information of value.” That’s a pretty far cry from “not civil”, and certainly less inflammatory than “…that’s idiotic. Seriously.”
I’m not going to waste my time trying to argue with you, Jerry. You don’t have to believe me, and honestly, I don’t particularly care if you do or not.
Dave,
So are you saying that you had Bill Bavasi, Chris Antonetti, Neil Huntington and Mike Chernoff have gone over your offseason plan the past few years and give it their official rubber stamp as ‘plausible’? Is that your point?
Sorry, I just don’t believe that. I would think that those guys are a bit too busy to be spending their time doing things like that.
I don’t want to get into any more flame wars with you. I just honestly believe that Theo Epstien would balk at a package consisting of a very good setup man, a CFer who is nearly a bust, and a guy who projects as a middle reliever in exchange for one of the best hitters of this generation. I also think that Bill Bavasi would not even consider two middling prospects in exchange for the only real power hitter on the roster.
I know that the purpose of your post is not “this is what Bavasi is likely to do” but instead what you would do in his position. But if other clubs would gladly offer more in trades for those same players, it isn’t realistic to even talk about them.
The fact is, more clubs have extra cash to spend this offseason and the crop of free agents is thin. I don’t think that you will see many clubs dumping contracts for little in return this offseason. Fewer clubs are in the red, and more clubs are looking to be aggressive. With so few good players in free agency this year, why would clubs with big contracts to move accept nearly nothing in return? Look at what the Marlin’s did last offseason. They got premium talent in return for their big contracts. This years market is even thinnner than last year. I think that you are drastically underestimating the type of bidding war that players like Sexson and Ramirez would spark.
In fact, if I were going to do one of these offseason plans, I would trade Ichiro. He would bring back a kings ransom of young talent. This offseason is almost definitely going to be a sellers market.
I think that signing bonds would be a big mistake; he is the least popular man in baseball, beating out even Steinbrenner, he is a major health risk, he is in serious decline, and the list goes on. Part of the point of getting Edmonds is replacing Ibanez in LF. As you must already know, a run saved is worth more than a run scored, and Edmonds in LF will be about equivalent to Sexson if you adjust for Ibanez’ poor defence there.
As far as the FO not going for it because of lack of balls or creativity or whatever… This is DAVE’s plan guys, not theirs. They are going to do whatever they are going to do. This (please correct me if I’m wrong, Dave) is a set of suggested moves, not a set of predicitions. The feasability of them can be questioned, but the probability is quite irrelevant.
Theo Epstein tried to give away a younger, healthier Manny Ramirez for free three years ago.
So are you saying that you had Bill Bavasi, Chris Antonetti, Neil Huntington and Mike Chernoff have gone over your offseason plan the past few years and give it their official rubber stamp as ‘plausible’? Is that your point?
You should change your login to Jerry, King Of The Strawman.
No, that wasn’t my point. Pretty much everyone else reading this thread will understand my point, I’m sure.
Great post, Dave. My company may not care for ussmariner.com due to my dropoff in productivity for hours on end, but screw ‘em.
Re – 119
Signing Bonds would be a bad idea, I feel. It would turn Safeco into a circus and other M’s would run the risk of being hit in the head with syringes and various other Bonds-hating paraphernalia. Stay clear of the most hated man in baseball.
Dave,
What do you think of Dave Dellucci as an option to play LF if Ibanez goes to first and we get someone like Manny at DH? Or would Delluci not be much of an upgrade from Broussard playing first and Ibanez in left for the price?
Also how much do you think Dellucci will cost? 2 yrs 11 mil?
Thanks
What do you think of Dave Dellucci as an option to play LF if Ibanez goes to first and we get someone like Manny at DH? Or would Delluci not be much of an upgrade from Broussard playing first and Ibanez in left for the price?
I think Dellucci is going to stay in Philadelphia. My guess is he gets something like 2 years, $10 million, somewhere in that range.
Bonds in “serious decline” still posted the highest OBP in baseball. I don’t really know what more you’d want.
For those that think that Dave’s proposed Manny deal is absurd, you may want to look at what guy’s getting over ten million per year have been dealt for in the past 6 years.
Sammy Sosa, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Mike Hampton (ATL), Nomar Garciaparra, Chan Ho Park, Jason Kendall, Shawn Green, Larry Walker, Richard Hidalgo, Vasquez to CWS, Thome, and DelGado
Some have moved for some talent, some have move for overpriced vets, some have moved for only money and no talent what-so-ever.
In the end between bad contracts or just cash the team sending the player with the absurdly high contract eats 44% of the overall contract.
Dave is basically sticking to the theory that if the high priced player is to move with NO money being sent and no awful contract coming back the talent they receive is not going to be great.
Any team that sends high value prospects to Boston will be expecting Boston to send them money.
Don’t forget Bobby Abreu, bedir. The most recent high salary guy who was dealt was essentially given away after the Phillies spent a year peddling him without success. If teams weren’t interested in adding Bobby Abreu at 2 years, $30 million, the idea that they’ll be falling all over themselves to add Richie Sexson at 2 years, $28 million is a bit of a laugher.
Sorry, I last updated the chart before opening day this year. That makes it 47%.
So yes this means that Mariners won’t get much if the deal Sexson, but it also means that it would not cost much to get Manny.
Dave, big fan of the Manny idea!
Question though; You brought up Helton as one of the three possible big hitters you think the M’s could acquire. Just from what I know about the Rockies organization, I would assume he would be easier to get. It seems like they are a team who is looking to get younger, have a few good studs who can step up and replace him, and by moving Helton without dishing too much of his salary they would be in a better position in the long run.
What was the reason why you went with Manny instead of Helton?
Bonds isn’t going to be cheap, and there’s no reason to assume he won’t keep going downhill like he’s done the last few years. What happened to Ruth and Aaron at the end of their careers is pretty instructive.
I’m also not sure you’d want to sign someone for who a grand jury might come back with an indictment any day now. Yeah, innocent until proven guilty, and so on. That doesn’t mean you have to sign the guy to a contract, just because there isn’t anything directly contradicting his story of “gosh golly gee, I had no idea what was in the cream and the clear”.
If only it had been Delgado instead of Sexson…
Also wasn’t that long ago we were talking Brian Giles in essentially the same way we are talking about Edmunds.
Frankly, I’d rather pursue someone like Pat Burrell for LF. Pat’s a guy Phillie has (had) been trying to dump for years. He might still be available, if Gillickan can’t see past the .258 average…
Also, isn’t Luis Gonzalez rumored available? He might be a good fit for a season.
#132 – Would the Rockies move him as easily after recently trading away Ryan Shealy? At this point in Helton’s career, with his HR power missing for a couple seasons, he’s a lot like Olerud. Olerud was a very good hitter, but Manny completely changes an offense.
Dave – I love the entire plan. That lineup looks amazing, if a bit old. While the frailty of some of the players is, like you said, a risk for 2007, some of the older pieces are easily replaceable for 2008, since Jones should be ready to step into the outfield in Edmond’s place (perhaps shifting Ichiro back to right and Snelling to left), and if he’s not ready, a decent corner OF shouldn’t be too hard to find (keeping Ichiro in center) – and the same goes for replacing Ibanez at 1B, unless he defies age and expectations again and has another good season.
#132 & 135 – Whoops. A little research may help me not look like an idiot. Helton’s contract isn’t up til 2011! He seems like a good fit for Safeco but that backloaded contract and his recent decline this year doesn’t look like a realistic trade, unless CO threw in some major cash.
Where as Manny may be declining, he’s only on the hook for two years!
Dave – in a world where you get to discuss this plan with Bavasi, how do you think he would respond? Do you think he would like the ideas and persue them? Like it but think it not completely possible? Would he disagree with any of the moves, and if so, which ones? (for instance, I think he would prefer an overpaid midlevel starter at the back end of the rotation to Lopez/Guzman/Redding/etc). And would the rest of the front office respond differently from Bavasi?
And would the rest of the front office respond differently from Bavasi?
Oh, come on…that’s like asking if the Pope’s Catholic….
Some of the weaknesses in the plan are inherent, of course; there are a lot of conditionals and areas which are not particularly under the Ms’ control.
But there are considerable strengths and the key thing is thinking about looking for edges and incremental improvements (the Manny/Richie aspect aside) for minimal effort.
The Sexson stuff offers several hypothetical benefits:
Gives Raul an alternate spot in the field. Gives the M’s more money to accommodate a better fitting bat and LFer.
Raul at first isn’t better than Richie at first. So let’s suppose we keep Richie at 1B and move Raul to DH. Raul might not be excited about that, but hey, if Ichiro can move to CF, Raul can damn well move to DH.
Then, we pay a good price for Burrell and get him into LF. The only possible downside to that is the potential to block Adam Jones. However, if we had to assume that anyone is going to decline next year, I’d pin the tail on the Ibanez donkey, and one of the corner OFers could transition to DH, clearing a spot for our rising star.
So we get (with appropriate roster adjustments):
Ichiro
Snelling
Burrell
Beltre
Sexson
Ibanez
Johjima
Lopez
Betancourt
What was the reason why you went with Manny instead of Helton?
Helton has a full no-trade clause, doesn’t seem to have any desire to leave Colorado, and his contract is horrendous. He’s also not as good as Manny.
Frankly, I’d rather pursue someone like Pat Burrell for LF.
Ick. He has $27.5 million left on his deal for the next two years and a full no-trade clause. He’s basically the Phillies version of Richie Sexson. Same skillset, same contract.
Dave – in a world where you get to discuss this plan with Bavasi, how do you think he would respond?
Laughter.
Do you think he would like the ideas and persue them?
No.
Like it but think it not completely possible?
I think he’d enjoy it from a entertainment standpoint, but dismiss it as something far too complicated to pull off in real life. Which is probably true.
Would he disagree with any of the moves, and if so, which ones?
Rodrigo Lopez isn’t his kind of guy, and I don’t think he has any interest in going into 2007 with a rotation with so many question marks. His mandate is to upgrade the pitching, and I didn’t really do that.
Burrell, Beltre, and Sexson as the middle of the order… three right-handed power bats in the worst park in baseball for right-handed power bats. I hope you plan on reconfiguring Safeco Field.
Hey Dave,
That makes sense regarding dellucci. Now I was wondering if you had any thoughts on Cliff Floyd. It seems like this will be his last year as a met. Might not be a bad fit for Jermaine Dye type contract if we can move Sexson and free up DH for him.
Also any thoughts on Orlando Hernandez as a fourth starter, signed to a short term deal? He still k’s a batter per inning even if it is in the NL.
I was too euphoric from all this rosturbation. For some reason I was thinking of Burrell as a LH bat. dumb.
But yeah, I’d go for adjusting the fences. Maximize the value of the guys already on the roster. At the very least, it is the best insurance for possibility of all the trade scenarios failing.
To be a little more clear on the fences idea: that is one move totally within the control of management – wouldn’t cost a lot – would provide an immediate upgrade for most of your core players without hurting anyone but maybe Ibanez – and, as discussed previously – broadens the pool of players to target by trade or free agency.
I know this subject has been discussed to death. But how many moves can management make that would cost so little for so much benefit? And, we don’t have to rely on the unpredictable fickle nature of trading partners, player preferences, and agent shennanigans.
I’m going to get roasted for this, but here goes.
Dave, since as you suggest only A-Rod is in Ramirez’s class as a right handed HoF candidate in the AL, is there any scenario whereby A-Rod makes sense?
Sure, position is a problem at the moment.
Sure, A-Rod doesn’t like Safeco.
Sure, Howard and Chuck will probably never forgive him. Hell, I don’t want to either.
But the criteria here seems to be impact bat, affordability, and availability. The bat is not a question. I believe Texas is still on the hook for much of his salary–may be a wash in salaries with Sexson or Beltre at this point. And given what’s gone on this year, he’s probably never been more available and unless he has a trade approval clause, he doesn’t have 10/5 rights. I would be surprised if the Yankees gave up on him, though. And his pride/marketing plans would take a major hit.
He’s four years younger than Ramirez, healthier, with four years to go on the deal. Can he play left field?
And no, I’m not in favor of bringing back Lou, Griffey, RJ, Edgar, Joey Cora, Lenny Randle, or Ruppert Jones. Jose Cruz Jr would be fine, though.
Now I was wondering if you had any thoughts on Cliff Floyd.
Floyd is actually one of my backup plan guys, and he’s intriguing in a buy-low kind of way. But there’s a lot of downsides to Floyd. The injuries are obviously a huge concern, and you can’t really count on him to play more than 100-120 games. He hasn’t been able to hit lefties in three years. And, at age 34, considering all the wear and tear his body has taken over the years, it’s at least somewhat likely that he’s just done as an everyday player, and this year was the beginning of the end for him.
He’s also been an east coast, NL guy his whole career, so you have to wonder how much he’d want to come west and switch leagues.
He’s a name I’d have somewhere down the list of guys to call if all my other options fell through, but he’s a backup plan, really.
Dave, since as you suggest only A-Rod is in Ramirez’s class as a right handed HoF candidate in the AL, is there any scenario whereby A-Rod makes sense?
Sure, he’d make sense for the M’s, just like he’d make sense for every team in baseball because of how good he is. But the Yankees aren’t going to trade him, he has a full no-trade clause and I can’t see him agreeing to come back here, and ownership would never go for it.
Dave another weakness is, while you’re adding walks from Edmonds you
re also getting a lot of strikeouts from both Rameriz and Edmonds. Also I don’t know if anyones mentioned this but Edmonds is 36 not 38.
#113– Beane intends to re-sign Thomas, and Thomas wants to re-sign.
#115– Last year, around the deadline, Guardado’s value to other clubs (especially Atlanta’s, whose closer situation was in flux) was quite high.
I dunno, I think that should be that his value ‘was perceived to be quite high’. If it were as high as everyone says, he likely would have been moved.
#127–I think Dellucci is going to stay in Philadelphia. My guess is he gets something like 2 years, $10 million, somewhere in that range.
FWIW, the thought in the Philly papers is that Gillick won’t offer what Delluci wants, which is the chance to play more than he did this season : “”I want to be with a team that allows me to do what I can do,” he said. “I feel that I’m more of a contributor than just a utility-type player… . I wasn’t satisfied, especially coming off the amount of playing time I had last year… . Gosh-darn it, I know I can hit lefthanded pitching. I haven’t been given the opportunity.”
and oh how the papers would love to move Burrell, but as the Inquirer put it: “First, there’s the money. Burrell is owed $27 million over the next two seasons. Sources have indicated that the Phils will pay a portion of Burrell’s salary in a trade. Second, Burrell has a no-trade clause and would have to give his OK to any deal. Third is his health. Fourth is the offensive inconsistency and the feeling held by many baseball people that Burrell is easy to pitch to and doesn’t produce enough.”
I wish there was even a chance of the M’s doing this.
But they won’t. And they won’t because they will not fill their bullpen with Putz and a bunch of guys earning the minimum. It would be really smart, but they won’t do it.
And as a result, they wn’t be able to afford Manny, and Manny’s the centre-piece of the plan.
Manny is an incredible hitter. Adding Manny would be like getting the 1999-2001 version of Edgar back.
And I’ll take that.
Dave another weakness is, while you’re adding walks from Edmonds you’re also getting a lot of strikeouts from both Rameriz and Edmonds.
Meh. Not a consideration in my book.
For one thing…you’re already getting a lot of strikeouts from Sexson….
Strikeouts aren’t bad.
Let me expand on my idea about Bonds, along with favoring Sexson over Edmonds.
1. Bonds doesn’t cost us Soriano or Reed, as with the Manny trade scenario.
2. He’ll likely make less than Manny next year. He got 18 million last year and I think he can be had for 15-16, tops.
3. I think it’s fair to say that Edmonds’ best defensive years are well behind him – I don’t think he’s that big of an upgrade over Raul, and offensively Edmonds/Ibanez is a wash with Sexson/Ibanez, not even taking into account Edmonds’ health liabilities.
4. If Bonds is indicted, all this becomes moot, but assuming he isn’t, I don’t see much of a reason for not bringing him here. Sure, he’s unpopular, but so is/was Carl Everett, and Bonds at least believes in Dinosaurs.
5. Bonds hit 270/454!/545 in 130 games, while having to field his position. Manny hit 321/439/619 in 130 games while ‘fielding’ his position. Not that I don’t think Manny is a great hitter, but so is Bonds, and if 270/454/545 (incl 292/430/596 after the ASB) is a ’serious decline’, then, well, I think we’d all like to go through serious declines like that in our lifetimes. Plus Bonds is left-handed.
To sum up, Bonds + Soriano + Reed – draft pick + 16 million is greater than Ramirez – Soriano – Reed + 19 million. Doesn’t that seem right, even with all of Bonds baggage, including the huge recliners?
Evan, I think you mean “strikeouts are only marginally worse than other kinds of outs, and if they come attached to players who hit home runs and walk the entire package is a positive”.
I do think we’re getting caught up in the names here. What I think the takeaway from Dave’s post would be is:
- the pitching staff desperately needs an infusion of talent
- the free agent marketplace isn’t where you should go to get it
- we have some offensive/position surplus we can trade, so we should
- the offense will be in pretty good shape if we trade the surplus
- you might be able to get offense cheaper than pitching this offseason, so maybe the goal should be to have adequate pitching (assuming our young pitchers develop some and can step up to key roles, along with some judicious additions) and an outsatanding offense.
Dave sez:
Dave touches on a key point, here. He’s right: The ideas contained in this offseason plan are the important ones. And while it is smart, it’d also be immensely difficult to pull off. Lambasting the M’s GM for the inability to pull off Dave’s plan is not productive. Bill Bavasi operates in a much more difficult world.
In the meantime: Nice plan, Dave. I like the proposed trades. I wish the M’s would be more involved in the trade market. They have some chips to deal this offseason. The big ones:
Jeremy Reed, a valued part who’s superfluous to the M’s.
Rafael Soriano, who is valued about as high as can be right now.
Jake Woods, who is overvalued by the market. Sell high!
Don’t get me wrong; I love Raffy. I just think his value to other teams is higher than it is to the M’s. Same with Reed. Both can bring good value in return, and Dave’s right on one big point in this plan: The trade market is the place to find pitching value right now, not the free agent market.
Shoot. I didn’t close my blockquote at the right point. Bad robbbbbb, no biscuit. The quote I was looking for was:
“I think he’d enjoy it from a entertainment standpoint, but dismiss it as something far too complicated to pull off in real life. Which is probably true.”
Evan, I think you mean “strikeouts are only marginally worse than other kinds of outs, and if they come attached to players who hit home runs and walk the entire package is a positiveâ€.
Well, that was the second thing I was alluding to. Too many fans fixate on strikeouts as a negative above and beyond any other kind of out.
5. Bonds hit 270/454!/545 in 130 games, while having to field his position.
Yeah, against an NL that’s used to walking him all the time because he’s BARRY BONDS. He now gets to change leagues for the first time in his life at age 43. Like I said, go see how well that worked out for Ruth and Aaron when they changed leagues at the tail end of their careers.
Honestly? I think you should pitch to the guy unless it’s VERY clearly a IBB situation (like WFB is coming up behind him). There’s no reason he should be getting 38 IBBs (and I think some of his non- IBB walks are semi-intentional ones). I don’t think he hits the good fastball very well any more, he’s a complete concrete block on the basepaths and cannot play the field (Manny’s not great in the field, but you could play him in RF without it being a joke), and he’s at an age (43) where very quick real declines happen all the time.
All that + baggage + the fact that he and his agent KNOW “Come see Barry break Hank Aaron’s record” is going to be a major attendance draw and will demand commensurate money… well, it’s an easy decision for me as Hypothetical Mariner GM. No sign. Plus it’s one thing to sign a guy like Lawton who’s openly apologetic about steroid use when you have an organization with that as a problem. Signing Bonds basically is saying to your minor league system (one that has had a fair number of people get suspended over steroids) “there’s a set of rules for you, and another for Barry, because he’s a star and you aren’t”. And quite frankly, I don’t care HOW good he is, that’s not a message I send to my organization.
#121: you ignored one VERY important element of that proposed deal….the Bosox would rid themselves of $38M committed to Manny…. payroll flexibility is a very important thing to possess when *retooling*. I think we as casual fans often tend to improperly weigh payroll issues…
You can’t really evaluate most personnel decisions properly without considering payroll…
Tell me again why we’re not worried about Snelling’s September numbers? Small sample size of course, but a .577 OPS and 26 Ks in 60 PAs nearly exclusively facing RH pitchers isn’t too enouraging. Just looking for a pep talk…
I like the idea of trading Sexson to use the money on pitching and/or an offensive upgrade. A couple of other teams that I would think might have some interest in Richie are the Orioles and the Dodgers (if Nomar isn’t coming back). Dave, do you think the Orioles would entertain offers for Bedard or Cabrera in a deal for Sexson? If not straight up, maybe if we added Woods and a prospect? It would be nice to add a young starter to go with Felix, and I realize your Guzman proposal would do that but wouldn’t one of the Oriole hurlers have a higher upside? If that’s not realistic, how about James Loney from the Dodgers? Seems like he’d have a nice swing for Safeco…..
Tell me again why we’re not worried about Snelling’s September numbers? Small sample size of course,
Um, didn’t you just answer your own question?
And I’d like to see how he does when he isn’t being jerked in and out of the lineup so much.
I dunno. Dave says the critical piece in this scenario is Ramirez, and certainly his presence changes any line up immensely. But as has been pointed out, the Mariner offense is about average, especially if CF and DH are producing all year long instead of only August and September.
I think that even if the entire Ramirez proposal is scrapped and the Sexson money were spent on pitching (via trade, of course), this is a great plan. An outfield composed of Edmonds Ichiro and Snelling is a huge upgrade over anything we’ve seen in the last few years, even taking into consideration Edmonds’ past and possible future injuries etc etc. Sure, there will be a hole to fill at 1B/DH, but that is the easiest position on the field to fill.
Oh, and please, please don’t even talk about Bonds coming to Seattle. I’m so tired of cheering against the M’s DH.
Dave, do you think the Orioles would entertain offers for Bedard or Cabrera in a deal for Sexson?
No.
If not straight up, maybe if we added Woods and a prospect?
No.
It would be nice to add a young starter to go with Felix, and I realize your Guzman proposal would do that but wouldn’t one of the Oriole hurlers have a higher upside?
Guzman’s upside isn’t the problem. He has plenty of upside.
If that’s not realistic, how about James Loney from the Dodgers? Seems like he’d have a nice swing for Safeco.
He has a nice swing for Dodger Stadium, too. With Loney making the league minimum and having a pretty bright future, there’s no reason for the Dodgers to go after a high priced first baseman.
That’s a very good point. The exchanged talent doesn’t need to be equal if there’s a huge financial commitment being moved around.
By freeing Theo of Manny’s contract, you’re handing Theo a bunch of value. From his pint of view, he’s losing Manny, but he’s gaining not just Soriano, Reed, and Cruceta, but also whoever he manages to hand that $38 million.
“Um, didn’t you just answer your own question”?
Only if there were major league stats to tell me otherwise, and if I believed that his minor league results will eventually translate to the majors more than I believe what I saw with my own two eyes this year.
Why would you have Ramirez bat third Dave with the chance of getting the bases loaded in the 1st inning? The guy has a career OPS of 1.125 with the bases full, not to mention 20 career grand slams.
Only if there were major league stats to tell me otherwise, and if I believed that his minor league results will eventually translate to the majors more than I believe what I saw with my own two eyes this year.
You should.
Going on what Dave said: Doyle has 2000 minor league plate appearances. I’m not tossing those overboard because OMG HE DIDN’T HIT IN SEPTEMBER, any more than we should have thought Willie Bloomquist or Rene Rivera’s minor league stats were meaningless because they hit well during THEIR cups of coffee.
epon.
Bonds had 3 steals last year. Manny had zero. Bonds had 23 doubles, and Manny had 27. So I need more evidence that he’s just a statue on the basepaths, or that he’s more so than Manny.
I imagine Dave isn’t touching the Bonds issue because it’s a non-starter for him, and that’s fine. I don’t need to have my idea validated. But I haven’t seen a good argument that Bonds would be much worse or cost much more than Manny, and if we can keep Soriano and put him in the rotation, then that fills another gaping hole.
Oh, eponymous, and Bonds can’t get around on the fastball? How about .638 and .657, Bonds’ slugging percentages for August and September, supposedly when his 42 year old body would be showings its years. The guy can still rake, and predicting a decline for him is like predicting a decline for Jamie Moyer. Sure, it will happen someday, but they’re so historically unique that you just don’t know when that ’someday’ will be.
Also, Bonds has never failed a steroids test. But let’s not get into that. The bottom line is that he can rake for me in Safeco any day, and I don’t think it sends a bad message to the franchise, or any worse of a message than “bash gays and hit your women and be called a clubhouse leader” aka Carl Everett.
#10: Manny has stated in past comments he would be open to being reunited with Mike Hargrove. If Hargrove ever contributes anything to this team, I’d take that.
Only if there were major league stats to tell me otherwise,
Small. Sample. Size.
Why ISN’T that something to consider?
Can we get t-shirts that talk about sample size for next year? I would like either of the following:
Small. Sample. Size.
-OR-
What part of small sample size don’t you understand?
“How many people with other organizations have you talked to about Manny Ramirez and their interest in him? Just wondering…”
Based on recent experience during Hargrove-gate, Dave, do you believe what all those people are telling you?
168, 169, 172, 173 – I certainly anticipated these responses, and I acknowledge the small sample size. However there was lots of discussion on this board this summer prior to Snelling’s call-up that alluded to a slump in the minors, mental struggles, etc. It seems like this high a K rate is not COMPLETELY meaningless. I’m in complete agreement that he should be given a shot to be a regular next year. I just wanted to see if there was anything to some of these numbers. If the experts say ‘no’, I’ll shut up.
Bonds had 3 steals last year. Manny had zero.
Go look at Edgar’s career stolen base percentage after his hamstrings went pffft in 1993. I’ve seen Bonds. He’s a boat anchor on the basepaths who gets SBs because there are times guys don’t play him to steal. His lack of speed is why he can’t play the field- his range is terrible.
Sure, it will happen someday, but they’re so historically unique that you just don’t know when that ’someday’ will be.
And if “someday” is 2007, that means you just made a huge bad bet that will kill you in 2007. Moyer was one year, 5 million for 2006. Bonds will likely be the highest paid player on any team he’s on, save maybe the Yankees. It’s a huge difference in risk.
Also, Bonds has never failed a steroids test
So the message to your organization is “don’t get caught, and in case you do have to tell a grand jury what was going on, tell them you had no idea what was in the cream and the clear, and you too can get a contract for $15 million while being a huge jerk”?
I would also point out that using Carl Everett is a bad example- as he pretty clearly entered his collapse phase this year.
No thanks. Shoeless Joe Jackson could rake, too- but he didn’t get any work after 1920, and I don’t think Bonds should, either. I’m perfectly happy to let him hang out with Raffy Palmeiro and Mark McGwire on the golf course. I don’t need a “beyond any reasonable doubt” standard of evidence that would lead to a conviction to think the cost, the headaches and the risks on the performance AND “intangibles” side are not worth the upside of .280/450/.550 from my DH.
Theo Epstein tried to give away a younger, healthier Manny Ramirez for free three years ago.
Yes, when there were three more years on Manny’s contract (making it more of a financial albatross), he tried to dump it so he could free up money to sign Vlad as a free agent or to trade for A-Rod without restructuing his deal (in a way that the MLBPA vetoed).
That was then; this is now.
How would Theo spend the (much reduced) Manny money to improve the team today?
But they won’t. And they won’t because they will not fill their bullpen with Putz and a bunch of guys earning the minimum. It would be really smart, but they won’t do it.
Post-Eddie, Pre-Joel, isn’t that essentially what the bullpen was? Aside from Joel, hasn’t it still been that way for the rest of the season? Julio’s getting a little something, but that’s really about it. With Eddie and Rafael likely to receive large raises (assuming either or both stay), that would pretty much mean that there isn’t much more to spend in the bullpen without taking away from what should have been spent in SP and position players’ salaries.
Bavasi was on the radio Saturday saying he liked the way the cheap, homegrown bullpen performed. I suspect they’ll continue doing that.
Finally coming back around…
Dave, say the Bosox were interested in your deal, but said that they wanted Adam Jones, not Reed. Would you still pull the trigger?
Would you pursue cash from the Bosox as well (perhaps to offset 2008 as well as 2007)? I know the Rangers are still basically paying ARod’s salary for Steinbrenner.
If the Giants don’t want to deal for Sexson, are there any other teams you’d call? Houston? Colorado? Toronto?
Dave: Nice plan. I agree with you that it is unrealistic, but that’s not the point. It’s a little old for my tastes in its key parts, and some of the trade parts (Reed, Broussard, Perez, and to some extent, Soriano, given his injury history and some uncertainty about how he’ll react to getting drilled) fall a little too far into the “sell low” category, IMO. That said, it’s bold, it should work if it could be pulled off, and the “sell low” types are all replaceable within the organization. Some other thoughts:
(1) Long before Dave’s recent post/thread about who you trade to free up salary space, I had concluded that Sexson is the guy you trade, if you can. That said, you simply have to replace his production in the line-up, and more importantly, need a hitter who is feared (as Dave said, a “guy who changes the whole shape of this offense” by being a guy the M’s lack even with Sexson, a guy “teams need to pitch around”). Honestly, the M’s haven’t really had one of those since A-Rod, even though Edgar was close in 2001 and even parts of 2002.
This isn’t as easy as most people thing. For instance, in #63, Mat said:
“Richie’s 22.0 VORP was 16th amongst MLB 1st basemen. His offensive contributions shouldn’t be that difficult to replace if you are even mildly creative.”
Except that he didn’t produce that VORP at an even rate. For the first two months, he was much worse than that (possibly even negative ORP teritory), and over the last four months, he produced at a rate that is probably 50-80% better than that, depending on the stretch he’s in.
Replacing Bad Richie is not difficult at all. Replacing Good Richie is quite hard. Finding somebody who replaces Richie’s production and brings that extra intangible of being a “feared” hitter? There just aren’t very many who ever come available. Dave’s right – Manny is the best of the bunch we might be able to chose from (Manny, Bonds, Helton, Dunn).
(2) I strongly believe Dave is right when arguing with those who think the price for Manny will be steeper. If anything, I think Dave is offering more than it will take, at least unless the BoSox take on part of his contract. [Which,BTW Dave, you have underestimated because you have forgotten about the $4M a year - which is stretched out over many years - in deferred money Manny is owed, and the $1M bonus he gets if he is traded. So while his base is an average of $19M for the next two years ($18M, and then $20M, followed bu an option for two more years at $20M; not sure what the buyout cost there is, if any), the cost over two years is not $38M but $47M.] Even Dave says this deal is “twenty times better” than the deal that landed Abreau. Granted, Manny is better than Abreau, but still . . .. Frankly, I probably wouldn’t offer as much as Dave, and I would still expect the Red Sox to pick up at least the deferred money owed, to boot. It wouldn’t surprise me much at all if the Red Sox once again put Manny on waivers, and while there may be others interested in him, I don’t think there would be any team ahead of the M’s on the waiver wire with the $$ to take him on. The question is whether any other team would pony up more than what Dave is suggesting to thwart a waiver move. I don’t think anybody would offer nearly as much as Dave suggests, and I think less will do the trick if the worry is just beating another team’s offer.
My hesitation about Manny is simply that he’s going to be 35. For a long time, he’s reminded me of the kind of hitter Edgar was, and Edgar aged very gracefully. I understand – even believe – that he will maintain something close to his current level of production for the next two years, but it also comes with the same kind of injury risk Edgar had (and really, any 35 year-old has, even without Manny’s history of fragility).
If it will take as much as Dave suggests to land Manny (or more, as some suggest), I am not averse to the idea of looking at Bonds for something like 1 year, $14-$15M, plus certain incentives. Guys who’ve looked like they were in much worse decline than Bonds 2006 .341 EQA, .270/.454/.545 (.292/.430/.596 post ASB, when he was healthier), like Thome and Thomas, have shown it is possible to continue at a very productive, even “feared” rate even if he does decline some from 2006 next year. Bottom line – Bonds is one of the few hitters that fit the need we’re talking about, is the only one who costs you nothing to get, and will likely be the cheapest option over the shortest period of time. There are HUGE non-baseball and intangible reasons not to do this, but not many baseball reasons not to.
[And to EC, who suggested you need only look at Aaron and Ruth's moves to the AL for reason not sign Bonds. Aaron's last year in Atlanta, his EQA was .287. Bond's EQA in 2006 was .341. Ruth is a closer comp (last year in NY, his EQA was .334, but that was a far different era medically, and in terms of training, as is Bond's attitude towards training vis a vis Ruth. Those aren't very persuasive comps, to me.]
If not Manny, and not Bonds, I’d take Helton, even though his contract is horrible, and his HR production has dropped him into something closer to John Olerud territory than Manny territory. Sure, the contract is for five more years (close to $17M for ‘07-’10, then closer to $20M, when you factor in his buyout), but he’ll only be 36 in the last year of it, when $20M might not seem quite as steep as it does now. The real question is how you see Helton’s decline pattern, as compared to Manny, as well as what kind of production he can give you and whether he is really the kind of “feared” hitter we need. I can definitely see his decline coming sooner than Manny’s (perhaps) and I don’t think he fits the mold we’re looking for, but I like him better than Dunn (and less than Manny or Bonds).
Actually, even though he isn’t a “feared” hitter, I might skip over Helton or Dunn and go straight to Gary Matthews, Jr. for 2 years and an option with a decent buyout first, ’cause he’ll come cheaper than either of ‘em and may nearly replicate what they could do in Safeco.
(3) My biggest worry about this plan is not with the Manny part. it is that the M’s may not be able to get Matsuzaka. If that happened, I would be shocked if they didn’t then go straight to
Schmidt, which might work out OK for a year, but would likely be a 4-year deal that we’ll HATE in years 2-4. I hope the back-up plan is just more offense and fill-in pitchers, or pursuing free agents instead of trades for the big bat, so that we can use some of those trade chips to get a decent pitcher back in a trade . . .. [And if $25M can't get Mats' rights, so be it. I might even stop at $20M. That's just a shitload of money.]
(4) I am least on board with the Edmonds part of the deal, and I think it is also the least realistic part (from the other teams’ perspective). The logic is that you can get Edmonds because the Cards probably would cut him loose anyway. But, if that’s true, why would they throw in $2M for three guys who don’t have $2M in value, collectively? these guys are pretty much scrap heap guys (maybe Thomas aside), and you have to pay Perez a decent amount of money just so you can wonder if, at 38, he’ll be the guy that posted a .979 OPS at Cleveland, or the guy who posted a .545 OPS in Seattle. And yes, while Edmonds still has value if platooned/used right, and is a good defensive fit if he would play LF, he’s still going to be 37 and he’s taken a lot of abuse to that body over the years.
Other than those caveats, good, bold plan. We could do a helluva lot worse.
The logic is that you can get Edmonds because the Cards probably would cut him loose anyway. But, if that’s true, why would they throw in $2M for three guys who don’t have $2M in value, collectively?
The point is that it’s cheaper than the buyout they would have to pay Edmonds to cut him loose. If they really do decide not to keep Edmonds, they’re basically getting three guys for free.
Dave, say the Bosox were interested in your deal, but said that they wanted Adam Jones, not Reed. Would you still pull the trigger?
No. The most valuable commodities in baseball are pre-arbitration everyday players, especially at up-the-middle positions. Jones is a valuable commodity, and not one that I’d give away lightly.
Would you pursue cash from the Bosox as well (perhaps to offset 2008 as well as 2007)? I know the Rangers are still basically paying ARod’s salary for Steinbrenner.
The Red Sox have been adament in their past negotiations that they won’t pay Manny to play against them. This was a big hangup in the A-Rod negotiations, and there’s little reason to think that has changed.
If the Giants don’t want to deal for Sexson, are there any other teams you’d call? Houston? Colorado? Toronto?
I can’t see any of those three teams being especially interested. I’d say the likely suitors for Sexson would be San Francisco, Baltimore, and maybe Detroit, maybe.
Boston Herald:
Philadelphia Inquirer:
What part of small sample size don’t you understand?
I’ve always prefered “I’ll size your small sample if you sample my small size.” Or something like that.
Re 184:
Hot Stove starting early.
God damn, Dave, this is the Scarlett Johansson of rosterbation. I love it.
You’re taking advantage of the things I wish the M’s could take advantage of: situations where you know more than the other guy. All the teams that are going to fall all over Zito are doing exactly the opposite. Yes, we are desperate for pitching, and you’ve only partly addressed that, but you’ve addressed it better than all the free agent lottery ticket buyers will be doing, and for WAY less money.
The Ramirez thing is the prize. When you’re talking about top HOFers like this, 34 is no longer an issue. Ramirez is “Edgar Martinez-heavy”. I’m salivating. People saying “oh, he’ll drop off in Safeco” are missing the point — everybody drops off in Safeco, that’s why you adjust the stats. And Ramirez is, if anything, undervalued by the market, and not just because of the contract. I want, I NEED to see those bases on balls. He might even get into a couple of fistfights with Hargrove, which would be enjoyable as well.
Audacious and brilliant. Alas, I think your 10% chance is optimistic, and we’re going to end up paying Barry Zito $100 gazillion and starting Willie Bloomquist full time. Who’s in line for free agency after 2007?
182, Mike Snow, wrote:
“The point is that [paying $2M in a trade is] cheaper than the buyout they would have to pay Edmonds to cut him loose. If they really do decide not to keep Edmonds, they’re basically getting three guys for free.”
No, they’re not, because Perez gets at least as much next year as this year ($1.7M) if his option is picked up. Yes, his contract can be bought out for $125K, and then you’d be right, but why would the Cards agree to take on Perez just to buy out his option? And are Thomas and Balentien really all you can expect in this trade? I’d bet you could get more, and save more of Edmonds’ $3M buyout than they are, here. Plus, buying out Edmonds probably isn’t as black-and-white a decision for the Cards as you assume it will be….
One other good thing about bold proposals like this one–lots and lots of heated discussion.
[Generally, with people with a decent amount of intelligence and knowledge]
However there was lots of discussion on this board this summer prior to Snelling’s call-up that alluded to a slump in the minors, mental struggles, etc. It seems like this high a K rate is not COMPLETELY meaningless.
FWIW, Doyle seems to think it was his needing to adjust to the pitchers adjusting to him…
Well, they’re getting the rights to three guys for free, that’s the point. And if you offset the additional savings against Perez’s option, the Cardinals are left paying roughly $700K to $1M for him. Which I’d say is a more reasonable amount than the full option amount. Supposing they don’t want to take Perez, I’m guessing Dave would shuffle the package to come up with something more along the lines of what they do want, and just buy Perez out.
Meanwhile, I quite agree that buying Edmonds out isn’t an automatic decision for the Cardinals. It wasn’t my assumption, hence the “If” statement.
#186: yep, I almost ended my post with “…and the Hot Stove is lit”
But seriously, in places like Boston and Philadelphia and NYC, it’s never really off.
That Philadelphia story also speculates that Moyer may actually come back to Seattle. That might be interesting, although I thought the trade was a good, graceful way to break the attachment before he loses effectiveness.
193. Or is Moyer the next Satchel Paige?
More importantly – Ken Levine is interested in coming back to Seattle to be a member of the M’s broadcast team. He said so in his blog…
Of course the M’s haven’t made any contact with him, and I doubt his fits their corporate image of the broadcast team….
191/Mike Snow responded to 188:
“Well, they’re getting the rights to three guys for free, that’s the point. And if you offset the additional savings against Perez’s option, the Cardinals are left paying roughly $700K to $1M for him. Which I’d say is a more reasonable amount than the full option amount.”
If they want Perez, they can get him for less than $3.7M (the $2M Dave wants them to pay coming back, plus Perez’ option if he made the same amount as ‘06; a recent post of Dave’s suggested he’ll make $2M, BTW) plus a couple of mid-level AA/AAA prospects. If Perez’s option is declined next year, does anybody think he’ll make much more than $750K? Given his struggles here (even considering how well he played in Cleveland) and his age, he might well be lucky to get that. So again, if that’s the case, is giving somebody the very valuable right to pay Jim Edmonds $10M for just one season nets you less than $2M and the rights to two mid-level (at best) prospects, is that realistic? Count me skeptical.
Excellent post, Dave. I was wondering who you would get to manage this offensive juggernaut you have created…
Make that, “. . . if that’s the case, is giving somebody the very valuable right to pay Jim Edmonds $10M for just one season nets you less than $1M and the rights to two mid-level (at best) prospects, is that realistic? Count me skeptical.
More Hot Stove Rumors. About Jason Schmidt.
I love the plans, but I really hate to see this team get older. Acquiring Manny or Bonds, Edmonds, and Cruz would make our outfield look ancient. I do feel we need to make a large splash, but I dont know if I want this team to get THAT much older.
I would rather pry Andruw Jones away from Atlanta than go after Edmonds or Bonds
I’d rather have Schmidt than Zito. I was down on Schmidt after his 2005 campaign, it looked like he’d lost a lot of velocity for whatever reason making him quite innefective. He bounced back well though.
201 – I don’t see Andruw Jones being available for the talent we’re willing to give up.
The deal for Edmonds makes sense because:
1) The Cardinals potentially buy out Edmonds’ option anyway
2) They get something for him in this instance
Andruw Jones is perhaps the face of that franchise, has become a perennial 40 homer guy with stellar defense. There’s no point for the Braves to move him.
Dave,
You said the Yankees would not trade a-rod. But, if the Yankees fail to win a World Series this year, and if A-ROD plays poorly… isn’t there a strong chance the Yankees would be forced to move A-ROD? I know he is unfairly blamed for a lot of things but I really wonder if he can afford to have a bad postseason if the Yankees don’t win it all.
If all this happened, do you think dangling Beltre who has hit well the last month and plays great defense, and maybe Soriano who could provide much needed bullpen help, be interesting to the Yankees?
You forget A-Rod’s no trade clause. The dude wants a ring, and he’s more likely to get it in New York than anywhere else.
And to EC, who suggested you need only look at Aaron and Ruth’s moves to the AL for reason not sign Bonds. Aaron’s last year in Atlanta, his EQA was .287. Bond’s EQA in 2006 was .341. Ruth is a closer comp (last year in NY, his EQA was .334, but that was a far different era medically, and in terms of training, as is Bond’s attitude towards training vis a vis Ruth. Those aren’t very persuasive comps, to me.
This is true- neither of them had access to Barry’s Special Non-Steroid-Containing Flaxseed Oil, and in both of their cases, they lost some from their ballparks going from their league. Then again, Barry’s not hurt by his home park in his splits. So I don’t know he gets a big boost from Safeco, either.
But here’s the thing- Ruth was also nearly useless in the field by the end of his career (much like Bonds), and it was clear his body was falling apart- and if you read material on Ruth, he was a pioneer in year-round conditioning in baseball (since he was one of the few players who could AFFORD to make baseball a year-round occupation). Aaron was a very well-conditioned guy, and he was coming downhill, too. I don’t think it’s at all reasonable to expect a plateau level of performance from a 43 year old with injury history who’s switching leagues for the first time, even if you shove him to DH to save his legs, and even if he’s been getting assists from BALCO for a few years prior that have helped stave off the typical performance declines you see in mid-to-late 30’s. Those performance declines sure seem to be showing up now, don’t they? I think you have to expect and plan for decline from 2006, and be nicely surprised if it doesn’t happen.
As such, I think there are sound baseball reasons to not make the highest-paid player on your team a 43 year old DH with clear performance declines all over his stats. You’re setting yourself up for paying premium money for a player who might not be in your lineup for the bulk of the season if he repeats 2005, or might be at .240/.400/.450 numbers if he slides some into the decline phase of his career. And then, on top of that, there’s all the non-baseball nonsense that you’re buying, the media circus surrounding Barry, which is only going to exponentially explode when combined with the race for the home run title… and again, I have no hesitation in not wanting Barry Bonds near my team.
#193– I took that to mean ‘return to Seattle’ to live, & not return to the Mariners — the Inquirer had quoted Moyer in another article saying:
“It’s a tough call. It really is. Right now, I don’t know. I haven’t put a whole lot of thought into it, but I’m not leaning one way or another. Living across the country is tough, I haven’t seen my kids since Labor Day. My wife [Karen] and I have never been apart more than two weeks since we’ve been married. This is the first time…. That all plays into it. But I think once I get home and let the dust settle a little bit and get back into family life, I’m sure my wife and I will sit down. It’s a bittersweet thing. Because in talking to my kids over this last month, some of them have struggled a little bit. But after I hear about their struggles, whatever they are on that given day, the next question is, ‘Did you win?’ There’s an excitement to it. I know they’re excited.”
as an aside, with the departure of Alou, Baker & Robinson, MLB is down to Randolph & Guillen as the faces of minority hiring. Does this mean they force teams to actually follow the MLB interview guidelines this year?
Regarding minority hiring: something like 1/3rd of the managers in MLB this year were ex-catchers. How many black catchers are playing right now? If MLB was serious about minority hiring for coaches shouldn’t they be trying, by whatever means, to get more minorities behind the plate?
And, there’s another thought: Seattle ownership toes the MLB line more than most. I wonder if they were worried that if they fired Hargrove at the end of this season they’d be on the hook to hire Baker? Not that there aren’t other qualified candidates but I can’t see the M’s braintrust having the guts to give anybody their first MLB coaching job, which cuts the field down considerably. Maybe hanging onto Hargrove for one more year was the least worst option?
EC wrote:
“. . .if you read material on Ruth, he was a pioneer in year-round conditioning in baseball (since he was one of the few players who could AFFORD to make baseball a year-round occupation).”
While I am certainly no expert on Ruth’s history, this does not jibe with anything I have ever read or heard, except perhaps about an infamous offseason after the 1922 season when he went at chopped wood all winter at his cabin. Ruth was famous for flirtin’ and boozin’, both in season and out – a man with huge appetites for virtually everything. Leaving aside the steroid question, or whether Bonds continues to take some form of performance-enhancer, I don’t think you can make an argument with a straight face that Ruth was better conditioned than Bonds, or that modern medicine and training techniques haven’t helped him extend his career.
The injury stuff you mention is helped by a switch to DH, no question. And as for your (rehetorical?) question
“Those [typical performance declines you see in mid-to-late 30's]sure seem to be showing up now, don’t they?”
Well, sure, we’ve seen some decline, but from historically unsurpassed levels. Bonds dropped from .362/.609/.812 (.456 EQA, 260 OPS+) two seasons ago to more human levels of .286/.404/.667 in 2005 (.342 EQA, 177 OPS+), and .270/.454/.545 (.341 EQA; not sure of the OPS+ but I’d bet it is north of 160, or maybe even 170). this year, he missed almost all of ST and most of the first part of the year with an injury that will very definitely be alleviated by not having to play the field. As the season progressed, he hit better (.292/.430/.596 post-ASB, and quite a bit better than that after Aaugust 1). There isn’t a lot of evidence that his bat speed is slowing, or that even with this “decline,” he wouldn’t be a supremely productive player. I am suggesting we pay Bonds akin to what we are paying Richie. You don’t think Bonds can put up significantly better numbers than Richie has, in either of the last couple of years, and that that wouldn’t provide a significant value to the line-up (especially given that both his OBP and SLG will be better than Sexson’s, and I don’t think Bonds will be any slower than Sexson was, either). It’s a one-year deal. Frankly, Richie is at least as good a bet to fall of a cliff for the same kind of money, doesn’t have the same upside or potential effect on the line-up. [BTW, .240/.400/.450 is not far off of what Sexson "recovered" to this year, for the same money.] You can expect a decline and still be pretty sure he will earn the money I think he’ll end up with. Hell, there is a decent chance he is the Frank Thomas of 2007, where he takes far less than you would ever expect. His situation is definitely worth monitoring.
I understand perfectly well the non-baseball stuff that makes you not want to consider it. I guess that stuff bothers me less than it does you, and I expect better baseball performance than you do, too. I am perfectly fine with anybody who says “I would never consider it, for non-baseball reasons” but I’ll argue the baseball side of it without blinking, for sure.
I think you have to expect and plan for decline from 2006, and be nicely surprised if it doesn’t happen.
Also, SBC (or whatever it’s called) is considered a pitcher’s park. Not along the lines of what Safeco’s considered, but I would bet that the park effects split for LHs at Safeco is more favorable than it is for LHs at SBC. Bonds won’t be hurt by a move to Safeco. Switching leagues might be detrimental, but I think a guy with his eye and plate discipline minimizes that to a large extent.
209 – You may be right. I think upper mgmt isn’t committing to a new manager next year in case they fire the GM as well in ‘07.
The Ms aren’t a tough org to figure out. They’ll give Bavasi and Hargrove one more year win or lose, if the team doesn’t make the playoffs then they cut both loose, bring in a new GM and let him make his own hire.
I highly doubt that they’re purposely keeping Hargrove to avoid hiring Baker, or any other candidate out there right now. I really believe Lincoln & Co. think Hargrove and Bavasi honestly deserve one more year.
They’re wrong, but that’s the way they’ve chosen to run the show.
I guess I should make it clear that I am not advocating the M’s sign Barry Bonds. I am on board with Dave’s plan to pursue Manny as a preferable option, but failing that, I think he is among 3-4 other options that ought to be considered.
Dave –
Just curious to get your impressions of Joe Sheehan’s comments regarding a potential Burrell for Beltre swap (I think I can guess your response from the above, but thought it would be interesting to hear it anyway):
Joe Sheehan: If you’d rather have Adrian Beltre and his contract rather than Pat Burrell’s and his, you’re too far gone to mention. Beltre has been awful, while Burrell is productive, just not as much as Phillies fans want him to be. The Phillies would be helped if they’d bat him between Utley and Howard, instead of giving away the platoon advantage late in close games.
Beltre is one of the worst FA contracts in recent memory, and I said so at the time.
I rack Bonds as a solid plan B. He’s the first guy I pursue if I can’t have Manny.
Joe Sheehan is an idiot.
Joe Sheehan: If you’d rather have Adrian Beltre and his contract rather than Pat Burrell’s and his, you’re too far gone to mention. Beltre has been awful
Dave: Joe Sheehan is an idiot
All right, everyone, together….park effects!
Dave I really like what you’ve done with roster creation. All of the pieces make sense. My first pondering on the Manny situation (3 hours ago when I started reading) was with the history of Manny-Hargrove. I recall the comments Manny made about coming here under Hargrove. Is it possible that this move is a reason that the FO hasn’t moved on replacing Hardgroove? Would they look seriously at this option?
On the positive side making a splash like bringing in Manny would be gauranteed to improve ticket sales (beyond what signing Bonds would.) I don’t think any other single plausible move could increase sales as much, including Matsuzaka. For you and I to see the value of DM over Manny as his effect is likelier to be longer term is not to say the ticketbuying public would even see signing DM as more than “hopefully he’s better than Joel.” The FO must be seriously considering how to increase sales for the least money. It would seem that this costs $5 million or so a year, our only clear backup for J.J., and a complimentary piece.
Would a FO who’s building a young team that could use more pop look at someone who’s in the latter stages of thier career for it? Manny could have 5+ more productive years, conceivably. Is the money still due to him far beyond what they’re willing to budget for one player? That amount would seem to pretty much tie thier hands for the ‘07-’08 offseason leaving at most $10-12 million available for acquisitions and a hole in LF (departure of Edmonds.) Obviously that money can slip away quickly as players get thier increases including the $1.5 million increase you just signed Ichiro to and the 2 million increase in Ramirez’s salary. In 2008 Ichiro and Manny would combine for $34 million of 90? It seems like a great idea for 07 but not 08.
While I am certainly no expert on Ruth’s history, this does not jibe with anything I have ever read or heard, except perhaps about an infamous offseason after the 1922 season when he went at chopped wood all winter at his cabin. Ruth was famous for flirtin’ and boozin’, both in season and out – a man with huge appetites for virtually everything.
Ruth started offseason workouts after his trainwreck of a 1925 season, with a trainer in Florida- and cut back on the boozin a lot after that year in order to prolong his career. Source.
I am suggesting we pay Bonds akin to what we are paying Richie. You don’t think Bonds can put up significantly better numbers than Richie has, in either of the last couple of years, and that that wouldn’t provide a significant value to the line-up (especially given that both his OBP and SLG will be better than Sexson’s, and I don’t think Bonds will be any slower than Sexson was, either). It’s a one-year deal. Frankly, Richie is at least as good a bet to fall of a cliff for the same kind of money, doesn’t have the same upside or potential effect on the line-up.
I’m not arguing Sexson’s the best choice for the M’s going forward, either. But I think an argument of “Sexson’s going to dive off of a cliff because he’ll be 33 next year and he’s not that great, so let’s sign a 43 year old with injury history at DH because he’s a Hall of Famer” is a rather peculiar way to manage risk of age-related performance decline from your lineup.
And by the way: guess which position player had the highest VORP on the Giants? Hint: not Barry Bonds. For all Barry’s awesomeness, he was 20th in his league in VORP (and somewhere in the 50s in MLB), behind guys like Alfonso Soriano. There’s something to be said for a lesser player (like Ray Durham) playing every day, rather than a better player who can’t stay in the lineup. and meaning you end up playing a player much closer to replacement value 30 games a year.
You can expect a decline and still be pretty sure he will earn the money I think he’ll end up with. Hell, there is a decent chance he is the Frank Thomas of 2007, where he takes far less than you would ever expect.
Um, who is going to come out to a ballpark next year and see Frank Thomas break the most vaunted MLB record in its rather long history?
Yeah, I thought so. You don’t think that the attendance boost from having a home run chase in your ballpark, and the accompanying TV ratings, is going to factor into Barry’s contract demands just a wee bit differently than it would in Frank Thomas’s?
To put it another way: I don’t know if “You suck compared to last year’s salary, here’s a 30% salary cut to play DH, but you’re going to be a difference-maker in our lineup and get people to come out and see you break Aaron’s record” is the best negotiating position to be take. That seems to be what you’re advocating.
And I’m completely unconvinced a franchise that’s flat on its back, playing its worst baseball in the last 20 years, needs a prima donna, immobile, expensive and old DH with a veritable freight train of trailing baggage, even if he’s still a HOF-caliber hitter- especially when combined with a manager and GM who are basically down to their last strike. It sounds like a recipe for a three-ring media circus that if it blows up could set the franchise back a few years, not a way to build a contending team in 2007.
Dave,
That’s what I thought you’d say, but I still wanted to read it!
PS I agree.
I haveto retract that being as 4 million of Ramirez’s salary for 07 and 08 will be deferred until 2011 and beyond according to mlb4u.com. The deferred information would be difficult for 2 teams to keep track of seperately with how it’s explained here.
All right, everyone, together….park effects!
Joe Sheehan would be an idiot in any park in America.
Oh, you meant, for Beltre. Yea.
If Beltre came out next year, hit .450/.650/.950 with 75 HRs (without moving the walls one bit), and single-handedly led the M’s to a 120-win season and the first ever 11-0 postseason, Joe Sheehan would STILL call Beltre a failure, deride Bavasi for signing him to such a huge contract, and spend the year spitting bile Seattle’s way. And he’d get on Felix’s case, too, while he’s at it.
The only thing better would be if the M’s swept his Yanks out of the ALCS.
At last year’s mid-season feed I asked Jonah why Sheehan hated Seattle so much. He didn’t really respond.
Dave
What are your thoughts on how 2008 would be affected by these moves. It looks to me as though you deferred or backloaded DM’s contract. If he’s making $30m over 3 but only $6.5m in the first that leaves $24.5m over 2. Say that’s $10m second year and $14.5 third year?
In 2008 you would have a starting LF($8m), Backup C($1m), 4th SP($1m), 4th OF (500K) and utility (850K bloomquist) coming off the books meaning you have $11.35 million to spend on those 5 spots, with no other problems having occurred. Not so fast. Just the $3.5 million increase between Ichiro and Manny plus the $3.5m increase to Matsuzaka equals $7 million left to replace a SP and LF and Backup C and 4th OF and Util before you pay the increases in salary for all the young players on the team. Does this include asking ownership for a $10 million dollar increase in payroll for 2008 or trading Beltre for Christmas ‘07?
jumping on Joe, IIRC, wasn’t there a comment about Sheehan’s pre-season guestimate that the A’s would mop up the West with 101 wins?
They came in with 93 wins and would have been at what, 85? 86? if the Ms had managed just .500 against them…
sigh.
I meant $7 million leaving 4.35 million to replace 5 spots…
And obviously DM would only get 13.5 million in 2009 with those figures, that is however irrellevant to the 07-08 offseason.
Ibanez is making $5.5 million in 07 and 08
EC – I am not that interested in whether Ruth was a workout monster relative to his peers or not — my only point was that, today, players careers extend beyond what they did in Ruth’s time (even for those who were relatively good about training – a point I’m not sure I am ready to concede about Ruth but will for the purposes of this discussion) because of modern training techniques, better nutrition, better medicine, etc. You seem to want to sidestep that, and discuss Ruth, so I’ll ask again: do you seriously contend Ruth was a better trained, better conditioned athlete than Bonds is? Do you dispute that it is reasonable to expect that Bonds’ decline might begin at a later age because of that, as well as the differences in age patterns for their body types at skill sets? I really don’t see evidence of some massive decline. There has been some decline, but only to still-superstar levels.
As for Richie vs. Bonds, and managing decline-related risk: I don’t think that is the point so much as bringing in a “feared” hitter, a guy who is a difference-maker for the offense. Don’t you think Barry Bonds has a better chance to be that next year than Sexson does? That said, you are managing that risk by eliminating the last two years of Sexson’s contract in favor of one year of Bonds at a similar salary. The one year of Bonds, even though he is 10 years older, is less risky than two of Richie.
I am not suggesting a “negotiating strategy” of insulting Bonds in any way. I am simply stating what I think he is worth to this team, and I don’t think there is a huge market for his services. If he is insulted by that, I could give a shit less. I don’t think he is worth more, and may be worth less if there is not much market for him (as I suspect).
Finally, you seem to imply that Bonds will get more money because of the butts-in-the-seat, HR-chase stuff, while simultaneously arguing that it would be foolish for a team to pursue him despite the fact he fills a need for that team, because the circus he’ll generate won’t be worth it from a non-baseball perspective. Maybe you can, but I don’t think you can argue that both ways (at least not very effectively). My viewpoint is that Bonds will bring baseball negatives (clubhouse prima donna, won’t be healthy for more than 120 games, etc) as well as positives, and that his enourmous non-baseball negatives (might be indicted, might be suspended, generates as much negative fan reaction as excitement, sends a bad message to minor leaguers re: substance abuse, and so on) will offset any expected boost in attendance you might expect. All in all, while I don’t think it is likely, it is certainly possible that Bonds could be a “late and low” sign much as Thomas was last year.
As for your last paragraph, as I said before, I have no problem with somebody who believes Bonds’ non-baseball negatives are an insurmountable obstacle to even considering him. I don’t feel that way, but understand the sentiment. I’m just saying that from a baseball standpoint, he deserves to be in the discussion, comes cheaper than other options, and doesn’t cost you anything to acquire.
Bonds would cost a second round draft selection.
I’d be happy and hopeful if Bonds did sign, but I don’t think he’s the best choice. I also don’t think the deal to get Pujols would be worth it, but the M’s FO has proven they can do much worse than Bonds.
Wishiker wrote:
“Bonds would cost a second round draft selection.”
Only if the Giants offer him arbitration, and he declines. They won’t, largely because he wouldn’t. He won’t cost the M’s anything except whatever they need to pay him.
Also, any proposal to get Pujols is completely unrealistic. At least there is a reasonable argument that Manny, Helton, Dunn, Bonds, Edmonds, will be available. Why on earth would the Cards trade Pujols for anybody?
So, let’s say all of these moves happen as Dave suggests.
How “Hargrove-proofed” is this potential roster? I.e. how much do his known tendencies (dislike for playing young players, poor bullpen management, the love affair with Willie Bloomquist) affect this potential roster?
Livengood…I was saying that what you’d haveto send them wouldn’t be worth it…but that Pujols would be my first choice otherwise
I wonder if Cruz would be playing everyday ahead of Snelling.
There is no roster that is Hargrove-proof. There can be no roster that is Hargrove-proof. We could construct one, and he’d find a new way to manage it into the ground. Bonds took the contract? Hargrove wants him to bunt. Manny’s on the roster? Hey, he gets to platoon in LF with Raul…when he’s not gathering dust on the bench because Bloomquist is starting. Trying to Hargrove-proof a roster is like trying to drink beer out of a net.
No roster Hargrove-proof? How about ‘dem 90’s Indians rosters?
Nice JAS…
I wasn’t intending to turn this into another Bash Hargrove discussion. We have enough of those.
My question was more along the lines of “was this roster constructed with Hargrove’s tendencies being a factor, with an eye towards minimizing his shortcomings”?
Or was that not even a consideration?
Given that Dave wrote something that sounds both sane and sober, I’m willing to bet he spent as little time thinking about Hargrove as possible.
It’s an interesting idea, though: having so little faith in your manager that you construct a roster to give him as few opportunities to screw things up as possible. Putting the “fun” in dysfunctional organization, that would be.
It’s an interesting idea, though: having so little faith in your manager that you construct a roster to give him as few opportunities to screw things up as possible
I dunno…that might be the perfect way to construct a roster….
If it were me, I’d really prefer to pick players that my Manager would be able to use positively for his style and preferences. Maybe that’s just saying the same thing in a different way.
Joser my conclusion thus far is that Dave didn’t think of how these moves would impact 2008 salary, but until he responds I won’t know for sure. If he started this a month ago I doubt that during the first 3 weeks he was much worried that Hargrove would be back. If he wasn’t worried about Hargrove he wouldn’t have built it to overcome his managing (hence not trading Bloomy.)
Very surprised that you would keep WFB around. Reminds that I came across an autographed Shane Monahan ball (also has The Chief and Payrod sigs)that I put up for auction yesterday but it got me thinking….who was a better outfielder or utilityman based on versatility and skill: Shane Monahan, WFB, or Charles Gipson? It was nice to see Raul break out of that role a few years back and I guess that’s why he insists on playing the field to make up for lost time…hmm.
Dave, what’s your source for contract amounts?
Player – Your 2007 $ – mlb4u.com 2007 $
Manny Ramirez – $19,000,000 – $18,000,000 (-4 million deferred, +1 million trade bonus, +650K incentives)
Kenji Johjima – $5,430,000 – $5,200,000(+300K in possible escalators, 2 interpreters and 12 round trips for his family to Japan)
Ichiro Suzuki – $12,500,000 – $11,000,000(+500k incentives, 31K housing allowance, interpreter, personal trainer, ground transportation during spring training and the regular season and 4 tickets from Japan to Seattle twice a year
Raul Ibanez – $5,000,000 – $5,500,000
out of the 8 players who’s salary for ‘07 has already been determined
Interesting note: for both 2006 and 2007 Bloomquists only incentives are PA linked and worth up to $250K each year
Dave, what’s your source for contract amounts?
Player – Your 2007 $ – mlb4u.com 2007 $
Manny Ramirez – $19,000,000 – $18,000,000 – $4m deferred, +$1m trade bonus $650k incentives
Ichiro Suzuki – $12,500,000 – $11,000,000 + $500k incentives, 31K housing allowance, an interpreter, personal trainer, ground transportation during spring training and the regular season, and 4 plane tickets from Japan to Seattle twice a year
Kenji Johjima – $5,430,000 – 5,200,000 + $300K incentives, English classes, 2 interpreters(his and hers) and 12 round trips for his family from Japan
Raul Ibanez – $5,000,000 – $5,500,000
That’s four for eight that I’m finding different info. Eight players in your plan who have set salaries for 2007.
Incidentally Bloomquists incentives of up to $250K each in 2006 and 2007 are all tied to PA.
I don’t understand why the Ms would want to rely on right-handed power or pitching. You have a cavernous left field. The Ms seem like they’re in the pretty unique position of being able to build a huge, huge advantage at home with a team that fits the park.
Dave, what’s your source for contract amounts?
This has been mentioned numerous times before, but contract amounts are usually guesswork. You’ll note that MLB.com’s numbers wont match a lot of other place’s numbers either. The approximations are usually sound and within a + or – of 10-20% of the contract’s annual value. Though I see where you’re going with this, the final total of the budget wouldn’t waver enough to matter.
The Mariners budget isn’t set in stone. Though some believe it’s 89 million or bust, but not allowing flexibility would hamper any attempts at a functional roster. Obviously Bavasi doesn’t have a blank check, and can’t push the budget too high over 89, but anywhere from a few hundred thousand to a million more wouldn’t bust someone’s chops. Likewise, coming in under the 89 million budget would be more beneficial as it would allow some maneuvering during the season and / or late spring training dumpster diving pickups.
The Ms seem like they’re in the pretty unique position of being able to build a huge, huge advantage at home with a team that fits the park.
Wow, way to not read through the other comments or previous posts.
Saying that the M’s should build a team that fits their park, in particular your suggestion of avoiding right-handed batters, is like suggesting that they build their players themselves out of uranium and platinum. Even if it were possible, it’d be outrageously expensive.
Looks like I picked the wrong day to be off-line
250 comments, wow!
I like the idea of Manny, but is he that much better than Sexson and $5M to spend? BP has Ramirez at 63 BRAR (and he’s consistently at that level) and Sexson at 35 BRAR. That’s 28 runs difference which is ~3 wins. And 3W is worth $5-6M so just looking at offense, I see a slight gain. But, Sexson has some value on defense — I don’t believe he’s as great as BP says but he’s above replacement level at 1B, while Manny is about replacement level in LF. And Sexson did that despite disappearing in April and May. Am I looking at the wrong numbers here? Are you assuming Ramirez will continue at that level and Sexson will fall off? Or is there extra value in “super star” players beyond $2M/win?
Independent of that move, Cruz Jr looks to be a great addition and is exactly what the Mariners needs as a 4th OF — someone who can play all three positions and mashes LHP. That said, the Dodgers have the same need and cut him loose and no one picked him up, so I wonder/worry if there’s a story there.
#242– who was a better outfielder or utilityman based on versatility and skill: Shane Monahan, WFB, or Charles Gipson?
well, we know that Shane is a better manager
Typical Idiot…
My main Payroll question is if he planned to have a starting LF, #4 starting pitcher, Backup catcher, Utility and 4th outfielder signed for 2008 with the 4.35 million dollars that at present would put this team at 89 million for 2008. That’s not including pay increases for the young players and resolving any injury replacement or the first baseman he may need to acquire.
I love the idea and thrust of this plan. I think that there’s no available player that would have the impact of Manny. It just doesn’t seem to leave any room for error. If you win the WS in 2007 the 2008 payroll might rise enough to make this viable. Otherwise I see a salary dump in the near future. How would the fanbase react to the team trading Manny, Ichiro or Beltre in the offseason after thier first contention in 4 years? Unless a couple pitchers move through the system very quickly and you can find a fit to unload Washburns backloaded contract, this seems the most likely scenario for 2008.
BTW I hate backloading
If you win the WS in 2007 the 2008 payroll might rise enough to make this viable. Otherwise I see a salary dump in the near future. How would the fanbase react to the team trading Manny, Ichiro or Beltre in the offseason after thier first contention in 4 years? Unless a couple pitchers move through the system very quickly and you can find a fit to unload Washburns backloaded contract, this seems the most likely scenario for 2008.
Really? If this team competes in October 2007, I don’t think there’s any way attendance for 2008 goes down. That means re-entry into the playoffs, and with a “name” like a Manny, that means credibility to the casual fan.
It’s when they DON’T make the playoffs that folks should worry (and that’s applicable with ANY roster…)
EC wrote:
“And by the way: guess which position player had the highest VORP on the Giants? Hint: not Barry Bonds. For all Barry’s awesomeness, he was 20th in his league in VORP (and somewhere in the 50s in MLB), behind guys like Alfonso Soriano.”
Ray Durham had a great year, but your (implied) argument that he had a better year than Bonds is flawed. VORP is essentially a counting stat. If you look at VORPr – which is a rate stat and accounts for Bonds’ time lost to injury – Bonds’ was .400 to Durham’s .366. Among all NL batters with at least 450 PA, Bonds was 8th in VORPr (behind only Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran). By another offensive value-measuring rate stat, MLVr, Bonds was 7th in the league.
“There’s something to be said for a lesser player (like Ray Durham) playing every day, rather than a better player who can’t stay in the lineup. and meaning you end up playing a player much closer to replacement value 30 games a year.”
I’m not sure that is always true. It depends on how many games the better player misses, and what the difference in VORPr or MLVr (or RC/GP, or any other rate stat you choose) is between the better player and the lesser replacement. You have to add in the difference between the fragile-but-better player, and his lesser-skilled-but-durable counterpart, over the games FragileBoy will play, and then you can subtract out the difference between FragileBoy and his replacement. My guess is it is at worst a wash, and probably you come out ahead by using a better but more fragile player. Of course, any player can miss a larger bulk of the season than expected, and some are a riskier bet than others, but all of that has to be part of your risk/reward analysis.
Of course, if you go get a fragile player, you need to construct a better bench, and I’m sure in reality we’re both skeptical of the Mariners’ ability to do this, and Hargrove’s ability to utilize it properly if they did. But I’m not sure I would automatically reach the conclusion you have — that it is always better to choose a lesser but more durable player. this is a theory that could be tested with simulations, using various roster constructions and assumptions about how much time various players will miss. I don’t have the time or the skills to do that, but I think the answers would be interesting.
#251 I’m not talking about massive salary dump. I’m talking about the FO not raising payroll. I don’t think any of us see it as likely that after the lowest attendance since 95, payroll is going to increase much. If they did make it to the WS in 2007 attendance would increase dramatically in 2008, not 2007. If they only make the playoffs and fall short, the fanbase will expect that little bit of improvement to get over the top.
If you’re filling the same spots (LF,#4SP,4OF,BC,Util) at the same dollar amounts ($11.35m) from ‘07 and the total pay increases for all the young players comes to $2 million you’re looking at a $96 million payroll for 2008. That’s before the upgrade (say $5million). 7-12 million dollar Payroll increase plan for 2008? You either include this or a contract removal for 2008 with this 2007 plan.
#251 I’m not talking about massive salary dump. I’m talking about the FO not raising payroll. I don’t think any of us see it as likely that after the lowest attendance since 95, payroll is going to increase much. If they did make it to the WS in 2007 attendance would increase dramatically in 2008, not 2007. If they only make the playoffs and fall short, the fanbase will expect that little bit of improvement to get over the top.
Yes? And attendance will increase. Probably ticket prices as well (any competent bean counter will tuck in an inflation adjuster). If they make the WS in 2007, they’re not going to dramatically increase payroll anyway.
Make the playoffs in ‘07, no matter how far they go, attendance will increase for ‘08 and they can make plans accordingly.
All I’m saying is that with this plan it looks like you’re either raising payroll by aprox. $10 million in 2008 or dumping more contracts. This after an aprox. $4million in payroll increase($85m/’06-$89m/’07) after the lowest attendance figures in 11 years.
The more I look at Thomas, The more I like the idea. Thomas was the only AL player to have 35+ HR w less than 100 SO (39/81.) Only Pujols 49/50 was significantly better. Also including Ortiz (54/117/119), Pujols (49/50/92), Giambi (37/106/110), Garrett Atkins (29/76/79) and Bonds (26/51/115), Thomas (39/81/81) was one of only 6 MLB players to hit 25+ HR and not have more SO than BB. Thomas just became the oldest player to have a multi-homer postseason game. He’s LH and would be signifficantly cheaper while providing more than most other options.
Frank Thomas is right-handed.
Yeah…oops
The overall design here I agree with, and many of the acquisitions I’m all for. There are for me two serious deal breakers, but even if the transactions involved didn’t go quite that way, your overall model could be put in place.
Problems: 1) Ibanez is absolutely awful at 1B, significantly worse at that position than he is in LF. Folks keep talking about moving him there, but every time I’ve seen him, he’s stiff, has no range, and a stone glove. He has been ’shoved out to 1b’ at times—but he doesn’t want to play there and isn’t comfortable there accordingly. To me, the only positions he can play are LF or DH, and we’ll suffer mightily if he’s put anywhere else. Given that a major offensive upgrade is easier to swing at DH, he should probably remain in LF—or be dealt. Yes, that should be the deal, move Raul while his value has taken a bump upward off a fine year, but I know it won’t happen, so I’ll leave it at that. 2) I’m not down with the package for Edmonds. Now, I’m a _big_ fan of Jim Edmonds, and acquiring him is something I’ve hoped the Ms would do for _years_, specifically when they went out and signed Beltre and Sexson. I know, Dave, that the guys you are sending out in this package are on your ’sell now and high’ list, so the design is clear. The reverse is true for me: I’d like to see how Balentien and Thomas play out in ‘07 before dealing them. Also, I think there is zero (0) probability of Edmonds making it through any season healthy, so dealing a bunch of value for a guy who is going to be dinged up most of his time here is pushing the envelope. I don’t have a big problem with acquiring him, but the deal and his role need some very careful consideration, and I’m not sure the balance is optimal as proposed here. 3) Manny is a personnel management problem very few teams can handle; specifically, the Ms are unlikely to be able to cope with him. Bavasi and Hargrove vs. an indespensible maximum contract far outside the org’s comfort zone?? I don’t see that workind. I like his bat, and I love the idea of getting a major bat. It’s hard for me to see this one work out. Much more like the /Kevin Mitchell era’ in my view. That said, one player and their contract does not make or break a team.
That said, overall points of agreement: 1) Dealing Sexson, Broussard, Perez, Mateo, and most of the rest makes perfect sense, as they clearly cannot take the Ms to another level, and may not end up having any significant value at all. I say that even though I think it’s a lock that Sexson has a better offensive season than Beltre next year (because decline or not his year by year offensive value exceeds that of Beltre), but I’m already on record saying _both_ should be moved. If the Ms are not going to convert Soriano into a starter, I’m fine with them dealing him, and I love the guy. But the Ms have too many power relievers to over-value any of them, more of them on the way, and moving somebody to upgrade the team is a natural. Rafey is oldest and most shopworn, but also has the most proven value, so he’s the obvious guy. 2) Acquiring Matsuzaka would be ideal. My gut tells me that the highest bid for him _won’t_ come from the Mariners however; just ones man’s vibrations. If that’s the case, the Ms FO are going to panic and throw money at some other veteran, and that knocks the financials into the circular filme, but all that’s a second-level what-if. 4) Picking up Jose Cruz as the 4th OFer, and I thought this should have happened two years ago. He’s far from perfect, but his positives match well with what is needed. 5) I like the idea of picking up Guzman, Lopez is no worse than most other options and may well be better, and Redding is also a useful guy better than most in house options at modest $, so yeah, yeah, yeah. Even more, yeah to the idea of trying out some of these ‘change of scenery’ guys; it has to be done, and the upside/$$ ratio comes out much better than signing another Washburn. 6) Hargrove doesn’t use his defensive subs sensibly, so it really doesn’t matter that it’s Bloomquist and Navarro, and the team saves money by staying in house, so fine. 7) You keep the best guys in the bullpen rather than move them, and the pen should be outstanding again, which is best, don’t break up that strength no matter how you mix and match packages.
So, if the team acquires either Ramirez _or_ Edmonds, and swings Raul Ibanez to fill whichever role the acquisition can’t it’s the same basic plan.
And #36 Dave, yes, I think that is exactly the plan the team will pursue in the offseason. Lincoln is as locked into the idea that he can buy his way back to respectability as he was locked out of the idea that he needed to invest to make a winner better before, and the org is terrified of trades, having muffed rather a few under Bavasi’s tenure, and too many to name way back under Woodward.
The idea of using Mike Morse as a good-glove 1Bman is quite interesting, and I think he could actually bring it off. His hands are fairly good, and he is teachable as far as I can tell; it’s his feet that are sub-par, but that can work OK at 1B given his size. It’s the first real idea I’ve heard about how to realize some value from the guy. Hmmm.
Re: Trading Sexson, who we get back for him is NOT irrelevant. Particularly given how he ended the year, the Ms have a chance to play more than one team off another for him, and to leverage the best talent return. And to me, it’s the _talent return_ for him which is more important than the salary cleared; yes, the latter matters, especially with the idea of signing Matsuzaka and acquiring a major bat. But really, we could get back more—or even do a Sexson-for-Ramirez plus sweeteners on either side. Think big here, not just about shipping out a guy many are down on.
I’d happily see the package going to Boston for Ramirez proposed here go to Cincy for Dunn, or add Balentien for the Reds putting in someone else of comparable value, too. Adam isn’t the hitter that Manny is, and both _MUST_ DH, but Dunn won’t cost as $$much$$ and I suspect will match up to the park really well. Someone mentioned above that Manny may ask to have his option picked up to come, something I think more than likely as well, so he becomes 3-at-$19M, injuries included. Dunn at, say, 3-for-much less is easier to swallow. The _idea_ of Manny, attractive as it may be, shouldn’t blind one to the fact that others bring similar if not comparable value.
First time posting, here are some of my own thoughts:
1. Offense
Though I think pitching is more of a priority than hitting, it could do better. The Mariner’s offense was not too awful, I still hate the fact that it heavily relies on Sexson and Beltre so a trade for Manny would be the perfect solution. Ichiro is Ichiro, Ibanez is doing good, and the youngsters are definitely developing, so the offense is bound to get better as long as there aren’t any huge injuries. Johjima is proving a consistent bat as a catcher, something the Mariners haven’t had in a while, and there is no reason why he should not continue to be consistent. Though Beltre was showing signs of improvement towards the end of the season (and so was Sexson), I still cannot trust these two, so at least one has to go… As long as the Mariners are able to aquire a good power hitter to score Ichiro, they should be fine. I actually think Bonds could be worth it depending on the price, but since Bonds will probably contribute the most by walking, you still need a big bat to drive him in. Bonds will be a nice No.3 hitter, but the key to success will be the No.4 hitter. So in other words, in terms of offense Manny (or somebody close to his calibur) should be their No.1 priority. (and probably one good hitter like him is worth more than 2 above-average hitters)
2. Pitching
Though I rather watch a team with great offense, pitching is what wins games. For example, though this is not the best way to prove my point, the easiest way to see is to check the top run scoring teams vs. the top low-ERA teams.
Top runs scored
Yankees
Cleveland
White Sox
Phillies
Braves
Rangers
Lowest ERAs
Tigers
Padres
Twins
Angels
Astros
Mets
Yes, obviously it all has to do with balance, and stadiums will have a huge effect on these numbers, but you can see that the lower list contains 4 playoff teams + 1 which almost made it, compared to the 1 playoff team in the higher list…
Felix should improve we hope, he probably won’t be like a Liriano but has the potential to become something close to that. Signing Matsuzaka will be tough, it will cost a ton (my guess is the Yankees will bid at about 30M, not sure if the Mariners can afford that), but I am sure it will be worth it. (not just as a player) His toughness and stability is something the Mariners need. So, like most people have said, signing him should be the No.1 priority. On the same line, picking up another Japanese SP and/or RP would be good. One option could be Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers who wants to come to the Majors. He is not a monster like Matsuzaka but he also is pretty tough and consistent. They could also look for a RP whilling to give the majors a try for cheap, and it will not be a huge risk since Japanese pitches (especially relief pitches) have already proven themselves, like Sasaki / Hasegawa of the Mariners, or Otsuka and Saito who are both great closers right now.
I am not too sure if breaking down the bullpen is such a great idea unless you have a good idea on how to build one back up quickly and efficiently. I am not expert on the prospects so I will let the experts decide, a good bullpen is always good to have and usually pretty cheap to make (with the exception of the closer, but no need to worry about that for a while)
With all that said, I really hope something like what Dave proposed will happen… this club has such potential…
Not that anyone’s still reading, but…
What about Gary Sheffield instead if trading for Manny doesn’t pan out? I’m unaware of the contract status but it seems that the Yankees have a surplus and are more likely to hang on to Abreu…
Sheffield has most of the negatives Bonds does (old, implicated in steroids, breaking down even more, something less of a clubhouse issue but still some) and not as much offensive upside. Bigger issue may be that the Yankees have a club option (not sure what they have to pay, if anything, to decline it), so the situation may be more like Edmonds (we give something up – hopefully not too much, and with $$ coming back – to get the ability to get one year of Sheffield at apprx. $13M) than Bonds.
I think he deserves to be on the list, but I’d tread carefully there, especially on the injury side of things.
I could handle a few of the possible blockbusters the Yankees and Mariners could put together. One problem with finding them as trade partners in anything big. They both have the same need, SP. I’d love to talk about getting a big bat from the largest surplus, but unless we’re willing to trade Ichiro or Felix I don’t see a partner in NY.
P.S. I wouldn’t mind Cabrera or even Matsui.
Cliff Floyd is a FA and looks like the best available answer for LH high OPS for LF or DH.
Speaking of that there’s been alot of talk on one side that the M’s need more LH power and on the other that LH power is rare. I don’t see how something being rare makes it non-essential.
LH & SW hitters with High OBP and power/High OPS…Hafner, Howard, Ortiz, Berkman, Thome, Chipper, Bonds, Beltran, Giambi, Morneau, Delgado, Sizemore, J.D.Drew, Matsui, Edmonds, Tiexiera, Utley, Abreu, Helton, Giles, Laroche, McCann, Hawpe, Overbay, N. Johnson, Posada, Swisher, Dunn, Damon, Duncan, Adrian Gonzalez, Mauer, Floyd and Ibanez.
That’s 34 players plus or minus. This list isn’t all inclusive, you may argue that a couple don’t belong and/or are missing. Point is there’s more of these type of players than there are reliable closers. A reliable closer is essential. I say even more so because it’s rare (not less so.) You are even less likely to have one than someone who’s made it a priority.
Only 2 of these are Free Agents at the end of 2006: Barry Bonds and Cliff Floyd. You can watch Floyd this postseason in the NL’s best lineup with 2 others that fans in recent years wanted to see sign with Seattle (Beltran and Delgado.) You may notice that the other team with 3+ of these is the other NY,(also in the postseason/AL’s best lineup) who has 4. Although some will consider Damon a stretch, others might argue that Cabrera will be there in a year or two.
These players were all developed by a Minor League system. Aprox. half of this list has signed FA contracts with at least a second team. They aren’t entirely unobtainable either, are they.
Others that may be available are (obviously Edmonds via trade or buyout/FA sign) J.D. Drew who can opt out of his contract after 2006 season (doubt it will happen) and a Yankees OFer if you’ve got SP to trade for one.
Floyd, although turning 34 in December, looks like a good answer to me. He hasn’t played in the AL aside from 47 games with the Red Sox in 2002. It all depends on what his market is.
If he could be had for a reasonable price I’d go after Abreu. Since the M’s don’t have SP to part with, the price would probably not be reasonable for them.
#247
I read the whole thread, including the comments.
Lefty hitters discussed:
Edmonds
Barry Bonds (a bit)
Lefty pitchers discussed:
none.
Every other player anyone’s talked about bringing in is a righty.
Did I miss something? I don’t think so.
Manny does have decent power to all fields relative to other righty sluggers, but wouldn’t you rather invest in someone with power to right field? Wouldn’t you rather invest in pitchers who better neutralize lefty sluggers? Assuming the Ms bring in talent for about the same price as other teams, the Ms are getting less per dollar out of the players who don’t fit the park.
Just getting warmed up in searching the “hot stove” for potential trade partners. Question: Would Florida be a suitable place to send Reed? I love the proposed Manny deal, but i have a hard time seeing Boston settling with a 2007 outfield of Crisp, Reed, and a FA RF (or a resigned Nixon). I think after their drop off they will be looking to be making a bigger splash than sending Jeremy Reed out to CF.
FL has 4 above league replacement to great starters on their MLB roster. It doesn’t appear they have much sitting in AAA. I wouldn’t expect any of the 4 Marlins decent starters could be had for just Reed. Would a Reed for a AA starter be too cheap? They have a few guys who look to have a future in: Paul Mildren (L), Adam Bostick (L), and maybe Jose Garcia (R). I don’t know much about any of these guys other than they are young and have decent stats in AA this year. Could we get more for Reed?
This is about the dumest offseason plan I read so far.
Edmonds is old, and most likely done. How in the world is Todd Green, and Jose Cruz Jr. Going to help out our bench? Oswaldo Navarro better than Morse, I don’t think so. Manny Ramirez is also old and having some injury issues, he would also cost too much, and not worth giving up one of our stellar young arms. Fruto is not ready for the Majors yet, and neither is Eric O’Flaherty. R. Lopez, A. Guzman, C. Baek, T. Redding, how are they going to help out a limp pitching rotation? We Need Barry Zitos and Jason Jason Schmidts. One thing we do agree on, Daisuke Matsuzaka is a must sign.